1 00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:12,880 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keen with 2 00:00:13,560 --> 00:00:16,520 Speaker 1: David Gura. Daily we bring you insight from the best 3 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:22,279 Speaker 1: of economics, finance, investment, and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance 4 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and of course 5 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:34,199 Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg Rich Claida here with us in our 6 00:00:34,200 --> 00:00:37,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven three studios in the Ark of Columbia University, 7 00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:39,800 Speaker 1: UH and Pimpica. Let's start just by situating this decision 8 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 1: in the context of the UK economy at this point. 9 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:45,559 Speaker 1: Tell us a bit about what these policy makers were 10 00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:47,959 Speaker 1: chewing over. I think we were focused, certainly on how 11 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:50,199 Speaker 1: this vote would shake out. Would it be seven to 12 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:52,239 Speaker 1: two or six to three. We'll look at the tone 13 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:54,640 Speaker 1: of the statement here in just just a moment. But economically, 14 00:00:54,680 --> 00:00:57,000 Speaker 1: how do things look in the UK right now? Well, 15 00:00:57,000 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 1: I think economically what you see in the UK is 16 00:00:59,160 --> 00:01:01,720 Speaker 1: there has been a going in the UK economy compared 17 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:04,120 Speaker 1: to the trend before Brexit. But it hasn't been a 18 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:06,959 Speaker 1: train wreck. Uh. The economy is growing, you know, somewhere 19 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:09,920 Speaker 1: in the one to two percent range. Uh. The problem 20 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:12,759 Speaker 1: for the Bank of England, of course, there's huge Brexit uncertainty, 21 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:16,320 Speaker 1: and they've had a big depreciation of the pound, which 22 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:18,600 Speaker 1: is feeding through into the headline inflation rate. So the 23 00:01:18,680 --> 00:01:21,760 Speaker 1: challenge for them is, as Governor Carney says, they want 24 00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:23,840 Speaker 1: to think of this as a one off increase in 25 00:01:23,880 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 1: the price level from the exchange rate. The term of 26 00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:28,560 Speaker 1: art in central banking, David is they want to avoid 27 00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:32,400 Speaker 1: second round of facts, which means more inertia, UH and inflation. 28 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:35,399 Speaker 1: But at the same time they also are cognizant of 29 00:01:35,400 --> 00:01:38,360 Speaker 1: the fact that inflation is above their target and they 30 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:41,920 Speaker 1: don't want to be seen as being unaware of that. 31 00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:45,600 Speaker 1: Reading from the statement here, with the circumstances since the referendum, 32 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:48,400 Speaker 1: money you membership in the accompanying depreciation of sterling have 33 00:01:48,520 --> 00:01:51,280 Speaker 1: been exceptional. In the words of the the MPC monetary 34 00:01:51,320 --> 00:01:54,320 Speaker 1: policy cannot prevent either. The necessary real adjustment is the 35 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 1: United Kingdom moves towards its new international training arrangements or 36 00:01:57,720 --> 00:01:59,560 Speaker 1: the weaker real income growth that is likely to a 37 00:01:59,640 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 1: company the adjustment over the next few years. I mentioned 38 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:05,800 Speaker 1: that the way that this shook out, there there was 39 00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:07,400 Speaker 1: a sense here that maybe the chief economists might come 40 00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:09,519 Speaker 1: on board with with the hawks on on on the committee. 41 00:02:09,680 --> 00:02:11,519 Speaker 1: Are we starting to see some sort of shift, I 42 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:13,239 Speaker 1: mean a seismic shift here, but a shift among the 43 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 1: membership of this committee? I think we are. You know, 44 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 1: Andrew Halliday very respected, uh and really part of the 45 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:21,320 Speaker 1: He's a young guy who's been at the b o 46 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:24,200 Speaker 1: E for twenty years, and I do think he's been 47 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:28,679 Speaker 1: hinting uh that that he may tilt towards a rate hike. 48 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:30,640 Speaker 1: We did not get that today, but I would be 49 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:33,799 Speaker 1: watching him closely because so far, David, the people who 50 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:37,799 Speaker 1: supported higher rates have been the so called external members. Um. 51 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 1: Andy Halden is you know, clearly part of of the 52 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:43,119 Speaker 1: core groups. So were he'd a vote for a hike, 53 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:46,280 Speaker 1: that would be a very very significant signal that they're 54 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:48,839 Speaker 1: that they're going on that direction. But it hasn't happened yet. 55 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:51,200 Speaker 1: How big a risk here is a risk of an overshoot. 56 00:02:51,240 --> 00:02:53,800 Speaker 1: Of course, as you point out in a note, you 57 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:55,639 Speaker 1: overshoot the three percent mark. You got to send a 58 00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:59,520 Speaker 1: letter to Philip happened to explain why are we headed there? 59 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:01,200 Speaker 1: Do you think? Well? It could be. I mean the 60 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:04,240 Speaker 1: Bloomberg headline I see is boot b o E expects 61 00:03:04,639 --> 00:03:08,120 Speaker 1: inflation to exceed three in October. So as part of 62 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 1: their charter as inflation targeting, there's a formal requirement that 63 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 1: they send a public letter, so you've got to sort 64 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:17,519 Speaker 1: of publish it on Bloomberg and elsewhere, explaining why inflation 65 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:19,200 Speaker 1: is about three. I think in this case, if they 66 00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:21,400 Speaker 1: do exceed three, it won't be a hard letter to write. 67 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:24,680 Speaker 1: You simply say, look, Brexit is an unusual situation. We've 68 00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 1: got a big adjustment. It's fed through to inflation, but 69 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:29,520 Speaker 1: we don't expect it to continue. Have you ever had 70 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:33,520 Speaker 1: to write a letter to Pimcom management? I have, not 71 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:37,200 Speaker 1: about three percent, but about other things. Yeah, I could say, 72 00:03:37,240 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 1: good morning everyone, David Green, Tom Keenan a most eventful morning, 73 00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:44,120 Speaker 1: and of course a lot going on Washington, David. Some 74 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 1: the tweets that we've seen so far, it's been, what 75 00:03:47,040 --> 00:03:50,320 Speaker 1: a backtrack from this important dinner last night. Yeah. So 76 00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:53,200 Speaker 1: on the heels of that decision, Nancy Pelosian Chuck Schumers 77 00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:55,520 Speaker 1: seemed to indicate there was some agreement that the lantmakers 78 00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:57,680 Speaker 1: worked together on something to to keep the doc A 79 00:03:57,760 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 1: program in place, the President saying no deal was reached 80 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:02,800 Speaker 1: last night, the Present tweeting this morning about the wall 81 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 1: already under construction. Repairs are being made to the extant 82 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:07,800 Speaker 1: parts of the wall aroung the US Mexico border. And 83 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:10,360 Speaker 1: then he writes about Dacca. Does anybody really want to 84 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 1: throw out good, educated and accomplished young people of jobs, 85 00:04:12,760 --> 00:04:15,160 Speaker 1: some serving in the military. Really, He says that with 86 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 1: an expert across this nation, Professor Clarada, as you have 87 00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 1: done before, there are smart people like you talking to 88 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:26,520 Speaker 1: young cherubs at the undergraduate level and econ about the 89 00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:29,960 Speaker 1: most basics of basics. We're going to do that right now. Okay, 90 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:34,600 Speaker 1: what does immigration mean for the American economy, Well, it 91 00:04:34,640 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 1: has a lot of impacts on the economy. It increases 92 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:40,680 Speaker 1: the potential supply of labor, so that you know that 93 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:43,720 Speaker 1: that's good for the economy. On the other hand, immigration 94 00:04:43,880 --> 00:04:47,640 Speaker 1: can compete with existing US workers and can potentially have 95 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:49,960 Speaker 1: an impact on wages. Now that latter of fact has 96 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 1: been studied by labor economists. I'm not one, but certainly 97 00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:56,599 Speaker 1: I think that that that there's at least you know, 98 00:04:56,680 --> 00:04:58,760 Speaker 1: that is an issue that that there you know, and 99 00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:00,960 Speaker 1: everything in life is a trade, and with immigration, you 100 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:03,640 Speaker 1: get more labor, you get you get in some cases 101 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:06,680 Speaker 1: more educated labor, but there is an impact on wages 102 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:08,640 Speaker 1: as well that needs to be factored in. But I 103 00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:12,919 Speaker 1: would respectfully suggest that the political divide between Ed Lazier 104 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:17,160 Speaker 1: of Stanford and a guy named Krueger from Princeton is 105 00:05:17,200 --> 00:05:19,880 Speaker 1: a ven diagram of a lot of overlay that the 106 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:25,680 Speaker 1: politics of economists are on a common ground. Yeah, about immigration, 107 00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:30,000 Speaker 1: why is it the third rail of President Trump's Washington? Well, 108 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:32,360 Speaker 1: I think I think Tom that you know, more broadly, 109 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:33,960 Speaker 1: you have to look at the trends of the last 110 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 1: twenty years, and you're aware of them, and we're all 111 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:38,320 Speaker 1: aware of them. That and we've had economic growth in 112 00:05:38,360 --> 00:05:41,000 Speaker 1: the US, but it's not been it's not been you know, 113 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:44,360 Speaker 1: white and widely shared, and in particular, wages for less 114 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:48,680 Speaker 1: educated and and workers have not kept up with the economy. 115 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:51,000 Speaker 1: And so I think this is really part of technology, 116 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 1: trade and immigration. They're all working together in ways that 117 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:57,320 Speaker 1: are creating anxiety for a lot of America. Do people 118 00:05:57,720 --> 00:06:03,640 Speaker 1: like you understand that that interesting chemistry of technology, wages, 119 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:06,719 Speaker 1: immigration the spirit of the economy or is it a 120 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:08,600 Speaker 1: mystery that we're only going to learn about ten or 121 00:06:08,640 --> 00:06:11,560 Speaker 1: twenty years. Well, I think that's an excellent point. Because 122 00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:18,039 Speaker 1: I think unfortunately the economics profession devoted to little research attention, 123 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:21,200 Speaker 1: to uh TO to these issues, and I'm in particular 124 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:24,559 Speaker 1: I think in some ways the profession is playing catch 125 00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 1: up with regards and again it's very complicated because there 126 00:06:27,520 --> 00:06:31,000 Speaker 1: are elements of trade, technology and immigration that are impacting 127 00:06:31,080 --> 00:06:33,839 Speaker 1: labor markets and it's hard to sort out the independent effects. 128 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:36,800 Speaker 1: And David, this is a key insight of Begdon decide 129 00:06:36,839 --> 00:06:41,640 Speaker 1: of LLSE, as we underestimate within our models the tangible 130 00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:45,000 Speaker 1: complexities that are there each and every day. Of course, 131 00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:47,680 Speaker 1: they do that in spades in Washington. Let's look ahead 132 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:50,480 Speaker 1: the next week. This Fed Reserve Board meeting taking place 133 00:06:50,520 --> 00:06:52,520 Speaker 1: next week Tuesday and Wednesday, will be a press conference 134 00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:55,279 Speaker 1: to follow. I imagine there will be some questions about 135 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:57,280 Speaker 1: person eli Se if the FED chair answers them. But 136 00:06:57,360 --> 00:07:00,280 Speaker 1: certainly the departure of stand Fisher, the vice chair, just 137 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:01,600 Speaker 1: about a month from now, I think he said on 138 00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:04,480 Speaker 1: or around the thirteenth of October, does stand to change 139 00:07:04,520 --> 00:07:07,359 Speaker 1: this group of policy makers that even more dramatically. A 140 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:10,800 Speaker 1: lot of vacancies here, Yes, the FMC right now, what 141 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:12,760 Speaker 1: do you make of it? Well, there are a lot 142 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:16,680 Speaker 1: of vacancies um and um particular, you know Stan Fisher, 143 00:07:16,760 --> 00:07:19,920 Speaker 1: who was a professor of mine and and who have 144 00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:22,840 Speaker 1: admired for for decades, will be a big loss to 145 00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 1: the FED in particular. Speaking more narrowly, I think most folks, 146 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:30,560 Speaker 1: including myself sort of saw stand either at the center 147 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:32,680 Speaker 1: or perhaps maybe a little bit to the hawkish side 148 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:36,360 Speaker 1: of the committee. And to the extent that vote is 149 00:07:36,400 --> 00:07:39,320 Speaker 1: finally balanced than that I think does mean as we 150 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:42,120 Speaker 1: move in towards the December meeting and perhaps the next 151 00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:45,120 Speaker 1: ray hike will be discussed, you know, that is one 152 00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:47,800 Speaker 1: that's one voice that will be absent from the discussion, 153 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:50,200 Speaker 1: since it's very unlikely anyone will be reappointed by that. 154 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:53,920 Speaker 1: With your interesting perspective here, the textbook dorn Bush Fisher 155 00:07:54,080 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 1: Stars really doesn't have in it a forced standard deviation 156 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:04,280 Speaker 1: crisis stand for sure lived. How critical is it that 157 00:08:04,320 --> 00:08:07,560 Speaker 1: the new FED has to have a little bit of 158 00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:11,200 Speaker 1: a couple of people that have actually lived it instead 159 00:08:11,200 --> 00:08:14,560 Speaker 1: of studied it. No, I think I think that is important. 160 00:08:14,640 --> 00:08:17,200 Speaker 1: I think and and and obviously each crisis is different, 161 00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:20,000 Speaker 1: but that having that experience is important. Obviously. You know, 162 00:08:20,160 --> 00:08:23,120 Speaker 1: Cheri Yellin is still there, and she was certainly very 163 00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 1: experienced in the Federal Reserve system during the crisis as 164 00:08:28,360 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 1: as well. You've obviously Bill Dudley at the New York Fed, 165 00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:34,520 Speaker 1: so the Fed is not absent that experience, but certainly 166 00:08:34,520 --> 00:08:37,880 Speaker 1: losing stand is is UH is notable. I've got to 167 00:08:37,920 --> 00:08:40,280 Speaker 1: ask the journalist question, if you were called upon by 168 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:44,440 Speaker 1: the president, would you service chairman. I've not been called 169 00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:47,520 Speaker 1: upon by the president, but but obviously as a student 170 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:50,720 Speaker 1: of monetary UH policy, you know, obviously that's a very 171 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:53,560 Speaker 1: important job. But I've not been I've not been calling 172 00:08:53,840 --> 00:08:57,520 Speaker 1: dinner last night with the President. I was not Claire 173 00:08:57,559 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 1: to thank you so much for Columbia University and of 174 00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:04,120 Speaker 1: course with pimcoa truly one of the nation's leading theorists 175 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:09,160 Speaker 1: and applied theory within monetary economics. From New York. This 176 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:25,520 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg. Good morning, have you won Bloomberg Surveillance. We're 177 00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:27,680 Speaker 1: having a wonderful time here. What a great set of guests, 178 00:09:27,679 --> 00:09:31,400 Speaker 1: including just having Richard Clarida where this does does Mr 179 00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 1: Wolsy understand this is radio and he can't talk when 180 00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:35,920 Speaker 1: we're on here until least telling us. I was telling 181 00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:38,960 Speaker 1: him how I had to pick up Bailliots school driver 182 00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:44,080 Speaker 1: to soccer practice. He wanted to see. I know he 183 00:09:44,160 --> 00:09:46,520 Speaker 1: had three. He was the little league coach. So we 184 00:09:46,520 --> 00:09:50,560 Speaker 1: were treating war stories about you know, driving kids. All 185 00:09:49,360 --> 00:09:54,160 Speaker 1: of this is the real Bloomberg. David Garrow, why don't 186 00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:56,800 Speaker 1: you bring in the esteem James will Sixt, director of 187 00:09:56,800 --> 00:09:58,640 Speaker 1: the the CIA, here with us in our Bloomberg eleven 188 00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:01,240 Speaker 1: three studios in New York. And there's so many directions 189 00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:02,720 Speaker 1: we could go any but let's let's talk a bit 190 00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:05,240 Speaker 1: about North Korea. Obviously, we saw the latest round of 191 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:08,480 Speaker 1: u N sanctions a few weeks ago, and the Security 192 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:12,760 Speaker 1: Council meeting after a recent nuclear tests, or their diplomatic 193 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:15,880 Speaker 1: options available yet? Uh, you notice the change in rhetoric 194 00:10:15,920 --> 00:10:18,400 Speaker 1: from the South Koreans, who've been in favor of some 195 00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:21,720 Speaker 1: some diplomatic solution to this under their new president, starting 196 00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:23,719 Speaker 1: to erode some The timing might not be right there. 197 00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:25,920 Speaker 1: They're saying, what's the path forward? As you see it here? 198 00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:30,400 Speaker 1: I think there's only one diplomatic path forward. Theoretically there 199 00:10:30,400 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 1: could be to dealing with Russia and dealing with China, 200 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:37,600 Speaker 1: but Russia is nothing in here except troublemaker. Uh and 201 00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:41,319 Speaker 1: working for more and more dominance more and more of Eurasia. 202 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:46,840 Speaker 1: China is our only real shot. And the Chinese are 203 00:10:46,920 --> 00:10:51,520 Speaker 1: very cautious on this because they don't want anything war, 204 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 1: even disruption. They don't want a flow of refugees from 205 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:59,679 Speaker 1: North Korea into China, and they don't mind making us 206 00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:04,480 Speaker 1: a bit bugged by their foreign policy. So um, but 207 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:07,839 Speaker 1: they can be worked with. So if there is to 208 00:11:07,920 --> 00:11:11,160 Speaker 1: be a peaceful solution of this, it probably will involve 209 00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:17,319 Speaker 1: some very important work between the United States and China. 210 00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:19,920 Speaker 1: And uh, that's the only way I can see it 211 00:11:19,920 --> 00:11:22,800 Speaker 1: could come about without violence and your previous chomp imagine 212 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:24,440 Speaker 1: you had to to do a bit of reading people. 213 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:26,199 Speaker 1: And uh, when I look at Twitter and I see 214 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:27,760 Speaker 1: what the present tweets, you can read a bit of 215 00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:29,960 Speaker 1: emotion into a lot of of what he's tweeting about. 216 00:11:30,000 --> 00:11:31,920 Speaker 1: On the heels of that nuclear test, he talked about 217 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:35,360 Speaker 1: economic sanctions or changes to all countries doing business with 218 00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:38,920 Speaker 1: North Korea entirely. Of course, that would be China as well. 219 00:11:39,559 --> 00:11:42,520 Speaker 1: How how worried are you about the emotional reaction to 220 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:44,560 Speaker 1: things like this by the president in a public form 221 00:11:44,679 --> 00:11:48,960 Speaker 1: like Twitter. Well, we've been here before. In June of 222 00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:52,920 Speaker 1: sixty four, we had two destroyers off Vietnam, the Turner 223 00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:56,319 Speaker 1: Joy and the Maddox. One of them took a shot 224 00:11:56,400 --> 00:12:01,559 Speaker 1: around from the North Vietnamese and rested. Lynda Johnson said, 225 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:04,880 Speaker 1: you know, if they continue attacking us, we're going to 226 00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:07,960 Speaker 1: really let them have it. Our words to that effect. Um, 227 00:12:08,000 --> 00:12:11,440 Speaker 1: there was what it was first seemed to be another 228 00:12:11,760 --> 00:12:14,720 Speaker 1: round fired by the North Vietnamese. The next day turned 229 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:16,880 Speaker 1: out that was not the case. It was a radar 230 00:12:17,000 --> 00:12:22,720 Speaker 1: glitch or some kind. UM. But the President thought on 231 00:12:22,880 --> 00:12:26,199 Speaker 1: his first impression that North Vietnamese had attacked us again, 232 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:29,560 Speaker 1: And within three or four days the Tunking Golf resolution 233 00:12:29,600 --> 00:12:31,240 Speaker 1: had gone to the Congress and we were at war. 234 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:35,120 Speaker 1: We went to war by mistake in in Vietnam. Um. 235 00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:39,760 Speaker 1: And Uh, you don't want to make decisions on Twitter 236 00:12:39,840 --> 00:12:43,040 Speaker 1: in the middle of the night. UM. If you're going 237 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:47,640 Speaker 1: to do anything forceful, and especially if you're going to 238 00:12:47,679 --> 00:12:50,120 Speaker 1: go to war, UM, you want to get your best 239 00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:52,679 Speaker 1: advisors around you and take a bit of time and 240 00:12:52,720 --> 00:12:56,360 Speaker 1: consider this, and consider that, and and and have some 241 00:12:56,440 --> 00:13:00,360 Speaker 1: debate and discussion and research and so on. You you 242 00:13:00,440 --> 00:13:02,760 Speaker 1: don't want to jump the gun, so to speak. Last 243 00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:04,920 Speaker 1: question here about social media. There was a piece by 244 00:13:04,960 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 1: a Bloomberg reporter yesterday about Bob Mueller's investigation that he's 245 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:10,240 Speaker 1: going to train some of his focus here on the 246 00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:13,600 Speaker 1: role that social media played in influencing the the election. 247 00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:15,920 Speaker 1: Of course, Facebook admitted I think a hundred thousand dollars 248 00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:18,800 Speaker 1: was spent by Russian troll farms on on ads during 249 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:21,719 Speaker 1: the course of the campaign. Somebody in that piece said, 250 00:13:21,760 --> 00:13:25,200 Speaker 1: this is the soft underbelly of of counter intelligence these days, 251 00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:27,319 Speaker 1: that a country can do this without the U S 252 00:13:27,360 --> 00:13:29,360 Speaker 1: having much recourse. We're not prepared to deal with it. 253 00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:31,920 Speaker 1: How worried are you about the way that social media 254 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:34,520 Speaker 1: is being used to influence politics and policy. It's a 255 00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:38,680 Speaker 1: serious problem. Uh. It's not new that the Russians are 256 00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:41,720 Speaker 1: interfering in elections. They haven't had much opportunity and interfere 257 00:13:41,760 --> 00:13:45,199 Speaker 1: with ours. But because he had to cross an ocean 258 00:13:45,280 --> 00:13:47,640 Speaker 1: to do it, to smuggle an agent and to do 259 00:13:47,880 --> 00:13:51,679 Speaker 1: x or one and that kind of thing. Um. But um, 260 00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:56,520 Speaker 1: in what's new is cyber They can now attack and 261 00:13:57,000 --> 00:14:02,680 Speaker 1: uh draw down our stocks of information and interfere and 262 00:14:03,240 --> 00:14:06,760 Speaker 1: create a false uh news. As people say, all of 263 00:14:06,760 --> 00:14:09,719 Speaker 1: that um is very doable and the Russians are good 264 00:14:09,720 --> 00:14:14,320 Speaker 1: at it. So we are now not protected by our 265 00:14:14,559 --> 00:14:18,360 Speaker 1: two oceans as we are used to being protected. The 266 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:23,160 Speaker 1: cyber hackers don't care, and we have a serious, serious 267 00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:26,120 Speaker 1: problem on this never enough time. James Wilsey, thank you 268 00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:29,320 Speaker 1: so much. I got about ten more questions, so we'll 269 00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:32,480 Speaker 1: do that again next time. The former director of the CIA, 270 00:14:32,600 --> 00:14:35,240 Speaker 1: and of course at these important times, the news overnight 271 00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:51,000 Speaker 1: on North Korea. He was finished at Vanderbilt University. Why 272 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:54,000 Speaker 1: don't you bring in our next guest say? He began 273 00:14:54,040 --> 00:14:56,480 Speaker 1: there heading to head it off to Charlottesville after that 274 00:14:56,520 --> 00:14:58,520 Speaker 1: for a lot of green to Oxford after that. The 275 00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:01,640 Speaker 1: man from Centerville, Mississippi, uh Than Baton Rouge at parish, 276 00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:04,920 Speaker 1: representing Louisiana in the U. S. Senate alongside Bill Casti, 277 00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:07,680 Speaker 1: succeeding David Vittor in the US and he's been on 278 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:10,520 Speaker 1: the job here for about what eight nine months now. 279 00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:12,920 Speaker 1: Great to have with us, John Kennedy, Senator John Kennedy 280 00:15:12,920 --> 00:15:14,200 Speaker 1: on her phone line. Is great to have you with us. 281 00:15:14,240 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 1: Let me ask you a question. You're you're fairly new 282 00:15:15,960 --> 00:15:17,680 Speaker 1: to the job still, you just got back from a 283 00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:20,520 Speaker 1: in August recess. We're talking to your constituents back home 284 00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:23,960 Speaker 1: in Louisiana. What's uh. What surprised you the most about 285 00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:28,640 Speaker 1: this job since you started less than a year ago. Um, 286 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:32,080 Speaker 1: the pace. I have a pretty uh, I have a 287 00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:36,400 Speaker 1: pretty decent work ethic. But but I'm I'm a very 288 00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:38,840 Speaker 1: policy oriented and I like to do a lot of reading. 289 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:41,600 Speaker 1: And in my former job as state treasurer, I could 290 00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:44,960 Speaker 1: find during the time during the day to read. I 291 00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:47,240 Speaker 1: can't do it. Appear I had to do it at 292 00:15:47,520 --> 00:15:50,920 Speaker 1: nights on weekends. That I'm not I'm used to that. 293 00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:55,400 Speaker 1: But the other thing that has surprised me is about 294 00:15:55,840 --> 00:16:01,440 Speaker 1: is how how few lobbyists come in and I try 295 00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:04,000 Speaker 1: to meet with everyone within reason, but how few of 296 00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:07,160 Speaker 1: them come in and really seem to want you to 297 00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:10,760 Speaker 1: understand the issue. For many of them, it's almost like 298 00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:14,360 Speaker 1: just checking off a box. Okay, they've talked to Kennedy. 299 00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:17,880 Speaker 1: They start, they use a lot of acronyms. They start 300 00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:21,600 Speaker 1: at at in the weeds. I'd prefer to to start 301 00:16:21,640 --> 00:16:23,920 Speaker 1: at thirty feet and they can tell me how to 302 00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:26,080 Speaker 1: land the plane. Let it later, because they got to 303 00:16:26,080 --> 00:16:28,520 Speaker 1: get me in the plane and up in the air first. 304 00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:33,120 Speaker 1: And those have been my two biggest surprises. Um uh. 305 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:35,680 Speaker 1: The people I've met are in the Senate, I've met 306 00:16:35,800 --> 00:16:39,520 Speaker 1: all of my colleagues. Are a few jerks, um there 307 00:16:39,560 --> 00:16:42,400 Speaker 1: their one or their one or two that think they're 308 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:45,720 Speaker 1: one of the founding fathers. You know, you couldn't put 309 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:49,920 Speaker 1: the fifth ego. The capital barely contains there. But for 310 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:53,520 Speaker 1: the most part um that they're they've been all very cordial. Yeah, 311 00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:56,560 Speaker 1: they're interesting people. Hadn't met a Dumby yet. How fe 312 00:16:56,600 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 1: you found your way around the city. We've been paying attention, 313 00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:01,760 Speaker 1: of course, to the dinners. The president has been convening 314 00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:03,640 Speaker 1: at the White House, the one most recently with the 315 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:08,359 Speaker 1: Democratic leadership. What's your sense of the strength of that relationship, 316 00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:11,280 Speaker 1: the robustness of that relationship between the legislative branch and 317 00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:16,639 Speaker 1: the executive branch right now? Well, there's you know the 318 00:17:16,800 --> 00:17:21,480 Speaker 1: I'll paraphrase an old joke, A liberal or conservative and 319 00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:25,879 Speaker 1: a moderate walk into a bar and the bartender says, high, 320 00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:31,320 Speaker 1: President Trump, you don't really know exactly. I mean, the 321 00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:36,440 Speaker 1: President is less of an ideologue and more of a 322 00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:40,639 Speaker 1: business person. He's like a lot of business people that 323 00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:44,040 Speaker 1: I've known. He he's a developer. I mean, his objective 324 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:49,800 Speaker 1: is not to discuss the nuances of architecture. It's to 325 00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:52,879 Speaker 1: get something built. He hires people to handle the nuances 326 00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:57,280 Speaker 1: of the architecture. Um. I'm my meetings with him have 327 00:17:57,320 --> 00:18:02,200 Speaker 1: been very professional. Um, he's in the In the four 328 00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:04,040 Speaker 1: or five meetings I've been in with him, he knows 329 00:18:04,119 --> 00:18:06,879 Speaker 1: exactly what he's talking about, he knows what he wants. 330 00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:10,360 Speaker 1: He allows other people to talk. It doesn't bother me 331 00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:13,200 Speaker 1: that he is he is trying to work something out 332 00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:17,600 Speaker 1: with our friends on the Democratic side. I'm trying to 333 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:22,000 Speaker 1: work something out with him too. But the way pumping 334 00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:24,840 Speaker 1: out with him is do everything they want you to do. Siator. 335 00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:27,679 Speaker 1: One of the great joys of your work is you've 336 00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:32,119 Speaker 1: lived off the east coast, off the west coast of 337 00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:35,959 Speaker 1: this nation. Out of East Baton Rouge and Zachary High School. 338 00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:40,520 Speaker 1: You made headlines across all of Washington with your comparison 339 00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:44,600 Speaker 1: of six mayonnaises at the local convenience store in Washington, 340 00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:48,920 Speaker 1: d C. Versus the choices for the kids of Zachary 341 00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:53,439 Speaker 1: High School in Louisiana. How do we bring prosperity to 342 00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:58,679 Speaker 1: your Louisiana that you grew up with. Well, let me 343 00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:00,840 Speaker 1: say about my man he's coming. I'm minute, I'll double 344 00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:03,840 Speaker 1: down on it. I think it's an embarrassment to us 345 00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:07,560 Speaker 1: as Americans that as a parent, I have more choices 346 00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:09,680 Speaker 1: of mayonnaise and I do where to send my kid 347 00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:14,560 Speaker 1: to school. Um, And I think that's that's a sad commentary. 348 00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:18,440 Speaker 1: You prosperity, But the most important thing for America's prosperity 349 00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:21,760 Speaker 1: right now, in my opinion, is to improve the economy. 350 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:24,520 Speaker 1: And we've done everything we can do on the monetary side. 351 00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:27,600 Speaker 1: You're not going to get back to three growth unless 352 00:19:27,600 --> 00:19:30,480 Speaker 1: we do it on the fiscal side. The genesis of 353 00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:33,560 Speaker 1: most of the anger in America, I believe, is because 354 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:36,960 Speaker 1: middle class Americans like me look around. They see too 355 00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:41,080 Speaker 1: many undeserving people at the top getting bailouts. They see 356 00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:44,320 Speaker 1: too many undeserving people at the bottom getting handouts, and 357 00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:46,160 Speaker 1: the folks in the middle get the bill and they 358 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:48,600 Speaker 1: can't pay it anymore. In their way, just haven't gone up. 359 00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:52,399 Speaker 1: I'm fascinated. Mr Trump took fifty eight point one percent 360 00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:57,240 Speaker 1: of Louisiana's vote, Secretary Clinton thirty eight point How has 361 00:19:57,280 --> 00:19:59,679 Speaker 1: it changed when you go back and you're in the 362 00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:03,479 Speaker 1: or in you're you know, a pro at the Diner politics. 363 00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:07,320 Speaker 1: How is a Trump support changed in the Trump land 364 00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:14,800 Speaker 1: of Louisiana. I think, I think a small minority of 365 00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:18,680 Speaker 1: people in my state. Well, of course, some just don't 366 00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:21,520 Speaker 1: like him. Um, he didn't get a percent of the vote. 367 00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:26,639 Speaker 1: But but of of his supporters, a small minority or 368 00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:31,440 Speaker 1: find very curious the way he has approached the presidency. 369 00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:36,280 Speaker 1: But but a large number, probably the majority, of people 370 00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:40,840 Speaker 1: in my state are angry that more hasn't been done 371 00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:44,639 Speaker 1: in Washington. And they're not angry at the President about it. 372 00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:47,639 Speaker 1: They're angry at the universe United States Congress. Now you 373 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:50,399 Speaker 1: can debate whether that's fair or not, but I'm just 374 00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 1: telling you how they feel. Let me ask you about 375 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:55,000 Speaker 1: two two big issues in the news right now. Of course, 376 00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:58,440 Speaker 1: there's this big data breacher continuing to follow the ramifications 377 00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:00,560 Speaker 1: of that Equifax saying more than a hunter forty million 378 00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:03,240 Speaker 1: Americans may have had their data compromise. To know, that's 379 00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:05,800 Speaker 1: something that you and your constituents must be worried about. 380 00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:07,959 Speaker 1: Let me ask you about DACA as well, so we'll 381 00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:10,919 Speaker 1: take them each in kind. I wonder how you react 382 00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:13,119 Speaker 1: with the President's been tweeting this morning. If you if 383 00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:16,080 Speaker 1: you think this program needs to to stay in existence. 384 00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 1: And if you're optimistic here that the Congress is going 385 00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:21,760 Speaker 1: to do it, I think we do need to address 386 00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:25,440 Speaker 1: the doctor issue and the dreamers. I think we need 387 00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:28,880 Speaker 1: to address the whole immigration problem. There's been a fifteen 388 00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:33,920 Speaker 1: year bipartisan effort in UH in Washington to to pretend 389 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:37,159 Speaker 1: to care, but but this place is ignored our immigration laws. 390 00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:40,159 Speaker 1: I don't think though, that's even close to being the 391 00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:44,280 Speaker 1: most important topic on our plate. Tax reform is no question. 392 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:48,760 Speaker 1: Senator Brandon from Memphis, Tennessee emailed us in this morning 393 00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:52,120 Speaker 1: on Serious Next Time and loves listen to you out there. 394 00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:55,920 Speaker 1: Is it good that your president is taking dinner with 395 00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:59,600 Speaker 1: Speaker Pelosi and Senator Schumer from the Evil City of 396 00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:02,439 Speaker 1: New York work? You say your people want to get 397 00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:07,240 Speaker 1: things done. Isn't a bipartisan president breaking the eggshells of 398 00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:10,960 Speaker 1: Republican certitude? Is that a good thing for Senator Kennedy 399 00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:15,280 Speaker 1: of Louisiana. I'm I'm well, first, I don't think the 400 00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:17,960 Speaker 1: President is gonna check with me before he does the schedule. 401 00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:20,439 Speaker 1: But since you're asking my opinion, and I want to 402 00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:23,960 Speaker 1: be clear of the President hasn't asked my opinion. I 403 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:27,600 Speaker 1: think it's great. I mean, what's wrong with having I 404 00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:30,200 Speaker 1: don't know Miss Pelosi. I know I know Chuck a 405 00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:33,080 Speaker 1: little bit. He's he's an interesting guy. I don't agree 406 00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:37,320 Speaker 1: with him with on a damn thing. But how can 407 00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:39,800 Speaker 1: it hurt for them to talk now if the President 408 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:44,320 Speaker 1: starts giving away the store? Um, the way we negotiating 409 00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:47,760 Speaker 1: Louisiana is you get something and I get something really 410 00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:50,320 Speaker 1: I want, I want to make and I think that's 411 00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:53,719 Speaker 1: the way the President used to do his business deals. Um. 412 00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:57,440 Speaker 1: I mean, so far are my experience with our friends 413 00:22:57,440 --> 00:23:00,440 Speaker 1: and the Democratic side is it number one? They'll tell 414 00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:02,920 Speaker 1: you privately, Look, we'd like to work with you on this, 415 00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:06,320 Speaker 1: but we can't because our base is has white hot 416 00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:10,520 Speaker 1: anger at Donald Trump. We can't uh pretend to even 417 00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:13,960 Speaker 1: cooperate because we'll end up with a challenger in our primary. 418 00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:17,800 Speaker 1: And that's what the Republicans went through a few years 419 00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:20,560 Speaker 1: ago with the Tea Party. You can debate whether it 420 00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:23,359 Speaker 1: made this place better or worse, but that it is 421 00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:26,560 Speaker 1: what it is. And so far, I've had heard them 422 00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:30,640 Speaker 1: talk about by partisanship, but I haven't seen them do anything. 423 00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:32,960 Speaker 1: People around here talk a lot, so I've learned. You 424 00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:35,919 Speaker 1: got to watch what they know. Senator Kennedy, thank you 425 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:38,399 Speaker 1: so much. We look forward to speaking but you you again, 426 00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:41,200 Speaker 1: and of course with our David Gura and his television 427 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:46,040 Speaker 1: showing politics and of course from studios in Washington. He 428 00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:49,920 Speaker 1: is John Neely Kennedy and he is from Louisiana. David, 429 00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:51,800 Speaker 1: that was a joy. It was a joy. And you 430 00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:53,680 Speaker 1: know I went into that eager to get that. That 431 00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:56,280 Speaker 1: unique perspective he has is that one of the newest 432 00:23:56,280 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 1: members of the Senate. He delivered. We got some good perspective. 433 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:03,080 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening Coast to coast particular, thanks gentlemen Memphis 434 00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:07,720 Speaker 1: listening on Sarah Sex. I'm greatly appreciate that this is Bloomberg. 435 00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:21,920 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillas podcast. Subscribe and 436 00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:27,320 Speaker 1: listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast 437 00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:30,960 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene. David 438 00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:35,200 Speaker 1: Gura is at David Gura. Before the podcast, you could 439 00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:38,320 Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio.