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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: It's good to.

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Speaker 1: The winds without further ado.

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Speaker 2: That's what the game's all about.

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Speaker 1: All of a sudden, you feel like you can't miss.

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Speaker 2: I could make if you try that to get absolutely

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Speaker 2: trying to.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast NBA Draft Edition. I'm

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Speaker 3: Matt Morrison, your NBA writer, joined as always on our

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Speaker 3: NBA editions by Brandon Anderson and Raheem Palmer. We're gonna

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Speaker 3: be taking you through the NBA Draft. All the props,

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Speaker 3: everything available. Everything that we're talking about is however, available

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Speaker 3: on the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: App, which you should check out. We've got prop stuff.

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Speaker 3: I will have my final props board up later today.

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Speaker 3: Recording this on Wednesday, I'll have that up for you

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Speaker 3: to get your bets in. I've already bet a lot

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Speaker 3: I've been betting over the last month or so. Today's

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Speaker 3: odds are provided you by bet mgm, the official OS

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Speaker 3: provider of the Action Network podcast. Most of the odds

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Speaker 3: we will talk about are available at bet mgm, unless

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Speaker 3: otherwise noted. Before we do that, however, heads up, several

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Speaker 3: new podcasts are debuting next week from the Action Network,

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Speaker 3: including one dedicated just for NBA betting.

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Speaker 1: So to hear me and the rest.

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Speaker 3: Of our crew going forward, you need to subscribe to

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Speaker 3: a new podcast debuting next week.

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Speaker 1: It'll be called Buckets, but we'll.

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Speaker 3: Announce and make that official announcement right here on the

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Speaker 3: Action Network podcast feed next week, and we'll get you

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Speaker 3: guys a link so you can subscribe and not miss

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Speaker 3: an episode.

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Speaker 1: Stay tuned, you can hear the chatter from the crowd.

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Speaker 3: Raheem does not pay attention to college basketball and is

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Speaker 3: too busy prepping for NFL and having to sweat his

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Speaker 3: Broncos overticket as I tried to warn him off fervently

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Speaker 3: after he'd already done it, which doesn't really make any sense,

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Speaker 3: but I try to do that anyway. He's not really

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Speaker 3: worried about it.

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Speaker 1: He feels confident their defense is going to be good.

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Speaker 1: They're not going to be there be trash Chiefs fans.

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Speaker 3: But anyway, Rahiem and I are gonna and Brandon and

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Speaker 3: I were gonna talk about the NBA season wrap up.

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Speaker 3: We never got a chance to kind of wrap up

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Speaker 3: after the finals. Milwaukee Bucks, Congratulations to the NBA champions.

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Speaker 3: Congratulations to us for having uh properly managed our futures

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Speaker 3: bets to come out ahead in most cases, including Raheem,

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Speaker 3: who was on the Bucks after game two.

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Speaker 4: I wasn't on the mafter game two. I'm gonna I'm

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Speaker 4: not even gonna lie to you. I didn't figure it

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Speaker 4: out until game four. Like I lost a lot of

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Speaker 4: money on game.

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Speaker 1: For the series. Yeah, it kind of actually ruined me.

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Speaker 4: I had a lot of money on the Sons Game four,

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Speaker 4: and then that's when it hit me like, Yo, this

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Speaker 4: is Raptors Bucks.

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Speaker 3: But you were you were up big from the conference semifinals.

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Speaker 3: So you've done You've done well.

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Speaker 1: Let's let's start here, all right.

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Speaker 3: So the final four teams from twenty twenty in the bubble,

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Speaker 3: all of them go out.

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Speaker 1: Three of them go out in the first round. The

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Speaker 1: other one gets in the second, which.

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Speaker 3: Has led to the idea of, like, you know, maybe

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Speaker 3: that was just like a fluke situation, and I think

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Speaker 3: that there's like I personally think there's probably some validity

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Speaker 3: to that. I don't think there's it's entirely I don't

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Speaker 3: think it's like the Lakers aren't actually good. I think

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Speaker 3: the Lakers are actually good, but they were so dominant

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Speaker 3: because inside the bubble Anthony Davis one stayed healthy after

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Speaker 3: three months off and two shot the lights out from

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Speaker 3: on his jumper, which doesn't always happen. I think the

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Speaker 3: heat got hot, no pun intended. I think that they

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Speaker 3: had the right series and matchups and the Celtics kind

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Speaker 3: of imploded in that conference final series and that's how

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Speaker 3: they made their run. And I think that they're not

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Speaker 3: as good, especially after they lost j Crowder. I think

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Speaker 3: that that really knocked them down. I think Crowder was

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Speaker 3: a big part.

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Speaker 1: Of that run.

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Speaker 3: The Nuggets are one I can't really I can't really

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Speaker 3: tell on they're in the I have not decided. I

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Speaker 3: think the Celtics were good. I think the Celtics had

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Speaker 3: a down year this season. It's kind of where I'm at.

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Speaker 3: But my question for you, Rahimla start with you if

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Speaker 3: you're gonna if we're gonna say you have to take

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Speaker 3: the last two seasons with a grain of salt because

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Speaker 3: of the pandemic, which I think is fair.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, which one do you.

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Speaker 3: Think has the bigger or more grains of salt. Do

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Speaker 3: you think it's the bubble and all the weirdness that

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Speaker 3: occurred in there after a fairly normal start of the season,

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Speaker 3: or last year with COVID interruptions, exhaustion, a really terrible schedule,

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Speaker 3: injuries and everything else.

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Speaker 4: I definitely think it's last year. You have to take

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Speaker 4: that more with the granted salt, because you know, everybody

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Speaker 4: was hurt. I mean, if you look at James Harden,

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Speaker 4: James Harden is one of the most durable players of

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Speaker 4: all time, him and Lebron James, and both of them

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Speaker 4: went down. The Celtics they never like the Celtics to me,

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Speaker 4: were never they never had a shot from I mean

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Speaker 4: Game one. You know, they were suffering injuries, COVID absences.

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Speaker 4: It's just everybody went down and this was this was

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Speaker 4: the ultimate war of attrition, you know, at least in

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Speaker 4: the bubble, you know. I think there were some mental

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Speaker 4: health aspects to you know, why teams slipped, But for

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Speaker 4: the most part, you know, everybody was on a level

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Speaker 4: playing field. You can't say the same about this year

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Speaker 4: as far as everybody being on a level playing field.

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Speaker 4: So I'm taking this year with the more of a

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Speaker 4: grain of salt. But I do think you know, a

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Speaker 4: team like the Bucks, they earned it. So I don't

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Speaker 4: want to you know, I don't I don't want to

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Speaker 4: disregard their championship because I feel like, you know, the

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Speaker 4: Bucks were never the same once they entered the bubble,

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Speaker 4: like they kind of lost that momentum, and this year

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Speaker 4: they didn't have that momentum taken away from Brandon.

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Speaker 2: What do you thoughts, Yeah, I don't know. I I

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Speaker 2: agree that the injuries this year just piled up so

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Speaker 2: much that we ended up it felt like, you know,

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Speaker 2: it felt like we ended up with the two teams

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Speaker 2: in the finals that just outlasted everyone else in someone

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Speaker 2: And again that doesn't take away from it. You got

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Speaker 2: to still win the games and credit both of them.

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Speaker 2: Phoenix survived a series in the first round with Chris

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Speaker 2: Paul hurt. The Bucks survived Yannis being hurt in the

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Speaker 2: conference finals and won two games to make the finals.

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Speaker 2: So you absolutely get credit for winning without your stars

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Speaker 2: some of the most. None of the other teams won

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Speaker 2: without their stars. That's the whole point. That's why they're

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Speaker 2: in the finals. So you get credit for that. It

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Speaker 2: just that there were so many injuries. I think though

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Speaker 2: last year had had more grains of salt to me,

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Speaker 2: just because like this year, there were so many injuries.

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Speaker 2: But that could happen any year, and for sure it

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Speaker 2: seems like the injuries this year tied to the condemned schedule,

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Speaker 2: the pandemic, all of that. Like, it's hard to on

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Speaker 2: couple of those things. But any year we get enter

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Speaker 2: the playoffs and see, you know, the ones you lose

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Speaker 2: their star. You know, we can think of a lot

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Speaker 2: of examples where that's happened. Every playoff has its own

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Speaker 2: asterisk of the big injury or the luck or the

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Speaker 2: tip or whatever. This year, the asterisks or whatever you

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Speaker 2: want to call them, seem a little bigger. But I

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Speaker 2: felt like last year had so many more big grains

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Speaker 2: of salt that were affecting things. Things like you said,

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Speaker 2: like like some of the mental health things in the bubble,

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Speaker 2: the social unrest that was happening. It was literally a

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Speaker 2: strike or like a in the middle of the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: We stopped playing and then kept going again a couple

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Speaker 2: of days later. And I don't think we have any

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Speaker 2: idea to understand like how that affected some teams differently

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Speaker 2: than others, and how it affected the players and the coaches.

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Speaker 2: They're just there was so much more last year. I

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Speaker 2: don't think either one of them are an asterisk. Last

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Speaker 2: year is what it was this year is what it was.

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Speaker 2: We have two champs and they earned it. You know,

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Speaker 2: it's it. They played what was put before them and

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Speaker 2: they won the title. So I I guess to me,

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Speaker 2: I feel like like I like to think of it

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Speaker 2: as Okay, it's the end of the playoffs and we

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Speaker 2: have there's no way to know what the injuries would

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Speaker 2: have been or what might have been. Otherwise we can speculate,

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Speaker 2: we can kind of guess, but knowing what we know now,

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Speaker 2: if you look back, knowing everything you know now but

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Speaker 2: not the injuries, it's the start of the playoffs, but

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Speaker 2: you've now seen this possible future timeline. It's the new

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Speaker 2: start of this year's playoffs. Would you still pick the

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Speaker 2: Bucks or the Suns to make the finals? Because I

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Speaker 2: think I still wouldn't And it doesn't mean that that

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Speaker 2: takes away from what they did. I just don't think

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Speaker 2: that even with the things I saw, they were better

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Speaker 2: than I thought they would be. I just am not

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Speaker 2: sure it's still to pick them. I think the injuries

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Speaker 2: played a huge role on both sides.

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Speaker 1: Here's the bigger question.

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Speaker 3: It's not a redoing this when we can't make money

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Speaker 3: off what's already done.

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Speaker 1: Brandon.

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Speaker 3: The bigger question is does winning the title fundamentally shift

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Speaker 3: who they are because a lot of times the team

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Speaker 3: wins a title and that the confidence and what they

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Speaker 3: learned from that process opens up new stuff. Like I

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Speaker 3: had the Bucks on my top five props for now,

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Speaker 3: I've already bet the five that are on my list.

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Speaker 3: I bet Nuggets, I bet Warriors, I bet Mavericks, I

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Speaker 3: bet I bet Bucks a plus eight fifty.

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Speaker 1: I think there's value there, not a lot.

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Speaker 5: I think there's value there as well.

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Speaker 3: So that's kind of question, is like it's I do

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Speaker 3: I'm with you, Brandon in terms of coming back and

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Speaker 3: being like yeah, but but James Harden and Kyrie are

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Speaker 3: like they went seven with no Harden and no Kyrie

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Speaker 3: like brand here. Here's here's a bigger question is like,

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Speaker 3: is there anybody we see free agency? There's always crazy

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Speaker 3: stuff that can happen, but right now, is there a

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Speaker 3: team outside of Brooklyn that you think beats the Bucks?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean when you posted your futures column, and

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Speaker 2: I guess my takeaway from what I was saying is

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Speaker 2: kind of I think the opposite a little bit of

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Speaker 2: your takeaway, which is my response to your Futures column,

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Speaker 2: I wrote you, I said, you know, just just let

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Speaker 2: me all my five units on the nets. I just

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Speaker 2: feel like, like I feel like I'm looking at the nets.

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Speaker 2: We saw how it played out. The guys got hurt,

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Speaker 2: but it sure was looking inevitable right up until the

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Speaker 2: guys got hurt. It sure looked like we all sort

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Speaker 2: of had that feeling of like, oh man, how did

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Speaker 2: we not just see that this was just going to happen.

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Speaker 2: There's so much it was literally, oh my god, I'm sorry. Yeah, true,

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Speaker 2: that's right. I feel like it's the Nets, and if

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Speaker 2: it's not the Nets, then it's the Lakers because of

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Speaker 2: the same thing. It's just it's overwhelming superstar talent, and

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Speaker 2: that's what happens in the NBA unless the overwhelming superstar

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Speaker 2: talent gets hurt.

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Speaker 3: I'll say this, I have liked the Bucks matchup versus

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Speaker 3: the Lakers the last two seasons. If the Bucks had

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Speaker 3: not gotten knocked off by the Heat, I would have

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Speaker 3: loved them in the finals matchup versus the Lakers. How

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Speaker 3: the Lakers want to beat you. They want to beat

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Speaker 3: you with size side and size and defense. The Bucks

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Speaker 3: are basically okay. How about if we're just as big

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Speaker 3: as you, only we're not one hundred years old and

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Speaker 3: we're not completely brittle. Like I don't like the idea

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Speaker 3: of Anthony Davis going up against that physicality.

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Speaker 1: Don't like it at all. I don't like the idea.

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Speaker 3: Like as bad as I talked about the buck Shooters,

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Speaker 3: they finally came through. Like this is a lot of

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Speaker 3: it for me, is like the buck Shooters finally came

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Speaker 3: through rahem, Like they finally made made shots that they

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Speaker 3: needed to.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, it was so funny.

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Speaker 4: The I didn't mean to cut Brandon off, but that

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Speaker 4: NETS series was inevitable up until the time when Bruce

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Speaker 4: Brown Bruce Brown bowling based I mean not bowing. Bruce

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Speaker 4: Brown basically decided that he was going to close out

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Speaker 4: the game with floaters, Like if Kevin Durant or Kyrie

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Speaker 4: Irvin takes those shots, I mean, we're looking at nets

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Speaker 4: in the finals.

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Speaker 3: So here's here's my one caveat and like, look, there

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Speaker 3: will be a time to bet the nets. I don't

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Speaker 3: think it's now, agree Like I think the numbers bad

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Speaker 3: now they're the lowest on the board, Like the nets

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Speaker 3: are plus two twenty five. We are a year away

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Speaker 3: from the finals and they're plus two twenty five. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: like that's a like they have I get it because

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Speaker 3: the books are basically like, we don't want your Nets

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Speaker 3: money now, like we don't want it now. We know

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Speaker 3: how favored they are, and I get that, but that

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Speaker 3: number is bad. We will build a Nets position over

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Speaker 3: the next year on our podcast.

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Speaker 1: That's the thing we will do.

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Speaker 4: I think that's something that you've always been good at,

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Speaker 4: Like you've been good at building positions and knowing when

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Speaker 4: to take you know, teams that you know our favorite

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Speaker 4: and hitting them on the down spots. It's almost like,

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Speaker 4: you know, Rali Bob Volgaris, he was able to get

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Speaker 4: the Shaq and kolbe Lakers at like like six to

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Speaker 4: six to one when they were.

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Speaker 1: In the middle of turmoil. So I think you have

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Speaker 1: to kind of wait for those spots.

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Speaker 3: Right, So you're just trying to build it up so

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Speaker 3: there'll be a time about the Nets. Here's my one

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Speaker 3: caveat with the Nets. Kyrie Irving has had one healthy

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Speaker 3: season over the last six years.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Katie had a whole bunch of stuff last.

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Speaker 2: Year, and we know that guy's coming off the Olympics.

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Speaker 2: That it's it's not great, and we're on this like

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Speaker 2: extended long season and then no off season for him.

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Speaker 1: Like came good.

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Speaker 4: The NBA just came out with some news saying that

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Speaker 4: they're basically, you know, they're gonna stop calling all of

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Speaker 4: these fouls. So maybe Harten is a different player next year.

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Speaker 3: All right, So all of this I think combines where

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Speaker 3: I think we'll be on when the wind totals come out,

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Speaker 3: We're going to be on the Nets over. I think

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Speaker 3: depending on what they do in free agent and free agency,

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Speaker 3: I think we'll probably be on the over.

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Speaker 2: I actually think that I will be on the under

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Speaker 2: because I feel like I feel like I'm looking at

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Speaker 2: the Nets regular season as just a throwaway.

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Speaker 1: Here's a problem.

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Speaker 2: The games out hard and sets them out.

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Speaker 3: They literally didn't have this year, Brandon, where they still

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Speaker 3: wind up with two seeds.

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Speaker 1: That's my problem is like they were so good this year.

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Speaker 3: No team cared less about the regular season than the

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Speaker 3: Brooklyn Nets, and they still wound up with the two seed.

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Speaker 3: So like, I think we got to take the over,

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Speaker 3: and I don't think that the title BET's gonna be bad.

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Speaker 1: We just got to wait for the number.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, all right, let's wrap this up and move

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Speaker 3: to some NBA draft props. Raheem's gonna bounce, Rahiem, you

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Speaker 3: just are. Raheem's great work on NFL coverage as well

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Speaker 3: as boxing, and I think.

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Speaker 5: Next year you guys have inspired me.

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna start doing some draft stuff because I see

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Speaker 4: I have to actually pay attention to college basketball.

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Speaker 3: All right, you can catch Raheem on the Action Network.

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00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:37,000
Speaker 3: You can follow his picks there as well as you

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Speaker 3: can catch him on Twitter as well. In the episode

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Speaker 3: of description. Thanks for joining us, Raheem, and we'll talk

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Speaker 3: to you guys again. We'll talk to you again soon

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Speaker 3: and we'll do some NFL NBA draft props.

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Speaker 5: This is Action Network podcast producer Matt Mitchell here to

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Speaker 6: Thanks for listening.

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Speaker 5: Now back to the show.

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Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson is the NBA Draft time. My head is spinning.

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Speaker 3: So last year I did really well on draft props.

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Speaker 3: I took Kelly and Hayes under ten. I took Cole

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Speaker 3: Anthony under twenty. My draft props we went I think

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Speaker 3: four and one last year. Uh and it was great

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00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:36,720
Speaker 3: and I felt very good about it. That inspired me

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Speaker 3: to go deeper. And now I'm concerned because I think

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Speaker 3: I've gone I think I'm in that. Oh no, I've

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Speaker 3: gone too far, Like I've I have a lot of

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Speaker 3: props out there that I've already bet. I will write

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Speaker 3: up the ones I like the most. On Action, I

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Speaker 3: have a lot of information based off of talking to

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Speaker 3: tele Intel. Before we get started, I want to kind

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Speaker 3: of explain my process. Brandon has done a series of

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Speaker 3: really great in depth profiles of the draft prospects.

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Speaker 1: If you want to know more by who these guys are, go.

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Speaker 3: To actionetwork dot com or the Action Network app and

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00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:06,200
Speaker 3: just find they'll be all over the pages in terms

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Speaker 3: of they'll be profiles from Brandon on a lot of

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Speaker 3: the major prospects. Deep dives is really great information. We

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Speaker 3: want to talk about how to bet this NBA draft.

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Speaker 3: My intel, or my process rather is I'm trying to synthesize.

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Speaker 1: A couple of things.

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Speaker 3: One is what I've heard from the league, like from

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Speaker 3: people there around the league, and what they expect. A

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Speaker 3: lot of that is not this team told me that

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Speaker 3: they like X, because teams don't do that, like that

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00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:39,040
Speaker 3: is not a thing because they want to keep it

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Speaker 3: as secret as possible. But what you will hear is

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00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:45,680
Speaker 3: teams are like based off of whatever intel that they've gathered,

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Speaker 3: they have penciled in, you know, said team to go

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Speaker 3: here or wherever.

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Speaker 1: Some of this is generated by agents.

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Speaker 3: I'm not gonna lie that agents have a big part

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Speaker 3: of this process in terms of influencing.

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Speaker 1: What I hear.

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Speaker 3: Okay, not that I'm talking to agents, but like they

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Speaker 3: will say things and they get tod there is noise

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Speaker 3: and you're trying to sort out rumor from legit, and

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Speaker 3: that has risks. I try and synthesize that with what

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Speaker 3: mock drafts from guys that do actual draft consulting do.

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Speaker 3: For some of the teams, and there's a very select

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Speaker 3: few that I kind of rely on for that.

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Speaker 1: Brandon and I are going to.

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Speaker 3: Talk about best fits, about the logic of all these. Brandon,

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00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:29,200
Speaker 3: let's start the top. Okay at bet MGM right now,

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00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:33,439
Speaker 3: Caid to go number one is minus five thousand, so

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00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:36,919
Speaker 3: not great value to take the number one pick for

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Speaker 3: Kaid Cunningham based off of.

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Speaker 1: Anything that we have seen or heard.

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Speaker 3: Is there anyone else that you would want to bet

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Speaker 3: at number one because you like the long shots?

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Speaker 2: I know, yeah, there's definitely no one else I want

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Speaker 2: to bet at number one. I think Kid Cunningham is

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Speaker 2: going to go number one if it's possible. Maybe maybe

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00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:04,840
Speaker 2: that Cunningham goes number one, not to Detroit. Maybe someone

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Speaker 2: else does make the trade up with Detroit, but if

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Speaker 2: they do, it's gonna be for Kid. So I don't

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Speaker 2: see a scenario where Detroit sticks at number one and

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Speaker 2: does not select Caid Cunningham. If they do choose, he's

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Speaker 2: not their guy, maybe I don't buy it, but if

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Speaker 2: they do, I think it has to be on a

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Speaker 2: move down. So I definitely want no part, not of

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00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:28,840
Speaker 2: betting on anything except Cunningham, and I'm not betting on

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00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:31,160
Speaker 2: him either five thousand, no, thank you.

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00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:39,840
Speaker 1: He's plus thirty five hundred to go number two, right.

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00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:41,960
Speaker 2: I mean, that's that's the flip side. If you want

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00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:43,879
Speaker 2: to play it, that's the angle. If you want to

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00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:47,600
Speaker 2: just play, play the possibility. If you're a Pistons fan

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Speaker 2: and you're a sports nihilist like me, and you're locked

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Speaker 2: in on Cunningham and just like worried it's not gonna happen,

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Speaker 2: that's your angle. Make a few bucks off of it

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00:19:55,359 --> 00:19:59,720
Speaker 2: at least. So I don't mind that play just because, Okay,

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00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:01,520
Speaker 2: what a is that like a three percent chance? Is

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00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:04,480
Speaker 2: there a three percent chance of the Pistons just think

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Speaker 2: that they're the Celtics and they've evaluated and decided that

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00:20:07,800 --> 00:20:11,080
Speaker 2: they found their tatum while everyone else has their faults. Yeah, sure,

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Speaker 2: there's a three percent chance of that. Son. I don't

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Speaker 2: mind that, but I think he'll be kid.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So here's my thought on it.

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Speaker 3: After the lottery, I said, I wrote this, and I

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Speaker 3: tweeted it.

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Speaker 1: I said, I can't.

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Speaker 3: Wait for Kay Cunningham to be the number one pick

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00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:30,760
Speaker 3: every single week until the last week before the draft,

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Speaker 3: and then suddenly it's well, but maybe he's not number one,

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Speaker 3: and then he goes number one. So that's like the

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Speaker 3: big picture view, but then there's trapped in the moment

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Speaker 3: me that has heard that the Pistons have the here's

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Speaker 3: the biggest thing is just the well, there's two things here.

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Speaker 3: If it was that Kate Is is a number one lock,

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Speaker 3: He's going to be a franchise superstar, He's Luka Doncic,

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Speaker 3: it would be different.

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Speaker 1: I talked to.

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Speaker 3: Guys that work at analytics for teams and they both

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Speaker 3: told me that Kid does not grade out as well

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Speaker 3: as he's projected. That it's basically like, no, yeah, like,

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Speaker 3: Kid's gonna be great, I mean a superstar. It's gonna

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Speaker 3: be great, but not gonna be a superstar because the

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Speaker 3: production isn't there, even when you factor for his teammates

437
00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:24,600
Speaker 3: at okay stake. So it's like there are scouts that

438
00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:26,679
Speaker 3: agree with that assessment. Not all of them, but there

439
00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:30,000
Speaker 3: are scouts that agree with that assessment that no, yeah,

440
00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:32,160
Speaker 3: Kid's gonna be a really good player that helps you win,

441
00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:34,479
Speaker 3: but he's not going to be a give him the

442
00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:39,960
Speaker 3: ball yeah on hundred, like for eighty possessions a game, right, yeah?

443
00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:40,600
Speaker 2: Agree?

444
00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:43,879
Speaker 3: So or for you know, forty possessions a game. So

445
00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:47,200
Speaker 3: if that's the thought process, that opens up enough of

446
00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:48,520
Speaker 3: the thing where.

447
00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:55,040
Speaker 1: I can see either them trading the pick.

448
00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:58,280
Speaker 3: But in that case, he still goes number one, right,

449
00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:01,639
Speaker 3: or they talk themselves into Jalen Green.

450
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,160
Speaker 1: There's a lot. Look, there are a lot of people that.

451
00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:06,919
Speaker 3: Think Evan Mobley is the best player in the draft

452
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:11,119
Speaker 3: like that. It is a yeah, it is a not

453
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:15,440
Speaker 3: insignificant amount of people that think that Evan Mobley as

454
00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:19,840
Speaker 3: much as it's like really a big He's switchable, he's versatile,

455
00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:22,200
Speaker 3: like he checks all the boxes for a modern wing.

456
00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:27,920
Speaker 3: I will look, I'll just I'll go ahead and say

457
00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 3: I've bet Kate on a flyer at thirty five to one.

458
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:36,080
Speaker 3: I haven't, Like, I'm not sitting here telling you I

459
00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 3: love this pic.

460
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:38,679
Speaker 1: It's my lock of the day, Like we don't do

461
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:40,679
Speaker 1: that here at action. But I'm not.

462
00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:43,000
Speaker 3: I am not going to write Kate in my props

463
00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:47,480
Speaker 3: article I bet him number two because I don't see

464
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:51,160
Speaker 3: any scenario, like there are two ways that this goes.

465
00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 3: A team trades up and takes somebody else, which is unlikely,

466
00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:00,480
Speaker 3: or and then the pisson just take ca anyway, Like

467
00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:01,919
Speaker 3: if somebody says like, hey, we want to trade up

468
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:03,320
Speaker 3: and we want to take you know, mobilely number one

469
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:05,119
Speaker 3: for some reason. I don't know why, but if they

470
00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:09,240
Speaker 3: want to do that, right right, because like think of

471
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:10,800
Speaker 3: it that way. If somebody told you.

472
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:14,400
Speaker 1: That you could do that, you can.

473
00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:16,080
Speaker 3: Here's the thing is, if you could get assets and

474
00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:17,399
Speaker 3: you don't think the kid is a guy, then you

475
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:20,320
Speaker 3: can do that deal. If he falls at two and

476
00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:21,879
Speaker 3: the Rockets are still there, the Rockets are going to

477
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 3: take him, that's it.

478
00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:25,080
Speaker 1: But there's there's no scenario.

479
00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:27,159
Speaker 3: That the Rockets do not take him at two, and

480
00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:29,200
Speaker 3: if he is there, the Rockets will not trade out

481
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:31,400
Speaker 3: of the two spot, like they will wait to see

482
00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:33,480
Speaker 3: if Kid doesn't go number one and then take Kate

483
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:36,560
Speaker 3: to two. That's how much they like Kid, right, So

484
00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:38,760
Speaker 3: if I know Kate is going to go is going

485
00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:40,560
Speaker 3: to go top two, I don't have any risk of

486
00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:41,680
Speaker 3: him falling.

487
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 1: To me at thirty five to one.

488
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:49,960
Speaker 3: It was worth it, the intel, Brandon says the order.

489
00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:51,440
Speaker 1: This is what the the.

490
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:53,919
Speaker 3: Consensus is amongst people I have talked to him, and

491
00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:56,399
Speaker 3: this is this is reflected in the drafts, like the

492
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:58,840
Speaker 3: mock drafts are all like this because that information at

493
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 3: the top is public enough. It's Cad Jalen Green, Evan

494
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 3: Mobley did the Calves, Jalen Suggs at the Raptors, Scottie Barnes.

495
00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:10,960
Speaker 1: To the Magic, that's the top five.

496
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:15,920
Speaker 3: Kaminga is still listed in there, which I think is weird,

497
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:17,919
Speaker 3: Like he was number five on the initial boards and

498
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 3: that was you and I were just like we were

499
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:23,120
Speaker 3: salivating trying to get a Kamenica prop on the board

500
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:26,640
Speaker 3: so we could bet the over. Kaminga is not on

501
00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:29,720
Speaker 3: the board for props at that MGM, which is frustrating.

502
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:34,520
Speaker 3: I have bet him at other places, however, at five

503
00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:39,639
Speaker 3: and a half and six and a half over Barnes.

504
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:45,680
Speaker 3: On the other hand, you know he's he's plus two

505
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:47,080
Speaker 3: twenty five to go fourth.

506
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:50,199
Speaker 1: Yeah, what's your give me?

507
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:51,840
Speaker 3: I want to hear your take. Yeah, I don't know

508
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 3: if you've done a profile on him. Give me your

509
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:55,280
Speaker 3: your breakdown on Scotty Barnes.

510
00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:58,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I did. I just had a profile on him

511
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:00,159
Speaker 2: just yesterday. He's the last one that I'm doing, I

512
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:05,560
Speaker 2: think so I on the night that the lottery happened,

513
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 2: the Raptor is obviously one of the teams that moved up.

514
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 2: I think there was supposed to have been like seventh

515
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:12,200
Speaker 2: or eighth. Then they moved up to fourth, and I

516
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:15,679
Speaker 2: was bummed because my mock draft before that I have

517
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:18,439
Speaker 2: Scotty Barnes going to the Raptors. I really like that

518
00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:22,240
Speaker 2: specific fit for them. He feels like a very Raptors player.

519
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:28,120
Speaker 2: So here's Scotty Barnes. Defensively awesome, just absolutely awesome. He's

520
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:32,400
Speaker 2: he's super fluid, he's got fluid hips, he moves well laterally.

521
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:35,760
Speaker 2: He's super long. He's got like a seven foot three wingspan.

522
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:39,320
Speaker 2: Like think of it as he's basically kind of like

523
00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:42,479
Speaker 2: the height of a wing with the length of a center.

524
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:45,520
Speaker 2: And he played point guard this season. And if that

525
00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:47,320
Speaker 2: doesn't sound like a modern basketball player, I don't know

526
00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:50,160
Speaker 2: what does. Here's the problem. Like, the defense is gonna play.

527
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:52,679
Speaker 2: The defense is very good. You know you're hearing like

528
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:55,399
Speaker 2: the Draymond Green thing, which nobody is Draymond Green, but

529
00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 2: just like the versatile, the switching thing, being able to

530
00:25:57,760 --> 00:26:00,960
Speaker 2: guard a lot of positions, all that's true. He's like

531
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 2: picking up opposing guards seventy five feet from the hoop,

532
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:06,119
Speaker 2: and just because he can't just to pressure them. He

533
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:09,360
Speaker 2: plays with high effort coaches love him, people rave about him.

534
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 2: The problem is, I don't know if you can play

535
00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:16,320
Speaker 2: offense in the NBA. He can't shoot for anything right now.

536
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:19,439
Speaker 2: The shot is not there. He's a really nice passer,

537
00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:22,800
Speaker 2: like a genuinely good not good for a big like,

538
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:25,160
Speaker 2: just a good passer. That's why he played point guard.

539
00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:28,440
Speaker 2: But you can't be a good passer and not have

540
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 2: other offensive skills otherwise you're Ben Simmons. And we know

541
00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:34,520
Speaker 2: that this doesn't work in a lot of teams. You

542
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:37,520
Speaker 2: need to have other stuff that goes with you. If

543
00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 2: you don't have the ball in your hands enough, you

544
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,920
Speaker 2: don't get to use all that passing. So my take

545
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:45,639
Speaker 2: with Barnes is this, I think the high end Barnes

546
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:50,159
Speaker 2: outcome is really good, like a championship caliber player, because

547
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:52,919
Speaker 2: of the versatility of the defense. It's all great. The

548
00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 2: problem is that the low end outcomes I think are

549
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:58,640
Speaker 2: pretty bad and like not playable. And I think that

550
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:02,720
Speaker 2: he's a higher variance guy. And I understand the fourth

551
00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:05,400
Speaker 2: or fifth thing. I agree. I don't think there's value

552
00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 2: in playing him to go five now that the odds

553
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:10,120
Speaker 2: have juiced so high, I don't mind the value at four.

554
00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 2: I actually wrote about that as a possible pick a

555
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:15,160
Speaker 2: few weeks ago, but even that number is not super

556
00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:19,480
Speaker 2: great at this point. It's weird too. I really don't

557
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:21,720
Speaker 2: like him to Orlando. I don't understand why that's the

558
00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:25,080
Speaker 2: team that wants him. Of all teams, Orlando has length

559
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:27,439
Speaker 2: and defense. What they need is someone to soak up

560
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:31,000
Speaker 2: usage in possessions and shoot the ball while like Jonathan

561
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:35,160
Speaker 2: Isaac and Chu Mulakike do their defensive complimentary stuff around him.

562
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:38,440
Speaker 2: That's not where I want Scottie Barnes. I'd love him

563
00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:42,399
Speaker 2: to Golden State theoretically if the timeline fit better. I

564
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:46,400
Speaker 2: like him in Toronto. I like him a lot. He's

565
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 2: going to be a fan favorite, but he definitely is

566
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 2: more of a swing or miss sort of guy. I think, well,

567
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:53,360
Speaker 2: we don't.

568
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 1: I guess to think I don't care about fit in

569
00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:59,880
Speaker 1: top ten. I don't care.

570
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:04,440
Speaker 3: Like it's irrelevant. Yeah, it's that no one drafts top ten.

571
00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:06,520
Speaker 3: You don't draft fit honestly until fifteen.

572
00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:10,439
Speaker 2: I think that that's I think that's fair. But I

573
00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 2: think that part of part of that's part of my

574
00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:16,840
Speaker 2: concern with Scotty is that I think that, like I

575
00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:20,000
Speaker 2: consider team fit and team building a lot when I'm

576
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:22,639
Speaker 2: thinking about players and player value, and I think that

577
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:26,679
Speaker 2: he has a difficult team fet I think because of

578
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 2: his extremely limited offensive skill set a role like when

579
00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 2: it would go to the half court offense, he would

580
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:34,479
Speaker 2: literally just be standing almost off the screen, like out

581
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:36,119
Speaker 2: in your half court, like all right, well let me

582
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:38,120
Speaker 2: just get back and play some defense now, and now

583
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:41,160
Speaker 2: you're playing four and five and like like it, think

584
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:44,720
Speaker 2: of Ben Simmons again, like you need a specific sort

585
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 2: of offense and four specific players around him, And so

586
00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:50,240
Speaker 2: I think you have to at least consider that a

587
00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:51,840
Speaker 2: little bit, like who do we have and who are

588
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:54,760
Speaker 2: we adding to our team? So I agree, you know,

589
00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 2: like if you're drafting this time in the lottery, it's

590
00:28:57,400 --> 00:28:59,680
Speaker 2: because you need a star, and if you think Scotty's

591
00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:01,320
Speaker 2: gonna be star, you just take him and you figure

592
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:04,080
Speaker 2: the rest out later. But I think he's an interesting

593
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:05,000
Speaker 2: player for sure.

594
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:08,360
Speaker 3: Well let me ask you, like, would you bet? Would

595
00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:09,080
Speaker 3: you bet his prop?

596
00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 1: Like?

597
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:14,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I wouldn't right now. I think I

598
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:17,480
Speaker 2: think when I wrote the column a couple of weeks ago,

599
00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 2: at plus four, I think he was like four fifty

600
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:22,479
Speaker 2: and at that number, I think out if that were

601
00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:24,440
Speaker 2: number were still available, I think I might be willing

602
00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:28,600
Speaker 2: to take a shot on it. It does there is

603
00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:33,000
Speaker 2: starting to be a little bit of Kuminga Ea sort

604
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 2: of vibe to Jalen Suggs. And here's what I mean

605
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,840
Speaker 2: by that. For a long time we had okay, here's

606
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 2: the top five, but we always would list the guys

607
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:44,160
Speaker 2: off in some order. But Kuminga was the fifth guy allays.

608
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 2: It feels like like he's out, He's not in the

609
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 2: top five. Now we kind of know that. It sort

610
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:52,040
Speaker 2: of feels like we've moved to four and that Suggs

611
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:56,440
Speaker 2: is four, Like whatever the top three is, It's really

612
00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:58,680
Speaker 2: hard to imagine at this point Mobile and Green not

613
00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:01,280
Speaker 2: being two and three in some order. Like it seems

614
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 2: like we know who the top three is, even even

615
00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:06,600
Speaker 2: the books have been listing from like who are the

616
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:09,200
Speaker 2: exact top four, and switch it to the exact top three,

617
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:13,480
Speaker 2: and it just like my my spidy senses tingle a

618
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:16,160
Speaker 2: little bit on when there's the guy that everyone agrees

619
00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:19,520
Speaker 2: is the bottom in a tier, then I just wonder,

620
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:21,920
Speaker 2: like all it takes now is what if Toronto just

621
00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:24,600
Speaker 2: doesn't really like Jalen sucks? Or what if they're confident

622
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 2: Lowry's coming back, and they got Lowry and Van Vliet

623
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:29,800
Speaker 2: and and they want a forward or a center. I know,

624
00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:31,400
Speaker 2: I know, spoiler alert.

625
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:33,160
Speaker 1: They do not. They are not.

626
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:37,440
Speaker 2: Confident that Kyle Lowry, you know, But like, what what

627
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 2: if they just don't like him? Well, what if they

628
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:40,520
Speaker 2: feel like he's too similar to a game to Fred

629
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 2: van Vleet too, actually think he is similar to like

630
00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 2: all takes them not liking him and then Barnes him play.

631
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:48,680
Speaker 1: Okay, so I think at four.

632
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 3: Look, one thing I have tried to do in the

633
00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:55,400
Speaker 3: past with props betting for the draft is try and

634
00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 3: single in on what the early rumors are. There's this

635
00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:00,760
Speaker 3: idea that like, well, you know, change and it can

636
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:02,480
Speaker 3: like you can be really high on a guy early

637
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 3: and then do an interview or an individual workout and

638
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:10,800
Speaker 3: it can change. Barnes very early was talked about as

639
00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 3: raptors of four. There's risk here on a number of levels.

640
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 3: And the reason is so Barnes to go fourth is

641
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:30,280
Speaker 3: plus two twenty five and Sugs to go fifth is

642
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:34,040
Speaker 3: at BEMGM is plus four to twenty five.

643
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:38,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, for sure, that's the play if you're going

644
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:41,360
Speaker 2: to bet Barnes at four, you absolutely need to bet

645
00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:42,280
Speaker 2: Sugs Thugs five.

646
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:46,320
Speaker 3: The Magic will not Yeah, here's the big thing. The

647
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:49,320
Speaker 3: Magic will not let one of Barns or Sugs go

648
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:53,840
Speaker 3: past that. That is consensus is that if it's Barnes, great,

649
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:58,480
Speaker 3: if it Sugs great, So even if somebody completely screws

650
00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:01,200
Speaker 3: both of us and jumps up into Kaminga at three

651
00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:04,640
Speaker 3: or at four, rather, the Magic are still going to

652
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 3: take Sugs at five because he's does it's there better

653
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:11,280
Speaker 3: than Barnes, and then Barnes is the one that slips.

654
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:16,080
Speaker 2: So then if you don't want to play both of them,

655
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:19,960
Speaker 2: then by that logic, shouldn't you just play Sugs Because

656
00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 2: if a team jumps up, they're jumping the four to

657
00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:24,960
Speaker 2: maybe take someone else, so Josh Giddy or someone and

658
00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 2: that's worse odds. Why not just play Sugs at five?

659
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:30,880
Speaker 2: And you're getting like I was saying, I would maybe

660
00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:32,760
Speaker 2: play this if I was still getting the four fifty, Well,

661
00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:35,360
Speaker 2: we're getting almost that number to do Sugs at five,

662
00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 2: which is kind of the same bet as what we're saying,

663
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 2: So why not play just that one instead? Is that

664
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 2: not kind of playing Barnes to go four? In the

665
00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 2: same way where it's playing Sugs not to go for Basically.

666
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 1: I think you're getting ev On Sug.

667
00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:50,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you're getting ev On Sugs not to

668
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:53,160
Speaker 3: go four at plus four twenty five, Like I think

669
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:56,240
Speaker 3: that's value at fifth at fifth, I don't. I don't

670
00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:58,280
Speaker 3: see Sugs following past me, past Orlando.

671
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:02,440
Speaker 2: And I also don't know that I really see a

672
00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:05,760
Speaker 2: path for him going higher, in part because one spot

673
00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:08,480
Speaker 2: higher is Cleveland, that number three. That doesn't make any

674
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 2: sense to me that Cleveland. Cleveland has Sexton and Garland

675
00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:16,240
Speaker 2: and Sugs. Again, you don't take for fit, but like, well,

676
00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:18,760
Speaker 2: they can't keep drafting a point guard every single season.

677
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:21,560
Speaker 1: They're not gonna have Sexton after this off season.

678
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:24,880
Speaker 2: Sure, but that's the saying like that's.

679
00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:27,080
Speaker 3: A concern, right, is like they is that they negotiate

680
00:33:27,080 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 3: a sign trade for for they trade Sextion thing because

681
00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 3: they don't want to give them Max, which is out there. Uh,

682
00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 3: and then they take Sugs as basically like the guard

683
00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:41,760
Speaker 3: replacement they play, and they play Sugs in Garland together.

684
00:33:42,480 --> 00:33:45,040
Speaker 2: But but why would you Again, I know you're saying

685
00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:46,880
Speaker 2: like you just take the best talent, but.

686
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:52,280
Speaker 3: This is really, this is really important is that I'm

687
00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:54,200
Speaker 3: with you, Like I this is how I used to think,

688
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:56,560
Speaker 3: is like you can't do this, like this doesn't make

689
00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 3: any sense with your roster construction. And then like I

690
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:01,520
Speaker 3: got into common versations about this with people that build

691
00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:03,760
Speaker 3: the teams, and they're just like, there's no like you

692
00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:06,719
Speaker 3: will just wind up hurting yourselves and you get fired

693
00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 3: for not taking the better player because you're worried about

694
00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:12,040
Speaker 3: you're about how it fits with your team, and like,

695
00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:14,399
Speaker 3: self motivation is a big part of this. If you're

696
00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:17,319
Speaker 3: the guy that drafted a star, that's a tip in

697
00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:20,160
Speaker 3: your cap, like that, that's a feather in your cap,

698
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 3: so like and it's it's not even it's not even

699
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:26,680
Speaker 3: like well it's clear, like you just figure out, like, well,

700
00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:28,720
Speaker 3: these guys are clearly better. You can't like you can't separate.

701
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:31,719
Speaker 3: The way that the draft kind of tears break down

702
00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 3: is there's top three, there's well, there's a there's a

703
00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:38,000
Speaker 3: differential on whether or not you think kid is clearly better.

704
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:40,640
Speaker 3: Like some people think that there's like kid and then

705
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:43,799
Speaker 3: a drop off and then two and three and then

706
00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:45,640
Speaker 3: a drop off, or there's people that think the top

707
00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 3: three or together and then there's a drop off, but

708
00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:49,879
Speaker 3: that's like where we're at now. It's like top three

709
00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:53,840
Speaker 3: drop off, Sugs and Barns drop off, and.

710
00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 1: Then the rest of the way, right.

711
00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:00,920
Speaker 3: That's one of the problems is like, look, draft, I

712
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:06,120
Speaker 3: think trades are on the board for everybody's is open.

713
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:10,480
Speaker 3: The conversations have been I think tough because there's not

714
00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:13,040
Speaker 3: a lot of veterans that are available. That's the kind

715
00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 3: of the weird thing. Usually picts are more available than

716
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 3: veteran or picts are more scarce than veterans, but now

717
00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:18,759
Speaker 3: it's the opposite, like you can get picks, but you

718
00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:22,759
Speaker 3: can't get veterans. Toronto's a real threat to move down

719
00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:24,719
Speaker 3: and I don't know how to kind of factor that in,

720
00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:28,440
Speaker 3: Like who does someone trade up to get at four?

721
00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:33,200
Speaker 2: Well, to me, the question, I think that's the wrong question.

722
00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:35,560
Speaker 2: To me, the problem is why are you trading down?

723
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:39,520
Speaker 2: We literally just said we all agree on the top three,

724
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:42,279
Speaker 2: we all agree on the top five. Like this top

725
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:45,440
Speaker 2: tier has really separated itself and become very clear to

726
00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:48,800
Speaker 2: me the problem in this draft. Last year, in the draft,

727
00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:51,920
Speaker 2: we didn't really have that top top tier of guys,

728
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:54,960
Speaker 2: and so all the rest of the lottery felt like

729
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:57,520
Speaker 2: everyone was reaching a little bit because everyone else got

730
00:35:57,560 --> 00:36:00,200
Speaker 2: pushed up. This year, we have those top guys all

731
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:03,520
Speaker 2: agree on them. We're missing that like six to ten,

732
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:06,520
Speaker 2: the second class guys, and so we've got this big

733
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:09,000
Speaker 2: middle class that starts jumping up and we're like, well,

734
00:36:09,320 --> 00:36:11,200
Speaker 2: I gotta take one of these guys at number six?

735
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 2: Can I trade down? Well, if I'm four or five,

736
00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:18,560
Speaker 2: why would I want to trade out of that top tier?

737
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:22,200
Speaker 2: I won the lottery literally, and I'm in that group

738
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:24,880
Speaker 2: in that spot. Now, why would I give up? If

739
00:36:24,920 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 2: I'm going out to get a veteran, Sure, that's different,

740
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:30,520
Speaker 2: But why do I want to move down out of

741
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:33,520
Speaker 2: this clear top tier into like the morass of twenty

742
00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:35,799
Speaker 2: other people that no one knows what order they're going

743
00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:36,279
Speaker 2: to go on.

744
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:39,600
Speaker 3: Because Toronto, I think, is trying to work out something larger.

745
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:43,040
Speaker 3: I think that's part of the conversation, and I also

746
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:45,520
Speaker 3: I think a lot of it is just that Toronto

747
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:48,960
Speaker 3: doesn't view. Here's the thing is, like we're taking this

748
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:52,920
Speaker 3: base off of like consensus evaluations what I'm doing going on?

749
00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:54,919
Speaker 3: And you kind of agree that there's like top three

750
00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:57,200
Speaker 3: and then there's Barnes and Sugs and then drop off.

751
00:36:57,280 --> 00:36:58,879
Speaker 1: Right, do you agree on that?

752
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:02,719
Speaker 3: Is there a guy that a guy that you think

753
00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:05,680
Speaker 3: belongs in that top tier that's not we haven't talked about.

754
00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:10,240
Speaker 2: I have Jaden Springer in my second tier with Sugs

755
00:37:10,280 --> 00:37:11,000
Speaker 2: and Green. I have k.

756
00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:16,279
Speaker 1: We'll get to Springer. Don't don't trust me. I need

757
00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:21,600
Speaker 1: you to to soothe my fears. But if there's not

758
00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:23,960
Speaker 1: a guy out that we don't know and thinks that

759
00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:27,719
Speaker 1: Springer's going that high, so right, if he's not.

760
00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:30,239
Speaker 3: If he's not that high, then it's like okay. But

761
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:33,040
Speaker 3: if you're if there is top three and then four

762
00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:35,760
Speaker 3: and five are basically the same. If you're the Raptors

763
00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:37,240
Speaker 3: and you're just like, yeah, but we don't like Sugs

764
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:39,719
Speaker 3: or Barns, we're just not blown away by it. And

765
00:37:39,760 --> 00:37:43,200
Speaker 3: if you can pick up multiple picks later, you'd probably

766
00:37:43,239 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 3: do that. Because they're looking at like their conversations have

767
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:49,359
Speaker 3: been about overhauling a lot, but they're not looking at

768
00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:49,879
Speaker 3: small moves.

769
00:37:49,920 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 1: They're looking at major moves.

770
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:55,200
Speaker 3: I reported this week on Action Network about their conversations

771
00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 3: with the Sixers UH for a ridiculous offer that they

772
00:37:58,520 --> 00:38:02,960
Speaker 3: turned down. I should note, but they are their interest

773
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:06,879
Speaker 3: in in their interest in Simmons is referred to as substantial.

774
00:38:07,280 --> 00:38:10,040
Speaker 3: It is not a passing glance. Like the Raptors have

775
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:14,200
Speaker 3: actually made serious calls about Simmons. They haven't gotten serious

776
00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:17,480
Speaker 3: offers in return, but they've they've actually they have interest

777
00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:20,440
Speaker 3: in those things they're looking at overhauling, and so if

778
00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:22,920
Speaker 3: that's the case, then I do think like a trade

779
00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:24,440
Speaker 3: down is at least plausible.

780
00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:26,840
Speaker 1: But at the same.

781
00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:28,759
Speaker 3: Time, to me, if you're going to trade up, the

782
00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:30,439
Speaker 3: only guy that you trade up to get at four

783
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:33,319
Speaker 3: is Sugs, like that you're the guy that looks at

784
00:38:33,360 --> 00:38:38,640
Speaker 3: and says, if you know that Orlando is not going

785
00:38:38,680 --> 00:38:40,799
Speaker 3: to let one of those two go, and you know

786
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:43,960
Speaker 3: that the Raptors are like, well, we're not really sold

787
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:47,680
Speaker 3: on either one, and we may just take Barnes, And

788
00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:50,640
Speaker 3: you're like, well, okay, if you take Barnes, I'm still

789
00:38:50,680 --> 00:38:52,200
Speaker 3: I still can't get Sugs because.

790
00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:53,480
Speaker 1: The magic you're going to take him.

791
00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:56,400
Speaker 3: Then I think that's probably that's probably still it with

792
00:38:56,800 --> 00:38:59,240
Speaker 3: you know, Sugs going four, that's the risk with betting

793
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:02,839
Speaker 3: Sugs five, it's right, but I think I still think

794
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:04,799
Speaker 3: of four to twenty five, there's probably value based off

795
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:10,560
Speaker 3: of how hyped Barnes is at this point for reference,

796
00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:13,440
Speaker 3: and if we want to look at on bet MGM,

797
00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:19,080
Speaker 3: Barnes is not on the board for the for his

798
00:39:19,400 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 3: prop uh differential like player position.

799
00:39:23,440 --> 00:39:25,480
Speaker 2: I think the top five guys don't really have that

800
00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:25,919
Speaker 2: be other.

801
00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:29,279
Speaker 3: At well one book under five and a half is

802
00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:36,080
Speaker 3: minus four hundred. That's how heavily Scottie Barnes is projected

803
00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:36,799
Speaker 3: to go top five.

804
00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:39,080
Speaker 2: So like, so what's the what's the over?

805
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 3: It's plus two seventy five. You're not even getting great

806
00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:43,040
Speaker 3: value on the other side of it.

807
00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:46,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, are you do you want to bet

808
00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:48,480
Speaker 1: plus two seventy five on on Barns over base off

809
00:39:48,480 --> 00:39:48,799
Speaker 1: of the fact.

810
00:39:48,880 --> 00:39:50,959
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm just I'm betting.

811
00:39:51,160 --> 00:39:53,080
Speaker 3: I'm asking because like you like to take these shots.

812
00:39:53,120 --> 00:39:55,239
Speaker 3: And if you're like, I don't think he's that good.

813
00:39:55,920 --> 00:39:57,799
Speaker 2: Well, it's just when I hear when I hear a

814
00:39:57,840 --> 00:40:00,319
Speaker 2: prop and I and I think one side is looted Chris,

815
00:40:00,480 --> 00:40:02,360
Speaker 2: then I you know, like, well not ludicrous, but like

816
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:04,680
Speaker 2: there's no chance I'm betting the minus four hundred. I

817
00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:07,000
Speaker 2: just I don't like to pay that for to juice something.

818
00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:09,479
Speaker 2: So if I see that, then I then ask myself, well,

819
00:40:09,719 --> 00:40:12,439
Speaker 2: then what's the other side. So I asked, I don't

820
00:40:12,440 --> 00:40:14,239
Speaker 2: think I want to play it, but you know, if

821
00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:16,440
Speaker 2: you don't like Barnes, if you feel like he's just

822
00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:19,040
Speaker 2: not gonna fit those two teams, then that's a play.

823
00:40:19,080 --> 00:40:21,840
Speaker 2: But all the intel certainly points to him being pretty

824
00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:22,840
Speaker 2: safely in that group.

825
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:25,040
Speaker 3: All right, let's let's get into this is where they

826
00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:29,719
Speaker 3: gets messy. Okay, we got about tears, top three, four

827
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:36,360
Speaker 3: and five. To me, six through fifteen is liquid. Maybe

828
00:40:36,600 --> 00:40:40,760
Speaker 3: maybe six or fourteen, Maybe six through twelve.

829
00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:45,000
Speaker 2: I would say like six to twenty five. Like I

830
00:40:45,120 --> 00:40:47,200
Speaker 2: legitimately think that there's gonna be guys that are in

831
00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:49,239
Speaker 2: the twenties in mock drafts that go in like the

832
00:40:49,239 --> 00:40:51,719
Speaker 2: top ten and everyone's like what, And then I think

833
00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:53,919
Speaker 2: there's gonna be guys that are going like eight and nine.

834
00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:56,840
Speaker 2: They're gonna slide quote unquote all the way to twenty.

835
00:40:57,680 --> 00:40:59,680
Speaker 2: I just think it's so fluid. I think that this

836
00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:03,080
Speaker 2: next tier is just this big ooey, gouey middle class

837
00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:03,919
Speaker 2: of prospects.

838
00:41:04,120 --> 00:41:06,400
Speaker 1: You have a guy that you think is going to

839
00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:06,880
Speaker 1: go higher.

840
00:41:08,719 --> 00:41:10,640
Speaker 2: I mean, is this is this where I get to

841
00:41:10,680 --> 00:41:12,640
Speaker 2: talk about James Springer? That's this guy?

842
00:41:12,760 --> 00:41:15,040
Speaker 1: This is the guy that, yeah, let's let's talk about Springer.

843
00:41:15,120 --> 00:41:15,520
Speaker 1: Go ahead.

844
00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:19,720
Speaker 2: So so here's what I like about James Springer. He's

845
00:41:20,120 --> 00:41:23,960
Speaker 2: he's a very high floor prospect, I think because he's

846
00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:27,640
Speaker 2: he's good at everything. He doesn't have he doesn't have

847
00:41:27,840 --> 00:41:31,000
Speaker 2: a he's good at everything without being great at something,

848
00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:34,400
Speaker 2: And those sort of prospects tend to be undervalued because

849
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:38,359
Speaker 2: we love to talk about this guy's jumper or this

850
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:40,600
Speaker 2: guy's defense, or you know, like fill in the blank.

851
00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:43,520
Speaker 2: We love to to put them into a bucket of Oh,

852
00:41:43,640 --> 00:41:46,440
Speaker 2: I know that guy, he's this prospect because he has

853
00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:50,080
Speaker 2: this skill. Springer doesn't really fit that because he has

854
00:41:50,120 --> 00:41:54,919
Speaker 2: a quieter, more rounded game. But he's he's a very

855
00:41:54,920 --> 00:41:57,960
Speaker 2: good defender. He really locks in, plays high effort, high

856
00:41:58,040 --> 00:41:59,799
Speaker 2: energy on that. And he's gonna be a good guard

857
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:02,719
Speaker 2: to which is only so valuable admittedly, but he's gonna

858
00:42:02,719 --> 00:42:06,880
Speaker 2: be a good team construct guy. He fits well in

859
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:09,280
Speaker 2: a lot of team concepts, like I think he's slopped

860
00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:11,239
Speaker 2: into a roster well because he can play on or

861
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:14,160
Speaker 2: off the ball. His shooting numbers this year were good,

862
00:42:14,320 --> 00:42:16,480
Speaker 2: though not super high volume, so there's a little bit

863
00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:19,279
Speaker 2: of concern there. But free throw looks good, the shot

864
00:42:19,320 --> 00:42:22,200
Speaker 2: looks confident. He can dribble, he can pass, he can

865
00:42:22,200 --> 00:42:24,920
Speaker 2: create for himself, you can create for teammates a little bit.

866
00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:28,120
Speaker 2: He's not great at any of those things. The one

867
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:30,200
Speaker 2: thing that that was a bit of a concern this year.

868
00:42:30,600 --> 00:42:32,719
Speaker 2: He's not super bursty, like he's not going to be

869
00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:35,279
Speaker 2: the guy to just attack the rim or just you know,

870
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:39,160
Speaker 2: beat his guy on his own. But and here's the key,

871
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:41,200
Speaker 2: here's where I really like Springs and why I think

872
00:42:41,239 --> 00:42:46,200
Speaker 2: he's being undervalued. So to me, Springer and Suggs are

873
00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:49,279
Speaker 2: somewhat comparable to each other in sort of their like

874
00:42:49,920 --> 00:42:52,080
Speaker 2: understated nature of their game. I don't think either one

875
00:42:52,120 --> 00:42:53,680
Speaker 2: of them is gonna ever be like a big time

876
00:42:53,960 --> 00:42:56,480
Speaker 2: NBA score sort of guy. They're gonna be like a

877
00:42:56,520 --> 00:42:59,839
Speaker 2: winning player Kyle Lowry Van Vliet sort of guy, which

878
00:42:59,840 --> 00:43:04,000
Speaker 2: I I love those guys. So here's the thing. Though,

879
00:43:04,320 --> 00:43:07,600
Speaker 2: Number one, Jamee Springer played hurt this whole season. He

880
00:43:07,680 --> 00:43:10,680
Speaker 2: is playing on his sprained ankle that he kept reinjuring,

881
00:43:11,200 --> 00:43:12,719
Speaker 2: and a lot of the reports on the combine this

882
00:43:12,760 --> 00:43:15,000
Speaker 2: summer that he looked a lot healthier and he looked

883
00:43:15,160 --> 00:43:18,240
Speaker 2: he had that pop again. So of all the things

884
00:43:18,280 --> 00:43:20,160
Speaker 2: we didn't like about him, if it's that burst, that

885
00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:23,759
Speaker 2: first step, well, that jives with a thing that would

886
00:43:23,760 --> 00:43:27,560
Speaker 2: have been hampered by an injury. Number two, Tennessee had

887
00:43:27,680 --> 00:43:30,920
Speaker 2: horrendous spacing and offense this year that had no shooting.

888
00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:34,239
Speaker 2: It was a really rough spot for him versus Gonzaga,

889
00:43:34,480 --> 00:43:36,720
Speaker 2: which had like one of the best situations you could

890
00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:39,680
Speaker 2: possibly ever have had for a point guard, all the spacing,

891
00:43:39,760 --> 00:43:43,840
Speaker 2: all the modern offense. And Suggs is fifteen months older

892
00:43:43,840 --> 00:43:47,120
Speaker 2: than Springer. I really value, especially at the top of

893
00:43:47,160 --> 00:43:51,719
Speaker 2: the draft, youth, because youth means unknown, and unknown can

894
00:43:51,760 --> 00:43:56,560
Speaker 2: mean upside. And here's what I keep asking myself. If

895
00:43:56,560 --> 00:44:00,480
Speaker 2: you swapped them and said, Okay, Jade Springer, get healthy,

896
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:05,279
Speaker 2: develop fifteen months to be Jalen Suggs's age, and now

897
00:44:05,440 --> 00:44:10,160
Speaker 2: put that Springer into Gonzega's offense and Suggs's place, could

898
00:44:10,160 --> 00:44:12,799
Speaker 2: he have led that team to the National title game

899
00:44:12,800 --> 00:44:14,840
Speaker 2: an undefeated season along the way. And I think he

900
00:44:14,920 --> 00:44:19,160
Speaker 2: absolutely could have. So I have Springer in my tier

901
00:44:19,200 --> 00:44:21,279
Speaker 2: with Suggs. I just think he's a He has a

902
00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:25,520
Speaker 2: very high floor to be a very good contributor, like

903
00:44:25,560 --> 00:44:29,440
Speaker 2: a like think like a George Hill or Malcolm Brogdon player.

904
00:44:30,160 --> 00:44:32,719
Speaker 2: I think that's like a median outcome, but I think

905
00:44:32,719 --> 00:44:34,799
Speaker 2: there's a lot more upside than people are giving him

906
00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:38,840
Speaker 2: credit for. It baffles me. Despite all of what I

907
00:44:38,960 --> 00:44:41,239
Speaker 2: just said, I have a number five on my board.

908
00:44:41,239 --> 00:44:44,240
Speaker 2: He's in my second tier. But then I read boards,

909
00:44:44,280 --> 00:44:46,359
Speaker 2: I read all the intel. Everything I see as Ah

910
00:44:46,480 --> 00:44:50,399
Speaker 2: Springer like twenty fifth, thirtieth, twenty second, like I think

911
00:44:50,400 --> 00:44:53,560
Speaker 2: that's his over under twenty two point five. I don't know.

912
00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:56,640
Speaker 2: I don't understand what I'm missing or what everyone else

913
00:44:56,680 --> 00:45:00,200
Speaker 2: is missing, because there's a real cognitive dissonance, and I'm

914
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:03,400
Speaker 2: not usually this far off consensus on a player. I

915
00:45:03,400 --> 00:45:08,600
Speaker 2: will say, though, draft Twitter, yeah does like Springer, not

916
00:45:08,680 --> 00:45:11,480
Speaker 2: quite as much as me, more like tenth than fifth,

917
00:45:11,520 --> 00:45:14,080
Speaker 2: I think, but they do like him. So I don't know,

918
00:45:14,080 --> 00:45:15,680
Speaker 2: what do you think of the case for Springer.

919
00:45:16,680 --> 00:45:19,160
Speaker 1: So let's talk draft Twitter for a little bit.

920
00:45:19,200 --> 00:45:21,560
Speaker 3: Springer was one identified almost immediately because the guy that

921
00:45:21,600 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 3: I trust most on this stuff has him fifth on

922
00:45:24,120 --> 00:45:26,320
Speaker 3: his board too, and.

923
00:45:28,680 --> 00:45:29,560
Speaker 1: So I bet.

924
00:45:29,400 --> 00:45:31,719
Speaker 3: Springer out the gate at twenty three and a half

925
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:35,759
Speaker 3: minus one ten when when the props first hit, I

926
00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:39,279
Speaker 3: hit that every book I could find it at. So

927
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:45,680
Speaker 3: I have built on Springer, I have more on him there.

928
00:45:46,719 --> 00:45:51,440
Speaker 3: Draft Twitter can be it's messy because there are guys

929
00:45:51,480 --> 00:45:54,000
Speaker 3: in there that are in quote unquote draft Twitter that

930
00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:56,799
Speaker 3: are just like guys that really love prospects and dive

931
00:45:56,840 --> 00:45:59,480
Speaker 3: into it and are part of the conversations. And then

932
00:45:59,480 --> 00:46:02,160
Speaker 3: there's guys there that do legitimate they've done work for

933
00:46:02,239 --> 00:46:05,480
Speaker 3: teams and they have like high level expertise in this stuff.

934
00:46:06,000 --> 00:46:07,759
Speaker 1: The gap there, I think is significant.

935
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:11,560
Speaker 3: Draft Twitter will also all latch onto a guy and

936
00:46:11,600 --> 00:46:12,879
Speaker 3: they'll be higher on him.

937
00:46:13,400 --> 00:46:16,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, he won't go as high as they think that

938
00:46:16,719 --> 00:46:17,800
Speaker 1: he should.

939
00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:22,200
Speaker 3: Like that's a that's a real thing where and I

940
00:46:22,239 --> 00:46:26,239
Speaker 3: think the gap there is likely intel on the background

941
00:46:27,000 --> 00:46:30,560
Speaker 3: or the interview, right, Like, I think that's probably got

942
00:46:30,600 --> 00:46:32,960
Speaker 3: something to do with how those conversations evolve.

943
00:46:33,520 --> 00:46:35,560
Speaker 1: Look, draft Twitter, there's a there was a guy.

944
00:46:35,400 --> 00:46:38,680
Speaker 3: That actually did the some folks actually did an amalgamation

945
00:46:38,800 --> 00:46:44,760
Speaker 3: of where they're at. They have Springer as the tenth

946
00:46:44,800 --> 00:46:48,600
Speaker 3: pick overall, with the highest was four, and there's and

947
00:46:48,680 --> 00:46:52,719
Speaker 3: the low was thirty five. So that's like a wide range,

948
00:46:52,800 --> 00:46:54,680
Speaker 3: right because again you got a lot of folks thing.

949
00:46:55,120 --> 00:46:57,640
Speaker 2: And that's kind of like Nix ninety six boards I

950
00:46:57,680 --> 00:47:00,319
Speaker 2: think too. So that's not just a couple outliers. That's

951
00:47:00,360 --> 00:47:01,439
Speaker 2: that's a lot of work in there.

952
00:47:01,719 --> 00:47:05,600
Speaker 3: He's a high IQ player, which I really like at

953
00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:08,240
Speaker 3: this point in time, I think. I think in general,

954
00:47:08,280 --> 00:47:10,400
Speaker 3: executives are more concerned with can you play?

955
00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:11,720
Speaker 1: Than are you athletic?

956
00:47:12,239 --> 00:47:15,160
Speaker 3: Is a good defender, he's all around, he's productive, and

957
00:47:15,200 --> 00:47:18,120
Speaker 3: he's a playmaker. He makes other guys better, which again

958
00:47:18,239 --> 00:47:20,719
Speaker 3: is something that a lot of teams are looking for. Uh.

959
00:47:20,920 --> 00:47:23,000
Speaker 3: I did ask somebody yesterday for kind of like a

960
00:47:23,040 --> 00:47:24,719
Speaker 3: bigger deep dive, and one of the things that they

961
00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:26,960
Speaker 3: mentioned was they were like, everything that he does offensively

962
00:47:27,000 --> 00:47:28,680
Speaker 3: is off the hop step. You do that in the

963
00:47:28,760 --> 00:47:31,040
Speaker 3: NBA and you're gonna get blocked. Like that's like a

964
00:47:31,040 --> 00:47:31,720
Speaker 3: real concern.

965
00:47:32,080 --> 00:47:34,560
Speaker 1: He shot forty from three, but he was only on

966
00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:35,839
Speaker 1: forty five attempts.

967
00:47:36,160 --> 00:47:40,000
Speaker 3: His shot releases like painfully slow. It's he's got a

968
00:47:40,040 --> 00:47:43,359
Speaker 3: really slow release. My only thing is if you're if

969
00:47:43,360 --> 00:47:45,239
Speaker 3: you're a team and you're looking at that and you're like,

970
00:47:45,680 --> 00:47:48,200
Speaker 3: you know what, if we give him eight hundred reps

971
00:47:48,200 --> 00:47:50,719
Speaker 3: a day, he's gonna like, we're going to get that

972
00:47:50,800 --> 00:47:54,680
Speaker 3: speed up, like working with coaches every single day, he's

973
00:47:54,719 --> 00:47:55,359
Speaker 3: gonna move up.

974
00:47:55,600 --> 00:47:56,440
Speaker 1: The bigger thing is.

975
00:47:56,440 --> 00:47:58,920
Speaker 3: That despite all of this, the books and like we've

976
00:47:58,920 --> 00:48:01,040
Speaker 3: been talking about it, I've been on show Who's talking

977
00:48:01,040 --> 00:48:03,480
Speaker 3: about on You Better you Bet, I've talked about this consistently.

978
00:48:03,800 --> 00:48:06,280
Speaker 3: His props still twenty two and a half the unders

979
00:48:06,440 --> 00:48:10,279
Speaker 3: is juiced at plus one ten on bet MGM, the

980
00:48:10,280 --> 00:48:13,319
Speaker 3: officials provider of the Action Network. For me, like, I

981
00:48:13,400 --> 00:48:14,920
Speaker 3: just think Jayden and Springer twenty two and a half

982
00:48:14,920 --> 00:48:17,040
Speaker 3: still has to be a best bet. Like I don't

983
00:48:17,040 --> 00:48:18,759
Speaker 3: think twenty two. Like usually you want to look at

984
00:48:18,760 --> 00:48:20,759
Speaker 3: the stopping point, right, like twenty two. I don't like

985
00:48:20,800 --> 00:48:23,120
Speaker 3: twenty two because I think that there's three guys that

986
00:48:23,120 --> 00:48:24,040
Speaker 3: I think the Lakers have have.

987
00:48:24,040 --> 00:48:27,840
Speaker 1: Penciled at twenty two, including Io assumed now, but if.

988
00:48:27,680 --> 00:48:30,879
Speaker 3: We move higher, I still think there's a good chance

989
00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:32,239
Speaker 3: that one of those teams in the teams is going

990
00:48:32,320 --> 00:48:35,560
Speaker 3: to be like, yeah, let's just take Springer, right Because

991
00:48:35,640 --> 00:48:38,319
Speaker 3: like I just go over the list of guys that

992
00:48:38,360 --> 00:48:42,879
Speaker 3: are that are mocked in the top ten on most

993
00:48:42,920 --> 00:48:46,799
Speaker 3: of the quote unquote big name boards, and I'm not

994
00:48:47,680 --> 00:48:51,839
Speaker 3: convinced that there's these guys are are absolutely going to go.

995
00:48:52,000 --> 00:48:52,600
Speaker 1: I just don't.

996
00:48:52,800 --> 00:48:55,319
Speaker 2: Well, that's that's the problem that I was saying, is

997
00:48:55,400 --> 00:48:58,560
Speaker 2: like we don't have the sixth to tenth best prospects.

998
00:48:58,680 --> 00:49:01,520
Speaker 2: We have this big middle group, and to me, Springer

999
00:49:01,640 --> 00:49:04,080
Speaker 2: is the exact sort of guy that I could see

1000
00:49:04,120 --> 00:49:06,879
Speaker 2: a Raptors or a team in that four five sixty

1001
00:49:06,880 --> 00:49:10,759
Speaker 2: seven range. Look around and can I be like I

1002
00:49:10,840 --> 00:49:13,359
Speaker 2: missed out on Mobiley and Green. I'm not really in

1003
00:49:13,400 --> 00:49:16,080
Speaker 2: love with these guys. I kind of like Springer though,

1004
00:49:16,080 --> 00:49:18,480
Speaker 2: And it sure looks like he's available eight, ten, twelve

1005
00:49:18,480 --> 00:49:21,920
Speaker 2: picks from now, let's trade down. You know, the thunder

1006
00:49:21,920 --> 00:49:24,279
Speaker 2: of two picks. The Knicks have two picks, so that's

1007
00:49:24,320 --> 00:49:26,960
Speaker 2: a perfect range to pick up an asset and maybe

1008
00:49:27,000 --> 00:49:29,680
Speaker 2: grab Springer when it looks like he'll be available there.

1009
00:49:29,680 --> 00:49:32,560
Speaker 2: And if you think that, if you agree with with

1010
00:49:32,600 --> 00:49:34,719
Speaker 2: what we're saying that he's a top five or ten guy,

1011
00:49:34,760 --> 00:49:37,000
Speaker 2: but you can get him at fifteen or twenty, that's

1012
00:49:37,040 --> 00:49:39,000
Speaker 2: a great, you know, asset play to be able to

1013
00:49:39,040 --> 00:49:41,600
Speaker 2: do that. He seems like a trade down Canada.

1014
00:49:43,040 --> 00:49:45,759
Speaker 3: If we look at the guys at fifteen twenty, like Garuba Kispert,

1015
00:49:45,920 --> 00:49:47,920
Speaker 3: I think go somewhere between thirteen and twenty.

1016
00:49:48,880 --> 00:49:50,160
Speaker 1: Kai Jones I think can slip.

1017
00:49:50,320 --> 00:49:53,560
Speaker 3: Chris Dwarte I think can slip Keon Johnson I think

1018
00:49:53,600 --> 00:49:56,759
Speaker 3: probably goes somewhere between thirteen and twenty. Zaire Williams I

1019
00:49:56,800 --> 00:49:59,560
Speaker 3: think can slip. Sharif Cooper I think probably moves does

1020
00:49:59,640 --> 00:50:04,080
Speaker 3: higher them where his props are projected that he is

1021
00:50:04,120 --> 00:50:06,239
Speaker 3: twenty two and a half as well. I think sure

1022
00:50:06,239 --> 00:50:10,200
Speaker 3: Reef's another good candidate to go higher the Springer. Jared

1023
00:50:10,239 --> 00:50:12,600
Speaker 3: Butler I think is in that range. I think the

1024
00:50:12,680 --> 00:50:14,600
Speaker 3: Knicks are a very likely spot for Jared Butler, that

1025
00:50:14,719 --> 00:50:16,000
Speaker 3: they've been linked to him for a while.

1026
00:50:16,040 --> 00:50:17,960
Speaker 1: There's a lot. I thought that Jared Butler and Isaiah

1027
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:19,399
Speaker 1: Jackson are going nineteen twenty one.

1028
00:50:19,480 --> 00:50:22,000
Speaker 3: That's the two picks some things. I think the guys

1029
00:50:22,000 --> 00:50:24,080
Speaker 3: that are gonna slip. Springer seems like a guy that's

1030
00:50:24,080 --> 00:50:26,360
Speaker 3: going to move up. Moses Moody.

1031
00:50:26,680 --> 00:50:31,160
Speaker 5: Moses Moody, Moses Little Rock Lightning.

1032
00:50:31,880 --> 00:50:35,080
Speaker 3: Okay, I've got a lot on Moses Moody unders and

1033
00:50:35,239 --> 00:50:37,200
Speaker 3: he's sliding a little bit late in the process. I'm

1034
00:50:37,200 --> 00:50:40,000
Speaker 3: trying to hold the line on this. My assessment on

1035
00:50:40,080 --> 00:50:43,280
Speaker 3: him based off of what I've heard is high floor player,

1036
00:50:43,440 --> 00:50:44,040
Speaker 3: Like he's just.

1037
00:50:44,000 --> 00:50:44,600
Speaker 1: Gonna be good.

1038
00:50:44,680 --> 00:50:46,759
Speaker 3: He's gonna be good, he's gonna score for you, he's

1039
00:50:46,760 --> 00:50:50,080
Speaker 3: gonna play defense. Like you're not really there's he's not

1040
00:50:50,120 --> 00:50:52,239
Speaker 3: going to be your superstar. But if you're just like

1041
00:50:52,239 --> 00:50:54,600
Speaker 3: we gotta nail this pick, Moses Moody is your guy.

1042
00:50:55,080 --> 00:50:56,600
Speaker 3: And if we've talked all the time about like in

1043
00:50:56,640 --> 00:50:59,120
Speaker 3: the top ten, you're shopping for a superstar, that's not

1044
00:50:59,200 --> 00:50:59,799
Speaker 3: what you do.

1045
00:51:00,120 --> 00:51:01,319
Speaker 1: And I get it.

1046
00:51:02,160 --> 00:51:04,360
Speaker 3: I just feel like somebody's gonna be like, you know,

1047
00:51:04,520 --> 00:51:06,239
Speaker 3: let's just take Moody. He's the best player on the board,

1048
00:51:06,239 --> 00:51:06,960
Speaker 3: Like he's just better.

1049
00:51:08,080 --> 00:51:08,600
Speaker 1: What do you think?

1050
00:51:09,239 --> 00:51:12,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I agree. He's another guy that draft Twitter

1051
00:51:12,200 --> 00:51:14,600
Speaker 2: is very high on. I've never been quite as high,

1052
00:51:14,680 --> 00:51:18,120
Speaker 2: but I agree with everything you just said. Like he's young,

1053
00:51:18,360 --> 00:51:22,200
Speaker 2: he's long, his shot is pure and looks great, Like

1054
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:24,640
Speaker 2: he's the exact three and D guy that you want

1055
00:51:24,680 --> 00:51:26,719
Speaker 2: to slot in. And I think upside for more as

1056
00:51:26,719 --> 00:51:30,040
Speaker 2: he developed, Like he could easily be a sixteen eighteen

1057
00:51:30,160 --> 00:51:32,799
Speaker 2: twenty points a game guy in time once he gets

1058
00:51:32,800 --> 00:51:35,520
Speaker 2: a little more opportunity. I think what you're hoping for,

1059
00:51:36,239 --> 00:51:39,879
Speaker 2: you know, with Moody, I'm looking for like the Warriors

1060
00:51:40,000 --> 00:51:43,759
Speaker 2: at seven or the Kings at nine. Like, what I'm

1061
00:51:43,760 --> 00:51:47,760
Speaker 2: looking for is a team in that top range who's

1062
00:51:47,840 --> 00:51:50,440
Speaker 2: not just like the Rockets or Magic where it's like, well,

1063
00:51:50,440 --> 00:51:52,320
Speaker 2: we're not even close. We need to take a swing.

1064
00:51:52,760 --> 00:51:55,799
Speaker 2: Moody doesn't feel like a swing. Moody feels like like

1065
00:51:56,320 --> 00:51:58,840
Speaker 2: a swing for a double. Like if I'm the Warriors

1066
00:51:58,920 --> 00:52:02,479
Speaker 2: or Kings, can I can sell this as I'm gonna

1067
00:52:02,480 --> 00:52:05,120
Speaker 2: take a guy that can fit in right now and

1068
00:52:05,200 --> 00:52:08,920
Speaker 2: play for my winning team right now. Let's just imagine

1069
00:52:08,960 --> 00:52:11,080
Speaker 2: winning with the Kings. They're going for the playoffs though

1070
00:52:11,080 --> 00:52:13,160
Speaker 2: they're trying to make a move for right now. But

1071
00:52:13,239 --> 00:52:16,520
Speaker 2: I can put him in there and then hope that

1072
00:52:16,640 --> 00:52:19,600
Speaker 2: he can, you know, develop more later, kind of like

1073
00:52:19,680 --> 00:52:23,120
Speaker 2: the Jalen Brown or Jason Tatum thing. So I think

1074
00:52:23,200 --> 00:52:25,239
Speaker 2: you can go both ways. You're shaking your head at me,

1075
00:52:25,360 --> 00:52:26,839
Speaker 2: What do you why? Why are you shaking your head

1076
00:52:26,880 --> 00:52:27,080
Speaker 2: at me?

1077
00:52:27,120 --> 00:52:28,960
Speaker 3: On this one, I feel very commident. The Kings are

1078
00:52:28,960 --> 00:52:31,200
Speaker 3: going to take Fronz Wagner or Shanghun.

1079
00:52:31,360 --> 00:52:31,839
Speaker 1: Those are two.

1080
00:52:31,880 --> 00:52:33,200
Speaker 3: Those are the two guys that are going to go there.

1081
00:52:33,440 --> 00:52:34,920
Speaker 3: The Kings are not are going to take one of

1082
00:52:34,960 --> 00:52:36,279
Speaker 3: those two guys. If they do not take one of

1083
00:52:36,280 --> 00:52:37,960
Speaker 3: those two guys, it's because somebody that they did not

1084
00:52:38,000 --> 00:52:38,560
Speaker 3: think was going to.

1085
00:52:38,600 --> 00:52:40,279
Speaker 1: Fall fell to them.

1086
00:52:40,280 --> 00:52:42,000
Speaker 3: Whether that's maybe they don't think Kminga is going to

1087
00:52:42,080 --> 00:52:43,640
Speaker 3: maybe that may be part of this, right, Like they

1088
00:52:43,680 --> 00:52:45,160
Speaker 3: don't think Kminga is gonna be off the board they

1089
00:52:45,160 --> 00:52:47,240
Speaker 3: expect I mean, they may be still operating on Comminga

1090
00:52:47,840 --> 00:52:49,719
Speaker 3: is going to go five. You'd be surprised how how

1091
00:52:49,800 --> 00:52:52,160
Speaker 3: much these guys don't pay attention to the conversations around

1092
00:52:52,160 --> 00:52:55,440
Speaker 3: there around the draft. I'm not surprised by because sometimes

1093
00:52:55,440 --> 00:52:58,440
Speaker 3: we're just wrong, right, right, So.

1094
00:52:58,520 --> 00:53:00,080
Speaker 1: If like that's the case, maybe they just take too.

1095
00:53:00,520 --> 00:53:05,640
Speaker 3: Or maybe you know, the conversation about Josh Giddy gets

1096
00:53:05,680 --> 00:53:07,919
Speaker 3: them to reevaluate Giddy and they just decide like, ooh,

1097
00:53:07,920 --> 00:53:09,520
Speaker 3: we could take him and then you know, maybe somebody

1098
00:53:09,520 --> 00:53:12,279
Speaker 3: will want him or whatever else. There's like a lot

1099
00:53:12,320 --> 00:53:14,400
Speaker 3: of ways I can see them not going there, But

1100
00:53:14,520 --> 00:53:16,719
Speaker 3: like I don't I'll say this, like I don't think

1101
00:53:16,840 --> 00:53:20,239
Speaker 3: Moses goes to the Kings at nine. I think that

1102
00:53:20,239 --> 00:53:23,239
Speaker 3: that's awful and so that gets dangerous, right. The only

1103
00:53:23,280 --> 00:53:25,040
Speaker 3: thing is that his over unders eleven and a half.

1104
00:53:25,840 --> 00:53:29,520
Speaker 3: So at eleven and a half, you've got ten. The

1105
00:53:29,560 --> 00:53:32,400
Speaker 3: Grizzlies just moved to ten, and the Grizzlies are trying

1106
00:53:32,440 --> 00:53:37,520
Speaker 3: to move up. So if the Grizzlies move up and

1107
00:53:37,560 --> 00:53:41,200
Speaker 3: they take who, presumably Giddy is like the guy that's

1108
00:53:41,239 --> 00:53:44,600
Speaker 3: like everyone's like when he went when the Memphis moved

1109
00:53:44,600 --> 00:53:49,640
Speaker 3: into ten, draft Express the athletic everybody penciled in, like

1110
00:53:49,880 --> 00:53:53,480
Speaker 3: circled Giddy at ten. But the problem is is like

1111
00:53:54,480 --> 00:53:56,840
Speaker 3: Golden State likes Giddy, not as much as maybe some

1112
00:53:56,840 --> 00:53:58,440
Speaker 3: of the other guys, but he's on the board for

1113
00:53:58,480 --> 00:54:01,239
Speaker 3: them at ten or at seven. And so if you're

1114
00:54:01,360 --> 00:54:02,920
Speaker 3: if you're the Grizzlies and you were just like, we

1115
00:54:02,960 --> 00:54:06,920
Speaker 3: think Getty's the guy you're moving up. But then somebody

1116
00:54:06,920 --> 00:54:09,279
Speaker 3: that moves back to ten, they're clearly not worried about

1117
00:54:09,280 --> 00:54:10,040
Speaker 3: getting a superstar.

1118
00:54:10,080 --> 00:54:11,600
Speaker 1: They're like, we just got good value on this. We

1119
00:54:11,640 --> 00:54:13,120
Speaker 1: got an extra player, and we.

1120
00:54:13,080 --> 00:54:14,920
Speaker 3: Picked up the ten seed and then a tenth spots

1121
00:54:15,200 --> 00:54:17,239
Speaker 3: draft pick, and you get taped the tenth pick, and

1122
00:54:17,280 --> 00:54:19,920
Speaker 3: then you're like Moses Moody feels that that works perfectly,

1123
00:54:20,440 --> 00:54:22,480
Speaker 3: you know, and that gives you another and even after that,

1124
00:54:22,560 --> 00:54:24,920
Speaker 3: you still got another pick at eleven to kind of

1125
00:54:24,920 --> 00:54:25,399
Speaker 3: work that day.

1126
00:54:25,520 --> 00:54:28,680
Speaker 2: Get room there, Well, you're your other out with Moses Moody.

1127
00:54:28,760 --> 00:54:32,120
Speaker 2: Is this the whole point of Moses Moody is that

1128
00:54:32,320 --> 00:54:34,319
Speaker 2: you can put them on every team in the NBA,

1129
00:54:34,520 --> 00:54:36,880
Speaker 2: Like the whole thing is the NBA. You need shooters

1130
00:54:36,920 --> 00:54:39,200
Speaker 2: that can play on the wing and play defense. So

1131
00:54:39,840 --> 00:54:42,760
Speaker 2: he's a potential pick for any team, like he fits

1132
00:54:42,800 --> 00:54:45,600
Speaker 2: into any construct of a roster. So it gives you

1133
00:54:45,719 --> 00:54:48,240
Speaker 2: like a little slight extra out at all those spots.

1134
00:54:48,239 --> 00:54:51,040
Speaker 2: So I think that the understillm makes sense. It is

1135
00:54:51,120 --> 00:54:53,480
Speaker 2: starting to squeeze a little a little bit though, because

1136
00:54:53,600 --> 00:54:55,920
Speaker 2: of the swinging for upside nature. At the top of

1137
00:54:55,960 --> 00:54:56,440
Speaker 2: the draft.

1138
00:54:57,400 --> 00:55:00,080
Speaker 3: You've got Garuba in a like the as like a

1139
00:55:00,080 --> 00:55:05,360
Speaker 3: a top at the higher level of this tree. Go

1140
00:55:05,400 --> 00:55:07,560
Speaker 3: ahead and talk about.

1141
00:55:07,840 --> 00:55:10,640
Speaker 2: I like Garuba best out of the three international guys.

1142
00:55:11,080 --> 00:55:13,840
Speaker 2: And it's partly Garuba. It's partly that I'm just a

1143
00:55:13,840 --> 00:55:16,800
Speaker 2: little bit underwhelmed by by both Gady and by Shangen.

1144
00:55:16,920 --> 00:55:19,800
Speaker 2: But what I Garuba reminds me a ton of Serge

1145
00:55:19,840 --> 00:55:22,600
Speaker 2: of Baka, and I'm hoping that that's not just because

1146
00:55:22,680 --> 00:55:25,759
Speaker 2: he's like a Spanish power forward and He's literally playing

1147
00:55:25,760 --> 00:55:27,560
Speaker 2: on the Olympics team right now, which I think speaks

1148
00:55:27,600 --> 00:55:29,360
Speaker 2: to how good of a player you are. At nineteen

1149
00:55:29,480 --> 00:55:32,160
Speaker 2: Spain is good, Like Spain might win the gold if

1150
00:55:32,280 --> 00:55:36,640
Speaker 2: USA doesn't. They're probably the favorite. So Garuba I think

1151
00:55:36,719 --> 00:55:38,839
Speaker 2: is probably the best defender in the draft right now.

1152
00:55:39,120 --> 00:55:42,640
Speaker 2: He's gonna be a classic four that can play the five,

1153
00:55:42,840 --> 00:55:45,840
Speaker 2: just kind of like Abaki eventually was. He's a monster

1154
00:55:45,920 --> 00:55:51,040
Speaker 2: shop blocker. He's he moves really smoothly latterly, so he's

1155
00:55:51,040 --> 00:55:52,800
Speaker 2: gonna be able to switch and defend on the perimeter

1156
00:55:52,880 --> 00:55:57,440
Speaker 2: while also protecting the rim. On offense. He's definitely gonna

1157
00:55:57,440 --> 00:55:59,640
Speaker 2: be like a play finisher type, like he's a center

1158
00:55:59,680 --> 00:56:01,880
Speaker 2: and off he's gonna play in the dunker spot. But

1159
00:56:02,640 --> 00:56:05,359
Speaker 2: I like that he kind of moves naturally. He gets

1160
00:56:05,360 --> 00:56:08,719
Speaker 2: into easy spots for good buckets. He doesn't really like

1161
00:56:09,160 --> 00:56:12,279
Speaker 2: being a center on offense is kind of like, you know,

1162
00:56:12,400 --> 00:56:15,080
Speaker 2: not a good thing the way that we would say that,

1163
00:56:15,239 --> 00:56:19,040
Speaker 2: but he he uses that ability well. He can pass

1164
00:56:19,040 --> 00:56:21,080
Speaker 2: on the short roll a little bit, like he can

1165
00:56:21,120 --> 00:56:23,960
Speaker 2: do enough on offense to be able to fit that. Well.

1166
00:56:24,440 --> 00:56:27,359
Speaker 2: What I'm bummed about is to me, like more and

1167
00:56:27,400 --> 00:56:31,120
Speaker 2: more NBA teams have you know that the Jokic or

1168
00:56:31,200 --> 00:56:36,600
Speaker 2: Towns or you know Vosovich that like that offensively skilled center,

1169
00:56:36,800 --> 00:56:39,480
Speaker 2: but you need some help at the four. I would

1170
00:56:39,560 --> 00:56:41,520
Speaker 2: love one of those teams to get their hands on

1171
00:56:41,640 --> 00:56:44,040
Speaker 2: Usman Garuba. I'm a Timbrels fan. I would I would

1172
00:56:44,160 --> 00:56:46,520
Speaker 2: kill to have Garuba next to Towns on my team.

1173
00:56:46,520 --> 00:56:48,600
Speaker 2: I think that's a perfect fit. And there are more

1174
00:56:48,640 --> 00:56:51,760
Speaker 2: and more teams like that. He'd be great with Evan Mobley,

1175
00:56:52,040 --> 00:56:54,400
Speaker 2: he'd be great with you know, chet Holmgren, who's one

1176
00:56:54,400 --> 00:56:56,759
Speaker 2: of the favorites for next year's number one pick. We're

1177
00:56:56,760 --> 00:57:01,400
Speaker 2: getting more skilled seven foot dudes. We'd be offensive centers,

1178
00:57:01,920 --> 00:57:04,920
Speaker 2: and I think Garuba just fits really well what the

1179
00:57:04,960 --> 00:57:07,600
Speaker 2: modern NBA defense looks like. So that's why I like

1180
00:57:07,680 --> 00:57:09,880
Speaker 2: him a lot.

1181
00:57:11,760 --> 00:57:16,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, you're out there on him, I'll say that, let's

1182
00:57:16,760 --> 00:57:20,440
Speaker 1: not Giddy. So Giddy has Risen is the late riser.

1183
00:57:21,440 --> 00:57:25,560
Speaker 3: He is now at bet MGM. The over unders as

1184
00:57:25,680 --> 00:57:28,240
Speaker 3: ten and a half. The under is minus two hundred.

1185
00:57:29,480 --> 00:57:32,960
Speaker 3: I think there's probably still value at minus two hundred

1186
00:57:32,960 --> 00:57:34,880
Speaker 3: on Giddy. I know that sounds crazy because this is

1187
00:57:34,920 --> 00:57:36,960
Speaker 3: a draft and anything can happen, and teams can do

1188
00:57:37,320 --> 00:57:38,280
Speaker 3: unpredictable things.

1189
00:57:38,360 --> 00:57:40,320
Speaker 1: I just think that there's here's a lot of it.

1190
00:57:40,680 --> 00:57:41,200
Speaker 1: There's been.

1191
00:57:41,440 --> 00:57:43,240
Speaker 3: You don't want to get caught up in my opinion

1192
00:57:43,320 --> 00:57:47,160
Speaker 3: on like Patrick Williams is one of these where last

1193
00:57:47,240 --> 00:57:50,920
Speaker 3: year he was a guy that rose very late and

1194
00:57:51,640 --> 00:57:53,600
Speaker 3: he was in my props article we advise the under

1195
00:57:54,120 --> 00:57:55,960
Speaker 3: on him and he went to the balls of four.

1196
00:57:56,880 --> 00:58:01,280
Speaker 3: A lot of it was it wasn't just the Bulls,

1197
00:58:01,480 --> 00:58:04,640
Speaker 3: it was the Bulls like him, the Pistons like him.

1198
00:58:05,080 --> 00:58:07,000
Speaker 1: Like there was about I.

1199
00:58:06,880 --> 00:58:10,400
Speaker 3: Think I remember four different teams really liked him. With Giddy,

1200
00:58:11,120 --> 00:58:14,200
Speaker 3: it's the same thing where you hear that, like the Raptors.

1201
00:58:13,800 --> 00:58:14,600
Speaker 1: Really like Giddy.

1202
00:58:14,800 --> 00:58:18,640
Speaker 3: Would I be blown away if the Raptors took him

1203
00:58:18,640 --> 00:58:20,840
Speaker 3: at four. No, if they don't get another pick and

1204
00:58:20,880 --> 00:58:23,320
Speaker 3: they're just like they go for the highest upside, I

1205
00:58:23,360 --> 00:58:26,520
Speaker 3: would not be shocked to see Giddy go four. These

1206
00:58:26,560 --> 00:58:30,120
Speaker 3: guys can slide right, Okay, see at six, which we'll

1207
00:58:30,120 --> 00:58:31,600
Speaker 3: talk about it in the second before we get out

1208
00:58:31,640 --> 00:58:34,240
Speaker 3: of here. I think they're somebody that, like I will

1209
00:58:34,240 --> 00:58:37,760
Speaker 3: not remove entirely from the equation for Giddy. Warriors at

1210
00:58:37,800 --> 00:58:42,160
Speaker 3: seven is definitely in play, and then the rest of

1211
00:58:42,160 --> 00:58:45,760
Speaker 3: it is it's Orlando again at eight, which they might trade.

1212
00:58:47,200 --> 00:58:48,080
Speaker 1: Nine. I don't think so.

1213
00:58:48,240 --> 00:58:50,320
Speaker 3: Like we talked about, I think the I think the

1214
00:58:50,360 --> 00:58:54,320
Speaker 3: Magic are zeroed in on Wagner or Shangoon.

1215
00:58:55,840 --> 00:58:58,600
Speaker 1: But at ten and a half.

1216
00:58:58,440 --> 00:59:01,280
Speaker 3: You've still got the Grizzlies if they don't move up.

1217
00:59:01,480 --> 00:59:04,360
Speaker 3: He's probably going to the Grizzlies at ten. So even

1218
00:59:04,400 --> 00:59:06,560
Speaker 3: in mis two hundred, I know you hate paying the Juwice,

1219
00:59:06,600 --> 00:59:09,360
Speaker 3: but I think Josh Giddy at minus two hundred, if

1220
00:59:09,360 --> 00:59:11,360
Speaker 3: you can get it anywhere else, I think it's probably

1221
00:59:11,400 --> 00:59:12,960
Speaker 3: worth it. The problem is that you're going to have

1222
00:59:13,000 --> 00:59:15,520
Speaker 3: a hard time finding a number that's like that you're

1223
00:59:15,520 --> 00:59:16,919
Speaker 3: going to get the kind of price that you want

1224
00:59:16,960 --> 00:59:19,280
Speaker 3: on it. Like he's higher, he's minus two h five,

1225
00:59:19,320 --> 00:59:20,760
Speaker 3: and in the book, I'm looking at ten and he's

1226
00:59:20,800 --> 00:59:22,479
Speaker 3: priced at ten and a half everywhere right.

1227
00:59:22,360 --> 00:59:26,480
Speaker 2: Now, Yeah, I don't. I don't like the Juice, and

1228
00:59:26,680 --> 00:59:30,800
Speaker 2: I'm I'm not totally sold on Giddy. Just my quick

1229
00:59:30,840 --> 00:59:33,440
Speaker 2: case against him is that he's an incredible passer. You

1230
00:59:33,560 --> 00:59:36,680
Speaker 2: make every angle, every creative pass, all the passing and

1231
00:59:36,840 --> 00:59:41,080
Speaker 2: vision and know how on the game brilliant. I don't

1232
00:59:41,080 --> 00:59:42,960
Speaker 2: trust him as a shooter. I don't trust him as

1233
00:59:43,000 --> 00:59:45,880
Speaker 2: a scorer and I don't think he defends. So we're

1234
00:59:45,880 --> 00:59:48,160
Speaker 2: back to that sort of player, like the thing that

1235
00:59:48,200 --> 00:59:50,400
Speaker 2: we everyone thought LaMelo was going to be, but he

1236
00:59:50,480 --> 00:59:52,360
Speaker 2: turned out to be a much better scorer and a

1237
00:59:52,400 --> 00:59:55,520
Speaker 2: little better defender, the thing that people thought, you know,

1238
00:59:55,640 --> 00:59:57,640
Speaker 2: still think that Rubio kind of is. But Rubio is

1239
00:59:58,040 --> 01:00:03,160
Speaker 2: a pretty solid defender also. But like that, that's my concern. However,

1240
01:00:03,240 --> 01:00:05,320
Speaker 2: he's very young. He can improve in a lot of

1241
01:00:05,360 --> 01:00:08,160
Speaker 2: those areas, and he has a lot of those you

1242
01:00:08,240 --> 01:00:10,680
Speaker 2: can't teach it sort of things about him. Here's the

1243
01:00:10,720 --> 01:00:13,040
Speaker 2: case for the Giddy under beyond all the things you said.

1244
01:00:13,800 --> 01:00:17,400
Speaker 2: Every NBA team right now is watching the Olympics and

1245
01:00:17,480 --> 01:00:19,919
Speaker 2: watching the finals we just saw, and watching the MVP

1246
01:00:20,080 --> 01:00:23,200
Speaker 2: race we just saw, and what are they seeing? International

1247
01:00:23,320 --> 01:00:27,720
Speaker 2: ball is taking over no NBA team. Every team is

1248
01:00:27,960 --> 01:00:31,880
Speaker 2: terrified of missing the next great euro Star. If you're

1249
01:00:31,920 --> 01:00:35,120
Speaker 2: an NBA GM, you're trying to keep your job and

1250
01:00:35,560 --> 01:00:37,520
Speaker 2: make sure that you don't miss out on that next

1251
01:00:37,560 --> 01:00:41,160
Speaker 2: euro Star. And right now, Giddy is the hot name

1252
01:00:41,600 --> 01:00:44,040
Speaker 2: and he's the like, oh, it's the next big wing

1253
01:00:44,520 --> 01:00:48,120
Speaker 2: passer from Europe, Like oh, look at Luka Doncic lighting

1254
01:00:48,160 --> 01:00:50,920
Speaker 2: up the Olympics right now. This this is like it's

1255
01:00:50,920 --> 01:00:53,680
Speaker 2: almost like there's a pure pressure to don't be the

1256
01:00:53,680 --> 01:00:56,760
Speaker 2: one that screwed up and passed on the next euro Star.

1257
01:00:57,360 --> 01:01:00,520
Speaker 2: And I think that that is going to push up

1258
01:01:00,520 --> 01:01:02,880
Speaker 2: the boards. And I still I don't want to pay

1259
01:01:02,880 --> 01:01:05,240
Speaker 2: the two hundred the minus two hundred on the juice,

1260
01:01:05,480 --> 01:01:07,200
Speaker 2: But to me, that's the case I think for it

1261
01:01:07,240 --> 01:01:09,880
Speaker 2: is just the international star. These guys are going to

1262
01:01:09,920 --> 01:01:12,040
Speaker 2: go higher, I think than they should have because people

1263
01:01:12,080 --> 01:01:13,000
Speaker 2: don't want to miss them.

1264
01:01:13,080 --> 01:01:14,920
Speaker 1: What is the most you will pay on juice? Brandon?

1265
01:01:14,920 --> 01:01:16,040
Speaker 1: What is the most you will pay?

1266
01:01:17,280 --> 01:01:20,480
Speaker 2: Well, so it depends on the sort of the sort

1267
01:01:20,520 --> 01:01:22,360
Speaker 2: of bet Like on props this year, I would do

1268
01:01:22,840 --> 01:01:25,440
Speaker 2: minus one twenty one fifty one seventy five and not

1269
01:01:25,560 --> 01:01:28,120
Speaker 2: think twice. The difference on props is it's a math

1270
01:01:28,160 --> 01:01:30,320
Speaker 2: game to me, and it's like, Okay, what's the percentage

1271
01:01:30,400 --> 01:01:33,360
Speaker 2: this is hitting versus what's the percentage implied on just

1272
01:01:33,400 --> 01:01:35,160
Speaker 2: a straight like does this thing happen?

1273
01:01:35,560 --> 01:01:35,760
Speaker 1: Yeah?

1274
01:01:35,920 --> 01:01:37,880
Speaker 2: I don't have any idea how to how to place

1275
01:01:37,920 --> 01:01:41,520
Speaker 2: in my mind, will Getty sixty seven percent or better

1276
01:01:41,640 --> 01:01:44,080
Speaker 2: be into the top ten? I have no way to

1277
01:01:44,120 --> 01:01:47,040
Speaker 2: measure that, and so yeah, I don't know, like that's

1278
01:01:47,040 --> 01:01:50,680
Speaker 2: the risk. I'll say that I would rather take my

1279
01:01:50,880 --> 01:01:53,520
Speaker 2: one bet at the minus two hundred and bet like

1280
01:01:53,600 --> 01:01:56,200
Speaker 2: two half units on like the thirty five to one

1281
01:01:56,320 --> 01:01:58,800
Speaker 2: kid to go number two, and just like I just

1282
01:01:58,800 --> 01:02:01,200
Speaker 2: would rather do that and and hope that I eventually

1283
01:02:01,280 --> 01:02:06,360
Speaker 2: hit a couple. It's you're always looking for the big one.

1284
01:02:06,800 --> 01:02:12,520
Speaker 1: Uh, book Night, Yeah, it's frustrating to me.

1285
01:02:12,720 --> 01:02:17,680
Speaker 3: I don't understand why this, Like, Okay, here here's kind

1286
01:02:17,680 --> 01:02:20,880
Speaker 3: of the deal with book Night. Book Night had an

1287
01:02:20,960 --> 01:02:24,640
Speaker 3: incredible workout one on oh I should mention a one

1288
01:02:24,640 --> 01:02:27,040
Speaker 3: on oh workout with a bunch of people in attendance

1289
01:02:27,080 --> 01:02:29,200
Speaker 3: at the combine and blew a bunch of people away.

1290
01:02:30,120 --> 01:02:34,520
Speaker 3: And what I've got, Uh, you were the second person

1291
01:02:34,600 --> 01:02:37,919
Speaker 3: that at the Jon Ling comparison. And when I've talked

1292
01:02:37,920 --> 01:02:47,280
Speaker 3: about this, so he does this workout. The analytics hate him.

1293
01:02:47,440 --> 01:02:49,920
Speaker 3: He shot thirty percent from three last year. There's no

1294
01:02:50,000 --> 01:02:52,040
Speaker 3: evidence that he's going to be like a really quality

1295
01:02:52,040 --> 01:02:55,920
Speaker 3: shooter mathematically, so there's they don't like him from that perspective.

1296
01:02:55,920 --> 01:02:59,200
Speaker 3: We talking about guard the can't shoot draft. Twitter is

1297
01:02:59,200 --> 01:03:00,960
Speaker 3: not high on him. The consultants I talked to are

1298
01:03:00,960 --> 01:03:03,040
Speaker 3: not high on him. Every exact I've talked to is

1299
01:03:03,120 --> 01:03:06,280
Speaker 3: very high on him, extremely high. He has publicly said

1300
01:03:06,280 --> 01:03:08,840
Speaker 3: he had dinner with Sam Presty, which has a lot

1301
01:03:08,840 --> 01:03:12,040
Speaker 3: of people being like penciling him in at six, he's

1302
01:03:12,120 --> 01:03:13,240
Speaker 3: over under is six.

1303
01:03:13,080 --> 01:03:15,760
Speaker 1: And a half.

1304
01:03:16,600 --> 01:03:20,680
Speaker 3: This is I will ultimately tell you that I think

1305
01:03:20,720 --> 01:03:23,280
Speaker 3: this is a stay away. That at six and a

1306
01:03:23,320 --> 01:03:25,640
Speaker 3: half it's the under his minus one thirty five. The

1307
01:03:25,720 --> 01:03:29,040
Speaker 3: over is plus one ten. I will ultimately say that

1308
01:03:29,080 --> 01:03:31,240
Speaker 3: I think this is a stay away. Because the noise

1309
01:03:31,320 --> 01:03:33,560
Speaker 3: is so strong on him, I can't recommend the under.

1310
01:03:34,440 --> 01:03:40,320
Speaker 3: But all of my analysis or analysis based sources say over.

1311
01:03:41,680 --> 01:03:44,920
Speaker 3: A lot of it comes down to, Okay, he's not

1312
01:03:44,960 --> 01:03:46,880
Speaker 3: going one, he's not going two, he's not going three,

1313
01:03:46,960 --> 01:03:53,880
Speaker 3: he's not going four. When we get the five, maybe

1314
01:03:54,080 --> 01:03:58,480
Speaker 3: like maybe the magic go in another direction and they

1315
01:03:58,480 --> 01:04:02,000
Speaker 3: go five. Maybe Barnes fall and book Night jumps over

1316
01:04:02,120 --> 01:04:08,760
Speaker 3: over over Barns. There's an assumption for him at six

1317
01:04:09,880 --> 01:04:10,760
Speaker 3: which I hate.

1318
01:04:11,400 --> 01:04:13,600
Speaker 1: Six is Okac. Two things.

1319
01:04:13,760 --> 01:04:17,240
Speaker 3: One, the worst cap secret is that Okay, see like

1320
01:04:17,240 --> 01:04:18,920
Speaker 3: a lot of teams, like a lot of teams, but

1321
01:04:18,960 --> 01:04:22,600
Speaker 3: more especially Okac desperately wants to move up, like they

1322
01:04:22,600 --> 01:04:27,080
Speaker 3: want they want a top four pick. They don't want

1323
01:04:27,360 --> 01:04:29,440
Speaker 3: eighteen hundred picks. They'd rather move up and get a

1324
01:04:29,480 --> 01:04:32,160
Speaker 3: better one. And so they've offered like a lot of

1325
01:04:32,200 --> 01:04:36,160
Speaker 3: stuff to try and move up. Okay, and if somebody does,

1326
01:04:36,200 --> 01:04:40,400
Speaker 3: somebody trade down to take Booknight, I have a hard

1327
01:04:40,480 --> 01:04:45,040
Speaker 3: time seeing it. It's not impossible, but I have a

1328
01:04:45,080 --> 01:04:49,160
Speaker 3: hard time seeing it. You could just if you're four

1329
01:04:49,240 --> 01:04:54,400
Speaker 3: or five, just take Sugs or Barns. If you're three

1330
01:04:54,720 --> 01:04:57,080
Speaker 3: and you're the Calves who have talked about moving down,

1331
01:04:58,800 --> 01:05:01,640
Speaker 3: you trade down in you're losing Sexton and you get

1332
01:05:01,680 --> 01:05:06,520
Speaker 3: book Night, and so then becomes just like Oka see

1333
01:05:07,200 --> 01:05:09,320
Speaker 3: Okaysee's draft room, I think is tighter than any others

1334
01:05:09,320 --> 01:05:11,560
Speaker 3: in the league. There's less intel coming out other than anything,

1335
01:05:11,600 --> 01:05:13,720
Speaker 3: there's people in that, like most people in the Thunder

1336
01:05:13,800 --> 01:05:15,240
Speaker 3: organization don't have any idea.

1337
01:05:15,240 --> 01:05:16,920
Speaker 1: They're just it's sectioned off, like the.

1338
01:05:16,920 --> 01:05:21,640
Speaker 3: Draft talk is like purposely their war room is purposefully quarantined,

1339
01:05:21,880 --> 01:05:25,040
Speaker 3: not from the usual sense these days, but to make

1340
01:05:25,080 --> 01:05:26,680
Speaker 3: sure that leaks don't get out. There's just like not

1341
01:05:26,680 --> 01:05:30,600
Speaker 3: a lot of information, so you don't have any sort

1342
01:05:30,640 --> 01:05:32,720
Speaker 3: I don't have any like I don't try. You're you're

1343
01:05:32,720 --> 01:05:35,520
Speaker 3: basing it off. If he went to dinner with Sam Presty,

1344
01:05:35,720 --> 01:05:37,520
Speaker 3: Sam Presty's gonna telegraph.

1345
01:05:37,120 --> 01:05:41,280
Speaker 1: What he does. That doesn't sound right. So like, I'm

1346
01:05:41,280 --> 01:05:43,760
Speaker 1: more concerned about cominga at six the Book Night.

1347
01:05:45,120 --> 01:05:51,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I agree, I I it. I agree one

1348
01:05:51,360 --> 01:05:53,919
Speaker 2: hundred percent. Everything that you just said Book Night six

1349
01:05:53,960 --> 01:05:56,600
Speaker 2: point five makes no sense to me. We we had

1350
01:05:56,680 --> 01:05:59,080
Speaker 2: we talked for like ten minutes a while ago about

1351
01:05:59,080 --> 01:06:01,840
Speaker 2: how we know what the top five guys are. Five

1352
01:06:01,960 --> 01:06:04,600
Speaker 2: is only one less than six. All that leaves left

1353
01:06:04,680 --> 01:06:07,440
Speaker 2: is one spot for Booknight to sneak in, And it

1354
01:06:08,200 --> 01:06:10,800
Speaker 2: doesn't make sense. He doesn't make sense to Oklahoma City.

1355
01:06:10,800 --> 01:06:12,840
Speaker 2: It doesn't make sense that we would know, of all

1356
01:06:12,880 --> 01:06:15,720
Speaker 2: teams the Thunders pick. That's just not a thing that

1357
01:06:15,760 --> 01:06:19,160
Speaker 2: has ever happened. That's you know, they make out their

1358
01:06:19,200 --> 01:06:22,200
Speaker 2: picks every time that we never see coming every like

1359
01:06:22,760 --> 01:06:27,640
Speaker 2: it's such an obvious, such a clear play that it

1360
01:06:27,760 --> 01:06:30,320
Speaker 2: makes me not want to play it because it just

1361
01:06:30,320 --> 01:06:33,360
Speaker 2: see it seems like like when you look at a

1362
01:06:33,400 --> 01:06:35,880
Speaker 2: thing and you're like, hey, guys, free money, free money

1363
01:06:35,880 --> 01:06:38,720
Speaker 2: on Booknight over six point five. This this screams free

1364
01:06:38,760 --> 01:06:41,960
Speaker 2: money to me, and free money is never free. I'm

1365
01:06:42,000 --> 01:06:45,480
Speaker 2: seeing like the the meme, it's a trap like it.

1366
01:06:45,920 --> 01:06:48,600
Speaker 2: It looks so easy and so clear to me that

1367
01:06:48,680 --> 01:06:51,720
Speaker 2: I'm just like, you know what, maybe they know about

1368
01:06:51,720 --> 01:06:54,240
Speaker 2: a trade up that's lined up. Maybe I don't know

1369
01:06:54,280 --> 01:06:57,400
Speaker 2: what somebody knows, but it's more than I know, and

1370
01:06:58,440 --> 01:07:01,400
Speaker 2: I just everything it's like that is such a strong

1371
01:07:01,520 --> 01:07:04,160
Speaker 2: play that makes no sense and I can't. I can't

1372
01:07:04,200 --> 01:07:05,600
Speaker 2: do it.

1373
01:07:05,640 --> 01:07:07,400
Speaker 1: Is there too, boor Gather?

1374
01:07:07,480 --> 01:07:09,080
Speaker 3: Are there any of the props that you really feel

1375
01:07:09,120 --> 01:07:11,720
Speaker 3: strongly about.

1376
01:07:12,120 --> 01:07:14,440
Speaker 2: You know, things that have been They keep moving around

1377
01:07:14,440 --> 01:07:16,160
Speaker 2: so much that I don't know if I have another

1378
01:07:16,200 --> 01:07:18,080
Speaker 2: one that jumps out to me, because the numbers keep

1379
01:07:18,080 --> 01:07:22,040
Speaker 2: moving around. I haven't definitely Definitely Springer is one that

1380
01:07:22,040 --> 01:07:25,400
Speaker 2: I'll be looking at. I've got to look a little

1381
01:07:25,400 --> 01:07:27,600
Speaker 2: bit more today, because you know, I have to. I

1382
01:07:27,640 --> 01:07:29,480
Speaker 2: have to be careful with the guys I really like

1383
01:07:29,640 --> 01:07:32,360
Speaker 2: versus It doesn't matter who I like, It just matters

1384
01:07:32,360 --> 01:07:34,160
Speaker 2: what the NBA is going to actually do, So I've

1385
01:07:34,160 --> 01:07:36,040
Speaker 2: got to be careful with that. I've been doing a

1386
01:07:36,040 --> 01:07:39,240
Speaker 2: lot of my personal mock board and everything. So who

1387
01:07:39,280 --> 01:07:39,880
Speaker 2: else do you like?

1388
01:07:40,520 --> 01:07:40,680
Speaker 1: Uh?

1389
01:07:41,040 --> 01:07:42,640
Speaker 2: Do Sumnu has.

1390
01:07:43,160 --> 01:07:45,920
Speaker 3: Dosumu has an over under of twenty six and a half.

1391
01:07:46,920 --> 01:07:49,760
Speaker 3: Ioh Has has twenty six and a half. I think

1392
01:07:49,800 --> 01:07:52,920
Speaker 3: that's an under my understanding. There was word earlier in

1393
01:07:52,920 --> 01:07:54,880
Speaker 3: the week that he doesn't get past twenty two with

1394
01:07:54,920 --> 01:07:55,440
Speaker 3: the Lakers.

1395
01:07:55,520 --> 01:07:58,120
Speaker 1: However, however, there are two other.

1396
01:07:58,000 --> 01:08:01,240
Speaker 3: Names that are associated with the Lakers right now, so that like,

1397
01:08:01,680 --> 01:08:04,200
Speaker 3: maybe they liked him and moved on, and that may

1398
01:08:04,240 --> 01:08:05,080
Speaker 3: just be agent noise.

1399
01:08:05,600 --> 01:08:06,840
Speaker 1: I do think that your gap there.

1400
01:08:07,040 --> 01:08:09,240
Speaker 3: I want some cushion with all these So if I

1401
01:08:09,320 --> 01:08:12,280
Speaker 3: hear like hey, teams nineteen and twenty and twenty two

1402
01:08:12,480 --> 01:08:19,080
Speaker 3: like him, then at that point, if my number is

1403
01:08:19,120 --> 01:08:20,760
Speaker 3: twenty six and a half, I've still got four more

1404
01:08:20,840 --> 01:08:23,759
Speaker 3: spots and that gives me like a little bit of

1405
01:08:23,800 --> 01:08:29,400
Speaker 3: a breathing room. Isaiah Jackson is his over under is

1406
01:08:29,439 --> 01:08:32,120
Speaker 3: twenty and a half. I think probably over it's juice

1407
01:08:32,160 --> 01:08:35,400
Speaker 3: of minus one twenty. I think he's more likely to

1408
01:08:35,439 --> 01:08:39,040
Speaker 3: go Nicks at twenty one than he is anything higher.

1409
01:08:39,479 --> 01:08:40,800
Speaker 3: I just don't think bigs are going to be in

1410
01:08:40,840 --> 01:08:42,479
Speaker 3: that big of a demand this year.

1411
01:08:42,479 --> 01:08:43,040
Speaker 1: I think we're.

1412
01:08:43,080 --> 01:08:45,840
Speaker 2: What what if the next thing at nineteen though, that's

1413
01:08:45,840 --> 01:08:47,559
Speaker 2: the problem there because if we think the Knicks are

1414
01:08:47,560 --> 01:08:49,559
Speaker 2: taking which order do they take those two in?

1415
01:08:50,000 --> 01:08:55,080
Speaker 3: Well, I guess, like, here's the question, is man Butler's

1416
01:08:55,080 --> 01:08:58,080
Speaker 3: not on the board at bet MGM. That's a pain.

1417
01:08:58,960 --> 01:09:02,800
Speaker 3: Butler's also better Jim but well, no, he's off the

1418
01:09:02,800 --> 01:09:03,479
Speaker 3: board everywhere.

1419
01:09:03,640 --> 01:09:04,760
Speaker 1: Jared Butler is off the ball.

1420
01:09:06,000 --> 01:09:09,280
Speaker 2: I was he's got he's got some some injury red flags.

1421
01:09:09,320 --> 01:09:11,439
Speaker 2: I think that was scaring some teams away. So I

1422
01:09:11,439 --> 01:09:13,000
Speaker 2: wonder if that's the reason he's off the board.

1423
01:09:13,080 --> 01:09:15,040
Speaker 3: No, they's well, he does, Yeah, he does have an

1424
01:09:15,080 --> 01:09:17,240
Speaker 3: injury concern, that's true. He does have another injury concern

1425
01:09:17,280 --> 01:09:21,200
Speaker 3: that's going to cause some issues I think with his

1426
01:09:21,200 --> 01:09:23,880
Speaker 3: his stock. But I would say that like, if you

1427
01:09:24,040 --> 01:09:26,320
Speaker 3: like the under on Isaiah Jackson, you should go over

1428
01:09:26,400 --> 01:09:29,800
Speaker 3: on Jared Butler. If you like the uh under on

1429
01:09:29,880 --> 01:09:31,840
Speaker 3: Jared Butler, you should like the over on Isaiah Jackson.

1430
01:09:31,840 --> 01:09:34,640
Speaker 3: I'm not saying that the teams lower can't reach for

1431
01:09:34,680 --> 01:09:36,760
Speaker 3: those guys. I would just think like they are most

1432
01:09:36,760 --> 01:09:41,280
Speaker 3: associated with those guys, so I think those are good.

1433
01:09:41,320 --> 01:09:42,960
Speaker 3: I think Corey Kispert at thirteen and a half is

1434
01:09:43,000 --> 01:09:46,599
Speaker 3: too sharp. His over is juice minus one sixty five.

1435
01:09:46,680 --> 01:09:49,000
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be shocked if he went higher. I think

1436
01:09:49,040 --> 01:09:50,080
Speaker 3: he profiles pretty well.

1437
01:09:50,640 --> 01:09:50,760
Speaker 1: Uh.

1438
01:09:51,280 --> 01:09:54,160
Speaker 3: Duarte is slid. He was being talked about as like

1439
01:09:54,200 --> 01:09:56,200
Speaker 3: a potential lottery pick. I think he's sliding. I think

1440
01:09:56,200 --> 01:09:58,280
Speaker 3: one of the reasons is because Davion Mitchell is sliding.

1441
01:09:58,280 --> 01:09:58,439
Speaker 2: Two.

1442
01:10:00,200 --> 01:10:04,559
Speaker 3: Davion Mitchell is His over under is twelve and a half.

1443
01:10:04,920 --> 01:10:06,760
Speaker 3: The twelve and a half is plus one hundred. I'm

1444
01:10:06,800 --> 01:10:11,120
Speaker 3: going to bet the over it at plus one hundred.

1445
01:10:12,160 --> 01:10:14,439
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think my general m O when I'm looking

1446
01:10:14,439 --> 01:10:17,240
Speaker 2: for plays right now is going to be looking for

1447
01:10:17,360 --> 01:10:20,280
Speaker 2: guys in that like where they're over under is somewhere

1448
01:10:20,280 --> 01:10:22,200
Speaker 2: in like the six to twenty range, And I'm looking

1449
01:10:22,200 --> 01:10:26,120
Speaker 2: for overs just because my generalm is that this is

1450
01:10:26,160 --> 01:10:27,600
Speaker 2: just going to be wonky. Guys are going to go

1451
01:10:27,600 --> 01:10:29,640
Speaker 2: all over the place, So I'm looking for that like

1452
01:10:29,720 --> 01:10:32,200
Speaker 2: six to twenty five range and thinking that the guys

1453
01:10:32,240 --> 01:10:34,600
Speaker 2: projected at the back of it might go sooner, and

1454
01:10:34,880 --> 01:10:37,360
Speaker 2: especially that the guys earlier might end up going later.

1455
01:10:37,439 --> 01:10:39,080
Speaker 2: I just think it's going to be a weird mix

1456
01:10:39,080 --> 01:10:40,400
Speaker 2: in the middle of the first round.

1457
01:10:40,840 --> 01:10:42,400
Speaker 3: I don't know how to pronounce this gentleman's name, and

1458
01:10:42,400 --> 01:10:44,479
Speaker 3: I apologize I need to learn these things before the draft.

1459
01:10:44,520 --> 01:10:46,760
Speaker 3: I understand that this is a personal failing that I'm

1460
01:10:46,760 --> 01:10:51,680
Speaker 3: admitting to rocas Joku bitis.

1461
01:10:51,320 --> 01:10:52,880
Speaker 2: Jock gobitis is how I've heard it.

1462
01:10:52,920 --> 01:10:56,240
Speaker 3: I think Bidas his over unders forty three and a half.

1463
01:10:56,520 --> 01:10:57,920
Speaker 3: He's got a first round interest.

1464
01:10:58,880 --> 01:11:01,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I like the under on that one. I've

1465
01:11:01,960 --> 01:11:03,880
Speaker 2: seen him in a lot of like high second rounders,

1466
01:11:03,920 --> 01:11:06,439
Speaker 2: where a lot of international kind of draft um stash guys,

1467
01:11:06,439 --> 01:11:08,240
Speaker 2: which I think he might be as well.

1468
01:11:08,320 --> 01:11:11,760
Speaker 3: Somn Treyman twenty four and a half is too sharp.

1469
01:11:11,760 --> 01:11:13,160
Speaker 3: I think he's a great shooter. I think whoever gets

1470
01:11:13,360 --> 01:11:14,680
Speaker 3: is going to get a good pick. But I think

1471
01:11:14,720 --> 01:11:16,400
Speaker 3: the twenty four and a half is too sharp. I

1472
01:11:16,400 --> 01:11:18,519
Speaker 3: think he's right in that range. Like I wouldn't be

1473
01:11:18,520 --> 01:11:20,200
Speaker 3: shocked if he went twenty six of the nuggets that

1474
01:11:20,200 --> 01:11:22,439
Speaker 3: would be And I don't let the over enough because

1475
01:11:22,439 --> 01:11:22,760
Speaker 3: I think.

1476
01:11:22,680 --> 01:11:26,599
Speaker 1: He is maybe the best shooter of that group. Primo

1477
01:11:26,720 --> 01:11:29,400
Speaker 1: is an interesting one at twenty seven and a half.

1478
01:11:29,439 --> 01:11:33,679
Speaker 1: He's just both sides even I think that that that one,

1479
01:11:33,840 --> 01:11:35,280
Speaker 1: the under I think is kind of missing. I think

1480
01:11:35,360 --> 01:11:37,840
Speaker 1: Primo might go a little lot. You like him too,

1481
01:11:37,880 --> 01:11:38,920
Speaker 1: he was playing the draft too.

1482
01:11:39,160 --> 01:11:41,559
Speaker 2: No, I actually don't. I just don't know enough about him.

1483
01:11:41,560 --> 01:11:43,360
Speaker 2: I never thought he was a draft prospect and then

1484
01:11:43,360 --> 01:11:45,880
Speaker 2: he declared much earlier than I thought. But youngest guy,

1485
01:11:45,960 --> 01:11:48,000
Speaker 2: so there's definitely upside there. J T.

1486
01:11:48,120 --> 01:11:50,439
Speaker 1: Thor is my last one under thirty one and a half.

1487
01:11:50,479 --> 01:11:51,959
Speaker 1: I'm gonna bet yeah.

1488
01:11:52,040 --> 01:11:53,880
Speaker 2: I love J. T. Thorer. I've got him near a

1489
01:11:53,960 --> 01:11:55,880
Speaker 2: lottery for me. He's definitely not going to go near

1490
01:11:55,920 --> 01:11:59,280
Speaker 2: a lottery, but I can see some like Pascal siakam

1491
01:11:59,320 --> 01:12:02,479
Speaker 2: development career there. Just a guy with a lot of

1492
01:12:02,720 --> 01:12:06,760
Speaker 2: defensive skills, like a deep tool set. So yeah, I

1493
01:12:06,800 --> 01:12:08,439
Speaker 2: definitely am looking at his under for sure.

1494
01:12:08,800 --> 01:12:10,559
Speaker 3: All right's gona wrap it up for the Action Network

1495
01:12:10,640 --> 01:12:13,000
Speaker 3: NBA Draft Preview. Thank you for joining us so you

1496
01:12:13,000 --> 01:12:15,479
Speaker 3: can follow Brandon and all his props and everything as

1497
01:12:15,560 --> 01:12:17,760
Speaker 3: NFL coverage and everything else in the Action Network. We

1498
01:12:17,800 --> 01:12:19,679
Speaker 3: will talk to you guys again next time. A first

1499
01:12:19,880 --> 01:12:22,960
Speaker 3: heads up, several new podcasts are debuting next week from

1500
01:12:23,040 --> 01:12:27,439
Speaker 3: the Action Network, including one dedicated just for NBA betting.

1501
01:12:27,760 --> 01:12:28,880
Speaker 1: So to hear me and the rest of.

1502
01:12:28,880 --> 01:12:31,160
Speaker 3: Our crew going forward, you need to subscribe to a

1503
01:12:31,200 --> 01:12:33,320
Speaker 3: new podcast debuting next week.

1504
01:12:33,360 --> 01:12:34,440
Speaker 1: It'll be called buckets.

1505
01:12:34,720 --> 01:12:37,320
Speaker 3: But we'll announce and make that official announcement right here

1506
01:12:37,520 --> 01:12:39,559
Speaker 3: on the Action Network podcast feed next week, and we'll

1507
01:12:39,560 --> 01:12:41,559
Speaker 3: get you guys a link so you can subscribe and

1508
01:12:41,640 --> 01:12:42,639
Speaker 3: not miss an episode.

1509
01:12:42,880 --> 01:12:43,519
Speaker 1: Stay tuned,