WEBVTT - Trump’s Win Is Tale of Widespread Discontent

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck on Bloomberg Radio Well.

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<v Speaker 1>Earlier today, President Joe Biden expressed hope that Americans can

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<v Speaker 1>quote lower the temperature and reaffirm their faith in the

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<v Speaker 1>election system after a contentious campaign that saw Republican President

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<v Speaker 1>elect Donald Trump secure a sweeping victory. The former president

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<v Speaker 1>did say that campaigns are a contest of competing visions

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<v Speaker 1>or the current president I should say, a country chooses

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<v Speaker 1>one or the other. He said, we accept the choice

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<v Speaker 1>the country made. And he said many times, as he

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<v Speaker 1>said many times, you can't love your country only when

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<v Speaker 1>you win. Well, it will take some time for the

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<v Speaker 1>history books to write the story of this presidential election,

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<v Speaker 1>but Bloomberg BusinessWeek editor Bradstone offers an assessment today of

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<v Speaker 1>what propelled Donald Trump to a decisive victory. Brad is

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<v Speaker 1>a Bloomberg BusinessWeek editor. He's also the author of four books,

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<v Speaker 1>including New York Times bestseller Amazon un Bound, Jeff Based

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<v Speaker 1>and the Invention of a Global Empire. He joins us

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<v Speaker 1>from our San Francisco bureau. Brad, you write that Trump's

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<v Speaker 1>decisive twenty twenty four win against Kamala Harris looks less

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<v Speaker 1>like the polished narrative Gemstone it will inevitably become and

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<v Speaker 1>more like an unwieldy clump of muddy economic explanations and

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<v Speaker 1>gross political blind spots. What are the muddy economic explanations?

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<v Speaker 1>I want to start there?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, thanks Tim Oh And first of all, great interview

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<v Speaker 2>with Kathy Wood. I think you very interesting stuff. Well, look,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, we always look back on our elections and

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<v Speaker 2>sort of contemplate a pithy summation of what happened. So

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<v Speaker 2>Trump in twenty sixteen kind of bringing Americans to reject

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<v Speaker 2>Obama's globalist optimism. You know, you can go back Obama

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<v Speaker 2>his message of hope after the Great Recession, and so

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<v Speaker 2>I was really kind of thinking about, well, what are

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<v Speaker 2>we going to take from this, And the most obvious explanation,

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<v Speaker 2>the big one that stands out, is that people were

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<v Speaker 2>just just dissatisfied with the current state of things economically.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, you had a president deep underwater and Biden

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<v Speaker 2>his popularity is approval rating at forty one percent. Twenty

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<v Speaker 2>six percent of Americans dissatisfied with the direction of the company.

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<v Speaker 2>That's the easiest and most obvious explanation. But when I

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<v Speaker 2>talk about the kind of muddy factors, I mean, there's

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<v Speaker 2>just so much we don't know the fact that Vice

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<v Speaker 2>President Harris lost ground with Latino voters, non college educated,

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<v Speaker 2>female voters, young voters. I mean, there's clearly something else

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<v Speaker 2>going on here, and I think it will take a

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<v Speaker 2>while for us to really look at the data and

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<v Speaker 2>understand what went on.

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<v Speaker 1>One thing that's really striking to me again, the data

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<v Speaker 1>is still continuing to sort of come out here, Brad,

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<v Speaker 1>and there's been a lot of hand ringing by a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of different groups here at this point. But turnout

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<v Speaker 1>just wasn't there, even on the Republican side in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of gross numbers compared to twenty twenty. Do you have

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<v Speaker 1>any idea what happened there?

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, it's yeah, it's I mean, maybe there's a

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<v Speaker 2>little bit of political exhaustion. I mean the Vice president,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, talked a little bit about that on the

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<v Speaker 2>campaign trail. You know, in twenty twenty, the election we're

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<v Speaker 2>comparing it to we were in the very midst of

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<v Speaker 2>the pandemic. You know, maybe there weren't all that many

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<v Speaker 2>alternatives at the time to getting engaged in the electoral

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<v Speaker 2>process and voting. You know, there might have just been

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<v Speaker 2>something about the options and the candidates that voters had

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<v Speaker 2>to turn them off. So no, I think, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>when when you look, particularly on the Democratic side, the

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<v Speaker 2>depressed voter turnout was a major factor behind the across

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<v Speaker 2>the board defeats Brad.

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<v Speaker 1>You know what's really striking to me, And we actually

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<v Speaker 1>heard this from Jay Powell over and over again this afternoon.

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<v Speaker 1>He talked about how good of an economy it is

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<v Speaker 1>right now, spot firing on all cylinders, inflations coming back

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<v Speaker 1>to two percent, the unemployment rate is pretty in balance

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<v Speaker 1>with where he wants it to be. That's not the

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<v Speaker 1>that I got in terms of this election. That's not

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<v Speaker 1>the message that voters sent, especially in those swing states.

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<v Speaker 1>What's the misery index? And explain how you looked at that.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, Bloomberg had I thought a very prescient article about

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<v Speaker 2>a week ago that talked about how uneven that economic

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<v Speaker 2>recovery was and that despite the overall positive kind of

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<v Speaker 2>macro numbers on jobs, on inflation, on gas prices, that

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<v Speaker 2>you know, there are pockets of unhappiness. And we looked

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<v Speaker 2>at the swing states where you know, states like Wisconsin

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<v Speaker 2>or Michigan, Ohio, states that did vote for President Trump,

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<v Speaker 2>where the misery index, as you say to him, that

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<v Speaker 2>combination of inflation data unemployment data is still very high.

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<v Speaker 2>And so there are things like population declines in some counties,

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<v Speaker 2>still a stumbling recovery, high unemployment numbers that were clearly

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<v Speaker 2>fueling the dissatisfaction that may have turned the election.

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<v Speaker 1>It's so interesting because it seems like the chattering class

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<v Speaker 1>kind of thought that presidential candidate, who has been accused

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<v Speaker 1>of so many different things, who has been determined by

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<v Speaker 1>a court to actually be a fellon thirty four different counts,

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<v Speaker 1>and has had so many struggles at least with the

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<v Speaker 1>law over the last few years, oversaw not really what

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<v Speaker 1>he would say, but no question that he was there

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<v Speaker 1>on January sixth, and all the comments that he's made

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<v Speaker 1>about that have been well documented. But that just didn't

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<v Speaker 1>matter at all in the end to voters.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, certainly not to a majority of the voters that

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<v Speaker 2>turned out in the selection. You know, maybe it did

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<v Speaker 2>propel some to stay home.

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<v Speaker 1>You know.

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<v Speaker 2>It may also be that people have short term memories.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, my colleague Mark Million writes today in the

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<v Speaker 2>BusinessWeek newsletter about nostalgia. Nostalgia can be a powerful political force,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, make America great again. Reagan's shining City on

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<v Speaker 2>a hill, evoking these memories. So, you know, nostalgia as

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<v Speaker 2>a political force. I kind of like the idea, but

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<v Speaker 2>it also maybe suggests that specific memories aren't as powerful

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<v Speaker 2>as these vague memories of a greater time, and that

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<v Speaker 2>in talking about making America great again and all the

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<v Speaker 2>implicit things in that statement, you know, that Trump is

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<v Speaker 2>distracting people from the specifics of maybe how they felt

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<v Speaker 2>about his leadership during the pandemic, how they felt about

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<v Speaker 2>some of his you know, crimes alleged and otherwise, and

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<v Speaker 2>brought their attention more on, you know, restoring this sense,

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<v Speaker 2>maybe illusory, that he can help, you know, bring America

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<v Speaker 2>back to some previous greatness.

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<v Speaker 1>So so, you know, I'm wondering about sort of the lesson,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's not our job to sort of give a

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<v Speaker 1>lesson to democrats here. But as I mentioned, there's a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of hand ringing going on, and we've written about that.

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<v Speaker 1>It's it's been well documented. But the day morning or

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<v Speaker 1>the Wednesday morning quarterbacking there should have, would have could

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<v Speaker 1>have it sort of seems like, in hindsight, some of

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<v Speaker 1>it actually went back to the current president's decision to

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<v Speaker 1>continue running until that became untenable.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, look, I mean, Tim, I'm not a political analyst

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<v Speaker 2>by any means, but you know I would say this.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, first of all, the margin of the victory,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, for Trump was so big that you know,

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<v Speaker 2>perhaps any one factor might not have even had made

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<v Speaker 2>a difference. And too, you know, the Democratic Party, you

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<v Speaker 2>know the fact that there is no longer a chance

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<v Speaker 2>or a hope of changing minds in Ohio, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>my home state, or Florida used to be a swing state.

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<v Speaker 2>The fact that the Democratic Party doesn't speak to you know,

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<v Speaker 2>middle class or lower class voters in states like Arkansas

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<v Speaker 2>or Oklahoma, you know where you know, arguably voters there

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<v Speaker 2>might appreciate some factors of the Democratic agenda, raising the

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<v Speaker 2>you know, the minimum wage, restoring protection for healthcare and insurance.

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<v Speaker 2>You know that they that the Democrats rely on, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>three Midwestern swing states, the so called blue Wall, or

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<v Speaker 2>hope to turn Arizona or Nevada or North Carolina. It

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<v Speaker 2>just feels like there needs to be an overhaul, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>a rebalancing of expectations in the Democratic Party if they

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<v Speaker 2>really hope to compete going forward.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, you know, it's funny you mentioned blue Wall, but

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<v Speaker 1>I've heard people say they might need to rechange or

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<v Speaker 1>change the name of that given what's happened in the

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<v Speaker 1>last three elections, whereas Democrats only won the Blue Wall

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<v Speaker 1>states in one of those last three, and that was

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<v Speaker 1>in twenty twenty. Hey, I wanted to talk about with

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<v Speaker 1>you some of the other stories that you and the

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<v Speaker 1>team over at Bloomberg BusinessWeek have been highlighting in recent days.

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<v Speaker 1>There's been a lot of handwringing about polling and the

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<v Speaker 1>idea that every poll that we got, save for a

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<v Speaker 1>couple polls that people thought were outliers at the time,

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<v Speaker 1>really showed this race neck and neck a coin flip.

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<v Speaker 1>It's pretty remarkable to see. You're the team Chadwick Matlin

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<v Speaker 1>and Alex Tanzy argue that even though there was a

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<v Speaker 1>red wave, we shouldn't be blaming the polls. What's going

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<v Speaker 1>on here.

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<v Speaker 2>I may not be so charitable as Alex and Chad

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<v Speaker 2>on this one. You know, there is an argument and

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<v Speaker 2>polsters make it that, Hey, the results were within the

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<v Speaker 2>margin of error. So they weren't technically wrong. And Chad

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<v Speaker 2>and Alex right that polsters are often more accurate than

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<v Speaker 2>they are precise, which to me feels a little bit

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<v Speaker 2>like you know, when your football team loses and they

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<v Speaker 2>still say they played a great game. You know, It's

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<v Speaker 2>like all these states, all the swing states. Sure they

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<v Speaker 2>might have been within the margin of error, they're still

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<v Speaker 2>very close, but they all underestimated Trump support. They were

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<v Speaker 2>all sort of directionally wrong in the same way. And

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<v Speaker 2>then you look at states like Florida or Texas, and

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<v Speaker 2>they really extremely underestimated Trump's support, well outside the margin

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<v Speaker 2>of error. And I think that, you know, polsters still

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<v Speaker 2>haven't quite figured out Donald Trump's support this time around.

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<v Speaker 2>They waited their results, they tried to account for communities,

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<v Speaker 2>like is the respondent in a rural area, or how

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<v Speaker 2>did they vote previously? And I just don't think they

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<v Speaker 2>have quite figured it out or gotten it right. And

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<v Speaker 2>I think you know, if you were, if you made

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<v Speaker 2>the mistake once again of putting your faith in the polls,

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<v Speaker 2>you were probably very disappointed last Tuesday night.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, that's a good point. In the outlier polls that

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<v Speaker 1>I was talking about, I mean, there have been these

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<v Speaker 1>you know, sort of opium polls for Democrats out there,

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<v Speaker 1>like the one we got Saturday night from Anne Seltzer

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<v Speaker 1>that showed that Vice President Harris is actually leading in

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<v Speaker 1>Iowa by a margin.

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<v Speaker 2>Of four whatch is fourteen points.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it was wasn't even close. So it's pretty remarkable

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<v Speaker 1>to see that. Do you think, Brad, that we have

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<v Speaker 1>to as Americans have to adjust the way that we

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<v Speaker 1>view polling or do we have to figure out a

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<v Speaker 1>better way to poll because it just seems like and

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<v Speaker 1>Billy hous was talking about this earlier on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, he would speak to people wearing Trump gear

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<v Speaker 1>in some states and they wouldn't tell him who they

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<v Speaker 1>were voting for. They were even skeptical of someone like him,

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<v Speaker 1>despite the fact that they were signaling it to the world.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean, my opinion is it's a it's a

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<v Speaker 2>broken science. You know, it relies on a voluntary response

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<v Speaker 2>from people that are now connected in all sorts of

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<v Speaker 2>different ways. We're all besieged by text messages and spam

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<v Speaker 2>and other kinds of unsolicited email, and so most people's

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<v Speaker 2>instinct is to kind of reject an unsolicited query, and

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<v Speaker 2>you know, and then you layer on top of that

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<v Speaker 2>that we live in such a polarized environment that some

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<v Speaker 2>people don't want to express their opinion because they might

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<v Speaker 2>be you know, they might they might feel judged by

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<v Speaker 2>their community. And so I think, you know, the polling

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<v Speaker 2>community needs to kind of come together and figure out

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<v Speaker 2>if there is a path forward. And then yet, as

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<v Speaker 2>voters is in the in the media, as the electorate,

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<v Speaker 2>I think that relying on polling right now is very dangerous.

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<v Speaker 1>Help us figure out the path forward a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>the best you can, not asking you to make predictions,

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<v Speaker 1>but you are one of the few people who has

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<v Speaker 1>sat down with President elect Trump in recent months. You

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<v Speaker 1>did that down at mar A Lago for a Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>BusinessWeek cover story that really covered pretty much every gamut

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<v Speaker 1>of the economic agenda of the president elect. Give us

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<v Speaker 1>an idea of how you view, if any his agenda

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<v Speaker 1>has shifted since then. It was before his assassination attempt,

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<v Speaker 1>it was before the convention, it was before his selection

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<v Speaker 1>of JD. Vance, and it was of course before he

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<v Speaker 1>won the election. Versus what you've heard from him now

0:12:40.120 --> 0:12:43.040
<v Speaker 1>and how he puts that into action in the coming

0:12:43.080 --> 0:12:45.840
<v Speaker 1>months during the transition, and what that looks like January twentieth.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, Tim, I just have no idea. Look, he

0:12:52.200 --> 0:12:57.080
<v Speaker 2>might have all the branches of government. He's feeling extraordinarily empowered.

0:12:58.120 --> 0:13:03.560
<v Speaker 2>He's feeling totally vindicated. There will be no checks on

0:13:03.880 --> 0:13:07.920
<v Speaker 2>the appointees to his cabinet, to judicial postings, you know.

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<v Speaker 2>At the same time, like my impression of him when

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<v Speaker 2>we did go down there in July and just watching

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<v Speaker 2>him over these past ten years, is that, you know,

0:13:15.559 --> 0:13:18.200
<v Speaker 2>he does see himself as a man of the people.

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<v Speaker 2>He wants to be liked. It's extraordinarily important to him

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<v Speaker 2>to be liked and respected and admired. And I don't

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<v Speaker 2>think that impulse goes away now that arguably he's not

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<v Speaker 2>going to ever face election again. So when it comes

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<v Speaker 2>to some of the things that he's proposed, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>mass deportations or tariffs that could you know, according to economists,

0:13:39.679 --> 0:13:41.920
<v Speaker 2>raise the rate of inflation, you know, he's not going

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<v Speaker 2>to have any practical moderating influences. But you know, he

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't want to. I don't think it's in his nature

0:13:47.640 --> 0:13:50.240
<v Speaker 2>to want to do broadly unpopular things. So I do

0:13:50.320 --> 0:13:52.959
<v Speaker 2>wonder if that will end up being a check on

0:13:53.520 --> 0:13:56.160
<v Speaker 2>some of his instincts, although you know, the one thing

0:13:56.240 --> 0:13:58.680
<v Speaker 2>that we heard from him on Tuesday night was he said,

0:13:58.720 --> 0:14:01.520
<v Speaker 2>you know, promise is offered, promises will be fulfilled. So

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<v Speaker 2>I do expect him, you know, to come into office

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<v Speaker 2>looking to immediately put points on the board and to

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<v Speaker 2>fulfill some of the promises that he made on the

0:14:09.760 --> 0:14:10.440
<v Speaker 2>campaign trail.

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<v Speaker 1>Look, I'm not going to ask you to give up

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<v Speaker 1>what you're talking to new reporters about in your editorial meetings,

0:14:15.280 --> 0:14:18.120
<v Speaker 1>but you have a job that requires you to think

0:14:18.600 --> 0:14:21.120
<v Speaker 1>pretty clearly about what things will look like in the

0:14:21.120 --> 0:14:25.240
<v Speaker 1>next few months, because they're responsible for assigning stories and

0:14:25.640 --> 0:14:27.920
<v Speaker 1>understanding what people are going to be talking about in

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<v Speaker 1>the future. How are you thinking about covering the president elect.

0:14:32.840 --> 0:14:36.160
<v Speaker 2>We're going to be looking very precisely at the challenges

0:14:36.160 --> 0:14:39.360
<v Speaker 2>and battles ahead for the new administration, and we have

0:14:39.440 --> 0:14:42.600
<v Speaker 2>reached out into the Bloomberg newsroom around the world to

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<v Speaker 2>look at, you know, what is ahead in Europe and China,

0:14:47.560 --> 0:14:53.960
<v Speaker 2>in immigration, cryptocurrencies, on wall streets, and in tech. You know,

0:14:54.040 --> 0:14:56.760
<v Speaker 2>we were thinking of it in terms of the battles ahead,

0:14:56.800 --> 0:14:58.920
<v Speaker 2>and it'll be interesting now because I'm not so sure

0:14:58.920 --> 0:15:04.160
<v Speaker 2>there will be battles. You know, Trump isn't going to

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<v Speaker 2>have a lot of political opposition if he does control

0:15:06.880 --> 0:15:09.600
<v Speaker 2>all three branches of Congress. But you know, certainly we

0:15:09.640 --> 0:15:14.160
<v Speaker 2>saw today Gavin Newsom calling a special legislative session in California,

0:15:14.280 --> 0:15:16.600
<v Speaker 2>a lot of the states girding to try to put

0:15:16.680 --> 0:15:20.240
<v Speaker 2>checks on what the administration will do, either legislatively or

0:15:20.280 --> 0:15:23.120
<v Speaker 2>in the courts. And so that's our approach, you know,

0:15:23.200 --> 0:15:25.880
<v Speaker 2>to cover it carefully and to try to look forward

0:15:26.040 --> 0:15:28.200
<v Speaker 2>rather than back and look at you know, what the

0:15:28.200 --> 0:15:30.800
<v Speaker 2>Trump agenda will look like and what it will mean

0:15:30.840 --> 0:15:31.440
<v Speaker 2>for business.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, we look forward to following the story closely and

0:15:34.040 --> 0:15:37.800
<v Speaker 1>following it at Bloomberg Business Week. Brad really appreciate you

0:15:37.880 --> 0:15:40.480
<v Speaker 1>taking the time to join us this afternoon. Bradstone is

0:15:40.640 --> 0:15:43.400
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week Editor. He's also the author of four books,

0:15:43.440 --> 0:15:47.160
<v Speaker 1>including the New York Times bestseller Amazon Unbound, Jeff Bezos

0:15:47.400 --> 0:15:51.640
<v Speaker 1>and The Invention of a Global Empire. If you do

0:15:51.960 --> 0:15:54.880
<v Speaker 1>want to subscribe to Bloomberg Business Week and unlocked deep

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<v Speaker 1>reporting and analysis from our reporters around the world, including

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0:16:01.240 --> 0:16:04.760
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