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Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet. We

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Speaker 1: are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the

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Speaker 1: show that makes the Square sharper and makes the wise

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Speaker 1: guys pay attention. I am Chad Melman. I am joined

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Speaker 1: as I am for every episode. Bye bye, BFF, my

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Speaker 1: companion Micha and Padre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, so

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Speaker 1: I'm in Chad.

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Speaker 2: Are we doing dude?

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Speaker 1: I feel pretty good. I feel pretty good. Even with

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Speaker 1: last night losing the Giants game. We went on the

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Speaker 1: Giants for the last game in our final five because

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Speaker 1: we truly believed the luck would turn. It did not turn.

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Speaker 1: It did not turn at all. In fact, it might

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Speaker 1: have gotten worse. You give up a long kick return

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Speaker 1: to start the game. You give up a pumper turn

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Speaker 1: for a touchdown. You have a kicker who has everybody

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Speaker 1: simultaneously watching that game saying, never see that before, because

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Speaker 1: he kicks the ground and never makes it to the ball.

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Speaker 1: You've got first downs being called back because the other

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Speaker 1: the Giants can't stop fighting with the Patriots. It was

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Speaker 1: just a train wreck. Yet you bet the seven because

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Speaker 1: you're never really out of it. And even when they

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Speaker 1: were down thirty to fifteen, in the second half, You're like,

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Speaker 1: we still got a shot. It never really worked out

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Speaker 1: for us.

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Speaker 3: Hopefully last week was just a bad week for us

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Speaker 3: with special teams. This week it's a little better because

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Speaker 3: it feels like we have two different games where, yeah,

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Speaker 3: I can't really blame the offensive defense in that game

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Speaker 3: as much as you really want to, just blame really

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Speaker 3: really poor special teams play. So that Giants game just

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Speaker 3: absolutely brutal. How bad that special teams was in that

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Speaker 3: game and Dart taking hits again. I know it's gonna

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Speaker 3: be a big talking point this whole week. But you

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Speaker 3: see the talent. I think we all see the talent.

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, my god. If this kid could figure it

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Speaker 3: out just to live for the next down.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's just he's so reckless with everywhere he plays.

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Speaker 3: In his interviews, he says things, You're just like, man,

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Speaker 3: you sound like a dumb, naive kid. Like I get

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Speaker 3: what he's saying. Like he is a tough guy, he

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Speaker 3: plays tough. This isn't no one cares how tough you are.

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Speaker 3: They just want you to last. Like I wish Eli

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Speaker 3: Manning could just explain to him. It's like I wasn't

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Speaker 3: the best quarterback ever. But I played every game. I

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Speaker 3: never missed the game, and that was one of my

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Speaker 3: greatest strengths. So dark tons of talent, but man, those

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Speaker 3: hits he was taking that first quarter.

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Speaker 2: I don't know about you, but it was scaring the

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Speaker 2: hell out of.

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Speaker 1: Me, scaring the hell out everybody. I mean, he looked,

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Speaker 1: you know, like you said, what do you say, This

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Speaker 1: isn't golf or whatever? Soccer? Yeah, listen. We went two

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Speaker 1: and three with the contest or with the five favorite

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Speaker 1: picks from Sunday Morning. We won with the Jets, We

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Speaker 1: won with the Texans. We lost with the Browns, the

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Speaker 1: Steelers and the Giants. You bet those three teams you

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Speaker 1: get what you deserve Simon. For the year, we are

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Speaker 1: thirty six and twenty nine through thirteen weeks. It's our

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Speaker 1: Tuesday show. We will review the entire slate. You can

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Speaker 1: check out the Sunday Am Show if you want the games.

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Speaker 1: That will be our official five after we've had a

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Speaker 1: chance to review everything. Don't forget. You can get the

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Speaker 1: shows on Sharper Square at YouTube. Also download from Spotify,

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Speaker 1: Apple Pods, wherever you get your pots. Good news, folks,

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Speaker 1: the contest that we have talked about that. We have

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Speaker 1: promised that, we have hoped we could all deliver on,

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Speaker 1: meaning me Simon, Matt Mitchell, so everybody could be playing

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Speaker 1: the same lines. You are able to sign up right now.

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Speaker 1: So many people got blown out of their survivor pools

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Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving Thursday, with the Ravens, the Lions, the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: and the Eagles on Friday, all losing. This is a

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Speaker 1: great way to re engage. Consider this your second chance

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Speaker 1: to be in some kind of contest for the rest

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Speaker 1: of the NFL season. Go sign up right now, make

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Speaker 1: your picks. It's live, It's open, Sharp or Square dot

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Speaker 1: the Volume dot com. Again, go sign up right now,

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Speaker 1: sharpor square dot the Volume dot Com. Here's producer Matt

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Speaker 1: with all of the details. All right, Matt Mitchell always

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Speaker 1: stressed appropriately. We have been getting a ton of questions

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Speaker 1: about the contest that we have been able to officially

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Speaker 1: announce has launched. People can go sign up. Can you

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Speaker 1: please tell everybody how they can do that?

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Speaker 4: Yes, very excited that the contest is officially live. You

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Speaker 4: can just go to sharp or Square dot the Volume

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Speaker 4: dot com to sign up for this totally free contest

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Speaker 4: and you can make your Week fourteen picks right away.

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Speaker 4: It'll be the same website and your same log in

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Speaker 4: throughout the entire contest.

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Speaker 1: How long Matt Free Contest. How long will this totally

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Speaker 1: free contest run?

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Speaker 4: Okay, so it starts this week, which is week fourteen,

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Speaker 4: and it'll run this time through Super Bowl Sunday, So

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Speaker 4: that's nine total contest weeks. But you've got to hurry

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Speaker 4: up and sign up because registration for this free contest

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Speaker 4: closes at one pm Eastern kickoff this Sunday, December seventh.

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Speaker 1: Totally free contest in which people are going to win

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Speaker 1: prizes and compete against me and Simon Matt tell everyone

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Speaker 1: how the contest works.

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Speaker 2: It couldn't be easier.

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Speaker 4: You just select five games against the spread each week,

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Speaker 4: along with one tiebreaker question, and once we hit the

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Speaker 4: middle of the playoffs and the slates get smaller, we

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Speaker 4: may include some totals and a player proper two just

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Speaker 4: to beef it up, But for right now, it's just

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Speaker 4: five games against the spread. And during the regular season,

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Speaker 4: deadline to submit your picks will be one pm Eastern

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Speaker 4: on and you can always see where you stand with

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Speaker 4: everybody else using the leaderboard function, which is also at

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Speaker 4: Sharporsquare dot the Volume dot Com.

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Speaker 1: The most important question, Matt, as we have been getting

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Speaker 1: comments on this all year long. Will these lines that

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Speaker 1: we are all playing together against each other in good fun,

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Speaker 1: will these lines move?

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Speaker 2: Yes.

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Speaker 4: The lines in this contest, the Sharper Square Pro Football

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Speaker 4: Pickum Contest, are dynamic as they've been the last two seasons,

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Speaker 4: so they'll move with the market throughout the week. But

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Speaker 4: be advised, these are still contest lines, so they'll always

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Speaker 4: end in half points to avoid ties. All pecks must

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Speaker 4: win or lose. So yes, the contest lines will.

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Speaker 1: Move dynamic lines. How or what actually are people going

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Speaker 1: to win? What is the grand prize?

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Speaker 4: Okay, grand prize? The contest winner and a guest will

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Speaker 4: be flown to warm, wonderful South Florida where they will

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Speaker 4: enjoy a complimentary two nights day at the beautiful Seminal

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Speaker 4: Hard Rock Hotel and Casino, along with tickets to the

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Speaker 4: Memphis Grizzlies versus Miami Heat game on February twenty first.

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Speaker 1: That is going to be a burn burner, very important.

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Speaker 1: Can people change their picks during the week.

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Speaker 4: Yes, If you want to make any changes to your picks,

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Speaker 4: you just need to cancel your entry and make all

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Speaker 4: five picks again. At the bottom of your finished entry,

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Speaker 4: there's a little button that says cancel and play again.

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Speaker 4: You click that cancels your entry. You make your picks

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Speaker 4: again at the current contest lines.

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Speaker 2: Easy pasy.

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Speaker 1: Is there a tiebreaker?

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Speaker 4: Yes, so this contest is only nine weeks long, so

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Speaker 4: the type breaker is going to be really important, as

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Speaker 4: it has traditionally been. It will be total passing yards

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Speaker 4: in a selected game, typically Monday Night Football. In the

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Speaker 4: event of a tie at the end of this contest,

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Speaker 4: the winner will be decided by the lowest tiebreaker differential.

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Speaker 4: So when you submit your picks, do not forget to

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Speaker 4: put in your tiebreaker.

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Speaker 1: Answer, Matt. Will all of the games be included as

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Speaker 1: available contest picks.

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Speaker 4: So we do not include Thursday Night Football in the contest.

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Speaker 4: We never have, probably because those games are an abomination,

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Speaker 4: But generally speaking, all other games will be available to

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Speaker 4: choose who.

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Speaker 1: Can play in this contest Matt.

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Speaker 4: Okay, you just need to be twenty one years or

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Speaker 4: older as of today and located in the United States,

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Speaker 4: So sorry Canadians and Brits and all our international listeners.

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Speaker 4: The only US states that are excluded are Rhode Island

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Speaker 4: and Washington State. Tell me why they have tricky rules

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Speaker 4: about free to play games. So like, if you live

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Speaker 4: in Newport or Seattle or whatever, call your congressman. I

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Speaker 4: don't ask me. I have no idea, but I wish

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Speaker 4: you the best of luck anyway.

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Speaker 1: All right, well listen. Thank you Matt for the FAQs.

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Speaker 1: Thank you for other work getting the contest ready to roll.

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Speaker 1: Thank you to our sponsors at hard Rock Bet for

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Speaker 1: working through the entire challenging regulatory process with us so

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Speaker 1: we could bring this to you. Guys, better late than never.

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Speaker 1: Go sign up for the contest. It is open and

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Speaker 1: ready to roll right now. Everything's live. We're all playing

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Speaker 1: it together. These are going to be the lines that

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Speaker 1: Simon and I refer to and the games that Simon

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Speaker 1: and I refer to for the rest of the year.

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Speaker 1: No more stale lines, all dynamic. We're all in it together.

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Speaker 1: Let's kick things off, Simon. Thursday Night Football Dallas at Detroit.

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Speaker 1: Detroit is now a three point favorites, come down from

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Speaker 1: three and a half. Obviously, two teams that had wildly

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Speaker 1: different experiences on Thanksgiving, with the Lions not able to

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Speaker 1: get over the top against the Packers. The Cowboys just

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Speaker 1: completely having their way with the Chiefs. Expectations changing for

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Speaker 1: both of these teams dramatically. I got thoughts on this one,

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Speaker 1: but I want to get your take.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it feels like we're supposed to just be hammering

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Speaker 3: Detroit here. I mean, this is the Detroit line. This

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Speaker 3: is a Detroit game. But the more you stare at it,

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Speaker 3: like you just said, it's two teams going in totally

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Speaker 3: different directions, it feels like, and you know, football momentum

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Speaker 3: does shift, but the injuries for the Detroit it feels

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Speaker 3: like at some point and it really has reached that

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Speaker 3: point that they have caught up to him.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 3: It's like now they're saying, I'm on around Saint Brown

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Speaker 3: might be out, and it's like, Okay, Golf now has

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Speaker 3: lost his number one tight end, is number one receiver.

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Speaker 3: This is the already guy that needs his weapons to succeed.

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Speaker 3: On the flip side of Dabas, it feels like every

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Speaker 3: week picking CD and Dak all that that three just

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Speaker 3: keeps getting better and better. I mean, you can throw

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Speaker 3: Ferguson in there. He's been great for them at the

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Speaker 3: tight end. So I don't know is it better. I

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Speaker 3: just I have to bet the Lions or nothing else.

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Speaker 3: I hate this game. I hate it so much. I'm

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Speaker 3: so glad in our contest we can't make this a

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Speaker 3: pick because I really want to take Dallas a three

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Speaker 3: and a half, Like there's three and a half's out there,

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Speaker 3: But man, is this number just off to me? Like

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Speaker 3: my model has just said one and a half. So

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Speaker 3: it's a Cowboys line if you guys want to be

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Speaker 3: bilt the computer. I think it's just like with the public.

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Speaker 3: It's like all the injuries. You can't overlook at this

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Speaker 3: Lin's team, how banged up they are. But I just,

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Speaker 3: like you said, maybe I keep living in the passless

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Speaker 3: Lions team. It just feels like this is the exact

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Speaker 3: spot the Lions put them fifty against a defense that

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Speaker 3: as great as people will make them out to be.

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

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Speaker 3: I still have questions about that secondary of that Cowboys team.

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Speaker 3: So it feels like a good spot for lines, but

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Speaker 3: I just can't get there.

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Speaker 1: Chad, Yeah, I wanted to be on the Lions here.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to bet the Cowboys because it's just

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Speaker 1: the public play and the Lion is moving into their direction.

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Speaker 1: The majority of the bets are on the Cowboys right now.

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Speaker 1: And my issue with the Lions. And we've bet into

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Speaker 1: the Lions because we have believe they're going to turn

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Speaker 1: it around and this is going to be a liant

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Speaker 1: spot and they're going to be at home and this

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Speaker 1: is when they tend to make themselves get healthy and

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Speaker 1: turn things around. But here's the problem. Their offensive line

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Speaker 1: just isn't as good. And we've always bet on their

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Speaker 1: offensive line. Everything for Detroit's success, in every single way,

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Speaker 1: starts with their offensive line. They do not have the

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Speaker 1: same interior offensive line that they had last year. They

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Speaker 1: have lost Frank ragnow, they have lost Kevin Sitzer, who's

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Speaker 1: starting for Tennessee. Now, they don't have the same talent

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Speaker 1: there and the people they put in place haven't been

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Speaker 1: as good and are injured. And that interior line is

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Speaker 1: where everything starts. It's how their running game gets going.

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Speaker 1: It's how Jamir Gives gets up through the middle of

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Speaker 1: the line and then is able to break runs outside

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Speaker 1: and beat out defensive backs to the sidelines and to

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Speaker 1: the goal limp. It's how they are so good at

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Speaker 1: converting fourth downs. If you look at their games, they're

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Speaker 1: not converting fourth downs, and that's giving the opponent short

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Speaker 1: fields and opportunities to score that the Lions can't come

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Speaker 1: back from. And it also isn't protecting Jared Goff up

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Speaker 1: the middle, which is why he's been so wildly ineffective,

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Speaker 1: and the Cowboys know of Quentin Williams in the middle.

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Speaker 3: The Cowboys here, like you just said, it just feels

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Speaker 3: like this is why we should being the Cowboys. That's

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Speaker 3: why remember are a hard time with it. It's like

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Speaker 3: my computer is telling us to do it. Yeah, no,

252
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Speaker 3: we should do it, and this the better and us

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Speaker 3: are just scared off because it is so public, just

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Speaker 3: everyone of the where.

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Speaker 2: It's like even just going through their schedule.

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Speaker 3: You know they beat that Tampa team twenty four to

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Speaker 3: nine before their bye weekend. We all know that was

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Speaker 3: a banged up Tampa team. Is that really that good

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Speaker 3: of a win. Since then, they've lost to Minnesota, they

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Speaker 3: beat it back up with Washington, lost to the Eagles,

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Speaker 3: beat up a backup with the Giants, and then lost

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Speaker 3: to the Green Bay Packers by what could have been

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Speaker 3: double digits. Right, it was only a touchdown, but fell

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Speaker 3: like Green really have their way in that game. So

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Speaker 3: maybe people are right reacting like this team is still

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Speaker 3: a top four, top five team in NFC, and maybe

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Speaker 3: they're kind of a topn eight nine team that's going

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Speaker 3: to miss the wild card, and that's what they are.

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Speaker 2: So this is really unique.

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Speaker 3: It really is where it's like we both kind of

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Speaker 3: know we should take Dallas, but the better than us.

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Speaker 3: I've seen this game before and we've seen Cowboys just

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Speaker 3: toy lay and egg gear, so it's it's a really

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Speaker 3: hard want to get a read on.

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Speaker 1: Also, I will say their secondary, they refuse to stop

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Speaker 1: playing Manda Man. And I think also you mentioned that

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Speaker 1: Bucks game, which is really smart because in that game

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Speaker 1: their secondary was banged up and they were playing so

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Speaker 1: well in Manda Man. That's an image that we all

280
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Speaker 1: have in our head from a primetime game, and for

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Speaker 1: you and I who bet on the lines of that game,

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Speaker 1: we were just so excited to see them turn around

283
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Speaker 1: and do what they did, CD and pickens against Manda

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Speaker 1: Man coverage. When Terry and Arnold, who was supposed to

285
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Speaker 1: be a shutdown corner is out, Kirby Joseph is injured,

286
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Speaker 1: Amik Robertson is the one guy they count on and

287
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Speaker 1: he's really a slot corner. Who's better off in zone

288
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Speaker 1: than Manda Man. I love his heart, I don't love

289
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Speaker 1: his size. I don't love a speed like. There's a

290
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Speaker 1: lot of things wrong here, and we keep thinking that

291
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Speaker 1: it's going to be the Lions team of old and

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Speaker 1: it's not. And I wish we had been thinking like

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Speaker 1: that for other games in the past. I agree with you.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to be on the public side here.

295
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Speaker 1: That's what's stopping me. And maybe we're just being stubborn.

296
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Speaker 2: It's true.

297
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Speaker 1: Washington minus one and a half now at Minnesota. Reminder

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Speaker 1: Sunday night, we said take the Commanders when they were underdogs.

299
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Speaker 1: This line was gonna move. It moved. It did exactly

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Speaker 1: what we said it was going to do. After by

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Speaker 1: the way, nice job, Simon. We had the Commanders plus

302
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Speaker 1: six plus six and a half against the Broncos worked

303
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Speaker 1: out exactly like we planned. We expect to get JJ

304
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Speaker 1: McCarthy back this week out of the concussion protocol. We

305
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Speaker 1: also expect to get Jayden Daniels from his dislo cater

306
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Speaker 1: at elbow. Wow. This Vikings team is in disarray right now.

307
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Speaker 1: They cannot find the answer of how to even respond

308
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Speaker 1: about how bad their quarterback situation is who's at fault?

309
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Speaker 1: Is it the GM, is it the coach? Did JJ

310
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Speaker 1: McCarthy say to Sam Darnold, I wish we had you

311
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Speaker 1: back like it is? It is chaos right now in Minnesota.

312
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Speaker 3: Yeah, but at the same time, it feels like they

313
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Speaker 3: have to play and like I've talked about, they just

314
00:16:28,400 --> 00:16:29,960
Speaker 3: you just got to They already threw them to the

315
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Speaker 3: Wolves early in the year where they basically put him

316
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Speaker 3: in there. Yeah, I mean, just how to drop him

317
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Speaker 3: in after you come off an injury. And it's the

318
00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:40,600
Speaker 3: same thing here where it's like, yeah, they could hold

319
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Speaker 3: him out a concussion, what good does that do? They

320
00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:44,840
Speaker 3: need to see if this he can start improving week

321
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Speaker 3: by week, right, because right now it's just rock bottom.

322
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Speaker 3: We all think he's me out the league in two

323
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Speaker 3: three years. So it's a bizarre line, like you just said,

324
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Speaker 3: this is flipped. There's a couple of books right now.

325
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Speaker 3: You can still get Washington plus one and a half jed.

326
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Speaker 3: So this line seesawing and I think we're both an agree.

327
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Speaker 3: It's like, if Daniels is back, how is this not

328
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Speaker 3: a great spot for the Commanders?

329
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Speaker 2: Right?

330
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Speaker 3: You have Terry McLaurin back and healthy with their quarterback Daniels,

331
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Speaker 3: that's a nice combo, Like, that's a combo that should

332
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Speaker 3: be able to push the ball downfield against of Like

333
00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:18,280
Speaker 3: you said, we see that they are good defensively, but

334
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Speaker 3: they're not what they were last year. Right, They're not

335
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Speaker 3: this juggernaut take away machine. We've seen them be up

336
00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:27,520
Speaker 3: and down this season defensively. So h for me, this

337
00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:30,280
Speaker 3: is a very bizarre line. Like we both agree, if

338
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Speaker 3: it's Daniels and we're getting plus one and a half,

339
00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:34,640
Speaker 3: especially in our own contest, we can lock that in today.

340
00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:36,600
Speaker 2: That's the type of line we sit on.

341
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Speaker 3: We don't move because it feels like it could easily

342
00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:42,160
Speaker 3: get to minus three minus four and Washington once it's

343
00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:45,760
Speaker 3: confirmed that Daniels is back, because I still think and

344
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Speaker 3: within the organization of Washington they don't. There's some people

345
00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:50,600
Speaker 3: that do not want him to play this year. Honestly.

346
00:17:50,760 --> 00:17:53,480
Speaker 3: They're just some people have been there since you RG

347
00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:56,159
Speaker 3: three experience, and they're very weary of trying to have

348
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Speaker 3: a kid come back too early from an injury. And again,

349
00:17:59,520 --> 00:18:01,600
Speaker 3: this isn't Daniel's first injury this year, right, He's missed

350
00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:03,880
Speaker 3: a couple of games already this year. Yeah, with injuries.

351
00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:07,479
Speaker 3: So it's a unique spot where I know people are thinking,

352
00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:09,879
Speaker 3: come on, like is this I get to competitive? But

353
00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:11,679
Speaker 3: he's he really trying to rush back to lead us

354
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Speaker 3: to what like we're out of a division. They're not

355
00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:16,240
Speaker 3: going to catch Dallas or the Eagles. It doesn't really

356
00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:18,280
Speaker 3: make sense from the rush back other than he's just

357
00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:20,000
Speaker 3: a really high level competitor and he just wants to

358
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Speaker 3: play Daniels. So it is us as betters, we're betting

359
00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:26,320
Speaker 3: on him being back this week because we heard he

360
00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:28,600
Speaker 3: could have played last week apparently like he was cleared

361
00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:30,720
Speaker 3: enough and they held him out that game.

362
00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:33,320
Speaker 2: So I still like us taking it here. Chet, I

363
00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:34,080
Speaker 2: just don't get the line.

364
00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:36,200
Speaker 3: I don't get why there's still plus one and a

365
00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:39,040
Speaker 3: half's up there where everyone knows he's probably gonna be back.

366
00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:41,720
Speaker 3: On the other side, JJ, he's a train wreck, like

367
00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:44,520
Speaker 3: we've seen him play. Could he put it together a

368
00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:47,199
Speaker 3: good game or would Yeah? Of course we saw him

369
00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:49,600
Speaker 3: against that Lions team where a good game for him

370
00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:52,520
Speaker 3: is just not making stupid turnover. So I just I'm

371
00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:55,080
Speaker 3: a little lost on this one. But we're in agreement.

372
00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:56,240
Speaker 3: If you can get the one and a half plus

373
00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:57,879
Speaker 3: one and a half on Commanders. How do you not

374
00:18:57,920 --> 00:18:58,840
Speaker 3: bet that right now?

375
00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:00,280
Speaker 1: Yep? Totally great.

376
00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:01,960
Speaker 2: Should I make it? Simon says, I feel like you

377
00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:03,320
Speaker 2: should make a chat to it. Sho, I think it.

378
00:19:03,400 --> 00:19:06,239
Speaker 3: Simon says, I figured, I'm looking live to hard rock

379
00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:09,600
Speaker 3: here in Jersey. They're plus one at hard Rock Commanders.

380
00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:12,560
Speaker 1: If you can get the Commanders as an underdog, I

381
00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:13,719
Speaker 1: think you have to get it.

382
00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:17,640
Speaker 3: I'm gonna I'm gonna make an executive decision. Simon says,

383
00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:21,879
Speaker 3: I want to play a game. Simon says, give me.

384
00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:26,119
Speaker 1: Simon says, presented by hard Rock Bet, it's going to

385
00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:30,400
Speaker 1: be the Washington Commanders at plus one. Go get it

386
00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:35,520
Speaker 1: at the hard Rock books right now, Simon says, presented

387
00:19:35,520 --> 00:19:41,160
Speaker 1: by hard Rock Beat. Another game, short line, Indianapolis Colts

388
00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:44,040
Speaker 1: minus one and a half against the Jacksonville Jaguars. So

389
00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:47,480
Speaker 1: I bet this. I bet the Colts minus one and

390
00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:52,560
Speaker 1: a half. Honestly, it's a bet against the jackson It's

391
00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:54,960
Speaker 1: a bet against Trevor Lawrence. And it's a bet because

392
00:19:55,480 --> 00:20:00,240
Speaker 1: you know, my model likes the Colts in a spot

393
00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:03,359
Speaker 1: a good team off of a tough loss against a

394
00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:06,119
Speaker 1: good team that's off of a blowout. I tend to

395
00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:08,040
Speaker 1: think there's going to be a little bit more value

396
00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:10,439
Speaker 1: on the team that is off of the tough loss.

397
00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:12,919
Speaker 1: And this is all of a sudden becomes such a

398
00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:17,359
Speaker 1: challenging situation for the Colts because the Texans have a

399
00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:20,560
Speaker 1: ton of momentum, the Jags are now right with them

400
00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:23,439
Speaker 1: for first place in the AFC South. And we know

401
00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:28,320
Speaker 1: about the Daniel Jones broken fibula, shattered fibula, fractured fibula,

402
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:31,520
Speaker 1: whatever it is, and we also know that we don't

403
00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:35,479
Speaker 1: know when it happened, and he can't say when it happened,

404
00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:38,480
Speaker 1: So he might have been playing great all season on

405
00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:42,240
Speaker 1: an injured leg. But whatever the case is, since the buye,

406
00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:45,720
Speaker 1: he had a good first half against the Chiefs and

407
00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:47,760
Speaker 1: then cratered in a game in which the Chiefs came

408
00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:51,040
Speaker 1: back and won. He had a very mediocre game, minus

409
00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:54,320
Speaker 1: some gorgeous passes in the Texans game in which the

410
00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:56,440
Speaker 1: Texans won and the Colts could not get it done

411
00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:58,520
Speaker 1: and convert at the end of the game when they

412
00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:01,879
Speaker 1: still had a chance to win that game. Is it

413
00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:04,639
Speaker 1: the leg? Is it the Chiefs defense? Is it the

414
00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:08,199
Speaker 1: Texans defense, sauce Gardner will not be playing in this game. Like,

415
00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:09,800
Speaker 1: you got to feel for this team a little bit.

416
00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:12,320
Speaker 1: They were riding so high. They went all in. They

417
00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:14,639
Speaker 1: went to get sauce Gardner. Now he's out for an

418
00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:17,080
Speaker 1: extended period of time. Jones is playing on whatever he

419
00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:21,040
Speaker 1: has with his fibula. I'm on the Colts, but I'm

420
00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:23,800
Speaker 1: feeling less confident about it than I was the other day.

421
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:25,880
Speaker 1: I really bet because I thought the number was gonna move.

422
00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:28,480
Speaker 2: I bet at Tunea has moved.

423
00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:31,119
Speaker 3: Actually there's some two's out there now on this Colts team,

424
00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:34,840
Speaker 3: but I got to go against it. I got the

425
00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:37,960
Speaker 3: Jags a minus three in my model, so apparently this

426
00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:43,639
Speaker 3: is way off an incredible Jag spot And I was like, okay,

427
00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:47,160
Speaker 3: I'm we're definitely overlooking the Jones injury because I guys,

428
00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 3: I have been moving his number down and every week

429
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:52,879
Speaker 3: it's it's been working for us going against them, because

430
00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:55,240
Speaker 3: like you said, they've just something's been off with them

431
00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 3: and they have not been clickings. It makes sense, right,

432
00:21:58,119 --> 00:21:59,720
Speaker 3: they only could go so far as Damas can go

433
00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:03,439
Speaker 3: because the teams are just taken away Taylor, and you know,

434
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:06,920
Speaker 3: looking at this matchup, I was just like, Okay, if

435
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:08,840
Speaker 3: the weakness now is going to be once again the

436
00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:12,000
Speaker 3: Colts secondary, isn't this when you want to back this

437
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:15,560
Speaker 3: Jags team where we've seen with Brian Thompson junior back

438
00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:18,920
Speaker 3: and Myers, that's a pretty good tandem there, Like, that's

439
00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,480
Speaker 3: a nice one to two receiving corps for Trevor Lawrence

440
00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:24,399
Speaker 3: is you know, as bad as he is, those guys

441
00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:26,919
Speaker 3: are just wide open against certain defenses. Right, They're just

442
00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:29,200
Speaker 3: not going to have cover corners for both those guys.

443
00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:33,880
Speaker 3: And even the trends going back a long time here,

444
00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:37,359
Speaker 3: we always know we always back the Jaguars against the Colts.

445
00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:39,359
Speaker 3: That's why I was like, oh, finally we will be

446
00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:41,680
Speaker 3: able to back to the Colts against the Jags, because

447
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,359
Speaker 3: it's just historically the Jags have owned the Colts, doesn't

448
00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:48,159
Speaker 3: matter who the quarterback has been. Like going back to

449
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:52,879
Speaker 3: I think it's twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen, this Colts organization

450
00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:56,679
Speaker 3: three and sixteen against the spread against the Jaguars. Now

451
00:22:56,840 --> 00:22:58,440
Speaker 3: you can be like, okay, well give me some Trevor

452
00:22:58,520 --> 00:22:59,119
Speaker 3: Lawrence stats.

453
00:22:59,240 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 2: How's he been.

454
00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:02,520
Speaker 3: He's actually been shockingly good as a dog too. Trevor

455
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:07,200
Speaker 3: Lawrence against the Colts. You know, it's it's pretty alarming

456
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:09,680
Speaker 3: him him against the Colts and the Texans. In his career,

457
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:11,920
Speaker 3: he's five and two against the spread as an underdog,

458
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:13,560
Speaker 3: covering by him with seven points per game.

459
00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 2: So Trevor, we're kind of seeing a picture here. When

460
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:20,200
Speaker 2: he's divisionally as a dog, he plays really well.

461
00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:22,040
Speaker 3: He plays to that number and we've seen as a favorite,

462
00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:26,439
Speaker 3: we tend to fade him. And you know, Colts, if

463
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:28,400
Speaker 3: they're at home, I can maybe get talked in this spot,

464
00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 3: but the fact they're on the road, it's another bad

465
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:32,440
Speaker 3: spot for them against the Jaguars. They're one to nine

466
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 3: in neutral or away games. So for some reason, the

467
00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:38,960
Speaker 3: Colts have just struggled against the Jags eve when the

468
00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:41,760
Speaker 3: Drags have been awful. Like I'm talking, if you go

469
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:44,320
Speaker 3: back the one year the Jacks had one win with

470
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:46,879
Speaker 3: Gardon Minshew, me and Chad bet on it, they upset

471
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:48,879
Speaker 3: and beat this Colts team. I think the Cults are

472
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 3: an eight point favorite and they lost out right.

473
00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 1: So first game of the year, only game they lost.

474
00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:56,320
Speaker 3: Talk all the time, there's weird divisional stuff, Chad, Right,

475
00:23:56,320 --> 00:24:00,399
Speaker 3: there's always that weird stuff with divisional foes, and like

476
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:02,960
Speaker 3: I've said this year it might not happen, but the

477
00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 3: NFCS has not had a repeat champion. You're seeing an

478
00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:08,440
Speaker 3: Eagles absolutely melt down. Cowboys are still plus six hundred

479
00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:09,160
Speaker 3: to win the division.

480
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:09,919
Speaker 2: Go get it.

481
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:13,720
Speaker 3: But to this game, I'm just I was like you

482
00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:15,399
Speaker 3: right away. I wanted to be in the Colts. My

483
00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:17,119
Speaker 3: model told me to stay away. I'm trying to trust

484
00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:20,399
Speaker 3: my model more, and even here, the trends tell you

485
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:23,600
Speaker 3: the Jags tend to play really well against this cold

486
00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:26,280
Speaker 3: two matchup ball of form. So you know, I'm gonna

487
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:27,800
Speaker 3: wait and see what's going on with the injury report.

488
00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:30,720
Speaker 3: But if the Jags their number one uber two receivers

489
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:33,159
Speaker 3: are healthy, I think that's enough to give me a

490
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:35,200
Speaker 3: lean here to this Jags team, where I think it's

491
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:36,000
Speaker 3: about trusting the number.

492
00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:38,160
Speaker 2: Take them as a dog so you might be able

493
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 2: to get twos out there.

494
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:41,320
Speaker 3: People like I said the Colts, they're being better right

495
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:43,680
Speaker 3: now and I've seen some professional money coming on them.

496
00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:45,119
Speaker 2: Like they were a pick a couple of books.

497
00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:46,919
Speaker 3: Now they're at minus one, minus one and a half

498
00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 3: a couple of already public books are at minus two.

499
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:51,240
Speaker 3: So if you're like me and you like the Jags.

500
00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:52,719
Speaker 3: Be patient, you may be able to get two two

501
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 3: and a half on this number.

502
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 1: Jacobe Meyers, even in a couple of games, has made

503
00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:01,400
Speaker 1: a difference, just as it's sort of an inside receiver

504
00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 1: that Liam Cohne can lean on in ways that Brian

505
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 1: Thomas was not able to do. And obviously Travis Hunter

506
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:10,960
Speaker 1: being out has not been able to do, so that

507
00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:14,160
Speaker 1: could also be a sneaky difference. You know, he's had

508
00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 1: some big games already for them that maybe we're under counting.

509
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:24,600
Speaker 1: Who knows. I bet the Colts being very uncomfortable, I'm

510
00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 1: happy to buy out of it. I have no strong

511
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:30,440
Speaker 1: conviction on this game. So good one.

512
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:33,200
Speaker 3: I see that my model thinks is four and a

513
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:36,199
Speaker 3: half points off. So that right there was like very like,

514
00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:39,400
Speaker 3: oh I am we're all underestimating this Jacks tine. They're

515
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:42,560
Speaker 3: literally leading this division. They played well all year. We

516
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:44,439
Speaker 3: just I think we all just hate Trevor Lawrence.

517
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:46,439
Speaker 1: It's just, hey, Trevor Lawrence, it really is.

518
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:48,439
Speaker 3: I think it's just simply a Trevor Lawrence bias we're

519
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:51,200
Speaker 3: all going through. So this probably is a good spot

520
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:52,160
Speaker 3: to back this Jacks team.

521
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:55,720
Speaker 1: New Orleans at Tampa Bay this line has moved up

522
00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:59,480
Speaker 1: from eight and a half to nine at hard Rock.

523
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:02,880
Speaker 1: I think there's still some eight and a half out there.

524
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 1: I don't know. Like this line was three and a

525
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:09,439
Speaker 1: half when they played a month ago in New Orleans,

526
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:12,639
Speaker 1: and the Bucks won that game by twenty. But the

527
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:15,640
Speaker 1: Bucks did not look good in winning that game at all.

528
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 1: It was seven to three at the half, and the

529
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:21,159
Speaker 1: Bucks only got that touchdown off of pick six. Sixteen

530
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:26,159
Speaker 1: of their twenty three points basically came on turnovers or

531
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:31,439
Speaker 1: short fields. So this was an early indicator that the

532
00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:33,680
Speaker 1: Bucks are not as effective as they had been. Now.

533
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:37,880
Speaker 1: Of course, obviously they didn't have Chris Godwin, they didn't

534
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:44,120
Speaker 1: have Bucky Irving. It's a different team. The Saints are

535
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:48,359
Speaker 1: not Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals. The line has moved

536
00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:52,360
Speaker 1: in the Bucks direction. I really don't have a read

537
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:55,080
Speaker 1: on this game. I'm waffling because I don't have any

538
00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:55,920
Speaker 1: thoughts on this game.

539
00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 3: Another game I hate because I have to bet the

540
00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 3: Saints where it's like I wanted to be on the Bucks.

541
00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 3: Like you just said, I watched that Buccaneers game because

542
00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:05,560
Speaker 3: I had had some of money on and Bucky Irving

543
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:07,520
Speaker 3: is so good. He is such a game changer for

544
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:10,840
Speaker 3: that offense, just his contact, his move within when it's

545
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:13,280
Speaker 3: really tight getting downfield. I mean he had a touchdown

546
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:15,159
Speaker 3: call back on just a horrible hold by one of

547
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:17,160
Speaker 3: his teammates where it's like he had a walk in touchdown.

548
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:19,920
Speaker 3: It's just a different offense when he is in there,

549
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:21,240
Speaker 3: and you know, God.

550
00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 2: When if he didn't have that bad drop. They usual

551
00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:23,960
Speaker 2: to cover that number last week.

552
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:27,119
Speaker 3: So it's a Bucks team that I assumed the public

553
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:30,639
Speaker 3: would be off, they'd be undervalued, but no one believes

554
00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 3: in the Saints team. This number is probably off by

555
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:36,160
Speaker 3: two points. Like I again have this at seven. So

556
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 3: it makes sense that the public is just totally off

557
00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 3: the Saints team. And the fact that did they really

558
00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 3: believe in them covering against Miami? Was that really just

559
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:45,840
Speaker 3: too it playing horrible and keeping them in that game?

560
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 2: Right?

561
00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:48,320
Speaker 3: Miami dominated that game. Yeah, they could have put him

562
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 3: away and they let him hang around. And I think

563
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 3: some people said they got burned because I think they

564
00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:53,439
Speaker 3: have three and a half on that two pointer.

565
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:56,120
Speaker 2: I never saw the three and a half. I saw

566
00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 2: a five four and a half all week on that.

567
00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 1: Same never saw, never saw. I didn't even see five

568
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 1: or four and a half. I never saw anything lower

569
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:05,480
Speaker 1: than five and a half because I wanted to bet

570
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:07,440
Speaker 1: the Dolphins and didn't pull the trigger because I just

571
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:08,760
Speaker 1: felt like it was.

572
00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:12,439
Speaker 3: Too hot at Yeah, so again you dive into the

573
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:14,399
Speaker 3: trends too, like, look at the trends here for this

574
00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:17,800
Speaker 3: Saints team. I thought was really interesting that I felt

575
00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:20,920
Speaker 3: like we always backed them in their division as a dog,

576
00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:23,720
Speaker 3: and you know, we always had to make ourselves bet

577
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:25,399
Speaker 3: against them, right caause they're always gona be blown up

578
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:26,480
Speaker 3: numbers like this. I mean, they have not had a

579
00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:30,199
Speaker 3: relevant quarterback since Drew Brees, so that makes sense, but

580
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:32,720
Speaker 3: it's crazy how undervalue they've been to the general public.

581
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:34,600
Speaker 3: So since twenty eighteen, so I feel like that's the

582
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 3: end of the Drew Brees error. They're fifteen six and

583
00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:40,600
Speaker 3: one against the spread on the road against the NFC South.

584
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:45,920
Speaker 3: That's eight and oh chat as an underdog. That's crazy.

585
00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:48,200
Speaker 3: So they've just been covering machine as an underdog in

586
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 3: their division because it's what we all think.

587
00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:50,840
Speaker 2: Right.

588
00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:54,080
Speaker 3: They're just a bad team, and they just seems like

589
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:57,560
Speaker 3: every week they get rolled, but they keep games close, right,

590
00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:00,480
Speaker 3: even that game last week, they're getting dominated somehow pulled

591
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:01,840
Speaker 3: it back and then to keep it close to cover

592
00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:04,400
Speaker 3: that number. So I thought that was interesting. They've just

593
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:07,920
Speaker 3: been covering divisionally, especially in the since that it feels

594
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:11,240
Speaker 3: like they've been so irrelevant since Drew Brees. So yeah,

595
00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:13,080
Speaker 3: that one jumped out to me where I was like you,

596
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:14,880
Speaker 3: I thought I was gonna be able over Baker here

597
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:17,040
Speaker 3: back on this Bucks team once again because I just

598
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 3: loved seeing their offense moved up and down the field

599
00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:20,280
Speaker 3: last week.

600
00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:21,880
Speaker 2: But what I really went back.

601
00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:24,040
Speaker 3: And watched, there's still a little bit inconsistenty with Baker,

602
00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:27,080
Speaker 3: you know, not the blame guy went on that drop,

603
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 3: but it still feels like a Mecca a Buka's greatest

604
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:31,760
Speaker 3: he was to start the year. He's not been that

605
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:34,160
Speaker 3: guy these last couple of weeks. Right, It's a lot

606
00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 3: to put on a rookie to be your number one.

607
00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 3: So I just have some more questions about this this

608
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:40,000
Speaker 3: Bucks team at this number. I do this Saint, So

609
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:42,920
Speaker 3: I'll take the Saints here at such a huge number divisionally,

610
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 3: but it's another game where I don't know if I

611
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:46,240
Speaker 3: don't force it to be one of our fives. But

612
00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 3: I do think the number is a little inflated here.

613
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:52,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, like my point about saying that it was three

614
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:54,960
Speaker 1: and a half a month ago on the road in

615
00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 1: New Orleans. You know, just by the math it should

616
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 1: be about So let's say seven or eight. When you

617
00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 1: just said it's about two points off, so let's say

618
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:09,800
Speaker 1: it's seven seven and a half. It just feels like

619
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:11,680
Speaker 1: too big of a number. And I think people are

620
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:16,479
Speaker 1: too enthusiastic about the return of Godwin and Bucky Irvin

621
00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 1: and they're downplaying the Saints. But I just have no idea.

622
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:22,600
Speaker 1: Are we going to get Tyler Shuck who's in the

623
00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 1: second half and is slinging, Or are we getting Tyler

624
00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:28,520
Speaker 1: Shuck in the first half who was down what nineteen

625
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:32,280
Speaker 1: six to Miami. I mean, the beauty of getting a

626
00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 1: big number is it's a big number in this Bucks

627
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:37,360
Speaker 1: defense actually hasn't been very good. I do want to

628
00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:39,000
Speaker 1: know one thing. I want to know if Alvin Kamara

629
00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:40,600
Speaker 1: is going to be playing, because I do think the

630
00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 1: rush defense for the Bucks it's been a little bit suspect.

631
00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:47,760
Speaker 1: We've seen Tims run on them. So if Alvin Kamara

632
00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:49,640
Speaker 1: is back, that makes me feel a little bit better

633
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 1: about betting the Bucks. I do not have the strong

634
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 1: conviction on betting this number that you do, even though

635
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 1: I know it's the right side to bet.

636
00:30:58,040 --> 00:31:01,000
Speaker 3: I had a protext for me last night. It's like,

637
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 3: you a fucking Chad. You had Dart, Rogers and Sanders

638
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:08,680
Speaker 3: as the three quarterbacks in your guys contest that lost.

639
00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:11,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's fair, totally fair criticism.

640
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:14,800
Speaker 1: So we're gonna go with shuck. That's what we're doing.

641
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:15,800
Speaker 2: Now, Trevor Lawrence.

642
00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:19,720
Speaker 1: I know, I know, why do that? When Simon, We've

643
00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:21,880
Speaker 1: got Miami visiting the New York Jets, and the New

644
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:24,680
Speaker 1: York Jets are two and a half point underdogs, and

645
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:29,560
Speaker 1: we could go with Tyrod Taylor. In fact, Chad's choice,

646
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:34,239
Speaker 1: presented by hard Rock Bet, is going to be the

647
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:38,160
Speaker 1: New York j e Ts Jets. Jets Jets at home

648
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:41,440
Speaker 1: is two and a half point underdogs against the Miami Dolphins.

649
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:45,080
Speaker 2: Are you sure you want to do this? Are you

650
00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:47,520
Speaker 2: willing to make a choice? That choice?

651
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:51,400
Speaker 1: We can't run from a.

652
00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 2: Sharp dues to just see it, you know what I mean?

653
00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:58,760
Speaker 1: I did bet the Jets at plus three. We talked

654
00:31:58,800 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 1: about it on Sunday, so so the line was moving.

655
00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 1: Literally during our show, we said live, if you want

656
00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:06,640
Speaker 1: to get the Jets get him right now at plus three.

657
00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:08,400
Speaker 1: I'll still bet him at two and a half, just

658
00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:10,800
Speaker 1: because I think they're the right side here. I'm probably

659
00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:12,480
Speaker 1: going to bet him on the money line too, as

660
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:18,120
Speaker 1: I did last week against the Falcons. Do you remember, Simon,

661
00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:23,480
Speaker 1: Do you remember their last game against the Dolphins in

662
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:27,479
Speaker 1: Week four? It was a Sunday night game. You and

663
00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:30,760
Speaker 1: I both bet the Jets. Do you remember anything about

664
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:31,240
Speaker 1: that game?

665
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 3: I do him with some blocking it out. That's crazy.

666
00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:35,000
Speaker 3: I don't remember it, honestly.

667
00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:39,400
Speaker 1: That was the game where the Dolphins opened the game

668
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:42,800
Speaker 1: of the field goal. The Jets then went on a

669
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:49,080
Speaker 1: I think a twelve play twelve play drive eighty two yards.

670
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 1: Braylan Allen literally is crossing the goal line. He's millimeters

671
00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:59,640
Speaker 1: from crossing the goal line, fumbles the ball. The Dolphins recover.

672
00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:02,960
Speaker 1: They go on a fifteen play ninety four yard drive.

673
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 1: They're up ten to nothing. The next drive the Jets

674
00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:12,680
Speaker 1: are driving again, justin Field's fumbles the ball all of

675
00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 1: a sudden, It's back and forth, back and forth, but

676
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:18,280
Speaker 1: the Jets are never really able to get the game

677
00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 1: close again. They lost twenty seven to twenty one, but

678
00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:23,600
Speaker 1: they were generally down two scores the entire game, so

679
00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:27,400
Speaker 1: we were never coming close to covering that game. It

680
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:32,880
Speaker 1: was an excruciating Giants like performance until last night. It

681
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 1: might have been the most frustrating game we had all year.

682
00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:38,240
Speaker 1: So you're telling me that when the Jets were two

683
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:40,400
Speaker 1: and a half point underdogs on the road in Miami.

684
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:45,560
Speaker 1: Now we got tu in forty degree or less weather

685
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:50,600
Speaker 1: not playing well. He's the reason he completed five passes

686
00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:53,000
Speaker 1: in the second half of that game against the Saints,

687
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 1: and he's the reason why they were able to come

688
00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:58,800
Speaker 1: back this past week. Now I got Tyrod Taylor, who's

689
00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:02,080
Speaker 1: a good runner. I got a Jets defense that is

690
00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:04,800
Speaker 1: performing better since they got rid of sauce in Quinn Williams.

691
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:06,960
Speaker 1: And there's still two and a half point underdogs now

692
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:09,440
Speaker 1: at home in shitty weather in December. For Tua, who

693
00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:13,400
Speaker 1: never performs that way well in those conditions, makes no

694
00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:16,520
Speaker 1: sense to me. Give me the Jets.

695
00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:18,359
Speaker 2: Going back to the well. I don't hate it. Shot

696
00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:18,879
Speaker 2: around people.

697
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:21,839
Speaker 3: There are some threes s popping up out there, you know,

698
00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:24,080
Speaker 3: not that we got away with the last week, but

699
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:27,560
Speaker 3: it's just it's just having that three when there's so

700
00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:30,279
Speaker 3: much chaos in these Jets games. But we talked a

701
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:34,120
Speaker 3: little bit about it. Tyrod Taylor is just consistently underrated

702
00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:34,880
Speaker 3: by the market.

703
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:38,759
Speaker 2: He has been his whole career. I mean, who I'm

704
00:34:38,760 --> 00:34:39,680
Speaker 2: trying to think I'm a fan base.

705
00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:41,040
Speaker 3: I just love some I guess the only one I

706
00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:42,279
Speaker 3: can think of is the Bills, right, he got him

707
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:43,320
Speaker 3: to the playoffs.

708
00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:45,480
Speaker 2: That was absolutely magical.

709
00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:48,279
Speaker 1: But Rado, he's a pro bowler. I think.

710
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:51,440
Speaker 3: I think that was a Hunley, but it could have

711
00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 3: been Tyrod Taylor. But it's just it's crazy, and just

712
00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:58,000
Speaker 3: going through his stats, this is all gambling stats. Obviously,

713
00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:00,400
Speaker 3: He's thirty seven to twenty one four against to spread

714
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:02,000
Speaker 3: his career, so sixty three percent.

715
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:03,240
Speaker 2: Pretty insane.

716
00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:06,280
Speaker 3: We talked about it feels like these last couple of years,

717
00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:11,000
Speaker 3: he's been an absolute machine at covering. Since twenty twenty two,

718
00:35:11,680 --> 00:35:13,320
Speaker 3: he is seven to zero to one against the spread

719
00:35:13,360 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 3: in his last eight starts. So guys, just under value

720
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:20,920
Speaker 3: by the market. We'll keep betting it. But I'm on

721
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:23,879
Speaker 3: the flip side of you. Like you just said how

722
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:27,480
Speaker 3: bad Tua played. I've seen this all year with Tua.

723
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:29,879
Speaker 3: He just lays eggs like that. In the next game.

724
00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:32,359
Speaker 3: He's just automatic. He's so up and down right now,

725
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:35,719
Speaker 3: and it's why it's I think Miami fans are in

726
00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:37,720
Speaker 3: the same boat as everyone else where. It's like, Okay,

727
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:41,319
Speaker 3: his peak best year was two years ago. It's it's

728
00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 3: just gotten consistently worse ever since then. And it feels

729
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:45,520
Speaker 3: the same with this year. He's just been so up

730
00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:48,280
Speaker 3: and down. So I like to play even though.

731
00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:49,799
Speaker 2: It is technically a bounced backspot for TWOA.

732
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:51,520
Speaker 3: I think Chad's now that that the weather in the

733
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 3: Northeast right now is brutal, and we've seen it every

734
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:57,400
Speaker 3: time it's bad. It's for Tua outdoors in the cold.

735
00:35:57,840 --> 00:35:59,799
Speaker 3: He just struggles, Like the numbers back up as well,

736
00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:03,680
Speaker 3: bad in the bad weather. And you know, doesn't matter

737
00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:05,719
Speaker 3: if it's rain or not. If it's below thirty five, chat,

738
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 3: we know the deal. If it's below freezing, he just

739
00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:08,640
Speaker 3: cannot win those games.

740
00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 2: So I love it.

741
00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:13,080
Speaker 3: We both talked about we love Tyre Tedtor's just get

742
00:36:13,120 --> 00:36:14,880
Speaker 3: the three. We're talking hard rock right now, which is

743
00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:16,640
Speaker 3: two and a half. But I'm seeing a couple of

744
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:17,560
Speaker 3: books up there with the three.

745
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:18,680
Speaker 2: So if you can get that.

746
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:21,440
Speaker 1: It is supposed to get colder in that game as

747
00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 1: the game goes on. So yes, let's back the Jets,

748
00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:29,040
Speaker 1: j Ets, Jets, Jet Jets, and also let's get a

749
00:36:29,080 --> 00:36:31,759
Speaker 1: little bit of a word from our friends at hard Rock.

750
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:35,440
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751
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Speaker 1: Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling called one eight

781
00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:34,840
Speaker 1: hundred gambler. The Tennessee Titans are visiting the Cleveland Browns

782
00:38:35,000 --> 00:38:37,080
Speaker 1: and there are three and a half point underdogs. And

783
00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:40,920
Speaker 1: I think last year, if cam Ward was playing Shador

784
00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:46,759
Speaker 1: Sanders for Miami against Colorado, this would have been like

785
00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:49,759
Speaker 1: the Marquee matchup. It would have been a prime time

786
00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:52,360
Speaker 1: Saturday game, we it would have gotten all the pageantry

787
00:38:52,360 --> 00:38:56,319
Speaker 1: in the world. Instead, it's a game in which the

788
00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:58,719
Speaker 1: models are telling me to bet the Tennessee Titans, and

789
00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:01,440
Speaker 1: I want to toe to the models to fuck off

790
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:05,600
Speaker 1: because I want to spend one Sunday not having to

791
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:10,280
Speaker 1: be engaged with or watch the Tennessee Titans in any way,

792
00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:13,439
Speaker 1: the line has moved in the Titans direction. I saw

793
00:39:13,480 --> 00:39:16,319
Speaker 1: some four and a half's definitely four. It's now three

794
00:39:16,360 --> 00:39:16,800
Speaker 1: and a half.

795
00:39:17,760 --> 00:39:20,040
Speaker 2: Oh, we know exactly what we're supposed to do here.

796
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:24,960
Speaker 3: God, We're supposed to take the Browns, my God, like

797
00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:28,359
Speaker 3: like you just said that, right, are coming in all

798
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:31,719
Speaker 3: in on Tennessee like you said. And it's like, okay,

799
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:33,840
Speaker 3: if the pros are coming on Tennessee and the public

800
00:39:33,920 --> 00:39:35,880
Speaker 3: is joining them, isn't this the exact spot we do

801
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 3: take the Browns because we talked about the Browns at

802
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 3: home that defense. I mean, these are terrible, terrible teams,

803
00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:48,279
Speaker 3: terrible have a highly elite defense. Like we talked about

804
00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:51,160
Speaker 3: that that for Niners game. That was no way, shape

805
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:54,799
Speaker 3: or form on that Browns defense. This number is not

806
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 3: like it was this. If anything, this number should be

807
00:39:58,120 --> 00:40:00,800
Speaker 3: six because of how good this defenses.

808
00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:03,840
Speaker 1: Like I just did the Brown score six points in

809
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:06,560
Speaker 1: this game? Like in my head, I was like, this

810
00:40:06,640 --> 00:40:08,160
Speaker 1: feels like a three nothing game.

811
00:40:09,440 --> 00:40:10,480
Speaker 2: I just can't believe it.

812
00:40:10,520 --> 00:40:13,040
Speaker 3: Like you just said that all the money is coming

813
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:18,879
Speaker 3: in on this Titans side, and I.

814
00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:19,680
Speaker 1: Is in your model telling you to bet the Titans.

815
00:40:19,719 --> 00:40:23,719
Speaker 2: Here. It shockingly wasn't like I actually had this a

816
00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:24,800
Speaker 2: minus four and a half.

817
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:27,319
Speaker 3: So I guess the opening number was pretty good for Titans, right,

818
00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:28,560
Speaker 3: the Titans opening four and a half?

819
00:40:28,640 --> 00:40:28,839
Speaker 2: Five?

820
00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:32,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, but yeah, I just to me, this is like

821
00:40:32,840 --> 00:40:35,680
Speaker 3: total overreaction by everybody. I just cannot believe people are

822
00:40:36,239 --> 00:40:40,719
Speaker 3: comfortably betting on cam Ward on the road in Cleveland.

823
00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:43,239
Speaker 2: I don't know, maybe I'm missing something.

824
00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 3: I'll get some professional calls about this one, because I

825
00:40:46,560 --> 00:40:48,680
Speaker 3: was dying, like even diving into the numbers. It's like

826
00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:51,959
Speaker 3: this kid wants to turn the ball over. Cam Ward

827
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:54,440
Speaker 3: takes insanely high risk throws.

828
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:56,840
Speaker 2: He holds onto the ball I think second longest in

829
00:40:56,880 --> 00:40:57,440
Speaker 2: all football.

830
00:40:57,520 --> 00:41:00,279
Speaker 3: Right now, It's like this is just again all music

831
00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:02,879
Speaker 3: to my ears against Cleveland. This is exactly what they want.

832
00:41:02,960 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 3: I mean, Miles Gary must be thinking I'm solved. This

833
00:41:05,640 --> 00:41:07,799
Speaker 3: is the week I can get five sacks and just

834
00:41:07,880 --> 00:41:11,200
Speaker 3: absolutely break this record by ten because I still have

835
00:41:11,239 --> 00:41:13,880
Speaker 3: four games left. So it just all linds up for

836
00:41:13,960 --> 00:41:16,520
Speaker 3: me on this Browns team. And I got so many

837
00:41:16,520 --> 00:41:20,279
Speaker 3: funny texts last week about how on Tuesday I said,

838
00:41:20,320 --> 00:41:22,839
Speaker 3: no matter what, I won't be involved in any type

839
00:41:22,840 --> 00:41:24,920
Speaker 3: of Tennessee game and then somehow try to put them

840
00:41:24,960 --> 00:41:27,800
Speaker 3: in comes Sunday into our contest. I have a disease,

841
00:41:27,920 --> 00:41:31,200
Speaker 3: a sickness with this Tennessee team, So maybe I'm just

842
00:41:31,239 --> 00:41:31,799
Speaker 3: completely wrong.

843
00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:32,719
Speaker 2: I should just avoid it.

844
00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:37,240
Speaker 3: You know, the Browns, they're They're in a funny spot

845
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:39,759
Speaker 3: here that where I'm interesting what the public does with

846
00:41:39,760 --> 00:41:42,120
Speaker 3: this line, because maybe it is just all professional and

847
00:41:42,160 --> 00:41:44,160
Speaker 3: the public are on the Browns and I'm missing it.

848
00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:46,480
Speaker 3: But right now, everything I've seen it's just professional and

849
00:41:46,560 --> 00:41:49,560
Speaker 3: the public have come in super heavy on the Tennessee tie,

850
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:52,440
Speaker 3: where it's like, do we all just forget this Browns

851
00:41:52,480 --> 00:41:54,480
Speaker 3: defense is like top five in this league and now

852
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:56,360
Speaker 3: it's a rookie in their home stadium.

853
00:41:56,440 --> 00:41:58,879
Speaker 2: This isn't brock Purdy, this is cam Ward.

854
00:41:59,000 --> 00:42:01,440
Speaker 3: Like it's just I can't believe that the opportunity we

855
00:42:01,480 --> 00:42:02,640
Speaker 3: might have here on this Browns team.

856
00:42:02,719 --> 00:42:04,919
Speaker 2: So I'll be patient. Maybe I'll get into three.

857
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:07,720
Speaker 3: I'll get an insanely good number on this Brown side, because,

858
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:09,759
Speaker 3: like we've just talked about, it's gone all the way

859
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:11,000
Speaker 3: from four and a half to three and a half

860
00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:12,680
Speaker 3: in a lot of books.

861
00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:18,239
Speaker 1: Supposed to be thirty ish and getting colder as the

862
00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:23,759
Speaker 1: day goes on in Cleveland on Sunday. No sign of precipitation.

863
00:42:25,560 --> 00:42:27,279
Speaker 1: I mean, I could be talked into it as long

864
00:42:27,280 --> 00:42:30,120
Speaker 1: as I don't know, as long I like the Browns.

865
00:42:30,160 --> 00:42:32,160
Speaker 1: You know, when we're watching, like I got four games

866
00:42:32,200 --> 00:42:33,920
Speaker 1: up and plus a game on my laptop, and so

867
00:42:35,200 --> 00:42:37,839
Speaker 1: normally when I'm watching the games that we've got bets on,

868
00:42:39,000 --> 00:42:42,000
Speaker 1: I tend to watch when they're like put the sound

869
00:42:42,040 --> 00:42:44,719
Speaker 1: on for those games when the teams that we have

870
00:42:44,719 --> 00:42:48,040
Speaker 1: bets on are on offense. The Browns are the team

871
00:42:48,080 --> 00:42:49,960
Speaker 1: that when we have bets on the Browns, I put

872
00:42:49,960 --> 00:42:52,480
Speaker 1: this sound down when they're on defense because I feel

873
00:42:52,480 --> 00:42:54,280
Speaker 1: like that's the only way they're going to win a game.

874
00:42:54,880 --> 00:42:56,839
Speaker 1: So for the Browns to win this game, I think

875
00:42:56,840 --> 00:42:59,759
Speaker 1: they're going to have to have at least multiple turnovers

876
00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:03,279
Speaker 1: and at least one turnover return for a touchdown, for

877
00:43:03,400 --> 00:43:06,719
Speaker 1: us to actually cover a number that is bigger than three, and.

878
00:43:06,640 --> 00:43:08,360
Speaker 3: I feel like all those things are at like sixty

879
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:11,440
Speaker 3: seven percent chance of happening. Like this is just just

880
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:13,920
Speaker 3: an insane spot for this Browns defense to be and

881
00:43:13,960 --> 00:43:17,239
Speaker 3: against the Titans offense that has shown nothing all season

882
00:43:17,360 --> 00:43:20,120
Speaker 3: until it's to you know, prevent defense at end of games.

883
00:43:20,160 --> 00:43:21,680
Speaker 2: That's when cam Ward seems to shine.

884
00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:24,720
Speaker 3: So I get it it could be a better backdoor

885
00:43:24,760 --> 00:43:26,960
Speaker 3: spot for them, But like you said, defensive, I just

886
00:43:26,960 --> 00:43:28,680
Speaker 3: think they're going to dominate for three quarters and get

887
00:43:28,680 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 3: turnovers and this is that's that's how Browns are gonna

888
00:43:31,640 --> 00:43:33,359
Speaker 3: win this year. With shod Door Sanders a quarterback having

889
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:35,400
Speaker 3: short field, it's not like last week where he was

890
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:37,360
Speaker 3: on his own ten to fifteen the entire game. Like

891
00:43:37,400 --> 00:43:40,280
Speaker 3: he just he cannot exist in that world Shdoor Standers.

892
00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:43,040
Speaker 3: So I just like dismatchup a lot for this Browns defense.

893
00:43:43,520 --> 00:43:47,120
Speaker 1: How do you feel about the Atlanta Falcons as seven

894
00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:52,480
Speaker 1: point underdogs at home against the Seattle Seahawks because this

895
00:43:52,560 --> 00:43:56,920
Speaker 1: line has moved from seven and a half down to

896
00:43:57,040 --> 00:43:59,920
Speaker 1: seven And like I know, I just said I don't

897
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:04,120
Speaker 1: want to watch bad teams that I have to depend on.

898
00:44:05,080 --> 00:44:09,240
Speaker 1: I know the pros are on Atlanta. Seattle looked so good.

899
00:44:09,440 --> 00:44:14,160
Speaker 1: Public sentiment is so on the Seahawks' side, and the

900
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:19,280
Speaker 1: Falcons are in such disarray and looked terrible. Everything about

901
00:44:19,320 --> 00:44:22,680
Speaker 1: that loss to the Jets is a tragedy. The Atlanta

902
00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:27,160
Speaker 1: Falcons had the ball and a chance to drive down

903
00:44:27,160 --> 00:44:30,279
Speaker 1: the field to get into field goal range and win

904
00:44:30,360 --> 00:44:35,280
Speaker 1: the game with fifty three seconds left, four downs, fifty

905
00:44:35,320 --> 00:44:41,000
Speaker 1: three seconds left, they had the ball, and somehow they

906
00:44:41,080 --> 00:44:44,400
Speaker 1: still lost the game in overtime. That's how tragic that

907
00:44:44,480 --> 00:44:47,840
Speaker 1: loss was for the Falcons. You couldn't get more of

908
00:44:47,880 --> 00:44:55,160
Speaker 1: a disparity between peak Falcons and Peak Seahawks and Valley

909
00:44:56,040 --> 00:44:58,440
Speaker 1: Falcons than you get right now.

910
00:45:00,440 --> 00:45:01,200
Speaker 2: It's possible.

911
00:45:01,280 --> 00:45:05,359
Speaker 3: I still think overall though it's it's not people don't

912
00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:07,120
Speaker 3: love the Seattle team. I thought this would have been

913
00:45:07,200 --> 00:45:10,080
Speaker 3: another game where it's like tons of tons of money

914
00:45:10,120 --> 00:45:12,120
Speaker 3: just pouring on Seattle here, because this feels like an

915
00:45:12,160 --> 00:45:12,840
Speaker 3: amazing spot.

916
00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:15,560
Speaker 2: We've talked about it. It's a Seattle team that is

917
00:45:15,600 --> 00:45:17,640
Speaker 2: one of the best teams of football. All on the road.

918
00:45:17,719 --> 00:45:19,919
Speaker 3: They are like as dominant as they were their last

919
00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:22,440
Speaker 3: game at home and their defense was their defense is

920
00:45:22,480 --> 00:45:25,880
Speaker 3: even specifically better on the road, especially this season. And

921
00:45:25,920 --> 00:45:29,160
Speaker 3: we've talked about Mike McDonald. He's been a machine on

922
00:45:29,160 --> 00:45:30,279
Speaker 3: the road. Like I told you, I don't want to

923
00:45:30,280 --> 00:45:31,640
Speaker 3: bet against him when he's on the road. I just

924
00:45:31,680 --> 00:45:33,759
Speaker 3: simply want to take them because I feel like long

925
00:45:33,840 --> 00:45:35,480
Speaker 3: term it's gonna be a winner. And you know, it's

926
00:45:35,480 --> 00:45:38,040
Speaker 3: a really early career here, but since he's taken over,

927
00:45:38,080 --> 00:45:40,080
Speaker 3: he's nine to four and one against the spread on

928
00:45:40,080 --> 00:45:40,479
Speaker 3: the road.

929
00:45:40,719 --> 00:45:41,719
Speaker 2: That's really impressive.

930
00:45:41,719 --> 00:45:45,640
Speaker 3: And on the East Coast, just saying East Coast for him,

931
00:45:45,760 --> 00:45:47,600
Speaker 3: he's five to and one against the spread. So he's

932
00:45:47,600 --> 00:45:50,000
Speaker 3: done really well in these spots save donald as well,

933
00:45:50,040 --> 00:45:52,280
Speaker 3: it feels like he performs well his big favorite shockingly

934
00:45:52,320 --> 00:45:54,879
Speaker 3: where usually when they give him these type of big

935
00:45:54,960 --> 00:45:57,040
Speaker 3: numbers like last week, you know he didn't do much

936
00:45:57,120 --> 00:46:00,759
Speaker 3: last week. It usually evens out with him, right, So

937
00:46:01,600 --> 00:46:03,319
Speaker 3: just diving into the trends with him where how long

938
00:46:03,360 --> 00:46:06,040
Speaker 3: he's been playing now, it's not that small of a sample, right,

939
00:46:06,120 --> 00:46:08,640
Speaker 3: So he's been this exact spot, so a favor of

940
00:46:08,640 --> 00:46:10,759
Speaker 3: six points or more ten times, he's ten and zero

941
00:46:10,760 --> 00:46:12,720
Speaker 3: straight up in his career, eight and two against the spread,

942
00:46:12,800 --> 00:46:15,840
Speaker 3: so tends to cover is a big favorite. He's usually

943
00:46:15,880 --> 00:46:18,680
Speaker 3: really good in these type of spots. And if you're

944
00:46:18,719 --> 00:46:21,320
Speaker 3: a Falcons team, I feel like what they're going to

945
00:46:21,360 --> 00:46:23,920
Speaker 3: grasp at is the fact that maybe people like me

946
00:46:23,960 --> 00:46:26,000
Speaker 3: and the public do overreact to when they come off

947
00:46:26,080 --> 00:46:27,840
Speaker 3: like what you had just said is a really bad loss.

948
00:46:28,320 --> 00:46:31,040
Speaker 3: And just this season alone off a loss, they're five

949
00:46:31,080 --> 00:46:32,879
Speaker 3: and two against the spread. So it is a team

950
00:46:32,920 --> 00:46:36,360
Speaker 3: that tends to perform well after a loss in the

951
00:46:36,360 --> 00:46:37,399
Speaker 3: public underrates them.

952
00:46:37,440 --> 00:46:40,239
Speaker 2: But you dive into and it's just like, my.

953
00:46:40,280 --> 00:46:43,920
Speaker 3: God, if this is still Kirk Cousins against the Seattle defense,

954
00:46:44,719 --> 00:46:47,080
Speaker 3: just talk him an absolute nightmare for him, right, It's

955
00:46:47,320 --> 00:46:48,960
Speaker 3: they're going to take away the run, Like this is

956
00:46:48,960 --> 00:46:50,799
Speaker 3: a defense that can take away the run and make

957
00:46:50,840 --> 00:46:51,680
Speaker 3: a team one dimensional.

958
00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:53,040
Speaker 2: I think that's what they're gonna do here with Kirk.

959
00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:56,560
Speaker 3: So fit's Kirk once again without his number one receiver

960
00:46:56,680 --> 00:46:59,360
Speaker 3: and he's forced to make big time plays against to

961
00:46:59,440 --> 00:47:02,439
Speaker 3: me and offense, they had their down week last week,

962
00:47:02,480 --> 00:47:04,000
Speaker 3: Like I think Sam Darno is gonna get his in

963
00:47:04,040 --> 00:47:05,279
Speaker 3: this matchup against a.

964
00:47:05,239 --> 00:47:07,240
Speaker 2: Secondary just got torn up by Tyrod Taylor.

965
00:47:07,360 --> 00:47:09,719
Speaker 3: So I mean, let's not like joke about it like that,

966
00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:12,120
Speaker 3: even what was it Jonathan Taylor ran for two to

967
00:47:12,120 --> 00:47:14,360
Speaker 3: fifty against them? Like there are so many ways to

968
00:47:14,400 --> 00:47:17,719
Speaker 3: attack this Atlanta defense that teams have been doing all season,

969
00:47:17,760 --> 00:47:20,120
Speaker 3: and they're one of the worst teams in football. So yeah,

970
00:47:20,160 --> 00:47:21,799
Speaker 3: I honestly, when I first saw these lines, I thought

971
00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:23,600
Speaker 3: I was gonna be on the Falcons. But the more

972
00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:24,920
Speaker 3: I dive into it, the more I look at it.

973
00:47:24,960 --> 00:47:28,080
Speaker 3: With the Seattle team, they're just what they are this season, right,

974
00:47:28,080 --> 00:47:29,719
Speaker 3: we got to put them the same category as a Rams.

975
00:47:29,719 --> 00:47:32,560
Speaker 3: They're an absolute juggernaut and probably the top three best

976
00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:36,239
Speaker 3: team in the NFC. So I really once again wanted

977
00:47:36,280 --> 00:47:38,320
Speaker 3: to be on the Falcons. But it's now at seven

978
00:47:38,360 --> 00:47:40,239
Speaker 3: at a hard rock. That's a Seahawks number to me,

979
00:47:40,280 --> 00:47:41,800
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna take that number. If you want to

980
00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:43,560
Speaker 3: play Falcons seven a half. I won't fight Trona, but

981
00:47:44,200 --> 00:47:45,680
Speaker 3: I got this at eight and a half. It's now

982
00:47:45,719 --> 00:47:48,120
Speaker 3: at seven. I'm gonna take that value on the Seahawks.

983
00:47:48,520 --> 00:47:53,640
Speaker 1: Tyrod Taylor is a Super Bowl champion and a former

984
00:47:53,719 --> 00:47:54,799
Speaker 1: Pro Bowl quarterback.

985
00:47:55,160 --> 00:47:56,320
Speaker 2: He's your new Cole McCoy.

986
00:47:56,600 --> 00:47:59,640
Speaker 1: Getting beat by Tyrod Taylor is not anything to be

987
00:47:59,640 --> 00:48:03,600
Speaker 1: a shamed death thirty six years old, cover against.

988
00:48:03,760 --> 00:48:05,960
Speaker 2: But being you as something definitely something.

989
00:48:07,320 --> 00:48:11,840
Speaker 1: No, it's not. He's a he's a genius, genius with

990
00:48:11,920 --> 00:48:16,360
Speaker 1: the ball in his hands. Pittsburgh at Baltimore. Baltimore is

991
00:48:16,400 --> 00:48:18,759
Speaker 1: a five and a half point favorite. One of our

992
00:48:18,800 --> 00:48:21,000
Speaker 1: listeners asked the other night in the live show on

993
00:48:21,080 --> 00:48:24,799
Speaker 1: Sunday in the YouTube chat, everyone go listen to the show.

994
00:48:24,880 --> 00:48:27,600
Speaker 1: Watch the show on Sunday nights. It's live. We're answering

995
00:48:27,640 --> 00:48:30,080
Speaker 1: your questions from the YouTube chat. Can we please stop

996
00:48:30,120 --> 00:48:32,919
Speaker 1: betting the Steelers? And normally this would be a spot

997
00:48:32,960 --> 00:48:35,359
Speaker 1: where we love the Steelers. Here's an amazing stat. Ben

998
00:48:35,400 --> 00:48:39,280
Speaker 1: Solak was a columnist at ESPN put out a column

999
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:41,480
Speaker 1: this morning and I was reading it and it was great,

1000
00:48:41,840 --> 00:48:44,200
Speaker 1: and it sort of said what level of alarm are

1001
00:48:44,200 --> 00:48:46,520
Speaker 1: we at for a variety of teams. He talked about

1002
00:48:46,760 --> 00:48:48,879
Speaker 1: the Steelers, he talked about the Ravens, he talked about

1003
00:48:48,920 --> 00:48:53,160
Speaker 1: the Colts, he talked about the Lions. He had this

1004
00:48:53,239 --> 00:48:58,400
Speaker 1: crazy stat. Aaron Rodgers sixty six point four percent of

1005
00:48:58,440 --> 00:49:01,840
Speaker 1: his passing yards have come after the catch this season.

1006
00:49:02,520 --> 00:49:06,520
Speaker 1: That is second only to aj Feely in twenty eleven.

1007
00:49:07,200 --> 00:49:11,600
Speaker 1: In the past fifteen years. That's seven hundred and thirteen

1008
00:49:12,080 --> 00:49:15,880
Speaker 1: quarterbacks and he is second worst. And then there was

1009
00:49:15,960 --> 00:49:18,360
Speaker 1: like a litany of other stats of which he was

1010
00:49:18,440 --> 00:49:21,880
Speaker 1: like between seven hundred and seven to fifteen for a

1011
00:49:21,960 --> 00:49:27,120
Speaker 1: variety of other downfield passing numbers, Like the line has

1012
00:49:27,160 --> 00:49:28,799
Speaker 1: moved from six and a half to five and a half.

1013
00:49:28,840 --> 00:49:30,759
Speaker 1: So we know money has come in on the Steelers.

1014
00:49:31,120 --> 00:49:33,000
Speaker 1: But I will say this, this Bills team just ran

1015
00:49:33,040 --> 00:49:35,640
Speaker 1: for two hundred and fifty yards on the Steelers. The

1016
00:49:35,800 --> 00:49:38,320
Speaker 1: last time these two teams played, Derrick Henry ran for

1017
00:49:38,360 --> 00:49:40,839
Speaker 1: one hundred and eighty six yards on his own. And

1018
00:49:40,920 --> 00:49:44,640
Speaker 1: the weakness for the Steelers defense there's Steelers rushing defense

1019
00:49:44,719 --> 00:49:47,080
Speaker 1: is still top down in a lot of categories. They

1020
00:49:47,120 --> 00:49:52,080
Speaker 1: are susceptible to explosive plays, especially late in the game.

1021
00:49:52,239 --> 00:49:53,960
Speaker 1: And some of the things we've seen for this team

1022
00:49:54,600 --> 00:49:58,400
Speaker 1: is where years passed when they did keep the game close.

1023
00:49:59,360 --> 00:50:03,600
Speaker 1: They have been in getting tired and getting beat on

1024
00:50:03,719 --> 00:50:06,799
Speaker 1: explosive plays the past couple of years, and that's a trend.

1025
00:50:06,800 --> 00:50:08,560
Speaker 1: I don't want to be on that side of I

1026
00:50:08,600 --> 00:50:10,200
Speaker 1: don't want to bet the Ravens, but I don't like

1027
00:50:10,320 --> 00:50:11,560
Speaker 1: I don't like the Steelers here.

1028
00:50:12,719 --> 00:50:15,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is gonna be a really tough game because

1029
00:50:15,280 --> 00:50:17,720
Speaker 3: I think we both know we've been taking the Steelers

1030
00:50:17,719 --> 00:50:21,800
Speaker 3: in this exact spot for twenty Yes, you know, I

1031
00:50:22,320 --> 00:50:22,600
Speaker 3: like you.

1032
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:24,680
Speaker 2: Said, there's a ton of horrible Steeler stats.

1033
00:50:24,800 --> 00:50:27,239
Speaker 3: My favorite one I saw that just really pertains that

1034
00:50:27,400 --> 00:50:30,560
Speaker 3: there's offense in Aaron Rodgers. Right now, they haven't completed

1035
00:50:30,560 --> 00:50:35,600
Speaker 3: a downfield pass in thirty six days. This Steelers team,

1036
00:50:35,880 --> 00:50:38,879
Speaker 3: they are zero for thirteen three interceptions of their last

1037
00:50:38,880 --> 00:50:44,800
Speaker 3: five games combined on twenty plus air yards. So just historically,

1038
00:50:44,800 --> 00:50:46,719
Speaker 3: like you just said, horrible, and like you can go

1039
00:50:46,800 --> 00:50:49,200
Speaker 3: look at their schedule people, that is not five games

1040
00:50:49,239 --> 00:50:52,760
Speaker 3: against absolute juggernaut defenses. These are some defenses that should

1041
00:50:52,760 --> 00:50:53,840
Speaker 3: have been passed downfield.

1042
00:50:53,840 --> 00:50:55,160
Speaker 2: All are just Look, we're.

1043
00:50:55,000 --> 00:50:56,880
Speaker 1: Going to talk about the Bengals and the Bills, and

1044
00:50:56,920 --> 00:51:00,160
Speaker 1: the Bills have one of the worst defenses against receiver

1045
00:51:00,360 --> 00:51:04,000
Speaker 1: and explosive plays going downfield against the past of any

1046
00:51:04,000 --> 00:51:04,840
Speaker 1: team in the NFL.

1047
00:51:05,719 --> 00:51:08,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, like Rogers, just I remember he was saying he

1048
00:51:08,880 --> 00:51:10,680
Speaker 3: was thinking about how he would love to keep playing

1049
00:51:10,719 --> 00:51:12,759
Speaker 3: another year and maybe come back for Pittsburgh.

1050
00:51:13,360 --> 00:51:15,640
Speaker 2: It is it's over all, the numbers bear it out.

1051
00:51:15,680 --> 00:51:16,560
Speaker 2: I mean, something might be.

1052
00:51:16,560 --> 00:51:19,640
Speaker 3: Dumb enough to do it, but he's really done and

1053
00:51:20,400 --> 00:51:22,879
Speaker 3: it's so painful, especially Diamond. All the trends here because

1054
00:51:22,880 --> 00:51:24,839
Speaker 3: that's why we love the Steelers here because you just

1055
00:51:25,520 --> 00:51:28,680
Speaker 3: it doesn't matter who the quarterback has been for either teams,

1056
00:51:29,280 --> 00:51:31,280
Speaker 3: as long as it's been horrible and Tomlin.

1057
00:51:31,440 --> 00:51:33,080
Speaker 2: It always plays out the same.

1058
00:51:33,320 --> 00:51:36,719
Speaker 3: The worst the team that is worse record rise and

1059
00:51:36,760 --> 00:51:39,520
Speaker 3: the public hats and does not trust. They always cover

1060
00:51:39,600 --> 00:51:41,520
Speaker 3: in this game, in this matchup. And it's just crazy

1061
00:51:41,560 --> 00:51:43,759
Speaker 3: looking at these trend numbers. So let's go back to

1062
00:51:43,760 --> 00:51:46,120
Speaker 3: two thousand and two thousand and five, the other dog

1063
00:51:46,160 --> 00:51:49,440
Speaker 3: in this series twenty nine, twelve and three against the

1064
00:51:49,440 --> 00:51:52,719
Speaker 3: spreads seventy one percent. So just if you blindly have

1065
00:51:52,800 --> 00:51:54,600
Speaker 3: just bet the dog in this series since two thousand

1066
00:51:54,640 --> 00:51:56,920
Speaker 3: and five, you were hitting a seventy one percent clip,

1067
00:51:56,960 --> 00:51:58,920
Speaker 3: which is I mean the dream.

1068
00:51:58,760 --> 00:52:00,479
Speaker 2: And going him further.

1069
00:52:00,560 --> 00:52:02,839
Speaker 3: Okay, if the line is three points are more, which

1070
00:52:02,840 --> 00:52:04,800
Speaker 3: we always talk about in this unique spots because the

1071
00:52:04,840 --> 00:52:07,279
Speaker 3: books know all these trends as well, dinner dog in

1072
00:52:07,320 --> 00:52:09,719
Speaker 3: that spot when it's three points are more, twenty three,

1073
00:52:09,840 --> 00:52:11,440
Speaker 3: five and three against the spread.

1074
00:52:11,680 --> 00:52:14,000
Speaker 2: So once again it's just like you blindly bet the

1075
00:52:14,080 --> 00:52:14,600
Speaker 2: dog here.

1076
00:52:15,160 --> 00:52:18,960
Speaker 3: It's been very profitable, and you know it's it's unique too,

1077
00:52:19,040 --> 00:52:21,960
Speaker 3: where you know, we talk about Tomlin as an underdog.

1078
00:52:22,200 --> 00:52:24,680
Speaker 3: That's that's really when we love him, right, and this

1079
00:52:24,800 --> 00:52:26,759
Speaker 3: year it's not been paying out for us. And we've

1080
00:52:26,800 --> 00:52:28,239
Speaker 3: talked a little bit that TJ has just not been

1081
00:52:28,280 --> 00:52:30,680
Speaker 3: the same, Right. TJ's got all this money, this has

1082
00:52:30,680 --> 00:52:32,239
Speaker 3: been one of his worst years ever, Like he is

1083
00:52:32,360 --> 00:52:35,080
Speaker 3: just non existent, not even getting QB pressures, let alone sacks.

1084
00:52:35,120 --> 00:52:37,359
Speaker 2: He's just been atrocious this year for them.

1085
00:52:37,400 --> 00:52:39,480
Speaker 3: And you know that really does affect him because you

1086
00:52:39,480 --> 00:52:41,520
Speaker 3: just see once again all these numbers Tomlin as a

1087
00:52:41,520 --> 00:52:46,080
Speaker 3: dog when in this exact matchup against Harrball he's thirteen

1088
00:52:46,080 --> 00:52:48,120
Speaker 3: to four against the spread. He just always covers because

1089
00:52:48,160 --> 00:52:50,760
Speaker 3: his defense tends to step up. So that's the hardest

1090
00:52:50,760 --> 00:52:52,200
Speaker 3: part for me, Chad. It's like, we want to bet

1091
00:52:52,200 --> 00:52:54,319
Speaker 3: them here, but the defense is disappointed us so much.

1092
00:52:54,360 --> 00:52:57,080
Speaker 3: And you know, even Lamar, like you look back to

1093
00:52:57,200 --> 00:52:58,719
Speaker 3: the years when he first came out and how good

1094
00:52:58,719 --> 00:53:01,040
Speaker 3: he was, he was owned loud against the spread stars

1095
00:53:01,040 --> 00:53:02,479
Speaker 3: career against the Steelers team, he.

1096
00:53:02,440 --> 00:53:04,120
Speaker 2: Just could not get it right. And Tomlin really had

1097
00:53:04,160 --> 00:53:04,560
Speaker 2: his number.

1098
00:53:04,600 --> 00:53:07,160
Speaker 3: Now he has covered a few times of late here,

1099
00:53:07,320 --> 00:53:09,640
Speaker 3: and you know that obviously is a big deal, but

1100
00:53:10,640 --> 00:53:11,719
Speaker 3: not as a favorite.

1101
00:53:11,800 --> 00:53:12,960
Speaker 2: It's been really bad for him.

1102
00:53:13,000 --> 00:53:15,560
Speaker 3: And uh, you know, I just once again, I look

1103
00:53:15,560 --> 00:53:18,560
Speaker 3: at these numbers, It's like, Okay, what are the Ravens

1104
00:53:18,560 --> 00:53:20,080
Speaker 3: like when they're a big favorite like this? Because this

1105
00:53:20,160 --> 00:53:22,120
Speaker 3: is rare, right, They're in a five and five and

1106
00:53:22,160 --> 00:53:24,759
Speaker 3: a half point favorite in their history when they play

1107
00:53:24,800 --> 00:53:27,799
Speaker 3: this matchup, and they're a favorite above this number, they

1108
00:53:27,800 --> 00:53:30,160
Speaker 3: are three and ten against the spread and the Ravens

1109
00:53:30,200 --> 00:53:33,359
Speaker 3: history against the Steelers at this number above. So again,

1110
00:53:33,440 --> 00:53:35,279
Speaker 3: Ravens only been around since two thousand. I know it's

1111
00:53:35,280 --> 00:53:37,920
Speaker 3: not going that far back, but just shows if you

1112
00:53:38,040 --> 00:53:40,279
Speaker 3: just blindly bet the trends and take the dogs here,

1113
00:53:40,280 --> 00:53:43,239
Speaker 3: you whoop successful. I think me and Chad both on

1114
00:53:43,320 --> 00:53:45,279
Speaker 3: trust the Steelers team. I don't know about him. I'm probably

1115
00:53:45,280 --> 00:53:46,880
Speaker 3: gonna end up on this Ravens team, especially if the

1116
00:53:46,920 --> 00:53:49,479
Speaker 3: number keeps a moving, because I think with that's true,

1117
00:53:49,480 --> 00:53:52,960
Speaker 3: I just think this Steelers defense is totally gone. They

1118
00:53:53,000 --> 00:53:55,360
Speaker 3: have a quarterback they don't believe in who that they shouldn't.

1119
00:53:55,520 --> 00:53:57,759
Speaker 3: All this numbers back it up, and they just don't

1120
00:53:57,760 --> 00:53:59,400
Speaker 3: have that identity they've had in the past where even

1121
00:53:59,400 --> 00:54:02,400
Speaker 3: though they've had really bad quarterback play, they've always had

1122
00:54:02,440 --> 00:54:04,760
Speaker 3: a really good dominant defense. It feels like hunder Tomlin

1123
00:54:05,040 --> 00:54:07,319
Speaker 3: and this year he doesn't feel that way. So ant

1124
00:54:07,320 --> 00:54:08,840
Speaker 3: know about you, Chad, but I'm gonna go against the

1125
00:54:08,800 --> 00:54:10,400
Speaker 3: trendch Here. I'm gonna go with this Ravens team of

1126
00:54:10,440 --> 00:54:11,280
Speaker 3: mice five and a half.

1127
00:54:11,480 --> 00:54:13,920
Speaker 1: Weok, half of the battle when you're betting is to

1128
00:54:14,000 --> 00:54:17,000
Speaker 1: figure out when the trend is no longer the right side. Right.

1129
00:54:17,320 --> 00:54:21,360
Speaker 1: We started the show talking about the Lions and the Cowboys.

1130
00:54:21,400 --> 00:54:25,720
Speaker 1: We have had the debate about the Chiefs all season long,

1131
00:54:25,880 --> 00:54:29,880
Speaker 1: like trying to figure out when these teams that you

1132
00:54:29,920 --> 00:54:31,840
Speaker 1: have relied on for so many years and made so

1133
00:54:31,920 --> 00:54:35,799
Speaker 1: much money on something is off and something is off

1134
00:54:36,000 --> 00:54:39,359
Speaker 1: and it's not just you know, the Steelers, it's not

1135
00:54:39,400 --> 00:54:42,920
Speaker 1: just Aaron Rodgers. You talked about TJ. Watt. His get

1136
00:54:42,960 --> 00:54:47,839
Speaker 1: off speed has decreased year after year after year after year.

1137
00:54:48,120 --> 00:54:50,719
Speaker 1: Jalen Ramsey they had to move him to safety. They

1138
00:54:50,760 --> 00:54:52,800
Speaker 1: do not have anyone in the defensive backfield who is

1139
00:54:52,840 --> 00:54:58,560
Speaker 1: able to be a really effective defender against players that

1140
00:54:58,600 --> 00:55:00,719
Speaker 1: are getting deeper into the secondary.

1141
00:55:00,800 --> 00:55:04,000
Speaker 2: So you know, this feels like I know we've been

1142
00:55:04,000 --> 00:55:04,319
Speaker 2: waiting for.

1143
00:55:04,400 --> 00:55:07,120
Speaker 3: This feels like the start of if they get rid

1144
00:55:07,160 --> 00:55:10,200
Speaker 3: of Tomlin, of like ten years of darkness in the Pittsburgh.

1145
00:55:10,680 --> 00:55:12,920
Speaker 1: They have no they have no path to getting a

1146
00:55:13,000 --> 00:55:14,200
Speaker 1: quarterback right now.

1147
00:55:14,120 --> 00:55:16,399
Speaker 3: And they've spent all this money on all these old

1148
00:55:16,440 --> 00:55:19,200
Speaker 3: guys on defense, like the most expensive defense in all football,

1149
00:55:19,239 --> 00:55:22,000
Speaker 3: and it's you know, a bottom five defense right now.

1150
00:55:22,000 --> 00:55:25,040
Speaker 3: It's just brutally really dark days for Pittsburgh.

1151
00:55:25,120 --> 00:55:29,000
Speaker 1: They owe TJ. Watt, Jalen Ramsey, and DK Metcalf nearly

1152
00:55:29,040 --> 00:55:32,279
Speaker 1: one hundred million dollars next year. Like it is a

1153
00:55:32,360 --> 00:55:35,239
Speaker 1: really tough spot. It's going to be interesting. You know,

1154
00:55:35,480 --> 00:55:39,440
Speaker 1: people are chanting fire Tomlin like it's getting ugly out there.

1155
00:55:40,120 --> 00:55:43,080
Speaker 1: I hate betting the Ravens here, but I'm much more

1156
00:55:43,160 --> 00:55:45,360
Speaker 1: comfortable betting the Ravens than i am the Steelers. I

1157
00:55:45,360 --> 00:55:47,040
Speaker 1: don't know if we'll get there for a final five

1158
00:55:47,120 --> 00:55:50,040
Speaker 1: pick because Lamar just hasn't been Lamar like, and if

1159
00:55:50,040 --> 00:55:52,200
Speaker 1: he can't do what he's going to do, it's hard

1160
00:55:52,200 --> 00:55:57,680
Speaker 1: to back the Ravens. But certainly certainly an interesting game. Yeah,

1161
00:55:58,080 --> 00:56:03,440
Speaker 1: Cincinnati at Buffalo Buffalo, also five and a half point favorite. Simon,

1162
00:56:04,800 --> 00:56:08,000
Speaker 1: the public dog here is going to be Cincinnati, and

1163
00:56:08,120 --> 00:56:11,600
Speaker 1: I really want to bet the Bengals. I want to

1164
00:56:11,600 --> 00:56:15,960
Speaker 1: bet Joe Burrow. I want to bet against the Bills

1165
00:56:16,000 --> 00:56:19,239
Speaker 1: coming off of what looked like a dominant win against

1166
00:56:19,719 --> 00:56:24,319
Speaker 1: these Steelers. The Bills passing defense overall is middle of

1167
00:56:24,320 --> 00:56:27,520
Speaker 1: the pack. I just alluded to it. The Bills passing

1168
00:56:27,560 --> 00:56:35,440
Speaker 1: defense against wide receivers is truly atrocious. Third down conversion allowed,

1169
00:56:35,719 --> 00:56:39,879
Speaker 1: they are twentieth passing success rate, they are nineteenth explosive

1170
00:56:39,920 --> 00:56:43,080
Speaker 1: pass rate twenty second, and we can get into all

1171
00:56:43,160 --> 00:56:48,920
Speaker 1: the fancy letters EPA, DVOA, yard per target allowed to

1172
00:56:48,960 --> 00:56:52,719
Speaker 1: wide receivers are all twenty fourth or worse. But how

1173
00:56:52,719 --> 00:56:55,840
Speaker 1: do I bet on a Bengals defense that cannot stop

1174
00:56:55,880 --> 00:56:58,279
Speaker 1: the run against a team that just gained two hundred

1175
00:56:58,320 --> 00:56:59,040
Speaker 1: and fifty yards.

1176
00:56:59,160 --> 00:57:00,880
Speaker 3: I feel a little bit as if the public's were

1177
00:57:00,880 --> 00:57:03,399
Speaker 3: reacting a little bit to that Bengals win where, oh,

1178
00:57:03,440 --> 00:57:06,480
Speaker 3: of course, as good as they did play, like give

1179
00:57:06,520 --> 00:57:10,160
Speaker 3: him tons of credit, ed felt like everything was going

1180
00:57:10,160 --> 00:57:12,200
Speaker 3: their way in that game between the refs and like

1181
00:57:12,280 --> 00:57:14,120
Speaker 3: you said, how bad Littlemore played where he had tons

1182
00:57:14,120 --> 00:57:17,760
Speaker 3: of opportunities he just cannot capitalize on. And you know, questioning,

1183
00:57:17,800 --> 00:57:19,439
Speaker 3: I get why people are Christian Harba are not because

1184
00:57:19,600 --> 00:57:21,400
Speaker 3: Derek Henry was getting whatever he wanted. They went away

1185
00:57:21,400 --> 00:57:24,440
Speaker 3: from right away, like they just completely abandoned the run

1186
00:57:24,440 --> 00:57:27,600
Speaker 3: where the run games need to be working. But I'll

1187
00:57:27,680 --> 00:57:29,320
Speaker 3: hit you with all the trends I read about Joe

1188
00:57:29,360 --> 00:57:31,080
Speaker 3: broke because I couldn't believe it where I said it

1189
00:57:31,160 --> 00:57:32,840
Speaker 3: last week. We want to bet Joe as a dog,

1190
00:57:33,360 --> 00:57:35,560
Speaker 3: especially when the number is big, and it worked out

1191
00:57:35,600 --> 00:57:38,200
Speaker 3: last week for us, right I gave up stat he

1192
00:57:38,240 --> 00:57:40,520
Speaker 3: was seventeen and three whenever this when he's an underdog

1193
00:57:40,520 --> 00:57:42,480
Speaker 3: of three points or more. Now he's eighteen and three

1194
00:57:42,560 --> 00:57:45,080
Speaker 3: right after coming last week, so we know if you're

1195
00:57:45,120 --> 00:57:47,840
Speaker 3: just going to play him in these exact spots, it

1196
00:57:47,920 --> 00:57:49,080
Speaker 3: is profitable.

1197
00:57:49,880 --> 00:57:51,480
Speaker 2: You know, he's shocking.

1198
00:57:51,520 --> 00:57:53,160
Speaker 3: They've only I guess it's not shocking because they're not

1199
00:57:53,200 --> 00:57:55,360
Speaker 3: in the same division. But he's only played against his

1200
00:57:55,360 --> 00:57:56,760
Speaker 3: Bills teams twice in his career.

1201
00:57:58,000 --> 00:57:59,560
Speaker 2: You know, I guess, well, no.

1202
00:57:59,520 --> 00:58:01,160
Speaker 3: They did play three times, but that one the one

1203
00:58:01,160 --> 00:58:03,120
Speaker 3: game was the handling game, so it doesn't count.

1204
00:58:03,360 --> 00:58:05,360
Speaker 2: That's right, that's crazy.

1205
00:58:05,360 --> 00:58:07,080
Speaker 3: I didn't think of that, but he is two and

1206
00:58:07,160 --> 00:58:09,280
Speaker 3: zero in those matchups against the spread as straight up,

1207
00:58:09,440 --> 00:58:13,360
Speaker 3: so he's actually beaten Josh Allen both times has played

1208
00:58:13,360 --> 00:58:15,439
Speaker 3: really well against him, and both times in those games

1209
00:58:15,520 --> 00:58:18,720
Speaker 3: he scored twenty four or more. So, like Chad' kind

1210
00:58:18,720 --> 00:58:20,280
Speaker 3: of alluded to here, even when the Bills had a

1211
00:58:20,280 --> 00:58:23,000
Speaker 3: semi decent defense, Joe Burrows had his way with him

1212
00:58:23,040 --> 00:58:26,120
Speaker 3: and he's played great against him. And I know there's

1213
00:58:26,120 --> 00:58:27,880
Speaker 3: a lot of trends and stuff pointing me to back

1214
00:58:27,920 --> 00:58:29,560
Speaker 3: of this Bengals team, but Chad just said, I just

1215
00:58:29,600 --> 00:58:31,800
Speaker 3: think the same feeling I have with this Bill team.

1216
00:58:31,800 --> 00:58:34,000
Speaker 2: They played the Bucks couple weeks ago, which is it

1217
00:58:34,040 --> 00:58:35,240
Speaker 2: was this huge dog.

1218
00:58:35,120 --> 00:58:37,720
Speaker 3: With a quarterback that people believed in, and he kind

1219
00:58:37,720 --> 00:58:39,120
Speaker 3: of played up to it the whole game and then

1220
00:58:39,120 --> 00:58:40,560
Speaker 3: he eventually got caught at the very end of it.

1221
00:58:40,600 --> 00:58:43,720
Speaker 3: Where last week, I think it's a nice spot to

1222
00:58:43,760 --> 00:58:46,360
Speaker 3: back where Josh Allen did not play well. I love

1223
00:58:46,400 --> 00:58:48,280
Speaker 3: these type of games where he's after games he doesn't

1224
00:58:48,320 --> 00:58:50,800
Speaker 3: play that great where we've seen, especially this year, he

1225
00:58:50,920 --> 00:58:52,840
Speaker 3: just plays so well and bounces back.

1226
00:58:52,800 --> 00:58:54,800
Speaker 2: Especially at home at least type of matchups.

1227
00:58:54,800 --> 00:58:57,800
Speaker 3: So it's another game where like Chad said, the public

1228
00:58:57,880 --> 00:59:00,640
Speaker 3: is coming in so heavy the Bengals can be patient.

1229
00:59:00,640 --> 00:59:02,320
Speaker 3: I'm gonna bet it now that it's under six, especially

1230
00:59:02,320 --> 00:59:04,800
Speaker 3: at hard Rock, this could keep getting hit, Like the

1231
00:59:04,840 --> 00:59:06,400
Speaker 3: pros could come in with the public and bet this

1232
00:59:06,480 --> 00:59:07,600
Speaker 3: down just because.

1233
00:59:07,760 --> 00:59:09,400
Speaker 2: Tons of Trend's favorite the Bengals team.

1234
00:59:09,400 --> 00:59:12,200
Speaker 3: Like Chet said, there's numbers that showcase how bad the

1235
00:59:12,240 --> 00:59:15,880
Speaker 3: secondary is of this Spills team that teams like the Bengals.

1236
00:59:15,920 --> 00:59:18,120
Speaker 3: I want to push the ball downfield shoulds excel against,

1237
00:59:18,160 --> 00:59:20,880
Speaker 3: but I just think defensively they're gonna be in such

1238
00:59:20,920 --> 00:59:22,640
Speaker 3: a struggle that Joe and Burrow has just two or

1239
00:59:22,640 --> 00:59:24,280
Speaker 3: three three and outs.

1240
00:59:24,360 --> 00:59:26,280
Speaker 2: It's gonna be over. Like I just to me, this

1241
00:59:26,360 --> 00:59:27,000
Speaker 2: is a Josh.

1242
00:59:26,840 --> 00:59:29,360
Speaker 3: Allen puts up forty two type of game and gets

1243
00:59:29,400 --> 00:59:32,480
Speaker 3: back into the MVP type of conversation. So I know

1244
00:59:32,520 --> 00:59:34,080
Speaker 3: it's a big number of people, and it's like, oh

1245
00:59:34,080 --> 00:59:35,920
Speaker 3: my god, the guy just gave us the Ravens is

1246
00:59:35,960 --> 00:59:38,200
Speaker 3: a favorite. Now he's against the Bills. But it's all

1247
00:59:38,200 --> 00:59:40,040
Speaker 3: about the numbers, right. Both those numbers are under the

1248
00:59:40,080 --> 00:59:42,400
Speaker 3: key number of six. I like playing that key number now.

1249
00:59:42,840 --> 00:59:46,000
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell is only dreaming about exactly what you're talking

1250
00:59:46,000 --> 00:59:49,920
Speaker 1: about happening as the King of Western New York gives

1251
00:59:49,920 --> 00:59:50,240
Speaker 1: a shit.

1252
00:59:50,280 --> 00:59:52,080
Speaker 2: It's like pizza baby, It's good no matter what. There's

1253
00:59:52,160 --> 01:00:00,520
Speaker 2: music in the air, shout yeah, shouting ou good time.

1254
01:00:00,640 --> 01:00:01,240
Speaker 2: You know what I mean?

1255
01:00:01,840 --> 01:00:05,479
Speaker 1: Denver at the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders are seven

1256
01:00:05,520 --> 01:00:07,919
Speaker 1: and a half point underdogs. I don't want to bet

1257
01:00:08,400 --> 01:00:12,080
Speaker 1: Bonix and the Broncos, his big favorites in the division.

1258
01:00:12,440 --> 01:00:14,160
Speaker 1: I don't want to bet the Raiders, who just couldn't

1259
01:00:14,200 --> 01:00:19,080
Speaker 1: cover a big dogs in the division against the QB

1260
01:00:19,200 --> 01:00:22,120
Speaker 1: who literally broke his hand in the middle of the game.

1261
01:00:24,560 --> 01:00:26,040
Speaker 1: So I have no opinion on this game.

1262
01:00:26,880 --> 01:00:29,200
Speaker 3: And I feel like we have so much bad Karmer

1263
01:00:29,240 --> 01:00:32,120
Speaker 3: coming back from the Raiders, Like I I've.

1264
01:00:32,120 --> 01:00:33,720
Speaker 2: Had so many clips sent to me of them just

1265
01:00:33,760 --> 01:00:35,560
Speaker 2: doing the CDs.

1266
01:00:35,120 --> 01:00:37,600
Speaker 3: Shit to Herbert in that game, like there was just

1267
01:00:37,640 --> 01:00:39,720
Speaker 3: one player. Herbert's going out like hands a ball and

1268
01:00:39,760 --> 01:00:42,000
Speaker 3: he runs off to the left. He's not even involved

1269
01:00:42,000 --> 01:00:44,320
Speaker 3: in the play, and a guy comes sprinting in and

1270
01:00:44,360 --> 01:00:47,920
Speaker 3: goes after the hand that's wrapped, like literally attacks his

1271
01:00:48,000 --> 01:00:50,280
Speaker 3: hand that's wrapped when he's not even involved in the play,

1272
01:00:50,320 --> 01:00:53,000
Speaker 3: and it's just like, oh my God, Like some of

1273
01:00:53,040 --> 01:00:54,160
Speaker 3: these guys are just such.

1274
01:00:54,040 --> 01:00:57,880
Speaker 2: Pieces shit of this Raiders team. So I'm I'm with you.

1275
01:00:57,920 --> 01:00:59,360
Speaker 3: I don't know if I'm gon betting Bone Nicks at

1276
01:00:59,400 --> 01:01:01,400
Speaker 3: this big of an like even looking at all of

1277
01:01:01,440 --> 01:01:04,400
Speaker 3: the numbers. We talked about it, you know a little

1278
01:01:04,400 --> 01:01:06,000
Speaker 3: bit on Sunday Night where it's like as much hay

1279
01:01:06,040 --> 01:01:08,080
Speaker 3: you want to give Bo Nicks, he is clutched the

1280
01:01:08,120 --> 01:01:10,240
Speaker 3: end of these games, like even in that overtime game

1281
01:01:10,320 --> 01:01:12,960
Speaker 3: that was clutched drive by him once again, where it's

1282
01:01:13,000 --> 01:01:15,720
Speaker 3: like he just does so many bad things that makes

1283
01:01:15,800 --> 01:01:17,360
Speaker 3: us not believe in him, like me and Chad are

1284
01:01:17,480 --> 01:01:17,919
Speaker 3: right now.

1285
01:01:17,960 --> 01:01:20,120
Speaker 2: But it's pretty wild.

1286
01:01:20,200 --> 01:01:22,440
Speaker 3: In his early career here as a favorite, he's fifteen

1287
01:01:22,480 --> 01:01:25,200
Speaker 3: to one straight up in his career, Like that's that's

1288
01:01:25,240 --> 01:01:28,080
Speaker 3: really impressive for a guy like him that this year

1289
01:01:28,120 --> 01:01:29,880
Speaker 3: the books have overadjusted to it because I think last

1290
01:01:29,920 --> 01:01:32,080
Speaker 3: year was eight and zero against the spread as a favorite.

1291
01:01:32,560 --> 01:01:33,880
Speaker 3: This year they kind of knew that, right and that

1292
01:01:33,920 --> 01:01:35,760
Speaker 3: they knew the public would kind of bet these numbers.

1293
01:01:35,760 --> 01:01:37,880
Speaker 3: They've always bumped these games up by a point or two.

1294
01:01:38,480 --> 01:01:41,080
Speaker 3: He is now two and six this season as a favorite. So,

1295
01:01:41,920 --> 01:01:44,080
Speaker 3: but Chad ha just said is true. It's like, we

1296
01:01:44,080 --> 01:01:45,640
Speaker 3: don't want to really bet in him as a big

1297
01:01:45,680 --> 01:01:48,360
Speaker 3: favorite here at play at minus seven and a half,

1298
01:01:48,400 --> 01:01:51,040
Speaker 3: And I totally get what you were saying, and I'll

1299
01:01:51,080 --> 01:01:53,120
Speaker 3: probably end up on the Raiders, but I'm like, you know,

1300
01:01:53,160 --> 01:01:55,080
Speaker 3: I'm going to put no row money to this game.

1301
01:01:55,120 --> 01:01:57,200
Speaker 3: I'm just happy to put the Broncos into maybe a

1302
01:01:57,200 --> 01:01:59,320
Speaker 3: couple of money like parlaser teasers and just not even

1303
01:01:59,400 --> 01:02:00,439
Speaker 3: watch a second game.

1304
01:02:01,040 --> 01:02:03,160
Speaker 1: Let's talk about the most important game in the history

1305
01:02:03,160 --> 01:02:05,720
Speaker 1: of the world, the Chicago Bears visiting the Green Bay

1306
01:02:05,760 --> 01:02:07,720
Speaker 1: Packers minus six and a half.

1307
01:02:08,240 --> 01:02:10,560
Speaker 2: Hungry Bears are violent Bears.

1308
01:02:10,920 --> 01:02:13,600
Speaker 1: Remember the other day when I said to you, Ben

1309
01:02:13,680 --> 01:02:18,240
Speaker 1: Johnson taking his shirt off is something that will endear

1310
01:02:18,320 --> 01:02:22,240
Speaker 1: him to Chicago fans forever, and like he truly understands

1311
01:02:22,280 --> 01:02:24,280
Speaker 1: the spirit of the city and the connection the team

1312
01:02:24,320 --> 01:02:29,120
Speaker 1: has with the city. Yesterday I got a picture sent

1313
01:02:29,280 --> 01:02:31,760
Speaker 1: from one of my buddies in Chicago in the Chicago

1314
01:02:31,800 --> 01:02:34,760
Speaker 1: tex Chain of a bunch of Bears fans in Bears

1315
01:02:34,800 --> 01:02:37,560
Speaker 1: jerseys standing outside shoulderfield. And I don't know if it

1316
01:02:37,600 --> 01:02:40,120
Speaker 1: was Ai or what, or if it was like they

1317
01:02:40,400 --> 01:02:45,360
Speaker 1: quickly constructed like a statue of Ben Jonson flexing with

1318
01:02:45,400 --> 01:02:49,520
Speaker 1: his shirt off in front of Soldier Field. That's how

1319
01:02:49,600 --> 01:02:51,600
Speaker 1: much this guy means to the city right now and

1320
01:02:51,640 --> 01:02:55,320
Speaker 1: how much he is connecting with the fans of the city.

1321
01:02:55,480 --> 01:02:58,160
Speaker 1: Whatever that thing was, I loved it. I think it

1322
01:02:58,240 --> 01:03:00,680
Speaker 1: was amazing. I think it captured of what he has

1323
01:03:00,760 --> 01:03:05,440
Speaker 1: done so perfectly as a Bears fan, Like the belief

1324
01:03:05,480 --> 01:03:10,360
Speaker 1: in him right now is so crazy. Last week I said,

1325
01:03:10,360 --> 01:03:12,640
Speaker 1: how little respect can the Bears be getting if they

1326
01:03:12,680 --> 01:03:15,920
Speaker 1: are six and a half point underdogs on the road

1327
01:03:16,280 --> 01:03:20,600
Speaker 1: at the Eagles after a high profile, dominant win. They

1328
01:03:20,640 --> 01:03:22,920
Speaker 1: are getting no respect as the number one seed in

1329
01:03:22,960 --> 01:03:25,640
Speaker 1: the conference and they are six and a half point

1330
01:03:25,760 --> 01:03:30,840
Speaker 1: underdogs on the road against an incredibly inconsistent team in

1331
01:03:30,880 --> 01:03:32,960
Speaker 1: the Green Bay Packers are.

1332
01:03:32,960 --> 01:03:35,360
Speaker 3: There, like actual Green Bay Packers fans in Chicago is

1333
01:03:35,400 --> 01:03:38,480
Speaker 3: that's super rare because obviously it's a close, but like,

1334
01:03:38,520 --> 01:03:39,320
Speaker 3: you don't really see it.

1335
01:03:39,480 --> 01:03:42,880
Speaker 1: You never see it, never see it only if they're transplants,

1336
01:03:42,920 --> 01:03:46,960
Speaker 1: because like some you know, overly ambitious cheesehead decides they're

1337
01:03:46,960 --> 01:03:48,560
Speaker 1: going to go make it in the big city and

1338
01:03:48,600 --> 01:03:50,760
Speaker 1: they moved to Chicago and they bring their packerdom. And

1339
01:03:50,800 --> 01:03:53,680
Speaker 1: I say that with nothing but love as someone who

1340
01:03:53,720 --> 01:03:56,960
Speaker 1: went to overnight camp for many many summers in the

1341
01:03:57,080 --> 01:03:58,760
Speaker 1: Great north Woods of Wisconsin.

1342
01:03:58,800 --> 01:04:00,480
Speaker 3: Well, I just was working because Roger was your guys

1343
01:04:00,560 --> 01:04:01,840
Speaker 3: daddy for so many years.

1344
01:04:02,080 --> 01:04:02,800
Speaker 2: I just years.

1345
01:04:03,440 --> 01:04:06,439
Speaker 3: I could imagine how in a place where you guys

1346
01:04:06,480 --> 01:04:09,960
Speaker 3: are super friendly, Chicago, that's probably the one spot where

1347
01:04:09,960 --> 01:04:11,880
Speaker 3: I could see people flipping a script if someone was

1348
01:04:11,920 --> 01:04:14,960
Speaker 3: just repping Green Bay constantly. It's like, dude, do not

1349
01:04:15,000 --> 01:04:16,640
Speaker 3: be repping Green Bay in our city right now. It's

1350
01:04:16,680 --> 01:04:18,400
Speaker 3: been a long time, but we.

1351
01:04:18,320 --> 01:04:20,640
Speaker 2: Saw it last year. Caleb beat them in the final

1352
01:04:20,640 --> 01:04:21,240
Speaker 2: week of the year.

1353
01:04:21,560 --> 01:04:23,680
Speaker 3: I mean it's I know that was a pointless game,

1354
01:04:23,840 --> 01:04:25,360
Speaker 3: but that was some demon slaved there.

1355
01:04:25,400 --> 01:04:28,360
Speaker 2: But I don't know what to do with this one.

1356
01:04:28,480 --> 01:04:30,560
Speaker 3: Chad, Like, I'm with you, I want to be all

1357
01:04:30,600 --> 01:04:32,520
Speaker 3: over this Bears team, but you.

1358
01:04:32,440 --> 01:04:35,280
Speaker 1: Also want to fade them because of everything I just said,

1359
01:04:35,400 --> 01:04:40,720
Speaker 1: Like they couldn't be more peaku. And also what's scaring

1360
01:04:40,800 --> 01:04:44,720
Speaker 1: me is I'm getting nothing in my feed right now.

1361
01:04:44,760 --> 01:04:48,040
Speaker 1: Obviously there's a bias in any feed. I'm getting nothing

1362
01:04:48,080 --> 01:04:51,200
Speaker 1: in my feed, but praise for how brilliant Ben Jonson's

1363
01:04:51,880 --> 01:04:55,439
Speaker 1: run scheme is, Like we are so ready, we are

1364
01:04:55,520 --> 01:04:58,280
Speaker 1: so primed for a massive, massive letdown.

1365
01:04:59,280 --> 01:05:03,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's again it's a unique spot the Bears

1366
01:05:03,600 --> 01:05:08,520
Speaker 3: have just they've been awful against the Screen Bay organization,

1367
01:05:08,600 --> 01:05:10,680
Speaker 3: doesn't matter who their quarterback is, who the Green Bay

1368
01:05:10,680 --> 01:05:11,000
Speaker 3: team is.

1369
01:05:11,040 --> 01:05:13,040
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't want to pain for read you

1370
01:05:13,040 --> 01:05:13,919
Speaker 2: to the status.

1371
01:05:13,600 --> 01:05:15,360
Speaker 3: Chap, but I have to to give the people perspective.

1372
01:05:15,840 --> 01:05:18,840
Speaker 3: Bears are one and eleven straight up against the Packers.

1373
01:05:18,840 --> 01:05:19,400
Speaker 2: They're one win.

1374
01:05:19,480 --> 01:05:21,240
Speaker 3: Was that when I just told you about last year

1375
01:05:21,280 --> 01:05:23,600
Speaker 3: with Kayleb Williams in the final week of the year, where.

1376
01:05:23,720 --> 01:05:26,000
Speaker 2: Green Bay says they weren't trying, I feel like they

1377
01:05:26,040 --> 01:05:26,479
Speaker 2: were trying.

1378
01:05:26,720 --> 01:05:28,439
Speaker 3: They felt like they were trying, and they got beat

1379
01:05:28,560 --> 01:05:31,240
Speaker 3: straight up by that bearrassam that basic had quit for

1380
01:05:31,280 --> 01:05:33,000
Speaker 3: the last eight weeks and then beat them in the

1381
01:05:33,120 --> 01:05:38,000
Speaker 3: final weekend. It's shocking to the Packers in that run.

1382
01:05:38,480 --> 01:05:40,520
Speaker 3: So they're eleven to one against this Bears team. They're

1383
01:05:40,520 --> 01:05:42,600
Speaker 3: ten and two against the spread in that run. So

1384
01:05:42,600 --> 01:05:44,240
Speaker 3: it's not like they've just been being you guys. They've

1385
01:05:44,240 --> 01:05:47,120
Speaker 3: been covering even though everyone knows they've owned you guys,

1386
01:05:47,120 --> 01:05:49,720
Speaker 3: and they they've been keep backing them. So this is

1387
01:05:49,760 --> 01:05:53,440
Speaker 3: a really unique spot where you know, I talked to

1388
01:05:53,480 --> 01:05:56,040
Speaker 3: a handful of book makers right now. They think the

1389
01:05:56,040 --> 01:05:58,919
Speaker 3: Packers wind up being in need come Sunday because they've

1390
01:05:58,960 --> 01:06:01,520
Speaker 3: taken so much Bears line bets and bets on them

1391
01:06:01,640 --> 01:06:04,040
Speaker 3: the spread. Just I think everyone in the public saw

1392
01:06:04,080 --> 01:06:06,600
Speaker 3: what we saw against that Eagles team, which is like, okay,

1393
01:06:07,360 --> 01:06:09,240
Speaker 3: if they can be that downin on the run scheme,

1394
01:06:09,840 --> 01:06:11,840
Speaker 3: it doesn't matter their quarterback is playing at a really

1395
01:06:11,880 --> 01:06:14,080
Speaker 3: low level. I mean, I'm sure you saw the Ben

1396
01:06:14,120 --> 01:06:17,520
Speaker 3: Johnson quotes him him taking shots at Caleb Williams. It

1397
01:06:17,560 --> 01:06:19,280
Speaker 3: wasn't even really him taking shots, to be honest, It

1398
01:06:19,320 --> 01:06:21,480
Speaker 3: was really him just speaking the truth. The guy asked

1399
01:06:21,520 --> 01:06:24,560
Speaker 3: him a question and answer the truthfully. He basically just

1400
01:06:24,560 --> 01:06:26,800
Speaker 3: said the gist of it was, we're not winning because

1401
01:06:26,840 --> 01:06:29,680
Speaker 3: of our quarterback. We're winning despite because of our quarterback play,

1402
01:06:29,800 --> 01:06:32,440
Speaker 3: which I talked coming of the year. This man is

1403
01:06:32,480 --> 01:06:34,760
Speaker 3: a psychopath. He's going to be tough love with Caleb

1404
01:06:35,040 --> 01:06:37,120
Speaker 3: because in his mind he doesn't feel like he owes

1405
01:06:37,160 --> 01:06:37,840
Speaker 3: anything of Caleb.

1406
01:06:37,920 --> 01:06:39,520
Speaker 2: He's going to be putting him in his best position

1407
01:06:39,560 --> 01:06:40,120
Speaker 2: to succeed.

1408
01:06:40,480 --> 01:06:42,439
Speaker 3: If Caleb doesn't keep growing and get better, I talked

1409
01:06:42,480 --> 01:06:44,959
Speaker 3: about it, he will move on in two to three years,

1410
01:06:44,960 --> 01:06:46,160
Speaker 3: he's going to be in Chicago.

1411
01:06:46,560 --> 01:06:47,760
Speaker 2: I mean even after this year.

1412
01:06:47,840 --> 01:06:50,560
Speaker 3: I just can you see when Ben Johnson went out

1413
01:06:50,560 --> 01:06:53,120
Speaker 3: as welcome before Kayleb Williams, I can't, Like you said,

1414
01:06:53,160 --> 01:06:56,240
Speaker 3: he feels way more connected to the city than Caleb

1415
01:06:56,320 --> 01:06:57,560
Speaker 3: has in the past two years.

1416
01:06:57,760 --> 01:07:03,240
Speaker 1: Yes, it is Ben Johnson's town. This is Dicka like Euphoria.

1417
01:07:04,480 --> 01:07:07,000
Speaker 2: Want dick a stat, Give me a dick a stat.

1418
01:07:08,880 --> 01:07:12,120
Speaker 3: At seven and four, he is the best record against

1419
01:07:12,120 --> 01:07:15,160
Speaker 3: the spread of any Bears head coach since Mike Dicka

1420
01:07:15,280 --> 01:07:16,600
Speaker 3: started in nineteen eighty two.

1421
01:07:17,000 --> 01:07:17,520
Speaker 1: Dead coach.

1422
01:07:18,840 --> 01:07:22,000
Speaker 2: Just again, we talk all the time like.

1423
01:07:22,280 --> 01:07:25,880
Speaker 3: These teams eventually find the right coach that changes the organization.

1424
01:07:25,960 --> 01:07:27,600
Speaker 2: That's what it feels like with this Bears team. So

1425
01:07:28,520 --> 01:07:29,720
Speaker 2: I'm I'm, I am.

1426
01:07:29,800 --> 01:07:32,200
Speaker 3: I can't believe another one be on another favorite here, Chad,

1427
01:07:32,600 --> 01:07:34,439
Speaker 3: but I'm probably gonna end up on this Packers team

1428
01:07:34,680 --> 01:07:37,200
Speaker 3: just because, like you said, it just feels like Euphori

1429
01:07:37,320 --> 01:07:40,000
Speaker 3: on this Bears team is just a peak level And

1430
01:07:40,920 --> 01:07:42,840
Speaker 3: it's just something about this Packers team where it just

1431
01:07:42,920 --> 01:07:45,160
Speaker 3: every week like they got away with their cover last week.

1432
01:07:45,200 --> 01:07:46,400
Speaker 2: But it feels like a lot of that was because

1433
01:07:46,440 --> 01:07:48,200
Speaker 2: of the refs and blah blah blah.

1434
01:07:48,240 --> 01:07:51,440
Speaker 3: But still when you watch them play, it's like, this

1435
01:07:51,520 --> 01:07:53,840
Speaker 3: is such a well coached, good team. Like with the

1436
01:07:53,960 --> 01:07:56,760
Speaker 3: floor they have a ton of talent, and the Bears

1437
01:07:56,760 --> 01:07:59,120
Speaker 3: on the flip side, they've had so many injuries.

1438
01:07:59,120 --> 01:08:00,800
Speaker 2: I don't know how that's all held up together. It's

1439
01:08:00,840 --> 01:08:01,680
Speaker 2: all worked out for him.

1440
01:08:01,880 --> 01:08:04,000
Speaker 3: Although then you guys just have a great offensive line

1441
01:08:04,120 --> 01:08:05,760
Speaker 3: and that rum block and is just incredible.

1442
01:08:05,800 --> 01:08:08,560
Speaker 2: So if you're on the Bears, I totally get it.

1443
01:08:08,560 --> 01:08:10,760
Speaker 3: But it's another game where I'm probably I end up

1444
01:08:10,760 --> 01:08:12,320
Speaker 3: on the Packers, but I hate myself for it.

1445
01:08:12,320 --> 01:08:14,080
Speaker 2: It's like, I want to be on the Bears so bad.

1446
01:08:14,520 --> 01:08:16,519
Speaker 1: I haven't bet this because I do want to be

1447
01:08:16,560 --> 01:08:20,799
Speaker 1: on the Bears so bad, and you know, every fiber

1448
01:08:20,840 --> 01:08:23,240
Speaker 1: of my being is telling me it's the wrong thing

1449
01:08:23,320 --> 01:08:25,360
Speaker 1: to do. And then it's an emotional bet and then

1450
01:08:25,439 --> 01:08:27,400
Speaker 1: this is exactly when well.

1451
01:08:27,320 --> 01:08:28,880
Speaker 3: This is how it happens, though, like you guys win

1452
01:08:28,920 --> 01:08:30,720
Speaker 3: the division, this is the exact way it happens. You

1453
01:08:30,760 --> 01:08:33,839
Speaker 3: don't see it coming another upset after you upset the egos,

1454
01:08:33,880 --> 01:08:35,519
Speaker 3: like I just I see it for.

1455
01:08:35,520 --> 01:08:37,120
Speaker 2: This Bears Team's why I want to bet the Bears.

1456
01:08:37,120 --> 01:08:38,880
Speaker 2: It's like I can see it, but.

1457
01:08:38,880 --> 01:08:40,479
Speaker 3: The part of me that's so boring is like, well,

1458
01:08:40,600 --> 01:08:43,839
Speaker 3: same old Green Bay wins here, they win the division.

1459
01:08:44,120 --> 01:08:46,559
Speaker 3: Green Bay is once again the division leader. But I

1460
01:08:46,600 --> 01:08:48,240
Speaker 3: just I want to believe it with the s Bears team.

1461
01:08:48,320 --> 01:08:50,400
Speaker 1: I just want to watch this game and enjoy this game.

1462
01:08:50,560 --> 01:08:52,120
Speaker 1: I want to be in Mike glory. I want to

1463
01:08:52,120 --> 01:08:54,600
Speaker 1: put on my Bears gear and I just want to

1464
01:08:54,640 --> 01:08:57,760
Speaker 1: be under my blanket and I just want to watch

1465
01:08:57,800 --> 01:09:00,960
Speaker 1: the Bears, and I want it to end with enough

1466
01:09:01,000 --> 01:09:02,840
Speaker 1: time for us to come up and do the show

1467
01:09:02,880 --> 01:09:04,840
Speaker 1: and not be miserable. I don't want to watch it

1468
01:09:05,400 --> 01:09:08,160
Speaker 1: while we're about to do the show. At seven point thirty,

1469
01:09:08,280 --> 01:09:13,120
Speaker 1: the Los Angeles Rams are visiting the Arizona Cardinals. The

1470
01:09:13,160 --> 01:09:16,160
Speaker 1: Cardinals are eight point underdogs at home. Right now, it's

1471
01:09:16,200 --> 01:09:20,080
Speaker 1: come down was eight and a half. Cardinals have lost

1472
01:09:20,120 --> 01:09:23,559
Speaker 1: seven games by four points or less this year. They've

1473
01:09:23,600 --> 01:09:26,920
Speaker 1: lost one game by twenty two points in one game

1474
01:09:26,960 --> 01:09:30,160
Speaker 1: by nineteen points. Both of those were in the Division,

1475
01:09:30,200 --> 01:09:34,640
Speaker 1: one to the Seahawks, one to the forty nine Ers. Unfortunately,

1476
01:09:35,080 --> 01:09:37,080
Speaker 1: those were two of the times in which we bet

1477
01:09:37,160 --> 01:09:40,280
Speaker 1: the Cardinals. I think the only two times thinking that,

1478
01:09:40,560 --> 01:09:43,479
Speaker 1: of course they're not getting the right value, they're not

1479
01:09:43,520 --> 01:09:45,960
Speaker 1: being respected. And those are the games in which they

1480
01:09:45,960 --> 01:09:48,600
Speaker 1: had probably seventeen turnovers in the first five minutes of

1481
01:09:48,600 --> 01:09:52,080
Speaker 1: each game and then played come they were trying to play,

1482
01:09:52,640 --> 01:09:55,519
Speaker 1: trying to come back the rest of the game. So

1483
01:09:55,640 --> 01:09:59,479
Speaker 1: here we are. Are we getting the Cardinals who keep

1484
01:09:59,520 --> 01:10:02,439
Speaker 1: games close? Are we getting the Cardinals who get blown

1485
01:10:02,439 --> 01:10:07,040
Speaker 1: out by division opponents? And how does that impact our thinking? Like,

1486
01:10:07,720 --> 01:10:11,719
Speaker 1: to me, this Cardinal team is so susceptible to everything

1487
01:10:12,080 --> 01:10:16,000
Speaker 1: that the Rams do well. Their defense is fading Matthew

1488
01:10:16,040 --> 01:10:23,479
Speaker 1: Stafford in a comfortable environment against depleted defensive backfield, Jacoby

1489
01:10:23,520 --> 01:10:29,400
Speaker 1: Brissett kind of stationary against a very good pass rush,

1490
01:10:29,479 --> 01:10:31,479
Speaker 1: and yet the Cardinals keep figuring out ways to do

1491
01:10:31,520 --> 01:10:33,640
Speaker 1: it except division opponents.

1492
01:10:34,520 --> 01:10:36,960
Speaker 3: I know, I honestly thought it was one of the Cardinals.

1493
01:10:37,720 --> 01:10:39,360
Speaker 3: My model had just said six and a half. So

1494
01:10:39,400 --> 01:10:41,679
Speaker 3: it's like, okay, there's good value here on this Cardinals team.

1495
01:10:41,720 --> 01:10:46,160
Speaker 3: But chatter our guy, Evan Abrams, he smacked me with

1496
01:10:46,200 --> 01:10:49,240
Speaker 3: a dead fish, really woke me up. Dead fish, some

1497
01:10:49,520 --> 01:10:54,160
Speaker 3: stank here. And it is December. It is Sean mcvay's month.

1498
01:10:54,520 --> 01:10:57,439
Speaker 3: I quickly forgot that, and luckily for me, I haven't

1499
01:10:57,479 --> 01:10:59,960
Speaker 3: posted all his stats. He is twenty five and eleve

1500
01:11:00,080 --> 01:11:02,639
Speaker 3: and against the spread in December, and that just sounds

1501
01:11:02,640 --> 01:11:05,559
Speaker 3: like a mcvay's stat because McVay he's just the best,

1502
01:11:05,640 --> 01:11:07,599
Speaker 3: and this late of the year he gets his guys right.

1503
01:11:07,680 --> 01:11:11,560
Speaker 3: So brutal, embarrassing loss last week makes me want to

1504
01:11:11,600 --> 01:11:13,040
Speaker 3: bet McVay even more.

1505
01:11:12,960 --> 01:11:15,040
Speaker 2: Because this is the exact tip Spody bounces back.

1506
01:11:16,200 --> 01:11:20,599
Speaker 3: He basically owns the Cardinals. I just talked about green

1507
01:11:20,640 --> 01:11:25,559
Speaker 3: Bay being Chicago's daddy. McVeigh is the Cardinals daddy big

1508
01:11:25,600 --> 01:11:27,599
Speaker 3: time here and just all the stats are insane.

1509
01:11:28,840 --> 01:11:33,639
Speaker 1: In his career slapping the base big time, twelve and.

1510
01:11:33,640 --> 01:11:37,599
Speaker 3: Four against the spread, McVay when he plays Arizona on

1511
01:11:37,640 --> 01:11:40,519
Speaker 3: the road in Arizona, McVay seven and one.

1512
01:11:40,360 --> 01:11:41,880
Speaker 2: Straight up and against the spread.

1513
01:11:41,920 --> 01:11:46,559
Speaker 3: In his career as a favorite in Arizona six and

1514
01:11:46,640 --> 01:11:48,240
Speaker 3: zero straight up against the spread.

1515
01:11:48,400 --> 01:11:50,800
Speaker 2: So, oh goodness, we've just seen it.

1516
01:11:50,920 --> 01:11:54,439
Speaker 3: McVeigh has dominated the Cardinals through what is a three

1517
01:11:54,479 --> 01:11:59,280
Speaker 3: different coaching hires. Since he's on this crazy run, he's well,

1518
01:11:59,280 --> 01:12:01,360
Speaker 3: it's just funny. It's like you just see the dysfunction

1519
01:12:01,400 --> 01:12:04,240
Speaker 3: of Arizona. That's what I side the Rams. He's been

1520
01:12:04,280 --> 01:12:07,040
Speaker 3: to two Super Bowls and he's just owned them divisionally.

1521
01:12:07,120 --> 01:12:10,200
Speaker 3: This whole run with McVeigh, and you know, we talk

1522
01:12:10,240 --> 01:12:12,479
Speaker 3: all the time, there's just certain teams divisionally in matchup

1523
01:12:12,479 --> 01:12:15,120
Speaker 3: with other teams that there's weird numbers and trends that

1524
01:12:15,280 --> 01:12:17,719
Speaker 3: back it up. And it's really when you look into it,

1525
01:12:17,800 --> 01:12:19,799
Speaker 3: it makes sense because it's how it's all about matchup

1526
01:12:19,840 --> 01:12:21,960
Speaker 3: and scheme, and some teams just don't match up right

1527
01:12:22,040 --> 01:12:25,200
Speaker 3: or scheme right against certain teams. And now it sounds

1528
01:12:25,240 --> 01:12:28,280
Speaker 3: really stupid when I really dove into this one, it's

1529
01:12:28,320 --> 01:12:30,760
Speaker 3: just because Arizona has literally never had any type of

1530
01:12:30,800 --> 01:12:33,599
Speaker 3: lineback play, and you look into it, they've getten dominated

1531
01:12:33,640 --> 01:12:37,080
Speaker 3: this matchup by outside runs and tight ends up the scene.

1532
01:12:37,240 --> 01:12:40,519
Speaker 3: So it's like McVeigh has shown them every year what

1533
01:12:40,560 --> 01:12:42,640
Speaker 3: he's going to do against them and they can't stop it.

1534
01:12:42,840 --> 01:12:47,080
Speaker 3: And even more so this year they use twelve personnel

1535
01:12:47,240 --> 01:12:49,400
Speaker 3: more than they have in the past. So it's even

1536
01:12:49,439 --> 01:12:51,599
Speaker 3: more of a reason I like the Rams here because

1537
01:12:51,640 --> 01:12:53,920
Speaker 3: in the past they've dominated this matchup when they weren't

1538
01:12:54,040 --> 01:12:56,800
Speaker 3: running that many two tight end sets. This year that's

1539
01:12:56,800 --> 01:12:58,720
Speaker 3: like their bread and butter. And we've seen that time

1540
01:12:58,720 --> 01:13:00,719
Speaker 3: and time again every week. I mean, how many times

1541
01:13:00,720 --> 01:13:03,280
Speaker 3: you see it on first down, that five yard dump

1542
01:13:03,280 --> 01:13:05,200
Speaker 3: off to the tight end to the left, to the right.

1543
01:13:05,200 --> 01:13:09,640
Speaker 1: It's is twelve personnel, thirteen personnel. If they could it

1544
01:13:09,680 --> 01:13:13,280
Speaker 1: would be fourteen personnel. Like they've gone four deep on

1545
01:13:13,360 --> 01:13:15,120
Speaker 1: their tight ends this year. It's been one of the

1546
01:13:15,680 --> 01:13:19,840
Speaker 1: new schemes and new sort of creative tacks that Sean

1547
01:13:19,920 --> 01:13:22,320
Speaker 1: McVay has added to the to the game plan. It's

1548
01:13:22,360 --> 01:13:22,719
Speaker 1: been great.

1549
01:13:23,760 --> 01:13:23,960
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1550
01:13:24,000 --> 01:13:26,200
Speaker 3: So again it's it's like a weird thing where I

1551
01:13:26,240 --> 01:13:27,880
Speaker 3: wanted to be on the Cardinals and I once again

1552
01:13:27,880 --> 01:13:30,320
Speaker 3: I'm on another big favorite here. So so I's wrong

1553
01:13:30,360 --> 01:13:32,200
Speaker 3: with this week? I'm getting I'm getting a little spooked

1554
01:13:32,200 --> 01:13:35,160
Speaker 3: about it. But I just think it's it's a week

1555
01:13:35,280 --> 01:13:39,000
Speaker 3: of Okay, our people are reacting to the best week.

1556
01:13:39,080 --> 01:13:41,120
Speaker 3: Are people backing off this Rams team because of what

1557
01:13:41,160 --> 01:13:43,479
Speaker 3: happened last week? And I would say it's gone the

1558
01:13:43,520 --> 01:13:45,160
Speaker 3: other way, right. I talked a couple of pros. You've

1559
01:13:45,160 --> 01:13:47,400
Speaker 3: come in pretty heavy on this Cardinals team. So a

1560
01:13:47,400 --> 01:13:48,960
Speaker 3: couple of books out there. I did open this at

1561
01:13:49,000 --> 01:13:50,760
Speaker 3: nine to nine and a half it's like we said,

1562
01:13:50,800 --> 01:13:52,080
Speaker 3: it's down to eight and a half, eight at a

1563
01:13:52,120 --> 01:13:54,840
Speaker 3: couple of books. So if you like, if you're like

1564
01:13:54,880 --> 01:13:56,599
Speaker 3: me and you like the Rams, I'm gonna wait, see

1565
01:13:56,600 --> 01:13:57,680
Speaker 3: what the pros do here and see if I can

1566
01:13:57,720 --> 01:13:58,760
Speaker 3: get under to seven.

1567
01:14:01,040 --> 01:14:11,120
Speaker 1: Boy Rams, Packers, Ravens, Bills. Am I the only guy

1568
01:14:11,200 --> 01:14:14,040
Speaker 1: who acts like a professional vetter on this show anymore?

1569
01:14:14,960 --> 01:14:18,800
Speaker 1: Going with the Jets? Good lord, Let's talk about some

1570
01:14:18,840 --> 01:14:22,280
Speaker 1: primetime games. We know everybody's gonna bet the prime time games.

1571
01:14:22,320 --> 01:14:25,120
Speaker 1: These are the spotlight standalone island games that we love.

1572
01:14:25,560 --> 01:14:28,840
Speaker 1: Houston and Kansas City Kansas City minus three at hard

1573
01:14:28,920 --> 01:14:31,599
Speaker 1: Rock bet minus three and a half. In most places,

1574
01:14:31,640 --> 01:14:34,080
Speaker 1: it's moved in the Texans direction. The majority of the

1575
01:14:34,120 --> 01:14:37,479
Speaker 1: bets are the Texans, like the Bengals. I think this

1576
01:14:37,560 --> 01:14:42,320
Speaker 1: is another one that is a public dog. Simon feels

1577
01:14:42,320 --> 01:14:45,160
Speaker 1: like the right time to fade the Texans does.

1578
01:14:45,200 --> 01:14:46,479
Speaker 2: I feel like it's moved too much?

1579
01:14:46,800 --> 01:14:49,200
Speaker 3: And I talked a little bit about it on Sunday

1580
01:14:49,240 --> 01:14:50,360
Speaker 3: night where I was like, I feel like I'm na

1581
01:14:50,400 --> 01:14:52,320
Speaker 3: end up on the Chiefs and I said it was

1582
01:14:52,320 --> 01:14:53,720
Speaker 3: four and a half. I was like, this much, I

1583
01:14:53,720 --> 01:14:56,479
Speaker 3: gotta come down at a couple proceed other they're like, yeah,

1584
01:14:56,520 --> 01:14:58,880
Speaker 3: I love Houston here, this is a great match for Houston,

1585
01:14:58,920 --> 01:14:59,639
Speaker 3: especially defensively.

1586
01:14:59,640 --> 01:15:01,120
Speaker 2: How they up with this Chiefs team.

1587
01:15:01,479 --> 01:15:04,600
Speaker 3: And on the flip side, look, we've been talking a

1588
01:15:04,600 --> 01:15:07,639
Speaker 3: little bit about this Chief's identity defensively just feels lost

1589
01:15:07,720 --> 01:15:09,839
Speaker 3: right now, Like it feels like all year their defense

1590
01:15:09,880 --> 01:15:11,840
Speaker 3: has not been We're used to his bags, like usually

1591
01:15:11,880 --> 01:15:14,120
Speaker 3: they get better, especially by the time we get to December,

1592
01:15:14,840 --> 01:15:16,840
Speaker 3: and they still have not improved the way we thought

1593
01:15:16,880 --> 01:15:19,559
Speaker 3: they're going to. And that's just how football is so tough, Right,

1594
01:15:19,600 --> 01:15:21,000
Speaker 3: you lose a couple of guys, you don't hit the

1595
01:15:21,080 --> 01:15:23,640
Speaker 3: draft right, You're losing guys at key positions. You just

1596
01:15:23,680 --> 01:15:26,400
Speaker 3: can't cover those up right teams that exploit those weaknesses.

1597
01:15:26,479 --> 01:15:31,240
Speaker 3: So shocked, shocked the numbers move so much, honestly, so,

1598
01:15:32,600 --> 01:15:34,000
Speaker 3: I don't know, chat. It feels like we're doing the

1599
01:15:34,000 --> 01:15:35,479
Speaker 3: same thing we do with the Lions. We're betting on

1600
01:15:35,520 --> 01:15:37,360
Speaker 3: past performance and what we think should be happening.

1601
01:15:37,360 --> 01:15:39,360
Speaker 2: It's just we are we all accepted.

1602
01:15:39,439 --> 01:15:39,600
Speaker 3: To me.

1603
01:15:39,680 --> 01:15:45,040
Speaker 1: The difference is the Chiefs have actually played well this year. Yeah,

1604
01:15:45,080 --> 01:15:47,439
Speaker 1: they just been on the wrong side of the close games,

1605
01:15:47,800 --> 01:15:50,320
Speaker 1: whereas the Lions haven't played well this year, and the

1606
01:15:50,360 --> 01:15:55,160
Speaker 1: Lions have some clearly some clear issues and clear personnel

1607
01:15:55,200 --> 01:15:59,120
Speaker 1: issues and clear holes in their roster. We can say

1608
01:15:59,120 --> 01:16:00,840
Speaker 1: that the Chiefs have wholes and the roster, but they're

1609
01:16:00,840 --> 01:16:04,600
Speaker 1: also running it more effectively than they ever have, and

1610
01:16:05,040 --> 01:16:09,599
Speaker 1: they still have high performing players on defense, and they

1611
01:16:09,600 --> 01:16:14,880
Speaker 1: still have Patrick Mahomes who's doing wildly creative things while

1612
01:16:14,880 --> 01:16:17,120
Speaker 1: holding the ball for an exceptionally long period of time

1613
01:16:17,160 --> 01:16:21,800
Speaker 1: and still being successful. So like, I get it, Like

1614
01:16:23,240 --> 01:16:25,560
Speaker 1: I'm going to hold onto the Chiefs with my fingernails,

1615
01:16:28,240 --> 01:16:32,080
Speaker 1: and I feel like right now at three the numbers

1616
01:16:32,080 --> 01:16:32,719
Speaker 1: move too much.

1617
01:16:33,960 --> 01:16:36,000
Speaker 3: It has well, like we've been saying for what feels

1618
01:16:36,000 --> 01:16:38,519
Speaker 3: like five years now, if it is three and a half,

1619
01:16:39,000 --> 01:16:41,559
Speaker 3: that is the time you're supposed to go against Homes.

1620
01:16:41,600 --> 01:16:44,800
Speaker 3: Like with the hook, it's been paying out and just

1621
01:16:44,840 --> 01:16:46,479
Speaker 3: even these last three weeks, like I just said, they've

1622
01:16:46,479 --> 01:16:49,000
Speaker 3: been losing these close games. All three of the games

1623
01:16:49,000 --> 01:16:52,040
Speaker 3: were decided by three points. So I totally get.

1624
01:16:51,880 --> 01:16:53,439
Speaker 2: If you're like, Okay, well I'm getting the hook.

1625
01:16:53,600 --> 01:16:55,599
Speaker 3: All their games are close and ugly because again, they're

1626
01:16:55,640 --> 01:16:57,679
Speaker 3: not that good of a team, this Chiefs team. Why

1627
01:16:57,680 --> 01:16:59,519
Speaker 3: would you not just finally take this text team plus

1628
01:16:59,560 --> 01:17:01,720
Speaker 3: three and a half. But we talked about we were

1629
01:17:01,720 --> 01:17:03,439
Speaker 3: working with hard rock book here. We both want to

1630
01:17:03,479 --> 01:17:05,640
Speaker 3: be on the chief So I'll take the three and

1631
01:17:05,680 --> 01:17:08,000
Speaker 3: the Chiefs hope and pray maybe it gets to two

1632
01:17:08,040 --> 01:17:10,519
Speaker 3: and a half. But it's another thing where if this

1633
01:17:10,640 --> 01:17:12,400
Speaker 3: was last year, a couple of years ago, mean Chat

1634
01:17:12,400 --> 01:17:14,400
Speaker 3: would be probably hammering this one. One of our bigger

1635
01:17:14,400 --> 01:17:16,479
Speaker 3: bets would be in the Chiefs. I don't have that

1636
01:17:16,520 --> 01:17:19,360
Speaker 3: type of confidence. They just unproven this year in one

1637
01:17:19,400 --> 01:17:21,120
Speaker 3: score games. Like we talked about their one and five

1638
01:17:21,160 --> 01:17:23,320
Speaker 3: this season, we knew there's gonna be a regression from

1639
01:17:23,400 --> 01:17:24,880
Speaker 3: las year where I think they're eleven to one or

1640
01:17:24,920 --> 01:17:27,160
Speaker 3: eleven to zero in one score games. This is like

1641
01:17:27,240 --> 01:17:29,760
Speaker 3: next level, Like they've totally totally come back the other

1642
01:17:29,800 --> 01:17:33,320
Speaker 3: way in one score game. So shits are going their way,

1643
01:17:33,680 --> 01:17:36,679
Speaker 3: like we're playing the odds there. But you know, at

1644
01:17:36,680 --> 01:17:38,880
Speaker 3: this number, this becomes the Chiefs number. But three and

1645
01:17:38,880 --> 01:17:40,800
Speaker 3: a half, if you want to be on the Texans,

1646
01:17:41,240 --> 01:17:42,720
Speaker 3: I'd grab it out because I do think the pros

1647
01:17:42,720 --> 01:17:44,640
Speaker 3: are gonna bet that away. I don't see any three

1648
01:17:44,680 --> 01:18:00,120
Speaker 3: and a half's being left by Sunday.

1649
01:17:47,000 --> 01:17:56,160
Speaker 1: Read all right, the Eagles and the Chargers, and the

1650
01:17:56,320 --> 01:17:58,720
Speaker 1: Chargers are now two and a half point dogs. The

1651
01:17:58,840 --> 01:18:02,920
Speaker 1: number has moved to three save Simon. Justin Herbert had

1652
01:18:02,920 --> 01:18:08,160
Speaker 1: a hand surgery yesterday on Monday, and if I had

1653
01:18:08,160 --> 01:18:10,599
Speaker 1: to guess, given what he has played through so far

1654
01:18:10,640 --> 01:18:13,320
Speaker 1: in his career, he hasn't been ruled out and he

1655
01:18:13,400 --> 01:18:16,200
Speaker 1: might not be ruled out, so I would expect him

1656
01:18:16,200 --> 01:18:19,360
Speaker 1: to play. But is Justin Herbert's non throwing hand going

1657
01:18:19,400 --> 01:18:21,920
Speaker 1: to be what determines whether or not we bet this game.

1658
01:18:23,400 --> 01:18:25,360
Speaker 1: It's already moved in the Chargers direction.

1659
01:18:26,760 --> 01:18:27,880
Speaker 2: Which I can't believe.

1660
01:18:28,240 --> 01:18:32,720
Speaker 3: It's another thing where it's you know, a couple of

1661
01:18:32,760 --> 01:18:36,320
Speaker 3: pros I talked to absolutely love this Chargers team, and

1662
01:18:36,320 --> 01:18:38,400
Speaker 3: as an Eagles fan, it's like, oh my god, I'm

1663
01:18:38,439 --> 01:18:40,519
Speaker 3: missing something here because I thought this would be a

1664
01:18:40,560 --> 01:18:42,559
Speaker 3: great spot for this Eagles team and the fact that

1665
01:18:43,800 --> 01:18:46,000
Speaker 3: we've seen it with this Chargers team, they just have

1666
01:18:46,080 --> 01:18:49,519
Speaker 3: no offensive line. Every week he is running for his

1667
01:18:49,640 --> 01:18:52,040
Speaker 3: life and you know, as much shit as you want

1668
01:18:52,040 --> 01:18:54,280
Speaker 3: to give this the Eagles team, they've been getting after

1669
01:18:54,360 --> 01:18:55,959
Speaker 3: quarterbacks their defense.

1670
01:18:56,080 --> 01:18:58,280
Speaker 2: What happened last week was they could not stop the run.

1671
01:18:58,400 --> 01:19:00,800
Speaker 3: So that's some of the Chargers can do, but you

1672
01:19:00,840 --> 01:19:02,960
Speaker 3: expect after the Eagles got embarrassed when of the best

1673
01:19:03,080 --> 01:19:05,519
Speaker 3: d season in the league, we'll get the guys right

1674
01:19:05,560 --> 01:19:08,720
Speaker 3: for this Metrigans Chargers team. So I can't believe it

1675
01:19:08,800 --> 01:19:10,599
Speaker 3: is what it is. I've taken a piece of this

1676
01:19:10,640 --> 01:19:12,280
Speaker 3: Eagles team, especially now it's at two and a half,

1677
01:19:12,320 --> 01:19:16,000
Speaker 3: because there is a possibility that Herbert does miss this game.

1678
01:19:16,040 --> 01:19:18,400
Speaker 3: Like Chad said, he just got surgery yesterday on his

1679
01:19:18,479 --> 01:19:21,000
Speaker 3: non thrown hand. Can he get a wrapped up, true

1680
01:19:21,040 --> 01:19:23,759
Speaker 3: competitor with a psychopath coach put him in there? Yeah,

1681
01:19:23,920 --> 01:19:25,680
Speaker 3: if anyone if this is the perfect team for that

1682
01:19:25,720 --> 01:19:28,599
Speaker 3: to happen, Like Herbert the aultimate competitor with a coach

1683
01:19:28,680 --> 01:19:31,840
Speaker 3: equal kind of thought process. They need this win just

1684
01:19:31,880 --> 01:19:34,080
Speaker 3: so much Eagles do. They're fighting for their own playoff life.

1685
01:19:34,120 --> 01:19:37,000
Speaker 3: So it's a really unique spot where it's like, I

1686
01:19:37,120 --> 01:19:39,679
Speaker 3: kind of kind of like the Chargers, but it's about

1687
01:19:39,720 --> 01:19:42,360
Speaker 3: the number. So plus three plus three and a half,

1688
01:19:42,720 --> 01:19:44,040
Speaker 3: I was gonna be in the Charger, but now we're

1689
01:19:44,120 --> 01:19:45,559
Speaker 3: under the number of the key number of three on

1690
01:19:45,600 --> 01:19:48,360
Speaker 3: this Eagles team that you know, as bad as they've

1691
01:19:48,360 --> 01:19:51,680
Speaker 3: been these last two weeks, right, these embarrassing losses. If

1692
01:19:51,680 --> 01:19:53,639
Speaker 3: you keep going back before that, they've been finding ways

1693
01:19:53,680 --> 01:19:55,479
Speaker 3: to win these close games all year. They've been playing

1694
01:19:55,479 --> 01:19:58,240
Speaker 3: bad all year. It's just that's not fresh in people's

1695
01:19:58,280 --> 01:20:02,080
Speaker 3: minds because they got blown out and embarrassing fashion last

1696
01:20:02,080 --> 01:20:04,280
Speaker 3: week in standalone game, and the week before that they

1697
01:20:04,280 --> 01:20:07,599
Speaker 3: had a total melt down against Dallas. So another game

1698
01:20:07,600 --> 01:20:09,799
Speaker 3: where I'm not gonna go too heavy on it because

1699
01:20:09,920 --> 01:20:11,960
Speaker 3: everything is just so off with this Egos team and

1700
01:20:11,960 --> 01:20:14,320
Speaker 3: we're so late in a year here that you know,

1701
01:20:15,400 --> 01:20:20,800
Speaker 3: it's a team that I would say probably should be

1702
01:20:20,840 --> 01:20:23,280
Speaker 3: a minus four minus four and a half favorite to

1703
01:20:23,439 --> 01:20:26,479
Speaker 3: most people's models, but they're this low just because of

1704
01:20:26,520 --> 01:20:28,800
Speaker 3: what we talked about. It's all the off stuff, all

1705
01:20:28,840 --> 01:20:31,960
Speaker 3: the mental stuff, is how everything is just so negative

1706
01:20:31,960 --> 01:20:33,920
Speaker 3: around this team, this organization. Where on the flip side

1707
01:20:33,920 --> 01:20:36,240
Speaker 3: of this Chargers team, you know that was a big

1708
01:20:36,280 --> 01:20:38,360
Speaker 3: win last week, they really were in a dog fight

1709
01:20:38,360 --> 01:20:41,439
Speaker 3: against a divisional opponent, and you know, I just another

1710
01:20:41,479 --> 01:20:43,720
Speaker 3: team where it's like the Dallas and the Lions thing.

1711
01:20:43,760 --> 01:20:45,799
Speaker 3: It feels like these are two teams going to opposite directions.

1712
01:20:45,840 --> 01:20:48,400
Speaker 3: The Chargers, they even they're all banged up on their.

1713
01:20:48,360 --> 01:20:50,479
Speaker 2: Last leg they believe they can get that seventh seed.

1714
01:20:51,080 --> 01:20:53,120
Speaker 3: This Eagles team they feel like they know they're about

1715
01:20:53,120 --> 01:20:55,200
Speaker 3: to collapse and fall out of the playoffs in Dallas

1716
01:20:55,280 --> 01:20:58,479
Speaker 3: to steal the division. So it's it's an interesting game

1717
01:20:58,520 --> 01:21:00,720
Speaker 3: and an interesting number here that you know, like I

1718
01:21:00,800 --> 01:21:03,280
Speaker 3: just said, the two and a half, they're telling you, Herbert,

1719
01:21:03,280 --> 01:21:05,439
Speaker 3: it's gonna play, So I'm going to take it out

1720
01:21:05,560 --> 01:21:08,360
Speaker 3: just in case he doesn't. But it feels like it's

1721
01:21:08,360 --> 01:21:10,160
Speaker 3: pretty telling you're in the week to Herbert will be

1722
01:21:10,160 --> 01:21:11,240
Speaker 3: back for a Monday's.

1723
01:21:10,920 --> 01:21:15,840
Speaker 1: Game, Simon. In the first half of the show, we

1724
01:21:15,840 --> 01:21:19,000
Speaker 1: were so sharp Washington plus one and a half, Simon says,

1725
01:21:19,280 --> 01:21:22,160
Speaker 1: talking about the Jags plus two buying out of our

1726
01:21:22,160 --> 01:21:25,320
Speaker 1: colts position. We talked about New Orleans plus nine, talk

1727
01:21:25,360 --> 01:21:27,960
Speaker 1: about the Jets at plus two and a half chats Choice,

1728
01:21:28,160 --> 01:21:34,160
Speaker 1: talked about the Browns, the Browns at home, and then

1729
01:21:34,200 --> 01:21:40,040
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, we're Seattle where the Ravens, Where Buffalo?

1730
01:21:40,720 --> 01:21:44,639
Speaker 1: Where Green Bay? Where the Rams? What happened to us?

1731
01:21:44,920 --> 01:21:47,120
Speaker 1: All these games are going to be games that we

1732
01:21:47,200 --> 01:21:49,720
Speaker 1: have to pick up again on Thursday once we get

1733
01:21:49,720 --> 01:21:52,400
Speaker 1: some feedback and see how moves are trending. And see

1734
01:21:52,400 --> 01:21:54,400
Speaker 1: who's going to be playing and who might be not

1735
01:21:54,600 --> 01:21:57,880
Speaker 1: who might be sitting. This has been Sharper Square, part

1736
01:21:58,040 --> 01:22:02,120
Speaker 1: of the Volume podcast network. We will be back on

1737
01:22:02,240 --> 01:22:05,559
Speaker 1: YouTube on Thursday with the games We Are Zero and

1738
01:22:05,600 --> 01:22:09,120
Speaker 1: Non Plus or our head Head Battles, Brass Balls, so

1739
01:22:09,280 --> 01:22:12,200
Speaker 1: much more. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square.

1740
01:22:12,600 --> 01:22:15,280
Speaker 1: Like the video, subscribe to the channel. Also download us

1741
01:22:15,280 --> 01:22:20,840
Speaker 1: from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe,

1742
01:22:21,400 --> 01:22:23,400
Speaker 1: leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is

1743
01:22:23,400 --> 01:22:26,559
Speaker 1: a gift until next time. Love you.

1744
01:22:28,040 --> 01:22:28,880
Speaker 2: This isn't golling.

1745
01:22:28,960 --> 01:22:32,639
Speaker 1: You're not at our own. This is NFL, which stands

1746
01:22:32,680 --> 01:22:33,479
Speaker 1: for not prolonged.

1747
01:22:33,520 --> 01:22:36,040
Speaker 2: When you make them goals, I'll be telling grocery