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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along
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Speaker 2: in the tantrum, going to hang up if I didn't
Speaker 2: ask about the real wage.
Speaker 3: Let's go there with a guy who predicted this.
Speaker 2: He was just outstanding of saying the negative gloom of
Speaker 2: negative real wages would flip to a positive real wage
Speaker 2: Neil Dota Renaissance Macro. Can you model positive real wages
Speaker 2: into the end of the year.
Speaker 4: You know, I think that's probable, but I think that's
Speaker 4: largely because inflation is going to be slowing, not because
Speaker 4: not because you know, nominal wage growth is going to accelerate,
Speaker 4: so you know, I think it's uh. I think that
Speaker 4: compositional story is important. You know, my optimism around real
Speaker 4: wage is improving is largely because I'm more confident, I think,
Speaker 4: relative to consensus, that inflation is cooling throughout the remainder
Speaker 4: of the year. If you look at what we've seen
Speaker 4: over the first quarter. Obviously it was a very strong
Speaker 4: quarter for inflation, as we all know and believe it
Speaker 4: or not, real wages didn't actually go up all that much,
Speaker 4: if at all, in Q one. So I think we
Speaker 4: have to be careful here about kind of tying the
Speaker 4: firm inflament because right now, Tom, it feels like to
Speaker 4: me that people look at the or the consensus looks
Speaker 4: at the strong and inflation numbers in the first quarter
Speaker 4: as reinforcing kind of like this inflationary boom like dynamic
Speaker 4: in the US economy. But I think when you take
Speaker 4: a step back with you know, we do know that
Speaker 4: wage growth has been moderating. Most of the forward looking
Speaker 4: indicators that we look at, you know, things like the
Speaker 4: quits rate posted wages suggests further cooling in in nominal
Speaker 4: compensation growth. If you have this sort of inflation continuing,
Speaker 4: you do need to start worrying a little bit about
Speaker 4: what that means for real wages and in turn what
Speaker 4: that means for consumer spending and corporate earnings. So you know,
Speaker 4: I mean, fortunately, I tend to think that inflation will slow,
Speaker 4: but I don't necessarily look at, you know, the inflation
Speaker 4: data in the first quarter as kind of reinforcing the
Speaker 4: stronger growth outlet. I actually think it presents a risk
Speaker 4: if it continues.
Speaker 5: All right, So you know, we've had a busy economic
Speaker 5: release schedule over the last twenty four hours with Q
Speaker 5: one GDP and then today's inflation. Can you wrap it
Speaker 5: all up for us in And how do you think
Speaker 5: the Fed is going to look at the last twenty
Speaker 5: four hours worth of data.
Speaker 4: I think they'll look at it and say, we have
Speaker 4: nothing to do right now. This sort of reinforces their
Speaker 4: belief that they have the benefit of time at the
Speaker 4: end of the day. I mean, you know, we have
Speaker 4: strong jobs growth and firm inflation. That's not a reason
Speaker 4: for them to cut rates at the moment.
Speaker 5: So all right, so let's kind of look ahead a
Speaker 5: little bit here. I mean, what is the inflation I mean,
Speaker 5: you think inflation is going to kind of moderate here
Speaker 5: in the back half of the year.
Speaker 6: If so, where will it moderate? Where will we see it?
Speaker 4: Well, I mean, ultimately I think it starts from the
Speaker 4: labor market on out. Okay, right, And you know, I
Speaker 4: think this sort of bottoms up approach is interesting, and
Speaker 4: certainly that's how people kind of nail the first quarter
Speaker 4: inflation data. But ultimately I think you have to stick
Speaker 4: to first principles. And what I rely on is basically
Speaker 4: a standard triangle model of inflation. You have embedded inflation
Speaker 4: or sort of an inflation expectations. You have a proxy
Speaker 4: for aggregate demand like the unemployment gap, and then you
Speaker 4: have some kind of cost push measure, right like exchange rates,
Speaker 4: import prices, something like that. So that's the standard triangle
Speaker 4: model of inflation that my former boss, Ethan Harris taught
Speaker 4: me about many many years.
Speaker 2: Ago in my mid Okay, here's let me lay out
Speaker 2: the next twenty minutes. Cam Dawson's waiting, she's having a tantrum.
Speaker 2: She's not on yet. I mean, we'll get cam Dawson
Speaker 2: out on the market's futures of forty two. It's a
Speaker 2: cam Dawson market, but we're doing Neil Dotta. Yes, we'll
Speaker 2: get to the New York Giants. But first Neil Dotta.
Speaker 2: Right where I wanted to go was Ethan Harris.
Speaker 3: Neil Dotta.
Speaker 2: Doctor Harris wrote a blistering LinkedIn article yesterday saying, would
Speaker 2: everybody wake up, calm down, and look at trim mean
Speaker 2: inflation statistics? Which is your favorite? Ethan Harris? A gusted inflation,
Speaker 2: Dallas Fed Cleveland this whichever? Which is Neil Dutta's favorite
Speaker 2: inflation statistic?
Speaker 4: Well, I mean, Ethan has been harping a lot on
Speaker 4: the trim mean inflation. I mean my pushback to that
Speaker 4: is that there's historically been a much higher I mean,
Speaker 4: there's an upward bias and a lot of these trim
Speaker 4: mean measures, trim mean median PC, they tend to run
Speaker 4: a lot higher than traditional core measures of inflation. If
Speaker 4: you go back to two thousand and eight as an example,
Speaker 4: trim mean inflation was running a lot hotter than traditional
Speaker 4: core and we I mean, could you imagine what would
Speaker 4: have happened if the FED was paying more attention to
Speaker 4: trim mean back then? You know, at any rate, I mean,
Speaker 4: what I meant to say with the triangle model is
Speaker 4: that if you go through these components, I mean inflation expectations.
Speaker 4: After coming down last year, they've kind of stabilized this year.
Speaker 4: Unit labor costs are slowing, right, I mean, and the
Speaker 4: dollar is stronger. So when you talk about slowing unit
Speaker 4: labor cost growth and firming dollar, where should we be
Speaker 4: about an upside inflation scenario? So I think you have
Speaker 4: to kind of stick with first principles. And you know,
Speaker 4: that's why I think we should the consensus should at
Speaker 4: least be open to the prospect of downside inflation surprises
Speaker 4: over the coming months on a magnitude of the upside
Speaker 4: surprises we got in Q one.
Speaker 2: Noah one question, the Giants go with a twenty year
Speaker 2: old kid from LSU. I think he walks into camp
Speaker 2: twenty one years old? Are these kids too young when
Speaker 2: they come to the NFL?
Speaker 3: Now?
Speaker 4: I mean, who am I to say that? I mean,
Speaker 4: I mean, they're great athletes. I don't know. I just
Speaker 4: hope that. Yeah, he helps the Giants offense spread out
Speaker 4: a little.
Speaker 3: Bit neighbors LSU. Yeah, it's fun.
Speaker 2: They went with the fun. Malik, excuse me, they went
Speaker 2: with the fun. You know, they didn't go to the
Speaker 2: boring for or you know, defensive guard or whatever. They
Speaker 2: went with something that's going to create some massive energy
Speaker 2: Malik neighbors.
Speaker 3: There were the New York giants.
Speaker 2: Cameron Dausin joins Now Chief investment Officer, New Edge Wealth Management, Cameron.
Speaker 2: The tech earnings have come in, I guess we've seen
Speaker 2: a good hunk. How is revenue growth doing? Are we
Speaker 2: seeing better than good revenue growth in this earning season?
Speaker 1: It's still healthy. There has been a moderation, mostly in
Speaker 1: some of the consumer names, just because inflation has moderated,
Speaker 1: meaning that you don't have as much pricing power as
Speaker 1: you've had over the last couple of years. But I
Speaker 1: think the real story is not just on the revenue line,
Speaker 1: but it's on the margin line. And how much operating
Speaker 1: leverage these tech companies are getting is absolutely incredible. A
Speaker 1: little bit of cost control and profits absolutely boom. I
Speaker 1: think you then add on top of that that all
Speaker 1: of these large cap names are sitting on massive cash piles.
Speaker 1: That the longer that the FED keeps rates high, the
Speaker 1: more that they get to keep earning big yield on
Speaker 1: those cash piles, which just allows them to do things
Speaker 1: like start dividends and increase buybacks. So clearly for the
Speaker 1: large cap names, there's a very virtuous cycle.
Speaker 2: Sounds like Kim Dawson's sake in the Paul sweety kool
Speaker 2: aid here.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean the dividends.
Speaker 5: It's not the worst thing the world to put out
Speaker 5: a dividend there for your investors. So, Cam, what any
Speaker 5: takeaways just from earning so far this season? I mean, again,
Speaker 5: we're seeing some pretty strong numbers out of the tech names,
Speaker 5: and a lot of folks will say tech has to
Speaker 5: leave this market, so maybe we're in good shape.
Speaker 6: What do you seeing?
Speaker 1: It is encouraging that tech has held up well. We
Speaker 1: think the real tech test for tech will really come
Speaker 1: in the later part of the year and into twenty
Speaker 1: twenty five, because that's when forecasts are for tech earnings
Speaker 1: growth to accelerate rather meaningfully and then for the rest
Speaker 1: of the market to kind of take up the earnings
Speaker 1: growth and really be the key driver. So if that happens,
Speaker 1: and it will be something that is very a very
Speaker 1: high bar for the rest of the market to jump over.
Speaker 1: For now, tech is very strong and at thirty percent
Speaker 1: of the index for the S and P five hundred,
Speaker 1: that remains ultimately the most important sector.
Speaker 5: So I mean then that kind of goes to the
Speaker 5: issue Kim, that a lot of investors I think wrestle
Speaker 5: with which is do I overweight Do I stay overweight
Speaker 5: some of these tech names, or do I try to
Speaker 5: find some value in other parts of the market, whether
Speaker 5: that's financials or healthcare or energy.
Speaker 6: How do you think about that at this stage?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that's the real push pull because tech
Speaker 1: has the earnings growth and the stock momentum, but it's
Speaker 1: extraordinarily crowded. If you look at sector flows, tech is
Speaker 1: the only sector that has had meaningful influence at seventy
Speaker 1: billion dollars using the Deutsche Bank data. And it's also
Speaker 1: really expensive. But on the other hand, if you look
Speaker 1: at the value sectors, they're underloved, under owned, very cheap
Speaker 1: in some areas. However, they don't have that earnings momentum. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they have seeing their stock prices pick up, which is encouraging.
Speaker 2: Okay, I have a toothpaste. Come, I'm going to name
Speaker 2: which one it is. With Kim, you go to the
Speaker 2: heart of the matter, which is ill look at the
Speaker 2: FA screen of a traditional, boring, wonderful, all American value company.
Speaker 2: They don't have the revenue pop. Can you predict the
Speaker 2: next twenty four months, Alawood Zuckerberg wrought that we're going
Speaker 2: to see a new rationalization of Jack Welch like cost
Speaker 2: cutting across all sectors.
Speaker 1: I used to cover gees. So I'm not necessarily going
Speaker 1: to laud the era of the Welch time and kind
Speaker 1: of the aftermath of that, because cost cutting, you can't
Speaker 1: cut your way to growth. I think the reality is
Speaker 1: and this is how we always focus our investments, which
Speaker 1: is once on high return on invested capital. So we
Speaker 1: want to focus on companies that for every dollar that
Speaker 1: they put into their business, they get more dollars out
Speaker 1: than the average bear. And so what that leads to
Speaker 1: is that you do find a lot of that within
Speaker 1: tech names, but there are also places within the industrials
Speaker 1: within even some give.
Speaker 2: Me an example, Come on, give me, it's not an
Speaker 2: average bar, it's an average Ninja turtle. Give give me
Speaker 2: an example, Cam Dawson of a value company doing our
Speaker 2: return on ROIC, doing ROIC in a nice way.
Speaker 1: Yeah. So some of the names within the industrials that
Speaker 1: we do like are in the services side of things.
Speaker 1: I can't give you any specific names, I'm sorry, and
Speaker 1: I don't even have any turtles with me today. But
Speaker 1: if you look at some of the services names that
Speaker 1: mask as industrials, they do a lot of things like
Speaker 1: insurance data and that type thing. They're really good in
Speaker 1: defensive or copy markets and don't have that same kind
Speaker 1: of sensitivity to underlying GDP where you have to see
Speaker 1: an absolutely booming economy just for them to make a
Speaker 1: little bit of money.
Speaker 5: So I guess let's just take a look at this
Speaker 5: economic data we saw in the last twenty four hours. Cam,
Speaker 5: what's your takeaway here as it relates to maybe how
Speaker 5: the Federal Reserve will kind of act over the next
Speaker 5: several months, And you learned anything over the last twenty
Speaker 5: four hours as it relates to our GDP our inflation picture.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's ditto to what data said, which
Speaker 1: is that this data doesn't necessarily mean that the Fed
Speaker 1: has to do anything at this time. We think that
Speaker 1: the bar for rate hikes from here is much much
Speaker 1: higher than the bar for rate cuts. It just means
Speaker 1: that it won't take a lot of eating and economic
Speaker 1: data for the Fed to start putting that cut talk
Speaker 1: back on the table where you'd have to see a
Speaker 1: significant acceleration and inflation for the FED to start raising
Speaker 1: rates further. But we do think that the FED is
Speaker 1: going to keep rates as they are for some time
Speaker 1: because today simply doesn't support any urgency for them to
Speaker 1: start cutting.
Speaker 2: One quick question that we got to go to another
Speaker 2: area with you, Kim Dawson, what's your SPX call twelve
Speaker 2: months forward?
Speaker 1: We think that the returns are going to be closer
Speaker 1: to average given this starting point and what averages high
Speaker 1: single digits, And this starting point is one where you
Speaker 1: have allocations to equities that are not at peak levels
Speaker 1: but are extended, valuations that aren't at peak levels but
Speaker 1: are extended, which just supports that that kind of double
Speaker 1: digit better than average returns that we've had in different
Speaker 1: years is going to be quite hard to achieve.
Speaker 2: Like most people, that really kill its strategy. It started
Speaker 2: out with the individual security analysis. Kim Dawson, we got
Speaker 2: a I still don't get ge Aerospace out of Cincinnati,
Speaker 2: that's on American. But Kim Dawson, Lawrence Culp shows up
Speaker 2: and he's.
Speaker 3: He he's a Danaer and all that he's popped. Are
Speaker 3: you ready? Cam?
Speaker 2: Nineteen point three percent per year since he walked in
Speaker 2: the door. What the what Lawrence called the pieces he
Speaker 2: picked up.
Speaker 3: It's really something.
Speaker 1: What he's done Lean manufacturing is a beautiful thing. It's fantastic.
Speaker 1: The ability to be able to take costs out of
Speaker 1: a business without cutting to the bone and really focus
Speaker 1: sing on the kinds of businesses that can generate a
Speaker 1: great deal of upside. We've seen that with some companies
Speaker 1: like an idex or an ITW that use the eighty
Speaker 1: twenty approach. And the thing about those kinds of names
Speaker 1: is that it's again it gets you back to those
Speaker 1: high return on investing capital. Find companies that for every
Speaker 1: dollar that they put into their business, they get a
Speaker 1: greater farm.
Speaker 3: Kim Dawson, thank you so much for the New Edge.
Speaker 3: Really love it. That was really, really excellent.
Speaker 2: I got like a three hour conversation here right now
Speaker 2: with Mande singing Paul's.
Speaker 3: Got to do a victory lap here on the dividend.
Speaker 2: Mandy, Finally, I mean, I don't even know what with
Speaker 2: the puny dividend they're doing with the dividend payout ratio is,
Speaker 2: But are finally the tech boys going to grow up
Speaker 2: and give us a dividend and critically give us a
Speaker 2: dividend growth that somewhat correlates with their revenue growth.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 7: And look, I think Google and Amazon wards at two
Speaker 7: out of the mag sakes that didn't do the two children. Yes,
Speaker 7: so it puts pressure on Amazon now to good point.
Speaker 2: H And they're like, let means off a cliff, Paul,
Speaker 2: You've been through this. I mean, Apple's got a one
Speaker 2: up them and you know, do a one hundred billion
Speaker 2: share buyback.
Speaker 5: Right, So I mean I'm looking at good at Google
Speaker 5: slash Facebook, you know, eighty billion dollars in free cash
Speaker 5: flow seventy billion they announced.
Speaker 6: This, this buyback, So that's huge.
Speaker 5: Yeah, talk to us about the quarter that What did
Speaker 5: you see in the operations the quarter?
Speaker 6: What stood out for you? Because the market really likes
Speaker 6: what it saw.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 7: I mean, look, everyone thought their search business is getting disrupted.
Speaker 7: They will, you know, slow down in terms of growth rates.
Speaker 7: They come out and really blow it out of the
Speaker 7: park on the search profitability. I mean that was the
Speaker 7: driver of why the operating margin was thirty two percent
Speaker 7: all time high.
Speaker 3: Wow.
Speaker 7: And that just goes to show how much pricing power
Speaker 7: this company has. They can raise the ad auction prices
Speaker 7: without telling advertisers and everyone will pay for it because
Speaker 7: that's how their ROI is on AdSpend. So clearly, you
Speaker 7: know they're flexing their muscle when it comes to ad
Speaker 7: pricing and YouTube and cloud being one hundred billion dollars
Speaker 7: underd business combined growing at over twenty five percent.
Speaker 6: That's the same. That's Tom. That's Tom.
Speaker 5: He's been calling out YouTube for a while here, I'm
Speaker 5: not sure the street.
Speaker 6: Do you think the street fully appreciates it?
Speaker 3: Oh, they do not iorialize you.
Speaker 6: I mean, can can I spin that out?
Speaker 7: There was a dislocation in the valuation that Google had
Speaker 7: versus relative to Microsoft, Microsoft trading at thirty three times
Speaker 7: pee versus Google at twenty three y okay.
Speaker 3: The basic idea here is Apple peels off services. Dan
Speaker 3: I says, no, they'll never do it. I don't know
Speaker 3: what that's worth.
Speaker 2: But Google could peel off or be forced to peel
Speaker 2: off YouTube.
Speaker 3: And it's ginormous. Is that the right you know, CFA term? Yeah?
Speaker 7: I mean their YouTube ad revenue grew twenty one percent.
Speaker 7: The subscription revenue is also north of twenty percent.
Speaker 3: So that's because of.
Speaker 2: Bloomberg surveillance out on YouTube search, Bloomberg podcast continue.
Speaker 7: And engagement is off the roof So I agree. I
Speaker 7: think YouTube itself could be a trillion dollar in market
Speaker 7: cap given its growth rate.
Speaker 3: So that puts Google you'd model out at what three
Speaker 3: trillion with.
Speaker 7: I think so, based on the numbers you saw last night.
Speaker 3: Are they listening to roofs? Come on for New York City.
Speaker 3: There's a whole history here, folks.
Speaker 2: I believe the Morgan Stanley the brain freezes on a Friday.
Speaker 2: Ruthport's a CFO out there. They finally the owners the CEO.
Speaker 2: Are they finally listening to Ruth?
Speaker 3: I think so.
Speaker 7: I mean she has additional responsibility now, you know, in terms,
Speaker 7: and they are looking for a new CFO given she
Speaker 7: has additional responsibility.
Speaker 3: But I'm going to give Paul Sweeney a massive victory
Speaker 3: lap on this one. So I'm going to put it
Speaker 3: up again. I just put it out on.
Speaker 2: Social This is the new world, This is the Sweeney world.
Speaker 2: Daniel Parris, pay a dividend. You don't have to be
Speaker 2: like Totel Europe or BNP Paridius.
Speaker 6: I pay something, so Mandy.
Speaker 5: But I still view AI as a threat to the
Speaker 5: core search business of Google.
Speaker 6: Is that a valid concern? Do you think?
Speaker 7: I mean, look, I could say the same about the
Speaker 7: cloud business for Microsoft. Yes, there is more competition, but
Speaker 7: in search they are the incumbent player. And what they're
Speaker 7: showing right now is they can integrate their generative AI
Speaker 7: stuff with their cloud, with their search and that actually
Speaker 7: is helping the business the pricing power of the business.
Speaker 2: Take what you learned here, I mean, from Texas Instruments
Speaker 2: over to Meta, Facebook, over to the two yesterday, bring
Speaker 2: it over to Apple.
Speaker 3: I believe it's on Tuesday.
Speaker 7: Well, so Apple, I think has a different problem when
Speaker 7: it comes to the China side of the business. The
Speaker 7: twenty percent revenue exposure, you can't do anything about that.
Speaker 7: Handseid revenue exposure they have, and the services side of
Speaker 7: the business is not going to look as good as
Speaker 7: you know.
Speaker 3: Microsoft and Google does a threat in their margins.
Speaker 7: It does. I mean, look, they have been in the
Speaker 7: antitrust crosshairs, even though you know not much will happen
Speaker 7: in the near term, but the fact that they can't
Speaker 7: you know, keep their take rates at thirty percent they
Speaker 7: used to have in the app store, that's gonna hurt
Speaker 7: the business. And they can't roll out new genei services
Speaker 7: because they don't have the infrastructure. I mean, all these
Speaker 7: companies are raising capex thirty forty fifty percent. Apple doesn't
Speaker 7: spend as much on their data centers and and that's
Speaker 7: where I think they will be sort of there behind
Speaker 7: and and it will be very hard for them to
Speaker 7: catch up in terms of, you know, the generative AI stuff,
Speaker 7: which is what the growth part of the.
Speaker 3: Business, the generative AI, Well, that's it. Don't get well,
Speaker 3: that's my question.
Speaker 5: I think they kind of do. So I was looking
Speaker 5: forward to this May seventh. I guess their their pig
Speaker 5: event coming up.
Speaker 6: Yeah, what are we going to do? Are they going
Speaker 6: to have a I guess transformative announcement?
Speaker 7: Do you think they will innovate with their chips? The
Speaker 7: biggest advantage that Apple has is it controls it's chips
Speaker 7: in their devices, and that's where the on device generative
Speaker 7: AI play is still there. No one else can take
Speaker 7: the distribution away from them. They control the distribution, and
Speaker 7: if they're able to show something like that, that will
Speaker 7: drive a heavy refreshed cycle. But in the end, this
Speaker 7: company is still driven by iPhone refreshes and iMac refreshes
Speaker 7: and all those Yeah.
Speaker 2: I had of fans stop me in the street. And
Speaker 2: they said, is it true that Mandeep and interrog can't
Speaker 2: be in the same building at the same time?
Speaker 3: Is that true? Like, can you ever ever.
Speaker 2: Talked to each You can get along very but you
Speaker 2: have you can't be in the same building at the
Speaker 2: same time.
Speaker 6: No, it's kind of like key Man risk. You can't
Speaker 6: do it for technology, you tell you.
Speaker 3: Look at the front pages, Lisa, what do you have?
Speaker 8: All Right?
Speaker 9: College students, this is in the times, are becoming reservation scalpers.
Speaker 8: It's a new side hustle that they're the thought of.
Speaker 9: Because you know, in New York City people are always
Speaker 9: wanting to get reservations to these high end restaurants you
Speaker 9: can't get in. So what these students are doing is
Speaker 9: they're making reservations. They're posting them on this platform, card
Speaker 9: Appointment Trader, that's a platform while people bid on reservations.
Speaker 8: So they're booking these reservations.
Speaker 9: There's one college student in Rhode Island who booked who
Speaker 9: booked a reservation for a French restaurant in Soho. He
Speaker 9: made eight hundred and fifty five dollars just from someone
Speaker 9: who wanted to get in there. He made one thousand
Speaker 9: dollars from a reservation.
Speaker 8: At Carbone because someone wanted to get in there. He
Speaker 8: said he made seventy thousand dollars. You're on this side, hustle.
Speaker 8: New Yorkers don't like it.
Speaker 9: They say it's ruining the restaurant industry because you know,
Speaker 9: we're New Yorkers. We want to get into different, you
Speaker 9: know places, and we can't because these kids are buying
Speaker 9: up all the reservations.
Speaker 8: They're not even going, they're just making money off to
Speaker 8: the day's meekings.
Speaker 6: Walk in and slide the person at the counter at
Speaker 6: twenty bucks and say, you know, just come on exactly.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know. They go, oh my god, it's you.
Speaker 3: You know, I'm flattered. And you go up the stairs
Speaker 3: to the back bar in the bag and you sit
Speaker 3: on a little chair and your children are like, this
Speaker 3: is so cool. And there's the bar right there with
Speaker 3: the mirror.
Speaker 2: Okay, and you don't, you know, you give them fifty
Speaker 2: bucks or whatever, and now it's eight hundred dollars.
Speaker 8: Sometimes a thousand. Justin Bieber I didn't even get into Carbone.
Speaker 3: It's just ridiculous.
Speaker 9: So yeah, and the restaurants don't like it because if
Speaker 9: those reservations aren't sold. Then they're stuck with empty tables,
Speaker 9: and that's when it just is out that way.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I've not been there, so I'll defer to time
Speaker 5: restaurant Scalpers Smith last night, Oh, strip top.
Speaker 3: Oh we're sitting over on Third Avenue.
Speaker 6: Fantastic pack.
Speaker 3: You are so old school.
Speaker 5: We had This is my investment banking team from nineteen
Speaker 5: eighty six where we still get together.
Speaker 3: My god, they let you bring in the drips in
Speaker 3: the cath.
Speaker 8: Exactly did you have to pay for that reservation?
Speaker 2: Or we know some peoplets after thought, I had a birthday.
Speaker 3: Where do you want to go? She goes to Mermaid.
Speaker 3: So there's a new Mermaid down in Soho. It's the
Speaker 3: first time I've been below fifty ninth.
Speaker 6: Stround Like, why would gets?
Speaker 2: You know?
Speaker 6: Nice?
Speaker 3: I texted Pharaoh, I said, come on over, I'm at
Speaker 3: the Mermaid.
Speaker 6: He was in Capri or something, of course exactly, but.
Speaker 8: What are you have pressed your off?
Speaker 9: Another thing in New Yorkers that they always talk about,
Speaker 9: you know, it's congestion pricing. This one is the illegal
Speaker 9: weed shops. That's another issue in New York City. I've
Speaker 9: heard this this out, Yeah, that one of the this
Speaker 9: is from the New York Times. An illegal shopping queens
Speaker 9: that's called Badega just received a permit. And this is
Speaker 9: kind of a backtrack because New York said they were
Speaker 9: cracking down on these illegal weed shops and not going
Speaker 9: to give them permits because they weren't going about it
Speaker 9: the legal way. But now the New York Times is saying, hey,
Speaker 9: this shop is starting to do it. The State Office
Speaker 9: of Cannibismanagement there is such a thing. It said that
Speaker 9: it's investigating weather the owners because they applied for it
Speaker 9: under a different name, so that might be an issue
Speaker 9: and that's why they may have gotten up there.
Speaker 8: But it's still under review.
Speaker 6: But this is just a big issue of us. This
Speaker 6: up terribly.
Speaker 5: Every single block has the legal wee chap. People are
Speaker 5: and where's the tax revenue. I mean, you talk to
Speaker 5: people in the cannabis industry and they say, New York
Speaker 5: City is the absolute worst execution of this law you've
Speaker 5: seen anywhere.
Speaker 2: My basic take is it's Boulder, Colorado, spring of nineteen
Speaker 2: seventy one, and the music isn't as good, and you
Speaker 2: know it's out of control. I mean that's what I
Speaker 2: hear from particularly downtown here.
Speaker 6: That's not a millitary and he's my go to guy.
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, this is a problem. When he's in one
Speaker 3: of the suburbs north of the city. It's a big problem.
Speaker 6: Exactly.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 6: So anyway, all right.
Speaker 8: Well next, all right, what's also out of control? Tipping?
Speaker 8: Tip flation? Ok there's a study. It's from Talker Research.
Speaker 8: This is within the New York Post, your favorite Paul.
Speaker 9: Americans spend nearly five hundred a year tipping more than
Speaker 9: they'd like to because they're saying they feel a lot
Speaker 9: of pressure.
Speaker 8: You know, you're at the Starbucks or whatever, the Barisa.
Speaker 9: Turns a little you know, tablet around and they're staring
Speaker 9: at you as you pick ten percent.
Speaker 8: Or nothing.
Speaker 6: You know, it's dying now.
Speaker 5: This is one of my New Year's resolutions, just starting today. Okay,
Speaker 5: if I didn't do it five years ago, I'm not
Speaker 5: doing it today. That's one of the points. Yeah, because
Speaker 5: I'm a good tipper. You ask any of the folks
Speaker 5: down the Jersey Shore saloons. They know I'm a good tipper,
Speaker 5: but I'm no tucker on the other helm.
Speaker 6: Yeah, exactly exactly. But that's the problem.
Speaker 8: People are saying, they're tipping now for things that they
Speaker 8: never tipped before.
Speaker 6: Yeah, there's a good I thought so good stairs. Look
Speaker 6: a good thing on social media saw yesterday was somebody
Speaker 6: was going through TSA.
Speaker 5: They were going through the the person was going through
Speaker 5: their TSA take and then afterwards they put their phone
Speaker 5: next to them the tip.
Speaker 3: You know, so are you done or you have one
Speaker 3: more jewel?
Speaker 7: No?
Speaker 9: Okay, your coffee, your latte could be getting more expensive.
Speaker 9: Here's the reason why there's a crowd in Vietnam. Yes,
Speaker 9: hurting coffee being production. We're talking about robust.
Speaker 8: The reachers hit a sixteen year high on Wednesday.
Speaker 9: Here's the is that I thought was interesting. Hoarding Vietnamese farmers.
Speaker 9: They're holding onto the beans. They're holding onto as much
Speaker 9: as thirteen percent of this year's harvest. They're hoping to
Speaker 9: sell them for higher prices. So that's becoming the issue there.
Speaker 9: So experts saying, you know, it could take a while
Speaker 9: before it reaches consumers.
Speaker 8: So your mocha is safe for now, but it could
Speaker 8: start to tick up.
Speaker 5: Tom, we have a ticker on that on the Bloomberg
Speaker 5: Terminal CC and four space commodity COCO futures. Again, it's
Speaker 5: just been this chart has gone up into the right
Speaker 5: like crazy spike in cocoa prices.
Speaker 6: Go figure. I mean, that's commodity inflation that hits your
Speaker 6: pocket book.
Speaker 2: Lisa, thank you so much, greatly, greatly, greatly appreciate it.
Speaker 2: This morning tipping thing is a huge deal because you know,
Speaker 2: in Paris it's totally different where.
Speaker 3: They get a huge wage and here they don't.
Speaker 2: Right right in London is really messed up where there's
Speaker 2: no tipping. London's the worst.
Speaker 8: So you don't tip in London.
Speaker 2: You don't call London, you cannot if you don't leave cash.
Speaker 2: They don't get tipped.
Speaker 3: Terrible. It's a complete scam in London, very.
Speaker 6: Part of the culture.
Speaker 8: I mean, you know, but they get paid more than.
Speaker 2: They do, get paid more, but you can't add a
Speaker 2: tip off your card.
Speaker 6: You don't need to get that option.
Speaker 2: I sat down with the reto keeper of the MX
Speaker 2: and you know, we spent an hour on this. That's
Speaker 2: a joke, Lisa, that was brilliant, very valuable. Actually, this
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