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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along

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Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from

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Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and always I'm Bloomberg Radio,

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. DOTTA was

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Speaker 2: in the tantrum, going to hang up if I didn't

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Speaker 2: ask about the real wage.

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Speaker 3: Let's go there with a guy who predicted this.

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Speaker 2: He was just outstanding of saying the negative gloom of

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Speaker 2: negative real wages would flip to a positive real wage

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Speaker 2: Neil Dota Renaissance Macro. Can you model positive real wages

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Speaker 2: into the end of the year.

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Speaker 4: You know, I think that's probable, but I think that's

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Speaker 4: largely because inflation is going to be slowing, not because

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Speaker 4: not because you know, nominal wage growth is going to accelerate,

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Speaker 4: so you know, I think it's uh. I think that

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Speaker 4: compositional story is important. You know, my optimism around real

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Speaker 4: wage is improving is largely because I'm more confident, I think,

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Speaker 4: relative to consensus, that inflation is cooling throughout the remainder

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Speaker 4: of the year. If you look at what we've seen

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Speaker 4: over the first quarter. Obviously it was a very strong

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Speaker 4: quarter for inflation, as we all know and believe it

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Speaker 4: or not, real wages didn't actually go up all that much,

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Speaker 4: if at all, in Q one. So I think we

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Speaker 4: have to be careful here about kind of tying the

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Speaker 4: firm inflament because right now, Tom, it feels like to

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Speaker 4: me that people look at the or the consensus looks

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Speaker 4: at the strong and inflation numbers in the first quarter

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Speaker 4: as reinforcing kind of like this inflationary boom like dynamic

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Speaker 4: in the US economy. But I think when you take

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Speaker 4: a step back with you know, we do know that

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Speaker 4: wage growth has been moderating. Most of the forward looking

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Speaker 4: indicators that we look at, you know, things like the

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Speaker 4: quits rate posted wages suggests further cooling in in nominal

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Speaker 4: compensation growth. If you have this sort of inflation continuing,

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Speaker 4: you do need to start worrying a little bit about

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Speaker 4: what that means for real wages and in turn what

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Speaker 4: that means for consumer spending and corporate earnings. So you know,

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Speaker 4: I mean, fortunately, I tend to think that inflation will slow,

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Speaker 4: but I don't necessarily look at, you know, the inflation

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Speaker 4: data in the first quarter as kind of reinforcing the

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Speaker 4: stronger growth outlet. I actually think it presents a risk

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Speaker 4: if it continues.

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Speaker 5: All right, So you know, we've had a busy economic

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Speaker 5: release schedule over the last twenty four hours with Q

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Speaker 5: one GDP and then today's inflation. Can you wrap it

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Speaker 5: all up for us in And how do you think

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Speaker 5: the Fed is going to look at the last twenty

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Speaker 5: four hours worth of data.

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Speaker 4: I think they'll look at it and say, we have

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Speaker 4: nothing to do right now. This sort of reinforces their

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Speaker 4: belief that they have the benefit of time at the

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Speaker 4: end of the day. I mean, you know, we have

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Speaker 4: strong jobs growth and firm inflation. That's not a reason

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Speaker 4: for them to cut rates at the moment.

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Speaker 5: So all right, so let's kind of look ahead a

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Speaker 5: little bit here. I mean, what is the inflation I mean,

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Speaker 5: you think inflation is going to kind of moderate here

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Speaker 5: in the back half of the year.

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Speaker 6: If so, where will it moderate? Where will we see it?

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Speaker 4: Well, I mean, ultimately I think it starts from the

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Speaker 4: labor market on out. Okay, right, And you know, I

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Speaker 4: think this sort of bottoms up approach is interesting, and

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Speaker 4: certainly that's how people kind of nail the first quarter

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Speaker 4: inflation data. But ultimately I think you have to stick

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Speaker 4: to first principles. And what I rely on is basically

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Speaker 4: a standard triangle model of inflation. You have embedded inflation

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Speaker 4: or sort of an inflation expectations. You have a proxy

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Speaker 4: for aggregate demand like the unemployment gap, and then you

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Speaker 4: have some kind of cost push measure, right like exchange rates,

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Speaker 4: import prices, something like that. So that's the standard triangle

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Speaker 4: model of inflation that my former boss, Ethan Harris taught

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Speaker 4: me about many many years.

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Speaker 2: Ago in my mid Okay, here's let me lay out

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Speaker 2: the next twenty minutes. Cam Dawson's waiting, she's having a tantrum.

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Speaker 2: She's not on yet. I mean, we'll get cam Dawson

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Speaker 2: out on the market's futures of forty two. It's a

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Speaker 2: cam Dawson market, but we're doing Neil Dotta. Yes, we'll

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Speaker 2: get to the New York Giants. But first Neil Dotta.

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Speaker 2: Right where I wanted to go was Ethan Harris.

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Speaker 3: Neil Dotta.

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Speaker 2: Doctor Harris wrote a blistering LinkedIn article yesterday saying, would

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Speaker 2: everybody wake up, calm down, and look at trim mean

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Speaker 2: inflation statistics? Which is your favorite? Ethan Harris? A gusted inflation,

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Speaker 2: Dallas Fed Cleveland this whichever? Which is Neil Dutta's favorite

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Speaker 2: inflation statistic?

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Speaker 4: Well, I mean, Ethan has been harping a lot on

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Speaker 4: the trim mean inflation. I mean my pushback to that

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Speaker 4: is that there's historically been a much higher I mean,

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Speaker 4: there's an upward bias and a lot of these trim

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Speaker 4: mean measures, trim mean median PC, they tend to run

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Speaker 4: a lot higher than traditional core measures of inflation. If

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Speaker 4: you go back to two thousand and eight as an example,

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Speaker 4: trim mean inflation was running a lot hotter than traditional

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Speaker 4: core and we I mean, could you imagine what would

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Speaker 4: have happened if the FED was paying more attention to

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Speaker 4: trim mean back then? You know, at any rate, I mean,

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Speaker 4: what I meant to say with the triangle model is

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Speaker 4: that if you go through these components, I mean inflation expectations.

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Speaker 4: After coming down last year, they've kind of stabilized this year.

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Speaker 4: Unit labor costs are slowing, right, I mean, and the

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Speaker 4: dollar is stronger. So when you talk about slowing unit

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Speaker 4: labor cost growth and firming dollar, where should we be

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Speaker 4: about an upside inflation scenario? So I think you have

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Speaker 4: to kind of stick with first principles. And you know,

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Speaker 4: that's why I think we should the consensus should at

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Speaker 4: least be open to the prospect of downside inflation surprises

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Speaker 4: over the coming months on a magnitude of the upside

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Speaker 4: surprises we got in Q one.

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Speaker 2: Noah one question, the Giants go with a twenty year

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Speaker 2: old kid from LSU. I think he walks into camp

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Speaker 2: twenty one years old? Are these kids too young when

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Speaker 2: they come to the NFL?

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Speaker 3: Now?

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Speaker 4: I mean, who am I to say that? I mean,

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Speaker 4: I mean, they're great athletes. I don't know. I just

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Speaker 4: hope that. Yeah, he helps the Giants offense spread out

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Speaker 4: a little.

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Speaker 3: Bit neighbors LSU. Yeah, it's fun.

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Speaker 2: They went with the fun. Malik, excuse me, they went

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Speaker 2: with the fun. You know, they didn't go to the

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Speaker 2: boring for or you know, defensive guard or whatever. They

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Speaker 2: went with something that's going to create some massive energy

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Speaker 2: Malik neighbors.

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Speaker 3: There were the New York giants.

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Speaker 2: Cameron Dausin joins Now Chief investment Officer, New Edge Wealth Management, Cameron.

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Speaker 2: The tech earnings have come in, I guess we've seen

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Speaker 2: a good hunk. How is revenue growth doing? Are we

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Speaker 2: seeing better than good revenue growth in this earning season?

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Speaker 1: It's still healthy. There has been a moderation, mostly in

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Speaker 1: some of the consumer names, just because inflation has moderated,

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Speaker 1: meaning that you don't have as much pricing power as

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Speaker 1: you've had over the last couple of years. But I

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Speaker 1: think the real story is not just on the revenue line,

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Speaker 1: but it's on the margin line. And how much operating

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Speaker 1: leverage these tech companies are getting is absolutely incredible. A

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Speaker 1: little bit of cost control and profits absolutely boom. I

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Speaker 1: think you then add on top of that that all

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Speaker 1: of these large cap names are sitting on massive cash piles.

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Speaker 1: That the longer that the FED keeps rates high, the

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Speaker 1: more that they get to keep earning big yield on

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Speaker 1: those cash piles, which just allows them to do things

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Speaker 1: like start dividends and increase buybacks. So clearly for the

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Speaker 1: large cap names, there's a very virtuous cycle.

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Speaker 2: Sounds like Kim Dawson's sake in the Paul sweety kool

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Speaker 2: aid here.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean the dividends.

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Speaker 5: It's not the worst thing the world to put out

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Speaker 5: a dividend there for your investors. So, Cam, what any

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Speaker 5: takeaways just from earning so far this season? I mean, again,

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Speaker 5: we're seeing some pretty strong numbers out of the tech names,

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Speaker 5: and a lot of folks will say tech has to

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Speaker 5: leave this market, so maybe we're in good shape.

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Speaker 6: What do you seeing?

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Speaker 1: It is encouraging that tech has held up well. We

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Speaker 1: think the real tech test for tech will really come

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Speaker 1: in the later part of the year and into twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five, because that's when forecasts are for tech earnings

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Speaker 1: growth to accelerate rather meaningfully and then for the rest

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Speaker 1: of the market to kind of take up the earnings

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Speaker 1: growth and really be the key driver. So if that happens,

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Speaker 1: and it will be something that is very a very

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Speaker 1: high bar for the rest of the market to jump over.

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Speaker 1: For now, tech is very strong and at thirty percent

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Speaker 1: of the index for the S and P five hundred,

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Speaker 1: that remains ultimately the most important sector.

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Speaker 5: So I mean then that kind of goes to the

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Speaker 5: issue Kim, that a lot of investors I think wrestle

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Speaker 5: with which is do I overweight Do I stay overweight

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Speaker 5: some of these tech names, or do I try to

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Speaker 5: find some value in other parts of the market, whether

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Speaker 5: that's financials or healthcare or energy.

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Speaker 6: How do you think about that at this stage?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that's the real push pull because tech

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Speaker 1: has the earnings growth and the stock momentum, but it's

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Speaker 1: extraordinarily crowded. If you look at sector flows, tech is

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Speaker 1: the only sector that has had meaningful influence at seventy

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Speaker 1: billion dollars using the Deutsche Bank data. And it's also

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Speaker 1: really expensive. But on the other hand, if you look

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Speaker 1: at the value sectors, they're underloved, under owned, very cheap

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Speaker 1: in some areas. However, they don't have that earnings momentum. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: they have seeing their stock prices pick up, which is encouraging.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I have a toothpaste. Come, I'm going to name

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Speaker 2: which one it is. With Kim, you go to the

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Speaker 2: heart of the matter, which is ill look at the

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Speaker 2: FA screen of a traditional, boring, wonderful, all American value company.

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Speaker 2: They don't have the revenue pop. Can you predict the

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Speaker 2: next twenty four months, Alawood Zuckerberg wrought that we're going

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Speaker 2: to see a new rationalization of Jack Welch like cost

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Speaker 2: cutting across all sectors.

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Speaker 1: I used to cover gees. So I'm not necessarily going

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Speaker 1: to laud the era of the Welch time and kind

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Speaker 1: of the aftermath of that, because cost cutting, you can't

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Speaker 1: cut your way to growth. I think the reality is

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Speaker 1: and this is how we always focus our investments, which

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Speaker 1: is once on high return on invested capital. So we

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Speaker 1: want to focus on companies that for every dollar that

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Speaker 1: they put into their business, they get more dollars out

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Speaker 1: than the average bear. And so what that leads to

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Speaker 1: is that you do find a lot of that within

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Speaker 1: tech names, but there are also places within the industrials

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Speaker 1: within even some give.

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Speaker 2: Me an example, Come on, give me, it's not an

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Speaker 2: average bar, it's an average Ninja turtle. Give give me

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Speaker 2: an example, Cam Dawson of a value company doing our

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Speaker 2: return on ROIC, doing ROIC in a nice way.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. So some of the names within the industrials that

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Speaker 1: we do like are in the services side of things.

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Speaker 1: I can't give you any specific names, I'm sorry, and

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Speaker 1: I don't even have any turtles with me today. But

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Speaker 1: if you look at some of the services names that

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Speaker 1: mask as industrials, they do a lot of things like

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Speaker 1: insurance data and that type thing. They're really good in

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Speaker 1: defensive or copy markets and don't have that same kind

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Speaker 1: of sensitivity to underlying GDP where you have to see

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Speaker 1: an absolutely booming economy just for them to make a

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Speaker 1: little bit of money.

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Speaker 5: So I guess let's just take a look at this

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Speaker 5: economic data we saw in the last twenty four hours. Cam,

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Speaker 5: what's your takeaway here as it relates to maybe how

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Speaker 5: the Federal Reserve will kind of act over the next

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Speaker 5: several months, And you learned anything over the last twenty

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Speaker 5: four hours as it relates to our GDP our inflation picture.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's ditto to what data said, which

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Speaker 1: is that this data doesn't necessarily mean that the Fed

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Speaker 1: has to do anything at this time. We think that

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Speaker 1: the bar for rate hikes from here is much much

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Speaker 1: higher than the bar for rate cuts. It just means

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Speaker 1: that it won't take a lot of eating and economic

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Speaker 1: data for the Fed to start putting that cut talk

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Speaker 1: back on the table where you'd have to see a

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Speaker 1: significant acceleration and inflation for the FED to start raising

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Speaker 1: rates further. But we do think that the FED is

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Speaker 1: going to keep rates as they are for some time

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Speaker 1: because today simply doesn't support any urgency for them to

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Speaker 1: start cutting.

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Speaker 2: One quick question that we got to go to another

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Speaker 2: area with you, Kim Dawson, what's your SPX call twelve

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Speaker 2: months forward?

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Speaker 1: We think that the returns are going to be closer

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Speaker 1: to average given this starting point and what averages high

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Speaker 1: single digits, And this starting point is one where you

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Speaker 1: have allocations to equities that are not at peak levels

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Speaker 1: but are extended, valuations that aren't at peak levels but

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Speaker 1: are extended, which just supports that that kind of double

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Speaker 1: digit better than average returns that we've had in different

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Speaker 1: years is going to be quite hard to achieve.

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Speaker 2: Like most people, that really kill its strategy. It started

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Speaker 2: out with the individual security analysis. Kim Dawson, we got

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Speaker 2: a I still don't get ge Aerospace out of Cincinnati,

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Speaker 2: that's on American. But Kim Dawson, Lawrence Culp shows up

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Speaker 2: and he's.

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Speaker 3: He he's a Danaer and all that he's popped. Are

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Speaker 3: you ready? Cam?

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Speaker 2: Nineteen point three percent per year since he walked in

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Speaker 2: the door. What the what Lawrence called the pieces he

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Speaker 2: picked up.

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Speaker 3: It's really something.

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Speaker 1: What he's done Lean manufacturing is a beautiful thing. It's fantastic.

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Speaker 1: The ability to be able to take costs out of

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Speaker 1: a business without cutting to the bone and really focus

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Speaker 1: sing on the kinds of businesses that can generate a

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Speaker 1: great deal of upside. We've seen that with some companies

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Speaker 1: like an idex or an ITW that use the eighty

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Speaker 1: twenty approach. And the thing about those kinds of names

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Speaker 1: is that it's again it gets you back to those

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Speaker 1: high return on investing capital. Find companies that for every

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Speaker 1: dollar that they put into their business, they get a

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Speaker 1: greater farm.

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Speaker 3: Kim Dawson, thank you so much for the New Edge.

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Speaker 3: Really love it. That was really, really excellent.

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Speaker 2: I got like a three hour conversation here right now

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Speaker 2: with Mande singing Paul's.

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Speaker 3: Got to do a victory lap here on the dividend.

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Speaker 2: Mandy, Finally, I mean, I don't even know what with

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Speaker 2: the puny dividend they're doing with the dividend payout ratio is,

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Speaker 2: But are finally the tech boys going to grow up

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Speaker 2: and give us a dividend and critically give us a

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Speaker 2: dividend growth that somewhat correlates with their revenue growth.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 7: And look, I think Google and Amazon wards at two

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Speaker 7: out of the mag sakes that didn't do the two children. Yes,

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Speaker 7: so it puts pressure on Amazon now to good point.

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Speaker 2: H And they're like, let means off a cliff, Paul,

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Speaker 2: You've been through this. I mean, Apple's got a one

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Speaker 2: up them and you know, do a one hundred billion

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Speaker 2: share buyback.

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Speaker 5: Right, So I mean I'm looking at good at Google

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Speaker 5: slash Facebook, you know, eighty billion dollars in free cash

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Speaker 5: flow seventy billion they announced.

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Speaker 6: This, this buyback, So that's huge.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, talk to us about the quarter that What did

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Speaker 5: you see in the operations the quarter?

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Speaker 6: What stood out for you? Because the market really likes

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Speaker 6: what it saw.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 7: I mean, look, everyone thought their search business is getting disrupted.

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Speaker 7: They will, you know, slow down in terms of growth rates.

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Speaker 7: They come out and really blow it out of the

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Speaker 7: park on the search profitability. I mean that was the

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Speaker 7: driver of why the operating margin was thirty two percent

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Speaker 7: all time high.

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Speaker 3: Wow.

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Speaker 7: And that just goes to show how much pricing power

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Speaker 7: this company has. They can raise the ad auction prices

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Speaker 7: without telling advertisers and everyone will pay for it because

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Speaker 7: that's how their ROI is on AdSpend. So clearly, you

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Speaker 7: know they're flexing their muscle when it comes to ad

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Speaker 7: pricing and YouTube and cloud being one hundred billion dollars

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Speaker 7: underd business combined growing at over twenty five percent.

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Speaker 6: That's the same. That's Tom. That's Tom.

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Speaker 5: He's been calling out YouTube for a while here, I'm

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Speaker 5: not sure the street.

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Speaker 6: Do you think the street fully appreciates it?

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Speaker 3: Oh, they do not iorialize you.

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Speaker 6: I mean, can can I spin that out?

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Speaker 7: There was a dislocation in the valuation that Google had

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Speaker 7: versus relative to Microsoft, Microsoft trading at thirty three times

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Speaker 7: pee versus Google at twenty three y okay.

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Speaker 3: The basic idea here is Apple peels off services. Dan

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Speaker 3: I says, no, they'll never do it. I don't know

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Speaker 3: what that's worth.

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Speaker 2: But Google could peel off or be forced to peel

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Speaker 2: off YouTube.

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Speaker 3: And it's ginormous. Is that the right you know, CFA term? Yeah?

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Speaker 7: I mean their YouTube ad revenue grew twenty one percent.

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Speaker 7: The subscription revenue is also north of twenty percent.

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Speaker 3: So that's because of.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg surveillance out on YouTube search, Bloomberg podcast continue.

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Speaker 7: And engagement is off the roof So I agree. I

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Speaker 7: think YouTube itself could be a trillion dollar in market

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Speaker 7: cap given its growth rate.

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Speaker 3: So that puts Google you'd model out at what three

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Speaker 3: trillion with.

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Speaker 7: I think so, based on the numbers you saw last night.

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Speaker 3: Are they listening to roofs? Come on for New York City.

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Speaker 3: There's a whole history here, folks.

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Speaker 2: I believe the Morgan Stanley the brain freezes on a Friday.

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Speaker 2: Ruthport's a CFO out there. They finally the owners the CEO.

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Speaker 2: Are they finally listening to Ruth?

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Speaker 3: I think so.

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Speaker 7: I mean she has additional responsibility now, you know, in terms,

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Speaker 7: and they are looking for a new CFO given she

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Speaker 7: has additional responsibility.

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Speaker 3: But I'm going to give Paul Sweeney a massive victory

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Speaker 3: lap on this one. So I'm going to put it

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Speaker 3: up again. I just put it out on.

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Speaker 2: Social This is the new world, This is the Sweeney world.

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Speaker 2: Daniel Parris, pay a dividend. You don't have to be

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Speaker 2: like Totel Europe or BNP Paridius.

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Speaker 6: I pay something, so Mandy.

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Speaker 5: But I still view AI as a threat to the

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Speaker 5: core search business of Google.

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Speaker 6: Is that a valid concern? Do you think?

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Speaker 7: I mean, look, I could say the same about the

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Speaker 7: cloud business for Microsoft. Yes, there is more competition, but

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Speaker 7: in search they are the incumbent player. And what they're

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Speaker 7: showing right now is they can integrate their generative AI

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Speaker 7: stuff with their cloud, with their search and that actually

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Speaker 7: is helping the business the pricing power of the business.

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Speaker 2: Take what you learned here, I mean, from Texas Instruments

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Speaker 2: over to Meta, Facebook, over to the two yesterday, bring

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Speaker 2: it over to Apple.

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Speaker 3: I believe it's on Tuesday.

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Speaker 7: Well, so Apple, I think has a different problem when

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Speaker 7: it comes to the China side of the business. The

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Speaker 7: twenty percent revenue exposure, you can't do anything about that.

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Speaker 7: Handseid revenue exposure they have, and the services side of

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Speaker 7: the business is not going to look as good as

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Speaker 7: you know.

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Speaker 3: Microsoft and Google does a threat in their margins.

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Speaker 7: It does. I mean, look, they have been in the

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Speaker 7: antitrust crosshairs, even though you know not much will happen

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Speaker 7: in the near term, but the fact that they can't

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Speaker 7: you know, keep their take rates at thirty percent they

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Speaker 7: used to have in the app store, that's gonna hurt

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Speaker 7: the business. And they can't roll out new genei services

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Speaker 7: because they don't have the infrastructure. I mean, all these

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Speaker 7: companies are raising capex thirty forty fifty percent. Apple doesn't

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Speaker 7: spend as much on their data centers and and that's

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Speaker 7: where I think they will be sort of there behind

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Speaker 7: and and it will be very hard for them to

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Speaker 7: catch up in terms of, you know, the generative AI stuff,

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Speaker 7: which is what the growth part of the.

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Speaker 3: Business, the generative AI, Well, that's it. Don't get well,

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Speaker 3: that's my question.

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Speaker 5: I think they kind of do. So I was looking

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Speaker 5: forward to this May seventh. I guess their their pig

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Speaker 5: event coming up.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, what are we going to do? Are they going

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Speaker 6: to have a I guess transformative announcement?

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Speaker 7: Do you think they will innovate with their chips? The

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Speaker 7: biggest advantage that Apple has is it controls it's chips

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Speaker 7: in their devices, and that's where the on device generative

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Speaker 7: AI play is still there. No one else can take

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Speaker 7: the distribution away from them. They control the distribution, and

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Speaker 7: if they're able to show something like that, that will

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Speaker 7: drive a heavy refreshed cycle. But in the end, this

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Speaker 7: company is still driven by iPhone refreshes and iMac refreshes

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Speaker 7: and all those Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I had of fans stop me in the street. And

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Speaker 2: they said, is it true that Mandeep and interrog can't

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Speaker 2: be in the same building at the same time?

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Speaker 3: Is that true? Like, can you ever ever.

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Speaker 2: Talked to each You can get along very but you

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Speaker 2: have you can't be in the same building at the

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Speaker 2: same time.

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Speaker 6: No, it's kind of like key Man risk. You can't

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Speaker 6: do it for technology, you tell you.

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Speaker 3: Look at the front pages, Lisa, what do you have?

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Speaker 8: All Right?

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Speaker 9: College students, this is in the times, are becoming reservation scalpers.

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Speaker 8: It's a new side hustle that they're the thought of.

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Speaker 9: Because you know, in New York City people are always

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Speaker 9: wanting to get reservations to these high end restaurants you

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Speaker 9: can't get in. So what these students are doing is

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Speaker 9: they're making reservations. They're posting them on this platform, card

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Speaker 9: Appointment Trader, that's a platform while people bid on reservations.

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Speaker 8: So they're booking these reservations.

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Speaker 9: There's one college student in Rhode Island who booked who

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Speaker 9: booked a reservation for a French restaurant in Soho. He

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Speaker 9: made eight hundred and fifty five dollars just from someone

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Speaker 9: who wanted to get in there. He made one thousand

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Speaker 9: dollars from a reservation.

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Speaker 8: At Carbone because someone wanted to get in there. He

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Speaker 8: said he made seventy thousand dollars. You're on this side, hustle.

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Speaker 8: New Yorkers don't like it.

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Speaker 9: They say it's ruining the restaurant industry because you know,

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Speaker 9: we're New Yorkers. We want to get into different, you

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Speaker 9: know places, and we can't because these kids are buying

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Speaker 9: up all the reservations.

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Speaker 8: They're not even going, they're just making money off to

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Speaker 8: the day's meekings.

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Speaker 6: Walk in and slide the person at the counter at

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Speaker 6: twenty bucks and say, you know, just come on exactly.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you know. They go, oh my god, it's you.

443
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:59,240
Speaker 3: You know, I'm flattered. And you go up the stairs

444
00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:02,600
Speaker 3: to the back bar in the bag and you sit

445
00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:05,040
Speaker 3: on a little chair and your children are like, this

446
00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:07,840
Speaker 3: is so cool. And there's the bar right there with

447
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:08,399
Speaker 3: the mirror.

448
00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:11,000
Speaker 2: Okay, and you don't, you know, you give them fifty

449
00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 2: bucks or whatever, and now it's eight hundred dollars.

450
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:18,360
Speaker 8: Sometimes a thousand. Justin Bieber I didn't even get into Carbone.

451
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:20,800
Speaker 3: It's just ridiculous.

452
00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 9: So yeah, and the restaurants don't like it because if

453
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:26,400
Speaker 9: those reservations aren't sold. Then they're stuck with empty tables,

454
00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:29,000
Speaker 9: and that's when it just is out that way.

455
00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, I've not been there, so I'll defer to time

456
00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:35,440
Speaker 5: restaurant Scalpers Smith last night, Oh, strip top.

457
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,080
Speaker 3: Oh we're sitting over on Third Avenue.

458
00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:39,240
Speaker 6: Fantastic pack.

459
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:40,480
Speaker 3: You are so old school.

460
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:42,680
Speaker 5: We had This is my investment banking team from nineteen

461
00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:44,920
Speaker 5: eighty six where we still get together.

462
00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:48,240
Speaker 3: My god, they let you bring in the drips in

463
00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:48,800
Speaker 3: the cath.

464
00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:52,680
Speaker 8: Exactly did you have to pay for that reservation?

465
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:57,800
Speaker 2: Or we know some peoplets after thought, I had a birthday.

466
00:22:58,320 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 3: Where do you want to go? She goes to Mermaid.

467
00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:02,520
Speaker 3: So there's a new Mermaid down in Soho. It's the

468
00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:04,560
Speaker 3: first time I've been below fifty ninth.

469
00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:05,879
Speaker 6: Stround Like, why would gets?

470
00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:07,000
Speaker 2: You know?

471
00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:07,560
Speaker 6: Nice?

472
00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:09,679
Speaker 3: I texted Pharaoh, I said, come on over, I'm at

473
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:10,240
Speaker 3: the Mermaid.

474
00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:13,320
Speaker 6: He was in Capri or something, of course exactly, but.

475
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:14,560
Speaker 8: What are you have pressed your off?

476
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 9: Another thing in New Yorkers that they always talk about,

477
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 9: you know, it's congestion pricing. This one is the illegal

478
00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 9: weed shops. That's another issue in New York City. I've

479
00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 9: heard this this out, Yeah, that one of the this

480
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:28,200
Speaker 9: is from the New York Times. An illegal shopping queens

481
00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:31,680
Speaker 9: that's called Badega just received a permit. And this is

482
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:33,800
Speaker 9: kind of a backtrack because New York said they were

483
00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:37,120
Speaker 9: cracking down on these illegal weed shops and not going

484
00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:39,040
Speaker 9: to give them permits because they weren't going about it

485
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:42,040
Speaker 9: the legal way. But now the New York Times is saying, hey,

486
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:44,560
Speaker 9: this shop is starting to do it. The State Office

487
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:47,200
Speaker 9: of Cannibismanagement there is such a thing. It said that

488
00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:50,080
Speaker 9: it's investigating weather the owners because they applied for it

489
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 9: under a different name, so that might be an issue

490
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 9: and that's why they may have gotten up there.

491
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:56,960
Speaker 8: But it's still under review.

492
00:23:57,480 --> 00:24:00,240
Speaker 6: But this is just a big issue of us. This

493
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:00,879
Speaker 6: up terribly.

494
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:04,399
Speaker 5: Every single block has the legal wee chap. People are

495
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:08,200
Speaker 5: and where's the tax revenue. I mean, you talk to

496
00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:10,480
Speaker 5: people in the cannabis industry and they say, New York

497
00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:14,560
Speaker 5: City is the absolute worst execution of this law you've

498
00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:15,240
Speaker 5: seen anywhere.

499
00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:19,280
Speaker 2: My basic take is it's Boulder, Colorado, spring of nineteen

500
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:22,480
Speaker 2: seventy one, and the music isn't as good, and you

501
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:24,879
Speaker 2: know it's out of control. I mean that's what I

502
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 2: hear from particularly downtown here.

503
00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 6: That's not a millitary and he's my go to guy.

504
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:32,439
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, this is a problem. When he's in one

505
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 3: of the suburbs north of the city. It's a big problem.

506
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:35,159
Speaker 6: Exactly.

507
00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:35,480
Speaker 3: Yeah.

508
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:36,680
Speaker 6: So anyway, all right.

509
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:39,560
Speaker 8: Well next, all right, what's also out of control? Tipping?

510
00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:43,719
Speaker 8: Tip flation? Ok there's a study. It's from Talker Research.

511
00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:45,720
Speaker 8: This is within the New York Post, your favorite Paul.

512
00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:49,479
Speaker 9: Americans spend nearly five hundred a year tipping more than

513
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:51,479
Speaker 9: they'd like to because they're saying they feel a lot

514
00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 9: of pressure.

515
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:55,879
Speaker 8: You know, you're at the Starbucks or whatever, the Barisa.

516
00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 9: Turns a little you know, tablet around and they're staring

517
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:00,200
Speaker 9: at you as you pick ten percent.

518
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:02,040
Speaker 8: Or nothing.

519
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:03,440
Speaker 6: You know, it's dying now.

520
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 5: This is one of my New Year's resolutions, just starting today. Okay,

521
00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:08,920
Speaker 5: if I didn't do it five years ago, I'm not

522
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:11,520
Speaker 5: doing it today. That's one of the points. Yeah, because

523
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:13,400
Speaker 5: I'm a good tipper. You ask any of the folks

524
00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 5: down the Jersey Shore saloons. They know I'm a good tipper,

525
00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:19,080
Speaker 5: but I'm no tucker on the other helm.

526
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:23,560
Speaker 6: Yeah, exactly exactly. But that's the problem.

527
00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:25,439
Speaker 8: People are saying, they're tipping now for things that they

528
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:26,440
Speaker 8: never tipped before.

529
00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:31,120
Speaker 6: Yeah, there's a good I thought so good stairs. Look

530
00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 6: a good thing on social media saw yesterday was somebody

531
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 6: was going through TSA.

532
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:36,800
Speaker 5: They were going through the the person was going through

533
00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 5: their TSA take and then afterwards they put their phone

534
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:42,240
Speaker 5: next to them the tip.

535
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:45,160
Speaker 3: You know, so are you done or you have one

536
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:45,680
Speaker 3: more jewel?

537
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:46,119
Speaker 7: No?

538
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:49,960
Speaker 9: Okay, your coffee, your latte could be getting more expensive.

539
00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:53,120
Speaker 9: Here's the reason why there's a crowd in Vietnam. Yes,

540
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:55,679
Speaker 9: hurting coffee being production. We're talking about robust.

541
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 8: The reachers hit a sixteen year high on Wednesday.

542
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:03,240
Speaker 9: Here's the is that I thought was interesting. Hoarding Vietnamese farmers.

543
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 9: They're holding onto the beans. They're holding onto as much

544
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:08,200
Speaker 9: as thirteen percent of this year's harvest. They're hoping to

545
00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 9: sell them for higher prices. So that's becoming the issue there.

546
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,320
Speaker 9: So experts saying, you know, it could take a while

547
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:15,639
Speaker 9: before it reaches consumers.

548
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 8: So your mocha is safe for now, but it could

549
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 8: start to tick up.

550
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:20,560
Speaker 5: Tom, we have a ticker on that on the Bloomberg

551
00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:25,960
Speaker 5: Terminal CC and four space commodity COCO futures. Again, it's

552
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 5: just been this chart has gone up into the right

553
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:31,240
Speaker 5: like crazy spike in cocoa prices.

554
00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:34,199
Speaker 6: Go figure. I mean, that's commodity inflation that hits your

555
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:34,720
Speaker 6: pocket book.

556
00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:39,879
Speaker 2: Lisa, thank you so much, greatly, greatly, greatly appreciate it.

557
00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:43,760
Speaker 2: This morning tipping thing is a huge deal because you know,

558
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 2: in Paris it's totally different where.

559
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 3: They get a huge wage and here they don't.

560
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 2: Right right in London is really messed up where there's

561
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:53,920
Speaker 2: no tipping. London's the worst.

562
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:54,920
Speaker 8: So you don't tip in London.

563
00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:58,240
Speaker 2: You don't call London, you cannot if you don't leave cash.

564
00:26:58,680 --> 00:26:59,440
Speaker 2: They don't get tipped.

565
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 3: Terrible. It's a complete scam in London, very.

566
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 6: Part of the culture.

567
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:06,280
Speaker 8: I mean, you know, but they get paid more than.

568
00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:09,200
Speaker 2: They do, get paid more, but you can't add a

569
00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:10,800
Speaker 2: tip off your card.

570
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:12,720
Speaker 6: You don't need to get that option.

571
00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 2: I sat down with the reto keeper of the MX

572
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:17,360
Speaker 2: and you know, we spent an hour on this. That's

573
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:21,440
Speaker 2: a joke, Lisa, that was brilliant, very valuable. Actually, this

574
00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:26,760
Speaker 2: is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment,

575
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 2: and international relations. You can also watch the show live

576
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:35,080
Speaker 2: on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube. To

577
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 2: see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am

578
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:42,720
Speaker 2: Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe

579
00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:46,480
Speaker 2: to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen,

580
00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:50,440
Speaker 2: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the

581
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business app.