Speaker 1: Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast.
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on
Speaker 1: Twitter at Dan Harris Ady. Earlier this week we broke
Speaker 1: down some of the over unders for the AFC. Today,
Speaker 1: we're going to tackle the NFC with me to do that.
Speaker 1: As Ian McMillan a writer over at oddshark dot com.
Speaker 1: You can follow him on Twitter at Ian mac os
Speaker 1: that's I a I n mac os Ian. How are you
Speaker 1: holding up with no live sports? If you found anything
Speaker 1: to quench your gambling thirst?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've been bet betting on Madden simulations, to be
Speaker 2: completely honest. Yeah, I mean they're a complete coin toss,
Speaker 2: but at least gives me something if I close my eyes.
Speaker 2: It kind of sounds like it's actual NFL so.
Speaker 1: Sportscasters, but the sportscasters are really good. I feel like
Speaker 1: I'm Madden at least on on Madden twenty. Like, you know,
Speaker 1: I'm not a huge gamer or anything, but they're really
Speaker 1: sound realists. Like the commentary is actually kind of decent. Yeah,
Speaker 1: if you close your eyes, you might think you're in
Speaker 1: a real sporting event.
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, So that's what's getting me through the days
Speaker 2: nowas and.
Speaker 1: If I remember you, like you were sort of the
Speaker 1: master of everything, right, so this must be crazy for you.
Speaker 1: You've never been well you you could write if I
Speaker 1: remember reading some of your stuff, like, I mean, you
Speaker 1: weren't limited to baseball and football. You ran the gamut
Speaker 1: right in terms of what you covered over there.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I did a little bit of everything. So it's uh, yeah,
Speaker 2: tough time for me, man. Yeah, I mean golf hopefully
Speaker 2: sounds like it's going to come back and about two months,
Speaker 2: so that's some light at the end of the tunnel,
Speaker 2: I guess.
Speaker 1: Yeah. And again, you know, the powers that be are
Speaker 1: at least sort of. It seems like everybody understands that
Speaker 1: sports are important, you know, in the grand scheme of things.
Speaker 1: Of course, not given what everybody's dealing with, but overall,
Speaker 1: it's just important for the psyche of the country, right,
Speaker 1: I mean, we you know that this would we'd all
Speaker 1: be able to deal with this a little better if
Speaker 1: there was you know, I have baseball on right now,
Speaker 1: especially when football comes back.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that's what sports are. They're an escape
Speaker 2: for everyone, and now more than ever, we kind of
Speaker 2: need an escape from things. So yeah, yeah, hopefully they
Speaker 2: come back.
Speaker 1: So well, the NFL continues to roll around, roll along
Speaker 1: as we're getting right to the draft, So let's jump
Speaker 1: into some NFC over unders here. As usual, we're going
Speaker 1: to be using the consensus odds over at bettingpros dot com.
Speaker 1: That's the aggregate of the odds that are available at
Speaker 1: the various sportsbooks where you can place the bet and
Speaker 1: you can find those over at bettingpros dot com slash
Speaker 1: NFL dash wins. And if you're interested in the draft,
Speaker 1: I just said it's coming up, you can go to
Speaker 1: betting pros dot com slash Draft dash Props. You can
Speaker 1: get consensus odds on pretty much any possible prop bet
Speaker 1: that you can place on the draft coming up next week,
Speaker 1: and we will be doing an episode next week on
Speaker 1: those draft props, but in the meantime you want to
Speaker 1: check them out, you can go over there bettingpros dot
Speaker 1: com slash Draft hyphen Props. All right, Ian, let's get
Speaker 1: started with the NFC East here. This is a division
Speaker 1: that's kind of broken down into the haves and the
Speaker 1: have nots. You've got two teams on top, with the
Speaker 1: Cowboys and the Eagles, both of which are over under
Speaker 1: nine and a half. And on the other side, you've
Speaker 1: got the Giants with an over under of six and
Speaker 1: the Redskins at an over under of five. Any of
Speaker 1: these do you find enticing either the over or the
Speaker 1: under on any of them?
Speaker 2: I kind of like the Cowboys over, to be completely honest.
Speaker 2: They are actually tied for the second easiest schedule this
Speaker 2: upcoming season, and they so it's at nine and a half.
Speaker 2: It looks like so, I mean, they should have got
Speaker 2: double digit wins last year. They kind of blew it
Speaker 2: late in the year. They still have a very good offense,
Speaker 2: obviously a pretty solid defense, and with that second easiest schedule,
Speaker 2: I mean that that's the one that sticks out to
Speaker 2: me the most to be the over on the Cowboys.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, that's interesting because if there was, you know,
Speaker 1: I don't boy, I hate to admit this, I don't
Speaker 1: love a ton in the NFC. I had a little,
Speaker 1: you know, stronger reaction to Adam Burke and I talked
Speaker 1: about it earlier this week about the AFC, But you know,
Speaker 1: I actually kind of leaned the other way on the Cowboys. Now,
Speaker 1: I will be honest, I'm I'm kind of in the minority.
Speaker 1: You look at the juice that's on it, it's you know,
Speaker 1: minus one twenty one. This is a consensus minus won
Speaker 1: twenty one to the over, even money to the under.
Speaker 1: So they want you to take the under. So you're
Speaker 1: kind of you know, you're where the sharp side of
Speaker 1: it probably is. But I think for me, you know,
Speaker 1: I get it. The offense is, you know, largely intact.
Speaker 1: They resigned Tomari Cooper, they still have Dak Prescott, and
Speaker 1: they gotd of Jason Witten whatever. But Blake Darwin is
Speaker 1: perfectly capable. He'll see an increase from the thirty nine
Speaker 1: percent of snaps you saw last year. They did lose
Speaker 1: Travis Frederick. That's a big loss on their offensive line.
Speaker 1: And again they've been known for their offensive line for
Speaker 1: a couple of years. But I felt like if you
Speaker 1: looked at it last year, it was a little you know,
Speaker 1: it was a little dicier than it had been recently.
Speaker 1: And I think losing Frederick's only going to make that
Speaker 1: a little bit worse. And on the defensive side, look,
Speaker 1: I mean, you lose Byron Jones and you lose Robert Quinn,
Speaker 1: those are pretty big losses. Get that they've you know,
Speaker 1: they've added Don Tari Poe and Gerald McCoy and ha
Speaker 1: Clinton Dixon. They may have the best pass rush in
Speaker 1: the NFC if Alden Smith and Randy Gregory, you know,
Speaker 1: play out how they could. But you know that that's
Speaker 1: still pretty big question marks there. They're not a bad team,
Speaker 1: and their defense definitely should have been better. And you know,
Speaker 1: you do look at their schedule. You mentioned it, Yeah,
Speaker 1: in terms of opponents winning percentage, it's really easy. It's
Speaker 1: right up there, second or third, whatever it is. But
Speaker 1: you know, you look at the way their games break down.
Speaker 1: Seahawks in Seattle, Ravens in Baltimore, Vikings in Minnesota. They've
Speaker 1: got the forty nine Ers, the Steelers, the Browns are
Speaker 1: going to be a lot better than last year. They're rams.
Speaker 1: Teams are going to give them a fight. And I
Speaker 1: don't know whether or not switching you know, to Mike
Speaker 1: McCarthy from Jason Garrett is really going to be enough
Speaker 1: to make them play better than they should have been.
Speaker 1: It just it strikes me as a team that looks
Speaker 1: similar to last year where they should have been better.
Speaker 1: I agree, but you know, they were eight and eight,
Speaker 1: so I could see nine and seven, but over nine
Speaker 1: and a half, it just it strikes me, especially again,
Speaker 1: and I will make it clear getting even money on
Speaker 1: the under is really one of the reasons I liked it.
Speaker 1: If it was if the big wasn't as good, I
Speaker 1: probably wouldn't love it as much. But to me, I
Speaker 1: don't know, man a lot of their games, especially considering
Speaker 1: that you know they've got the tough games on the road,
Speaker 1: Like I can't see them beating the Ravens in Baltimore.
Speaker 1: It's hard to see them beating the Seahawks in Seattle.
Speaker 1: The Vikings maybe, but in Minnesota. It's just it's not something. Again,
Speaker 1: the Steelers are going to be better, the Browns are
Speaker 1: going to be better. So they're winning percentage of their
Speaker 1: opponents I don't know is really indigative. I've talked a lot,
Speaker 1: so you go ahead and make your case there.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I mean those are all fair points. One
Speaker 2: thing that you did bring up that is a really
Speaker 2: good point is the change of head coach. I mean,
Speaker 2: I'm not a Jason Garrett believer whatsoever, so I mean
Speaker 2: when they got rid of him, it would have made
Speaker 2: me think that that they'd be a better team. But
Speaker 2: then hiring Mike McCarthy. I mean, who knows if that
Speaker 2: was the right call in that situation. I mean, Mike
Speaker 2: McCarthy has won a Super Bowl, so it's kind of
Speaker 2: hard to speak too negatively of them.
Speaker 1: Although I will say before you jumped into that further,
Speaker 1: is that last year when the Jets, my team were
Speaker 1: looking for a head coach, I was happy when they
Speaker 1: got Adam Gaze as opposed to Mike McCarthy. Now, that
Speaker 1: just may be my own personal thing, and I'm certainly
Speaker 1: not excited about Adam Gase, but it was more about,
Speaker 1: I guess, probably for me, to be fair, the fact
Speaker 1: that you signed Mike McCarthy. He's probably there for five years,
Speaker 1: regardless of what happens where They can probably get out
Speaker 1: from Adam Gaze, hopefully after this year. But yeah, it depends.
Speaker 1: Maybe he's all in on analytics now, right, you spend
Speaker 1: all that time watching analytics or whatever he said that
Speaker 1: he said to Jerry Jones to get the job. But yeah,
Speaker 1: it's probably not a downgrade at the very least from
Speaker 1: Jason Garrett, who screamed mediocrity.
Speaker 2: Now, I mean, there's another coaching change in the NFC's
Speaker 2: not to get too far off the Cowboys here almost,
Speaker 2: but the Giants obviously bringing in Joe Judge. I mean,
Speaker 2: it's hard to tell with win percentage or with win
Speaker 2: totals how much a head coach is going to have
Speaker 2: an effect on that. But four wins last year for
Speaker 2: the Giants over under six this year? Can they improve
Speaker 2: more than two wins in order to hit the over?
Speaker 2: For the Giants? That's a little bit tough to tell.
Speaker 2: How much is Daniel Jones gonna improve? I mean, obviously
Speaker 2: they have offensive line issues that they need to address.
Speaker 2: If I were to look at another nfcast team, I
Speaker 2: think I would have to go the under in that
Speaker 2: Giants win total of six. I just don't think that
Speaker 2: they've made the improvements enough improvements to improve by more
Speaker 2: than three wins this upcoming season.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this time we're on the same side. That was
Speaker 1: the other one that I was kind of looking at
Speaker 1: that if I had to pick one here, I'd like
Speaker 1: the under on six. Yeah, they just really haven't done
Speaker 1: any I mean, they added James Bradberry, he's good, Blake
Speaker 1: Martinez fine, they kept Leonard Williams around, but they their
Speaker 1: offensive line stinks. They've got no pass rush. I mean
Speaker 1: you know, they they've got what the fourth overall picks,
Speaker 1: so you know, everybody thinks they're gonna take Simmons, you know,
Speaker 1: out of Clemson, and you know you've got Saque healthy
Speaker 1: for a full year, and you've got another year out
Speaker 1: of Jones. But you know, again, their schedule, just like
Speaker 1: the Cowboys, is pretty easy when you look at opponents
Speaker 1: win percentage at least, and you know, they've got the
Speaker 1: Redskins twice. They've got the Bengals in Cincy. They've made,
Speaker 1: you know, the Cardinals an improved team at home. But
Speaker 1: you know, even if you give them all that, they
Speaker 1: still need three more wins. They get the Ravens of Baltimore,
Speaker 1: the Bears in Chicago, the Rams in Los Angeles, the
Speaker 1: Seahawks and Seattle. They've got to play the Bucks, who
Speaker 1: are going to be improved of course with Brady, the Steelers,
Speaker 1: who should be improved with Big Ben there, the Browns,
Speaker 1: which should be improved, the forty nine Ers, you know,
Speaker 1: unless they can split against the Cowboys and the Eagles,
Speaker 1: and the Cowboys and Eagles are both much better teams
Speaker 1: than the Giants, so it's hard to see them getting
Speaker 1: to seven. So with that one I agree with you.
Speaker 1: I don't know. We'll touch on this before we go.
Speaker 1: There's one other coaching change and that's the Redskins. You know,
Speaker 1: who are bringing in Ron Rivera. They're over under is five,
Speaker 1: and man, it is hard when an over under is
Speaker 1: that low to not be like, I mean, just football,
Speaker 1: you know, that's the way football is. You've got these
Speaker 1: teams look like they'll be abysmal, and you get, man,
Speaker 1: how are you going to get more than three wins?
Speaker 1: But I don't know, this was not one that I
Speaker 1: felt good about on either side. Do you want to
Speaker 1: touch the Redskins over under five at all? Or is
Speaker 1: that one that you're just like, nah, that's about right.
Speaker 1: I'm running away.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd run away from that one. And the main
Speaker 2: reason why is just I don't know what Dwayne Haskins
Speaker 2: is going to do. I don't know. Maybe the Redskins
Speaker 2: might even draft a different quarterback in this upcoming draft.
Speaker 2: So right now, with the way things stand, I would
Speaker 2: have to just stay away with the Redskins because just
Speaker 2: way too many question marks. But I do like the
Speaker 2: Redskins coach hiring better than the other two in the
Speaker 2: NFC East though, so that's one positive for the Redskins.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Sure, Ron Rivera is certainly an admired coach. He's
Speaker 1: going to bring you a good just sort of psyche
Speaker 1: to that team. The one thing to think about, by
Speaker 1: the way, when you're looking at all the over unders
Speaker 1: that are coming, especially now we'll talk about it here
Speaker 1: with the NFC East, is that you know, there may
Speaker 1: be short training camps right now with everything that's going on,
Speaker 1: so it might see an effect on implementing any of
Speaker 1: these new systems, which could you know, even if the
Speaker 1: season starts on time, it could make a real difference.
Speaker 1: So it is a little something where again that's probably
Speaker 1: a little bit why I lean the unders on both
Speaker 1: of those that I talked about, the Cowboys and the Giants,
Speaker 1: because I also think that's an added thing that's gonna
Speaker 1: hurt some of these teams that have changed coaches.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a really good point.
Speaker 1: Let's move on here to the NFC North. This one's
Speaker 1: a little more jumbled. You've got both the Packers and
Speaker 1: the Vikings over under of nine, the Bears over under
Speaker 1: of eight, and the Lions over under of six and
Speaker 1: a half. What do you think here any of these
Speaker 1: strike your fancy a little bit.
Speaker 2: I'm to be honest, I'm a little bit surprised that
Speaker 2: the Packers are at nine. If they were at ten,
Speaker 2: I would have taken the under. I think this is
Speaker 2: going to be a year of reckoning for older quarterbacks,
Speaker 2: and that includes Aaron Rodgers, and that includes some other
Speaker 2: quarterbacks are going to touch on here in some other
Speaker 2: divisions in the NFC. The biggest one that probably sticks
Speaker 2: out to me there in the NFC North is the Bears.
Speaker 2: I think they're lucky to be eight and eight last year.
Speaker 2: I don't think Nick Foles is not the answer at
Speaker 2: quarter back, So I would lean the under in the Bears.
Speaker 2: That would probably be my best bet o to that group.
Speaker 2: But a lot of question marks in the NFC North,
Speaker 2: especially at quarterback. Is Kirk Cousin's going to do anything
Speaker 2: for the Vikings this year? I mean, they got rid
Speaker 2: of Stefan Diggs. There's rumors about them getting OBJ. Let's
Speaker 2: see if they get OBJ. I don't think they're going to.
Speaker 2: But probably the biggest one I would lean towards is
Speaker 2: the under and the Bears. I just I they need
Speaker 2: a quarterback. They need a quarterback. They just don't have
Speaker 2: enough offensive weapons, and I don't think Nick Foles is
Speaker 2: the answer there.
Speaker 1: I think the one thing that I feel when I
Speaker 1: look at the teams in this division is that none of
Speaker 1: them has gotten better. Is that possible? Like they all
Speaker 1: just seem worse than they were last year? Right? Am
Speaker 1: I crazy?
Speaker 2: Or is that?
Speaker 1: Is that how you look at them too?
Speaker 2: That's exactly how I looked on Yeah. I mean, obviously
Speaker 2: we still have a little bit of ways to go,
Speaker 2: especially with the draft as well, but to this point
Speaker 2: of the offseason, none of them have improved. They've all
Speaker 2: probably got slightly worse.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, So, I mean you touched on them,
Speaker 1: but I think, you know, if there's one that I
Speaker 1: kind of like here, it's probably the Packers over nine.
Speaker 1: I don't necessarily know if they'll get to ten, but
Speaker 1: I feel pretty confident that they'll get to nine and
Speaker 1: that it would be a push. It almost I think
Speaker 1: they were over under nine last year and I said
Speaker 1: the exact same thing coming in. It's a four win
Speaker 1: drop from last year. And I get that they played,
Speaker 1: you know, they were not they were one of the
Speaker 1: worst thirteen and three teams. Yeah, probably of all time, right,
Speaker 1: even though they made it to the NFC Championship game.
Speaker 1: They were not a thirteen win team. But you know,
Speaker 1: even with the quiet offseason, you know, they lost Brian Blaga,
Speaker 1: you know, Jimmy Graham whatever, and Geronimolson also whatever. They've
Speaker 1: lost some key pieces on defense like Blake Martinez, b J. Goodson,
Speaker 1: Kyler Facrel and their additions have don't really move the needle.
Speaker 1: I mean, they so desperately need a second receiver and
Speaker 1: the idea that Devin Funches is gonna solve all this. Now,
Speaker 1: this is a really deep receiver class for the draft,
Speaker 1: so this could be something that they'll get here. But
Speaker 1: you know, Rick Wagner on the offensive line, Christian Kirksey's
Speaker 1: fine on defense, but they're really not you know, they
Speaker 1: need someone on offense. Whether or not they draft somebody
Speaker 1: or Alan Lazard comes out or Jay Sternberger takes that step,
Speaker 1: they certainly need somebody to step up here. You know,
Speaker 1: they've got a pretty tough overall schedule, but you know,
Speaker 1: they are better. You mentioned that the Bears should be worse.
Speaker 1: I agree with that, the Lions and the Bears, and
Speaker 1: that they get the Panthers, they get the Jaguars, the Falcons.
Speaker 1: I just feel like to get to at least nine wins,
Speaker 1: especially with this division, I think they get there and
Speaker 1: just I don't know, man, Maybe it's the optics of
Speaker 1: seeing a four wind drop. You know, that's a lot.
Speaker 1: That's a lot, you know, And even though they weren't
Speaker 1: that good to me, I just feel like your worst
Speaker 1: case at this point is a push. By the way,
Speaker 1: it's minus one ten on both sides, so it's not
Speaker 1: leaning either way. But I think i'd go with the
Speaker 1: over on the Packers. I agree with you that I'm
Speaker 1: not sitting here being like, whoa boy, They're gonna get
Speaker 1: to ten wins. I feel really good about that, But
Speaker 1: I do think nine is probably I feel very confident
Speaker 1: they can get to nine and at worse push, you
Speaker 1: know what I'm saying.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think nine is probably the right number. Like
Speaker 2: I said, I'm kind of I'm surprised is that big
Speaker 2: of a drop off since they had thirteen wins last year.
Speaker 2: I thought that number would be ten at least, so
Speaker 2: I would have taken the under if it was ten.
Speaker 2: At nine, I think that's the right number. So that's
Speaker 2: kind of a stay away for the Packers For me.
Speaker 1: The only other one in the North that I kind
Speaker 1: of liked, and I you know, again, I feel like
Speaker 1: I'm at the extremes right now. I mean, the numbers
Speaker 1: aren't huge in this division at least. I mean the
Speaker 1: top one is over nine and the bottom one is
Speaker 1: over under six and a half. So it's not a
Speaker 1: huge difference. But I kind of lean under on the Lions.
Speaker 1: There's just been to me, there's been a really bad
Speaker 1: offseason for the Lions. I mean, their defensive line is
Speaker 1: completely decimated. They lost Snax Harrison and Ashaun Robinson, Mike Daniels, Cainnard,
Speaker 1: they lost Arius Sleigh, you know who I get. There
Speaker 1: was a lot of you know a lot of people
Speaker 1: thought that he underperformed last year. He just seemed miserable.
Speaker 1: I really, you know, I think that he's fine and
Speaker 1: he'll be a boon to the Eagles. You know, they
Speaker 1: brought in Desmondryfont, but he is no you know, he's
Speaker 1: not what he once was. They did add darn Harmon
Speaker 1: and from the Pats, but I don't really think that
Speaker 1: their pass defense is going to improve significantly, and it
Speaker 1: wasn't good last year. And then look they signed you know,
Speaker 1: they overpaid for Vyti on their offensive line, but they're
Speaker 1: down Glasgow and Wagner. I mean, they have a really
Speaker 1: high pick. They have some easily winnable games, like the
Speaker 1: Redskins and the Jaguars, maybe the Panthers. But again, you know,
Speaker 1: we've talked about the schedules, and you know, I don't
Speaker 1: want to go crazy with the win percentage because teams change. Obviously.
Speaker 1: You know that. You know, when you're playing the Patriots
Speaker 1: this year, for example, it's different than it would have
Speaker 1: looked when you're playing the Patriots last year. But they've
Speaker 1: got the fifth toughest schedule. I believe they're tied for
Speaker 1: that in opponents win percentage. It's not an easy schedule.
Speaker 1: So as much as I don't love any of the
Speaker 1: other teams in the division, they all to me seem
Speaker 1: like they can pretty well handle the line. So strikes
Speaker 1: me as more of a five or six win team
Speaker 1: as opposed to six and a half. So if I
Speaker 1: was looking at one other bet here, I kind of
Speaker 1: like the under on six and a half the line.
Speaker 1: I don't know how you feel about that one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do. And another point with the Lions, their
Speaker 2: coach Matt Patricia, I don't believe in Matt Patricia. A
Speaker 2: few things have kind of commote this offseason that the
Speaker 2: players don't really like him either. So I think that's
Speaker 2: a recipe for disaster in Detroit this year. I think
Speaker 2: Matt Matt Patricia is not their guy.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I would be surprised if he makes it
Speaker 1: past the season APS in a miraculous turnaround. And again,
Speaker 1: to be as fair as possible, they were not terrible
Speaker 1: with Stafford in there. You know, when Stafford went out,
Speaker 1: they just completely went in the tank. But really, I
Speaker 1: just I don't see it from this team right now,
Speaker 1: and I don't expect you know, I think they're clearly
Speaker 1: going to be the worst team in the division, and
Speaker 1: I think five or six wins is really where I
Speaker 1: could see them top out, unless I'm really misjudging the
Speaker 1: team at this early point. Let's move here to the South,
Speaker 1: where we've got a really kind of interesting division because
Speaker 1: you've got, of course Brady coming in and changing the
Speaker 1: entire dynamic of the Bucks. But you've got the Saints
Speaker 1: leading the way at an over under of ten and
Speaker 1: a half, the Bucks with an over under of nine,
Speaker 1: the Falcons with an over under of seven and a half,
Speaker 1: and the Panthers with an over under of five and
Speaker 1: a half.
Speaker 2: So what do you think here, Well, I mean the
Speaker 2: one that sticks out to me obviously if you remember
Speaker 2: I'm a massive Falcons fan. I mean, I think this
Speaker 2: is too low of a number for the Falcons, and
Speaker 2: even me, I might be a little bit biased. Dan
Speaker 2: Quinn still obviously concerns me a lot. That was some
Speaker 2: of the worst coaching I've ever seen in my life
Speaker 2: the first half of their season, but they finished what
Speaker 2: six and two the last eight games at the end
Speaker 2: of the year, including win over the forty nine Ers,
Speaker 2: who are obviously in the Super Bowl. I mean that
Speaker 2: rosters is too talented for seven and a half, Like
Speaker 2: they just need to go eight to eight and they
Speaker 2: hit the over on that. I mean, in my mind,
Speaker 2: that's that's the biggest lock in all of the NFL
Speaker 2: for over underwin totals. Now, I understand obviously big Falcons fans,
Speaker 2: so a little bit biased there. But as far as
Speaker 2: the other teams in the NFC South, I mentioned when
Speaker 2: talking about the Packers, I think this is gonna be
Speaker 2: a year reckoning four older quarterbacks, and in that group,
Speaker 2: I believe Drew Brees is going to take a big
Speaker 2: step back this year. We saw kind of flashes of
Speaker 2: it last year. He wasn't the Drew Brees that he
Speaker 2: used to be. And same with the Bucks. I mean,
Speaker 2: the Bucks win total, their Super Bowl odds, all their
Speaker 2: futures shot up when they got Tom Brady. I mean
Speaker 2: I don't think I mean Tom Brady. I mean, you
Speaker 2: can't play at a high level that Tom Brady plays
Speaker 2: at forever. I mean, what is he now, forty two
Speaker 2: years old. He didn't look good last year, and I
Speaker 2: don't think he's gonna get better on the Bucks. He
Speaker 2: obviously has a little bit more offensive weapons on the
Speaker 2: Bucks than he did in the Patriots last year. But
Speaker 2: I mean father time at some point is going to
Speaker 2: catch up to Tom Brady, and we saw flashes of
Speaker 2: that last year. So I don't think Tom Brady is
Speaker 2: worth as much as what the odds makers are making
Speaker 2: him worth for the Bucks. So I like the Under
Speaker 2: and the Bucks. I like the Under and the Saints,
Speaker 2: and then the over and the Falcons and then the Panthers.
Speaker 2: I just stay away from that team because I don't
Speaker 2: even know. I don't even know who's like who's going
Speaker 2: to be at quarterback. Well, no, it's gonna be Teddy Bridgewater.
Speaker 2: But they just signed Christi McCaffrey to a big deal.
Speaker 2: That's always a little bit of curse for running back
Speaker 2: late least getting signed to a big deal. So Panthers
Speaker 2: are just a little bit of a question for me.
Speaker 2: I'd stay away from from the Panthers win total.
Speaker 1: All right. I like the strong takes, and as somebody
Speaker 1: who's old himself, I take a little bit of offense. So
Speaker 1: how bad you're hitting on these older quarterbacks? But yeah,
Speaker 1: so here, First of all, you seem just to be
Speaker 1: clear that you said over Falcons, and I get that
Speaker 1: you're a Falcons fan, but I assume that you're able
Speaker 1: to put that aside when you're assessing the team that's
Speaker 1: your favorite over under of the NFC. Is that what
Speaker 1: you're saying?
Speaker 2: Oh yes, I already know I'm going to be placing.
Speaker 2: I want to see how the draft goes because I
Speaker 2: need to see who they're going to take in the
Speaker 2: first round. It's it's hopefully going to be either pass
Speaker 2: rusher defensive back. But I plan on making a very
Speaker 2: sizable bet on the over on their win total this season.
Speaker 1: Interesting, Okay, So I mean, I I lean towards the
Speaker 1: over as well, but I don't feel all that strongly
Speaker 1: about it. And you know, for me, it's again, offensively,
Speaker 1: they should largely look the same, right, I mean, they
Speaker 1: got rid of DeVonta Freeman, but they added in Todd Gurley.
Speaker 1: They got rid of Austin Hooper, but they got Hayden Hurst,
Speaker 1: which to me, I don't really think that's a huge
Speaker 1: difference when I'm looking at it. I hope Austin Hooper
Speaker 1: fans don't yell at me, but you know, you get
Speaker 1: another growth from Calvin Ridley. They were fifteenth in offensive
Speaker 1: DBOA last year, so I think they'll be fine offensively,
Speaker 1: and again as always, they've got to find a way
Speaker 1: to stay healthy on defense, and they added Dante Fowler
Speaker 1: so they'll have a better pass rush. For me, the
Speaker 1: reason why I'm not, you know, jumping for joy about
Speaker 1: them is, you know, the schedule. Again, We've talked about
Speaker 1: it a lot here. Don't go crazy with opponent's win percentage,
Speaker 1: but it's the fifth toughest tide and you know, the
Speaker 1: division outside of the Panthers is tough. You know, I'm
Speaker 1: not ready to you know, I'm not saying you're writing
Speaker 1: them off. But I do think the Bucks are probably
Speaker 1: a better team. I do think the Saints are certainly
Speaker 1: a better team. And when you look at their schedule
Speaker 1: outside of the Division, They're at Green Bay, They're at Arrowhead,
Speaker 1: They've obviously got to go, you know, at New Orleans
Speaker 1: one of the games, and at Tampa, they've got to
Speaker 1: go at Minnesota, at Dallas. They've got tough road games.
Speaker 1: Those games are tough to win, right because they've got
Speaker 1: a pretty nice little home field going on there. So
Speaker 1: that's really what worries me a little bit about them,
Speaker 1: and the reason again, if I'm going one way or
Speaker 1: the other, I'm going over and it is one of
Speaker 1: the ones that I like better. I don't love this
Speaker 1: division at all, but it is one of the ones
Speaker 1: I liked a little bit better. But I would go
Speaker 1: over a little bit with them, but not jumping for
Speaker 1: joy because of the schedule, because how tough their road
Speaker 1: games is, you know what I'm saying.
Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely, And the biggest concern for me with the Falcons,
Speaker 2: especially on offense. Obviously talented at almost every single position,
Speaker 2: but it is their offensive line. I'm a big believer
Speaker 2: in trenches. The Trench's offensive and defensive line are the
Speaker 2: most important positions on a football team, and their offensive
Speaker 2: line is questionable. Now. They were a little bit banged
Speaker 2: up last season, but two of their starters last season
Speaker 2: were rookies, so having a season under the belt for
Speaker 2: both rookies, I'm hoping their offensive line gets better. They
Speaker 2: have to because their offensive line was a big issue
Speaker 2: last year. So if there was one concern that I
Speaker 2: would have on the Falcons hitting the over on their
Speaker 2: win total, it's their offensive line.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think that's fair. The other one I like,
Speaker 1: and again you went the other way on this one,
Speaker 1: which is totally fair, and all your points you brought up,
Speaker 1: I kind of like the Saints over actually, and look,
Speaker 1: they've got at least eleven wins in three straight years.
Speaker 1: They finally got Breeze a second receiver that he could
Speaker 1: rely on. It's not you know, Ted Gin anymore or
Speaker 1: Trakeon Smith. It's Emanuel Sanders, So I think it's kind
Speaker 1: of a perfect fit for that team. They also added
Speaker 1: you know, Malcolm Jenkins that safety, so I think he's
Speaker 1: going to improve their defense. Their schedule it lays out
Speaker 1: pretty well for them, and most of their tough games.
Speaker 1: The Chiefs, the forty nine Ers, the Packers, the Vikings,
Speaker 1: all of those are at home, which is a major
Speaker 1: advantage for the Saints. And look, Breeze is certainly not
Speaker 1: exactly what he once was. I mean, his completion percentage
Speaker 1: still mind boggling, but he doesn't have the arm strength
Speaker 1: that he used to or anything like that. But a
Speaker 1: when you get him another receiver like they did and
Speaker 1: b bottom line is, you know, Teddy Bridgewater is not
Speaker 1: anywhere in the same class as Breeze, and they still
Speaker 1: win I believe five and oh when Bridgewater was in
Speaker 1: their last year. So I think even if Breeze starts
Speaker 1: dropping off, and I don't expect him to drop off
Speaker 1: a cliff, that's the thing. I don't think it's gonna
Speaker 1: be the There's always the risk that it's Peyton Manning
Speaker 1: in his final year right where you know there are
Speaker 1: maybe a few signs the year before, but you certainly
Speaker 1: don't expect him to come out and be like, all
Speaker 1: of a sudden, can't throw whatsoever. There's always that risk
Speaker 1: when you get to this stage. But I haven't really
Speaker 1: seen enough signs on it from Breeze, so I'm certainly
Speaker 1: expecting him to be even if he's not what he
Speaker 1: was last year, not to fall off a cliff. And
Speaker 1: I think the Saints, you know, their offensive scheme as
Speaker 1: you saw with Bridgewater, adding in Emmanuel Sanders gives them
Speaker 1: enough to be able to get to eleven wins here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you made some good points there. One thing I
Speaker 2: had looked at that kind of now and whether or
Speaker 2: not I would go the under in the wing total
Speaker 2: is the fact that their toughest games are at home.
Speaker 2: That's a really good point. They have a massive home
Speaker 2: field advantage, right, So yeah, you convinced me from saying
Speaker 2: that I would take the under and that to now
Speaker 2: it's a stay away from me.
Speaker 1: Yes, you are right, That's all I've ever wanted. There
Speaker 1: is one thing that we I think we'd be remiss
Speaker 1: if we didn't point out, which is we don't know
Speaker 1: for sure that they're going to be playing these games
Speaker 1: in this schedule in the way it's slid out now, right.
Speaker 1: We really don't know whether or not it's somehow going
Speaker 1: to be in other stadiums in other places. So when
Speaker 1: you're making your bets, you obviously have to factor that,
Speaker 1: and for now, I think you go forward and personally,
Speaker 1: I don't know about you. I mean, I am expecting
Speaker 1: them to figure out a way to play the games
Speaker 1: as normally for basically an entire season. Now what there
Speaker 1: That means there are no fans in the stadium, which
Speaker 1: is probably what I expect. That's fine, but I do
Speaker 1: and that may take away, by the way, from the
Speaker 1: home field advantage. Of course, without without saying, unless you're Atlanta, right,
Speaker 1: your boys who can pop in some maybe they should
Speaker 1: just allow everyone to do that, just say, all right,
Speaker 1: get your get a tape of all your crowd noise,
Speaker 1: that you get pump, but that that is gonna affect something.
Speaker 1: But still again, even so, I still think just generally
Speaker 1: being at home, being in a dome, it's just better
Speaker 1: for Breeze than the Saints. So it is something where
Speaker 1: I lean over. And you know, I also not that
Speaker 1: I let this factor in, but I'd like to see
Speaker 1: Breeze be able to take one home. And I think
Speaker 1: you still got enough left in the tank. And I
Speaker 1: think when he doesn't, he's gonna walk away from the game.
Speaker 1: He's not gonna be Brady, who's really probably gonna hold
Speaker 1: on until no team will sign him. Essentially, so that
Speaker 1: could be forever. But let's move on here to our
Speaker 1: final division, the NFC West. You've got the forty nine
Speaker 1: ers over under of ten and a half, the Seahawks
Speaker 1: and over under of nine and a half, the Rams
Speaker 1: and over under of eight and a half, and the
Speaker 1: Cardinal's over under seven. So no real black sheep in
Speaker 1: this division at this point. How are you feeling about
Speaker 1: this one?
Speaker 2: Uh? The one I like the most is the Rams
Speaker 2: over eight and a half. I mean, this is a
Speaker 2: team that was in the Super Bowl a couple of
Speaker 2: years ago. Obviously, the big determining factor of how they're
Speaker 2: going to do this season is Jared Goff. He did
Speaker 2: not look great last season. He was probably the biggest
Speaker 2: reason why they didn't make the playoffs. I don't think
Speaker 2: he's a great quarterback. I don't think he's a top
Speaker 2: five quarterback, maybe not even a top ten quarterback. But
Speaker 2: I think he is better than what he was last year.
Speaker 2: Eight and a half's two low number for a team.
Speaker 2: I'm still a big Sean McVeigh believer. I think he
Speaker 2: is one of the best coaches in the league. So
Speaker 2: I think it's just too low of a win total
Speaker 2: for a team with that much talent on the roster,
Speaker 2: and that could have a head coach. I like the
Speaker 2: over on that one. The other one that I'd be
Speaker 2: looking at in that division is the under in the Cardinals.
Speaker 2: Because I'm not a believer whatsoever in Kyler Murray, I
Speaker 2: need to see more of him. I just think he
Speaker 2: looks to run with the ball too much than too yeah,
Speaker 2: too much than that I would like in a quarterback.
Speaker 2: I think I'd rather like to see him use his
Speaker 2: feet to gain more time in the pocket. But it
Speaker 2: seems like he pulls the ball down and looks for
Speaker 2: areas to run a little bit too quickly when he's
Speaker 2: dropping back and going through his progression. So seven I
Speaker 2: think is too many, too many wins for the Cardinals.
Speaker 2: So the two that I liked the most would be
Speaker 2: the under and the Cardinals and the over in the Rams.
Speaker 1: Interesting, Okay, so I don't I don't have a strong
Speaker 1: feeling on the Rams. I think if I were to
Speaker 1: go one way, it would probably be the over. They
Speaker 1: haven't had a great I mean they obviously, you know,
Speaker 1: they had no calf space whatsoever. So they got rid
Speaker 1: of Girly and they got rid of Cooks who didn't
Speaker 1: really do all that much. And yeah, golf struggled, but
Speaker 1: really that was because of the offensive line. And I'm
Speaker 1: not sure how much better it's going to be this year.
Speaker 1: And you know, something that people haven't really talked about
Speaker 1: that much is Wade Phillips has gone. He's not gonna
Speaker 1: be the defensive coordinator and I think he had kind
Speaker 1: of a big impact. But even then, they still are
Speaker 1: a very talented team even with all these warts. And
Speaker 1: I know they only went nine and seven last year,
Speaker 1: but I agree with you that I think McVeigh is
Speaker 1: going to be able to make certain adjustments, you know,
Speaker 1: seeing what he did last year to get them tonight wins.
Speaker 1: So I lean over a little bit.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: I don't have a strong feeling on the Cardinals. I
Speaker 1: think seven sounds about right to me, But it is
Speaker 1: surprising to me. I think that you view this right
Speaker 1: out of the gate as a six win team. Look,
Speaker 1: they went five ten and one last year, so they
Speaker 1: almost won six games. I think you can. You know,
Speaker 1: for me, I'm expecting Kyler Murray to take a step forward,
Speaker 1: you know, and obviously they added DeAndre Hopkins and you
Speaker 1: know they'll have Kenyan Drake the entire year. So I
Speaker 1: do think you know, Murray, you're worried about him looking
Speaker 1: to run every time he has the ball, Maybe he
Speaker 1: won't as much now, both with just natural growth that
Speaker 1: comes from your second year and also the fact that
Speaker 1: he has a legitimate stud wide receiver out there. They also,
Speaker 1: you know, they added a couple of pieces on defense.
Speaker 1: You know, they had a Canar, they had a Jordan Phillips,
Speaker 1: they had a Devandra Campbell. So it is going to
Speaker 1: be an improved team. It's to be clear, I don't
Speaker 1: like either side of this bet. It's a tough division,
Speaker 1: the schedule's not great, and seven strikes me as a
Speaker 1: pretty solid But it just surprised me because you seem
Speaker 1: pretty big on the under here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just I mean, and this is a take
Speaker 2: going into the NFL draft last year when Kyler Murray
Speaker 2: was being drafted. I've never thought that he was going
Speaker 2: to be a great NFL quarterback. So it was kind
Speaker 2: of a hot take that I had to put out there.
Speaker 2: And I'm just sticking to my guns. That's all right,
Speaker 2: But I mean, I don't know, I don't know. Their
Speaker 2: wins last year weren't by a whole lot of points.
Speaker 2: They beat the Falcons in a game they should not
Speaker 2: have won by one point. They barely got by the Bengals,
Speaker 2: and another win, barely got by the Giants, and another win.
Speaker 2: I don't know. I'm just not a Kyler Murray believer.
Speaker 2: Seven wins. I just think it's too many. But I mean,
Speaker 2: you made good points. They have. They have had a
Speaker 2: good offseason so far. I mean, you can't argue with
Speaker 2: bringing in DeAndre Hopkins. I mean, obviously that's a huge upgrade.
Speaker 2: They have a very good receiving course. So this is
Speaker 2: when I could see myself being dead wrong and to
Speaker 2: be completely honest, but I from what I've seen from
Speaker 2: Kyler Murray, I just I don't think he's a quarterback
Speaker 2: that can lead that team to over seven wins.
Speaker 1: Well we did, you know see last year that winning
Speaker 1: the with the Browns, winning the offseason does not mean,
Speaker 1: you know, success translating to the actual season. But I
Speaker 1: am more bullish on Murray, you know, especially with I
Speaker 1: agree that he he didn't really you know, there were
Speaker 1: plenty of parts of his game that needed improvement. But
Speaker 1: you know, again I give rookies. For a rookie quarterback,
Speaker 1: I was pretty impressed with what he was able to do,
Speaker 1: even if there were many games where I was like, ah,
Speaker 1: I don't understand what's happening right now, and I don't.
Speaker 1: I'm not like in love with the system you know
Speaker 1: that they have there with Kingsbury. I understand it's it's
Speaker 1: it's solid and and you know, it works in college
Speaker 1: and it works in the NFL. But I'm not like
Speaker 1: overly in love with that still. I think you add
Speaker 1: DeAndre Hopkins, you give him Kenyan Drake Coo. I think
Speaker 1: he is for that system, a perfect fit. I'm a
Speaker 1: little more bullish on them again, not something where I
Speaker 1: really love it on either side of the seven. I
Speaker 1: was just a little more surprised that you were. You know, yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm going with the the under on this, the one
Speaker 1: that I kind of like, and oh way, I don't
Speaker 1: even want to have to justify this because I look
Speaker 1: at it and I'm just like, I shouldn't because they
Speaker 1: were so overrated last year. They should not have been
Speaker 1: eleven and five. But I kind of like the Seahawks
Speaker 1: over nine and a half. I mean, the team is
Speaker 1: pretty intact, and they've added a little bit on their
Speaker 1: offensive line. They've added greg Olsen on their defense. You know,
Speaker 1: they resigned reed, they added Bruce Irvin, they traded for
Speaker 1: Quintin Dunbar for nothing. Basically, I don't know if they're
Speaker 1: gonna get clowney. I'd like to see them get clowny.
Speaker 1: It would make me feel a lot better about it
Speaker 1: if he stops asking for you know, twenty million a year,
Speaker 1: whatever he's asking for. They weren't an eleven win team.
Speaker 1: But again, you look at their schedule. You know, this
Speaker 1: year they get the AFC East, which I think is
Speaker 1: a relatively easy division. You know, they'll get the Jets,
Speaker 1: they'll get the Dolphins. I'm of the view right now
Speaker 1: that the Patriots are not going to be a particularly
Speaker 1: impressive team. I realize that that's blasphemy even without Brady
Speaker 1: to bet against Belichick, but you know, to me, I
Speaker 1: think that's a game they can win. They get the Redskins,
Speaker 1: they have a lot of winnable games there, and then
Speaker 1: you know, they get a couple of their tough games,
Speaker 1: like before they get the Vikings, they get the Cowboys,
Speaker 1: both at home. That's a really tough place to play,
Speaker 1: and you know, they're a better team in my mind
Speaker 1: than the Rams. And the Cardinals. So I think when
Speaker 1: you add that all up, and again, no matter what happens,
Speaker 1: if they ever just stop doing the Brian Schottenheimer, let's
Speaker 1: just run the ball on first down and run the
Speaker 1: ball on second down, and maybe if we fall behind,
Speaker 1: we'll let Russell Wilson be Russell Wilson where we're ten
Speaker 1: times as good as we are otherwise. I do think
Speaker 1: in the end that he's just a guy who as
Speaker 1: long as they are relatively intact offensively, he'll get them
Speaker 1: to ten wins. So I kind of like the Seahawks
Speaker 1: over nine and a half. I don't love it, but
Speaker 1: if there was one bet for me in the division,
Speaker 1: it would be the Seahawks slight lean to over nine
Speaker 1: and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do like that. Pick one thing that does
Speaker 2: worry me about the Seahawks. You made a lot of
Speaker 2: good points there the Seahawks last season. If you took
Speaker 2: every team in the NFL in each one score game,
Speaker 2: you reverse the result, the Seahawks would have worst record
Speaker 2: at the NFC, I believe. So. They won a lot
Speaker 2: of very close games last year. So that is a
Speaker 2: big reason why I'm a little bit worried to take
Speaker 2: the over nine, but Russell Wilson, I mean I think
Speaker 2: he's a I mean we're not talking MVP odds, but
Speaker 2: I think he's actually a sleeper to win MVP this season.
Speaker 2: He was close to winning it last season. I think
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson is one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
Speaker 2: So it's I can't take an under nine for a
Speaker 2: team that I think as an MVP caliber quarterback. And
Speaker 2: we were talking about Kyler Murray. If Kyler Murray wants
Speaker 2: to study a guy that he can replicate and have
Speaker 2: success with, it's Russell Wilson. That's what he needs to
Speaker 2: look at. And I don't know if maybe I'm just
Speaker 2: comparing the two because they're both short, and as a
Speaker 2: fellow short guy, I can say that short quarterbacks have
Speaker 2: a little bit of a tough time. So Russell Wilson
Speaker 2: uses his feet in the right way, though, He uses
Speaker 2: his feet to gain more time in the pocket and
Speaker 2: behind the line of scrimmage instead of just tucking the
Speaker 2: ball and looking for a place to run all the time.
Speaker 2: So if Kyler Murray wants to look at a guy
Speaker 2: that he can replicate and have success with, it's Russell Wilson.
Speaker 2: So it's hard for me to take an under that
Speaker 2: Seahawks win total of nine with Russell Wilson. But it's
Speaker 2: hard for me to take the over just given how
Speaker 2: many how many close games there in last year. And
Speaker 2: the other point that you made, which is a good point,
Speaker 2: is they just gotta they gotta stop running the ball
Speaker 2: so much. They need to just because and that's a
Speaker 2: lot of the reasons why they won these close games.
Speaker 2: It's because late in the games, it'd be they were
Speaker 2: barely winning or they were losing, and then they would
Speaker 2: just let Russell Wilson be Russell Wilson, and then Russell
Speaker 2: Wilson would do Russell Wilson type things and win the
Speaker 2: game for them on like a last second drive or
Speaker 2: something like that. So they just need to they need
Speaker 2: to give the ball to Russell Wilson, even let him
Speaker 2: call plays, sometimes run some no huddle with Russell Wilson.
Speaker 2: They're gonna find success that way. So it's a stay
Speaker 2: away from me because I just don't know about play
Speaker 2: calling and how many close games there in last year,
Speaker 2: But I like Russell Wilson a lot.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the reversing of the one score games is actually
Speaker 1: something that we talked about last earlier this week when
Speaker 1: we were talking about the Chargers, because they were the
Speaker 1: opposite if you reversed, right, if you reversed their one
Speaker 1: score games, and I like the Seahawks. They were largely intact.
Speaker 1: Of course, the change in quarterback over there, but that
Speaker 1: was something to be bullish on. So that is a
Speaker 1: really good point. I think of this analogy with baseball,
Speaker 1: where you know, there are sometimes where you have all
Speaker 1: these expected statistics and what things really should be if
Speaker 1: they worked out with expected batting average or you know,
Speaker 1: expected slugging percentage or what people should have done, and
Speaker 1: there are some players that for whatever reason just outperform
Speaker 1: their expected stats. They should be this good, they are
Speaker 1: actually much better. And that's kind of how the Seahawks
Speaker 1: feel to me every time, where yeah, they're not that
Speaker 1: good a team, but I think Wilson is just so good,
Speaker 1: especially when push comes to shove towards the end of
Speaker 1: the games, that he's able to win so many games
Speaker 1: that they really should lose, either because of their game
Speaker 1: plan or just because they were outclassed. It's just how
Speaker 1: good he is. The one point again which I think
Speaker 1: we would be remiss if we didn't talk about, is
Speaker 1: their home field advantage may not be as much of
Speaker 1: a home field advantage if there aren't fans allowed to
Speaker 1: be in the stadium, which is a possibility, And if
Speaker 1: that's the case, then yeah, the fact, you know, one
Speaker 1: of the big things is the quest is so difficult
Speaker 1: to plan because the noise is just sort of kept
Speaker 1: in and it makes it really difficult for all opposing teams.
Speaker 1: If there aren't fans, that home bield advantage probably goes
Speaker 1: out the window a bit. So that is something to
Speaker 1: think about with the Seahawks because if that's true, then
Speaker 1: there you know, games at home, like I just said,
Speaker 1: the Vikings and the Cowboys doesn't look quite as appealing,
Speaker 1: you know what I'm saying.
Speaker 2: Definitely, And it just just a quick note just about
Speaker 2: home field advantage because I mean, this is this is
Speaker 2: looking like it's gonna be a very real thing that
Speaker 2: we're gonna have to consider for the NFL season. Obviously
Speaker 2: with the Seahawks and some other teams. The fans do
Speaker 2: play a big part in home field advantage, but the
Speaker 2: biggest part in home field advantage. Everyone talks about the fans,
Speaker 2: but the biggest part is just travel in time zone change.
Speaker 2: Mm hm. So I think in the upcoming NFL season,
Speaker 2: if there is no fans at these games, I think
Speaker 2: the public, the public, just public betters are going to
Speaker 2: overvalue that fact, Whereas I think I'm still going to
Speaker 2: consider home field advantage to be to be an important factor,
Speaker 2: just because I think travel and time zone change is
Speaker 2: a much bigger factor when it comes to home field
Speaker 2: advantage more than fans. Now that's a little bit different
Speaker 2: with the Seahawks because they have that weird stadium that's
Speaker 2: built to make the crowd noise even louder than what
Speaker 2: it naturally would be, so might make so fans are
Speaker 2: more important at the Seahawks stadium than other stadiums. But
Speaker 2: just a quick note to think about home field advantage
Speaker 2: from that perspective.
Speaker 1: A really really good point, absolutely right. I mean, not
Speaker 1: having to travel and getting to you know, be comfortable
Speaker 1: and all of that is certainly a big deal, especially
Speaker 1: for teams on the coast when they play teams from
Speaker 1: the other coast, that's a big deal. But again, yeah,
Speaker 1: you talked about it. For certain teams, someone like Seattle,
Speaker 1: a team like Seattle, the crowd noise is a bigger
Speaker 1: deal because it keeps it in. But generally speaking, that's
Speaker 1: a really good point to remember as we get into
Speaker 1: the season, which is you're right, the public is probably
Speaker 1: going to be like, oh, well, you know, there's no
Speaker 1: forget about home field advantage, when realistically there's still certainly
Speaker 1: going to be a component. Yeah, all right, Ian, that
Speaker 1: was great. Thanks for coming on the show. It's been
Speaker 1: a while since we talked. I know, you know again,
Speaker 1: you've probably got some Madden to go be handicapping over there,
Speaker 1: so but it was great to catch up remind everybody
Speaker 1: where they can find more of you in your work
Speaker 1: when there is more than just Madden simulations of course
Speaker 1: to look at.
Speaker 2: Yes, absolutely, it's been nice talking to you too. It's
Speaker 2: just been nice just to talk about sports for a change.
Speaker 2: But yeah, if anyone wants to follow me in Twitter,
Speaker 2: that's the best place to keep up with all my stuff.
Speaker 2: As you mentioned at the top of the show there,
Speaker 2: Ian mac Os and I have an extra I in Ian,
Speaker 2: so it's I AI n m Acos on Twitter.
Speaker 1: Awesome. Well, thanks again for coming on And when we
Speaker 1: get into the season and look, I regardless of everything
Speaker 1: that's going on, I really I do feel confident that
Speaker 1: there will be a football season in some way, shape
Speaker 1: or form, So when there is one, I'd love to
Speaker 1: have you back on Absolutely man, I can't wait, all right,
Speaker 1: don't forget to head over to Bettingpros dot com to
Speaker 1: check out all of our consensus lines, including our Draft
Speaker 1: Day props and NFL futures. As I said, we're gonna
Speaker 1: be back on Monday talking about some of our favorite
Speaker 1: Draft Day props. Thanks again for listening, and I'll talk
Speaker 1: to you then