WEBVTT - NFC Over/Under Wins: Best Bets (Ep. 50) 0:00:07.360 --> 0:00:10.520 Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast. 0:00:10.680 --> 0:00:12.600 I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on 0:00:12.640 --> 0:00:15.560 Twitter at Dan Harris Ady. Earlier this week we broke 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.000 down some of the over unders for the AFC. Today, 0:00:18.239 --> 0:00:20.439 we're going to tackle the NFC with me to do that. 0:00:20.480 --> 0:00:23.560 As Ian McMillan a writer over at oddshark dot com. 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:27.240 You can follow him on Twitter at Ian mac os 0:00:27.480 --> 0:00:30.960 that's I a I n mac os Ian. How are you 0:00:30.960 --> 0:00:32.960 holding up with no live sports? If you found anything 0:00:32.960 --> 0:00:34.840 to quench your gambling thirst? 0:00:35.640 --> 0:00:38.320 Yeah, I've been bet betting on Madden simulations, to be 0:00:38.360 --> 0:00:41.520 completely honest. Yeah, I mean they're a complete coin toss, 0:00:41.520 --> 0:00:44.120 but at least gives me something if I close my eyes. 0:00:44.159 --> 0:00:46.360 It kind of sounds like it's actual NFL so. 0:00:47.159 --> 0:00:51.280 Sportscasters, but the sportscasters are really good. I feel like 0:00:51.440 --> 0:00:54.080 I'm Madden at least on on Madden twenty. Like, you know, 0:00:54.320 --> 0:00:57.160 I'm not a huge gamer or anything, but they're really 0:00:57.200 --> 0:00:59.959 sound realists. Like the commentary is actually kind of decent. Yeah, 0:01:00.040 --> 0:01:01.560 if you close your eyes, you might think you're in 0:01:01.600 --> 0:01:02.440 a real sporting event. 0:01:02.600 --> 0:01:06.000 Yeah, exactly, So that's what's getting me through the days 0:01:06.319 --> 0:01:07.200 nowas and. 0:01:07.160 --> 0:01:09.560 If I remember you, like you were sort of the 0:01:09.600 --> 0:01:12.000 master of everything, right, so this must be crazy for you. 0:01:12.000 --> 0:01:15.160 You've never been well you you could write if I 0:01:15.200 --> 0:01:17.280 remember reading some of your stuff, like, I mean, you 0:01:17.319 --> 0:01:20.199 weren't limited to baseball and football. You ran the gamut 0:01:20.280 --> 0:01:21.880 right in terms of what you covered over there. 0:01:22.080 --> 0:01:24.880 Yeah, I did a little bit of everything. So it's uh, yeah, 0:01:25.280 --> 0:01:28.120 tough time for me, man. Yeah, I mean golf hopefully 0:01:28.280 --> 0:01:30.839 sounds like it's going to come back and about two months, 0:01:30.880 --> 0:01:33.360 so that's some light at the end of the tunnel, 0:01:33.360 --> 0:01:33.720 I guess. 0:01:33.840 --> 0:01:36.160 Yeah. And again, you know, the powers that be are 0:01:36.200 --> 0:01:39.520 at least sort of. It seems like everybody understands that 0:01:39.640 --> 0:01:42.479 sports are important, you know, in the grand scheme of things. 0:01:42.520 --> 0:01:45.440 Of course, not given what everybody's dealing with, but overall, 0:01:45.800 --> 0:01:48.320 it's just important for the psyche of the country, right, 0:01:48.360 --> 0:01:50.360 I mean, we you know that this would we'd all 0:01:50.400 --> 0:01:52.520 be able to deal with this a little better if 0:01:52.560 --> 0:01:55.000 there was you know, I have baseball on right now, 0:01:55.120 --> 0:01:56.440 especially when football comes back. 0:01:56.680 --> 0:01:59.120 Yeah, I mean that's what sports are. They're an escape 0:01:59.160 --> 0:02:01.600 for everyone, and now more than ever, we kind of 0:02:01.600 --> 0:02:05.120 need an escape from things. So yeah, yeah, hopefully they 0:02:05.160 --> 0:02:05.440 come back. 0:02:05.480 --> 0:02:08.440 So well, the NFL continues to roll around, roll along 0:02:08.480 --> 0:02:11.840 as we're getting right to the draft, So let's jump 0:02:11.840 --> 0:02:15.200 into some NFC over unders here. As usual, we're going 0:02:15.240 --> 0:02:18.239 to be using the consensus odds over at bettingpros dot com. 0:02:18.240 --> 0:02:20.680 That's the aggregate of the odds that are available at 0:02:20.680 --> 0:02:23.680 the various sportsbooks where you can place the bet and 0:02:23.720 --> 0:02:26.440 you can find those over at bettingpros dot com slash 0:02:26.560 --> 0:02:29.880 NFL dash wins. And if you're interested in the draft, 0:02:29.919 --> 0:02:31.600 I just said it's coming up, you can go to 0:02:31.680 --> 0:02:35.520 betting pros dot com slash Draft dash Props. You can 0:02:35.520 --> 0:02:39.560 get consensus odds on pretty much any possible prop bet 0:02:39.560 --> 0:02:41.919 that you can place on the draft coming up next week, 0:02:41.960 --> 0:02:44.040 and we will be doing an episode next week on 0:02:44.120 --> 0:02:45.720 those draft props, but in the meantime you want to 0:02:45.760 --> 0:02:47.519 check them out, you can go over there bettingpros dot 0:02:47.520 --> 0:02:51.399 com slash Draft hyphen Props. All right, Ian, let's get 0:02:51.440 --> 0:02:54.080 started with the NFC East here. This is a division 0:02:54.120 --> 0:02:56.280 that's kind of broken down into the haves and the 0:02:56.320 --> 0:02:59.040 have nots. You've got two teams on top, with the 0:02:59.080 --> 0:03:02.120 Cowboys and the Eagles, both of which are over under 0:03:02.200 --> 0:03:04.359 nine and a half. And on the other side, you've 0:03:04.360 --> 0:03:06.680 got the Giants with an over under of six and 0:03:06.720 --> 0:03:09.880 the Redskins at an over under of five. Any of 0:03:09.960 --> 0:03:12.200 these do you find enticing either the over or the 0:03:12.280 --> 0:03:13.120 under on any of them? 0:03:13.880 --> 0:03:17.360 I kind of like the Cowboys over, to be completely honest. 0:03:17.800 --> 0:03:21.520 They are actually tied for the second easiest schedule this 0:03:21.639 --> 0:03:26.760 upcoming season, and they so it's at nine and a half. 0:03:26.760 --> 0:03:29.440 It looks like so, I mean, they should have got 0:03:29.440 --> 0:03:31.400 double digit wins last year. They kind of blew it 0:03:31.480 --> 0:03:34.800 late in the year. They still have a very good offense, 0:03:34.880 --> 0:03:38.160 obviously a pretty solid defense, and with that second easiest schedule, 0:03:38.200 --> 0:03:39.720 I mean that that's the one that sticks out to 0:03:39.760 --> 0:03:41.720 me the most to be the over on the Cowboys. 0:03:41.960 --> 0:03:45.400 Yeah, you know, that's interesting because if there was, you know, 0:03:45.480 --> 0:03:49.040 I don't boy, I hate to admit this, I don't 0:03:49.160 --> 0:03:51.600 love a ton in the NFC. I had a little, 0:03:51.720 --> 0:03:54.520 you know, stronger reaction to Adam Burke and I talked 0:03:54.520 --> 0:03:57.840 about it earlier this week about the AFC, But you know, 0:03:58.160 --> 0:04:02.400 I actually kind of leaned the other way on the Cowboys. Now, 0:04:02.560 --> 0:04:05.320 I will be honest, I'm I'm kind of in the minority. 0:04:05.360 --> 0:04:07.680 You look at the juice that's on it, it's you know, 0:04:07.760 --> 0:04:10.480 minus one twenty one. This is a consensus minus won 0:04:10.560 --> 0:04:12.960 twenty one to the over, even money to the under. 0:04:13.080 --> 0:04:16.520 So they want you to take the under. So you're 0:04:16.600 --> 0:04:18.560 kind of you know, you're where the sharp side of 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:21.360 it probably is. But I think for me, you know, 0:04:21.680 --> 0:04:25.880 I get it. The offense is, you know, largely intact. 0:04:25.960 --> 0:04:29.760 They resigned Tomari Cooper, they still have Dak Prescott, and 0:04:29.839 --> 0:04:32.280 they gotd of Jason Witten whatever. But Blake Darwin is 0:04:32.520 --> 0:04:34.720 perfectly capable. He'll see an increase from the thirty nine 0:04:34.720 --> 0:04:37.000 percent of snaps you saw last year. They did lose 0:04:37.040 --> 0:04:39.520 Travis Frederick. That's a big loss on their offensive line. 0:04:39.600 --> 0:04:42.039 And again they've been known for their offensive line for 0:04:42.040 --> 0:04:43.479 a couple of years. But I felt like if you 0:04:43.520 --> 0:04:46.400 looked at it last year, it was a little you know, 0:04:46.480 --> 0:04:49.120 it was a little dicier than it had been recently. 0:04:49.120 --> 0:04:51.160 And I think losing Frederick's only going to make that 0:04:51.600 --> 0:04:53.680 a little bit worse. And on the defensive side, look, 0:04:53.720 --> 0:04:58.280 I mean, you lose Byron Jones and you lose Robert Quinn, 0:04:58.360 --> 0:05:00.760 those are pretty big losses. Get that they've you know, 0:05:00.800 --> 0:05:03.760 they've added Don Tari Poe and Gerald McCoy and ha 0:05:03.960 --> 0:05:07.760 Clinton Dixon. They may have the best pass rush in 0:05:07.800 --> 0:05:10.880 the NFC if Alden Smith and Randy Gregory, you know, 0:05:11.000 --> 0:05:13.400 play out how they could. But you know that that's 0:05:13.440 --> 0:05:18.039 still pretty big question marks there. They're not a bad team, 0:05:18.080 --> 0:05:20.680 and their defense definitely should have been better. And you know, 0:05:20.800 --> 0:05:23.039 you do look at their schedule. You mentioned it, Yeah, 0:05:23.040 --> 0:05:25.800 in terms of opponents winning percentage, it's really easy. It's 0:05:25.839 --> 0:05:27.719 right up there, second or third, whatever it is. But 0:05:27.920 --> 0:05:30.240 you know, you look at the way their games break down. 0:05:31.240 --> 0:05:37.000 Seahawks in Seattle, Ravens in Baltimore, Vikings in Minnesota. They've 0:05:37.040 --> 0:05:40.320 got the forty nine Ers, the Steelers, the Browns are 0:05:40.360 --> 0:05:42.279 going to be a lot better than last year. They're rams. 0:05:42.320 --> 0:05:44.159 Teams are going to give them a fight. And I 0:05:44.160 --> 0:05:47.240 don't know whether or not switching you know, to Mike 0:05:47.320 --> 0:05:49.960 McCarthy from Jason Garrett is really going to be enough 0:05:49.960 --> 0:05:52.200 to make them play better than they should have been. 0:05:52.240 --> 0:05:55.760 It just it strikes me as a team that looks 0:05:56.200 --> 0:05:58.720 similar to last year where they should have been better. 0:05:58.760 --> 0:06:01.440 I agree, but you know, they were eight and eight, 0:06:01.560 --> 0:06:04.039 so I could see nine and seven, but over nine 0:06:04.040 --> 0:06:06.320 and a half, it just it strikes me, especially again, 0:06:06.320 --> 0:06:08.960 and I will make it clear getting even money on 0:06:09.000 --> 0:06:10.960 the under is really one of the reasons I liked it. 0:06:11.000 --> 0:06:13.359 If it was if the big wasn't as good, I 0:06:13.360 --> 0:06:15.480 probably wouldn't love it as much. But to me, I 0:06:15.480 --> 0:06:17.800 don't know, man a lot of their games, especially considering 0:06:17.839 --> 0:06:20.000 that you know they've got the tough games on the road, 0:06:20.080 --> 0:06:23.400 Like I can't see them beating the Ravens in Baltimore. 0:06:23.440 --> 0:06:25.680 It's hard to see them beating the Seahawks in Seattle. 0:06:25.960 --> 0:06:31.080 The Vikings maybe, but in Minnesota. It's just it's not something. Again, 0:06:31.080 --> 0:06:32.640 the Steelers are going to be better, the Browns are 0:06:32.640 --> 0:06:34.680 going to be better. So they're winning percentage of their 0:06:34.680 --> 0:06:37.240 opponents I don't know is really indigative. I've talked a lot, 0:06:37.279 --> 0:06:38.560 so you go ahead and make your case there. 0:06:38.600 --> 0:06:40.680 Yeah, no, I mean those are all fair points. One 0:06:40.680 --> 0:06:42.440 thing that you did bring up that is a really 0:06:42.480 --> 0:06:44.520 good point is the change of head coach. I mean, 0:06:44.520 --> 0:06:47.240 I'm not a Jason Garrett believer whatsoever, so I mean 0:06:47.279 --> 0:06:49.480 when they got rid of him, it would have made 0:06:49.560 --> 0:06:51.360 me think that that they'd be a better team. But 0:06:51.400 --> 0:06:53.800 then hiring Mike McCarthy. I mean, who knows if that 0:06:53.839 --> 0:06:55.520 was the right call in that situation. I mean, Mike 0:06:55.600 --> 0:06:57.360 McCarthy has won a Super Bowl, so it's kind of 0:06:57.360 --> 0:06:59.960 hard to speak too negatively of them. 0:07:00.279 --> 0:07:02.679 Although I will say before you jumped into that further, 0:07:02.880 --> 0:07:05.600 is that last year when the Jets, my team were 0:07:05.640 --> 0:07:08.880 looking for a head coach, I was happy when they 0:07:08.920 --> 0:07:12.400 got Adam Gaze as opposed to Mike McCarthy. Now, that 0:07:12.720 --> 0:07:14.600 just may be my own personal thing, and I'm certainly 0:07:14.680 --> 0:07:16.840 not excited about Adam Gase, but it was more about, 0:07:16.880 --> 0:07:19.040 I guess, probably for me, to be fair, the fact 0:07:19.040 --> 0:07:21.880 that you signed Mike McCarthy. He's probably there for five years, 0:07:21.880 --> 0:07:24.320 regardless of what happens where They can probably get out 0:07:24.320 --> 0:07:27.200 from Adam Gaze, hopefully after this year. But yeah, it depends. 0:07:27.200 --> 0:07:29.560 Maybe he's all in on analytics now, right, you spend 0:07:29.600 --> 0:07:32.720 all that time watching analytics or whatever he said that 0:07:32.800 --> 0:07:34.920 he said to Jerry Jones to get the job. But yeah, 0:07:35.080 --> 0:07:37.680 it's probably not a downgrade at the very least from 0:07:37.800 --> 0:07:40.280 Jason Garrett, who screamed mediocrity. 0:07:40.720 --> 0:07:43.600 Now, I mean, there's another coaching change in the NFC's 0:07:43.640 --> 0:07:45.920 not to get too far off the Cowboys here almost, 0:07:45.920 --> 0:07:50.160 but the Giants obviously bringing in Joe Judge. I mean, 0:07:50.200 --> 0:07:53.000 it's hard to tell with win percentage or with win 0:07:53.120 --> 0:07:54.720 totals how much a head coach is going to have 0:07:54.760 --> 0:07:56.760 an effect on that. But four wins last year for 0:07:56.840 --> 0:07:59.440 the Giants over under six this year? Can they improve 0:07:59.520 --> 0:08:01.360 more than two wins in order to hit the over? 0:08:01.400 --> 0:08:03.520 For the Giants? That's a little bit tough to tell. 0:08:03.560 --> 0:08:07.280 How much is Daniel Jones gonna improve? I mean, obviously 0:08:07.360 --> 0:08:10.360 they have offensive line issues that they need to address. 0:08:11.280 --> 0:08:13.400 If I were to look at another nfcast team, I 0:08:13.400 --> 0:08:15.120 think I would have to go the under in that 0:08:15.160 --> 0:08:18.360 Giants win total of six. I just don't think that 0:08:18.360 --> 0:08:21.760 they've made the improvements enough improvements to improve by more 0:08:21.760 --> 0:08:23.440 than three wins this upcoming season. 0:08:23.520 --> 0:08:25.440 Yeah, this time we're on the same side. That was 0:08:25.480 --> 0:08:27.120 the other one that I was kind of looking at 0:08:27.160 --> 0:08:29.240 that if I had to pick one here, I'd like 0:08:29.360 --> 0:08:35.040 the under on six. Yeah, they just really haven't done 0:08:35.120 --> 0:08:37.160 any I mean, they added James Bradberry, he's good, Blake 0:08:37.160 --> 0:08:40.840 Martinez fine, they kept Leonard Williams around, but they their 0:08:41.000 --> 0:08:44.680 offensive line stinks. They've got no pass rush. I mean 0:08:45.000 --> 0:08:47.839 you know, they they've got what the fourth overall picks, 0:08:47.880 --> 0:08:50.560 so you know, everybody thinks they're gonna take Simmons, you know, 0:08:50.640 --> 0:08:53.439 out of Clemson, and you know you've got Saque healthy 0:08:53.480 --> 0:08:54.959 for a full year, and you've got another year out 0:08:54.960 --> 0:08:58.000 of Jones. But you know, again, their schedule, just like 0:08:58.040 --> 0:09:00.960 the Cowboys, is pretty easy when you look at opponents 0:09:01.000 --> 0:09:03.800 win percentage at least, and you know, they've got the 0:09:03.840 --> 0:09:08.200 Redskins twice. They've got the Bengals in Cincy. They've made, 0:09:08.400 --> 0:09:11.000 you know, the Cardinals an improved team at home. But 0:09:11.160 --> 0:09:14.120 you know, even if you give them all that, they 0:09:14.120 --> 0:09:16.960 still need three more wins. They get the Ravens of Baltimore, 0:09:17.000 --> 0:09:19.199 the Bears in Chicago, the Rams in Los Angeles, the 0:09:19.280 --> 0:09:21.679 Seahawks and Seattle. They've got to play the Bucks, who 0:09:21.720 --> 0:09:24.000 are going to be improved of course with Brady, the Steelers, 0:09:24.200 --> 0:09:26.720 who should be improved with Big Ben there, the Browns, 0:09:26.720 --> 0:09:29.320 which should be improved, the forty nine Ers, you know, 0:09:29.800 --> 0:09:32.520 unless they can split against the Cowboys and the Eagles, 0:09:32.559 --> 0:09:35.440 and the Cowboys and Eagles are both much better teams 0:09:35.520 --> 0:09:38.480 than the Giants, so it's hard to see them getting 0:09:38.480 --> 0:09:40.760 to seven. So with that one I agree with you. 0:09:40.800 --> 0:09:42.640 I don't know. We'll touch on this before we go. 0:09:42.679 --> 0:09:45.880 There's one other coaching change and that's the Redskins. You know, 0:09:45.960 --> 0:09:49.440 who are bringing in Ron Rivera. They're over under is five, 0:09:49.559 --> 0:09:52.360 and man, it is hard when an over under is 0:09:52.520 --> 0:09:56.160 that low to not be like, I mean, just football, 0:09:56.480 --> 0:09:59.640 you know, that's the way football is. You've got these 0:09:59.640 --> 0:10:02.160 teams look like they'll be abysmal, and you get, man, 0:10:02.400 --> 0:10:03.840 how are you going to get more than three wins? 0:10:03.840 --> 0:10:06.280 But I don't know, this was not one that I 0:10:06.280 --> 0:10:08.080 felt good about on either side. Do you want to 0:10:08.080 --> 0:10:09.920 touch the Redskins over under five at all? Or is 0:10:09.920 --> 0:10:11.719 that one that you're just like, nah, that's about right. 0:10:11.760 --> 0:10:12.480 I'm running away. 0:10:12.760 --> 0:10:14.600 Yeah, I'd run away from that one. And the main 0:10:14.640 --> 0:10:16.880 reason why is just I don't know what Dwayne Haskins 0:10:16.920 --> 0:10:18.559 is going to do. I don't know. Maybe the Redskins 0:10:18.679 --> 0:10:21.559 might even draft a different quarterback in this upcoming draft. 0:10:21.600 --> 0:10:24.240 So right now, with the way things stand, I would 0:10:24.240 --> 0:10:26.200 have to just stay away with the Redskins because just 0:10:26.360 --> 0:10:28.760 way too many question marks. But I do like the 0:10:29.160 --> 0:10:32.520 Redskins coach hiring better than the other two in the 0:10:32.600 --> 0:10:35.520 NFC East though, so that's one positive for the Redskins. 0:10:35.720 --> 0:10:39.320 Yeah. Sure, Ron Rivera is certainly an admired coach. He's 0:10:39.360 --> 0:10:42.280 going to bring you a good just sort of psyche 0:10:42.320 --> 0:10:44.400 to that team. The one thing to think about, by 0:10:44.440 --> 0:10:46.480 the way, when you're looking at all the over unders 0:10:46.480 --> 0:10:48.600 that are coming, especially now we'll talk about it here 0:10:48.600 --> 0:10:52.000 with the NFC East, is that you know, there may 0:10:52.000 --> 0:10:55.160 be short training camps right now with everything that's going on, 0:10:55.200 --> 0:10:57.920 so it might see an effect on implementing any of 0:10:57.960 --> 0:11:00.679 these new systems, which could you know, even if the 0:11:01.440 --> 0:11:04.320 season starts on time, it could make a real difference. 0:11:04.360 --> 0:11:07.840 So it is a little something where again that's probably 0:11:08.280 --> 0:11:10.480 a little bit why I lean the unders on both 0:11:10.520 --> 0:11:13.240 of those that I talked about, the Cowboys and the Giants, 0:11:13.240 --> 0:11:15.360 because I also think that's an added thing that's gonna 0:11:15.440 --> 0:11:17.880 hurt some of these teams that have changed coaches. 0:11:18.160 --> 0:11:19.200 Yeah, that's a really good point. 0:11:19.280 --> 0:11:22.240 Let's move on here to the NFC North. This one's 0:11:22.240 --> 0:11:24.679 a little more jumbled. You've got both the Packers and 0:11:24.720 --> 0:11:27.560 the Vikings over under of nine, the Bears over under 0:11:27.559 --> 0:11:30.319 of eight, and the Lions over under of six and 0:11:30.400 --> 0:11:31.960 a half. What do you think here any of these 0:11:32.480 --> 0:11:33.679 strike your fancy a little bit. 0:11:34.679 --> 0:11:36.439 I'm to be honest, I'm a little bit surprised that 0:11:36.520 --> 0:11:39.839 the Packers are at nine. If they were at ten, 0:11:39.880 --> 0:11:42.640 I would have taken the under. I think this is 0:11:42.679 --> 0:11:45.040 going to be a year of reckoning for older quarterbacks, 0:11:45.120 --> 0:11:47.400 and that includes Aaron Rodgers, and that includes some other 0:11:47.480 --> 0:11:49.280 quarterbacks are going to touch on here in some other 0:11:49.360 --> 0:11:53.640 divisions in the NFC. The biggest one that probably sticks 0:11:53.640 --> 0:11:55.800 out to me there in the NFC North is the Bears. 0:11:55.800 --> 0:11:57.760 I think they're lucky to be eight and eight last year. 0:11:57.800 --> 0:11:59.680 I don't think Nick Foles is not the answer at 0:11:59.720 --> 0:12:03.560 quarter back, So I would lean the under in the Bears. 0:12:03.559 --> 0:12:06.160 That would probably be my best bet o to that group. 0:12:06.240 --> 0:12:08.760 But a lot of question marks in the NFC North, 0:12:09.120 --> 0:12:11.520 especially at quarterback. Is Kirk Cousin's going to do anything 0:12:11.520 --> 0:12:14.800 for the Vikings this year? I mean, they got rid 0:12:14.840 --> 0:12:17.800 of Stefan Diggs. There's rumors about them getting OBJ. Let's 0:12:17.800 --> 0:12:19.960 see if they get OBJ. I don't think they're going to. 0:12:20.559 --> 0:12:22.679 But probably the biggest one I would lean towards is 0:12:22.720 --> 0:12:26.199 the under and the Bears. I just I they need 0:12:26.200 --> 0:12:28.160 a quarterback. They need a quarterback. They just don't have 0:12:28.240 --> 0:12:30.400 enough offensive weapons, and I don't think Nick Foles is 0:12:30.440 --> 0:12:31.040 the answer there. 0:12:31.280 --> 0:12:33.760 I think the one thing that I feel when I 0:12:33.800 --> 0:12:36.760 look at the teams in this division is that none of 0:12:36.800 --> 0:12:40.319 them has gotten better. Is that possible? Like they all 0:12:40.400 --> 0:12:43.920 just seem worse than they were last year? Right? Am 0:12:43.960 --> 0:12:44.400 I crazy? 0:12:44.559 --> 0:12:44.840 Or is that? 0:12:44.920 --> 0:12:45.920 Is that how you look at them too? 0:12:46.440 --> 0:12:48.360 That's exactly how I looked on Yeah. I mean, obviously 0:12:48.360 --> 0:12:49.440 we still have a little bit of ways to go, 0:12:49.480 --> 0:12:51.880 especially with the draft as well, but to this point 0:12:51.920 --> 0:12:53.920 of the offseason, none of them have improved. They've all 0:12:53.960 --> 0:12:55.360 probably got slightly worse. 0:12:55.640 --> 0:12:58.360 Yeah, I agree, So, I mean you touched on them, 0:12:58.360 --> 0:13:00.160 but I think, you know, if there's one that I 0:13:00.280 --> 0:13:04.559 kind of like here, it's probably the Packers over nine. 0:13:04.640 --> 0:13:06.520 I don't necessarily know if they'll get to ten, but 0:13:06.640 --> 0:13:10.040 I feel pretty confident that they'll get to nine and 0:13:10.040 --> 0:13:11.800 that it would be a push. It almost I think 0:13:11.840 --> 0:13:13.280 they were over under nine last year and I said 0:13:13.280 --> 0:13:15.600 the exact same thing coming in. It's a four win 0:13:15.760 --> 0:13:18.040 drop from last year. And I get that they played, 0:13:18.200 --> 0:13:19.680 you know, they were not they were one of the 0:13:19.679 --> 0:13:22.640 worst thirteen and three teams. Yeah, probably of all time, right, 0:13:22.640 --> 0:13:25.280 even though they made it to the NFC Championship game. 0:13:25.520 --> 0:13:28.480 They were not a thirteen win team. But you know, 0:13:28.800 --> 0:13:32.679 even with the quiet offseason, you know, they lost Brian Blaga, 0:13:33.000 --> 0:13:36.719 you know, Jimmy Graham whatever, and Geronimolson also whatever. They've 0:13:36.760 --> 0:13:39.600 lost some key pieces on defense like Blake Martinez, b J. Goodson, 0:13:40.040 --> 0:13:43.920 Kyler Facrel and their additions have don't really move the needle. 0:13:43.960 --> 0:13:46.320 I mean, they so desperately need a second receiver and 0:13:46.360 --> 0:13:48.679 the idea that Devin Funches is gonna solve all this. Now, 0:13:48.720 --> 0:13:51.400 this is a really deep receiver class for the draft, 0:13:51.440 --> 0:13:53.960 so this could be something that they'll get here. But 0:13:54.040 --> 0:13:56.400 you know, Rick Wagner on the offensive line, Christian Kirksey's 0:13:56.480 --> 0:14:00.600 fine on defense, but they're really not you know, they 0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:02.959 need someone on offense. Whether or not they draft somebody 0:14:03.040 --> 0:14:05.760 or Alan Lazard comes out or Jay Sternberger takes that step, 0:14:05.960 --> 0:14:09.000 they certainly need somebody to step up here. You know, 0:14:09.080 --> 0:14:12.480 they've got a pretty tough overall schedule, but you know, 0:14:12.600 --> 0:14:15.320 they are better. You mentioned that the Bears should be worse. 0:14:15.360 --> 0:14:17.800 I agree with that, the Lions and the Bears, and 0:14:17.840 --> 0:14:21.040 that they get the Panthers, they get the Jaguars, the Falcons. 0:14:21.400 --> 0:14:23.560 I just feel like to get to at least nine wins, 0:14:23.600 --> 0:14:25.640 especially with this division, I think they get there and 0:14:25.960 --> 0:14:28.560 just I don't know, man, Maybe it's the optics of 0:14:28.560 --> 0:14:31.880 seeing a four wind drop. You know, that's a lot. 0:14:32.160 --> 0:14:34.680 That's a lot, you know, And even though they weren't 0:14:34.720 --> 0:14:37.640 that good to me, I just feel like your worst 0:14:37.720 --> 0:14:39.400 case at this point is a push. By the way, 0:14:39.440 --> 0:14:41.360 it's minus one ten on both sides, so it's not 0:14:41.480 --> 0:14:43.720 leaning either way. But I think i'd go with the 0:14:43.760 --> 0:14:46.400 over on the Packers. I agree with you that I'm 0:14:46.440 --> 0:14:48.600 not sitting here being like, whoa boy, They're gonna get 0:14:48.600 --> 0:14:50.680 to ten wins. I feel really good about that, But 0:14:50.720 --> 0:14:55.400 I do think nine is probably I feel very confident 0:14:55.440 --> 0:14:57.480 they can get to nine and at worse push, you 0:14:57.480 --> 0:14:58.320 know what I'm saying. 0:14:58.360 --> 0:15:01.160 Yeah, I think nine is probably the right number. Like 0:15:01.200 --> 0:15:03.480 I said, I'm kind of I'm surprised is that big 0:15:03.480 --> 0:15:05.840 of a drop off since they had thirteen wins last year. 0:15:05.880 --> 0:15:09.200 I thought that number would be ten at least, so 0:15:09.720 --> 0:15:11.400 I would have taken the under if it was ten. 0:15:11.480 --> 0:15:13.720 At nine, I think that's the right number. So that's 0:15:13.800 --> 0:15:15.920 kind of a stay away for the Packers For me. 0:15:16.240 --> 0:15:18.240 The only other one in the North that I kind 0:15:18.240 --> 0:15:20.720 of liked, and I you know, again, I feel like 0:15:20.880 --> 0:15:23.600 I'm at the extremes right now. I mean, the numbers 0:15:23.640 --> 0:15:25.800 aren't huge in this division at least. I mean the 0:15:25.840 --> 0:15:28.400 top one is over nine and the bottom one is 0:15:28.560 --> 0:15:30.200 over under six and a half. So it's not a 0:15:30.240 --> 0:15:32.960 huge difference. But I kind of lean under on the Lions. 0:15:33.040 --> 0:15:35.520 There's just been to me, there's been a really bad 0:15:35.640 --> 0:15:38.000 offseason for the Lions. I mean, their defensive line is 0:15:38.000 --> 0:15:42.960 completely decimated. They lost Snax Harrison and Ashaun Robinson, Mike Daniels, Cainnard, 0:15:43.520 --> 0:15:46.240 they lost Arius Sleigh, you know who I get. There 0:15:46.280 --> 0:15:47.760 was a lot of you know a lot of people 0:15:47.840 --> 0:15:50.200 thought that he underperformed last year. He just seemed miserable. 0:15:50.400 --> 0:15:52.240 I really, you know, I think that he's fine and 0:15:52.280 --> 0:15:54.280 he'll be a boon to the Eagles. You know, they 0:15:54.280 --> 0:15:57.120 brought in Desmondryfont, but he is no you know, he's 0:15:57.120 --> 0:16:00.000 not what he once was. They did add darn Harmon 0:16:00.080 --> 0:16:02.560 and from the Pats, but I don't really think that 0:16:02.640 --> 0:16:07.320 their pass defense is going to improve significantly, and it 0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:10.360 wasn't good last year. And then look they signed you know, 0:16:10.360 --> 0:16:13.400 they overpaid for Vyti on their offensive line, but they're 0:16:13.480 --> 0:16:16.960 down Glasgow and Wagner. I mean, they have a really 0:16:17.240 --> 0:16:20.520 high pick. They have some easily winnable games, like the 0:16:20.520 --> 0:16:24.200 Redskins and the Jaguars, maybe the Panthers. But again, you know, 0:16:24.240 --> 0:16:26.200 we've talked about the schedules, and you know, I don't 0:16:26.200 --> 0:16:29.880 want to go crazy with the win percentage because teams change. Obviously. 0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:32.200 You know that. You know, when you're playing the Patriots 0:16:32.520 --> 0:16:34.840 this year, for example, it's different than it would have 0:16:34.880 --> 0:16:37.560 looked when you're playing the Patriots last year. But they've 0:16:37.600 --> 0:16:40.000 got the fifth toughest schedule. I believe they're tied for 0:16:40.040 --> 0:16:43.320 that in opponents win percentage. It's not an easy schedule. 0:16:43.840 --> 0:16:45.680 So as much as I don't love any of the 0:16:45.720 --> 0:16:48.960 other teams in the division, they all to me seem 0:16:49.280 --> 0:16:52.680 like they can pretty well handle the line. So strikes 0:16:52.720 --> 0:16:54.400 me as more of a five or six win team 0:16:54.440 --> 0:16:55.960 as opposed to six and a half. So if I 0:16:56.000 --> 0:16:58.400 was looking at one other bet here, I kind of 0:16:58.440 --> 0:17:00.000 like the under on six and a half the line. 0:17:00.040 --> 0:17:01.640 I don't know how you feel about that one. 0:17:01.640 --> 0:17:04.200 Yeah, I do. And another point with the Lions, their 0:17:04.280 --> 0:17:06.879 coach Matt Patricia, I don't believe in Matt Patricia. A 0:17:06.880 --> 0:17:09.280 few things have kind of commote this offseason that the 0:17:09.320 --> 0:17:12.240 players don't really like him either. So I think that's 0:17:12.240 --> 0:17:15.040 a recipe for disaster in Detroit this year. I think 0:17:15.080 --> 0:17:16.440 Matt Matt Patricia is not their guy. 0:17:16.760 --> 0:17:20.199 Yeah, well, I would be surprised if he makes it 0:17:20.240 --> 0:17:22.840 past the season APS in a miraculous turnaround. And again, 0:17:22.920 --> 0:17:25.280 to be as fair as possible, they were not terrible 0:17:25.320 --> 0:17:27.800 with Stafford in there. You know, when Stafford went out, 0:17:27.840 --> 0:17:30.800 they just completely went in the tank. But really, I 0:17:30.880 --> 0:17:32.520 just I don't see it from this team right now, 0:17:32.520 --> 0:17:35.480 and I don't expect you know, I think they're clearly 0:17:35.520 --> 0:17:36.919 going to be the worst team in the division, and 0:17:37.440 --> 0:17:39.359 I think five or six wins is really where I 0:17:39.359 --> 0:17:42.639 could see them top out, unless I'm really misjudging the 0:17:42.640 --> 0:17:46.040 team at this early point. Let's move here to the South, 0:17:46.119 --> 0:17:50.439 where we've got a really kind of interesting division because 0:17:50.480 --> 0:17:53.359 you've got, of course Brady coming in and changing the 0:17:53.480 --> 0:17:55.640 entire dynamic of the Bucks. But you've got the Saints 0:17:56.000 --> 0:17:58.240 leading the way at an over under of ten and 0:17:58.240 --> 0:18:00.480