Speaker 1: The volume. Our divisional reaction is presented by uber Eat.
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Speaker 1: All Right, here we go, let's chop it up. John Middlecoff,
Speaker 1: former NFL scout, has his own podcasts three and Out.
Speaker 1: So I mean, listen, Kansas City Buffalo is I think
Speaker 1: what most of us. I mean, I do think Josh
Speaker 1: Allen and Patrick Mahomes, I think we can say this now.
Speaker 1: And I feel bad for Joe Burrow. They had to
Speaker 1: sell naming rights to pay him. It is an antiquated
Speaker 1: front office. I mean, it's really sad. And Tobin the
Speaker 1: GM is kind of a powerless guy. So the Chiefs
Speaker 1: are minus one and a half against the Bills. I'll
Speaker 1: take Buffalo plus one and a half. I took Buffalo
Speaker 1: plus one and a half today. I think Buffalo is
Speaker 1: going to go into Arrowhead and win. They're pretty healthy.
Speaker 1: Boy Milano again making nice plays. You know that guy
Speaker 1: doesn't get a ton of credit football. People know he
Speaker 1: made a couple of big plays near the goal line tonight.
Speaker 1: So I think I think it's been established obviously where
Speaker 1: you land matters, And you know Brady got Belichick and
Speaker 1: Joe Montana got Bill Walsh, but that's just the way
Speaker 1: it works. I think Josh Allen and Mahomes, to me, John,
Speaker 1: have separated themselves as the best two quarterbacks.
Speaker 2: In the league.
Speaker 1: I like Joe Burrow a lot, but he gets hurt
Speaker 1: and that's you know, genetics are what they are. You
Speaker 1: get hurt, it's it's it's part of your legacy. And
Speaker 1: then I think the next tier of quarterbacks after those
Speaker 1: two starts with Joe Burrow and Jaden Daniels may be
Speaker 1: right behind him. We'll get to that later in the podcast.
Speaker 1: But I kind of feel like I've watched these NFC teams, John,
Speaker 1: I do not believe. I think Kansas City and Buffalo
Speaker 1: are going to win the super Bowl one of those two.
Speaker 1: I just don't think Philadelphia has buttoned up. I think
Speaker 1: Washington season well, and if it doesn't, they're just not
Speaker 1: talented enough.
Speaker 2: Agree or disagree, totally agree. This game feels like forty
Speaker 2: nine Ers Cowboys nineteen ninety three at Arrowhead and listen.
Speaker 2: The Chiefs are my people. I probably wouldn't be sitting
Speaker 2: here with you if it wasn't for them. I do
Speaker 2: think this is the Bill's year. I think the Bills
Speaker 2: are gonna win next week, and I think they're gonna
Speaker 2: win the Super Bowl. And you know, for one year
Speaker 2: when I was with Philadelphia, Sean was there, and he's
Speaker 2: just I mean, he's a really really impressive guy. I
Speaker 2: think he's become a really good head coach. And he
Speaker 2: hired the right coordinator. I mean, going from Dorsey to
Speaker 2: Joe Brady has changed their offense. But let's be real
Speaker 2: about this. The Bills. You know, if you look back
Speaker 2: when I was younger, Manning Brady was a rivalry. But
Speaker 2: up until six oh seven, Manning could not beat him
Speaker 2: and Brady at three Super Bowls. That's kind of what
Speaker 2: this feels like.
Speaker 1: This.
Speaker 2: Lamar Mahomes is not a rivalry. This is the third
Speaker 2: time in recent memory and the Bills have lost these games,
Speaker 2: like last year the overtime game where they went three
Speaker 2: plays fifty yards or whatever. But this is the game.
Speaker 2: It's Josh versus Moms. And listen, you could make the
Speaker 2: argument because of the last lack of playoff success, we
Speaker 2: got to reorder this is it goes Mahomes, Josh, then
Speaker 2: Joe Burrow and then Lamar Jackson and the one thing
Speaker 2: and you just mentioned about Joe Burrow. He does not
Speaker 2: have the infrastructure that Lamar has. I mean the team
Speaker 2: that he took to the Super Bowl and went toe
Speaker 2: to toe with Mahomes in the other playoff game that
Speaker 2: he lost in the AFC Championship game. Like I'm sorry,
Speaker 2: Like he's just accomplished way more now. I think, you know,
Speaker 2: I used the NBA comps sometimes, like James Harden or
Speaker 2: Joel Embiid in that individual sport. I would much rather
Speaker 2: have Lamar in football than if I was in basketball
Speaker 2: and have one of those guys. So I and I
Speaker 2: think big picture, right, I still think the Ravens can
Speaker 2: win a Super Bowl. But as we sit here in
Speaker 2: twenty twenty five, like it's been a pretty big letdown
Speaker 2: given a guy that I mean, the guy could have
Speaker 2: like four MVPs and he easily could get his third.
Speaker 2: So it's this is tough. But the Ravens put them
Speaker 2: so in this position, having to go on the road.
Speaker 2: They lost a terrible game to Cleveland. The second did
Speaker 2: the Raiders that first half against the Chiefs. They didn't
Speaker 2: play very well. I mean that Raiders loss was really
Speaker 2: really bad. So I mean the Ravens and John Arba
Speaker 2: put himself in this position.
Speaker 1: Philadelphia going to the NFC Championship against Washington again. We'll
Speaker 1: get the Jade and Daniels later. Philadelphia twenty eight, Rams
Speaker 1: twenty two. It was thirteen to ten Philly at half,
Speaker 1: closer than I thought, and I'll give the Rams credit.
Speaker 1: I still feel they are about four players away. I
Speaker 1: think again, like I felt last year, they're just incredibly coached,
Speaker 1: smartly quarterbacked, a little pooka reliant Kyron Williams again a
Speaker 1: big fumble. He doesn't he fumbles too much. Remember cam Akers,
Speaker 1: they shipped him out of town. He fumbled too much.
Speaker 1: I feel like Kyron Williams is getting that point where
Speaker 1: he's fumbling in big games. But Philadelphia Jalen Carter was spectacular,
Speaker 1: Sakwan Barkley was spectacular. And when I watched philadelph I
Speaker 1: mean they have the best interior D lineman in the
Speaker 1: league along with Chris Jones. They have the best running
Speaker 1: back in the league, along with McCaffrey, who's hurt it.
Speaker 1: This team is not led by Jalen Hurts and it's
Speaker 1: not a knock. I just feel like it's their physicality
Speaker 1: on that defensive front. I feel like it's these young corners.
Speaker 1: You know, I was thinking about this with Saquon Barkley.
Speaker 1: I always root for great players to play with great teams.
Speaker 1: Lebron to Miami. Otani needed to be a Dodger or
Speaker 1: a Yankee, not an Angel, and I look at Saquon
Speaker 1: Barkley and he was just too damn good to be
Speaker 1: stuck in a circus in New York. Now he maybe
Speaker 1: he doesn't rise to Otani or Lebron, but I will
Speaker 1: say this, I really believe this, just in terms of
Speaker 1: jumping over people. Remember when he jumped over that player backwards. John,
Speaker 1: he is on a short list of the best running
Speaker 1: backs I've ever seen. Maybe he's not Walter Payton and
Speaker 1: Barry Sanders, maybe he doesn't have the dexterity at Christian McCaffrey. John,
Speaker 1: he's one of the five or six seminal running backs
Speaker 1: I've seen in my life. In terms of just talent,
Speaker 1: I think he's sensational.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think in recent memory, just as
Speaker 2: a pure runner between the tackles, when you talk about vision,
Speaker 2: power and speed, I think he's got to be on
Speaker 2: the short list with Derrick Henry and Adrian Peterson, who
Speaker 2: are two lock Hall of Famers. The difference is Adrian
Speaker 2: Peterson got to plan some pretty good teams in Minnesota,
Speaker 2: and obviously Derek Henry had Rabel the Titans, and now
Speaker 2: he has the Ravens. I thought today and I said this,
Speaker 2: I did a quick reaction after that game. I thought
Speaker 2: today was a pretty big Howie Roseman muscle flex because
Speaker 2: the quarterback. We watch four quarterbacks today, three of them
Speaker 2: all have something in common when they passed. And then
Speaker 2: there's Jalen Hurts, who just feels like everyone's so critical
Speaker 2: of Kellen Moore. It's like, guys, you can call any
Speaker 2: play you want in the pockets. He's a coin flip.
Speaker 2: You have no clue what's coming in and usually it's
Speaker 2: more tails than heads. Sakuon Barkley they got for under
Speaker 2: thirty million dollars guaranteed in a day and age. When
Speaker 2: guards you're getting fifty million dollars. Jalen Carter is a
Speaker 2: good example of let's face it. He was drafted ninth.
Speaker 2: He was the best player in that draft by a
Speaker 2: country mile, pure talent, but like from like four to eight,
Speaker 2: everyone was terrified and it took balls to draft them.
Speaker 2: But you not only needed balls to take them you
Speaker 2: needed the infrastructure then of high character leaders. They had
Speaker 2: Fletcher Cox, Jason Kelce. They had a bunch of Georgia guys.
Speaker 2: So they took the risk, but they had the infrastructure there.
Speaker 2: I mean Saquon and Jalen Carter and Jared Verse were
Speaker 2: the two best players. But Jared Verse, you could argue
Speaker 2: relatively easy pick if you need a defensive lineman, high
Speaker 2: character guy, great player. I mean, Jalen Carter was a
Speaker 2: He had to leave the combine to go to the
Speaker 2: police station. I mean remember that story. This was a
Speaker 2: walking red flag. Who is an all time great talent.
Speaker 2: I mean, honestly one of the more talented guys in
Speaker 2: the last like five years of the NFL draft. I
Speaker 2: mean today it was just what is going on their
Speaker 2: talent with just those two guys, and then on top
Speaker 2: of the rest of the talent that they have on
Speaker 2: the team, like how well they can play with their quarterback.
Speaker 2: They I mean it is conceivable they could win a
Speaker 2: Super Bowl and he could not throw one hundred and
Speaker 2: fifty yards in any playoff game or the Super Bowl,
Speaker 2: like that could be on the table because how good
Speaker 2: they are.
Speaker 1: Josh Harris in twenty eleven buys with a group the Sixers.
Speaker 1: He still hasn't gotten to an Eastern Conference championship with
Speaker 1: Joel Embiid, who's always hurt. He buys the Commander's first
Speaker 1: year NFC championship, which shows you why this league is
Speaker 1: so great. Houston was the embarrassment of the league playoffs.
Speaker 1: Washington had a fifteen year smell with Dan Snyder NFC Championship.
Speaker 1: One of the reasons I love this league. I mean
Speaker 1: two a year ago, we thought Denver was just you know,
Speaker 1: they were a heap of tires on the freeway on fire.
Speaker 1: The Commanders for the next three years can just surround
Speaker 1: Jaden Daniels with talent, and I want to talk about him.
Speaker 1: He had a five game stretch middle of the season,
Speaker 1: he got banged up, bow Nick started to surge and
Speaker 1: you were like, Okay, Jaden's more athletic maybe, but you know,
Speaker 1: but his last like eight games, his ability, I've never
Speaker 1: seen anything like this. His last ten games. It says here,
Speaker 1: twenty touchdowns, seven picks, ninety eight passer rating and they
Speaker 1: played some good teams. His ability to he's not Lamar
Speaker 1: the runner. And I'll tell you why. It's an advantage
Speaker 1: Lamar is so gifted as a runner, So was Michael Vick.
Speaker 1: Steve Young was to a large degree to and Josh
Speaker 1: Allen that you're so great as a runner, it's always
Speaker 1: an easy out, especially in high school and college. It's
Speaker 1: just an easy Jaden's fast, but he's not quite a
Speaker 1: vic or a Josh Allen when he can roll over you.
Speaker 1: But what he is he's evasive more so than like
Speaker 1: Kyler Murray. So he's he's fast enough to get out
Speaker 1: of trouble, but he's not as big and strong as Allen,
Speaker 1: or as shifty or pure speed as Lamar. So he's
Speaker 1: never He's always relied on the pocket right like he
Speaker 1: sits in the pocket. He feels so advanced to me,
Speaker 1: is a late game pocket passer. I thought Andrew Lucke
Speaker 1: was the best rookie quarterback I ever saw, but you
Speaker 1: got downside with him. He was a risk taker. He
Speaker 1: had little Sam Donold and Carson Wentz. I get no
Speaker 1: downside with this kid.
Speaker 2: None. If you just look at the best players in
Speaker 2: the NFL at quarterback, there's like three or four guys,
Speaker 2: and you know, I think Mahomes and Josh Allen are
Speaker 2: much more playmakers than Drew pocket quarterbacks. Obviously Lamar's a hybrid.
Speaker 2: It would really be Burrow and what to Burrow and
Speaker 2: Jayden have in common. They both had a transfer to LSU.
Speaker 2: Their first year at LSU did not go well, and
Speaker 2: their second year they kind of mastered it. Well, think
Speaker 2: about this. You know, Burrow's the talent he went against
Speaker 2: on defense every day in practice was better than Jaden's.
Speaker 2: But think about you play every year Alabama a Nick
Speaker 2: Saban Alabama, So with several NFL guys on the front,
Speaker 2: you play A and M who's always loaded with talent,
Speaker 2: and you just play an SEC schedule. So over the
Speaker 2: course of a couple of years, after you had already
Speaker 2: been in another school, got some reps Jayden had played
Speaker 2: today as U Burrow hadn't, and you kind of get
Speaker 2: to master your craft because I watched Jayden Daniels and
Speaker 2: you go, he's pretty calm like Joe Burrow in the pocket,
Speaker 2: you know which, And he was considered this dual threat
Speaker 2: because last year was like, well, he's really good neat
Speaker 2: ball thrower, that was like his Russell Wilson thing. But
Speaker 2: over the middle of the field blitzes can get him.
Speaker 2: He looks completely under control. That's the craziest part about
Speaker 2: his game is how cool, calm and collected he is.
Speaker 2: To me, he's the more athletic running version of Burrow
Speaker 2: because he really plays much more like a pocket quarterback.
Speaker 2: How good is he throwing over the middle of the field.
Speaker 2: I mean, that's he's the crazy part.
Speaker 1: In congested areas, He's just incredible. It's just incredible. And
Speaker 1: you know what my favorite part of this is, I
Speaker 1: love I thought like cam Ward was a winner this weekend.
Speaker 1: You know you're watching, You're watching Jade and Daniels come
Speaker 1: out of that draft, and Tennessee's probably thinking, well, I mean,
Speaker 1: cam Ward's like a thicker version of him, like Jade
Speaker 1: and Daniels' ability to just improvise. I mean, Cliff Kingsbury.
Speaker 1: Steve Kaiin was texting me, He's like Cliff Kingsbury, you know,
Speaker 1: after that mess at USC in Arizona. He's like, he
Speaker 1: earned this and deserved it. But I just think sometimes
Speaker 1: people are special. And whereas Mahomes gott to sit for
Speaker 1: his first year and Lamar didn't play until week eleven,
Speaker 1: this kid was inserted onto a really I would argue
Speaker 1: at best, second, probably third best roster in that division.
Speaker 1: And and the other thing is that Brian Kelly said
Speaker 1: us in college, he said, he's just he's just a
Speaker 1: great student of the game. He was good early, little
Speaker 1: turbulent middle of the season, got banged up. He's he's
Speaker 1: just gotten better. He's a better quarterback now than he
Speaker 1: was ten weeks ago.
Speaker 2: He's just totally I was thinking about this, think about
Speaker 2: the first three quarterbacks, Caleb, him and Drake. You know,
Speaker 2: Caleb goes to a place where every coach got fired
Speaker 2: halfway through the season. Drake goes to a place where
Speaker 2: clearly the guy was in over his head. And this
Speaker 2: guy gets to go to dan Quinn, who had taken
Speaker 2: a team to a Super Bowl, had gone to Kingsbury,
Speaker 2: who had coached in the NF had been a head
Speaker 2: coach for a long long time as the play caller,
Speaker 2: head coach in college, and the pros of just a
Speaker 2: very stable place immediately because they don't have that much talent.
Speaker 2: Mclaurin's a good player, but Zach Hurtz is like my age,
Speaker 2: the brown guy. Most people that follow the NFL don't
Speaker 2: know that much about. Defensively, Bobby Wagner's been in the
Speaker 2: league forever. I mean he's on whole seventeen or eighteen
Speaker 2: of his career.
Speaker 1: It gets best John. At best, it's the twelfth to
Speaker 1: fifteenth best roster in the league.
Speaker 2: At best, I think it's probably closer to low twenties.
Speaker 2: And what he's doing and the coaching staff's doing. And
Speaker 2: there's something in football, right, more than these other sports,
Speaker 2: Like in baseball, I can't even if Bochie's my manager,
Speaker 2: if I don't have the talent. I can't overachieve against
Speaker 2: the Dodgers over six seven games.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 2: If I'm playing the Kadie Warriors or the Shaq Kobe Lakers,
Speaker 2: I'm fucked. Phil Jackson and doesn't John Wooden could be
Speaker 2: the coach in football coaching staffs won just the belief
Speaker 2: coming into a game. I think we saw it today
Speaker 2: with McDermott and the Bills. They believe they could win
Speaker 2: that game. That matters a lot. The Lions have had
Speaker 2: this for a couple of years with Dan Campbell and
Speaker 2: then the schematics of everything, but there is just an
Speaker 2: element that they just got this guy. I mean they
Speaker 2: go for it a lot on these fourth and shorts
Speaker 2: because they got this guy that's right fourth and two
Speaker 2: with Jamis Winston or some random quarterbacks is not the same. Like,
Speaker 2: I think part of the reason he's going for it
Speaker 2: constantly is this guy. The Lions do it a lot.
Speaker 2: They got the best offensive line in the league, they
Speaker 2: got a star tight end, they got a star wide receiver,
Speaker 2: they got multiple backs. It's a high percentage play. It's
Speaker 2: not the same if you've got Tommy DeVito in that
Speaker 2: offensive line, right, So things aren't all equal. I don't
Speaker 2: think he's this crazy gun slinger. He's just going we
Speaker 2: have one of the most dynamic players I've probably ever seen.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I said this yesterday in my pod, you
Speaker 1: knew you had something special when a veteran coach, Dan
Speaker 1: Quinn and you know, a guy who had been a
Speaker 1: head coach in two plays is Cliff Kingsbury in camp
Speaker 1: were effusive with their praise. I mean, the rule with
Speaker 1: rookie quarterbacks is he'll get there. Let's lower expectations. And
Speaker 1: they kept talking to Dan Quinn. Zach Ertz told me
Speaker 1: this last week. He's like, yeah, this is different. This
Speaker 1: doesn't look like this is way better than a rookie quarterback.
Speaker 1: And I remember people saying that about Andrew lock how
Speaker 1: he memorized the Colts playbook in like two and a
Speaker 1: half days. The instincts, the poise. To me, it's just unprecedented.
Speaker 1: I've never seen anything like it. And again, I wouldn't
Speaker 1: have guessed he would be the greatest rookie quarterback of
Speaker 1: all time. In Week eight, he had played bad against Pittsburgh,
Speaker 1: a couple of picks against the Cowboys. He was banged
Speaker 1: up his last like eight weeks. It's like, is he
Speaker 1: a top five quarterback in the league.
Speaker 2: He may be. I had a scouting buddy texted me
Speaker 2: last night and said, you know, the Bears didn't even
Speaker 2: bring in Jade Daniels for a visit. And listen, I'm
Speaker 2: not trying to write off Caleb's career. We've seen Peyton
Speaker 2: Manning as bad as a rookie by all means he
Speaker 2: can give.
Speaker 1: Caleb is not this accurate, no way.
Speaker 2: But your job as a GM Adam Peters took a
Speaker 2: lot of crap because remember he had like all five
Speaker 2: quarterbacks not named Caleb Williams. He took him to top golf.
Speaker 2: That's kind of his job. Do we evaluate everybody who's
Speaker 2: going to be available? So I think you look back
Speaker 2: at Ryan Poles. It would have taken a lot of
Speaker 2: balls to not take Caleb Williams. It was the easy pick.
Speaker 2: But his job isn't to play caate to the media.
Speaker 2: His job is to get it right and get the
Speaker 2: right player. And they didn't even look at this guy
Speaker 2: and listen, Caleb can become a good player. This guy is.
Speaker 2: It's mind blowing because his team's not that talented. It'd
Speaker 2: be one thing. It's like, well, he inherited this great roster.
Speaker 2: They actually traded up from pick twenty to pick two
Speaker 2: to get them. No, like this team was terrible. It's
Speaker 2: essentially the same roster that we all made fun of
Speaker 2: last year with Ron Rivera that ended up at number two.
Speaker 2: And it's actually not because remember they traded Sweat mid season.
Speaker 2: They traded Sweat Chase Young. They don't even have a
Speaker 2: great defensive line. I mean, they don't have many defensive
Speaker 2: line beside the tackles. It's crazy what he's doing. They're
Speaker 2: the running backs for Eckler, who's a good little scat back.
Speaker 2: Yeah McNichols, who Adam Peters likes. And Brian Robinson, who
Speaker 2: a couple you know. Mid seas started fumbling, so they
Speaker 2: kind of kicked to the curve. It's not like they're
Speaker 2: handing the ball to Saquon h That's not what's going
Speaker 2: on here. It's crazy.
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Speaker 1: Big favorites generally in these national championship games roll and
Speaker 1: after a great opening drive by Notre Dame, they could
Speaker 1: never duplicate it. And Ohio State nil should stand for
Speaker 1: not in our league. You can just you know, listen,
Speaker 1: the number that matters now is sixty six thousand. That's
Speaker 1: how many kids go to Ohio State. What does that matter?
Speaker 1: Because big ten graduates don't stay. Lots of them don't
Speaker 1: stand the Midwest, not enough jobs. They go to the coast,
Speaker 1: they go make money and they pour it back into
Speaker 1: the school. And so these gigantic Big ten schools, they're
Speaker 1: not holding bake sales like Alabama and car washes like
Speaker 1: Auburn to afford the NIL. I mean, they're fan bases.
Speaker 1: They've got a lot of Ohio State grads. I know
Speaker 1: two of them that are big funders of the NIL collective.
Speaker 1: And you watch that offense sean off defense is I mean,
Speaker 1: and their offensive lines dinged up. They just got pros everywhere.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's just it, just I mean, Notre Dame
Speaker 1: is well coached, good defensively, cannot compete.
Speaker 2: Well, think about this, we get back to back years
Speaker 2: now Michigan Ohio State dominate and win the national championship.
Speaker 2: Just full of NFL guys. When you look this year,
Speaker 2: Penn State is in the final four, Texas is now
Speaker 2: an SEC team, but come on, I mean they've been
Speaker 2: there for ten minutes. Last year, Washington's in the final four.
Speaker 2: We know Oregon's not going away. I think when you
Speaker 2: look at the SEC, Alabama got there last year and
Speaker 2: Saban's like two days later. I'm out. So I think
Speaker 2: the lessen all these rulings are constantly coming out as
Speaker 2: a fluid situation. But one thing we know, nuts is
Speaker 2: ever going to go back to the way. It was
Speaker 2: more money, more funding, more cutting checks for these players,
Speaker 2: and not just Ohio State. I would say the Big
Speaker 2: Ten in general Michigan. When I lived in philadel and
Speaker 2: works for the Eagles, you know, usually local radio in
Speaker 2: a pro city, they talked a lot of Penn State.
Speaker 2: Why a lot of graduates live in that area. A
Speaker 2: lot of people went there and a lot of people
Speaker 2: watched the game. So I'm with you. I think the
Speaker 2: Big Ten have a huge advantage moving forward.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I have a place in Naples floor.
Speaker 1: It's a beautiful beach community, very very high end Sarasota
Speaker 1: Naples area. My wife introduced me to it. It's all
Speaker 1: Big Ten fans and it I mean, believe me. It
Speaker 1: is Badger, Buckeye, Wolverine, Spartan flags all over town. And
Speaker 1: let me just tell you, there is a lot of
Speaker 1: money in the Big Ten. Those graduates make a lot
Speaker 1: of money. Because I've been in Naples for about a
Speaker 1: decade now and I'm always amazed by it. I mean,
Speaker 1: Tho'll say Rodeo drive downtown and that is absolutely you know,
Speaker 1: SEC fans go to what they I think they call
Speaker 1: it the riviera, the redneck rivier or something.
Speaker 2: I've never been there.
Speaker 1: But then you go down to Sarasota in Naples and
Speaker 1: that's a different level of money, and that is big
Speaker 1: ten money. And I'll say this, A lot of people
Speaker 1: are pushing back. I'm saying this is a one off. No,
Speaker 1: it's not you and I talked about this, Penn State.
Speaker 1: Look at the size of these schools, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan,
Speaker 1: Washington's a huge school.
Speaker 2: They're not and.
Speaker 1: Those graduates they leave a lot of times their area
Speaker 1: and they're loyal. And the SEC schools, like when Alabama
Speaker 1: is think about this. Nick saban is one of the
Speaker 1: smartest coaches ever. Look how great of a coach he was.
Speaker 1: NFL teams would fly down and look at how Alabama
Speaker 1: ran their program, including Belichick. Look how good of a
Speaker 1: broadcaster he is. Saban Is, He's literally made game day
Speaker 1: feel huge. And everybody on that's talented. Reese, Pat Herb Street, Howard.
Speaker 1: I mean, those guys are all talented. Nick is just
Speaker 1: makes it feel huge, car dealerships, the way he has
Speaker 1: leveraged his career. Just how smart this guy is the
Speaker 1: first year the nil opened up. Nick Saban saw it
Speaker 1: and he got very nervous. I was told about Texas.
Speaker 1: He told his guys, we can't compete with Texas. That
Speaker 1: is oil money, it's tech money. Alabama cannot compete with Texas.
Speaker 2: He knew it.
Speaker 1: He sounded the alarms the first year. And if Saban,
Speaker 1: who's the smartest coach arguably in college football, he's certainly
Speaker 1: on a short list, saw it coming and he got
Speaker 1: the hell out. Nick could coach today if he wanted to.
Speaker 1: God the guy come. I look at him on TV.
Speaker 1: He's just so magnetic and dynamic. Nick's a sharp dude.
Speaker 1: He knows the truth is that George's got some money.
Speaker 1: Tennessee's got some money. I think the tide remember Washington's
Speaker 1: in Seattle. They don't have a huge collective, but Jedfish
Speaker 1: can recruit. Last year was a rebuilding year. They're going
Speaker 1: to be closer to Oregon than Iowa going forward. USC's
Speaker 1: can listen to this. USC's collective now is over twenty million.
Speaker 1: They've already spent thirty million over the next For the
Speaker 1: next eighteen months, they have to figure out how to
Speaker 1: pay all these bills. I think the SEC knows it.
Speaker 1: I think the smart people in that conference can see
Speaker 1: it before it's happened. But this year and last year
Speaker 1: watched the games. There is a game Notre Dame beat
Speaker 1: Georgia and control Georgia. They got far off the field
Speaker 1: tonight totally.
Speaker 2: I think listen, you and I and I turned into
Speaker 2: an SEC fan during the Saving era. Why was the
Speaker 2: best players, It was the best games. They still have
Speaker 2: the best talent. The reality now is when Kirby back
Speaker 2: in the day, Bobby Bowden, Dabo Sweeney, all the Southern
Speaker 2: coaches knocked on your door, you were going to go
Speaker 2: to one of those schools. Now they just call your
Speaker 2: agent and say, hey, they're offering your five hundred grand,
Speaker 2: will offer you eight to fifty and some sidecap. So
Speaker 2: you wanted to pay taxes on. It's not a fair fight,
Speaker 2: and that's what this has turned into. It is strictly
Speaker 2: paid to play. It's why I laugh, like forever a
Speaker 2: great recruiter. Obviously to become a great recruiter, you had
Speaker 2: to have a personality, but you also had to be
Speaker 2: at a program that offered you a lot. Right they might
Speaker 2: even could pay you a little under the table. Now
Speaker 2: there's we don't even you know, beat around the bush
Speaker 2: on that. It's like, no, a great recruiter is someone
Speaker 2: that can offer me eight hundred thousand dollars. I mean,
Speaker 2: the guy was the quarterback that was going to play
Speaker 2: for Brian Kelly Underwood. He was going to LSU and
Speaker 2: then he ended up at Michigan. Not because he loves
Speaker 2: Sharon Moore and Tom Brady and Dave Portnoy, because they
Speaker 2: paid him like twelve to fifteen million dollars. Even Brian
Speaker 2: Kelly's like, yeah, we can't pay him that much. We
Speaker 2: don't have the money. Look at Nebraska last year.
Speaker 1: Now Michigan States boosters. One of them is the guy
Speaker 1: that owns the Cavs. The other ones the guy that
Speaker 1: owns the Suns.
Speaker 2: So it's like this, it is going to be they
Speaker 2: got the talent, but these big tens. Rbit started years ago,
Speaker 2: right when he went from Florida to Ohio State said
Speaker 2: we got to get in the South and recruit the players.
Speaker 2: Well now everyone knows that, but they can just cut
Speaker 2: the check. So I'm going to be I think Texas,
Speaker 2: like you mentioned Saban, I didn't know that he said that,
Speaker 2: but I mean he's got ears eyes and a brain.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's not hard to figure out. I think
Speaker 2: A and M as well. I think the two Texas
Speaker 2: schools that are in the SEC have a massive advantage
Speaker 2: financially because that's the world we're in. Can you pay
Speaker 2: the players or not the most? That's where they're going
Speaker 2: to go.
Speaker 1: Look at this. I was talking to a during the
Speaker 1: course of this season. I was talking to a general
Speaker 1: manager and he said, let me tell you he's going
Speaker 1: to be number one next year. Take quarterbacks out. He goes,
Speaker 1: Caleb Downs is going to be number one next year.
Speaker 1: He goes, that kid would start for every single NFL
Speaker 1: team as a sophomore in college. He goes, there's not
Speaker 1: an NFL team he wouldn't start for. And then I
Speaker 1: texted him. That was mid season. I texted him before
Speaker 1: this game and he said, if because it's a very
Speaker 1: weak draft, he said, if Jeremiah Smith, the receiver for
Speaker 1: Ohio State, and Caleb Downs were available, He's like, these
Speaker 1: quarterbacks are not good enough. He goes, Cam would probably
Speaker 1: go over those players because Tennessee needs a quarterback. He said,
Speaker 1: would they go two and three? He's like, these kids
Speaker 1: are I mean, we watched Jeremiah Smith and and Caleb
Speaker 1: dew They don't even look like college players. It reminds
Speaker 1: me when Jamar Chase was at LSU, like a sophomore year,
Speaker 1: You're like, Okay, this is a pro receiver. Who would
Speaker 1: who would start? He would make he would start for
Speaker 1: every team in the NFL. The year before he went
Speaker 1: and left LSU.
Speaker 2: You could argue, I mean, what's really going to separate
Speaker 2: are the top five or six programs because of the money,
Speaker 2: And obviously Ohio State and Oregon are in clearly the
Speaker 2: top tier. Texas and I would throw Texas A and
Speaker 2: m in there. I mean they got a little taste
Speaker 2: of being back this year, of being good and being
Speaker 2: right there. They have unlimited money. That's that's the sport. Now,
Speaker 2: what happened to Michigan this shar year? They finally won
Speaker 2: a national championship. Then they started getting embarrassed and they said,
Speaker 2: what do you need? What do we need? We or
Speaker 2: don't want to do this ever again. So that's what
Speaker 2: And listen, I started at Fresno State, that program wouldn't
Speaker 2: have existed. I don't know how they maintain it. The
Speaker 2: Logan Mankins, the Ryan Matthews Washington State. How are they
Speaker 2: going to function moving forward? The moment you get a guy, yeah,
Speaker 2: that guy might be a third rounder, Oh he's a sophomore.
Speaker 2: Every school worth their salts in his DM saying hey,
Speaker 2: how much you want and they leave. They just automatically leave.
Speaker 2: What we saw last year with Austin Genty, I don't
Speaker 2: think we'll ever see again. Even the head coach this
Speaker 2: year said it. He's like, he turned down seven figures
Speaker 2: to stay here and all we could offer him was
Speaker 2: three hundred thousand dollars. I mean, that's that's the world.
Speaker 2: One day, I was at the gym, probably a couple
Speaker 2: months ago, and I look up and his first take
Speaker 2: is just on one of the big TVs and it's
Speaker 2: a kid, and I'm like, what's going on. I think
Speaker 2: Shannon and steven A were talking to him, and it's
Speaker 2: the number one basketball recruit. When I got home, I
Speaker 2: googled him. He's going to BYU next year. It's like,
Speaker 2: it's not hard to figure out the Mormons cut that
Speaker 2: get a massive check and that listen. I have no
Speaker 2: problem with that. I mean, that's in a weird way,
Speaker 2: That's what I would say. The sport has always been
Speaker 2: basketball and football. You know, financing the I got no
Speaker 2: problem with it, but that that is one hundred percent
Speaker 2: the world we're living in now, and it's really separating
Speaker 2: at the top. I mean, think about your guy Lane
Speaker 2: Ole miss this year, they break the bank and then
Speaker 2: they don't even make the playoffs. Are they less likely
Speaker 2: to keep breaking the bank when you don't have results? Yeah?
Speaker 1: And I and I also think this is coaches will
Speaker 1: get poached. You know, A prime example is John It's
Speaker 1: harder to fire a college basketball coach because he can
Speaker 1: go to his boosters as donors and his ad and go,
Speaker 1: I've made the tournament twelve straight years. Okay, you can't
Speaker 1: get rid of Sark. If Stark makes the playoff, and
Speaker 1: he will ten to the next eleven years, you're not
Speaker 1: going to get rid of him if he can win
Speaker 1: a game or two here and there. And my point
Speaker 1: being is, so these coaches now are going to make
Speaker 1: in enormous money, like better than NFL money for a
Speaker 1: lot of these guys. Can the SEC schools pay for that?
Speaker 1: I mean, let's just say tomorrow, let's say one of
Speaker 1: the coaches in the Big Ten doesn't work. Ryan Day's fine,
Speaker 1: Ryan Franklin's gone. I mean, most of the guys are fine.
Speaker 1: But let's say, for instance, a school goes and offers
Speaker 1: Lane Kiffen a job and in the Big ten they say,
Speaker 1: here's twelve million dollars. Can an sec school fund their
Speaker 1: collective and pay the football head coach, not the staff
Speaker 1: twenty million dollars? This is going to funnel down to
Speaker 1: the coaches? Is now a lot of these guys are
Speaker 1: suiting giving up for money. Colin Brian Kelly gave a
Speaker 1: million dollars to help fund the collective. Did you see
Speaker 1: that story?
Speaker 2: A couple like a month ago? He gave a million
Speaker 2: dollars of his own salary to the collective? Why because
Speaker 2: elis do you think you have to do that? Ohio State?
Speaker 2: But no, it's hard for him to say, I'm making
Speaker 2: nine and a half million dollars and the collective were
Speaker 2: a little short. And then you start getting heat. When
Speaker 2: Underwood goes to Michigan, It's like, well, I got to
Speaker 2: give in a little bit. That's that to me was
Speaker 2: a pretty big red flag for LSU. He had to
Speaker 2: give a million dollars of a sell.
Speaker 1: Well, if so, if you telling me that I didn't
Speaker 1: hear that story, so Saban saying, get me out of here.
Speaker 1: Brian Kelly giving up a million listen for years and
Speaker 1: years the SEC, and it was just it was just
Speaker 1: everybody knew it. They were paying kids through the churches.
Speaker 1: But I'm talking paying a kid one hundred thousand buck fifty.
Speaker 1: That is doesn't even I mean, it just doesn't even compete.
Speaker 1: And I think I'll just say it now. The SEC
Speaker 1: may never get worse than the second best conference, but
Speaker 1: if the Big Ten truly cares going forward, they will
Speaker 1: control college football going forward. And you know, for the record,
Speaker 1: Michigan won last year, Ohio State won this year. You
Speaker 1: see Penn State outside of Carter, and that tight end
Speaker 1: returns everybody Penn States and they're gonna be back.
Speaker 2: Drew Aller.
Speaker 1: Penn State next year loses a great tight end and
Speaker 1: a great then these are first round players. But Michigan
Speaker 1: next year, Washington, Ohio State, Oregon, Oregon's still really good.
Speaker 1: Like the Big Ten, this was a little bit of
Speaker 1: a down year. Let's be honest. Michigan in a rebuild,
Speaker 1: Washington to rebuild, Caleb william leaves USC in a rebuild,
Speaker 1: all those teams should be better next year.
Speaker 2: Well, the other thing is, and you mentioned Michigan State
Speaker 2: with their big boosters. I mean, I'm sure you agree.
Speaker 2: I think Jonathan Smith's a stud and this is the
Speaker 2: worst team He's gonna have coach in there so they
Speaker 2: will be better. I mean, he's a high level coach,
Speaker 2: Nebraska funneling and a bunch of money. I think the
Speaker 2: problem for the SEC is for about fifteen years in
Speaker 2: the saving era and when other teams would kind of
Speaker 2: match them, like LSU want to give a year obviously
Speaker 2: Georgia at the end, Clemson was basically, as my buddy
Speaker 2: Phil Savage used to tell me, they were an SEC
Speaker 2: in their heyday, an SEC school playing an ACC schedule.
Speaker 2: But they had SEC players, well, their backups right when
Speaker 2: you start training camp, and you don't know who, like
Speaker 2: at the time, a freshman or sophomore, who's gonna kind
Speaker 2: of separate. You just let them battle it out, and
Speaker 2: then the one guy that wins the job ends up
Speaker 2: being the first round pick, Well, his backup is still
Speaker 2: a fourth rounder. And if that guy gets injured, you know,
Speaker 2: in the seventh game of the season, your backup still
Speaker 2: a fourth rounder. Well, now that guy goes I'm out
Speaker 2: and all these other programs are lined up to take them,
Speaker 2: and he's like, well, I might as well make the
Speaker 2: same amount of money and go start then be a backup.
Speaker 2: That was their biggest advantage I always thought is they're
Speaker 2: too deep. Was the last like right at the beginning
Speaker 2: of the NIL, right before the NL, when Kirby was
Speaker 2: basically turned Georgia into Alabama, he went too deep with like,
Speaker 2: my first rounder is my starter and my backup is
Speaker 2: a second rounder. Good luck touching me. And you didn't. Well,
Speaker 2: we saw this year they were a shell of themselves
Speaker 2: and it's going to be difficult to just maintain that
Speaker 2: dominance because they do have the talent in the region.
Speaker 2: But these other schools just we got technology. Now can
Speaker 2: just send you the offer contract on docu sign. I
Speaker 2: was like, here's the money, buddy, you want to come
Speaker 2: And what do you think Their parents and agents are
Speaker 2: clearly saying, Ohio State's been doing it since Urban got there.
Speaker 2: But then Hardboss start getting involved. We know Oregon's going
Speaker 2: to keep funneling out of the SEC in the South. Really,
Speaker 2: Mario started that Penn State, Like the one thing you say,
Speaker 2: all those guys going back to Penn State. One thing
Speaker 2: James Franklin is is a great recruiter. Yeah, if you
Speaker 2: give him money, his energy and his effort. I do
Speaker 2: think Texas is going to run the SEC moving forward.
Speaker 1: So yeah, fans can say what they want. Bama is
Speaker 1: in big trouble. LSU is in big trouble. Big trouble
Speaker 1: Georgia because they're close to Atlanta. There's some big boosters there.
Speaker 1: But remember Atlanta's got the Braves, the Falcons. I mean,
Speaker 1: they've got you know that, They've got a lot of
Speaker 1: things happening in Atlanta. It's a very splintered market. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think we're.
Speaker 2: Talking when we stay trouble right the day of going
Speaker 2: twelve and zero and winning that is, you still might
Speaker 2: win eight nine games, but you're never going to be
Speaker 2: what probably we've seen in the past.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I don't even think. I mean, that's not
Speaker 1: even a take. That's not a hot take. I mean,
Speaker 1: the SEC, the days of running it are over, back
Speaker 1: to back years and again I'll say it again, Ohio
Speaker 1: State next year, Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downs, the two
Speaker 1: best players in the college football, likextup, are both back.
Speaker 1: And you know, I mean, and now you're going to
Speaker 1: how you think the recruiting is going to go transfer
Speaker 1: portal is going to go off this win. I mean
Speaker 1: the players, listen, man, those star players, they watch what
Speaker 1: Ohio State is tonight. It's a factory up there. Their
Speaker 1: role in it looks like Ryan Day and Chip Kelly.
Speaker 1: I mean, I thought the game plan tonight for Ohio
Speaker 1: State looked like a pro game plan. I mean the
Speaker 1: way if you watch the game plan tonight for Ohio State,
Speaker 1: those first two drives, it was so Chip Kelly. Let's
Speaker 1: build up, Will Howard's confidence, easy completions, get the ball
Speaker 1: to the playmaker. It was just I mean, I watched
Speaker 1: enough Chip Kelly games and I'm like, oh, this is
Speaker 1: a clinic. This is Chip Kelly who doesn't probably doesn't
Speaker 1: think Will Howard's an elite player. But within the system,
Speaker 1: he can get those twelve yard and in completions. He's accurate.
Speaker 1: Notre Dame never made Will Howard uncomfortable. I mean, and
Speaker 1: this is a beat up bowl line. I mean he was.
Speaker 1: Will Howard was sitting back there at one point, I
Speaker 1: don't know what he was six for six, seven for
Speaker 1: seven on third down. Notre Dame just couldn't make him uncomfortable.
Speaker 2: I would say this, if you've watched Chip Kelly since Oregon,
Speaker 2: if he's busting explosive runs, you got no shot. And
Speaker 2: the moment they start hitting big runs, you're in trouble.
Speaker 2: Especially with the firepower. They have to throw the ball,
Speaker 2: because then what are you gonna do? Stack the box
Speaker 2: and let them exploit you and say what you want
Speaker 2: about Will Howard, I questioned it coming into this playoff
Speaker 2: run Colin in the first half he was fourteen to
Speaker 2: fifteen for two touchdowns and he's just you remove the
Speaker 2: Texas game, which was difficult just endeavor for him, given
Speaker 2: how good Texas is on defense. He was dominant in
Speaker 2: the three matches against Tennessee, which has NFL personnel on defense. Obviously,
Speaker 2: Oregon is loaded with NFL players, and tonight just National
Speaker 2: Championship Notre Dame to come out. He's played. Really, he's
Speaker 2: made himself some money. I'm not saying he's gonna get
Speaker 2: drafted in the second day, but I think he's got
Speaker 2: to get a drafted in the somewhere between the fourth
Speaker 2: and the sixth round.
Speaker 1: First of all, I think the kid at Syracuse, Kyle
Speaker 1: McCord and Will Howard are going to get drafted late third, fourth,
Speaker 1: early fifth round. But both big, strong, sturdy kids who
Speaker 1: throw a nice ball with velocity.
Speaker 2: They'll think I think McCord if he has a good
Speaker 2: you know this post season before the draft process, could
Speaker 2: go on the second day of the draft. Or I
Speaker 2: think Will Howard just because he throws more of a
Speaker 2: pure ball.
Speaker 1: Just I looked at him on YouTube today.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know how these quarterback coaches are, these
Speaker 2: offensive coordinators are they when you're just sitting out there.
Speaker 2: I think there's just an element to Will Howard and
Speaker 2: I would say the same about Riley Leonard. They're just
Speaker 2: kind of good football players. I don't know how good
Speaker 2: they would look just in a just shorts T shirts,
Speaker 2: throwing routes on air in front of the head coach.
Speaker 2: I mean, they're not exactly throwing it like Josh Allen
Speaker 2: out there. And they're good runners, but they're not running.
Speaker 2: You know what Riley Leonard does and it's fun to watch.
Speaker 2: Is that does that translate to the NFL? Just running
Speaker 2: over guys? That's hard and that's that's but he listen,
Speaker 2: he grew on me over this run. He's clearly the
Speaker 2: high level guy and I think both of them are
Speaker 2: going to be loved by once the coaches get into
Speaker 2: the draft process, because they're clearly like just high level kids.
Speaker 1: Chad Millman, co host of the Favorites Sharper Square. All
Speaker 1: odds provided by DraftKings. So I had a rare I
Speaker 1: don't think I had an undefeated this year three and
Speaker 1: ozero last week. And I think it's actually easier in
Speaker 1: the playoffs. I've had back to back weeks because the
Speaker 1: quarterbacks are all you know, it's sudden death, it's the
Speaker 1: best quarterbacks. It's going to start with this before we
Speaker 1: start with anything. You know, there's this sense that, you know,
Speaker 1: Kansas City, Jason McIntyre's on this thing about the calls
Speaker 1: going a certain way, and I always point back, Kansas
Speaker 1: City's gotten the benefit of the calls. Well, my argument is,
Speaker 1: we all know coaching matters more in football than managing
Speaker 1: in baseball or coaching in basketball. We know coaching college
Speaker 1: or pro. We've seen Jim Harbaugh take over the worst
Speaker 1: defense make it the best. Coaching matters in football more
Speaker 1: than other sports. You have like a phone book that
Speaker 1: offensive players have to memorize, and system scheme, culture building.
Speaker 1: And I remember when I lived in Connecticut watching all
Speaker 1: the Patriot games, and I can remember watching for years
Speaker 1: and it just popping into my head when they were
Speaker 1: playing a team team fumbled. I'm like, God, I don't
Speaker 1: think the Patriots have fumbled since Thanksgiving. And you went
Speaker 1: back and looked and they literally were the team in
Speaker 1: the league that didn't fumble. And I'd asked Patriot players
Speaker 1: about this, They're like, oh, yeah, Bill would not let
Speaker 1: you stretch for extra yards. That was a fine, that
Speaker 1: was a suspension. You could only do it if it
Speaker 1: was fourth down in the ends. Otherwise you were not
Speaker 1: allowed to stretch. And I look at the Chiefs and
Speaker 1: I say to myself, really good coaches are really good teachers,
Speaker 1: and you can teach your way out of penalties with
Speaker 1: good communication, thorough repetition. Damian Woody always told me Patriot
Speaker 1: practice was different than every other practice has Detroit his
Speaker 1: Jets practices. So what your take on the Chiefs get
Speaker 1: all the calls, because if you go back and look
Speaker 1: at the penalties during the New England era, they were
Speaker 1: last penalies as well.
Speaker 2: I think it's bullshit.
Speaker 4: I think it's a media can instructed argument because people
Speaker 4: are looking for reasons as to why the Chiefs keep
Speaker 4: winning other than they have a generationally great quarterback, a
Speaker 4: generationally if not historically great coach. Our mutual friend Ryan
Speaker 4: Rosillo had a great stat on his podcast the other day.
Speaker 4: The past two years, Kansas City opponents have been flagged
Speaker 4: for forty eight penalties in the fourth quarter and ot
Speaker 4: of one score games. Colin, how many have the Chiefs
Speaker 4: had in the same period, twelve forty seven. So let's
Speaker 4: not get off. Okay, Well, you have in the Chiefs
Speaker 4: are a coach who has found the perfect cheak code
Speaker 4: for his ski. He's got a guy who is ultra competitive,
Speaker 4: who can make magical plays. Who, by the way, as
Speaker 4: Tom Brady pointed out on your show, having to defend
Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes for four downs in the playoffs is just
Speaker 4: so freaking hard. You don't get to seven conference championship
Speaker 4: games because people are calling penalties against the opponents more often.
Speaker 4: Ask Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson has two MVPs. He might
Speaker 4: get a third, He should get a third. How many
Speaker 4: AFC title games has he played in? How many Super
Speaker 4: Bowls has he played in? He is as brilliant an
Speaker 4: athlete and as brilliant a quarterback as there is in
Speaker 4: the NFL. He's not getting there. Patrick Mahomes and the
Speaker 4: Chiefs do something different, and I think it's in the
Speaker 4: head of every single team they play.
Speaker 1: Well, let's start off with the Commanders and the Eagles.
Speaker 1: I'm going to take Philadelphia minus six. I'm also going
Speaker 1: to take the over. I do think they've played twice.
Speaker 1: Philadelphia should have won twice, but Jalen got hurt, Kenny
Speaker 1: Pickett came in. So I think the number I look
Speaker 1: at over two games is average yards per carry, and
Speaker 1: it's five and a half yards for Philadelphia. Well, that's
Speaker 1: just that's a physical mismatch. The O line for Philadelphia
Speaker 1: is almost better to a man than the D line
Speaker 1: for Washington. That's not going to change. That's not scheme.
Speaker 1: The guards for Philadelphia are like six seven and a half,
Speaker 1: it's like the biggest guards in league history are four.
Speaker 1: Of Their offensive linemen are like arguably the best in
Speaker 1: the NFL at their position. So they will run the
Speaker 1: ball and they will move the ball. But I do
Speaker 1: think the Commanders will have to score and know what
Speaker 1: going in, so they'll take chances. They'll do some four
Speaker 1: down stuff, so My take is it's a fairly high
Speaker 1: scoring game, which makes me more comfortable laying the six
Speaker 1: with Philadelphia sharper score.
Speaker 4: So it was sharp at four and a half, it's
Speaker 4: gotten to six. It actually got up to six and
Speaker 4: a half, and wise guys have been buying back and
Speaker 4: in a lot of the conversations I've had this week,
Speaker 4: and Simon Hunter and I talked about this on the
Speaker 4: Favorites today when we sort of bring in the feedback
Speaker 4: from professional betters, they were liking Washington and it honestly
Speaker 4: doesn't make sense to me or to Simon and apparently
Speaker 4: to you either. Last week people were coming in and
Speaker 4: they were hammering the Rams. I loved the Eagles all
Speaker 4: week and if not for Jake Elliott missing a couple
Speaker 4: extra points, that game is not a push, it's a
Speaker 4: cover for the Eagles. Same thing this week. I don't
Speaker 4: get it. I feel like there's so much recency bias
Speaker 4: in relation to Jaden Daniels and both of these games. Weirdly,
Speaker 4: there is so much public support for the road underdogs
Speaker 4: against the higher seeds because of the status of the
Speaker 4: quarterbacks and the seasons there having Josh Allen is having
Speaker 4: a better year than Patrick Mahomes, Jane Daniels having a
Speaker 4: better year than Jalen Hurts. But people are forgetting that
Speaker 4: this Eagles team is not built around Jalen Hurts, right,
Speaker 4: It's built around Saquon Barkley. And one of the things
Speaker 4: that I tried to unpack this week when I was
Speaker 4: thinking about this game is the Eagles win so often
Speaker 4: with explosive plays. We saw this past weekend two huge
Speaker 4: runs from Barkley, a great run from Hurtz. That's how
Speaker 4: they're scoring touchdowns right. Earlier in the season in November
Speaker 4: in Philadelphia against the Commanders, the Eagles were losing most
Speaker 4: of that game. I was at that game. They won
Speaker 4: that game because Saquon Bardley had two long touchdown runs.
Speaker 4: So you think about explosive play as well. Is that random?
Speaker 4: Can you predict it? I think is more random when
Speaker 4: it's quarterbacks throwing long touchdown passes with the circumstances have
Speaker 4: to be perfect. It's less random when it's your running
Speaker 4: back who has an offensive line that is as dominant
Speaker 4: as you.
Speaker 2: Just talked about.
Speaker 4: Who's by the way, his rushing prope is one hundred
Speaker 4: north of one hundred and thirty yards, which DraftKings has
Speaker 4: announced is the highest total they've ever had for a
Speaker 4: rushing prop in the years that they've been doing business.
Speaker 4: So I'm with you, man, I like the Eagles. I
Speaker 4: think it's the right spot. I think they're the better team.
Speaker 4: I tend to favor the dominant, physical team.
Speaker 1: So yeah, is there a prop you could give our
Speaker 1: audience that you like? I like the over in this game,
Speaker 1: but a prop.
Speaker 4: You zach Ertz over three and a half receptions. I
Speaker 4: think that the Eagles defensively on the edges at cornerback
Speaker 4: Quinnyon Mitchell is supposed to play. We already know about
Speaker 4: Cooper Degene and the slot Darius Slayh obviously. On the
Speaker 4: other side, that's where Jaden Daniels, who was already predisposed
Speaker 4: to wanting to go to zach Ertz if Terry McLaurin
Speaker 4: isn't available, isn't open. I think that that's where the
Speaker 4: offensive opportunities are going to be. So zach Ertz over
Speaker 4: three and a half.
Speaker 1: You know, it's interesting I was talking on the show
Speaker 1: today ten years ago pay Manning, big Ben and Brady,
Speaker 1: where these iconic legends past their prime. In fact, Peyton
Speaker 1: was in Denver, But I remember thinking at the time,
Speaker 1: she's what is the league gonna do? What is the
Speaker 1: league gonna do? And now we've got Lamar, Mahomes, Allen
Speaker 1: and Throwing Burrow. But in the NFC ten quarterbacks in
Speaker 1: the last ten Super Bowl appearances for NFC teams, it's
Speaker 1: a lot of rotational quarterbacks. That's why it almost feels
Speaker 1: like Jayden Daniels has a shot. Hurts would be the
Speaker 1: second time for him, So I do. I said this
Speaker 1: today as I watched Jaden Daniels, and I feel like
Speaker 1: the NFC got their Mahomes that everybody will they'll be
Speaker 1: tailing Washington going forward. I don't think it's a particularly
Speaker 1: warm take. I feel like he is either Lamar or Mahomes.
Speaker 1: But the NFC has had this sort of goff an
Speaker 1: Older Stafford, a prickly Aaron Russell, Wilson, aging Kyler. Murray's talented,
Speaker 1: but there's just been a lot of these qualifiers and
Speaker 1: they haven't had their no issues, low maintenance, high thrower,
Speaker 1: good mover. I think he's the Mahomes of the NFC.
Speaker 4: What's really going to be interesting. I agree with everything
Speaker 4: you said. What's going to be interesting is next year.
Speaker 4: Next year, the Commanders are already sixteen to one to
Speaker 4: win the Super Bowl. That feels very aggressive. Weren't we
Speaker 4: saying the same things about c J. Stroud exactly a
Speaker 4: year ago? And did c J. Stroud not come back
Speaker 4: down to earth that defenses not spend an off season
Speaker 4: figuring out that he's not great against certain defenses, that
Speaker 4: it's going to be challenging for him to succeed at
Speaker 4: the level that he did in his rookie year and
Speaker 4: he didn't. Not saying he's not great, not saying he's
Speaker 4: going to be great. But of all the great quarterbacks
Speaker 4: you just mentioned when the season began, c J. Stroud
Speaker 4: was on that list. Now he's not. So next year
Speaker 4: is there going to be an opportunity to fade the Commanders?
Speaker 4: Like in reality, the Commander should probably be seven seven
Speaker 4: and a half point underdogs in this game. The Eagles
Speaker 4: are dominant physically on the defensive side of the ball
Speaker 4: and on the offensive side of the ball. The Commanders
Speaker 4: are not going to have their right guard Sam Cosmy,
Speaker 4: who's their best offensive lineman. The eagles best defensive lineman
Speaker 4: is Jalen Carter, And normally you're not going to worry
Speaker 4: about a right guard being out as being a challenge
Speaker 4: for your pass protection. But when Jalen Carter is rushing
Speaker 4: up the middle, your right guard might be the guy
Speaker 4: who needs to grab a piece of him every once
Speaker 4: in a while. You're now not going to have a guy,
Speaker 4: and so all of a sudden these things change. You're
Speaker 4: already getting the benefit. I think of Jaden Daniels being
Speaker 4: someone who people believe is a cheat code, and they're
Speaker 4: overvaluing that in the scope of the entire game.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I will say though, that CJ. Stroud didn't have
Speaker 1: the mobility edge, which I've always thought mobility's best for
Speaker 1: a quarterback in the first two years because as you're
Speaker 1: learning NFL coverages and waiting for the light to go on,
Speaker 1: you can just pick up first downs moving, whereas c J.
Speaker 1: Stroud is going to pick up first downs throwing, and
Speaker 1: so he is much more susceptible. As coverages get more sophisticated,
Speaker 1: you face better teams. He had injuries on the O line.
Speaker 1: They didn't have protection. I think running quarterbacks Lamar he
Speaker 1: never really dipped mahomes Allen. They just kept getting better.
Speaker 2: Goff was.
Speaker 1: Beholden to how good his O line was, yeah, you know, bad,
Speaker 1: Whitworth's good, Whitworth leaves not as good, or around that
Speaker 1: time when Whitworth was aging, and then he goes to Detroit,
Speaker 1: not good. Early line got better, He's better. So I
Speaker 1: think I think Jayden, I think CJ. Stroud's NFL comp
Speaker 1: was golf, and like golf, he deteriorates with really bad
Speaker 1: line play significantly, whereas I think Jaden is Lamar and
Speaker 1: Mahomes where it's just ascension because he moves the chains
Speaker 1: while he's figuring out defenses and it takes about even
Speaker 1: Mahomes said it was the beginning of year three when
Speaker 1: everything just sort of slowed down. So I don't think
Speaker 1: I think he's I think we're really looking at something specially.
Speaker 4: I don't disagree. I think the guy is a brilliant player,
Speaker 4: and I think it's more evidence that you want to
Speaker 4: get quarterbacks who have a lot of experience playing in college,
Speaker 4: who've taken a lot of snaps, who've played a lot
Speaker 4: of games. That's always been a threshold for GMS and
Speaker 4: coaches who are looking to draft quarterbacks. I remember when
Speaker 4: Philip Rivers came out, he had played so many games
Speaker 4: in college people didn't really know who he was at
Speaker 4: NC State. I know I'm throwing a name out there
Speaker 4: from like twenty five years ago, but I remember this
Speaker 4: so clearly. I was at ESPN the Mat magazine, and
Speaker 4: we were doing a draft issue, and it was the
Speaker 4: first time I ever heard a scout talk about the
Speaker 4: importance of seeing quarterbacks on tape with a lot of
Speaker 4: games as they get older. And we're seeing that with
Speaker 4: Jadeen Daniels, Like his experience level keeps him from being
Speaker 4: really frightened in these experiences because he's so much older
Speaker 4: than the average quarterback coming out, and he's had so
Speaker 4: many more snaps, and he understands the rhythm of the
Speaker 4: game and understands the moment a little bit better in
Speaker 4: addition to his unbelievable talent. But I can guarantee you
Speaker 4: right now we can set a number on it. The
Speaker 4: number of times will set it at seven and a
Speaker 4: half at this time next year. How many times over
Speaker 4: the course of Sharper Square have I said to you, well,
Speaker 4: the commanders are overvalued here because Jaden Daniels is getting
Speaker 4: too much credit and too much attention. I guarantee you
Speaker 4: I'm going to say that an every other week basis
Speaker 4: to you on this show.
Speaker 1: Show Let's go AFC. I'm riding with the Bills. I
Speaker 1: have for the last month. I feel they're the best
Speaker 1: team in football. The Rams had to play a perfect
Speaker 1: game at home to slip by in the Rams, I
Speaker 1: think we're a very good team at the end. I'll
Speaker 1: take the one and a half again. I think there's
Speaker 1: going to be points scored. I think there's limitations on
Speaker 1: stopping Allan and Mahomes. I think you get into these games.
Speaker 1: Coaches are more willing. Brady and Andy Reid are more
Speaker 1: willing to take risks. It's sudden death. You empty the
Speaker 1: playbook because you have two weeks to prepare for the
Speaker 1: Super Bowl, So just empty the playbook. I'd take the
Speaker 1: over forty seven and a half Bills plus one and
Speaker 1: a half. I can absolutely see Kansas City winning. I
Speaker 1: think this is the best version of Buffalo for two reasons. One,
Speaker 1: they do not turn it over, they're not heavily penalized,
Speaker 1: and you can't get to Josh Allen. They're the mature version,
Speaker 1: which Baltimore hasn't become yet with Lamar. They're still, like
Speaker 1: I said this before, Buffalo's always been a Ferrari with
Speaker 1: Josh Allen. They just no longer at speeding tickets. They
Speaker 1: don't make the mistakes, they don't get caught like they
Speaker 1: slow down in front of the cops. So they have
Speaker 1: all the talent, but they don't have that sort of
Speaker 1: in Baltimore's trying to work theirself out of this. That's
Speaker 1: sort of like, we can't slow down. We just we
Speaker 1: go one hundred miles an hour. So I think they've
Speaker 1: become they become the Chiefs, and I think eventually they're
Speaker 1: going to beat the Chiefs, which they have in the
Speaker 1: regular season. Sharper square bills plus the point sharp ish.
Speaker 4: It's been an interesting number. It opened at one and
Speaker 4: a half, and even though the majority of the money,
Speaker 4: which indicates professional betters like the bills, and the majority
Speaker 4: of the tickets, which also indicates the public likes the bills,
Speaker 4: it's kind of stuck at one and a half. In fact,
Speaker 4: there's been a little bit of sort of juice movement,
Speaker 4: meaning they're making it more expensive to bet the one
Speaker 4: and a half on the Chiefs because they want you
Speaker 4: to take the one and a half because pretty soon
Speaker 4: they're going to go to two. I think that you're
Speaker 4: on the professional side, not in a dominant way. I'm
Speaker 4: gonna play devil's advocate. Everything you're saying is right. Josh
Speaker 4: Allen gets out of the pocket. To me, he's as
Speaker 4: frightening as and frustrating as Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes,
Speaker 4: and their running game this year has been so freaking good.
Speaker 4: They played the number one team in defensive rush success
Speaker 4: rate in the Broncos and rush them on the ground.
Speaker 4: They played the number two team in defensive rush success
Speaker 4: rate in the Ravens, and crush them on the ground.
Speaker 4: The Chiefs are not nearly as good at defending the
Speaker 4: run as either the Ravens or the Broncos. And they're
Speaker 4: going to have to figure out how to manage Josh
Speaker 4: Allen when it's third and one or fourth and one,
Speaker 4: who's clearly unstoppable. How they're going to have to manage
Speaker 4: James Cook. All that is true. Zero evidence colin that
Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes is going to lose this game. Zero like
Speaker 4: in November on in games where the weather is forty
Speaker 4: degrees or less, twenty three and two in his career.
Speaker 4: The last loss was to Tom Brady in twenty nineteen.
Speaker 4: He's won twenty in a row Andy Reid with Mahomes
Speaker 4: with an extra day of rest, just one extra day
Speaker 4: of rest, which he has twenty and three, fourteen and
Speaker 4: one at home. Like, It's just why would I want
Speaker 4: to do this? I've been given every opportunity to bet
Speaker 4: the Chiefs as a.
Speaker 2: Short home dog.
Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes seven straight AFC title games, three Super Bowls
Speaker 4: in the past five years, going for third in a row.
Speaker 4: He is going to challenge Tom Brady as the greatest
Speaker 4: quarterback who's ever played, and he might do it before
Speaker 4: he's thirty two years old? Like what am I doing here?
Speaker 4: Why would I bet against Patrick Mahomes. I had a
Speaker 4: buddy call the other day and tell me I'm all
Speaker 4: over the bills. I'm like why and why would you
Speaker 4: do that? With confidence? Like you just can't. It's it's hard.
Speaker 4: I get it. I'm afraid of it. But there's no
Speaker 4: way I'm betting against Patrick Mahomes. There is no way.
Speaker 4: But yeah, I like the OVERTWO.
Speaker 1: So I saw a story this week and apparently sometimes
Speaker 1: in the media, well I think media people like to
Speaker 1: be viewed as smart and they try to figure stuff out.
Speaker 1: I'm guilty of this. I'm always trying to figure out
Speaker 1: theories or why, and sometimes the answer is always the
Speaker 1: simple answer. So I saw a story this week and
Speaker 1: it just made me laugh where the college football game
Speaker 1: was down three million viewers and everybody was flummixed, and
Speaker 1: I'm like, guys, men like Trump statistically in this election.
Speaker 1: Young men love Trump, young men love football. Inauguration Day
Speaker 1: was Monday, that's the day of the National Championship, and
Speaker 1: so the number was down about three million viewers, especially
Speaker 1: when Notre Dame fell behind thirty one to seven. That's
Speaker 1: the answer, right, Like, it wasn't that we hate Ohio
Speaker 1: State and Notre Dame. It was every four years in
Speaker 1: inauguration with a polarizing Trump, who, for the record, does
Speaker 1: very well in this election with young men.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I saw the numbers too.
Speaker 4: It's so funny you say that, because I saw the
Speaker 4: numbers this morning and I saw a story, just a line,
Speaker 4: you know, down whatever percent it was ten percent or whatever,
Speaker 4: it was, right, twelve percent.
Speaker 2: And as soon as.
Speaker 4: I clicked out, and I'm like, someone's going to try
Speaker 4: to explain why this is. This isn't rocket science trying
Speaker 4: to find patterns when you do year over year comps.
Speaker 4: You can do year over comps, year over year comps
Speaker 4: with every podcast in the Volume network. You can do
Speaker 4: it with your show. The circumstances are always different. We
Speaker 4: do this at Action all the time too. How come
Speaker 4: this Monday night game is down from the year before? Well,
Speaker 4: who was the matchup? Was it a game where you
Speaker 4: had Was it a night where you had two Monday
Speaker 4: night games play being played instead of one? Because when
Speaker 4: you have two Monday night games, traffic sometimes dips a
Speaker 4: little bit because attention is diverted and games start a
Speaker 4: little bit earlier, so people aren't online as early. Like,
Speaker 4: there's so many easy to unpack answers to so many
Speaker 4: of the questions that are asked in sports. It's phenomenal.
Speaker 4: We try to make it as complicated as we do.
Speaker 4: And to your point about politics mixing with sports and
Speaker 4: impacting sports. Two years ago, ninety three of the top
Speaker 4: one hundred broadcasts in the United States were sports. This
Speaker 4: past year in twenty twenty four, eighty one of the
Speaker 4: top one hundred. Do you know why, because there were
Speaker 4: so many debates and so many political events that were
Speaker 4: leading the coverage that we're getting so many more viewers,
Speaker 4: so of course there's going to be changes on a
Speaker 4: year to year basis because of the overall world and
Speaker 4: what's happening, not because of anything about myopically what we
Speaker 4: think of Ohio State or Notre Dame.
Speaker 1: Well, I had, I have. I worked in local TV
Speaker 1: for over a decade, and so I still you know,
Speaker 1: I still have friends in local TV. Not as many.
Speaker 1: Many have retired or dodd or things or moved on.
Speaker 1: But you know, it's like you're going to notice over
Speaker 1: the next ten years there'll be a little bit of
Speaker 1: renaissance in local TV ratings. Why because of climate change
Speaker 1: and whenever you have severe weather or disasters. Local reporters
Speaker 1: are better than national reporters. They've built trust for the
Speaker 1: audience and they know the terrain. A Dallas reporter, a Chicago, Minneapolis,
Speaker 1: Los Angeles, New York reporter. If something happened to the
Speaker 1: Brooklyn Bridge forgets CNN. I'm watching the local guys, right.
Speaker 1: So LA local news ratings went up four hundred percent
Speaker 1: over the last two weeks. And I watched the coverage.
Speaker 1: It was significantly better than CNN. And it's not a
Speaker 1: political It was significantly better than all national coverage because
Speaker 1: the local reporters. They all live in these towns and
Speaker 1: they knew They just know the topography and the canyons
Speaker 1: and the history, and so you know, it's you're gonna
Speaker 1: watch local TV ratings and you can call it whatever
Speaker 1: you want. But we're just getting more severe weather. It
Speaker 1: snowed in Pensacola, have a foot whatever, La had a
Speaker 1: blizzard two years ago, whatever. So yeah, I think most
Speaker 1: of the stuff is fairly explainable. So when local TV
Speaker 1: ratings have a renaissance here in the next decade, that's
Speaker 1: mostly what it's going to be.
Speaker 4: I love that you talk about the weather component of it,
Speaker 4: because those are the only people I remember growing up
Speaker 4: when I watched local TV, and even here in West
Speaker 4: Hertford where you used to live, like Stacy and I,
Speaker 4: my wife and I, we love the local weather guy.
Speaker 4: And I love the local weather guy because he knows
Speaker 4: our town and he knows all the towns around us,
Speaker 4: and he knows the difference between here we're in a valley. Here,
Speaker 4: you're a little bit on a hill, so it's going
Speaker 4: to be a little bit colder here in the morning,
Speaker 4: you might have a little more frost. I live by
Speaker 4: what this guy says and I completely connect with what
Speaker 4: you're saying. What's actually frightening. I don't know if you
Speaker 4: saw it this week, but there is one broadcast that
Speaker 4: owns a lot of local stations that is letting go
Speaker 4: of all their local weather people and having a singular
Speaker 4: sort of source of weather information and segments that is
Speaker 4: then being distributed out to the local channels. It's sort
Speaker 4: of like the single service provider within an organization, which
Speaker 4: is idiotic.
Speaker 1: That is the opposite of what I would do over
Speaker 1: the next ten years. Get rid of the local sports guys,
Speaker 1: love them to death, but everybody's watching some other platform.
Speaker 1: I want massive weather people locally for the next decade,
Speaker 1: whatever you want to call it. We're just getting more
Speaker 1: combustible weather, hot, cold, wind, rain, whatever.
Speaker 2: It makes no sense.
Speaker 4: I saw it. I'm like, the one thing people care
Speaker 4: about is weather. It's the only thing people are checking
Speaker 4: for in the morning, Like that is what can save
Speaker 4: local television. And you're going out there, you're firing all
Speaker 4: the weather people. So it made zero sense to me.
Speaker 2: Zero.
Speaker 1: Sometimes I wish sometimes I wish I was a billionaire,
Speaker 1: not because I'd buy a bunch of stuff, because I've
Speaker 1: never had a second car. I'm not a boat guy.
Speaker 1: I'm not a jewelry guy or a watch guy. I'm
Speaker 1: not a collector. I'm really not.
Speaker 2: I don't care.
Speaker 1: But there are things I would like. Things I would
Speaker 1: like to do in society they can't afford to do.
Speaker 1: Like I'll be honest with you, when Fox created a
Speaker 1: weather channel, I wish I could have been the CEO
Speaker 1: of Fox's Weather Channel. I would have loved that job.
Speaker 1: And if it paid what I make and I can
Speaker 1: still make my mortgage, I was I've always wanted like
Speaker 1: Byron Allen, the former comedian who became a wildly successful entrepreneur,
Speaker 1: bought the Weather Channel, and I think it's the only
Speaker 1: time I've ever been jealous of another member of the
Speaker 1: American media. Was Byron Allen bought the Weather Channel, and
Speaker 1: I'm like, damn it.
Speaker 4: By the way, it might be Byron Allen who fired
Speaker 4: off a local weather people because he wants all the
Speaker 4: weather to come from the Weather Channel.
Speaker 2: Like that.
Speaker 1: All I know that is forget Oprah. That's the most
Speaker 1: successful local media person in the history of our business.
Speaker 1: He's the one guy I'm jealous of.
Speaker 4: I'm just checking right now. Yeah, Alan Media Group replaces meteorologists,
Speaker 4: dozens of meteorologists with pre recorded feats.
Speaker 2: So I don't know.
Speaker 4: I think we've got to call brought Byron and we
Speaker 4: got to tell him we think this is a bad idea.
Speaker 4: And we are very respected and admired members of the media.
Speaker 2: The volume