1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 2: Brief nowt by one of the great optimists, Jeffrey Cleveland 7 00:00:29,920 --> 00:00:33,599 Speaker 2: is Director, chief economist paidon ragel Out and Los Angeles. 8 00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:36,400 Speaker 3: Surely good briefst this morning. We get perspective. 9 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:38,600 Speaker 2: He's had time to digest some of the data. Jeffrey 10 00:00:38,600 --> 00:00:42,320 Speaker 2: Cleveland with us with Peydon and Regal. Jeffrey, I'm looking 11 00:00:42,360 --> 00:00:45,800 Speaker 2: at the market and it sort of says rate cut. 12 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:47,840 Speaker 3: Tilt in place? Do I have that right? 13 00:00:48,040 --> 00:00:51,199 Speaker 4: I think the biggest thing I noticed here is August 14 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:55,440 Speaker 4: was slightly negative after revisions, so you had some downward revisions. 15 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 4: The three month average is still pretty meager, sixty two 16 00:00:59,840 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 4: thousand or so, and the direction of travel on the 17 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:05,200 Speaker 4: unemployment rate it appears to be going higher. So we're 18 00:01:05,200 --> 00:01:08,440 Speaker 4: now four point four I think, headed to four point 19 00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:11,600 Speaker 4: five four point six, So I think this does keep 20 00:01:11,640 --> 00:01:13,960 Speaker 4: the possibility of a rate cut definitely on the table. 21 00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:16,920 Speaker 4: You see that reaction initially in the bond market, particularly 22 00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:17,560 Speaker 4: in the front end. 23 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:19,120 Speaker 5: But that's the initial read. 24 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 2: And Paul, the single statistic here, which Cleveland of course 25 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:26,720 Speaker 2: alludes to, is a survey on changing non firm payrolls 26 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 2: for August just twenty two thousand. 27 00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:32,000 Speaker 3: The reality rather and it's a negative statistic. 28 00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:34,840 Speaker 2: It's a negative four thousand on a revision on the 29 00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:35,880 Speaker 2: August report. 30 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:38,720 Speaker 3: That's emotional. That negative number is emotional. 31 00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:39,360 Speaker 5: Absolutely. 32 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:42,560 Speaker 6: How about on the looking at the wage market here, Jeffrey, 33 00:01:43,160 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 6: you know, on an annualized the basis average annually earnings 34 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:49,800 Speaker 6: up about three point eight percent. That holds pretty steady. 35 00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:52,920 Speaker 6: So if you've got a job, you're getting paid for it. 36 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:58,000 Speaker 6: It seems like, yeah, I think that's the positive take here. 37 00:01:58,240 --> 00:01:59,040 Speaker 5: You still have some. 38 00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:02,520 Speaker 4: Modest payroll growth on the three month average, you still 39 00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:06,960 Speaker 4: have wage growth, so overall aggregate income, the consumer still 40 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 4: has some spending wear withal. 41 00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 5: So this is not a doom and gloom type scenario. 42 00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:12,560 Speaker 5: Sorry for the bears out there. 43 00:02:12,919 --> 00:02:16,480 Speaker 4: It's going to create a little more uncertainty over the 44 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:18,840 Speaker 4: next few months as we continue to digest this, but 45 00:02:18,880 --> 00:02:20,400 Speaker 4: it's not a you know. 46 00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:23,799 Speaker 5: Slam dunk data of report that points to a recession. 47 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:25,640 Speaker 6: Yeah, so what do you think, what are some of 48 00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:28,639 Speaker 6: the real time data telling you about kind of kind 49 00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:32,080 Speaker 6: of where we are today with the labor market. Is 50 00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 6: this number reflective or is it just a little bit No. 51 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:37,120 Speaker 4: I think we do think that all the signs that 52 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 4: we've seen through October November data would point to a 53 00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:43,320 Speaker 4: higher unemployment rate than four point four, So you know, 54 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:45,800 Speaker 4: something like four point five four point six would make sense. 55 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:48,839 Speaker 4: So that's that's a bit of a concern. I think 56 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:51,960 Speaker 4: also the layoff announcements that we've seen that's caught, that's 57 00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:55,600 Speaker 4: you know, definitely captured our attention. So it's very bond 58 00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:58,440 Speaker 4: bullish environment. You know, government bond yields probably on a 59 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:01,520 Speaker 4: twelve month horizon or or quite a bit lower if 60 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:01,919 Speaker 4: we're right. 61 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:05,880 Speaker 2: I let Jeffrey Cleveland at this, and I've alluded to 62 00:03:05,919 --> 00:03:07,959 Speaker 2: this with a couple of conversations this morning. 63 00:03:08,480 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 3: And you know, I'm sorry, folks, this goes back to 64 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:15,120 Speaker 3: what you study at Claremont in school, you know what 65 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:15,400 Speaker 3: I mean. 66 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:17,000 Speaker 5: Wow, But it's a. 67 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:22,160 Speaker 2: History, Jeffrey, how fed ignore a fragile labor economy. I 68 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:26,519 Speaker 2: get the inflation, this inflation that fancy mathematics and all that, 69 00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:29,120 Speaker 2: But the fact is the labor. 70 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:32,120 Speaker 3: Economies a bit fragile. That's got to be top of 71 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:34,960 Speaker 3: top of list, I think so. 72 00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:37,240 Speaker 5: But you know what, what does history tell us about 73 00:03:37,240 --> 00:03:37,560 Speaker 5: the FED? 74 00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:41,400 Speaker 4: Usually they're reactive, not proactive, right, So there is a 75 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:43,360 Speaker 4: you know, an inertia factor if you will, or a 76 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:46,280 Speaker 4: lag between when we think we see something in the 77 00:03:46,320 --> 00:03:48,960 Speaker 4: data and policy makers take action. We definitely saw that 78 00:03:49,040 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 4: in twenty one. In twenty two, I think the FED 79 00:03:51,320 --> 00:03:53,520 Speaker 4: was behind the curve there, So it wouldn't surprise me 80 00:03:53,560 --> 00:03:55,280 Speaker 4: if they were a little little sluggish. 81 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:56,440 Speaker 5: They're also different. 82 00:03:56,280 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 4: Opinions, Tom, I mean when I talk to clients all year, 83 00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 4: it's been employedation. If you if you are able to 84 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:06,040 Speaker 4: push back on one of the inflation theories, they'll quickly 85 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:06,800 Speaker 4: come up with another. 86 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:09,520 Speaker 5: You know, it's been like that all year. So you 87 00:04:09,560 --> 00:04:10,680 Speaker 5: know that's just the focus. 88 00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:14,640 Speaker 4: And with the sorry, with inflation still a little bit 89 00:04:14,640 --> 00:04:16,480 Speaker 4: above target, uh, you know. 90 00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:18,000 Speaker 5: People have still have that mindset. 91 00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:21,520 Speaker 4: So you need a clear indication to the contrary to 92 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:25,239 Speaker 4: really get people over onto your view that maybe labor 93 00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:27,080 Speaker 4: market is the bigger, bigger issue, all. 94 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:29,760 Speaker 6: Right, Jeffrey, So we got a view here on the 95 00:04:29,839 --> 00:04:32,160 Speaker 6: labor market today. How about inflation, the other part of 96 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 6: the Fed's mandate. What's your view there? 97 00:04:35,360 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 4: Not worried about it when you exclude the terror pressure. 98 00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:40,680 Speaker 4: You know, inflation on our view is two point four 99 00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 4: right now year over year on core PCE, I mean 100 00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:46,640 Speaker 4: more or less, we're if you round that down, it 101 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:49,039 Speaker 4: rounds to two percent. I think, Uh, so, you know 102 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:51,479 Speaker 4: we're at target if you exclude the tariffs, and we 103 00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:55,160 Speaker 4: don't think tariffs are an enduring inflation feature, so it's 104 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:57,760 Speaker 4: a one time pop to price level, so we're not worried, 105 00:04:57,800 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 4: and then we see more scope for disinflates in Paul 106 00:05:00,279 --> 00:05:02,200 Speaker 4: next year, I think you can see it on non 107 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:06,360 Speaker 4: housing services and importantly on the housing component of inflation, 108 00:05:06,600 --> 00:05:08,039 Speaker 4: so we'll see lower inflation. 109 00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:09,599 Speaker 5: We can we could get back to two. 110 00:05:09,440 --> 00:05:13,240 Speaker 4: Percent inflation sometime next year, maybe even below two percent. 111 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:15,000 Speaker 5: Guys, it'd be interesting. 112 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 2: I want to I want you to do a nail 113 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:20,839 Speaker 2: ferguson if we get a quarter point rate cut, what 114 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:22,080 Speaker 2: actually happens. 115 00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 5: Well, you know this is a common thing people say 116 00:05:25,680 --> 00:05:25,839 Speaker 5: to me. 117 00:05:25,960 --> 00:05:28,680 Speaker 4: Thomas say, ah, you know, quarter point won't do anything 118 00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:32,279 Speaker 4: for the labor market. And my response to that is, well, 119 00:05:32,279 --> 00:05:35,080 Speaker 4: why don't we just try anyway you'll get a dance. 120 00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:36,039 Speaker 7: I mean, it does. 121 00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:39,440 Speaker 4: It does have an impact. If if the bond market 122 00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:42,160 Speaker 4: senses out that the direction of travel for the overnight 123 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 4: rate is you know, another one hundred basis points lower 124 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 4: and more over the next year, that will feed through 125 00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:50,880 Speaker 4: into ten year yields, That will affect corporate borrowing cap 126 00:05:51,360 --> 00:05:53,360 Speaker 4: That will also feed through into mortgage rates. 127 00:05:53,520 --> 00:05:54,359 Speaker 5: You know, I think dall. 128 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 4: Earlier, Paul Sweeny says, yeah, exactly, yeah, exactly. 129 00:05:57,880 --> 00:06:00,359 Speaker 5: So it will have an impact. It's not just the 130 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:02,880 Speaker 5: twenty five basis points I'll fine tuning. It's more than that. 131 00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:05,479 Speaker 3: Jeffrey, thank you so much. This has been great. Just 132 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:07,279 Speaker 3: thank you for this job's report coverage. 133 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:08,200 Speaker 5: Stay with us. 134 00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:11,680 Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 135 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live 136 00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:25,719 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 137 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:29,520 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. 138 00:06:29,400 --> 00:06:32,280 Speaker 5: Or watch us live on YouTube. So here's the real. 139 00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 3: World, folks. 140 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:35,000 Speaker 2: I'm in a speech or whatever, and there's some young 141 00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:39,520 Speaker 2: cherub who says, when did life change? Life changed with 142 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:43,239 Speaker 2: David Melpass. I can tell you exactly when it did. 143 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:48,560 Speaker 2: Something called libor ois went out for standard deviations. I'm 144 00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:52,719 Speaker 2: in the show. The place is chaos, top to bottom 145 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:56,080 Speaker 2: of Thursday in August of two thousand and seven, and 146 00:06:56,160 --> 00:06:59,920 Speaker 2: I just screwed. I didn't screen Paul my usual check good, 147 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:04,680 Speaker 2: you know, like HR approved. Yet Alan Meltzer get David 148 00:07:04,760 --> 00:07:07,640 Speaker 2: Malpass and it was a magical show. One of the 149 00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:11,400 Speaker 2: iconic moments with then all that we're doing here at Bloomberg, 150 00:07:11,440 --> 00:07:14,720 Speaker 2: mister Melpass, when I'm from bear Stearns, where he was 151 00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 2: definitive in writing essays on the American experiment, to his 152 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:21,880 Speaker 2: public service at the World Bank, can I just say, 153 00:07:21,920 --> 00:07:26,480 Speaker 2: you look tanned and rested after the grind. What's the 154 00:07:26,520 --> 00:07:30,240 Speaker 2: biggest grind of public office that we don't see? 155 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:34,440 Speaker 8: It's good to see your town and Paul. The grind 156 00:07:34,560 --> 00:07:39,960 Speaker 8: is the travel. These conferences are constant, and I said no, no, 157 00:07:39,960 --> 00:07:42,720 Speaker 8: no to each of the conferences I didn't go to. 158 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:45,200 Speaker 3: Davos said yes, yes. 159 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:49,360 Speaker 8: People say, but this is your responsibility, and so you 160 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:52,320 Speaker 8: travel and nothing happens at the conferences. So I was 161 00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:55,880 Speaker 8: happy to see President Trump on this latest the G 162 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:59,040 Speaker 8: twenty going on in South Africa say we're just not 163 00:07:59,200 --> 00:08:02,080 Speaker 8: sending people because they don't do anything that's useful. 164 00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:03,320 Speaker 3: I want to cut to the. 165 00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:07,840 Speaker 2: Arch mail pass issue, which is the physics of two Americas. 166 00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 2: We have an America that's booming, Paul and I do 167 00:08:10,520 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 2: it every single day. We have an America being left 168 00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:18,800 Speaker 2: behind on an historical basis. How separate are we right now? 169 00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 8: I think they call it inequality or that underperformance by 170 00:08:24,520 --> 00:08:30,160 Speaker 8: the bottom is massive, whether from a data standpoint it's 171 00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:34,439 Speaker 8: the worst. But what we need is job growth at 172 00:08:34,440 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 8: the bottom and median income growth. 173 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:37,640 Speaker 3: That is the whole. 174 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:41,440 Speaker 8: Concept of a good economic policy. I did that around 175 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:44,880 Speaker 8: the world that the way we evaluate whether an economic 176 00:08:44,960 --> 00:08:49,240 Speaker 8: program is going forward is the median income, the income 177 00:08:49,280 --> 00:08:52,520 Speaker 8: of people in the middle after inflation going up. And 178 00:08:52,559 --> 00:08:56,000 Speaker 8: so what we need or what I think lots of 179 00:08:56,200 --> 00:09:00,200 Speaker 8: policy changes can help with affordability right now that I've 180 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:02,560 Speaker 8: written about is what the Federal Reserve could do to 181 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:07,240 Speaker 8: stop stop causing this income inequality. We need a lot 182 00:09:07,280 --> 00:09:11,240 Speaker 8: more energy production. We need permitting reform, which is really 183 00:09:11,320 --> 00:09:16,240 Speaker 8: important in Congress. I think a capital gains tax cut 184 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:20,720 Speaker 8: would actually enable a lot more capital mobility or Paul. 185 00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:24,280 Speaker 2: Accelerated depreciation YEP list of tours and slocks. 186 00:09:24,000 --> 00:09:26,199 Speaker 3: Is that puts a point on GDP. 187 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:30,240 Speaker 8: And very importantly it points a point or and that 188 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 8: growth comes from small businesses that invest in new machines, 189 00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:38,080 Speaker 8: which then enable workers in productivity. So it's a virtuous 190 00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:41,800 Speaker 8: circle that you create from. Then we desperately need that now. 191 00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:45,840 Speaker 8: I think Trump is going totally in the right direction. 192 00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:48,920 Speaker 8: The problem is implementation of it. In my worry right 193 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:51,040 Speaker 8: now is that the federal choke it off. 194 00:09:51,400 --> 00:09:53,760 Speaker 6: So that's kind of where you were two weeks ago 195 00:09:53,840 --> 00:09:55,839 Speaker 6: with your opinion piece in a Wall Street Journal talking 196 00:09:55,840 --> 00:09:58,600 Speaker 6: about affordability, and it was certainly an issue in the 197 00:09:58,679 --> 00:10:02,160 Speaker 6: elections in New Jersey and Virginia. Is the Fed too 198 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:07,559 Speaker 6: slow here in cutting rates to address its influence on affordability? 199 00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:10,600 Speaker 8: Yes, So I did a Wall Street Journal article in 200 00:10:10,679 --> 00:10:12,720 Speaker 8: June that they should cut, should have cut in that 201 00:10:12,840 --> 00:10:15,000 Speaker 8: June meeting, And wouldn't the world be better if they 202 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:17,800 Speaker 8: had cut in June because you would have had the 203 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:19,120 Speaker 8: growth that came out. 204 00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:21,720 Speaker 3: Of that, and the inflation wasn't occurring. 205 00:10:21,760 --> 00:10:24,320 Speaker 8: You know, people were kept saying there was inflation and 206 00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 8: it didn't show up, so they would have been able 207 00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:31,720 Speaker 8: to cut and cause allowed growth. That would have helped 208 00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:34,880 Speaker 8: the supply chains, and maybe whether or not they could 209 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:37,880 Speaker 8: keep going now anyway you would have had the benefit 210 00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:41,880 Speaker 8: of it and not. I put in this latest article 211 00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:46,360 Speaker 8: the cost to the fiscal deficit from them waiting. So 212 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:49,160 Speaker 8: the government has been paying way too much interest in 213 00:10:49,200 --> 00:10:52,880 Speaker 8: The FED, of course itself pays interest to banks for 214 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:57,959 Speaker 8: three months where the rate was too high, so they 215 00:10:57,960 --> 00:11:01,000 Speaker 8: can change that. But I'm worried that where we've already 216 00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:03,439 Speaker 8: seen the bottom of the ten year yield, unless the 217 00:11:03,520 --> 00:11:07,600 Speaker 8: Fed changes its models, they're right now looking backward at 218 00:11:07,600 --> 00:11:11,480 Speaker 8: inflation and they're going to have excuses why they don't 219 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:12,440 Speaker 8: want to cut anymore. 220 00:11:13,040 --> 00:11:14,680 Speaker 6: As a former president of the World Bank, you have 221 00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:17,600 Speaker 6: a unique view of global trade. What's your view of 222 00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:22,400 Speaker 6: the tariff policy of this administration and its impact on 223 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:23,880 Speaker 6: global trade. 224 00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:27,760 Speaker 8: I've emphasized that the trading system was really broken. We 225 00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:31,040 Speaker 8: were in it thinking that everybody was playing by the 226 00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:33,840 Speaker 8: same rules. In China wasn't. And you can look back 227 00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 8: and say, well, when did people figure it out? That 228 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:41,600 Speaker 8: doesn't matter. You're stuck in a world wto the World 229 00:11:41,640 --> 00:11:45,480 Speaker 8: Trade Organization system that doesn't work at all. When you 230 00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:51,200 Speaker 8: have the second biggest economy with very aggressive industrial policy. 231 00:11:51,360 --> 00:11:54,880 Speaker 8: They're using economy of scale. That means if you invest 232 00:11:54,920 --> 00:11:57,800 Speaker 8: in your the first mover in a sector, then you 233 00:11:57,880 --> 00:11:59,319 Speaker 8: wipe out all your competition. 234 00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:02,840 Speaker 2: To send David mailpass. You don't see this on radio, 235 00:12:02,920 --> 00:12:05,679 Speaker 2: Lucky you. For those of you on YouTube, Mailpass has 236 00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:08,960 Speaker 2: a gold tie on today that looks like the plated 237 00:12:09,040 --> 00:12:11,880 Speaker 2: gold in the President's oval office as well. 238 00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:14,240 Speaker 3: You are one of the few people that come in 239 00:12:14,280 --> 00:12:15,640 Speaker 3: here that have been in the. 240 00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:19,600 Speaker 2: Trenches of working out of a van running for public office, 241 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:23,120 Speaker 2: in your case, the Grand Old Party. How does the 242 00:12:23,160 --> 00:12:28,640 Speaker 2: GOP move forward with a centrist tendency? How do the Democrats, 243 00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:33,280 Speaker 2: the evil Democrats, David move forward with a central tendency? 244 00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:36,760 Speaker 2: Where is the center tendency that you've written about for 245 00:12:36,760 --> 00:12:38,000 Speaker 2: forty years? 246 00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:41,040 Speaker 8: I ran for Senate in New York State in twenty ten, 247 00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:44,600 Speaker 8: so it was the Tea Party days. That was the 248 00:12:44,640 --> 00:12:48,239 Speaker 8: idea that you could create growth with lower tax rates, 249 00:12:48,280 --> 00:12:53,599 Speaker 8: with different policies, and basically with a giant upheaval in Washington. 250 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:57,400 Speaker 8: So that means each department changing so that they stop 251 00:12:57,480 --> 00:12:58,360 Speaker 8: blocking growth. 252 00:12:58,400 --> 00:13:00,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, but look at the president's rating. I mean the 253 00:13:00,559 --> 00:13:04,400 Speaker 2: giant up people ain't too popular right now. Where how 254 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:09,079 Speaker 2: do we get back to the centrist politics you and 255 00:13:09,520 --> 00:13:10,439 Speaker 2: John Writing. 256 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:11,600 Speaker 3: And all wrote about years ago. 257 00:13:11,880 --> 00:13:14,440 Speaker 8: So I think you have to implement the upheaval that 258 00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 8: is going on now, and that means in each area 259 00:13:17,120 --> 00:13:20,560 Speaker 8: you need more work on the tax code. You need more, 260 00:13:20,679 --> 00:13:24,880 Speaker 8: of course, more work on restraining government spending because Washington 261 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:27,080 Speaker 8: just wants to spend all the money in the world. 262 00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:31,240 Speaker 8: And very importantly, these federal reforms would allow capital to 263 00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 8: flow to small businesses. So that's the core of it. 264 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:38,000 Speaker 8: It's the same message, and I think it is Trump's 265 00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:40,920 Speaker 8: basic message, but you have to implement each part of 266 00:13:40,960 --> 00:13:42,160 Speaker 8: it in each department. 267 00:13:42,520 --> 00:13:45,640 Speaker 3: No, maybe that's not happening. David Monpus, thank you so much, Paul. 268 00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:47,920 Speaker 3: I'm just going to mention this now. The interview of 269 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:48,280 Speaker 3: the year. 270 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:53,120 Speaker 2: Maybe the moment was Nancy Lazarre talking much like David 271 00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:57,120 Speaker 2: about it at the micro level. We have to create jobs. 272 00:13:57,440 --> 00:14:00,520 Speaker 2: You do it through incentives at all. 273 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:02,480 Speaker 6: I don't know, We'll see, We'll have to see. We've 274 00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:03,280 Speaker 6: got a lot of economics. 275 00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:06,240 Speaker 3: You're enjoying not being in public service community. 276 00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:10,720 Speaker 8: Yeah, yeah, that's fine. For one, I exercised more and 277 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:14,840 Speaker 8: have have been don't travel as which you know wasn't 278 00:14:15,280 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 8: isn't I've done it for so many years. 279 00:14:18,280 --> 00:14:22,120 Speaker 2: It's uh, do you get World Cup tickets? 280 00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:24,160 Speaker 5: Special tickets? Very important? 281 00:14:24,240 --> 00:14:28,400 Speaker 8: I signed the FIFA ball so at the G twenty 282 00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:32,240 Speaker 8: in Indonesia in twenty twenty two. It was amazing the 283 00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:35,800 Speaker 8: world that Ukraine had already been invaded. There was this 284 00:14:35,880 --> 00:14:40,160 Speaker 8: big round table and so Biden was there in Macron 285 00:14:40,240 --> 00:14:43,000 Speaker 8: and everybody and all they and the FIFA guy was 286 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 8: there and that he was the center of attention. 287 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:47,200 Speaker 5: And I got signed. 288 00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:51,440 Speaker 3: Bass with the FIFA guy. Greatly appreciate it. 289 00:14:51,520 --> 00:14:55,359 Speaker 2: Mister Malpass course, former President of the World Bank. 290 00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:56,240 Speaker 3: Stay with us. 291 00:14:56,280 --> 00:15:06,560 Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 292 00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:10,480 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Listen live each weekday 293 00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:13,920 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 294 00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:16,920 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live 295 00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:20,560 Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just 296 00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:23,000 Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 297 00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:25,120 Speaker 2: It is a joy to talk to Martin Norton. She's 298 00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:28,920 Speaker 2: with the Canadians Empower Full Disclosure. They handle the Bloomberg 299 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:30,960 Speaker 2: four oh and K do a great job on that. 300 00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:32,240 Speaker 3: Get the little app. 301 00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:35,160 Speaker 6: Yeah, I get the app. Triple leverage all cash check 302 00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:35,840 Speaker 6: it out every once in a. 303 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:40,040 Speaker 2: While, four point two percent, yeah, but leverage up seven 304 00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:43,200 Speaker 2: point three the more the usual empower drop my phone 305 00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:46,800 Speaker 2: the empower fee. Martin Norton with this year with perspective 306 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:51,880 Speaker 2: on the markets. Are people participating in this mental tech rally? 307 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:56,280 Speaker 2: Like in the canvas of the billions you people handle? 308 00:15:56,960 --> 00:15:59,800 Speaker 2: Are people participating in Nvidia and tech? 309 00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:03,440 Speaker 7: We have such a great AI story going on right now, 310 00:16:03,760 --> 00:16:06,040 Speaker 7: but when I think about the questions that I get 311 00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:10,080 Speaker 7: from clients, there is still a lot of consternation out there. 312 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:13,080 Speaker 7: I think there's fear. I mean the tariff moment was 313 00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:16,280 Speaker 7: a moment of great fear I think broadly for a 314 00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:19,520 Speaker 7: lot of clients. And then there's still a lot of 315 00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:25,680 Speaker 7: enthusiasm around alternatives like gold and crypto and people concerned 316 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:29,600 Speaker 7: about the US future. So I think people are in financially, 317 00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:34,120 Speaker 7: but mentally and emotionally there's still some hesitation and reservation there. 318 00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:36,960 Speaker 6: I mean, it's proven once again today this is an 319 00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:41,240 Speaker 6: AI marketplace. That's for sure that the AI narrative, as 320 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:43,320 Speaker 6: it were, is still alive. And well, yeah, how about 321 00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:46,440 Speaker 6: diversification into fixed income? How do you try to weave 322 00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:48,120 Speaker 6: that discussion to your conversation. 323 00:16:48,360 --> 00:16:50,640 Speaker 7: Yeah, you know, I would say that after twenty twenty two, 324 00:16:50,720 --> 00:16:54,200 Speaker 7: there was real hesitation on the part of financial advisors, 325 00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:58,400 Speaker 7: on the part of retail investors, real concern about whether 326 00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:01,320 Speaker 7: fixed income was ahead. But what we're seeing this year 327 00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:04,240 Speaker 7: from fixed income is pretty strong returns. I think for 328 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:06,720 Speaker 7: a lot of folks, yields are a lot better. I think, 329 00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:09,840 Speaker 7: you know, there's a lot of I would say commentary 330 00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:13,119 Speaker 7: around is sixty forty dead, but I think it's it 331 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:16,399 Speaker 7: certainly has delivered in twenty twenty five. And so with 332 00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:19,520 Speaker 7: all the doubts you know that continue to persist around 333 00:17:19,520 --> 00:17:22,440 Speaker 7: that type of basic strategy, I don't know if people 334 00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:25,280 Speaker 7: can throw the towel on it at this point in time. 335 00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:27,959 Speaker 6: What do you what's the discussion you guys have with 336 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:30,480 Speaker 6: your clients about rebalancing, you know, in terms of you've 337 00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:32,600 Speaker 6: got some real big winners, let's take a little money 338 00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:33,119 Speaker 6: off the table. 339 00:17:33,119 --> 00:17:34,919 Speaker 3: And he asked those questions just to. 340 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:38,639 Speaker 5: Cure balance. 341 00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:42,920 Speaker 7: Interesting, So here's my view on rebouncing at this particular moment. 342 00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:46,479 Speaker 7: I think when we're in a AI moment like this, 343 00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:49,560 Speaker 7: an innovation cycle like this one where there is just 344 00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:53,879 Speaker 7: massive enthusiasm and maybe rightly so, around what the technology 345 00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:56,080 Speaker 7: is able to do for the economy, and then those 346 00:17:56,119 --> 00:17:58,919 Speaker 7: gains a crew to the AI winners. At the moment, 347 00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:02,840 Speaker 7: we have the potential for prices to soar past with 348 00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:06,320 Speaker 7: enthusiasm what the fundamentals say, and then we get these 349 00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:09,639 Speaker 7: bouts of volatility. And so in my mind, you know, 350 00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:13,000 Speaker 7: we should talk about rebalancing on a permanent basis, but 351 00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:15,320 Speaker 7: in a moment like this one, I think it can 352 00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:18,480 Speaker 7: help save some of the fits and starts for a portfolio. 353 00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:21,760 Speaker 2: But I know it's not an empowered opinion. But with 354 00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:24,639 Speaker 2: all your work, particularly at morning Star Martin Norton, the 355 00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:28,680 Speaker 2: bottom line is the key plug in to the rebalancing 356 00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:34,120 Speaker 2: theory is the how oftenness of it. And respectfully would 357 00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:36,879 Speaker 2: say the street has an addiction to this because as 358 00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:37,200 Speaker 2: as an. 359 00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:39,000 Speaker 3: Excuse to get in front of clients. 360 00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:44,439 Speaker 2: In the academic study Paul Across cycles bear markets, the 361 00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:47,400 Speaker 2: wheneness of it is a huge deal. 362 00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:49,280 Speaker 3: Do you find it in that's a great way that 363 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:52,160 Speaker 3: people are doing it too much. They're moving in there 364 00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:53,800 Speaker 3: trading there for one key. 365 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:56,280 Speaker 7: I mean We've been playing around with some different studies 366 00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:59,399 Speaker 7: on rebalancing and if you're taking a look at like 367 00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:01,600 Speaker 7: a monthly balance scheme and you look at what that 368 00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:03,720 Speaker 7: would generate. If you're just something tracking the S and 369 00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:06,160 Speaker 7: P five hundred, you could see a turnover of less 370 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:08,879 Speaker 7: than ten percent on a monthly basis, but that generates 371 00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:12,679 Speaker 7: overall turnover about of one hundred percent on an annual basis. 372 00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:16,520 Speaker 3: And that really talking on a couch over robin hood. 373 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:21,320 Speaker 6: So we're just confirmed once again today this is an 374 00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:25,399 Speaker 6: AI driven marketplace. Outside of that, yeah, are you guys 375 00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:29,760 Speaker 6: looking for value in other sectors or yeah? I mean 376 00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:31,440 Speaker 6: if you do that too much, you kind of missed 377 00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:32,160 Speaker 6: out on the performance. 378 00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:32,760 Speaker 5: Well, that's true. 379 00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:35,360 Speaker 7: I mean, it's interesting that if you were, if you're 380 00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:38,080 Speaker 7: a real skeptic on the AI theory and you move 381 00:19:38,119 --> 00:19:40,720 Speaker 7: out of it completely, you're missing the bulk of the 382 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:43,480 Speaker 7: US market gains. Right, the US no longer looks so 383 00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:47,440 Speaker 7: exceptional relative to other markets. I think one thing that 384 00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:52,440 Speaker 7: I listened to Jeffrey Gunlock's podcast on odd Lots recently, 385 00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:54,119 Speaker 7: and one of the things he said is, you know, 386 00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:59,040 Speaker 7: the market is expensive everywhere, and it's hard from the 387 00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:04,119 Speaker 7: research that we've done, at least within equities to disagree, 388 00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:06,600 Speaker 7: because when we look at valuations, we look at it 389 00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:09,760 Speaker 7: on this deathcile basis. We want to make sure that 390 00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:13,120 Speaker 7: we're only looking at the extremes because valuations, when they're 391 00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:16,159 Speaker 7: just modestly high, they're really not predictive of returns. So 392 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:19,120 Speaker 7: we want to make sure we're really capturing those extreme moments. 393 00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:22,000 Speaker 7: And when we do that, sector by sector, most of 394 00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:24,119 Speaker 7: them look to be at extremes. 395 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:25,960 Speaker 2: I let me do a data check here, Martin Norton, 396 00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:29,600 Speaker 2: with us within powers, we look to the shattered retirement 397 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:33,160 Speaker 2: economy of America. Futures up one o five, up eighty 398 00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:36,760 Speaker 2: three hours ago. They've just really advanced. Often vidia the 399 00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:40,120 Speaker 2: tech A jobs report that came up near four point 400 00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 2: five percent round up unemployment. Thank you Michael McKee for that. 401 00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:47,200 Speaker 2: Futures up one o three, NASEK up two percent right now, 402 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:51,080 Speaker 2: vis coming in with a vengeance nineteen point seven three. 403 00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:54,160 Speaker 2: The sweety yield right now three point six to zero, 404 00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:57,720 Speaker 2: the handles a three point five six. That really gets 405 00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:00,400 Speaker 2: my attention. There maybe on a bet of what we'll 406 00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:03,760 Speaker 2: see in December. I'm sure you know this. The three 407 00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:06,600 Speaker 2: decimal points and you probably can't tell me, but give 408 00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:10,600 Speaker 2: me a tendency here. How many people it empower over 409 00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:15,320 Speaker 2: whatever age? Yeah, are properly funded for retirement? Is it 410 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:17,840 Speaker 2: single digit or is it too. 411 00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:18,399 Speaker 3: Gloomy with that? 412 00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:18,960 Speaker 5: Yeah? 413 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:22,560 Speaker 7: You know, it's interesting. I think people are the narrative 414 00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:25,560 Speaker 7: around inative retirement. A lot of people use the word crisis, 415 00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:29,040 Speaker 7: and I don't know if that's the appropriate word to use. 416 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:32,200 Speaker 7: I mean, I think we've seen a really good impact 417 00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:35,840 Speaker 7: of for one k's on the average person's life. 418 00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:37,880 Speaker 5: But when you take a look at. 419 00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:41,040 Speaker 7: Kind of where the need is, a lot of what 420 00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:44,200 Speaker 7: you see is just a lack of access. And that 421 00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:47,520 Speaker 7: really relates more to the small business market than it 422 00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:50,600 Speaker 7: does to the larger companies. So there's been some really 423 00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:55,199 Speaker 7: good developments having a kind of automated default into a 424 00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:58,560 Speaker 7: retirement plan that's been really helpful for a lot of 425 00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:01,000 Speaker 7: folks so they don't even have to an active choice. 426 00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:05,080 Speaker 7: But not having access to this kind of capability, I 427 00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:06,080 Speaker 7: think that's problematic. 428 00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:07,600 Speaker 3: Maarda, we don't care. 429 00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:12,680 Speaker 2: The only reason you're here is Michael McKee bleeds Denver Broncos. 430 00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:16,640 Speaker 3: For you people sponsor Denver Broncos. 431 00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:22,280 Speaker 2: Can you get McKeith, tickets, tickets. 432 00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:23,359 Speaker 5: We'll see what we can do. 433 00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:27,199 Speaker 3: Martin, thank you so much. 434 00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:29,760 Speaker 2: Out of Denver and of course all of Canada with 435 00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:33,600 Speaker 2: empower is stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming 436 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:41,760 Speaker 2: up after this. 437 00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:45,639 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 438 00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:48,679 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android 439 00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:51,760 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 440 00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:55,119 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. 441 00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:58,320 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 442 00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:01,520 Speaker 3: We are lifted by the new papers. Here's Lisa Mintaylor. 443 00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:01,920 Speaker 1: You got it. 444 00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:03,280 Speaker 5: It's a big day. Okay. 445 00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:06,760 Speaker 9: First round of bids for Warner Brothers, Discovery expected today. 446 00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:07,840 Speaker 5: Competition. 447 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:10,520 Speaker 9: They're putting all their final touches on their offers. Okay, 448 00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:14,560 Speaker 9: So you have Paramount Guidance, Comcast, Netflix, all in the running, Comcast, 449 00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:17,440 Speaker 9: Netflix most interested in film and TV. Paramount wants to 450 00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:18,240 Speaker 9: buy the whole company. 451 00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:18,760 Speaker 5: They put in. 452 00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:21,440 Speaker 9: Three offers already running. His high is about twenty three 453 00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:24,440 Speaker 9: fifty a share. The new thing for this story is 454 00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:27,800 Speaker 9: that Bloomberg's reporting that Netflix is changing the tune a little. 455 00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:29,000 Speaker 5: They told Warner. 456 00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:31,840 Speaker 9: Brothers they're going to they will keep releasing their films 457 00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,560 Speaker 9: in theaters if they win the bid, and that's something 458 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:35,960 Speaker 9: they did not want to do. 459 00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:37,320 Speaker 5: So you're starting to see they. 460 00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:40,440 Speaker 3: Wanted to change in the company, right Yeah, Netflix. 461 00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:43,639 Speaker 6: Netflix would prefer just the studio in HBO Max, you know, 462 00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:46,160 Speaker 6: the content side. They don't necessarily want the cable network business. 463 00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:47,760 Speaker 6: That's not the business run. But that's okay. 464 00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:49,320 Speaker 5: That that structure's fine too. 465 00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:51,600 Speaker 6: I think with One Brother's Discovery, they just have to 466 00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:55,680 Speaker 6: figure out what's going to maximize total value for the company. 467 00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:56,800 Speaker 3: Price at the end of the days. 468 00:23:57,000 --> 00:23:59,359 Speaker 6: I think it is not just price, Yeah, because you 469 00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:02,680 Speaker 6: have a seller here, that's a willing seller. Warner Brothers Discovery, 470 00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:05,199 Speaker 6: their board and their CEO is committed to sell the company. 471 00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:06,280 Speaker 5: Now it's just about price. 472 00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:10,479 Speaker 3: Can I editorialize further? Paul? Is this just about John Malone? 473 00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:12,040 Speaker 3: Is he the one driving the bus? No? 474 00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:14,480 Speaker 6: No, No, this is really about I would say mister 475 00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:16,600 Speaker 6: Ellison and his father. 476 00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:18,240 Speaker 5: I think that's the real variable here. 477 00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:20,239 Speaker 6: How much equity do they want to put in and 478 00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:22,240 Speaker 6: how much equity can they attract the fund their bid? 479 00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:27,040 Speaker 6: Because Warner Brothers Discovery three times they did land Man 480 00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:28,560 Speaker 6: that's exactly exactly. 481 00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:32,880 Speaker 9: Next Okay, this one's in the Wall Street journals. When 482 00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:35,520 Speaker 9: is it time to retire? That's the question. And a 483 00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:39,480 Speaker 9: bit's out there and it gives ten reasons, like ten 484 00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:40,359 Speaker 9: signs to lease. 485 00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:43,760 Speaker 5: Take close to home, dude, I know, I know. Okay. 486 00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:45,680 Speaker 5: The first one they say is if. 487 00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:48,080 Speaker 9: You arrive at work and you feel a little bit numb, 488 00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:51,120 Speaker 9: more than like once or twice a week, which means 489 00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:54,600 Speaker 9: that you're unhappy and you're unfulfilled. Okay, okay, here's another 490 00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:57,200 Speaker 9: one for you. If you lose your desire to keep 491 00:24:57,280 --> 00:24:58,480 Speaker 9: up with a new tech tool. 492 00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:01,520 Speaker 5: That's one hit, had one hit. Here, learn this new 493 00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:02,440 Speaker 5: software thing. Okay. 494 00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:04,320 Speaker 9: Wait, next week we're going to learn this one. And 495 00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:05,880 Speaker 9: next month we're going to learn this one. 496 00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:06,160 Speaker 8: Okay. 497 00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:09,560 Speaker 9: If that kind of bothers you a little bit, okay, 498 00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:10,399 Speaker 9: that's a sign. 499 00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:13,360 Speaker 3: Sorry, would you get out? 500 00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:15,639 Speaker 5: Oh we're not done yet. Okay. 501 00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:19,520 Speaker 9: If you get the Sunday scaries, this is like if 502 00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:21,840 Speaker 9: Sunday night when you're getting dinner ready and you're already 503 00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:24,640 Speaker 9: starting to feel the jitters, like, oh, Monday's coming, Monday's coming, 504 00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:25,200 Speaker 9: Monday's coming. 505 00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:25,560 Speaker 5: Okay. 506 00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:28,280 Speaker 9: If you notice and you look around the room and 507 00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:31,480 Speaker 9: you say, where are all my peers? They're gone, and you're. 508 00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:36,280 Speaker 5: The oldest person in the room. What then that's another sign. Okay, 509 00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:38,720 Speaker 5: especially here Bloomberg Control. 510 00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:42,040 Speaker 2: It's the first time I've ever seen the control room. 511 00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:42,800 Speaker 8: Forward. 512 00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:46,720 Speaker 5: Yeah, you guys are loving this. Huh. I got one more? 513 00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:50,400 Speaker 9: Okay, okay, ready, if you notice that you're walking around 514 00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:53,280 Speaker 9: the halls and your your your body aches right, your 515 00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:55,359 Speaker 9: knees or ache, and all of a sudden, your joints 516 00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:56,000 Speaker 9: and your walk. 517 00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:57,480 Speaker 5: That started right at fifteen. 518 00:25:57,400 --> 00:25:59,520 Speaker 9: Ah okay, okay. 519 00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:04,160 Speaker 5: Did mister bloom Yeah, well say journal ized swear. Check 520 00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:05,479 Speaker 5: it out. It's pretty interesting. 521 00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:08,679 Speaker 9: Okay, here's here's here's a hint for you. 522 00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:09,879 Speaker 5: Believe it or not. 523 00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:13,520 Speaker 9: We know who purchased that gold toilet bowl at jeez, 524 00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:14,360 Speaker 9: there's your hint. 525 00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:16,199 Speaker 5: Yes, replice, believe it or not? 526 00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:16,520 Speaker 1: Did? 527 00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:17,679 Speaker 5: Yes? It was the twelve. 528 00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:22,400 Speaker 9: They talked about it as one of the wildest acquisitions 529 00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:27,400 Speaker 9: in its history. Now the company hasn't decided where they're 530 00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:30,680 Speaker 9: going to use the toilet. Their intention is to display it. 531 00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:34,320 Speaker 9: But here's a zinger. It's even considering whether visitors may 532 00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:37,359 Speaker 9: someday be allowed to use it, so you might be 533 00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:40,600 Speaker 9: able to go, give a little flush and and have 534 00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:43,960 Speaker 9: at it. But that's what they're saying. So it price 535 00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:46,880 Speaker 9: the toilet based on the equivalent value of gold. Replice 536 00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:49,359 Speaker 9: paid that another two million of premiums to souther B's 537 00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:52,000 Speaker 9: on top of it, so it was it was a big, 538 00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:52,679 Speaker 9: big purchase. 539 00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:57,000 Speaker 5: But now we know who bolright. See this story that 540 00:26:57,080 --> 00:26:57,600 Speaker 5: keeps giving. 541 00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:04,080 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on apples, Spotify, 542 00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:08,480 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 543 00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:12,080 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 544 00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:16,199 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 545 00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:19,560 Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 546 00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:21,520 Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal.