1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:09,560 --> 00:00:13,000 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast. Good morning, It's Wednesday, 3 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:16,479 Speaker 2: the eighth of April. I'm Stephen Carolyn London. Coming up today, 4 00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:19,600 Speaker 2: The United States, Israel, and Iran agree a two week 5 00:00:19,720 --> 00:00:23,320 Speaker 2: ceasefire in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. 6 00:00:23,680 --> 00:00:26,960 Speaker 2: Oil prices plunge as shipowners look to extract more than 7 00:00:27,040 --> 00:00:30,840 Speaker 2: eight hundred vessels trapped in the Persian Gulf. Plus Vance 8 00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:34,040 Speaker 2: picks a fight with Europe. The US Vice President accuses 9 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:38,440 Speaker 2: the EU of meddling in Hungary's election. Let's start with 10 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 2: a roundup of our top stories. The United States and 11 00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 2: Iran have agreed to a two week ceasefire, halting a 12 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:47,360 Speaker 2: war that has left thousands dead and sparked a global 13 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:51,199 Speaker 2: energy crisis. President Trump announced the pause and hostilities on 14 00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 2: social media, saying that it's subject to Tehran reopening the 15 00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:58,440 Speaker 2: Strait of Hormuz. In a statement, Iran's Foreign minister Abbasaradji 16 00:00:58,760 --> 00:01:01,640 Speaker 2: said that safe passage through the key shipping lane would 17 00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:05,039 Speaker 2: be possible for a period of two weeks in coordination 18 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:08,480 Speaker 2: with his country's armed forces. According to a source who 19 00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 2: spoke to the Associated Press. The ceasefire plan includes allowing 20 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:15,920 Speaker 2: both Iran and Oman to charge fees on ships traveling 21 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 2: through the Strait. Daniel Bimen as director of the Warfare 22 00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:23,000 Speaker 2: Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, President. 23 00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:28,240 Speaker 3: Trump was clearly moving towards a decision moment, and today 24 00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:31,720 Speaker 3: it was either going to be significant escalation or some 25 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 3: spurtive deal. And he can now claim that it was 26 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:38,959 Speaker 3: his threats that led the Iranians to the negotiating table. 27 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:42,160 Speaker 3: It's quite possible he could have got this deal several 28 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:44,760 Speaker 3: weeks ago. So I'm not quite sure that's right, but 29 00:01:45,160 --> 00:01:48,640 Speaker 3: this possibility has been out there. It's not a comprehensive deal. 30 00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:50,760 Speaker 3: It doesn't get all of what the United States wants. 31 00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 3: We're even close, and the same on the Iranian side. 32 00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:56,400 Speaker 2: Daniel Biamen says, both sides have a short window to 33 00:01:56,440 --> 00:01:59,960 Speaker 2: negotiating more comprehensive agreement. The deal came just ninety min 34 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:03,160 Speaker 2: minutes before President Trump's deadline for Iran to open the 35 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 2: Key Waterway, and only hours after he had posted that 36 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:10,079 Speaker 2: a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought 37 00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:13,480 Speaker 2: back again if Iran didn't give in the decision to 38 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:16,480 Speaker 2: stand down marks the latest case of the US president 39 00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:19,400 Speaker 2: backing down from a threat. The pattern has become known 40 00:02:19,440 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 2: by the acronym Taco or Trump always chickens out. While 41 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:25,800 Speaker 2: both Tehran and Washington say they support the deal, in 42 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:28,960 Speaker 2: the immediate aftermath of the announcement, countries across the Middle 43 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:32,600 Speaker 2: East reported being targeted by missiles and drones. That comes 44 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:35,400 Speaker 2: as Pakistan, the main mediator between Iran and the US, 45 00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:40,799 Speaker 2: said the ceasefire includes Lebanon and elsewhere. Whoever, Israel's Prime Minister, 46 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:45,200 Speaker 2: Benjamin Nataniahu says the ceasefire applies to Iran, but not Lebanon. 47 00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:49,160 Speaker 2: Dahlia Fami is Long Island University's director of International Relations 48 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:49,919 Speaker 2: and Diplomacy. 49 00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 4: We look at it kind of a larger scale view 50 00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:55,680 Speaker 4: of this war and was it in the US strategic 51 00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:59,080 Speaker 4: interest or was President Trump drawn into the war because 52 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 4: of Israel? And we could be at a point where 53 00:03:01,720 --> 00:03:05,960 Speaker 4: Israel is repositioning itself as the important lever even during 54 00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:07,080 Speaker 4: this peace process. 55 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:09,960 Speaker 2: Although both the US and Iran are portraying the pause 56 00:03:10,000 --> 00:03:13,520 Speaker 2: and fighting as a victory, significant differences remain between the 57 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:16,600 Speaker 2: two sides. The complete terms of a possible pact also 58 00:03:16,639 --> 00:03:20,160 Speaker 2: haven't been disclosed. Trump only said the US received a 59 00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:24,680 Speaker 2: ten point proposal from Iran, describing it as a workable 60 00:03:24,760 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 2: basis on which to negotiate, and speaking to the AFP 61 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:32,560 Speaker 2: News Agency shortly after the ceasefire announcement, Donald Trump said 62 00:03:32,680 --> 00:03:36,920 Speaker 2: the Iran's uranium supply would be perfectly taken care of, 63 00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:40,840 Speaker 2: while declining to specify how. Oil prices have fallen the 64 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:42,720 Speaker 2: most in six years on the news of the Strait 65 00:03:42,720 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 2: of Jomu's reopening. Despite no clear details on how passage 66 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 2: will work, Brent crude price has dropped as much as 67 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:52,320 Speaker 2: sixteen percent. They're currently training around ninety five dollars a barrel. 68 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:56,320 Speaker 2: Jason Schenker of Prestige Economics says it's a fragile price move. 69 00:03:56,880 --> 00:04:00,400 Speaker 5: I think it would take something truly tremendous for us 70 00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:04,240 Speaker 5: to get back down below eighty dollars a barrel, but 71 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:08,840 Speaker 5: almost anything going wrong in these ceasefire talks could very 72 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:11,600 Speaker 5: quickly put us back above one hundred dollars a barrel, 73 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:16,160 Speaker 5: So you know, I think it is a very precarious 74 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:18,480 Speaker 5: moment with a high degree of uncertainty. 75 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:21,800 Speaker 2: Shankerads many companies will be weighing if they should lock 76 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:26,000 Speaker 2: in prices now in case the situation deteriorates. Despite the 77 00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:29,600 Speaker 2: relief on markets, physical traders remain cautious, waiting for clearer 78 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:33,720 Speaker 2: signs the ceasefire will hold before seeking cargoes from the gulf. 79 00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:36,719 Speaker 2: There are more than eight hundred ships trapped inside the 80 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:39,080 Speaker 2: Persian Gulf which will seek to escape during the two 81 00:04:39,120 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 2: week window. Owners and captains are scrambling to understand the 82 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:45,960 Speaker 2: conditions of the truce and how they might take advantage 83 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:46,200 Speaker 2: of it. 84 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:47,760 Speaker 1: Binbrook Chames Wilcock has more. 85 00:04:48,839 --> 00:04:52,039 Speaker 6: It's estimated twenty thousand sailors have spent the last six 86 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:56,000 Speaker 6: weeks stuck at sea with dwindling water and food supplies. Now, 87 00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:58,719 Speaker 6: many hope the two week pause will allow trap ships 88 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:02,720 Speaker 6: to exit the Persian But although the US President announced 89 00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:06,719 Speaker 6: in Capital Lessons a complete, immediate and safe opening of 90 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:09,479 Speaker 6: the straight Upfoor Moods, it's not clear how the truce 91 00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:10,080 Speaker 6: will function. 92 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:11,520 Speaker 1: Owners want to. 93 00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:13,839 Speaker 6: Know exactly how they would need to coordinate with the 94 00:05:13,839 --> 00:05:17,280 Speaker 6: Iranian military to get out, if a payment might be involved, 95 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:20,520 Speaker 6: and what time the two week window will end. One 96 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 6: expert warned Bloomberg that even with those details, you don't 97 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:27,120 Speaker 6: just switch global shipping flows back on in twenty four 98 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 6: hours in London James Wilcock Bloomberg Radio. 99 00:05:30,839 --> 00:05:33,640 Speaker 2: In other NEAs, Moodies has revised its outlook for private 100 00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:37,640 Speaker 2: credit investment vehicles to negative due to increasing redemptions and 101 00:05:37,839 --> 00:05:41,040 Speaker 2: elevated leverage. The move that follows an ongoing exodus from 102 00:05:41,080 --> 00:05:43,760 Speaker 2: non traded vehicles, which make up sixty percent of the 103 00:05:43,760 --> 00:05:48,240 Speaker 2: sexer's assets according to reports released by the ratings agency yesterday. 104 00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:51,000 Speaker 2: The vehicles that saw net inflows as recently as the 105 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:54,360 Speaker 2: end of last year before AI Advance has raised concerns 106 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:57,840 Speaker 2: about the future of software firms, but Bruce Raychud's chairman 107 00:05:57,880 --> 00:06:00,840 Speaker 2: and CEO of Marathon Asset Management, says some areas of 108 00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 2: the market are showing promise. 109 00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:06,520 Speaker 7: Problems that we're seeing in direct lending leads to the opportunity. 110 00:06:06,560 --> 00:06:07,440 Speaker 1: It is the flip side. 111 00:06:07,480 --> 00:06:09,880 Speaker 7: It's exactly the right terminology, exactly what. 112 00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:10,400 Speaker 1: I would say. 113 00:06:10,520 --> 00:06:12,560 Speaker 7: It's the flip side of what you'll see and opportunities 114 00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:15,520 Speaker 7: to credit, because opportunities to credit is all about dislocation, 115 00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:19,200 Speaker 7: it's about distress, and it's about capital solutions that will 116 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:23,120 Speaker 7: be so much needed given all the problems that we 117 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:24,440 Speaker 7: see in direct lending. 118 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:28,520 Speaker 2: Marathon Asset Management's Bruce Reschurch was speaking a sentiment towards 119 00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 2: private credits sours across Wall Street. Private credit investment vehicle 120 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:35,680 Speaker 2: stock prices have also suffered, with many trading at a 121 00:06:35,760 --> 00:06:39,960 Speaker 2: discount to net asset value, and US Vice President Jed 122 00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:42,120 Speaker 2: e Vance has criticized the European Union for what he 123 00:06:42,160 --> 00:06:44,960 Speaker 2: sees is meddling in the Hungarian election. He was speaking 124 00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:47,920 Speaker 2: alongside Prime Minister Victor Orban on a visit to Budapest 125 00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:50,120 Speaker 2: with just days to go until the vote. 126 00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:53,560 Speaker 8: What has happened in the midst of this election campaign 127 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:57,920 Speaker 8: is one of the worst examples of foreign election interference 128 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:00,280 Speaker 8: that I've ever seen, or ever even read about. 129 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:03,120 Speaker 1: The bureaucrats and Brussels. 130 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:06,039 Speaker 8: Have tried to destroy the economy of Hungary. They have 131 00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:10,720 Speaker 8: tried to make Hungary less energy independent. They have tried 132 00:07:10,760 --> 00:07:13,640 Speaker 8: to drive up costs for Hungarian consumers. 133 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:17,480 Speaker 1: And they've done it all because they hate this guy. Landscape. 134 00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:20,040 Speaker 2: No evidence for his claims, and no E leader has 135 00:07:20,040 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 2: campaigned alongside the opposition in Hungary Orban His party is 136 00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:27,840 Speaker 2: trailing the TiSER Party in independent polling. However, there have 137 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:30,280 Speaker 2: been a flurry of reports on Russia's efforts to keep 138 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 2: Orban in office. Bloomberg or obtained a transcript of a 139 00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:36,880 Speaker 2: phone call with Vladimir Putin in October in which Orban 140 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 2: compared himself to a mouse that helps the lion. And 141 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:45,120 Speaker 2: those are your top stories on the markets that relief rally. 142 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:47,280 Speaker 2: On the news coming out of the Middle East, We're 143 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:51,119 Speaker 2: looking at oil prices slumping brentkrewe down thirteen percent, ninety 144 00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:55,120 Speaker 2: five dollars at Barrow Wi fourteen percent lower. The Mscirish 145 00:07:55,120 --> 00:07:58,280 Speaker 2: Pacific Index up by four point nine percent. European stock 146 00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:00,520 Speaker 2: futures are surging as well, up by five five point 147 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:04,560 Speaker 2: one percent for eurostocks fifty futures Smpemani's on Wall Street 148 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 2: two point four percent higher as well. The Bloomberg Dollar 149 00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:09,840 Speaker 2: Spot Index, one of the assets has been strengthening during 150 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:13,080 Speaker 2: this war, eight tens of one percent weaker now this morning. 151 00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:16,400 Speaker 2: The Euro's up seven tens training at one sixteen seventy seven. 152 00:08:16,520 --> 00:08:19,720 Speaker 2: US Treasury yields also down five basis points. Some of 153 00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 2: the inflation fears around the conflict easing as well. 154 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:23,480 Speaker 1: Now. 155 00:08:23,480 --> 00:08:25,480 Speaker 2: We full coverage of the latest from the Middle East 156 00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:27,480 Speaker 2: this morning of what it means for energy prices, and 157 00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:29,520 Speaker 2: in a few minutes more on jd Vance's trip to 158 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:33,320 Speaker 2: Hungary and those accusations he made about election interference. But 159 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:35,600 Speaker 2: the market reaction, in the words of our market's Live team, 160 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:38,720 Speaker 2: has been spectacular. There are, of course, many details still 161 00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:41,880 Speaker 2: not known about this ceasefire between Iran and the US. 162 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:44,080 Speaker 2: The Bloomberg Economics team were quick to put together some 163 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:46,240 Speaker 2: of the key questions that now need to be answered, 164 00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:49,559 Speaker 2: including exactly what the ceasefar covers and what the basis 165 00:08:49,640 --> 00:08:53,400 Speaker 2: is for further negotiations from here. Our chief geoeconomics analyst, 166 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:56,240 Speaker 2: Jennifer Welsh, has also been tracking Trump's rate of following 167 00:08:56,280 --> 00:08:59,080 Speaker 2: through on his threats to attack other countries. It's around 168 00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:01,800 Speaker 2: fifty percent for his second term, up from twenty percent 169 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 2: in the first time. You'll find more from Jennifer and 170 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:07,199 Speaker 2: her team on the Bloomberg terminal. Well, let's get into 171 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 2: the details now of the ceasefar deal, as Iran has 172 00:09:09,559 --> 00:09:12,280 Speaker 2: continued to launch strikes against targets across the Middle East. 173 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:15,600 Speaker 2: This morning, our managing editor for the Middle East and 174 00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:18,640 Speaker 2: North Africa, On Aurant joins us now for. 175 00:09:18,760 --> 00:09:20,640 Speaker 1: More, Honor, good morning. 176 00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:23,560 Speaker 2: First of all, what do we know then about what Iran, Israel, 177 00:09:23,600 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 2: and the United States have agreed to. 178 00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:30,320 Speaker 9: We know that Iran demands it's continued control of the 179 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:34,760 Speaker 9: Strait of Hormuz and acceptance of its neatly enrichment activities 180 00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:38,600 Speaker 9: and the lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions, as 181 00:09:38,640 --> 00:09:41,360 Speaker 9: well as a withdrawal of US combat forces from the 182 00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:46,679 Speaker 9: region as part of this truth agreement. The statement made 183 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:52,560 Speaker 9: by Trump himself didn't include a detailed breakdown of Iranian dements, 184 00:09:52,559 --> 00:09:54,880 Speaker 9: but it did say that it is aware of what 185 00:09:54,920 --> 00:09:58,319 Speaker 9: Iran wants, and it says well. Trump said that those 186 00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:03,920 Speaker 9: demands are a logical start point, a reasonable basis for 187 00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:08,960 Speaker 9: negotiations going forward to reach a comprehensive peace steal, rather 188 00:10:09,000 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 9: than just. 189 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:12,079 Speaker 1: A two week truth in the fighting. 190 00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:15,800 Speaker 2: But Iran is still attacking its neighbors this morning. Are 191 00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:18,120 Speaker 2: we clear on when the ceasefire starts? 192 00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 9: Well, there was somewhat oddly no mention of when exactly 193 00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:28,360 Speaker 9: the ceasefire starts in either Trump's posts overnight or in 194 00:10:28,400 --> 00:10:32,240 Speaker 9: any statement coming out of Iran. Only Pakistan's Prime minister, 195 00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:35,560 Speaker 9: who was one of the key mediators that made this 196 00:10:36,080 --> 00:10:41,239 Speaker 9: true still plausible, said that the ceasefire would begin immediately. 197 00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:45,280 Speaker 9: Even so as you said, we saw attacks being reported 198 00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 9: by Bahrain, Cuwait, the United Arab Emirates as well as Israel. 199 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:54,880 Speaker 9: But such lags are typically in conflicts like this, where 200 00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:59,239 Speaker 9: strikes do continue for some time after a ceasefire announcement 201 00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:01,920 Speaker 9: before they gradually declined to zero. 202 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:06,240 Speaker 2: Another point of confusion in this is the situation in Lebanon. 203 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:09,360 Speaker 2: Benjamin eataniaho these early Prime Minister says the deal doesn't 204 00:11:09,520 --> 00:11:13,080 Speaker 2: cover Lebanon. Of course, the Israeli military has been striking 205 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:16,800 Speaker 2: hesbelinked targets in that country. But this appears to contradict 206 00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:18,160 Speaker 2: to what Pakistan said earlier. 207 00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:21,840 Speaker 9: Yeah, it does contradict what Pakistan said. As you said, 208 00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:25,280 Speaker 9: Pakistani Prime Minister very clearly said that the ceasefire deal 209 00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:28,120 Speaker 9: was agreed to, that was agreed to buy Iran and 210 00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:32,120 Speaker 9: the US does cover all their allies, which in this 211 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:34,880 Speaker 9: case means Israel on the side of the US and 212 00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:37,280 Speaker 9: proxy groups in the region on the side of Iran, 213 00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:41,360 Speaker 9: and it does extend to Lebanon, which was immediately disputed 214 00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:46,800 Speaker 9: by Benjamin Nataniyahu because israecimply sees Lebanon or the threat 215 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:50,280 Speaker 9: coming from there as a national security priority, especially since 216 00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:53,880 Speaker 9: after what happened in October twenty three, so it will 217 00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:57,320 Speaker 9: continue its war, I guess has in Lebanon, and that 218 00:11:57,640 --> 00:12:01,520 Speaker 9: will probably be a key source of because Iran made 219 00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:05,400 Speaker 9: it very clear that it expects all battles against its 220 00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:08,559 Speaker 9: allied militia group in the region to come to an end. 221 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:11,480 Speaker 2: And what do we know about what brought around to 222 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:15,440 Speaker 2: this negotiating table and to this ceasefire agreement? Was it 223 00:12:15,520 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 2: Donald Trump's threats that a whole civilization would die if 224 00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:21,040 Speaker 2: they didn't agree. 225 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 9: Trump's threats in general, Maybe not exactly the last one, 226 00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:28,040 Speaker 9: which seems to have caused a disruption that these brief 227 00:12:28,040 --> 00:12:32,240 Speaker 9: disruption negotiations last night, but Trump's threats in general have 228 00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:36,199 Speaker 9: played a role, that's for sure, because Iran already sustained 229 00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:39,439 Speaker 9: severe damages from this war, and that is a fact 230 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 9: that's almost forgotten because of its surprising ability to continue 231 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:47,440 Speaker 9: to basically launch missile and drone strikes on Israel and 232 00:12:47,480 --> 00:12:50,440 Speaker 9: Arab states in the Gulf. But let's not forget that 233 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:53,160 Speaker 9: over five thousand people have already been killed in this war, 234 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:56,320 Speaker 9: and more than three quarters of that took place in Iran. 235 00:12:56,440 --> 00:13:00,280 Speaker 9: So definitely, Iran does not want, does not need more action. 236 00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:03,800 Speaker 9: So in that sense we can assume that Trump's threats 237 00:13:03,880 --> 00:13:06,280 Speaker 9: have played a key role. But what is also interesting 238 00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:09,840 Speaker 9: to note is that Trump earlier this morning taught AFP 239 00:13:10,040 --> 00:13:13,400 Speaker 9: that he thinks China may have played a role in 240 00:13:13,559 --> 00:13:18,000 Speaker 9: encouraging Iran to come to the negotiating table and stay there. 241 00:13:18,200 --> 00:13:21,679 Speaker 9: So that's probably a combination of those two factors. 242 00:13:21,760 --> 00:13:24,480 Speaker 2: Stephen okay anor thank you very much for bringing us 243 00:13:24,520 --> 00:13:26,640 Speaker 2: the details as we know them at this point, our 244 00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:29,200 Speaker 2: managing editor for the Middle East and North Africa on 245 00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:32,400 Speaker 2: our aunt. No oil prices have plunged on Donald Trump's 246 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:35,120 Speaker 2: comments that the c's fire will mean a temporary reopening 247 00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:37,640 Speaker 2: of the Strait of Horrmus shipping lane. Let's bring in 248 00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:40,440 Speaker 2: Stephen Stoptonski, who leads our team covering Energy and Asia 249 00:13:40,480 --> 00:13:43,040 Speaker 2: for more. Stephen, how clear is the situation now for 250 00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:45,679 Speaker 2: the Strait of Horror moves? Do we know what conditions 251 00:13:45,880 --> 00:13:48,079 Speaker 2: ships may be allowed to pass it? 252 00:13:48,080 --> 00:13:51,160 Speaker 10: It's pretty unclear, to be absolutely honest, I mean I 253 00:13:51,160 --> 00:13:54,719 Speaker 10: think there is. So there are some reports out the 254 00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:58,800 Speaker 10: initial news, you know, is indicating that at least on 255 00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:03,040 Speaker 10: the US and and Iranian side, that they are opening 256 00:14:03,120 --> 00:14:07,319 Speaker 10: the strait, But Iran has said that there are some conditions, 257 00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:13,320 Speaker 10: which includes coordination with armedforces and technical limitations, whatever exactly 258 00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:16,360 Speaker 10: that means. There's also been an AP report saying that 259 00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:18,840 Speaker 10: there could be tolls involved from both their Iranian and 260 00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:22,280 Speaker 10: an Omani side, So this is going to be a 261 00:14:22,280 --> 00:14:24,520 Speaker 10: bit of a jam. There are eight hundred ships within 262 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:27,480 Speaker 10: the Persian Gulf sort of trapped there. How do they 263 00:14:27,520 --> 00:14:30,640 Speaker 10: go through? What order are they going to take? How 264 00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:32,720 Speaker 10: do they make sure that they're taking the right route? 265 00:14:32,840 --> 00:14:35,360 Speaker 10: How is Iran going to negotiate with every ship? They 266 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:37,360 Speaker 10: only have so much capacity there, So I think a 267 00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:40,440 Speaker 10: lot of questions come from how many vessels will actually 268 00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:43,120 Speaker 10: be able to go through on a daily basis during 269 00:14:43,160 --> 00:14:45,000 Speaker 10: this two weeks ceasefire. 270 00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:47,120 Speaker 2: Of course you've seen this major reaction in terms of 271 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:50,680 Speaker 2: oil prices, but what does a two week reopening, as 272 00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:53,560 Speaker 2: does the current plan mean for energy markets? How much 273 00:14:53,880 --> 00:14:56,960 Speaker 2: oil and liquified natural gas can we actually gotten out 274 00:14:57,000 --> 00:14:58,160 Speaker 2: of the straits in that time? 275 00:14:58,400 --> 00:15:00,120 Speaker 10: So I think I think there are two ways to 276 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:03,600 Speaker 10: look at the oil price reaction. So first, yes, you know, 277 00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:05,920 Speaker 10: the idea that the Austraate of war Moos will be open, 278 00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:11,120 Speaker 10: could theoretically increase output for oil. Right, so normally when 279 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:13,560 Speaker 10: there is an a war, the conduit is twenty percent 280 00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:17,320 Speaker 10: of seaborne oil and twenty percent of LNG exports. If 281 00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:19,480 Speaker 10: they do reach that level, you could you know, one 282 00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:22,200 Speaker 10: hundred percent reopening of formers. You you could see that, 283 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:24,280 Speaker 10: but I think there is an expectation that there won't 284 00:15:24,320 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 10: be a full reopen and you could be sort of 285 00:15:27,760 --> 00:15:31,160 Speaker 10: still throadled to some degree, so you could see shipments. 286 00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:33,080 Speaker 10: Instead of a huge flow of oil, you could see 287 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:36,200 Speaker 10: a handful of shipments go through. That would provide may 288 00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:39,280 Speaker 10: not so much a big physical amount of oil going 289 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:42,320 Speaker 10: into the market, but more something symbolic showing that those 290 00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:44,680 Speaker 10: flows are increasing. I think when you look at the 291 00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:46,880 Speaker 10: big decrease in prices, though, the second thing to look 292 00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:49,720 Speaker 10: at is not so much more moves, but the fact 293 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:53,520 Speaker 10: that hopefully there will be no more damage to infrastructure 294 00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:55,960 Speaker 10: across the region. I think that's one of the big 295 00:15:56,080 --> 00:16:00,200 Speaker 10: risks that risk premium built into Brent in WTI is 296 00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:03,440 Speaker 10: the fear that as this war continued every day, there 297 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:06,600 Speaker 10: is risk that Iran could retaliate on a neighbor in 298 00:16:06,640 --> 00:16:10,320 Speaker 10: the Persian Gulf and hit an oil platform, a gas 299 00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:14,600 Speaker 10: platform a refinery, and now that this ceasefire is in place, 300 00:16:15,160 --> 00:16:18,040 Speaker 10: there is an expectation that that risk evaporates. So that's 301 00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:20,240 Speaker 10: why you're seeing oil prices fall below one hundred dollars 302 00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:22,760 Speaker 10: into the ninety dollars range. We are still not back 303 00:16:22,800 --> 00:16:25,680 Speaker 10: to where we were before the war began in February, 304 00:16:26,040 --> 00:16:28,960 Speaker 10: where we're closer to sixty seventy dollars rent. So I 305 00:16:28,960 --> 00:16:31,120 Speaker 10: think there is still a wait. 306 00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 1: And see thing to. 307 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:36,600 Speaker 10: Kind of gauging how much more Moses is able to open. 308 00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:41,080 Speaker 10: That is the limiting factor for oil prices to fall 309 00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:44,360 Speaker 10: back to sort of where we were at the beginning. 310 00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:47,920 Speaker 2: Okay, still plenty of details to watch there too, Steven, 311 00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:49,920 Speaker 2: thank you very much for bringing us the latest. Steven 312 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 2: Stopchinsky there leading our team covering energy in Asia. 313 00:16:54,800 --> 00:16:55,440 Speaker 1: Stay with us. 314 00:16:55,560 --> 00:16:59,680 Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Daybreak Europe coming up after this. The 315 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 2: Vice President Jade Vans has accused the European Union of 316 00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:07,320 Speaker 2: interfering in Hungary's election. Vance was speaking alongside Hungarian Prime 317 00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:10,480 Speaker 2: Minister Victor Orban, who he called on voters to support. 318 00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:13,600 Speaker 2: Independent polls show Orban is on track to lose power 319 00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:16,800 Speaker 2: in Sunday's vote. Joining US now for more Pyotr Skolomawski, 320 00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:20,600 Speaker 2: who leads our team covering Central and Eastern Europe. Pyotr, 321 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:24,359 Speaker 2: what exactly did JD Vance say about election interference and 322 00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:26,639 Speaker 2: is there any evidence to back up his claims? 323 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:30,480 Speaker 1: The simple answer is there's none, and he didn't really 324 00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:35,879 Speaker 1: provide any evidence other than claim that European bureaucers have 325 00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:37,680 Speaker 1: interfered in the election. He said that. 326 00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:40,640 Speaker 11: He also said that the bureaucrats in Brussels have tried 327 00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:44,840 Speaker 11: to destroy the economy of Hungary, make it less energy independent, 328 00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:48,320 Speaker 11: they tried to drive up costs for Hungarian consumers also, 329 00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:51,640 Speaker 11: and basically said they've done it all because they hate 330 00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:53,879 Speaker 11: this guy. And none of this is actually backed up 331 00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:56,720 Speaker 11: by any evidence, because as a matter of fact, if 332 00:17:56,760 --> 00:18:01,880 Speaker 11: you think about the Hungarian economy, the fact that it's it's. 333 00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:03,280 Speaker 1: Not performing very well. 334 00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:05,240 Speaker 11: The reason for that is that the economy is quite 335 00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:08,240 Speaker 11: corrupt at the moment, the most corrupt economy in the EU. 336 00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:12,199 Speaker 11: It lost access to euphunds because of the corruption of 337 00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:15,120 Speaker 11: the state and all of that happened under Victor Orban 338 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:19,520 Speaker 11: during his sixteen year rules. So Jdvans didn't really provide 339 00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:22,640 Speaker 11: any evidence to back up any of those claims other 340 00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:26,480 Speaker 11: than just to throw his weight behind behind Orburn, who 341 00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:29,359 Speaker 11: he basically sees as someone who is very close in 342 00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:32,720 Speaker 11: terms of what he described as conservative values, as someone 343 00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:35,760 Speaker 11: who stands for Western values, as he put it. So 344 00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:39,320 Speaker 11: that's basically where the arguments replaced. 345 00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:43,399 Speaker 2: The Trump administration, including the President himself, have been vocal supporters, 346 00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:45,680 Speaker 2: as you say, of Victor Orban and his party. They're 347 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:48,560 Speaker 2: trailing in the independent polls that have been carried out 348 00:18:48,600 --> 00:18:52,680 Speaker 2: and hungry how much sway does the Trump administration support 349 00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:54,040 Speaker 2: have in the election. 350 00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:57,960 Speaker 11: Well, obviously we won't know that until after the election. 351 00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:04,040 Speaker 11: But of the way Victorburen can play that to his 352 00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:07,280 Speaker 11: electorate is by by showing, look, we're the country of 353 00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:11,359 Speaker 11: ten million people. We've just seen Vice President of the 354 00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:15,359 Speaker 11: US coming in. We've also seen during that same rally 355 00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:20,960 Speaker 11: where with Jdvans that he also phoned President Trump who 356 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:26,000 Speaker 11: he put on the speakerphone, and also President Trump endorsed Orban. 357 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:29,040 Speaker 11: He basically said, I love Victor Orban. We also had 358 00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:31,960 Speaker 11: other officials from the US coming in. So obviously he 359 00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:34,359 Speaker 11: can point to the fact, you know, it's a small country, 360 00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:37,560 Speaker 11: but we play an important role. And this is evidence 361 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:40,520 Speaker 11: of that, but you know, against that, there's a simple 362 00:19:40,560 --> 00:19:44,720 Speaker 11: reality of what the situation on the ground, where economy 363 00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:48,240 Speaker 11: is in a poor state, it's heavily dependent on Russian oil. 364 00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:51,719 Speaker 11: Around ninety percent of gas and oil still comes from Russia. 365 00:19:51,760 --> 00:19:55,800 Speaker 11: And that's basically the disillusion meant that people are feeling. 366 00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:58,800 Speaker 11: And that's why suddenly, after all these sixteen years and 367 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:03,280 Speaker 11: very close a situation where Orban has very much controlled 368 00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:06,920 Speaker 11: the economy and the country, we still see a huge 369 00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:10,119 Speaker 11: support for the opposition, for the for the rival who 370 00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:14,000 Speaker 11: who came pretty much out of nowhere and is if 371 00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:16,840 Speaker 11: the opinion polls can be can be trusted, is on 372 00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:20,040 Speaker 11: course to actually even win a super majority in this election. 373 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:22,960 Speaker 11: So we're going to see to what extent is US 374 00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:26,240 Speaker 11: interference or you know, if you call it support is 375 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:27,879 Speaker 11: going to play in favor of Forban. 376 00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:30,359 Speaker 2: Of course, it's still several days more campaigning to go 377 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:33,199 Speaker 2: before voters go to the polls on Sunday. Russia's war 378 00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:37,000 Speaker 2: in Ukraine has been central to this election campaign. Bloomberg 379 00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:40,280 Speaker 2: obtained the transcript of a call between Urban and Vlasimir Putin, 380 00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:43,480 Speaker 2: which showed the closeness of their relationship. What's been the 381 00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:45,080 Speaker 2: reaction to that reporting in Hungary. 382 00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 11: Indeed, so our reporting show was it was a call 383 00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:51,280 Speaker 11: between Victor Ban and Vladimir Putin, where Victor Urban pretty 384 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:56,439 Speaker 11: much described himself as offering his assistance to to Vadim 385 00:20:56,520 --> 00:21:00,520 Speaker 11: Putin and calling himself a mouse Russia's lion. Now we 386 00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:04,160 Speaker 11: haven't seen much in terms of reaction in the media, 387 00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:07,720 Speaker 11: which also tells you the story about how much control 388 00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:10,760 Speaker 11: and how much sway the government has over over the 389 00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:12,440 Speaker 11: media in Hungary. 390 00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:13,960 Speaker 1: But we've heard from Victor Orban. 391 00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:18,000 Speaker 11: He gave this a very brief comment to Bloomberg where 392 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:20,760 Speaker 11: he said, I would say the same to Donald Trump 393 00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:24,399 Speaker 11: and size matters, which obviously tells you an interesting situation 394 00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:27,879 Speaker 11: about this election where you know, the two powers that 395 00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:32,159 Speaker 11: have clear stake in urban winning are actually Donald Trump 396 00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:35,439 Speaker 11: and Vladimir Pula, which is I would say, quite rare 397 00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:39,720 Speaker 11: to see certain situations where you know, interests of Russia 398 00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:42,640 Speaker 11: and US coalesce. But that's the world we're in, and 399 00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:46,040 Speaker 11: at this point, yeah, it's it's it's quite fascinating how 400 00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:49,760 Speaker 11: this country, or and how Victor Orban has built his 401 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,840 Speaker 11: state into into something that that matters so much. But 402 00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:56,480 Speaker 11: obviously how this plays out will matter to Ukraine. As 403 00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:59,280 Speaker 11: you said, Ukraine and war in Ukraine has played a 404 00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:03,760 Speaker 11: central role. Orban has blocked ninety billion in you loans 405 00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:06,600 Speaker 11: to Ukraine which are crucial for this country to stay 406 00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:11,040 Speaker 11: afloat and fight against Russia. And if he loses the election, 407 00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:13,200 Speaker 11: probably this money will be unblocked. 408 00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:14,200 Speaker 1: If he doesn't, we're. 409 00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:17,200 Speaker 11: Probably in inatptive territory for EU and how it's going 410 00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:18,760 Speaker 11: to support Ukraine going forward. 411 00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:23,240 Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the 412 00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:26,360 Speaker 2: stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond. 413 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:30,680 Speaker 12: Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple, Spotify, 414 00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:32,800 Speaker 12: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 415 00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:35,920 Speaker 2: You can also listen live each morning on London Dab Radio, 416 00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:38,600 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. 417 00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:41,439 Speaker 12: Our flagship New York station is also available on your 418 00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:46,199 Speaker 12: Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 419 00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:49,080 Speaker 2: I'm Caroline Hepka and I'm Stephen Carroll. Join us again 420 00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:51,720 Speaker 2: tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start 421 00:22:51,760 --> 00:23:01,080 Speaker 2: your day right here on Bloomberg day Break Europe.