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Speaker 1: Now here's a highlight from Coast to Coast AM on iHeartRadio.

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Speaker 2: And welcome back to Coast to Coast George Noory with

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Speaker 2: Sean Patrick Caslt. Sean, how would you envision a war

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Speaker 2: with China unfolding?

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Speaker 3: What would happen?

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Speaker 4: So you've already I've already mentioned two items that you're

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Speaker 4: starting to see. So rhetoric would amp up prior to

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Speaker 4: these elections, and we talked about that a little bit.

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Speaker 4: There's also the aggressive and assistant reconnaissance. We talked about

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Speaker 4: the spy balloons flying over. You're likely to see more

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Speaker 4: of that. Then you would see something that the Chinese

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Speaker 4: would declare as a military exercise, much like they did

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Speaker 4: back in twenty twenty two when Nancy Pelosi visited the island,

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Speaker 4: or Congresswoman Pelosi. And so it'll start out as a

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Speaker 4: military exer exercise that unfolds into a blockade. And that's

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Speaker 4: significant because Taiwan imports nearly ninety seven percent of its energy,

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Speaker 4: so it'll be particularly vulnerable to that and only sea, yeah,

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Speaker 4: just around Taiwan. So they would just put a ring,

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Speaker 4: like a literal ring around Taiwan and both the western

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Speaker 4: coast and the eastern coast, and Taiwan only has about

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Speaker 4: two hundred days of stockpiles of gas colon oil, so

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Speaker 4: that's kind of how it would unfold. And then the

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Speaker 4: Chinese might have a sort of a Gulf of Funkin

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Speaker 4: style ruse that would likely set things off. So a

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Speaker 4: Chinese fishing vessel, you know, gets targeted in some sort

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Speaker 4: of a false flag. The immediate response, of course, of

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Speaker 4: the United States would have you know, assets in the region,

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Speaker 4: would probably send several aircraft carrier battle groups to the region.

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Speaker 4: But you would almost immediately see a Chinese cyber campaign

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Speaker 4: that would attack West Coast infrastructure. So usually these things

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Speaker 4: spot cyber attacks are incremental because you know, you don't

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Speaker 4: want to wipe out the US grid and cause a

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Speaker 4: nuclear war and in response, right, so what has been

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Speaker 4: observed There was a report in the Washington Post recently

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Speaker 4: that there was a campaign that was discovered called volt

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Speaker 4: Typhoon that was detected a year ago by the US government,

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Speaker 4: and in it, the Chinese appeared to have selected targets

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Speaker 4: that would have would likely complicate a US response to

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Speaker 4: an invasion of Taiwan. So you're talking electric utilities in Hawaii,

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Speaker 4: telecommunications in Guam, which is the closest US territory to

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Speaker 4: the Taiwan Strait, and other similar targets that would you know,

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Speaker 4: vastly complicate a US response. Then there's also the possibility

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Speaker 4: that you would see some industrial sabotage in the United States. So,

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Speaker 4: just to give you another data point, in the last year,

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Speaker 4: more than twenty four thousand Chinese citizens across the border

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Speaker 4: from Mexico, more than in the eating ten years combined. Now,

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Speaker 4: many of these people are simply looking for a better

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Speaker 4: life in America, but a small minority could easily be

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Speaker 4: potential saboteurs activated in the case of a Taiwan invasion, Yeah,

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Speaker 4: exactly exactly. I'm not saying they are, but you know,

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Speaker 4: I would be surprised if the Chinese didn't have that capability.

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Speaker 3: And do we have that? Do we have that there?

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Speaker 4: Well, Well, in Taiwan, we would certainly have, you know,

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Speaker 4: people there that would be able to advise, and we'd

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Speaker 4: be able to send special forces almost immediately if they're

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Speaker 4: not already there. I'm sure there's some CIA personnel and

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Speaker 4: things like that. Now, if you're talking in China, the

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Speaker 4: answer would very likely be yes as well. But that

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Speaker 4: would only come into play if the crisis expanded beyond

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Speaker 4: that kind of limited focus on Taiwan, where things, you know,

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Speaker 4: have the potential to spiral out of control. But what

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Speaker 4: would happen after that, Like once, you know, when we

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Speaker 4: really know that the Chinese were intent on season the island,

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Speaker 4: you would see missile attacks on high value targets on

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Speaker 4: for most of the main Taiwanese island. China has about

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Speaker 4: six hundred ballistic end or cruise missile launchers. Now they're

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Speaker 4: not all opposite the strait, but a great deal of

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Speaker 4: the mar And what that does is, you know, could

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Speaker 4: cause chaos destroy targets that they would need to take out.

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Speaker 4: Then you would also likely have covert infiltration of formosa

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Speaker 4: by operatives, you know, and this is just an example

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Speaker 4: of for instance, hiding and shipping containers. If you look

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Speaker 4: at a kind of a classic shipping container ship, it

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Speaker 4: would take about thirty hours to traverse the strait. So

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Speaker 4: I would imagine some of those individuals would already I mean,

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Speaker 4: and I'm sure China already has assets on the island,

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Speaker 4: just like we already have assets in China. And then

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Speaker 4: the focused after that would be on the seizure of

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Speaker 4: approximately twenty key beaches and landing zone. So the thing

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Speaker 4: that make Taiwan very difficult to take in addition to

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Speaker 4: crossing the strait and dealing with the maritime issues you

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Speaker 4: have with large waves and getting infrastructure onto the island

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Speaker 4: is it's also very mountainous terrain, so the Chinese would

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Speaker 4: have to see some targets from the inside, also bribe

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Speaker 4: politic key politicians and things like that, which they already do, right.

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Speaker 4: They fly to the mainland China and they do all

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Speaker 4: sorts of things to kind of sweeten the pot. So

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Speaker 4: whether or not that plays out, it all depends. But

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Speaker 4: it's a matter of time. If China is able to

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Speaker 4: seize the island before we're able to reinforce it, then

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Speaker 4: things get increasingly bad for the United States.

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Speaker 3: Could day kant work at all?

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Speaker 4: Shown well, I don't think either side has been the

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Speaker 4: best of actors, right, I mean, we do things that

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Speaker 4: kind of put egg in. For instance, like the United

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Speaker 4: States did not do a good job of diversifying its

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Speaker 4: risk by concentrating the majority of the world semiconductors. And

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Speaker 4: this is not just a policy issue, but it's you know,

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Speaker 4: US LED companies and things like that. So it just

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Speaker 4: makes us particularly vulnerable. The other thing that the Chinese

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Speaker 4: have done is they've engage in what is termed gray

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Speaker 4: zone warfare, were they go just up to the line

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Speaker 4: of what is considered an active of war and then stop.

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Speaker 4: So if you take their bases and assets in the

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Speaker 4: Spratley Islands, for instance, in the South China Sea, that's

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Speaker 4: a perfect example of some of the things that they've

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Speaker 4: been doing. And that's kind of how this thing would

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Speaker 4: kick off. They would, you know, like I said, treat

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Speaker 4: it as if they were running a naval exercise and

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Speaker 4: then by the time all their assets are in place,

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Speaker 4: then you know, the then the war would kick off.

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Speaker 4: So you know, could they be talked down, Yeah, I'm

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Speaker 4: sure at the very beginning of the episode, right, there

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Speaker 4: would be feverish diplomatic discussions and things like that. But

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Speaker 4: just like what happened in Russia Ukraine, right, once you

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Speaker 4: put that many assets in place, you're committed, right, we did.

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Speaker 4: We had the same sort of diplomatic activity with Russia

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Speaker 4: before they invaded Ukraine and once Putin had one hundred

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Speaker 4: and fifty thousand troops in place. Right, It's just kind

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Speaker 4: of like the trains in World War One. They're already

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Speaker 4: set to go, and there's really no no no holding

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Speaker 4: back or or reversing the course of history.

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Speaker 3: Tell us about Taiwan prior to World War Two when Japan.

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Speaker 4: Took it over, well, at the time, it wasn't populated

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Speaker 4: by Shang Tai Shek's forces, right, that fled after World

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Speaker 4: War Two when Mao took over China, So it was

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Speaker 4: a completely different sort of situation where and they were

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Speaker 4: had less ability to defend themselves, right, So they weren't

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Speaker 4: armed by the United States government over the last several decades,

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Speaker 4: they weren't trained by the United States government, at least

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Speaker 4: not in appreciable numbers. So you know, there's a fundamental

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Speaker 4: difference between what Taiwan is today and what it was

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Speaker 4: back then.

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Speaker 3: Does China believe it's theirs?

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Speaker 4: Absolutely? In fact, Jee's comments at the beginning of the

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Speaker 4: year just said that reunification is inevitable and we haven't

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Speaker 4: helped matters by pursuing a policy of strategic ambiguity. Right,

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Speaker 4: So Taiwan doesn't have a slot at the United Nations, right.

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Speaker 4: You know, our current president has openly said that we

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Speaker 4: would defend Taiwan if attacked which, by the way, I

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Speaker 4: think is an honest answer, right, But before that there

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Speaker 4: was always this you know, not year, but this policy

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Speaker 4: of strategic ambiguity where we didn't overtly say or recognized

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Speaker 4: Taiwan at least overtly as an independent nation.

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Speaker 2: Are we on the verge of a World War three?

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Speaker 2: We look at Russia and Ukraine, we look at Israel

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Speaker 2: and its situation. All we need now is China to

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Speaker 2: get involved in Taiwan, and we've got We've got World

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Speaker 2: War three here Sean.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's part of their calculus there being

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Speaker 4: the Chinese, which is if they ever intend to seize

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Speaker 4: Taiwan by force, next year is the kind of the

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Speaker 4: golden year for them, you know, if you'll recall, at

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Speaker 4: least in I think last year, their population started to decline,

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Speaker 4: and their population is not getting any younger. I believe that,

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Speaker 4: you know, by you know, over the over the decade,

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Speaker 4: it's increasingly becoming older population. So they're going to have,

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Speaker 4: you know, an issue where they're not going to be

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Speaker 4: able to supply the soldiers in appreciable numbers in the

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Speaker 4: next decade or so. So if GI wants to kind

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Speaker 4: of exercise this option, next year is probably the best

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Speaker 4: year to do it.

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Speaker 3: Does Taiwan have any assets to defend itself?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, sure, sure, it's got, you know, some modern aircraft,

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Speaker 4: not as many as the Chinese. It has about one

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Speaker 4: hundred and sixty nine thousand troops and there are you know,

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Speaker 4: they're going to They also have you know, tunnels in

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Speaker 4: the mountains that are robust and can be defended. Most

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Speaker 4: of their air assets are going to be on the

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Speaker 4: eastern side of the island, which is separated by mountains,

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Speaker 4: and you know, because traditionally they expected the Chinese to

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Speaker 4: come in on the western side of the island, but

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Speaker 4: that you know, if you look at recent naval exercises,

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Speaker 4: that isn't necessarily the case. They have plenty of modern weapons,

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Speaker 4: but the problem with the Chinese is they just have

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Speaker 4: superior numbers. Now, what the Taiwanese have is they have

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Speaker 4: really rugged, rough terrain. They have a very narrow window

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Speaker 4: through which the Chinese can attack, and they have us

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Speaker 4: over the horizon that's willing to come to their defense.

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Speaker 4: But if the Chinese do it quit, things get really.

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Speaker 3: Difficult for us.

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Speaker 2: It's intriguing, no doubt, the whole thing is intriguing. And

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Speaker 2: in terms of China's moves, first, as a chess piece

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Speaker 2: on a board, who will it? What would they do

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Speaker 2: first try to attack Taiwan or what would they do?

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Speaker 4: So they're likely to start with the naval exercise right

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Speaker 4: to make it look like it's inert and it's there's

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Speaker 4: no threat. And then as they get all their assets

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Speaker 4: in place, then you have like a Gulf of Tonkin

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Speaker 4: sort of scenario where you know, they claim that the

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Speaker 4: Taiwanese fired on one of their vessels, and then things

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Speaker 4: start to escalate. That's when there's feverish diplomacy. And once

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Speaker 4: I think the Chinese assets are in place and they

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Speaker 4: begin the attack, which is with kind of these missile

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Speaker 4: strikes and you know, saboteurs inside you know, Taiwan or

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Speaker 4: for most of proper, then I think that the diplomatic

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Speaker 4: phase ends and then hopefully someone in the decision making

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Speaker 4: loop in the United States had already sent carriers the

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Speaker 4: instant that they had these military exercises, but it's you know,

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Speaker 4: it's going to be classic raizone warfare, right, They're just

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Speaker 4: going to kind of come to the very edge and

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Speaker 4: make it look ambiguous enough that we hesitate if.

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Speaker 2: The Taiwanese had a chance to vote on China being

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Speaker 2: their country, how do you think that vote would go?

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Speaker 4: They would vote in favor of not going to the Chinese.

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Speaker 4: I think the last survey I've seen was I think

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Speaker 4: eighty eighty six to eighty seven percent.

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Speaker 3: So it's huge, it's huge.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, after what the Chinese did with Taiwan or

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Speaker 4: with Hong Kong, Hong Kong. Yeah, there's not a huge

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Speaker 4: willingness for the Taiwanese to reunite with the Chinese.

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Speaker 2: Is Hong Kong a little more stable now than it

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Speaker 2: was a few years ago?

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Speaker 4: Sure, but that's after the Chinese cracked down and kind

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Speaker 4: of restricted speech and you know, kind of got control

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Speaker 4: of the political apparatus of power. So it's more stable,

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Speaker 4: but it's more stable because there's more Chinese control of

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Speaker 4: the situation.

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Speaker 3: Is this all about greed, Sean.

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Speaker 4: I think it's about pride in terms from the Chinese side, right.

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Speaker 4: I think the Chinese, you know, his historically for you know,

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Speaker 4: hundreds of years, if not thousands of years, Taiwan has

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Speaker 4: been part of China, and I think this is like

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Speaker 4: Putin and Ukraine. She looks at this as his legacy,

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Speaker 4: and g by the way, is the first person since

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Speaker 4: mal that has a third five year term, so I

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Speaker 4: think this is something. And he's publicly stated that he

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Speaker 4: intends to have Taiwan reunited with China by twenty forty nine. So,

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Speaker 4: like I said, if he chooses to take the aggressive route,

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Speaker 4: this is the time.

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Speaker 3: What does your gut tell you?

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Speaker 4: My gut tells me that if we start seeing you know,

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Speaker 4: increased activity surveillance, and the DPP wins the election, I'd

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Speaker 4: give it a forty to fifty percent chance that g

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Speaker 4: goes in.

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Speaker 2: Now, Donald Trump has always said it wouldn't happen under

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Speaker 2: his administration.

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Speaker 3: What do you think of that?

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Speaker 4: I think, I think that's true. But I don't think

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Speaker 4: that's but I think it's because he tended to be

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Speaker 4: a wild card. Right, So any longstanding US policy that

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Speaker 4: we had followed for you know, the last sixty years,

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Speaker 4: with Trump, it was all you know, it was all

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Speaker 4: it was all up to chance. Right. So for instance,

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Speaker 4: I don't think the Chinese were expecting a tariff right

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Speaker 4: when when Donald Trump was there, and the Biden administration

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Speaker 4: has continued to kind of increase or to increase the

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Speaker 4: distance between the United States and China. There just seems

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Speaker 4: to be a change in overall policy because you know,

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Speaker 4: if you look at this Thucydides trap right when you

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Speaker 4: had the emergence of Athens in the Peloponnesian Wars against

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Speaker 4: the dominant power at the time, Sparta, these things tend

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Speaker 4: to happen when you have a rising power, the incumbent

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Speaker 4: power has to help or has to manage this rise.

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Speaker 4: And it's almost as if the Chinese rise, while initially

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Speaker 4: was beneficial to both parties, is now seemed to be

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Speaker 4: a little bit more unstable than many policymakers had initially thought.

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