1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:01,800 Speaker 1: But du let getting a great stand. 2 00:00:01,800 --> 00:00:02,639 Speaker 2: I guess who does? 3 00:00:02,880 --> 00:00:03,600 Speaker 1: You never know what? 4 00:00:03,720 --> 00:00:07,920 Speaker 2: Too late, but job right the right, Jim mc clara, 5 00:00:08,280 --> 00:00:14,400 Speaker 2: much mc clara. That's Donald Trump referring to Federal Reserve 6 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:19,239 Speaker 2: Chairman Powell. Is too late. Hope your lower's rates. Well, 7 00:00:19,239 --> 00:00:23,200 Speaker 2: that's what's expected to happen today. And uh, we'll have 8 00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:25,520 Speaker 2: more on that coming up. A little bit later. Trump 9 00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:28,319 Speaker 2: headed over to England, where I'm watching live on TV 10 00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:32,320 Speaker 2: right now. You got people in funny outfits marching around 11 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:36,360 Speaker 2: playing bagpipes. Well, Trump and his model wife and a 12 00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:39,520 Speaker 2: fancy hat. Sit there and watch. We'd like to welcome 13 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:41,640 Speaker 2: to the arm Showing and Getty Show Lna heat Chen 14 00:00:41,760 --> 00:00:43,640 Speaker 2: to talk a little bit of politics. Lannie is the 15 00:00:43,800 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 2: David and Die and Stephie Fellow in American Public Policy 16 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:49,400 Speaker 2: Studies at the Hoover Institution, the Director of Domestic Policy 17 00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:52,760 Speaker 2: Studies at Stanford University, and a super smart guy about politics. 18 00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 2: How are you, Lonnie? 19 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:56,320 Speaker 1: I am doing well. Thanks check. 20 00:00:56,600 --> 00:01:00,120 Speaker 2: How How are you feeling in terms of optimism or 21 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:04,839 Speaker 2: pessimism for the country after the last week? Oh boy, well, 22 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:06,880 Speaker 2: I'm look. 23 00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:11,000 Speaker 1: I think there are always reasons to be optimistic about America. 24 00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:14,400 Speaker 1: But we're in a really challenging political moment right now, 25 00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 1: and we're in a very challenging time, I think as 26 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:20,399 Speaker 1: we look at how people are reacting and responding to politics, 27 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:24,000 Speaker 1: and obviously the tragic assassination of Charlie Kirk, which I know, 28 00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:26,720 Speaker 1: you know folks have talked about a lot. But what 29 00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:31,400 Speaker 1: I continue to reflect is the way in which this 30 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:36,119 Speaker 1: kind of violence impacts people who you know, aren't even 31 00:01:36,160 --> 00:01:38,959 Speaker 1: elected officials, you know, just people who are speaking up 32 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:40,520 Speaker 1: and expressing their points of view. 33 00:01:40,720 --> 00:01:44,199 Speaker 2: I noticed myself when I've been pulling into the parking 34 00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:45,959 Speaker 2: lots like is that people are always there. 35 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:50,440 Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, and you know, people shouldn't have to 36 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:53,520 Speaker 3: feel and think that way in a place like America, 37 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:59,160 Speaker 3: where I think we've always valued our ability to disagree civilly, 38 00:01:58,960 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 3: but those for slave. 39 00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:04,040 Speaker 1: Right and I don't know, so I'm jack, I'm a 40 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:08,440 Speaker 1: little concerned about where we are. But obviously, you know, 41 00:02:08,480 --> 00:02:09,960 Speaker 1: there are a lot of bright spots. I mean, if 42 00:02:10,440 --> 00:02:14,160 Speaker 1: you look at just I think a lot of people 43 00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:17,960 Speaker 1: have been truly compassionate in the wake of what happened. 44 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:20,680 Speaker 1: I think you've seen a lot of people who have 45 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:24,079 Speaker 1: decided that they want to be more involved in our 46 00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:26,560 Speaker 1: political system and not less. And I think that's all good, 47 00:02:26,639 --> 00:02:29,720 Speaker 1: but you know, I do worry a little bit about 48 00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:33,119 Speaker 1: how various things are making us more and more divided, 49 00:02:33,280 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 1: you know, whether it's social media or you know, the 50 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:38,880 Speaker 1: other thing I look at. I mean not to tie 51 00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:40,560 Speaker 1: a current event to all of this, but if you 52 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:43,280 Speaker 1: look at redistricting and all the battles over redistricting that 53 00:02:43,320 --> 00:02:43,800 Speaker 1: are happened. 54 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 3: What redistricting? 55 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:48,720 Speaker 1: That the way that politicians want to change the system 56 00:02:48,720 --> 00:02:51,280 Speaker 1: here in California and elsewhere, by the way Texas and 57 00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:54,760 Speaker 1: other places too, is to draw lines so that we 58 00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:58,280 Speaker 1: are living next to more people and voting next to 59 00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:00,640 Speaker 1: more people who we agree with other than who we 60 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:04,040 Speaker 1: disagree with, as opposed to putting us in conversation and 61 00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:06,040 Speaker 1: next to people with whom, you know, maybe we have 62 00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:09,480 Speaker 1: some political disagreements. I actually think it's good for us 63 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 1: to have opportunities to interact with people with whom we disagree, 64 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 1: and I think we need more of that in our society. 65 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:16,120 Speaker 1: Not less so. 66 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 2: Texas decides to redistrict in the in the middle of 67 00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:23,320 Speaker 2: the decade, and it's their state allows them to do 68 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 2: that legally, it's not unheard of it's not common. The 69 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 2: media studiously avoided mentioning to viewers who don't already know 70 00:03:33,880 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 2: that lots and lots of states have jerrymandered throughout our 71 00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:39,800 Speaker 2: country's history. And a lot of blue states are already 72 00:03:39,880 --> 00:03:43,480 Speaker 2: jerrymandered to death, including Illinois where they all ran to anyway, 73 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:45,960 Speaker 2: So that's an old story. So now California is going 74 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 2: to try to do it, or at least put it 75 00:03:47,720 --> 00:03:50,160 Speaker 2: on the ballot for November fourth and change the rules 76 00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:52,840 Speaker 2: here in California so that we could redistrict. Also, the 77 00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:55,200 Speaker 2: polling shows that it's going to go down in flames. 78 00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 2: Are you staying you think that's true? 79 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:01,520 Speaker 1: Well, I'm I think it's going to be close, actually 80 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:07,160 Speaker 1: really well, because I think the challenge is that anytime, 81 00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:10,400 Speaker 1: what you've seen with what Newsome and his allies have 82 00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:13,760 Speaker 1: done on this initiative is they have painted it as 83 00:04:13,920 --> 00:04:16,320 Speaker 1: not the issues that you framed it as, which are 84 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:19,320 Speaker 1: the right issues. They framed it as do you like 85 00:04:19,400 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 1: Donald Trump or not? And this will be the gosh, 86 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:25,560 Speaker 1: let's think about this. Now, there's probably the fourth or 87 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:28,279 Speaker 1: fifth election cycle in a row where they're going to 88 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:32,680 Speaker 1: run this playbook, and today they've been pretty successful with 89 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:36,159 Speaker 1: this point, and so I think that the worry for 90 00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 1: those of us who oppose uh this proposition and who 91 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:42,920 Speaker 1: don't believe it's the right course for California. I think 92 00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 1: the concern is that voters are not going to be 93 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 1: choosing whether they like. 94 00:04:47,320 --> 00:04:50,440 Speaker 2: Of course, you're right, You are so right. 95 00:04:50,760 --> 00:04:52,640 Speaker 1: It's going to be about do you like Trump or not? Yea, 96 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:56,560 Speaker 1: And I think in California, you know, and some some 97 00:04:56,560 --> 00:04:58,520 Speaker 1: some of your listeners might not lie hearing this, but 98 00:04:58,560 --> 00:05:00,599 Speaker 1: the reality is that Donald Trump is not the most 99 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:03,680 Speaker 1: popular guy in California, and so I think that the 100 00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:07,680 Speaker 1: dynamic they're setting up here with Prop fifty is a 101 00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 1: dynamic that could end up moving in their favor. Now 102 00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 1: there's a lot more information that's got to be distributed 103 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:17,360 Speaker 1: over the next couple of weeks, and we've got a 104 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:19,680 Speaker 1: little over a month until election day. So I have 105 00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:23,080 Speaker 1: some measure of hope that people will see through what 106 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:25,120 Speaker 1: this is. But I don't know, Jack, I think it's 107 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 1: gonna be pretty close. 108 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:28,800 Speaker 2: You're absolutely right. I can't believe silly me. I thought 109 00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:31,880 Speaker 2: it would be about the issue itself, But people wore 110 00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:35,640 Speaker 2: masks or didn't wear masks because it demonstrated are you 111 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:38,600 Speaker 2: for Trump or not not? Because of the disease. I mean, 112 00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:41,480 Speaker 2: there's all kinds of examples of that. You're four against 113 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 2: climate change because everything you can mention is Trump for 114 00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:48,039 Speaker 2: it or not. So yeah, of course this is going 115 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:48,359 Speaker 2: to be that. 116 00:05:48,960 --> 00:05:53,479 Speaker 1: Yeah. And I mean it's interesting. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who was 117 00:05:53,520 --> 00:05:57,960 Speaker 1: actually the governor who originally led California's effort to turn 118 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:02,080 Speaker 1: our redistricting away from the power politicians and to independent citizens, 119 00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:05,599 Speaker 1: he actually spoke up, you know, sort of really significantly 120 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:08,360 Speaker 1: about this the other day for the first time. And 121 00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:11,279 Speaker 1: you know, even you know, he's no great supporter of 122 00:06:11,320 --> 00:06:15,920 Speaker 1: Donald Trump, but he said, listen, the effort that Gavin 123 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:20,200 Speaker 1: Newsom and his allies are undertaking with this proposition, that 124 00:06:20,279 --> 00:06:22,960 Speaker 1: effort is really an effort to give the power to 125 00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:27,920 Speaker 1: redistrict back to politicians and away from kind of an independent, 126 00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:30,800 Speaker 1: more independent process, which we've had in California since two 127 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:34,360 Speaker 1: thousand and eight and twenty ten for congressional seats, we've 128 00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:36,960 Speaker 1: had this process in place. And by the way, the 129 00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:40,880 Speaker 1: process we've had has drawn complaints from both Republicans and Democrats, 130 00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:43,440 Speaker 1: which is how you know it's working. Okay, probably right, 131 00:06:44,040 --> 00:06:47,840 Speaker 1: and so it was interesting to see Schwarzenegger get involved. 132 00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:49,760 Speaker 1: I think a few other people may get involved who 133 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:53,000 Speaker 1: are not your usual suspects on this sort of thing. 134 00:06:53,040 --> 00:06:55,160 Speaker 1: So I hope that voters are able to at least 135 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:59,279 Speaker 1: understand what the basic question is, which is, do we 136 00:06:59,440 --> 00:07:03,440 Speaker 1: believe that district lines in California should be drawn by 137 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:06,400 Speaker 1: politicians or by citizens? And that's the fundamental question. 138 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:10,000 Speaker 2: So I see a lot of national pundits who aren't 139 00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:13,680 Speaker 2: from California that are really high and I mean people 140 00:07:13,720 --> 00:07:16,560 Speaker 2: that lean right, who are really high on Gavin Newsom's 141 00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:20,240 Speaker 2: chances of becoming president. I feel like, being closer to him, 142 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:21,920 Speaker 2: I'm not as high. Where are you on that? 143 00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:24,560 Speaker 1: Well, Look, I think there's two things here, Jack. First 144 00:07:24,560 --> 00:07:28,800 Speaker 1: of all, there's just an absence of strong leadership on 145 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:32,360 Speaker 1: the Democratic side of the aisle. I'd say, people who 146 00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:36,360 Speaker 1: are perceived to be out there, and you know, whether 147 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:38,640 Speaker 1: whatever you think of what Nisson's doing, he's out there. 148 00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:40,760 Speaker 1: So I think that's the first thing is just, you know, 149 00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:44,840 Speaker 1: politics of whores a vacuum, and Newsom has stepped into 150 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 1: that in a very real way. I think the other 151 00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:50,960 Speaker 1: reason that people sort of see him positively in particularly 152 00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:53,800 Speaker 1: given what he's been doing with this redistricting. Proposition is 153 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:56,440 Speaker 1: you've got to think about the composition of the Democratic 154 00:07:56,560 --> 00:08:01,240 Speaker 1: primary electorate and it's going to on average be more activist, 155 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:04,720 Speaker 1: more left of center, and Newsom's politics are a good 156 00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:07,240 Speaker 1: match for that. So I think that's probably why people 157 00:08:07,320 --> 00:08:09,640 Speaker 1: feel well at national level. 158 00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:11,840 Speaker 2: I agree, what are you doing? I could see him 159 00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 2: getting the nomination. That wouldn't surprise me. How can you 160 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:18,400 Speaker 2: run for president with I just feel like the homeless situation, 161 00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:21,080 Speaker 2: the people, the fact that people are leaving your state 162 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 2: for the first time ever, a lot of those things. 163 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:24,880 Speaker 2: How do you overcome that? Well? 164 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:26,640 Speaker 1: I think that's what a campaign is for, right. I 165 00:08:26,640 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 1: think people need to be reminded. It's very easy. We 166 00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:33,560 Speaker 1: have in politics recency bias, and so we look at, 167 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:36,880 Speaker 1: you know, what has someone done in the last sixty 168 00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:39,560 Speaker 1: days or last nine minutes, right, and we and we 169 00:08:39,640 --> 00:08:43,360 Speaker 1: forget about the French laundry, We forget about all, you know, 170 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:46,679 Speaker 1: his record, we forget about his record in San Francisco, 171 00:08:47,200 --> 00:08:50,720 Speaker 1: We forget about his extremely progressive pass which I think 172 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:52,559 Speaker 1: is out of step with the vast majority of the 173 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:56,040 Speaker 1: American people. So that's what a campaign is for a campaign. 174 00:08:56,679 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 1: Is there to remind people of someone's record and who 175 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:03,520 Speaker 1: they are, and by the way people can say we 176 00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:06,400 Speaker 1: know that we're comfortable with it. I don't know that 177 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:08,920 Speaker 1: that's where they'll come out on someone like Gavin Newson. 178 00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:11,920 Speaker 1: But let's see, let's see. I mean, like you, Jack, 179 00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 1: I think being being in or near California and seeing 180 00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:18,720 Speaker 1: him in action up close for the last eight years, 181 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:20,800 Speaker 1: I think we have a point of view that might 182 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:22,720 Speaker 1: be very different from a point of view if if 183 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:25,000 Speaker 1: it hasn't been in your face for the last eight years. 184 00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:28,360 Speaker 2: Just curious, since you're a smart guy and you know 185 00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:30,480 Speaker 2: policy got a thing you spent a moment of your 186 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:34,000 Speaker 2: life thinking about the Epstein Files. No, no, I don't. 187 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:39,280 Speaker 1: And I find it interesting how much carry the story 188 00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:42,280 Speaker 1: has in the sense that I mean, it just keeps 189 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:45,800 Speaker 1: coming back. It's like, you know, it's like a bad 190 00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:50,080 Speaker 1: infection coming back, like I can't think of it. I mean, 191 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:54,079 Speaker 1: that is the sort of analogy I think of because 192 00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:57,959 Speaker 1: I just every time I hear about the Epstein Files 193 00:09:58,040 --> 00:10:00,720 Speaker 1: or Epstein, I just cringe because I know there's nothing 194 00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:05,880 Speaker 1: redeeming about this at all, this discussion about about Epstein. 195 00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:08,760 Speaker 1: There is nothing redeeming about it. It doesn't make us 196 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:11,160 Speaker 1: better as a country to have a conversation about the 197 00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:13,679 Speaker 1: Epstein files. But you know whatever, people are interested in 198 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:15,280 Speaker 1: what they're interested and I don't want it to mean that, 199 00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:18,280 Speaker 1: but for me personally, I have no interest in it. 200 00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:20,800 Speaker 2: I mean, either, what is what is on your radar? 201 00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:22,920 Speaker 1: Well, I mean we've talked a little bit about the 202 00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:24,719 Speaker 1: redistricting thing. I think that's a big deal, And then 203 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:28,040 Speaker 1: I am thinking a lot about as we go into 204 00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:31,000 Speaker 1: this fall and in the next year. You mentioned the 205 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:33,480 Speaker 1: whole thing with the Federal Reserve and with weightcuts and 206 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:37,120 Speaker 1: what might happen there. I do think the economy, we've 207 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:40,400 Speaker 1: got to kind of see what's happening, because the message 208 00:10:40,440 --> 00:10:42,280 Speaker 1: that I keep getting when I talk to you know, 209 00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:44,679 Speaker 1: every day at Californians, that that you know, when I'm 210 00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:46,920 Speaker 1: around and out. Yeah, I think there are a lot 211 00:10:46,960 --> 00:10:49,480 Speaker 1: of people who are who are still having a tough 212 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 1: time given the economy, and they're looking at prices, you know, 213 00:10:53,880 --> 00:10:56,480 Speaker 1: still being probably a little higher than they like, and 214 00:10:56,520 --> 00:10:59,560 Speaker 1: you kind of wonder how the economy is going to perform. 215 00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:01,760 Speaker 1: I'm optimistic about it. I think as we go into 216 00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:03,720 Speaker 1: next year, things are going to pick up. But that 217 00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:05,920 Speaker 1: is one thing that I that I'm concerned about, what 218 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:08,719 Speaker 1: the collective impact of all of the different policies we've 219 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:11,640 Speaker 1: seen in all of the division at Washington, what that 220 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:13,880 Speaker 1: will mean going into next year. I think that's going 221 00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 1: to be an issue worth watching as well. 222 00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:19,080 Speaker 2: He is the Director of Domestic Policy Studies at Stanford 223 00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:21,760 Speaker 2: University and all around good and smart. Guyln hee Chen, 224 00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:23,000 Speaker 2: thanks for your time today. 225 00:11:22,760 --> 00:11:24,400 Speaker 1: Hey, Jack, always great to be with you. Thanks. 226 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:27,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, it'll be interesting to see if Gavin can pull 227 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:32,720 Speaker 2: off running away from what he has been in California 228 00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:34,720 Speaker 2: for all these years. But anyway, we'll have plenty of 229 00:11:34,760 --> 00:11:36,480 Speaker 2: We'll have plenty of time to talk about that. 230 00:11:38,040 --> 00:11:39,200 Speaker 1: Armstrong and Getty