1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,480 Speaker 1: Shares a PepsiCo at a session high, and this comes 2 00:00:03,520 --> 00:00:07,360 Speaker 1: after the company reported a strong quarter boosted its sales 3 00:00:07,360 --> 00:00:10,000 Speaker 1: and profit estimates. Matt, consumer's still willing to pay up 4 00:00:10,039 --> 00:00:14,200 Speaker 1: for brands from Fredo's to Gatorade, even with inflation impacting 5 00:00:14,200 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 1: demand these days. 6 00:00:16,040 --> 00:00:20,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, it is interesting that they've been able to keep up. 7 00:00:20,079 --> 00:00:23,239 Speaker 2: I guess great for their shareholders. And if we start 8 00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:27,639 Speaker 2: to see commodities prices fall, the question is can Pepsi 9 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,800 Speaker 2: continue holding onto this pricing power. Let's talk about this 10 00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:34,920 Speaker 2: right now with the chief financial officer, Hugh Johnson. He 11 00:00:35,040 --> 00:00:38,559 Speaker 2: joins us right now. Hugh, great to have you on 12 00:00:38,600 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 2: the program. After the earnings report. It looks like you're 13 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:45,120 Speaker 2: doing a fantastic job of keeping your margins up even 14 00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:49,600 Speaker 2: as prices for the underlying commodities rise. If they start 15 00:00:49,640 --> 00:00:52,239 Speaker 2: to turn around, and we did see PPI drop to 16 00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 2: almost nothing today, do you think you're going to be 17 00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:57,080 Speaker 2: able to continue to hold your pricing power. 18 00:00:58,040 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 3: Hey, good afternoon. Great to be with you guys. Yeah, 19 00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:03,560 Speaker 3: I'll tell you how we think about it a little bit. 20 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:05,759 Speaker 3: And if you think about where we've been year to date, 21 00:01:06,200 --> 00:01:10,240 Speaker 3: our prices have increased basically exactly the same as our 22 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:14,959 Speaker 3: commodity costs have increased as well, essentially right in line 23 00:01:14,959 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 3: with each other. And the gross margin and operating margin 24 00:01:18,319 --> 00:01:20,640 Speaker 3: improvements that you see are a product of the productivity 25 00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:25,280 Speaker 3: initiatives that we've launched. So to your question right now, 26 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:29,680 Speaker 3: our expectation is that we will continue to see commodity inflation, 27 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:32,560 Speaker 3: just at a lower level relative to what it's been 28 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:35,679 Speaker 3: in the recent past. So we've been in double digits 29 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:38,640 Speaker 3: for a while. Our expectation is that number will come down, 30 00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:42,720 Speaker 3: but still inflationary, and we'll price with that inflation as 31 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:45,600 Speaker 3: that inflation becomes more apparent to us. One thing to 32 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:48,440 Speaker 3: note on that as well, as we tend to forward 33 00:01:48,520 --> 00:01:51,720 Speaker 3: buy on commodities by about nine months, so whatever is 34 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:55,080 Speaker 3: happening in the marketplace right now takes about nine months 35 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:58,080 Speaker 3: to work its way into our financials. By virtue of 36 00:01:58,080 --> 00:01:59,600 Speaker 3: that hedging strategy that we have. 37 00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:05,000 Speaker 1: Helpful context on the price decisions, hue for consumers who 38 00:02:05,040 --> 00:02:08,440 Speaker 1: are feeling stretched, even if they lean into the brands 39 00:02:08,440 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 1: that you've got, is there a breaking point at. 40 00:02:10,639 --> 00:02:14,560 Speaker 3: A certain point? Yeah, you know, it's interesting right now 41 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:17,600 Speaker 3: if you look at what's happening with the consumer, there 42 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:20,480 Speaker 3: are both headwinds and tail winds with the consumer. The 43 00:02:20,480 --> 00:02:23,040 Speaker 3: headwinds are the ones that you all were just talking about, 44 00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:28,119 Speaker 3: you know, inflation, higher interest rates obviously are challenging household budgets. 45 00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:31,040 Speaker 3: At the same time, the job market is very strong 46 00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 3: right now. Wages are escalating and people tend to underestimate 47 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 3: or underplay that side of things as well. And the 48 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:40,560 Speaker 3: gig economy is offering lots of new opportunities for people 49 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:43,640 Speaker 3: to earn money. So when you net all of that out, 50 00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:45,960 Speaker 3: I think what you see right now is a consumer 51 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:50,359 Speaker 3: that's doing okay. They're just cautious, and where they're cautious 52 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:55,519 Speaker 3: in particular is big ticket purchases like personal technology like automobiles. 53 00:02:55,960 --> 00:02:59,200 Speaker 3: But they still they're employed, wages are going up, they 54 00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:01,640 Speaker 3: have money in their pockets, and we're kind of the 55 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:05,239 Speaker 3: affordable treat or the affordable luxury that you tend to 56 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:08,320 Speaker 3: spend money on. Anyway, you fill up the car with gas, 57 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:10,519 Speaker 3: if you go in, you might buy a pepsi or 58 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:12,920 Speaker 3: a mountain dew or and a bag of Lais or 59 00:03:12,919 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 3: a bag of sun chips. So there's a reason that 60 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:18,760 Speaker 3: companies like ours are defensive stocks, and it's actually playing 61 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:21,720 Speaker 3: out fairly well for us. The other thing that's actually 62 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:24,520 Speaker 3: playing too sorry, the other thing playing to our benefit 63 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:27,639 Speaker 3: is as consumers are going getting out more, whether it's 64 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:31,640 Speaker 3: vacations or restaurants or back to the office, we tend 65 00:03:31,639 --> 00:03:33,920 Speaker 3: to be present in those places more than most of 66 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:36,520 Speaker 3: our competitors, and that's a real tail wind for us. 67 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:41,280 Speaker 1: Helpful context there, Okay, Hugh. Those are the momentum parts 68 00:03:41,320 --> 00:03:44,480 Speaker 1: of this story. The industry has been preparing for a 69 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:48,080 Speaker 1: possible announcement from the World Health Organization, specifically tied to 70 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:51,200 Speaker 1: Asper tam We could hear that tomorrow. Can you give 71 00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 1: us a sense has PepsiCo been planning or preparing for 72 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:55,760 Speaker 1: that as well? 73 00:03:55,600 --> 00:03:58,440 Speaker 3: We have been, But in all candor, esper team is 74 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:02,040 Speaker 3: probably one of the most studied ingredients in all of 75 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:05,480 Speaker 3: food and has been for a long time. I like 76 00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 3: to talk about it and say aspertame is one of 77 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:10,120 Speaker 3: the few things. It's been around PepsiCo longer than I have, 78 00:04:10,160 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 3: because I've been here for almost thirty six years at 79 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 3: this point. And the reality of it is in over 80 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:20,080 Speaker 3: one hundred studies, it's been deemed as safe over ninety 81 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:24,000 Speaker 3: regulatory bodies across countries around the world, including the FDA 82 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:27,400 Speaker 3: and the European Food Safety authorities have all concluded that 83 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:30,640 Speaker 3: it's saved, and even the WHO itself has said that 84 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:34,960 Speaker 3: aspartame is safe. Is an ingredient. So, you know, I 85 00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:38,039 Speaker 3: do believe that, in fact, this is not going to 86 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:41,920 Speaker 3: be a significant issue with consumers based on just the 87 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:44,880 Speaker 3: preponderance of evidence. Why bond just aspartame is safe? 88 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:46,920 Speaker 2: You why even bother with it? I mean, you've kicked 89 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 2: it out of most of your products, right, I think 90 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:56,039 Speaker 2: starry contains aspartame, but it's not in diet pepsi or 91 00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:59,359 Speaker 2: any of the main products. Why include it at all 92 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:03,840 Speaker 2: if everybody suspects that it's unhealthy. 93 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:08,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a relatively small ingredient in some other sweetener 94 00:05:08,760 --> 00:05:12,560 Speaker 3: packages as well, but again relatively small. The amount of 95 00:05:13,560 --> 00:05:17,680 Speaker 3: consumption on this is it a tiny amount. So, as 96 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:20,080 Speaker 3: I said, I don't think consumers are really going to 97 00:05:20,120 --> 00:05:23,800 Speaker 3: lock onto this one as a significant concern, just based 98 00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 3: on the amount of time it's been out there and 99 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:28,080 Speaker 3: the fact that it has been declared safe by so 100 00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:29,239 Speaker 3: many different bodies. 101 00:05:30,279 --> 00:05:32,640 Speaker 2: All Right, Hugh, great to have you on the program, 102 00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:35,800 Speaker 2: especially on the day when you're raising your estimates and 103 00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:37,800 Speaker 2: your forward guidance. Thanks so much for coming to us 104 00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:41,039 Speaker 2: from PepsiCo. Hugh Johnson is the chief Financial Officer