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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast vented by Bet three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. We

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Speaker 1: are rolling right now, folks. I am Chad Milman, chief

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Speaker 1: Content Officer of the Action Network. Today is our week

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Speaker 1: six Thursday NFL episode. This is the episode where we

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Speaker 1: get feedback from the wise guys who listen to the

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Speaker 1: show with our sharp calls, where we make our survivor pick,

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Speaker 1: build our money line, underdog round Robin. We will give

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Speaker 1: at our Foxholes Bet, our big Balls bet of the week,

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Speaker 1: and we're going to arrow down our picks for the

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Speaker 1: free to join Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro

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Speaker 1: Football Pick Them contest. As our old pal Colin Cowhert

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Speaker 1: likes to say, there's a sea of money out there.

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Speaker 2: Because there's a sea of money out there.

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Speaker 1: You want to follow along with our official bets. You

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Speaker 1: can show them out on the contest website Favorites dot

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Speaker 1: Actionnetwork dot com when we lock them in before kickoff

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Speaker 1: on Sunday. If you prefer using the award winning Action app,

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Speaker 1: you can also track all the bets. Simon and I

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Speaker 1: lock in by following two accounts, the Phaves five and

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Speaker 1: the Favorites Podcast. Now I mentioned him, Let's bring in

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Speaker 1: my co host, my companion, MI compadre, my BFF, professional

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Speaker 1: better Simon Hunter. Hello, so I'm in, Hello John, Dude.

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Speaker 1: Lines are moving, opinions are changing. What's a wise guy

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Speaker 1: to do with a week like this?

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Speaker 3: Is the fun weeks? It's just like last week. There's

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Speaker 3: just a lot of opinions, a lot of guys projecting

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Speaker 3: teams out and hopefully, like last week, those guys are

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Speaker 3: going to be wrong and we'll be right Chad.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder of the Favorites podcast is presented by

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Speaker 1: bet three sixty five. Bet three six five doesn't do

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Speaker 1: you ordinary. It believes that every sport should be epic

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Speaker 1: every touchdown, every game, every point, every play, from the

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Speaker 1: moments that are legendary to the ones that fly under

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Speaker 1: the radar. See for yourself when you sign up today

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Speaker 1: with Code Action and you'll get three hundred and sixty

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Speaker 1: five dollars in bonus bets when you bet just one dollar. Whatever,

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Speaker 1: this sport, whatever the moment, is never ordinary. At Bet

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Speaker 1: three sixty five. Must be twenty one and older and

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Speaker 1: present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia. Eighteen

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Speaker 1: and older in Kentucky. If you were someone you now

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Speaker 1: has a gambling problem that wants help, call one eight

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Speaker 1: hundred gambler in Colorado, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia,

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Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms and

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Speaker 1: conditions apply. Week six is approaching. We're seeing opportunities all

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Speaker 1: over the board. Let's not dilly dally. It's time. Four sharcalls.

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Speaker 3: Hello, who's there? I'm talking rain rain telephone range. Somebody

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Speaker 3: say it.

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Speaker 1: Maybe want to do.

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Speaker 3: In It looks like Chad was right about a game.

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Speaker 3: Chad Millman got something right and a game a game.

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Speaker 3: I was just like, this guy's being another Homer taking

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Speaker 3: his bears. But I wouldn't Chad take his bears. But

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Speaker 3: apparently that's a good bet. I guess I got to

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Speaker 3: put it in the contest. I know Chad's gonna love it.

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Speaker 3: I know a couple of their pros. I love it,

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Speaker 3: but I just it's hard for me to get there. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: I'm still trying to get there. I just think the

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Speaker 3: vikings just are the play. But the bears in this situation,

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Speaker 3: apparently there might be bad weather, some wind in this game.

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Speaker 3: Like that that caters to a team that has one

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Speaker 3: of the best running quarterbacks you've ever seen in football.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I got a lot of calls about this game,

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Speaker 3: and I'm just I was just shocked. Where it's like,

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Speaker 3: you know, it felt like a good Bilow spot of

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Speaker 3: this Vikings team. But not only do the numbers back

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Speaker 3: up that this is a good spot to back the Bears,

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Speaker 3: but we've kind of seen that in these kind of

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Speaker 3: games where it's really badly windy. You know, you to

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Speaker 3: the dog usually, and especially if that dog has a

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Speaker 3: good running game. And I don't even think you guys

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Speaker 3: have a great running game the Bears. But the threat

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Speaker 3: of fields if you're if you're telling telling me that

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Speaker 3: he's going to run more than passing this game. I mean,

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Speaker 3: it's crazy to say, but that is a bonus for him.

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Speaker 3: Where it's like if they can make an offense where

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Speaker 3: it's just one read to DJ or pull it down

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Speaker 3: a run. I love that Bears offense because even watching

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Speaker 3: that DJ film from last week, he's just he's so good.

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Speaker 3: There's no excuse for fields not to get him the ball.

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Speaker 3: So Chad, Chad nailed it. He was on on it

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Speaker 3: with the pros he was all over the Bears. I

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Speaker 3: didn't see it. I bet the Vikings bought out of

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Speaker 3: my position. I have a decent amount now in the Bears,

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Speaker 3: hoping it gets back to three. That'd be great for

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Speaker 3: me and Check because he maybe it'd be three and

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Speaker 3: a half in the contest, but have no issue putting

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Speaker 3: the two and a half in the contest as well.

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Speaker 1: So it's funny you say this, you know. I listened

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Speaker 1: to Stucky and Raybaon on the Sunday six pack. You

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Speaker 1: can catch it live on YouTube on Wednesdays or listening

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Speaker 1: to the Action Network pot on on Thursday, and Raybon

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Speaker 1: is all over the Vikings. And this morning when I

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Speaker 1: was I was doing my pregame research for a pod.

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Speaker 1: I listened to Raybon talk about the Vikings and look,

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Speaker 1: you have me convinced. I bought out in my Seattle position.

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Speaker 1: I was on Seattle plus three, bought out of it

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Speaker 1: because of the way you've broken down Burrow. And I

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Speaker 1: listened to Stucky talk about how much he loved the

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Speaker 1: Bengals too. I'm like, I might be on the wrong

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Speaker 1: side of this. I don't love the feeling I'm getting,

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Speaker 1: but I listened to Raymon talk about the Vikings, and

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Speaker 1: then there wasn't one moment in that in that breakdown

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Speaker 1: that he had where I thought to myself, I got

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Speaker 1: this wrong. I have felt the whole time like I

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Speaker 1: almost bought out of it. And then I'm like, I

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Speaker 1: don't think I'm going to buy out of it. Maybe

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Speaker 1: if the line keeps moving, goes down to two one

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Speaker 1: and a half, maybe I'll buy out of it. But no,

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Speaker 1: I to hear this what else?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm shocked. I really, I really think I'm with Chris.

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Speaker 3: I thought that was gonna a great spot for Minnesota,

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Speaker 3: a nice bounce back game against a team that you know,

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Speaker 3: win in my twenty points. If it's a veteran team,

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Speaker 3: not a big deal. When it's a young team like

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Speaker 3: the Bears, it's like, all right, it's a nice spot

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Speaker 3: to fade these guys. But I'm trying to factor in

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Speaker 3: what the weather is going to be like and just

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Speaker 3: what I'm hearing from all the pros. The next game,

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Speaker 3: a game we talked about, hopefully people listened where it

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Speaker 3: was three Tampa and we told people to wait, hope

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Speaker 3: you can get the three and a half. No shock

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Speaker 3: to anyone, the three and a half is popped out,

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Speaker 3: so that's gonna be the biggest proverset shows game of

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Speaker 3: the week most likely. The pros are all over it.

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Speaker 3: One more game, well, I guess there's two more the Jets,

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Speaker 3: which is another game we're going to talk about the pros.

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Speaker 3: All of the Jets, the number has moved against them,

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Speaker 3: so obviously some smart money's coming on the Eagles here

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Speaker 3: and it's moved up to seven now from six and

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Speaker 3: a half. So definitely another interesting game this week of

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Speaker 3: a lot of opinions, a lot of people on one side,

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Speaker 3: a lot of people. I mean, it's there are really

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Speaker 3: split games, like I love the same this week, I

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Speaker 3: know some really sharp groups. I love Houston, I really

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Speaker 3: liked Me and Chatt talked earlier in the week. I

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Speaker 3: really like the Commanders, a lot of pros like Atlanta.

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Speaker 3: So it's just like last week where you're kind of

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Speaker 3: hitting these points in the season where there's just gonna

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Speaker 3: be guys split, Like people that project out of different teams,

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Speaker 3: they're gonna have a higher grade on them than other people.

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Speaker 3: So I know in the early weeks it was kind

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Speaker 3: of like simple, like everyone was on the same side.

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Speaker 3: You're not gonna really have that like for the Bears game. Yes,

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Speaker 3: all the pros are on the Bears. It seems like

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Speaker 3: Joe Public is coming on Minnesota again. We've been touched

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Speaker 3: on that. We're probably gonna talk about that forty nine

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Speaker 3: Ers game. I know some really smart, big money guys

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Speaker 3: who came in heavy on the forty nine ers when

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Speaker 3: I was at six and me and Chat talked about

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Speaker 3: it like if you could have got the five and

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Speaker 3: a half, I was like, you should grab it because

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Speaker 3: it's just gonna keep going up. Now it's at seven

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Speaker 3: and I don't If it's Watson, this is gonna be

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Speaker 3: one of the easiest bets in my life. But it's

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Speaker 3: not looking like it's gonna be Watson. And if he

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Speaker 3: does play, we're betting on a guy who has a

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Speaker 3: practice in two weeks. So yeah, definitely a scary spot

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Speaker 3: there with Cleveland where the public every now and then

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Speaker 3: gets a free one, and it's starting to look like

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Speaker 3: that forty nine Ers team. If they do play PJ

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Speaker 3: Walker the backup against the forty nine ers defense man,

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Speaker 3: that looks like a pretty good bet if you had

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Speaker 3: taken the forty nine ers. So yeah, for sharp calls

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Speaker 3: this week, not shocking. Guys love the Bears, guys love

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Speaker 3: the Jets, the guys love We didn't even talk about

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Speaker 3: the Chargers, which the bet I gave out earlier in

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Speaker 3: the week. And we didn't even talk about the Patriots,

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Speaker 3: which is another team that Chad was all over. I

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Speaker 3: think I got the three and a half yesterday, a

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Speaker 3: couple of books. It's back down to three, but another game.

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Speaker 3: I absolutely hate and hate to take it, but me

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Speaker 3: and Chad are probably going to end up on this

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Speaker 3: Patriots team. After talking to a lot of guys.

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Speaker 1: Well, you know what's interesting, it's fun to hear you

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Speaker 1: get the feedback from the wise guys. Because I was

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Speaker 1: doing when I was going through our notes from Tuesday

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Speaker 1: and prepping for the show today, I take it very seriously.

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Speaker 1: I do a lot of work in advance of the

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Speaker 1: Sunday show, Tuesday show and Thursday show cut an arrow down.

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Speaker 1: Our games. Got to get to our foxhol we got

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Speaker 1: to get to our Survivor, we got to get to

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Speaker 1: the money line, underdog parlay, we got to get to

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Speaker 1: the big balls first up. He didn't mention it any

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Speaker 1: sharp calls, but we liked it on Sunday night, even

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Speaker 1: when we realized it. We didn't realize it was in London. Tennessee.

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Speaker 1: We liked it at four and a half. It's been

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Speaker 1: stuck at four all week. I don't have a strong

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Speaker 1: opinion that the game is in London because I like

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Speaker 1: the matchup. Like, Mike Rabel is a dog. Whether he's

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Speaker 1: on the road or at home or somewhere else, it

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Speaker 1: is still going to be a dog, and so he's

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Speaker 1: an all timer. It's a Mike Rabel podcast. You bet

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Speaker 1: Mike Rabel when he's a dog, and you bet against

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Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson and John Harbaugh win their favorites. My biggest

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Speaker 1: concern right now, Simon, this is a massive public dog.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and I hate it. I didn't get this number

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Speaker 3: when we saw it Sunday night, and it still doesn't

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Speaker 3: make sense. But I know some guys who've taken positions

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Speaker 3: on the Ravens and they're just thinking themselves. You know,

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Speaker 3: if Lamartin have all those drops last week, they blow

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Speaker 3: out Pittsburgh, And if they blow out Pittsburgh, this line

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Speaker 3: is probably a little higher. Like the public probably would

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Speaker 3: have bet this up, and they like it that everyone's

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Speaker 3: on Tennessee and they're kind of on an Island here

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Speaker 3: on this Ravens team, But I don't trust that. I just

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Speaker 3: wouldn't put a lot of money on a game that's

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Speaker 3: in London. There's just so many variables here. And yeah,

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Speaker 3: I'll take the points. Like Chad said it, this feels

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Speaker 3: like the chalkiest dog I'll take all year. But I'm

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Speaker 3: catching a lot of points with Rabel. And you know,

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Speaker 3: if Lamar comes out a little slow and they don't

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Speaker 3: drive the field and they're not leading a half or

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Speaker 3: whatever it is, if the passing game just isn't working,

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Speaker 3: which is the biggest weakness of Tennessee, Like you can

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Speaker 3: throw the ball against Tennessee, and that's what this new

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Speaker 3: offense wants to do with Lamar and the Ravens. If

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Speaker 3: he's connected on the passes, chat were cooked. Like if

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Speaker 3: this guy is putting the ball downfield, we're done. This

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Speaker 3: BET's dead. If not, if Rabel does what he wants

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Speaker 3: to do, which is make this game sloppy and pull

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Speaker 3: the Ravens down and make them drive the field long drives,

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Speaker 3: I could easily see them covering this number. So thankfully

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Speaker 3: we have to puss in the contest. But yeah, I'll

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Speaker 3: be on the public dog of the week. I'll take

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Speaker 3: the Titans here at plus four and a half.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we're going to be on the Titans. I agree

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Speaker 1: with you. I do not want to put this in

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Speaker 1: the contest at all, Like this is a fun bet

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Speaker 1: to make. I'm going to enjoy watching it on Sunday morning.

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Speaker 1: I do not want to have contest contest, you know,

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Speaker 1: ambitions on this game in any way. But the next

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Speaker 1: game Indianapolis at Jacksonville. So this number opened at five

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Speaker 1: and a half, opened at five and a half. We

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Speaker 1: didn't know who the quarterback was going to be. Even

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Speaker 1: so we still bet Indianapolis because we're confident in Gardner Minshew,

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Speaker 1: and we're confident in sort of the Colts as a

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Speaker 1: team versus the Jags as a team right now. So

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Speaker 1: here's a note from Brandon Anderson. Eleven times in NFL

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Speaker 1: history a team is returned home from Europe without a

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Speaker 1: bye week. Every one of those teams was tied or

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Speaker 1: trailing at some point in the fourth quarter of the

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Speaker 1: following week. So Jacksonville already was a team that we

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Speaker 1: didn't love. Now we're getting a team we.

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Speaker 3: Do like, Why don't you credit credit to Evan? Evan

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Speaker 3: gave us that stat last week.

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Speaker 1: I think he got I think he got it from

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Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson. I'm doing the recap pod and because Evan

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Speaker 1: put it in the script as from Brandon Anderson.

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Speaker 3: That's a nice guy there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, he is a nice guy. He doesn't know much

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Speaker 1: about zoom or where you need to be audio and video,

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Speaker 1: but he's a nice guy when it comes to crediting people.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, we talked about that, that that kind of

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Speaker 3: trend on Tuesday. It's like you're playing, you're fading the

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Speaker 3: team as a favorite. Now coming home after two weeks

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Speaker 3: in London, and I know you've experienced I'm sure you have, Chad,

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Speaker 3: when you go to England you come back, it feels

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Speaker 3: like it takes like weeks to get back on the

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Speaker 3: time like that. That's a real thing. So yeah, like

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Speaker 3: it's just that it's just a lot to do. Like

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Speaker 3: you're in England for two weeks. Now you're coming back,

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Speaker 3: you're feeling good, you're the Jaguars you just went to

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Speaker 3: and oh in England now you're coming back or dealing

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Speaker 3: with all your family stuff. Everyone's like you're getting back

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Speaker 3: into your rhythm of life back here, and then you

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Speaker 3: get dropped right into a divisional game against a team

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Speaker 3: that they're hungry, Like the Colts are just a hungry

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Speaker 3: team right now. So another game where I hate it

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Speaker 3: because it's like the squarest bed, like everyone is going

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Speaker 3: to come in on the Colts. I don't know why

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Speaker 3: they wouldn't. Maybe the Minshew thing does scare them off.

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Speaker 3: And you know, Trevor Lawrence, but really well in England.

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Speaker 3: But how do you not take this big number against

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Speaker 3: a team coming back from London, like skipping their bye week.

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Speaker 3: It's just we have the numbers that back it up.

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Speaker 3: These games usually are close in the fourth quarter when

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Speaker 3: teams come back, it's just they're going to be sloppy.

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Speaker 3: There's things are gonna be a little off timing. So

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Speaker 3: maybe I'll get there chat and get this in our

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Speaker 3: contest as we sit here right now. I don't know

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Speaker 3: if it's one of my favorite five all.

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Speaker 1: Right, I don't know either. I think there's a couple

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Speaker 1: of really ugly games that could be though.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Like there's some ugly games. I just love this

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Speaker 3: week and it.

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Speaker 1: Makes me it's kind of like what we talked about

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Speaker 1: the other day. Remember we talked about the psychology of betters,

289
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Speaker 1: where we are less comfortable betting on a team we

290
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Speaker 1: know is great as a huge favorite this week, i e.

291
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Speaker 1: The Bills and the Dolphins against respectively, the Giants at

292
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Speaker 1: fourteen for the Bills and thirteen and a half against

293
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Speaker 1: the Panthers for the Dolphins. Then we are betting the

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Speaker 1: bad teams, right And so here's a perfect example. New

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Speaker 1: England has lost its last two games by a combined

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Speaker 1: total of like sixty six points. The worst two Bill

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Speaker 1: Belichick losses ever have been the past two weeks. I've

298
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Speaker 1: never been more convinced than right now is the tame

299
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Speaker 1: to take the time to take the New England Patriots.

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Speaker 3: Well, you shouldn't. You shouldn't be this confident. I'm telling

301
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Speaker 3: you that much. Mac Jones and his last eleven starts

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Speaker 3: as a dog own eleven ats chat.

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Speaker 1: Oh my god, it's terrible, huck. He likes to say,

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Speaker 1: it's catching a falling knife. Are we getting the Are

305
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Speaker 1: we getting the Patriots at the absolute bottom of the market.

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Speaker 1: And my take on this is a massive coaching advantage

307
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Speaker 1: right Like, there's not even a question. The Raiders are

308
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Speaker 1: prone to turning the ball over, which plays to the

309
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Speaker 1: strength of the Patriots. The Patriots. They have actually played

310
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Speaker 1: really hard teams and really good defenses. But then there's

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Speaker 1: the trends right from Evan Abrams credit Evan Abrams. Thank

312
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Speaker 1: you teams who scored three points or less the previous

313
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Speaker 1: week sixty percent against the spread the past twenty years

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Speaker 1: the following week. So that's the Patriots. Teams to lose

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Speaker 1: by twenty points or more of the previous week facing

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Speaker 1: a team that didn't sixty percent against the spread the

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Speaker 1: past twenty weeks. Like, there's a lot of evidence here

318
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Speaker 1: to back the Patriots. When when a team has been

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Speaker 1: its ugliest, I wish the number was higher. I'm hoping

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Speaker 1: it'll be three and a half in the contest, we

321
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Speaker 1: betted at three and a half.

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Speaker 3: But come on, Yeah, it's just a fear that they're broken. Man.

323
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Speaker 3: Like the crazest thing about the Patriots, they easily could

324
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Speaker 3: have started this year three and oh with a window

325
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Speaker 3: over the Eagles and a win over Miami and then

326
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Speaker 3: the Jets, like it could have started the year three

327
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Speaker 3: and oh and the whole everything would have been so

328
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Speaker 3: different from them this year. But it doesn't work that way.

329
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Speaker 3: Mac Jones is not clutch. The kid turns up all

330
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Speaker 3: over at the worst times. He makes horrible reads. He's

331
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Speaker 3: starting to see ghosts, which is like gotta be the

332
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Speaker 3: scariest part if you're if you're a fan of him,

333
00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:32,240
Speaker 3: where it's like he's not even making reads anymore. Now,

334
00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:34,760
Speaker 3: he's just throwing. He's before the snap even happens. He

335
00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:37,400
Speaker 3: knows he's gonna wear the ball. So if the guy

336
00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:39,960
Speaker 3: has triple coverage, Mac Jones throws right into it. He

337
00:16:39,960 --> 00:16:43,880
Speaker 3: doesn't read the rest of the field. So I hate

338
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Speaker 3: this bet. It's like I said, it's just like the

339
00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:48,680
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh bet where I hated that Pittsburgh bet all week

340
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Speaker 3: last week and it worked. Chad's right, we just have

341
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Speaker 3: to play the number. The Raiders are not a well

342
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Speaker 3: coached team. I mean, they're one of my biggest bets

343
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Speaker 3: for their underwind total and nothing changed about that. Like

344
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Speaker 3: that that Packers game. Did did they win it? Or

345
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Speaker 3: did Jordan Love give them the game? Like that? That's

346
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Speaker 3: one of those games where it's like if they lost

347
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Speaker 3: to the Packers, which they probably should have, twenty to seventeen,

348
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Speaker 3: whatever that number would ended at. What's this number? Chat?

349
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Speaker 1: Is it?

350
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Speaker 3: Plus two is plus one for this Patriots team, So

351
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Speaker 3: you're exactly right where it's like we're getting great value,

352
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Speaker 3: especially three and a half, that's amazing value for this

353
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Speaker 3: Patriots team. But man, have they just totally quit like

354
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Speaker 3: that that loss last week? If we don't see life

355
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Speaker 3: this week, Chad, it's gonna be brutal because it's gonna

356
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Speaker 3: be like every week we'll be like, well, this is

357
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Speaker 3: another bi low spot. It's like, I don't know, I

358
00:17:36,560 --> 00:17:38,840
Speaker 3: have no idea what the lowest point will be for

359
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Speaker 3: the Patriots, but it seems like this is low. It's

360
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Speaker 3: gonna get right like this, this feels like it's rock bottom.

361
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Speaker 3: So Chad's right, like we're playing these numbers, but it's

362
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Speaker 3: another game that makes me sick to my stomach this

363
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Speaker 3: week of this team's got no fight, no dog in them,

364
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Speaker 3: and we're betting on them to hopefully show up here. Yeah,

365
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Speaker 3: Evan just posted they got after this, They got Buffalo

366
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Speaker 3: Miami like they don't. If they don't win and cover

367
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Speaker 3: this game, then I get it. Their fans what they're saying.

368
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Speaker 3: It's like tank for Williams, get the number one pick

369
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Speaker 3: for the quarterback. Totally get it.

370
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Speaker 1: You got to start thinking about if they don't win

371
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Speaker 1: this game and they have a horrible season. What happens

372
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Speaker 1: to Belichick? Are they starting over with a new coach,

373
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Speaker 1: new organization, new quarterback next year? And I agree like

374
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Speaker 1: they will be in a position to tank Detroit at Tampa.

375
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Speaker 1: So we talked about it on Sharp Calls. Tampa was

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Speaker 1: three and a half. We loved it at three and

377
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Speaker 1: a half. We still like it at three. This is

378
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Speaker 1: the biggest pros Joe's game of the week. You mentioned it.

379
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Speaker 1: Sixty seven percent of the let me get the exactly

380
00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:46,080
Speaker 1: of the tickets on the Lions, seventy on the Bucks.

381
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Speaker 1: So again, Stucky and Raybon, you know we love listening

382
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Speaker 1: to them. I know that you and Stucky and Raybon

383
00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:56,000
Speaker 1: and Kerner have your very special wise guy modeling sheet.

384
00:18:58,520 --> 00:19:01,639
Speaker 1: Raybon liked the Viking like the Lions here and felt

385
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Speaker 1: like we still hadn't gotten to the top of the market,

386
00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:07,520
Speaker 1: and felt that the Bucks wins were fraudulent. I have

387
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Speaker 1: a different take on this. I'm no Raybound, but I'm

388
00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:14,399
Speaker 1: curious to get your thought. I just feel like Baker

389
00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:17,480
Speaker 1: has better weapons and is being put in a better

390
00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:22,560
Speaker 1: position to succeed and has the benefit of knowledge and

391
00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:25,520
Speaker 1: not trying to be the number one overall pick who

392
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Speaker 1: wins every game. And so I want to sell high

393
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Speaker 1: on the Lions and I want to still buy a

394
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Speaker 1: little bit low on Baker.

395
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Speaker 3: Yeah, the Bucks could be frauds, Like he could definitely

396
00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:39,000
Speaker 3: be right. We see it every year where teams have

397
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Speaker 3: great starts of the season. I think last year Panthers

398
00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:43,960
Speaker 3: started the year three and oh and then the completely

399
00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:45,800
Speaker 3: fall off a cliff And that happens every year, Like

400
00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:49,440
Speaker 3: teams start hot, eventually teams catch up to them and

401
00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:51,600
Speaker 3: they can't really do what they want to do. And no,

402
00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:54,600
Speaker 3: I don't. Yeah, like I get where he's coming from,

403
00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:56,600
Speaker 3: but I don't see that yet with Baker. Like when

404
00:19:56,640 --> 00:19:59,840
Speaker 3: I look at this offense with Godwin and Mike Evans,

405
00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:03,280
Speaker 3: it's like having those two veteran stud receivers has been

406
00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:05,760
Speaker 3: so huge for Baker, like having that trust to know

407
00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:09,240
Speaker 3: just throw it up to those guys. Like if he's

408
00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:12,080
Speaker 3: ever stuck Old Baker, he's either pulled down, get sacked,

409
00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:14,440
Speaker 3: or he tried to make a play and either turn

410
00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:16,119
Speaker 3: it over or you know whatever would happen. And the

411
00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:18,720
Speaker 3: fields over the Bucks. This year, he's not really doing

412
00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:21,399
Speaker 3: those stupid things, like he talked about going to the

413
00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:22,840
Speaker 3: Rams was one of the best things that ever happened

414
00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:25,000
Speaker 3: to him in his career because he said he learned

415
00:20:25,040 --> 00:20:28,120
Speaker 3: so much from McVeigh, and McVeigh basically told him, this

416
00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:30,000
Speaker 3: is what you suck at, this is why you suck,

417
00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:32,360
Speaker 3: this is how you can be better. And Baker said

418
00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:34,120
Speaker 3: he took it and ran with it, like he's really

419
00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:36,439
Speaker 3: worked on all of his weaknesses and he's never been

420
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Speaker 3: coached like that before. So I like Baker in this

421
00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:44,399
Speaker 3: spot with this number against a Detroit team that they've

422
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Speaker 3: just you know, not that they're the most public darling

423
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,119
Speaker 3: of any team in the league, but if you're a

424
00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:53,000
Speaker 3: better I believe they're the best team. If you've been

425
00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:55,640
Speaker 3: betting them, if you've been betting on Detroit since last year,

426
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Speaker 3: they're the best team ats by far.

427
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Speaker 1: Like Jared Goff, Jared Goff is the most profitable well

428
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Speaker 1: quarterback against the spread the past five years.

429
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Speaker 3: Yeah.

430
00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:07,679
Speaker 1: So, but here's one thing. He's much much better in

431
00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:10,600
Speaker 1: the dome than he is outside, and this game is outside,

432
00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:11,600
Speaker 1: and I.

433
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:13,520
Speaker 3: Was gonna get to that. It's just you're betting on

434
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:16,000
Speaker 3: them going outdoors and their offense not being able to

435
00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:19,399
Speaker 3: be as fast as you know, well, say what you

436
00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:22,400
Speaker 3: want about Golf. That offense has been humming this year,

437
00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:25,359
Speaker 3: like every game they're in, even last week, like they

438
00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:27,280
Speaker 3: put up forty two and didn't feel like it was hard,

439
00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:30,120
Speaker 3: Like it felt like that's exactly what they should have done.

440
00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:34,879
Speaker 3: And you know, Montgomery, I have no idea how well

441
00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:37,800
Speaker 3: he's gonna do against his Bucks run defense, but like

442
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:40,400
Speaker 3: that's their guy, Like the Lions have found their running back.

443
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:45,200
Speaker 3: He's the guy they're feeding in this matchup. I just

444
00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:47,119
Speaker 3: see it being a one possession game, Like it just

445
00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:49,679
Speaker 3: feels like it's gonna be a close battle. And for

446
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:52,080
Speaker 3: a getting three and a half when this number probably

447
00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:55,040
Speaker 3: should be two and a half. Three, we'll take that

448
00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:56,879
Speaker 3: number every time. Jah. That's why I like, even when

449
00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:58,560
Speaker 3: we saw the Sunday night, I feel like we both

450
00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:02,080
Speaker 3: knew this was probably gonna be our content. So it

451
00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:04,840
Speaker 3: sucks we're going against Golf the like you guys just said,

452
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 3: he's the best covering quarterback in football right now. But

453
00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:09,520
Speaker 3: that's why you kind of got to do it. It's

454
00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:12,000
Speaker 3: like such a big win last week. Now they're on

455
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:14,640
Speaker 3: the road playing against a team that's just scrappy, and

456
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:17,200
Speaker 3: even that Eagles game, we talked about if Mike Evans

457
00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:19,359
Speaker 3: made a couple of catches, they would have been in

458
00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 3: that game. Like, they're just a team that feels like

459
00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:22,920
Speaker 3: they're always gonna be in games. If things don't go

460
00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:26,440
Speaker 3: horribly wrong, we will be in this game. So I

461
00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 3: don't have a model of predicts turnovers. I tell you

462
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:30,600
Speaker 3: guys all the time, like I can't predict when these

463
00:22:30,640 --> 00:22:34,399
Speaker 3: quarterbacks are gonna have these meltdowns. But it's it's a

464
00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:36,480
Speaker 3: good number, and Matt Mitch's supposed to Mike Evans might

465
00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:38,080
Speaker 3: be out for this one. I didn't even hear anything

466
00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:40,680
Speaker 3: about that, So a big deal.

467
00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:45,280
Speaker 1: He didn't practice yesterday, so I'm not practicing off of

468
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 1: a bye week, is something. Yeah, I'm still I'm still like,

469
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 1: to me, the number makes it the right side, Like

470
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 1: what is he going to be worth against spread? Is

471
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:58,600
Speaker 1: it half a point? Maybe? So that's so tough.

472
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:00,400
Speaker 3: It's like he's probably worth the same. I know people

473
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:02,920
Speaker 3: can't believe it's we've probably worth the same as Justin Jefferson,

474
00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 3: which sounds crazy, but the line reflects that, Like, look

475
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:08,760
Speaker 3: how much that vikings lign move after Justin Jefferson got

476
00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:11,560
Speaker 3: ruled out? Not that much? The same thing here where

477
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:14,680
Speaker 3: it's like, maybe this gets us up to Fort Chad,

478
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:16,440
Speaker 3: maybe this gets up This is why this is three

479
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:20,840
Speaker 3: and a half. So yeah, I'll take the value in Tampa. Mean,

480
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:22,360
Speaker 3: these are just one of these games, Mean, Chad, don't

481
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:24,439
Speaker 3: have a choice. People like you want to bet like us.

482
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:27,440
Speaker 3: This is what we do. We try to fade these

483
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:29,480
Speaker 3: teams that are coming off huge wins that the market

484
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:32,919
Speaker 3: is just overreacting too. So the lines already said it.

485
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:35,480
Speaker 3: The lines are for real, like they're a really good team.

486
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 3: This is such a huge lutdown spot for this team

487
00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:39,159
Speaker 3: going on the road.

488
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:41,560
Speaker 1: From the YouTube chat, here's a nice stat. I love

489
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:45,280
Speaker 1: our YouTube watchers and listeners because they're reacting in real

490
00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:48,320
Speaker 1: time with stuff that we like. NFC North has the

491
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 1: worst overall record in the NFL, but NFC North kickers

492
00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:55,360
Speaker 1: are a perfect seventy eight of seventy eight so far.

493
00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:59,560
Speaker 1: All right, So we like New England, we like Tampa Bay.

494
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:02,720
Speaker 1: I haven't done a foxhole, we haven't done a big

495
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:07,560
Speaker 1: balls Reminder, the executive decision on Tuesday was Tampa Bay

496
00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:11,240
Speaker 1: plus three and a half. The Simon says was the

497
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:14,480
Speaker 1: Chargers plus two and a half. So those two are

498
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:17,120
Speaker 1: still out there. We're going to discuss La a little

499
00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:19,320
Speaker 1: bit more Seattle, since I don't know if you want

500
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:21,879
Speaker 1: to spend a lot of time on this. I'm like,

501
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:24,560
Speaker 1: it's a pros Joe's game according to our numbers, like

502
00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 1: the majority of the money coming in on Seattle, the

503
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 1: tickets on Cincinnati at two and a half. I don't know,

504
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:35,359
Speaker 1: I I see, I don't have a clear vision of

505
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:38,520
Speaker 1: this game other than you love Joe Burrow. Is this

506
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 1: a game we want to put in our contest? I

507
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:40,359
Speaker 1: don't know.

508
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:42,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, I love Joan and I love him at that

509
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 3: number we talked on our film, Sesshon. I just think

510
00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:48,520
Speaker 3: Joe looks like his old self this week. He's been

511
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:53,160
Speaker 3: practicing all week, no stepbacks, he hasn't reaggravated that injury.

512
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:56,200
Speaker 3: Te Higgins might be back this week. I saw him

513
00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:58,880
Speaker 3: practicing yesterday with Chase, like they're kind of catching balls

514
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 3: together down the field. So I love this number on

515
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:06,560
Speaker 3: the Bengals, Like you're telling me that Joe Burrow, whose

516
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 3: team was one and three head into last week, now

517
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 3: they're two and three. If they win this game, they'll

518
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:14,359
Speaker 3: be three and three head into their bye. Like that,

519
00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 3: that to me is just such a football motivator in

520
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:19,120
Speaker 3: the locker room of like give it everything you got.

521
00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:21,320
Speaker 3: If we get the three and three and we got

522
00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:23,840
Speaker 3: our bye week, it's like a whole new season. If

523
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:25,920
Speaker 3: you're two and four head into your bye week, Chad,

524
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:27,920
Speaker 3: it feels like your season might be a little lost.

525
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:30,680
Speaker 3: So I want to take Joe Burrow in this desperate

526
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:32,600
Speaker 3: Bengals team like this feels like a good spot to

527
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:35,280
Speaker 3: back them when this feels like everything to them, Like

528
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 3: this is this really is a statement game for them

529
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:40,840
Speaker 3: that they need this one bad And yeah, of course

530
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:42,680
Speaker 3: Sattle needs it too, and they're coming off a buye

531
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:45,119
Speaker 3: and the vibe should be really great for them, But

532
00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 3: just a bad spot for them head into this Bengals

533
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:51,960
Speaker 3: team that you know they can get pressure on Gino,

534
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 3: and we've seen when Gino gets pressure, that's kind of

535
00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:58,800
Speaker 3: when he melts. And looking at this matchup, it's going

536
00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:00,680
Speaker 3: to be a shootout. Chat That's why I understand why

537
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:02,520
Speaker 3: someone want to be on Sandle and take the points.

538
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:05,080
Speaker 3: But if you're getting two and a half on Joe

539
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 3: Burrow at home in this kind of game, I did

540
00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:11,240
Speaker 3: not take it like it just feels like again it's

541
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 3: it is public, Like I'm sure the public will be

542
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:15,280
Speaker 3: on the Bengals here, but it feels like a right

543
00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 3: play where it's like you're getting value here just because

544
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:21,240
Speaker 3: they've struggled this season. Like if he was fully healthy

545
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:24,200
Speaker 3: all year and the Bengals had a winning record, number's

546
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:26,560
Speaker 3: probably four, probably three and a half. So the fact

547
00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 3: that it's two and a half feels a little bit

548
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:30,800
Speaker 3: like the Cardinals last week, where it's like, eventually the

549
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,119
Speaker 3: number came down so much, that's where the value was.

550
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 3: And that feels the same way this week, like the

551
00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:37,399
Speaker 3: numbers come down too much. Now the value to me

552
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 3: is on the Bengals. It feels four, Yeah, Chat, I

553
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 3: get there with you on Seattle. But the fact that

554
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:43,919
Speaker 3: this is two and a half in a lot of books,

555
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:46,240
Speaker 3: I love that number for the Bengals.

556
00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:52,320
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell is frantically waving his arms reminding us there

557
00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:55,639
Speaker 1: could be a lot of weather in Cincinnati. Weather it

558
00:26:55,720 --> 00:27:00,359
Speaker 1: is gonna potentially wreak some havoc. Yes, ideal can be

559
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:04,000
Speaker 1: could be bad for Kansas City and Denver. Tonight could

560
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,960
Speaker 1: be windy and rainy, and Cincinnati windy and rainey. In Chicago,

561
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:09,920
Speaker 1: it's gonna be an interesting totals Week two. All right,

562
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 1: you've convinced me on Cincinnati. It's why I bought out

563
00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:13,960
Speaker 1: of the bet.

564
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 3: I mean, if that's true, if you guys like the

565
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,399
Speaker 3: under it's forty five right now, so if that, if

566
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:21,280
Speaker 3: that's true, they got Yeah, if they got bad weather coming,

567
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:24,719
Speaker 3: I would grab because it'll keep dropping. I'm assuming by

568
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:25,920
Speaker 3: game time it will.

569
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:31,080
Speaker 1: All right, we talked about the Jets. We talked about Philadelphia.

570
00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:33,960
Speaker 1: Big money is coming on Philly. You said it in

571
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:36,720
Speaker 1: the Wise Guy in the Sharp calls. Uh, it's moved

572
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:40,679
Speaker 1: the number to seven. But I'm with you, like seven

573
00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:43,119
Speaker 1: feels too big for the Jets with this defense to

574
00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:45,679
Speaker 1: be home underdogs. It feels awful to me.

575
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:50,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, And it's another bet that we both hate. We

576
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:52,880
Speaker 3: both won't be shocked and we lose it, but it's

577
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:55,159
Speaker 3: a bet we will always, always will make like we're

578
00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 3: getting a huge number.

579
00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:58,880
Speaker 1: Well, we haven't discussed Foxholer big balls, and we've talked

580
00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:02,159
Speaker 1: about Tampa Bay and New England, so like, what are

581
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 1: we waiting for?

582
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:05,080
Speaker 3: I did it then far away.

583
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 1: This feels like a foxhole to me.

584
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:09,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, now this feels like a foxhole, you know me,

585
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:10,959
Speaker 3: Regardless of what's going on.

586
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:12,120
Speaker 1: I'm a foxhole guy.

587
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:14,200
Speaker 3: I commit to a team, I commit to a city.

588
00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:15,360
Speaker 3: I'm a foxhole guy.

589
00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 1: Jets plus seven is our foxhole. We're in the foxhold, baby.

590
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:20,159
Speaker 3: I hate it. It's making me sick. I'm trying to

591
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:21,960
Speaker 3: find a way to get on this Eagles team. I

592
00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:24,280
Speaker 3: just couldn't get there. Like I understood why the guys

593
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:26,640
Speaker 3: took the six and six and a half on the Eagles, Like, yes,

594
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 3: you got the value, beat the number, and now it's

595
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 3: up to seven. I don't know, Chad. It feels like

596
00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:33,920
Speaker 3: an inflated line, like this number has moved too much.

597
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:37,280
Speaker 3: Out of what people receive is Zack Wilson's not that good,

598
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:39,400
Speaker 3: which I agree with. I don't think he played great

599
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:41,600
Speaker 3: last week. But the little things I'm taking away from

600
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:43,400
Speaker 3: seeing him is he's making throws on third down. He

601
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:45,600
Speaker 3: just wasn't making three weeks ago, and now he is making.

602
00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:47,720
Speaker 3: It seems like he is confidence every week that's growing.

603
00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:51,240
Speaker 3: So once again, it's scary as hell been on these

604
00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:55,080
Speaker 3: terrible quarterbacks, but we got up play the numbers. And

605
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:57,240
Speaker 3: I know it's crazy to say, but like this is

606
00:28:57,280 --> 00:28:59,120
Speaker 3: gonna be in our money line around Robin like this

607
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:02,960
Speaker 3: is just an upset, an upset game. So the Eagles,

608
00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:06,280
Speaker 3: they look like they look like a team that we

609
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:08,200
Speaker 3: all assume will be playing the forty nine Ers in

610
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:11,040
Speaker 3: the conference championship game. They have a lot of losses

611
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:12,880
Speaker 3: coming along the way. That's just how football is. We

612
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:15,640
Speaker 3: joke all the time. There's only one team in my

613
00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:18,440
Speaker 3: lifetime that was perfect, like that was truly perfect. That

614
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:21,800
Speaker 3: was that Patriots team with Rainy Moss. So we just

615
00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 3: teams lose. That's just how it is, people, and that's

616
00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:26,960
Speaker 3: my job trying to find the losses. So this one

617
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:28,680
Speaker 3: here with the Eagles just feels like it's going to

618
00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:31,120
Speaker 3: be a loss. Like on the road, we know Hurts

619
00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:32,640
Speaker 3: is a different quarterback on the road, evenough this year

620
00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 3: he's been great on the road, right, I think he's

621
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:37,320
Speaker 3: covered every game so far on the road. Yeah, it

622
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:39,400
Speaker 3: seems like a nice spot to fade this Eagles team

623
00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:42,800
Speaker 3: that the hype is trying to hit peak right now,

624
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 3: like that that I told you this is one of

625
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:47,160
Speaker 3: those games I talk to people that everyone you know

626
00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:50,520
Speaker 3: right now as the forty nine Ers and their teasers

627
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 3: moneyline parlays with the Eagles and our moneylne parlays and

628
00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:56,040
Speaker 3: in their teasers like this is a huge week for

629
00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 3: the public. They got all these these six point favorites.

630
00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 3: They think that are way better than these He's underdogs,

631
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:03,200
Speaker 3: So me and you will take that extra point of

632
00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:05,200
Speaker 3: value chat and grab the Jets here plus seven.

633
00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:10,120
Speaker 1: I don't hate it as much as I hated betting

634
00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:14,320
Speaker 1: like the Jets as big dogs against the Chiefs. To

635
00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:17,320
Speaker 1: be honest, I like, I love this. I love this

636
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:19,920
Speaker 1: Eagles team We've talked about. They have a feel like

637
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:27,760
Speaker 1: of confidence and competence like the Patriots did, great talent

638
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:31,480
Speaker 1: being put in great positions, so they will win games

639
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:34,200
Speaker 1: just based on that that they have no business winning.

640
00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 1: But they're still figuring things out and like they're figuring

641
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 1: it out of the fly, and this is one of

642
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:40,240
Speaker 1: the better defenses they faced.

643
00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:44,640
Speaker 3: So the Eagles are twenty eighth in red zone efficiency

644
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 3: this year. They were number three at this point last

645
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:49,920
Speaker 3: year in red zone efficiency. So we talked all the

646
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:53,960
Speaker 3: time that the losing their OC there's been no bigger

647
00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:56,239
Speaker 3: hit to their team on offense than in the red

648
00:30:56,280 --> 00:30:58,680
Speaker 3: zone from last year to this year. So I'm right

649
00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 3: there with you, Chad, like they're any incredibly good team.

650
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:03,840
Speaker 3: They have tons of talent. There's little things that we're

651
00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 3: we're seeing here that gives us a little bit of

652
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:07,160
Speaker 3: hope taking the Jets here in this number. It's just

653
00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:09,680
Speaker 3: the Eagles aren't as good as people are perceiving as

654
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:10,480
Speaker 3: they were last year.

655
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:14,680
Speaker 1: Foxhel Jets plus seven. Well, you mentioned that the Wise

656
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:16,840
Speaker 1: guys were coming in on Atlanta, but you liked Washington

657
00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:20,200
Speaker 1: the other day. Is yeah, like do we want to

658
00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:21,560
Speaker 1: say a lot about this right now?

659
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:24,280
Speaker 3: No, but just don't be shocked if it's one of

660
00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:26,640
Speaker 3: our five. Like me and Chad, I always have these

661
00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 3: things where I wake up and like I've loved the

662
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 3: team all week and I'm just like, come on, let

663
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:31,080
Speaker 3: me put them in. And this this feels like that

664
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:33,600
Speaker 3: where it's like I bet it, I love them. I've

665
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 3: teased the Washington number up to seven, and it's it's

666
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:42,080
Speaker 3: you know, I'm just I'm just taking two teams here

667
00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:44,520
Speaker 3: that there's no there's really no real difference between them,

668
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 3: Like they're basically the same teams this year, and like

669
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:49,840
Speaker 3: I graded them out as such home field advantages and

670
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:51,320
Speaker 3: what it used to be this line should be closer

671
00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:53,360
Speaker 3: to one one and a half. You're getting a free

672
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:56,600
Speaker 3: point here, So I'm gonna take that value on Washington.

673
00:31:57,920 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 1: Uh, the other game that I thought could have been

674
00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 1: our Foxhall And to me, it's similar to Washington and

675
00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 1: Atlanta is New Orleans and Houston. New Orleans is a

676
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 1: short road favorite at Houston. You and I both like

677
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:10,960
Speaker 1: New Orleans when we talked about it on Tuesday. This

678
00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:15,520
Speaker 1: is another pros Joe's game. Public loves the Texans. Pros

679
00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 1: love the Saints right now. I see it's at one

680
00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:21,680
Speaker 1: and a half. I actually saw some ones. It's possible

681
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 1: the better number. Could this be a late breaking contest entry.

682
00:32:28,080 --> 00:32:30,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's another again, another game. I just absolutely love

683
00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:33,840
Speaker 3: this week the Saints. I believe they had the NFL

684
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 3: record eight straight road games without giving up twenty or

685
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:40,240
Speaker 3: more points. Going for number nine here against an offense

686
00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 3: that Chad said it like Ritter played incredibly well last week,

687
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:47,520
Speaker 3: had seven points at halftime, Like this is just an

688
00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 3: offense that they just struggle a lot of things. And

689
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 3: I put that on the quarterback here. So this this

690
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 3: bet here is really about regression. Like I talked last week,

691
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:02,000
Speaker 3: CJ is going to throw picks, He's going to turn

692
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:05,280
Speaker 3: the ball, he's going to do stupid stuff. He had

693
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:07,200
Speaker 3: two of the worst drops I've seen all year for

694
00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:10,400
Speaker 3: Atlanta defense, like literally through one to one defender right

695
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 3: in the bread basket, like they had his hands up,

696
00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:14,160
Speaker 3: hit him in the face. The next one, it was

697
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:15,800
Speaker 3: when he put one downfield and the guy should have

698
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:18,480
Speaker 3: picked and he didn't, So he is putting the ball

699
00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:20,920
Speaker 3: up to be turned over. Now Here. We have a

700
00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 3: Saints team that they don't make those drops. I mean,

701
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:25,800
Speaker 3: you saw last week the Honey Badger had that pick

702
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 3: six on Mac. I think he's up to thirty picks

703
00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 3: now Tyron Matthews, Like these are guys that do catch

704
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 3: the ball when it's throwing their way. And this Saints

705
00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 3: team we talked about this is our identity, Like their

706
00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:40,080
Speaker 3: identity is this defense. The defense especially I want to

707
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:42,560
Speaker 3: believe in Derek Carr and the offense. It really is

708
00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:44,680
Speaker 3: on the defense. Like if they get stops, they've turned

709
00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:48,080
Speaker 3: over CJ. This game was snowball, Like it's a rookie

710
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:50,880
Speaker 3: quarterback and a rookie head coach. These are the kind

711
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:53,040
Speaker 3: of games they should lose and have letdown games. So

712
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:55,040
Speaker 3: it's weird that I've seen the number move down, like

713
00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 3: Chad just said, I've seen I thought this would go

714
00:33:56,920 --> 00:33:59,520
Speaker 3: up to two and a half three, it's gone the

715
00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 3: other way. So that means money is coming out in Houston here,

716
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 3: but doesn't change my view of it. It's the same

717
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:06,240
Speaker 3: thing last week with the Saints in the Patriots, Like

718
00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:08,759
Speaker 3: people are like, aren't you worried that the Saints number

719
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:11,520
Speaker 3: is moving against you guys so much? No, it's this

720
00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:14,160
Speaker 3: is how it is, like pros on lease coin flip games,

721
00:34:14,160 --> 00:34:16,560
Speaker 3: pros will be on both sides, like it all depends

722
00:34:16,600 --> 00:34:18,360
Speaker 3: on what your model makes this number. So to me,

723
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:20,400
Speaker 3: if I make this minus two and a half for

724
00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:23,000
Speaker 3: the Saints, I love the value on the Saints. I'm

725
00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:24,800
Speaker 3: getting now a point and a half of value on

726
00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:28,120
Speaker 3: the Saints. So it's another game that this is tough

727
00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 3: to take. Chad like watching CJ's tape. This kid's incredible,

728
00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:34,680
Speaker 3: especially that last drive last week. But this Saints defense

729
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:36,799
Speaker 3: is so good they should be putting this kid into

730
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:39,279
Speaker 3: fits like they're different coveragers, they're different schemes are gonna

731
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:41,719
Speaker 3: throw them. I love this matchup so much for the

732
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:42,520
Speaker 3: Saints defense.

733
00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 1: It sounds like as you're talking about it, ay, I

734
00:34:46,120 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 1: want to make it my biggest bet of the week,

735
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 1: B Jesus B. I definitely want to put it into

736
00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:52,960
Speaker 1: the contest.

737
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 3: All right, Yeah I can. I definitely don't want to

738
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:56,800
Speaker 3: make my biggest bet of the week, but I'm definitely

739
00:34:56,840 --> 00:34:57,840
Speaker 3: in on making an art contract.

740
00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:00,120
Speaker 1: I mean, you're taught, you You're expressing love for this

741
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:02,319
Speaker 1: more than any other game we talked about.

742
00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 3: Really well, I do love it. Maybe I'm waking up

743
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:06,839
Speaker 3: a little now it's five thirty. Maybe I'm finally woking up,

744
00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:10,399
Speaker 3: but yeah, I just I love this defense so much.

745
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:14,719
Speaker 1: On the same seam, we have not made a big

746
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:17,600
Speaker 1: balls better of the week yet, and I don't know. Okay,

747
00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:21,160
Speaker 1: all right, well let's talk about Dallas. Let's talk about

748
00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:23,120
Speaker 1: Dallas at the Chargers, which was the Simon says at

749
00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:25,439
Speaker 1: two and a half. I think that number has moved

750
00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 1: down to two, if I'm not mistaken.

751
00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:30,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's fluctuating two and a half. Two.

752
00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:34,600
Speaker 1: There's two and a half's out there still, so uh,

753
00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:37,880
Speaker 1: I don't know that I want to wait until Monday.

754
00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:41,799
Speaker 1: I feel like the games we've talked about, there are games.

755
00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:44,279
Speaker 1: I think there are five games on Sunday that we

756
00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:45,480
Speaker 1: like a little bit more than Monday.

757
00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, that's fair.

758
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:50,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just do you love this game?

759
00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:55,080
Speaker 3: I don't. I don't know about love, but I do

760
00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:58,839
Speaker 3: really like it. Like we're past talking stages. Yeah, we're

761
00:35:59,080 --> 00:36:01,560
Speaker 3: I might introduce her to my mom, but I don't

762
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:03,800
Speaker 3: know if I love her yet. But it's a good number.

763
00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:09,320
Speaker 3: It's like you're whatever you want to say about the

764
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:11,960
Speaker 3: Chargers team. I do think Kellen Moore is coming now

765
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:14,880
Speaker 3: and made that offense better, Like they're pushing the ball downfield.

766
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:17,840
Speaker 3: On the flip side, it looks like Dallas offense is

767
00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:21,880
Speaker 3: regressed under McCarthy, Like Dak great skill set, pushing the

768
00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:25,480
Speaker 3: ball downfield, connecting with guys downfield. It's totally gone. Like

769
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:28,040
Speaker 3: he's neuter that he wants him to be a quick reach,

770
00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:31,080
Speaker 3: short dump kind of guy. It doesn't look like that's

771
00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:34,520
Speaker 3: working in Dallas. And I saw some report that McCarthy's

772
00:36:34,520 --> 00:36:36,839
Speaker 3: sleeping in the office is all week and the guys

773
00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:40,120
Speaker 3: haven't left the offices and they're all locked in. What

774
00:36:40,160 --> 00:36:42,200
Speaker 3: do you think every coaching staff does every week? Like

775
00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:44,120
Speaker 3: I hate when they post those kind of stories. It's

776
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:47,200
Speaker 3: like even when guys win, Like I saw a clip

777
00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:51,000
Speaker 3: the other day of whatever whatever coach it was, maybe

778
00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:54,000
Speaker 3: it was Belichick talking about it where it's like they're

779
00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:56,200
Speaker 3: asking if he sleeps in the office, and he's just like,

780
00:36:56,760 --> 00:36:59,440
Speaker 3: you know, in his mumbling voice, like you bring work

781
00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:01,960
Speaker 3: on with you, Like these guys are all working NonStop.

782
00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:04,279
Speaker 3: So I get where people are like, aren't you scared

783
00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:06,320
Speaker 3: of the Cowboys in a bounce back spot? Their coaches

784
00:37:06,320 --> 00:37:09,440
Speaker 3: sleeping in the office, like all this stuff. I'm honestly not,

785
00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:12,319
Speaker 3: Like I just look at this Chargers offense and it's like,

786
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 3: even if we were down fourteen in this game chat,

787
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:17,719
Speaker 3: I still wouldn't have lost hope on the Chargers man

788
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 3: to come back. Like Herbert, he's that guy and we've

789
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:22,279
Speaker 3: seen it time and time again where if he got

790
00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:25,040
Speaker 3: the right coaching and then still confidence and push the

791
00:37:25,080 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 3: ball downfield, they're going to be a great offense. So

792
00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:31,480
Speaker 3: last week, the Cowboys went all in on stopping the run.

793
00:37:31,600 --> 00:37:33,160
Speaker 3: Like if you go back and watch the game plan,

794
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:36,520
Speaker 3: it worked, right, they really did for the most.

795
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:38,360
Speaker 1: Don Perty is now seven to one to win the MVP.

796
00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:40,880
Speaker 3: And that's my point where it's like if they're going

797
00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:42,120
Speaker 3: to do the same thing, or they're going to go

798
00:37:42,160 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 3: all in and try to take something away from Herbert

799
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:46,719
Speaker 3: and stifling this past offense. I don't think they have

800
00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:48,840
Speaker 3: the guys to do it like that. Dig's injury was

801
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:51,520
Speaker 3: a big deal that took away one of the best

802
00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 3: corners on the football when the best turnover corners on

803
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:56,880
Speaker 3: all of football. So say what you want about this

804
00:37:57,000 --> 00:37:58,920
Speaker 3: Chargers team. I get it where people are like it

805
00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:01,680
Speaker 3: feels like you're buying high this team. I think we're not.

806
00:38:01,840 --> 00:38:04,200
Speaker 3: Like I got this game at a pick again plus

807
00:38:04,239 --> 00:38:06,759
Speaker 3: two and a half on our Chargers team, So Chad's right,

808
00:38:06,760 --> 00:38:09,920
Speaker 3: like this might not be in our contest, but no

809
00:38:09,920 --> 00:38:11,880
Speaker 3: way in here. I'm gonna be on the Chargers all week.

810
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 1: You know what I hate as a member of the

811
00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:20,239
Speaker 1: sports media, and what I hated even more when I

812
00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 1: was overseeing a sports broad sports media empire, the lazy

813
00:38:28,719 --> 00:38:32,520
Speaker 1: narratives that the media picks up on coaches are sleeping

814
00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:35,879
Speaker 1: in their office, they're so dedicated. Dak Prescott is going

815
00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 1: into this Niners game as a revenge spot, like yeah, Ezekiel,

816
00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:44,440
Speaker 1: oh yeah, is like I saw this report before the Patriots.

817
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:47,399
Speaker 3: Count is gonna help Dallas read the forty nine Ers offense.

818
00:38:47,239 --> 00:38:53,560
Speaker 1: Come on, like it's so fucking stupid and lazy and fascile.

819
00:38:53,719 --> 00:38:57,239
Speaker 1: It's just it's just idiocy. It's not looking for a

820
00:38:57,280 --> 00:39:00,880
Speaker 1: better storyline. It's honestly astonishing. All right, all right, you

821
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:02,520
Speaker 1: conviss me. This might be in there now. We got

822
00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:04,400
Speaker 1: like ten games that might be in there, but we

823
00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:07,480
Speaker 1: have not gotten too the big balls bet of the

824
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:08,680
Speaker 1: week and I put in the I put in the

825
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:11,719
Speaker 1: rundown for our show. Uh. There were three games that

826
00:39:12,200 --> 00:39:16,280
Speaker 1: we wanted to talk that we haven't talked about. Carolina

827
00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:19,920
Speaker 1: plus thirteen and a half at Miami Giants, plus fourteen

828
00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:24,319
Speaker 1: at Buffalo, Cleveland plus seven against the Niners. I think

829
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:26,200
Speaker 1: that number is starting to get to a point where

830
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:31,360
Speaker 1: you gotta consider it. So is it any one of

831
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:34,799
Speaker 1: those three games that you're thinking about? Yes, Chad, is

832
00:39:34,840 --> 00:39:36,160
Speaker 1: it Cleveland plus seven?

833
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:39,840
Speaker 3: It is Cleveland plus seven? Big balls?

834
00:39:40,320 --> 00:39:43,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, Simon, I feel like you should take me home

835
00:39:43,320 --> 00:39:44,880
Speaker 1: to meet your mom because I feel like we are

836
00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:49,560
Speaker 1: in mind meld our big balls better than we care.

837
00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:53,840
Speaker 1: I'm so excited. I'm so excited because you know, I

838
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:55,880
Speaker 1: bet the Browns plus five and a half and I

839
00:39:56,600 --> 00:39:58,879
Speaker 1: didn't buy out of it, and because I just kept

840
00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:01,640
Speaker 1: feeling like I'm not convinced, like this is this is

841
00:40:01,680 --> 00:40:05,160
Speaker 1: a bad spot for the Niners. When you said about

842
00:40:05,160 --> 00:40:08,560
Speaker 1: it being a scheduled loss resonated with me. And this

843
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:11,880
Speaker 1: defense is just too good. This is going to be

844
00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:16,839
Speaker 1: a very hard game for San Francisco to win. Big fuck.

845
00:40:16,880 --> 00:40:18,680
Speaker 1: I love that and the Browns at plus.

846
00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:22,000
Speaker 3: Seven definition of a trap. And we talk all the

847
00:40:22,040 --> 00:40:25,560
Speaker 3: time like not that I'm the greatest at spotting these things,

848
00:40:25,600 --> 00:40:27,839
Speaker 3: but I'm getting pretty damn good at it. And when

849
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:29,360
Speaker 3: I get other pros that come in and tell me

850
00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:32,040
Speaker 3: it's exact same thing they saw, Yeah, it makes you

851
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:33,719
Speaker 3: feel great. And then you get the numbers that back

852
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:36,680
Speaker 3: it up, which it's all about. I know. I want

853
00:40:36,719 --> 00:40:39,240
Speaker 3: to be like, oh it really does matter what Watson?

854
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:41,359
Speaker 3: Of course it does. Would I rather there Watson out there?

855
00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:44,399
Speaker 3: Then PJ. Yes, PJ was in the XFL a couple

856
00:40:44,360 --> 00:40:46,080
Speaker 3: of years ago. Like this is just we're in a

857
00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:48,879
Speaker 3: different world here. Watson. Say what you want about him.

858
00:40:49,160 --> 00:40:51,239
Speaker 3: I feel like he's been better this year, Like every

859
00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:52,759
Speaker 3: game if like he was getting a little better. That's

860
00:40:52,760 --> 00:40:54,440
Speaker 3: what sucks so much about that injury, where it's like

861
00:40:54,760 --> 00:40:56,919
Speaker 3: you kind of saw the old glimmer of old Watson there.

862
00:40:58,040 --> 00:41:00,520
Speaker 3: But the biggest thing here is Schwartz. Schwartz dee against

863
00:41:00,520 --> 00:41:03,120
Speaker 3: Shanahan in his career as a head coach a DC.

864
00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:06,920
Speaker 3: He's eight and three straight up against Shanahan's offense. So

865
00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:09,640
Speaker 3: that means that Shannan was an offensive coordinator when he

866
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:12,880
Speaker 3: was a head coach. He's he's three to eight straight

867
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:16,439
Speaker 3: up against Schwartz. And it's that technique that Schwarts run

868
00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:19,800
Speaker 3: the wide nine. It's really good against the Shanahan running scheme.

869
00:41:19,880 --> 00:41:23,160
Speaker 3: So if you look about how this defense, Schwartz's defense

870
00:41:23,280 --> 00:41:27,480
Speaker 3: is done against McVeigh, how they've done against the forty

871
00:41:27,600 --> 00:41:32,200
Speaker 3: nine ers, how they've done against McDaniels down in Miami.

872
00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:34,839
Speaker 3: Like these guys are run the old Shanahan running scheme,

873
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:37,560
Speaker 3: which is thirty years old now, I mean going way

874
00:41:37,600 --> 00:41:40,400
Speaker 3: back to those early Bronco days, whereas it maybe he

875
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:43,239
Speaker 3: might be almost forty years now. This run scheme, it's

876
00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:46,439
Speaker 3: really dated. Like there's certain guys like Jim Schwartz where

877
00:41:46,440 --> 00:41:49,879
Speaker 3: they can they can have their defensive scheme beat this, right,

878
00:41:49,920 --> 00:41:52,680
Speaker 3: He's got the players to beat this defense. So another

879
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:55,759
Speaker 3: game that we talked, whether you can be all over

880
00:41:55,800 --> 00:41:57,320
Speaker 3: that under as well if you want, if you're scared

881
00:41:57,360 --> 00:42:00,000
Speaker 3: off by this number, but this is such a big

882
00:42:00,160 --> 00:42:02,480
Speaker 3: number and the public is all over it, Chad, like

883
00:42:03,160 --> 00:42:05,200
Speaker 3: I hate it because it's PJ. That's that's the only thing

884
00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:08,200
Speaker 3: I hate about this, Where it's like, if this was Watson,

885
00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:10,920
Speaker 3: this would have been one of my biggest bets of

886
00:42:10,920 --> 00:42:13,000
Speaker 3: the year, Like this was a scheduled loss, and the

887
00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:16,120
Speaker 3: public is so fucking stupid, Like when that number was

888
00:42:16,120 --> 00:42:17,799
Speaker 3: three on Sunday, I mean you joked about it, where

889
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:20,160
Speaker 3: it's like I'm taking this number just because you know

890
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:23,080
Speaker 3: the fourty hours might win this, this number might blow up.

891
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:26,520
Speaker 3: The number has moved so much now and I agree

892
00:42:26,520 --> 00:42:28,399
Speaker 3: that it moved because Watson and he might be out,

893
00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:30,960
Speaker 3: And that's a six point move or seven point move,

894
00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 3: like that's how much he's worth. The Cleveland and we

895
00:42:33,680 --> 00:42:35,600
Speaker 3: could walk into one of the worst bets of our

896
00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:39,239
Speaker 3: lives where we're taking a backup QB against probably the

897
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:41,439
Speaker 3: best defense of football right now, this forty Iris team.

898
00:42:41,480 --> 00:42:44,080
Speaker 3: But you have to trust Jim Sports in this defense,

899
00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:46,480
Speaker 3: Like this is such a good spot to fraid Brock

900
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:49,359
Speaker 3: Purdy on the road in bad weather in this forty

901
00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:51,560
Speaker 3: nine Ers team against a Browns team that no one

902
00:42:51,600 --> 00:42:54,319
Speaker 3: believes in, Like I'm going through the books right now,

903
00:42:54,360 --> 00:42:57,240
Speaker 3: and different books have it ninety five percent of the bets,

904
00:42:58,280 --> 00:43:00,680
Speaker 3: ninety six percent of the tickets on the forty nine

905
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:05,319
Speaker 3: ers team here. Yes, so hated. People hate this bet

906
00:43:05,400 --> 00:43:07,480
Speaker 3: because we don't know what's gonna happen with Watson. But

907
00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:09,480
Speaker 3: you got to take these points, Like if he gets clear,

908
00:43:09,520 --> 00:43:11,359
Speaker 3: this number drops back down to what chat I talked about.

909
00:43:11,360 --> 00:43:13,080
Speaker 3: This drops down back to five, four and a half

910
00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:16,279
Speaker 3: most likely. So maybe we'll get a bad number here

911
00:43:16,320 --> 00:43:18,520
Speaker 3: at seven. I don't think we will. At worst it

912
00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:20,960
Speaker 3: gets up seven and a half by game time. Eight maybe,

913
00:43:21,040 --> 00:43:23,200
Speaker 3: but we can just buy those get those points as

914
00:43:23,239 --> 00:43:26,040
Speaker 3: well once it goes up. So grabbing the seven right now,

915
00:43:26,080 --> 00:43:28,480
Speaker 3: just in case Watson does practice today this number starps

916
00:43:28,560 --> 00:43:31,520
Speaker 3: drop And it's just we kind of knew Monday night

917
00:43:31,560 --> 00:43:33,359
Speaker 3: this was going to be one of our bets. As

918
00:43:33,360 --> 00:43:34,799
Speaker 3: a week is going along, hare and I get more

919
00:43:34,880 --> 00:43:36,799
Speaker 3: numbers and I get more people call me about it.

920
00:43:37,640 --> 00:43:39,560
Speaker 3: We have to be all over this Cleveland number of people.

921
00:43:39,600 --> 00:43:41,600
Speaker 3: It's just this is such a big number in a

922
00:43:41,640 --> 00:43:44,120
Speaker 3: game that is such a letdown spot for this forty

923
00:43:44,200 --> 00:43:44,759
Speaker 3: nine Ers team.

924
00:43:45,360 --> 00:43:49,719
Speaker 1: I love our YouTube watchers and listeners, but sixty eight

925
00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:51,880
Speaker 1: percent of the people in the chat voted for the

926
00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:54,480
Speaker 1: Niners at minus seven. That just locked it in for

927
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:58,359
Speaker 1: us and the contest Browns plus seven silent. Well, here's

928
00:43:58,360 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 1: what's interesting. I feel well, I feel like big Balls

929
00:44:02,360 --> 00:44:06,319
Speaker 1: better the week Cleveland Browns plus seven. I'm what does

930
00:44:06,320 --> 00:44:07,880
Speaker 1: it say about us that I just fucking love that.

931
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:11,719
Speaker 1: If I had, if I had to say our top

932
00:44:11,760 --> 00:44:17,600
Speaker 1: five right now, I'd probably go Browns plus seven, Jets

933
00:44:17,640 --> 00:44:23,640
Speaker 1: plus seven, New Orleans minus one and a half, Chargers

934
00:44:23,800 --> 00:44:27,920
Speaker 1: plus two, and then I think it would be between

935
00:44:29,160 --> 00:44:30,280
Speaker 1: Tampa and Cincy.

936
00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:33,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's what I was gonna say. I put Tampa

937
00:44:33,360 --> 00:44:35,279
Speaker 3: in there, and the one waiting to put in would

938
00:44:35,320 --> 00:44:37,520
Speaker 3: be the Chargers because you're right, like, I hate waiting

939
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:39,680
Speaker 3: to that's the worst part of this contest, like for

940
00:44:39,760 --> 00:44:42,759
Speaker 3: four and oh, I can't stand waiting a whole nother

941
00:44:42,840 --> 00:44:44,520
Speaker 3: day to find out we're gonna be five and oh.

942
00:44:44,560 --> 00:44:47,640
Speaker 3: So I'm right there with you, Chad, like I'd put

943
00:44:47,640 --> 00:44:51,000
Speaker 3: the Chargers on the outside looking in right now, and

944
00:44:51,040 --> 00:44:54,439
Speaker 3: i'd put Bucks and Cinci over, especially since we're gonna

945
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:56,320
Speaker 3: like we'll do me and Chad like a lock in

946
00:44:56,360 --> 00:44:58,440
Speaker 3: our picks after the show. Here if we go into

947
00:44:58,440 --> 00:44:59,759
Speaker 3: the app right now and that since he's two and

948
00:44:59,760 --> 00:45:02,120
Speaker 3: a half, we're gonna have to lock that one in.

949
00:45:02,160 --> 00:45:04,360
Speaker 3: But if they're minus three and a half, maybe we

950
00:45:04,360 --> 00:45:05,280
Speaker 3: don't put them in.

951
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:08,240
Speaker 1: All right, Simon, Can you name the fastest growing ticketing

952
00:45:08,239 --> 00:45:09,360
Speaker 1: app in the United States?

953
00:45:09,760 --> 00:45:10,279
Speaker 3: Game Time?

954
00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:13,160
Speaker 1: You bet, brother, it's our sponsor, game Time. I love

955
00:45:13,200 --> 00:45:15,520
Speaker 1: game Time for two reasons. One, they sponsored their show.

956
00:45:16,080 --> 00:45:18,920
Speaker 1: Number two, I actually use game Time to buy tickets.

957
00:45:18,920 --> 00:45:22,440
Speaker 1: They've got amazing last minute deals on all sorts of tickets,

958
00:45:22,480 --> 00:45:25,600
Speaker 1: including pro and college football games. Speaking of which, I'm

959
00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:28,440
Speaker 1: actually going to open game Time right now from my

960
00:45:28,480 --> 00:45:31,920
Speaker 1: house here in Connecticut. And guess what, we love the

961
00:45:31,960 --> 00:45:34,799
Speaker 1: Jets this weekend, Simon, if you and I did not

962
00:45:34,920 --> 00:45:37,440
Speaker 1: have a show on Sunday, we would be going to

963
00:45:37,520 --> 00:45:41,800
Speaker 1: the Jets game for less than eighty bucks. Great tickets.

964
00:45:41,880 --> 00:45:44,000
Speaker 1: No matter where you live, download the game Time app,

965
00:45:44,040 --> 00:45:45,960
Speaker 1: get out, have some fun this week. Go sweait your

966
00:45:45,960 --> 00:45:49,319
Speaker 1: bets live and in person. You can redeem You can

967
00:45:49,360 --> 00:45:52,600
Speaker 1: redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off your first purchase.

968
00:45:52,680 --> 00:45:55,520
Speaker 1: Terms apply, I guess again. Just download the app and

969
00:45:55,640 --> 00:45:59,200
Speaker 1: enter code favorites for twenty dollars off last minute tickets

970
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:03,200
Speaker 1: lowes price guaranteed. Before we get to our money Line

971
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:09,080
Speaker 1: Underdog Round Robin parlay, reminder that the Week six contest.

972
00:46:09,280 --> 00:46:13,839
Speaker 1: The Week six contest tiebreaker is total rushing yards. On

973
00:46:13,920 --> 00:46:19,480
Speaker 1: Monday Night Football Dunk dun Du Action Network predictive analyst

974
00:46:19,520 --> 00:46:23,080
Speaker 1: Billy Ward writes a weekly article about tie breaking strategy,

975
00:46:23,560 --> 00:46:25,400
Speaker 1: and a link to that article can be found in

976
00:46:25,400 --> 00:46:28,239
Speaker 1: the episodes description. If you want a leg up in

977
00:46:28,280 --> 00:46:31,520
Speaker 1: the contest, good luck, all right? Our money Line Underdog

978
00:46:32,040 --> 00:46:39,800
Speaker 1: Round Robin. My dog blocks your dog, Your dog blocks

979
00:46:40,040 --> 00:46:49,040
Speaker 1: mot dog. Let me let me throw some ideas at you. Tampa, Sure, Washington, Okay, Bears,

980
00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:53,360
Speaker 1: Bears chargers.

981
00:46:53,440 --> 00:46:55,839
Speaker 3: They're a little too too small.

982
00:46:55,960 --> 00:47:03,000
Speaker 1: All right, Tampa, Washington, Bears, Colts.

983
00:47:01,400 --> 00:47:03,239
Speaker 3: Get them in there, and then we got we go.

984
00:47:03,360 --> 00:47:06,160
Speaker 3: Let's go one big dog here, either either the Browns

985
00:47:06,239 --> 00:47:08,240
Speaker 3: or the Jets. Which one do you like to win? Outright?

986
00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:11,920
Speaker 1: Chad j Ets, Jets?

987
00:47:12,200 --> 00:47:14,920
Speaker 3: All right, let's do it, Jets.

988
00:47:14,560 --> 00:47:21,160
Speaker 1: All right? Money Line Underdog Round Robin, Tampa, Washington, Chicago, Indy,

989
00:47:21,920 --> 00:47:27,359
Speaker 1: New York Jets. Simon, I want you, I want you

990
00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:30,040
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991
00:47:30,040 --> 00:47:32,800
Speaker 1: of the NFL part of your game day? Does eating

992
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993
00:47:38,160 --> 00:47:38,840
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994
00:47:39,440 --> 00:47:42,600
Speaker 1: Order online during our Pizza Pizza pregame one hour before

995
00:47:42,680 --> 00:47:45,160
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996
00:47:45,600 --> 00:47:48,760
Speaker 1: Choose your favorite Little Caesar's pizza or pick the toppings

997
00:47:48,800 --> 00:47:51,919
Speaker 1: you crave. Simon, what do you think about this new

998
00:47:51,960 --> 00:47:57,839
Speaker 1: motto I invented? If you order extra toppings, the fun

999
00:47:58,040 --> 00:47:59,080
Speaker 1: is never stopping.

1000
00:48:00,440 --> 00:48:01,279
Speaker 3: That's a fun rhyme.

1001
00:48:02,160 --> 00:48:06,320
Speaker 1: However, you order your pizza, you win. And speaking of winning,

1002
00:48:06,840 --> 00:48:11,640
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1003
00:48:11,680 --> 00:48:14,279
Speaker 1: pick up. So grab some friends and enjoy a few

1004
00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:20,719
Speaker 1: slices during the game. All Right, it's time for the

1005
00:48:20,800 --> 00:48:31,359
Speaker 1: Survivor Pool pick of the week. We're going week six.

1006
00:48:32,480 --> 00:48:34,359
Speaker 3: I've been saving them for this and we don't have

1007
00:48:34,440 --> 00:48:36,799
Speaker 3: to take them, but like I told people, this is

1008
00:48:36,800 --> 00:48:39,320
Speaker 3: going off my Survivor. So we have a couple of

1009
00:48:39,360 --> 00:48:42,120
Speaker 3: teams crossed out and it's starting to get to that

1010
00:48:42,160 --> 00:48:44,759
Speaker 3: point now where it's like, are we trying to be

1011
00:48:44,800 --> 00:48:47,880
Speaker 3: really smart? Should we take the rams so we're saving

1012
00:48:47,920 --> 00:48:49,840
Speaker 3: the bills? Or do you should you just take the Bills,

1013
00:48:50,040 --> 00:48:52,120
Speaker 3: like that's yeah, Okay.

1014
00:48:52,520 --> 00:48:54,799
Speaker 1: When I was going through it, I feel like we've

1015
00:48:54,840 --> 00:48:57,080
Speaker 1: taken the Dolphins, and when I was sort of doing

1016
00:48:58,280 --> 00:49:00,319
Speaker 1: I felt like we haven't taken the Bills, And this

1017
00:49:00,400 --> 00:49:00,880
Speaker 1: is the spot.

1018
00:49:01,680 --> 00:49:03,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, last week I did a contest where I did

1019
00:49:03,400 --> 00:49:06,960
Speaker 3: the Dolphins. I did another one where I did the Lions.

1020
00:49:06,960 --> 00:49:10,160
Speaker 3: Obviously that that was a no sweat for either of them.

1021
00:49:10,840 --> 00:49:13,719
Speaker 3: So yeah, I got the Bills left. So we want

1022
00:49:13,760 --> 00:49:15,480
Speaker 3: to do Bills one and then our second pick would

1023
00:49:15,520 --> 00:49:20,360
Speaker 3: be Rams too. Yeah, because if you're doing game theory,

1024
00:49:20,440 --> 00:49:22,560
Speaker 3: that's a nice that's a nice play there, the Rams,

1025
00:49:22,560 --> 00:49:24,160
Speaker 3: Like when else are you going to use the Rams?

1026
00:49:24,719 --> 00:49:27,799
Speaker 3: But I am with Chad where it's like peace of mind,

1027
00:49:27,880 --> 00:49:29,320
Speaker 3: no sweat bills.

1028
00:49:30,680 --> 00:49:33,719
Speaker 1: So you know, we got a couple of minutes here.

1029
00:49:33,719 --> 00:49:35,960
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell hasn't yelled at us yet to hurry, So

1030
00:49:36,080 --> 00:49:37,920
Speaker 1: I know. We got Evan coming up to talk about

1031
00:49:37,960 --> 00:49:42,480
Speaker 1: some some stats and trends, but we did not talk

1032
00:49:42,520 --> 00:49:45,440
Speaker 1: about the Dolphins and the and the Giants as like

1033
00:49:45,640 --> 00:49:50,160
Speaker 1: or the Panthers and the Giants. Are we betting those games?

1034
00:49:50,239 --> 00:49:53,200
Speaker 1: It feels like those are the Cardinals against the Cowboys games.

1035
00:49:53,640 --> 00:49:56,279
Speaker 1: A little bit different because they're on the road. But like,

1036
00:49:57,800 --> 00:50:00,120
Speaker 1: are we catching a fallen knife to paraphrase and and

1037
00:50:00,160 --> 00:50:01,480
Speaker 1: steal directly from Stuckey.

1038
00:50:04,200 --> 00:50:06,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just can't get there. If the Daniel Jones

1039
00:50:06,480 --> 00:50:08,000
Speaker 3: thing is a big deal to me. The guy has

1040
00:50:08,000 --> 00:50:11,120
Speaker 3: a bad neck injury. Yeah, you can say, well it's

1041
00:50:11,200 --> 00:50:13,000
Speaker 3: Tyrod Taylor is gonna come in. He's just as good

1042
00:50:13,040 --> 00:50:14,960
Speaker 3: as him. I don't know. I don't know how how

1043
00:50:15,000 --> 00:50:18,000
Speaker 3: true that statement is. So they have no offensive line

1044
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:20,360
Speaker 3: there in the Giants. Even if the Bill's defense is

1045
00:50:20,400 --> 00:50:22,680
Speaker 3: totally banged up, I don't think it's gonna matter on

1046
00:50:22,680 --> 00:50:25,040
Speaker 3: that one. And then the Panthers one. I told you

1047
00:50:25,120 --> 00:50:27,840
Speaker 3: if it's Andy Dalton, I am all in on the Panthers.

1048
00:50:28,120 --> 00:50:30,399
Speaker 3: They keep putting Bryce Shung out there and he can't

1049
00:50:30,400 --> 00:50:33,239
Speaker 3: read a defense. Even if Miami is when the worst

1050
00:50:33,239 --> 00:50:36,680
Speaker 3: defenses in football there, they're still a lot better than

1051
00:50:36,719 --> 00:50:39,520
Speaker 3: most teams. So looking at this game, I want to

1052
00:50:39,520 --> 00:50:41,960
Speaker 3: get there. Chat. I know some pros who's coming out Carolina.

1053
00:50:42,840 --> 00:50:45,640
Speaker 3: I still think you're getting a good number technically on Miami.

1054
00:50:45,719 --> 00:50:47,880
Speaker 3: So I hate it. Like again, another game won't be

1055
00:50:47,920 --> 00:50:50,880
Speaker 3: in our contest, but I'll be on a big favorite again.

1056
00:50:51,040 --> 00:50:53,160
Speaker 3: Like last week with Miami All Right.

1057
00:50:54,280 --> 00:50:57,399
Speaker 1: As a reminder of the favorites, podcast is presented by

1058
00:50:57,480 --> 00:51:01,719
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1059
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1061
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1065
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1066
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1067
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1068
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1069
00:51:37,719 --> 00:51:41,920
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler in Colorado, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio, and

1070
00:51:42,040 --> 00:51:46,720
Speaker 1: Virginia or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms

1071
00:51:46,719 --> 00:51:49,319
Speaker 1: and conditions and restrictions apply. Before we get out of here,

1072
00:51:49,719 --> 00:51:53,320
Speaker 1: we are joined by Action Network Director of Research, Evan Abrams.

1073
00:51:53,800 --> 00:51:56,719
Speaker 1: He is the engine behind the great stats and nuggets

1074
00:51:56,719 --> 00:51:59,759
Speaker 1: you hear on this show and across all of our network.

1075
00:52:00,320 --> 00:52:06,000
Speaker 1: Evan Abrams, you get the last word. We're finished talking.

1076
00:52:06,840 --> 00:52:07,760
Speaker 3: What's up fellas?

1077
00:52:08,040 --> 00:52:12,160
Speaker 2: Uh So today's topic is buyer Beware, which is something

1078
00:52:12,200 --> 00:52:13,560
Speaker 2: that I feel like we talk about a lot in

1079
00:52:13,600 --> 00:52:16,239
Speaker 2: the show. We're always betting bad and here we go. So,

1080
00:52:16,640 --> 00:52:19,319
Speaker 2: speaking of Panthers and Giants, they are two of three

1081
00:52:19,360 --> 00:52:22,879
Speaker 2: teams also the Broncos, who don't have an ATS win

1082
00:52:22,960 --> 00:52:25,279
Speaker 2: yet this season. So this is the first time since

1083
00:52:25,320 --> 00:52:28,000
Speaker 2: twenty thirteen we have three teams or more without an

1084
00:52:28,000 --> 00:52:30,560
Speaker 2: ATS win in the six game or later. So don't

1085
00:52:30,560 --> 00:52:32,920
Speaker 2: see this frequently where these teams aren't covering this late

1086
00:52:32,920 --> 00:52:36,359
Speaker 2: into this season, when winless ATS teams are listed as

1087
00:52:36,400 --> 00:52:40,160
Speaker 2: dogs two eighteen, one, seventy nine fifty six percent last

1088
00:52:40,160 --> 00:52:43,040
Speaker 2: twenty years, when those teams are failing to cover by

1089
00:52:43,120 --> 00:52:46,640
Speaker 2: ten plus points per game ninety seven, sixty five and

1090
00:52:46,680 --> 00:52:50,520
Speaker 2: three sixty percent. So, unfortunately, that would be me telling

1091
00:52:50,600 --> 00:52:53,240
Speaker 2: you to bet the Broncos and the Panthers this week.

1092
00:52:53,960 --> 00:52:57,040
Speaker 1: Well I did bet the Broncos. It's Thursday, so bet

1093
00:52:57,040 --> 00:52:58,200
Speaker 1: the Broncos and.

1094
00:52:58,160 --> 00:53:01,240
Speaker 3: Here we go. Let's flip and it's up to eleven now, Chad, Yeah,

1095
00:53:01,320 --> 00:53:01,680
Speaker 3: oh my.

1096
00:53:01,640 --> 00:53:04,440
Speaker 1: God, they spinal tapped it. They turned it up to eleven.

1097
00:53:06,040 --> 00:53:06,680
Speaker 3: Let's flip it.

1098
00:53:07,000 --> 00:53:10,200
Speaker 2: So six teams are covering by five points per game

1099
00:53:10,280 --> 00:53:14,520
Speaker 2: or more on average this season. Buffalo, Detroit, Houston, Miami,

1100
00:53:14,600 --> 00:53:17,279
Speaker 2: San Francisco, and Tampa in the six game or later.

1101
00:53:17,840 --> 00:53:20,040
Speaker 2: Those types of teams who are covering by that margin

1102
00:53:20,320 --> 00:53:23,800
Speaker 2: eighty games under five hundred against the spread forty six percent.

1103
00:53:24,120 --> 00:53:26,680
Speaker 2: We like that, Chad when those teams are a favorite

1104
00:53:26,880 --> 00:53:31,400
Speaker 2: forty four percent. So that's Detroit, San Francisco, Miami, and Buffalo.

1105
00:53:31,560 --> 00:53:36,799
Speaker 2: So again, Fyer beware. And finally, I like to kind

1106
00:53:36,800 --> 00:53:38,680
Speaker 2: of stray away from side to talk a little bit.

1107
00:53:38,719 --> 00:53:40,120
Speaker 2: I want to talk about the betting market for a

1108
00:53:40,120 --> 00:53:42,120
Speaker 2: second on my last one here. So in games of

1109
00:53:42,160 --> 00:53:45,080
Speaker 2: season where the total fell from the opening the closing line,

1110
00:53:45,120 --> 00:53:47,439
Speaker 2: so fifty five and a half to fifty five would

1111
00:53:47,440 --> 00:53:48,920
Speaker 2: be an example, and that is actually a lot of

1112
00:53:48,920 --> 00:53:51,640
Speaker 2: games this week. The under is thirty one and eighteen

1113
00:53:51,680 --> 00:53:55,040
Speaker 2: this season. So the market has done an incredible job

1114
00:53:55,200 --> 00:53:58,960
Speaker 2: at predicting unders, especially with line movement. So since twenty

1115
00:53:58,960 --> 00:54:02,479
Speaker 2: twenty one, unders are two to eight, one fifty seven

1116
00:54:02,520 --> 00:54:05,400
Speaker 2: and one fifty seven percent when the total has dropped

1117
00:54:05,520 --> 00:54:07,880
Speaker 2: between the opening and closing lines. Now that is covering

1118
00:54:08,080 --> 00:54:11,400
Speaker 2: the under on the last lowest line as well, So

1119
00:54:11,640 --> 00:54:13,840
Speaker 2: any number above that, that win percentage of fifty per

1120
00:54:13,880 --> 00:54:17,200
Speaker 2: seven percent just gets higher. So nine percent ROI on

1121
00:54:17,239 --> 00:54:20,120
Speaker 2: those games. And here's just the final statute encompass it.

1122
00:54:20,120 --> 00:54:23,240
Speaker 2: It's pretty crazy. So in the last twenty three regular

1123
00:54:23,280 --> 00:54:25,960
Speaker 2: season weeks dating back to last year, there have only

1124
00:54:26,040 --> 00:54:28,880
Speaker 2: been three where there are more overs than unders for

1125
00:54:28,920 --> 00:54:32,960
Speaker 2: full game totals. Overs are three, thirteen and seven in

1126
00:54:33,000 --> 00:54:35,839
Speaker 2: those twenty three weeks. So we've seen a whole lot

1127
00:54:35,880 --> 00:54:36,680
Speaker 2: of unders lately.

1128
00:54:37,680 --> 00:54:39,279
Speaker 1: By the way, we talk about the luck rankings all

1129
00:54:39,320 --> 00:54:40,920
Speaker 1: the time, and we didn't talk about them a lot

1130
00:54:40,920 --> 00:54:42,360
Speaker 1: today because there's not a lot of games that are

1131
00:54:42,400 --> 00:54:45,000
Speaker 1: sort of fitting in the luck ranking from a side's

1132
00:54:45,040 --> 00:54:49,480
Speaker 1: point of view. But the luck unders this week Denver,

1133
00:54:49,560 --> 00:54:52,080
Speaker 1: Kansas City Thursday night. A lot of people won't hear

1134
00:54:52,120 --> 00:54:54,840
Speaker 1: this in time for that, But Minnesota Chicago, which Simon

1135
00:54:54,920 --> 00:54:57,600
Speaker 1: you talked about early on in the sharp call, So

1136
00:54:58,160 --> 00:55:00,360
Speaker 1: time to jump on that under from Minnesota chicag At

1137
00:55:00,360 --> 00:55:04,920
Speaker 1: the very least, thank you Evan Abrams for all that excellent,

1138
00:55:05,080 --> 00:55:09,960
Speaker 1: excellent data and trends to recap our Foxhole New York

1139
00:55:10,040 --> 00:55:15,560
Speaker 1: Jets plus seven our big balls Cleveland plus seven our

1140
00:55:15,600 --> 00:55:19,000
Speaker 1: exec Decision, Tampa Bay plus three our Simon says, the

1141
00:55:19,120 --> 00:55:21,480
Speaker 1: La Chargers plus two and a half our Round Robin,

1142
00:55:22,000 --> 00:55:28,279
Speaker 1: money Line, Underdog Parlay, Tampa Bay, Washington, Chicago, Indie, New

1143
00:55:28,360 --> 00:55:31,719
Speaker 1: York Jets. If we had to pick five for the

1144
00:55:31,719 --> 00:55:34,120
Speaker 1: phaves five right now, which Simon and I are going

1145
00:55:34,160 --> 00:55:36,520
Speaker 1: to discuss as soon as the show is over, the

1146
00:55:36,719 --> 00:55:41,920
Speaker 1: faves five for now probably the New York Jets, New

1147
00:55:42,040 --> 00:55:48,560
Speaker 1: Orleans Saints, Cleveland, Browns, Tampa and Sincy, with the Chargers

1148
00:55:49,160 --> 00:55:52,719
Speaker 1: on the outside looking in, But we will try to

1149
00:55:52,760 --> 00:55:55,399
Speaker 1: nail that down a little bit after Before we sign off.

1150
00:55:55,400 --> 00:55:57,160
Speaker 1: Reminder that Simon and I will be back with our

1151
00:55:57,160 --> 00:56:00,600
Speaker 1: Week six recap episode Lava and the Action Work YouTube

1152
00:56:00,600 --> 00:56:05,480
Speaker 1: page this Sunday and every Sunday at seven thirty pm Eastern.

1153
00:56:05,880 --> 00:56:10,320
Speaker 1: Download us on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your pods, Rate, review, subscribe,

1154
00:56:10,360 --> 00:56:12,880
Speaker 1: We US five stars say whatever you want. Feedback is

1155
00:56:12,920 --> 00:56:16,359
Speaker 1: a gift until Sunday night, seven thirty pm Eastern. Love You.

1156
00:56:23,760 --> 00:56:28,279
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1157
00:56:28,280 --> 00:56:31,080
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, Help is

1158
00:56:31,120 --> 00:56:34,200
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