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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named vest betting podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Flave, what's up the general nation?

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network podcast. This is the American

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Speaker 3: League Baseball Betting Preview.

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Speaker 4: I'm stucky and with me today is Colin Wilson and

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Speaker 4: Sean Zarillo.

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Speaker 3: Caled you ready to talk some Royals baseball.

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Speaker 5: I couldn't be more excited.

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Speaker 6: Everybody should know that spring training tickets for the Dodgers

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Speaker 6: went on sale today And the reason why that's important

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Speaker 6: to me is because I'm flying out and I wanted

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Speaker 6: to see the Royals Dodgers on Sunday night, March fourteenth,

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Speaker 6: because it's my team versus the World champs.

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Speaker 5: Tickets sold out at.

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Speaker 6: Spring training in four minutes, and I think there's just

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Speaker 6: a hunger for the sport. I mean, there's some of

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Speaker 6: us have not been to a game and forever. All

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Speaker 6: of us are ready for a return to normalcy in baseball.

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Speaker 4: Colin Wilson the only man in America that is excited

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Speaker 4: for Royals baseball on March fourteenth and not selection Sunday.

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Speaker 4: But yes, I shared your enthusiasm for the baseball season.

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Speaker 4: Maybe not that particular day, but you gotta love it. Cirillo,

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Speaker 4: you have some great content out already. You ready to

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Speaker 4: be the villain and talk astros love.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I'm ready to talk some conspiracy theories and ready

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Speaker 7: to get into the drone baseball, some secret human ours.

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Speaker 7: I still feel guilty that I was at the last

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Speaker 7: spring training game that had fans before baseball became a

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Speaker 7: fanalist environment. Was the eight by six months. Pretty surreal

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Speaker 7: experience to have been at. But let's get into some

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Speaker 7: weird stuff.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, let's start here. We'll start with just kind of

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Speaker 4: the lay of the land.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, let's do this.

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Speaker 4: It should be a more we hope and we think

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Speaker 4: it's going to be a more normal season.

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Speaker 3: But there are still some leftover rule changes from last year.

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Speaker 4: And we y all about on the podcast. Hey we

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Speaker 4: found we did this, yelled in the slack. We're on Twitter.

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Speaker 4: We found out that there was humid OIDs that we

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Speaker 4: didn't know about. There's apparently five secret humidors where we

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Speaker 4: don't know where they are yet. At least they told

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Speaker 4: us about ball changes and mob doesn't really they're not

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Speaker 4: known for sharing things and having full transparency. Do you

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Speaker 4: want to catch everyone up on some of these rule

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Speaker 4: changes and where we stand.

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Speaker 7: In terms of the human wars situation. Colorado and Arizona

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Speaker 7: were established before last year. We found out on August

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Speaker 7: tenth last year in the tenth paragraph of a random

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Speaker 7: article that they had installed human ores at City field

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Speaker 7: in New York, Fenway, Seattle, and Minnesota. And now there's

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Speaker 7: five more humid ors this year that we're told about,

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Speaker 7: but we are not able to know where they are.

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Speaker 7: So we are going to have to look at the

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Speaker 7: data during the season figure out why balls aren't is

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Speaker 7: flying as far at a few parks, and that's not

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Speaker 7: just going to be related to the humids. MLB has

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Speaker 7: also decided to change the baseball again this year, really

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Speaker 7: good reporting by Stephanie Epstein over at Sports Illustrated. A

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Speaker 7: bunch of other writers have covered it. But Meredith Willis,

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Speaker 7: who's an astrophysicist, team officials were actually sneaking balls out

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Speaker 7: of stadiums to send them to her. You know, MLB

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Speaker 7: owns rawlings but refuses to give clubs any information with

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Speaker 7: regards to the ball data. So Meredith was testing these

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Speaker 7: baseballs and was able to determine that not only did

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Speaker 7: MLB change the ball between the twenty nineteen regular season

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Speaker 7: and postseason, they use different batches of baseballs throughout the

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Speaker 7: twenty twenty regular season, apparently getting ready to use a

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Speaker 7: fully different baseball in twenty twenty one, and again they

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Speaker 7: also changed the baseball before the twenty twenty postseason. So

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Speaker 7: essentially we've had five different periods where we've had five

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Speaker 7: different baseballs in play over the past two years. The

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Speaker 7: expected difference in the twenty twenty one ball is about

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Speaker 7: five percent of a loss in terms of home run output.

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Speaker 7: It's like if you took five feet and added it

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Speaker 7: to every outfield in the major leagues. That's that's what

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Speaker 7: the expected difference should be. But we're not really sure.

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Speaker 7: The KBO changed their ball a few years ago, and

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Speaker 7: I believe they reduced the weight by one gram where

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Speaker 7: the MLB ball is going to be two and a

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Speaker 7: half grams lighter, and that difference in the KBO ball

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Speaker 7: led to a fourteen percent decrease in slugging percentage a

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Speaker 7: forty percent decrease in home run rate. So you know,

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Speaker 7: we can try to guess as well as we can

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Speaker 7: what's going to happen.

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Speaker 3: But ultimately the combination of the.

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Speaker 7: Humid oors, a different ball players having more time in

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Speaker 7: spring to prep, you know, relative to what they had

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Speaker 7: last year. We don't really know what the difference could be.

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Speaker 7: And because of that, I'm going to be very careful

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Speaker 7: about betting totals, especially early in the season.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, for those not familiar a human or what it does.

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Speaker 4: Is it just, you know, instead of storing the balls

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Speaker 4: and the dug out of the storm and the humand

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Speaker 4: door if there's a higher water content and the exit

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Speaker 4: velocity goes down a bit. Have you what a sport?

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Speaker 4: They just find out all the stuff after the fact.

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Speaker 4: Have you also heard this just in there? They're now

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Speaker 4: changing to aluminum bats also in one of the leagues.

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Speaker 4: I haven't said which one yet. This is crazy, but kidding.

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Speaker 4: By the way, Colin, how about other rule changes as

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Speaker 4: far as doubleheaders, extra innings and you want to catch

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Speaker 4: everyone up there and I'm curious to get are are

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Speaker 4: you a fan of both?

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Speaker 5: Well?

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Speaker 6: I think it's interesting how teams are going to roster

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Speaker 6: themselves when you consider the fact that they're going to

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Speaker 6: start putting a man on second base, like that's going

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Speaker 6: to be a stable thing. Now you're going to get

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Speaker 6: a guy on second base to start every extra inning.

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Speaker 5: I don't like the rule personally. And then the DH rule.

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Speaker 6: I figured we'd get some resolution to this, and it

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Speaker 6: seems like we're not going to have a universal DH.

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Speaker 5: You know here. And I'm an NL guy. I mean,

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Speaker 5: I grew up being a nationally guy.

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Speaker 6: Even though that I love the Royals, I've always been

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Speaker 6: a thing where I thought pitchers should bad. If you're

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Speaker 6: going to be in somebody, I think you should get

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Speaker 6: up to the plate and take one by the head.

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Speaker 6: So apparently National League still sticking with pitchers are going

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Speaker 6: to bat and seven inning double headers are still in play.

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Speaker 6: I don't know your guys' opinion about it, but for me,

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Speaker 6: from a betting standpoint, it throws the numbers off. I

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Speaker 6: have to start guessing which umpire. From a total standpoint,

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Speaker 6: umpires play a big decision whether I hit overs and

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Speaker 6: unders because some of them have small strike zones, some

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Speaker 6: the have large strike zones. And when you have these,

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Speaker 6: you know, double headers that are seven innings long, I

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Speaker 6: really can't tell you who the whole plate umpire is.

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Speaker 5: Going to be.

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Speaker 6: You know, at least a day in advance or an

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Speaker 6: hour in dvance. So those are still things in play

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Speaker 6: here for twenty twenty one.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, there's sevening double headers, I mean the last I

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Speaker 4: assume we're not going to have as many this year

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Speaker 4: as we did last year, So at whatever the extra

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Speaker 4: innings rule as a better I don't like it, just

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Speaker 4: because if I bet on the game, it just just

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Speaker 4: there's just so much there as it's like a lottery.

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Speaker 3: You're playing in extra innings.

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Speaker 4: From a game theory and strategic perspective, and just it's

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Speaker 4: highly entertaining to watch in that aspect. I do love it,

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Speaker 4: Zerl'm curious to get your thoughts on those aspects.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you know what, as.

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Speaker 7: Long as we know everything that's going to happen in

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Speaker 7: advance of these games, I'm fine with it. If you

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Speaker 7: guys recall last year on opening Day they decided to

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Speaker 7: add a whole round to the playoffs, and everybody who

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Speaker 7: had had World Series futures locked in had their value

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Speaker 7: of those tickets cut in half just by a decision

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Speaker 7: of Baseball deciding that there should be an extra round

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Speaker 7: and they wanted some extra TV money. Just keep in

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Speaker 7: mind everything that we're going to be talking about here

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Speaker 7: is relative to the old playoff format with two wildcard

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Speaker 7: teams and division champions getting in. I'm not accounting for

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Speaker 7: an extra wildcard round, which basically takes any value away

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Speaker 7: from you know, the top teams in the league because

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Speaker 7: it forces them to play another series where they have

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Speaker 7: a sixty five percent chance of winning it best. So

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Speaker 7: it's something that I would prefer to see that the

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Speaker 7: DH stick around in the National League, just because teams

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Speaker 7: like the Reds and the Mets sort of set themselves

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Speaker 7: up to be able to have that going forward.

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Speaker 4: Just the one thing with the extratings that it just

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Speaker 4: feels so random to me. It's just who starts on

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Speaker 4: second is completely random, Like I could is it you know,

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Speaker 4: one of your fastest guys against the team you're betting against,

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Speaker 4: and then you might just randomly have a guy who's

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Speaker 4: not fast and that makes a huge difference when you're

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Speaker 4: starting on second.

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Speaker 3: But I digress. We will let's get let's jump into

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Speaker 3: the American League.

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Speaker 4: Well, we're going to tackle the National League later in

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Speaker 4: the week. We'll go through all of the divisions and

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Speaker 4: then we'll finish up with some futures. Overall, high level

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Speaker 4: thoughts and Colin, I think is going to provide some

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Speaker 4: long shot props. I know Zerolla will be writing about

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Speaker 4: cy Young and some of that stuff here shortly on

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Speaker 4: Action Network dot com and the Action Network at We

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Speaker 4: also have a new guest which I'll we'll get to

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Speaker 4: at the very end, someone that we hire that I

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Speaker 4: think is gonna make all of our baseball content just

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Speaker 4: that much better.

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Speaker 3: So let's jump into.

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Speaker 4: The A L East, which I think is one of

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Speaker 4: the most interesting divisions for a number of reasons. But

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Speaker 4: look last year in the short season, Tampa Bay won

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Speaker 4: the division with ease by seven games over the Yankees,

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Speaker 4: and the Blue Jays also made the playoffs, and then

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Speaker 4: you had Oriols and the Red Sox bringing.

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Speaker 5: Up the rear.

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Speaker 4: There's a lot of activity in the off season for

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Speaker 4: these teams. I think most of the three potential contenders.

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Speaker 4: If you think it's going to be between the Jays,

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Speaker 4: the Rays and the Yankees, is about pitching depth, right

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Speaker 4: the Rays let Snell and Wharton Gough. Chris Archer's back

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Speaker 4: in Tampa. You think they won that trade with the Pirates.

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Speaker 4: Is Chris Sale going to come back at ward? Orriguez

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Speaker 4: is going to come back for the Red Sox, but like,

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Speaker 4: there's just so many questions about pitching the Jays. It's

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Speaker 4: Riu and is Pearson gonna step up? And then then

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Speaker 4: what lots of questions with the Yankees. Who are they're

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Speaker 4: potentially going to need to rely on, you know, Corey Klueber,

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Speaker 4: Jameson Tallion who have barely pitched.

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Speaker 3: Over the last year or two. So lots of questions

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Speaker 3: in the pitching department. Fascinating division.

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Speaker 4: Lot throat to use it all first, just overall thoughts,

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Speaker 4: some win totals that you like. Let's talk some al

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Speaker 4: East here.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: So I think this is clearly the best division in

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Speaker 3: the American League.

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Speaker 7: All four projection systems that are reference on my own

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Speaker 7: but also Davenport, Fangrafts, and Pakoda have the average wins

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Speaker 7: in this division over eighty one point nine per team.

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Speaker 7: Four teams expected to come close to five hundred are

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Speaker 7: better than the Orioles, famously given a zero point zero

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Speaker 7: percent chance of making the playoffs by Fangrafts, the only

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Speaker 7: team I respect.

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Speaker 3: What the Yankees did. They attacked guys.

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Speaker 7: Who are low floor, high ceiling, you know, Clueber and

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Speaker 7: tie On kind of fits with their offensive side.

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Speaker 3: Of the roster with.

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Speaker 7: Stanton and Sanchez being completely enigmatic, and I show slight

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Speaker 7: value on the Yankees to win the World Series. I

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Speaker 7: have them projected at seventeen and a half percent. That's

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Speaker 7: plus four seventy one. You know, if you get plus

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Speaker 7: seven hundred or better, I might be interested in that.

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Speaker 7: It's a little bit lower in the market. And even

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Speaker 7: at our divisional odds, I have them projected at sixty

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Speaker 7: seven percent. Probably need closer to like minus one sixty

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Speaker 7: to bet that it's it's up around minus two hundred,

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Speaker 7: So no bet there. But really this division revolves around

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Speaker 7: how you project the Rays, and I think the Rays

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Speaker 7: are going to be an interesting case study into how

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Speaker 7: baseball is played in the coming years. You know, we've

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Speaker 7: seen step one with the opener. We've seen step two

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Speaker 7: a little bit in the playoffs last year, one time

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Speaker 7: through the order per pitcher, getting three guys who turn

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Speaker 7: over the lineup once each. You can go through a

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Speaker 7: game with three or four pitchers, but each of them

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Speaker 7: are going two and.

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Speaker 3: A half inex well.

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Speaker 7: The Rays signed Chris Archer, Colin mcew, Michael Waka, and

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Speaker 7: Rich Hill. I don't think they're gonna be using those

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Speaker 7: guys as complete starters. I expect the Rays and this

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Speaker 7: new iteration of baseball that we're gonna see a lot

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Speaker 7: more two to four ining stints from pitchers. Get in,

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Speaker 7: get out, turn over the lineup once, and that's it,

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Speaker 7: go to your dominant relievers. So it's really hard to

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Speaker 7: project the Raised team because of that, Like, you can't

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Speaker 7: just project these guys as starting pitchers. They're not gonna

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Speaker 7: five and dive and then go bullpen. They're gonna mix

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Speaker 7: and match them, and it's gonna be really hard to

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Speaker 7: play them because they have all these change ups and

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Speaker 7: breaking balls that they can mix and match against certain

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Speaker 7: styles of hitters, depending on where you are in the lineup.

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Speaker 7: So yes, like most projection systems have the Rays about

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Speaker 7: five wins behind the Yankees, but I think that gap

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Speaker 7: is significantly closer than what the mass shows just because

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Speaker 7: of how they're gonna play it. They also have the

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Speaker 7: number one farm system in baseball, number one prospect wander

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Speaker 7: Francodal Bruhan.

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Speaker 3: Who is a really high hit tool.

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Speaker 7: This team is going to become a little bit more

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Speaker 7: offensive leaning in the future, and that future could be

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Speaker 7: written this year. So not only do they have the

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Speaker 7: arms that can kind of amalgamate what they got out

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Speaker 7: of Blake Snell, but they can also improve their offensive

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Speaker 7: side a little bit and become become more of a

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Speaker 7: formidable team on both sides of the ball. The thing

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Speaker 7: the note with Toronto is that they're going to be

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Speaker 7: playing their home games in Dunedin. It's far to state league,

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Speaker 7: very low offensive environment in that league, but the park

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Speaker 7: factor for home runs in Dunedin was forty four percent

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Speaker 7: above league average, so it's possible that we could see

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Speaker 7: some high scoring games in Toronto's home games. As for

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Speaker 7: win tolls, you know, it's these these four teams, like

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Speaker 7: I said, all projected to finish close to five hundred,

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Speaker 7: are better, including the Red Sox, who I think they

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Speaker 7: made some improvements even though they're not willing to spend

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Speaker 7: shipped off at attendee. But the Orioles under sixty six

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Speaker 7: and a half wins sixty five and a half wins

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Speaker 7: are better.

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Speaker 3: I'm good with.

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Speaker 7: I have the projected at sixty one point eight, other

289
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Speaker 7: projection systems sixty three, sixty three point one, sixty five

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Speaker 7: point six. I think it's going to be really tough

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Speaker 7: for the Orioles to take a step forward this year.

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Speaker 7: I think there's still at least the year away from

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Speaker 7: you know, potentially crawling back towards five hundred. So sixty

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Speaker 7: six and a half you can get to the West

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Speaker 7: Gate right now. Like I said, comfortable down is sixty

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Speaker 7: five and a half.

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Speaker 3: On the Orioles.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, one of my favorite pictures or screen grabs of

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Speaker 4: all time in baseball history is the Orioles finishing sixty

300
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Speaker 4: what one games out of first place in the division.

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Speaker 3: Two years ago? I'm curious.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree with you on the on the race,

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Speaker 4: and you have to always assume that whoever they're bringing

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Speaker 4: in and whoever they're trading for, they're usually going to

305
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Speaker 4: win that trade, and you're going to see a bump

306
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Speaker 4: in production on some of the guys they bring, especially pictures.

307
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Speaker 4: But I also have trouble projecting the Yankees because I

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Speaker 4: number one, I don't know what I'm going to get

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Speaker 4: from Klueber. I don't know what I'm going to get

310
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Speaker 4: from tai On. I don't know. I mean, is Herman

311
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Speaker 4: what am I getting from him? Seven arena off of surgery?

312
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Speaker 4: So after Garrett Cole, what are your thoughts.

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Speaker 3: On the Division? Do you have high expectations for any

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Speaker 3: of these guys.

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Speaker 4: You have Montgomery, you assume is going to have the spot,

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Speaker 4: and he's a lefty and can he actually go five

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Speaker 4: six innings and maintain some form of stamina?

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Speaker 3: So tons of questions about that rotation. Do you have

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Speaker 3: just any thoughts there?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, David Garcia as well, really interesting armies. I think

321
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Speaker 7: he's only five 't seven, but that guy throw his gas.

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Speaker 7: So they, like I said, they have a lot of

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Speaker 7: high upside talent on that team. But this is a

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Speaker 7: year where with other strong teams in their division like

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Speaker 7: the Rays and the Jas, and if there's only gonna

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Speaker 7: be two wild cards, I certainly think one of the

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Speaker 7: White Sox or Twins are going to be taking one

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Speaker 7: of those spots. So the Yankees can miss the playoffs.

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Speaker 7: I think this is the most vulnerable they've been in

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Speaker 7: terms of missing the playoffs in quite some time. They

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Speaker 7: need everybody to stay healthy, and they need a couple

332
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Speaker 7: of breakout performances, and they also need guys like gio

333
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Speaker 7: Urshla who have been consistent to keep being good. You know,

334
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Speaker 7: Gio Urshla seemingly came out of nowhere. I mean, they

335
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Speaker 7: unlock something with him, but these other performances that they've

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Speaker 7: gotten from bit players they need to continue in addition

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Speaker 7: to having a few of their stars stay healthy and perform.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and they still have a lot of great arms

339
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Speaker 4: in the bullpen. They'll need their bullpen to stay healthy

340
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Speaker 4: and continue to be dominant. They'll need Chapman to be great, Britain, etc.

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Speaker 4: So Colin, let me throw it to you, Al East

342
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Speaker 4: thoughts any teams that jump out or you want to

343
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Speaker 4: talk about.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I think you're gonna hear a ton of negativity

345
00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:13,680
Speaker 6: for me on four of these teams and a lot

346
00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:16,000
Speaker 6: of positivity for me on one of these teams.

347
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Speaker 5: So I'll start at the top with the Yankees.

348
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Speaker 7: The New York Yankee, New York Y.

349
00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:30,400
Speaker 6: Rut, Gary Demaggio, Manto Costanzo, back business. The Yankees haven't

350
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Speaker 6: been to the World Series in twelve years. I had

351
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Speaker 6: to look that up, Like it's been that long since

352
00:16:34,440 --> 00:16:36,920
Speaker 6: the greatest franchise in baseball has really been a you

353
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Speaker 6: know the key.

354
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Speaker 4: First decade in over one hundred years that they didn't

355
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Speaker 4: make a World Series.

356
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Speaker 6: Yeah, what are these zoomers whatever the generation there is

357
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Speaker 6: or they're calling after generation ze, What are they going

358
00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:48,920
Speaker 6: to think about these Yankees that haven't been to the

359
00:16:48,960 --> 00:16:51,600
Speaker 6: World Series in forever. But I mean, Kluber is a

360
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Speaker 6: number two. I had issues with this guy's health a

361
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Speaker 6: year ago. And my other problem that we talked about

362
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Speaker 6: a year ago on this podcast was that I did

363
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Speaker 6: not like the new Yankees pitching coach because he was

364
00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:03,440
Speaker 6: more stat oriented than somebody that could help out with

365
00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:05,800
Speaker 6: mechanics and health. And that plays a big part of

366
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Speaker 6: my kind of fade of the Yankees. And let's talk

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Speaker 6: about health on the offense. When's the last time that

368
00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:13,920
Speaker 6: we've seen this offense with Judge and Stanton and everybody

369
00:17:13,920 --> 00:17:16,320
Speaker 6: stay healthy. It just doesn't happen. And that you know,

370
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Speaker 6: if you look at Glaber Torres in the contract situation,

371
00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:21,040
Speaker 6: there's a lot of one year deals and the Yankees

372
00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:22,879
Speaker 6: have got to make a lot of decisions here, and

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Speaker 6: Glaber Torres is worth every single penny in my opinion.

374
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Speaker 6: You know, he's projected to have home runs the mid thirties.

375
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Speaker 6: It's worth noting his strikeout rate went from twenty one

376
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Speaker 6: percent down to seventeen percent. He's now making four million

377
00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:36,840
Speaker 6: on a deal, while Judge is making like ten million

378
00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:39,119
Speaker 6: on a deal, and Stanton's making twenty nine million, so

379
00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:41,400
Speaker 6: they're going to have to pay glabor tors and he's

380
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Speaker 6: worth every penny. And I think the real like, if

381
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Speaker 6: there's a prop on the team with the Yankees that

382
00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:48,600
Speaker 6: I kind of like, it's it's Luke Boydt And I

383
00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:50,760
Speaker 6: know everybody loved him for that home run last year

384
00:17:51,160 --> 00:17:54,440
Speaker 6: and in that chase, But what about RBIs here because

385
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Speaker 6: I know Zips projects him at five hundred and nine

386
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Speaker 6: plate appearances in ninety seven RBIs, But if Yankees can't

387
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Speaker 6: stay healthy on their offense, Void's the guy that's going

388
00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:05,640
Speaker 6: to be consistently swinging in a three, four, five hole

389
00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:08,000
Speaker 6: and probably you know, have enough protection with the other

390
00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:09,240
Speaker 6: guys that are in the lineup.

391
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Speaker 5: So I'm looking at Luke voight futures.

392
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Speaker 6: I know he's listed at sixty to one Circus Sports

393
00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:17,680
Speaker 6: in Colorado and Nevada for home run.

394
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Speaker 5: You know, I'll move on to the race.

395
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Speaker 6: They torment me as a guy that plays fantasy baseball

396
00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:24,920
Speaker 6: because you have starting pitchers that'll only go three innings.

397
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Speaker 6: Colin mceu is the most perfect three inning pitcher in

398
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Speaker 6: the world because the set when the lineup would see

399
00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:32,320
Speaker 6: him for the second time when he was an astro.

400
00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:34,760
Speaker 6: They tore him apart. He was a fourth inning, fifth inning.

401
00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:37,439
Speaker 6: He would just kill your bets. So the Rays are

402
00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:39,760
Speaker 6: really in a funky space where they have a lot

403
00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:41,960
Speaker 6: of guys with one year left on their deal. We're

404
00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:46,280
Speaker 6: talking Brandon Lowe, Kevin Kiermeier, the contract for Chris Archer,

405
00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:49,320
Speaker 6: Michael Waka, Rich Hill, and mcewe they're all just one year.

406
00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:51,560
Speaker 6: So I feel like twenty twenty two could be that

407
00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:54,000
Speaker 6: year where it's just a complete change in direction where

408
00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:55,120
Speaker 6: they look to go a little bit.

409
00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:57,199
Speaker 5: Of offense and just I'm not sure this is the

410
00:18:57,240 --> 00:18:57,800
Speaker 5: same race.

411
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Speaker 6: I know what they're trying to do, and they're going

412
00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:01,919
Speaker 6: to try to re defind baseball, but I feel like

413
00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:05,080
Speaker 6: they're in transition because Wander Franco, who is the best

414
00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:07,959
Speaker 6: prospect in baseball, hasn't been called up yet. He's been

415
00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:10,280
Speaker 6: assigned number five at spring training from what I saw,

416
00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:13,080
Speaker 6: so I think they're planning on him being their opening day.

417
00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:15,280
Speaker 6: But sometimes you know, the gems and owners get a

418
00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:17,440
Speaker 6: little funky and they want to hold the service time back.

419
00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:18,280
Speaker 5: So we'll see.

420
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Speaker 6: I just feel like it's a transition year for the Rays,

421
00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:23,480
Speaker 6: and so they're kind of out there for me Baltimore.

422
00:19:24,119 --> 00:19:27,879
Speaker 6: Listen when Baltimore is playing the Toronto Blue Jays taken

423
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Speaker 6: over this year, whenever the weekend series is I mean,

424
00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:33,200
Speaker 6: we're talking bullpens and starting pitching for both of these

425
00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:36,560
Speaker 6: teams take and over on these individual games when they

426
00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:38,000
Speaker 6: play each other, It's going to be a ton of

427
00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:40,119
Speaker 6: offense for the Orioles. I think there's a lot of

428
00:19:40,119 --> 00:19:43,280
Speaker 6: fun guys to look at. Adlie Rushman, He'll be called up.

429
00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:45,640
Speaker 6: He's the number two prospect in baseball at some point.

430
00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:49,520
Speaker 6: Anthony Santander is projected to hit twenty nine home runs.

431
00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:52,720
Speaker 6: So from a fantasy perspective, don't ignore the Orioles. They

432
00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:54,920
Speaker 6: have some guys that can hit. I would just look

433
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Speaker 6: at hitting a lot of overs during the season and

434
00:19:57,280 --> 00:19:59,959
Speaker 6: hopefully by razorback Heston Kirschtad who got drafted comes up

435
00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:02,160
Speaker 6: and starts the home run party with them. And I'm

436
00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:04,080
Speaker 6: just gonna skip the Red Sox because I don't know

437
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:07,000
Speaker 6: what's going on with Jad Martinez and Raffield Beavers. The

438
00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:09,440
Speaker 6: Red Sox are a mess like from top to bottom.

439
00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:13,080
Speaker 6: But from a betting standpoint, the number keeps dropping on

440
00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:15,159
Speaker 6: the WINT and I agree with it, but if it

441
00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:17,200
Speaker 6: gets to seventy nine and a half or seventy nine,

442
00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:19,680
Speaker 6: you got to start considering the over on this team

443
00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:22,240
Speaker 6: because there's at least enough talent in places to get

444
00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:23,399
Speaker 6: to seventy nine wins.

445
00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:25,919
Speaker 5: It's the love here for me is all on the

446
00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:26,680
Speaker 5: Blue Jays.

447
00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:30,040
Speaker 6: If you look at this park, this single A spring

448
00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:33,160
Speaker 6: training park, it was the number one home run park

449
00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:35,320
Speaker 6: for per part factors for Single A.

450
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:37,560
Speaker 5: And you're gonna give this offense.

451
00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:41,320
Speaker 6: You're gonna get Boba schet Vladimerdirero Junior, a springer, ti

452
00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:43,840
Speaker 6: Oscar Hernandez a shot to hit home runs out of

453
00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,639
Speaker 6: this park. The Blue Jays are going to be in

454
00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:49,840
Speaker 6: a ton of double digit ballgames. Do they have the

455
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:52,240
Speaker 6: pitching to win this division? No, but they do have

456
00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:55,200
Speaker 6: the prospects to go out at the trade deadline and contend.

457
00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:57,719
Speaker 6: They made a huge jump last year that forty to

458
00:20:57,720 --> 00:20:59,680
Speaker 6: one on the division. I said last year it had

459
00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:02,240
Speaker 6: real legs, and I expect them to continue to progress.

460
00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:05,800
Speaker 6: You know, the pitching staff is, you know, Robbie Ray,

461
00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:07,280
Speaker 6: that's just not going to get it done for you.

462
00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:10,160
Speaker 6: He's not going to get it done. Nate Pearson is

463
00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:12,280
Speaker 6: is their first round draft pick from twenty seventeen. He

464
00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:14,560
Speaker 6: still needs to develop to be the ace of the staff.

465
00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:17,480
Speaker 6: But Kirby Yates, you know, I gotta watch him at

466
00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:19,879
Speaker 6: spring training. Sadly, he's listed at twenty to one in

467
00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:22,320
Speaker 6: DK for most saves. I feel like he's got a

468
00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:24,639
Speaker 6: return to for him for that to have any value whatsoever.

469
00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:27,119
Speaker 6: So keep your eyes on Kirby Yates during the spring.

470
00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:32,800
Speaker 6: The bet here for me is ti Oscar Hernandez. In everything,

471
00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:35,640
Speaker 6: he is listed as the number four hitter, projected number

472
00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:39,359
Speaker 6: four hitter, and in a year in twenty twenty where

473
00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:42,320
Speaker 6: they're changing the ball, there's humidors, there's all this shit

474
00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:45,640
Speaker 6: going on. The exit velocity dropped in the league one

475
00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:48,800
Speaker 6: two percent from every batter right across the league, exit

476
00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:52,000
Speaker 6: velocity was down for ti Oscar Hernandez it went up

477
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:55,560
Speaker 6: two percent and his hard hit percentage went up five percent.

478
00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:59,240
Speaker 6: So I love ti Oscar Hernandez and any prop you

479
00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:00,840
Speaker 6: can find on him and.

480
00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:04,400
Speaker 4: Stuff con Before we move on to the Al Central, Drell,

481
00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 4: I'm curious to get your thoughts if.

482
00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:08,000
Speaker 3: You have any on on the Red Sox.

483
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:11,719
Speaker 4: I mean, I guess the ideal world, you know, sale

484
00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:14,160
Speaker 4: at Rodriguez you know, hit their ceilings.

485
00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:15,560
Speaker 3: They did add some more depth.

486
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:18,879
Speaker 4: If anyone in the world is considering a Red Sox

487
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:23,399
Speaker 4: long shot, should they say just stop or could you

488
00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:24,600
Speaker 4: see any.

489
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:25,440
Speaker 3: Upside with this team?

490
00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:27,639
Speaker 7: I think because the you know, like I mentioned, the

491
00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:30,520
Speaker 7: three other teams in front of them division are really tough.

492
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 7: That would be my hesitancy. If you stick this team

493
00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:35,200
Speaker 7: in to Ale Central, I think it's much closer to

494
00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:37,960
Speaker 7: them potentially grabbing a wild card spot and making some noise.

495
00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:40,639
Speaker 7: I did like the signing of kek hernandez Kik is

496
00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:43,560
Speaker 7: one of the most underrated defensive players in baseball, so

497
00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:45,760
Speaker 7: I think that is a direction that they're looking to go.

498
00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:48,560
Speaker 7: Is the fine value on the defensive end. They're just

499
00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:52,200
Speaker 7: they're taking some cost cutting gambles that don't look great

500
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:54,399
Speaker 7: from an optics perspective of a team that should be

501
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:56,919
Speaker 7: a big market team, But in a vacuum of what

502
00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:59,160
Speaker 7: they're trying to do, I think they're smart baseball moves.

503
00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:01,400
Speaker 7: So yeah, it's going to be a more competitive Red

504
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:05,000
Speaker 7: Sox team than the absolute abomination that they were last year.

505
00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:07,480
Speaker 7: I'm still looking for a book to honor my under

506
00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:09,639
Speaker 7: ninety four and under ninety three and a half wins.

507
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:12,280
Speaker 7: That's from last year because I don't think I'll ever

508
00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:14,520
Speaker 7: make a better bet in my life. I really don't

509
00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:16,200
Speaker 7: know if I will ever make a better.

510
00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:18,520
Speaker 3: Bet in my life than the CLV god mode.

511
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:21,399
Speaker 7: It's not great for a big market team to be

512
00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 7: making these moves, but they're not behaving like a big

513
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:24,680
Speaker 7: market team anymore.

514
00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:27,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, I actually like the signing of under Renfro. He's

515
00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:31,399
Speaker 4: and he's isn't he significant? He's really underrated in the

516
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:34,240
Speaker 4: field too, right, Like he is a good defender as well. Yes, yep,

517
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:37,160
Speaker 4: they're shoring up the defense. The bullpen was the major

518
00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:39,440
Speaker 4: issue for them last year. They couldn't get anybody out.

519
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:41,359
Speaker 4: I feel like every game that they played with the

520
00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:45,960
Speaker 4: Orioles ended twelve to ten. So I think the bullpens

521
00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:46,760
Speaker 4: outside of.

522
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:50,159
Speaker 7: Tampa and potentially the Yankees could still be a disaster.

523
00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:51,680
Speaker 3: In the Al East. Let's yeah.

524
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:54,480
Speaker 4: Ren Renfro was one of those guys where you think

525
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:55,919
Speaker 4: about him when you look at him and you're like,

526
00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 4: he's probably not a great defent.

527
00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:57,720
Speaker 3: Every time I.

528
00:23:57,720 --> 00:23:59,879
Speaker 4: Have to check, I have to like go to fangrass

529
00:23:59,880 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 4: and you're like, ohait he is all right? I thought

530
00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 4: so all right, But let's move on to the AL Central.

531
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 4: Last year, with three teams made the playoffs, Minnesota one.

532
00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:11,920
Speaker 4: I mean, the division was a crazy, crazy right down

533
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:15,359
Speaker 4: of the wide. Minnesota ended with thirty six wins. Cleveland

534
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 4: I'm sorry to bring this up, Zerilla right, Cleveland and

535
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:23,399
Speaker 4: the White Sox had thirty five wins. You had the

536
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:25,760
Speaker 4: White Sox, right, and they melted down on the final

537
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:27,120
Speaker 4: weekend or the final week.

538
00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:29,760
Speaker 7: I believe they had a game lead with three to

539
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:32,879
Speaker 7: go and they got swept or yeah, they were in

540
00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:35,160
Speaker 7: the driver's seat with a few games left and believe

541
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:39,240
Speaker 7: about ten units weren't the profit. Thankfully, the podcast consensus

542
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:40,960
Speaker 7: pick was the Open A's that win the al Wes.

543
00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 7: So we made everybody a bunch of money, but would

544
00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:44,760
Speaker 7: have padded my profit for the end of the year

545
00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:45,440
Speaker 7: a little bit more.

546
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:46,240
Speaker 3: Yeah.

547
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:50,240
Speaker 4: So this year, I think the ALE Central is probably

548
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:55,120
Speaker 4: one of the I don't know, the least exciting divisions

549
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:56,440
Speaker 4: from an offseason perspective.

550
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:59,080
Speaker 3: I mean, you had the Indians who were basically payroll

551
00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:02,200
Speaker 3: dumping cleve Lynn Ross.

552
00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:08,240
Speaker 4: Cleve Len Rots, Cleveln Rots, Cleveland Ross. But Roberto Perez

553
00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 4: is gonna be there. What are they with thirty million payroll.

554
00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:14,200
Speaker 4: On opening day, Projective for It said something crazy. They

555
00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:17,240
Speaker 4: you know, the Tigers are in rebuild mode. The Royals

556
00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:19,440
Speaker 4: like Colin talking too, but there's still the Royals. It's

557
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:22,200
Speaker 4: basically a two team race. I think between the White

558
00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:25,320
Speaker 4: Sox and the Twins, there's actually more manager news or

559
00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:28,959
Speaker 4: exciting manager news than player news in the off season.

560
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:32,200
Speaker 4: I think that the main discussion here is like, how

561
00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:34,080
Speaker 4: bad do you think some of these teams in the

562
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:36,040
Speaker 4: bottom of the division are going to be? And then

563
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 4: who do you fancy more? The Twins or the White Sox.

564
00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 4: So I'll start with you. You can start with your Royals.

565
00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:46,879
Speaker 4: Are you gonna tell everyone here to go out and

566
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:48,760
Speaker 4: buy a Royals World Series long shot?

567
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 3: I hope not. But what are your thoughts on the

568
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:52,040
Speaker 3: rules and then the division in general?

569
00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:54,360
Speaker 6: Well, what's funny is I think the discussion point here

570
00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:56,119
Speaker 6: is going to be the team that's projected to be

571
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:58,439
Speaker 6: the bottom of the of the division, which is the

572
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:00,760
Speaker 6: Detroit Tigers. There is a book out there that put

573
00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 6: out seventy and a half on their win total, and

574
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 6: I know that this is a number that Zurillo projects.

575
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:08,359
Speaker 5: You know, much lower, and the rest of the books.

576
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:11,359
Speaker 6: It's really interesting because once we kind of identified that

577
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 6: we thought that the Tiger's number was a little bit

578
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 6: too high. I saw Westgate jump from like sixty eight

579
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:18,640
Speaker 6: to sixty six to sixty eight.

580
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:21,280
Speaker 5: I saw dk TA go up a notch on their

581
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:21,879
Speaker 5: win total.

582
00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:24,800
Speaker 6: And the fact is is that betters like this Detroit,

583
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 6: you know, this youth movement that they have going on,

584
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:29,960
Speaker 6: and some of their pitching staff that they still have there.

585
00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:37,480
Speaker 6: They try, but they don't have enough to get to

586
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 6: qualify for this win total whatsoever. I mean, the talent

587
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:44,080
Speaker 6: that they have in house is exciting, but this isn't

588
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 6: the year. And the GM is really what made up

589
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:49,679
Speaker 6: my decision. Of Alavila, who's you know, Alavilla's dad, the catcher.

590
00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:53,399
Speaker 6: He's flat out said, We're not spending any money on

591
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:55,440
Speaker 6: anybody this year because I don't want to have to

592
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 6: worry about getting rid of players this year or next year.

593
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 6: Twenty twenty two is the year that we will start

594
00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:03,080
Speaker 6: spending money. We will start behaving like the Tigers again.

595
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:05,639
Speaker 6: They are strapped with a thirty million dollar contract on

596
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 6: Miguel Cabrera from now until the end of time, and

597
00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:11,879
Speaker 6: they have a bunch of one year contracts right now,

598
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,520
Speaker 6: and if any of those one year contracts like Jonathan

599
00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:17,800
Speaker 6: Scope or any of those others get hot whatsoever, they're

600
00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:19,439
Speaker 6: going to get dealt at the deadline. This is a

601
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 6: complete youth movement of the Tigers. Do I like the direction?

602
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:22,879
Speaker 5: Yes?

603
00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:25,560
Speaker 6: Because they remind me of the Royals two years ago.

604
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:27,800
Speaker 6: So that brings me up to the Royals, who I

605
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:30,960
Speaker 6: you know, my team asthletely love follow everything that they do.

606
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:35,959
Speaker 6: And last year, you know, Zarrillo talked about the you know,

607
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:38,480
Speaker 6: all of these teams not having any minor league play

608
00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:40,680
Speaker 6: in some of these pitchers that didn't get any service time.

609
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:43,040
Speaker 6: That really kind of hurt the Royals too, except that

610
00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 6: they pushed at their pitchers up to the major league level.

611
00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:48,159
Speaker 6: They kept a lot of their prospect hitters down and

612
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:50,800
Speaker 6: they didn't get any playing time last year. So this

613
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:53,880
Speaker 6: is a real huge year for some of the offensive

614
00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:57,159
Speaker 6: prospects that the Royals have that are unproven. And and

615
00:27:57,440 --> 00:27:58,880
Speaker 6: you know, I think you're going to see a lot

616
00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:02,400
Speaker 6: of jockeying at Omaha and at the Northwest Arkansas level

617
00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:05,359
Speaker 6: with the Royals because their pitchers are ready, and that

618
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:08,520
Speaker 6: you know from from Brady Singer, to bub it to

619
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 6: uh you know, brag Keller. Uh, you know, Danny Duffy's

620
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:13,439
Speaker 6: getting a little long in the tooth. But look at

621
00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:16,200
Speaker 6: the one year contracts at the Royals have signed. Carlos

622
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:20,360
Speaker 6: Santana is coming into bat fourth for them, Andrew ben

623
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 6: Attendi has been brought in from Boston. Michael Taylor a

624
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:25,760
Speaker 6: guy that I've been drafting for years on the Nationals

625
00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:27,920
Speaker 6: and fantasy leagues just because he was always a sleeper.

626
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 6: You look at some of these, you know, Mike Viners

627
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:34,119
Speaker 6: coming back. Now we can talk about Mike Manners terrible

628
00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 6: X spip and how he kind of got away with

629
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:38,959
Speaker 6: some stuff and a great pitcher's part. But you know,

630
00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:43,360
Speaker 6: the Royals are at least assembling a team that can

631
00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:45,360
Speaker 6: win some ballgames. I mean, Greg Holland back is a

632
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 6: closer and Josh Staalmont who can throw one hundred miles

633
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 6: an hour as the eighth inning guy. The Royals are

634
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 6: going to win some games. Are they gonna win the division?

635
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:53,880
Speaker 6: Absolutely not. But they're not the Tigers. They're a year

636
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 6: or two ahead of the Tigers. Yeah, you're right. This

637
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 6: is a two team division. It's going to be a

638
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:00,960
Speaker 6: dogfight to the end. I think they should only be

639
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 6: separated by about two wins. I think Cleveland shipping off

640
00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:06,280
Speaker 6: landor they're going to take a step back here.

641
00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:09,360
Speaker 5: For me, the exciting part of the division is at

642
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:09,880
Speaker 5: the bottom.

643
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 6: I think the Royals, especially with Metheni coming in as

644
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:14,520
Speaker 6: the coach.

645
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:15,760
Speaker 5: What you've got to watch.

646
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:19,280
Speaker 6: For is is he gonna let Aliberto mondesse run because

647
00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:20,720
Speaker 6: that is the fastest guy.

648
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:21,080
Speaker 5: In the league.

649
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 6: And Metheni took some heat for the Cardinals not stealing

650
00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 6: bases when he was their coach, But look at the

651
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:31,400
Speaker 6: players on that squad. Nobody was faster than YadA Air Molina, right,

652
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 6: I mean the Cardinals during his years. That's some real

653
00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:37,040
Speaker 6: slow post guys that don't swipe bag. So look to

654
00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:41,000
Speaker 6: see if alderbertle Mondesssey is taking bases in spring training,

655
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:42,640
Speaker 6: or if there's any whispers of we're going to be

656
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:46,200
Speaker 6: aggressive on the base paths because that DraftKings is worth

657
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:46,520
Speaker 6: a bet.

658
00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:49,240
Speaker 4: Well Kenny get on base too is also a question.

659
00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 4: But Zareel thoughts are the otcentral.

660
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:58,480
Speaker 3: Everything's up to days in Kansas. They've gone about as

661
00:29:58,520 --> 00:29:59,560
Speaker 3: moments vacant go.

662
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:00,480
Speaker 2: Yeah.

663
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:02,400
Speaker 3: I don't have much to add on Collins Royals.

664
00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:04,400
Speaker 7: I do think they're going to be really competitive if

665
00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 7: they finished five hundred or better.

666
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:08,280
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna be surprised at all. They have been improving.

667
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:12,560
Speaker 7: They got those college starting pitchers that they drafted, all

668
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:15,720
Speaker 7: at the same time to the majors pretty quickly. I'm

669
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 7: going to disagree with respect to Cleveland, who I refuse

670
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:20,600
Speaker 7: to call them by their nickname because I don't know

671
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:21,840
Speaker 7: why they haven't dropped it even.

672
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 3: Though they're planning on dropping it.

673
00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 7: This is the best organization of baseball at extracting value

674
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 7: out of what they have. With all due respect to

675
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:32,120
Speaker 7: the Rays, Cleveland is better since twenty thirteen when they

676
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 7: hired Francona.

677
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:35,160
Speaker 3: They have the most wins in the American League.

678
00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 7: They've finished five hundred better every season, and they are

679
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:43,200
Speaker 7: a pitching factory. They lost Klueber, didn't batt and I

680
00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 7: look at Savale, Tristan McKenzie, Zach Pleisak, the bullpen with

681
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 7: James Karen Shack. I mean, they have some of the

682
00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 7: most electric arms in baseball at completely low cost. Shane

683
00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:57,560
Speaker 7: Bieber should have won the American League MVP last year,

684
00:30:57,720 --> 00:31:00,240
Speaker 7: not Justice cy Young. I don't know why he wasn't

685
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:04,600
Speaker 7: up for MVP consideration. Now let's talk about the Lindo

686
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 7: a replacement. The buzziest prospect that I heard about last

687
00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:09,920
Speaker 7: year who we didn't get to see an official minor

688
00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:15,520
Speaker 7: league action shortstop, Tyler Freeman, great bat, average defensive shortstop.

689
00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 7: I don't think they're gonna lose a ton of value there.

690
00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:21,160
Speaker 7: Obviously Lindor is an All Star caliber shortstop, but I

691
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:23,080
Speaker 7: really don't think the drop off is going to be

692
00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:26,719
Speaker 7: as severe as some people are expecting. Minnesota. I think

693
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:29,120
Speaker 7: there's slight value on them to win the division. I

694
00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 7: haven't projected at thirty six point five percent plus one

695
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:34,200
Speaker 7: seventy four. I think you can get them at plus

696
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 7: one to eighty plus one ninety in some places, but

697
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:39,600
Speaker 7: I wouldn't bet at ballo plus two hundred. The White Sox, obviously,

698
00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:41,880
Speaker 7: we were on very early last year, locking in a

699
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:45,240
Speaker 7: World Series future at seventy to one. It looked completely

700
00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 7: dead at the start of the season because they look

701
00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:49,760
Speaker 7: super flat, and then they finished with the best run

702
00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:52,480
Speaker 7: differential in the American League, tied with the Rays, barely

703
00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:53,760
Speaker 7: missed out on winning their division.

704
00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:55,000
Speaker 3: I think they went two to eight.

705
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 7: In their final ten games, you know, if this team

706
00:31:57,040 --> 00:31:59,320
Speaker 7: wins one hundred games, I won't be surprised they added

707
00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:03,480
Speaker 7: Lance Lanley Hendrix, But the personality clash with Tony LaRussa

708
00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:06,840
Speaker 7: as the manager is one of the most hilariously weird

709
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 7: things I can remember in recent baseball memory. You have

710
00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 7: a team filled with a bunch of boisterous players, guys

711
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:17,040
Speaker 7: who like to flip the bat, like Tim Anderson. Is

712
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 7: he going to have Luis Rover laying down bunts?

713
00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 3: Don't? I don't know how that's going to work out.

714
00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 7: So if this team wins one hundred games, I'm not

715
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 7: going to bat and eye if they have the best

716
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:28,040
Speaker 7: record in the AL, if they're the ALE favorites by

717
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:30,320
Speaker 7: the time playoffs come around. But if you look at

718
00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:32,880
Speaker 7: the projection market, I have them in eighty eight point

719
00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 7: nine wins, Davenport has them at eighty four, Fangrafts at

720
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:38,480
Speaker 7: eighty eight, and Pakoda has them at eighty two point

721
00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:41,560
Speaker 7: five wins. And when Pakoda is at least four wins

722
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 7: above or below a market total, and the White Sox

723
00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:47,960
Speaker 7: are they opened it ninety two at the win, I

724
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:49,760
Speaker 7: believe they've come down to ninety one and a half

725
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:52,320
Speaker 7: and lower at every market. When Pakoda's at least four

726
00:32:52,360 --> 00:32:56,080
Speaker 7: wins away, that team tends to follow along with their projection,

727
00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:58,800
Speaker 7: So there's there's a nine win difference there in the projection.

728
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:01,760
Speaker 7: I wouldn't really bet at below ninety two, just because

729
00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:03,440
Speaker 7: I do think this team can be so good, but

730
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 7: I would expect that number to float up again as

731
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,840
Speaker 7: we get closer to opening day. Just in general, there's

732
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:11,120
Speaker 7: gonna be value betting unders. You know you're gonna hear

733
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:13,000
Speaker 7: me talk a lot about a lot of unders, but

734
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:16,840
Speaker 7: books over inflate the wind total market. They're gonna list

735
00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:19,600
Speaker 7: two thousand, four hundred and sixty wins when there can

736
00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:22,000
Speaker 7: only be twenty four hundred and thirty in a season.

737
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 7: You're gonna have thirty extra wins floating the market because

738
00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:27,120
Speaker 7: they know that people like to bet over. So the

739
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:30,040
Speaker 7: White Sox should based on how the other teams in

740
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:33,760
Speaker 7: this division struggle to break over ninety two wins. But I,

741
00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:35,360
Speaker 7: like I said, I won't bat and eye if they do.

742
00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 3: White socks, White Sox go, white sock. Let's go go go.

743
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:51,160
Speaker 3: What sock were with you? You're always and they're your best.

744
00:33:51,520 --> 00:33:55,320
Speaker 3: We're glad you ahead. Well we're gone.

745
00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:56,960
Speaker 7: Grope.

746
00:33:57,760 --> 00:33:59,720
Speaker 3: It sucks dogs.

747
00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 7: The one bet that I have locked in is the

748
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:06,960
Speaker 7: Tigers under sixty eight and a half wins. You could

749
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:09,240
Speaker 7: bet that full wing lower to sixty seven and a half.

750
00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:11,839
Speaker 7: They played at a sixty four win pace last year.

751
00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:14,560
Speaker 7: They hired aj Hinch, but this is still not an

752
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:19,560
Speaker 7: analytically inclined organization. Alavila is from the old old era

753
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 7: of baseball analysis. They're trying to get more resources to

754
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:26,319
Speaker 7: be more data inclined, but that doesn't happen overnight. You know,

755
00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:29,760
Speaker 7: there's still years behind other teams in terms of analytics

756
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:31,399
Speaker 7: and how they're applying it on the field. Hench will

757
00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:33,120
Speaker 7: help bridge that gap, but it's not going to happen

758
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:36,000
Speaker 7: right away. So yes, there's a projection as high as

759
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:38,200
Speaker 7: seventy two point four from Fangrafts on the Tigers.

760
00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:39,239
Speaker 3: I still like.

761
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:41,160
Speaker 7: Them to go under. Like I said, I'd bet that

762
00:34:41,200 --> 00:34:42,400
Speaker 7: down is sixty five and a half.

763
00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:44,920
Speaker 6: I think it's worth mentioning though, Like the bollstring the

764
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:47,279
Speaker 6: bullpens for the Twins and the White Sox was good.

765
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:49,400
Speaker 6: Like Alice colomego into the Twins, I thought was a

766
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:51,359
Speaker 6: really good ad to help Taylor Rodgers. Who knows who

767
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:54,440
Speaker 6: pitches eight the ninth inning. Liam Hendrick's really good addition

768
00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 6: to Chicago.

769
00:34:55,200 --> 00:34:56,279
Speaker 3: But I think that.

770
00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:59,239
Speaker 6: Tony LaRusso relationship with some of these guys that we

771
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:02,879
Speaker 6: know how have personalities like Carlos Rodon. What is gonna

772
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:06,600
Speaker 6: happen when Eloy Jimenez, who probably has the worst defense

773
00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:09,400
Speaker 6: of any outfielder that I've seen since It's worse than

774
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:12,640
Speaker 6: Lance Berkman. I can't think of a defender that's been

775
00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 6: this bad, even forty year olds that have been in

776
00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 6: the outfield before. What is Larusa gonna do when Eloy

777
00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:20,200
Speaker 6: Jimenez is out there throwing himself on the ground while

778
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:22,359
Speaker 6: the balls is rolling around in the warning track, and

779
00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 6: I hope that he doesn't bury rookies, guys that are

780
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:27,439
Speaker 6: exciting like Nick Madrigal. I would like to see Tony

781
00:35:27,520 --> 00:35:30,160
Speaker 6: LaRussa work well with this roster. It's an exciting roster,

782
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:33,759
Speaker 6: interesting personality, some good young talent boy. I don't know

783
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:36,000
Speaker 6: if this is a good fit whatsoever. Hopefully everybody likes

784
00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:38,320
Speaker 6: to have a drink after the game, you know, Jose Ofbreo.

785
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 7: People thought this guy was older than he came over

786
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:44,640
Speaker 7: listed as coming from Cubathers always questions about ages of

787
00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:47,480
Speaker 7: people coming from countries where the birth certificate, you know,

788
00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:49,759
Speaker 7: issue might not be as clear. But a bray who

789
00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 7: found a way to improve himself unlock more of his

790
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:55,480
Speaker 7: power as he's aged and rightfully won an mvpi'd I

791
00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:58,400
Speaker 7: said Bieber should have been in that discussion. But this

792
00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:01,880
Speaker 7: White Sox team is completely and a braywo is better

793
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:02,799
Speaker 7: than he ever has been.

794
00:36:03,200 --> 00:36:06,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, the White Sox, I mean, their lineup is obviously awesome.

795
00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:10,120
Speaker 4: I now with you know the addition of Liam Hendrix.

796
00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:13,120
Speaker 4: I like, I like their bullpen. They have some promising

797
00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:16,319
Speaker 4: arms there behind Hendricks as well, and then they add

798
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:18,640
Speaker 4: Lance Linn to go along with Giulito and Kykeel.

799
00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:21,520
Speaker 3: I think that to you know, the difference.

800
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:23,960
Speaker 4: Between them going over the wind total or below might

801
00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:26,919
Speaker 4: come down to can someone step up in that four

802
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:29,560
Speaker 4: or five starter range. I mean they've had they have

803
00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:31,680
Speaker 4: a lot of questions there that I can't wait to

804
00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:34,160
Speaker 4: fade that gas. Can Dylan cease again? But you know

805
00:36:34,239 --> 00:36:36,640
Speaker 4: Ronaldo Lopez, they brought in Rodin back, like can one

806
00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:39,279
Speaker 4: of them step up? And then that'll make the White

807
00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:42,160
Speaker 4: Sox even more dangerous. I'll ask you to close up

808
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 4: on this division anskar one question. You know, I I

809
00:36:44,719 --> 00:36:47,719
Speaker 4: don't hate what you're saying about the Indians. Their bullpens

810
00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:49,879
Speaker 4: still kind of I mean maryor Chuck is Karen Check

811
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:52,520
Speaker 4: is electric, but you know, some of their other bullpen

812
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:55,640
Speaker 4: pieces do scare me a bit. But given their track

813
00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:58,720
Speaker 4: record on pitching, they do have some pieces in the lineup.

814
00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:01,600
Speaker 4: And then look, if they're hanging around, are they going

815
00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:03,480
Speaker 4: to go out and maybe sign a guy or two

816
00:37:03,520 --> 00:37:05,319
Speaker 4: at the trade deadline? If they're in it, I mean,

817
00:37:05,320 --> 00:37:09,080
Speaker 4: their payroll is minuscule. I don't know, is there any

818
00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:12,759
Speaker 4: value or would you suggest potentially someone going out there

819
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:16,680
Speaker 4: and taking a shot an upside shot on Cleveland.

820
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:18,480
Speaker 3: I mean, there's value on this roster.

821
00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:22,239
Speaker 7: They said that they're not tradingho'se Aramiras, so that's a

822
00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:25,399
Speaker 7: positive sign. I'm ed Rosario still has upside that hasn't

823
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:28,080
Speaker 7: been unlocked. Whether it ever comes to fruition remains to

824
00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:30,960
Speaker 7: be seen. Andrew Simenez was already a better player than

825
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:32,960
Speaker 7: Rosario when he was with the Bets, so I think

826
00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:36,239
Speaker 7: they did a pretty decent job getting a good haul

827
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:37,080
Speaker 7: for Lindor.

828
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:39,120
Speaker 3: I love that Eddie Rosario signing.

829
00:37:39,760 --> 00:37:43,040
Speaker 7: You know, I know the Twins have Alex Carrillov who's

830
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:45,040
Speaker 7: ready to step right into that role. But I think

831
00:37:45,120 --> 00:37:47,600
Speaker 7: Rosario's as reliable as they come at a corner spot.

832
00:37:47,680 --> 00:37:50,480
Speaker 7: So yeah, I mean there's upside on this team. It's

833
00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:52,439
Speaker 7: just they don't really ever spend and they don't really

834
00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:54,799
Speaker 7: ever add to their roster. They just kind of they

835
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:57,040
Speaker 7: fill holes and they play with what they have. But

836
00:37:57,640 --> 00:38:00,080
Speaker 7: you know, if if I'm looking for an upside, I

837
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:03,160
Speaker 7: bet with Cleveland probably going to be a similar one

838
00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:06,600
Speaker 7: to what I play is last year, which is Framuiel rayes.

839
00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:07,520
Speaker 3: To be the home run King at the end of

840
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:07,839
Speaker 3: the year.

841
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:10,920
Speaker 7: His power metrics are off the charts, and it really

842
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:12,759
Speaker 7: just comes down to whether he can get a full

843
00:38:12,800 --> 00:38:15,800
Speaker 7: season of at bats into DH role. But I really

844
00:38:15,840 --> 00:38:18,240
Speaker 7: don't hate this Cleveland roster the more I look at it,

845
00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:20,680
Speaker 7: and they're gonna be hard pressed not to finish with

846
00:38:20,719 --> 00:38:21,800
Speaker 7: another five hundred record.

847
00:38:22,640 --> 00:38:23,440
Speaker 3: The FRA Animal All.

848
00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:27,680
Speaker 4: Right, let's move on to the final division in our

849
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:29,279
Speaker 4: American League betting preview, and that.

850
00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:30,440
Speaker 3: Is the AL West.

851
00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:36,600
Speaker 4: Last year, the Oakland A's ran away with the division.

852
00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:40,280
Speaker 4: The Astros made the playoffs by finishing under five hundred,

853
00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:43,840
Speaker 4: and Seattle actually finished in third place twenty seven to

854
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:46,719
Speaker 4: thirty one. Then you have the Angels and the Rangers.

855
00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:48,120
Speaker 4: I'll let you take it away. I know you have

856
00:38:48,160 --> 00:38:49,440
Speaker 4: a lot of love for the Astros to let you

857
00:38:49,440 --> 00:38:54,920
Speaker 4: get there. The A's, I like this, You're close. And

858
00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:57,880
Speaker 4: then they did They did nothing in the off season,

859
00:38:58,080 --> 00:38:59,600
Speaker 4: which shouldn't be that surprise of the days. But I

860
00:38:59,600 --> 00:39:01,520
Speaker 4: thought that they are going to do something. I mean,

861
00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:05,319
Speaker 4: what do they They traded Chris Davis for Andrews, they

862
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:08,680
Speaker 4: lost Hendricks, and I was disappointed at the A's didn't

863
00:39:08,680 --> 00:39:11,120
Speaker 4: do much. WHI shouldn't be surprising. It's the A's, you know,

864
00:39:11,160 --> 00:39:13,640
Speaker 4: the Angels. Maybe they're you're gonna see you're gonna find

865
00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:16,399
Speaker 4: people that are going to hide the Angels because of

866
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:19,000
Speaker 4: Mike Trout and some of the potential on their offense.

867
00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:21,719
Speaker 4: But who's who's pitching for them. I mean, they went

868
00:39:21,719 --> 00:39:23,799
Speaker 4: out and got Alex Cobb. That's that's gonna be the

869
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:27,480
Speaker 4: solution to their pitching problems. So there's a lot of

870
00:39:27,560 --> 00:39:30,279
Speaker 4: questions on some of these teams in the division. Zuell,

871
00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:32,799
Speaker 4: I'll throw to you first because I'm I'm pretty sure

872
00:39:32,840 --> 00:39:34,920
Speaker 4: you're gonna tell me about the Astros.

873
00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:35,399
Speaker 3: Yeah.

874
00:39:35,600 --> 00:39:37,719
Speaker 7: I'll actually start with the A's though, because this podcast

875
00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:40,160
Speaker 7: was all over the A's, all about the A's love

876
00:39:40,239 --> 00:39:42,360
Speaker 7: last year, we told you to skip the Astros. We

877
00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:44,640
Speaker 7: gave about the A's at plus three fifty plus three

878
00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:45,800
Speaker 7: eighty plus four hundred.

879
00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:47,040
Speaker 3: It all cashed.

880
00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:49,920
Speaker 7: You know that that was an absolute coupe and it

881
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:52,560
Speaker 7: was almost never in doubt. They ran away with the division.

882
00:39:53,239 --> 00:39:56,000
Speaker 7: They seem to just have a magic hitting Grand Slams

883
00:39:56,040 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 7: like every other night, sometimes to it at night.

884
00:39:58,160 --> 00:40:01,080
Speaker 3: So that was an unbelievably on journey. But it's over.

885
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:04,080
Speaker 3: We're done with it. They signed Trevor roseen Ball, they

886
00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:04,960
Speaker 3: signed Mitch Marlin.

887
00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:06,960
Speaker 7: They're starting to play around a little bit in the

888
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:09,000
Speaker 7: bottom of the free agent market. So I think of

889
00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:10,879
Speaker 7: your patient. If you want to feed this A's team,

890
00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:13,680
Speaker 7: I'd wait. I think you might get a number closer

891
00:40:13,719 --> 00:40:15,520
Speaker 7: to You can already get eighty eight and a half.

892
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:17,440
Speaker 7: You might get eighty nine. You might get eighty nine

893
00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:21,160
Speaker 7: and a half by opening day. What's interesting with this

894
00:40:21,200 --> 00:40:25,080
Speaker 7: team the futures market. Before the wind totals came out,

895
00:40:25,239 --> 00:40:28,160
Speaker 7: the A's were the division favorite plus one twenty plus

896
00:40:28,160 --> 00:40:30,480
Speaker 7: one forty ish, the Astros behind them.

897
00:40:30,480 --> 00:40:32,600
Speaker 3: Plus one sixty plus one seventy ish.

898
00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:35,720
Speaker 7: Then the wind totals came out and every win total

899
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:37,600
Speaker 7: had the A's winning more games or sorry, I had

900
00:40:37,640 --> 00:40:40,319
Speaker 7: the Astros winning more gans than the A's and yet

901
00:40:40,320 --> 00:40:41,920
Speaker 7: the books didn't move the divisional lines.

902
00:40:41,960 --> 00:40:43,680
Speaker 3: Well that's pretty odd.

903
00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 7: So I got divisional money down immediately on the Astros.

904
00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:50,400
Speaker 7: You can still get plus one sixty at DraftKings. Here's

905
00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:52,960
Speaker 7: the kicker. I have them at sixty two percent to

906
00:40:53,000 --> 00:40:55,759
Speaker 7: win the division minus one sixty one.

907
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:58,640
Speaker 3: That's more than a twenty percent edge. I'm the low

908
00:40:58,719 --> 00:40:59,799
Speaker 3: man on the Astros.

909
00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:03,960
Speaker 7: Pakoda and Fangrafts have this team at seventy percent to

910
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:06,839
Speaker 7: win their division. That's a thirty percent edge on their

911
00:41:06,840 --> 00:41:09,319
Speaker 7: divisional odds. I don't know if I've ever seen a

912
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:13,359
Speaker 7: divisional bet with more value. Their pitching is loaded. They

913
00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:17,279
Speaker 7: have so much young pitching that is good. Jose air

914
00:41:17,400 --> 00:41:20,360
Speaker 7: Quiddi and Franbur Valdez are two of the biggest starting

915
00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:23,359
Speaker 7: pitcher sleepers for Fantasy Baseball this year. Valdez turned into

916
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:26,080
Speaker 7: an ace last year. If you want to know why,

917
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:30,280
Speaker 7: the Astros, who finished twenty nine and thirty one still

918
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:32,920
Speaker 7: made it within a game of making the World Series.

919
00:41:33,560 --> 00:41:35,440
Speaker 3: It was because of all their good young.

920
00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:39,000
Speaker 7: Pitching and an evolution of Dusty Baker having a quick

921
00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:41,040
Speaker 7: hook and willing to get guys in and out of

922
00:41:41,080 --> 00:41:43,440
Speaker 7: the game. It was amazing to see. This isn't the

923
00:41:43,440 --> 00:41:45,759
Speaker 7: guy who got Mark Pryor injured. This isn't the guy

924
00:41:45,760 --> 00:41:49,279
Speaker 7: who ended carry Wood's career prematurely. He knows what he's doing.

925
00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:51,840
Speaker 7: He's listening to the analytics staff that they have in place.

926
00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:55,840
Speaker 7: So I'm all over the Astros this year. I have

927
00:41:55,920 --> 00:41:58,919
Speaker 7: them projected at eighty nine point one wins again, rest

928
00:41:58,920 --> 00:42:00,960
Speaker 7: of the projected market, eighty eighty eight point four or

929
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:04,320
Speaker 7: ninety two point seven is the highest at Pakoda. Again,

930
00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:08,560
Speaker 7: when Pokoda's over or under by four wins, that tends

931
00:42:08,600 --> 00:42:10,279
Speaker 7: to be a good sign. You can get them at

932
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:13,000
Speaker 7: eighty six and a half wins at Caesars and William Hill.

933
00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:15,560
Speaker 7: I'd probably bet that, even though it's less than a

934
00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:16,760
Speaker 7: two and a half win gap.

935
00:42:16,600 --> 00:42:17,560
Speaker 3: Compared to my projection.

936
00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:21,680
Speaker 7: But just hit their division odds, smash those, and then

937
00:42:21,719 --> 00:42:23,680
Speaker 7: on top of it their World Series odds. I have

938
00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:26,400
Speaker 7: them projected at seventeen hundred again, Fangrass a little bit

939
00:42:26,440 --> 00:42:30,239
Speaker 7: higher than me. Thirteen fifty on their projection hit that

940
00:42:30,280 --> 00:42:34,520
Speaker 7: down in two thousand, twenty five hundred everywhere. I just

941
00:42:34,560 --> 00:42:36,680
Speaker 7: think this Ashers team is so much better than the

942
00:42:36,719 --> 00:42:37,800
Speaker 7: market's giving a credit for.

943
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:42,040
Speaker 3: And I put this in my article, but it just like.

944
00:42:42,040 --> 00:42:45,239
Speaker 7: Makes me fucking giddy to think about this, because they

945
00:42:45,239 --> 00:42:49,200
Speaker 7: don't have a true closer. Justin Verlander getting the last

946
00:42:49,239 --> 00:42:52,880
Speaker 7: three outs of every game in the postseason. Just imagine

947
00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:56,839
Speaker 7: that coming back from Tommy john surgery. I mean, that's

948
00:42:56,840 --> 00:43:01,080
Speaker 7: electricity right there. So that's that's a bonus. They need

949
00:43:01,120 --> 00:43:03,320
Speaker 7: to get there first. But I don't think this division

950
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:06,560
Speaker 7: is particularly strong. I'm gonna neag on the Angels real quick.

951
00:43:06,600 --> 00:43:08,840
Speaker 7: I think the Angels are the most overrated team in baseball.

952
00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:11,479
Speaker 7: Maybe I'll be wrong. You can get them under eighty

953
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:14,520
Speaker 7: five wins at the win They played at a sixty

954
00:43:14,640 --> 00:43:19,480
Speaker 7: nine win pace last year. Their defense finished with minus

955
00:43:19,480 --> 00:43:22,880
Speaker 7: twenty four defensive runs saved. Mike Trout I believe was

956
00:43:22,920 --> 00:43:26,600
Speaker 7: minus ten in center field up then, is terrible. They

957
00:43:26,640 --> 00:43:29,479
Speaker 7: added Dexter Fowler, who was minus two in right field

958
00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:30,600
Speaker 7: last year in a short season.

959
00:43:30,680 --> 00:43:31,720
Speaker 3: Simmons is gone.

960
00:43:32,080 --> 00:43:35,440
Speaker 7: Simmons is gone, who they were replaced with Jose Iglesias,

961
00:43:35,480 --> 00:43:40,279
Speaker 7: who is minus in defense last year this Angels organization

962
00:43:40,520 --> 00:43:42,839
Speaker 7: has had. They're kind of like the Knicks. They keep

963
00:43:42,920 --> 00:43:45,160
Speaker 7: finding guys who are like one or two years past

964
00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:49,240
Speaker 7: their prime and signing them and then getting like negative value,

965
00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:53,240
Speaker 7: negative ev value on them for the twilight of their career.

966
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:57,040
Speaker 5: He's like ten years passes. Let not Nicks. That's ten

967
00:43:57,120 --> 00:43:58,080
Speaker 5: years past his prime.

968
00:43:58,960 --> 00:44:00,640
Speaker 7: I mean, I guess he's still pick frames. Well, I

969
00:44:00,680 --> 00:44:04,080
Speaker 7: don't really know, but you know, it's their bullpens trash.

970
00:44:04,480 --> 00:44:07,680
Speaker 7: Like Otani's sitting ninety miles an hour throwing off of

971
00:44:07,719 --> 00:44:10,520
Speaker 7: the mountain spring. He's not gonna pitch. If he pitches, like,

972
00:44:11,520 --> 00:44:13,680
Speaker 7: is it gonna be more than eighty innings? One hundred innings?

973
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:16,120
Speaker 7: Never mind the fact that, by the way, they have

974
00:44:16,200 --> 00:44:19,440
Speaker 7: this shitty defensive outfield that they keep signing fly ball pitchers.

975
00:44:19,719 --> 00:44:20,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know.

976
00:44:20,440 --> 00:44:23,640
Speaker 5: What they're doing, Jose Katana.

977
00:44:23,800 --> 00:44:26,880
Speaker 7: Yeah, it's some of the most insane like team building

978
00:44:26,880 --> 00:44:29,360
Speaker 7: I've ever seen. I know, they just changed general managers

979
00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:32,359
Speaker 7: this offseason, and like, I'm willing to be completely wrong

980
00:44:32,440 --> 00:44:32,879
Speaker 7: on this team.

981
00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:34,280
Speaker 3: I am.

982
00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:37,040
Speaker 7: The highest projection on them is Pecota at eighty six

983
00:44:37,080 --> 00:44:41,000
Speaker 7: point four I think that's their ceiling, Like you're you're

984
00:44:41,080 --> 00:44:43,399
Speaker 7: buying their ceiling. If you're betting an under, you're you're

985
00:44:43,440 --> 00:44:45,600
Speaker 7: betting their You're betting the under on their ceiling.

986
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:47,600
Speaker 3: It might creep over by a win or two. But

987
00:44:47,640 --> 00:44:50,279
Speaker 3: this team isn't winning ninety games the Rangers.

988
00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:53,640
Speaker 7: Like, maybe the Rangers sneak over their win total because

989
00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:56,720
Speaker 7: the Angels are so bad and the A's like faill

990
00:44:56,760 --> 00:44:59,040
Speaker 7: to achieve what they have in the past few years.

991
00:44:59,040 --> 00:45:00,640
Speaker 3: But that's why I'm a little.

992
00:45:00,440 --> 00:45:02,600
Speaker 7: Bit hesitant about betting the A's under, just because the

993
00:45:02,640 --> 00:45:05,680
Speaker 7: market seems to keep missing their projection and on the

994
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:07,800
Speaker 7: other end, they seem to keep missing the Angels projection.

995
00:45:07,840 --> 00:45:09,440
Speaker 7: They seem to be high the Angels and long on

996
00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:11,239
Speaker 7: the A's and every year it seems like it's going

997
00:45:11,239 --> 00:45:14,359
Speaker 7: to other direction. Yeah, it's like the the Mike Trout bump.

998
00:45:14,400 --> 00:45:17,000
Speaker 4: I mean, this isn't this isn't basketball, right, Like he

999
00:45:17,040 --> 00:45:19,600
Speaker 4: can only have so much of an impact that at

1000
00:45:19,600 --> 00:45:22,279
Speaker 4: the plate. Yeah, the Angels are a mess. Did you

1001
00:45:22,400 --> 00:45:23,600
Speaker 4: come before I get your thoughts?

1002
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:26,640
Speaker 3: Reroll? Did you learn anything last.

1003
00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:30,520
Speaker 4: Year about the Astros after the cheating scandal? Like, obviously

1004
00:45:30,560 --> 00:45:33,320
Speaker 4: it's a small sample size of games in a shortened season.

1005
00:45:33,520 --> 00:45:36,520
Speaker 4: But we saw Bregman's numbers decline. We saw all two

1006
00:45:36,600 --> 00:45:39,880
Speaker 4: ba's numbers declimb. Is it just randomness? Is there something

1007
00:45:39,880 --> 00:45:42,480
Speaker 4: there to it? Is that going to be a problem

1008
00:45:42,520 --> 00:45:44,040
Speaker 4: going forward? Any thoughts there?

1009
00:45:44,480 --> 00:45:47,080
Speaker 7: I'm going to make an analogy to another sport that

1010
00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:50,960
Speaker 7: I cover, which is UFC. The small sample that we

1011
00:45:51,040 --> 00:45:57,040
Speaker 7: got of the Astros offensive players not hitting right after

1012
00:45:57,080 --> 00:45:59,120
Speaker 7: there was the narrative that they would not hit because

1013
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:02,839
Speaker 7: they were cheating. Is like telling me that a guy

1014
00:46:02,840 --> 00:46:06,120
Speaker 7: who has a bad schin seeing him get knocked out

1015
00:46:06,120 --> 00:46:07,880
Speaker 7: the first round and saying, yeah, well it's because he

1016
00:46:07,920 --> 00:46:10,279
Speaker 7: is a bat shit, and then his next wife he

1017
00:46:10,320 --> 00:46:15,560
Speaker 7: survives for five rounds. You know, it's it's novation buys,

1018
00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:19,880
Speaker 7: it's complete confirmation bys and then so you're gonna sure

1019
00:46:19,920 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 7: they didn't hit in the regular season. So when al

1020
00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:25,120
Speaker 7: Tuve and Korea absolutely went off and hit four hundred

1021
00:46:25,160 --> 00:46:27,759
Speaker 7: in the playoffs together, just to go back to the

1022
00:46:27,800 --> 00:46:32,160
Speaker 7: Central real quick, seven Central teams occupied sixteen playoff spots

1023
00:46:32,239 --> 00:46:35,400
Speaker 7: last year. Those teams didn't advance over seven in the

1024
00:46:35,400 --> 00:46:37,680
Speaker 7: first round. They went two to fourteen in those games.

1025
00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:41,400
Speaker 7: So the Central divisions were absolute trash last year, and

1026
00:46:41,440 --> 00:46:43,520
Speaker 7: because of that, more of them got to the playoffs.

1027
00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:45,839
Speaker 7: I think you're going to see a redistribution of wins

1028
00:46:45,880 --> 00:46:49,040
Speaker 7: throughout this league. I think the central divisions combined are

1029
00:46:49,320 --> 00:46:51,920
Speaker 7: are on the lower rung of the six divisions.

1030
00:46:52,239 --> 00:46:54,960
Speaker 4: The Reds still haven't scored a run by the way.

1031
00:46:55,480 --> 00:46:58,759
Speaker 4: That game is going to haunt me forever. Good stuff there.

1032
00:46:58,800 --> 00:46:59,920
Speaker 4: Colm thoughts on the Als.

1033
00:47:00,600 --> 00:47:02,360
Speaker 6: I think I think that scares me about the Angels

1034
00:47:02,400 --> 00:47:04,520
Speaker 6: is if they ever used analytics. They have the purse

1035
00:47:04,640 --> 00:47:06,960
Speaker 6: to buy whatever they want, and they've never figured out

1036
00:47:06,960 --> 00:47:07,880
Speaker 6: how to get the pitching in.

1037
00:47:07,960 --> 00:47:10,720
Speaker 5: They've never figured out you know, the Dylan Bundy.

1038
00:47:10,880 --> 00:47:14,080
Speaker 6: Signing we liked against teams that are you know, fly

1039
00:47:14,200 --> 00:47:16,960
Speaker 6: ball teams and him pitching in a bigger park. Those

1040
00:47:17,000 --> 00:47:20,120
Speaker 6: were just times to bet him individually. That didn't mean

1041
00:47:20,120 --> 00:47:22,080
Speaker 6: that we need to take a future out on the Angels.

1042
00:47:23,200 --> 00:47:24,920
Speaker 6: And so that's what scares me with them, is if

1043
00:47:24,960 --> 00:47:27,640
Speaker 6: they just ever seem to figure it out analytically. They

1044
00:47:27,680 --> 00:47:29,480
Speaker 6: have the money to go out and get whoever they want.

1045
00:47:29,560 --> 00:47:31,719
Speaker 6: They've needed a starting pitcher for years, but for some

1046
00:47:31,760 --> 00:47:35,320
Speaker 6: reason they keep adding bats so that I've never wanted

1047
00:47:35,320 --> 00:47:37,120
Speaker 6: to fade the Angels because I'm afraid they're going to

1048
00:47:37,160 --> 00:47:39,399
Speaker 6: figure it out, but they never seem to. As far

1049
00:47:39,480 --> 00:47:43,120
Speaker 6: as the Astros go, I'm right in step with Zarilla

1050
00:47:43,200 --> 00:47:45,600
Speaker 6: on all of this because you know, not only is

1051
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:48,840
Speaker 6: their entire lineup at the major league level, top to bottom,

1052
00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:51,920
Speaker 6: one of the best, they remind me of the Dodgers,

1053
00:47:51,920 --> 00:47:53,839
Speaker 6: which we'll get to next time, which is the reason

1054
00:47:53,880 --> 00:47:56,120
Speaker 6: why I have problems fading the Dodgers. In their wind total,

1055
00:47:56,160 --> 00:48:00,520
Speaker 6: it's astronomically high, but they're loaded in what they have

1056
00:48:00,680 --> 00:48:03,040
Speaker 6: as far as a second string and a third string

1057
00:48:03,080 --> 00:48:05,680
Speaker 6: in football terms, like they just have so much depth

1058
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:09,000
Speaker 6: to replace anybody at any level. It's like the guy

1059
00:48:09,120 --> 00:48:11,440
Speaker 6: I live in tuls Oklahoma. That's where the double A

1060
00:48:11,560 --> 00:48:14,680
Speaker 6: team is for the Dodgers, and it's loaded with pitching

1061
00:48:14,680 --> 00:48:16,520
Speaker 6: that could get called any day to go out to

1062
00:48:16,560 --> 00:48:19,120
Speaker 6: Chavez Ravine and throw something. You know, Ross, I think

1063
00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:22,120
Speaker 6: Stripling was here all the time, right, so Walker Bueller

1064
00:48:22,200 --> 00:48:23,840
Speaker 6: was here for a long time. It's just that the

1065
00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:25,920
Speaker 6: Dodgers are loaded from top to bottom, and even in

1066
00:48:25,920 --> 00:48:28,239
Speaker 6: their minor league system, so are the Astros. And if

1067
00:48:28,280 --> 00:48:30,680
Speaker 6: you look at these names like Luis Garcia, Brian Abray,

1068
00:48:30,719 --> 00:48:33,239
Speaker 6: you Forrest Whitley. They have pitchers that are just not

1069
00:48:33,280 --> 00:48:35,480
Speaker 6: available to come up and help out, like if you're

1070
00:48:35,520 --> 00:48:37,799
Speaker 6: Quitty or some of the other guys get injured. Those

1071
00:48:37,840 --> 00:48:40,040
Speaker 6: are trade opportunities too when they're making a run for

1072
00:48:40,040 --> 00:48:43,200
Speaker 6: the World Series. So that's why I like Houston as well.

1073
00:48:43,320 --> 00:48:45,200
Speaker 6: I think one thing that we need to mention, I

1074
00:48:45,239 --> 00:48:46,440
Speaker 6: don't know which way we want to go of this.

1075
00:48:46,840 --> 00:48:49,239
Speaker 6: I think Sean covered it really well with Oakland, so

1076
00:48:49,280 --> 00:48:53,960
Speaker 6: I'll pivot off and say that there are prospects. Last year,

1077
00:48:54,040 --> 00:48:56,759
Speaker 6: if you guys follow my Twitter account, I had Kyle

1078
00:48:56,840 --> 00:48:58,600
Speaker 6: Lewis fifty to one to win Rookie of the Year,

1079
00:48:58,640 --> 00:49:01,920
Speaker 6: Ale Rookie of the Year. Seattle reminds me a lot

1080
00:49:01,960 --> 00:49:04,120
Speaker 6: of Detroit. This is a team I think that we

1081
00:49:04,200 --> 00:49:07,920
Speaker 6: can buy in two years to actually do some real damage.

1082
00:49:08,640 --> 00:49:11,680
Speaker 6: The Mariners finally have direction. They actually have a decent

1083
00:49:11,719 --> 00:49:15,040
Speaker 6: GM that knows how to use analytics and work the farm.

1084
00:49:15,719 --> 00:49:19,080
Speaker 6: So Stucky and I, for years on Twitter would put

1085
00:49:19,080 --> 00:49:22,080
Speaker 6: out a Mariner's forty to one, thirty to one, and

1086
00:49:22,120 --> 00:49:23,920
Speaker 6: it would always blow up in our face. One week

1087
00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:26,120
Speaker 6: end of the season, We're going to start revisiting that

1088
00:49:26,160 --> 00:49:27,960
Speaker 6: in about two years, but they do have a good

1089
00:49:27,960 --> 00:49:30,759
Speaker 6: farm system. Once rookie the year odds come out, if

1090
00:49:30,800 --> 00:49:32,960
Speaker 6: I see this guy's name, we'll go ahead and put

1091
00:49:32,960 --> 00:49:35,719
Speaker 6: it out there. And then the Rangers. I think the

1092
00:49:35,800 --> 00:49:37,719
Speaker 6: Rangers are the worst team in baseball. I don't even

1093
00:49:37,760 --> 00:49:39,920
Speaker 6: think it's close. And for the roster that they have

1094
00:49:40,040 --> 00:49:43,640
Speaker 6: constructed in the ballpark, the unders are the name of

1095
00:49:43,680 --> 00:49:45,800
Speaker 6: the game when it's time to go play the Rangers

1096
00:49:45,840 --> 00:49:48,160
Speaker 6: down at their house. So I think there's some really

1097
00:49:48,200 --> 00:49:50,840
Speaker 6: interesting splits when the roof was open versus when the

1098
00:49:50,920 --> 00:49:53,960
Speaker 6: roof was closed. I'm kind of anteroting to see how

1099
00:49:54,040 --> 00:49:56,480
Speaker 6: that plays into April, May and June game since we

1100
00:49:56,520 --> 00:50:00,080
Speaker 6: started so late last season, such a small sample, but

1101
00:50:00,160 --> 00:50:02,040
Speaker 6: I think, you know, if Sean wasn't comment on, I

1102
00:50:02,080 --> 00:50:04,600
Speaker 6: think roster construction versus the new park that they have,

1103
00:50:04,840 --> 00:50:07,400
Speaker 6: versus management versus what they have in the farm system,

1104
00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:09,280
Speaker 6: I think the Rangers are the worst team in baseball.

1105
00:50:09,920 --> 00:50:12,640
Speaker 7: Yeah, I'm having a tough time with the Raiders. It's

1106
00:50:12,800 --> 00:50:17,640
Speaker 7: it's really I feel like they're the team that has

1107
00:50:17,760 --> 00:50:20,280
Speaker 7: been what the Orioles and the Tigers have been getting

1108
00:50:20,320 --> 00:50:22,560
Speaker 7: a little bit too much respect in the projection market

1109
00:50:22,600 --> 00:50:24,520
Speaker 7: relative to the win totals of the past few years,

1110
00:50:24,520 --> 00:50:27,880
Speaker 7: where the total comes out and every projection says them

1111
00:50:27,880 --> 00:50:31,200
Speaker 7: at the over and you're like, there's there's absolutely.

1112
00:50:30,520 --> 00:50:31,520
Speaker 3: No way I'm doing that.

1113
00:50:33,160 --> 00:50:36,680
Speaker 7: I mean, I'm at sixty seven point eight PA Coda

1114
00:50:36,760 --> 00:50:39,440
Speaker 7: is at sixty six point eight, So we're both in

1115
00:50:39,520 --> 00:50:41,759
Speaker 7: lockstep with their total, which is about sixty six and

1116
00:50:41,800 --> 00:50:44,799
Speaker 7: a half sixty seven. But Davenport's all the way up

1117
00:50:44,800 --> 00:50:47,480
Speaker 7: at seventy nine wins, Fangrass is up at seventy two

1118
00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:49,359
Speaker 7: and a half wins. Like, I don't really know how

1119
00:50:49,360 --> 00:50:52,480
Speaker 7: to reconcile those projections. I think it's just one of

1120
00:50:52,480 --> 00:50:56,040
Speaker 7: those things where you have to look at how teams

1121
00:50:56,040 --> 00:50:58,400
Speaker 7: are going to be motivated down the stretch and what

1122
00:50:58,440 --> 00:51:01,759
Speaker 7: they're going to be doing in July through September.

1123
00:51:02,239 --> 00:51:04,000
Speaker 3: And we know that the Mariners are going to be

1124
00:51:04,000 --> 00:51:04,760
Speaker 3: coming on strong.

1125
00:51:04,960 --> 00:51:08,120
Speaker 7: We know that they're bringing up Jared Kelnick probably in April,

1126
00:51:08,600 --> 00:51:10,280
Speaker 7: and they're going to be trying to get more competitive

1127
00:51:10,320 --> 00:51:14,040
Speaker 7: right away. We know this because their president went on

1128
00:51:14,080 --> 00:51:18,600
Speaker 7: the most insane off the cuff public interview of maybe

1129
00:51:18,640 --> 00:51:19,120
Speaker 7: all time.

1130
00:51:19,160 --> 00:51:19,520
Speaker 3: Today.

1131
00:51:19,840 --> 00:51:21,440
Speaker 7: If you haven't had a chance to check that out

1132
00:51:21,480 --> 00:51:24,600
Speaker 7: please do. It's a beautiful insight into how most of

1133
00:51:24,640 --> 00:51:27,360
Speaker 7: these high level executives in baseball think, but the things.

1134
00:51:27,120 --> 00:51:28,280
Speaker 3: That they won't actually say.

1135
00:51:30,160 --> 00:51:33,680
Speaker 7: But you know, I think a team like the Rangers,

1136
00:51:33,920 --> 00:51:35,600
Speaker 7: they're just going to be tanking and looking for that

1137
00:51:35,719 --> 00:51:37,719
Speaker 7: first pick by the end of the year. Joey Gallo

1138
00:51:37,800 --> 00:51:40,000
Speaker 7: hasn't been able to stay healthy. If he ever does,

1139
00:51:40,080 --> 00:51:43,160
Speaker 7: he's an MVP candidate because Stucky.

1140
00:51:43,160 --> 00:51:44,080
Speaker 3: This may shock you.

1141
00:51:44,000 --> 00:51:46,480
Speaker 7: Like it does with Hunter Renfro, but Joey Gallo is

1142
00:51:46,520 --> 00:51:49,440
Speaker 7: an above average defensive center field here. I don't know

1143
00:51:49,440 --> 00:51:52,600
Speaker 7: how that's possible at his size, the guys like six five,

1144
00:51:52,640 --> 00:51:55,040
Speaker 7: two thirty five, and the fact that he can cover

1145
00:51:55,120 --> 00:51:58,560
Speaker 7: that much range in centerfield is just an absolute mystery.

1146
00:51:58,600 --> 00:52:02,000
Speaker 7: I guess like Bellinger does. But yeah, I really don't

1147
00:52:02,040 --> 00:52:05,040
Speaker 7: see much much upside on this Raiders team. And frankly,

1148
00:52:05,040 --> 00:52:09,200
Speaker 7: they're pitching is not really much fun to play around with,

1149
00:52:09,280 --> 00:52:10,920
Speaker 7: even though we're gonna be hitting some unders.

1150
00:52:11,800 --> 00:52:13,960
Speaker 4: What what the interesting thing to look at that I

1151
00:52:14,200 --> 00:52:16,479
Speaker 4: haven't spent time because I'm just looking at it right now,

1152
00:52:17,080 --> 00:52:21,560
Speaker 4: is do the Mariners have just nothing but lefty starters?

1153
00:52:21,560 --> 00:52:21,759
Speaker 6: Now?

1154
00:52:22,960 --> 00:52:25,160
Speaker 4: So how does that project against I gotta the Raiders

1155
00:52:25,160 --> 00:52:27,840
Speaker 4: couldn't hit lefties last year. I wonder how that projects

1156
00:52:27,880 --> 00:52:30,040
Speaker 4: against the rest of the vision or they're obviously going

1157
00:52:30,080 --> 00:52:30,840
Speaker 4: to face more oft than that.

1158
00:52:30,920 --> 00:52:33,840
Speaker 3: But are they do they have a projected all lefty starters.

1159
00:52:34,680 --> 00:52:38,600
Speaker 6: Well, they have Chris Flexen free agent from KB, so

1160
00:52:39,239 --> 00:52:40,719
Speaker 6: I mean there's a rity for you. I don't know

1161
00:52:40,719 --> 00:52:42,640
Speaker 6: if they're going to a six man rotation with Justin

1162
00:52:42,719 --> 00:52:46,680
Speaker 6: Gunn he's alrighty also, but yeah, so if for those

1163
00:52:46,719 --> 00:52:48,960
Speaker 6: of you that didn't hear, you know, killm It coming up,

1164
00:52:49,000 --> 00:52:50,960
Speaker 6: that could That's the guy that I think is the

1165
00:52:50,960 --> 00:52:53,239
Speaker 6: next big thing. So if you're gonna nerd out and

1166
00:52:53,239 --> 00:52:55,440
Speaker 6: do win totals, you know, like Zillo and I do.

1167
00:52:55,560 --> 00:52:57,799
Speaker 6: Sometimes it's you know, you got to look at Davenport

1168
00:52:57,840 --> 00:52:59,919
Speaker 6: with a with a projection that they have on the Ranger.

1169
00:53:00,600 --> 00:53:03,319
Speaker 6: He's ignoring numbers that happened in twenty twenty. And if

1170
00:53:03,360 --> 00:53:05,200
Speaker 6: you look at war pathag like, if you want to

1171
00:53:05,200 --> 00:53:06,960
Speaker 6: get that nerdy, they have the Rangers all the way

1172
00:53:06,960 --> 00:53:09,200
Speaker 6: down to sixty four and a half. So you know,

1173
00:53:09,400 --> 00:53:11,400
Speaker 6: it's all over the map with this Rangers team. And

1174
00:53:11,880 --> 00:53:13,279
Speaker 6: I think the one thing that we can bet on

1175
00:53:13,360 --> 00:53:15,280
Speaker 6: is that they're probably going to be one of the worst.

1176
00:53:16,040 --> 00:53:18,359
Speaker 6: You may not have to sweat an underticket, but an

1177
00:53:18,400 --> 00:53:22,600
Speaker 6: individual games, I think it's really worth noting that there's

1178
00:53:22,600 --> 00:53:24,480
Speaker 6: not going to be a lot of offense in that park.

1179
00:53:26,040 --> 00:53:28,160
Speaker 7: I think the A's are a team that you're going

1180
00:53:28,239 --> 00:53:30,480
Speaker 7: to be betting a lot against the Meritors. The A's

1181
00:53:30,840 --> 00:53:33,360
Speaker 7: for the past two years have been extremely right handed

1182
00:53:33,400 --> 00:53:35,440
Speaker 7: in their offense. Matt Olson is also one of the

1183
00:53:35,480 --> 00:53:39,400
Speaker 7: best left young lefty bats in baseball, So the A's

1184
00:53:39,520 --> 00:53:42,640
Speaker 7: going against that Mariner's staff is a pretty bad matchup

1185
00:53:42,640 --> 00:53:45,319
Speaker 7: for the Mariners almost every time, just because the amount

1186
00:53:45,360 --> 00:53:47,840
Speaker 7: of right handed bats in that lineup. Also, Matt Chapman

1187
00:53:47,920 --> 00:53:51,239
Speaker 7: faced amongst the hardest pitching in baseball last year and

1188
00:53:51,239 --> 00:53:54,000
Speaker 7: still put up really good numbers. I couldn't be higher

1189
00:53:54,000 --> 00:53:56,799
Speaker 7: on Chapman as a player. I mean, I know I've

1190
00:53:56,840 --> 00:53:59,400
Speaker 7: said that in the past, but there's actually data that

1191
00:53:59,480 --> 00:54:01,480
Speaker 7: indicates you should have been even better last year than

1192
00:54:01,520 --> 00:54:01,799
Speaker 7: he was.

1193
00:54:02,520 --> 00:54:04,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I could see that with the I mean,

1194
00:54:04,840 --> 00:54:07,480
Speaker 4: betting the A's against lefties is like if it's been

1195
00:54:07,520 --> 00:54:09,520
Speaker 4: free money over the past couple of years. Think on

1196
00:54:09,560 --> 00:54:11,279
Speaker 4: the other side of that, we might get value on

1197
00:54:11,320 --> 00:54:14,640
Speaker 4: the Manners against the Rangers at times. But let's let's

1198
00:54:14,640 --> 00:54:18,319
Speaker 4: wrap it up here before we bring in a new

1199
00:54:18,360 --> 00:54:21,720
Speaker 4: friend and a new employee for a new segment here.

1200
00:54:22,200 --> 00:54:23,520
Speaker 4: But I want to just wrap it up with your

1201
00:54:23,520 --> 00:54:27,000
Speaker 4: favorite bets, overall thoughts. We're gonna have an NL episode

1202
00:54:27,040 --> 00:54:29,279
Speaker 4: later in the week. Like I said, I haven't actually

1203
00:54:29,680 --> 00:54:32,680
Speaker 4: invested in anything yet. I will share any ale futures.

1204
00:54:32,680 --> 00:54:35,920
Speaker 4: I had the next episode right after we get the recording,

1205
00:54:35,920 --> 00:54:38,000
Speaker 4: that's going to go bet the Astros. I think that

1206
00:54:38,120 --> 00:54:40,480
Speaker 4: just in that to win the division. I think that

1207
00:54:40,520 --> 00:54:43,120
Speaker 4: in the market you have like a trout bump that

1208
00:54:43,200 --> 00:54:46,440
Speaker 4: overinflates the angels you have. I think people think the

1209
00:54:46,480 --> 00:54:50,439
Speaker 4: A's are a little better than they are after last year. Look,

1210
00:54:50,480 --> 00:54:52,680
Speaker 4: we love the A's, but they have how many miracle

1211
00:54:52,680 --> 00:54:55,279
Speaker 4: comebacks can you have any in one season? And then

1212
00:54:55,800 --> 00:54:58,920
Speaker 4: I think that there's like an Astro's hate factor right

1213
00:54:58,960 --> 00:55:01,680
Speaker 4: that people don't like the Astrozone wants to bet the Astros.

1214
00:55:02,040 --> 00:55:04,440
Speaker 4: That I think is maybe creating some of that value

1215
00:55:04,480 --> 00:55:07,239
Speaker 4: in the division. So I'm betting that one's real. You

1216
00:55:07,239 --> 00:55:10,160
Speaker 4: want to wrap up just your overall thoughts, favorite bets,

1217
00:55:10,239 --> 00:55:11,960
Speaker 4: anything you want to go, Yeah, I.

1218
00:55:11,880 --> 00:55:15,200
Speaker 7: Mean, I think that Astro's divisional bet is tremendous value. Obviously,

1219
00:55:15,200 --> 00:55:16,800
Speaker 7: with the World Series bet, they're going to have to

1220
00:55:16,840 --> 00:55:20,120
Speaker 7: get by probably the Yankees and or White Sox and

1221
00:55:20,280 --> 00:55:23,080
Speaker 7: or Dodgers at some point, or Padres. So that's that's

1222
00:55:23,080 --> 00:55:25,799
Speaker 7: a tall task for any team. I think their path

1223
00:55:25,840 --> 00:55:28,719
Speaker 7: in division is so much easier, and frankly, you know,

1224
00:55:28,920 --> 00:55:33,200
Speaker 7: I can't remember ever seeing books unanimously put a team

1225
00:55:33,360 --> 00:55:35,360
Speaker 7: with more wins behind.

1226
00:55:35,160 --> 00:55:37,600
Speaker 3: Another team in the divisional market. Doesn't make any sense.

1227
00:55:38,120 --> 00:55:40,160
Speaker 7: You know that Angels under eighty three and a half,

1228
00:55:40,200 --> 00:55:43,279
Speaker 7: I said, the eighty five at the win sportsbook is

1229
00:55:43,719 --> 00:55:44,880
Speaker 7: a ridiculous number.

1230
00:55:45,000 --> 00:55:47,879
Speaker 3: That's paying for their ceiling. Would hit that under all day.

1231
00:55:48,239 --> 00:55:50,360
Speaker 7: And then the teams that have been bad, the Tigers

1232
00:55:50,520 --> 00:55:53,600
Speaker 7: under sixty seven and a half wins, the Orioles under

1233
00:55:53,640 --> 00:55:56,160
Speaker 7: sixty six sixty five and a half wins. I don't

1234
00:55:56,160 --> 00:55:58,200
Speaker 7: think those teams are ready to take a step up yet,

1235
00:55:58,200 --> 00:55:59,719
Speaker 7: and I think you can fade them for another year.

1236
00:56:00,239 --> 00:56:01,600
Speaker 3: Do we have any data on the.

1237
00:56:03,200 --> 00:56:05,560
Speaker 4: Off the top of your head or know of how

1238
00:56:05,600 --> 00:56:07,839
Speaker 4: the extremes performed the wind total markets like the.

1239
00:56:07,800 --> 00:56:08,680
Speaker 3: Highest and the lowest.

1240
00:56:08,920 --> 00:56:11,479
Speaker 7: The highest ones definitely do go under. The past five

1241
00:56:11,560 --> 00:56:13,520
Speaker 7: teams that have been higher than one hundred in the

1242
00:56:13,560 --> 00:56:15,279
Speaker 7: market have all gone under. I eight of the past

1243
00:56:15,320 --> 00:56:17,279
Speaker 7: ten have all gone under if they've been listed at

1244
00:56:17,280 --> 00:56:20,120
Speaker 7: more than one hundred. Obviously, this Odders team, which we'll

1245
00:56:20,120 --> 00:56:22,000
Speaker 7: talk about later in the week, might be an exception

1246
00:56:22,080 --> 00:56:24,879
Speaker 7: to that rule. But you know, in terms of how

1247
00:56:24,960 --> 00:56:27,719
Speaker 7: I evaluate these, use multiple projections.

1248
00:56:27,760 --> 00:56:30,560
Speaker 3: Don't just use my projection, don't just use fangrafts.

1249
00:56:30,880 --> 00:56:33,880
Speaker 7: Like if you compared every single win total projection to

1250
00:56:34,160 --> 00:56:36,600
Speaker 7: every win total over the past three years, you're going

1251
00:56:36,680 --> 00:56:39,400
Speaker 7: to hit it about fifty four percent. If you average

1252
00:56:39,400 --> 00:56:41,840
Speaker 7: those projections together and use them, the bet you're going

1253
00:56:41,880 --> 00:56:44,239
Speaker 7: to hit closer to sixty percent, and that I've chucked out.

1254
00:56:44,520 --> 00:56:48,920
Speaker 7: Have you bet any American League World Series features just Houston,

1255
00:56:49,680 --> 00:56:52,160
Speaker 7: just Houston down to I like them the plus two thousand,

1256
00:56:52,200 --> 00:56:53,920
Speaker 7: but you can get them at twenty five hundred across

1257
00:56:53,920 --> 00:56:56,480
Speaker 7: the board. Like I said, my projections closer to plus

1258
00:56:56,520 --> 00:56:59,000
Speaker 7: seventeen hundred, and Fangrafts is even higher in them than

1259
00:56:59,040 --> 00:57:01,320
Speaker 7: I am at plus thirteen fifty.

1260
00:57:01,840 --> 00:57:04,800
Speaker 4: Colin want to recap and throw out some you go

1261
00:57:04,920 --> 00:57:07,799
Speaker 4: to find us the next Kyle Lewis whatever this.

1262
00:57:07,920 --> 00:57:10,520
Speaker 6: Year, when those odds get out then and if I

1263
00:57:10,560 --> 00:57:13,080
Speaker 6: make a bet, I guarantee you'll hear about it on

1264
00:57:13,120 --> 00:57:15,319
Speaker 6: Twitter and hopefully we can have some success like we

1265
00:57:15,360 --> 00:57:17,560
Speaker 6: did last year with Kyle Lewis. The biggest bet that

1266
00:57:17,600 --> 00:57:19,640
Speaker 6: I like in AL right now is the Astros to

1267
00:57:19,680 --> 00:57:22,000
Speaker 6: win the AL West at plus one sixty right now

1268
00:57:22,040 --> 00:57:24,720
Speaker 6: at DraftKings, I did sprinkle a little bit on the

1269
00:57:24,720 --> 00:57:27,360
Speaker 6: Blue Jays to win the AL at twelve to one.

1270
00:57:27,400 --> 00:57:29,120
Speaker 6: I wouldn't get it anywhere past ten to one. You

1271
00:57:29,160 --> 00:57:30,640
Speaker 6: need a lot of things to happen there. But it

1272
00:57:30,800 --> 00:57:33,040
Speaker 6: is a division where I think a lot of teams

1273
00:57:33,080 --> 00:57:35,360
Speaker 6: in the East are on their way spiraling down, while

1274
00:57:35,360 --> 00:57:37,360
Speaker 6: I think the Blue Jays are a team that's going up.

1275
00:57:37,880 --> 00:57:41,320
Speaker 6: As far as some individual bets that I've made, ti

1276
00:57:41,360 --> 00:57:44,160
Speaker 6: Oscar Hernandez two hundred and one that's at Westgate right

1277
00:57:44,200 --> 00:57:47,160
Speaker 6: now to win the home run title. He's you know,

1278
00:57:47,240 --> 00:57:49,280
Speaker 6: projected by ZIP so just to be a couple off

1279
00:57:49,280 --> 00:57:52,040
Speaker 6: from the leaders like we're Ronald Lacuna, Hernandez is going

1280
00:57:52,080 --> 00:57:54,640
Speaker 6: to be batting forth in a lineup that's filled with

1281
00:57:54,920 --> 00:57:58,320
Speaker 6: offensive firepower. He's gonna have plenty of protection, and like

1282
00:57:58,360 --> 00:58:00,680
Speaker 6: I mentioned his exit velocity went up when the rest

1283
00:58:00,680 --> 00:58:00,840
Speaker 6: of the.

1284
00:58:00,880 --> 00:58:01,880
Speaker 3: League went down.

1285
00:58:02,280 --> 00:58:03,600
Speaker 5: Another one that I'm looking for.

1286
00:58:03,680 --> 00:58:08,920
Speaker 6: He is not listed on DK's RBI odds, but I

1287
00:58:08,920 --> 00:58:12,760
Speaker 6: am looking for Luke Voight RBIs between his plate appearances

1288
00:58:12,800 --> 00:58:16,520
Speaker 6: increasing injuries in the offense for the Yankees. I think

1289
00:58:16,600 --> 00:58:18,160
Speaker 6: Voight is going to be one of the best hitters

1290
00:58:18,200 --> 00:58:20,200
Speaker 6: in that Yankees lineup, and that's going to equal a

1291
00:58:20,200 --> 00:58:21,720
Speaker 6: lot of runs. And I think Void is going to

1292
00:58:22,120 --> 00:58:25,320
Speaker 6: probably get over that. He's projected about ninety seven RBIs

1293
00:58:25,360 --> 00:58:27,960
Speaker 6: on just five hundred plate appearances. If those plate appearances

1294
00:58:28,040 --> 00:58:31,440
Speaker 6: get over the six twenty, he easily could have more RBIs,

1295
00:58:31,840 --> 00:58:34,000
Speaker 6: especially considering where he's going to bat in that lineup.

1296
00:58:34,400 --> 00:58:36,960
Speaker 6: Kirby Yates I mentioned he's the closer for the Blue

1297
00:58:37,040 --> 00:58:39,080
Speaker 6: Jays right now, he's listed at twenty to one to

1298
00:58:39,120 --> 00:58:41,840
Speaker 6: have most saves. I think we need to watch over

1299
00:58:41,880 --> 00:58:44,680
Speaker 6: the next four weeks in spring training how healthy is

1300
00:58:44,800 --> 00:58:46,520
Speaker 6: Kirby Yates, because I think the Blue Jays are gonna

1301
00:58:46,560 --> 00:58:48,040
Speaker 6: win a lot of games. That's going to be a

1302
00:58:48,080 --> 00:58:49,720
Speaker 6: lot of saves for Yates. But you need a better

1303
00:58:49,800 --> 00:58:52,360
Speaker 6: nuther twenty to one to see if he's back at

1304
00:58:52,360 --> 00:58:55,720
Speaker 6: twenty nineteen. And finally the number that I love is

1305
00:58:55,840 --> 00:58:59,480
Speaker 6: Aldberto Mondesi for stolen bases. The number is not that

1306
00:58:59,520 --> 00:59:02,680
Speaker 6: great plus one hundred DK, but you know at forty

1307
00:59:02,720 --> 00:59:06,680
Speaker 6: six projected stolen bases that blows basically everybody else out

1308
00:59:06,720 --> 00:59:08,840
Speaker 6: of the water. You want a deep sleeper and other

1309
00:59:08,840 --> 00:59:11,840
Speaker 6: books if they come out with stolen base odds, you

1310
00:59:11,920 --> 00:59:14,320
Speaker 6: need to look at a couple of Mets, Jonathan Vr,

1311
00:59:14,600 --> 00:59:17,360
Speaker 6: Kilil Lee. Those are guys that can steal over thirty

1312
00:59:17,360 --> 00:59:19,400
Speaker 6: five bases and if something happens in mondes See, it

1313
00:59:19,440 --> 00:59:22,520
Speaker 6: gets hurt. These are guys like I believe Jonathan Vr

1314
00:59:22,560 --> 00:59:24,160
Speaker 6: is at thirty three to one right now to win

1315
00:59:24,200 --> 00:59:26,880
Speaker 6: to have most stolen bases. That is a little bit

1316
00:59:26,920 --> 00:59:29,919
Speaker 6: of value. Zips projects him at thirty nine. Khalil Lee

1317
00:59:29,960 --> 00:59:31,880
Speaker 6: is the guy that got traded for Andrew ben Attendi.

1318
00:59:32,160 --> 00:59:34,960
Speaker 6: He easily could steal over thirty five bags, but he's

1319
00:59:34,960 --> 00:59:37,040
Speaker 6: not on the betting board. So as far as stolen

1320
00:59:37,040 --> 00:59:38,440
Speaker 6: bases go, that's where I'm headed.

1321
00:59:38,800 --> 00:59:40,800
Speaker 7: Just wanted a quick quick note on the Rookie of

1322
00:59:40,800 --> 00:59:43,600
Speaker 7: the year market. This is the most loaded rookie class

1323
00:59:43,760 --> 00:59:45,920
Speaker 7: in a long time because a lot of players who

1324
00:59:46,600 --> 00:59:49,440
Speaker 7: got fairly significant playing time last year. Are still carrying

1325
00:59:49,480 --> 00:59:52,120
Speaker 7: over rookie status this season. Randy or Rose Arena is

1326
00:59:52,120 --> 00:59:55,680
Speaker 7: still a rookie. Yeah, James Carrotrack still a rookie. Tristan

1327
00:59:55,760 --> 00:59:58,960
Speaker 7: McKenzie still a rookie. I mean, Wander Franco is going

1328
00:59:59,040 --> 01:00:01,680
Speaker 7: to come up and justify Rookie of the Year status.

1329
01:00:01,720 --> 01:00:04,800
Speaker 7: Keelnick's gonna come up and justify it immediately. This is

1330
01:00:04,840 --> 01:00:06,920
Speaker 7: going to be some of the most exciting Rookie of

1331
01:00:06,920 --> 01:00:09,400
Speaker 7: the Year races you've ever seen in baseball history.

1332
01:00:09,400 --> 01:00:11,960
Speaker 4: Come on, you're not going to throw on Tioscar Hernandez

1333
01:00:12,720 --> 01:00:13,320
Speaker 4: to an MVP.

1334
01:00:13,480 --> 01:00:15,760
Speaker 3: I think he finished eleventh in MVP voting last year.

1335
01:00:15,840 --> 01:00:17,760
Speaker 6: Listen, I'm I know that the hate is coming out

1336
01:00:17,760 --> 01:00:19,920
Speaker 6: of hears Tiascar Hernandez stuff, and listen.

1337
01:00:19,680 --> 01:00:22,040
Speaker 3: I don't hate it. I just not forget.

1338
01:00:22,160 --> 01:00:24,040
Speaker 5: I grew up hating the Blue Jays. That's who.

1339
01:00:24,080 --> 01:00:26,000
Speaker 6: That's how we got to the World Series in one,

1340
01:00:26,040 --> 01:00:28,400
Speaker 6: in eighty five and in twenty eighteen by going through

1341
01:00:28,400 --> 01:00:32,120
Speaker 6: the Blue Jays. But I cannot ignore ti Oscar hernandez

1342
01:00:32,160 --> 01:00:35,960
Speaker 6: exit velocity, his hard hit percentage.

1343
01:00:35,440 --> 01:00:38,400
Speaker 5: Batting in the middle of that cannon of an offense.

1344
01:00:38,480 --> 01:00:40,800
Speaker 6: I love everything about the Blue Jays offense and ti

1345
01:00:40,840 --> 01:00:42,320
Speaker 6: Oscar Hernandez.

1346
01:00:42,080 --> 01:00:43,400
Speaker 3: Maybe a super long shot.

1347
01:00:43,440 --> 01:00:46,120
Speaker 4: You look, I mean the Blue Jays need pitching, maybe

1348
01:00:46,600 --> 01:00:49,200
Speaker 4: Oscar Tiascar Hernandez, cy Young maybe they use.

1349
01:00:49,160 --> 01:00:50,400
Speaker 3: Him as a pitcher too. Who knows.

1350
01:00:50,520 --> 01:00:52,440
Speaker 5: There's gonna be a lot of big games here. It's

1351
01:00:52,440 --> 01:00:54,000
Speaker 5: gonna be ten to eleven every game.

1352
01:00:54,480 --> 01:00:56,040
Speaker 3: Okay, great stuff, guys.

1353
01:00:56,920 --> 01:01:01,000
Speaker 4: Before we sign off here, we have a recently hired

1354
01:01:01,080 --> 01:01:06,600
Speaker 4: someone that I am extremely excited about, in Colin Woochurch.

1355
01:01:06,640 --> 01:01:08,760
Speaker 4: I mean, how many people can we have on one

1356
01:01:08,880 --> 01:01:12,320
Speaker 4: baseball staff with two l's in their name, Colin Wilson

1357
01:01:12,360 --> 01:01:14,840
Speaker 4: and Colin wicharch I pick. My joke was that you

1358
01:01:14,880 --> 01:01:19,160
Speaker 4: have four l's, two w's, five ols. I don't know,

1359
01:01:19,280 --> 01:01:19,880
Speaker 4: four l's.

1360
01:01:19,720 --> 01:01:21,800
Speaker 3: And two w's. Whatever. It's a horrible joke by me.

1361
01:01:22,280 --> 01:01:23,240
Speaker 3: So he's a new editor.

1362
01:01:23,480 --> 01:01:26,440
Speaker 4: Colin came from Baseball Perspectives, really knows his stuff. I mean,

1363
01:01:26,520 --> 01:01:29,600
Speaker 4: our slack baseball channel is insane. I used to have

1364
01:01:29,640 --> 01:01:32,400
Speaker 4: notifications on for every passage. I had to turn them

1365
01:01:32,440 --> 01:01:35,720
Speaker 4: off because my phone is just blowing up the entire day.

1366
01:01:35,880 --> 01:01:37,400
Speaker 3: So now like every hour I go in and I

1367
01:01:37,480 --> 01:01:39,560
Speaker 3: catch up and just a brilliant.

1368
01:01:39,160 --> 01:01:42,560
Speaker 4: Baseball mind and since baseball fans had a lot of

1369
01:01:42,600 --> 01:01:46,840
Speaker 4: states this year, could finally gamble legally this season. Here's

1370
01:01:47,320 --> 01:01:50,400
Speaker 4: Colin Woochurch and with his favorite bets for all of

1371
01:01:50,440 --> 01:01:55,040
Speaker 4: the Ale teams impacted. That would be the Yankees, Orioles

1372
01:01:55,480 --> 01:02:00,000
Speaker 4: and the aforementioned White Sox and Tigers taken away.

1373
01:02:00,760 --> 01:02:02,960
Speaker 2: Now let me caution you this is only an exhibition.

1374
01:02:03,160 --> 01:02:06,280
Speaker 3: This is not a competition. As always, please no wagering.

1375
01:02:06,560 --> 01:02:09,040
Speaker 8: Thanks guys. As you know, more and more states are

1376
01:02:09,200 --> 01:02:12,160
Speaker 8: legalizing sports betting, which gives you more and more opportunities

1377
01:02:12,200 --> 01:02:14,880
Speaker 8: to bet on your favorite team win totals. Everyone loves

1378
01:02:14,880 --> 01:02:18,200
Speaker 8: win totals. We're going to start in Baltimore.

1379
01:02:18,480 --> 01:02:22,800
Speaker 3: It's Baltimore, gentlemen. The gods will not save you. I know.

1380
01:02:22,920 --> 01:02:25,960
Speaker 8: Virginia just recently legalized sports betting and there's a lot

1381
01:02:25,960 --> 01:02:29,840
Speaker 8: of Orioles fans there. We're looking at Baltimore's total of

1382
01:02:29,960 --> 01:02:33,880
Speaker 8: sixty four and a half wins and comparing it to

1383
01:02:34,520 --> 01:02:37,600
Speaker 8: the projections from our own action networks Shan Zarrillo, as

1384
01:02:37,640 --> 01:02:41,920
Speaker 8: well as other public projections such as Pokota Fangrafs, Dave Import,

1385
01:02:42,200 --> 01:02:44,680
Speaker 8: Baltimore Orioles sixty four and a half wins.

1386
01:02:44,840 --> 01:02:48,360
Speaker 5: I like the under. Everyone is under here for the

1387
01:02:48,360 --> 01:02:49,760
Speaker 5: Orioles except for Pacoda.

1388
01:02:50,080 --> 01:02:53,959
Speaker 8: Our Shanzillo is under Fangrass is under Dave imports under

1389
01:02:54,400 --> 01:02:56,120
Speaker 8: the Orioles play, as you know, in one of the

1390
01:02:56,160 --> 01:02:59,320
Speaker 8: most competitive divisions in baseball, the American League East. The

1391
01:02:59,400 --> 01:03:02,080
Speaker 8: Yankees are the Yankees. The Blue Jays are sending. The

1392
01:03:02,200 --> 01:03:04,560
Speaker 8: Rays just went to the World Series. It looks like

1393
01:03:04,600 --> 01:03:06,880
Speaker 8: another one hundred lost season for Baltimore. I like the

1394
01:03:07,000 --> 01:03:09,200
Speaker 8: under here, and I would play that down to sixty

1395
01:03:09,280 --> 01:03:10,440
Speaker 8: three and a half wins.

1396
01:03:10,880 --> 01:03:13,400
Speaker 3: I'll take any motherfucker's money if he giving it away.

1397
01:03:13,600 --> 01:03:15,640
Speaker 8: Sports betting has been legal for some time now in

1398
01:03:15,760 --> 01:03:18,160
Speaker 8: New Jersey, which, as you know, is a big area

1399
01:03:18,280 --> 01:03:21,560
Speaker 8: for Yankees fans. They have the top win projection in

1400
01:03:21,600 --> 01:03:24,800
Speaker 8: the American League and ninety five and a half wins.

1401
01:03:25,080 --> 01:03:27,240
Speaker 8: I think that's too low. I would bet the over

1402
01:03:27,440 --> 01:03:30,720
Speaker 8: on the Yankees win total ninety five and a half.

1403
01:03:31,000 --> 01:03:34,960
Speaker 8: Everyone from public facing projections likes the over with the

1404
01:03:35,040 --> 01:03:37,200
Speaker 8: Yankees ninety five and a half wins, with the exception

1405
01:03:37,280 --> 01:03:40,480
Speaker 8: of our own Shanzril. So I'm going against Sean here. Sorry, Sean,

1406
01:03:40,800 --> 01:03:43,600
Speaker 8: I love you, but we're going over the ninety five

1407
01:03:43,600 --> 01:03:45,560
Speaker 8: and a half wins on the Yankees. I would play

1408
01:03:45,560 --> 01:03:47,000
Speaker 8: that up to ninety six and a half. I think

1409
01:03:47,040 --> 01:03:48,960
Speaker 8: they're going to dominate this division. The Rays are going

1410
01:03:49,040 --> 01:03:51,240
Speaker 8: to take a step back. The Blue Jays, as I mentioned,

1411
01:03:51,280 --> 01:03:54,000
Speaker 8: are ascending, but I don't think they're quite there yet.

1412
01:03:54,000 --> 01:03:55,960
Speaker 8: The Yankees are going to be approaching one hundred wins

1413
01:03:55,960 --> 01:03:58,000
Speaker 8: again this season. I'll play the over ninety five and

1414
01:03:58,000 --> 01:03:58,760
Speaker 8: a half wins.

1415
01:03:59,120 --> 01:04:01,440
Speaker 3: This is a dream busting, Jerry a busting.

1416
01:04:01,560 --> 01:04:02,520
Speaker 5: I can't believe it.

1417
01:04:02,920 --> 01:04:06,480
Speaker 8: Another state that's new to legal online sports betting in

1418
01:04:06,520 --> 01:04:10,720
Speaker 8: the American League, Michigan, where Tigers fans. They've had a

1419
01:04:10,760 --> 01:04:13,120
Speaker 8: tough couple of years, but it's a It's a good

1420
01:04:13,120 --> 01:04:15,919
Speaker 8: opportunity for Tigers fans to get in on their team,

1421
01:04:16,360 --> 01:04:20,120
Speaker 8: and the Tigers bet is where I'm going most Against

1422
01:04:20,160 --> 01:04:23,200
Speaker 8: all of the projection systems I've mentioned here, the Tigers

1423
01:04:23,280 --> 01:04:27,080
Speaker 8: total is sixty eight and a half wins. Pakoda's under there,

1424
01:04:27,360 --> 01:04:29,919
Speaker 8: our own, Sean Zarrillo is under there, Dave Import's under there.

1425
01:04:30,040 --> 01:04:32,800
Speaker 8: Fangrass is the only one that's going over, and I'm

1426
01:04:32,840 --> 01:04:35,919
Speaker 8: siding with Fangrafts here. The Tigers are a young team,

1427
01:04:36,160 --> 01:04:38,160
Speaker 8: They're gonna struggle a lot there. They have to go

1428
01:04:38,200 --> 01:04:39,880
Speaker 8: against the White Sox, they have to go against the

1429
01:04:39,880 --> 01:04:42,960
Speaker 8: Twins in that division, and they're gonna struggle a lot early.

1430
01:04:43,280 --> 01:04:45,680
Speaker 8: But unlike a lot of rebuilding teams, toward the end

1431
01:04:45,680 --> 01:04:47,160
Speaker 8: of the season, they're going to be calling up a

1432
01:04:47,160 --> 01:04:50,600
Speaker 8: lot of their young players, players hungry to earn jobs

1433
01:04:50,640 --> 01:04:52,760
Speaker 8: for the future, to earn jobs for twenty twenty one.

1434
01:04:53,080 --> 01:04:55,040
Speaker 8: I like them as a slight over sixty eight and

1435
01:04:55,080 --> 01:04:56,720
Speaker 8: a half wins. I don't think I would play at

1436
01:04:56,720 --> 01:04:58,400
Speaker 8: above sixty eight and a half, So if you see

1437
01:04:58,400 --> 01:04:59,920
Speaker 8: the number at sixty nine to sixty nine and a ha,

1438
01:05:00,640 --> 01:05:02,600
Speaker 8: I wouldn't play it. But sixty eight and a half

1439
01:05:02,680 --> 01:05:03,560
Speaker 8: I like the slide over.

1440
01:05:05,520 --> 01:05:07,080
Speaker 2: Hello Detroit.

1441
01:05:09,760 --> 01:05:15,280
Speaker 8: One final American League team, the White Sox in Chicago

1442
01:05:15,320 --> 01:05:18,439
Speaker 8: and Illinois, another state with league online sports betting. Full

1443
01:05:18,440 --> 01:05:21,240
Speaker 8: disclosure here, White Sox fan grew up rooting for the

1444
01:05:21,240 --> 01:05:24,120
Speaker 8: White Sox. I've written about the White Sox for a

1445
01:05:24,160 --> 01:05:28,200
Speaker 8: long time that said their win total is too high

1446
01:05:28,320 --> 01:05:31,480
Speaker 8: ninety one and a half. Every single projection system likes

1447
01:05:31,520 --> 01:05:33,960
Speaker 8: the under here, and I'm with the projection systems the

1448
01:05:33,960 --> 01:05:36,160
Speaker 8: White Sox. I have a lot of Helium right now.

1449
01:05:36,160 --> 01:05:39,240
Speaker 8: After breaking an eleven year playoff drought last year, everyone

1450
01:05:39,320 --> 01:05:41,480
Speaker 8: expects them to fend off the Twins for the American

1451
01:05:41,560 --> 01:05:44,400
Speaker 8: League Central title. Ninety one and a half wins is

1452
01:05:44,480 --> 01:05:47,840
Speaker 8: simply too high. The team has too many flaws around

1453
01:05:48,000 --> 01:05:52,360
Speaker 8: the back of their rotation, right field, the bullpen. They

1454
01:05:52,360 --> 01:05:55,360
Speaker 8: added Liam Hendrix, they added Lancelnn, but there's too many

1455
01:05:55,440 --> 01:05:57,280
Speaker 8: questions for it to go ninety one and a half.

1456
01:05:57,560 --> 01:05:59,920
Speaker 8: I would play the under here, as much as it

1457
01:06:00,040 --> 01:06:02,360
Speaker 8: pains me to say, the Twins are still the class

1458
01:06:02,400 --> 01:06:04,840
Speaker 8: of that division. The White Sox are a very impressive roster,

1459
01:06:04,880 --> 01:06:06,760
Speaker 8: but too many question marks for that number to be

1460
01:06:06,800 --> 01:06:08,760
Speaker 8: as high as ninety one and a half. I would

1461
01:06:08,760 --> 01:06:11,240
Speaker 8: play the under there down to eighty eight and a half.

1462
01:06:14,000 --> 01:06:23,360
Speaker 3: Prove it sucks, thank you, thank you. Where and all

1463
01:06:23,440 --> 01:06:27,240
Speaker 3: through the season you will hear a same let's.

1464
01:06:27,080 --> 01:06:31,080
Speaker 4: Go go go what sucks.

1465
01:06:33,680 --> 01:06:37,600
Speaker 8: Those are my four American League over under picks. Congratulations

1466
01:06:37,600 --> 01:06:40,640
Speaker 8: again to Virginia, to New Jersey, to Michigan to Illinois.

1467
01:06:40,720 --> 01:06:42,880
Speaker 8: You can legally bet on your sports teams, go to

1468
01:06:42,920 --> 01:06:46,200
Speaker 8: the books, throw around those numbers back to you guys.

1469
01:06:46,680 --> 01:06:49,480
Speaker 4: All right, good stuff, Thank you for that Colin. Thanks

1470
01:06:49,520 --> 01:06:53,800
Speaker 4: to Colin Wilson and Sean Zerilla for joining me as well.

1471
01:06:54,160 --> 01:06:55,800
Speaker 4: We'll be back later in the week with our National

1472
01:06:55,840 --> 01:06:59,560
Speaker 4: League Betting preview episode. Zilla is gonna tell me about

1473
01:06:59,640 --> 01:07:02,480
Speaker 4: his that's his first time he's had preseason Mets love.

1474
01:07:02,920 --> 01:07:04,400
Speaker 3: I'll talk about my Phillies.

1475
01:07:04,800 --> 01:07:06,600
Speaker 4: We can kind of go back and forth there and

1476
01:07:06,640 --> 01:07:09,200
Speaker 4: we'll cover every division like we did today.

1477
01:07:09,280 --> 01:07:10,640
Speaker 3: So thanks for listening everyone.

1478
01:07:11,000 --> 01:07:14,680
Speaker 4: Make sure you subscribe on Subscribe, leave a review really

1479
01:07:14,720 --> 01:07:16,520
Speaker 4: helps us out. Tell a friend, tell enemy, you know

1480
01:07:16,560 --> 01:07:18,080
Speaker 4: the drill. We'll catch you all later in the week.

1481
01:07:18,240 --> 01:07:19,880
Speaker 3: Cheers. So I'm the human Hours