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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast named vest Vetting Podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go throwing a job. We're sitting

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Speaker 2: up to a cash touchdown.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to win.

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Speaker 2: God, that's incredible. Big bank, small banks. I like to

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Speaker 2: make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate Kabai want to pull.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 4: And welcome to the week eight edition of the Action

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Speaker 4: Network Podcast. I'm your host, Chris Raybon, and this is

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Speaker 4: your week eight preview. I'm joined as always by my

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Speaker 4: Action Network coyweg In, the Prime Minister of degenerate Nation, Stucky.

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Speaker 3: How are you doing? How was your week number seven?

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Speaker 2: Profitable? Week? Got to avoid after DK Metcalf prevented a

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Speaker 2: touchdown against me. I almost had my heart sink when

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Speaker 2: he broke a touchdown. Although that would have been good

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Speaker 2: for you, I think that for your pick. So that

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Speaker 2: was a nice cap off on the weekend. And then

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Speaker 2: I also had the Rams in the under except the

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Speaker 2: Browns missed extra point that cost me a sleeper sides.

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Speaker 2: That's typical Browns fashion.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I was on the Browns as well, so that

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Speaker 4: that was not fun for me either. But overall, had

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Speaker 4: a pretty good week both on bets and props. And

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Speaker 4: I think I finally hit the total on this show,

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Speaker 4: which is nice. And I got the number one accuracy

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Speaker 4: finish in Fantasy this week, so I'm feeling good.

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Speaker 3: Let's get into the podcast.

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Speaker 4: Well, preview Thursday night, give you our sixth top sides

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Speaker 4: of the week. In the Sunday six pack, give you

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Speaker 4: our favorite teaser, our favorite total money line underdog, all

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Speaker 4: that good stuff, And before we kicked off, two very

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Speaker 4: quick reminders. Number One, if you plan on betting the

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Speaker 4: NFL this season and have it downloaded, the free award

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Speaker 4: betting tools, analysis from myself, Stucky, the whole Action Network team,

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Speaker 4: and it lets you track every bet that you make.

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Speaker 4: Vegas vacation, don't forget to enter the Action Pods Tournament

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Speaker 4: Forty spots in the wild Card Weekend Grand Finale are

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Speaker 4: still up for grabs and there's nothing to lose. Just

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Speaker 4: imagine yourself on that free Vegas vacation, your gambling drinking

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Speaker 4: run into Raiders owner Mark Davis at the ol Cortes

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Speaker 4: penny Swats.

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Speaker 3: You start chatting, and next thing you know, boom, you're.

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Speaker 4: In his limo on the way to Supercuts because he's

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Speaker 4: buying you his favorite nine dollars haircut. Anything as possible,

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Speaker 4: So sign up now using the link in this episode description.

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Speaker 4: All right, stuck, Let's get into the Thursday night football game.

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Speaker 5: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 5: Let's bet Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 4: So for Week eight, we have the Atlanta Falcons in

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Speaker 4: a rematch of the Dan Quinn firing game against these

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Speaker 4: Carolina Panthers, who I must say been pleasantly surprised with

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Speaker 4: how they're holding up. They're nothing special, but they're playing

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Speaker 4: pretty solid on pass defense and pretty competitive most weeks.

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Speaker 3: Teddy Bridgewater are doing well.

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Speaker 4: So we have the Falcons as we record this on

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Speaker 4: Wednesday night as two and a half point underdogs a

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Speaker 4: little bit of juice in their favors, so the Panthers

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Speaker 4: minus two and a half juice step to minus one fifteen.

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Speaker 4: At bet MVM, the official odds provider of the podcast,

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Speaker 4: the total is fifty and a half with the over

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Speaker 4: slightly juiced to minus one fifteen.

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Speaker 3: Stuck thoughts on this game.

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Speaker 2: The Panthers have been a lot better than I thought

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Speaker 2: early on in this season, I significantly bumped them. The

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Speaker 2: Falcons have remained pretty much unchanged to me from a

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Speaker 2: power ratings perspective, Like their defenses come down a little bit,

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Speaker 2: but they kind of are who I thought they were,

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Speaker 2: and then they look they could easily be like three

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Speaker 2: and four, four and three. I mean they just they

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Speaker 2: lost the game of the Cowboys by one. They lost

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Speaker 2: last week because they couldn't prevent themselves from falling into

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Speaker 2: the end zone. So it's not a great team. They lost.

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Speaker 3: They're losers.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I haven't adjusted them that much here. You know,

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Speaker 2: they lost to the Bears by four and they blew

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Speaker 2: that big lead, so it's not like they've been getting

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Speaker 2: blown out and I had to be like, this team

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Speaker 2: is way worse than I thought. They've just been finding

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Speaker 2: ways to lose. Their defense is terrible, their offense is

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Speaker 2: pretty good. They lost this game a couple of weeks ago.

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Speaker 2: They were laying two two and a half at home.

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Speaker 2: Juya Jones didn't play, which is worth noting. Atlanta's still

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Speaker 2: tore up Carolina's rush defense, which is still awful. I

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Speaker 2: mean they get no push inside, you know. I mean

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Speaker 2: they lost kay Wan Short for the year. I think

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Speaker 2: he was kind of washed, but it was still a

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Speaker 2: big body inside. On the outside, it's basically just on

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Speaker 2: the edge. I should say, it's basically just Brian Burns

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Speaker 2: getting pressure. But it's not a defense that's going to

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Speaker 2: get a lot of pressure. They are twenty ninth and

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Speaker 2: adjusted sack rate. The Panthers are the most zone heavy

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Speaker 2: team in the NFL on defense, so they're running a

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Speaker 2: ton of zone and their past defense has been really good.

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Speaker 2: Now ken it last, and the linebackers stink. They replaced

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Speaker 2: Luke Kickley with you know, one of the worst linebackers

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Speaker 2: in the league. And their run defense is suffered because

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Speaker 2: the running was historically bad last year, but their their

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Speaker 2: secondaries which kept them in you know, and their offense,

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Speaker 2: their offense has been top ten in efficiency even since

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Speaker 2: McCaffrey went down. I don't think he's gonna play. But

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Speaker 2: let's look at the pass defense for the Panthers. Dante Jackson,

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Speaker 2: who is their top corner ish coming into the year,

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Speaker 2: he left a Week five matchup and that Julio Jones

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Speaker 2: didn't play in. But the main guy for the Panthers

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Speaker 2: this year has been Rasseul Douglas and Raseull Douglas has

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Speaker 2: been a shadow guy most of the year and he's

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Speaker 2: played really well. Can he keep it up? I don't know.

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Speaker 2: Can corn Elder another guy that I don't necessarily think

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Speaker 2: is that great. Can he keep it up? They're both

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Speaker 2: playing really well. I'm not sure. Razeull Douglas is still

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Speaker 2: on the COVID list they cut, so I don't know

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Speaker 2: if he's eligible to He is eligible to come off

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Speaker 2: with a depend if he's showing symptoms like he can

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Speaker 2: come off tomorrow. But if he can't play, that means

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Speaker 2: Troy Pride is going, and that's not great for Carolina

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Speaker 2: because instead of you know, having your shadow guy who's

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Speaker 2: played really well, you have Pride, who's ranks one hundred

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Speaker 2: and twenty third out of one hundred and twenty six

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Speaker 2: qualifying quarterbacks per PFF. He just hasn't been that great.

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Speaker 2: So I look at Atlanta, I look at Carolina, and

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Speaker 2: I say, if Douglas isn't gonna play, or even if

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Speaker 2: Dougas isn't gonna play with Julio Jones back, I think

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Speaker 2: that the Falcons should be able to move the ball

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Speaker 2: through the air. I think you're going to see some

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Speaker 2: regression in this Panthers secondary, especially if Douglas is out.

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Speaker 2: Falcons will be able to run and anyone can run

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Speaker 2: it on the Panthers. The Falcons did so in the

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Speaker 2: last matchup. On the other side of the ball, the

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Speaker 2: Falcons defense just thinks there's no reason why Carolina can't

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Speaker 2: move the ball here. I also like that Samuel is

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Speaker 2: going to get all the slot snaps now, so I

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Speaker 2: actually like the over here. Their weather wasn't concern early

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Speaker 2: in the week. Doesn't look like it'll be your light

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Speaker 2: rain only wind is like ten miles an hour. Once

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Speaker 2: you get up to like twelve fifteen and above, especially

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Speaker 2: to the twenties, that's when it really makes a difference. Panthers,

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Speaker 2: there are a snail, which is a little concerning, but

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Speaker 2: the Falcons go fast. They think make that makes up

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Speaker 2: for it. Russell o'cun likely out for Carolina. John Miller

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Speaker 2: will get the start in his place. Not that big

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Speaker 2: of a deal against the Falcons. It's not like they

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Speaker 2: have elite pass rushers, as I said, So yeah, I

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Speaker 2: think the Falcons that with Julio Jones now back, shouldn't

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Speaker 2: have issues moving the ball. They're going to play fast

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Speaker 2: and everyone can move the ball on the Panthers. So

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Speaker 2: I actually, despite that twenty three to sixteen score in

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Speaker 2: the first matchup, I actually like the over anything under

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Speaker 2: fifty one, and from a side perspective, the line is

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Speaker 2: about right. To me, I'm still lower on the Panthers

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Speaker 2: of most people. I make the Panthers a short favorite here,

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Speaker 2: not enough to play the Falcons, but it's two and

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Speaker 2: a half point spread. You know what I'm doing, I'm

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Speaker 2: teasing the Falcons. So I tease the Falcons up over

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Speaker 2: eight to eight and a half. I threw them at

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Speaker 2: a teaser which we'll get too later in our teaser segment.

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Speaker 2: But I did throw them in a teaser with the

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Speaker 2: forty nine ers, uh getting them to over one possession

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Speaker 2: against the Seahawks my face or tease piece. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I like the over and teasing the Falcons.

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Speaker 4: Carolina is a fascinating team. I think the coaching has

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Speaker 4: made a positive difference. You know, we didn't really know

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Speaker 4: what Matt rule was, and I think probably the exceeding

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Speaker 4: of expectations that you're seeing, at least from your vantage

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Speaker 4: point as somebody that was lower on them, it's probably

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Speaker 4: just coming from them being you know, decently coached and

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Speaker 4: being able to kind of play within themselves each week. Again,

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Speaker 4: I think they've been competitive, you know, week in week out.

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Speaker 4: Bet against them a couple of times, bet on them

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Speaker 4: against a couple of times I think have been fairly successful.

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Speaker 4: Did get burned by I think it was that actual

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Speaker 4: same over that Falcons Panthers over which went way under.

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Speaker 4: And that's something I'm maybe a little concerned about as well,

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Speaker 4: is just when you have a team that plays so

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Speaker 4: much zone, maybe you know, it's kind of like you

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Speaker 4: have efficient drives, but they're not really taking as many

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Speaker 4: shots down the field. So maybe that's kind of a

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Speaker 4: reason why some of these games that we think are

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Speaker 4: going to be kind of over smashing are are not.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, I wouldn't touch the Falcons.

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Speaker 4: I thought you were gonna make a case for the

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Speaker 4: Falcons when you started talking honestly, but.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, this game's kind of a stay away for me.

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Speaker 4: Could just because the second divisional games, so there'll be

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Speaker 4: adjustments and that makes the total kind of shaky and

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Speaker 4: not betting the Falcons, but there's no value on the

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Speaker 4: Panthers here, So yeah, I think the Panthers are a

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Speaker 4: team most weeks that there will be some value on them.

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Speaker 4: You know a lot of people I knew were on

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Speaker 4: them against the Saints. I actually wasn't, but they ended

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Speaker 4: up staying keeping it close there. So this is a

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Speaker 4: stay away from you. Maybe I'll bet some props.

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Speaker 2: I just still think that this Carolina defense is a

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Speaker 2: bottom five unit. They've been playing not like a bottom

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Speaker 2: five unit. They've been playing like an average unit when

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Speaker 2: you matched Agains. I mean, they run defense been atrocious,

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Speaker 2: but past defense is through. It matters in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: I just think that, you know, with all their zone looks,

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Speaker 2: you're gonna have teams, especially the second time around, like

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Speaker 2: the Falcons just saw them, can make some adjustments on offense.

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Speaker 2: Obviously have Julio Jones's time as well. I just think

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Speaker 2: a lot of their corners are overperforming and you'll see

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Speaker 2: some regression over a small sample size. Is you know,

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Speaker 2: it's only been like six or seven weeks, so I

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Speaker 2: think that we'll see a dip there. And yeah, I'm

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Speaker 2: rolling with the over. And now the te's of the Falcons.

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Speaker 4: So you mentioned the zones, and I think that number

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Speaker 4: one may be a reason why, like corners don't get exposed.

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Speaker 4: But I'm looking at the numbers now and yeah, Carolina,

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Speaker 4: you don't expect them to play well on defense. But

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Speaker 4: what I do notice, and this is something that I've

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Speaker 4: been paid attention to in regard to totals, is that

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Speaker 4: their average depth of target allowed on defense is six

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Speaker 4: point six, which is tied for fewest in the league.

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Speaker 3: And I've noticed that a lot.

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Speaker 4: Of games with when you have defenses that are allowing

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Speaker 4: like lower depth of targets, that helps them go under

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Speaker 4: because even if the defense is bad, they're kind of

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Speaker 4: giving up these short chunks or like short you know,

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Speaker 4: like dink and dunks, and there's longer drives and no

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Speaker 4: offense can make a mistake. Is that something that you've

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Speaker 4: noticed or paid any attention to or factor in at all.

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Speaker 2: Sure, Yeah, I mean it's a lot of it comes

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Speaker 2: down to how well the secondary is playing your zones

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Speaker 2: and you know you're not having completely blown coverages. I mean,

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Speaker 2: you look at a team like the Raiders. They play

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Speaker 2: a lot of zone, but that doesn't really matter because

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Speaker 2: it's not a great zone with great corners and safeties

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Speaker 2: that are disciplined and stay in their zones and then

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Speaker 2: can make plays. It's a modified thing that like that

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Speaker 2: basically what the Broncos want to do. Keep everything in

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Speaker 2: front of you, and then once you get down to

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Speaker 2: the red zone, right then the field shortens and it

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Speaker 2: becomes harder on paper if you if you're a good

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Speaker 2: defense for the offensive score. So yeah, I think there's

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Speaker 2: if you do have an effective zone defense that you

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Speaker 2: can maintain in the NFL before the market adjusts. There's

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Speaker 2: certainly some correlation there.

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Speaker 3: So there you have it.

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Speaker 4: Thursday Night Football Panthers Falcons rematch. Dan Quinn can't get

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Speaker 4: fired this time because he's already gone. And speaking of

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Speaker 4: Thursday Night Football. As a reminder, you must be twenty

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Speaker 4: one or older and physically located in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, Nevada,

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Speaker 4: available in Nevada. All Right, Stuck, We're gonna save the

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Speaker 4: coaches pep talk because I know a really good spot

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Speaker 4: that you're gonna want to use it. So let's get

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Speaker 4: right into our Sunday six pack, which is where we

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Speaker 4: draft our top three sides of the.

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Speaker 5: Week Thursday for Action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack, all.

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Speaker 4: Right, So for those not familiar, Stuck and I take

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Speaker 4: turns we have a little draft of our top bets

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Speaker 4: of the week. Each pick is worth one except our

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Speaker 4: first one, which is worth double, and then our total

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Speaker 4: is worth one as well. Sweeping the board is a

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Speaker 4: bonus point as well, so twenty one to sixteen.

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Speaker 3: Stucky, you've built the lead. My Seahawks let.

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Speaker 4: Me down last week after a promising start, as as

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Speaker 4: they tend to do and always playing close games.

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Speaker 2: You warned me it feels like last year, though. I'm

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Speaker 2: just telling you, I'm gonna be up all year and

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Speaker 2: my lead is like this, and then I'm gonna get scared.

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Speaker 2: I want to get a cushion.

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Speaker 3: I am hitting my stride.

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Speaker 4: I told you I got the number one Fantasy accuracy.

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Speaker 4: I got my thirty day record has finally reversed from

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Speaker 4: like a bad two weeks stretch early in the year

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Speaker 4: when I was betting on the Vikings.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm feeling.

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Speaker 2: Good this week.

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Speaker 3: I am going with the Las Vegas.

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Speaker 4: Raiders for my first pick of the week eight Sunday

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Speaker 4: six pack. The Raiders are three point underdogs at the

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Speaker 4: Cleveland Browns, and.

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Speaker 3: I like the spot a lot for the Raiders.

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Speaker 4: You look at Cleveland and what they do well is

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Speaker 4: they run the ball and you think, okay, you know,

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Speaker 4: raiders coming in not not a good run defense.

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Speaker 3: Cleveland can handle this even without Odell Beckham. And in

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Speaker 3: the Raiders they don't.

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Speaker 4: They don't really get a ton of pressure, not like

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Speaker 4: you know, the teams were betting against them with like Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 4: But I think, first of all, the Odell Beckham loss

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Speaker 4: is massive regardless of how run heavy Cleveland is, because

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Speaker 4: remember they're also without Austin Hooper who was a major part.

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Speaker 4: So now they're playing you know, Harrison Bryant, who had

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Speaker 4: a good game. They still have them the Joku, but

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Speaker 4: this passing game is getting thinner and dinner. And you

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Speaker 4: look at Odell Beckham and what he meant to this offense.

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Speaker 4: On Odell plays, they scored a touchdown on eight point

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Speaker 4: five percent of their plays whether it was a target

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Speaker 4: pass carried by Odell, and they averaged eight point seven

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Speaker 4: yards per play. That drops all the way down to

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Speaker 4: five point five with just a four and a half touchdown.

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Speaker 3: Rate on all non Beckham plays.

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Speaker 4: And I think this raided offense can come in here

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Speaker 4: and score at will against Cleveland because I think most

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Speaker 4: teams are actually going to be able to score at

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Speaker 4: will against Cleveland number one. This defense is, you know,

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Speaker 4: they have some pieces, but not really a strong defense overall.

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Speaker 4: I've been giving up a ton of points. I was

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Speaker 4: highly critical of Derek Carr for much of his career,

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Speaker 4: but I've been noticing he's really starting to turn a

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Speaker 4: corner here. Really, since Ruden came to Oakland and now Vegas,

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Speaker 4: you know, his yards per attempt and his efficiencies started

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Speaker 4: going up. Didn't really have many receivers to speak of,

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Speaker 4: but now got Henry Ruggs, Waller's uh, you know in

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Speaker 4: the mix in a key target. Of course, Josh Jacobs

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Speaker 4: is there in the backfield, but Derek Carr right now

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Speaker 4: eighty point six QBR eight point twenty six adjusted netyards

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Speaker 4: per attempt. And remember that's extremely predictive of point differentials,

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Speaker 4: that adjusted netyards per attempt because it cracked sackyards counts

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Speaker 4: for touchdown and interception of variants to some degree.

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Speaker 3: So this Raider offense been playing well.

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Speaker 4: You know, was concerned about them last week with Tampa

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Speaker 4: Bay coming in and you know, the COVID and the

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Speaker 4: old line and just a tough matchup against a good

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Speaker 4: d I think this is a complete opposite. I think

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Speaker 4: the Raiders, you know, coming off a loss, which is

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Speaker 4: generally when you want to bet them, you know, coming

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Speaker 4: you know, when they're when they're kind of high rolling,

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Speaker 4: is not when you want to bet on the Raiders.

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Speaker 3: That that's actually the spot you want to fade them. Grooden.

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Speaker 4: It's like I think thirty seven percent off a win

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Speaker 4: and like the opposite off of loss. Well, this is

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Speaker 4: a spot where I like the Raiders. I expect them

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Speaker 4: to I fully expect them to win this game. What

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Speaker 4: we saw of Baker last week was a mirage, one

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Speaker 4: that I fear we expected given the Bengals getting no

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Speaker 4: pressure but a mirage and Derek Carr is grossly out

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Speaker 4: playing Baker.

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Speaker 2: Mayfield.

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Speaker 4: Never thought i'd hear myself saying that a couple of

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Speaker 4: years ago when Baker started off hot.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know if I necessarily agree. I don't.

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Speaker 2: I don't love the Browns. I'd actually teased another teaser

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Speaker 2: for the teaser Secle, I actually teased the Raiders up

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Speaker 2: from two and a half to eight and a half.

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Speaker 2: But the one thing that would concern me a couple

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Speaker 2: of things of note, All right, we should we shouldn't

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Speaker 2: have taken a song to mention this. There are extreme

365
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Speaker 2: wins in a number of games this weekend, which is

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Speaker 2: why you're seeing a lot of totals come down. I

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Speaker 2: was reading an article somewhere out there, I won't name

368
00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:54,000
Speaker 2: the site, and it was just it was talking about

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Speaker 2: a bunch of games, and it was just like, like,

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Speaker 2: the totals are coming this total's coming down to this,

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Speaker 2: totals coming down. I don't even mention any historically win

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Speaker 2: double digit win games fifty five percent against the closing

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Speaker 2: number on the under. That's against the closes, they usually

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Speaker 2: come down. Obviously, it's going to impact the passing game,

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00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:12,640
Speaker 2: the balls on the ground, where the clock's running, impacts

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Speaker 2: field goals. Blah blah blah. I mean, we have some

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Speaker 2: extreme win this weekend. We have twenty five mile on

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00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:20,840
Speaker 2: hour wins and projected in Green Bay, twenty to five

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00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:24,560
Speaker 2: mile hour projected wins in Buffalo, twenty to twenty five

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00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:28,840
Speaker 2: mile hour wins projected in Chicago, and twenty six mile

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00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:31,399
Speaker 2: per hower projected wins here in Cleveland, which is why

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Speaker 2: you're seeing that under come down. I still think the

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Speaker 2: boat teams should be able to move the ball like

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Speaker 2: both teams can run it. Both teams can move the

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Speaker 2: ball with short passing set up by the run. Maybe

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Speaker 2: it'll impact a deep shot or two. But the one

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Speaker 2: thing that concerns me with the Raiders here is we've

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Speaker 2: basically we've said we figured out the Browns, like the

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Speaker 2: Browns will go as Baker Mayfield goes, and Baker Mayfield

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Speaker 2: goes as the opposing pressure goes, and the two teams

391
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Speaker 2: he's played this year the other team could get pressure.

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Speaker 2: The Ravens and Steelers have been two of the worst

393
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Speaker 2: quarterback performances of any quarterback this season. The other games

394
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Speaker 2: playing teams that don't get pressure, he was fine. And

395
00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:13,680
Speaker 2: the Raiders don't get pressure. You know, the Raiders get

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Speaker 2: generally pressure on less than twenty five percent of their

397
00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:19,840
Speaker 2: pass rushing steps. That's twenty seventh in the league. So

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Speaker 2: it's not a defense that's great off the edge. It's

399
00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:25,639
Speaker 2: not a defense that loves the blitz a lot. So

400
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Speaker 2: I think the Brownsi be able to move the ball,

401
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:29,240
Speaker 2: but it's the same with the Raiders. I think it's

402
00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:31,879
Speaker 2: a back and forth game. So I don't hate your side,

403
00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:34,480
Speaker 2: but I'd prefer the tease and keep your eye on

404
00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:39,080
Speaker 2: the total because the wind is looking nasty, all right.

405
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Speaker 2: For my first pick in the Sunday six pack, in

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Speaker 2: the second overall at that MGM, the official arts provider

407
00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:51,840
Speaker 2: of The Action Podcast, I'm going with the Ravens minus

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Speaker 2: four against the Pittsburgh Steelers. This got to minus three

409
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Speaker 2: minus one twenty five earlier in the week and I

410
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Speaker 2: was like, yes, to take it. When it's up the four,

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Speaker 2: I still do like it. I make this line a

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Speaker 2: tad under six. Steelers do have some injury concerns. We'll

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Speaker 2: see if Johnson goes Roethlisberger for whatever reason. In practice today,

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Speaker 2: I'm assuming he's fine. Let's take a trip back in

415
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Speaker 2: time to last year when the eight to o Patriots

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Speaker 2: were going to Baltimore and the Ravens were coming off

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Speaker 2: of a bye, and everyone was in love with the

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Speaker 2: Patriots and everyone was kind of saying the Ravens, and

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Speaker 2: the Ravens came out off of a bye and just

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Speaker 2: absolutely steamrolled the Patriots. I think we had a similar

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Speaker 2: situation here where the Steelers they look they looked okay

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Speaker 2: against the Titans star and then been through three picks,

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Speaker 2: and it was who I thought they were.

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Speaker 3: They were who I thought.

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Speaker 2: I'm glad. I'm glad because, yeah, they've played nobody all year. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: their best win besides last week is.

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Speaker 4: That wasn't even a good win, I know, but that

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Speaker 4: is their best win a differential.

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Speaker 3: Yeah no.

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Speaker 4: And this is something coming from somebody that has a

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Speaker 4: Super Bowl future on the Steelers.

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Speaker 3: They're so overrated. This is a great call.

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Speaker 2: I know. It's a good raber, a Tomlin spot. I

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00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:11,920
Speaker 2: will throw that out there on the road against a

435
00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:15,160
Speaker 2: team that's over five hundred. But Harball is the best coach,

436
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:17,439
Speaker 2: second most profitable coach in the NFL history of flo By.

437
00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:19,520
Speaker 2: He's nine to three against the spread. He should be

438
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:22,080
Speaker 2: eleven and one straight up. The Ravens lost a game

439
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:24,560
Speaker 2: to the Jags, and back in twenty thirteen, the league

440
00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:27,600
Speaker 2: had an issue a formal apology for they call a

441
00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:29,920
Speaker 2: penalty after the clock was out and then the Jags

442
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:33,159
Speaker 2: kicked the field goal. So he really should be eleven

443
00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:36,320
Speaker 2: to one straight up. But he's covering by like an

444
00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 2: insane amount of points per game. But here's look. If

445
00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:42,440
Speaker 2: the Ravens also added in Gokway, he's a known Steeler killer,

446
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:44,200
Speaker 2: that's gonna help them a lot. They just need more

447
00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:47,080
Speaker 2: edge rushers. And then with their blitz and stunts, and

448
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:51,280
Speaker 2: they can bother Roethlisberger who that Steeers offense. The Steeers

449
00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:53,520
Speaker 2: offense is not playing well. The offensive line, and I've

450
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:56,280
Speaker 2: been saying it all year, is not as good. Roethlisberger

451
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:59,320
Speaker 2: might be shot. I don't know. His arm looks shot.

452
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:02,680
Speaker 2: He's Last week he could he attempted two passes longer

453
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:05,119
Speaker 2: than twenty yards. They both were picked. He has a

454
00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:08,480
Speaker 2: thirty four point six percent of just a completion percentage

455
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 2: on deep balls that ranks twenty seventh, just ahead of

456
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:16,720
Speaker 2: lock In Flacco. So look, I mean, I think that

457
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:20,400
Speaker 2: it's basically like this dink and dunk kind of passing attack.

458
00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:22,760
Speaker 2: And I think the Ravens at the corners to take

459
00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:24,480
Speaker 2: that away, they're going to die out the blitz. They

460
00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:27,560
Speaker 2: can be effective against the Steelers and where I think

461
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:29,399
Speaker 2: that the Ravens can have a ton of success on

462
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:31,879
Speaker 2: the offensive side of the ball. And look, the passing

463
00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:35,480
Speaker 2: offense has been great. Lamar has missed some deep balls,

464
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:38,880
Speaker 2: there's been some drops, But I also think the offensive

465
00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:42,840
Speaker 2: numbers are a bit skewed. Dower because Lamar was dealing

466
00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:44,560
Speaker 2: with an injury for a couple of weeks like he

467
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:48,639
Speaker 2: didn't against the Bengals, he basically didn't run, you know,

468
00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:51,919
Speaker 2: and then he didn't run the week before he finally

469
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:53,680
Speaker 2: looked healthy against Eagles. But then you have a buy.

470
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:56,600
Speaker 2: So I think that buy is going to serve him. Well.

471
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 2: You can get some of the timing down on offense,

472
00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:02,280
Speaker 2: and where I think that they can really exploit the

473
00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 2: Steelers on Sunday is Lamar running the ball, which then

474
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:08,440
Speaker 2: opens up the passing game. So his running for a

475
00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:10,760
Speaker 2: couple of games being down doesn't open up the passing

476
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:12,399
Speaker 2: of the middle. But this is where the Steeers are

477
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:15,879
Speaker 2: really gonna miss Bush because now who you have in

478
00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:18,359
Speaker 2: there is Robert Spelane and I know he made that

479
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:21,600
Speaker 2: tackle on Derrick Henry, but now you got Vince Williams

480
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:24,920
Speaker 2: and Robert Splain in the middle as your linebackers. And yes,

481
00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:27,840
Speaker 2: Steeers can get elite press pressure, but you're gonna see

482
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:30,960
Speaker 2: not only design draws for Jackson up the middle to

483
00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:34,320
Speaker 2: exploit those linebackers. You're gonna see him just take the

484
00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 2: ball when he's getting pressure off the edge. He's gonna

485
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 2: juke the shit out of Robert Splaine and Vince Williams

486
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:43,359
Speaker 2: all day. I hope they get Dobbins more involved for

487
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:46,240
Speaker 2: his speed too. But I think this is where the

488
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:49,120
Speaker 2: Steeers are really gonna miss Bush this game. I think

489
00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 2: the Steelers have been completely overvalued by everyone for this start,

490
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:56,600
Speaker 2: and they they're undefeated and I wasn't even that high

491
00:24:56,640 --> 00:25:00,119
Speaker 2: on the as everyone on the Titans. So I'm the

492
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,360
Speaker 2: win was pretty lucky and they get a field goal

493
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:04,399
Speaker 2: miss at the end. Look, the Steelers, I have is

494
00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:06,919
Speaker 2: the third best team in the FC, so I mean

495
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 2: they're a good team, they're a playoff team, but they're

496
00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:13,560
Speaker 2: still in my opinion, four points worse than the Ravens

497
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:16,399
Speaker 2: on a neutral field. So take the Ravens getting a

498
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:20,000
Speaker 2: buye off of a bye, take the Ravens now at home,

499
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:22,160
Speaker 2: and you're gonna get somewhere in the ballpark of five

500
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 2: eighty six, which is where I have it at. So

501
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:26,159
Speaker 2: anything a four under I'll take. These games tend to

502
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 2: get the side of by three or four points. So

503
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 2: if you can find a three, if you want to

504
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:32,160
Speaker 2: throw a money line with someone you like, I wouldn't

505
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 2: hate that. I was just dying for three and I

506
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 2: got it at minus one twenty five. Would I would

507
00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:39,040
Speaker 2: buy up to I would pay up to minus one

508
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:41,399
Speaker 2: thirty for the three in the spot. So yeah, I

509
00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:44,879
Speaker 2: like the Ravens and uh look out for an in Gackway.

510
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:46,880
Speaker 2: I'm gonna this is my call the week in Gockway

511
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:49,639
Speaker 2: force turnover. He's been a Steeler killer in the past.

512
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:51,240
Speaker 3: Completely agree.

513
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 4: This team has been raising red flags for me for

514
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:54,800
Speaker 4: weeks now.

515
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:56,040
Speaker 3: You look at their offense.

516
00:25:56,080 --> 00:26:00,480
Speaker 4: It's twenty third in early down rush success raid and

517
00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 4: thirtieth in early down pass success rate. Big Ben looks

518
00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:05,280
Speaker 4: like this is the first time he ever picked up

519
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:07,320
Speaker 4: a football in half of his throws. He's got that

520
00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 4: like weird, quirky Philip Rivers with motion, except like Rivers

521
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 4: is still efficient. You know, he throw some picks. But

522
00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:17,520
Speaker 4: I mean, the Steelers won a game last week where

523
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:18,359
Speaker 4: they had a minus.

524
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:20,360
Speaker 3: They turned it over three times in the second half,

525
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 3: they get a miss field goal.

526
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:25,000
Speaker 4: You know, they they don't really look like anything special

527
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 4: against an offense that can move the ball.

528
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:30,440
Speaker 3: You know, Titan started slow, came out flat, okay, but.

529
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:33,119
Speaker 2: And that tight Titan secondary is awful. Still doesn't have

530
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:35,399
Speaker 2: a Dori Jackson. This is the Raven secondary.

531
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:39,639
Speaker 4: Like right, Deontay Johnson gets hurt every game. He's on

532
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:41,880
Speaker 4: the injury report again, but he's also been their most

533
00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:45,439
Speaker 4: effective receiver and Jujus Smith Schuster it is, you know,

534
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:48,399
Speaker 4: defense paying more attention to him, and Big Ben's just

535
00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:50,240
Speaker 4: not quite the same Big Ben.

536
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:51,520
Speaker 3: He's disguising it well.

537
00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:55,639
Speaker 4: They're undefeated, but this is like probably the most overrated

538
00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:57,879
Speaker 4: undefeated team I remember in some time, and that's just

539
00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:00,800
Speaker 4: somebody that was extremely high in them to have a

540
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:03,920
Speaker 4: super Bowl future on them, and I believe I think

541
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 4: it was the only over I took in our win

542
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 4: total draft. So like, I'm not a person that's looking

543
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:11,880
Speaker 4: for reasons to hate the Steelers.

544
00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:14,199
Speaker 3: But this is a team to beware of.

545
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:17,560
Speaker 4: There is regression coming and they are probably going to

546
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 4: be profitable to bet against in the coming week.

547
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:21,440
Speaker 3: So love the call.

548
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:23,800
Speaker 2: The similarities to last year when the Ravens are coming

549
00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:26,119
Speaker 2: off a by against undefeated Patriots are eerie.

550
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:28,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Ravens shut

551
00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:29,919
Speaker 4: them out. I mean that's how the Steelers' offense is

552
00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:31,160
Speaker 4: playing in my opinion.

553
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:34,200
Speaker 6: I hope you're enjoying this great Action Network podcast. I

554
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:35,879
Speaker 6: want to make sure you know about the Locked On

555
00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 6: podcast network, locked On has a daily podcast on your

556
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:39,960
Speaker 6: favorite team.

557
00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:42,320
Speaker 2: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers. You are locked

558
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:43,280
Speaker 2: own of the Dallas marriage.

559
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:45,840
Speaker 3: Came Everybody to the locked on Lakers podcast.

560
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:46,120
Speaker 2: Let's Go.

561
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 6: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

562
00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:51,600
Speaker 6: know your team better than anyone and give you the

563
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:54,399
Speaker 6: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

564
00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:58,919
Speaker 6: locked on your favorite team. Subscribe to your locked on podcast.

565
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:06,199
Speaker 4: For the third pick and my second overall pick in

566
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 4: the week eight Sunday six pack, going with the New

567
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:17,399
Speaker 4: Orleans Saints minus four at Chicago and listen, this is

568
00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:19,399
Speaker 4: not usually a spot I would take the Saints in

569
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:22,600
Speaker 4: not a spot. I generally am looking for, you know,

570
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 4: nothing special going on here. They're not coming off a

571
00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:28,400
Speaker 4: loss or anything like that. I know you pointed out

572
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 4: the trend about teams coming off Monday night covering in

573
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:38,200
Speaker 4: Arizona did that, but this is just simple. Chicago can't

574
00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 4: score the football. New Orleans will probably come out a

575
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:45,240
Speaker 4: little flat, a little sloppy on the road as they do,

576
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:47,920
Speaker 4: and maybe even Chicago get to score like they did

577
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:50,720
Speaker 4: against the Rams, and I just don't think it'll be enough.

578
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 4: I think the Saints offense without Thomas and all the

579
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 4: receivers have banged up who knows, but they just keep

580
00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 4: getting it done week after week. It doesn't matter who

581
00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:01,120
Speaker 4: Drew Brees is thrown to, especially when he's got Camara.

582
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:05,239
Speaker 4: They're getting healthier on defense and a big thing. And

583
00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:07,520
Speaker 4: this is the reason I actually bet this at first.

584
00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:10,520
Speaker 4: I got this at two and a half. I believe

585
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:14,120
Speaker 4: it was like right after the game because you saw

586
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 4: Allan Robinson get banged up and get shaken up, and

587
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:18,840
Speaker 4: I thought, hey, he may enter the protocol in a

588
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:21,720
Speaker 4: short week. Well he's in the concussion protocol on a

589
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:23,840
Speaker 4: short week, no guarantee to get clear.

590
00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:26,400
Speaker 3: And if he doesn't get cleared, Anyone.

591
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:30,040
Speaker 4: Who read my breakdown of Rams Bears Monday Night Football,

592
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:33,320
Speaker 4: you know, talked about just going ham on the unders

593
00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 4: because Chicago's offense is all Alan Robinson. I mean, you

594
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:41,760
Speaker 4: take Allan Robinson off that offense and they're gaining nothing

595
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:44,719
Speaker 4: with passing or rushing essentially, Like this is he's the

596
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 4: one guy that they can reliably get like seven seven

597
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 4: and a half yards per play with even the receivers

598
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:52,719
Speaker 4: they're all you know in like the six and the

599
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 4: five and the sixes and the fives and the running

600
00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:58,280
Speaker 4: back is is at three point nine or something I

601
00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:01,600
Speaker 4: think below that is Montgomery, Like, this is a bad

602
00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:05,400
Speaker 4: offense that is going to struggle to score the football

603
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 4: against any team at this point if Alan Robinson is out,

604
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:11,280
Speaker 4: even if he's missing practice all week, just a bad

605
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:15,120
Speaker 4: situation for the Bears. So this is not like, oh

606
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:17,400
Speaker 4: it's a Saints smash spot. I do think you might

607
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 4: have to sweat this one. It would be a little sloppy.

608
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:23,160
Speaker 4: But I like the Saints coming up going up against

609
00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:25,240
Speaker 4: this Bears team that it's all on one side of

610
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 4: the ball for them.

611
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:27,800
Speaker 3: It's just all on one side of the ball. And

612
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 3: that's not.

613
00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:32,000
Speaker 4: Gonna be enough against the Saints, who have remained pretty efficient,

614
00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 4: and we're actually decently efficient against that Panthers team to

615
00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:38,920
Speaker 4: put up what was a thirty one in that game.

616
00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 4: So give me the Saints minus four on the road

617
00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:43,200
Speaker 4: in Chicago.

618
00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean without I will say with the Saints,

619
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:50,360
Speaker 2: without Russell Douglas for the Panthers, the Panthers basically just

620
00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 2: sat in his zone the entire game and did nothing else.

621
00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:56,360
Speaker 2: You don't want to do that against Drew Brees. But yeah,

622
00:30:56,400 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 2: I look at this game. It's the Bears offense is

623
00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:01,440
Speaker 2: really bad in so many different ways. I mean, their

624
00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 2: offensive line is really bad. Nick Foles is really bad.

625
00:31:04,720 --> 00:31:07,800
Speaker 2: He's just like a little smarter and more situationally aware

626
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:12,880
Speaker 2: than Mitch Trubisky. But like, talent wise, it's basically just

627
00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:16,560
Speaker 2: have the same quarterback. Talent wise, they can't run the ball,

628
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 2: and you know, their best they're only like really scary receiver.

629
00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:22,800
Speaker 2: You know, Mooney maybe can get by a defense once

630
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:25,840
Speaker 2: or twice, but they're only legitimate receiver is probably gonna

631
00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:27,560
Speaker 2: be out this week in Alan Robinson. But then I

632
00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:29,760
Speaker 2: look on the other side of the ball at the

633
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 2: Saints with Callaway, who played well last week. Because Sanders

634
00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 2: is out for COVID, he might come back Sunday, but

635
00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:37,720
Speaker 2: I mean the first day's eligible to return is Sunday

636
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:40,720
Speaker 2: if he's asymptomatic. But then he wouldn't have practiced. I

637
00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:42,640
Speaker 2: don't know what's going on, Michael Thomas. I think there's

638
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:44,800
Speaker 2: something else going on. Like you hear these rumors like

639
00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:47,400
Speaker 2: he's gonna get traded, and then there's a different injury

640
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:49,840
Speaker 2: every week. I mean, he didn't practice the end of today.

641
00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:54,440
Speaker 2: It's like Deontay Harris and and and Smith are the

642
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:58,400
Speaker 2: only two other receivers on their roster. Like Camara and Cook,

643
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:00,680
Speaker 2: their tight ends are you know, That's how they're gonna

644
00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:02,440
Speaker 2: have to move the ball. These are also two top

645
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:05,760
Speaker 2: ten rush defenses. The Bears rush explosive of this defense

646
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:08,400
Speaker 2: has been awful. They're dead last and rush explosive this cloud.

647
00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:10,960
Speaker 2: That's mainly because their linebackers have missed a lot of tackles.

648
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:15,280
Speaker 2: That's rush exposiveness usually random and small sample sizes. Defense

649
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:17,200
Speaker 2: is fine on the Bear side. These are two top

650
00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 2: ten run defenses. These are top to top ten overall defenses.

651
00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:23,840
Speaker 2: There's gonna be twenty five mile hour wins. I trust

652
00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 2: the Stains all. I trust Breeze more. But to me,

653
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:29,920
Speaker 2: and I would have laid three, but now four I can't.

654
00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 2: But to me, just just give me the under. I

655
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:34,120
Speaker 2: don't know who. I don't know who's scoring. Who's scoring

656
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:37,400
Speaker 2: twenty four points in this game? I don't know. Yeah,

657
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:40,080
Speaker 2: maybe the same defense. But like the Bears, blake calling

658
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:42,560
Speaker 2: is so bad too. So yeah, I think it's Saints

659
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:44,800
Speaker 2: or nothing. There's just not enough value for me at four.

660
00:32:44,880 --> 00:32:46,360
Speaker 2: I would have loved to have two and a half

661
00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 2: with you or three. I saw it too come through

662
00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:53,160
Speaker 2: and I should have taken it. If it gets the six,

663
00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:55,000
Speaker 2: I would take the Bears. And what this should be

664
00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:57,000
Speaker 2: a really low scoring game. If it gets back to three,

665
00:32:57,400 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 2: I will take the Saints. If not, it's just an

666
00:32:59,000 --> 00:32:59,680
Speaker 2: underplay for me.

667
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:01,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like the under, but I kind of missed

668
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:03,880
Speaker 4: out on that boat. Like it's down to it's like

669
00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:07,120
Speaker 4: forty three now, and it's it's kind of my limit.

670
00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 3: So but yeah, the Bears just it's just simple.

671
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:13,800
Speaker 4: I don't expect them to score points or move the football. So, uh,

672
00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:17,000
Speaker 4: the Saints could win this game, you know, thirteen to

673
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:17,880
Speaker 4: six for all I care.

674
00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, And just to throw in something else for the under,

675
00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:26,520
Speaker 2: its situation neutral scenarios. The Saints their snail the thirtieth

676
00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:29,920
Speaker 2: in the NFL in pace and the Bears are twenty eighth,

677
00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:32,800
Speaker 2: So and you're gonna have all the receivers out that

678
00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:34,680
Speaker 2: you're not gonna have either one of these teams going

679
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:40,880
Speaker 2: really fast, all right? For the fourth pick in the

680
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:45,520
Speaker 2: Sunday six pack and my second pick overall, Look, I

681
00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:48,480
Speaker 2: like some wind unders this week. I love the Ravens.

682
00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:52,480
Speaker 2: I like some teasers. I like the Thursday night over

683
00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:56,960
Speaker 2: and then it was slim Pickens, but I did for

684
00:33:57,080 --> 00:34:01,040
Speaker 2: my second pick I did end up playing Vikings plus

685
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:05,600
Speaker 2: seven minus one fifteen at at MGM. I make this

686
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:08,640
Speaker 2: a touch over five. I wouldn't play it at six

687
00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:11,000
Speaker 2: and a half. So make sure you get seven again

688
00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:13,560
Speaker 2: it's seven or three. I would you can pay to

689
00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:15,759
Speaker 2: buy onto the seven or you know with seven, I'd

690
00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:18,160
Speaker 2: pay up the minus one twenty three minus one twenty five.

691
00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:19,319
Speaker 2: In general, can you.

692
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:21,799
Speaker 4: Yeah, keep explaining that for the people, like a little more,

693
00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 4: because I think we get a lot of questions. I

694
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:26,000
Speaker 4: know I do, and I know we do on the

695
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:30,319
Speaker 4: pop for the pod just about like what exactly how

696
00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:33,520
Speaker 4: do you decide on those thresholds and which numbers that

697
00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:35,240
Speaker 4: you want to pay up for and how much.

698
00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:37,239
Speaker 2: I'll go into it in depth if you just click,

699
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:40,280
Speaker 2: if you just search on Google Action Network or Stucky

700
00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 2: Tips for beginners NFL betters, just that it'll come up

701
00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:47,440
Speaker 2: and I'll talk about like the key numbers. But you

702
00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:50,640
Speaker 2: basically never want to buy points even a half point

703
00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:54,640
Speaker 2: in the NFL. Never on totals. You know, maybe a

704
00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:57,240
Speaker 2: half point up to minus one fifteen onto a key number,

705
00:34:57,640 --> 00:35:01,120
Speaker 2: but in general avoided on totals and then on sides.

706
00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:05,239
Speaker 2: You never want to buy any points onto a non

707
00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:08,080
Speaker 2: key number like buying some Buying an underdog from four

708
00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 2: and a half to five makes zero sense because the

709
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:13,480
Speaker 2: amount of games that actually hit on five are not

710
00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:15,000
Speaker 2: worth it compared to what you have to pay to

711
00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:18,040
Speaker 2: get onto that five. Now, with a three, which is

712
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:21,440
Speaker 2: the most common outcome, and a seven, which is next,

713
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:25,120
Speaker 2: it does make sense to actually buy on to a

714
00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:27,320
Speaker 2: three or a seven or buy off. So if you

715
00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:29,399
Speaker 2: have a favorite that's minus three and you can get

716
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:31,480
Speaker 2: a cheaper at minus two and a half, it does

717
00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:34,040
Speaker 2: make sense. For seven, it's like up to minus one

718
00:35:34,120 --> 00:35:36,440
Speaker 2: twenty For a three it's minus one twenty five. Non

719
00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:39,520
Speaker 2: exact science, those are good general rules of thumb. Also,

720
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:42,360
Speaker 2: keep in mind that you know, and just like with teasers,

721
00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:46,360
Speaker 2: if the total is lower, buying onto those key numbers

722
00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:49,400
Speaker 2: is even more valuable. So if the total you know

723
00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:53,120
Speaker 2: is forty one, buying on or off of a three

724
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:56,000
Speaker 2: or even a seven is much more valuable than doing

725
00:35:56,080 --> 00:35:58,239
Speaker 2: it when the total is fifty eight, when points are

726
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:01,160
Speaker 2: just going to be you know, coming out will so

727
00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 2: keep that in mind as well, but just start Stucky

728
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 2: Action Network beginners. I'll tweet it out too, and there's

729
00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:08,520
Speaker 2: a big ten ten tips and one of them is

730
00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:13,320
Speaker 2: about buying points and the most frequent distribution frequency distribution

731
00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:16,480
Speaker 2: of point total points and point margins in the NFL.

732
00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:19,440
Speaker 2: But for my second pick, I'm going with the Minnesota Vikings.

733
00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:23,799
Speaker 2: It's scary. They got destroyed on defense and week one

734
00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:27,920
Speaker 2: against the Packers. Look, I mean, and they traded in Gockway,

735
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:30,200
Speaker 2: but they didn't have in Gotway. Then didel Hunter they

736
00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:32,799
Speaker 2: put on ir He's done for the year. They didn't

737
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:35,520
Speaker 2: have him then either, you can't expect much pressure here.

738
00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:38,080
Speaker 2: Fac dr should be back, and Rogers is gonna have

739
00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 2: a clean pocket. Most likely, we'll see if Zimmer can

740
00:36:41,200 --> 00:36:44,000
Speaker 2: cook up some blitzes. It's the only way they're ever

741
00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:46,160
Speaker 2: going to get the Rogers because under a clean pocket,

742
00:36:46,160 --> 00:36:47,720
Speaker 2: he's been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL

743
00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:51,080
Speaker 2: this year. But the Packers are just I still there's

744
00:36:51,160 --> 00:36:55,640
Speaker 2: still every single week this team has gotten so fortunate.

745
00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:59,080
Speaker 2: I can't even begin to explain it. They every week,

746
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:03,200
Speaker 2: everyone's corners get hurt. Last week, Roby, the shadow corner

747
00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:06,120
Speaker 2: for the Texans, gets hurt on the second play of

748
00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:09,120
Speaker 2: the game and I was our colleague who I love

749
00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:11,759
Speaker 2: and is a brilliant person. Matt Freeman is tweeting out

750
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:16,239
Speaker 2: Reggie Roby as a shadow corner. Ha ha ha. I'm like,

751
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:17,960
Speaker 2: so I responded to him like, well, this is the

752
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:23,080
Speaker 2: worst day to tweet that, Adam probably Reggie right, Yeah,

753
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:29,600
Speaker 2: Reggie Roby. Man, where did my brain pull that from? Oh? Wow,

754
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:33,799
Speaker 2: brain far there? Anyway, Bradley Roby. So he goes out

755
00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:36,279
Speaker 2: in the second snap. Now, look, if Bradley Roby was

756
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:39,880
Speaker 2: on the Ravens, he might not even start. He's not

757
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:42,600
Speaker 2: a great cornerback and I've been over this on the podcast.

758
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:46,920
Speaker 2: He's just like your average, you know, competent NFL quarterback,

759
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 2: and he's played well this year in shadow roles. But

760
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:53,440
Speaker 2: his main the main benefit of Bradley Roby is keeping

761
00:37:53,840 --> 00:37:57,360
Speaker 2: Hargreaves and the other trash corners off of number ones

762
00:37:57,880 --> 00:38:03,320
Speaker 2: because what Davante Adam did to Philip Gaines and company

763
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:08,000
Speaker 2: and Hargreaves last week is disgusting, I mean absolutely disgusting.

764
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:11,319
Speaker 2: So they benefit from that again and you know, their

765
00:38:11,360 --> 00:38:13,520
Speaker 2: best Texans best corner goes out. But I mean it's

766
00:38:13,520 --> 00:38:17,040
Speaker 2: happened all year. But mainly, you know how I'm looking

767
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:18,880
Speaker 2: at this game. I don't think Aaron Jones is gonna play,

768
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:23,760
Speaker 2: and I you know, Dalvin Cook should be back fling.

769
00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:26,800
Speaker 2: The Vikings guards should be back. You get Drew Sima

770
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 2: and Ezra Cleveland out of there. They've been among the

771
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:32,399
Speaker 2: worst guards in the NFL. And there's twenty five mile

772
00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:34,759
Speaker 2: on hour wins. That's only gonna help the Vikings here.

773
00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:37,760
Speaker 2: Justin Jefferson also didn't start in that Week one matchup.

774
00:38:38,440 --> 00:38:41,360
Speaker 2: The onus is all on. Look, the Vikings are going

775
00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:43,160
Speaker 2: to come in here off of a bye by the

776
00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 2: way worth about a half point. The Vikings are gonna

777
00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:47,920
Speaker 2: come in here. They're gonna be the ones making all

778
00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:50,560
Speaker 2: the adjustments. And I think this is just a sleepy

779
00:38:50,560 --> 00:38:54,840
Speaker 2: spot for green Bay. Yes, Rogers could Cook, but this

780
00:38:54,920 --> 00:38:57,200
Speaker 2: team's rolling. They know they are to beat Minnesota and

781
00:38:57,239 --> 00:39:00,960
Speaker 2: they have San Fran on Thursday, and you know Green

782
00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:03,960
Speaker 2: Bay wants that game. They got destroyed in the regular

783
00:39:04,000 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 2: season and then destroyed in the NFC Championship. So I

784
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:10,760
Speaker 2: think that's why they'll probably be cautious with Jones, maybe

785
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 2: one or two others. But it looks like Savage and

786
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:16,319
Speaker 2: Vic Terry should be back. But who knows. I just

787
00:39:16,360 --> 00:39:18,719
Speaker 2: think after a bye here, the green Bay defense is

788
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:21,799
Speaker 2: still not good. It's not good against the run specifically,

789
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:23,920
Speaker 2: so I think that Minnesota will be able to move

790
00:39:23,920 --> 00:39:26,399
Speaker 2: the ball on the ground in twenty five mile an hour.

791
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:29,080
Speaker 2: Wins is going to be difficult to throw, which might

792
00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:33,920
Speaker 2: help out Minnesota's corners, make the deep ball just a

793
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:38,120
Speaker 2: little less effective for rogers and an aggregate. The Minnesota

794
00:39:38,160 --> 00:39:40,520
Speaker 2: defense hasn't been a dumpster fire. If you look at

795
00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:43,160
Speaker 2: some of the advanced metrics. It's not a good defense,

796
00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:46,560
Speaker 2: but it's still a well coached defense. I think that

797
00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:48,520
Speaker 2: they'll make some adjustments based on what they saw from

798
00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:50,960
Speaker 2: green Bay, so I think they keep this within a touchdown.

799
00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:53,600
Speaker 2: I'd be surprised if they win. But off of a

800
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 2: bye green Bay with San Fran on Thursday, green Bay's

801
00:39:58,080 --> 00:39:59,840
Speaker 2: just the tat over value of the market. To me,

802
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:03,759
Speaker 2: I'm still not fully bought in. So give me the

803
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:05,040
Speaker 2: Vikings that's seven or better.

804
00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:08,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, this green Bay team is pretty much the same

805
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:11,400
Speaker 4: green Bay team it's been over you know, the last

806
00:40:11,440 --> 00:40:13,480
Speaker 4: what year and a half. Now, they are going to

807
00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 4: struggle when they can't when when defenses get pressured, they're

808
00:40:16,680 --> 00:40:19,480
Speaker 4: gonna put up points otherwise, but they're still gonna kind

809
00:40:19,520 --> 00:40:22,280
Speaker 4: of look shaky at times doing it because their defense

810
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:25,080
Speaker 4: isn't good. So, uh, you know, I don't I don't

811
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:27,959
Speaker 4: hate to pick. I do worry about like a bad

812
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:32,480
Speaker 4: Cousins game, he's notoriously kind of falling flat against these

813
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:34,920
Speaker 4: Packers for you know, they kind of just kind of

814
00:40:34,920 --> 00:40:37,880
Speaker 4: a similar quarterback in many ways is Kirk Cousins.

815
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:40,040
Speaker 3: But you're getting a pretty you're.

816
00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:42,800
Speaker 4: Getting pretty good value here with the line at seven

817
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:46,560
Speaker 4: at bet MGM, the official odds provider of the podcast,

818
00:40:46,560 --> 00:40:48,880
Speaker 4: because I've seen it down to six six and a

819
00:40:48,920 --> 00:40:49,880
Speaker 4: half at some spots.

820
00:40:50,600 --> 00:40:52,520
Speaker 3: And as you mentioned there, there.

821
00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:57,320
Speaker 4: Are not really a ton of numbers jumping out after,

822
00:40:57,520 --> 00:40:59,600
Speaker 4: you know, the first couple of picks that we made.

823
00:40:59,680 --> 00:41:01,759
Speaker 2: So yeah, yeah, and I just I'll just say again

824
00:41:01,760 --> 00:41:05,440
Speaker 2: there's the stress, the wind and the situational spot vikings

825
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:08,360
Speaker 2: off of a Bye Packers with San France on Thursday.

826
00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:11,239
Speaker 2: Cook probably back Jones probably out those are all, you know,

827
00:41:11,320 --> 00:41:14,279
Speaker 2: especially the wind in the situation spot. They're equalizers here.

828
00:41:14,600 --> 00:41:16,959
Speaker 2: The wind will really hurt Green Bay a lot more

829
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:18,839
Speaker 2: so that's what really put me over the edge here

830
00:41:18,840 --> 00:41:19,560
Speaker 2: with Minnesota.

831
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:23,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, it will protect those those corners from Minnesota, because

832
00:41:23,239 --> 00:41:26,799
Speaker 4: that's that's essentially what you need to do here. But yeah,

833
00:41:26,880 --> 00:41:28,680
Speaker 4: I don't hate it at all, And yeah, you're getting

834
00:41:28,680 --> 00:41:31,280
Speaker 4: good value. And we'll see how that line moves, because

835
00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:34,080
Speaker 4: I've seen it going down on a reverse line move.

836
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:37,120
Speaker 4: Even though as I look in the app, there's you know,

837
00:41:37,360 --> 00:41:40,560
Speaker 4: pretty one sided action on the packers for the public,

838
00:41:40,640 --> 00:41:45,080
Speaker 4: so that there may indeed be some sharps on Minnesota,

839
00:41:45,120 --> 00:41:48,319
Speaker 4: the unders getting hammered as well for that wind that

840
00:41:48,400 --> 00:41:48,960
Speaker 4: you mentioned.

841
00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:51,560
Speaker 2: Presumably do you like the under also, but I played

842
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:54,040
Speaker 2: under fifty four. It's gonna go quick.

843
00:41:54,440 --> 00:41:57,560
Speaker 3: Yep, like it too, all right.

844
00:41:58,160 --> 00:42:01,680
Speaker 4: For my third and five final pick of the week,

845
00:42:01,719 --> 00:42:05,040
Speaker 4: eight Sunday six pack, I am going with the Los

846
00:42:05,040 --> 00:42:11,560
Speaker 4: Angeles Chargers minus three in Denver. And this is just

847
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:14,360
Speaker 4: going back to a bet. I'm betting on pressure. You know,

848
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:18,600
Speaker 4: sometimes in a week there are gonna be certain spots

849
00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:21,239
Speaker 4: that kind of stick off, stick out because it's a

850
00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:24,080
Speaker 4: situational spot, or maybe the mark is just you know,

851
00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:29,320
Speaker 4: outweighed waiting recency bias. But in this spot for Denver,

852
00:42:30,160 --> 00:42:32,480
Speaker 4: you know talked about this in an article a couple

853
00:42:32,480 --> 00:42:34,680
Speaker 4: of weeks ago. You know quarterbacks, we tend to learn

854
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:37,680
Speaker 4: who they are fairly quickly. And you know, Drew Locke

855
00:42:37,760 --> 00:42:39,840
Speaker 4: is a guy. He's kind of right in that threshold

856
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:42,920
Speaker 4: of you know, about three hundreds or so career dropbacks,

857
00:42:42,960 --> 00:42:44,719
Speaker 4: you know, get into about four hundred, which is when

858
00:42:44,760 --> 00:42:47,680
Speaker 4: you can really start to see see what a quarterback

859
00:42:47,719 --> 00:42:51,520
Speaker 4: is going to be. And he the numbers against pressure

860
00:42:51,320 --> 00:42:54,080
Speaker 4: are not looking good. And this Charger team they don't

861
00:42:54,080 --> 00:42:57,520
Speaker 4: have to blitz to get pressure. The Chargers are top

862
00:42:57,520 --> 00:43:01,719
Speaker 4: eight in pressure rate, and they blitzed the second fewest,

863
00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:05,400
Speaker 4: actually tied for the fewest, the lowest rate in the NFL.

864
00:43:05,560 --> 00:43:08,959
Speaker 4: Do the Chargers so they can get pressure. They got

865
00:43:09,200 --> 00:43:12,640
Speaker 4: Melvin Ingram back, which has helped a ton. You still

866
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:15,880
Speaker 4: have Bosa, you got Jones back. So the defense is

867
00:43:15,920 --> 00:43:19,719
Speaker 4: finally kind of coming rounding into form the way I

868
00:43:19,719 --> 00:43:22,600
Speaker 4: think kind of expected them to start out the season.

869
00:43:22,840 --> 00:43:25,360
Speaker 4: And then you look at Drew lock and say, okay, well,

870
00:43:25,920 --> 00:43:29,200
Speaker 4: how is he going to perform if this Charger defense

871
00:43:29,280 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 4: keeps playing, you know, with these guys back keeps playing

872
00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:35,960
Speaker 4: like this, and it's not good because he's dead last

873
00:43:36,200 --> 00:43:39,960
Speaker 4: in the NFL in passer rating under pressure twenty four

874
00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 4: point three according to Pro Football Focus, but did mention

875
00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 4: that the Chargers they'll get pressure, but they'll sit back,

876
00:43:47,560 --> 00:43:50,400
Speaker 4: they won't bitch a lot, They'll generate pressure naturally.

877
00:43:50,719 --> 00:43:51,000
Speaker 3: Well.

878
00:43:51,440 --> 00:43:54,239
Speaker 4: Drew lock is also bottom five and passer rating from

879
00:43:54,280 --> 00:43:57,400
Speaker 4: a clean pocket this year, he's been bad in pretty

880
00:43:57,440 --> 00:44:03,600
Speaker 4: much every situation imaginable. Yes, he's played a bunch of

881
00:44:03,600 --> 00:44:06,280
Speaker 4: tough matchups, so that I think that does play a part.

882
00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:10,160
Speaker 4: But you're seeing Drew out do things that. You know,

883
00:44:10,239 --> 00:44:13,719
Speaker 4: when we first saw him come into the league, it

884
00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:15,920
Speaker 4: was what gave us hope about Drew Rocke. It was, Okay,

885
00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:19,040
Speaker 4: he's he's still kind of a shaky decision maker, but

886
00:44:19,080 --> 00:44:21,280
Speaker 4: it's not really hurting him. He's not, you know, making

887
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:24,000
Speaker 4: tons of negative plays. The sacks, the picks, they're not there.

888
00:44:24,560 --> 00:44:27,800
Speaker 4: But now we're starting to see those and he's still

889
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:30,600
Speaker 4: not winning with his arm. You know, he's still a

890
00:44:30,640 --> 00:44:35,280
Speaker 4: bad thrower, he's still a bad decision maker and against

891
00:44:35,280 --> 00:44:36,880
Speaker 4: the charter defense that I don't I don't know how

892
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:41,160
Speaker 4: many people realize that they're starting to get healthy and

893
00:44:41,200 --> 00:44:44,320
Speaker 4: they always had talent. I think the Chargers are a

894
00:44:44,520 --> 00:44:46,680
Speaker 4: little bit undervalue to the market. I know Denver's a

895
00:44:46,680 --> 00:44:49,359
Speaker 4: tough place to play. So it's not like I'm saying

896
00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:54,080
Speaker 4: this is a smash spot or anything, but the struggles

897
00:44:54,080 --> 00:44:58,880
Speaker 4: of Lock with still a banged up receiving court, with

898
00:44:59,120 --> 00:45:01,440
Speaker 4: court and setting out pretty year. I think Tim Patrick,

899
00:45:01,440 --> 00:45:04,279
Speaker 4: who Rock's been having the most success with, he's he's

900
00:45:04,360 --> 00:45:08,040
Speaker 4: questionable to go. You got back, I like, okawe bu Nam,

901
00:45:08,120 --> 00:45:11,520
Speaker 4: but Lock is simply, you know, a bolow average passer

902
00:45:11,560 --> 00:45:14,640
Speaker 4: going against I think with ingram back and above average defense.

903
00:45:14,680 --> 00:45:16,280
Speaker 4: And then you go on the other side and you say, okay,

904
00:45:16,880 --> 00:45:19,920
Speaker 4: justin Herbert. Now we're starting to get some sample size

905
00:45:19,960 --> 00:45:24,200
Speaker 4: on him. It's not a ton, but it's very promising,

906
00:45:24,280 --> 00:45:27,360
Speaker 4: and it's promising it enough for him to simply for

907
00:45:27,480 --> 00:45:31,320
Speaker 4: the Chargers to simply I think outscore the Broncos, who,

908
00:45:31,480 --> 00:45:33,719
Speaker 4: by the way, you look at Drew Rocks starts and

909
00:45:33,760 --> 00:45:35,799
Speaker 4: this is what I've always been skeptical on him. Last

910
00:45:35,880 --> 00:45:38,520
Speaker 4: year he went four and one and everyone's like, oh yeah,

911
00:45:38,640 --> 00:45:40,719
Speaker 4: Drew Rock like anointing him, and I said, you know,

912
00:45:41,080 --> 00:45:42,319
Speaker 4: you might want to hold up a little bit.

913
00:45:42,360 --> 00:45:43,120
Speaker 3: It's gonna be tough.

914
00:45:43,760 --> 00:45:46,640
Speaker 4: Obviously the injury didn't help this year, but they're only

915
00:45:46,680 --> 00:45:49,320
Speaker 4: averaging twenty points per game in those four wins in

916
00:45:49,920 --> 00:45:52,799
Speaker 4: his five starts last year, so they were winning a

917
00:45:52,800 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 4: lot of games, you know, ugly, and while they could

918
00:45:56,120 --> 00:45:57,320
Speaker 4: do that against these Chargers.

919
00:45:57,680 --> 00:45:59,799
Speaker 3: I think Herbert is a complete game changer.

920
00:45:59,560 --> 00:46:02,800
Speaker 4: Because we know that quarterback is the most important position

921
00:46:02,840 --> 00:46:05,880
Speaker 4: to have the advantage on this Broncos team with Locke

922
00:46:06,120 --> 00:46:09,719
Speaker 4: this season, fourteen twenty one in the game he gets

923
00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:13,240
Speaker 4: hurt and that's the game he gets hurt. Then eighteen

924
00:46:13,600 --> 00:46:16,040
Speaker 4: and sixteen, so this year they haven't even scored twenty

925
00:46:16,040 --> 00:46:19,239
Speaker 4: points in a game that lot finished. Yet it's been

926
00:46:19,280 --> 00:46:21,960
Speaker 4: a struggle for him and them to generate offense. And

927
00:46:22,000 --> 00:46:25,400
Speaker 4: then in Herbert, he's top ten and pretty much all

928
00:46:25,440 --> 00:46:29,560
Speaker 4: the key passing metrics right now. You know, Keenan Allen's healthy,

929
00:46:30,000 --> 00:46:33,560
Speaker 4: Mike Williams is healthy, got the full compliments aside from

930
00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:36,240
Speaker 4: he's still got issues on the old line, so that's

931
00:46:36,280 --> 00:46:36,799
Speaker 4: something to watch.

932
00:46:36,840 --> 00:46:39,120
Speaker 3: But that's the thing Herbert has been He can run it.

933
00:46:39,160 --> 00:46:40,040
Speaker 3: He's been making up for that.

934
00:46:40,200 --> 00:46:43,279
Speaker 4: So give me the team with the better quarterback and

935
00:46:43,320 --> 00:46:46,880
Speaker 4: the defense get in there, even though we're in a

936
00:46:46,920 --> 00:46:48,960
Speaker 4: tough spot in Mile High.

937
00:46:49,120 --> 00:46:51,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, one thing I'll say, I don't know if it's

938
00:46:51,520 --> 00:46:54,360
Speaker 2: this week, but there is a week coming where Herbert

939
00:46:54,440 --> 00:46:57,360
Speaker 2: is going to have a vomit game number one. You know,

940
00:46:57,360 --> 00:46:59,719
Speaker 2: he's a rookie, but it's going to be against someone

941
00:46:59,760 --> 00:47:03,680
Speaker 2: who throws maybe a lot of confusing zone looks against him.

942
00:47:03,760 --> 00:47:06,440
Speaker 2: He struggled immensely against zones in college. You know, he

943
00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:10,040
Speaker 2: went against it was against Arizona State, and people were like,

944
00:47:10,120 --> 00:47:11,759
Speaker 2: he's not going to be drafted. Now he's like a

945
00:47:11,800 --> 00:47:14,920
Speaker 2: primetime game everyone sawid is when Oregon lost to Arizona

946
00:47:14,920 --> 00:47:17,040
Speaker 2: State late in the year and he was playing against

947
00:47:17,040 --> 00:47:19,480
Speaker 2: their three, three five, and it's just gonna happen. Actually,

948
00:47:19,520 --> 00:47:21,359
Speaker 2: he's a rookie, so I don't know if it's this week,

949
00:47:21,400 --> 00:47:23,040
Speaker 2: but I mean, it's not like Drew Locke has been great,

950
00:47:23,040 --> 00:47:24,799
Speaker 2: but and I'm curious to see what's gonna happen here

951
00:47:24,800 --> 00:47:28,880
Speaker 2: with Denver's defense, and they're playing really well despite all

952
00:47:28,880 --> 00:47:31,960
Speaker 2: the injuries, despite not having von Miller. You know, you

953
00:47:32,040 --> 00:47:35,760
Speaker 2: got aj Boy back now you have you know without

954
00:47:35,880 --> 00:47:38,560
Speaker 2: you still have Chubb you know coming off and Reid

955
00:47:38,640 --> 00:47:41,040
Speaker 2: coming off the other edge. They're getting some pressure there.

956
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:44,680
Speaker 2: Their interior defensive line parts are playing pretty well. You

957
00:47:44,760 --> 00:47:46,880
Speaker 2: like Johnson at linebacker. They have really good safeties, but

958
00:47:46,880 --> 00:47:49,279
Speaker 2: most importantly, they're not letting anything behind them. So that's

959
00:47:49,280 --> 00:47:51,560
Speaker 2: one of the things that I'm interested to see. I mean,

960
00:47:51,600 --> 00:47:54,359
Speaker 2: their third and pass explosiveness on defense, and that's there's

961
00:47:54,440 --> 00:47:57,200
Speaker 2: just the staple of the Fangio defense, and that's really

962
00:47:57,200 --> 00:48:00,480
Speaker 2: where Herbert has been making his living on these deep balls.

963
00:48:00,800 --> 00:48:04,239
Speaker 2: And look, the charters are playing completely different than I

964
00:48:04,320 --> 00:48:07,240
Speaker 2: projected at the play with Tyron Taylor. They're playing fast

965
00:48:07,280 --> 00:48:09,880
Speaker 2: their third in situational neutral pace. They're throwing it on

966
00:48:10,000 --> 00:48:12,919
Speaker 2: third on first down, they're throwing it deep on first down,

967
00:48:12,920 --> 00:48:15,640
Speaker 2: and that's when Herbert's having his most success. So credit

968
00:48:15,680 --> 00:48:19,080
Speaker 2: to Anthony Lynn and company for making those adjustments. But

969
00:48:19,760 --> 00:48:21,799
Speaker 2: will Herbert have one of those days if Denver just

970
00:48:21,800 --> 00:48:26,279
Speaker 2: takes everything away from him deep and confuses him up

971
00:48:26,320 --> 00:48:29,320
Speaker 2: front and gets some pressure against a shaky offensive line.

972
00:48:29,560 --> 00:48:32,160
Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't trust Drew Locke enough to

973
00:48:32,200 --> 00:48:35,719
Speaker 2: bet the Broncos here, I don't think so, and I

974
00:48:35,719 --> 00:48:37,880
Speaker 2: want to bet the under, but I could see a

975
00:48:37,880 --> 00:48:40,280
Speaker 2: lot of turnovers and the Charter's just playing so fast

976
00:48:40,360 --> 00:48:42,719
Speaker 2: it's not gonna be any wind, So you might be

977
00:48:42,760 --> 00:48:43,680
Speaker 2: on your own on that game.

978
00:48:44,160 --> 00:48:45,520
Speaker 3: Buy in on these guys now.

979
00:48:45,680 --> 00:48:49,319
Speaker 4: Buy in on these rookies now because you look at

980
00:48:49,360 --> 00:48:51,520
Speaker 4: Herbert and just watching play, you can look at the

981
00:48:51,560 --> 00:48:53,799
Speaker 4: numbers as well. And they played a tough schedule too,

982
00:48:53,800 --> 00:48:56,520
Speaker 4: by the way, you know, they've been no easy sweating.

983
00:48:57,040 --> 00:49:00,319
Speaker 4: But he's got something to him, like to the where

984
00:49:00,320 --> 00:49:03,000
Speaker 4: you're like this, like this dude could be better than

985
00:49:03,080 --> 00:49:05,319
Speaker 4: Joe Burrow, Like he could be even though he's taken

986
00:49:05,360 --> 00:49:06,239
Speaker 4: over for him, he could be better.

987
00:49:06,600 --> 00:49:07,720
Speaker 3: Like that's how good he's.

988
00:49:07,560 --> 00:49:11,200
Speaker 4: Playing right now. He's hitting, he's hitting touchdowns down the field.

989
00:49:11,280 --> 00:49:14,000
Speaker 4: You know, he's showing you know, he's showing everything it

990
00:49:14,280 --> 00:49:19,360
Speaker 4: takes to be an excellent NFL quarterback. So and and

991
00:49:20,000 --> 00:49:22,279
Speaker 4: this actually makes me not like the Charges a little bit.

992
00:49:22,719 --> 00:49:24,800
Speaker 4: But you look at the Chargers and the Bengals combine

993
00:49:24,840 --> 00:49:26,799
Speaker 4: ten and three against the spread this year. Buy these

994
00:49:26,840 --> 00:49:30,680
Speaker 4: guys well, you can, because once the hype really starts

995
00:49:30,719 --> 00:49:33,680
Speaker 4: ratcheting up, uh, you know, they're go we're gonna start

996
00:49:33,680 --> 00:49:34,880
Speaker 4: getting inflated numbers.

997
00:49:35,200 --> 00:49:38,000
Speaker 3: Right now, drew Out just not playing well, the offense

998
00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:38,680
Speaker 3: not playing well.

999
00:49:38,719 --> 00:49:42,000
Speaker 4: There's issues in Denver, you know there coach Shelby Harris

1000
00:49:42,080 --> 00:49:43,680
Speaker 4: arguing with the with the coach, and I think he

1001
00:49:43,760 --> 00:49:46,600
Speaker 4: pops up on the injury report, so I'm just bpying. Well,

1002
00:49:46,640 --> 00:49:48,480
Speaker 4: I'm just buying on the Chargers. Well, well, I still

1003
00:49:48,520 --> 00:49:50,759
Speaker 4: can't remember. We talked about the Bucks, like, you know,

1004
00:49:51,000 --> 00:49:53,080
Speaker 4: buy them is that small favorite last week because you

1005
00:49:53,200 --> 00:49:55,080
Speaker 4: never know they you know, they might blow.

1006
00:49:55,000 --> 00:49:56,520
Speaker 3: Him out and then we don't get them this cheap.

1007
00:49:56,600 --> 00:50:00,000
Speaker 4: So I kind of taking that that that uh philosophy

1008
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:00,839
Speaker 4: the charge as well.

1009
00:50:01,160 --> 00:50:02,080
Speaker 2: Great points there.

1010
00:50:03,480 --> 00:50:06,160
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1027
00:51:00,040 --> 00:51:02,800
Speaker 2: All right, for my third pick and the sixth pick

1028
00:51:03,200 --> 00:51:07,719
Speaker 2: of the Sunday six pack, hold your Nose Special, I'm

1029
00:51:07,800 --> 00:51:12,320
Speaker 2: going with the how about them Dallas Cowboys? Oh no,

1030
00:51:12,480 --> 00:51:20,200
Speaker 2: Jim eight, this is Look, it's slim pickings. I show

1031
00:51:20,280 --> 00:51:24,919
Speaker 2: value in this number. I'm assuming Ben de Nucci's playing too. Look,

1032
00:51:24,960 --> 00:51:26,640
Speaker 2: I mean people are like, how much would drop off

1033
00:51:26,719 --> 00:51:29,399
Speaker 2: visit from Dalton Deducci? I don't think it's that much.

1034
00:51:29,480 --> 00:51:32,400
Speaker 2: You couldn't be playing for any worse than Dalton, So like,

1035
00:51:32,719 --> 00:51:35,480
Speaker 2: what could d Nucci possibly do worse than Dalton was doing?

1036
00:51:35,840 --> 00:51:36,440
Speaker 3: I mean, wristen.

1037
00:51:36,640 --> 00:51:39,239
Speaker 4: I had been banging the drum and I felt like

1038
00:51:39,280 --> 00:51:40,200
Speaker 4: I was on an island.

1039
00:51:40,400 --> 00:51:41,600
Speaker 3: I was like, don't.

1040
00:51:41,640 --> 00:51:43,920
Speaker 4: I was like betting against the Cowboys and bet they're unders,

1041
00:51:44,160 --> 00:51:46,440
Speaker 4: like we got three. People were like, I'm on the over.

1042
00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:49,160
Speaker 4: I like the Cowboy I don't know, like this Andy

1043
00:51:49,200 --> 00:51:52,200
Speaker 4: Dallon's just not good. But more importantly, he's not good

1044
00:51:52,239 --> 00:51:53,719
Speaker 4: when he doesn't have a good O line. So I

1045
00:51:53,719 --> 00:51:56,719
Speaker 4: do agree with you on that, Like, there's really not

1046
00:51:56,920 --> 00:52:00,560
Speaker 4: much worse you can get. And in Philadelphia it's.

1047
00:52:00,440 --> 00:52:04,120
Speaker 2: Not been good. No, I mean, Philly stinks, so that's

1048
00:52:04,200 --> 00:52:06,759
Speaker 2: part of it. I mean, look, I've dropped the Cowboys

1049
00:52:07,560 --> 00:52:10,600
Speaker 2: over a touchdown eight eight and a half, eight and

1050
00:52:10,600 --> 00:52:12,600
Speaker 2: a half points since the start of the year. Obviously,

1051
00:52:12,640 --> 00:52:15,000
Speaker 2: they lost Dak and they've had a lot of other injuries,

1052
00:52:15,040 --> 00:52:17,880
Speaker 2: and some people have told me that's too little, and

1053
00:52:17,920 --> 00:52:20,360
Speaker 2: they might be argued that this Dallas team might be

1054
00:52:20,360 --> 00:52:23,759
Speaker 2: the second worst in the NFL. I don't have them

1055
00:52:23,760 --> 00:52:26,640
Speaker 2: that low, but I could see it. This is a

1056
00:52:26,680 --> 00:52:28,680
Speaker 2: fade on and I said in the NFC East, all

1057
00:52:28,680 --> 00:52:31,320
Speaker 2: these teams just take if you're getting four more, take it.

1058
00:52:31,320 --> 00:52:33,040
Speaker 2: If you're getting seven or more, take it. They're all

1059
00:52:33,080 --> 00:52:35,360
Speaker 2: so bad. The Eagles should not be laying seven and

1060
00:52:35,400 --> 00:52:37,560
Speaker 2: a half. They still have issues on the offensive line,

1061
00:52:37,600 --> 00:52:40,560
Speaker 2: their defense isn't playing great. The Cowboys should at least

1062
00:52:40,600 --> 00:52:42,680
Speaker 2: get Martin back and might get Looney back on the

1063
00:52:42,680 --> 00:52:46,120
Speaker 2: offensive line. Ouzia. They might get back, they should get

1064
00:52:46,160 --> 00:52:48,640
Speaker 2: back a corner. He's not the greatest corn in the NFL,

1065
00:52:48,680 --> 00:52:50,840
Speaker 2: but he will help based on what they have right now.

1066
00:52:51,160 --> 00:52:53,960
Speaker 2: Maybe Sean Lee comes back. But more importantly, I just

1067
00:52:53,960 --> 00:52:56,040
Speaker 2: think it's the ultimate by love spot. Look, the Cowboys

1068
00:52:56,040 --> 00:52:57,839
Speaker 2: are ozer and seven against the spread. First I win

1069
00:52:57,920 --> 00:53:00,960
Speaker 2: seven against the spending the two thousand and five Dolphins.

1070
00:53:01,360 --> 00:53:03,160
Speaker 2: One of the things I do like coming out of

1071
00:53:03,239 --> 00:53:07,280
Speaker 2: Dallas here is they they they're trading people, they're cutting people.

1072
00:53:07,280 --> 00:53:09,439
Speaker 2: They're they're telling people, Look, you don't get a deal

1073
00:53:09,480 --> 00:53:12,080
Speaker 2: done by tomorrow, we're cutting you. So if there's ever

1074
00:53:12,239 --> 00:53:15,040
Speaker 2: a game where you're gonna get max effort from guys

1075
00:53:15,040 --> 00:53:18,840
Speaker 2: that are playing for contracts, playing for their jobs, and

1076
00:53:18,960 --> 00:53:21,759
Speaker 2: playing for first place in the division, which is I

1077
00:53:21,840 --> 00:53:24,000
Speaker 2: keep forgetting that. Like the Cowboys could like take over

1078
00:53:24,080 --> 00:53:26,439
Speaker 2: first place in the division if they win this game,

1079
00:53:26,480 --> 00:53:29,200
Speaker 2: which is the most outrageous thing to think about. So

1080
00:53:29,440 --> 00:53:33,600
Speaker 2: you'll get it here, and you know, Ben Denucci, maybe

1081
00:53:33,600 --> 00:53:35,640
Speaker 2: he brings a couple of things that the Eagles aren't

1082
00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:38,120
Speaker 2: ready for that they would have been for Dalton. I

1083
00:53:38,160 --> 00:53:40,040
Speaker 2: don't think it can get much worse. I think this

1084
00:53:40,160 --> 00:53:44,360
Speaker 2: line should have been maybe with Denucci under seven for sure,

1085
00:53:44,760 --> 00:53:48,400
Speaker 2: maybe five ish, So I'll take eight that Ben and

1086
00:53:48,480 --> 00:53:52,600
Speaker 2: Jill'll take anything over seven, smaller play, don't go crazier.

1087
00:53:52,680 --> 00:53:55,040
Speaker 2: The Cowboys still stink, but they're getting some pieces back.

1088
00:53:55,560 --> 00:53:58,120
Speaker 2: I like the Joneses. Jerry Jones is finally being like, look,

1089
00:53:58,120 --> 00:54:00,839
Speaker 2: we're gonna trade him, We're gonna change the personnel. So

1090
00:54:01,520 --> 00:54:03,160
Speaker 2: I just don't know, sn't think the Eagles team should

1091
00:54:03,160 --> 00:54:06,720
Speaker 2: be laying over seven to anyone not named the Jets

1092
00:54:06,719 --> 00:54:07,040
Speaker 2: at home.

1093
00:54:07,640 --> 00:54:09,399
Speaker 4: No, that's the right play, Like, just like the Jets

1094
00:54:09,440 --> 00:54:11,120
Speaker 4: are the right play, and then they came through last

1095
00:54:11,160 --> 00:54:13,839
Speaker 4: week for you, and you know it's it's they hold

1096
00:54:13,840 --> 00:54:15,160
Speaker 4: your nose play to the extreme.

1097
00:54:15,200 --> 00:54:18,000
Speaker 3: But you're exactly right. The Eagles have not been good.

1098
00:54:18,080 --> 00:54:20,279
Speaker 4: They shouldn't have beat the Giants, but the Giants are

1099
00:54:20,280 --> 00:54:23,359
Speaker 4: who they are, so of course the Eagles get to win.

1100
00:54:23,400 --> 00:54:26,680
Speaker 4: And this division is still alive with with pretty much

1101
00:54:26,680 --> 00:54:29,880
Speaker 4: everyone but the Giants still in contention. So uh, this

1102
00:54:30,000 --> 00:54:32,160
Speaker 4: is going to be a game that the Cowboys are

1103
00:54:32,200 --> 00:54:34,640
Speaker 4: going to show up for and I'm still expecting like

1104
00:54:34,680 --> 00:54:36,960
Speaker 4: a Zeke bounce back game at some point, Like it's

1105
00:54:37,040 --> 00:54:41,360
Speaker 4: it's harder now with no quarterback and with the U

1106
00:54:41,719 --> 00:54:44,439
Speaker 4: with you know, not really an o I but I'll

1107
00:54:44,480 --> 00:54:46,359
Speaker 4: probably be on the overs on his props. I don't

1108
00:54:46,360 --> 00:54:48,280
Speaker 4: like to bet a lout of overs, but I'm pretty

1109
00:54:48,280 --> 00:54:50,279
Speaker 4: sure it's going to be around like sixty and like

1110
00:54:50,320 --> 00:54:53,040
Speaker 4: sixty four rushing yards or something like that, which I

1111
00:54:53,080 --> 00:54:54,200
Speaker 4: mean they could give them like.

1112
00:54:54,160 --> 00:54:55,680
Speaker 3: Thirty carries just to get them there.

1113
00:54:55,760 --> 00:54:58,799
Speaker 4: So though Philly does have a good d line, but

1114
00:54:59,200 --> 00:55:01,960
Speaker 4: still this I expect the Zeke bounce back. So yeah,

1115
00:55:02,040 --> 00:55:05,520
Speaker 4: it's absolutely the right play, absolutely all right. So to

1116
00:55:05,880 --> 00:55:11,319
Speaker 4: recap the week eight Sunday six pack, Baltimore minus four,

1117
00:55:11,920 --> 00:55:18,080
Speaker 4: the Minnesota Vikings plus seven, and the Dallas Cowboys plus eight.

1118
00:55:18,120 --> 00:55:19,200
Speaker 3: Looking for their first.

1119
00:55:19,000 --> 00:55:23,319
Speaker 4: Cover on Sunday Night Football, I went with the Raiders

1120
00:55:23,360 --> 00:55:24,560
Speaker 4: plus three.

1121
00:55:24,680 --> 00:55:28,120
Speaker 3: In Cleveland, the Saints.

1122
00:55:27,200 --> 00:55:32,680
Speaker 4: Minus four at Chicago, and finish it off with the

1123
00:55:32,800 --> 00:55:36,360
Speaker 4: Chargers minus three in Denver.

1124
00:55:36,880 --> 00:55:39,919
Speaker 3: That wraps it up for our Sunday six pack.

1125
00:55:40,040 --> 00:55:43,000
Speaker 4: And I want to give you guys a special reminder,

1126
00:55:43,040 --> 00:55:47,560
Speaker 4: and that's that the Sunday six Pack account is now

1127
00:55:47,680 --> 00:55:49,920
Speaker 4: live in the Action Network app, which means if you

1128
00:55:50,000 --> 00:55:52,600
Speaker 4: missed any of the six pack or just want to

1129
00:55:52,920 --> 00:55:56,160
Speaker 4: refresher on the bets. You can go and search for

1130
00:55:56,200 --> 00:55:59,680
Speaker 4: the Sunday six Pack in the Action Network app and

1131
00:55:59,719 --> 00:56:02,799
Speaker 4: you'll see all six of the picks each and every

1132
00:56:02,840 --> 00:56:06,520
Speaker 4: week that we make on the podcast. So my producer

1133
00:56:06,560 --> 00:56:09,719
Speaker 4: Matt Mitchell made me remember to shout that out because

1134
00:56:09,760 --> 00:56:11,319
Speaker 4: I wanted to shout it out last week and I

1135
00:56:11,360 --> 00:56:12,000
Speaker 4: totally forgot.

1136
00:56:12,080 --> 00:56:14,959
Speaker 3: That's on me. But yeah, go follow the Sunday six pack.

1137
00:56:15,160 --> 00:56:15,640
Speaker 2: It's cool.

1138
00:56:15,719 --> 00:56:18,120
Speaker 4: The Action Network gap is awesome. If you haven't downloaded yet,

1139
00:56:18,400 --> 00:56:22,280
Speaker 4: go check it out. Let's get in to our favorite over.

1140
00:56:22,160 --> 00:56:24,360
Speaker 3: Underplay of the week, all right, stuck.

1141
00:56:24,440 --> 00:56:26,560
Speaker 4: So yeah, it's totals have been. I feel like a

1142
00:56:26,600 --> 00:56:28,600
Speaker 4: little more of a struggle this year. It's try to

1143
00:56:28,640 --> 00:56:29,359
Speaker 4: get on together this week.

1144
00:56:29,400 --> 00:56:29,799
Speaker 3: Where you're going.

1145
00:56:30,040 --> 00:56:33,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've already mentioned two. I mentioned the Minnesota Green

1146
00:56:33,120 --> 00:56:38,600
Speaker 2: Bay under wind Nora, but I'm gone officially with the

1147
00:56:38,640 --> 00:56:42,200
Speaker 2: Saints and Bears under no receivers, two good run defenses,

1148
00:56:42,480 --> 00:56:44,120
Speaker 2: all these receivers out. I don't know how the Bears

1149
00:56:44,160 --> 00:56:47,280
Speaker 2: are gonna score. They can't run it. Camaron Cook probably

1150
00:56:47,320 --> 00:56:48,799
Speaker 2: find a way to put points on the board for

1151
00:56:48,840 --> 00:56:51,759
Speaker 2: the Saints. I don't see this game getting to forty

1152
00:56:51,800 --> 00:56:53,560
Speaker 2: three and a half, So Saints Bears under forty three

1153
00:56:53,600 --> 00:56:55,919
Speaker 2: and a half, I bet, I'MGM, I like it.

1154
00:56:56,040 --> 00:56:58,640
Speaker 4: I will go with Steelers Ravens under forty five and

1155
00:56:58,719 --> 00:57:00,520
Speaker 4: a half. And I like for a lot of the

1156
00:57:00,560 --> 00:57:02,640
Speaker 4: reasons you like the Ravens. I think, coming off of Buy,

1157
00:57:02,719 --> 00:57:06,400
Speaker 4: their defense will be a whole different beast and it

1158
00:57:06,480 --> 00:57:09,680
Speaker 4: was already pretty good. And then you have the Steelers

1159
00:57:09,680 --> 00:57:12,280
Speaker 4: who have been overachieving like crazy on offense.

1160
00:57:12,840 --> 00:57:14,760
Speaker 3: I think the Ravens.

1161
00:57:14,360 --> 00:57:16,800
Speaker 4: Will be able to get this one to the total

1162
00:57:16,880 --> 00:57:19,320
Speaker 4: by holding the Steelers down. So forty five and a

1163
00:57:19,360 --> 00:57:22,760
Speaker 4: half is the number at bet MGM, the official adds

1164
00:57:22,840 --> 00:57:27,080
Speaker 4: provider of the Action Network podcast. So to recap, we

1165
00:57:27,200 --> 00:57:30,880
Speaker 4: have Bears, Saints under forty three and a half and

1166
00:57:31,400 --> 00:57:37,400
Speaker 4: Steelers Ravens under forty five and a half. Now let's

1167
00:57:37,440 --> 00:57:40,480
Speaker 4: get into our favorite teaser plays.

1168
00:57:40,120 --> 00:57:40,600
Speaker 3: Of the week.

1169
00:57:41,360 --> 00:57:45,800
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

1170
00:57:45,120 --> 00:57:47,720
Speaker 4: All right, For those not familiar, a teaser is when

1171
00:57:47,760 --> 00:57:50,360
Speaker 4: you combine two or more bets, and generally we do

1172
00:57:50,400 --> 00:57:53,320
Speaker 4: a six point teaser on this podcast, and those are

1173
00:57:53,360 --> 00:57:54,120
Speaker 4: the most popular.

1174
00:57:54,480 --> 00:57:57,680
Speaker 3: So, for example, if you're teasing an eight point.

1175
00:57:57,400 --> 00:58:01,800
Speaker 4: Favorite by six, they become just a two point favorite,

1176
00:58:01,960 --> 00:58:04,800
Speaker 4: so only you have to cover minus two, and then

1177
00:58:04,840 --> 00:58:07,640
Speaker 4: if you're teasing an eight point underdog, for example, they

1178
00:58:07,680 --> 00:58:10,840
Speaker 4: would become a fourteen point underdog and you would only

1179
00:58:10,880 --> 00:58:13,000
Speaker 4: need them to cover fourteen.

1180
00:58:13,360 --> 00:58:15,720
Speaker 3: Where are you going with your pick for this week?

1181
00:58:15,960 --> 00:58:18,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, ideally if you can cross the three and the seven,

1182
00:58:18,360 --> 00:58:21,680
Speaker 2: you're doing it right. So I'm going to I did

1183
00:58:21,680 --> 00:58:25,680
Speaker 2: that earlier with the Falcons and the forty nine ers.

1184
00:58:25,880 --> 00:58:28,040
Speaker 2: I think you're gonna touch on that game, but I'll

1185
00:58:28,040 --> 00:58:30,280
Speaker 2: say it again, the Seahawks can't win by more than

1186
00:58:30,320 --> 00:58:33,680
Speaker 2: one possession. Although I am a little worried about love

1187
00:58:33,760 --> 00:58:35,440
Speaker 2: Legget of that game, I'm just I'll say mine. I'm

1188
00:58:35,440 --> 00:58:37,720
Speaker 2: gonna go with the Lions plus eight and a half,

1189
00:58:38,200 --> 00:58:40,520
Speaker 2: teasing them up for two and a half. You know,

1190
00:58:40,560 --> 00:58:43,160
Speaker 2: Colt's coming off a bye, lines playing a little better now,

1191
00:58:43,440 --> 00:58:46,439
Speaker 2: getting healthier. It's a team some expected earlier in the year.

1192
00:58:46,960 --> 00:58:49,040
Speaker 2: It should go right down on the wire. And it's

1193
00:58:49,040 --> 00:58:53,200
Speaker 2: teasing against Rivers. That's you either tease Rivers as a dog,

1194
00:58:53,280 --> 00:58:55,800
Speaker 2: or you tease against them if he's a favorite. So

1195
00:58:56,280 --> 00:58:58,040
Speaker 2: I'm going with a lot this gime. Should be one posession,

1196
00:58:58,040 --> 00:59:00,000
Speaker 2: game should be close, should be a pretty good game.

1197
00:59:00,640 --> 00:59:02,840
Speaker 2: I'm teasing the Lions to plus eight and a half.

1198
00:59:03,320 --> 00:59:07,080
Speaker 2: I'm going to tease them with the Raiders plus eight

1199
00:59:07,120 --> 00:59:09,520
Speaker 2: and a half, which I mentioned earlier, teasing the teaser piece.

1200
00:59:09,600 --> 00:59:11,880
Speaker 2: So both to eight and a half and I'm getting

1201
00:59:11,920 --> 00:59:13,760
Speaker 2: over that eight. You know, these teams that are going

1202
00:59:13,800 --> 00:59:16,600
Speaker 2: for two when they score fourteen, all that jazz, I'm

1203
00:59:16,600 --> 00:59:21,680
Speaker 2: covered there. So give me the Raiders and the Lions

1204
00:59:21,720 --> 00:59:22,880
Speaker 2: both a plus eight and a half.

1205
00:59:23,480 --> 00:59:26,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like the Raiders to win outright, So I

1206
00:59:26,640 --> 00:59:27,240
Speaker 3: like to tease.

1207
00:59:27,440 --> 00:59:32,360
Speaker 4: And yes, always always like a River's fade. Although I

1208
00:59:32,360 --> 00:59:35,960
Speaker 4: didn't expect that line. Actually, I did expect that line

1209
00:59:35,960 --> 00:59:38,240
Speaker 4: to be hre is with the Colts coming off to buy,

1210
00:59:38,400 --> 00:59:41,040
Speaker 4: so didn't get to hop on that, but yeah, I

1211
00:59:41,040 --> 00:59:44,280
Speaker 4: like it. For my teaser, I am going with the

1212
00:59:44,400 --> 00:59:47,200
Speaker 4: San Francisco forty nine ers. I mean, this is, as

1213
00:59:47,240 --> 00:59:51,720
Speaker 4: you pretty much point out every week, a very obvious spot,

1214
00:59:51,880 --> 00:59:55,560
Speaker 4: because the Seahawks in fact do not win games by

1215
00:59:55,600 --> 00:59:59,240
Speaker 4: more than one possession. They did it against the Falcons

1216
00:59:59,240 --> 01:00:02,600
Speaker 4: this year thirty eight, twenty five, but then you had

1217
01:00:02,640 --> 01:00:06,400
Speaker 4: thirty five, thirty thirty eight, thirty one, thirty one, twenty three,

1218
01:00:06,480 --> 01:00:09,480
Speaker 4: and twenty seven twenty six were their other victories this year,

1219
01:00:09,520 --> 01:00:11,240
Speaker 4: and it reads much of the same if you go

1220
01:00:11,280 --> 01:00:14,560
Speaker 4: back and look at their numbers last year. So getting

1221
01:00:14,600 --> 01:00:16,800
Speaker 4: the forty nine ers plus eight and a half, you

1222
01:00:16,880 --> 01:00:18,520
Speaker 4: cover all of those spots.

1223
01:00:19,080 --> 01:00:19,480
Speaker 3: Love it.

1224
01:00:19,880 --> 01:00:22,880
Speaker 4: And for the other pick, I'll just go back to

1225
01:00:22,920 --> 01:00:26,040
Speaker 4: the Raiders. And now they are at plus three, so

1226
01:00:26,840 --> 01:00:30,400
Speaker 4: not quite as I guess you feel like excited about

1227
01:00:30,400 --> 01:00:32,840
Speaker 4: getting them as if they're at two and a half.

1228
01:00:32,880 --> 01:00:36,080
Speaker 4: But again, just like the Raiders in this spot, so

1229
01:00:36,520 --> 01:00:40,040
Speaker 4: I'll go with them with my tease piece if the

1230
01:00:40,080 --> 01:00:42,800
Speaker 4: Titans were if the Titans get to six and a half,

1231
01:00:43,120 --> 01:00:45,280
Speaker 4: I would tease them down. I like them as well,

1232
01:00:45,560 --> 01:00:47,880
Speaker 4: although I got them at five and a half and

1233
01:00:47,880 --> 01:00:50,680
Speaker 4: I'm always worried about, you know, more than six even

1234
01:00:50,680 --> 01:00:53,320
Speaker 4: in a spot I think they should smash in just

1235
01:00:53,360 --> 01:00:57,240
Speaker 4: because they can't kick. So would take the Titan, would

1236
01:00:57,240 --> 01:00:59,640
Speaker 4: tease the Titans down to a half point if they

1237
01:01:00,080 --> 01:01:02,280
Speaker 4: if they get to six and a half. But as

1238
01:01:02,320 --> 01:01:06,000
Speaker 4: for the show, going with the Niners always got to

1239
01:01:06,040 --> 01:01:08,760
Speaker 4: love it, and the Raiders.

1240
01:01:08,960 --> 01:01:11,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, and if you're teasing from three, if you're not

1241
01:01:11,640 --> 01:01:13,040
Speaker 2: going to see through three and so the next best

1242
01:01:13,080 --> 01:01:17,439
Speaker 2: thing is seazing from seven or from three up. And look,

1243
01:01:17,480 --> 01:01:20,160
Speaker 2: if you think that your line is more efficient than three,

1244
01:01:20,840 --> 01:01:24,120
Speaker 2: then teasing from three up to nine, you know, and

1245
01:01:24,160 --> 01:01:27,320
Speaker 2: you make the line lower than three is basically the

1246
01:01:27,320 --> 01:01:30,480
Speaker 2: same thing as teasing through three. And when you're teasing

1247
01:01:30,520 --> 01:01:32,920
Speaker 2: from three to nine or from two and a half

1248
01:01:33,000 --> 01:01:34,840
Speaker 2: up to eight and a half, the nine is a

1249
01:01:35,480 --> 01:01:37,160
Speaker 2: loss and the tease, so it doesn't make much of

1250
01:01:37,200 --> 01:01:39,240
Speaker 2: a difference there. So if you do really like the

1251
01:01:39,320 --> 01:01:43,360
Speaker 2: Raiders catching three already, then basically what you're doing is

1252
01:01:43,840 --> 01:01:45,880
Speaker 2: you're teasing through both of assuming that your line is

1253
01:01:45,920 --> 01:01:48,120
Speaker 2: more efficient. So I don't hate that at all. And

1254
01:01:48,160 --> 01:01:49,840
Speaker 2: by the way, I do just want to see will

1255
01:01:49,880 --> 01:01:52,360
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers. I mean, the Seahawks defense is

1256
01:01:52,360 --> 01:01:55,240
Speaker 2: just terrible. They did add Doune Lap maybe Jamal adamsy

1257
01:01:55,240 --> 01:01:57,320
Speaker 2: practice comes back and helps, but even with him, it

1258
01:01:57,360 --> 01:01:59,360
Speaker 2: was bad. The forty nine or safeties, both of them

1259
01:01:59,360 --> 01:02:03,400
Speaker 2: are questionable. They've been a little iffy against deep passes

1260
01:02:03,520 --> 01:02:06,240
Speaker 2: this year because of that, and there's no Sherman, so

1261
01:02:06,360 --> 01:02:08,280
Speaker 2: that's a little scary against the Seahawks. But again the

1262
01:02:08,280 --> 01:02:10,840
Speaker 2: forty should be able to answer, and that's basically what

1263
01:02:10,840 --> 01:02:13,560
Speaker 2: it comes down to. Put the Seahawks on primetime every week.

1264
01:02:13,600 --> 01:02:14,880
Speaker 2: All their games are thrillers.

1265
01:02:15,320 --> 01:02:20,280
Speaker 4: All right, let us get into our money line underdog.

1266
01:02:19,880 --> 01:02:26,760
Speaker 1: Parlay turning good weekends into great weekends.

1267
01:02:27,240 --> 01:02:29,800
Speaker 5: It's time for the money line parlay.

1268
01:02:31,160 --> 01:02:33,280
Speaker 3: Hey, sug we hit one. We hit one last week.

1269
01:02:33,760 --> 01:02:36,760
Speaker 4: We came through with the well was it the Lions

1270
01:02:36,880 --> 01:02:38,880
Speaker 4: getting that win at the end and then the forty

1271
01:02:38,960 --> 01:02:39,520
Speaker 4: nine ers.

1272
01:02:39,640 --> 01:02:43,400
Speaker 2: So hopefully people beautiful.

1273
01:02:43,080 --> 01:02:44,200
Speaker 3: Took advantage of that one.

1274
01:02:45,440 --> 01:02:50,200
Speaker 4: I mean the Falcons, I can't believe that they like

1275
01:02:50,240 --> 01:02:52,520
Speaker 4: they got a new coach and they're still giving away games,

1276
01:02:52,600 --> 01:02:54,880
Speaker 4: and they're giving away games in the most inexplicable fashion.

1277
01:02:54,960 --> 01:02:59,640
Speaker 3: So that was a great call with the Detroit Lions.

1278
01:02:59,680 --> 01:02:59,880
Speaker 2: There.

1279
01:03:00,080 --> 01:03:02,439
Speaker 3: Where are you going with your dog for this week?

1280
01:03:03,280 --> 01:03:05,560
Speaker 2: I'll take the miby Dolphins plus one point fifty at

1281
01:03:05,600 --> 01:03:08,480
Speaker 2: bet MGM for what it's worth. You know, the Rams

1282
01:03:08,480 --> 01:03:12,720
Speaker 2: are on a short week, traveling across the country, although

1283
01:03:13,480 --> 01:03:15,840
Speaker 2: maybe McVeigh has this traveling thing figured out. He's eight

1284
01:03:15,840 --> 01:03:17,439
Speaker 2: and two against the spread on the East Coast, six

1285
01:03:17,480 --> 01:03:19,400
Speaker 2: and one against the spread in the early time slot,

1286
01:03:19,400 --> 01:03:22,760
Speaker 2: covered by over twelve points per game. And as I

1287
01:03:22,760 --> 01:03:25,800
Speaker 2: said last week, short West short rest versus a team

1288
01:03:25,840 --> 01:03:27,560
Speaker 2: coming off of a bye week, so short rest, off

1289
01:03:27,600 --> 01:03:30,320
Speaker 2: of a Monday night playing a team coming off of

1290
01:03:30,360 --> 01:03:33,440
Speaker 2: a bye Are there thirty four fifteen to one against

1291
01:03:33,440 --> 01:03:35,560
Speaker 2: the spread? I don't know, it makes no sense. Maybe

1292
01:03:35,560 --> 01:03:39,480
Speaker 2: the market is just overvaluing the spot. But basically I

1293
01:03:39,480 --> 01:03:41,880
Speaker 2: would normally make this after adjusting for the spot, right,

1294
01:03:41,880 --> 01:03:45,080
Speaker 2: So I'll adjust for the short week. I'll you know,

1295
01:03:46,120 --> 01:03:48,640
Speaker 2: I'll downgrade the Rams a bit for that, I'll upgrade

1296
01:03:48,640 --> 01:03:51,920
Speaker 2: the Dolphins a bit for the buye and maybe just

1297
01:03:52,000 --> 01:03:54,440
Speaker 2: a hair for traveling across country. On top of that,

1298
01:03:54,800 --> 01:04:00,600
Speaker 2: I would make this line around RAMS minus two. Now

1299
01:04:00,640 --> 01:04:03,560
Speaker 2: the question becomes a right toa is now going to

1300
01:04:03,600 --> 01:04:06,440
Speaker 2: start a quarterback for Ryan Fitzpatrick? You have to assume,

1301
01:04:06,840 --> 01:04:10,360
Speaker 2: from a point spread perspective, a downgrade. Fitzpatrick was playing well,

1302
01:04:10,360 --> 01:04:12,480
Speaker 2: but mainly just a rookies' first start in the middle

1303
01:04:12,480 --> 01:04:15,520
Speaker 2: of the year. If you want to be really optimistic,

1304
01:04:15,680 --> 01:04:18,040
Speaker 2: say that he's gonna be even better. But the proven

1305
01:04:18,080 --> 01:04:19,360
Speaker 2: thing to do is to be like, ah, there's probably

1306
01:04:19,360 --> 01:04:22,280
Speaker 2: gonna be a drop off. Maybe at least initially, you

1307
01:04:22,320 --> 01:04:23,920
Speaker 2: could think that long term, as I do that it's

1308
01:04:23,960 --> 01:04:27,440
Speaker 2: going to be better quarterback play, But they're safe to

1309
01:04:27,480 --> 01:04:29,080
Speaker 2: assume that it might be some struggles early and you

1310
01:04:29,120 --> 01:04:31,720
Speaker 2: just don't know what to expect. So I would make

1311
01:04:31,760 --> 01:04:35,600
Speaker 2: this line probably around four or five, just to be safe.

1312
01:04:36,200 --> 01:04:38,960
Speaker 2: That's where the market's around three and a half. I

1313
01:04:39,040 --> 01:04:41,400
Speaker 2: could argue for many numbers. It's basically how much is

1314
01:04:41,440 --> 01:04:43,960
Speaker 2: to work we don't know, and Fitzpatrick is already a

1315
01:04:44,040 --> 01:04:47,480
Speaker 2: high variant sky hard to project. So I think that

1316
01:04:47,920 --> 01:04:52,240
Speaker 2: why you know, the Rams they've beat the NFC East

1317
01:04:52,240 --> 01:04:55,760
Speaker 2: and the Bears, so and when I look at the

1318
01:04:56,440 --> 01:04:59,560
Speaker 2: Dolphins defense, you can run all over them. They might

1319
01:04:59,600 --> 01:05:01,840
Speaker 2: be the worst run defense in the NFL, which is

1320
01:05:01,880 --> 01:05:04,360
Speaker 2: scary against the Rams. They're kind of average against short

1321
01:05:04,400 --> 01:05:07,720
Speaker 2: passes in play action. They have two really good outside corners,

1322
01:05:07,760 --> 01:05:10,880
Speaker 2: but but the Rams don't really throw deep. It's scary

1323
01:05:10,920 --> 01:05:14,040
Speaker 2: thinking about Cup in the slot. You had a big

1324
01:05:14,360 --> 01:05:18,160
Speaker 2: na oh god, not this again, Bag and A he

1325
01:05:18,200 --> 01:05:21,320
Speaker 2: got benched, and now you got Nick need him in there,

1326
01:05:21,400 --> 01:05:24,080
Speaker 2: and they've been so bad against the slot and Cup

1327
01:05:24,160 --> 01:05:26,400
Speaker 2: he lines up about half his snaps in the slot.

1328
01:05:26,400 --> 01:05:28,960
Speaker 2: But the Bills, who also can't cover slot receivers, in

1329
01:05:29,000 --> 01:05:30,920
Speaker 2: that game, he lined up in the slot like seventy

1330
01:05:30,920 --> 01:05:33,400
Speaker 2: percent of the time. And he went off. He had

1331
01:05:33,400 --> 01:05:35,360
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty yards in a touchdown, So that

1332
01:05:35,400 --> 01:05:37,480
Speaker 2: does scare me as well. But why I don't want

1333
01:05:37,520 --> 01:05:40,040
Speaker 2: to take the plus four and I'd rather take the

1334
01:05:40,080 --> 01:05:42,200
Speaker 2: money line. It's just the upside of Tua, right, So

1335
01:05:42,200 --> 01:05:45,160
Speaker 2: instead of taking the plus four, you're saying, all right,

1336
01:05:45,200 --> 01:05:47,000
Speaker 2: there could there's a chance with all the variants of

1337
01:05:47,000 --> 01:05:48,800
Speaker 2: who Fitzpatrick usually is, and then what are we gonna

1338
01:05:48,800 --> 01:05:50,520
Speaker 2: get with Tua? You know has had to buy. I

1339
01:05:50,520 --> 01:05:53,960
Speaker 2: think he does fit well in chan Gailey's system. We'll

1340
01:05:53,960 --> 01:05:56,720
Speaker 2: see if DeVante Parker goes. But if you're gonna buy

1341
01:05:56,760 --> 01:05:58,760
Speaker 2: the upside and the high variant of this spot, I

1342
01:05:58,800 --> 01:06:01,920
Speaker 2: think this is why I'm taking Miami is the money

1343
01:06:01,920 --> 01:06:04,160
Speaker 2: on underdog, just for the upside of Tua and what

1344
01:06:04,240 --> 01:06:05,960
Speaker 2: that upside could potentially be.

1345
01:06:06,680 --> 01:06:07,200
Speaker 3: I love it.

1346
01:06:07,480 --> 01:06:10,000
Speaker 4: I think that that's absolutely the right call. And it

1347
01:06:10,240 --> 01:06:13,120
Speaker 4: just goes into exactly what I said, buy these guys now,

1348
01:06:14,480 --> 01:06:16,200
Speaker 4: you'll get them cheap. So even if you have some

1349
01:06:16,240 --> 01:06:19,520
Speaker 4: whiffs early on, you know, maybe he doesn't cover this game,

1350
01:06:19,520 --> 01:06:23,560
Speaker 4: but they don't win this game, you're still buying this guy,

1351
01:06:23,600 --> 01:06:26,960
Speaker 4: as you mentioned, coming off of by extremely talented quarterback

1352
01:06:27,000 --> 01:06:29,680
Speaker 4: and you didn't even mention Brian Ferraz, who's done a

1353
01:06:29,680 --> 01:06:32,800
Speaker 4: hell of a job in Miami, you know, making this

1354
01:06:32,840 --> 01:06:35,760
Speaker 4: team competitive even last year down the stretch to where

1355
01:06:35,960 --> 01:06:39,280
Speaker 4: they couldn't actually you know, pull off tanking for Joe Burrow.

1356
01:06:39,480 --> 01:06:41,040
Speaker 4: And then you look at who they played this year,

1357
01:06:41,320 --> 01:06:44,120
Speaker 4: New England, Buffalo, Seattle.

1358
01:06:43,680 --> 01:06:46,880
Speaker 3: San Francisco. Not a super easy slate.

1359
01:06:46,920 --> 01:06:48,680
Speaker 4: They have a couple of easy games mixed in against

1360
01:06:48,680 --> 01:06:51,600
Speaker 4: the Jags and Jets, but they dominated in those games.

1361
01:06:51,640 --> 01:06:54,000
Speaker 4: They did exactly what they needed, what a good team

1362
01:06:54,040 --> 01:06:56,919
Speaker 4: would do in those games. They beat the Jets twenty

1363
01:06:56,960 --> 01:06:59,400
Speaker 4: four zip and they beat the Jags thirty one to thirteen.

1364
01:06:59,520 --> 01:07:03,800
Speaker 4: So yeah, I think this Dolphins team is a probably

1365
01:07:03,800 --> 01:07:04,680
Speaker 4: a lot better than.

1366
01:07:04,600 --> 01:07:07,560
Speaker 3: I think the casual observer may think.

1367
01:07:07,960 --> 01:07:10,960
Speaker 4: And you got them at home, you got cross country,

1368
01:07:10,960 --> 01:07:13,600
Speaker 4: you got a Rams team that's they're not the Bears,

1369
01:07:13,680 --> 01:07:16,840
Speaker 4: but they're a little limited and kind of under the

1370
01:07:17,120 --> 01:07:19,600
Speaker 4: under the raidar a little bit limited. The difference with

1371
01:07:19,600 --> 01:07:21,160
Speaker 4: the Rams is they could still move it on first

1372
01:07:21,320 --> 01:07:22,440
Speaker 4: you know, early downs.

1373
01:07:22,480 --> 01:07:25,320
Speaker 3: They just kind of bogged down. So but yeah, I

1374
01:07:25,440 --> 01:07:28,360
Speaker 3: like to call for my pick. Uh.

1375
01:07:28,400 --> 01:07:29,880
Speaker 4: This is a tough one because I wanted to just

1376
01:07:29,920 --> 01:07:32,480
Speaker 4: go with the Raiders again. But I wanted to kind

1377
01:07:32,480 --> 01:07:35,200
Speaker 4: of switch it up and uh and go with another

1378
01:07:35,240 --> 01:07:37,480
Speaker 4: team that I think has a pretty good shot at

1379
01:07:37,520 --> 01:07:39,400
Speaker 4: winning this week, and that's the New England Patriots.

1380
01:07:40,120 --> 01:07:42,240
Speaker 3: Look, you know, now everyone's all.

1381
01:07:42,120 --> 01:07:44,080
Speaker 4: Down on the Patriots and oh my god, they have

1382
01:07:44,160 --> 01:07:47,120
Speaker 4: no offense and no one can separate and Cam might

1383
01:07:47,160 --> 01:07:49,640
Speaker 4: not be good, and oh my god, and and like

1384
01:07:49,680 --> 01:07:51,840
Speaker 4: I said, this coming into the air, like this might

1385
01:07:52,360 --> 01:07:55,720
Speaker 4: be there might be some some growing pains from Cam Newton,

1386
01:07:55,760 --> 01:07:56,680
Speaker 4: this might not be great.

1387
01:07:56,840 --> 01:08:00,479
Speaker 3: But look, Buffalo, you're just got Cam.

1388
01:08:00,400 --> 01:08:03,000
Speaker 4: Newton going against Cam Newton in this game, and either

1389
01:08:03,080 --> 01:08:07,240
Speaker 4: Cam Newton could win. And I'm getting the undervalued Cam

1390
01:08:07,320 --> 01:08:12,120
Speaker 4: Newton with the better coach. And listen, the Patriots defense

1391
01:08:12,160 --> 01:08:14,680
Speaker 4: has not played well. I think they'll play a little

1392
01:08:14,680 --> 01:08:16,800
Speaker 4: bit better. We're starting to see Josh Allen come down

1393
01:08:16,840 --> 01:08:19,040
Speaker 4: to earth. The last what three games have been an

1394
01:08:19,040 --> 01:08:22,280
Speaker 4: absolute struggle after he started the year hot. Now John

1395
01:08:22,320 --> 01:08:24,960
Speaker 4: Brown is practicing, looks like he'll be back that help,

1396
01:08:24,960 --> 01:08:26,880
Speaker 4: but he's had Brown for a couple I think it

1397
01:08:26,920 --> 01:08:30,439
Speaker 4: was one of those games. So like, we still have

1398
01:08:30,560 --> 01:08:33,720
Speaker 4: this Buffalo team that they're gonna go as Josh Allen goes,

1399
01:08:33,720 --> 01:08:36,479
Speaker 4: They're gonna make some plays on the ground. Stefan Diggs

1400
01:08:36,520 --> 01:08:38,160
Speaker 4: been held down a fifty yards the last couple of games.

1401
01:08:38,200 --> 01:08:41,760
Speaker 4: Gilmore has rebounded after his slow start. So just give

1402
01:08:41,800 --> 01:08:44,559
Speaker 4: me the Patriots when everyone's down on them and no

1403
01:08:44,600 --> 01:08:46,840
Speaker 4: one can expect him to win in a division game

1404
01:08:46,880 --> 01:08:50,360
Speaker 4: against the team that they've seen before, whereas the Bills

1405
01:08:50,400 --> 01:08:53,559
Speaker 4: haven't actually seen them with this offense yet. Just every

1406
01:08:53,640 --> 01:08:55,759
Speaker 4: edge for Belichick in my opinion in this spot.

1407
01:08:56,439 --> 01:09:00,479
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I just think the Patriots stink their offense.

1408
01:09:00,520 --> 01:09:02,479
Speaker 2: They've a lot of moving parts the offensive line. The

1409
01:09:02,520 --> 01:09:05,360
Speaker 2: strengths of this team are the offense interieror offensive line,

1410
01:09:05,400 --> 01:09:09,479
Speaker 2: and then the secondary. But people are like Bill Belichick.

1411
01:09:09,560 --> 01:09:11,719
Speaker 2: He rebuilt this whole defense is first on The offense

1412
01:09:11,760 --> 01:09:13,679
Speaker 2: is terrible. I mean, where are the tight ends? Where

1413
01:09:13,720 --> 01:09:15,960
Speaker 2: is the separation the outside? And Cam Newton is he hurt?

1414
01:09:16,040 --> 01:09:18,000
Speaker 2: I don't know. The last two games he's thrown to

1415
01:09:18,040 --> 01:09:20,560
Speaker 2: the right three times, to the right side of the

1416
01:09:20,560 --> 01:09:23,360
Speaker 2: field three times. He's throwing to the left every single time.

1417
01:09:23,400 --> 01:09:24,839
Speaker 2: I don't know what's going on. Might be his shoulder.

1418
01:09:25,120 --> 01:09:27,120
Speaker 2: You'll look at his throat chart. Last week he threw

1419
01:09:27,120 --> 01:09:30,639
Speaker 2: it to the right zero times, zero times the entire game,

1420
01:09:30,760 --> 01:09:32,360
Speaker 2: and then he got benched. So I don't know what's

1421
01:09:32,400 --> 01:09:34,880
Speaker 2: going on. The Patriots were asked about of the press conference.

1422
01:09:34,960 --> 01:09:37,160
Speaker 2: They said, it's random. I don't know how you throw

1423
01:09:37,320 --> 01:09:39,439
Speaker 2: to the left side of the field every single play

1424
01:09:39,479 --> 01:09:42,839
Speaker 2: for two weeks. You hop Milano's back and Levi Wallace's

1425
01:09:42,880 --> 01:09:44,599
Speaker 2: back for the Bills. The good news for the Patriots,

1426
01:09:44,640 --> 01:09:47,160
Speaker 2: by the way, is on the right side, the defensive

1427
01:09:47,240 --> 01:09:49,120
Speaker 2: left side is where Trey White plays. I don't know

1428
01:09:49,120 --> 01:09:50,880
Speaker 2: if the Bills are gonna put Trey Wood on the

1429
01:09:50,920 --> 01:09:52,800
Speaker 2: right side. We'll see, I said. The Bills on have

1430
01:09:52,800 --> 01:09:55,639
Speaker 2: a slock corner. Maybe Edaman eats, but Edelman looks washed.

1431
01:09:55,680 --> 01:09:57,000
Speaker 2: I mean, we just lead to NFL.

1432
01:09:57,040 --> 01:10:00,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's got a knee issue. They say it came

1433
01:10:00,280 --> 01:10:02,040
Speaker 3: back flight out said that they were limiting him.

1434
01:10:02,040 --> 01:10:03,200
Speaker 2: He's he's he's washed.

1435
01:10:03,439 --> 01:10:05,280
Speaker 3: I mean where yeah, like I should.

1436
01:10:05,040 --> 01:10:07,680
Speaker 2: Say, and Nikhil Harry's banged up. So I that's a

1437
01:10:07,680 --> 01:10:10,040
Speaker 2: good thing. Look, it's a good thing. Like the Bills.

1438
01:10:10,120 --> 01:10:12,960
Speaker 2: McDermott benched all his defensive linemen and last week they

1439
01:10:13,000 --> 01:10:14,840
Speaker 2: finally played really well. But it was the Jets. So

1440
01:10:14,840 --> 01:10:16,160
Speaker 2: I don't know did I fire them up or not.

1441
01:10:16,439 --> 01:10:18,080
Speaker 2: You can't take too much away from that. On the

1442
01:10:18,120 --> 01:10:19,560
Speaker 2: other side of the ball, here's something I want to

1443
01:10:19,560 --> 01:10:22,519
Speaker 2: get to. The Patriots defense has been really bad. Like

1444
01:10:22,560 --> 01:10:25,200
Speaker 2: their offense is like twenty fifth right rated if you like,

1445
01:10:25,200 --> 01:10:26,479
Speaker 2: look at some of the line of metrics and so

1446
01:10:26,600 --> 01:10:29,240
Speaker 2: is like their defense. They rebuilt the whole front seven.

1447
01:10:29,560 --> 01:10:31,240
Speaker 2: So you think that's going to be bad. They did

1448
01:10:31,240 --> 01:10:33,080
Speaker 2: the same thing. But people are like, on it's Bill Belichick,

1449
01:10:33,120 --> 01:10:36,439
Speaker 2: who'll He'll make them better with his brain, his big brain.

1450
01:10:36,800 --> 01:10:40,479
Speaker 2: But you go back to eleven Patriots team, they went

1451
01:10:40,479 --> 01:10:42,920
Speaker 2: fourteen to two. Twenty eleven they went thirteen to three.

1452
01:10:43,120 --> 01:10:45,080
Speaker 2: These were some of the worst defenses in the NFL

1453
01:10:45,080 --> 01:10:48,360
Speaker 2: in the past twenty years of the playoff teams. Twenty

1454
01:10:48,479 --> 01:10:50,960
Speaker 2: eleven they went to the Super Bowl, lost to the Giants.

1455
01:10:51,000 --> 01:10:54,040
Speaker 2: They finished thirtieth and DBI and defense. It's not like

1456
01:10:54,120 --> 01:10:56,360
Speaker 2: Bill Belichick just and that was when they rebuilt their defense.

1457
01:10:56,400 --> 01:10:59,040
Speaker 2: It's not like they just had elite offenses. Elite they

1458
01:10:59,120 --> 01:11:02,320
Speaker 2: finished number one away that year. Their offense just carry

1459
01:11:02,320 --> 01:11:05,240
Speaker 2: them well. Now their defense is not as good, bottom

1460
01:11:05,280 --> 01:11:07,840
Speaker 2: ten in the league, and their offense is also bottom

1461
01:11:07,880 --> 01:11:09,400
Speaker 2: ten in the league, so it can't make up for that.

1462
01:11:09,560 --> 01:11:11,000
Speaker 2: And I want to also went out. You know, they

1463
01:11:11,040 --> 01:11:15,439
Speaker 2: lost Chung, they lost Harmon, but Stefan Gilmour, he might

1464
01:11:15,560 --> 01:11:19,200
Speaker 2: be headed to the dreaded cliff. How old is Stefan Gilmore?

1465
01:11:19,240 --> 01:11:23,160
Speaker 2: Everybody he's a man corner that they like to play man.

1466
01:11:23,439 --> 01:11:26,439
Speaker 2: And I've said this many times on this podcast. You

1467
01:11:26,479 --> 01:11:31,200
Speaker 2: go and you just chart the production of pure man corners.

1468
01:11:31,640 --> 01:11:36,080
Speaker 2: It's once they hit thirty, you go off of a cliff.

1469
01:11:36,160 --> 01:11:40,599
Speaker 2: I mean, Stefan Gilmour right now is drum roll plays

1470
01:11:40,720 --> 01:11:45,000
Speaker 2: thirty years old. Just turned thirty on September nineteenth. So

1471
01:11:45,439 --> 01:11:47,920
Speaker 2: you know, we talked about guys like Xavier Roads last

1472
01:11:48,000 --> 01:11:51,439
Speaker 2: year trying to play man thirty years old done, Darius

1473
01:11:51,439 --> 01:11:55,200
Speaker 2: Slay done, Josh Norman turned thirty done. I mean, like

1474
01:11:55,400 --> 01:11:57,439
Speaker 2: the list goes on and on and on. You look

1475
01:11:57,479 --> 01:12:01,400
Speaker 2: at each chart, all pro cornerbacks, Pro Bowl cornerbacks, it's

1476
01:12:01,439 --> 01:12:04,240
Speaker 2: basically like twenty three, age twenty three a peak. You

1477
01:12:04,280 --> 01:12:05,800
Speaker 2: start to run into your peak, and then you go

1478
01:12:05,880 --> 01:12:08,320
Speaker 2: to like twenty seven. Twenty three to twenty seven is

1479
01:12:08,320 --> 01:12:10,519
Speaker 2: you're ideal age. Patrick Peterson, by the way, thirty two

1480
01:12:10,520 --> 01:12:12,880
Speaker 2: and he play doesn't look great. You know that's Marlon

1481
01:12:12,960 --> 01:12:15,559
Speaker 2: Huptrey twenty four years old, Jalen Ramsey twenty six Like

1482
01:12:15,600 --> 01:12:17,320
Speaker 2: those are your two of your best corners in the

1483
01:12:17,439 --> 01:12:20,360
Speaker 2: NFL that will persist over the next couple of years.

1484
01:12:20,600 --> 01:12:23,320
Speaker 2: So I think that Gilmour who hasn't been great and

1485
01:12:23,360 --> 01:12:24,760
Speaker 2: part of the reason why the Pats, I mean, look

1486
01:12:24,760 --> 01:12:26,439
Speaker 2: at that Seahawks game. One of the reason why the

1487
01:12:26,439 --> 01:12:29,400
Speaker 2: Pats passy that's also hasn't been great is maybe guys

1488
01:12:29,439 --> 01:12:33,720
Speaker 2: like Gilmore and mccordy are falling off that cliff. So

1489
01:12:33,840 --> 01:12:36,040
Speaker 2: I think there's a lot of problems with this Patriots team.

1490
01:12:36,439 --> 01:12:38,920
Speaker 2: The offense is supposed to make up for it because

1491
01:12:38,960 --> 01:12:41,880
Speaker 2: the defense was rebuilding. It hasn't that the offense is

1492
01:12:41,880 --> 01:12:45,360
Speaker 2: a mess. I think the Bills win this game, but

1493
01:12:45,720 --> 01:12:47,120
Speaker 2: I just took the under. I don't know how the

1494
01:12:47,120 --> 01:12:51,040
Speaker 2: Patriots score. I'm sure the Patriots will dial up something together.

1495
01:12:51,040 --> 01:12:53,040
Speaker 2: There's twenty five mile on hour wins in Orchard Park

1496
01:12:53,040 --> 01:12:54,880
Speaker 2: for this division game and this game, this game could

1497
01:12:54,880 --> 01:12:56,679
Speaker 2: be like seventeen to thirteen final.

1498
01:12:57,200 --> 01:12:59,960
Speaker 4: Well, so Gilmore has actually and Matthew freedban Our Guy

1499
01:13:00,040 --> 01:13:03,200
Speaker 4: pointed this out in his wide receiver cornerback piece, which

1500
01:13:03,200 --> 01:13:05,920
Speaker 4: is up at Action network dot com. But they play

1501
01:13:06,000 --> 01:13:08,160
Speaker 4: Seattle in Week two, you know that's not gonna go

1502
01:13:08,240 --> 01:13:13,400
Speaker 4: very well. Gilmore gets torched. Since then, four games, twelve targets,

1503
01:13:13,560 --> 01:13:16,800
Speaker 4: sixty one yards five yards at target. It's I mean,

1504
01:13:16,880 --> 01:13:19,880
Speaker 4: it's business as usual the defense as a whole. I

1505
01:13:20,080 --> 01:13:23,439
Speaker 4: grant you that it's not the same defense, but listen,

1506
01:13:23,479 --> 01:13:25,320
Speaker 4: you're gonna give up some numbers when you play Seattle.

1507
01:13:25,400 --> 01:13:26,400
Speaker 3: Everybody does.

1508
01:13:27,400 --> 01:13:29,679
Speaker 4: But the reason I like the Patriots here is because

1509
01:13:29,720 --> 01:13:32,559
Speaker 4: you have a situation where the Bills have played and

1510
01:13:32,600 --> 01:13:34,240
Speaker 4: we saw this creep up I think last year and

1511
01:13:34,240 --> 01:13:36,920
Speaker 4: maybe even the year before too, but just consistently with

1512
01:13:36,960 --> 01:13:40,080
Speaker 4: Sean McDermott defenses back to this Carolina days, they just

1513
01:13:40,120 --> 01:13:41,920
Speaker 4: they go through these long stretches where they just don't

1514
01:13:41,920 --> 01:13:44,639
Speaker 4: play run defense during the regular season. And they're twenty

1515
01:13:44,680 --> 01:13:47,240
Speaker 4: eeth in Dvoa right now. The Patriots don't have to

1516
01:13:47,280 --> 01:13:50,080
Speaker 4: do much on offense, and Josh Allen is one of

1517
01:13:50,080 --> 01:13:52,960
Speaker 4: the progressing back to the mean still I think one

1518
01:13:52,960 --> 01:13:56,760
Speaker 4: of the more mistake prone guys, especially with this Patriots team,

1519
01:13:56,760 --> 01:13:59,040
Speaker 4: and it's a division game and the Bills haven't seen

1520
01:13:59,120 --> 01:14:00,760
Speaker 4: him I just think this is the time to buy

1521
01:14:00,760 --> 01:14:02,799
Speaker 4: one of the Pats. And I picked against the Pats

1522
01:14:03,320 --> 01:14:06,640
Speaker 4: with the forty nine ers traveling across country on you know,

1523
01:14:06,720 --> 01:14:09,640
Speaker 4: on a short week last week. So I'm going with

1524
01:14:09,640 --> 01:14:11,960
Speaker 4: the Pats this time, because, hey, this is when no

1525
01:14:12,000 --> 01:14:14,360
Speaker 4: one thinks they're gonna do it. It's probably exactly when

1526
01:14:14,360 --> 01:14:16,320
Speaker 4: they do it. That doesn't mean they don't still stink.

1527
01:14:16,360 --> 01:14:17,799
Speaker 4: But I think they beat the Bills.

1528
01:14:18,120 --> 01:14:20,120
Speaker 2: That's a Bilow spot. I don't hate the logic. I'm

1529
01:14:20,160 --> 01:14:22,200
Speaker 2: just arguing to guess that the Patriots might have bigger

1530
01:14:22,200 --> 01:14:24,479
Speaker 2: problems than I'm even accounting for, and that we might

1531
01:14:24,520 --> 01:14:25,840
Speaker 2: continue to see.

1532
01:14:25,680 --> 01:14:27,120
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, I mean I kind of hope they do,

1533
01:14:27,160 --> 01:14:29,439
Speaker 4: because that's kind of what I call out there beginning

1534
01:14:29,439 --> 01:14:29,800
Speaker 4: of the year.

1535
01:14:29,920 --> 01:14:32,559
Speaker 3: But so yeah, I'm going with the Pats. You're going

1536
01:14:32,560 --> 01:14:33,400
Speaker 3: with the Dolphins.

1537
01:14:33,479 --> 01:14:37,240
Speaker 4: And we saved the coaches pep Talk for this segment

1538
01:14:37,320 --> 01:14:41,439
Speaker 4: because I'm gonna go ahead here and let you dedicate

1539
01:14:41,479 --> 01:14:44,240
Speaker 4: this one to the Miami Dolphins.

1540
01:14:44,400 --> 01:14:45,800
Speaker 3: It's a perfect pep talk for.

1541
01:14:45,840 --> 01:14:48,840
Speaker 4: Them, and to a tongue of I Willa in particular.

1542
01:14:49,360 --> 01:14:53,040
Speaker 4: So this week's coach is pep Talk features Chez Promonary

1543
01:14:53,160 --> 01:14:55,760
Speaker 4: and Christopher walk in and it comes to us courtesy

1544
01:14:56,200 --> 01:14:59,920
Speaker 4: of the two thousand and two film Pool Haul junk.

1545
01:15:01,880 --> 01:15:04,040
Speaker 3: Fuck this back and forth, bullshit, it's a big waste

1546
01:15:04,040 --> 01:15:04,400
Speaker 3: of time.

1547
01:15:04,720 --> 01:15:05,680
Speaker 2: You want to put it all up?

1548
01:15:05,760 --> 01:15:06,080
Speaker 6: Huh?

1549
01:15:06,240 --> 01:15:08,040
Speaker 2: Come on, race for eighty thousand.

1550
01:15:09,000 --> 01:15:11,160
Speaker 3: I'm betting this big time action brings out the dog

1551
01:15:11,200 --> 01:15:13,519
Speaker 3: and your boy over there, because I'm the only one

1552
01:15:13,520 --> 01:15:15,439
Speaker 3: in this room who knows how fast your boy could

1553
01:15:15,479 --> 01:15:18,120
Speaker 3: run over there. How the fuck does that make you

1554
01:15:18,240 --> 01:15:21,240
Speaker 3: feel to be in that position with all your money

1555
01:15:21,240 --> 01:15:21,880
Speaker 3: on the table.

1556
01:15:22,840 --> 01:15:25,080
Speaker 2: You put down eighty thousand like it didn't matter that

1557
01:15:25,080 --> 01:15:27,040
Speaker 2: that's a lot of money for somebody like you and him.

1558
01:15:27,520 --> 01:15:28,320
Speaker 2: What's the difference.

1559
01:15:28,520 --> 01:15:30,839
Speaker 5: I'm a millionaire, that's the difference.

1560
01:15:31,160 --> 01:15:33,400
Speaker 2: I lose Ady, I get another Rady for me. It

1561
01:15:33,439 --> 01:15:33,960
Speaker 2: doesn't matter.

1562
01:15:34,000 --> 01:15:36,360
Speaker 5: See, I think it's you who's sweating this.

1563
01:15:37,200 --> 01:15:37,519
Speaker 2: Now.

1564
01:15:38,120 --> 01:15:40,280
Speaker 5: You're gonna put it all on the line because you

1565
01:15:40,320 --> 01:15:41,240
Speaker 5: think he's gonna choke.

1566
01:15:41,439 --> 01:15:45,960
Speaker 2: I don't think so. I think he's gonna choke. Yeah,

1567
01:15:46,080 --> 01:15:47,840
Speaker 2: you gotta throw this out for two. It's all about

1568
01:15:47,840 --> 01:15:51,840
Speaker 2: too this weekend. Dolphin's what outside playoff team in the AFC.

1569
01:15:51,960 --> 01:15:55,719
Speaker 2: They got a shot. They're in the discussion to If

1570
01:15:55,760 --> 01:15:58,160
Speaker 2: he plays awful, what happens to the locker room? If

1571
01:15:58,200 --> 01:16:00,160
Speaker 2: he can win this game over the Rams, then that's

1572
01:16:00,160 --> 01:16:03,200
Speaker 2: all a sudden full steam ahead. So what a spot

1573
01:16:03,200 --> 01:16:05,800
Speaker 2: for Tua. This clip fits perfectly for it.

1574
01:16:06,120 --> 01:16:07,960
Speaker 4: I mean, what's gonna happen with the locker room. There's

1575
01:16:07,960 --> 01:16:09,240
Speaker 4: a whole bunch of guys, just like two of them.

1576
01:16:09,240 --> 01:16:10,640
Speaker 4: They're probably gonna be like, yeah, we'll get it for.

1577
01:16:10,680 --> 01:16:13,759
Speaker 3: Him next week. I don't like Listen, everyone doesn't.

1578
01:16:13,800 --> 01:16:16,720
Speaker 2: Doesn't do you say, hey, do we go back to Fitzpatrick?

1579
01:16:17,000 --> 01:16:18,680
Speaker 2: We lost this game, now we need to win this week,

1580
01:16:18,720 --> 01:16:20,800
Speaker 2: and depending on how bad he looked, I don't know.

1581
01:16:21,240 --> 01:16:22,560
Speaker 3: I mean, I wouldn't expect it.

1582
01:16:22,600 --> 01:16:24,680
Speaker 4: I'm just going off the fact that they bench Fitzpatrick

1583
01:16:24,720 --> 01:16:26,240
Speaker 4: when he was playing pretty well. You know. That tells

1584
01:16:26,320 --> 01:16:27,960
Speaker 4: me that they had to plan the whole time, which

1585
01:16:28,080 --> 01:16:32,120
Speaker 4: means they're not actually trying to do anything, unlike the

1586
01:16:32,360 --> 01:16:36,639
Speaker 4: Washington football team, which apparently is. So now it's time

1587
01:16:36,920 --> 01:16:40,120
Speaker 4: for the best of the rest, which are the games

1588
01:16:40,160 --> 01:16:44,760
Speaker 4: that we did not discuss in any other segment. All right,

1589
01:16:44,960 --> 01:16:49,120
Speaker 4: let's start it off with the Titans, six point favorites

1590
01:16:50,160 --> 01:16:54,240
Speaker 4: in Cincinnati. The total fifty four and a half already

1591
01:16:54,280 --> 01:16:57,479
Speaker 4: discussed this game a little, but any other thoughts on

1592
01:16:57,720 --> 01:16:58,639
Speaker 4: Bengals Titans.

1593
01:16:59,240 --> 01:17:03,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, curiously, if Dorry Jackson comes back, Bengals just throwing

1594
01:17:03,160 --> 01:17:05,280
Speaker 2: a ton I mean, Bar's gonna throw the ball fifty times.

1595
01:17:05,439 --> 01:17:08,200
Speaker 2: And their defense is not great. I don't know how

1596
01:17:08,200 --> 01:17:10,880
Speaker 2: they're gonna slow down Henry and that play ash and attack.

1597
01:17:10,920 --> 01:17:14,080
Speaker 2: The one thing with the Titans the worst through six games,

1598
01:17:14,240 --> 01:17:17,479
Speaker 2: the worst third down defense in the history of the NFL.

1599
01:17:17,960 --> 01:17:19,960
Speaker 2: So their defense is not play well. They're not getting pressure,

1600
01:17:19,960 --> 01:17:22,320
Speaker 2: they missing Dory Jackson, their secondary is not playing well.

1601
01:17:23,080 --> 01:17:25,479
Speaker 2: You wrote a piece up on the Titans. This is

1602
01:17:25,479 --> 01:17:26,880
Speaker 2: probably a pass for me. I would lean over. But

1603
01:17:26,920 --> 01:17:29,000
Speaker 2: what are you? What are your thoughts on Tennessee fraud

1604
01:17:29,080 --> 01:17:29,200
Speaker 2: or not?

1605
01:17:29,840 --> 01:17:30,800
Speaker 3: They're a little bit of both.

1606
01:17:30,920 --> 01:17:35,360
Speaker 4: Like they are, They've unquestionably benefited from luck. They've just

1607
01:17:35,479 --> 01:17:37,760
Speaker 4: in They're like another Seahawks and the ones, well not

1608
01:17:37,840 --> 01:17:39,960
Speaker 4: the Seeriks actors, because the Seahawks don't actually get a

1609
01:17:40,000 --> 01:17:41,720
Speaker 4: out of one score, hadn't got a lout of one

1610
01:17:41,720 --> 01:17:45,000
Speaker 4: score up to very recently. But now the Titans four

1611
01:17:45,000 --> 01:17:47,439
Speaker 4: and one once tannehis over and one sewer games last

1612
01:17:47,520 --> 01:17:48,920
Speaker 4: year four and one this year.

1613
01:17:48,960 --> 01:17:50,519
Speaker 3: That Steelers game was their first loss.

1614
01:17:50,960 --> 01:17:53,680
Speaker 4: And they've done all of this well, kicking sixteen of

1615
01:17:53,800 --> 01:17:57,040
Speaker 4: thirty four on field goals since the beginning of last year.

1616
01:17:57,200 --> 01:17:59,840
Speaker 3: So they're winning one score games not a field goal kicker.

1617
01:18:00,240 --> 01:18:03,200
Speaker 3: Because they're hitting in the red zone at seventy eight percent.

1618
01:18:03,880 --> 01:18:07,760
Speaker 3: It's this is just historic. And yeah, is that going

1619
01:18:07,840 --> 01:18:08,360
Speaker 3: to regress?

1620
01:18:08,560 --> 01:18:08,760
Speaker 4: Yes?

1621
01:18:09,040 --> 01:18:12,600
Speaker 3: Is it lucky? Not exactly because I went back and

1622
01:18:12,640 --> 01:18:13,360
Speaker 3: I watched.

1623
01:18:13,120 --> 01:18:17,280
Speaker 4: All of their touchdowns and Arthur Smith he doesn't really

1624
01:18:17,320 --> 01:18:19,000
Speaker 4: get talked about. I mean, he's got starting to get

1625
01:18:19,040 --> 01:18:20,960
Speaker 4: to buzzs, so I think the Texans coaching job, but

1626
01:18:21,040 --> 01:18:24,440
Speaker 4: generally doesn't really get talked about, you know, in conversations

1627
01:18:24,439 --> 01:18:28,240
Speaker 4: about offensive coordinators. But he just does an amazing job

1628
01:18:28,320 --> 01:18:32,960
Speaker 4: when they get into into scoring position, just scheming guys open,

1629
01:18:33,120 --> 01:18:36,880
Speaker 4: Like they have three offensive linemen touchdowns caught since the

1630
01:18:36,960 --> 01:18:39,479
Speaker 4: beginning of last year. Derrick Henry has thrown a touchdown,

1631
01:18:40,240 --> 01:18:43,160
Speaker 4: Like every time Tannehill drops back, he's half the time

1632
01:18:43,160 --> 01:18:45,920
Speaker 4: he's just jogging free to the end zone, or he

1633
01:18:46,000 --> 01:18:49,160
Speaker 4: as a receiver in single coverage. Like a great job

1634
01:18:49,680 --> 01:18:54,519
Speaker 4: scheming by Arthur Smith. And yeah, red zone rate tends

1635
01:18:54,520 --> 01:18:56,840
Speaker 4: to regress to the meme, but a little bit of

1636
01:18:56,840 --> 01:19:00,720
Speaker 4: skill involved. We saw a team like the Patriots for

1637
01:19:01,160 --> 01:19:05,479
Speaker 4: a decade, top eight every year, year in year out.

1638
01:19:06,120 --> 01:19:07,800
Speaker 4: The Titans could be well on their way or something

1639
01:19:07,840 --> 01:19:09,519
Speaker 4: like that. And they also just have skilled you know,

1640
01:19:09,560 --> 01:19:11,760
Speaker 4: they have the right group of guys who you want

1641
01:19:11,840 --> 01:19:14,559
Speaker 4: to score in the red zone, particularly just Derrick Henry

1642
01:19:14,680 --> 01:19:19,519
Speaker 4: and AJ Brown. So they're very good on offense, agree

1643
01:19:20,040 --> 01:19:21,120
Speaker 4: abysmal defense.

1644
01:19:21,280 --> 01:19:22,120
Speaker 3: It should get better.

1645
01:19:22,240 --> 01:19:25,479
Speaker 4: They were number three in points allowed in twenty eighteen,

1646
01:19:25,560 --> 01:19:27,960
Speaker 4: number twelve and twenty nineteen. Vabels a defensive guy. You'd

1647
01:19:28,000 --> 01:19:30,240
Speaker 4: expect them to get better. But I'm just worried about

1648
01:19:30,240 --> 01:19:33,160
Speaker 4: Cincinnati's OH line in this game. I think Jonah Williams

1649
01:19:33,760 --> 01:19:36,840
Speaker 4: made miss or he's on the injury report, and Bobby Hart.

1650
01:19:36,920 --> 01:19:39,120
Speaker 4: Bobby Hart is out, and those are the two best linemen.

1651
01:19:39,680 --> 01:19:43,760
Speaker 4: So Burrow's already, you know, not really getting any help.

1652
01:19:43,840 --> 01:19:47,000
Speaker 4: And this defense is not exactly you know one that

1653
01:19:47,240 --> 01:19:49,040
Speaker 4: it's gonna be like, Okay, we're gonna get a ton

1654
01:19:49,080 --> 01:19:52,280
Speaker 4: of pressure, but the Titans can score, and the more

1655
01:19:52,320 --> 01:19:54,599
Speaker 4: you drop back, the more mistakes are gonna happen for Burrow.

1656
01:19:54,720 --> 01:19:57,200
Speaker 3: So I think it's a good spot for Tennessee.

1657
01:19:57,280 --> 01:19:57,479
Speaker 2: But I.

1658
01:19:59,000 --> 01:20:00,800
Speaker 4: It's one of these starts with the six worries me

1659
01:20:00,840 --> 01:20:02,160
Speaker 4: a lot more than a five and a half because

1660
01:20:02,160 --> 01:20:04,439
Speaker 4: even if they win by a touchdown, which I think

1661
01:20:04,520 --> 01:20:08,080
Speaker 4: they should, they made miss the extra point, so I

1662
01:20:08,200 --> 01:20:10,479
Speaker 4: can't really recommend it past five and a half.

1663
01:20:10,320 --> 01:20:13,040
Speaker 3: At this point, all right. Next up we have the

1664
01:20:14,160 --> 01:20:17,160
Speaker 3: New York Jets. Surprised that you didn't take the Jets

1665
01:20:17,280 --> 01:20:19,439
Speaker 3: back to back weeks, but that's probably not a smart play.

1666
01:20:19,840 --> 01:20:21,800
Speaker 4: You got what you needed out of them last week,

1667
01:20:22,160 --> 01:20:26,280
Speaker 4: but plus nineteen and a half at bet MGM, the

1668
01:20:26,360 --> 01:20:31,360
Speaker 4: official adds provider of the pod in arrowhead total forty

1669
01:20:31,400 --> 01:20:33,880
Speaker 4: eight and a half, you got to take the Jets right.

1670
01:20:34,600 --> 01:20:38,080
Speaker 2: Unfortunately, can't but filled although teams there are more than

1671
01:20:38,200 --> 01:20:41,559
Speaker 2: seventeen since two thousand and three or three and nine

1672
01:20:41,600 --> 01:20:45,080
Speaker 2: against the spread. But luckily when I went I adjusted

1673
01:20:45,120 --> 01:20:46,439
Speaker 2: my numbers for last week, and by the way, I've

1674
01:20:46,439 --> 01:20:47,680
Speaker 2: had the Jets last week, and I'm one to zer

1675
01:20:47,680 --> 01:20:50,599
Speaker 2: against the spread against betting the Jets. Hopefully I end

1676
01:20:50,640 --> 01:20:53,719
Speaker 2: the year that way. I went back, looked at the game,

1677
01:20:54,560 --> 01:20:56,640
Speaker 2: grated it, and I was lucky. The Bill should have

1678
01:20:56,680 --> 01:20:58,840
Speaker 2: won by a lot more I mean they settled for

1679
01:20:58,920 --> 01:21:01,560
Speaker 2: like forty field goals. So I was fortunate with the

1680
01:21:01,600 --> 01:21:04,439
Speaker 2: Jets got there for me. And this week, after adjusting,

1681
01:21:04,560 --> 01:21:06,639
Speaker 2: I made this between nineteen and nineteen and a half.

1682
01:21:06,880 --> 01:21:08,880
Speaker 2: So when I saw the line at nineteen nineteen and

1683
01:21:08,880 --> 01:21:11,240
Speaker 2: a half, I said, yes, I don't have to bet it.

1684
01:21:12,680 --> 01:21:15,519
Speaker 2: If I saw twenty one way before I you know,

1685
01:21:15,680 --> 01:21:17,920
Speaker 2: somewhere out there, if he was twenty one, maybe, if

1686
01:21:17,960 --> 01:21:20,160
Speaker 2: twenty one and a half, twenty one, maybe I bet

1687
01:21:20,200 --> 01:21:20,599
Speaker 2: the Jets.

1688
01:21:20,800 --> 01:21:21,200
Speaker 3: If it was.

1689
01:21:21,200 --> 01:21:24,800
Speaker 2: Seventeen sixteen and a half, I bet the Chiefs. But

1690
01:21:24,960 --> 01:21:27,479
Speaker 2: this line looks right to me. The interesting thing to

1691
01:21:27,520 --> 01:21:30,040
Speaker 2: me is are is Greg Williams gonna blitz? I mean

1692
01:21:30,080 --> 01:21:31,679
Speaker 2: his second is he gonna blitz a lot? He blitz

1693
01:21:31,720 --> 01:21:34,560
Speaker 2: mahomess A disaster is what Mahomee was due for, like

1694
01:21:34,600 --> 01:21:37,080
Speaker 2: an explosion game here. And even if the Chiefs get

1695
01:21:37,120 --> 01:21:39,320
Speaker 2: up or they just gonna let lev Bell like showboat

1696
01:21:39,720 --> 01:21:42,639
Speaker 2: and run it up, I don't know. The Jets are terrible,

1697
01:21:42,880 --> 01:21:46,560
Speaker 2: maybe they get crowded back now with Nim's Harriman's questionable.

1698
01:21:47,760 --> 01:21:50,640
Speaker 2: This is just a live spot on. But if the

1699
01:21:50,720 --> 01:21:53,400
Speaker 2: Jets blitz a lot, mahomes could have like an explosion game,

1700
01:21:53,479 --> 01:21:55,280
Speaker 2: and then they could just let they just want to

1701
01:21:55,280 --> 01:21:57,080
Speaker 2: get like leve Bell to dance in the end zone

1702
01:21:57,120 --> 01:21:59,080
Speaker 2: a couple times at the end and then run it

1703
01:21:59,160 --> 01:22:01,280
Speaker 2: up some more. So nothing for me there.

1704
01:22:02,520 --> 01:22:04,479
Speaker 4: Yeah, I actually think the Chiefs will throw it around

1705
01:22:04,520 --> 01:22:07,160
Speaker 4: in this game against the Jets. I mean, you saw

1706
01:22:07,240 --> 01:22:11,040
Speaker 4: the Bills and I had the under for Devin Singletary.

1707
01:22:11,080 --> 01:22:13,760
Speaker 4: That was actually the prop I went with on Convince Me,

1708
01:22:14,280 --> 01:22:16,880
Speaker 4: the Action Network Live show on Sunday mornings at eleven AM,

1709
01:22:17,200 --> 01:22:20,240
Speaker 4: and the Bills pretty much came out and didn't run

1710
01:22:20,320 --> 01:22:22,800
Speaker 4: the ball on their first like two possessions, or if

1711
01:22:22,840 --> 01:22:24,840
Speaker 4: they ran, it was with Josh Allen. Like Singletary didn't

1712
01:22:24,840 --> 01:22:27,280
Speaker 4: have a carry well into the second quarter. And I

1713
01:22:27,360 --> 01:22:30,320
Speaker 4: think teams do respect the Jets run defense, which has

1714
01:22:30,360 --> 01:22:32,840
Speaker 4: been pretty good for going on you know what two

1715
01:22:32,960 --> 01:22:35,559
Speaker 4: three years though even with some pieces, you know, shifting

1716
01:22:35,600 --> 01:22:39,080
Speaker 4: in and out their number four and adjusted lineyards allowed

1717
01:22:39,160 --> 01:22:41,559
Speaker 4: just three point five on defense to give that one

1718
01:22:41,640 --> 01:22:44,840
Speaker 4: big play to Raheem Mostert, But other than that it's

1719
01:22:44,920 --> 01:22:47,240
Speaker 4: been pretty good on Rundy. So I would expect the

1720
01:22:47,320 --> 01:22:49,800
Speaker 4: Chiefs being as smart as they are and as sharp

1721
01:22:49,840 --> 01:22:51,880
Speaker 4: as they are and Mahomes has kind of been quiet.

1722
01:22:51,920 --> 01:22:53,559
Speaker 3: I would expect them to just throw it around the yard.

1723
01:22:53,800 --> 01:22:54,639
Speaker 2: Yep, don't disagree.

1724
01:22:55,000 --> 01:22:58,120
Speaker 3: All right, So now it's time for our Survivor Pool

1725
01:22:58,479 --> 01:23:00,280
Speaker 3: pick of the week.

1726
01:23:00,880 --> 01:23:07,880
Speaker 5: One pick, one chance to advance Survivor.

1727
01:23:09,720 --> 01:23:11,960
Speaker 3: All right, well we both well, no, you can use

1728
01:23:12,000 --> 01:23:12,639
Speaker 3: the Chiefs this week.

1729
01:23:12,640 --> 01:23:14,640
Speaker 4: I think I use them and got eliminated, and you

1730
01:23:15,360 --> 01:23:17,120
Speaker 4: use a different team and we both got eliminated.

1731
01:23:17,200 --> 01:23:19,840
Speaker 3: But where are you going this week for your Survivor pick?

1732
01:23:20,479 --> 01:23:24,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean my plan. I think I was gonna

1733
01:23:24,040 --> 01:23:27,360
Speaker 2: try and save the Chiefs for the Panthers coming up

1734
01:23:27,360 --> 01:23:28,800
Speaker 2: here and just try to get as far as I

1735
01:23:29,000 --> 01:23:32,920
Speaker 2: can without using the Chiefs and the Ravens. So for

1736
01:23:33,040 --> 01:23:35,559
Speaker 2: this week, since I'm already out of all my thanks

1737
01:23:35,720 --> 01:23:40,000
Speaker 2: San fran and Dolphins, for this week, I'll say I'll

1738
01:23:40,040 --> 01:23:42,040
Speaker 2: go with the Bucks against the Giants here, save the

1739
01:23:42,120 --> 01:23:42,880
Speaker 2: Chiefs and Ravens.

1740
01:23:43,240 --> 01:23:46,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, the Bucks are a little bit banged up on offense,

1741
01:23:46,240 --> 01:23:49,639
Speaker 4: but this defense is just so good. And Daniel Jones

1742
01:23:50,040 --> 01:23:53,320
Speaker 4: in this offense for the Giants, it reminds me a

1743
01:23:53,360 --> 01:23:56,559
Speaker 4: lot of Chicago. It's you know, the defense is actually

1744
01:23:56,560 --> 01:23:59,439
Speaker 4: getting a little bit better, just cannot score points and

1745
01:23:59,760 --> 01:24:03,200
Speaker 4: get them away the other way. So really hard time

1746
01:24:03,280 --> 01:24:07,000
Speaker 4: seeing how the Giants pull this one, pull this one

1747
01:24:07,040 --> 01:24:07,960
Speaker 4: off even though they.

1748
01:24:07,920 --> 01:24:08,320
Speaker 2: Are at home.

1749
01:24:08,360 --> 01:24:12,040
Speaker 4: By the way, Daniel Jones at home is one and

1750
01:24:12,120 --> 01:24:16,280
Speaker 4: eight against the spread. The market for some reason gives

1751
01:24:16,320 --> 01:24:19,040
Speaker 4: the Giants like home field advantage and it just has

1752
01:24:19,160 --> 01:24:21,400
Speaker 4: there just hasn't been one with Jones. It's just getting

1753
01:24:21,439 --> 01:24:24,559
Speaker 4: offset by the lack of offense and the turnovers. So yeah,

1754
01:24:24,640 --> 01:24:26,560
Speaker 4: this is this is a spot where I expect the

1755
01:24:26,640 --> 01:24:29,760
Speaker 4: Bucks to win pretty handily. So we're both going with

1756
01:24:29,840 --> 01:24:32,519
Speaker 4: the Bucks here. Hope we survive. Hope you guys enjoyed

1757
01:24:32,560 --> 01:24:36,960
Speaker 4: the podcast again. Remember you can follow Sunday six Pack

1758
01:24:37,040 --> 01:24:39,640
Speaker 4: in the Action Network app to see all of the

1759
01:24:39,760 --> 01:24:43,000
Speaker 4: picks down with the app, it's awesome. Follow Stucky at

1760
01:24:43,280 --> 01:24:45,800
Speaker 4: Stucky Too, follow me at Chris Raybon. In the Action

1761
01:24:45,920 --> 01:24:47,920
Speaker 4: Network app, you can see all of our other bets

1762
01:24:48,439 --> 01:24:50,840
Speaker 4: as well as track your own, and you can also

1763
01:24:50,880 --> 01:24:53,760
Speaker 4: find Stucky on Twitter at Stucky two and me on

1764
01:24:53,840 --> 01:24:56,439
Speaker 4: Twitter at Chris Raybon. You can find all of our

1765
01:24:56,479 --> 01:25:01,120
Speaker 4: betting content, including primetime previews, which Stuck and I handle

1766
01:25:01,240 --> 01:25:03,640
Speaker 4: each week. The Sunday and Monday night Island games. We

1767
01:25:03,760 --> 01:25:06,360
Speaker 4: write up and our picks and our and our previews,

1768
01:25:06,760 --> 01:25:09,439
Speaker 4: so you can find those at actionnetwork dot com or

1769
01:25:09,800 --> 01:25:11,400
Speaker 4: read them in the app as well.

1770
01:25:12,600 --> 01:25:16,040
Speaker 3: Hope you guys have good luck this weekend. Let's get

1771
01:25:16,080 --> 01:25:16,840
Speaker 3: this money and.

1772
01:25:16,920 --> 01:25:17,360
Speaker 4: Go to it.

1773
01:25:18,280 --> 01:25:36,120
Speaker 2: No Ravens, We're finished talking