1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:10,160 --> 00:00:13,600 Speaker 2: It's been more than three years since Russia invaded Ukraine, 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,280 Speaker 2: and since then, hundreds of thousands of people have been killed. 4 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:20,440 Speaker 2: President Trump returned to the White House having promised to 5 00:00:20,560 --> 00:00:23,400 Speaker 2: end the war on day one in twenty four hours. 6 00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:26,800 Speaker 2: Of course, that didn't happen, and Trump has grown frustrated 7 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:28,520 Speaker 2: with Russia's president Vladimir Putin. 8 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:31,639 Speaker 3: Is your deadline still standing for Vladimir Putin to agree 9 00:00:31,680 --> 00:00:33,680 Speaker 3: with ceasefire tomorrow or is that fluid now? 10 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:34,720 Speaker 4: It's going to be up to him. 11 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:37,120 Speaker 1: We're gonna see what he has to say. 12 00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:38,080 Speaker 4: It's going to be up well. 13 00:00:38,080 --> 00:00:40,839 Speaker 2: This Friday, those two leaders are scheduled to meet one 14 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 2: on one to talk about the prospects for a peace agreement. 15 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 2: Here's Trump speaking to reporters on Wednesday. 16 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:51,720 Speaker 4: Russia faced any consequences if Vladimir Putin does not agree 17 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:55,120 Speaker 4: to stop the war after your meeting on Friday, Yes, 18 00:00:55,200 --> 00:00:57,640 Speaker 4: they will. What will they will be? 19 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:00,880 Speaker 1: There will be don't have to say there will be 20 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 1: very severe consequences. Yes. 21 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:04,319 Speaker 2: The setting for Friday. 22 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:06,200 Speaker 1: Summit Alaska, of all places. 23 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:09,920 Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Flavia Kraus Jackson is overseeing our coverage of this meeting, 24 00:01:10,120 --> 00:01:13,559 Speaker 2: and she says its location is striking because if. 25 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:17,160 Speaker 1: Your president Vladimir putin Alaska is the perfect venue, it 26 00:01:17,240 --> 00:01:20,360 Speaker 1: isn't lost on the Kremlin. For example, that Friday's summit 27 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 1: is going to be held in the US state that 28 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:25,600 Speaker 1: once belonged to Russia until it was sold for seven 29 00:01:25,600 --> 00:01:28,760 Speaker 1: point two million dollars in eighteen sixty seven, and that 30 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:31,560 Speaker 1: at the time was considered a folly and a bad 31 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:35,240 Speaker 1: deal for the Americans. So you have the scene setting 32 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 1: going into this meeting where you have Trump the property, 33 00:01:38,760 --> 00:01:41,720 Speaker 1: a minded mogul president who might just be ready to 34 00:01:41,720 --> 00:01:43,959 Speaker 1: do a real estate deal that trades land for peace. 35 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 2: This time around, it's land in Ukraine that could be 36 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:51,080 Speaker 2: a bargaining chip, but that country's president, Vladimir Zelenski has 37 00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:56,040 Speaker 2: been insistent Ukraine won't concede any territory to Russia. Zelenski 38 00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:59,000 Speaker 2: spoke to reporters on Wednesday, following a call with other 39 00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 2: European leaders and President Trump. 40 00:02:01,760 --> 00:02:05,600 Speaker 1: Everything in regarding Ukraine needs to be discussed with the Ukraine. 41 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 1: We have to be part of this conversation. 42 00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:12,000 Speaker 2: But Zelenski still doesn't have an invite to Friday's meeting. 43 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:15,200 Speaker 1: Zelenski right now is not at the table. Putin doesn't 44 00:02:15,240 --> 00:02:19,120 Speaker 1: want him there, and he's in the slightly unenviable position 45 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:22,120 Speaker 1: to see what kind of scraps he may be given 46 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:25,120 Speaker 1: and what kind of agency he has. 47 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:31,239 Speaker 2: Ahead of this summit. I wanted to talk to Flavia 48 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:34,040 Speaker 2: about why Russia has decided now is the time to 49 00:02:34,120 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 2: talk to ask her what's likely to happen in Anchorage 50 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:40,520 Speaker 2: when President's Trump and Putin meet, and how significant this 51 00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:45,760 Speaker 2: summit is likely to be. I'm David Gera, and this 52 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:48,600 Speaker 2: is the big take from Bloomberg News Today. On the show, 53 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:52,520 Speaker 2: President Trump heads to Alaska, the last frontier, the forty 54 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:55,120 Speaker 2: nine state, for a face to face meeting with his 55 00:02:55,200 --> 00:03:03,800 Speaker 2: Russian counterparty, Vladimir Putin. Why now? It's a basic but 56 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:07,440 Speaker 2: fundamental question, and Bloomberg's Flavia kraus Jackson and her team 57 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:10,760 Speaker 2: have been trying to answer it. Why did President Putin 58 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:13,480 Speaker 2: decide after a meeting with one of President Trump's advisors, 59 00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:16,520 Speaker 2: Steve Witkoff, to agree to a meeting with Trump. 60 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 1: I think the answer to that is good old fashioned 61 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:23,519 Speaker 1: economic coersion. The Russian economy is just not doing very well, 62 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:27,320 Speaker 1: and what Trump has sort of finally done is pulled 63 00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 1: those leavers that essentially compelled Putin to come to the table. 64 00:03:32,720 --> 00:03:36,080 Speaker 2: President Trump talked about this during an interview on CNBC 65 00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:36,920 Speaker 2: last week. 66 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:39,720 Speaker 4: Putin will stop killing people if you get energy down 67 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:41,160 Speaker 4: another ten dollars a barrel. 68 00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:43,520 Speaker 1: He's gonna have no choice because his economy stinks. 69 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 2: President Trump has threatened these secondary sanctions on China and India, 70 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:51,640 Speaker 2: among other countries, for their oil purchases. How much is 71 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 2: that economic advice really squeezing President Putin? 72 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:57,280 Speaker 1: I think it's absolutely critical, and it's probably the thing 73 00:03:57,320 --> 00:04:00,680 Speaker 1: that people are talking about. The lease growth is all 74 00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:04,120 Speaker 1: revenues have slumped, the budget deficits has hit a record, 75 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:07,960 Speaker 1: inflation and interest rates are very high, and behind the 76 00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:11,440 Speaker 1: walls of the country's banking sector, insiders have been sounding 77 00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:14,400 Speaker 1: the alarm about a looming debt crisis. Now. Until now, 78 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 1: Putn has really tried to maintain economic stability whilst running 79 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:22,480 Speaker 1: a very expensive, what he calls special military operation. And 80 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:26,039 Speaker 1: he's really counting on the incredibly high pain threshold of 81 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:29,880 Speaker 1: Russians to sort of indulge him as he kind of 82 00:04:30,160 --> 00:04:32,920 Speaker 1: spends his way into trying to win this war. 83 00:04:34,720 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 2: For a while, that seemed to work but in recent months, 84 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:42,360 Speaker 2: Russia's wartime economy has shown signs of strain, and Flavia 85 00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 2: says a team of Bloomberg journalists has been looking closely 86 00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 2: at the pressure it's been under. 87 00:04:47,320 --> 00:04:50,800 Speaker 1: We've spoken now to officials, pass and present and scat documents, 88 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:53,640 Speaker 1: and on paper, the banking system looks like it's a 89 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:58,520 Speaker 1: relatively good nick with robust profits. However, what's really happened 90 00:04:58,560 --> 00:05:01,640 Speaker 1: behind the scenes is the Central itself as advice lenders 91 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:04,880 Speaker 1: to focus on restructuring credit instead of recognizing the full 92 00:05:04,960 --> 00:05:08,919 Speaker 1: extent of sarig loans. So what you have really happening 93 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:13,479 Speaker 1: is essentially the perfect storm, which means that right now 94 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 1: Putin is in a position of okay, oil prices are 95 00:05:17,360 --> 00:05:20,760 Speaker 1: where they are, If indeed they drop, I'm in real trouble. 96 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:25,920 Speaker 2: Russia invaded Ukraine in twenty twenty two, at annexed Crimea 97 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:29,240 Speaker 2: in twenty fourteen, and this war is playing out on 98 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:33,359 Speaker 2: Ukrainian soil. But it doesn't seem like these talks in Anchorage, 99 00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:37,760 Speaker 2: Alaska are going to include Ukraine's President, vladimir's Lensky, who's 100 00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 2: been unequivocal that the country is unwilling to forfeit any 101 00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:43,520 Speaker 2: of its territory to Russia. 102 00:05:43,680 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 4: Zelenski stated that any peace deal excluding Kiev would lead 103 00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:52,679 Speaker 4: to dead solutions. Any decisions that are against US, any 104 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:55,880 Speaker 4: decisions that are without Ukraine are at the same time 105 00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:57,320 Speaker 4: decisions against peace. 106 00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:00,840 Speaker 2: What does that tell you his exclusion from how these 107 00:06:00,920 --> 00:06:02,080 Speaker 2: talks are likely to unfold. 108 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:04,120 Speaker 1: I mean, it's very bad news and in a way 109 00:06:04,279 --> 00:06:08,240 Speaker 1: not surprising at all. Trump essentially has not put Putin 110 00:06:08,320 --> 00:06:11,240 Speaker 1: and Zolenski on the same level. He considers Putin a 111 00:06:11,320 --> 00:06:15,599 Speaker 1: peer and Zolensky not to be a peer. He considers 112 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:23,279 Speaker 1: Putin strong and Zelensky weak. And I think what we 113 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:25,760 Speaker 1: witnessed in the Oval office, in those sort of very 114 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:31,240 Speaker 1: shocking and surprising scenes where Zolensky was openly humiliated, your 115 00:06:31,279 --> 00:06:34,800 Speaker 1: country is a big drup. I know you're you're not 116 00:06:34,839 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 1: winning this. It became very clear even then that Dolensky 117 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:42,440 Speaker 1: really has no power in this relationship, and that the 118 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:46,080 Speaker 1: best he can do is not publicly make a fuss, 119 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:50,120 Speaker 1: certainly not complain, and try and work behind the scenes. 120 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:52,599 Speaker 1: Trump has promised to keep him a breast and to 121 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:56,240 Speaker 1: call him later. I don't exclude this being Trump, that 122 00:06:56,440 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 1: something might happen where they're in a meeting in Anchorage, 123 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 1: and perhaps Trump decides to call zelenskip put him on speaker. 124 00:07:04,960 --> 00:07:09,000 Speaker 1: All of these things are possible when you're trying to 125 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:11,320 Speaker 1: work out what someone like Trump could do. But right 126 00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 1: now Zelenski is on the outs and he has to 127 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:17,040 Speaker 1: make do with a very bad situation coming up. 128 00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 2: What we know about how these negotiations are going to 129 00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:22,240 Speaker 2: play out, what's likely to be on the table this week, 130 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:25,080 Speaker 2: and what President Trump hopes he's going to get out 131 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:36,080 Speaker 2: of the summit. Earlier in the week, President Trump alarmed 132 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:39,160 Speaker 2: European leaders by suggesting that a peace deal in Ukraine 133 00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:43,800 Speaker 2: would require land swapping. He's since softened that stance, reportedly 134 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 2: telling European leaders on Wednesday that only Ukraine could negotiate 135 00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:51,120 Speaker 2: territorial concessions. So what is on the table for this 136 00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:53,800 Speaker 2: meeting between President's Trump and Putin? On Friday? 137 00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:58,440 Speaker 1: Putin essentially wants Ukraine to seet five territories, and as 138 00:07:58,520 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 1: early as August, Russia occupied nearly a fifth of Ukraine, 139 00:08:03,160 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 1: and it's offensive as stretch across the front line of 140 00:08:05,640 --> 00:08:08,119 Speaker 1: more than one thousand kilometers that's six hundred and twenty 141 00:08:08,120 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 1: one miles, so Russia essentially wants to sort of keep 142 00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:14,400 Speaker 1: that even some of the territories that it doesn't actually 143 00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:16,920 Speaker 1: completely control. And what you have on the other side 144 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:19,800 Speaker 1: is Zelenski and his European allies very committed to the 145 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:23,120 Speaker 1: principle that international borders cannot be changed by force, and 146 00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:26,680 Speaker 1: Zelenski has repeatedly said that Ukraine's goal is to restore 147 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:30,120 Speaker 1: its borders to what they were when the country gained independence, 148 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:33,400 Speaker 1: and that includes Crimea. Now, the reality is that Crimea 149 00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:36,560 Speaker 1: has been lost. It was a next in twenty fourteen, 150 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:40,520 Speaker 1: and there is very much an understanding that Ukraine will 151 00:08:40,559 --> 00:08:42,720 Speaker 1: not be able to get that back. But you know, 152 00:08:42,840 --> 00:08:46,320 Speaker 1: as everyone knows from you know, good negotiating tactics is 153 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:48,800 Speaker 1: that you don't come to the negotiating table sort of 154 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:51,880 Speaker 1: essentially already having given away the farm. And I think 155 00:08:51,920 --> 00:08:55,560 Speaker 1: there's a lot of concern that essentially coming here. The 156 00:08:55,640 --> 00:08:59,240 Speaker 1: chronology of all this is incredibly important. You know, first 157 00:08:59,280 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 1: you need to have this he's fire, and then you 158 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:04,080 Speaker 1: talk about the terms. Whilst Putin is very much coming 159 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:07,000 Speaker 1: with the idea of like give me this and then 160 00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:10,280 Speaker 1: I will consider the rest, Zelenski is no fool and 161 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:13,320 Speaker 1: the Europeans have absolutely no leverage beyond the rhetoric that 162 00:09:13,400 --> 00:09:19,080 Speaker 1: they use aggressively. They understand that Ukraine will lose territory, 163 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:23,160 Speaker 1: but you know which territories and how much is really 164 00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:27,160 Speaker 1: absolutely key. One of the absolute red lines for Putin 165 00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:31,480 Speaker 1: is NATO membership. It does not want Ukraine ever to 166 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:33,880 Speaker 1: be part of NATO, so I expect that to come 167 00:09:33,960 --> 00:09:35,360 Speaker 1: up as well. 168 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:39,720 Speaker 2: All this has made European leaders very anxious, concerned President 169 00:09:39,760 --> 00:09:43,040 Speaker 2: Putin is going to convince President Trump to support Putin's 170 00:09:43,040 --> 00:09:46,600 Speaker 2: demands for territory. Trump set his call with European leaders 171 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:48,520 Speaker 2: on Wednesday was very friendly. 172 00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:50,760 Speaker 1: We had a very good call. He was on the call. 173 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:54,160 Speaker 1: President Zelenski was on the call. I would rate it 174 00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 1: at ten. 175 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:57,720 Speaker 2: And after the call, German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz said he 176 00:09:57,760 --> 00:09:59,640 Speaker 2: had hope for peace in Ukraine. 177 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:03,160 Speaker 1: We as Europeans are doing everything we can to set 178 00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:05,880 Speaker 1: the agenda, help set the agenda for that meeting in 179 00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:11,000 Speaker 1: Anchorage a fold cut, hoping that Donald Trump had success 180 00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:11,559 Speaker 1: in that meeting. 181 00:10:13,920 --> 00:10:18,319 Speaker 2: The anxiety among European leaders is palpable here. They've had 182 00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 2: a couple of meetings since this summit was announced. To 183 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:25,359 Speaker 2: what extent is President Trump taking their concern into consideration 184 00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:27,080 Speaker 2: as he prepares to go to this summit. 185 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:29,760 Speaker 1: I think the simple answer is not very much. I 186 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:31,719 Speaker 1: think this is a very important point to make the 187 00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:34,000 Speaker 1: role of JD. Vance and all this. He is one 188 00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:38,200 Speaker 1: of the most powerful vps that we've seen in recent history. 189 00:10:38,480 --> 00:10:41,960 Speaker 1: He has very strong views on Ukraine. His address to 190 00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:44,840 Speaker 1: the Munich Security Conference, I think was one of those 191 00:10:44,960 --> 00:10:49,160 Speaker 1: historic moments when he really laid there his contempt for 192 00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:51,480 Speaker 1: Europe and what he thought of its leaders. 193 00:10:51,760 --> 00:10:57,120 Speaker 3: Trump administration is very concerned with European security and believes 194 00:10:57,240 --> 00:11:01,040 Speaker 3: that we can come to a reasonable settlement between Russia 195 00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:04,040 Speaker 3: and Ukraine. And we also believe that it's important in 196 00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:06,400 Speaker 3: the coming years for Europe to step up in a 197 00:11:06,400 --> 00:11:08,800 Speaker 3: big way to provide for its own defense. 198 00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:12,640 Speaker 2: In that speech, Vice President Vance went on to criticize 199 00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:17,040 Speaker 2: European leaders for allegedly suppressing free speech and for not taking, 200 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:19,760 Speaker 2: as he sees it, a hard enough stance on migration 201 00:11:20,160 --> 00:11:23,040 Speaker 2: and other issues that Trump administration has prioritized. 202 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:27,200 Speaker 1: And I think that's a view very much that Trump shares. 203 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:30,520 Speaker 1: So he has this sort of personal relationships with the 204 00:11:30,679 --> 00:11:34,280 Speaker 1: likes of you know, UK's kissed Arma or Emmanuel Macron, 205 00:11:34,320 --> 00:11:36,720 Speaker 1: the President of France, that he may or may not like, 206 00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:41,240 Speaker 1: but I think facts have shown that arguably the UK 207 00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:45,960 Speaker 1: and France are the strongest European military powers, they are 208 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:49,400 Speaker 1: not in any real position to help Ukraine. Ukraine knows it, 209 00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:53,240 Speaker 1: Russia knows it, the Americans know it. Funnily enough, the Germans, 210 00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:56,480 Speaker 1: who are obviously after the Second World War completely taken 211 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 1: out of the picture, have shown much more of a 212 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:03,080 Speaker 1: willing life to kind of step up in military spending 213 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:05,439 Speaker 1: and do their bits. But what you're looking at right 214 00:12:05,440 --> 00:12:07,920 Speaker 1: now from the European perspective is that they're not able 215 00:12:08,000 --> 00:12:11,480 Speaker 1: to scale up anywhere near the level that the US 216 00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:14,640 Speaker 1: want for years, and what you're looking on the ground 217 00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:19,240 Speaker 1: is a war of attrition where Russia is consistently and 218 00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:23,400 Speaker 1: persistently gaining out dated at a slow rate, and within 219 00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:26,600 Speaker 1: three years you're looking at a very very different picture. 220 00:12:26,720 --> 00:12:30,319 Speaker 1: And Europe simply does not have three years. So what 221 00:12:30,360 --> 00:12:33,560 Speaker 1: the calculus here is that the US is saying is like, 222 00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:36,839 Speaker 1: we need to make a deal. Now I've lost my patients. 223 00:12:37,360 --> 00:12:39,840 Speaker 1: I will walk away. And if the US walk away, 224 00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 1: then that is essentially laying the groundwork for Russia to 225 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:46,160 Speaker 1: just come in and eventually take over. 226 00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:49,600 Speaker 2: We know that President Trump is no fan of these 227 00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:53,720 Speaker 2: big multilateral summits, but he does love these one on 228 00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:55,800 Speaker 2: one summits. He had them in his first term in 229 00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:58,400 Speaker 2: Helsinki with President Putting. He had another one in Singapore. 230 00:12:58,920 --> 00:13:01,319 Speaker 2: What are those past summits tell us about the way 231 00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:03,480 Speaker 2: this is going to look and how it's likely to 232 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:03,960 Speaker 2: do unfold. 233 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:08,240 Speaker 1: It's a very interesting thing to ponder about the number 234 00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:11,160 Speaker 1: of times that these two men have met. They're about 235 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:14,760 Speaker 1: five or six. The most critical and most important, of course, 236 00:13:15,080 --> 00:13:19,280 Speaker 1: was the summit in Helsinki. The world wanted to see 237 00:13:19,360 --> 00:13:21,800 Speaker 1: us get along. We are. I think it's worth sort 238 00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:24,080 Speaker 1: of reflecting how different the world was at the time. 239 00:13:24,160 --> 00:13:26,640 Speaker 1: I mean, Finland was considered one of sort of the 240 00:13:26,679 --> 00:13:30,960 Speaker 1: whisperers to Putin and obviously since the invasion, Finland has 241 00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:34,000 Speaker 1: joined NATO, so it sort of reflects a very different 242 00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:38,760 Speaker 1: geopolitical context of the time. But that was considered a 243 00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:41,400 Speaker 1: pretty humiliating moment for Trump. I think it'll be very 244 00:13:41,400 --> 00:13:44,240 Speaker 1: interesting to see if the two of them come to 245 00:13:44,280 --> 00:13:47,360 Speaker 1: the stage again in Alaska and what kind of lessons 246 00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:51,520 Speaker 1: Trump and his advisors will have drawn from that. What 247 00:13:51,559 --> 00:13:54,439 Speaker 1: we do know is that they've had an awful lot 248 00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:58,600 Speaker 1: of conversations on the phone since Trump got reelected, and 249 00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:01,960 Speaker 1: as one of our sort of diet show, those conversations 250 00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:04,920 Speaker 1: are pretty interesting because Trump seemed to sort of buy 251 00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:07,920 Speaker 1: into a lot of the Putin propaganda. So every time 252 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:10,080 Speaker 1: he seemed to get off the phone with Putin, he 253 00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:14,600 Speaker 1: was essentially parenting things like, for example, Zolenski was not 254 00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:19,520 Speaker 1: legitimately elected, or you know, all kinds of talking points 255 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:22,200 Speaker 1: that would make the kinment very happy. We just spent 256 00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:26,480 Speaker 1: two and a half hours talking to Vladimir Putin, and 257 00:14:26,520 --> 00:14:28,960 Speaker 1: I think some progress has been made. So one thing 258 00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:32,840 Speaker 1: to be watching out for, very very carefully is how 259 00:14:32,880 --> 00:14:36,200 Speaker 1: Trump comes out of those meetings. You know, whether it'll 260 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:38,400 Speaker 1: be on truth social, whether he comes down and speaks 261 00:14:38,440 --> 00:14:41,760 Speaker 1: to reporters. He seems so said that he'll sort of 262 00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:44,800 Speaker 1: work out very very quickly what Putin wants within two minutes. 263 00:14:44,920 --> 00:14:48,120 Speaker 1: And this is going to be a feeling out expedition. 264 00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:51,320 Speaker 1: But you know, as I said, I think we'll get 265 00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:54,000 Speaker 1: a very clear sense of whether Putin has managed to 266 00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:56,000 Speaker 1: play Trump by what Trump says. 267 00:14:56,320 --> 00:14:58,760 Speaker 2: Do we have an understanding of the quality of the 268 00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:01,000 Speaker 2: relationship between these two leaders right now. 269 00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:04,760 Speaker 1: I think it's very hard to judge the quality of 270 00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:11,000 Speaker 1: that relationship, you know, and clearly Putin wanted Trump elected 271 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:13,400 Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen and was gleeful, and there was the 272 00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:16,240 Speaker 1: you know, the whole thing about Russian interference into what 273 00:15:16,360 --> 00:15:19,560 Speaker 1: degree that happened. And now that that relationship has I 274 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:22,840 Speaker 1: think evolved to a certain degree, I don't think Putin 275 00:15:22,880 --> 00:15:26,160 Speaker 1: has gone maybe quite as much from Trumps as maybe 276 00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:31,600 Speaker 1: he wanted. I think for observers, even Kremlin observers, it 277 00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:34,120 Speaker 1: was very interesting to see to what extent, at what 278 00:15:34,200 --> 00:15:38,520 Speaker 1: point would the penny drop with Trump like that Putin 279 00:15:38,600 --> 00:15:41,240 Speaker 1: was essentially stringing him along, and that took a lot 280 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:45,400 Speaker 1: longer than I think most people thought. Until Trump started 281 00:15:45,440 --> 00:15:48,840 Speaker 1: saying some even vaguely critical things about Putin, saying well, 282 00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:50,920 Speaker 1: I'm starting to get patient, or this is not this 283 00:15:51,040 --> 00:15:54,160 Speaker 1: is not good. He seemed much more willing to throw 284 00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:58,720 Speaker 1: Selensk under a US rather than ever question whether Putin's 285 00:15:59,080 --> 00:16:01,640 Speaker 1: intentions were genuine in terms of peace. 286 00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:03,880 Speaker 2: I was going to lob at you what I know 287 00:16:03,920 --> 00:16:06,280 Speaker 2: is an unfair question, which is what President Trump's game 288 00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:09,960 Speaker 2: plan is for these talks. But you mention his impatience 289 00:16:10,040 --> 00:16:13,360 Speaker 2: with how this war has unfolded and how long it's lasted. 290 00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:16,040 Speaker 2: Do we have any sense of what he hopes to 291 00:16:16,280 --> 00:16:17,920 Speaker 2: get out of this? Yes, a deal, but what a 292 00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:19,680 Speaker 2: favorable deal looks like to President Trump. 293 00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 1: I'm not even saying this jokingly. I think he wants 294 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:25,920 Speaker 1: a Nobel Peace Prize. He desperately hankers for that kind 295 00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:29,000 Speaker 1: of recognition that he feels as one of his predecessors 296 00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:32,320 Speaker 1: where ok Obama had. I don't think he really cares 297 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:34,800 Speaker 1: very much about what kind of deal it is and 298 00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:38,000 Speaker 1: how favorable or unfavorable it is to Ukraine. He just 299 00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:40,800 Speaker 1: wants to get it done. I think that's a very 300 00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:45,800 Speaker 1: important sort of acknowledgment to make, because for the Europeans 301 00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:49,560 Speaker 1: who are essentially living it very closely, if it is 302 00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:53,120 Speaker 1: a bad deal, the outlook is that Putin will do 303 00:16:53,160 --> 00:16:55,480 Speaker 1: what he historically has done in the past, is like, 304 00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:59,360 Speaker 1: you will take what he can the ceasefire. You'll buy 305 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:02,120 Speaker 1: a little bit of time and then come back, you know. 306 00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:05,080 Speaker 1: And so there's a sense of we're pursuing policies of 307 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:08,159 Speaker 1: appeasement where we sort of try and give Putin something 308 00:17:08,600 --> 00:17:10,600 Speaker 1: in the hopes that he goes away. But he will 309 00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 1: keep coming back. I think from Trump's perspective, he's thinking 310 00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:16,280 Speaker 1: more of like, let me get this done. This is 311 00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:18,600 Speaker 1: something that I promise to do within twenty four hours 312 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:22,760 Speaker 1: of my presidency. He's into legacy building, he wants a 313 00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 1: chief peace in the Middle East. He's got very grand goals. 314 00:17:26,240 --> 00:17:28,200 Speaker 1: And for him to be able to walk away from 315 00:17:28,240 --> 00:17:31,000 Speaker 1: this saying well, this is the deal, take it or 316 00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:33,840 Speaker 1: leave it, and if you don't take it, it's not 317 00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:34,479 Speaker 1: my problem. 318 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:36,560 Speaker 2: Flavia. Thank you very much. 319 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:37,320 Speaker 1: Thank you. 320 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:46,640 Speaker 2: This is The Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gura. 321 00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:49,399 Speaker 2: To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access 322 00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:52,760 Speaker 2: to all of Bloomberg dot com, subscribe today at Bloomberg 323 00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:56,280 Speaker 2: dot com slash podcast offer. If you like this episode, 324 00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:58,440 Speaker 2: make sure to follow and review The Big Take wherever 325 00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:00,800 Speaker 2: you listen to podcasts. It helps people find the show. 326 00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:03,040 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.