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Speaker 1: Hello, everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm

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Speaker 1: Ryan Warmley, joined today by Derek Brown and by Tom Strachan. Guys,

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Speaker 1: we are talking wide receiver breakout candidates, one of everybody's

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Speaker 1: favorite topics every single season, because these are often guys

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Speaker 1: that end up sort of defining the season. They are

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Speaker 1: guys that end up winning you your league oftentimes our

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Speaker 1: breakout candidates, particularly at wide receiver. It's very fun to

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Speaker 1: hit on the right guy here when you can. So

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Speaker 1: we've got a couple different categories here, gonna run through

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Speaker 1: about a dozen names. We've kind of designated these as

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Speaker 1: second year guys. We're looking at breakout guys that are

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Speaker 1: maybe currently behind in alpha, that could you really take

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Speaker 1: a step forward in the right opportunity. And then we're

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Speaker 1: kind of gonna wrap with what we have designated league

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Speaker 1: winners hiding in playing sit. So we're gonna hit on

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Speaker 1: all that throughout today's episode. As a reminder, all of

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Speaker 1: our twenty twenty five consensus rankings and tears can be

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Speaker 1: found at fantasypros dot com slash rankings. Let's dive right, guys,

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Speaker 1: We're gonna start with those second year guys deebro who

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Speaker 1: do you have for us?

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Speaker 2: Man?

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Speaker 3: The guy that I want to make sure I'm leaving

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Speaker 3: almost every single draft with and I've done to this

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Speaker 3: point is Ricky Pearsall. And people that have been tuning

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Speaker 3: in for all these offseason shows got to know where

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Speaker 3: I'm going with this. I mean, Piersoll flashed in the

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Speaker 3: final two weeks of last year wide receiver seven, Wide

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Speaker 3: receiver fourteen, and weekly scoring Crush had a thirty percent

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Speaker 3: first read target share two point eight four yards per

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Speaker 3: route run. The big thing for Ricky that really submitted

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Speaker 3: this for me was I went back and watched all

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Speaker 3: of his all twenty two from the preseason so far,

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Speaker 3: and you see the growth in both. He looks more

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Speaker 3: explosive of the line, looks a crisper in and out

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Speaker 3: of his breaks, and the rapport with Brock Purdy has

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Speaker 3: grown leafs and bounds like based off of camp and

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Speaker 3: the offseason workouts and stuff. I mean, there's one play

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Speaker 3: that I keep going back to versus the Raiders, where

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Speaker 3: you see Piersalls running across or going across the field

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Speaker 3: and he's gonna get washed out in his own coverage.

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Speaker 3: Party breaks open and Pearsaw just stops his route, sits

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Speaker 3: down in the middle of his own coverage and was

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Speaker 3: like party knew he was going to do it, and

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Speaker 3: laces him for the perfect throw. And it's like that's rapport.

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Speaker 3: That is what offseason work looks like on an NFL field,

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Speaker 3: the ability for both these guys to be on the

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Speaker 3: same page. And now everything is coalescing around Pearsaw in

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Speaker 3: that offense, like he's gonna be the guy that is

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Speaker 3: competing with George Kittle for the team leading targets. Second

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Speaker 3: year of breakout is here, boys.

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Speaker 1: His real time ADP, which you can find on Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Pros is wide receiver thirty five. Where should he be ranked?

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Speaker 3: Debro? I just moved him up yet again because I

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Speaker 3: want to make sure that, like with real time ADP,

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Speaker 3: I'm staying ahead of consensus and not like ridiculously aggressively,

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Speaker 3: but I do. I have moved him up to wide

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Speaker 3: receiver twenty six.

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Speaker 1: Oh okay, so that is significantly higher than ADP. Tom, What

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Speaker 1: do you think?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I agree with a lot of what

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Speaker 2: Debro's saying, Like I definitely want to see this breakout.

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Speaker 3: I wasn't.

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Speaker 2: I'm not quite as aggressive because I didn't quite see

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Speaker 2: as much last year as I wanted to. And obviously

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Speaker 2: all this is caveat by saying, of course he was

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Speaker 2: recovering from an incredible sort of like freak accident injury.

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Speaker 2: But he didn't really earn targets at an astronomical rate

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Speaker 2: last year. You know, averaged zero point one five targets

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Speaker 2: per out run. That was seventy seventh among wide receivers

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Speaker 2: in the time period that he came back from Week

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Speaker 2: seven to the end of the season. In that point,

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Speaker 2: we did have games where like George Kittle missed out,

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Speaker 2: there was no Brandon Aiyuk, and you know, he had

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Speaker 2: games where he was goose egging and getting nothing. And

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Speaker 2: the huge blow up game in Week seventeen which helped

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Speaker 2: somebody win two million dollars or whatever it was on

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Speaker 2: Bestball Manior on Underdog. That was against the Lions, who

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Speaker 2: will have the second most fantasy points to wide receivers.

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Speaker 2: So there's just little holes that I can poke in it.

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Speaker 2: But I do believe that he can take the leap

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Speaker 2: this year, having a much cleaner off season, and I

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Speaker 2: think that anytime that the Niners put first round draft

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Speaker 2: capitol into a player I've got to have some faith

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Speaker 2: that there's a lot of talent there that they can

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Speaker 2: really maximize.

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Speaker 1: Almost identical real time ADP for Ricky Pearsal and Chris Alave, Tom,

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Speaker 1: who would you prefer those two go?

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Speaker 2: Ricky Piersol. I'm not in Saints whatsoever.

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Speaker 1: I'm assuming Dro that's very easy for you. I wouldn't

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Speaker 1: even ask, honestly, I know you're going fear Saw.

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Speaker 3: I think the line is probably better Ricky Pearsall or

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Speaker 3: James and Williams.

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Speaker 2: Guys, I'm going jam over see.

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Speaker 3: I have Ricky Pearsall right above him.

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Speaker 1: Williams is a little more than a full round hire

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Speaker 1: in ADP, so they are. There's like a little bit

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Speaker 1: of a gap there. That one I think is interesting

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Speaker 1: because you can paint kind of the upside picture for

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Speaker 1: both of them if you want.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I'm on team Piersoll for that one, only because,

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Speaker 3: like as Tom was kind of talking about, we hear

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Speaker 3: about all this stuff about JMO and the off season

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Speaker 3: and stuff like that, do we really think he's gonna

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Speaker 3: like take another step and become like a twenty four

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Speaker 3: percent target cheer kind of guy. I just don't know

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Speaker 3: if I see that So that's again kind of where

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Speaker 3: I'm splitting here is here.

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Speaker 1: There is a name that I'm going to ask you

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Speaker 1: about this name and to Piersal, but it's a name

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Speaker 1: that's going to come up later in the show. So

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Speaker 1: I'm going to save it for when we get to

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Speaker 1: that point because I think it's a really good head

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Speaker 1: to head who would you prefer? But I think Piersall

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Speaker 1: is a great pick, Like I want to get him

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Speaker 1: in a lot of places. Like the simple to put

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Speaker 1: a bow on this conversation is you should invest in

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Speaker 1: Ricky Piersall. This is a bet worth making this year.

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Speaker 3: Yep, agreed, Tom.

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Speaker 1: Who's your first second year player?

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Speaker 2: It's Xavier Worthy. Now, obviously today we finally got the

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Speaker 2: news that Russia Rice is going to be suspended for

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Speaker 2: six games of the season, But it should have been

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Speaker 2: a case of before now that Xavier Worthy's ADP was

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Speaker 2: going up. We knew for a little while that this

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Speaker 2: was the kind of length of suspension that we were

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Speaker 2: looking at. And while Rashi Rice's ADP dipped a little bit,

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Speaker 2: Xavier Worthy's was higher. And then when we got the

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Speaker 2: news of it Russia Rice might not get suspended, it

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Speaker 2: dipped and it's never really come back up. But I

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Speaker 2: just think that he's primed because by the time that

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Speaker 2: Rashi Rice comes back, he'll have missed for the last

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Speaker 2: twenty three games, including the playoffs that the Chiefs have played.

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Speaker 2: That's a huge amount of time for Xavi Worthy to

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Speaker 2: be able to establish himself, develop a role, for Andy

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Speaker 2: Reid to learn how he can maximize him. And I think,

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Speaker 2: you know, it's fair to say that we've plenty of

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Speaker 2: fans out there of Andy Reid in the way that

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Speaker 2: he can maximize talent. Last year, the one kind of

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Speaker 2: part of Xavier Worthy's profile that was missing was the

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Speaker 2: downfield threat that we thought we could see. He had

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Speaker 2: seventeen passes center his way of twenty plus yards last

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Speaker 2: year and only caught three of them, but it was

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Speaker 2: a forty one percent catchable target rate on those targets,

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Speaker 2: which ranked sixty first among wide receivers with ten plus

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Speaker 2: deep targets. All off season, Patrick Mahomes has been going

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Speaker 2: on and on and on about how much of an

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Speaker 2: emphasis he's put on developing the deep ball better now. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: Matt Nagi has been a bit of a curse on

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Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes since he came back to the Chiefs, and

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Speaker 2: maybe it doesn't transpire, but I've got to believe that

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Speaker 2: Patrick mahomes the best quarterback like that possibly ever, you know,

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Speaker 2: definitely the best quarterback in pure football terms in the

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Speaker 2: NFL right now. Can get that going. And I just

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Speaker 2: think that it doesn't necessarily need to be Xavier Worthy

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Speaker 2: or Rashie Rice, but of a price to Xavier Worthy's

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Speaker 2: app right now in redraft to get you off, it's

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Speaker 2: a strong stop that I'm very much buying.

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Speaker 1: Debro. You have been the low man Onworthy in our

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Speaker 1: staff rankings in ECR he is sorry, I've flipped off

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Speaker 1: that page. Will you have him at thirty six? Ericson

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Speaker 1: twenty one fits at twenty three, so that's significantly lower.

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Speaker 1: I got to pull it up here at ECR He's

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Speaker 1: wide receiver at twenty six, so you're about ten spots

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Speaker 1: lower than her on on your ranking on Worthy. What

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Speaker 1: is it that you're not seeing here?

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Speaker 3: So in real time ADP, he's around with the boys

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Speaker 3: of ranking in wide receiver twenty four. I just to me,

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Speaker 3: I don't see any meat on the bone where you're

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Speaker 3: drafting him there, Like I don't see him coming back

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Speaker 3: and being like producing as a top fifteen wide receiver.

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Speaker 3: Does the Rashive Rice missing six games definitely help him? Yes,

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Speaker 3: helps him a ton because he's gonna be in the

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Speaker 3: Rahi Rice roll and he hasn't seen like he hasn't

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Speaker 3: produced in anything but the Rashi Rice roll in Manufacturer

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Speaker 3: touches close to the line of scrimmage. I know Tom

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Speaker 3: pointed to Patrick Mahomes struggles with the deep ball. I

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Speaker 3: will echo that, but also add on top of it

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Speaker 3: when he's at when Rashi Rice comes back, Exavier Worthy's

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Speaker 3: not going to play in the Reshi Rice role. He's

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Speaker 3: going to play the field stretcher role. And if Mahomes

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Speaker 3: doesn't bounce back, he can talk about it all he

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Speaker 3: freaking wants to. It's not going to make it any

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Speaker 3: more accurate on deep ball as much as he talks

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Speaker 3: about it in the freaking media. Matt Naggey's not going anywhere.

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Speaker 3: So Mahomes and I want to put this in context

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Speaker 3: for people that are just now tuning back into shows.

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Speaker 3: Mahomes has been a bottom ten level deep ball throw

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Speaker 3: over the last two years, so he could talk about it.

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Speaker 3: I want to see it actually happen and the part

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Speaker 3: about Worthy that really gets me, man, is that we

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Speaker 3: didn't see him separate as a downfield threat. I mean,

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Speaker 3: in weeks one through twelve, when he was the deep

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Speaker 3: threat one hundred and twenty four or wide receivers, he

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Speaker 3: was ninety six in separation, one hundred and eleventh in

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Speaker 3: route win rate. And then in the Rashi rice role,

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Speaker 3: he wasn't that much better. He was seventy fifth in

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Speaker 3: that or at least if you zoom out overall, excuse me,

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Speaker 3: if you zoom out overall and put all of this

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Speaker 3: stuff together, seventy fifth in separate, eighty six on the route

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Speaker 3: win rate. So he's not getting schemed up targets, which

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Speaker 3: he will get for six games. And that's why I

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Speaker 3: bumped him up into the wide receiver three range. I

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Speaker 3: just don't see where things like. I feel like we're

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Speaker 3: looking at everything for Worthy through rose colored glasses. And

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Speaker 3: if this wasn't the Kansas City Chiefs and he wasn't

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Speaker 3: tied to Patrick Mahomes, that is writing a lot of

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Speaker 3: checks for Worthy that I don't know if he can

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Speaker 3: catch because he doesn't have the size also to be

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Speaker 3: a red zone threat outside of scheme touch.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I definitely agree he needs to play tougher,

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Speaker 2: but I just think, like, you know what we saw

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Speaker 2: from him down to stretch last year, and this is

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Speaker 2: part of my argument, but like he's going to have

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Speaker 2: established a role. Maybe, yes, he gets moved out of

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Speaker 2: a Rashie Rice roll, but he was averaging fifteen point

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Speaker 2: six PPR points from Week eleven, which was to wide

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Speaker 2: receiver nineteen in that time, and he only saw free

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Speaker 1: All right, we have another second year player here that

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Speaker 1: you guys picked the same one because you couldn't come

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Speaker 1: to any kind of agreement and split the baby. You

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Speaker 1: guys both had to have your guy Debro. Why is

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Speaker 1: this Europe? And by the way, I will say Tom

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Speaker 1: got to the sheet first, so really Tom picked him first,

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Speaker 1: and then he goes, I couldn't possibly be bothered to

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Speaker 1: come up with another name, so I'm going to steal

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Speaker 1: this name I did.

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Speaker 3: Here's the thing. I didn't feel enough conviction in any

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Speaker 3: other second year wide receiver to sit here and throw

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Speaker 3: the names out of here, because I don't want to

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Speaker 3: be disingenuous to our audience and I want to give

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Speaker 3: people real players that I truly believe in. And in

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Speaker 3: that point, I'm going to let Tom kick this off

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Speaker 3: because he again, he got to the sheet first. This

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Speaker 3: is his dude. And I'm adding on top of that,

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Speaker 3: although I will throw my hat the ring for being

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Speaker 3: amongst the og coke heads in the room.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'll say, like I was slow to Jalen

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Speaker 2: Cocer last year, he wasn't somebody that I was drafting everywhere.

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Speaker 2: You know, I play a lot of best ball and

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Speaker 2: I'm always looking at these late round dart throws, and

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Speaker 2: this year I have been hammering Jalen Cocer in the

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Speaker 2: late rounds because the writing's been on the wall. It's

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Speaker 2: been so obvious from the coach speak over the last

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Speaker 2: few weeks. Like you go back to I pull this

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Speaker 2: quote from the coach speak index Discord Dave Canalis. We're

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Speaker 2: going to play the best guys, the guys that we

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Speaker 2: can count on, the guys that made plays for guys

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Speaker 2: that make the catch. Jalen has really showed to be

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Speaker 2: one of the more reliable guys that we have, and

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Speaker 2: he makes strong players on the ball and they want

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Speaker 2: to get him out there, Like Jalen Coca is always

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Speaker 2: going to be a little bit boom or bust for

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Speaker 2: fantacy on the nature of it. The way that he wins,

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Speaker 2: which is downfield, Like he had the twelve highest catch

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Speaker 2: rate on past his fifteen plus yards downfield among wide

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Speaker 2: receivers with ten or more targets. That's a really impressive return.

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Speaker 2: What I would like to see is him developing a

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Speaker 2: bit more and getting some easier stuff and maybe we

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Speaker 2: see that because for the second player in a row,

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Speaker 2: we're talking about a guy who had significant news today

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Speaker 2: with Adam Field and being traded to the Vikings. The

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Speaker 2: fact that the Panthers, who are desperately trying to surround

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Speaker 2: Bryce Young with more talent, with more players who can

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Speaker 2: play to a strong ability, felt comfortable doing that speaks

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Speaker 2: volumes to what they've got from him. I think overall

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Speaker 2: we're going to see a huge uptick in this offense

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Speaker 2: because of Tete Rowa. That's going to be infinitely better

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Speaker 2: than what the situation was last year. And I just

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Speaker 2: think that Jalen Cocher is a better player of Venzavier Lagetty.

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Speaker 2: You had better yards per route run. He was consistently

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Speaker 2: best separator, and he turned tags into production at a

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Speaker 2: better rate vin Xavier lagett did.

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Speaker 1: He's also basically free looking. At real time ADP, he's

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Speaker 1: wide receiver seventy six, one hundred and sixty third. Overall,

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Speaker 1: that's what like a fourteenth or fifteenth round pick. Some

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Speaker 1: of the names with similar again not ADP that you'll

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Speaker 1: see in your drafting real time ADP when drafts are

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Speaker 1: actually happening within the last day, in the last week,

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Speaker 1: His ADP is amongst other names at receiver like Tyler Lockett,

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Speaker 1: Pat Bryant, Quentin Johnston, Darius Slayton, Jalen McMillan, who is

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Speaker 1: going to be injured for a large chunk of the season,

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Speaker 1: has a similar ADP to him. Jack Bash who is

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Speaker 1: not impressed. Michael Wilson, I mean.

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Speaker 2: Like, so little upside?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So what is the upside for Coker? Debro Like,

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Speaker 1: what is like, Hey, this actually does really hit. What's

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Speaker 1: the upside? Uh?

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Speaker 3: So I moved him up. He is my wide receiver

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Speaker 3: fifty two right now. I have him in the one

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Speaker 3: twenties right now. And the upside is that, first of all,

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Speaker 3: he is going to be from the word go, and

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Speaker 3: I'm not being hyperbolic about this, he is the Carolina

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Speaker 3: Panthers wide receiver too. I emphatically agree with Tom on this.

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Speaker 3: He out targeted xavierly Get last year. He's going to

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Speaker 3: do it again this year because nothing has changed. If anything,

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Speaker 3: Coker has gotten even better. And the upside is what

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Speaker 3: we saw last year. Like in the six games he

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Speaker 3: played with Bryan Shung at least sixty eight percent of

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Speaker 3: the snaps, he had three games where he was a

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Speaker 3: top thirty six scorer in PPR points. On the week,

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Speaker 3: he earned an eighteen percent target chair, He had one

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Speaker 3: point eight nine yards per route run and almost a

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Speaker 3: twenty four percent first reach. Heare the upside for Jaillen

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Speaker 3: Cocher is to be a weekly wide receiver three, and

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Speaker 3: I think that's possible. So looking at where the bucket

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Speaker 3: of players that I moved him into, it's all these

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Speaker 3: guys that are borderline wide receiver three slash fours. Now

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Speaker 3: I know I have him at wide receiver fifty two

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Speaker 3: and is a long tier of guys that all depending

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Speaker 3: on how many passes they catch or touchdown luck and

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Speaker 3: things like that, they could all be separated by a

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Speaker 3: grand total of like three points per game in fantasy

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Speaker 3: on a weekly basis, and Cocher is the guy. Again,

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Speaker 3: we go back to this. We we bank on talented rookies,

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Speaker 3: and we bank on those guys in the second year

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Speaker 3: for sophomore breakouts. Jalen Cocher is the one where you're

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Speaker 3: making that bet for basically free. And if Bryce Young

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Speaker 3: can be the guy we saw in weeks twelve through

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Speaker 3: eighteen last year, and you truly believe in Dave Canelis

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Speaker 3: and Ted Roe McMillen can open up other parts of

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Speaker 3: this offense. It's both downfield and otherwise that we haven't

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Speaker 3: seen yet. Jalen Cocher can easily be a wide receiver

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Speaker 3: three in your lineup on a weekly basis.

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Speaker 2: When we're talking about guys VISTIQ, it's not going to

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Speaker 2: apply to every league from the get go. You are

357
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Speaker 2: going to wait for the bye weeks, But it's the

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Speaker 2: kind of the performance where what we're projecting is probably

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Speaker 2: similar to guys like Quentin Johnson Rashelle Bateman last year,

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Speaker 2: that kind of those guys who were around about wide

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Speaker 2: receiver forty who might not sound attractive now, but by

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Speaker 2: the time you get to bye weeks, by the time

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Speaker 2: you get to injuries and you need somebody reliable, I'd

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Speaker 2: rather bet on jal and Coke of in a whole

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Speaker 2: host names down there.

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Speaker 3: I got a perfect comparison. Tell me, what's the difference

367
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Speaker 3: in the setup between him and him and Darnell Mooney.

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00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:45,360
Speaker 3: What's the difference? Come on, he's the clear number two

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Speaker 3: in the offense. Yeah, yeah, it's It's exactly like the

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Speaker 3: Spider Man gift. It's except one of them is healthy

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Speaker 3: and one of them is not right.

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Speaker 1: Now, let's go to the breakout guys who are maybe

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Speaker 1: like behind an alpha or you know, need some sort

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Speaker 1: of situationational change or a difference in circumstance to maybe

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Speaker 1: take that full step forward. But we think that is

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Speaker 1: on the table. And Dee Bro, your first guy here

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00:17:07,920 --> 00:17:10,639
Speaker 1: is in mechag Buka. And I mentioned him for you

378
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Speaker 1: because he is the one that I think him versus

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00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:14,720
Speaker 1: Ricky knew this three You're gonna get interesting. I mean

380
00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:17,600
Speaker 1: they're basically back to back in real time ADP right now.

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00:17:17,760 --> 00:17:20,040
Speaker 1: They are two of you know, most of the fantasy

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Speaker 1: community's favorite you know, potential breakouts here in that range,

383
00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:26,680
Speaker 1: that back end wide receiver three range. So I want

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Speaker 1: to hear your general thoughts on Abuka, of course, but

385
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Speaker 1: I am also curious who would you prefer Peersaal or

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00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:31,679
Speaker 1: a Buka.

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00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:34,520
Speaker 3: I mean, so for me, it's Pearsol, And I understand

388
00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:36,199
Speaker 3: if people want to go, I mean we are we

389
00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:39,560
Speaker 3: are splitting razor thin heres here and like right now

390
00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:41,960
Speaker 3: our rankings, I've got Pearsol or wide receiver twenty six.

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00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:43,760
Speaker 3: I got a Buka. Just moved them up a gigain

392
00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:47,359
Speaker 3: today because real time ADP he's wide receiver thirty three,

393
00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:50,520
Speaker 3: and he is I want to say, if not, I'm

394
00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:54,520
Speaker 3: updating this live. He is the second highest gaining wide

395
00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:58,240
Speaker 3: receiver in ADP seven point five spots over the last

396
00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:01,399
Speaker 3: week in real time ADP. So it's like I'm trying

397
00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:04,360
Speaker 3: to stay above consensus. So people are still getting access

398
00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:06,159
Speaker 3: to him or they're still getting him in a ton

399
00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:09,679
Speaker 3: of drafts, and the fantasy community is like, all right,

400
00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:13,359
Speaker 3: bet Bett, hold my beer, I got this, and I'm like, okay,

401
00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:15,560
Speaker 3: I'm just gonna keep moving him up. But everything has

402
00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:19,520
Speaker 3: been like we're talking about these breakout second wide receivers

403
00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:22,280
Speaker 3: in these offenses. I mean, dude, he is the guy

404
00:18:22,359 --> 00:18:24,199
Speaker 3: that where he is the poster child for this. Like

405
00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:27,560
Speaker 3: everything has come up as aces freg buka. It's like

406
00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:31,000
Speaker 3: Chris god when we got like, okay, health reports aren't great.

407
00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:33,560
Speaker 3: The more we've gone through the off season, health reports

408
00:18:33,560 --> 00:18:36,560
Speaker 3: are pretty damning. They're horrible. I don't know when we

409
00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:39,040
Speaker 3: see a healthy version of Chris Godwin this year if

410
00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:42,280
Speaker 3: we do, and so it's like, okay, check Jalen mc

411
00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:44,200
Speaker 3: millan goes out in the preseason and he gets hurt,

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Speaker 3: and I don't want to see a player get hurt.

413
00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:47,639
Speaker 3: But now it's like when do we see him? I

414
00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:49,720
Speaker 3: mean there's talk about the bye week or even further.

415
00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:52,120
Speaker 3: Like you know, it's hard to gauge. And I mean,

416
00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:54,479
Speaker 3: like I'm sorry, like when I hear neck injuries and

417
00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:57,320
Speaker 3: neck injuries that could sideline you until maybe week nine

418
00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:00,600
Speaker 3: or further, we have no clue, man, Like, we have

419
00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:03,520
Speaker 3: no clue that could be even career threatening. Right now,

420
00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:06,680
Speaker 3: all we're going off is the reports that we have,

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00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:08,840
Speaker 3: which I mean, come on, how much we got to

422
00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:10,480
Speaker 3: take all this injury stuff with a grain of salt

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Speaker 3: from teams just in general too, So Buka, like the

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00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:17,960
Speaker 3: runway has been cleared. Man, it's no godwin from maybe

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00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:20,240
Speaker 3: most of the season, no jailing the Nyland for most

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Speaker 3: of the season, maybe all of it. And then we're

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Speaker 3: talking about a guy with first round pedigree as well

428
00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:28,000
Speaker 3: as the prospect profile to back it up. Like two

429
00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:30,159
Speaker 3: of the last final three seasons in college he was

430
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Speaker 3: top forty yards per route run, top twenty and receiving

431
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Speaker 3: grade and yards out of the catch. And we know

432
00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:37,600
Speaker 3: the role that he's gonna play in this offense. Yeah,

433
00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:41,160
Speaker 3: Like I just keep moving him up, Just keep moving

434
00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:41,840
Speaker 3: them up. Worm.

435
00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:45,000
Speaker 1: I actually think I would prefer Buka to pure slic

436
00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:47,119
Speaker 1: if I could only have a little bit team. But

437
00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:49,199
Speaker 1: it's like ridiculously close.

438
00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:52,600
Speaker 3: It's close. The real answer here is just draft both.

439
00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:55,960
Speaker 1: Yes, there's no reason not. You know, Tom, I'm still

440
00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:59,400
Speaker 1: waiting to hear a good case against Aguko, Like I

441
00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:01,600
Speaker 1: just like there's that well.

442
00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:05,359
Speaker 2: I mean, I think if you wanted to play that case,

443
00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:08,280
Speaker 2: you could say, Okay, well, this team loves Chris Godwin.

444
00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:10,680
Speaker 2: They knew this verity of the injury, that he had

445
00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:13,399
Speaker 2: the fractured fibula as well as the fractured ankle or whatever,

446
00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:15,919
Speaker 2: but they still chose to pay him. I mean, you

447
00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:18,119
Speaker 2: could say they are absolutely going to give him his

448
00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:20,560
Speaker 2: job back when he comes back, but I don't believe

449
00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:23,080
Speaker 2: that's going to happen for all the reasons for Debro's

450
00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:26,159
Speaker 2: saying like that, injury to Godwin is severe and you

451
00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:29,119
Speaker 2: could have all kinds of complications around cartilage and stuff

452
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:31,679
Speaker 2: like that. Like I've been on the wrong side of

453
00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:34,640
Speaker 2: injuries too many times and been too optimistic. I think

454
00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:37,800
Speaker 2: that egg Booker can play inside, outside, but his strongest

455
00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:39,679
Speaker 2: role is going to be in the slot. We know

456
00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:42,160
Speaker 2: Godwin can also play outside, So maybe there's some kind

457
00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:44,720
Speaker 2: of rotational element there. But I just look at egg

458
00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:46,800
Speaker 2: Booker and I wouldn't be surprised if he leads the

459
00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:48,960
Speaker 2: Books in catches this year, and I wouldn't be surprised

460
00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:51,320
Speaker 2: if he leads them in yards as well, because look,

461
00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:53,440
Speaker 2: Mike Evans, people don't want to talk about it, but

462
00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:55,360
Speaker 2: at the end of last season, frankly, it was quite

463
00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:57,040
Speaker 2: embarrassing the way that the Books went out of the

464
00:20:57,040 --> 00:20:59,119
Speaker 2: way to get him too one thousand yards. He feels

465
00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:01,600
Speaker 2: like he's standing use a step, And some of the

466
00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:03,880
Speaker 2: reports around the Books this offseason had been that Mike

467
00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:06,480
Speaker 2: Evans is treating things this year to year. Now, I

468
00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:08,639
Speaker 2: just I'm not saying Mike Evans is going to bust,

469
00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:11,280
Speaker 2: but if I'm putting any faith in anyone in this offense,

470
00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,159
Speaker 2: it's like Buka, and I'm just surprised that we're not

471
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:15,760
Speaker 2: paying higher prices for him already.

472
00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:17,960
Speaker 3: I won't push back on anybody that's ranking him as

473
00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:20,480
Speaker 3: a top twenty four wide receiver. I really won't.

474
00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:23,800
Speaker 1: We talked, I think it was last week, Tom maybe

475
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:26,199
Speaker 1: it was on a recent episode about how this is

476
00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:29,000
Speaker 1: just a really good example of like, don't overreact to

477
00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:32,359
Speaker 1: landing spots, like, yeah, on draft day, it's like, well,

478
00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:35,080
Speaker 1: oh we hate Edgruker now because the Bucks have all

479
00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:38,160
Speaker 1: It's like, opportunity will open up if you're good enough,

480
00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:39,920
Speaker 1: and we all believe that Booka was good enough.

481
00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:42,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just a classic thing. And I think it's

482
00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:45,760
Speaker 2: you know, probably more prevalent in dynasty communities than it

483
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:48,240
Speaker 2: is by the time that we get to redraft, because

484
00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:50,679
Speaker 2: look at this, the situation has changed dramatically in the

485
00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:54,800
Speaker 2: last three months, but ultimately talent tends to win out

486
00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:57,720
Speaker 2: more often than not. And yeah, eg Booka a couple

487
00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:00,320
Speaker 2: of months back, you're getting discounting on him in dynasty circles.

488
00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:02,240
Speaker 2: And if you traded for him cheaply because you thought

489
00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:05,200
Speaker 2: you were you know, you traded him away cheaply because

490
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:06,760
Speaker 2: you thought you were a contender, and just what it's

491
00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:09,120
Speaker 2: in production right now, then you might be kicking yourself.

492
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:12,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I'll say the other side of the coin

493
00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:14,600
Speaker 3: is we have also lived in a world where we

494
00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:18,639
Speaker 3: saw rookie seasons from romadons A and JSN fall flat

495
00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 3: because of the competition, so like it has been an

496
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:24,760
Speaker 3: absolutely pure run out for egg buch as well.

497
00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:28,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, Tom, who is your first guy in this category?

498
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:32,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, obviously most shows I do with Andrew when

499
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 2: we're talking best Ball, and it's hard for me to

500
00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:37,040
Speaker 2: get a word in edgeways about Jalen Waddle. But I

501
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:39,600
Speaker 2: would say I'm just as high on Jalen Waddle as

502
00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:42,880
Speaker 2: Andrew like. And it's so easy for me to make

503
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:45,840
Speaker 2: this argument, like, look, Miami Dolphins were bad last year

504
00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:47,600
Speaker 2: and they're likely going to be bad, and at the

505
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:49,600
Speaker 2: heart of it is how bad their defense could be.

506
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:51,440
Speaker 2: The secondary looks like it's going to be one of

507
00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:53,760
Speaker 2: the worst in the league. They traded away Jayleen Ramsey

508
00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:55,399
Speaker 2: for anybody just tuning in at this point of the

509
00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:58,679
Speaker 2: offseason wondering why he's not involved in that conversation, and

510
00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:01,440
Speaker 2: this can lead to Dolphins haven't a pass more, which

511
00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:04,480
Speaker 2: leads to them putting up more points. More pass attempts

512
00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:06,760
Speaker 2: is good last year to have ranked third in pass

513
00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:09,360
Speaker 2: attempts per game at thirty six point three. He led

514
00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:11,760
Speaker 2: the league with twenty six completions per game. Now, some

515
00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:13,600
Speaker 2: of this is obviously checkdowns. It as two of it

516
00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:16,240
Speaker 2: were talking about, and John Y Smith and Devon A.

517
00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:19,560
Speaker 2: Chan were huge like volume hogs because of that, but

518
00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:23,320
Speaker 2: when Jalen Waddle wasn't playing with Tour, the difference was

519
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:26,160
Speaker 2: so stark. Like in Week three, Tim Boyle and Skylet

520
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:31,520
Speaker 2: Thompson combined for twenty completions, Week five, Tyler Huntley eighteen completions.

521
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:35,600
Speaker 2: Week seven, Huntley and Boyle combining for fifteen completions. So

522
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 2: it's like the drop off in completed passes per game

523
00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:42,560
Speaker 2: was massive. Wadolov ridged four point seventy nine more PPR

524
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:46,520
Speaker 2: points per game with Tour than without, and Waddle led

525
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:48,920
Speaker 2: the team in yards per target, yards per reception. He

526
00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:51,760
Speaker 2: just needed a ball more often. He needed Tour out there.

527
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:55,800
Speaker 2: And lastly, the vibes around Tyreek Hill they just not good.

528
00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:58,000
Speaker 2: Whereas it sounds like Waddle and Tour have spent a

529
00:23:58,000 --> 00:23:59,440
Speaker 2: lot of time together this offseason.

530
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 1: Debra, where you at in a waddle.

531
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:04,119
Speaker 3: I have Waddle ranked ahead of Tyreek Hill. I have

532
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:06,679
Speaker 3: Wattle at wide receiver twenty months. I am out on

533
00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:09,960
Speaker 3: Tyreek Hill. You cannot force me to draft him. I'm

534
00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:12,480
Speaker 3: not doing it. I think there is a non zero

535
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:15,439
Speaker 3: chance Tyreek Hill goes full ab and by week seven

536
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 3: when they're one and six or two and four, something

537
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:20,879
Speaker 3: like that, he's ripping off the jersey and saying, forget

538
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:23,679
Speaker 3: you guys, I'm out of here. So Jayalen Waddle like,

539
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:26,520
Speaker 3: I'm totally in on him. The other part about this

540
00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:30,480
Speaker 3: is the way that I looked at this offense and

541
00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:33,360
Speaker 3: as soon as Johnny was gone, I feel like everybody

542
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 3: went to Devon a Chan and they said, Oh, he's

543
00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:37,320
Speaker 3: gonna catch more passes. Alway's gonna catch more passes. It's like,

544
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:39,720
Speaker 3: did he almost catch the ninety He almost caught ninety

545
00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 3: passes last year? What do you think he's gonna catch

546
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:44,720
Speaker 3: one hundred and fifteen? Like come on? So Like for me,

547
00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:47,399
Speaker 3: I think Devan a Chan's gonna catch a ton of passes.

548
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 3: That's not crazy to say. But in the John Newsmith role,

549
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 3: in the underneath low a dot role, I think that

550
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:55,760
Speaker 3: could go to a Jalen Waddle. I think we could

551
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:58,679
Speaker 3: see him revisit the role that he had in his

552
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:01,480
Speaker 3: rookie season and he catches a hundred passes and passes

553
00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:03,960
Speaker 3: this year and he is the low a dot guy

554
00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:06,760
Speaker 3: that's running more out of the slot where it's like

555
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:09,399
Speaker 3: everybody's like, oh, well, is it Tyreek, is it Waddle?

556
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 3: Is it a you know? Darren Waller, like, I think

557
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 3: the answer in all aspects is Jaylen Wattle.

558
00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:19,960
Speaker 1: Let's go to another breakout guy here, Debro who you got.

559
00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:23,040
Speaker 3: And to go further down the list here. And I

560
00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:26,360
Speaker 3: know that people are gonna say they do some squinting

561
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:30,280
Speaker 3: with this, but in a wide open passing attack that

562
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:33,679
Speaker 3: where you don't have this uber alpha that's commanding a

563
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:36,359
Speaker 3: twenty eight percent target share, it's more of a committee.

564
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:39,480
Speaker 3: I think there's a really big lane an opportunity for

565
00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:42,480
Speaker 3: Joshua Palmer this year for all of the parts of

566
00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 3: pieces that the Buffalo Bill's already had in this room,

567
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:46,840
Speaker 3: and they go out and they add quickly in the

568
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:51,680
Speaker 3: offseason somebody like Joshua Palmer. His role in this offense

569
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:55,120
Speaker 3: is so easy to see for a guy that's honestly,

570
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:58,320
Speaker 3: really really underrated as a route runner and a separator

571
00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:01,440
Speaker 3: last year amongst one hundred and twelve qualifying wide receivers

572
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:05,119
Speaker 3: sixteenth in separation twelfth and route win rate. And I

573
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:07,040
Speaker 3: really believe in this type of data that we get

574
00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:09,840
Speaker 3: from Fantasy Points data, like looking at those numbers, this

575
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 3: would have put you on somebody like a Rashad Bateman

576
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:14,920
Speaker 3: last year and other players in that ilk where they

577
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:17,000
Speaker 3: were breakout players that we hadn't seen a lot of

578
00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:19,879
Speaker 3: these things before. And we've seen flashes from Joshua Palmer

579
00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:22,000
Speaker 3: when Keenan Allen was out of the lineup, Mike at

580
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 3: Williams was out of the lineup for the Chargers. Now,

581
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:26,919
Speaker 3: did it come to fruition last year. No, doesn't mean

582
00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:30,080
Speaker 3: that it can't this year and a new opportunity. Absolutely,

583
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:33,080
Speaker 3: like I think that it can happen because if you

584
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:35,399
Speaker 3: look at the role that they drafted Keon Coleman to

585
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:37,480
Speaker 3: play last year, it was against man coverage. He was

586
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:39,560
Speaker 3: supposed to be the man coverage beater guy. He had

587
00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 3: a twenty seven percent target per rout run rate versus man,

588
00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:45,360
Speaker 3: fourteen percent versus his own. He could not separate versus

589
00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:47,680
Speaker 3: his own. He was middle of the road versus man.

590
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:52,080
Speaker 3: Whereas Joshua Palmer against man coverage last year was fifth

591
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:55,399
Speaker 3: in separation and route win rate against man coverage. And

592
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:57,240
Speaker 3: this all goes back to this. I know I'm getting

593
00:26:57,240 --> 00:27:00,240
Speaker 3: deep in the weeds people, but the Buffalo Bills know

594
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:03,639
Speaker 3: that they have to solve this problem. Over the last

595
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:08,399
Speaker 3: three seasons, they have faced top four man coverage rates

596
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 3: every single year fourth most, third most, and last year

597
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:14,480
Speaker 3: the most man coverage in the NFL. So he's talking

598
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 3: about trust, rapport, a guy that could separate, and a

599
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:21,280
Speaker 3: passing attack wer. Who is the alpha? Who is the

600
00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:24,720
Speaker 3: guy you worried about Isa Khalil Shakir. Dude, he wasn't

601
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:27,000
Speaker 3: even commanding like a twenty five percent target sharer even

602
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:29,520
Speaker 3: after his role grew in the second half of last season.

603
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 3: So you're gonna give me a perimeter guy that can

604
00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:35,880
Speaker 3: separate with tied the freaking Josh Allen all Day, let's go.

605
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 1: This is, you know, speaking of Andrew Erickson, one of

606
00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:41,840
Speaker 1: his favorites, Like just talking about you know, these fifty

607
00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:43,439
Speaker 1: year breakout guys. He's been all over.

608
00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:46,320
Speaker 3: I'm just Ericson's burner by the way.

609
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:49,679
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. Yeah, you know, Palmer's such an interesting one, Tom,

610
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:50,560
Speaker 1: What do you think about him?

611
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 3: Yeah?

612
00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:55,359
Speaker 2: I really like the stats for debros quoted. I must

613
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:59,120
Speaker 2: have referenced them that Debros quoted them and his tweets

614
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:01,600
Speaker 2: with them in in a whole bunch of articles this

615
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 2: offseason talking about late round wide receivers who could be

616
00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 2: worth it. Because with Josh Palmer, it's always like we've

617
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 2: had little glimpses, but yes, he's played behind guys like

618
00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:13,880
Speaker 2: Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. There isn't anyone in Buffalo

619
00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:15,800
Speaker 2: who I think are as good as those guys when

620
00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:17,720
Speaker 2: they were good at least, and when they were healthy

621
00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 2: and when they were on the field. The way the

622
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 2: Bills play, it's really unpredictable and really difficult, and quite honestly,

623
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:27,480
Speaker 2: it's not something I've been zeroing in a lot. I

624
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 2: don't mind Josh Palmer in best Ball. I haven't really

625
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:32,479
Speaker 2: taken him in red drafts so far, but it's not

626
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:34,720
Speaker 2: hard for me to imagine that when all is said

627
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:36,880
Speaker 2: and done, he is the most valuable part of this

628
00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:40,400
Speaker 2: passing attack, and particularly at the cost you're get in

629
00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:43,240
Speaker 2: like he's earned solid red zone targets across his career,

630
00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 2: Like he was obviously playing behind Keenan Allen, who was

631
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:48,280
Speaker 2: very good in the red zone, but he always did

632
00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 2: fine in those numbers. And then when you look at

633
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:52,920
Speaker 2: the Bills, I don't think there's anybody in particular who's

634
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 2: particularly good in the red zone. Khalil Shaki definitely not

635
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 2: necessarily got the build for it. Dalal Kinkaid has been

636
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:01,560
Speaker 2: taking off the field frequently in the red zone. So

637
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:04,800
Speaker 2: if Josh Palmer can become the red zone weapon for

638
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:07,000
Speaker 2: Josh Allen, then I think that would be huge for

639
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:08,000
Speaker 2: his fantasy value.

640
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:10,120
Speaker 1: Let's go to your next breakout guy, Tom, and this

641
00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:13,080
Speaker 1: is somebody that Debro alluded to earlier when talking about

642
00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:13,800
Speaker 1: Jalen Coger.

643
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, it start Al Mooney, last year's wide receiver twenty seven,

644
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 2: and I think the prolonged injury this summer has obviously

645
00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 2: given us a bit of a dip. And generally I

646
00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:23,320
Speaker 2: don't like to beat on those kind of guys, but

647
00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:25,160
Speaker 2: now it's took a point where you're getting him at

648
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 2: such a discount. But I'm okay saying I can wait

649
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:30,960
Speaker 2: a while. I can wait. He can be my wide receiver, form,

650
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 2: my wide receiver five, depending on how I'm building my team.

651
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:37,600
Speaker 2: And last year he averaged twelve point one PPR points

652
00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:39,800
Speaker 2: per game, had five games where he scored seventeen or

653
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:42,360
Speaker 2: more PPR points, as well as that massive thirty point

654
00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:46,680
Speaker 2: game in week five. Wide receiver three finished that week. Now,

655
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:49,080
Speaker 2: some people, when you talk about Donald Mooney, they go, Okay,

656
00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:51,320
Speaker 2: well did he really do anything with Michael Pennix, Because

657
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 2: everybody just remembers Drake London getting absolutely peppered with targets, which,

658
00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 2: by the way, is something we love to see. But

659
00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:00,960
Speaker 2: when they played together in week sixteen and seventeen, combined

660
00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:03,880
Speaker 2: for seven of his eleven targets for one hundred and

661
00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:06,640
Speaker 2: nineteen yards, which is completely fine. There was no reason

662
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:09,320
Speaker 2: to worry about that production. We know the Falcons are

663
00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:11,320
Speaker 2: going to play free wide receiver sets at one of

664
00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 2: the highest rates across the league, and last year the

665
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 2: only wide receiver with highest snap shares than Donal Mooney

666
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 2: was Garrett Wilson, DJ Moore and Justin Jefferson. He's going

667
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:22,400
Speaker 2: to be out there, He's going to get lots of targets,

668
00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:24,240
Speaker 2: and I think the Falcons are going to pass plenty,

669
00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:26,920
Speaker 2: and I'm more than happy to accept that it might

670
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 2: be a slow start for him.

671
00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:31,320
Speaker 1: Debro You obviously like kind of touched on Mooney a

672
00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 1: little when talking about Coker, But are you interested in

673
00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 1: Mooney at cost?

674
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm interested in Mooney at cost. I mean, my

675
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:39,400
Speaker 3: biggest thing about him right now is just the health.

676
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:42,240
Speaker 3: I mean, so I'll take shots on him depending on

677
00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:44,840
Speaker 3: the composition of my rosters and stuff like that, because

678
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:47,680
Speaker 3: everything that Tom laid out is perfectly right, man Like,

679
00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:50,880
Speaker 3: it's a consolidated passing attack. It's Drake Lennon and Darnel

680
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 3: Mooney at the top. No, there's done any Kyle Pitts.

681
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 3: I don't even know if he's gonna be a full

682
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:56,960
Speaker 3: time player in that offense. So are you really worried

683
00:30:56,960 --> 00:31:02,480
Speaker 3: about Rey Ray McCloud stealing targets away? No? So the

684
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:05,280
Speaker 3: other thing about it with Darnah Mooney is we did

685
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:08,520
Speaker 3: see the field stretching aspect with Kirk Cousins, but do

686
00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 3: it at a wet noodle for an arm like with

687
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 3: Michael Panix. We're gonna see that even more this year

688
00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:15,360
Speaker 3: because he could chuck it down the freakin' field. And

689
00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:18,040
Speaker 3: if Darnah Mooney could separate down the field, injury or not,

690
00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 3: he's gonna have big spike weeks. Man.

691
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 1: Remember, winning your fantasy league starts before draft day, and

692
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:26,280
Speaker 1: the Fantasy Pros Draft Kit gives you the knowledge to

693
00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:28,520
Speaker 1: do it right. There are wide receiver gems to be

694
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:31,480
Speaker 1: found all throughout the middle and late rounds. Our Draftkit

695
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Speaker 1: is your one stop shop for expert rankings, sleepers, breakouts,

696
00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:37,960
Speaker 1: wide receivers. Draft strategies and more. Don't walk into draft

697
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Speaker 1: day guessing. Read up, lock in win your league. Go

698
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Speaker 1: to fantasypros dot com Slash Kit. Get access to all

699
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Speaker 1: the premium content in our kit by claiming your three

700
00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:49,440
Speaker 1: day free trial of Fantasy Pros Premium at fantasypros dot

701
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:52,560
Speaker 1: Com slash Premium. All right, guys, we've got some league

702
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:56,960
Speaker 1: winners hiding in plane site. Dro who is your first

703
00:31:57,040 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 1: name in our final category?

704
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 3: I know you're gonna beary, and I know all the

705
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:02,800
Speaker 3: smoke you got coming from me because I'm bringing.

706
00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 1: Up Oh Tom and I are ready.

707
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:11,920
Speaker 3: I know, dude. I just want, please, please, Baltimore. All

708
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:17,120
Speaker 3: I'm asking feature your best players. And I know Lamar

709
00:32:17,280 --> 00:32:20,560
Speaker 3: is good. I know Derrick Henry and Mark Andrews are good. Dude,

710
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:23,720
Speaker 3: Say Flowers if he was on any other freaking team

711
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:28,560
Speaker 3: would be ranked higher, have a better role than he

712
00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 3: has in this offense. Just feature the man. That's all

713
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:38,560
Speaker 3: I'm asking because on a per route basis, he is amazing.

714
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:43,720
Speaker 3: Last year's Syflowers amongst eighty five qualifying wide receivers fourteenth

715
00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:46,960
Speaker 3: and target chair seventeenth and yards per route run eighteenth.

716
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:49,440
Speaker 3: The first read cheer twentieth and first downs per route

717
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:52,400
Speaker 3: run just check check, check check, And even when you

718
00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:54,920
Speaker 3: pull open the hood, it's even better on a per

719
00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 3: route basis. When you look at separation scores, this guy

720
00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:02,640
Speaker 3: was fifth in separation, ninth in route win rate. Overall,

721
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:05,040
Speaker 3: you go to man coverage, and this is the secret

722
00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:07,719
Speaker 3: sauce where I like you look for the extra ceiling

723
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:11,600
Speaker 3: guys that can win versus man coverage. They're usually the

724
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:16,560
Speaker 3: top of the pile. The elite guys Zay Flowers last

725
00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:21,800
Speaker 3: year versus man coverage first in separation, fourth and route

726
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:25,920
Speaker 3: win rate. Give him freaking red zone targets, Baltimore. If

727
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:28,120
Speaker 3: you give him to him, he's gonna convert. If you

728
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 3: give him volume, he's gonna make things happen. I can't

729
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:33,400
Speaker 3: help the fact that he's had nine receiving touchdowns over

730
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:36,040
Speaker 3: the last two years. He's had twenty two total red

731
00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:38,360
Speaker 3: zone targets of the last two years, twenty eighth and

732
00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 3: fifty ninth in that category amongst wide receivers. If you

733
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:46,720
Speaker 3: feature this guy, good things will happen. I just don't

734
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:50,120
Speaker 3: know if Baltimore will do it, but I'm asking, I'm pleading,

735
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 3: please do it.

736
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:52,920
Speaker 1: Tom, Do you want to take this or do you

737
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 1: want me too?

738
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm happy to say this because I don't think

739
00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 2: I'm as low on zaiy as you are. When I'm

740
00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 2: still expecting that there is another level, and it's to

741
00:34:01,520 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 2: do with the stuff for Debro mentioned because like last

742
00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:07,760
Speaker 2: year alone, seven end zone targets but only two touchdowns

743
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:11,400
Speaker 2: from those targets, now only four touchdowns in total, that

744
00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:14,800
Speaker 2: just like I can't believe isn't a case for positive

745
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:18,760
Speaker 2: regression there. People aren't high, and Andrews likely's injured, nobody's

746
00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:20,960
Speaker 2: talking batement up and it just all leads back to

747
00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:23,880
Speaker 2: Za Flowers. For me, I think like it's quite obvious

748
00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:26,319
Speaker 2: when you've if you've watched Lamar for a long time,

749
00:34:26,480 --> 00:34:29,279
Speaker 2: particularly in detail, when it gets to the red zone,

750
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:31,040
Speaker 2: a lot of it comes back to trust him. For

751
00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:34,000
Speaker 2: so long, Mark Andrews has been that guy. But last

752
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:37,840
Speaker 2: year Mark Andrews had eleven end zone touchdowns on fifteen

753
00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:40,920
Speaker 2: end zone targets. He ran so incredibly pure. I'm not

754
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:43,359
Speaker 2: sure that he can run that pure again. Last year

755
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 2: we saw like guys like Charlie Kohler and Isaiah Likely

756
00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:48,959
Speaker 2: popping up for vs en zone touchdowns and sooner or later.

757
00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:50,759
Speaker 2: I think that it's very hard for a guy like

758
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:54,760
Speaker 2: Za Flowers to not experience some positive touchdown regression because

759
00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:57,400
Speaker 2: of all the great starts that Debro mentioned about separation.

760
00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:00,360
Speaker 2: The hardest part for me about draftings a fl Flowers.

761
00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:03,800
Speaker 2: But he comes in that range with Jayleen Woddel, Calvin Ridley,

762
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:07,360
Speaker 2: Jameson Williams, Teta Rowa. But that's why I want to

763
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:09,359
Speaker 2: double dip in this range. I want to pull one

764
00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:11,840
Speaker 2: of those guys up around ahead of ADP so I

765
00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:15,040
Speaker 2: can come back and get another guy. Because while Zay

766
00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 2: Flowers will be a little boom or bust sometimes because

767
00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 2: there will be those weeks where the Ravens spread it

768
00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:22,799
Speaker 2: around are incredibly efficient, or they'll be those weeks where

769
00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:26,000
Speaker 2: Derrick Henry gets two Russian touchdowns just as Hill gets one.

770
00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:28,400
Speaker 2: I'm still willing to take the upside of.

771
00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:31,759
Speaker 1: Him Jay Flowers. Okay, So I am out on Zay

772
00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:34,440
Speaker 1: Flowers this year. Part of it is the cost. First

773
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:35,840
Speaker 1: of all, he's a good player in real life, like

774
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:37,520
Speaker 1: love having him on the Ravens. I've said this a bunch,

775
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:40,359
Speaker 1: like very good player. I'm not at all pushing back

776
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 1: on anything deeper said about Jay Flowers the player, I

777
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:47,399
Speaker 1: do not see a path to him ever getting significant

778
00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:51,080
Speaker 1: red zone usage. As the offense is currently constructed, the

779
00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:54,800
Speaker 1: priorities for the Ravens when they are close to scoring

780
00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:59,360
Speaker 1: are run the ball with Derrick Henry, throw to Mark Andrews,

781
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:02,400
Speaker 1: throw Isaiah likely. I think this year it might be

782
00:36:02,400 --> 00:36:05,800
Speaker 1: thrown at DeAndre Hopkins. It's gonna be run with Lamar

783
00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:09,560
Speaker 1: like further down that list, but like they just don't say, hey,

784
00:36:09,680 --> 00:36:11,680
Speaker 1: say you're a guy that we're gonna design plays for

785
00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:14,800
Speaker 1: in the red zone. I do not expect that to change.

786
00:36:15,160 --> 00:36:17,040
Speaker 1: And I think the fact that the offense is as

787
00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:19,440
Speaker 1: run heavy as it is is going to limit his

788
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:22,160
Speaker 1: targets enough that it won't make up for the difference

789
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:24,920
Speaker 1: in what I expect to be a lack of red

790
00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:29,520
Speaker 1: zone you know usage. And I don't understand just because

791
00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:31,839
Speaker 1: we want that to change, I don't understand how it

792
00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:35,160
Speaker 1: actually is going to so to me that significantly caps

793
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:37,480
Speaker 1: the ceiling. I do think Day's a pretty good floor

794
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 1: because I think he's a really good player, But I

795
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:43,239
Speaker 1: don't think there's real like ceiling breakout, like gonna be

796
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:45,600
Speaker 1: a guy that really makes a difference for you in

797
00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:48,279
Speaker 1: your league type of a player here, and it's you know,

798
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:50,799
Speaker 1: I look at like again, like he had he had

799
00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:53,640
Speaker 1: one top ten finish in half PPR scoring in any

800
00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:55,920
Speaker 1: week all of last season. Like, it's not even like

801
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:58,279
Speaker 1: you're getting like, well, so the boom weeks are at

802
00:36:58,360 --> 00:36:59,600
Speaker 1: least gonna win you. The week he had that one

803
00:36:59,600 --> 00:37:01,880
Speaker 1: week a gain Denver where he had two long touchdowns,

804
00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:03,719
Speaker 1: he was the number two wide receiver that year. His

805
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:06,600
Speaker 1: next best finished last season and year two was wide

806
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:09,960
Speaker 1: receiver eleven. That's not a league winning week. So I like,

807
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:13,160
Speaker 1: and to cap my point here, like what you said,

808
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:16,520
Speaker 1: Tom about where he is going, the real time ADP

809
00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:19,480
Speaker 1: is inside the top sixty five picks. I just like

810
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:23,000
Speaker 1: a lot of other names there instead. And I'm going

811
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:26,600
Speaker 1: to have very little and maybe even zero Jay Flowers

812
00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:29,080
Speaker 1: this year because I don't think the cost aligns with

813
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:29,720
Speaker 1: the ceiling.

814
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:32,640
Speaker 3: To your point, where go ahead, Tom, go ahead.

815
00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:34,239
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna say I think that this has been

816
00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:36,600
Speaker 2: one of the most interesting debates for me this offseason

817
00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:39,880
Speaker 2: because there's so many really smart people on both sides

818
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:43,160
Speaker 2: of it, and I think that it's I've gone back

819
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:45,799
Speaker 2: and forth because you can build a case for it

820
00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:48,040
Speaker 2: and both of you guys have built really good cases.

821
00:37:48,360 --> 00:37:50,680
Speaker 2: And that's what kind of leads me back to taking

822
00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:52,400
Speaker 2: him a little bit more that it just feels like

823
00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:54,799
Speaker 2: you know of his opportunity in ambiguity. If we can

824
00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:56,799
Speaker 2: build a downside case for him, but we can also

825
00:37:56,800 --> 00:37:59,680
Speaker 2: build this massive upside case for him, then does he

826
00:37:59,719 --> 00:38:02,400
Speaker 2: have po cential vide ends up turning into an undervalued

827
00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:04,560
Speaker 2: kind of league winner. And that's why I'll still draft

828
00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:06,560
Speaker 2: him and I won't go crazy. I won't have him

829
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:08,839
Speaker 2: in every league, but this definitely leaks where I will

830
00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:09,400
Speaker 2: want him.

831
00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:12,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I want to be very clear, if people

832
00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:15,239
Speaker 3: have been consuming my content and Fantasy pros, will you

833
00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:18,239
Speaker 3: find say Flowers and my players to avoid article Yes,

834
00:38:18,280 --> 00:38:21,440
Speaker 3: because he was priced as a wide receiver two. I

835
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:23,640
Speaker 3: don't want to pray a wide receiver two price tag

836
00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:26,240
Speaker 3: for him if I get him as a wide receiver three.

837
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:28,600
Speaker 3: And really this all comes down to, like we're talking

838
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:32,040
Speaker 3: about wide receivers that have a path, or at least

839
00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:35,080
Speaker 3: a conceivable path. And when I go down with Flowers

840
00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 3: is dude, sometimes we got to bet on the talent

841
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:40,480
Speaker 3: of these guys, and the talent can dictate a lot

842
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:43,759
Speaker 3: of different things. Because as the season goes along, injuries

843
00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:47,080
Speaker 3: do happen. DeAndre Hopkins being another year older, what does

844
00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:49,520
Speaker 3: he have left in the tank. Also, it's not like

845
00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:52,000
Speaker 3: he's been a picture of health. Mark Andrews over the

846
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:54,360
Speaker 3: last two years has not been a picture of health.

847
00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:57,960
Speaker 3: If one of those like if one of those obstacles

848
00:38:57,960 --> 00:38:59,880
Speaker 3: gets cleared, or heck, both of them get wiped out

849
00:38:59,880 --> 00:39:02,440
Speaker 3: the board, Isaiah likely is not fully healthy. I don't

850
00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:04,279
Speaker 3: even know. If we see a version of that end

851
00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:07,719
Speaker 3: this season, then it's like, well, it's wheels up, it's

852
00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:10,759
Speaker 3: Zay and it's Bateman, and he's gonna get fed. And

853
00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:13,520
Speaker 3: I'm not forecasting injuries and saying I want those things

854
00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:16,919
Speaker 3: to happen. But this all comes back to is there

855
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:19,680
Speaker 3: a guy in that range where I could say the

856
00:39:19,760 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 3: talent is if the stars aligned and things happen in

857
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:28,040
Speaker 3: that offense, does he have the talent to do it?

858
00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:32,080
Speaker 3: He absolutely has the talent to do it.

859
00:39:32,560 --> 00:39:34,840
Speaker 1: He's got talent. Love the player. Now you want to

860
00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:36,800
Speaker 1: hear me say a bad word about Zay Flowers a player,

861
00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 1: just Zay Flowers the fantasy investment?

862
00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:40,759
Speaker 3: No, I get it. And that's why I would be

863
00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:43,160
Speaker 3: crystal clear about this take where I'm at on him,

864
00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:45,480
Speaker 3: the fact that where he's at in my other content,

865
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:48,200
Speaker 3: I'm going to be very clear about how I'm framing

866
00:39:48,239 --> 00:39:50,759
Speaker 3: this and the bet that if people are drafting him,

867
00:39:51,120 --> 00:39:52,799
Speaker 3: and the path it would take to do this.

868
00:39:54,239 --> 00:39:56,480
Speaker 1: Tom, let's go to your league winner hiding him play

869
00:39:56,480 --> 00:39:56,839
Speaker 1: in sight.

870
00:39:57,160 --> 00:39:59,240
Speaker 3: This is beautiful. I'm just gonna sit back and listen.

871
00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:02,919
Speaker 2: Go ahead, No, no, it's George Pickens. And like, look,

872
00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:05,439
Speaker 2: I haven't been in on George Pickens over the last

873
00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:08,640
Speaker 2: couple of years. Like look, disclaim it. Obviously, I'm a

874
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:11,239
Speaker 2: Ravens fan, so there was plenty of reasons to want

875
00:40:11,239 --> 00:40:14,920
Speaker 2: George Pickens to fail. But Pickens has had nine games

876
00:40:14,920 --> 00:40:17,279
Speaker 2: over sixteen PPR points the last two years, which has

877
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:20,359
Speaker 2: been great. He's also sixteen as wide receiver forty three

878
00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:24,239
Speaker 2: or worse. And now the reason why I'm so high

879
00:40:24,280 --> 00:40:27,279
Speaker 2: on him is because now he's gone to Dallas, which

880
00:40:27,360 --> 00:40:30,239
Speaker 2: isn't going to be this miserable passing offense which he's

881
00:40:30,280 --> 00:40:32,560
Speaker 2: been in. Dallas were top three and passes per game

882
00:40:32,640 --> 00:40:35,640
Speaker 2: last year, Pittsburgh were fourth bottom twenty twenty three. When

883
00:40:35,719 --> 00:40:39,320
Speaker 2: Dak was healthy, Dallas led the league. Pittsburgh ranked twenty seventh.

884
00:40:39,640 --> 00:40:42,239
Speaker 2: Last time that Dak was fully healthy, in twenty twenty three,

885
00:40:42,840 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 2: he played a full season there, they led the league

886
00:40:45,560 --> 00:40:48,000
Speaker 2: in points per game. Pittsburgh were twenty eighth. And that's

887
00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:50,759
Speaker 2: the Steelers' way isn't about scoring lots of points. They

888
00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:54,360
Speaker 2: don't want that. But the Cowboys it's more ingrained in

889
00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:56,879
Speaker 2: their bones. They want to entertained. They want it even

890
00:40:56,920 --> 00:40:59,680
Speaker 2: when they're bad. There's something entertaining about the way that

891
00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:02,600
Speaker 2: they can play. Among thirty one wide receivers were one

892
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:05,320
Speaker 2: hundred plus targets last year. He ranked sixth in yards

893
00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:07,919
Speaker 2: after contact per reception. We know he is a dog.

894
00:41:07,960 --> 00:41:09,840
Speaker 2: We know that, like when he's got the ball in

895
00:41:09,880 --> 00:41:12,120
Speaker 2: his hands, he's going to fight for every single yard.

896
00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:15,799
Speaker 2: He was third in yards per reception, which is impressive.

897
00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:18,400
Speaker 2: We know that he's going to be used downfield. We

898
00:41:18,560 --> 00:41:21,920
Speaker 2: know how valuable those touches can be. But I also

899
00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:24,239
Speaker 2: think that Dallas are going to use him more creatively,

900
00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:27,760
Speaker 2: because I don't think that's something which Arthur Smith designs

901
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:30,080
Speaker 2: a good running game, and he designs some interesting stuff,

902
00:41:30,080 --> 00:41:31,879
Speaker 2: but I don't think he designs a good passing game.

903
00:41:31,920 --> 00:41:33,880
Speaker 2: I don't think that Russell Wilson or just In Fields.

904
00:41:33,920 --> 00:41:36,759
Speaker 2: We're getting the best out of him. And people have

905
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:38,920
Speaker 2: spent a lot of time talking about the benefit to

906
00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:41,799
Speaker 2: CED Lamb that George Pickens is going to bring. He's

907
00:41:41,800 --> 00:41:44,759
Speaker 2: going to clear things out across the close of a

908
00:41:44,800 --> 00:41:47,520
Speaker 2: line of scrimmage to make it easier on him. But

909
00:41:47,640 --> 00:41:50,840
Speaker 2: the benefit of CD Lamb to George Pickens is massive

910
00:41:50,880 --> 00:41:52,560
Speaker 2: as well. And I think it's just going to be

911
00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:56,080
Speaker 2: a very very entertaining season for George Pickens. And I

912
00:41:56,120 --> 00:41:58,239
Speaker 2: think we'll be sitting back in a few months time

913
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:00,040
Speaker 2: wondering why George Pickens wasn't going.

914
00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:03,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, de Bro, you obviously agree with this one.

915
00:42:03,800 --> 00:42:06,560
Speaker 3: I have George Pickens ranked as a top fifteen wide receiver.

916
00:42:06,760 --> 00:42:09,600
Speaker 3: I think that he's I think he is the NFC

917
00:42:09,680 --> 00:42:11,960
Speaker 3: version of T Higgins. I think that you look at

918
00:42:11,960 --> 00:42:15,480
Speaker 3: this offense, Dak Prescott, Ceedee Lamb, and George Pickens are

919
00:42:15,520 --> 00:42:18,120
Speaker 3: going to be the Cincinnati Bengals of the NFC. I

920
00:42:18,200 --> 00:42:21,759
Speaker 3: think Pickens is going to be awesome this year. And

921
00:42:21,840 --> 00:42:24,440
Speaker 3: for all the other parts and pieces that Tom laid out,

922
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:28,760
Speaker 3: which was a wonderful argument for Pickens before the hamstring

923
00:42:28,760 --> 00:42:31,000
Speaker 3: injury last year, he was top twenty and almost every

924
00:42:31,080 --> 00:42:33,239
Speaker 3: metric that you could pull up. You want to talk

925
00:42:33,239 --> 00:42:35,160
Speaker 3: about volume, He's gonna get it. You want to talk

926
00:42:35,160 --> 00:42:37,800
Speaker 3: about talent, He's got it. You want to talk about Also,

927
00:42:38,600 --> 00:42:41,319
Speaker 3: he's playing in a contract here, baby, so if nothing else,

928
00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:42,360
Speaker 3: money talks.

929
00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 1: I yeah, I mean this is like I'm not quite

930
00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:49,720
Speaker 1: Arran terms like talking about like a top fifteen receiver

931
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:52,080
Speaker 1: the way I'm gonna rank him. But yes, like the

932
00:42:52,600 --> 00:42:54,719
Speaker 1: case for me, Like the interesting with the Pickens is that,

933
00:42:54,800 --> 00:42:57,279
Speaker 1: like you know, the reputation I think is as a

934
00:42:57,320 --> 00:42:59,920
Speaker 1: boombust receiver similar to day Flowers, he doesn't actually have

935
00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:02,440
Speaker 1: that many boom weeks really on his resume. I think

936
00:43:02,480 --> 00:43:04,680
Speaker 1: in his entire career he's had like three games with

937
00:43:04,760 --> 00:43:07,640
Speaker 1: over twenty Fantasy points and half PPR scoring in the

938
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:09,480
Speaker 1: game or something like that. I forget the exact stas

939
00:43:09,480 --> 00:43:11,840
Speaker 1: something along those lines, but it feels like with the

940
00:43:11,880 --> 00:43:14,759
Speaker 1: situation change and everything, Like, yeah, I'm very in on

941
00:43:14,800 --> 00:43:17,160
Speaker 1: the Cowboys offense in general this year in terms of

942
00:43:17,200 --> 00:43:20,560
Speaker 1: fantasy production. We were talking on an earlier show debro

943
00:43:20,640 --> 00:43:22,359
Speaker 1: that I think will actually come out later than this one.

944
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:25,000
Speaker 1: But how like the way I put it is, I

945
00:43:25,040 --> 00:43:27,719
Speaker 1: think the Cowboys are the poor man's Bengals, and the

946
00:43:27,719 --> 00:43:31,319
Speaker 1: Panthers are the poor man's Cowboys. But they all kind

947
00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:33,680
Speaker 1: of fit that same arch type right of these like

948
00:43:33,719 --> 00:43:36,560
Speaker 1: fantasy circus teams we're looking at, and I think that

949
00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:38,600
Speaker 1: the Cowboys are just a great investment really all over

950
00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:40,680
Speaker 1: the place for that reason. So we can go on

951
00:43:40,800 --> 00:43:41,800
Speaker 1: to the next one. Oh, go ahead.

952
00:43:41,840 --> 00:43:43,960
Speaker 3: Well, I wanted to do this really fast because there's

953
00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:46,640
Speaker 3: three wide receivers that I am adamantly opposed to that

954
00:43:46,680 --> 00:43:48,400
Speaker 3: are right above George Pickens. But I want to get

955
00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:50,279
Speaker 3: y'all's thoughts on this we're going to do. Would you

956
00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:53,600
Speaker 3: rather really really quickly Marvin Rrison Junior or George Pickens?

957
00:43:54,800 --> 00:43:56,000
Speaker 2: It's Joge Pickens?

958
00:43:56,320 --> 00:43:58,280
Speaker 3: Okay, Tyreek Hill or George Pickens.

959
00:43:58,520 --> 00:43:59,560
Speaker 2: Oh it's Jeorge Pickens.

960
00:44:00,480 --> 00:44:04,160
Speaker 3: All right? How about Garrett Wilson or George Pickens.

961
00:44:04,640 --> 00:44:07,319
Speaker 2: I think I'll probably still take Garret Wilson, but I wouldn't.

962
00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:09,880
Speaker 3: Like it DK Metcalf for George Pickens, the man that

963
00:44:09,960 --> 00:44:15,120
Speaker 3: got out of an Orthur Smiths the man. Those are

964
00:44:15,160 --> 00:44:17,960
Speaker 3: three wide receivers that are all ranked in that bucket

965
00:44:18,000 --> 00:44:21,960
Speaker 3: of fifteen through twenty, above George Pickens and It's like what.

966
00:44:22,320 --> 00:44:24,800
Speaker 1: Mar Marvin Harrison Junior. I'm just kind of like, personally,

967
00:44:24,800 --> 00:44:27,960
Speaker 1: I'm opting out of the Marvin Harrison j Let's just say,

968
00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:28,880
Speaker 1: let's see what it looks like.

969
00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:30,800
Speaker 3: I can't saying Kyler problem.

970
00:44:30,880 --> 00:44:33,360
Speaker 1: I can't weigh in on this anymore. Yeah, Garrett Wilson,

971
00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:36,640
Speaker 1: I do still like but yeah, Tyreek and DK Metcalf easily.

972
00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:38,319
Speaker 1: I would take Pickens there, I will. I'm with you

973
00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:40,959
Speaker 1: on that, all right, you give me your next league winner.

974
00:44:41,880 --> 00:44:45,600
Speaker 3: Dude. This comes down to just again, talent, opportunity and

975
00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:51,960
Speaker 3: canned the can the the the realistic realm of like

976
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:55,600
Speaker 3: appear if anything were to happen to AJ Brown. And

977
00:44:55,640 --> 00:44:57,640
Speaker 3: that leads me to the Vonta Smith, a guy that

978
00:44:57,680 --> 00:45:00,879
Speaker 3: has been disrespected because he's been so good he has

979
00:45:00,960 --> 00:45:03,759
Speaker 3: lulled people to sleep. He has been dropping as a

980
00:45:03,800 --> 00:45:06,880
Speaker 3: wide receiver three in some drafts and rankings. Yes, I

981
00:45:06,920 --> 00:45:08,719
Speaker 3: see you all in ECR ranking him as a wide

982
00:45:08,719 --> 00:45:13,040
Speaker 3: receiver three. It's blasphemous. Davonta Smith has been a wide

983
00:45:13,080 --> 00:45:16,759
Speaker 3: receiver two over each of the last three seasons, wide

984
00:45:16,760 --> 00:45:19,760
Speaker 3: receiver fifteen, twenty and fourteen and Fantasy points per game.

985
00:45:20,040 --> 00:45:22,600
Speaker 3: And again the way where he is a league winner

986
00:45:22,640 --> 00:45:24,920
Speaker 3: and playing sight well, you want to play the card

987
00:45:24,960 --> 00:45:28,040
Speaker 3: of he in some spots, you're drafting him. In some

988
00:45:28,080 --> 00:45:32,399
Speaker 3: places his ADP is a wide receiver three. Okay, that's ridiculous.

989
00:45:32,480 --> 00:45:35,320
Speaker 3: So he's gonna pay off even if AJ Brown stays healthy,

990
00:45:35,480 --> 00:45:38,040
Speaker 3: because that's what he's done. The Philadelphia Eagles are gonna

991
00:45:38,040 --> 00:45:40,680
Speaker 3: throw more than they did last year. That is just

992
00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:43,319
Speaker 3: simple regression. I'm not telling you how much they're gonna

993
00:45:43,320 --> 00:45:46,000
Speaker 3: throw him. It's gonna be more because it was so

994
00:45:46,320 --> 00:45:51,200
Speaker 3: legendarily low last year. That is going to change. And

995
00:45:51,239 --> 00:45:53,399
Speaker 3: then we want to talk about AJ Brown. I love

996
00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:56,560
Speaker 3: AJ Brown, but AJ Brown there are risks when we

997
00:45:56,640 --> 00:45:58,920
Speaker 3: hear reports of last year too. They were draining his

998
00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:03,279
Speaker 3: knee a multiple times, multiple occasions during the week, and

999
00:46:03,320 --> 00:46:06,839
Speaker 3: where he's another year older and more hits absorbed. I'm

1000
00:46:06,840 --> 00:46:09,200
Speaker 3: not forecasting. I do not want to see AJ Brown

1001
00:46:09,280 --> 00:46:12,720
Speaker 3: hurt or missing time, But if it happens, we've already

1002
00:46:12,719 --> 00:46:15,480
Speaker 3: seen what that looks like. People DeVonta Smith last year,

1003
00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:17,040
Speaker 3: and in one of these two games, and I know

1004
00:46:17,080 --> 00:46:19,359
Speaker 3: we're dealing with the small sample size. One of these

1005
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:22,239
Speaker 3: two games, DeVonta Smith didn't even play the entirety of

1006
00:46:22,280 --> 00:46:24,200
Speaker 3: the game. But in the two games he was on

1007
00:46:24,200 --> 00:46:28,160
Speaker 3: the field without AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith had a twenty

1008
00:46:28,239 --> 00:46:31,520
Speaker 3: nine point four percent target share, he had fifty eight

1009
00:46:31,640 --> 00:46:34,640
Speaker 3: percent of the air yards, he had a thirty nine

1010
00:46:34,719 --> 00:46:38,439
Speaker 3: percent first read share, and he scored seventeen point eight

1011
00:46:38,560 --> 00:46:41,120
Speaker 3: PPR points per game, which if he would have done

1012
00:46:41,120 --> 00:46:43,160
Speaker 3: that for the entirety of the season. And I get

1013
00:46:43,239 --> 00:46:46,520
Speaker 3: it's a two game sample. Sorry, I can't manufacture other

1014
00:46:46,600 --> 00:46:48,560
Speaker 3: games that AJ Brown didn't miss because he didn't miss

1015
00:46:48,600 --> 00:46:51,560
Speaker 3: any other games. So with this sample, seventeen point eight

1016
00:46:51,600 --> 00:46:54,719
Speaker 3: PPR points per game, people, that would have qualified an

1017
00:46:54,719 --> 00:46:57,800
Speaker 3: equal as the wide receiver eight last year. So I

1018
00:46:57,800 --> 00:46:59,360
Speaker 3: don't know how much more league winner we got to

1019
00:46:59,400 --> 00:47:00,399
Speaker 3: talk about, but that's it.

1020
00:47:01,080 --> 00:47:03,680
Speaker 1: Bit of a forgotten man. Like we talked earlier Debra

1021
00:47:03,719 --> 00:47:05,920
Speaker 1: about how Courtland Sutton is somebody that hasn't really come

1022
00:47:06,000 --> 00:47:07,680
Speaker 1: up on shows that much this year, I feel like

1023
00:47:07,719 --> 00:47:10,800
Speaker 1: Smith is also in that bucket where he's just like, yeah,

1024
00:47:10,840 --> 00:47:14,040
Speaker 1: he's ranked in the early twenties IT receiver and everybody

1025
00:47:14,120 --> 00:47:16,000
Speaker 1: kind of knows he's number two in the offense and

1026
00:47:16,040 --> 00:47:18,600
Speaker 1: he's a good player in the offense. And YadA YadA YadA,

1027
00:47:18,640 --> 00:47:20,680
Speaker 1: and it's like, I just feel like there hasn't really

1028
00:47:20,719 --> 00:47:23,200
Speaker 1: been much conversation about him, so I'm happy to hear

1029
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:26,080
Speaker 1: you kind of highlighting that. Like, no, he's not just

1030
00:47:26,200 --> 00:47:29,680
Speaker 1: like a known commodity. He is a real upside swing too,

1031
00:47:29,760 --> 00:47:32,680
Speaker 1: if the circumstances, you know, really present himself that way.

1032
00:47:32,719 --> 00:47:35,879
Speaker 2: Tom, Yeah, absolutely. I mean I didn't write too much

1033
00:47:35,920 --> 00:47:38,120
Speaker 2: down for DeVonta Smith because I just feel like it's

1034
00:47:38,120 --> 00:47:41,680
Speaker 2: always a very easy argument to write. It's look, Debo

1035
00:47:41,760 --> 00:47:44,400
Speaker 2: said it, people don't appreciate how good he is, huge

1036
00:47:44,440 --> 00:47:46,920
Speaker 2: contingent value of aj Brown missus time. But it's also

1037
00:47:47,120 --> 00:47:50,440
Speaker 2: Dallas Scudda, who has played twelve games, four long games

1038
00:47:50,440 --> 00:47:53,560
Speaker 2: and ten games over the last three seasons. So it

1039
00:47:53,600 --> 00:47:55,920
Speaker 2: feels like you get a spike out of whichever of

1040
00:47:55,960 --> 00:47:59,120
Speaker 2: the top three in this passing. For Alume, it is

1041
00:47:59,280 --> 00:48:02,640
Speaker 2: because it is very concentrated in Philadelphia, like wide receiver three.

1042
00:48:02,680 --> 00:48:04,760
Speaker 2: It just doesn't matter. You don't need to worry yourself

1043
00:48:04,760 --> 00:48:07,160
Speaker 2: about Johanne Dotten or whoever it is. Of a minute,

1044
00:48:07,640 --> 00:48:09,719
Speaker 2: and then in each of the last two seasons he

1045
00:48:09,760 --> 00:48:13,040
Speaker 2: said seven games over fifteen PPR points in both of them.

1046
00:48:13,360 --> 00:48:16,200
Speaker 2: To put that in a further context, last year you

1047
00:48:16,239 --> 00:48:19,399
Speaker 2: look at like the top twenty six qbs were all

1048
00:48:19,400 --> 00:48:23,080
Speaker 2: scoring over fifteen points on average. Like, that's like basement

1049
00:48:23,200 --> 00:48:26,960
Speaker 2: replacement level for your QB two in Superflex a lot

1050
00:48:27,000 --> 00:48:29,560
Speaker 2: of the time QB three on a bad week. That's

1051
00:48:29,600 --> 00:48:32,240
Speaker 2: what DeVonta Smith gives you. It's just a really high ceiling,

1052
00:48:32,360 --> 00:48:35,520
Speaker 2: really good flow. And I don't care about the arguments

1053
00:48:35,520 --> 00:48:37,719
Speaker 2: about the Eagles won't pass that much. Like, I just

1054
00:48:37,840 --> 00:48:39,439
Speaker 2: like having good players on my team.

1055
00:48:39,520 --> 00:48:43,480
Speaker 1: Sometimes to give me yeah to, I'll give you your

1056
00:48:43,520 --> 00:48:45,000
Speaker 1: last league when are hiding in plain sight.

1057
00:48:45,520 --> 00:48:47,319
Speaker 2: So it's the one which a lot of people will

1058
00:48:47,320 --> 00:48:50,839
Speaker 2: find a difficult one because some people, some people are

1059
00:48:50,880 --> 00:48:53,319
Speaker 2: afraid to take risks and some people are afraid to

1060
00:48:53,360 --> 00:48:57,319
Speaker 2: have fun. And it's Travis Hunter like, look, there's there's

1061
00:48:57,360 --> 00:49:01,279
Speaker 2: no denying that this is an upside swing. And I

1062
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:03,319
Speaker 2: get that it's not going to be for everybody, but

1063
00:49:03,480 --> 00:49:06,880
Speaker 2: like particularly in home leagues, Like, look, I've played a

1064
00:49:06,920 --> 00:49:09,440
Speaker 2: lot of fantasy contests. I've won some good money playing

1065
00:49:09,480 --> 00:49:13,040
Speaker 2: fantasy contests in big competitions. I've not won my home

1066
00:49:13,120 --> 00:49:16,600
Speaker 2: league in the last six seven years. I want to

1067
00:49:16,600 --> 00:49:19,200
Speaker 2: take swings. I need to shoot for upside, and Travis

1068
00:49:19,280 --> 00:49:21,719
Speaker 2: Hunter represents exactly the kind of guy who can do this.

1069
00:49:22,080 --> 00:49:24,360
Speaker 2: Everyone wants to get worried about. Okay, well he's going

1070
00:49:24,440 --> 00:49:28,400
Speaker 2: to play on defense, blah blah blah. Right, Trevor Lawrence's

1071
00:49:28,400 --> 00:49:31,719
Speaker 2: touchdown line is set at twenty two point five this year. Now,

1072
00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:34,360
Speaker 2: if Trevor Lawrence is out there struggling to score touchdowns,

1073
00:49:34,560 --> 00:49:36,919
Speaker 2: do we think that they're gonna put the second best

1074
00:49:36,960 --> 00:49:39,839
Speaker 2: wide receiver on this team out there. I don't think

1075
00:49:39,880 --> 00:49:42,480
Speaker 2: that's why they brought Tim Patrick to the Jags. I

1076
00:49:42,480 --> 00:49:45,759
Speaker 2: think that Liam Cohen is absolutely going to maximize what

1077
00:49:45,800 --> 00:49:46,799
Speaker 2: you get from Travis Hunter.

1078
00:49:47,000 --> 00:49:47,239
Speaker 3: Why.

1079
00:49:47,400 --> 00:49:50,919
Speaker 2: Because Liam Cohen is an offensive minded coach. He came there,

1080
00:49:51,040 --> 00:49:54,120
Speaker 2: he drafted Travis Hunter, he gave up draft capital, knowing

1081
00:49:54,160 --> 00:49:56,479
Speaker 2: that it's gonna make his job harder in future years

1082
00:49:56,520 --> 00:49:58,319
Speaker 2: to do so. And I think he's going to put

1083
00:49:58,360 --> 00:50:00,439
Speaker 2: an emphasis on the screen game, which was so huge

1084
00:50:00,440 --> 00:50:02,840
Speaker 2: for books last year. It was second with ninety one screens.

1085
00:50:02,960 --> 00:50:06,120
Speaker 2: That's an easy way to top fantasy value. And when

1086
00:50:06,160 --> 00:50:08,760
Speaker 2: I watched Travis Fonner, it's very similar to DeVonta Smith.

1087
00:50:08,960 --> 00:50:11,120
Speaker 2: People start going, oh okay, well least quite slim as

1088
00:50:11,120 --> 00:50:13,560
Speaker 2: he can hold up. Maybe he will struggle attle bit

1089
00:50:13,560 --> 00:50:16,440
Speaker 2: on defense, but this guy one with Blintakough Award for

1090
00:50:16,480 --> 00:50:18,960
Speaker 2: best receiver in college. I've got every faith in him

1091
00:50:19,000 --> 00:50:21,680
Speaker 2: being fun for fantasy and a good fantasy football pick

1092
00:50:21,680 --> 00:50:22,600
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty five.

1093
00:50:23,880 --> 00:50:25,720
Speaker 1: I am one of those people who have been playing

1094
00:50:25,760 --> 00:50:29,839
Speaker 1: scared for most of the summer. When it's official, people,

1095
00:50:29,920 --> 00:50:31,080
Speaker 1: well here's.

1096
00:50:30,640 --> 00:50:31,200
Speaker 3: The other thing.

1097
00:50:31,560 --> 00:50:33,920
Speaker 1: And we didn't name this player, and I think we

1098
00:50:33,960 --> 00:50:35,600
Speaker 1: could have. But a guy who could have been on

1099
00:50:35,640 --> 00:50:37,440
Speaker 1: this list as a league winner hiding a plain sight

1100
00:50:37,640 --> 00:50:40,360
Speaker 1: is his fellow top ten rookie pick in Teoa McMillan.

1101
00:50:40,360 --> 00:50:42,080
Speaker 1: We've talked about him a lot, so I'm okay with

1102
00:50:42,160 --> 00:50:44,520
Speaker 1: us not including him. I have put a lot of

1103
00:50:44,520 --> 00:50:49,040
Speaker 1: my high end rookie receiver investment, you know, hope and

1104
00:50:49,080 --> 00:50:54,359
Speaker 1: optimism and enthusiasm into McMillan instead of Hunter. There's room

1105
00:50:54,360 --> 00:50:56,600
Speaker 1: to do both, of course, but that is one reason

1106
00:50:56,600 --> 00:50:58,960
Speaker 1: why I've like not shied away, but like I've just

1107
00:50:59,000 --> 00:51:02,360
Speaker 1: been less you know, Hunter. But I think Hunter is

1108
00:51:02,360 --> 00:51:05,480
Speaker 1: actually like maybe the perfect answer for this question in

1109
00:51:05,560 --> 00:51:07,880
Speaker 1: terms of literally how we're defining it, Like could be

1110
00:51:07,880 --> 00:51:10,600
Speaker 1: a league winner, like a number two overall pick uber talented,

1111
00:51:10,640 --> 00:51:13,399
Speaker 1: like opportunity to all that stuff hiding in plain in sight.

1112
00:51:14,200 --> 00:51:16,279
Speaker 1: You were given cover by the fact that there is

1113
00:51:16,320 --> 00:51:20,520
Speaker 1: this uncertainty with the defensive usage and just like what

1114
00:51:20,560 --> 00:51:22,960
Speaker 1: he is going to look like in the NFL, that

1115
00:51:23,160 --> 00:51:26,360
Speaker 1: is keeping the ADP obviously lower than it would be

1116
00:51:26,400 --> 00:51:28,319
Speaker 1: if he was strictly an offensive player. Like then there

1117
00:51:28,360 --> 00:51:31,160
Speaker 1: was never even any hint of any of the defensive stuff.

1118
00:51:31,600 --> 00:51:34,759
Speaker 1: And that is an opportunity to take a swing like

1119
00:51:34,800 --> 00:51:37,799
Speaker 1: you laid out Tom and really like like again, you're

1120
00:51:37,800 --> 00:51:39,440
Speaker 1: not trying to finish fourth in your league, right, You're

1121
00:51:39,440 --> 00:51:41,719
Speaker 1: trying to finish first. Travis Hunter is a guy who,

1122
00:51:41,719 --> 00:51:42,640
Speaker 1: if it works, can do that.

1123
00:51:43,120 --> 00:51:45,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, and just also to just go further with it.

1124
00:51:45,520 --> 00:51:48,040
Speaker 2: It's like you can make an argument that Okay, like

1125
00:51:48,160 --> 00:51:50,520
Speaker 2: I love brand Thomas Afoyt. It was phenomenal last year,

1126
00:51:50,760 --> 00:51:53,880
Speaker 2: but his best play came with Mac Jones. Trevor Lawrence

1127
00:51:54,280 --> 00:51:56,640
Speaker 2: like he has been a bit conservative as a quarterback

1128
00:51:56,680 --> 00:51:59,640
Speaker 2: and maybe Liam Cohen unlocks him. But what Liam Cohen

1129
00:51:59,640 --> 00:52:02,440
Speaker 2: also was really good at. Sorry, what Trevor Lawrence has

1130
00:52:02,480 --> 00:52:05,359
Speaker 2: been reliable with was like Pepper and Christiane Kirk over

1131
00:52:05,360 --> 00:52:07,600
Speaker 2: the last few years. If we see him latch onto

1132
00:52:07,640 --> 00:52:10,560
Speaker 2: Travis Hunter in that kind of role, then that could

1133
00:52:10,560 --> 00:52:12,880
Speaker 2: be massive for him. Maybe it doesn't happen quite like that,

1134
00:52:12,960 --> 00:52:16,319
Speaker 2: but I'm absolutely willing to lose my league taking a

1135
00:52:16,360 --> 00:52:17,400
Speaker 2: swing on Travis.

1136
00:52:17,120 --> 00:52:19,560
Speaker 1: Hunner, Deebra, Where do you actually have Hunter ranked?

1137
00:52:20,040 --> 00:52:22,239
Speaker 3: I have my wide receiver twenty five. I have him

1138
00:52:22,280 --> 00:52:24,960
Speaker 3: at fifty second overall. Right now in real time ADP,

1139
00:52:25,120 --> 00:52:27,719
Speaker 3: he is wide receiver thirty one and seventy fourth overall.

1140
00:52:28,280 --> 00:52:31,480
Speaker 3: I am aggressively ahead because I am with everything that

1141
00:52:31,560 --> 00:52:35,880
Speaker 3: Tom laid out here and the thing that goes down. Man,

1142
00:52:36,760 --> 00:52:39,319
Speaker 3: the Jacksonville Jaguars make this trade. You think they make

1143
00:52:39,360 --> 00:52:42,520
Speaker 3: that aggressive trade up for a freaking cornerback. No, that

1144
00:52:42,920 --> 00:52:44,960
Speaker 3: move is for a wide receiver and for everybody that

1145
00:52:45,040 --> 00:52:47,759
Speaker 3: says Travis Hunt is gonna play so much corner this year.

1146
00:52:47,800 --> 00:52:50,440
Speaker 3: All right, let's walk to schedule. People, tell me what

1147
00:52:50,640 --> 00:52:55,640
Speaker 3: helps this team more? A full time wide receiver adding

1148
00:52:55,680 --> 00:52:58,640
Speaker 3: to an offense. Where outside of Brian Thomas Junior, are

1149
00:52:58,680 --> 00:53:03,120
Speaker 3: you worried about Tim Pak, Diami Brown, Parker Washington, Brenton Strange.

1150
00:53:03,480 --> 00:53:05,680
Speaker 3: None of these guys are gonna command over a fifteen

1151
00:53:05,680 --> 00:53:09,760
Speaker 3: to eighteen percent target chair even in the best of circumstances.

1152
00:53:10,120 --> 00:53:14,960
Speaker 3: But you walk this schedule, what's helping them the most

1153
00:53:15,480 --> 00:53:19,280
Speaker 3: a part time wide receiver, part time cornerback or adding

1154
00:53:19,320 --> 00:53:23,040
Speaker 3: one cornerback to this defense. When you play the Cincinnati Bengals,

1155
00:53:23,040 --> 00:53:25,360
Speaker 3: you play Houston, you play the forty nine Ers, the Chiefs,

1156
00:53:26,200 --> 00:53:31,719
Speaker 3: the Rams, Houston again, the Chargers, the Cardinals, Denver, you

1157
00:53:31,760 --> 00:53:35,479
Speaker 3: play all of those different teams. Is a part time

1158
00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:41,680
Speaker 3: cornerback gonna help them stop teams from scoring enough? Or

1159
00:53:41,719 --> 00:53:44,160
Speaker 3: do you think they need a full time wide receiver

1160
00:53:44,280 --> 00:53:48,720
Speaker 3: to the offense to outscore teams? They need a wide receiver,

1161
00:53:48,880 --> 00:53:51,600
Speaker 3: they need firepower. You make them move up the board

1162
00:53:52,080 --> 00:53:55,960
Speaker 3: aggressively because you believe he's a wide receiver. You believe

1163
00:53:55,960 --> 00:53:59,040
Speaker 3: he's a difference maker, and you need that for your offense.

1164
00:53:59,280 --> 00:54:01,359
Speaker 3: So I'm with Tom on all the parts and pieces here.

1165
00:54:02,080 --> 00:54:03,440
Speaker 1: Travis Hunter is a Flowers.

1166
00:54:04,920 --> 00:54:07,400
Speaker 3: I mean, I have Travis Hunter ranked ahead as a Flowers.

1167
00:54:07,400 --> 00:54:10,400
Speaker 3: So Travis Hunter, I'm.

1168
00:54:10,080 --> 00:54:13,080
Speaker 2: Just say Flowers. But it's very close. It's like literally

1169
00:54:13,120 --> 00:54:13,719
Speaker 2: back to back.

1170
00:54:14,920 --> 00:54:17,120
Speaker 1: We're gonna do a little bit of a mail bag here,

1171
00:54:17,200 --> 00:54:19,440
Speaker 1: just a quick, short one, and I solicited some questions

1172
00:54:19,440 --> 00:54:22,720
Speaker 1: from folks on Twitter of their own wide receiver breakouts,

1173
00:54:22,719 --> 00:54:24,080
Speaker 1: so we'll see what they say and what we think

1174
00:54:24,120 --> 00:54:26,560
Speaker 1: about those answers. These questions came from Twitter, but if

1175
00:54:26,560 --> 00:54:29,000
Speaker 1: you want faster replies for your questions, you can head

1176
00:54:29,040 --> 00:54:31,000
Speaker 1: to our discord to chat with other fans and get

1177
00:54:31,000 --> 00:54:34,200
Speaker 1: access to exclusive amas that wind up on our podcast feed.

1178
00:54:34,200 --> 00:54:36,600
Speaker 1: Our current schedule looks like this, myself in fits at

1179
00:54:36,640 --> 00:54:39,240
Speaker 1: five eastern on the first Tuesday of every month, Bogman

1180
00:54:39,320 --> 00:54:41,200
Speaker 1: and Fits at five eastern on the third Tuesday of

1181
00:54:41,239 --> 00:54:44,360
Speaker 1: every month, and Welsh and ericson Thursdays at two eastern.

1182
00:54:44,520 --> 00:54:47,319
Speaker 1: Come get your questions answered and be on the show

1183
00:54:47,360 --> 00:54:51,000
Speaker 1: at fantasypros dot com slash chat. Hey guys, I know

1184
00:54:51,040 --> 00:54:52,440
Speaker 1: what I just read about, Like, oh, we're going to

1185
00:54:52,480 --> 00:54:55,319
Speaker 1: see what these people say. Every single submission. We didn't

1186
00:54:55,320 --> 00:54:57,040
Speaker 1: get that many this time. You're you know, people are busy.

1187
00:54:57,640 --> 00:55:00,200
Speaker 1: Every single submission was a name we talked about on

1188
00:55:00,239 --> 00:55:03,600
Speaker 1: the show. It was George Wickens, it was a Mecca Vuka,

1189
00:55:03,719 --> 00:55:06,440
Speaker 1: it was Ricky Pearsall, it was Travis Hutter. So the

1190
00:55:06,520 --> 00:55:08,960
Speaker 1: folks are agreeing with us. We don't need to weigh

1191
00:55:09,120 --> 00:55:12,719
Speaker 1: necessarily on those sub issues because obviously we already did.

1192
00:55:12,920 --> 00:55:15,040
Speaker 1: I did get a mailback question DM to me that

1193
00:55:15,080 --> 00:55:17,520
Speaker 1: I want to bring up here, as comes from Jack.

1194
00:55:18,080 --> 00:55:20,919
Speaker 1: He's wondering what we're doing with players like Cedric Tillman, who,

1195
00:55:21,120 --> 00:55:24,200
Speaker 1: as he defines it, pure hype players, but who have

1196
00:55:24,280 --> 00:55:28,520
Speaker 1: had limited results so far. So those guys like Cedric Tillman, debro,

1197
00:55:28,800 --> 00:55:31,040
Speaker 1: what are you doing with him in drafts?

1198
00:55:32,000 --> 00:55:35,439
Speaker 3: I'm out on Cedric Tillman. I am so far out

1199
00:55:35,480 --> 00:55:38,680
Speaker 3: on Cedric Tillman. The counting stats and the raw box

1200
00:55:38,760 --> 00:55:44,240
Speaker 3: score filling was all because Cleveland ran so many freaking plays,

1201
00:55:44,800 --> 00:55:47,560
Speaker 3: like in that stint where he was awesome. They ranked

1202
00:55:47,680 --> 00:55:51,360
Speaker 3: third in passing attempts and second in passing rate. So

1203
00:55:51,480 --> 00:55:56,120
Speaker 3: all of that wonderful volume perfume is covering up for

1204
00:55:56,200 --> 00:55:59,879
Speaker 3: a guy that in that stretch had one point seven

1205
00:56:00,000 --> 00:56:03,120
Speaker 3: one yards per route run, zero point zero seven eight

1206
00:56:03,200 --> 00:56:05,440
Speaker 3: first downs per route run. He was eighty second in

1207
00:56:05,480 --> 00:56:08,719
Speaker 3: separation ninetieth and route win rate. It was just a

1208
00:56:08,719 --> 00:56:11,080
Speaker 3: perfect storm for Cedric Tillman. So I am out, And

1209
00:56:11,480 --> 00:56:13,160
Speaker 3: the what I do with a lot of those guys

1210
00:56:13,280 --> 00:56:16,120
Speaker 3: it comes down to, like this goes back to process

1211
00:56:16,280 --> 00:56:19,440
Speaker 3: and how I break down guys, and when I'm writing

1212
00:56:19,440 --> 00:56:22,799
Speaker 3: them up and looking at their analytics and stuff like that.

1213
00:56:22,800 --> 00:56:26,520
Speaker 3: That's where it helps to clarify things. So when I

1214
00:56:26,560 --> 00:56:29,600
Speaker 3: was writing up the top two fifty players like Kean

1215
00:56:29,719 --> 00:56:34,200
Speaker 3: Coleman fully out Cedric Tillman, I am out Marque's Hollywood

1216
00:56:34,200 --> 00:56:37,320
Speaker 3: Brown Again, all of these guys that are like back

1217
00:56:37,360 --> 00:56:40,840
Speaker 3: of the you know, final round picks for people, count

1218
00:56:40,880 --> 00:56:42,440
Speaker 3: me out on all of them because all of the

1219
00:56:42,480 --> 00:56:44,320
Speaker 3: metrics are horrible.

1220
00:56:45,120 --> 00:56:47,520
Speaker 1: Tom So, I'm.

1221
00:56:47,360 --> 00:56:50,000
Speaker 2: Currently more interested in Tilman than I am in Judy.

1222
00:56:50,239 --> 00:56:51,880
Speaker 2: And it's kind of links back to a lot of

1223
00:56:51,920 --> 00:56:56,040
Speaker 2: what Deebro was saying that I think the period when

1224
00:56:56,520 --> 00:56:59,520
Speaker 2: people are holding up Judy's ADP is swift perood, which

1225
00:56:59,520 --> 00:57:01,600
Speaker 2: will not miss certainly going to see. I think that

1226
00:57:01,600 --> 00:57:05,000
Speaker 2: people are expecting too much from Joe Flacco. Like Joe

1227
00:57:05,040 --> 00:57:07,680
Speaker 2: Flacco was bad enough last year that he got benched

1228
00:57:07,760 --> 00:57:10,239
Speaker 2: for Colts, and people seem to forget that he didn't play.

1229
00:57:10,280 --> 00:57:12,640
Speaker 2: In Week seventeen, it was Anthony Richardson. He was averaging

1230
00:57:12,719 --> 00:57:15,600
Speaker 2: three sacks per game, one point two interceptions per game.

1231
00:57:15,880 --> 00:57:19,400
Speaker 2: That's stuff that kills drives, that's stuff that gets you benched. Now,

1232
00:57:19,800 --> 00:57:22,440
Speaker 2: I think that there's enough there that Tillman. I'm okay

1233
00:57:22,520 --> 00:57:25,280
Speaker 2: taking the shop because Tilman is so much cheaper than

1234
00:57:25,360 --> 00:57:28,240
Speaker 2: Jerry Judy. But on the whole, yeah, I've been avoiding

1235
00:57:28,360 --> 00:57:30,440
Speaker 2: the Cleveland wide receivers in general.

1236
00:57:31,120 --> 00:57:33,080
Speaker 1: All right, we'll go ahead and wrap things up there.

1237
00:57:33,120 --> 00:57:36,680
Speaker 1: Thanks everybody for checking out our wide receiver breakout candidates

1238
00:57:36,760 --> 00:57:39,800
Speaker 1: for Debro and Tom, I'm Ryan Warmley. Thanks for tuning in.

1239
00:57:40,080 --> 00:57:42,320
Speaker 1: We'll see again next time. Thanks for listening to the

1240
00:57:42,360 --> 00:57:45,520
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you love the show,

1241
00:57:45,640 --> 00:57:48,160
Speaker 1: the best free way to support us is by leaving

1242
00:57:48,160 --> 00:57:51,760
Speaker 1: a positive review on Apple podcasts at Fantasypros dot com

1243
00:57:51,800 --> 00:57:55,880
Speaker 1: slash review, or on Spotify. Follow us on x, Instagram

1244
00:57:55,920 --> 00:57:58,920
Speaker 1: and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube

1245
00:57:58,960 --> 00:58:01,360
Speaker 1: channel at YouTube dot com com slash Fantasy Pros