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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place

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Speaker 1: your bets and it's me Joey P joe P Zapia

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Speaker 1: and this is BP NFL. It's time to look ahead

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Speaker 1: to the props for week four. Andrew Erickson is out

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Speaker 1: at a wedding somewhere catching bouquet. So Pat fitz Morris

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Speaker 1: my Patty Cakes are gonna join us from the Fantasy

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Speaker 1: pro side of things, along with the Welsh, and we're

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Speaker 1: gonna help you get through all the props you need

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Speaker 1: to know. And by the way, just a shout out

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Speaker 1: to go to Bettingpros dot com slash props because on

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Speaker 1: the app we're having NFL Prop Madness Contest and you

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Speaker 1: have to say it like that. I've been told Prop

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Speaker 1: Madness Contest is going to be something you gotta get into,

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Speaker 1: so make your picks win some amazing prizes at oh god,

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Speaker 1: what's it called again? Prop Madness Contest. That's the thing

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Speaker 1: you gotta get to, so go check it out today.

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Speaker 1: It's fun, free stuff. Everybody loves it. Welsh. Let's take

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Speaker 1: a look at the record for last week. Last week

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Speaker 1: you were two and three. You're almost five hundred on

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Speaker 1: the year got the two touchdown calls in the year.

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Speaker 1: Ericson and myself nailed both. Though yesterday or last week,

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Speaker 1: I should say, so we're up to three. Ericson though,

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Speaker 1: had a very convenient time to go to this wedding

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Speaker 1: Welsh because he was one and four last week on

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Speaker 1: the show. I'm just saying, maybe he could use the

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Speaker 1: open bar in the cocktail hour.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he had a rough one. He knew he had

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Speaker 2: a rough one too, and also he I just want

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Speaker 2: to point out he absolutely jinxed me in it, so mine,

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Speaker 2: you know, I was close on one. Blah blah blah,

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Speaker 2: doesn't matter. I'm not happy with the day. But the biggest,

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Speaker 2: most important thing was the ladder that I had. Yes,

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Speaker 2: we did hit two sides of the ladder, so I

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Speaker 2: think that's like a pseudo win. I'm not getting extra

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Speaker 2: points or anything. But but Ericson dms me right before

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Speaker 2: this or right as a game is going on, ceedee

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Speaker 2: lamb gets hurt. He's like, one in four, you got this,

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Speaker 2: You're gonna smash this, your due, it's gonna happen. I

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Speaker 2: was like, brother, don't do this, don't jink this. And

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Speaker 2: guess what, Yep, there wasn't a catch after he said

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Speaker 2: that up until Joe Milton came in and was able

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Speaker 2: to get the last two legs. Absolutely put his bad

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Speaker 2: juju on that bet. But we did get two legs,

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Speaker 2: so I'm not super happy about it, but we're gonna

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Speaker 2: turn around it this week, and yeah, very convenient if

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Speaker 2: I go one and four, I'm also gonna have to

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Speaker 2: go catch some bouquets.

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Speaker 1: By the way, be prepared, Pat, You're in a great

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Speaker 1: spot because Ericson said the bar solo last week, it's

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Speaker 1: all gravy. You just got to get two and you're

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Speaker 1: you're already twice and you're not us.

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Speaker 2: So like everyone's gonna be super happy. They're like, oh,

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Speaker 2: yeshi's who too, Yahoo's out of here.

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Speaker 3: I mean Ericson went one in four last week. I

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Speaker 3: get to try to dig the Undertaker out of his

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Speaker 3: cel grave piece. Yeah, so I can't lose.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's kick things off your Welsh What do

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Speaker 1: you have here for the people? Starting with your first

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Speaker 1: prop bet for week four?

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Speaker 2: All right, if you've listened to me at all this

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Speaker 2: week over on Fantasy Pros, I have taken every opportunity

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Speaker 2: to talk about this guy and I was trying to

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Speaker 2: find what was the spot that I wanted to bet

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Speaker 2: him in rushing yards kind of came in hot, they

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Speaker 2: came down a little bit, so I decided to move

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Speaker 2: off of it because I really like the rush attempts

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Speaker 2: and that player is Quinchon Jutkins. So we are going

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Speaker 2: to take quinch On Jutkins rushing attempts fourteen point five. Oh,

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Speaker 2: I've even seen some thirteens. They're pretty heavily juiced. Cleveland

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Speaker 2: currently ranks tenth in the NFL in rush attempts per

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Speaker 2: game at twenty five per game. Judkins in Week three

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Speaker 2: had the highest team rush attempt percentage of any running

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Speaker 2: back in the NFL. It was over ninety percent. Eighteen

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Speaker 2: of nineteen carries for the team went to him, and

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Speaker 2: that was actually even a little bit low on the

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Speaker 2: rush attempts. At the end of the day, the thing

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Speaker 2: that this team is attempting to do is control clock.

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Speaker 2: They were able to do it against the Green Bay Packers.

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Speaker 2: They were able to really disrupt by the way the

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Speaker 2: Cincinnati Bengals, and the thing I think they've come to

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Speaker 2: terms with now having a guy like Judkins who is

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Speaker 2: getting yards before contact on the offensive line getting yards

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Speaker 2: after contact. He's forcing misstackles get the ball in his hands.

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Speaker 2: He's disrupting defenses, even though he didn't really get going

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Speaker 2: until like the second half of the fourth quarter, like

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Speaker 2: he was just kind of being held. It was boring,

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Speaker 2: but then all of a sudden, he just went off

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Speaker 2: as he just wore down the Green Bay defense. This

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Speaker 2: team wants to get him the ball. It is not

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Speaker 2: Jerome Board, it is not Dylan Samson. This is a

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Speaker 2: low nune. The only thing that puts this in worry

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Speaker 2: mode is if the Lions will absolutely blow the pants

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Speaker 2: off of this team. But this team's defense has played

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Speaker 2: really tough. They're keeping in games, and they continuously run

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Speaker 2: the ball. He looks like a number one, looks like

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Speaker 2: a top fifteen fantasy back rest of season. So I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna go with the rush attempts. We need fifteen of them.

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Speaker 2: Projection wise, Fantasy pros projections have him at sixteen point one,

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Speaker 2: so it works. And the yards waiver on a couple

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Speaker 2: different places and sources between fifty five and seventy, so

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Speaker 2: it's significant enough rushing yards that total is sitting around

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Speaker 2: fifty eight. If maybe you want into toy with it,

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Speaker 2: but I really like the rush attempts fifteen for Judkins.

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Speaker 2: He is a bell cow ladies and gentlemen, and this

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Speaker 2: is one of my favorite bets of the week.

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Speaker 1: All right, so Pat, let's talk about the Jacksonville Jaguars

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Speaker 1: heading to San Francisco. Obviously, it's been a rough start

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Speaker 1: to the year for the Jags and playing in San

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Speaker 1: fran could be tricky. So how do you want to

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Speaker 1: find a prop here for this one? To make some

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Speaker 1: cash in Week four?

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Speaker 3: I'm filling in for the undertaker, so I have to

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Speaker 3: start with an under here, of course, and Welsh, as

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Speaker 3: a forty nine Ers fan, will probably appreciate this one.

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Speaker 3: I'm taking Trevor Lawrence under two hundred and twenty four

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Speaker 3: point five passing yards. The Jacksonville passing game has just

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Speaker 3: been out of sync for the first three weeks this season.

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Speaker 3: Lawrence is completing fifty five point eight percent of his

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Speaker 3: throws and averaging only five point nine yards per attempt.

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Speaker 3: He and Brian Thomas Junior have just not been on

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Speaker 3: the same page. Thomas Junior has only caught twenty eight

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Speaker 3: percent of his targets and seems like he has a

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Speaker 3: case of the yips. He's just dropping some easy throws.

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Speaker 3: San Francisco doesn't seem like a good place for Lawrence

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Speaker 3: and the Jaguars to figure things out, Like they have

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Speaker 3: to travel cross country to face a forty nine ers

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Speaker 3: pass defense that ranks eighth in DVA and has given

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Speaker 3: up the fourth fewest passing yards and is giving up

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Speaker 3: just five point six yards per pass attempt. I know

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Speaker 3: the betting pros prop that sheet sheet likes this one.

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Speaker 3: It has Trevor Lawrence projected for I think two hundred

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Speaker 3: and seventeen. So yeah, I kind of think Lawrence goes

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Speaker 3: under here. I just don't think the Jags are going

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Speaker 3: to figure it out through the air this week.

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Speaker 2: I'm a little worried about no pass rush. I just

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Speaker 2: want to throw this out here. That's one thing like.

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Speaker 3: I os sure.

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Speaker 2: I actually looked at this one and I was, you know,

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Speaker 2: as a is it the over type of person I am?

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Speaker 2: I was looking at maybe the over simply because the

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Speaker 2: lack of pass rush. But to your point, they've got

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Speaker 2: some solid corners in there, and I don't know, I

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Speaker 2: think I actually like Parker Washington is someone to be

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Speaker 2: involved in this, going up against probably rookie Upton stout

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Speaker 2: in here. But you know, like I get why this

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Speaker 2: is there. The pass defense is hell. I'm just worried

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Speaker 2: about their pass rush affecting the ability for other teams

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Speaker 2: to pass, especially if the forty nine ers are up.

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Speaker 2: But this is very, very very slick here.

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Speaker 1: I like it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it'll be interesting to see if Robert Sala can

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Speaker 3: figure out ways to manufacture pressure without Bosa.

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Speaker 1: Well, shouldn't be too hard considering where we're at. Whichever

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Speaker 1: Lawrence at this point too, to get an under just

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Speaker 1: saying it's been you know, a couple of years ago,

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Speaker 1: look like generational quarterback talent prospect, and now we're sitting

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Speaker 1: here going is this gonna work out? It's kind of

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Speaker 1: just been a weird four or five years here for

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Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence. Let's talk about Jamior Gibbs here. I for

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Speaker 1: pick number two Welsh. He has been an absolute monster.

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Speaker 1: I bet his overs a couple of weeks ago in

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Speaker 1: great form. He cashed in that first touchdown for me

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Speaker 1: as well, so good a couple of weeks ago. I

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Speaker 1: love the Lions at home. It's always an easy way

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Speaker 1: to make some money. Receiving ours twenty five and a

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Speaker 1: half I assume this is an over for you this week,

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Speaker 1: even against Cleveland Browns defense that's good but not as

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Speaker 1: good on the road.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, and this is an over of course. Twenty

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Speaker 2: five point five on the receiving yards for Gibbs. A

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Speaker 2: note from PFF, Gibbs rings first and target rate among

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Speaker 2: running backs. Cleveland's defense has faced the third highest rate

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Speaker 2: of RV targets this season, which they are lining out

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Speaker 2: that this is a really, really potentially good spot. So

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Speaker 2: we're staying in this same game. Gibbs and Montgomery are

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Speaker 2: obviously just both forces to be reckoned with. But coming

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Speaker 2: back to talking about that Cleveland defense, a Cleveland defense

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Speaker 2: has been tougher, especially on the ground, so you have

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Speaker 2: to get give involved. He has hit this prop already

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Speaker 2: in two of three games this season, and last week

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Speaker 2: you had Jacobs put up four five for forty off

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Speaker 2: of them, so you know we've got an instance of

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Speaker 2: a running back in the passing game doing some severe stuff.

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Speaker 2: He's currently rocking the third highest target percentage and he

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Speaker 2: is the third highest first read percentage among running backs

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Speaker 2: around sixteen percent. So this is really built around that

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Speaker 2: getting him an open space, like David Montgomery can be

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Speaker 2: a pounder if the Browns do kind of keep this

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Speaker 2: in as like a closer matchup and the running game

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Speaker 2: isn't effective. Jamiir Gibbs is used in the passing game.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: He has not blown the doors off by making huge,

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Speaker 2: big plays, but he gets the targets. So I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: jump back in with Jamir Gibbs. This is my biggest

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Speaker 2: named player. He's got to get the rock and I

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Speaker 2: think it's going to be in the passing game, something

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Speaker 2: that happens against Cleveland defenses. So twenty five point five

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Speaker 2: over on the receiving yards and guess what our friend's

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Speaker 2: over at hard Rock currently rocking the best line for this,

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Speaker 2: So go check today and you can see that all

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Speaker 2: on Betting Pros. That's where I found it. Hard Rock's

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Speaker 2: got the best line.

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Speaker 1: There you go. Also, by the way, speaking of best stuff,

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Speaker 1: my best bet of the week pat is the next

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Speaker 1: one you're going to talk about. So I've rely logged

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Speaker 1: this in the Betting Pros app again. You can follow

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Speaker 1: any of us on there and track our bets along

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Speaker 1: with us, and you can fade us if you like,

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Speaker 1: or you can go with us if you like. But

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Speaker 1: JK Dobbins over sixty four and a half rushing yards.

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Speaker 1: This is my best bet of the week. I'm just

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Speaker 1: shocked if this one doesn't come to fruition and pet.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Dobbins has top this number in all three of

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Speaker 3: the games he's played this season. He's averaging thirteen point

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Speaker 3: seven carries and seventy four rushing yards and five point

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Speaker 3: four yards per carry. Like he's been really efficient. NFL

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Speaker 3: next Gen Stats credits Dobbins with fifty one rushing yards

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Speaker 3: over expected, which is tenth most in the league. And

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Speaker 3: it's just such a good spot shoe like a home

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Speaker 3: game against the Bengals, whose offense looks just completely broken.

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Speaker 3: Broncos are seven and a half point favorites, and I

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Speaker 3: think they're pretty good bets to cover. The number. Should

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Speaker 3: be a run friendly game script for JK. Dobbins and

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Speaker 3: the Broncos. Cincinnati has given up one hundred and ten

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Speaker 3: point three rushing yards per game to running backs. That's

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Speaker 3: six most in the league. Four point five yards per

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Speaker 3: carry they've allowed, and we saw Minnesota's Jordan Mason just

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Speaker 3: completely truck the Bengals last week sixteen carries for one

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Speaker 3: hundred and sixteen yards. It's a great spot for Dobbins.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, game script goes as a way everything does. Also,

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Speaker 1: All right, let's get to the next ones here. Welsh,

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Speaker 1: one of my favorite guys in the sleeper category this season.

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Speaker 1: I don't think people are sleeping on him anymore. It's

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Speaker 1: l like aomanor of the Tennessee Titans. Finally, that schedule

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Speaker 1: is starting to loosen up just a tad here for

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Speaker 1: the Titans. So let's talk about what he could do

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Speaker 1: this week.

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Speaker 2: And maybe the prop market's still sleeping a little bit

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Speaker 2: on him. Maybe we are going receiving yards taking the

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Speaker 2: over of course, thirty two point five is the best

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Speaker 2: number was able to find out. There currently rocks a

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Speaker 2: thirty four point one percent air yard share, which that

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Speaker 2: ranks top thirty in the league. He's like right next

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Speaker 2: to Jamison Williams and Quinton Johnston. We want to talk

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Speaker 2: about unrealized yards around one hundred yards receiving two hundred

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Speaker 2: and twenty eight air yards ridiculous. I mean he is

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Speaker 2: in there for big plays. He's got an over twenty

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Speaker 2: one percent first read share and average six targ gets

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Speaker 2: per game so far. Ratings. We've got the good rating

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Speaker 2: from PFF put on Texans are giving up around two

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Speaker 2: hundred yards passing per game. You've got the projections over

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Speaker 2: on FP have him over forty. You get Calvin Ridley

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Speaker 2: getting first cornerback coverage in here. There's a lot of

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Speaker 2: things that line up. You'd love to see him start

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Speaker 2: going past it. The team's also got to be, you know,

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Speaker 2: good and better to start realizing those those air yards

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Speaker 2: that we're kind of sighting. But at the end of

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Speaker 2: the day, like he makes these big catches, you know,

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Speaker 2: and they are targeting him more and more. He's a

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Speaker 2: bigger piece of this offense and he does it every

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Speaker 2: single week. So you know, I toyed around and stared

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Speaker 2: at receptions. The reception yard crop. I think three point

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Speaker 2: five is really nice and juiced up if you think

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Speaker 2: he's going to get a multitude of targets. But the

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Speaker 2: receiving yards are just so low for a guy that

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Speaker 2: you know is the number two in the passing offense.

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Speaker 2: But at times where Calvin Ridley disappears, he's kind of

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Speaker 2: playing like a number one, and him and Ward continuously

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Speaker 2: start building up this connection. So I think if this

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Speaker 2: smashes this week, you could start to see this line

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Speaker 2: getting closer to It's just his team not great, but

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Speaker 2: this setup in this spot, I think is a really

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Speaker 2: good spot to jump in on. Ilac iminor so give

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Speaker 2: me those receiving yards from a third prop.

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Speaker 1: Pat We discussed Jamior Gibbs earlier. I want to switch

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Speaker 1: the gears to David Montgomery had a big run against

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Speaker 1: the Ravens, which really kind of inflated his overall stats.

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Speaker 1: Is that a reason maybe to look at potentially fading

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Speaker 1: him because the number this week is forty three and

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Speaker 1: a half on that rushing total.

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Speaker 3: I think it is Joe. He had that splashy performance

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Speaker 3: on Monday night in a nationally televised game against the Ravens,

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Speaker 3: who quietly have a really bad run defense this week.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I think maybe this prop is getting over

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Speaker 3: inflated because we know that Montgomery is sharing work with

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Speaker 3: Jamiir Gibbs, who has out carried Montgomery forty three to

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Speaker 3: thirty four this year. Montgomery hasn't had more than twelve

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Speaker 3: rushing attempts in any game this season, and he has

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Speaker 3: a really tough matchup against the Browns, who currently ranked

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Speaker 3: number one in DVOA against the run, and they've allowed

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Speaker 3: it a league law forty two point seven rushing yards

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Speaker 3: per game to running backs this season, and Cleveland is

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Speaker 3: only giving up two point two yards per carry to

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Speaker 3: running backs. So it's hard to see David Montgomery getting

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Speaker 3: to this number with his somewhat limited workload.

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Speaker 1: All right, so fading David Montgomery in true undertaker style.

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Speaker 1: I like that. Pat very good. Don't forget everybody too.

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Speaker 1: If you need extra help with the props prop bet

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00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:27,600
Speaker 1: cheat sheets there support you bettingpros dot Com slash props.

336
00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:30,600
Speaker 1: Just download the app. Doesn't matter what you're betting, passing, rushing,

337
00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:33,120
Speaker 1: receiving stats, any of them. It'll show you the best

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00:15:33,160 --> 00:15:36,040
Speaker 1: projections against the numbers and then where you can find

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Speaker 1: the best lines only at betting pros. That's what the

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Speaker 1: prop bet cheat sheet is. Don't be a tool, use

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Speaker 1: the tools. Okay, let's get to Daniel Jones. Is that

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Speaker 1: a magical season? Well, so far for number four the

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Speaker 1: rushing yards twenty two and a half were going over

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Speaker 1: or under?

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean, what do you think if it was

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Speaker 2: ericson or Pat we would be going under. But we

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Speaker 2: are going to take the over on Daniel Jones of course?

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Speaker 2: Is it the over. Let's go back and just do

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Speaker 2: what I do, and that's target and find those overs

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Speaker 2: and Daniel Jones on the rushing yards which I've seen

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00:16:04,520 --> 00:16:07,120
Speaker 2: float around in some different spots, that's I know, even

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Speaker 2: cheap plug for it. But betting pros going in and

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Speaker 2: checking out, like the analyzer and everything that we've got

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Speaker 2: in there, like being able to see the lines across

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Speaker 2: the books. This one has floated between like I've seen

356
00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:19,160
Speaker 2: a twenty that was juiced to twenty four. This is

357
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Speaker 2: the line I settled out at twenty two point five.

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Speaker 2: But I like this spot. Rams have given this rushing

359
00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:27,120
Speaker 2: yard prop up to quarterbacks and already two of three games,

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Speaker 2: and in those two the quarterback had five or more carries. Well,

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Speaker 2: guess what. Daniel Jones averages over five carries per game.

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Speaker 2: He's had six in each of the latter six plus

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Speaker 2: in each of the last two, and he has hit

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Speaker 2: this rushing yard prop in two of three games so

365
00:16:42,240 --> 00:16:45,600
Speaker 2: far this season. Projections from Fantasy Pros I like to

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00:16:45,640 --> 00:16:48,480
Speaker 2: cite PFF both of those have him going over this total.

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Speaker 2: I'd also say that, like the pass rush coming in,

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Speaker 2: you got Alec Pierce banged up. If that deep game

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Speaker 2: is away from them a little bit. He obviously has

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Speaker 2: tons of out route targets, but I think this is

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Speaker 2: going to be Tangil Jones getting blitz and moving up

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Speaker 2: a little bit. More he likes to run. This is

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00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:06,760
Speaker 2: a good spot twenty two point five rushing yards over

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Speaker 2: for Daniel Jones for me, all.

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Speaker 1: Right, pat Sometimes you can take advantage of injuries as well,

376
00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:13,600
Speaker 1: and Ted McMillan has been a little banged up here.

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Speaker 1: We're waiting for the final practice reports on Friday, but

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Speaker 1: in the meantime, sixtey nine and a half is the

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Speaker 1: receiving yard number. That does seem pretty high. What are

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Speaker 1: your thoughts?

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Speaker 2: Pretty nice?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, he is banged up, and you know, as good

383
00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:30,400
Speaker 3: as tet Roe McMillan has been. In his first three

384
00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:35,359
Speaker 3: NFL games, he has only cleared this number once. And

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Speaker 3: I think the matchup is sort of the key to

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Speaker 3: this one. Joe McMillan is going against the Patriots who

387
00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:45,520
Speaker 3: are getting cornerback Christian Gonzales back from a hamstring injury.

388
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Speaker 3: And Gonzalez is one of the better cover men in

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Speaker 3: the league, so he's going to get a lot of

390
00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:55,120
Speaker 3: FaceTime with tet Roe McMillan on Sunday. And last year,

391
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Speaker 3: Christian Gonzalez only allowed forty six catches and four hundred

392
00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:01,399
Speaker 3: and ninety nine receiving yards on throws into his coverage.

393
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Speaker 3: The entire season. So for Tenero McMillan to surpass this

394
00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:09,159
Speaker 3: and get seventy or more receiving yards, he's gonna have

395
00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:12,399
Speaker 3: to be a really good cornerback and it's kind of

396
00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:14,360
Speaker 3: a tall order. I don't think he gets there.

397
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Speaker 1: Right, So Ted McMillan possibly falling a little short this week.

398
00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:22,760
Speaker 1: Welsh talked earlier about the disappointing last week cowboy performance

399
00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:25,879
Speaker 1: there from Pickens, a little bit under expectations, the Ceedee

400
00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:27,359
Speaker 1: Lamb injury, and a lot of people I think are

401
00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:29,439
Speaker 1: going to run to the George Pickens props. But I

402
00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:32,480
Speaker 1: like the Jalen Tolbert stuff myself, and it looks like

403
00:18:32,560 --> 00:18:33,399
Speaker 1: you do as well.

404
00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:36,000
Speaker 2: Yes, I am in. This is my favorite bet of

405
00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:38,520
Speaker 2: the week. It's getting a little bit stinky because we're

406
00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:43,520
Speaker 2: getting down to those names. But Jalen Tolbert's reception yard prop,

407
00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:45,760
Speaker 2: I really I can get in on all of it.

408
00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:50,200
Speaker 2: But the receptions are two point five over receptions two

409
00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:53,480
Speaker 2: point five over decent juice on here. When Lamb went down,

410
00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:56,360
Speaker 2: we ended up seeing Jalen Tolbert run eighty seven percent

411
00:18:56,440 --> 00:18:59,040
Speaker 2: of routes for this team. Huge. That was in Week three.

412
00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:02,280
Speaker 2: While in the same game he received a just under

413
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Speaker 2: twenty percent first read percentage, which is pretty impressive. I mean,

414
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Speaker 2: we look at you know, Turpin and Pickens in there,

415
00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:10,280
Speaker 2: but he ended up running some of those out routes

416
00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:12,640
Speaker 2: and he ended up getting targets. He had six targets

417
00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:15,600
Speaker 2: last week. He's had ten over the last two. We

418
00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:21,160
Speaker 2: need three catches with absolutely no lamb. Ferguson's target rate

419
00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:23,760
Speaker 2: was so ridiculous they don't think they're gonna look to

420
00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:27,640
Speaker 2: repeat that. But Tolbert is a guy where it's really

421
00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:30,560
Speaker 2: funny how Pickens is so good in these big, long

422
00:19:30,640 --> 00:19:32,520
Speaker 2: dal you throw it with two men on him, you

423
00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:34,760
Speaker 2: throw it thirty yards down the line. He does this

424
00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:37,240
Speaker 2: big juggling, one handed catch. But you throw him a

425
00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:40,119
Speaker 2: ten yard out and he's got two feet of separation

426
00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:42,160
Speaker 2: and it bobbles off his hands. I think the team

427
00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:44,320
Speaker 2: knows this. He's just not good in those spots. But

428
00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:47,359
Speaker 2: that is something that Tolbert is. Pickens is going to

429
00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:49,040
Speaker 2: have more focal points. I think you're going to be

430
00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:53,360
Speaker 2: looking at Ferguson. It leads opportunities for Turpin and for Tolbert.

431
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Speaker 2: The eighty seven percent route run I think really stood

432
00:19:56,640 --> 00:19:58,280
Speaker 2: out to me that he is going to be out there.

433
00:19:58,359 --> 00:19:59,919
Speaker 2: This is a low total for a team that's going

434
00:19:59,920 --> 00:20:01,960
Speaker 2: to continuously going to need to pass. So this is

435
00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:04,080
Speaker 2: my favorite bet of the week. Two point five over

436
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:05,600
Speaker 2: receptions for Tolbert.

437
00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:08,320
Speaker 1: All Right, Pat, let's close things up here in the

438
00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:11,720
Speaker 1: prop department with Keenan Allen, who's been terrific to start

439
00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:13,520
Speaker 1: the year. It seems like he hasn't missed a beat

440
00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:15,920
Speaker 1: with Justin Herbert, and they get the Giants this week,

441
00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:16,919
Speaker 1: so let's talk about it.

442
00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:19,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I love that Tolbert. But by the way,

443
00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:23,280
Speaker 3: I'm going to tail Welsh on that one likewise. So Yeah,

444
00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:28,159
Speaker 3: any Keenan Allen yardage over you can get this week,

445
00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:30,239
Speaker 3: I think is a pretty good bet. I've seen it

446
00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:32,840
Speaker 3: at like forty five and a half. I like that,

447
00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:36,399
Speaker 3: But I also like dialing it up to sixty or

448
00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:40,399
Speaker 3: more receiving yards at plus one point fifty one because

449
00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:42,280
Speaker 3: I think Keenan Allen is going to have a real

450
00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:45,440
Speaker 3: good day against the Giants this week. Like this guy

451
00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:48,639
Speaker 3: is just ageless thirty three and he is playing like

452
00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:52,439
Speaker 3: he's twenty five. Keenan Allen has nineteen catches for one

453
00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:55,000
Speaker 3: hundred and ninety four yards and three touchdowns on a

454
00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:57,640
Speaker 3: team high twenty eight targets. He is out targeting Lad

455
00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:01,480
Speaker 3: McConkie and Quinton Johnston. Allen has had at least sixty

456
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:06,200
Speaker 3: one receiving yards in every game and twenty five percent

457
00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:09,480
Speaker 3: target chair one point nine to eight yards per route run.

458
00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:11,760
Speaker 3: It's all looked pretty good. He's up against the Giants

459
00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:15,000
Speaker 3: defense that's allowed the second most receiving yards to wide receivers.

460
00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:18,280
Speaker 3: The Giants have been especially weak against slot receivers. I

461
00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:21,920
Speaker 3: think it's probably going to be Cordale flat on Keenan

462
00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:24,080
Speaker 3: Allen for much of this game, and that is a

463
00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:25,880
Speaker 3: mismatch in Allen's favor.

464
00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:29,040
Speaker 1: Very much so. More on Keenan Allen later in this show,

465
00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:31,520
Speaker 1: as we look to the Touchdown Score Report. If you're

466
00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:34,520
Speaker 1: looking for a edge when you're betting touchdowns, our Touchdown

467
00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:37,280
Speaker 1: score Report over at Betting Pros compares anytime touchdown stats

468
00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:40,440
Speaker 1: to prop bet odds and projections to help you identify

469
00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:43,840
Speaker 1: the very best anytime touchdown bets this week. So how

470
00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:45,560
Speaker 1: do you find it? You go to bettingpros dot com

471
00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:47,880
Speaker 1: slash touchdown. That's how you do it, and check out

472
00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:51,159
Speaker 1: the Touchdown Score Report today. Speaking of touchdowns for me?

473
00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:53,960
Speaker 1: How about Keenan Allen plus one fifty five, Yes, please

474
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:57,360
Speaker 1: to score against the Giants. All he does is catch touchdowns.

475
00:21:57,400 --> 00:21:59,040
Speaker 1: It's grea because Keenan Allen doesn't have to be the

476
00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 1: guy anymore. You got Lad mcconkee, you've got QJ, and

477
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,639
Speaker 1: now you've got Keaton Allen just hanging out there in

478
00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 1: the end zone. It's just hard to guard everybody. He

479
00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:09,440
Speaker 1: just can't do it. And then Giants have a hard

480
00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:12,560
Speaker 1: time guarding anybody right now. Cortland Sutton's my other big

481
00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:15,399
Speaker 1: one two against the Cincinnati Bengals plus one thirty. I

482
00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:18,439
Speaker 1: think Cortland Sutton gets on track this week. Here for

483
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:20,800
Speaker 1: Denver Pat, how about for you? Who are your touchdown

484
00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:21,680
Speaker 1: calls for Week four?

485
00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,840
Speaker 3: I like AJ Brown at plus one point eighty. Maybe

486
00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:29,040
Speaker 3: after he had so much success against the Rams last week,

487
00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:33,200
Speaker 3: all in the second half, maybe the Eagles aren't gonna

488
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 3: wait this week to start throwing to AJ Brown until

489
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:38,399
Speaker 3: they were well behind in the game. And if so, like,

490
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:41,439
Speaker 3: I mean, this guy's just a human mismatch for people.

491
00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:43,480
Speaker 3: So I like those odds. I think it's a really

492
00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 3: good price for an AJ Brown touchdown. And then Hunter

493
00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:50,240
Speaker 3: Henry at plus one ninety. You know, quietly, I know

494
00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:53,800
Speaker 3: in fantasy he's leading all tight ends in fantasy scoring,

495
00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:57,640
Speaker 3: like he is Drake May's favorite target right now. Those

496
00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:00,720
Speaker 3: two have excellent chemistry, and Henry has a really good

497
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:04,800
Speaker 3: matchup against a Carolina Panthers defense that really gave it

498
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:08,159
Speaker 3: up to tight ends last year. I believe they allowed

499
00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 3: either the most or second most receiving yards to tight ends,

500
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,200
Speaker 3: and like this year, tight ends are continuing to smack

501
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:16,639
Speaker 3: around the Carolina Panthers. So Hunter Henry gets into the

502
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:17,960
Speaker 3: end zone plus one ninety.

503
00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:21,400
Speaker 1: All right, Well, give me some touchdowns for Week four?

504
00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:22,359
Speaker 1: Who is on the docket.

505
00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:23,680
Speaker 2: I like some of yours, By the way, I just

506
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:25,359
Speaker 2: want to point out your Sutton one was one I

507
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:28,840
Speaker 2: almost picked Keenan. I actually think lad is in a

508
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:31,159
Speaker 2: good spot as well for them, and I love the

509
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:33,480
Speaker 2: Hunter Henry one. That was one I almost took. I

510
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:35,480
Speaker 2: did stick with some tight ends, though. We're gonna go

511
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:38,199
Speaker 2: with a double tight end set, both at least two

512
00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:40,119
Speaker 2: to one on the money. First, we're gonna start with

513
00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:43,639
Speaker 2: Pat's boy, Tucker Kraft. This matchup this week for the

514
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:46,359
Speaker 2: Packers going up against the Cowboys secondary, which is just,

515
00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:48,560
Speaker 2: I don't know, one of the worst that we've seen.

516
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:52,080
Speaker 2: They haven't exactly gotten blown out the gates by tight ends,

517
00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:54,600
Speaker 2: but they also haven't gone up against a team that

518
00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 2: uses a tight end like the Packers do with Tucker Craft.

519
00:23:57,320 --> 00:24:00,439
Speaker 2: They gave up a touchdown last week to believe it

520
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:03,199
Speaker 2: was it was a Cole comet, and this week Tuckerkraft

521
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,639
Speaker 2: against that secondary is going to get a touchdown. That

522
00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:07,399
Speaker 2: is two to one. And then I'm also going to

523
00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:09,120
Speaker 2: go back to the well. I talked a lot last

524
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:12,640
Speaker 2: week about Carson Wentz and his tight end percentage, which,

525
00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:14,520
Speaker 2: by the way, let's talk about that. I know it

526
00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:17,919
Speaker 2: was twenty eighteen or twenty eighteen to twenty twenty stats

527
00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:20,560
Speaker 2: that people were like, huh, well, guess what the quarterback

528
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:22,960
Speaker 2: that targets tight ends the most targeted tight ends again,

529
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:24,879
Speaker 2: and he threw it a touchdown to Oliver and then

530
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:27,919
Speaker 2: he started throwing a bunch of passes TJ. Howkinson. So

531
00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:30,240
Speaker 2: how about plus two to eighty this week for Hawk

532
00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:33,359
Speaker 2: to score a touchdown. I'm jumping in on that one.

533
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:36,639
Speaker 2: Steelers have already given up to three touchdowns to tight ends,

534
00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 2: and they gave up two last week. Wins loves his touchdowns.

535
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:42,879
Speaker 2: No Oliver all Hawk almost three to one. That's my

536
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:43,920
Speaker 2: touchdown calls?

537
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:46,920
Speaker 1: All right, what are your touchdown calls? Drop your comments

538
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:50,320
Speaker 1: below here in the YouTube channel, don't forget. Also subscribe

539
00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:53,359
Speaker 1: to hard Rock Bed download the app. At your first

540
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:55,240
Speaker 1: five bucks you win, you get one hundred and fifty

541
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:57,280
Speaker 1: in bonus bets and your winnings. You could throw it

542
00:24:57,320 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 1: on some of these touchdowns we're calling right here, and

543
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 1: of course ribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel. Drop

544
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:04,639
Speaker 1: your comments below. We love having you here on the channel,

545
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:06,119
Speaker 1: hanging out with us. We're trying to get to one

546
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:08,560
Speaker 1: hundred thousand this season. We can do it with your help.

547
00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:10,480
Speaker 1: That'll do it for us. But the story of the

548
00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 1: game goes on for the Welsh and Pat Fitzmorris as

549
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:16,439
Speaker 1: the fill in today. Great job at We'll see you

550
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 1: next time. Kids. Enjoy week four.

551
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:21,960
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

552
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:24,359
Speaker 4: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

553
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Speaker 4: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

554
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:30,720
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555
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556
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Speaker 4: channel at YouTube dot com. Slash Betting Pros