1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,920 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Brian Curtis 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:16,639 Speaker 2: along with Doug Krisner. Join us each day for the 4 00:00:16,680 --> 00:00:20,080 Speaker 2: stories making news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific. 5 00:00:20,280 --> 00:00:22,720 Speaker 2: You can subscribe to the show anywhere you get your 6 00:00:22,720 --> 00:00:26,680 Speaker 2: podcasts and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and 7 00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business app. 8 00:00:28,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 3: Later this year, Apple will deliver some of its new 9 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:36,160 Speaker 3: AI features using data centers engineered with Apple's in house 10 00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 3: micro processors. This is part of a sweeping plan to 11 00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 3: infuse Apple devices with AI capabilities, Sources telling Bloomberg, the 12 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:48,600 Speaker 3: company will place its high end M two Ultra chips 13 00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:52,680 Speaker 3: in its cloud computing services. Those chips debuted last year 14 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:57,160 Speaker 3: as part of the MacPro and Mac Studio computers. Simple 15 00:00:57,200 --> 00:01:01,320 Speaker 3: AI TESK will be processed directly on on Apples, computers 16 00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:04,600 Speaker 3: and mobile devices. Apple is expecting to lay out an 17 00:01:04,640 --> 00:01:09,720 Speaker 3: ambitious AI strategy at the Worldwide Developers Conference that will 18 00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:11,520 Speaker 3: happen on June tenth. 19 00:01:11,600 --> 00:01:14,800 Speaker 2: Brian, all right, let's bring in Mark German for a 20 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:19,480 Speaker 2: closer look at this story. Bloomberg Chief Global Technology correspondent 21 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:23,440 Speaker 2: and one of the experts on Apple mark. So this 22 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:28,920 Speaker 2: is in data centers. How does this actually work and 23 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:31,040 Speaker 2: compare with AI inference? 24 00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:36,960 Speaker 4: Very good question. So Apple's developing multiple large language models. 25 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 4: Some of the lms are going to run on the 26 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:42,039 Speaker 4: devices themselves, so in the iPhone and the iPad, in 27 00:01:42,080 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 4: the Mac, in the Apple Watch. Another set of the 28 00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:47,400 Speaker 4: lms that Apple's developed are going to run on the 29 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:50,840 Speaker 4: cloud itself. Why is that important, Well, some of these 30 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:55,160 Speaker 4: large models can't actually fit or run on the processors 31 00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:57,920 Speaker 4: in the phone. You need more space, you need more 32 00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:01,200 Speaker 4: advanced processing power, go to the cloud. And so what 33 00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:03,800 Speaker 4: Apple's done is they outfitted some of their data centers 34 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:07,120 Speaker 4: with M two Ultras, that's currently their highest end processors 35 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:11,080 Speaker 4: with the biggest AI capabilities and processing horsepower. And so 36 00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:14,560 Speaker 4: the more advanced features like summarizing a lot of text, 37 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:17,680 Speaker 4: image and text generation, those are going to rely on 38 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:21,240 Speaker 4: the data centers, whereas simpler tasks are going to involve 39 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:23,960 Speaker 4: running directly on the phone themselves. 40 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:26,840 Speaker 3: So in terms of the chip, I'm going to imagine 41 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:30,799 Speaker 3: that the chip is being manufactured by TSMC, is Apple 42 00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:34,000 Speaker 3: partnering with another firm. In terms of the construction of 43 00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:36,040 Speaker 3: the actual server itself. 44 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:39,520 Speaker 5: Well, these chips, the M two Ultras, These shifts actually 45 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:41,920 Speaker 5: last June, so these have been on the marketplace for 46 00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:45,040 Speaker 5: a while. And yeah, as you know, TSMC is the 47 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:50,400 Speaker 5: exclusive manufacturing manufacturing partner for Apple's chips at this point, right, 48 00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:53,520 Speaker 5: so those are TSMC made. I don't expect this to 49 00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:56,280 Speaker 5: be a big boon to TSMC. This is part of 50 00:02:56,320 --> 00:03:00,160 Speaker 5: the normal cadence of manufacturing for these chips. Anyways, there's 51 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 5: a new chip that's the M four that Apple announced 52 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:05,400 Speaker 5: in the iPad pro earlier this week. A version of 53 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:07,560 Speaker 5: that next year. Later next year will come to the 54 00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:11,120 Speaker 5: data centers for more increases in processing power as they 55 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:13,440 Speaker 5: expand the cloud performance. 56 00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:16,239 Speaker 2: Here, perhaps we can talk a little bit more about 57 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:19,079 Speaker 2: these AI type of chips. But I also wanted to 58 00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:23,880 Speaker 2: get to a comment by the ARM CEO, Renee Haas 59 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 2: he talked about how geopolitics has hurt Apple in China 60 00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:30,600 Speaker 2: and that local brands are getting featured there and we 61 00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:33,160 Speaker 2: understand that, but he also said that they're not going 62 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:37,880 Speaker 2: to seed that ground. And I'm wondering how that translates 63 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:41,600 Speaker 2: and what it translates into. Does that mean that Apple 64 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:44,400 Speaker 2: might get more aggressive on pricing in China? 65 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:47,840 Speaker 4: Well to that end, here's the good news for Apple 66 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:50,800 Speaker 4: and China. They've been losing some steam there, they've been 67 00:03:50,840 --> 00:03:54,600 Speaker 4: losing some share there, but they've done nothing to stop 68 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:58,280 Speaker 4: the bleeding. They haven't pulled any lever available to them 69 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 4: to try to turn things around there, right, And so 70 00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 4: the good news is it's very likely as they start 71 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 4: pulling those levers, you're going to start seeing a turnaround. Pricing, 72 00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 4: lower end devices, colors, promotions, new financing plans, particular to 73 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:16,839 Speaker 4: the Chinese market, those are all things you can see 74 00:04:16,880 --> 00:04:19,600 Speaker 4: Apple try to engage with over the coming months. 75 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:21,840 Speaker 3: So, Mark, if we circle back and talk a little 76 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:25,400 Speaker 3: bit about Apple's approach to artificial intelligence. We know that Microsoft, 77 00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:27,920 Speaker 3: for example, has been working with open Ai. In fact, 78 00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:31,039 Speaker 3: they have a big position in the company. And then 79 00:04:31,640 --> 00:04:36,080 Speaker 3: down the road in Silicon Valley you've got Google, Alphabet 80 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:41,320 Speaker 3: really in partnership with Anthropic along with Amazon. Is Apple 81 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:45,680 Speaker 3: choosing to partner with anybody when it comes to artificial intelligence. 82 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:50,320 Speaker 4: So the models that I described, the cloud model as 83 00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:53,200 Speaker 4: well as the in house model, those are developed internally 84 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:57,640 Speaker 4: at Apple, and so those are Apple models. However, Apple 85 00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:01,560 Speaker 4: has not developed its own gender Todai chatbot things like 86 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:06,279 Speaker 4: Google Gemini, things like open AI's chat GPT. That's actually 87 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:09,080 Speaker 4: where Gemini from Google and open i come into play. 88 00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:12,599 Speaker 4: Apple is in talks with both of those companies to 89 00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:16,039 Speaker 4: partner with them to implement their chatbots zeep into the 90 00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:18,520 Speaker 4: new version of iOS and the new iPhones coming in 91 00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:22,599 Speaker 4: the fall in September, I expect Apple to ultimately partner 92 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:26,960 Speaker 4: with open Ai. Talks have advanced, they've intensified. I've reported 93 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:29,880 Speaker 4: a couple of weeks ago, and at this point it 94 00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 4: seems pretty likely that there's going to be a deal 95 00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:35,760 Speaker 4: with open Ai reached by June when this announcement is expected. 96 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:39,120 Speaker 4: And it's also possible becomes you an agreement with Google 97 00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:39,839 Speaker 4: at some point too. 98 00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:43,640 Speaker 2: And I also wanted to ask you about this ad 99 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:46,520 Speaker 2: that they now have that Apple now has said we'll 100 00:05:46,560 --> 00:05:51,040 Speaker 2: not run on television about the iPad and the destruction 101 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:56,119 Speaker 2: of a lot of creative tools let's say the human 102 00:05:56,160 --> 00:06:00,600 Speaker 2: condition has been using for thousands of years into a iPad. 103 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:04,960 Speaker 2: Just your thoughts about the thinking behind that and perhaps 104 00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:06,520 Speaker 2: where and how it went wrong. 105 00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:10,880 Speaker 4: I see exactly what Apple was trying to do, but 106 00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:14,040 Speaker 4: here's a very simplistic perspective. They are trying to show 107 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:17,080 Speaker 4: that the iPad is super thin, and they're using a 108 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:20,520 Speaker 4: you know, an industrial press machine to squeeze in all 109 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:24,800 Speaker 4: the items that are in a that people can do 110 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:27,280 Speaker 4: on the iPad, the physical items, but squeeze it into 111 00:06:27,360 --> 00:06:29,520 Speaker 4: that really thin five millimeter device. So that's what they 112 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:33,800 Speaker 4: tried to do. How it appeared Apple's destroying everything that 113 00:06:33,960 --> 00:06:37,160 Speaker 4: people love from the real world in favor of using 114 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:41,440 Speaker 4: the iPad. Not a great look. Obviously they missed the mark. 115 00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:44,680 Speaker 4: If they have come to that conclusion beforehand, maybe they 116 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:47,040 Speaker 4: wouldn't have done it this way. I think it was 117 00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:50,080 Speaker 4: a ridiculous move that this ad even made it to market. 118 00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:53,440 Speaker 4: But I guess this is like the third apology in 119 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:56,360 Speaker 4: the history of Apple. So we'll take this one until 120 00:06:56,360 --> 00:06:58,280 Speaker 4: the next start, think fifteen years from now. 121 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:01,000 Speaker 3: So give us your assessment of the new iPad. I mean, 122 00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:04,200 Speaker 3: it's been a while since they've updated this product line. 123 00:07:04,240 --> 00:07:05,359 Speaker 3: I mean, what's your take. 124 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:09,520 Speaker 4: It's a spec bump. It looks better, it's cooler, it 125 00:07:09,560 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 4: doesn't do anything new, it doesn't change the iPad story. 126 00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 4: They still need to upgrade the software on this thing 127 00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:18,720 Speaker 4: to make it more like a macroplacement or a laptop. 128 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:22,520 Speaker 4: Success or it doesn't do anything differently than the last iPad, 129 00:07:22,600 --> 00:07:25,400 Speaker 4: the iPad before that, or the ten models before that. 130 00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 4: So the hardware is awesome, but the hardware on the 131 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:30,880 Speaker 4: iPad has always been awesome. The problem's always been the software. 132 00:07:31,280 --> 00:07:34,040 Speaker 4: This doesn't change that one bit. 133 00:07:34,600 --> 00:07:38,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, so the iPad was positioned between the phone and 134 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:40,720 Speaker 2: the laptop, but a lot closer to the phone than 135 00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:43,560 Speaker 2: the phone got bigger. So, as I've read from a 136 00:07:43,560 --> 00:07:45,640 Speaker 2: lot of the stuff that you've written, you know this 137 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:48,960 Speaker 2: is an effort going in the other direction. How much 138 00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:52,000 Speaker 2: further does it need to go to get closer to 139 00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:57,200 Speaker 2: a you know, to a laptop without actually trying to 140 00:07:57,240 --> 00:07:57,720 Speaker 2: become one. 141 00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:00,920 Speaker 4: Well, I'll answer it this way. It needs to become 142 00:08:00,960 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 4: a laptop. They need to go all the way or 143 00:08:03,720 --> 00:08:04,320 Speaker 4: this device. 144 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:06,040 Speaker 2: And why do you need a laptop? Then if you've 145 00:08:06,120 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 2: if you've got an iPad that is a laptop. 146 00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:13,280 Speaker 4: Well, the Mac line isn't doing so hot, the iPad 147 00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 4: line is not doing so hot. You should create, if 148 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 4: you're Apple, the best version of the iPad that you 149 00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:21,120 Speaker 4: can make, and they're just holding that product back. So 150 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:23,880 Speaker 4: what if it kills the laptop? Something's going to kill 151 00:08:23,880 --> 00:08:25,920 Speaker 4: the laptop? One day it might as well be Apple. 152 00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:28,840 Speaker 4: But right now they're just kind of screwing around and 153 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:32,560 Speaker 4: creating the Twitter device. They've moved way past that. The 154 00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:35,199 Speaker 4: market has moved way past that. It's time to kill 155 00:08:35,240 --> 00:08:38,600 Speaker 4: the laptop or make this a laptop replacement, make the 156 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:39,640 Speaker 4: laptops even better. 157 00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:43,840 Speaker 2: German tells it like it is, Mark, thank you for 158 00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:48,120 Speaker 2: joining us. Some very interesting comments there, Mark German, Bloomberg, 159 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:58,520 Speaker 2: Chief Global Technology Correspondent. The Security is In Exchange Commission 160 00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 2: is launching a probe into claims made by Boeing about 161 00:09:01,960 --> 00:09:06,079 Speaker 2: its own safety practices. This after a January accident aboard 162 00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:09,439 Speaker 2: one of the seven thirty seven Max nine planes. Joining 163 00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:14,120 Speaker 2: us now is Julie Johnson, Bloomberg, Senior Aerospace reporter. So 164 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:17,520 Speaker 2: what is it that the SEC is particularly concerned about 165 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:21,920 Speaker 2: that perhaps these comments about the safety record were inaccurate 166 00:09:22,040 --> 00:09:22,760 Speaker 2: or went too far. 167 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:26,839 Speaker 1: Well, that's what we'll find out or or not. We'd 168 00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:28,920 Speaker 1: love to know a little bit more about what they're 169 00:09:29,360 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 1: what they're looking into, and whether whether the company made 170 00:09:37,600 --> 00:09:42,079 Speaker 1: maybe made assurances to investors. I mean, they've been stressing 171 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 1: safety publicly ever since the twenty nineteen you know, accidents 172 00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:53,679 Speaker 1: and global grounding. So it's you know, I think the 173 00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:58,160 Speaker 1: regulator regulators will want to know whether Boeing may be 174 00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:01,680 Speaker 1: over sold what was going on in its own factories, 175 00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:04,840 Speaker 1: but the actual details we don't have. 176 00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:08,360 Speaker 3: So this is the panel that brew off that Max nine, 177 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:11,319 Speaker 3: the Alaska Airlines flight AM I right about that, and 178 00:10:11,760 --> 00:10:14,880 Speaker 3: since that time, there have been a lot of other 179 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:18,680 Speaker 3: issues that the company has had to address regarding things 180 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:20,880 Speaker 3: like safety and design and manufacturing. 181 00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:26,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, that that January incident really sort of precipitated this 182 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:31,400 Speaker 1: whole crisis, and so Boeing's being investigated on a number 183 00:10:31,440 --> 00:10:36,400 Speaker 1: of fund fronts. You've got the FAA and NTSB, you know, 184 00:10:36,480 --> 00:10:40,960 Speaker 1: looking into what happened with that accident, what went wrong 185 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:44,560 Speaker 1: within Boeing's own factories. And then the FAA has come 186 00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:49,920 Speaker 1: down really hard on on Boeing over the last few 187 00:10:49,960 --> 00:10:54,760 Speaker 1: months and has its auditors, you know, in Boeing's factories 188 00:10:54,840 --> 00:11:00,800 Speaker 1: and looking very closely at quality controls and safety and 189 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:04,719 Speaker 1: Boeing's Boeing's got a critical report coming up on that. 190 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:08,960 Speaker 1: And then there's a criminal investigation launched by the Justice 191 00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:13,800 Speaker 1: Department and the grand jury in Seattle. So it's it's 192 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:15,120 Speaker 1: really been something. 193 00:11:14,800 --> 00:11:18,079 Speaker 2: Else for Boeing Julie. Is there any suggestion of a 194 00:11:18,120 --> 00:11:19,480 Speaker 2: whistleblower on this? 195 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:23,439 Speaker 1: I don't think so. I think this is more looking 196 00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:29,000 Speaker 1: at whether the company's private practices uh were in line 197 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:32,640 Speaker 1: with what it was saying publicly around what was going 198 00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:36,640 Speaker 1: on in its factory. And just as a reminder with 199 00:11:36,760 --> 00:11:42,240 Speaker 1: the SEC, we don't know of any allegations of wrongdoing here. 200 00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:47,520 Speaker 1: And these enforced enforcement actions don't you know, don't always 201 00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:54,840 Speaker 1: flow from investigations, but quite often the agency can levy 202 00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:58,559 Speaker 1: finds against the company or the corporate officers. 203 00:11:58,920 --> 00:12:01,320 Speaker 3: So it's not just going from might understand. I mean 204 00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:05,319 Speaker 3: Spirit Arrow Systems, which is the company that manu factiously 205 00:12:05,760 --> 00:12:09,520 Speaker 3: the wing assembly the fuselage. That company also has some exposure. 206 00:12:09,559 --> 00:12:11,920 Speaker 3: But are they going to be swept up in this 207 00:12:12,840 --> 00:12:13,840 Speaker 3: SEC probe? 208 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:15,520 Speaker 2: Do you think yes? 209 00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:19,360 Speaker 1: Actually, one of the interesting things is that we found 210 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:22,760 Speaker 1: out about this in part because Spirit had a very 211 00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:28,160 Speaker 1: detailed explanation of the various probes and subpoenas that it's 212 00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:33,880 Speaker 1: facing in a quarterly financial statement that it made on Tuesday, 213 00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:39,280 Speaker 1: and they disclosed that the SEC had subpoened them, you know, 214 00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:43,600 Speaker 1: related to the seven thirty seven MAX issues in the 215 00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:47,560 Speaker 1: Alaska incident. They didn't provide a whole lot of details, 216 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:50,920 Speaker 1: but it was pretty clear the agency was looking hard 217 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:54,960 Speaker 1: at Spirit and they're so closely tied to Boeing on 218 00:12:55,040 --> 00:12:59,400 Speaker 1: this that you know that it made sense that Boeing 219 00:12:59,520 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 1: was also, you know, a target. 220 00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:06,960 Speaker 2: Julie, do we have any new information about exactly what's 221 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:10,920 Speaker 2: happening with the chief executive officer position at Going Oh. 222 00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:14,240 Speaker 1: I'd love to know what's going on there. The board 223 00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:19,800 Speaker 1: is searching for, you know, a new CEO, and they 224 00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:23,080 Speaker 1: launched that that search back in March, and it's being 225 00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:28,160 Speaker 1: led by the chairman, Steve Mallenkopf and Dennis or sorry, 226 00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:29,160 Speaker 1: Tennis Ballenberg is. 227 00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:29,880 Speaker 4: The former CEO. 228 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:34,240 Speaker 1: Dave Yeah, Dave Calhoun, the current CEO is is staying 229 00:13:34,240 --> 00:13:37,600 Speaker 1: on until a successor is found. And the board's sort 230 00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:40,760 Speaker 1: of given itself a lot of leeway with that search 231 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:45,520 Speaker 1: and by saying, you know that Calhoun will be around 232 00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:49,080 Speaker 1: through the end of the year, but you get the 233 00:13:49,120 --> 00:13:52,560 Speaker 1: sense that they would like to get this done sooner 234 00:13:52,679 --> 00:13:55,920 Speaker 1: rather than later, just because right now it's it's a 235 00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:59,960 Speaker 1: bad time to be you know, I'm in transition to your. 236 00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:02,120 Speaker 3: Leader, and it's a bad time for the airlines that 237 00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:04,160 Speaker 3: have been waiting for new aircraft. I mean, that's the 238 00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:06,880 Speaker 3: other part of the story, that production has come to 239 00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:11,199 Speaker 3: a virtual standstill and you have many airlines that have 240 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:13,480 Speaker 3: been unable to take delivery of new aircraft. 241 00:14:14,200 --> 00:14:19,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's so true. It's it really has become a 242 00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:22,480 Speaker 1: huge sort of pressure point for the whole industry. And 243 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:26,520 Speaker 1: you've seen a lot of frustration voiced by the US 244 00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:31,280 Speaker 1: carriers as well. And you know, I mean, Boeing's got 245 00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:34,720 Speaker 1: its own problems, but everybody's struggling. I mean, Airbus is 246 00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:39,000 Speaker 1: doing better, but they're not They're not hitting delivery targets either. 247 00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:43,200 Speaker 1: So it's just a bad time for an airline, you 248 00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:45,520 Speaker 1: know that that's out there looking for planes. 249 00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:48,720 Speaker 2: I'm kind of curious something that you alluded to moments ago, 250 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:51,480 Speaker 2: but I'd like to hear more on it about the 251 00:14:51,560 --> 00:14:56,359 Speaker 2: coordination and or differences between the SEC and the FAA 252 00:14:56,680 --> 00:14:57,640 Speaker 2: when it comes to Boeing. 253 00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:03,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a that's a really great question. I wish 254 00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:06,560 Speaker 1: I knew what was going on behind the scenes, but 255 00:15:08,400 --> 00:15:11,239 Speaker 1: you know, because sometimes we just we get our information 256 00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:13,640 Speaker 1: sort of bit by bit and we don't have the 257 00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:19,120 Speaker 1: entire picture. But you know, the FAA got sort of 258 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:22,880 Speaker 1: a black eye for certifying the seven thirty seven max 259 00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:27,640 Speaker 1: and standing by Boeing back in twenty nineteen when these 260 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:32,480 Speaker 1: tragedies happened and some of Boeing's shortcomings were made public. 261 00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:36,640 Speaker 1: And so they've been this time around. They've just been very, 262 00:15:36,760 --> 00:15:40,680 Speaker 1: very diligent. And I think that the SEC action is 263 00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:43,320 Speaker 1: something you would expect. And it's an election year in 264 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:46,160 Speaker 1: the US, by the way, so everybody's going to want to, 265 00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:50,800 Speaker 1: you know, stay on top of this. 266 00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:53,000 Speaker 3: This situation one of the interesting things and maybe you 267 00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:55,080 Speaker 3: can weigh in very quickly on this, Julie. One of 268 00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:58,080 Speaker 3: the very interesting things about this industry, and I'm talking 269 00:15:58,120 --> 00:16:01,680 Speaker 3: about aerospace as a real rates to commercial aircraft, that 270 00:16:01,800 --> 00:16:05,680 Speaker 3: these manufacturers are almost self regulated. They are expected to 271 00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:09,520 Speaker 3: do a fair amount of the monitoring that you would 272 00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:12,960 Speaker 3: expect a federal agency would do during the manufacturing process. 273 00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:16,560 Speaker 1: Oh, I know, it's a real conundrum for everybody, and 274 00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:20,760 Speaker 1: the FAA is not a huge agency. This is part 275 00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:25,440 Speaker 1: of the problem. And to fully fund them to go back, 276 00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:27,640 Speaker 1: you know to the days when they were climbing all 277 00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:32,440 Speaker 1: over Boeing's factories would be you know, that takes a 278 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:35,960 Speaker 1: lot of money, and US Congress has been cutting, you know, 279 00:16:36,080 --> 00:16:40,960 Speaker 1: cutting their bundt for years. So yeah, it's that complicated, Yes, 280 00:16:41,200 --> 00:16:41,680 Speaker 1: sure does. 281 00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:44,720 Speaker 2: Julie, thank you so much for joining us. Julie Johnson 282 00:16:44,720 --> 00:16:54,400 Speaker 2: Bloomberg senior aerospace reporter. Joining us now in our studios 283 00:16:54,440 --> 00:16:57,320 Speaker 2: for a closer look at markets is Richard Harris, CEO 284 00:16:57,400 --> 00:17:01,360 Speaker 2: of Port Shelter Investment Management. Richard, thanks for coming into 285 00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:05,480 Speaker 2: the studios. So May has been a reasonably good period 286 00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:09,679 Speaker 2: here for both stocks and bonds, and we're waiting on 287 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:14,120 Speaker 2: confirmation of any kind of economic slowdown. And the reason 288 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:16,280 Speaker 2: why that's being seen as good news, obviously is it 289 00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:19,640 Speaker 2: might take a little pressure off the FED. But when 290 00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:21,880 Speaker 2: you get these like we had the claims that Doug 291 00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:26,000 Speaker 2: mentioned earlier, claims jumping a little bit, you wonder whether 292 00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:29,439 Speaker 2: or not this is a welcome cooling of the labor 293 00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:33,200 Speaker 2: market or some sort of unwelcome development, like a more 294 00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:34,360 Speaker 2: serious slowdown. 295 00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:36,959 Speaker 6: Your thoughts, well, well, the market seems to have the 296 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:39,320 Speaker 6: emphasis of the moment of eat, drink and be merry 297 00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:42,119 Speaker 6: for tomorrow. We die because we have good news and 298 00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:44,679 Speaker 6: the markets go up. We have slightly bad news and 299 00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:49,159 Speaker 6: the markets go down. I do think that unemployment is 300 00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:51,840 Speaker 6: going to be a very big indicator looking out forward, 301 00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:55,320 Speaker 6: because we are relying on consumer growth driving earnings in 302 00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:58,600 Speaker 6: the market. So yes, that's a very big narrative going through. 303 00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:01,439 Speaker 6: But I'm not sure that we're actually there yet. I 304 00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:04,000 Speaker 6: think that what we're seeing is that the market's quite 305 00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:07,120 Speaker 6: happy to take a rather bullish view, risk on view 306 00:18:08,080 --> 00:18:10,600 Speaker 6: all the way through, despite the fact that elements of 307 00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:13,040 Speaker 6: bad news. You know, as we were looking over ago, 308 00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:16,600 Speaker 6: the market has been relatively flat, despite the fact that 309 00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:19,800 Speaker 6: we've had issues with huties, issues in hor Moos, the 310 00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:22,720 Speaker 6: whole escapade in Gus, and the mark's been reatively flat. 311 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:24,439 Speaker 6: There are a lot of bad news out there, but 312 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:25,920 Speaker 6: the market doesn't really want to look at it. 313 00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:29,200 Speaker 3: I guess we can refer to this as the Dionician trade. 314 00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:31,679 Speaker 3: Is that fair? I mean, at least for the moment, 315 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:34,880 Speaker 3: right eat, drink and be merry and let it rip 316 00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:37,919 Speaker 3: to the upside for as long as it's able. And 317 00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:40,040 Speaker 3: I'm curious to get your take on what's happening in 318 00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:42,240 Speaker 3: China right now. So much of what we have focused 319 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:44,080 Speaker 3: on here is the FED and whether or not we're 320 00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:45,600 Speaker 3: going to get a rate cut before the end of 321 00:18:45,600 --> 00:18:48,200 Speaker 3: the year. The earnings to the quality of corporate earnings 322 00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:51,760 Speaker 3: here in the States have been okay, but there's been 323 00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:54,480 Speaker 3: a perhaps a bigger question over a lot of what's 324 00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:57,760 Speaker 3: happening in China. We were talking yesterday about the fact 325 00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:01,239 Speaker 3: that the market's been powering ahead. Maybe this is just 326 00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:05,840 Speaker 3: kind of the introduction of a lot of foreign capital 327 00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:08,720 Speaker 3: that's testing the water in China. How much do you 328 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:11,240 Speaker 3: think of what the move that we have seen, either 329 00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:13,760 Speaker 3: in Hong Kong or on the mainland is predicated on 330 00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:16,240 Speaker 3: the assumption that the quality of earnings is going to 331 00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:18,000 Speaker 3: begin to improve for Chinese firms. 332 00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:20,600 Speaker 6: Well, I think that's right, but I think a lot 333 00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:22,679 Speaker 6: of the move at the moment has been stress relief. 334 00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:25,000 Speaker 6: You know, we've had very weak period in China. We 335 00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:29,280 Speaker 6: had huge expectations both COVID and nothing really came of it. 336 00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:32,280 Speaker 6: The Hong Kong market has been especially bad, and the 337 00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:34,439 Speaker 6: Hong Kong market's probably likely to act as a warrant 338 00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:37,359 Speaker 6: on China, you know, worse when China does bet does worse, 339 00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:40,560 Speaker 6: and better when China does better. China has recently been 340 00:19:40,560 --> 00:19:43,399 Speaker 6: doing better, and one key reason for this, of course, 341 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:46,400 Speaker 6: is that the authorities need to keep that economy going. 342 00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:49,640 Speaker 6: They can't have it in the slough of despond for 343 00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:52,439 Speaker 6: a long period of time. So they have put a 344 00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:55,520 Speaker 6: lot of stimulus into the market pretty well at trillion dollars, 345 00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:57,480 Speaker 6: you know, which even for China's a reasonable amount of 346 00:19:57,480 --> 00:20:01,320 Speaker 6: money that's starting to come through. They use the big Bazuka. 347 00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:04,000 Speaker 6: But there are signs so they may actually be now 348 00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:06,879 Speaker 6: looking at restructuring the property market, maybe putting some of 349 00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:09,520 Speaker 6: the bad debt into a bad bank, put it aside, 350 00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:12,639 Speaker 6: making sure the apartments there already been bull to finish 351 00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:15,879 Speaker 6: these kind of things. If they can tackle that property market, 352 00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:18,719 Speaker 6: I think the sentiment in China will improve dramatically. 353 00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:22,199 Speaker 2: The tricky part, Richard, is that markets get out in 354 00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:25,520 Speaker 2: front of the actual data. That's why I don't think 355 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:30,240 Speaker 2: that really smart investors are always data dependent. For instance, 356 00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:33,719 Speaker 2: you look at the HANKSNG index. It has matched the 357 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:36,719 Speaker 2: S and P five hundred year today nine percent higher 358 00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:39,919 Speaker 2: for both. And we have not seen good earnings in 359 00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:43,159 Speaker 2: Hong Kong, we have not seen good earnings in China, 360 00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:46,840 Speaker 2: and yet the market has moved out. So we've talked 361 00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:50,880 Speaker 2: also about the queues. The ETF that looks at Nazaq 362 00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:54,159 Speaker 2: one hundred and it's actually flat for the past three months, 363 00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:57,080 Speaker 2: and yet there hasn't been bad earnings from companies like 364 00:20:57,200 --> 00:21:01,119 Speaker 2: Nvidia and Broadcom. So give me something where you're looking 365 00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:03,920 Speaker 2: out into the future that the data of the day 366 00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:04,760 Speaker 2: is not telling us. 367 00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:05,200 Speaker 1: Well. 368 00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:08,679 Speaker 6: I mean, you make an extremely good point, Brian, because 369 00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:10,560 Speaker 6: you know what we're talking here is the wisdom of 370 00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:13,600 Speaker 6: the crowd. We all know the market. The crowd seems 371 00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:16,239 Speaker 6: to sense that good news is coming through. You know, 372 00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:19,040 Speaker 6: why is it that markets are doing quite well? And 373 00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:21,960 Speaker 6: then the data comes through and say, oh, that's why 374 00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:25,320 Speaker 6: the market was doing well, you know, because the probabilities 375 00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:29,679 Speaker 6: of things happening become sharper towards as time goes on. 376 00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:33,000 Speaker 6: And I think that's what we're seeing with this forecasting element. 377 00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:35,680 Speaker 6: But doesn't it take you back to a big question 378 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:38,640 Speaker 6: about the FED? The FED is always data dependent. Well, 379 00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:41,720 Speaker 6: if you're waiting for data to come through, it's too late. 380 00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:44,680 Speaker 6: And maybe this is a problem with so many people 381 00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:46,920 Speaker 6: in the FED being economists. Maybe you should have more 382 00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:51,000 Speaker 6: bankers in the FED who actually spend their time looking 383 00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:52,120 Speaker 6: forward and not back. 384 00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:54,760 Speaker 3: So the FED has obviously been a key theme. Another 385 00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:59,280 Speaker 3: key theme has been artificial intelligence. We were talking about armholdings. 386 00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:02,200 Speaker 3: We were talking about Apple a short while ago, getting 387 00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:05,560 Speaker 3: ready to unveil some new AI features later in the year. 388 00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:10,000 Speaker 3: How are you feeling about AI as a trade still? 389 00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:13,080 Speaker 3: Does it have legs or would you be concerned maybe 390 00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:16,320 Speaker 3: that things are a little overextended in certain areas and 391 00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:19,800 Speaker 3: it would be prudent to remove a little bit of risk. 392 00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:23,439 Speaker 6: Well, the AI bubble reminds me a little bit of 393 00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:27,719 Speaker 6: the dot com bubble of the two thousands, but you know, 394 00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:29,880 Speaker 6: I don't think it's anything like that. I think it's 395 00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:32,680 Speaker 6: a mere shadow of that. And yes, we don't really 396 00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:35,040 Speaker 6: know what AI is going to do. We had maybe 397 00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:37,360 Speaker 6: a bit of a clear impact of what the Internet 398 00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:39,639 Speaker 6: was going to do, but we didn't really know. You know, 399 00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:41,919 Speaker 6: is it going to be the most fantastic thing. Is 400 00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,040 Speaker 6: it going to be a disaster. It'll be a bit 401 00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:46,240 Speaker 6: of both. And I think we still have to learn 402 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,080 Speaker 6: how AI is going to work, like the early days 403 00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:50,879 Speaker 6: of the automobile when a man walked in front of 404 00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:53,359 Speaker 6: it with the red flag. So we're still looking at that. 405 00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:56,119 Speaker 6: But I think that AI is clearly going to be important. 406 00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:59,359 Speaker 6: There are new things happening. I mean, Apple is particularly 407 00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:03,120 Speaker 6: interesting in that they're using their own chips for some 408 00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:06,400 Speaker 6: of this stuff. And everybody thought Apple was dead about 409 00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:08,399 Speaker 6: two weeks ago. You know, it was an exposure that 410 00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:12,400 Speaker 6: China the ecosystem slid down, iPad slaying down, and all 411 00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:14,920 Speaker 6: of a sudden, you have this new thing coming through 412 00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:17,760 Speaker 6: where Apple actually does have a stake in it. So 413 00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:20,639 Speaker 6: all of these things are happening at the moment. I 414 00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:22,800 Speaker 6: don't think the AI bubble is over yet. 415 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:25,119 Speaker 2: You keep referring to it as an AI bubble, and 416 00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:27,480 Speaker 2: yet the earnings for a lot of these companies are 417 00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:32,920 Speaker 2: growing into the valuations. I know that Doug Richard has 418 00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:37,159 Speaker 2: done a PhD in market narratives, so he's quite an 419 00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:40,760 Speaker 2: expert on narratives, and he got that PhD in his sixties, 420 00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:42,359 Speaker 2: which is pretty pretty impressive. 421 00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:45,080 Speaker 6: So last year, by the way, I. 422 00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:50,119 Speaker 2: Know, it's really quite quite intense and amazing. But but 423 00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:52,680 Speaker 2: you know, do you think you're jumping the gun a 424 00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:55,840 Speaker 2: little bit with saying bubble because we have not seen yet, 425 00:23:56,600 --> 00:24:01,040 Speaker 2: you know, the full ramifications, the full implications of official intelligence. 426 00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:02,840 Speaker 6: Well that's right, but we go back to what we 427 00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:04,960 Speaker 6: were saying a moment earlier. You know, isn't the wisdom 428 00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:09,000 Speaker 6: of the crowd picking out the potential benefits of these 429 00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:11,679 Speaker 6: things early on. You know, why is the market moving 430 00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:13,840 Speaker 6: in the way it is. Why does it have this 431 00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:18,160 Speaker 6: risk on element when we've had two wars, we've had 432 00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:23,000 Speaker 6: issues with China, sluggish growth, a load of risks out there, 433 00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:26,080 Speaker 6: and yet the market still continues. There is an underlying 434 00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:29,000 Speaker 6: narrative I think from AI that at the moment for 435 00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:30,760 Speaker 6: markets is more positive than negative. 436 00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:32,960 Speaker 3: I'm still going back to the guy who stepped out 437 00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:34,600 Speaker 3: in front of the Model T with the red flag. 438 00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:38,000 Speaker 3: Was he run over or did the car stop? Well? 439 00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:40,520 Speaker 6: I guess when they changed into second gear. When they 440 00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:42,919 Speaker 6: found the second gear, then he was in trouble. 441 00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:45,960 Speaker 2: All right, Richard, we'll probably have to leave it there. 442 00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:49,880 Speaker 2: Thanks very much for coming into the studios. Always an 443 00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:54,720 Speaker 2: interesting conversation. Richard Harris is CEO of Port Shelter Investment Management. 444 00:24:57,200 --> 00:25:00,199 Speaker 3: This has been the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast, bringing you 445 00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:03,320 Speaker 3: the stories making news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific. 446 00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:06,920 Speaker 3: Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to get more 447 00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:10,560 Speaker 3: episodes of this and other shows from Bloomberg. Subscribe to 448 00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:14,399 Speaker 3: the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen 449 00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:17,600 Speaker 3: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the 450 00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:18,680 Speaker 3: Bloomberg Business App.