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Speaker 1: This is straight fire with Jason McIntyre. It's me Jason McIntyre.

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Speaker 1: Thank you for joining me on this lovely Tuesday morning,

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Speaker 1: September twenty nine. Best bet come through. Let's get started

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Speaker 1: with that. How about that Kansas City Chiefs easily cover

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Speaker 1: three and a half best bet now and two. I

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Speaker 1: mentioned it off the top because I knew Rob g

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Speaker 1: would like that, and also because there is no best

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Speaker 1: bet tonight. I'm gonna take the night off gambling, maybe

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Speaker 1: spend some time with my family, turn off the television,

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Speaker 1: and get off social media as soon as that darn

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Speaker 1: debate starts. But we gotta start with sports, and obviously

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Speaker 1: we have to start here. Patrick mahomes All, I was

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Speaker 1: told all weekend, basically for the first couple of weeks

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Speaker 1: of the NFL season. Well, the Ravens are the best

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Speaker 1: team in football. We know that. Fourteen and two last year.

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Speaker 1: They got the m v P the Chiefs SI. You

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Speaker 1: know they're good. They got my homes, But I don't know.

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Speaker 1: They look shaky against the charges. Justin Herbert moved the

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Speaker 1: ball well, and it's like we forget how greatness can

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Speaker 1: easily be turned on and off when you've got a

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Speaker 1: guy like Mahomes and a coach like Reid. They played

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Speaker 1: the Chargers, a divisional foe who started a rookie quarterback

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Speaker 1: who had nobody had any tape on, and they just

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Speaker 1: sprung them on him, and Justin Herbert moved the ball well,

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Speaker 1: and the Chargers were competitive and nearly stole that game.

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Speaker 1: But nobody who watched Chiefs thirty four Ravens twenty can

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Speaker 1: look me in the eye today and say, hey man,

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Speaker 1: the Ravens are still the best team in football. They

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Speaker 1: just you know, they had an off night. That's just

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Speaker 1: not how it works. That's just not The Chiefs are

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Speaker 1: in a level above everyone else. The Chiefs are the

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Speaker 1: best team in football. The Ravens there are just in second.

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Speaker 1: There's certainly second, no doubt about it. I don't think

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Speaker 1: you can make a case for anybody else better than them.

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Speaker 1: But the Chiefs are by far, by far the better team.

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Speaker 1: I can't believe they were an underdog in that game.

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Speaker 1: And I mean, I don't know where you guys want

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Speaker 1: to start. The Kansas City Chiefs. Basically look Marcus Peters,

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Speaker 1: their former cornerback, and Calias Campbell and Patrick Queen, and

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Speaker 1: you know that was a good Ravens defense totally shut

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Speaker 1: down the Browns and the opener and look good. In

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Speaker 1: Week two, and the Kansas City Chiefs went three for

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Speaker 1: three in the red zone, seven point one yards per play,

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Speaker 1: five hundred and seventeen total yards, ten for thirteen on

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Speaker 1: third down. This was I mean, this was clinical. They

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Speaker 1: went up ten at halftime and essentially, you know, the

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Speaker 1: Ravens they just like toyed around with them in the

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Speaker 1: second half. It was like, oh, you know, we got

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Speaker 1: this game. It's all locked up. And the second half,

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Speaker 1: you know, the Chiefs puttered around and they had to

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Speaker 1: turn over here and uh, turnover on downs there, and

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Speaker 1: it's just like whatever, and the Ravens got kind of

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Speaker 1: back in it and all of a sudden, oh hey, guys,

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Speaker 1: let's just put them away there within a touchdown and

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Speaker 1: they drove down the field and there was no resistance

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Speaker 1: from Baltimore and they went up. And that's a rap, Like,

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Speaker 1: I don't know how anybody can disagree with this analogy

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Speaker 1: that and the NFL loves this. By the way, Patrick

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Speaker 1: Mahomes is the new Tom Brady. Lamar Jackson is the

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Speaker 1: new Peyton Manning. Now, obviously, Lamar is a different style

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Speaker 1: than Peyton Manning. I mean, they couldn't be bigger polar opposites.

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Speaker 1: Peyton the quintessential pocket quarterback, Lamar the modern quarterback um.

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Speaker 1: And if you look at the head to head, Tom

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Speaker 1: Brady eleven, Peyton Manning six. And if you look at

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Speaker 1: the early years, early two thousand's, Tom Brady won the

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Speaker 1: first six against Haydon, he had his number. Now he

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Speaker 1: had Belichick on his side, obviously, the great Bill Belichick,

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Speaker 1: greatest coach in NFL history, and he always had a

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Speaker 1: better defense. Won the first six, and there was at

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Speaker 1: the time, Oh, Peyton mann it can't get over the

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Speaker 1: hop Kippy Brady. Two of them were playoff games. And

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Speaker 1: now Pat Mahomes three, Lamar Jackson zero. And at this

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Speaker 1: stage in the game, I think you gotta ask some

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Speaker 1: questions about Lamar Jackson and playing from behind, because, folks,

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Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson passed for nine seven yards on Monday Night football.

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Speaker 1: That's it. It was sacked four times, pass for nineties

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Speaker 1: seven yards in the problem. We saw this against the

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Speaker 1: Titans in the playoff. Laws. If you can get a

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Speaker 1: lead and put Lamar Jackson to play from behind, he

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Speaker 1: really has not at this stage in his career displayed

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Speaker 1: the ability to come from behind against a really good

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Speaker 1: team and win the game. I don't know if that's

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Speaker 1: an indictment of his passing game. I mean, ninety seven

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Speaker 1: yards is geez um or that they like to set

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Speaker 1: up the pass with the run and you can't really

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Speaker 1: do that when you're in comeback mode. But think about

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Speaker 1: this for a second. Baltimore had a kickoff return for

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Speaker 1: a touchdown on the first half. Other than that, I mean,

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Speaker 1: the Baltimore Ravens had nothing at home in a big

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Speaker 1: spot that they had circled on the calendar since the

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Speaker 1: schedule came out. I don't think the Chief circled this

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Speaker 1: game on the calendar. This was just another game. You're

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl champions, you know you had the first

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Speaker 1: game of the season. Oh yeah, we have we have

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Speaker 1: the Ravens coming up. Okay um I this was a

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Speaker 1: game Baltimore needed. I'm not off the Baltimore Ravens again.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna and I know Rob G's gonna come in

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Speaker 1: here killing Lamar because that's what he does. He loves

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Speaker 1: to go after Jamal Murray and now he's gonna kill

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Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson. I just think The Ravens are a team that,

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Speaker 1: in their heads, shucks, man, we can't fall behind. We

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Speaker 1: just can't. And you know they listen. They're gonna be

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Speaker 1: double digit favorites against the Washington Football Club and then

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Speaker 1: they get the Bengals and they'll probably beat down both

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Speaker 1: of those teams pretty darn good than they have the Eagles,

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Speaker 1: another team that is in disarray, and folks Lamar Jackson.

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Speaker 1: Eventually they'll get the Steelers at the end of October.

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Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson is now twenty two and one in the

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Speaker 1: regular season against everyone except the Chiefs. He's oh and

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Speaker 1: three against Kansas City. So the big picture takeaway, Patrick

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Speaker 1: Mahomes is the most exciting player in the NFL. That's undeniable.

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Speaker 1: And I know Lamar Jackson's exciting, but Mahomes is a

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Speaker 1: different level because he can beat you so badly from

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Speaker 1: the pocket. And this is I went on the Dan

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Speaker 1: Patrick Show. I hosted it, I think with Rob Parker

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Speaker 1: a few months back in July, and I compared Mahomes

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Speaker 1: to Fe Curry and I laid it out and a

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Speaker 1: lot of people liked, and of course, you know, the

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Speaker 1: Curry haters hated it. But think about this, Patrick Mahomes.

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Speaker 1: His father played professional baseball. Steph Curry's father, Dell Curry,

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Speaker 1: played in the NBA. Patrick Mahomes was under recruitered in

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Speaker 1: high school. This was not a five star recruit, slam

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Speaker 1: dunk guy. He ended up at Texas Tech. Steph Curry

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Speaker 1: obviously the story is very famous. UM. His father played

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Speaker 1: at Virginia Tech. He tried to go to Virginia Tech.

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Speaker 1: They said we'll make you a walk on. He's like,

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Speaker 1: I'll take a free boat from Davidson. So both of

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Speaker 1: them were not highly recruited in high school. And I

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Speaker 1: love this one. If you look at Mahomes his last

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Speaker 1: year at Texas Tech, they didn't even play in a

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Speaker 1: bowl game. They were ineligible for a bowl game because

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Speaker 1: they didn't win enough games. Steph Curry of course missed

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Speaker 1: the n c A tournament in his final year at Davidson.

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Speaker 1: His second year was the year they made that epic

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Speaker 1: run UH to the Elite eight and lost to Kansas. UM.

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Speaker 1: I usually watched that UM postseason, that postseason run that

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Speaker 1: Curry made on YouTube, like I don't know, every six months,

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Speaker 1: just because I love it. UM. Patrick Mahomes did not

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Speaker 1: get drafted in the top five. There were questions about

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Speaker 1: Pat Mahomes. I was one of the guys who was like,

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Speaker 1: come on, Big twelve, they don't play no defense. He

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Speaker 1: dropped in the draft. Chiefs had to trade up. I

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Speaker 1: believe to ten, Rob, you can check that force in

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Speaker 1: a second. Um, you fell out of the top five.

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Speaker 1: Curry was not taken in the top five, And don't

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Speaker 1: make me go through that. My favorite story, one are

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Speaker 1: my all time favorite stories leading up to the NBA

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Speaker 1: Draft was the Sacramento Kings had tyreeck Evans work out

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Speaker 1: against Steph Curry and made them play one on one. Now,

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Speaker 1: Steph Curry's out of one on one guy, and Tyreek

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Speaker 1: Evans murdered him, just killed Curry one on one. I mean,

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Speaker 1: and they, you know, the executives, Oh gosh, Tyree Tyreek Evns,

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Speaker 1: what a superstar? Oh holy cow, how good is this guy?

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Speaker 1: And you know the reality is Steph Curry is a

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Speaker 1: two time m v P unanimous m v P. Michael

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Speaker 1: Jordan's was not a unanimous MVP. Curry's got four, three

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Speaker 1: or four rings. I forget um, But like falling in

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Speaker 1: the draft can be a good thing. It worked for

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Speaker 1: Ma Homes. It worked for Curry and finally, and I

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Speaker 1: know the haters are gonna hate this one, but Patrick

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Speaker 1: Mahomes and Steph Curry both interrupted greatness. Came out of nowhere.

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Speaker 1: Remember Tom Brady was supposed to be the guy in

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Speaker 1: New England who was gonna win more Super Bowl Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl Championships as Peyton Manning retired. Remember Brady got one

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Speaker 1: beating the Rams, and boom, out of nowhere comes Patrick Mahomes.

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Speaker 1: Holy cow, he's gonna take over the league. And like,

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Speaker 1: I don't think listen, Brady's gonna one another one. You know,

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Speaker 1: he won twinning Tampa. But Mahomes is really taking the

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Speaker 1: shine off the end of Brady's career. Patrick Mahomes is

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Speaker 1: a superstar. And as much as I like Lebron and

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Speaker 1: I think he's gonna end up as the greatest player

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Speaker 1: in NBA history with the title this year, Steph Curry

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Speaker 1: really for about five years there interrupted Lebron's greatness. Remember

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Speaker 1: Lebron went back to Cleveland with Kyrie. They were going

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Speaker 1: to wreck the league and didn't totally work out that way.

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Speaker 1: As Kevin Durant and Steph Curry went on an incredible run.

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Speaker 1: I get Mahomes and Curry. Some people are not gonna

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Speaker 1: like the match up on sir. Some people are gonna

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Speaker 1: toss into Oh Jason. It's a light skin brother thing. Um,

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Speaker 1: but I do like it um between Curry and Mahomes.

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Speaker 1: Now Rob G wants to come in hot with some

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Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson hatorade. He's guzzling that hatorade this morning, Rob G,

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Speaker 1: Producer to the Stars. Your thoughts on Lamar Jackson nine

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Speaker 1: seven passing yards on Monday Night Football. Lamar Jackson is

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Speaker 1: who we thought he was. He is a tremendous talent.

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Speaker 1: He was a well deserving, enemous m v P. But

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Speaker 1: he is just not an elite quarterback. And when I

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Speaker 1: say that, I don't mean that he's not a good player,

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Speaker 1: not an elite player. I mean an elite quarterback. An

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Speaker 1: elite quarterback should be able to bring you back when

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Speaker 1: you're behind. When you say, hey, we're down by seventeen,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna have to score, score quickly. We gotta put

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Speaker 1: the ball on your shoulders, on that right arm of yours,

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Speaker 1: and you're gonna have to bring us back. Patrick Mahomes

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Speaker 1: is an elite quarterback. He is won his last six

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Speaker 1: games while trailing by at least ten points. That's that's

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Speaker 1: I think three in the playoffs, right, Yes, that is

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Speaker 1: a a NFL quarterback record, so obviously at a different

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Speaker 1: level to this, but just to give you some idea

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Speaker 1: as to what exactly you're getting from Lamar Jackson as

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Speaker 1: a passer, especially when they fall behind in games since

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Speaker 1: two eighteen, the Baltimore Ravens are o and ten when

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Speaker 1: trailing at halftime in any game, including now all of

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Speaker 1: that's not all on the mark because he wasn't. Only

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Speaker 1: you know, he only lost what is it five games

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Speaker 1: total as as a starter, so you know it's not

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Speaker 1: on him. But that's just one thing. Here's another one.

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Speaker 1: In games where the other team scores at least twenty

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Speaker 1: five points, which means you're in a little bit of

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Speaker 1: a shootout, Okay, Patrick mahomes seven and six, which is

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Speaker 1: you know, I honestly that'd be higher, but still very good.

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Speaker 1: Seven states me. He's winning a lot of shootouts. Lamar

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Speaker 1: Jackson is oh and five. So when teams he doesn't

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Speaker 1: if he doesn't get defense, no I mean not just defense,

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Speaker 1: if he doesn't get ahead early or he can just

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Speaker 1: their offense can just grind you out and run the

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Speaker 1: ball and kill the clock and that kind of stuff.

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Speaker 1: He he's not built to win with his arm. And

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Speaker 1: I know people are gonna say, well, you have the

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Speaker 1: highest quarterback rate. He threw at a hundred fifty quarterback

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Speaker 1: rating three different times already. It's a record. Watch him

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Speaker 1: play and tell me that he you're worried about him

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Speaker 1: beating you from the pod it you're not, well, it's

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Speaker 1: hold on, hold on, Robbie. It's a tough one because

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Speaker 1: he can win from the pocket, but I think coming

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Speaker 1: from behind in the pocket is the real issue because

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Speaker 1: he can he could drop balls into a buckets. I mean,

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Speaker 1: he's a great passer. Yeah, I know it's different. You think, No,

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Speaker 1: it's different when teams know you have to pass. That's

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Speaker 1: why when teams are when they're behind and they can't

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Speaker 1: just run the ball down your throat, they're not gonna win.

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Speaker 1: And that's why. And I tweeted this out last night

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Speaker 1: after the game. This game on Monday night was being

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Speaker 1: hailed as Jackson Mahomes, is this the new Manning? Brady.

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Speaker 1: I think even you said it on the podcast, saying

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Speaker 1: that is so disrespectful to Peyton Manning and I know

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Speaker 1: that he didn't have the greatest postseason careers, kind of

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Speaker 1: the Clinton Kershaw of the NFL. But at least when

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Speaker 1: Payton Manning was in, even if they were down by

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Speaker 1: three scores, you're like, you know what, we got about

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Speaker 1: ten minutes on the clock. Paid If he Payton gets

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Speaker 1: quick a touchdown here, you know we might see something

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Speaker 1: special down down the stretch. As soon as Lamar is

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Speaker 1: down by ten, you're like, well, they're not gonna be

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Speaker 1: able to come back. Not enough time because each drive

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Speaker 1: is gonna take eight minutes. They're not gonna be able

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Speaker 1: to win in big chunk plays when if the defense

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Speaker 1: is expecting to throw so until he develops as a quarterback,

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Speaker 1: not as a a Swiss Army knife who can run

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Speaker 1: all over the field and and and orchestrate this really

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Speaker 1: unique offense, until you can say, hey, we're down by ten,

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Speaker 1: we got to score quick. You're the guy. Until you

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Speaker 1: trust him to do that, they're not going to be

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Speaker 1: a legitimate Super Bowl contender. It's why I think as

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Speaker 1: soon as they face the Chiefs in the playoffs, they're

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Speaker 1: gonna get smashed. If something happens to the Chiefs and

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Speaker 1: they fall off early and the Ravens make a run

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Speaker 1: of the Super Bowl and they run into Aaron Rodgers.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna get smashed. They they they are not built

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Speaker 1: to win like that. Well, where this one really hurts,

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Speaker 1: rob G. Is now there essentially a game and a

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Speaker 1: half back for the number one seed, right because there

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Speaker 1: is no boy for the number two seed this year

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Speaker 1: with seven playoff teams. And I would assume, again maybe

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Speaker 1: this is an idiotic assumption on my part that there

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Speaker 1: will be fans in the stadium in the postseason. I

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Speaker 1: don't know. I mean, going to Kansas City is not

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Speaker 1: gonna be easy. We know it's snows there in January

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Speaker 1: like every day, basically, um and and yeah, this is

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Speaker 1: this is this is not good news for the Ravens.

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Speaker 1: I don't think the sky is falling you. You're very

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Speaker 1: much on the pissimistic side for the Ravens. Um. But again,

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Speaker 1: you look at that schedule, Rob G. They're gonna be

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Speaker 1: right there. It'll be a stunner if they're not the

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Speaker 1: number two seeds in the a f C. Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: would agree with that, but that you know, they're the

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Speaker 1: Houston Rockets, so you don't care if you win in

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Speaker 1: the regular At this point, I've already seen what you

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Speaker 1: can do in the regular season. What can you do

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Speaker 1: in the playoffs? And the playoff history says that you

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Speaker 1: get Lamar Jackson in the postseason and he's team is

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Speaker 1: behind or they and you can't just run down your throat.

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Speaker 1: Completion percentage, three touchdowns, three picks, quarterback rating of two

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Speaker 1: fumbles per game numbers never lie man, All right, that

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Speaker 1: puts a bow On Monday Night Football, Rob G's King

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Speaker 1: of the Haters. We have a guest coming up later

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Speaker 1: in the show, really smart Guy, to preview the Major

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Speaker 1: League Baseball postseason, which begins today. Hopefully you're listening to

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Speaker 1: this podcast before the first pitch is thrown. Edward E. Gross.

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Speaker 1: I've done some television with him. Really sharp guy, analytically based.

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Speaker 1: You want to get smarter, you listen to that. But first,

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Speaker 1: Rob G and I Rob G, I know you're gonna

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Speaker 1: want to weigh in on this. It was a stunner

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Speaker 1: for me. So I get home from the studio on Monday,

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Speaker 1: Rob and you know, I take off the clothes. I'm relaxing.

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Speaker 1: I check in with the old parents because I try

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Speaker 1: to call my parents often during COVID and I get

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Speaker 1: off my phone and I was hearing all the beeps

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Speaker 1: coming in all these my teeth. What is all these texts?

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Speaker 1: And I see the Doc Rivers fired slash parted ways,

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Speaker 1: which we know really means fired by the l A Clippers. Now,

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Speaker 1: this to me was a massive shocker because Doc Rivers

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Speaker 1: is well liked, right Balmer and him ers, Cozy Kawai

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Speaker 1: Leonard and Paul George. I mean, according to reports they

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Speaker 1: wanted to go to the Clippers to play for Doc Rivers,

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Speaker 1: who was a very big players coach um. And I

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Speaker 1: was just I was stunned. So I checked in with

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Speaker 1: a source who I got to know out here a

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Speaker 1: little bit in l A. And if you guys remember

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Speaker 1: I had this guy on the show. He was against

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Speaker 1: Preston Johnson early in the podcast, and I had met

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Speaker 1: him out here in l A. And you know, we

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Speaker 1: talked about and I told him, listen, I've developed a

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Speaker 1: pretty good Clippers source. And this gentleman told me that

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Speaker 1: Lou Williams is going to really struggle in the bubble

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Speaker 1: because he likes to juggle tons of women. That's like

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Speaker 1: what he does, that's his thing out here. He's got

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Speaker 1: a lot of girls and as soon as the loo

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Speaker 1: Williams left the bubble and went to a strip club

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Speaker 1: to get chicken wing story. Kape Preston texted me and

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Speaker 1: was like, holy cow, you've got a good Clipper source.

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Speaker 1: And I remember, oh yeah, this guy, so I check

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Speaker 1: in with him instantly. What the hell happened to Doc Rivers?

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Speaker 1: Oh man got ugly at the exit interviews. I guess

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Speaker 1: they did depart the bubble. You know, everybody unwinds and

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Speaker 1: they go in and meet with powers that be. I

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Speaker 1: don't know if they met with Balmer, uh, Jerry West

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Speaker 1: the front office, and apparently people were not happy, and

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Speaker 1: I guess it did not go swimmingly in the bubble

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Speaker 1: and the Doc Rivers is the big news, but the

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Speaker 1: other leg that again, this is just what I've heard

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Speaker 1: that Paul George did not get rave reviews from his teammates.

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Speaker 1: And my person would not be shocked if Paul George

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Speaker 1: were shipped out of town. And the potential landing spot

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Speaker 1: is the Brooklyn Nets, where he would then team with

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Speaker 1: Kyrie and Kevin Durant and in exchange, the Clippers would

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Speaker 1: get something along the lines of Carriss Lavert Spencer Dinwittie

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Speaker 1: some sort of second round draft pick, because we know

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Speaker 1: they don't have any first or whatever. To balance out

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Speaker 1: the rest of the deal. I'm sure the Clippers would

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Speaker 1: love to get Jared Allen, who had to take a

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Speaker 1: back seat to DeAndre Jordan, because DeAndre Jordan's friends with

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Speaker 1: Kyrie and Kevin Durant. I can't imagine the Brooklyn Nets

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Speaker 1: parting with Jared Allen. He's a good young big We

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Speaker 1: know the Clippers just got humiliated by Yokich in the

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Speaker 1: bubble um. But it's not just Paul George. Now, I

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Speaker 1: did tweak this out and a lot of people freaked out.

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Speaker 1: I got a lot of angry messages from Brooklyn Nets fans.

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Speaker 1: We don't want Paul George. But the interesting thing is here,

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Speaker 1: it's not just Paul George. Like Montrez, Harrold is a

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Speaker 1: free agent. I think he might have cost himself some

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Speaker 1: money in the bubble He really struggled. We know he

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Speaker 1: had the passing of a relative and he didn't respond

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Speaker 1: well to the play in the bubble and it's I

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Speaker 1: guess it's not a lot that he's coming back to

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Speaker 1: the Clippers now. I don't know where he might land

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Speaker 1: we know, um Houston would love a small ball center. Uh,

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Speaker 1: you can't go the whole season with Robert Covington. So

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Speaker 1: I don't know where Harold ends up. Um, maybe he

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Speaker 1: stays with the Clippers that are reduced costs. He has

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Speaker 1: to eat it, but it would be if it's gonna

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Speaker 1: be fascinating to monitor the Clippers this offseason. Remember Rob,

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Speaker 1: this was an offseason where it was basically, oh, Janice

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Speaker 1: is gonna get the Supermax offer and rejected, and then

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Speaker 1: we'll have fun with that. But really, nobody else's gonna

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Speaker 1: hit the market. Coordinay, were probably gonna stay in Boston,

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Speaker 1: although they might try to move him. Um. And now

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Speaker 1: this Paul George thing could spiral into UM, who knows

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Speaker 1: what Rob gi any thoughts first of all on on

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Speaker 1: this Paul George stuff, And I listen, I don't want

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Speaker 1: any aggregators to freak out and try to put this

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Speaker 1: out there. I'm just saying what I've heard. Okay, this

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Speaker 1: is not I checked in with the Clippers and they

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Speaker 1: denied I'm not doing that stuff. Okay. Um, any thoughts, Rob,

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Speaker 1: Paul George, do you think he returns to the Clippers. Yes,

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Speaker 1: only because I don't think you'll be able to get

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Speaker 1: a haul that helps offset all the picks you gave

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Speaker 1: to get him. I think that's number one. Number two,

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Speaker 1: I'm a little upset that you said this is not

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Speaker 1: for the aggregator because I was in the middle of

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Speaker 1: flagging this as a promo that I was going to

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Speaker 1: push out. So you made my job. You can feel

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Speaker 1: afraid to do that. That's fine. Uh, I just don't like,

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Speaker 1: I know, I know the haters like to come out

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Speaker 1: and go after people. Uh, here's your reporting this and

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Speaker 1: and like the trade doesn't happen, or a different trade happens,

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Speaker 1: you are wrong, Like, hey, I'm just telling you guys

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Speaker 1: what I heard. But number go ahead, well say at

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Speaker 1: number three. I think that a lot of people, especially

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Speaker 1: in the sports media business. Oh, A big apology to

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Speaker 1: Stephen A. Smith, because he said our First Takes a

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Speaker 1: few weeks ago that with what you've been hearing about

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Speaker 1: Paul George, that he was quickly becoming the Dwight Howard

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Speaker 1: of the NBA, and by that he was saying, like, look,

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Speaker 1: this guy just doesn't it. There's something with his personality

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Speaker 1: and his mental makeup that he's just not built for

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Speaker 1: championship level basketball, and a lot of people pushed back

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Speaker 1: on it. They're like, well, I can't you say that

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Speaker 1: about Dwight Howard. Um. You know, Dwight was a clown.

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Speaker 1: He saw what happened in Orlando and then in Houston,

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Speaker 1: and then you know, his track record was much longer.

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Speaker 1: Howard was like, I want to eat skittles. But then

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Speaker 1: there was a small contingent and a lot of it was,

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Speaker 1: you know, real hoop eds were saying, well, actually, you're

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Speaker 1: being disrespectful to Dwight Howard because Howard was a much

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Speaker 1: better player than Paul George ever was. So that was

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Speaker 1: one thing I intended to be on that side. So

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Speaker 1: now that we're kind of seeing this come out a

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Speaker 1: little bit more and a little bit more so, Chris

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Speaker 1: Haines had something, Sham's had something, McIntyre has something, So

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Speaker 1: everybody has a little bit to add to this story.

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Speaker 1: And I think you're starting to see, uh, Paul George's

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Speaker 1: true colors. Man. Well, when you have these huge letdowns,

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Speaker 1: Rob g Um, you can't listen. This was a total

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Speaker 1: embarrassment for the franchise they got. They had a three

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Speaker 1: one leading gets a Denver Nuggets Lakers just dispatched the Nuggets.

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Speaker 1: As Rob g likes to say, hashtag Lakers and five

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Speaker 1: like like it was no, no big deal. I mean,

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Speaker 1: du dude, somebody sent me this, Rob, I don't I

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Speaker 1: haven't totally confirmed it, but in the close out game,

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Speaker 1: Lebron had something like thirty six, fourteen and ten or

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Speaker 1: whatever it was. In Game seven close out against the Nuggets,

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Speaker 1: Kauai and Paul George combined for fewer points, rebounds, and

424
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:32,960
Speaker 1: assist than Lebron. Now, unfortunately I'm not gonna google that

425
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:37,720
Speaker 1: on the internet here, but if that's true, that franchise

426
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:39,879
Speaker 1: has some major problems and I should have taken more

427
00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:43,000
Speaker 1: of that into consideration. I wonder if you think if

428
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:46,520
Speaker 1: the Nuggets had pushed the Lakers to seven, does does

429
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:48,800
Speaker 1: Doc Rivers maybe not get fired or was it a

430
00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:50,960
Speaker 1: fate accompany that as soon as they were they lost.

431
00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:54,320
Speaker 1: He's got to go because it's embarrassing that the Lakers

432
00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 1: beat them as soundly as the Clippers lost to them.

433
00:23:57,800 --> 00:23:59,280
Speaker 1: I think he would have had to go either way.

434
00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:01,640
Speaker 1: I mean, like I said, I expected as soon as

435
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:03,960
Speaker 1: the season was over he was going to stay on

436
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:06,320
Speaker 1: because he's so well liked and because he seemed to

437
00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:09,399
Speaker 1: put on a a good face for the league and

438
00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:14,520
Speaker 1: during the whole boycott situation. But the fact remains. I mean,

439
00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:16,440
Speaker 1: if they if they had made it to seven, and

440
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 1: I don't think it really matters because this is a

441
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:21,119
Speaker 1: fun staff for you. In his first season as the

442
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:24,919
Speaker 1: Lakers head coach, Frank Vogel has three playoff series wins.

443
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:27,840
Speaker 1: You know how many playoff series wins Doc Rivers has

444
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 1: had in his entire seven years with the Clippers. Three,

445
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:36,200
Speaker 1: So I mean, you know, it is what it is

446
00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:39,520
Speaker 1: now and again, as a Lakers fan, I kind of

447
00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:41,440
Speaker 1: I'm sad to see him go because he was a

448
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:44,080
Speaker 1: terrible coach. As I've told you, I would have loved

449
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:47,159
Speaker 1: to see him across the hall. But you know, we

450
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 1: ripped on Paul Georgia, ripped on Doc Rivers a lot.

451
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 1: I think what I'm surprised at still is where is

452
00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:57,320
Speaker 1: the Kauai Leonard slander. That's a good question, but I

453
00:24:57,359 --> 00:24:59,119
Speaker 1: know the answer, man. He don't say. He's not on

454
00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:02,240
Speaker 1: social media. He's not stirring the pot. He's not posted

455
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:05,919
Speaker 1: up like at a club or vacation ng or like

456
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 1: Lebron's on Instagram stories every day there's something for people

457
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 1: to comment about Lebron every single day, whether it's Instagram,

458
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 1: Twitter or whatever. Kauai is a ghost. We haven't heard

459
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:20,040
Speaker 1: anything from him. Now, maybe Rob G what if this

460
00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:23,120
Speaker 1: is by design that he's staying out of the mix

461
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:26,639
Speaker 1: because he off doc and he's gonna get Paul George

462
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:29,040
Speaker 1: shipped out of town. And guess what, there's no brush back.

463
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:31,080
Speaker 1: If you're not on social media, you're out of it, right,

464
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:35,639
Speaker 1: are you safe? That's could be it. But then let

465
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:37,600
Speaker 1: me just say, speaking to social media, I follow a

466
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 1: guy I want to butcher his name, but he's at

467
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:42,880
Speaker 1: D A M A n R. So I don't want

468
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 1: to pusher his name. But he did a Kauai Leonard threat.

469
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:47,879
Speaker 1: I think you'll appreciate this. This is just some facts

470
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 1: about Kawhi letter but begin because he didn't talk. Nobody

471
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 1: ever mentioned any of this stuff. Number one, Kauai ghost

472
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:57,240
Speaker 1: did a coaching legend and Great Papa's a great organization

473
00:25:57,240 --> 00:25:59,960
Speaker 1: in the Spurs to the point where players straight up

474
00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 1: called him out. That's factual. Number two demanded a trade

475
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:07,919
Speaker 1: from that organization. Demanded to be traded to Los Angeles only,

476
00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:11,240
Speaker 1: thus hurting the organization's ability to get a good return.

477
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:16,199
Speaker 1: That's true. Number two. Number three the only Finals m

478
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:18,960
Speaker 1: v P in history to leave his current team behind

479
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:22,560
Speaker 1: instead of trying to repeat and in the process so

480
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:24,680
Speaker 1: we could get Steve Balmber to buy him in a

481
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:27,760
Speaker 1: legal house and new balance to give him a better

482
00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:33,040
Speaker 1: shoe deal at the expense of winning. Number four demanded

483
00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 1: that an already good team, which the Clippers were, gut

484
00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:38,879
Speaker 1: its asset base where all the young players and a

485
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:41,920
Speaker 1: slew a pis for a short sighted move to go

486
00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:46,200
Speaker 1: in for Palm Dale. Wesley Johnson, that was kind of means,

487
00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 1: hold on, I don't know. I don't know if the

488
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:52,639
Speaker 1: non l A listeners will know that. So Palm Dale's

489
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:54,680
Speaker 1: what like an hour outside of like like two hours,

490
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 1: So that's like they's not it's not quite a one

491
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:01,160
Speaker 1: stop like town, but it's Palm Dale is nothing special.

492
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:05,440
Speaker 1: And Wesley Johnson that was just me. There's there's there's

493
00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:09,800
Speaker 1: two more. There's two more here. Wait wait, Wesley Johnson

494
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:11,960
Speaker 1: is a former Syracuse stud Yes, who I think with

495
00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:17,240
Speaker 1: third overall in the draft four years right, Okay, so

496
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:20,320
Speaker 1: last two. On top of all of this, Kauai only

497
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 1: gave his new team a two year commitment, forcing the

498
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:27,160
Speaker 1: organization to continue to make shortsighted moves, hurting their long

499
00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:31,280
Speaker 1: term chances of winning, and finally, in his last year

500
00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:33,520
Speaker 1: of being the leader of a locker room and the team,

501
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 1: his team spectacularly collapsed in historic fashion despite being the

502
00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:40,840
Speaker 1: overwhelming favorite to win at all, and ends with Doc

503
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:46,480
Speaker 1: Rivers being fired. Now, if that's any other player, how

504
00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:52,080
Speaker 1: the hell did he avoid criticism? Okay, So what's this

505
00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:56,200
Speaker 1: guy's handle again? D at d A M or d

506
00:27:56,240 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 1: A M A n R. I think it's Demon Rangoula. Okay, Oh,

507
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:04,119
Speaker 1: he's like a radio guy. I just know that he

508
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:07,440
Speaker 1: puts out good Laker tweets. That is that is a

509
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:11,400
Speaker 1: beat down. Oh my goodness, listen at some point. Here's

510
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:14,280
Speaker 1: the thing, though, Kauai can just duck the media. He

511
00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:15,879
Speaker 1: doesn't have to appear for the front of the media

512
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:18,800
Speaker 1: for anything. You we won't hear from Kawhi Leonard until

513
00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:20,400
Speaker 1: I don't even know when the season is gonna start

514
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:24,920
Speaker 1: January December. Like he's just gonna he's gonna just hide out.

515
00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 1: Now maybe if I see, well, there used to be

516
00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:29,399
Speaker 1: U c l A runs in the off season, but

517
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:32,359
Speaker 1: I guess you can't do those now because U c

518
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:35,360
Speaker 1: l A is like in session. Um, yeah, I don't

519
00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 1: know what's gonna happen. Uh, that was good stuff. So

520
00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:40,560
Speaker 1: we just did a good ten minutes on the Clippers.

521
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 1: Love a little Clipper bashing. And now let's get to

522
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 1: our guest. Uh. He's a baseball analytical mind, really sharp

523
00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:49,600
Speaker 1: individual and if you want tips on how to bet

524
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:53,400
Speaker 1: the Major League Baseball postseason, take a listen to Edward E. Gross.

525
00:28:57,120 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 1: Jason likes to think he knows everything when it comes

526
00:28:59,880 --> 00:29:03,120
Speaker 1: to sports. I know what sports dance want, but for

527
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 1: everything he doesn't, he knows a guy who does. Let's

528
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:09,000
Speaker 1: just say I know a guy who who knows a

529
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:12,680
Speaker 1: guy who knows another guy. All right, let's welcome in

530
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:15,960
Speaker 1: to the podcast a new guest. We've never had him

531
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:18,960
Speaker 1: on before. Edward E. Gross is a gross or E

532
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:25,280
Speaker 1: Gross Gross, go with yours. I did a TV show

533
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:28,160
Speaker 1: on the tv G network with the Horse Racing Network

534
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:31,840
Speaker 1: about sports gambling with ed I guess two years ago.

535
00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:35,840
Speaker 1: And you know, I excel or I like to think

536
00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 1: I excel at basketball and football, and they had to

537
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:40,520
Speaker 1: do baseball. So I was like, all right, I gotta

538
00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:42,720
Speaker 1: I gotta bone up on baseball, and they were like, listen,

539
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:45,680
Speaker 1: the guy who's coming on to talk baseball is dominant

540
00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:47,760
Speaker 1: on baseball. I was like, oh my gosh. So I

541
00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 1: met Ed and we were doing the show and he's

542
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 1: killing it, and uh, I figured to preview the Major

543
00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 1: League Baseball playoffs. We've been in ed ED. You are

544
00:29:56,720 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 1: a a sports analytic expert and you teach a sports

545
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 1: analytics class at s m U. Is that in person

546
00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 1: or zoom? Oh, it's it's all over the place right now.

547
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:12,840
Speaker 1: Analytics right now is is largely on zoom where all

548
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:16,120
Speaker 1: the students chime in, they sign in, and then uh

549
00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:19,040
Speaker 1: we basically code together as a class where we open

550
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:22,120
Speaker 1: up our programs and make sure the code is correct

551
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:24,960
Speaker 1: and we're following along and we're all doing it remotely

552
00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 1: from pretty much across the country. A lot of people

553
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:30,800
Speaker 1: in Dallas, but certainly there's some in other places. And

554
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:32,840
Speaker 1: it's it's a lot of fun. I mean, it certainly

555
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 1: has his challenges in terms of making sure that the

556
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:37,760
Speaker 1: internet works, that the power goes down, and there's not

557
00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 1: much you can do as far as that's concerned, but

558
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:42,120
Speaker 1: the students have been great and it's a lot of

559
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:44,080
Speaker 1: fun to teacher. So, ed, let me ask you. When

560
00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:46,719
Speaker 1: you say code, I think a large segment of the

561
00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:49,280
Speaker 1: listening population is like, wait, wait, does this guy have

562
00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 1: a model? Did he build a model? We've only had

563
00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:55,760
Speaker 1: one other guest on UM, Preston Johnson, who's a k

564
00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:57,800
Speaker 1: A sports cheetah. I don't know if you know him,

565
00:30:58,040 --> 00:31:00,640
Speaker 1: but he's he's a guy with the model. And I

566
00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:04,400
Speaker 1: have a couple of buddies who built a college basketball model. Um,

567
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:08,480
Speaker 1: but explained to the audience, like how you built this model,

568
00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:11,040
Speaker 1: how it came to be in your background, how you

569
00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 1: got to this spot. Yeah, definitely. So my my breadground

570
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 1: is is in journalism and television. I've I've done that

571
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:20,400
Speaker 1: for years and so you know, certainly the comfort is

572
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 1: there about as much as it can be. But you

573
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:25,960
Speaker 1: know the thing about data and coding and all that

574
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:29,120
Speaker 1: stuff is that you know the world is more analytical

575
00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:32,360
Speaker 1: now than ever before, and basically there's a number and

576
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:36,280
Speaker 1: a statistic for just about everything. And so my background

577
00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 1: has always been, whether it's statistical economics or basic stats,

578
00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:44,320
Speaker 1: whatever it is, I've always been intrigued by what trends

579
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:48,200
Speaker 1: we can find within the data. And so with analytics

580
00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 1: and with free software that you can download online, our Python,

581
00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:55,600
Speaker 1: whatever you want. You can download data, put it in

582
00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:59,120
Speaker 1: your software, and then uncovered trends in a variety of ways.

583
00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:01,960
Speaker 1: Sometimes it can be simple things like just finding the

584
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 1: straight line that best represents the points, to far more

585
00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:09,239
Speaker 1: complex things like machine learning, black box methods, whatever they

586
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:11,800
Speaker 1: might be. And what's cool about this is that you

587
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 1: can actually uncover what trends are and then use whatever

588
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 1: data you have to predict what you think is going

589
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:21,520
Speaker 1: to happen. And that's basically what analytics and gambling is

590
00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:24,560
Speaker 1: all about, is finding the trends, finding the regressions, finding

591
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:28,400
Speaker 1: the models that you come up with based upon past data,

592
00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 1: based upon history, and then projecting what is going to

593
00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 1: happen using that current model. And so when it comes

594
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:38,720
Speaker 1: to say baseball, here you can look at models that

595
00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:41,800
Speaker 1: have worked in years past in terms of the best statistics,

596
00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:45,440
Speaker 1: the most telling analytics in terms of pitching and hitting

597
00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:48,320
Speaker 1: and defense, things like that, and then use those numbers,

598
00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:51,520
Speaker 1: wait them appropriately, and then come up with your prediction

599
00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 1: based upon what we saw in the regular season this year.

600
00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:57,360
Speaker 1: I love this and it does I'm sure there's gonna

601
00:32:57,400 --> 00:32:59,240
Speaker 1: be people who are like man, that's too much work.

602
00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 1: But I'm telling ed you know that you're at the

603
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 1: forefront of this, and basically, as states realize Holy cal

604
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:09,280
Speaker 1: Covid put us in a bad spot, we need to

605
00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:12,360
Speaker 1: generate money. Gambling is going to be legal in probably

606
00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:14,960
Speaker 1: all fifty states within the next decade. That's my guess.

607
00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:17,960
Speaker 1: Is that reasonable it? I think it's absolutely reasonable, and

608
00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 1: I think there's a real appetite for it. In fact,

609
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 1: during the early stages of this pandemic, I can't remember

610
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:26,120
Speaker 1: where the article was from, maybe the New York Times,

611
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 1: but a lot of sports gamblers actually went to the

612
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:32,840
Speaker 1: stock market. They were not investors at all, but they

613
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:35,600
Speaker 1: still had the itch to gamble on something. So they

614
00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:38,480
Speaker 1: started doing all of this research on various stocks and

615
00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:41,120
Speaker 1: businesses that they knew absolutely nothing about, but they looked

616
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:43,640
Speaker 1: at the data and figured out the best ways to invest.

617
00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:46,760
Speaker 1: I mean, you can invest money in the stock market

618
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:49,440
Speaker 1: far more easily now than you ever could. And I

619
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:51,560
Speaker 1: think because that itch and appetite is there by so

620
00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:54,400
Speaker 1: many people, I think it's only gonna be a matter

621
00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:57,520
Speaker 1: of time, maybe even less than ten years, where gambling

622
00:33:57,600 --> 00:34:00,840
Speaker 1: is pretty much legal pretty much everywhere. And you're also

623
00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 1: seeing it in states that are relatively conservative states like

624
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 1: West Virginia, they have sports books now. I know Mississippi

625
00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:12,000
Speaker 1: has been really big on getting gambling going in terms

626
00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 1: of revenue for the state and things like that. So

627
00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:16,960
Speaker 1: the fact that it's happening in different places, it's not

628
00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:20,120
Speaker 1: necessarily a regional thing. It's happening, you know here, and

629
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:22,960
Speaker 1: they're sort of a hodgepodge. I think that means that

630
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:26,319
Speaker 1: gambling will be even faster than perhaps or all anticipating.

631
00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 1: And and in baseball, where you know, data has ruled,

632
00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:32,880
Speaker 1: I would say it got it ruled before the NFL

633
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:35,759
Speaker 1: got heavy into data and the NBA. You know, the

634
00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:37,839
Speaker 1: three point revolution happened. But you've got to go back

635
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:41,239
Speaker 1: to Billy Bean and the saber metric guys. Probably about

636
00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:43,759
Speaker 1: two decades ago baseball was at the forefront. So and

637
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:47,040
Speaker 1: I'm assuming that you've got a ton of of data

638
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:49,399
Speaker 1: here that you want to unload heading into the Major

639
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 1: League Baseball playoffs where you can help us find some winners.

640
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:54,719
Speaker 1: I'm actually gonna do a first it. I do a

641
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:56,759
Speaker 1: best bet every night on the podcast, and I've been

642
00:34:56,840 --> 00:34:59,440
Speaker 1: hitting at a pretty darn good clip thanks to the

643
00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 1: chiefs covering. I know you've said this a few times now. Yes,

644
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:07,560
Speaker 1: I like to brag about out. Sorry, but I got

645
00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:10,160
Speaker 1: nothing on baseball. I haven't paid as much attention to it.

646
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:13,840
Speaker 1: And edit, I gotta be honest. This like regional bubble

647
00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:17,880
Speaker 1: set up the sixteen teams. This is a unique postseason.

648
00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:19,799
Speaker 1: I want to get in your head to find out

649
00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:23,440
Speaker 1: how you are approaching, uh, this opening round of the

650
00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:26,520
Speaker 1: baseball playoffs. So I look at it in a couple

651
00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:29,640
Speaker 1: of ways. Number One, there was a time when, yes,

652
00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:32,760
Speaker 1: the Major League Baseball postseason is an absolute crap shoot.

653
00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:35,759
Speaker 1: You see random teams that have no business winning the

654
00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:39,400
Speaker 1: World Series being there at the end of October, Teams

655
00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:42,120
Speaker 1: that were slightly above five in the regular season just

656
00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:44,959
Speaker 1: getting hot and then winning the whole thing. So, yes,

657
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:47,480
Speaker 1: it can be a bit of a crapshoot. And what

658
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:50,600
Speaker 1: makes matters worse is that you have three game series

659
00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:53,680
Speaker 1: to start out the postseason just so we can get

660
00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:55,879
Speaker 1: done by the end of October. And I think that

661
00:35:56,120 --> 00:35:58,280
Speaker 1: is going to make things a little bit more volable.

662
00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:02,719
Speaker 1: I think it perhaps puts your favorites like the Dodgers

663
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:06,920
Speaker 1: and the Yankees, UH in greater peril just because I mean,

664
00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 1: how many times do the best teams in baseball lose

665
00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:12,200
Speaker 1: a three game series. It happens all the time. It's

666
00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:14,759
Speaker 1: not like a five or seven game series where you

667
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:17,279
Speaker 1: you rely on pitching, you rely on hitting. Something is

668
00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:19,719
Speaker 1: going to pull through to where you trust what will

669
00:36:19,760 --> 00:36:22,640
Speaker 1: happen in the longer series. So yeah, I I don't

670
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:25,879
Speaker 1: think any one team is necessarily should be UH an

671
00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 1: overwhelming favorite. But at the same time, what also makes

672
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:32,600
Speaker 1: this interesting is that I've never bought into, say, home

673
00:36:32,680 --> 00:36:35,400
Speaker 1: field advantage in baseball, and the slightest it's not like

674
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:38,760
Speaker 1: say basketball, where you have communication may be affected. In football,

675
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:42,800
Speaker 1: you may have inherent referee bias that favors the home team.

676
00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:45,319
Speaker 1: In baseball, you really don't have any of that, And

677
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:49,120
Speaker 1: I think it's it's just further exacerbated that. Yes, the

678
00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:52,000
Speaker 1: regional bubbles, Okay, home teams make it that, but then

679
00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:55,600
Speaker 1: you're going to neutral sites anyway. I almost view baseball

680
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:59,360
Speaker 1: as being neutral sighted games, so to speak. So there's

681
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:01,680
Speaker 1: some things that I think matter, but other things that

682
00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:04,239
Speaker 1: may very well be over exaggerated. It's okay, So let's

683
00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:08,239
Speaker 1: start with the regional site idea. Okay, Um, one, I

684
00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:10,799
Speaker 1: don't think many people assume the Padres would be in

685
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:14,680
Speaker 1: the postseason. Here we are Padres in the postseason. Do

686
00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:17,960
Speaker 1: they have an edge since the bubble? Correct me if

687
00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:19,799
Speaker 1: I'm wrong. I mean, they're gonna be sleeping in their

688
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:25,279
Speaker 1: own houses, whereas other team, the Cardinals, are not. I

689
00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:28,319
Speaker 1: don't necessarily think so. I mean I like the Padres

690
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:30,960
Speaker 1: for other reasons. I think certainly they're they're more than

691
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:34,560
Speaker 1: capable of winning this whole thing, um, you know, especially

692
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:37,239
Speaker 1: because of the youth that they have on this team.

693
00:37:37,280 --> 00:37:40,640
Speaker 1: Fer Nato Satis Jr. Top two percent in baseball and

694
00:37:40,680 --> 00:37:44,440
Speaker 1: barrel percentage top one percent and exit below, Will Myers

695
00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:47,480
Speaker 1: great expected sling percentage, Drink Cronin worrth is outstanding. There

696
00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:49,440
Speaker 1: are a lot of guys on this team that I

697
00:37:49,480 --> 00:37:51,920
Speaker 1: really do like with this ball club. The fact that

698
00:37:51,960 --> 00:37:54,120
Speaker 1: they're sleeping in their own beds for the first little bit,

699
00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:56,839
Speaker 1: and then maybe they don't have to travel as far

700
00:37:57,560 --> 00:38:00,560
Speaker 1: compared with the other teams. I don't buy that too

701
00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:03,480
Speaker 1: much in terms of this process, because I think everybody

702
00:38:03,560 --> 00:38:06,200
Speaker 1: is sort of dealing with it themselves, and certainly you've

703
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 1: seen players and teams in the past, not just in baseball,

704
00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:11,880
Speaker 1: but in other sports where being at home can be

705
00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:15,000
Speaker 1: a disadvantage because you have more distractions, more things you

706
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:18,880
Speaker 1: have to worry about. Sometimes it's that sort of inherent

707
00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:22,480
Speaker 1: leadership that says, Okay, block out all of your other tasks,

708
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:25,120
Speaker 1: block out all of your commitments, and just focus on

709
00:38:25,160 --> 00:38:26,960
Speaker 1: this one thing you have to do, which is win

710
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:29,760
Speaker 1: this baseball game. Sometimes it's better to be far away

711
00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:32,479
Speaker 1: for that. Yeah, how about the pitching. Do you would

712
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:35,279
Speaker 1: you give an advantage to teams who had an edge

713
00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 1: in the bullpen given the no days off three game

714
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:43,160
Speaker 1: series or the starting pitching uh in a short series

715
00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:46,800
Speaker 1: like this where I would assume, you know, Shane Bieber

716
00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:50,279
Speaker 1: is gonna open things for the Indians, and you're you're

717
00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:52,239
Speaker 1: not just gonna use him once and that's gonna be it.

718
00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:54,520
Speaker 1: He's probably gonna be eligible if there is a game three.

719
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:58,920
Speaker 1: Any idea how that will work here? Well? In general

720
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:03,160
Speaker 1: for post seasons, not this one necessarily, but in seasons past,

721
00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:07,120
Speaker 1: I tend to weigh bullpen war bullpenny r a a

722
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:09,600
Speaker 1: little bit more than I do say in the regular season.

723
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:11,440
Speaker 1: It's one of the reasons why last year I love

724
00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:14,719
Speaker 1: the Tampa Bay Rays. That bullpen was absolutely unbelievable. And

725
00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:17,960
Speaker 1: it's still good this year. And normally I look at

726
00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:19,879
Speaker 1: that and go, okay, that will probably mean a little

727
00:39:19,880 --> 00:39:23,160
Speaker 1: bit more down the stretch. But what makes this interesting

728
00:39:23,239 --> 00:39:25,760
Speaker 1: this year is that, yes, you have these three game series,

729
00:39:25,960 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 1: and certainly pitching matters no matter the situation. I look

730
00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:32,879
Speaker 1: at the Division Series the next round as being what's

731
00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:35,640
Speaker 1: really critical in terms of bullpen play, because you have

732
00:39:35,800 --> 00:39:38,840
Speaker 1: five games in the same place and there are no

733
00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:41,560
Speaker 1: days off. There, no travel days, no rest days, nothing

734
00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:45,040
Speaker 1: like that, and so whomever starts game one of this

735
00:39:45,160 --> 00:39:48,719
Speaker 1: series will probably start Game five on short rest if

736
00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:52,239
Speaker 1: that series goes to five games. So to me, I

737
00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:55,440
Speaker 1: look at this and go, what matters here? Bullpen matters,

738
00:39:55,560 --> 00:40:00,360
Speaker 1: But then also your hitters if they can basically work

739
00:40:00,480 --> 00:40:03,080
Speaker 1: other pictures as it were, So can you work counts?

740
00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:06,560
Speaker 1: Can you get deep into counts with your opposing pitching?

741
00:40:06,640 --> 00:40:10,399
Speaker 1: So to me, yeah, bullpen matters, but it's hitters who

742
00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:14,040
Speaker 1: can force a picture to throw additional pitches, and then

743
00:40:14,080 --> 00:40:16,960
Speaker 1: you get deeper into those bullpens and then really test

744
00:40:17,000 --> 00:40:20,480
Speaker 1: a manager's ability to figure out who's available, who's not available,

745
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:23,040
Speaker 1: who can handle righty lefty matchups. I think those are

746
00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:24,520
Speaker 1: the teams that I think are gonna have a bit

747
00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:28,560
Speaker 1: a greater advantage here. Okay, before we get to actionable picks,

748
00:40:28,840 --> 00:40:30,560
Speaker 1: we've got some teams who have not been here in

749
00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:33,480
Speaker 1: a while. Padres White Sox, I mean the Marlins in

750
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:37,400
Speaker 1: their first postseason since two thousand and three. Um, and

751
00:40:37,640 --> 00:40:41,719
Speaker 1: I don't have There really isn't a quantifiable angle here.

752
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:44,920
Speaker 1: But does experience, which is very generic, does that matter

753
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:48,840
Speaker 1: at all to you here? I think experience matters only

754
00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:51,799
Speaker 1: in so far as if you, let's say, you know,

755
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:55,239
Speaker 1: spin the roulette wheel enough times and you're trying to

756
00:40:55,280 --> 00:40:58,319
Speaker 1: get just the one number right, Well, what's the best

757
00:40:58,400 --> 00:41:00,799
Speaker 1: way to guarantee that you'll get that one right by

758
00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:04,080
Speaker 1: spending it more often? So I look at certain teams,

759
00:41:04,080 --> 00:41:08,040
Speaker 1: like say the Atlanta Braves. They're they're making the postseason,

760
00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:10,799
Speaker 1: they're getting there enough times, they're winning the division, and

761
00:41:10,880 --> 00:41:14,520
Speaker 1: it's not necessarily the experience of that because this is unusual,

762
00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:16,880
Speaker 1: having a three game series and a five game series.

763
00:41:17,160 --> 00:41:19,439
Speaker 1: I I don't know if experience is gonna matter there.

764
00:41:19,480 --> 00:41:22,160
Speaker 1: It's a little bit ambiguous to me, but the fact

765
00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 1: that you're just getting there enough times, like the Nationals

766
00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:27,160
Speaker 1: last year, they were getting to the postseason. They just

767
00:41:27,440 --> 00:41:29,360
Speaker 1: couldn't string it all together, and then all of a

768
00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:31,960
Speaker 1: sudden they did. I wouldn't be surprised if the winner

769
00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:35,040
Speaker 1: this year is someone who is constantly making the postseason,

770
00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:37,480
Speaker 1: not getting all the way, but then ultimately they do.

771
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:40,000
Speaker 1: So let's start with one of those teams. How about

772
00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:43,240
Speaker 1: in the National League, the number one seed, the Dodgers. Uh,

773
00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:45,680
Speaker 1: you know, as a new guy out here in l

774
00:41:45,760 --> 00:41:48,400
Speaker 1: A for four years, I will say, I mean, Dodgers

775
00:41:48,400 --> 00:41:51,399
Speaker 1: fans are just on edge all the time. As soon

776
00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:55,680
Speaker 1: as October hits waiting for the postseason meltdown ed? Is

777
00:41:55,840 --> 00:41:58,080
Speaker 1: I mean, is this the year the Dodgers breakthrough? There?

778
00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:01,320
Speaker 1: I mean they are heavy favorites here. They are heavy favorites.

779
00:42:01,440 --> 00:42:04,120
Speaker 1: And like I said before, I I am nervous about

780
00:42:04,160 --> 00:42:07,719
Speaker 1: heavy favorites in general, because a three game series naturally

781
00:42:07,760 --> 00:42:10,320
Speaker 1: makes the entire process a little bit more volnable. However,

782
00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:13,560
Speaker 1: if you look at some advanced models in terms of

783
00:42:13,960 --> 00:42:16,520
Speaker 1: putting a probability on the Dodgers chances of winning the

784
00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:19,080
Speaker 1: World Series, it's about a one in three. I think.

785
00:42:19,120 --> 00:42:22,080
Speaker 1: I think that's about the consensus as far as that's concerned.

786
00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:25,399
Speaker 1: And if you look at say odds like implied probability.

787
00:42:25,760 --> 00:42:28,880
Speaker 1: It's it's more like a chance. And so there's actually

788
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:32,520
Speaker 1: value in going chalk here, taking the Dodgers, and then

789
00:42:32,560 --> 00:42:35,120
Speaker 1: you look at the hitting and actually break down, uh,

790
00:42:35,160 --> 00:42:37,719
Speaker 1: you know, the roster itself, and there are a lot

791
00:42:37,719 --> 00:42:40,720
Speaker 1: of things to like Will Smith, Corey, Seeger Mookie Betts.

792
00:42:40,920 --> 00:42:43,400
Speaker 1: All of these guys had waited runs, created plus of

793
00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:47,640
Speaker 1: one thirty or better exit velo hard hit percentage. All

794
00:42:47,680 --> 00:42:49,920
Speaker 1: of these guys are good one through nine. And I

795
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:52,759
Speaker 1: understand having a lot of division penance without much else

796
00:42:52,800 --> 00:42:55,719
Speaker 1: to show for it, but again, you make it enough

797
00:42:55,760 --> 00:42:58,920
Speaker 1: times and eventually you break through. I mean, there's a

798
00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:01,600
Speaker 1: reason why Dodgers ends were so upset about the Astros

799
00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:05,280
Speaker 1: controversy involving trash cans because they know, boy, it wouldn't

800
00:43:05,320 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 1: take that much just to get over the hump. And

801
00:43:07,680 --> 00:43:10,000
Speaker 1: this is just another example of that. Yes, there are

802
00:43:10,040 --> 00:43:12,399
Speaker 1: other good teams that can very you can very well

803
00:43:12,400 --> 00:43:14,960
Speaker 1: win the World Series, but you get there enough times.

804
00:43:15,080 --> 00:43:18,080
Speaker 1: The starting pitching is obviously dominant for l A and

805
00:43:18,600 --> 00:43:22,200
Speaker 1: I don't see a problem going chalk here. Um. So

806
00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:24,760
Speaker 1: so you, I mean, I'm assuming you have any future

807
00:43:24,840 --> 00:43:27,439
Speaker 1: plays on the Dodgers, or if not the Dodgers, give

808
00:43:27,480 --> 00:43:30,440
Speaker 1: me a sleeper here, someone who you think the numbers

809
00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:32,839
Speaker 1: say may have a chance to break through and make

810
00:43:32,840 --> 00:43:36,400
Speaker 1: a run. So I've got two teams here in particular,

811
00:43:36,440 --> 00:43:38,319
Speaker 1: they are actually both out of the National League that

812
00:43:38,360 --> 00:43:40,279
Speaker 1: I think can make a run. One is sort of

813
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:43,160
Speaker 1: a middle dog, and that I have an enormous dog.

814
00:43:43,640 --> 00:43:45,640
Speaker 1: So I'll start with my middle one, and that would

815
00:43:45,640 --> 00:43:48,719
Speaker 1: be the Atlanta Braves. So what I did was I

816
00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:52,080
Speaker 1: looked at expected batting average UH this year, in the

817
00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:53,640
Speaker 1: last few years. And I don't want to go too

818
00:43:53,640 --> 00:43:56,359
Speaker 1: far back because I think the data is not as

819
00:43:56,440 --> 00:43:59,040
Speaker 1: as clean as perhaps it should be. But in terms

820
00:43:59,040 --> 00:44:03,680
Speaker 1: of measuring exit below and launch angle and runners speed,

821
00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:06,239
Speaker 1: the data should be pretty sound by this point. So

822
00:44:06,600 --> 00:44:09,400
Speaker 1: I look at expected batting average among all teams over

823
00:44:09,440 --> 00:44:12,440
Speaker 1: the last few years, and the winner of the World Series,

824
00:44:12,719 --> 00:44:16,280
Speaker 1: and usually the World Series participants are in the top

825
00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:18,239
Speaker 1: five as far as that's concerned. That's what we saw

826
00:44:18,320 --> 00:44:20,839
Speaker 1: last year with the Astros and the Nationals. They were

827
00:44:20,840 --> 00:44:23,280
Speaker 1: in the top five in terms of expecting that batting average.

828
00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:25,640
Speaker 1: So the four teams that are in the top four

829
00:44:25,920 --> 00:44:29,920
Speaker 1: in the stat padres Dodgers, Braves and Yankees. And in

830
00:44:30,040 --> 00:44:34,640
Speaker 1: terms of the biggest payout that belongs to Atlanta, Ronald Acuna,

831
00:44:34,920 --> 00:44:38,239
Speaker 1: he's amazing. Austin Riley in a short series. You know,

832
00:44:38,480 --> 00:44:40,200
Speaker 1: the injury may be a bit of a concern there.

833
00:44:40,239 --> 00:44:44,160
Speaker 1: But Max Freed, the starting pitcher, is absolutely outstanding. Ian

834
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:48,440
Speaker 1: Anderson Young but a powerful strikeout monster. Bullpen ranks ninth

835
00:44:48,440 --> 00:44:52,200
Speaker 1: and fangraphs war It's not great in terms of strikeout numbers,

836
00:44:52,200 --> 00:44:55,520
Speaker 1: but they will limit any damage. Uh. Freddie Freeman, solid

837
00:44:55,520 --> 00:44:59,760
Speaker 1: ISO hitting numbers, great point discipline as well. Barcelo Zuna

838
00:44:59,800 --> 00:45:02,000
Speaker 1: dan to be swansor high offensive Wars. There are a

839
00:45:02,000 --> 00:45:04,440
Speaker 1: lot of guys to like here, and they're getting to

840
00:45:04,480 --> 00:45:07,480
Speaker 1: the postseason enough times to where maybe this is finally

841
00:45:07,520 --> 00:45:10,560
Speaker 1: the time they break through. Okay, so Braves, now you

842
00:45:10,600 --> 00:45:12,840
Speaker 1: didn't mention the raise the number one seed in the

843
00:45:12,880 --> 00:45:17,560
Speaker 1: A l um does your model not like them? In

844
00:45:17,719 --> 00:45:21,040
Speaker 1: terms of relief pitching that they're great, no doubt about it.

845
00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:23,719
Speaker 1: And I think if I'm looking at just basic probability

846
00:45:23,719 --> 00:45:26,319
Speaker 1: of winning the World Series, yeah, I think the Rays

847
00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:28,239
Speaker 1: should be up there. And you know, for all the

848
00:45:28,280 --> 00:45:31,400
Speaker 1: reasons that I've mentioned, Uh, in terms of pitching, starting

849
00:45:31,520 --> 00:45:34,120
Speaker 1: and relief pitching. The problem with me and the Rays,

850
00:45:34,520 --> 00:45:38,160
Speaker 1: part of it is pay out, because I think Vegas

851
00:45:38,239 --> 00:45:41,879
Speaker 1: is telling us that the Rays should be a rather

852
00:45:41,960 --> 00:45:45,640
Speaker 1: significant favorite, and my overall probability is perhaps a little

853
00:45:45,640 --> 00:45:47,960
Speaker 1: bit lower than say, what the payout is going to be.

854
00:45:48,000 --> 00:45:50,719
Speaker 1: So because of that, I'm not a big fan. Also too,

855
00:45:50,920 --> 00:45:53,800
Speaker 1: when you look at expecting expect batting averages said I

856
00:45:53,840 --> 00:45:57,560
Speaker 1: referenced earlier or second worst in baseball, even though w

857
00:45:57,680 --> 00:46:00,360
Speaker 1: RC plus was near the top of the American League

858
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:02,719
Speaker 1: because of guys like Brandon Low, Kevin cure Meyer, and

859
00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:06,160
Speaker 1: William Adams. This may be an offense that falls back

860
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:10,200
Speaker 1: down to reality because of the raw power that maybe

861
00:46:10,200 --> 00:46:13,320
Speaker 1: they don't exhibit as much as you would like, even

862
00:46:13,360 --> 00:46:16,920
Speaker 1: though their overall offense certainly did well in terms of

863
00:46:16,920 --> 00:46:20,040
Speaker 1: basic box score numbers. I just don't think the offense

864
00:46:20,440 --> 00:46:23,239
Speaker 1: is good enough for me to feel comfortable about them

865
00:46:23,239 --> 00:46:26,240
Speaker 1: making it. So, is there any value and say taking

866
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:29,479
Speaker 1: the Blue Jays to shock them in the first round?

867
00:46:29,520 --> 00:46:32,960
Speaker 1: I mean if they get Game one, uh, you know, instantly,

868
00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:35,440
Speaker 1: like you said, this short series, who knows what can happen?

869
00:46:35,840 --> 00:46:38,280
Speaker 1: Um any chance of the Blue Jays pulled that offer.

870
00:46:39,520 --> 00:46:41,319
Speaker 1: The Blue Jays have been pretty good in terms of

871
00:46:41,600 --> 00:46:44,600
Speaker 1: forcing Pictures to throw more pitches. I think that is

872
00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:47,839
Speaker 1: certainly an advantage there. But other than that, I still

873
00:46:47,840 --> 00:46:50,359
Speaker 1: feel like the Rays can win that first series because again,

874
00:46:50,360 --> 00:46:52,680
Speaker 1: the bullpen is so deep, so many arms they can

875
00:46:52,760 --> 00:46:55,680
Speaker 1: utilize to to sort of keep the Blue Jays on

876
00:46:55,719 --> 00:46:58,040
Speaker 1: their heels, so to speak. But at the same time,

877
00:46:58,320 --> 00:47:00,759
Speaker 1: after that, I have some reok serns about the Rays

878
00:47:00,800 --> 00:47:03,720
Speaker 1: doing much more. Uh, if you had to find best

879
00:47:03,920 --> 00:47:07,680
Speaker 1: value in a World Series matchup, are there two teams

880
00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:10,680
Speaker 1: that you think? Um, I don't. I mean, I'm sure,

881
00:47:10,680 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 1: I'm assuming a lot of people want to see Yankees Dodgers,

882
00:47:14,040 --> 00:47:16,640
Speaker 1: But the reality is, I don't know. I've I've I

883
00:47:16,719 --> 00:47:18,640
Speaker 1: talked to someone today. They like the A's a lot

884
00:47:18,719 --> 00:47:21,239
Speaker 1: to come out of the A l Um, is there

885
00:47:21,239 --> 00:47:23,719
Speaker 1: a matchup that you think you can see happening? Well,

886
00:47:23,760 --> 00:47:27,080
Speaker 1: let me take you certainly. Well, let me say one

887
00:47:27,120 --> 00:47:29,520
Speaker 1: thing about the A's though, in terms of why I'm

888
00:47:29,560 --> 00:47:32,520
Speaker 1: a little bit barish about them. And I know we've

889
00:47:33,360 --> 00:47:36,400
Speaker 1: we've witnessed this sort of sixty game schedule and wondered, okay,

890
00:47:36,520 --> 00:47:40,279
Speaker 1: how representative of the sixty game schedule is what we

891
00:47:40,400 --> 00:47:43,480
Speaker 1: witnessed in terms of overall talent, and to me, I

892
00:47:43,520 --> 00:47:46,600
Speaker 1: think we have enough information to know who's good and

893
00:47:46,680 --> 00:47:49,399
Speaker 1: not and not as good. I know a hundred sixty

894
00:47:49,440 --> 00:47:51,520
Speaker 1: two games would help in terms of having more data,

895
00:47:51,600 --> 00:47:54,520
Speaker 1: more games, more things to look at. But if you

896
00:47:54,560 --> 00:47:57,320
Speaker 1: look at the history of baseball, those first sixty games

897
00:47:57,320 --> 00:48:01,080
Speaker 1: of any season is usually pretty represent seditive of what

898
00:48:01,160 --> 00:48:03,400
Speaker 1: we will see at the end of the regular season.

899
00:48:03,480 --> 00:48:06,880
Speaker 1: So if you performed well in this year, then chances

900
00:48:06,880 --> 00:48:09,319
Speaker 1: are you are a pretty darn good baseball team. So

901
00:48:09,920 --> 00:48:12,480
Speaker 1: that's one thing. The other thing, too, though, is when

902
00:48:12,520 --> 00:48:15,320
Speaker 1: you look at the worst divisions in all of baseball,

903
00:48:15,600 --> 00:48:18,440
Speaker 1: it is clearly the American League West. I know, the

904
00:48:18,480 --> 00:48:20,719
Speaker 1: Central was probably the team that the division that I

905
00:48:20,719 --> 00:48:23,360
Speaker 1: thought would be the worst coming in because of the Tigers,

906
00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:26,040
Speaker 1: because of the Royals. But when you look at run differential,

907
00:48:26,560 --> 00:48:30,520
Speaker 1: seven of the worst teams are Three of the seven

908
00:48:30,520 --> 00:48:33,319
Speaker 1: worst teams in baseball in terms of run differential, we're

909
00:48:33,480 --> 00:48:36,840
Speaker 1: in the American League West, the Rangers, the Mariners, and

910
00:48:36,920 --> 00:48:40,400
Speaker 1: the Angels. Why is this important, Well, it certainly inflates

911
00:48:40,440 --> 00:48:45,319
Speaker 1: the overall numbers and abilities of the a's of the Astros,

912
00:48:45,680 --> 00:48:49,480
Speaker 1: and in all seriousness, because the Als played the n

913
00:48:49,600 --> 00:48:52,600
Speaker 1: L West, it could exaggerate the numbers for the Dodgers

914
00:48:52,600 --> 00:48:54,640
Speaker 1: and the Padres as well. And so when I look

915
00:48:54,680 --> 00:48:58,160
Speaker 1: at the A's, you know, pass postseason experience doesn't matter

916
00:48:58,160 --> 00:49:00,680
Speaker 1: to me as much for them. But I do think

917
00:49:00,760 --> 00:49:03,120
Speaker 1: those overall numbers that we may look at are a

918
00:49:03,160 --> 00:49:05,680
Speaker 1: little bit exaggerated because I think strength of schedule mental

919
00:49:05,840 --> 00:49:08,239
Speaker 1: matters just a little bit more here, all right, So

920
00:49:08,360 --> 00:49:12,480
Speaker 1: the listener says, I want to throw some pizza money

921
00:49:13,160 --> 00:49:17,839
Speaker 1: on one baseball team to win the World Series, and

922
00:49:17,880 --> 00:49:19,840
Speaker 1: I really want to put it on the Padres. And

923
00:49:21,200 --> 00:49:23,960
Speaker 1: you know, I put fifty fifty dollars. Maybe it's a

924
00:49:23,960 --> 00:49:26,400
Speaker 1: little bit expensive of a pizza, but fifty bucks on

925
00:49:26,440 --> 00:49:30,799
Speaker 1: the Padres or fifty fifty bucks on the red listen

926
00:49:31,120 --> 00:49:33,719
Speaker 1: l A prices, I mean two extra large with a

927
00:49:33,800 --> 00:49:39,280
Speaker 1: tip fifty Um, Indians, can you buy the Astros? Give

928
00:49:39,320 --> 00:49:43,320
Speaker 1: me give me an actionable long shot ish to UH

929
00:49:43,360 --> 00:49:46,640
Speaker 1: to win the World Series. So my my biggest dog

930
00:49:46,760 --> 00:49:50,280
Speaker 1: that I absolutely love is one team you have not mentioned.

931
00:49:50,600 --> 00:49:57,520
Speaker 1: It's the Cincinnati Reds. I am crazy about the Reds.

932
00:49:57,520 --> 00:50:03,480
Speaker 1: Plus d Trevor Bauers, Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo. It constituted

933
00:50:03,520 --> 00:50:06,200
Speaker 1: the best starting pitching war in all of baseball. Four

934
00:50:06,239 --> 00:50:08,839
Speaker 1: of the five teams in the National League Central made

935
00:50:08,920 --> 00:50:12,360
Speaker 1: the postseason. That was a gauntlet that they went through

936
00:50:12,600 --> 00:50:15,560
Speaker 1: and they did very well and looked more than respectable

937
00:50:15,600 --> 00:50:18,799
Speaker 1: as far as that's concerned. Uh, relievers look to be good.

938
00:50:19,040 --> 00:50:23,200
Speaker 1: Raizel Iglesias is swinging strike rate close to Archie Bradley

939
00:50:23,239 --> 00:50:26,239
Speaker 1: has a fit below three point four something. Uh. You know.

940
00:50:26,400 --> 00:50:28,840
Speaker 1: Fan Grafts brought up that that's important. Like I mentioned,

941
00:50:29,280 --> 00:50:32,560
Speaker 1: game one starter will probably have to pitch on short

942
00:50:32,640 --> 00:50:35,480
Speaker 1: rest for that game. Five lineups that can work pitchers

943
00:50:35,480 --> 00:50:38,400
Speaker 1: could be a little bit more important. And hitting, like

944
00:50:38,440 --> 00:50:40,640
Speaker 1: I mentioned before, if you can find a bunch of

945
00:50:40,680 --> 00:50:43,960
Speaker 1: hitters who can really work pitchers, forced them to throw

946
00:50:44,000 --> 00:50:47,120
Speaker 1: more pitches, exhaust that bullpen a little bit sooner than

947
00:50:47,160 --> 00:50:50,040
Speaker 1: the opposition would like than, you really have something. And

948
00:50:50,120 --> 00:50:52,480
Speaker 1: there are a few lineups that can do that better

949
00:50:52,960 --> 00:50:57,399
Speaker 1: than what the Reds have. Nick Castiliano's Joey Votto show,

950
00:50:57,400 --> 00:51:00,759
Speaker 1: Go Akiyama, Mike Mustakas, they can do those things. The

951
00:51:00,840 --> 00:51:02,759
Speaker 1: Reds did a lot of good stuff in the off

952
00:51:02,840 --> 00:51:06,400
Speaker 1: season to put themselves in this when now mode and

953
00:51:06,440 --> 00:51:09,680
Speaker 1: it could very well work out in short order. I

954
00:51:09,840 --> 00:51:12,200
Speaker 1: love it, ed. I will be putting some money on

955
00:51:12,280 --> 00:51:16,160
Speaker 1: the Reds too to win the World Series. Uh this morning?

956
00:51:16,239 --> 00:51:18,680
Speaker 1: Certainly all right? You can follow ed on Twitter at

957
00:51:18,880 --> 00:51:22,600
Speaker 1: ed with sports, and you may be besieged by questions

958
00:51:22,680 --> 00:51:24,920
Speaker 1: about building a model. I'm telling you, like, this is

959
00:51:24,960 --> 00:51:27,439
Speaker 1: where the actions at. I mean, it's gonna certainly be here.

960
00:51:27,680 --> 00:51:29,680
Speaker 1: I don't know if I'm smart enough to build a model,

961
00:51:29,960 --> 00:51:33,120
Speaker 1: but I definitely have been doing some practicing coding with

962
00:51:33,160 --> 00:51:37,200
Speaker 1: my my fourth grade kid, and um a little I'm

963
00:51:37,280 --> 00:51:39,480
Speaker 1: learning scraping and fun stuff like that, so I can

964
00:51:39,520 --> 00:51:42,640
Speaker 1: build a website, but building a model, and that's next level.

965
00:51:42,680 --> 00:51:45,800
Speaker 1: I don't quite think I'm there yet. Don't you worry.

966
00:51:46,000 --> 00:51:48,720
Speaker 1: Don't you worry? As as the professor in this duo,

967
00:51:49,320 --> 00:51:51,359
Speaker 1: don't don't you worry in terms of, you know, making

968
00:51:51,360 --> 00:51:53,000
Speaker 1: sure you can get not to mention too. And an

969
00:51:53,120 --> 00:51:57,280
Speaker 1: amazing how much younger and younger kids are are becoming

970
00:51:57,280 --> 00:52:01,080
Speaker 1: in terms of the ability to code, design websites, design apps,

971
00:52:01,080 --> 00:52:03,600
Speaker 1: all that stuff. I mean, it's amazing that, like in college,

972
00:52:03,640 --> 00:52:06,000
Speaker 1: if you could do these things. You were quite brilliant.

973
00:52:06,160 --> 00:52:08,480
Speaker 1: Now you need to be in fourth grade, third grade,

974
00:52:08,760 --> 00:52:11,600
Speaker 1: just to get started to make sure you can stay competitive.

975
00:52:11,680 --> 00:52:14,360
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm also old. The Internet wasn't even around

976
00:52:14,360 --> 00:52:16,800
Speaker 1: when I was in elementary school. You're obviously a little

977
00:52:16,800 --> 00:52:19,440
Speaker 1: younger a but alright ed, great stuff. Thanks a lot.

978
00:52:19,480 --> 00:52:22,239
Speaker 1: Hopefully the listeners can win some money based on your

979
00:52:22,280 --> 00:52:25,879
Speaker 1: baseball picks and enjoy the postseason. Thank you so much,

980
00:52:25,920 --> 00:52:26,440
Speaker 1: appreciate you