WEBVTT - George Conway & Ian Bremmer

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<v Speaker 1>Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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<v Speaker 1>where we discussed the top political headlines with some of

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<v Speaker 1>today's best minds, and a court following has revealed the

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<v Speaker 1>Justice Department has released less than one percent of the

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<v Speaker 1>Epstein files. We have such a great show for you today.

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<v Speaker 1>George Conway stops by to talk about his run for Congress.

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<v Speaker 1>Then we'll talk to the Eurasia Groups Ian Brema about

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<v Speaker 1>the destabilization Trump has brought to the world stage. But

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<v Speaker 1>first the news.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, Mai. We have a new congressional landscape because

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of weird things happen since we last taped.

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<v Speaker 2>We have Marjorie Taylor Green gone or see won't be

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<v Speaker 2>filled till at least March. We have Congressman Doug LaMalfa

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<v Speaker 2>who passed away, and Indiana Rep. Jim Baird and his

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<v Speaker 2>wife were injured in a car accident that may prevent

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<v Speaker 2>him from voting.

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<v Speaker 1>By the way, in a month, a Democrat will take

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<v Speaker 1>the Mikey Cheryl seat. So Johnson's majority to eighteen to

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<v Speaker 1>two thirteen.

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<v Speaker 2>Leaves a lot of room for a Thomas Massey to

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<v Speaker 2>swing around his anti Trump feelings? Are they feelings?

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<v Speaker 1>Look Mike Johnson got this job, he got this seat,

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<v Speaker 1>He got to be Speaker of the House because Donald

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<v Speaker 1>Trump wanted a yes man. He wanted someone who would

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<v Speaker 1>do whatever he wanted. And while that is good for Trump,

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<v Speaker 1>or at least it was, he didn't put in there

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<v Speaker 1>someone who knew how to do it, like Tom Emmer

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<v Speaker 1>or even Kevin McCarthy, who is no rocket scientist. Even

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<v Speaker 1>Kevin McCarthy would have been a much better pick for

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<v Speaker 1>this job. But you have Mike Johnson, who is not

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<v Speaker 1>good at this job, and whenever he has trouble, he

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<v Speaker 1>sends everyone home. So what's happened? At least I think

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<v Speaker 1>Republicans in Congress are a little bit different than Democrats.

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<v Speaker 1>Republicans in Congress are pretty demoralized, and that's why they

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<v Speaker 1>keep leaving Congress. And part of the way to have

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<v Speaker 1>a majority is to have a lot of people there.

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<v Speaker 1>When people start leaving, you start losing people and your

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<v Speaker 1>majority shrinks. So Mike Johnson right now has a majority

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<v Speaker 1>that is two eighteen to two thirteen, and that is

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<v Speaker 1>when you have people like Thomas Massey, and they're not

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<v Speaker 1>a governorable majority. And that is why there are two

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<v Speaker 1>different bills that have passed that are bills that Trump

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't want. And you're going to see more of that

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<v Speaker 1>because you've got discharge petitions and you've got a House

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<v Speaker 1>that the Republicans control but really in name only, and

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<v Speaker 1>so who knows what's happening behind the scenes, but we

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<v Speaker 1>hope that Hikeem is out there trying to flip some

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<v Speaker 1>members of Congress.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, this is a perilous time for Mike Johnson's rule.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah. Who could have seen it coming? Everyone?

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<v Speaker 2>Yep, you know, these things can flip fast. As we

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<v Speaker 2>saw last year the Democrats lost a couple different members

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<v Speaker 2>due to death. So who knows where this plays out.

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<v Speaker 1>It's good to not have really really old members of conqueror.

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<v Speaker 2>Yep, you'll be shocked to hear that this situation in Venezuela,

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<v Speaker 2>it's beginning to look a lot like Iraq. Trump says

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<v Speaker 2>the US government may reimburse soil companies for rebuilding Venezuela's infrastructure.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, that is not what anyone wants. There's a guest

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<v Speaker 1>on this episode, Ian who talks about how he thinks

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<v Speaker 1>this could go and I think, and this is a

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<v Speaker 1>really good point. Wired has a really good article about

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<v Speaker 1>this too, which is history shows us that the US

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<v Speaker 1>is really good at coups, but they tend to be

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<v Speaker 1>not so good at all the stuff that happens after coups.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think that's a really really really good point,

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<v Speaker 1>Like it's easy to take a leader down. It is

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<v Speaker 1>much harder, as we saw most recently in Afghanistan, but

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<v Speaker 1>we've seen in other places to install a leader to

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<v Speaker 1>follow up with that. And that's where we are right now,

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<v Speaker 1>is there's not a plan and they're you know, Trump

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<v Speaker 1>ran on end foreign wars, and so here we find

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<v Speaker 1>ourselves in a completely you know, a situation where Trump

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<v Speaker 1>is you know, it's the you break it, you bought

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<v Speaker 1>it school of diplomacy. It's a pottery barn meet to

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<v Speaker 1>the Middle East, and that's where we are. Fun stuff

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<v Speaker 1>could be a problem.

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<v Speaker 2>So some of the more shocking news in a week

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<v Speaker 2>of shocking news was that Tim Walls decided not to

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<v Speaker 2>run for another election as governor of Minnesota after some

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<v Speaker 2>very very i would say, not good politics, very unfair

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<v Speaker 2>play propaganda disguised as news, particularly this young lad. The

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<v Speaker 2>right wing is latched onto Nick Shirley, who did a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of bullshit journalism. He went to places pretended they

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<v Speaker 2>weren't open, blocked out signs that showed they weren't open.

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<v Speaker 2>And what we're seeing as estimates that more people watched

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<v Speaker 2>this than all three news networks combined.

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<v Speaker 1>Brought times like one hundred, right, I.

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<v Speaker 2>Wouldn't say times one hundred, but times a lot. It

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<v Speaker 2>was one of the most seismic. I even just tallied

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<v Speaker 2>up numbers on YouTube and I got to twenty five million.

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<v Speaker 1>So basically, what is happening here is that more than

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<v Speaker 1>two years ago there was a case of corruption, fraud,

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<v Speaker 1>thievery of public funds in Minnesota the Biden DOJ, which

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<v Speaker 1>I have a lot of qualms about and a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of complaints about, but they did in fact prosecute I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know ten twelve thirty people. I think a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of people. People went to jail, et cetera, et cetera.

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<v Speaker 1>Fast forward Nick Shurly. There was a lot of reporting

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<v Speaker 1>about it at the time. There was ten pieces in

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<v Speaker 1>the New York Times. Fast forward Nick Shirley and his

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<v Speaker 1>merry band of propagandas I was going to say, moronic billionaires,

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<v Speaker 1>and that crew found that they decided that none of

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<v Speaker 1>this had ever been covered and that they were breaking news.

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<v Speaker 1>The point is there's been punishment, people have gone to jail,

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<v Speaker 1>there has been investigations, there has been criminal charges, but

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<v Speaker 1>it does not matter because these people are discovering for

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<v Speaker 1>the first time. So basically the problem is this, when

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<v Speaker 1>you are running for governor for a third term, that

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<v Speaker 1>third term situation is complicated. We saw this with Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>in New York when he ran for mayor. I mean

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<v Speaker 1>it was different with Bloomberg because he had to change

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<v Speaker 1>the rules to run for a third term. But governor's

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<v Speaker 1>races are weird and the third one changes the context

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit. And now with Klobashar in there, she

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<v Speaker 1>really has a better shot. I think she's a real

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<v Speaker 1>national candidate. And I think that probably what happened here

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<v Speaker 1>is that Wall saw these polls and saw that he

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<v Speaker 1>probably was not going to win, and so here we are.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's disappointing. I mean, I have always been

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<v Speaker 1>a fan of his, but I also think, like, what's

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<v Speaker 1>so interesting about Minnesota is they have such a good

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<v Speaker 1>bench of Democratic candidates and like we will have on

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<v Speaker 1>this podcast soon, Peggy Flan again, she's running for Senate.

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<v Speaker 1>I think she's probably the first Lieutenant governor of Minnesota

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<v Speaker 1>who is a Native woman. That's very cool. So there

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<v Speaker 1>are a lot of talented people and the Minnesota Democratic Party.

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<v Speaker 1>I'll be interested to see now because this will mean

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<v Speaker 1>if it works right, it means that Clomentum becomes governor.

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<v Speaker 1>If she wins, she will then put someone in that

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<v Speaker 1>Senate seat, and you'll have Peggy Flann again running for

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<v Speaker 1>the other Senate seatret because Tina Smith is not going

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<v Speaker 1>to run again, So you will have two new senators

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<v Speaker 1>from Minnesota. Very interesting. I'll be curious to see who

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<v Speaker 1>Clomentum picks.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and I think just think we should say the

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<v Speaker 2>other really disgusting part of the story is that Nick

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<v Speaker 2>Shirley and his propagandist friends spread that Governor Walls helped

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<v Speaker 2>get his dear friend Melissa Wortman killed, and then President

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<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump's that as well.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's a lot of horrible stuff, but the bright

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<v Speaker 1>spot is that there's a lot of talent in Minnesota.

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<v Speaker 2>So another thing that horrified many people as we walked

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<v Speaker 2>into this new year is that the Trump administration is

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<v Speaker 2>making deep cuts in the child vaccine schedule.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, not only are they making deep cuts, they're making

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<v Speaker 1>really deep cuts. So, I mean, this is just absolute

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<v Speaker 1>bad shitty and in fact, this is probably one of

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<v Speaker 1>the dumbest. So now they're cutting rotavirus, COVID nineteen, influenza, meningitis,

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<v Speaker 1>hepatitis A and B. It is absolutely insane, insane, insane, insane.

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<v Speaker 1>Children will die, It is absolutely pointless. Kids are going

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<v Speaker 1>to die, Adults are going to die. It's absolutely fucking unconsionable.

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<v Speaker 1>We have exciting news over at our YouTube channel. The

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<v Speaker 1>second episode from our Project twenty twenty nine series is

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<v Speaker 1>out now. It's a reimagining where we examine what went

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<v Speaker 1>wrong with democrats approach to politics and how we can

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<v Speaker 1>correct it and deliver changes to help people's lives. The

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<v Speaker 1>first episode dove into the very sexy topic of campaign

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<v Speaker 1>finance reform, and our second episode deals with an even

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<v Speaker 1>sexier topic, antitrust and regulation. We look at how antitrust

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<v Speaker 1>and regulation can protect American citizens and make America thrive

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<v Speaker 1>in an era of rampant corruption and predatory crony capitalism.

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<v Speaker 1>We talk to the smartest names in the field like

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<v Speaker 1>Lena Kahan, Elvero Bedoya, Elizabeth Wilkins, and Doha Mechi. Republicans

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<v Speaker 1>were prepared for when they got the levers of power.

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<v Speaker 1>We need democrats to be too, So please head over

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<v Speaker 1>to YouTube and search Molli John Fast Project twenty twenty nine,

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<v Speaker 1>or go to the Fast Politics YouTube channel and find

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<v Speaker 1>it there and help us spread the word. George Conway

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<v Speaker 1>is a candidate in the Democratic primary in New York's

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<v Speaker 1>twelfth congressional district. George Conway, welcome.

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<v Speaker 3>Thank you for having me. I know so I have

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<v Speaker 3>me when some guest cancels on you, I know that.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, that's why I'm having you today. Was my other

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<v Speaker 1>guest who was running for New York twelve canceled, so

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<v Speaker 1>I thought I'd get you. You're you're a fill in,

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<v Speaker 1>So tell me what you're up to.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I had I went to get some coffee this morning.

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<v Speaker 1>That was it.

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<v Speaker 3>It was great, and I had at me.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, I want you to talk about why you think

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<v Speaker 1>why you would be the person to impeach President Trump.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I'm highly motivated, as you know. I mean we

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<v Speaker 3>are at a crossroads. I mean we really are threatened here.

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<v Speaker 3>We're threatened by a potential loss of democracy, a loss

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<v Speaker 3>of a rule of law. When we see it every day,

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<v Speaker 3>constitutional government and it's got to stop. And we need

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<v Speaker 3>people who are going to meet in Congress who are

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<v Speaker 3>not going to hold back we were basically just call

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<v Speaker 3>it out as they see it. And we need lawyers

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<v Speaker 3>in particular because the two things that we need to

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<v Speaker 3>do with this guy, first of all, is to hold

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<v Speaker 3>him accountable all his people accountable, which involves investigating and impeaching.

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<v Speaker 3>And the other thing is we have to do things

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<v Speaker 3>to make sure. We have to pass laws to make

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<v Speaker 3>sure it never ever happens again. I mean, there's so

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<v Speaker 3>many laws that you can think of, just off the top,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, protecting the Justice Department from political interference. The

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<v Speaker 3>twenty fifth Amendment is one of my favorites. You know,

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<v Speaker 3>there was a bill that Nancy Pelosi introduced in twenty twenty.

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<v Speaker 3>I think Jamie Raskin had previously introduced it. That you know,

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<v Speaker 3>under the twenty fifth Amendment, Section four, Congress can designate

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<v Speaker 3>a body other than the Lex Bittle Alyxplittle Cabinet to

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<v Speaker 3>figure out whether the president is mentally competent or physically competent.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, that's got to be done because we can't

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<v Speaker 3>have what we have now again all sorts of things.

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<v Speaker 3>The War Powers Act obviously we just learned this week.

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<v Speaker 3>Really we need to figure out a way his strength

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<v Speaker 3>make it more festive. Yeah, there's just so many, many things.

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<v Speaker 3>And the thing that all of this is, yeah, it's Trump, Trump, Trump.

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<v Speaker 3>And some people are going to say, well, what about

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<v Speaker 3>everything else? And I don't get these democrats. I mean,

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<v Speaker 3>I love so many Democrats get this. But there are

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<v Speaker 3>a few who and they mean well, but they say, well,

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<v Speaker 3>we want to talk about Trump. We want to talk

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<v Speaker 3>about Trump too much. We got to talk about the

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<v Speaker 3>kitchen table issues as if they were separate, and they're

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<v Speaker 3>not separate. They're completely intertwined. Because we have a president

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<v Speaker 3>we don't give a shit about anybody other than himself.

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<v Speaker 3>He's running the government like a mob operation. He's running

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<v Speaker 3>for his own benefit. He's running the government. We have

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<v Speaker 3>government of the Boss, by the boss, and for the

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<v Speaker 3>Boss and all of his friends. And that's the reason why,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, he's focused on on shit like the arm

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<v Speaker 3>invested at the Kennedy Center. Renaming the Kennedy Center is

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<v Speaker 3>nice jed from Qatar. His uh, I mean, his his

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<v Speaker 3>ballroom real. He'll throw his unconstitutional legal third in all

0:13:29.120 --> 0:13:33.200
<v Speaker 3>year old and you know he doesn't care about anything

0:13:33.240 --> 0:13:35.520
<v Speaker 3>that's happening to real people. He doesn't care about using

0:13:35.559 --> 0:13:37.520
<v Speaker 3>the government to help people. He doesn't care.

0:13:37.360 --> 0:13:41.560
<v Speaker 1>About Yes, okay, so I want you to explain to

0:13:41.640 --> 0:13:45.079
<v Speaker 1>us why you're the person So like Jamie Raskin is

0:13:45.120 --> 0:13:49.200
<v Speaker 1>a great example, because he is a lawyer. He has

0:13:49.240 --> 0:13:51.280
<v Speaker 1>proven to be a really good member of the House,

0:13:51.520 --> 0:13:56.640
<v Speaker 1>right and one of the reasons wingman right, and you come.

0:13:56.880 --> 0:13:59.320
<v Speaker 1>I want you to talk about your experience at Walktau

0:13:59.559 --> 0:14:04.120
<v Speaker 1>and why that is relevant to what you want to do.

0:14:04.920 --> 0:14:07.040
<v Speaker 4>If he can elect all the.

0:14:06.960 --> 0:14:09.439
<v Speaker 3>Things that you need to know how to do, you

0:14:09.520 --> 0:14:12.800
<v Speaker 3>can learn how to do as a lawyer litigation. You

0:14:12.920 --> 0:14:15.120
<v Speaker 3>learned how to cross examine witnesses, and I'm a great

0:14:15.200 --> 0:14:17.800
<v Speaker 3>cross examiner. I mean, this is gonna be great for hearings.

0:14:17.800 --> 0:14:20.360
<v Speaker 3>I know how to investigate. I know how to litigate.

0:14:20.400 --> 0:14:22.840
<v Speaker 3>I know how to push all these buttons. And then

0:14:22.840 --> 0:14:27.680
<v Speaker 3>of course the drafting and the knowledge of constitutional all

0:14:27.840 --> 0:14:30.800
<v Speaker 3>that thing, all of that, this is all lawyery. We

0:14:30.840 --> 0:14:33.760
<v Speaker 3>need good lawyers in Congress right now more than ever.

0:14:34.400 --> 0:14:37.480
<v Speaker 3>And you know, I mean, Jamie, Jamie Raskin needs all

0:14:37.520 --> 0:14:40.120
<v Speaker 3>the help you can get on that committee. And I'm

0:14:40.160 --> 0:14:42.720
<v Speaker 3>you know, I want to be there and I want

0:14:42.720 --> 0:14:46.000
<v Speaker 3>to help, and I think I'm the best person suited

0:14:46.120 --> 0:14:46.440
<v Speaker 3>for that.

0:14:46.800 --> 0:14:52.240
<v Speaker 1>Part of Trump is this psychological game, right like, And

0:14:52.280 --> 0:14:58.520
<v Speaker 1>we saw this really clearly with Zoran. If he's easily played,

0:14:59.200 --> 0:15:03.280
<v Speaker 1>he is easily So talk us through how that relates

0:15:03.320 --> 0:15:06.040
<v Speaker 1>to your congressional Well. I think the thing is, he's

0:15:06.160 --> 0:15:09.840
<v Speaker 1>easily to distract and to engage. I think one of

0:15:09.880 --> 0:15:12.400
<v Speaker 1>the things I do well with him is to point

0:15:12.440 --> 0:15:17.760
<v Speaker 1>out his psychological disorders and and make him manifest them.

0:15:18.040 --> 0:15:18.240
<v Speaker 4>Right.

0:15:18.320 --> 0:15:20.880
<v Speaker 3>And this is the thing about this is this is

0:15:21.040 --> 0:15:23.480
<v Speaker 3>central to who he is, and central to why he

0:15:23.520 --> 0:15:25.880
<v Speaker 3>can't govern it, and central to why he is a

0:15:25.960 --> 0:15:29.600
<v Speaker 3>danger to the world. He's a narcissist. He's a malignant narcissist.

0:15:29.640 --> 0:15:31.520
<v Speaker 3>I've been talking about that, I write, I wrote an

0:15:31.520 --> 0:15:35.240
<v Speaker 3>eleven thousand word piece in seven years ago about that

0:15:35.320 --> 0:15:38.400
<v Speaker 3>in the Atlantic. You know again, he cares only about himself.

0:15:38.480 --> 0:15:41.520
<v Speaker 3>He only cares about his ego. All everything he's doing

0:15:41.640 --> 0:15:43.960
<v Speaker 3>is to gratify his ego, to make him feel strong,

0:15:44.520 --> 0:15:48.000
<v Speaker 3>to make him, you know, to seek retribution against others.

0:15:48.400 --> 0:15:52.120
<v Speaker 3>He can be easily distracted into showing how bad he is.

0:15:52.160 --> 0:15:53.880
<v Speaker 3>And I think we need to draw him out on it.

0:15:54.480 --> 0:15:56.400
<v Speaker 3>And I think that's what you know, could have happened

0:15:56.400 --> 0:15:58.840
<v Speaker 3>more in the twenty four campaign. I think we're going

0:15:59.000 --> 0:16:00.640
<v Speaker 3>it's going to happen here is well.

0:16:00.560 --> 0:16:05.360
<v Speaker 1>Don Trump has kidnapped a president of Venezuela and his wife.

0:16:05.600 --> 0:16:10.120
<v Speaker 1>He has brought them to New York to face drug

0:16:10.160 --> 0:16:13.440
<v Speaker 1>trafficking charges. Because Donald Trump is very worried about drugs,

0:16:13.520 --> 0:16:18.240
<v Speaker 1>except sometimes when he's partnering people who what the fuck

0:16:18.440 --> 0:16:20.760
<v Speaker 1>is going on here? What do you think is going

0:16:20.800 --> 0:16:21.240
<v Speaker 1>on here?

0:16:21.480 --> 0:16:25.040
<v Speaker 3>Well, look, I mean all of the stated reasons, I

0:16:25.080 --> 0:16:28.160
<v Speaker 3>have nothing to do with any figure. Right, he's talking

0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:32.760
<v Speaker 3>about the drug running, the indictment in the Southern District

0:16:32.800 --> 0:16:37.040
<v Speaker 3>of New York for money laundering and drug running. Like

0:16:37.160 --> 0:16:41.080
<v Speaker 3>he pardoned the Honduran president let him go. So it's

0:16:41.080 --> 0:16:45.040
<v Speaker 3>not really about that. It's about ego, and it's about oil.

0:16:45.120 --> 0:16:49.960
<v Speaker 3>It's about conquest, it's about power, it's about all of that.

0:16:50.280 --> 0:16:53.600
<v Speaker 3>And that's why they're talking now about Greenland. Okay, where's

0:16:53.640 --> 0:16:57.240
<v Speaker 3>the dictator in Greenland? This is all just a giant

0:16:57.720 --> 0:17:01.480
<v Speaker 3>power play. He actually should like Maduro. Maduro is a

0:17:01.520 --> 0:17:05.800
<v Speaker 3>strong man, Maduro criminal Maduro is just like him.

0:17:05.640 --> 0:17:09.200
<v Speaker 1>And Maduro has a great relationship with his buddy Putin

0:17:09.640 --> 0:17:10.520
<v Speaker 1>does buddy Putin.

0:17:10.600 --> 0:17:13.520
<v Speaker 3>They're all you know, they're all the same, and you

0:17:13.560 --> 0:17:17.479
<v Speaker 3>know it's not it's not about anyway helping the United

0:17:17.480 --> 0:17:20.000
<v Speaker 3>States in any way, shape or form. I mean, they've

0:17:20.000 --> 0:17:23.360
<v Speaker 3>been lying about Venezuela for a long time, talking about fentanyl.

0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:26.320
<v Speaker 3>There's no fentanyl that comes from there. The whole thing

0:17:26.520 --> 0:17:29.679
<v Speaker 3>is elite lee. The boat strikes against people. They may

0:17:29.680 --> 0:17:31.359
<v Speaker 3>have been drug running, but they weren't drug running in

0:17:31.400 --> 0:17:34.480
<v Speaker 3>the United States, and they weren't drug running fentanyl they had.

0:17:34.560 --> 0:17:36.919
<v Speaker 3>You know, those weren't even war crimes because they were

0:17:36.960 --> 0:17:40.320
<v Speaker 3>just straight out crimes. And now you know Mduro is

0:17:40.359 --> 0:17:43.240
<v Speaker 3>going to be guilty. He's a bad guy like Trump,

0:17:43.440 --> 0:17:46.760
<v Speaker 3>but that's got nothing to do with why he's here.

0:17:47.000 --> 0:17:48.879
<v Speaker 3>It's got nothing to do with why he's here. And

0:17:49.440 --> 0:17:53.600
<v Speaker 3>the danger of the dangerous pressor that's being set by

0:17:53.600 --> 0:17:56.080
<v Speaker 3>having the United States is going to take somebody out

0:17:56.760 --> 0:17:58.720
<v Speaker 3>when it's not in their our national winterest being we

0:17:58.760 --> 0:18:01.280
<v Speaker 3>have no basis in international law. That's going to come

0:18:01.320 --> 0:18:03.919
<v Speaker 3>back to bite us because the next time some you know,

0:18:04.080 --> 0:18:09.040
<v Speaker 3>we one of somebody we like somewhere that happens to them.

0:18:09.480 --> 0:18:11.480
<v Speaker 3>I mean, who are we going to be this to object?

0:18:12.080 --> 0:18:12.320
<v Speaker 4>Well?

0:18:12.359 --> 0:18:15.600
<v Speaker 1>And it also I mean there there's a nightmare scenario

0:18:15.680 --> 0:18:19.720
<v Speaker 1>where Putin is like okay Ukraine, where she she is

0:18:19.760 --> 0:18:20.920
<v Speaker 1>like okay Taiwan.

0:18:21.320 --> 0:18:22.919
<v Speaker 3>We have to be clean as a whistle. We have

0:18:23.000 --> 0:18:25.639
<v Speaker 3>to stand up for what is right because we you know,

0:18:26.040 --> 0:18:28.919
<v Speaker 3>the turn the worm can turn on us too. And

0:18:28.960 --> 0:18:30.800
<v Speaker 3>the thing about it too, iss like what what are

0:18:30.840 --> 0:18:33.760
<v Speaker 3>we doing? We we are never good at regime change, right,

0:18:33.840 --> 0:18:36.600
<v Speaker 3>We are never good at it, Like you can't create

0:18:37.040 --> 0:18:41.440
<v Speaker 3>a new government that doesn't have support within its borders,

0:18:41.800 --> 0:18:44.119
<v Speaker 3>and we're you know, we're we're not going to be

0:18:44.160 --> 0:18:46.359
<v Speaker 3>able to do that. In fact, we basically take this

0:18:46.400 --> 0:18:48.480
<v Speaker 3>guy out and all his cronies are in charge now.

0:18:48.600 --> 0:18:50.440
<v Speaker 3>So what's what was what was the point of this?

0:18:50.920 --> 0:18:54.840
<v Speaker 1>You know Trump, you know Kelly An, you know almost

0:18:54.920 --> 0:18:57.280
<v Speaker 1>all these people who work in this White House.

0:18:57.680 --> 0:19:01.800
<v Speaker 5>So what do you think the real point was? I

0:19:01.800 --> 0:19:04.159
<v Speaker 5>think the real point was a show of strength. And

0:19:04.200 --> 0:19:06.480
<v Speaker 5>I do think there's something about the oil. He's obsessed

0:19:06.520 --> 0:19:08.280
<v Speaker 5>with that oil. He's talked about that oil.

0:19:08.359 --> 0:19:10.679
<v Speaker 3>He said, we should have never could have taken the

0:19:11.000 --> 0:19:12.919
<v Speaker 3>we should have taken the oil from Iraq.

0:19:13.520 --> 0:19:16.920
<v Speaker 1>I think any of it was to distract from Epstein.

0:19:17.080 --> 0:19:18.160
<v Speaker 1>Like people are saying.

0:19:18.359 --> 0:19:21.600
<v Speaker 3>Sure, sure, I mean you know anything he's doing, he

0:19:22.000 --> 0:19:25.679
<v Speaker 3>you know, he's become more and more manic because of

0:19:25.720 --> 0:19:30.640
<v Speaker 3>the Epstein thing. Sure, absolutely, that's part of it. He's

0:19:30.640 --> 0:19:35.120
<v Speaker 3>been panicking about the Epstein thing, so more manick he becomes.

0:19:35.160 --> 0:19:37.480
<v Speaker 3>It's that's part of I think that's part of the

0:19:37.520 --> 0:19:41.520
<v Speaker 3>Epstein fall out. But why why what do you mean why.

0:19:41.640 --> 0:19:43.320
<v Speaker 1>Why is he panicked about Epstein?

0:19:43.560 --> 0:19:44.320
<v Speaker 3>What's in the file?

0:19:44.440 --> 0:19:44.640
<v Speaker 4>Some ian?

0:19:44.680 --> 0:19:46.439
<v Speaker 3>We still haven't seen what's in the files. We have

0:19:46.480 --> 0:19:49.400
<v Speaker 3>seen lots of reactions. I mean, he knows, he knows

0:19:49.400 --> 0:19:53.479
<v Speaker 3>what he knows, he's got something to hide. I mean

0:19:53.520 --> 0:19:56.720
<v Speaker 3>when he's talking about when you know that Marjorie Taylor Green,

0:19:57.480 --> 0:19:58.320
<v Speaker 3>did you see that? Wor?

0:19:58.680 --> 0:19:58.840
<v Speaker 5>Right?

0:19:58.920 --> 0:20:01.920
<v Speaker 1>There are people? Are you gonna hurt my friends? Friends?

0:20:02.040 --> 0:20:07.240
<v Speaker 3>Donald Trump doesn't have friends, right, Donald Trump care about friends.

0:20:07.320 --> 0:20:10.080
<v Speaker 3>He's not trying to help anyone. There's only one person

0:20:10.119 --> 0:20:13.719
<v Speaker 3>Donald Trump cares about helping, and who's that Donald Trump?

0:20:14.640 --> 0:20:18.640
<v Speaker 3>So you can infer from that that he is concerned

0:20:18.680 --> 0:20:22.680
<v Speaker 3>about something in the files, and he's concerned that has

0:20:22.720 --> 0:20:26.600
<v Speaker 3>something to do with him. What that is no. I

0:20:26.600 --> 0:20:29.040
<v Speaker 3>think we've I think we've seen enough. I think the

0:20:29.080 --> 0:20:32.040
<v Speaker 3>birthday card we've seen enough. Right, Well, he why about

0:20:32.040 --> 0:20:34.639
<v Speaker 3>the birthday card. It's the signature matches the signature of

0:20:34.680 --> 0:20:41.280
<v Speaker 3>everything he's ever said. No, the United Kingdom had an ambassador,

0:20:41.440 --> 0:20:46.720
<v Speaker 3>a very prominent labor politician, Lady or Mandelsson, who had

0:20:46.720 --> 0:20:51.280
<v Speaker 3>a completely nondescript birthday card in that book, didn't have

0:20:51.320 --> 0:20:52.560
<v Speaker 3>a picture of a naked woman.

0:20:52.640 --> 0:20:53.320
<v Speaker 1>But guy was gay.

0:20:53.440 --> 0:20:58.640
<v Speaker 6>In fact, I met at dinner with them, okay, and

0:20:59.600 --> 0:21:00.919
<v Speaker 6>they out back.

0:21:01.480 --> 0:21:02.000
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:21:02.320 --> 0:21:04.800
<v Speaker 3>Right, it's like the guy didn't do anything compared to

0:21:04.800 --> 0:21:08.240
<v Speaker 3>what Trump did, right, you know.

0:21:08.359 --> 0:21:13.800
<v Speaker 1>That's it's so let's talk through a little bit about

0:21:13.920 --> 0:21:17.600
<v Speaker 1>what you know right now. The House of Representatives has

0:21:17.680 --> 0:21:22.879
<v Speaker 1>it was just a member, a Republican who died in office,

0:21:22.920 --> 0:21:25.680
<v Speaker 1>sixty seven, sixty five years old. Not that all died

0:21:25.720 --> 0:21:31.840
<v Speaker 1>in office. So now the makeup is that they basically

0:21:31.840 --> 0:21:35.960
<v Speaker 1>Republicans have a one seat majority, and you have Thomas Massey,

0:21:36.440 --> 0:21:38.600
<v Speaker 1>who is already like if.

0:21:38.480 --> 0:21:43.000
<v Speaker 3>You're lumbering off the reservation every day, if you were.

0:21:42.880 --> 0:21:47.320
<v Speaker 1>In the House and Marjorie Taylor Green resigned today or yesterday,

0:21:48.040 --> 0:21:50.879
<v Speaker 1>if you are in the House, right now would you

0:21:50.960 --> 0:21:53.800
<v Speaker 1>be making an effort to try to flip more Republican votes?

0:21:53.840 --> 0:21:57.800
<v Speaker 1>I mean, did you Why do you think that's not happening.

0:21:59.359 --> 0:22:01.760
<v Speaker 3>I would hope that it's happening. We don't know that

0:22:01.880 --> 0:22:04.040
<v Speaker 3>it's not happening, because this is not the kind of

0:22:04.119 --> 0:22:07.919
<v Speaker 3>thing that's going to be happening out on Constant Tomorrow

0:22:08.000 --> 0:22:11.360
<v Speaker 3>Avenue where everybody can see it. I mean, I don't

0:22:11.400 --> 0:22:13.160
<v Speaker 3>know what the what the what the back rooms are

0:22:13.200 --> 0:22:16.520
<v Speaker 3>like there, I don't know who talks to whom, But

0:22:17.680 --> 0:22:21.320
<v Speaker 3>these people are starting to get it. They are starting

0:22:21.359 --> 0:22:24.359
<v Speaker 3>to see the end of the Trump rope. The wheels,

0:22:24.440 --> 0:22:26.879
<v Speaker 3>you know, pick the metaphor you like, the wheels are

0:22:26.880 --> 0:22:29.879
<v Speaker 3>falling off the bus. And and you see more and

0:22:29.920 --> 0:22:33.960
<v Speaker 3>more Republicans not running. They're scared, they know, they know

0:22:34.080 --> 0:22:38.200
<v Speaker 3>the game is up. That being said, we can't take

0:22:38.240 --> 0:22:40.600
<v Speaker 3>any of this for granted. We have to keep pushing

0:22:40.680 --> 0:22:44.000
<v Speaker 3>until he's gone, because the worst thing you can do

0:22:44.160 --> 0:22:45.760
<v Speaker 3>is kind of let up. And that's kind of what

0:22:45.920 --> 0:22:49.439
<v Speaker 3>happened after the twenty twenty election. Everybody thought he was

0:22:49.480 --> 0:22:52.000
<v Speaker 3>going to go away. Merrick Garland thought he was going.

0:22:51.960 --> 0:22:52.480
<v Speaker 2>To go away.

0:22:52.760 --> 0:22:56.080
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, Americ Garland, what a disappointment. Do you will you

0:22:56.200 --> 0:23:00.480
<v Speaker 1>make a case for why do you are you did?

0:23:00.720 --> 0:23:06.200
<v Speaker 1>Why there needs to be a like a focus on

0:23:06.200 --> 0:23:08.000
<v Speaker 1>one of the things that happened in twenty twenty was

0:23:08.040 --> 0:23:12.520
<v Speaker 1>Democrats decided they needed to protect norms and institutions, and

0:23:12.760 --> 0:23:17.239
<v Speaker 1>Republicans decided they needed to win, and Republicans won, And

0:23:17.320 --> 0:23:19.159
<v Speaker 1>here we are, right.

0:23:19.520 --> 0:23:22.920
<v Speaker 3>Well, the answer is the way you win is by

0:23:22.960 --> 0:23:25.240
<v Speaker 3>showing these people are bad and the showing that they're

0:23:25.359 --> 0:23:28.960
<v Speaker 3>self interested in showing that they're evil, all right, And

0:23:29.160 --> 0:23:30.160
<v Speaker 3>that's how you win.

0:23:30.400 --> 0:23:30.560
<v Speaker 5>That.

0:23:30.600 --> 0:23:38.480
<v Speaker 3>You cannot just you cannot extract their their malfeasance and

0:23:38.560 --> 0:23:45.440
<v Speaker 3>their depravity from the reasons why normal people should be elected,

0:23:46.000 --> 0:23:49.000
<v Speaker 3>because that's what it's all about. That's that's what's causing

0:23:49.080 --> 0:23:53.400
<v Speaker 3>all the pay that's what's causing the high prices. That right,

0:23:53.520 --> 0:23:58.159
<v Speaker 3>high prices is because of tariffs and whatnot and people

0:23:58.240 --> 0:24:04.040
<v Speaker 3>losing ACA subsidies. Like this is all because these people

0:24:04.200 --> 0:24:07.560
<v Speaker 3>are depraved and evil and they don't give a fuck

0:24:07.680 --> 0:24:11.080
<v Speaker 3>about anybody other than themselves. And so you have to

0:24:11.200 --> 0:24:13.720
<v Speaker 3>talk about that all at once, and you have to

0:24:13.760 --> 0:24:16.639
<v Speaker 3>be blunt about what's happening. It can't be afraid to

0:24:16.680 --> 0:24:20.679
<v Speaker 3>say this guy is psycho. He can't be afraid to

0:24:20.720 --> 0:24:26.359
<v Speaker 3>say that that he's a malignant, narcissist, associopath and an

0:24:26.480 --> 0:24:30.760
<v Speaker 3>evil person. He's somebody that, you know, any normal person

0:24:31.200 --> 0:24:34.280
<v Speaker 3>has all. He has all the characteristics you absolutely would

0:24:34.280 --> 0:24:37.440
<v Speaker 3>tell your children not to emulate. Has no you know,

0:24:37.920 --> 0:24:41.479
<v Speaker 3>can't tell the truth, has no empathy, has you know,

0:24:41.960 --> 0:24:45.560
<v Speaker 3>all does nothing but set Avengage is completely self involved.

0:24:46.560 --> 0:24:50.720
<v Speaker 3>He and his and takes for what belongs to others.

0:24:52.000 --> 0:24:57.159
<v Speaker 3>You cannot you can't separate all that for why it

0:24:57.240 --> 0:25:00.840
<v Speaker 3>is that things aren't going the way people want to go.

0:25:01.280 --> 0:25:04.560
<v Speaker 3>It's all of a piece and you can't hold back,

0:25:04.600 --> 0:25:07.199
<v Speaker 3>and you can't hope that they just go away. You

0:25:07.240 --> 0:25:10.239
<v Speaker 3>can't hope that that, oh, the wheels are falling up,

0:25:10.280 --> 0:25:14.000
<v Speaker 3>the bus, people are getting office. He's showing weakness because

0:25:14.040 --> 0:25:17.080
<v Speaker 3>if you do that, I mean, you act complacently. You

0:25:17.119 --> 0:25:18.440
<v Speaker 3>know he's going to be back.

0:25:18.840 --> 0:25:22.000
<v Speaker 1>May Garland, I think Mayor Garland. I mean all you

0:25:22.040 --> 0:25:26.320
<v Speaker 1>need to say is Mary Garland, Mary Garland, this is

0:25:26.359 --> 0:25:29.119
<v Speaker 1>not this is not what I think you're trying to

0:25:29.160 --> 0:25:33.359
<v Speaker 1>say is this is not a moment for This is

0:25:33.400 --> 0:25:36.600
<v Speaker 1>not a moment for for norms and institution protection. This

0:25:36.720 --> 0:25:39.160
<v Speaker 1>is a moment for for fixing.

0:25:39.680 --> 0:25:43.040
<v Speaker 6>Well that's right now illegal. The way you s for

0:25:43.440 --> 0:25:48.560
<v Speaker 6>norms is you fight, Okay, you fight, and you can't

0:25:48.760 --> 0:25:53.240
<v Speaker 6>do the things that you normally do, conduct politics as

0:25:53.359 --> 0:25:57.880
<v Speaker 6>usual because that you know, you're we're fighting for our

0:25:57.920 --> 0:26:00.639
<v Speaker 6>lives here, we're fighting for our lives. We're fighting for

0:26:00.720 --> 0:26:04.960
<v Speaker 6>the rule or fighting for constitutional democracy, and these aren't

0:26:05.040 --> 0:26:08.160
<v Speaker 6>normal times, and you can't. You know, we need people

0:26:08.240 --> 0:26:10.600
<v Speaker 6>who are going to come in. We don't necessarily want

0:26:10.640 --> 0:26:14.560
<v Speaker 6>to be career politicians. Career politicians. It's like, well, we

0:26:14.560 --> 0:26:15.560
<v Speaker 6>don't want to rock the boat.

0:26:15.560 --> 0:26:16.280
<v Speaker 4>We are going to do this.

0:26:16.320 --> 0:26:18.040
<v Speaker 7>We want to stick to our We want to stick

0:26:18.080 --> 0:26:19.600
<v Speaker 7>to our And you didn't go forward and do that

0:26:19.640 --> 0:26:22.800
<v Speaker 7>and you get elected to the same seat for decades. Right,

0:26:23.960 --> 0:26:28.120
<v Speaker 7>we're going to do We're basically they're not afraid. They're

0:26:28.160 --> 0:26:30.800
<v Speaker 7>not afraid to sort of make ways and take risks.

0:26:31.440 --> 0:26:35.000
<v Speaker 3>And you know, look look at me, right, I'm sixty

0:26:35.040 --> 0:26:39.840
<v Speaker 3>two years old. I never did it will tank you.

0:26:40.800 --> 0:26:47.240
<v Speaker 3>So I never thought seriously about going into politics and

0:26:47.320 --> 0:26:50.200
<v Speaker 3>running for public office until late in the morning or

0:26:50.240 --> 0:26:55.600
<v Speaker 3>November tenth of this year, and when the idea was

0:26:55.720 --> 0:26:59.960
<v Speaker 3>suggested me by somebody and you know, I can't do

0:27:00.400 --> 0:27:02.360
<v Speaker 3>I wouldn't be able to do make a career of it.

0:27:02.920 --> 0:27:05.159
<v Speaker 1>Right, And I think, and I think one of the

0:27:05.200 --> 0:27:08.520
<v Speaker 1>problems we've seen is that there have been too many

0:27:08.920 --> 0:27:11.080
<v Speaker 1>people who go into politics because they can't get a

0:27:11.119 --> 0:27:11.720
<v Speaker 1>better job.

0:27:13.400 --> 0:27:15.840
<v Speaker 3>Well, yeah, I mean, I'm retired, I should be skiing,

0:27:17.000 --> 0:27:18.880
<v Speaker 3>but I don't. I don't disagree with that. I don't,

0:27:18.920 --> 0:27:20.639
<v Speaker 3>but I also don't need to. I don't want to

0:27:20.680 --> 0:27:24.280
<v Speaker 3>be disparag There are a lot of there are some

0:27:24.320 --> 0:27:26.719
<v Speaker 3>great public servants you know, who have spent their lives

0:27:26.760 --> 0:27:28.119
<v Speaker 3>in politics.

0:27:28.160 --> 0:27:30.480
<v Speaker 1>And there are a lot of people you've never fun a.

0:27:30.480 --> 0:27:32.480
<v Speaker 3>Lot of people who you know, there's there's a lot

0:27:32.520 --> 0:27:35.760
<v Speaker 3>of people who you know, they got out of the state,

0:27:35.920 --> 0:27:39.640
<v Speaker 3>some state legislature or somewhere they have trouble getting a job.

0:27:40.040 --> 0:27:44.359
<v Speaker 3>That's absolutely true. We need people who've done things elsewhere,

0:27:45.040 --> 0:27:49.639
<v Speaker 3>who have skills that can be applied to this circumstance,

0:27:49.760 --> 0:27:52.639
<v Speaker 3>this moment. And that's that's my pitch.

0:27:53.000 --> 0:27:56.080
<v Speaker 1>Yes, correct, George Conway, will you come back?

0:27:57.400 --> 0:27:58.520
<v Speaker 3>I will always come back.

0:28:00.760 --> 0:28:04.200
<v Speaker 1>Ian Bremmer is the president of the Eurasia Group. Welcome

0:28:04.280 --> 0:28:05.400
<v Speaker 1>too fast politics.

0:28:05.440 --> 0:28:08.040
<v Speaker 4>Ian, Hey, Molly, Yeah, I've seen you before.

0:28:09.320 --> 0:28:12.320
<v Speaker 1>So there's so much to talk about. I am without words.

0:28:12.680 --> 0:28:17.760
<v Speaker 1>How bad is kidnapping the president of another country and

0:28:17.840 --> 0:28:21.040
<v Speaker 1>his wife and bringing them to New York to stand

0:28:21.119 --> 0:28:22.119
<v Speaker 1>try How bad is it?

0:28:22.200 --> 0:28:22.440
<v Speaker 4>Well?

0:28:22.680 --> 0:28:25.200
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, how destabilizing.

0:28:24.320 --> 0:28:28.480
<v Speaker 8>Is that it's not like invading Ukraine where the president

0:28:28.640 --> 0:28:32.640
<v Speaker 8>was democratically elected and trying to overthrow the country. And

0:28:33.040 --> 0:28:36.399
<v Speaker 8>you know, it's not as if Trump has engaged in

0:28:36.520 --> 0:28:39.600
<v Speaker 8>regime change because he's kept the regime in place and

0:28:39.640 --> 0:28:42.600
<v Speaker 8>he's not sending troops, so it's not like any and

0:28:42.960 --> 0:28:47.400
<v Speaker 8>no American men or women actually died during the military operation.

0:28:47.920 --> 0:28:49.800
<v Speaker 8>So I mean, there's a lot of like, if we

0:28:49.840 --> 0:28:52.480
<v Speaker 8>could just freeze the tape here, and if nothing else

0:28:52.480 --> 0:28:56.520
<v Speaker 8>were to happen, you might be like, oh, okay, splendid

0:28:56.560 --> 0:28:59.160
<v Speaker 8>little activity, right, feels like Grenada.

0:28:59.200 --> 0:29:01.120
<v Speaker 4>But of course it's not that simple.

0:29:01.400 --> 0:29:05.760
<v Speaker 8>It's that the United States now has some level of

0:29:06.280 --> 0:29:08.640
<v Speaker 8>influence on ownership.

0:29:08.120 --> 0:29:09.960
<v Speaker 4>Over what the politics are going to look like.

0:29:10.080 --> 0:29:12.880
<v Speaker 8>And you know, there's a big question of whether a

0:29:12.960 --> 0:29:15.600
<v Speaker 8>regime that is the same as the Maduro regime minus

0:29:15.640 --> 0:29:18.480
<v Speaker 8>Maduro is really going to listen to the United States

0:29:18.840 --> 0:29:21.680
<v Speaker 8>under you know, sort of dint of we will beat

0:29:21.760 --> 0:29:24.320
<v Speaker 8>you up for a long time, and what it means

0:29:24.360 --> 0:29:26.480
<v Speaker 8>if they don't, and how the Americans are going to

0:29:26.520 --> 0:29:28.360
<v Speaker 8>have to continue to respond. So you've kind of put

0:29:28.360 --> 0:29:30.840
<v Speaker 8>that marker in. And there is also the question of

0:29:30.840 --> 0:29:34.880
<v Speaker 8>how Trump is going to respond, not just about an

0:29:34.960 --> 0:29:39.640
<v Speaker 8>individual narco terrorist who should be out of power and

0:29:39.680 --> 0:29:43.960
<v Speaker 8>stole a democratic election and should be in jail, but

0:29:44.160 --> 0:29:46.800
<v Speaker 8>how he's going to now project his power having had

0:29:46.840 --> 0:29:51.000
<v Speaker 8>that win, because he now embraces the Donroe doctrine, and

0:29:51.400 --> 0:29:54.200
<v Speaker 8>there are lots of other places where he can cause

0:29:54.360 --> 0:29:56.440
<v Speaker 8>a lot of damage and he can destroy a lot

0:29:56.480 --> 0:29:57.400
<v Speaker 8>of relationships.

0:29:57.480 --> 0:30:01.080
<v Speaker 1>Right, So I want you to explain to the people

0:30:01.080 --> 0:30:03.240
<v Speaker 1>who are those of the podcasts who do not maybe

0:30:03.320 --> 0:30:09.280
<v Speaker 1>know about the Dunrow doctrine, a newly created doctrine created

0:30:09.280 --> 0:30:12.080
<v Speaker 1>by Donald Trump as a sort of parody of the

0:30:12.160 --> 0:30:16.000
<v Speaker 1>Monroe doctrine, but explain what the sort of the net

0:30:16.040 --> 0:30:16.440
<v Speaker 1>of it is.

0:30:16.680 --> 0:30:18.560
<v Speaker 4>Well, I don't think he thinks it's a parody.

0:30:18.800 --> 0:30:23.080
<v Speaker 8>I think he believes that it is implies that America

0:30:23.160 --> 0:30:26.800
<v Speaker 8>should have to should have a foreign policy priority over

0:30:26.880 --> 0:30:32.560
<v Speaker 8>the political orientation and actions of everybody in its backyard

0:30:32.720 --> 0:30:36.400
<v Speaker 8>as defined by the president. Historically, the Monroe doctrine was

0:30:36.440 --> 0:30:39.520
<v Speaker 8>about the western hemisphere, so it was really about Latin America.

0:30:39.880 --> 0:30:42.720
<v Speaker 4>Today it is more expansive than that.

0:30:42.880 --> 0:30:46.840
<v Speaker 8>Certainly Trump would include Greenland in his discussion of the

0:30:46.920 --> 0:30:50.920
<v Speaker 8>Donroe doctrine. I would also say pragmatically, I would say

0:30:50.960 --> 0:30:55.680
<v Speaker 8>that last year Trump was really focused on tariffs and

0:30:55.720 --> 0:30:58.680
<v Speaker 8>that that was his principal tool to get the outcomes

0:30:58.720 --> 0:31:02.280
<v Speaker 8>he wanted not going to use tariffs as effectively this

0:31:02.400 --> 0:31:05.240
<v Speaker 8>year because he's got problems with the economy, and he's

0:31:05.280 --> 0:31:08.000
<v Speaker 8>got an election coming up, and he was also beaten

0:31:08.040 --> 0:31:10.720
<v Speaker 8>and bloodied by the Chinese and reacting.

0:31:10.280 --> 0:31:11.520
<v Speaker 4>To the tariffs he put on.

0:31:11.640 --> 0:31:15.200
<v Speaker 8>He had the back down, but militarily he has much

0:31:15.280 --> 0:31:19.520
<v Speaker 8>more capacity to act unilaterally without anyone hitting him back.

0:31:19.680 --> 0:31:25.320
<v Speaker 8>And so that combination of my backyard and the military

0:31:25.480 --> 0:31:29.440
<v Speaker 8>stick is what the down Roe doctrine is all about.

0:31:29.600 --> 0:31:32.120
<v Speaker 8>I do think that it is leading a lot of

0:31:32.160 --> 0:31:34.480
<v Speaker 8>countries around the world to say, we don't think we

0:31:34.520 --> 0:31:37.320
<v Speaker 8>can rely on the United States going forward.

0:31:37.560 --> 0:31:39.880
<v Speaker 1>One of the things that I hear from you in

0:31:39.880 --> 0:31:42.720
<v Speaker 1>this moment, which seems really clear, is that it's all

0:31:42.720 --> 0:31:45.160
<v Speaker 1>going to be about the second order effects, the things

0:31:45.200 --> 0:31:47.520
<v Speaker 1>that happen next. Those are going to be the things.

0:31:47.680 --> 0:31:51.040
<v Speaker 1>So Trump is talked to Joe Scarborough to I said,

0:31:51.720 --> 0:31:54.760
<v Speaker 1>you know, very proud of what's happened so far. If

0:31:54.800 --> 0:31:59.120
<v Speaker 1>you went back to Kuwait in the nineteen nineties, after

0:31:59.600 --> 0:32:03.920
<v Speaker 1>the first military action by Bush Senior right in nineteen

0:32:04.000 --> 0:32:07.640
<v Speaker 1>ninety one, actually was a success. It was everything after

0:32:07.720 --> 0:32:08.880
<v Speaker 1>that that was a disaster.

0:32:09.360 --> 0:32:13.320
<v Speaker 9>I would say that that entire Iraqi operation was successful

0:32:13.360 --> 0:32:18.560
<v Speaker 9>because Bush showed restraint, because he didn't actually go ahead

0:32:18.600 --> 0:32:22.240
<v Speaker 9>to overthrow Saddam Hussein and take control of Iraq, even

0:32:22.240 --> 0:32:25.360
<v Speaker 9>though the Kurds felt completely sold out by the Americans

0:32:25.360 --> 0:32:26.000
<v Speaker 9>as a consequence.

0:32:26.000 --> 0:32:27.560
<v Speaker 8>It's not the only time the Kurds have felt sold

0:32:27.560 --> 0:32:31.680
<v Speaker 8>out historically. When I think about Trump, restraint is not

0:32:31.840 --> 0:32:33.440
<v Speaker 8>the first word that comes.

0:32:33.240 --> 0:32:36.600
<v Speaker 1>To my second or third, not usually, not usually.

0:32:36.920 --> 0:32:40.239
<v Speaker 8>So I mean Trump is likely to double down on

0:32:40.280 --> 0:32:42.440
<v Speaker 8>the basis of this just worked well for.

0:32:42.480 --> 0:32:44.080
<v Speaker 4>Me, and it's going to keep working well for me.

0:32:44.120 --> 0:32:46.080
<v Speaker 8>And the funny thing is, because so many people have

0:32:46.160 --> 0:32:48.960
<v Speaker 8>been asking me the last forty eight hours, Molly, They're like, well,

0:32:49.040 --> 0:32:50.960
<v Speaker 8>so is it about the oil, Is it about the drugs?

0:32:51.000 --> 0:32:53.400
<v Speaker 4>Is it about you know, democracy? You know what Macro.

0:32:53.280 --> 0:32:56.160
<v Speaker 1>Rubio does Anyone really think it's about democracy.

0:32:56.520 --> 0:32:59.480
<v Speaker 8>Well, I mean for Marco, I mean absolutely, I mean,

0:32:59.480 --> 0:33:01.840
<v Speaker 8>and for all the Venezuelans in exile, I mean, like

0:33:01.880 --> 0:33:04.000
<v Speaker 8>they really want, like you know, to be able to

0:33:04.040 --> 0:33:04.680
<v Speaker 8>run the country.

0:33:04.800 --> 0:33:07.000
<v Speaker 1>But then they shouldn't have kept the regime a jar.

0:33:07.320 --> 0:33:11.200
<v Speaker 8>Well, I mean even so, like you still wouldn't need

0:33:11.240 --> 0:33:14.240
<v Speaker 8>an actual transition unless you're prepared to like literally send

0:33:14.280 --> 0:33:16.880
<v Speaker 8>a proconsole down with all of the military support.

0:33:16.880 --> 0:33:17.920
<v Speaker 4>And the Americans don't buy that.

0:33:18.040 --> 0:33:20.720
<v Speaker 8>So, like I actually think I think Trump does not

0:33:20.920 --> 0:33:23.640
<v Speaker 8>care about what kind of government there is as long

0:33:23.680 --> 0:33:26.040
<v Speaker 8>as it supports the US. But I think that even

0:33:26.080 --> 0:33:29.640
<v Speaker 8>if you wanted a democracy, which Marco does and Trump

0:33:29.640 --> 0:33:33.080
<v Speaker 8>doesn't care, I think that you would actually work with

0:33:33.160 --> 0:33:35.800
<v Speaker 8>the military first. You wouldn't just go in and blow

0:33:35.840 --> 0:33:37.640
<v Speaker 8>them all up. So the first step was the right

0:33:37.680 --> 0:33:40.560
<v Speaker 8>step in my view, if you were going to go

0:33:40.720 --> 0:33:43.520
<v Speaker 8>about a regime change policy, if that was what you

0:33:43.720 --> 0:33:46.240
<v Speaker 8>wanted to do, People ask me, is it oil?

0:33:46.320 --> 0:33:47.560
<v Speaker 4>Is it drugs? At democracy?

0:33:47.680 --> 0:33:51.800
<v Speaker 8>And the funny thing is it's about removing Maduro. And

0:33:51.840 --> 0:33:54.680
<v Speaker 8>we need to remember that, Like Trump was really angry

0:33:54.720 --> 0:33:58.000
<v Speaker 8>at Maduro. Maduro is dancing and he's making fun of him,

0:33:58.040 --> 0:34:01.200
<v Speaker 8>and he gave him an ultimatum and he asked escalated, escalated,

0:34:01.520 --> 0:34:03.959
<v Speaker 8>And you know, inside the White House you had Steven

0:34:04.040 --> 0:34:07.920
<v Speaker 8>Miller telling Trump, you know, anything would be better than Maduro,

0:34:08.239 --> 0:34:12.879
<v Speaker 8>any outcome, chaos, military dictators, anything would be better Madu.

0:34:13.000 --> 0:34:14.040
<v Speaker 4>We just have to get rid of this guy.

0:34:14.280 --> 0:34:16.799
<v Speaker 8>And Trump has now gotten rid of this guy with

0:34:16.920 --> 0:34:18.400
<v Speaker 8>spectacular success.

0:34:18.560 --> 0:34:21.000
<v Speaker 4>So a big part of what Trump wanted to do

0:34:21.480 --> 0:34:22.920
<v Speaker 4>he has already.

0:34:22.480 --> 0:34:25.680
<v Speaker 1>Done it again. The problem is everything else that.

0:34:25.719 --> 0:34:28.480
<v Speaker 4>He is very likely to take it too far, yes.

0:34:28.239 --> 0:34:30.640
<v Speaker 1>But also even if he doesn't take it too far,

0:34:31.040 --> 0:34:33.879
<v Speaker 1>there's problems there too. I mean, if you look at right,

0:34:34.000 --> 0:34:37.680
<v Speaker 1>I mean, you destabilize a region. You can't now put

0:34:37.719 --> 0:34:38.440
<v Speaker 1>the genie back in.

0:34:38.440 --> 0:34:43.200
<v Speaker 8>The bottle, having removed Maduro, with the military still there

0:34:43.360 --> 0:34:46.800
<v Speaker 8>and weakened a bit and no Americans on the ground.

0:34:47.080 --> 0:34:51.479
<v Speaker 8>If the demands you make of Venezuela are reasonable, and

0:34:52.000 --> 0:34:56.080
<v Speaker 8>you've now got the former vice president acting president who

0:34:56.200 --> 0:35:00.560
<v Speaker 8>is actually more of a pragmatist, and it comes with

0:35:00.680 --> 0:35:05.279
<v Speaker 8>dealing with the private sector, for example, the possibility that

0:35:05.320 --> 0:35:10.000
<v Speaker 8>the Venezuelan economy could start to actually turn around is meaningful.

0:35:10.360 --> 0:35:14.719
<v Speaker 8>I mean Maduro was not jabez Jabez was like democratically elected.

0:35:14.840 --> 0:35:18.520
<v Speaker 8>He was charismatic, he was a revolutionary, cared about the people.

0:35:18.719 --> 0:35:21.600
<v Speaker 4>Maduro was like a thug and a criminal and.

0:35:21.520 --> 0:35:24.680
<v Speaker 1>A drug guy, right, but wasn't part of the economy

0:35:24.760 --> 0:35:27.279
<v Speaker 1>selling oil to Russia and China.

0:35:27.400 --> 0:35:30.239
<v Speaker 8>Did you see Molly that right after the US took

0:35:30.280 --> 0:35:33.200
<v Speaker 8>him out, that a whole bunch of tankers were allowed

0:35:33.239 --> 0:35:36.160
<v Speaker 8>through the blockade by the United States, And that clearly

0:35:36.239 --> 0:35:39.040
<v Speaker 8>was because the US is not trying. Number one, not

0:35:39.120 --> 0:35:40.920
<v Speaker 8>trying to fight with China, so they're going to let

0:35:40.960 --> 0:35:43.680
<v Speaker 8>them continue to export with China. Number two wants to

0:35:43.719 --> 0:35:46.959
<v Speaker 8>show that they're engaging with the Venezuelan government, not trying

0:35:47.000 --> 0:35:50.040
<v Speaker 8>to beat them up economically as long as they behave nicely.

0:35:50.120 --> 0:35:53.480
<v Speaker 8>And number three, the Venezuelans actually don't have any more

0:35:53.480 --> 0:35:56.880
<v Speaker 8>oil storage, so they need to get that oil like

0:35:57.080 --> 0:36:00.279
<v Speaker 8>on the markets or it's going to damage the economy more.

0:36:00.320 --> 0:36:01.680
<v Speaker 8>And if the US is going to try to help

0:36:01.719 --> 0:36:04.000
<v Speaker 8>them rebuild and reinvest, then they don't want it to

0:36:04.000 --> 0:36:06.960
<v Speaker 8>get any worse. So there are legitimate reasons for the

0:36:07.040 --> 0:36:08.240
<v Speaker 8>US to allow that to happen.

0:36:08.520 --> 0:36:12.200
<v Speaker 1>What would be the dream scenario here, they let them rebuild,

0:36:12.520 --> 0:36:15.279
<v Speaker 1>they are able to run themselves they are able to

0:36:15.360 --> 0:36:17.560
<v Speaker 1>have free and fair elections.

0:36:17.160 --> 0:36:21.279
<v Speaker 8>Well, and that you would selectively use some pressure to

0:36:21.400 --> 0:36:25.600
<v Speaker 8>get the opposition that are claimed to be criminals but

0:36:25.680 --> 0:36:28.600
<v Speaker 8>aren't that are being held and get them released, and

0:36:28.640 --> 0:36:32.560
<v Speaker 8>that you work over twelve eighteen months to try to

0:36:32.600 --> 0:36:35.920
<v Speaker 8>have some level of power sharing agreement where the military

0:36:36.000 --> 0:36:37.960
<v Speaker 8>is still going to be there and their interests will

0:36:37.960 --> 0:36:43.600
<v Speaker 8>still be respected, but that a civilian government with opposition

0:36:43.840 --> 0:36:48.319
<v Speaker 8>members could actually be allowed to run and win.

0:36:48.760 --> 0:36:51.080
<v Speaker 4>But that is a process and it will.

0:36:50.920 --> 0:36:56.240
<v Speaker 8>Require long term negotiations and engagement with this government.

0:36:56.480 --> 0:36:58.040
<v Speaker 4>Is it possible. It's possible.

0:36:58.280 --> 0:37:00.880
<v Speaker 1>In recent history, we have yet to be able to

0:37:00.960 --> 0:37:02.080
<v Speaker 1>succeed doing that.

0:37:02.320 --> 0:37:05.720
<v Speaker 8>Right, I mean Panama, Right is the example people point

0:37:05.760 --> 0:37:08.400
<v Speaker 8>to where you get rid of Noriega after an American

0:37:08.480 --> 0:37:09.640
<v Speaker 8>marine had been killed.

0:37:09.760 --> 0:37:11.080
<v Speaker 1>But it's much smaller.

0:37:11.200 --> 0:37:12.040
<v Speaker 4>Oh, it's very small.

0:37:12.239 --> 0:37:14.759
<v Speaker 1>There's a number of reasons why it's not comparable.

0:37:14.880 --> 0:37:17.160
<v Speaker 8>And the US had troops on the ground, and the

0:37:17.239 --> 0:37:19.760
<v Speaker 8>United States had great intelligence and all the rest.

0:37:19.719 --> 0:37:21.800
<v Speaker 1>And also had the Panama Canal.

0:37:21.960 --> 0:37:24.880
<v Speaker 8>Right, But Venezuela is not going to be Iraq, right,

0:37:25.000 --> 0:37:27.319
<v Speaker 8>Venezuela is not going to have a civil war. You

0:37:27.360 --> 0:37:30.239
<v Speaker 8>don't have sectarian divides there, you have a recent history

0:37:30.280 --> 0:37:34.000
<v Speaker 8>of democracy. There are lots of middle class educated Venezuelans

0:37:34.000 --> 0:37:36.440
<v Speaker 8>that would love to come back and invest if the

0:37:36.440 --> 0:37:39.440
<v Speaker 8>country actually could be well governed. But there is a

0:37:39.640 --> 0:37:44.000
<v Speaker 8>level of building material there, and I'm talking like civic

0:37:44.040 --> 0:37:47.399
<v Speaker 8>and human building material that you did not have in

0:37:47.400 --> 0:37:51.359
<v Speaker 8>Iraq or Afghanistan or Libya. And that also matters. So

0:37:51.440 --> 0:37:53.680
<v Speaker 8>we can't, you know, we can't like treat all of

0:37:53.680 --> 0:37:56.120
<v Speaker 8>these countries as if they're just identical disasters.

0:37:56.640 --> 0:38:01.239
<v Speaker 1>Right. But Trump, instead of focusing on sort of the

0:38:01.320 --> 0:38:06.360
<v Speaker 1>success there, his admin has now started making overtures towards Greenland.

0:38:06.800 --> 0:38:08.920
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, and you know that maybe we need to make

0:38:08.920 --> 0:38:10.120
<v Speaker 8>a strike on Columbia and we.

0:38:10.080 --> 0:38:12.200
<v Speaker 4>Hate Petro and that's a great idea. And you know

0:38:12.239 --> 0:38:13.800
<v Speaker 4>what about Cuba and all the rest?

0:38:13.880 --> 0:38:15.440
<v Speaker 1>And why why?

0:38:15.680 --> 0:38:15.879
<v Speaker 4>Well?

0:38:15.960 --> 0:38:19.319
<v Speaker 8>Number one, because you can that it turns out that

0:38:19.760 --> 0:38:25.200
<v Speaker 8>the norms that Americans believed contained their president are norms

0:38:25.239 --> 0:38:27.279
<v Speaker 8>that can be broken and that no one is going

0:38:27.280 --> 0:38:29.520
<v Speaker 8>to stand up and stop him. And he has proven

0:38:29.600 --> 0:38:32.239
<v Speaker 8>that time and time again, and much more effectively in

0:38:32.239 --> 0:38:35.239
<v Speaker 8>his second term, now that he has loyalists around him

0:38:35.280 --> 0:38:38.120
<v Speaker 8>and he has some experience than anyone would have expected.

0:38:38.200 --> 0:38:40.000
<v Speaker 8>So part of it is that, part of it is

0:38:40.000 --> 0:38:43.840
<v Speaker 8>his desire for wins and to be the historic president.

0:38:44.200 --> 0:38:47.640
<v Speaker 8>Because the thing about Greenland that upsets me, and I

0:38:48.120 --> 0:38:52.080
<v Speaker 8>use that term advisedly. I rarely get upset about things,

0:38:52.120 --> 0:38:55.840
<v Speaker 8>but I'm upset about this. The United States can achieve

0:38:56.400 --> 0:39:01.120
<v Speaker 8>any policy goal it wants with Greenland negotiating with one

0:39:01.160 --> 0:39:05.560
<v Speaker 8>of our most aligned tiny allies, Denmark. If we want

0:39:06.000 --> 0:39:10.000
<v Speaker 8>to have more access for the American military to expand

0:39:10.040 --> 0:39:14.200
<v Speaker 8>bases on territory which basically is unpopulated, they are more

0:39:14.239 --> 0:39:16.799
<v Speaker 8>than happy to provide that. If we want intelligence and

0:39:16.840 --> 0:39:21.200
<v Speaker 8>listening bases, absolutely no problem. We wanted to launch station

0:39:21.360 --> 0:39:24.480
<v Speaker 8>for elon Musk and SpaceX, they will make that happen.

0:39:24.600 --> 0:39:26.680
<v Speaker 4>You want to make sure that we have the ability to.

0:39:26.640 --> 0:39:32.480
<v Speaker 8>Exploit natural resources, minerals, fish, they will negotiate that. The

0:39:32.560 --> 0:39:36.400
<v Speaker 8>only thing they will not negotiate is that Greenland is

0:39:36.440 --> 0:39:38.880
<v Speaker 8>a part of Denmark that is not up for negotiation,

0:39:39.000 --> 0:39:41.839
<v Speaker 8>and that apparently is the single thing that Trump has

0:39:41.840 --> 0:39:44.080
<v Speaker 8>decided that he absolutely has to have.

0:39:44.560 --> 0:39:48.440
<v Speaker 1>I want to talk about this top risk support that

0:39:48.480 --> 0:39:51.600
<v Speaker 1>you guys just publish, because ostensibly we're supposed to be

0:39:51.640 --> 0:39:53.799
<v Speaker 1>talking about that, but so much has happened that you

0:39:53.920 --> 0:39:55.080
<v Speaker 1>have just well, I mean.

0:39:55.000 --> 0:39:56.920
<v Speaker 8>By the way, all of the stuff we're talking about

0:39:56.960 --> 0:39:59.560
<v Speaker 8>is risk Number three is the Donro doctrine. It's there,

0:39:59.719 --> 0:40:02.680
<v Speaker 8>and it's also the US political revolution, and it is

0:40:03.000 --> 0:40:05.480
<v Speaker 8>this is the year where the United States is driving

0:40:05.560 --> 0:40:08.520
<v Speaker 8>the majority of the geopolitical uncertainty.

0:40:08.000 --> 0:40:10.320
<v Speaker 4>Around the world. So that is what we are talking

0:40:10.320 --> 0:40:11.319
<v Speaker 4>about the top Vers report.

0:40:11.360 --> 0:40:14.400
<v Speaker 1>There's no question which is insane. I mean, I don't know.

0:40:14.480 --> 0:40:16.080
<v Speaker 1>I think you're a little older than I, but like

0:40:16.160 --> 0:40:18.680
<v Speaker 1>the way I grew up, the idea that America we

0:40:18.719 --> 0:40:21.759
<v Speaker 1>are now the rogue actor is just insane to me.

0:40:21.960 --> 0:40:24.960
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I know we've had moments where the country

0:40:25.000 --> 0:40:28.880
<v Speaker 1>has seemed to make a wrong move, but this seems

0:40:29.320 --> 0:40:33.560
<v Speaker 1>the sort of untetheredness of our leader seems completely crazy.

0:40:33.600 --> 0:40:34.080
<v Speaker 4>In my mind.

0:40:34.520 --> 0:40:38.400
<v Speaker 8>I described Trump as not the cause, but as a symptom,

0:40:38.840 --> 0:40:42.160
<v Speaker 8>as a beneficiary, and as an accelerant, because I don't

0:40:42.200 --> 0:40:44.560
<v Speaker 8>think this is new and I don't put it all

0:40:44.560 --> 0:40:47.760
<v Speaker 8>on Trump at all. I think that for a long time,

0:40:47.920 --> 0:40:51.560
<v Speaker 8>a growing number of Americans felt that the United States

0:40:52.280 --> 0:40:56.400
<v Speaker 8>was acting as the global policeman, with its troops putting

0:40:56.400 --> 0:40:59.560
<v Speaker 8>them in Harm's way at huge expense. The US was

0:40:59.719 --> 0:41:03.360
<v Speaker 8>acting as the architect for free trade, but not paying

0:41:03.400 --> 0:41:06.600
<v Speaker 8>attention to the hallowing out of jobs in the United States,

0:41:06.640 --> 0:41:09.960
<v Speaker 8>not supporting the social contract, and the US was promoting

0:41:10.000 --> 0:41:12.440
<v Speaker 8>democracy around the world at a time that the average

0:41:12.440 --> 0:41:15.160
<v Speaker 8>American felt that the US system was not democratic for itself.

0:41:15.320 --> 0:41:16.959
<v Speaker 8>And you know, one of the things that I find

0:41:16.960 --> 0:41:20.959
<v Speaker 8>most interesting is that among Americans in the twenty twenty

0:41:21.000 --> 0:41:24.560
<v Speaker 8>four election who say that democracy was an important reason

0:41:24.600 --> 0:41:26.440
<v Speaker 8>that they voted, maybe not the most important reason, but

0:41:26.480 --> 0:41:29.480
<v Speaker 8>an important reason. More of those Americans voted for Trump

0:41:29.520 --> 0:41:33.239
<v Speaker 8>and commelaers because they believed that the country was already

0:41:33.719 --> 0:41:37.360
<v Speaker 8>so unrepresentative and captured that they wanted someone that was

0:41:37.440 --> 0:41:38.600
<v Speaker 8>willing to break the system.

0:41:38.600 --> 0:41:40.520
<v Speaker 4>And Trump is that Trump is someone who was willing

0:41:40.560 --> 0:41:41.200
<v Speaker 4>to break the system.

0:41:41.400 --> 0:41:43.399
<v Speaker 1>But it's a year later, and if you check back

0:41:43.400 --> 0:41:45.040
<v Speaker 1>in those people, none of them are happy.

0:41:45.239 --> 0:41:48.920
<v Speaker 4>Oh that's not fair. Well, the magabase is the megabase

0:41:49.080 --> 0:41:49.719
<v Speaker 4>is right.

0:41:49.719 --> 0:41:52.239
<v Speaker 1>But the low frequency voters, if you look at his

0:41:52.320 --> 0:41:56.160
<v Speaker 1>numbers with young people, the people who are the recent

0:41:56.320 --> 0:41:59.000
<v Speaker 1>converts to trump Ism, a lot of those people have

0:41:59.320 --> 0:42:00.000
<v Speaker 1>taken it back.

0:42:00.239 --> 0:42:02.560
<v Speaker 8>Your point is correct, but a strong majority of the

0:42:02.560 --> 0:42:05.080
<v Speaker 8>people that voted for Trump still support Trump and what

0:42:05.160 --> 0:42:07.360
<v Speaker 8>they got it's exactly what they wanted.

0:42:07.640 --> 0:42:11.279
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, but the magabase. You can't win with the magabase.

0:42:10.960 --> 0:42:12.520
<v Speaker 8>Right, No, you can't win with any base in the

0:42:12.600 --> 0:42:15.480
<v Speaker 8>United States. The country's incredibly, incredibly divided. But the fact

0:42:15.480 --> 0:42:18.280
<v Speaker 8>that you have thirty thirty five percent of the United

0:42:18.320 --> 0:42:21.800
<v Speaker 8>States that believes that the system is that broken implies

0:42:21.840 --> 0:42:25.280
<v Speaker 8>that the system is probably reasonably close to that broken.

0:42:25.400 --> 0:42:28.279
<v Speaker 1>I would add, the people who believe the system is

0:42:28.320 --> 0:42:31.360
<v Speaker 1>broken is a different circle on the been diagram, because

0:42:31.400 --> 0:42:33.840
<v Speaker 1>those are the people. Some of those people are Indies,

0:42:34.160 --> 0:42:36.800
<v Speaker 1>some of those people are people of color who voted

0:42:36.800 --> 0:42:38.920
<v Speaker 1>for Trump a year ago and who've changed it. So,

0:42:39.040 --> 0:42:43.120
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I would say the magabase is partially disruptors

0:42:43.280 --> 0:42:46.799
<v Speaker 1>and partially just people who vote for a Republican no

0:42:46.880 --> 0:42:47.200
<v Speaker 1>matter what.

0:42:48.080 --> 0:42:49.239
<v Speaker 4>But I'm just saying that.

0:42:49.280 --> 0:42:51.480
<v Speaker 8>I think that there is a structural move for the

0:42:51.560 --> 0:42:53.880
<v Speaker 8>United States to say we don't support free trade, we

0:42:53.920 --> 0:42:55.520
<v Speaker 8>want industrial policy period.

0:42:55.560 --> 0:42:56.920
<v Speaker 4>I think there's a structural move for the.

0:42:56.960 --> 0:42:59.720
<v Speaker 8>United States say we want to stop having these troops

0:42:59.800 --> 0:43:02.719
<v Speaker 8>all over the world doing all this stuff for allies

0:43:02.760 --> 0:43:04.719
<v Speaker 8>that are actually weaker and they're not growing and they're

0:43:04.760 --> 0:43:06.760
<v Speaker 8>not productive and they're not spending period.

0:43:07.040 --> 0:43:08.240
<v Speaker 4>And there's a lot a lot.

0:43:08.120 --> 0:43:10.080
<v Speaker 8>Of people, there's a lot of support for people saying

0:43:10.080 --> 0:43:12.680
<v Speaker 8>we will stop all that immigration because you've got to

0:43:12.680 --> 0:43:14.359
<v Speaker 8>take care of us first before you bring in more

0:43:14.360 --> 0:43:17.839
<v Speaker 8>immgrants done. Those are structural points, and they're playing out

0:43:17.880 --> 0:43:19.880
<v Speaker 8>all over the world, right all over the world.

0:43:20.040 --> 0:43:23.560
<v Speaker 1>For sure, I would say they were structural points, because

0:43:24.120 --> 0:43:27.000
<v Speaker 1>I mean Venezuela. Trump has said any number of things,

0:43:27.040 --> 0:43:28.720
<v Speaker 1>he's going to run it, he's going to send boots

0:43:28.719 --> 0:43:30.279
<v Speaker 1>on the ground, he's going to do this, He's going

0:43:30.320 --> 0:43:32.840
<v Speaker 1>to do that. None of those are America first.

0:43:33.120 --> 0:43:33.359
<v Speaker 3>Right.

0:43:33.680 --> 0:43:37.200
<v Speaker 8>Well, he's been very very careful thus far, and again

0:43:37.320 --> 0:43:38.960
<v Speaker 8>he can change his mind at any moment.

0:43:39.360 --> 0:43:42.480
<v Speaker 4>But the twelve Day War in Iran splendid.

0:43:42.080 --> 0:43:45.600
<v Speaker 8>Little war operation that we actually saw and experienced in Venezuela.

0:43:46.120 --> 0:43:48.400
<v Speaker 4>Splendid little war. And by the way, it would not

0:43:48.480 --> 0:43:49.040
<v Speaker 4>surprise me.

0:43:49.160 --> 0:43:50.760
<v Speaker 8>I don't know if they've discussed this, but it wouldn't

0:43:50.760 --> 0:43:52.439
<v Speaker 8>surprise me that if it turns out if he needed

0:43:52.440 --> 0:43:54.960
<v Speaker 8>boots on the ground, wouldn't surprise me if at all.

0:43:54.960 --> 0:43:56.040
<v Speaker 4>If he did.

0:43:55.920 --> 0:43:59.560
<v Speaker 8>The Russian Wagner Group type thing, mercenaries private sector.

0:44:00.160 --> 0:44:01.960
<v Speaker 4>Not sending Americans to die.

0:44:01.920 --> 0:44:06.520
<v Speaker 8>Wouldn't shock me at all, because he's so focused on

0:44:06.880 --> 0:44:09.160
<v Speaker 8>Americans want to stop doing this.

0:44:09.440 --> 0:44:12.120
<v Speaker 4>I do think that's a real thing that he has.

0:44:12.520 --> 0:44:16.640
<v Speaker 1>Again, who knows what he does. It's all completely nuts.

0:44:16.480 --> 0:44:18.480
<v Speaker 4>But I'm not willing to go there.

0:44:18.920 --> 0:44:20.960
<v Speaker 1>Right, we don't know what he's going to do, because

0:44:21.000 --> 0:44:24.720
<v Speaker 1>that's the Madman theory, right, it's Nixon plus plus plus.

0:44:24.760 --> 0:44:26.960
<v Speaker 1>I want you to talk about the real teriff right

0:44:27.080 --> 0:44:30.080
<v Speaker 1>because I think really good reporting in the Times a

0:44:30.120 --> 0:44:32.440
<v Speaker 1>couple of days ago, the real tariff, right is not

0:44:32.680 --> 0:44:35.560
<v Speaker 1>the terifrate that the Admin is selling it as. What

0:44:35.760 --> 0:44:36.759
<v Speaker 1>is a real tiff rate?

0:44:36.840 --> 0:44:39.600
<v Speaker 8>And why I think the real terif rate now right

0:44:39.680 --> 0:44:43.200
<v Speaker 8>now blended is about what fifteen seventeen percent?

0:44:43.280 --> 0:44:44.120
<v Speaker 4>It's something like.

0:44:44.040 --> 0:44:45.120
<v Speaker 1>That, something like that.

0:44:45.280 --> 0:44:48.240
<v Speaker 8>And it's like with the IEPA ruling with the Supreme Court,

0:44:48.280 --> 0:44:50.840
<v Speaker 8>assuming some constraints, it's probably going to come down a

0:44:50.840 --> 0:44:52.080
<v Speaker 8>bit and there's going to be more deals.

0:44:52.080 --> 0:44:54.160
<v Speaker 4>Don't have the Indian deal yet, that's going to get done.

0:44:54.560 --> 0:44:58.200
<v Speaker 8>Twenty twenty five was the year of talking about tariffs

0:44:58.200 --> 0:45:01.880
<v Speaker 8>and that uncertainty. Two twenty six, Trump cannot continue to

0:45:01.960 --> 0:45:05.000
<v Speaker 8>use tariffs in that way. He has to get prices down,

0:45:05.280 --> 0:45:07.920
<v Speaker 8>he knows it. He has to get more deals signed

0:45:07.960 --> 0:45:11.319
<v Speaker 8>with countries. He knows it. He can't fight with the Chinese.

0:45:11.440 --> 0:45:14.680
<v Speaker 8>He understands that too. That's the other component of the

0:45:14.760 --> 0:45:20.680
<v Speaker 8>Donroe doctrine is Economically, the world is globalized, it is interdependent,

0:45:20.800 --> 0:45:25.719
<v Speaker 8>supply chains are sticky, and it is multipolar. Militarily, the

0:45:25.719 --> 0:45:30.000
<v Speaker 8>world is unipolar militarily. The United States actually is by

0:45:30.080 --> 0:45:34.200
<v Speaker 8>far the most important player and can determine outcomes to

0:45:34.280 --> 0:45:36.960
<v Speaker 8>a much greater degree. And Trump is going to lean

0:45:37.040 --> 0:45:40.120
<v Speaker 8>more into now the places where he has more influence.

0:45:40.360 --> 0:45:42.000
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, let's see what happens.

0:45:42.080 --> 0:45:42.360
<v Speaker 4>Ian.

0:45:42.520 --> 0:45:44.560
<v Speaker 1>Thank you for joining us. I hope you'll come back.

0:45:44.760 --> 0:45:46.200
<v Speaker 4>Sure moly, love you see Sue.

0:45:47.680 --> 0:45:50.759
<v Speaker 2>A moment Sue.

0:45:50.640 --> 0:45:53.000
<v Speaker 1>Jesse Cannon by junk Fast.

0:45:53.160 --> 0:45:58.040
<v Speaker 2>So the Corporation for Public Broadcasting has dissolved after the

0:45:58.080 --> 0:46:01.879
<v Speaker 2>federal funding cuts after six d years. This is going

0:46:01.960 --> 0:46:03.720
<v Speaker 2>to be quite shitty.

0:46:04.080 --> 0:46:07.600
<v Speaker 1>So the Corporation for Public Broadcasting again, Like, this is

0:46:07.640 --> 0:46:10.399
<v Speaker 1>something we talk about a lot, which is what does

0:46:10.400 --> 0:46:14.239
<v Speaker 1>your government important? Where did your tax dollars go? So

0:46:14.560 --> 0:46:17.000
<v Speaker 1>we're seeing with Trump, we don't know what's going to

0:46:17.000 --> 0:46:20.520
<v Speaker 1>happen yet, but they did kidnap the president and his wife,

0:46:20.719 --> 0:46:24.520
<v Speaker 1>even Azuela. So let's talk about this. That's tax dollars, right,

0:46:24.640 --> 0:46:27.560
<v Speaker 1>So let's talk about these tax dollars. So these tax

0:46:27.600 --> 0:46:32.440
<v Speaker 1>dollars are gone, the tax dollars that supported NPR, PBS

0:46:32.520 --> 0:46:34.919
<v Speaker 1>and a lot of public radio stations, they're gone. That's

0:46:35.040 --> 0:46:39.600
<v Speaker 1>over ended by a cabal that involved Elon Musk, but

0:46:39.760 --> 0:46:42.479
<v Speaker 1>was always the plan comes from Project twenty twenty five.

0:46:42.640 --> 0:46:47.720
<v Speaker 1>The idea was, why should tax dollars go to subsidizing

0:46:47.960 --> 0:46:51.320
<v Speaker 1>any kind of news? The thing I think is important

0:46:51.360 --> 0:46:53.040
<v Speaker 1>and I want to go back to Nick Shalley for

0:46:53.040 --> 0:46:57.160
<v Speaker 1>a minutes. Nick surely is a product of a world

0:46:57.440 --> 0:47:04.240
<v Speaker 1>that good country, really, that prioritizes clickbait and big headlines

0:47:04.440 --> 0:47:07.960
<v Speaker 1>and no reporting right. Because if Nick sually had a

0:47:08.080 --> 0:47:12.239
<v Speaker 1>team or even a lawyer, right, or even any kind

0:47:12.280 --> 0:47:16.080
<v Speaker 1>of accountability, he would have read the many, many, many

0:47:16.200 --> 0:47:20.880
<v Speaker 1>articles about the story. But he didn't because there's no infrastructure.

0:47:21.000 --> 0:47:25.839
<v Speaker 1>Because the rewards are for people who say things that

0:47:26.040 --> 0:47:31.400
<v Speaker 1>are provocative and not for the truths. That's behind it.

0:47:31.560 --> 0:47:34.799
<v Speaker 1>And so what we're seeing here is a culture that

0:47:34.920 --> 0:47:37.920
<v Speaker 1>does not really give a fuck about the truth. And

0:47:37.960 --> 0:47:41.160
<v Speaker 1>that is why we are going to see PBS and NPR.

0:47:41.400 --> 0:47:45.359
<v Speaker 1>They have now gotten rid of that organization. It no

0:47:45.400 --> 0:47:49.560
<v Speaker 1>longer exists. The public is no longer funding broadcasting. It's

0:47:49.560 --> 0:47:54.120
<v Speaker 1>pretty shocking. Just like with the vaccines, it will cause

0:47:54.280 --> 0:47:56.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, one of the things, and we talk about

0:47:56.320 --> 0:47:59.520
<v Speaker 1>this in this Ian interview in Gremar, is that there

0:47:59.560 --> 0:48:02.640
<v Speaker 1>are all all sorts of second order effects coming from this.

0:48:03.000 --> 0:48:06.080
<v Speaker 1>You know, you don't have reporting, you don't so you're

0:48:06.120 --> 0:48:08.680
<v Speaker 1>not going to know what's happening. So you'll have more

0:48:08.840 --> 0:48:12.600
<v Speaker 1>government corruption, you'll have more state level corruption, you'll have

0:48:12.840 --> 0:48:15.520
<v Speaker 1>more of all of this stuff. You know, just like

0:48:15.560 --> 0:48:18.040
<v Speaker 1>when you cut vaccines, you have more sick kids, When

0:48:18.080 --> 0:48:21.760
<v Speaker 1>you cut reporting, you have more crime, you have more

0:48:22.320 --> 0:48:25.680
<v Speaker 1>corruption that's not exposed. And that is what we'll see here.

0:48:25.840 --> 0:48:29.520
<v Speaker 1>So just like when you kidnap the leader of a nation,

0:48:29.840 --> 0:48:32.440
<v Speaker 1>you open the door to second order effects. That's what

0:48:32.480 --> 0:48:36.239
<v Speaker 1>we're looking at here. That's it for this episode of

0:48:36.320 --> 0:48:43.080
<v Speaker 1>Fast Politics. Tune in every Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday

0:48:43.239 --> 0:48:46.560
<v Speaker 1>to hear the best minds and politics make sense of

0:48:46.880 --> 0:48:51.120
<v Speaker 1>all this chaos. If you enjoy this podcast, please send

0:48:51.160 --> 0:48:54.800
<v Speaker 1>it to a friend and keep the conversation going. Thanks

0:48:54.840 --> 0:48:55.560
<v Speaker 1>for listening,