WEBVTT - Nvidia's AI-Fueled Blowout Earnings

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business. Wait inside from the reporters and

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<v Speaker 1>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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<v Speaker 1>global business finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, we want to get back to one of our

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<v Speaker 2>big stories of the day.

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<v Speaker 3>It started last night after the close, when Nvidia reported

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<v Speaker 3>their latest quarterly update. The stock did hit a record.

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<v Speaker 3>In today's trading, it's definitely backed off at ties of

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<v Speaker 3>the session, and though still I will say, like Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 3>has been writing about how it's kind of increasingly growing

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<v Speaker 3>into its scorching valuation every time the chip maker reports earnings.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, that's because it's forecasts of really dwarfed Wall Street

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<v Speaker 4>projections by so much that estimates used to value the

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<v Speaker 4>stock have risen faster than in video shares. It's price

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<v Speaker 4>relative Carol to projected profits that's fallen below thirty nine

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<v Speaker 4>times after it delivered its latest eye popping projection last night.

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<v Speaker 4>That's down from sixty three times before it's May earnings report.

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<v Speaker 3>One last thing, we just talked about it with our

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<v Speaker 3>TV colleagues. The last research firm with the equivalent of

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<v Speaker 3>a celebrating on Nvidia throw in the towel morning Star

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<v Speaker 3>upgrading the chip maker to hold, saying it is much

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<v Speaker 3>more optimistic about the rise of AI workloads and how

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<v Speaker 3>NVIDIAs whyd note should cement itself as an AI chip leader.

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<v Speaker 4>All right, morning Star, jumping on the train with more

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<v Speaker 4>on the company's fundamentals and roll in the semi space

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<v Speaker 4>and the race for all things AI. With us, we

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<v Speaker 4>got Bloomberg News US semi conductor and networking reporter Ian King.

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<v Speaker 4>Also with US Bloomberg Intelligence, a senior semi conductor analyst

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<v Speaker 4>Kun John Sabani, both from our San Francisco bureaus. You know,

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<v Speaker 4>I want to start with you because you've got some

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<v Speaker 4>news post earnings on the company. A big concern that

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<v Speaker 4>a lot of observers have is of a chip shortage.

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<v Speaker 4>Of course, in Vidia relying on TSMC and Samsung for components.

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<v Speaker 4>What did you hear from the CEO, Jensen Huang when

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<v Speaker 4>you asked about this?

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I mean really, this was the big thing coming

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<v Speaker 5>in two innings was would they be able to get

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<v Speaker 5>enough chips? There wasn't really that much concern about demand,

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<v Speaker 5>and you know, how to Chavel Johnson afterwards, and he said, look,

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<v Speaker 5>we've been really really working very hard on this. This

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<v Speaker 5>is you know, kind of a major priority for us,

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<v Speaker 5>and here's the progress and we're going to continue to

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<v Speaker 5>keep doing that. And you know, they gave details about

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<v Speaker 5>you know, they see supply increasing for them every quarter

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<v Speaker 5>well into next year, which is really what investors wanted

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<v Speaker 5>to hear.

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<v Speaker 3>Interesting, all right, So Kondan come on in on this.

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<v Speaker 3>Ian definitely highlighting certainly the concern about uh Nvidia. Your

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<v Speaker 3>take on what you heard, what Ian just talked about,

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<v Speaker 3>and just the overall report and outlook.

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<v Speaker 6>Like and the same in the same lines. You know,

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<v Speaker 6>going into the earnings, there were two key factors that

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<v Speaker 6>we outlined in our preview that investors will be looking for.

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<v Speaker 6>One is supply getting better, which they did announce and validated.

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<v Speaker 6>And second was giving some kind of a moment more

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<v Speaker 6>faith to this sustainability of the AI demand, which they

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<v Speaker 6>again highlight to put in context. Data center segment was

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<v Speaker 6>already expected to grow sequentially close to ninety percent, an

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<v Speaker 6>ambitious gold that's something you don't hear regularly. They ended

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<v Speaker 6>up growing one hundred and forty percent. So I think

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<v Speaker 6>this gives some ease that this demand rally does have legs.

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<v Speaker 3>So when the CEO also then founder Jensen Wong says,

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<v Speaker 3>the shift to AI is only beginning. I mean, Ian,

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<v Speaker 3>how do you think about kind of what else is

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<v Speaker 3>to come here? And you know, I was talking with

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<v Speaker 3>some folks here in our newsroom and they said, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>what happens a year from now when those year over

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<v Speaker 3>year comparisons become tougher for the company. Can it really

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<v Speaker 3>continue with this momentum?

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<v Speaker 5>No, I think you've nailed it there with that question.

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<v Speaker 5>This was another magic concern is sustainability. He gave some commentary.

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<v Speaker 5>He said, Look, data centers don't get built over night, right,

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<v Speaker 5>These these things take months, if not years. We know

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<v Speaker 5>our customers plans, so we've got that. You know that

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<v Speaker 5>that wouldn't have of what we know is exactly what's

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<v Speaker 5>going to happen. But in the sort of bridger terms,

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<v Speaker 5>he made the point in the conversation I had with him,

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<v Speaker 5>which is like, look, it's great if chat GPT helps

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<v Speaker 5>a few knowledge workers to write a bit better code,

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<v Speaker 5>helps a few consumers to you know, write an essay

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<v Speaker 5>or help them with an email or something like that.

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<v Speaker 5>But that's all it is. That's not fantastic. What he

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<v Speaker 5>said was what gets him more excited. What he's working on,

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<v Speaker 5>what he thinks needs to happen is it has to

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<v Speaker 5>become entrenched in the economy. Large, heavy industries have to

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<v Speaker 5>transition to using this technology to help with their operations,

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<v Speaker 5>to help with productivity. He's working on that. He's working

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<v Speaker 5>on making that easier for them. As that happens, this

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<v Speaker 5>technology broadens its basis and becomes more pervasive and becomes,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, clearly something that isn't as ephemeral as some

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<v Speaker 5>people would like to believe it.

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<v Speaker 4>Is, Kun John, I want you to hit on that

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<v Speaker 4>a little bit. It makes me think of a conversation

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<v Speaker 4>that had years ago with a friend who worked at

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<v Speaker 4>one of the tech firms. She told me that technology

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<v Speaker 4>was no longer this sector. It was like this layer

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<v Speaker 4>that kind of permeates every little bit of our lives.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, we're on our smartphones doing these things. We're

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<v Speaker 4>at the doctor's office, the doctor's using technology, and it's

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<v Speaker 4>this overarching term, Kun John, what happens Does AI ever

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<v Speaker 4>get to that level and what does it look like

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<v Speaker 4>in a day to day life beyond the beyond industry,

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<v Speaker 4>beyond factory.

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, look, from our perspective, we think of this

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<v Speaker 6>as the when when you had the Internet come in,

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<v Speaker 6>right when you had the iPhone come in. Those technology

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<v Speaker 6>inflection points had a long cycle, almost like a decade

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<v Speaker 6>before it hit a platu. So we think this is

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<v Speaker 6>in the very early innings. This definitely has the ability

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<v Speaker 6>to permeate into our everyday lives. You know, the next

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<v Speaker 6>big step would be large language models or generative AI

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<v Speaker 6>running on your smartphones. So there's definitely room for this

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<v Speaker 6>run here well.

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<v Speaker 3>And I do wonder you know need and we talked

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<v Speaker 3>about this already with you yesterday, and just this concern

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<v Speaker 3>that how do we make sure we continue to be

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<v Speaker 3>smart and now get caught up in the euphoria And

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<v Speaker 3>that's what I think about constantly. Is there a chance

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<v Speaker 3>that some of this optimism doesn't play out? Or does

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<v Speaker 3>this feel like yeah, this makes sense, especially in a

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<v Speaker 3>world where there's so much data and we continue to

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<v Speaker 3>get smarter. It's not just a dump of data, but

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<v Speaker 3>we continue to fine tune it and make it work

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<v Speaker 3>better and smarter for us.

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<v Speaker 5>I mean, again, I think that's a very poignant question,

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<v Speaker 5>and you know, We went through this with the dot

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<v Speaker 5>com bust, and that's obviously something that people are drawing

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<v Speaker 5>parallels with. What I would give you as a response

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<v Speaker 5>to that, and what I'm hearing is like, look, AI

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<v Speaker 5>as a concept, which is basically statistical analysis, has been

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<v Speaker 5>around for a long time. The algorithms that we're using

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<v Speaker 5>now have been around for decades.

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<v Speaker 1>Right.

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<v Speaker 5>What's changed is the data that we can now tap

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<v Speaker 5>to use them and the power that we now have

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<v Speaker 5>that can actually make that happen. I mean, we just

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<v Speaker 5>talked about smartphones, right, smart Imagine something that you're carrying

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<v Speaker 5>in your pocket is capable of taking massive amounts of

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<v Speaker 5>data that you're generating just by living and walking around

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<v Speaker 5>and turning that into something useful and productive that helps

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<v Speaker 5>you with your life. If that happens, and that's what

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<v Speaker 5>we're moving towards, and that's creating economic value. And I

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<v Speaker 5>think that's the key. If you look at all of

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<v Speaker 5>these applications that are being proposed, whether it's drug discovery,

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<v Speaker 5>whether it is you know, factory planning, whether it's you know,

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<v Speaker 5>designing robots, whatever it is, if there is genuine economic

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<v Speaker 5>value and efficiency and production to be created there, then

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<v Speaker 5>it has legs. What we saw at the beginning of

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<v Speaker 5>the Internet was the promise of that, and then everybody

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<v Speaker 5>was like, oh, where's the value right, and it came,

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<v Speaker 5>but it took a while.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, Kuntan too, and keeping with what Ian said, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>we recently had a guest on that about quantum computing

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<v Speaker 3>and the connection with AI and this idea that you know,

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<v Speaker 3>you can solve and decode problems much faster than classical

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<v Speaker 3>computers and it's basically you know, large scale systems and

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<v Speaker 3>layers and layers. So is that something you also think about, Kunjohan,

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<v Speaker 3>This role of you know, a whole advanced computing way

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<v Speaker 3>and the role of AI in all of it.

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, look like, just like Ian said, AA has

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<v Speaker 6>been there for a long time, right, but we're now

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<v Speaker 6>seeing this big acceleration because we finally have figured out

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<v Speaker 6>to use this concept like genera d AAI on actually

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<v Speaker 6>implementing in day to day use cases, at least at

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<v Speaker 6>the enterprise level. So similarly, I think, look, this concept

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<v Speaker 6>of quantum computing have been coined for many years, a

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<v Speaker 6>lot of people have been working on it, but until

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<v Speaker 6>it comes to the point where you can deploy it

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<v Speaker 6>to the masses. I don't I think that's when you'll

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<v Speaker 6>see another rally over there.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, it's really cool stuff and certainly keeping us off

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<v Speaker 3>engaged guys, Thank you so much, really appreciate the breakdown.

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<v Speaker 3>Ian King, US semiconductor and networking reporter at Bloomberg News

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<v Speaker 3>from our San Francisco bureau. Also in our bureau, Cunjon Sabani.

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<v Speaker 3>He is Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Semiconductor analyst. As we said

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<v Speaker 3>both there out on the West coast. By the way,

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<v Speaker 3>shares of Nvidia still up about one point four percent,

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<v Speaker 3>but way off their best levels of the session.

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<v Speaker 1>If you're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, catch

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<v Speaker 2>So in the tech world, it wasn't just about Nvidia today.

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<v Speaker 3>In fact, that stock's rally ran out of steam, but

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<v Speaker 3>not so for shares of the infrastructure software company cyber

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<v Speaker 3>security companies Splunk, soaring up the most since December, closing

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<v Speaker 3>it a fifty two week high today following earnings and

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<v Speaker 3>a quarterly update.

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<v Speaker 2>After the close last night. Stock is up.

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<v Speaker 3>Roughly thirty two percent year to date, so roughly doubling

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<v Speaker 3>its return in twenty twelve.

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<v Speaker 2>Twenty three. Thanks Tim too today's rally.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah. Splunk Reporter is second quarter revenue that beat estimates.

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<v Speaker 4>It raised it's fullier forecast beyond expectations. Analysts called the

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<v Speaker 4>results solid overall, noting the better annual recurring revenue as

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<v Speaker 4>well as the upgraded forecast. We got with us right now.

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<v Speaker 4>Splunk President and CEO Gary Steele. He joined us on

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<v Speaker 4>a zoom from San Francisco. Gary, how are you great?

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<v Speaker 7>It's great to be here.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, we've been hearing a lot about Like we

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<v Speaker 4>hear from companies. We like to hear how you know

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<v Speaker 4>their customers are doing because it gives us an idea

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<v Speaker 4>of the economy. How are your customers doing?

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<v Speaker 7>Yeah, it was interesting in our second quarter we saw

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<v Speaker 7>very much the same macro conditions that we'd seen in

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<v Speaker 7>prior quarters, and so where it impacted us as we

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<v Speaker 7>saw some hesitation in cloud migrations because these represent new

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<v Speaker 7>projects that have to be funded. And while the ROI

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<v Speaker 7>and getting to the cloud is amazing, you still have

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<v Speaker 7>to fund the actual migration effort, and then we saw

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<v Speaker 7>a continued deal scrutiny, so deals alongating or requiring additional signatures.

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<v Speaker 7>I think the one positive thing for us is I

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<v Speaker 7>think we understand it now and I think our team

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<v Speaker 7>did just a phenomenal job executing within that environment and

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<v Speaker 7>understanding that, yes, there will be more reviews and more

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<v Speaker 7>scrutiny on deals, but we executed quite well, really part

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<v Speaker 7>of the team.

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<v Speaker 4>Reviews and scrutiny are one thing, but what about deals

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<v Speaker 4>falling through?

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<v Speaker 7>Again, we saw more consistency in terms of just scrutiny

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<v Speaker 7>and we and I think there was more. I'd call

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<v Speaker 7>it just stabilization. So I think going into the court

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<v Speaker 7>of people knew what dollars they were going to be

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<v Speaker 7>able to spend, all.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, So how would you describe then the corporate IT

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<v Speaker 3>spend environment generally? Is there a word Gary to say,

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<v Speaker 3>because I think it helps us in a big way

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<v Speaker 3>understand kind of what's to come maybe for the rest

0:11:44.720 --> 0:11:46.480
<v Speaker 3>of the year and what maybe is going on in

0:11:46.520 --> 0:11:47.160
<v Speaker 3>the economy.

0:11:48.320 --> 0:11:50.760
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, I think there's there still remains a high level

0:11:50.760 --> 0:11:53.679
<v Speaker 7>of scrutiny on every dollar being spent by the IT community.

0:11:54.320 --> 0:11:58.320
<v Speaker 7>And while I think we've executed well within that environment.

0:11:58.679 --> 0:12:01.839
<v Speaker 7>We anticipate no change as we work through the second half,

0:12:01.880 --> 0:12:04.720
<v Speaker 7>we will continue to see this level of scrutiny and

0:12:04.920 --> 0:12:07.640
<v Speaker 7>hesitations as it relates to us in this category of

0:12:07.679 --> 0:12:13.520
<v Speaker 7>cloud migration. So we're expecting no change and that's how

0:12:13.559 --> 0:12:16.720
<v Speaker 7>we've thought about providing our guidance for the go forward quarters.

0:12:16.760 --> 0:12:19.240
<v Speaker 3>What's cool talking about you and I got this off

0:12:19.240 --> 0:12:24.440
<v Speaker 3>your website. Fifteen thousand customers, one hundred and ten countries, Zoom, Intel,

0:12:24.480 --> 0:12:28.240
<v Speaker 3>Coca Cola, Carnival, Arii, Airbus, and many more. It's the world,

0:12:28.559 --> 0:12:31.360
<v Speaker 3>it's the universe, if you will. So what types of

0:12:31.400 --> 0:12:34.640
<v Speaker 3>companies are leading the spend? Which ones might there be

0:12:34.679 --> 0:12:35.400
<v Speaker 3>some hesitation?

0:12:37.400 --> 0:12:42.760
<v Speaker 7>You know, we sell pretty consistent behavior across verticals our

0:12:42.800 --> 0:12:46.360
<v Speaker 7>business we've had as an example, we do a lot

0:12:46.360 --> 0:12:48.760
<v Speaker 7>of work with the government and governments around the world.

0:12:48.840 --> 0:12:54.240
<v Speaker 7>That's been relatively consistent for us and a big growth opportunity. Today,

0:12:54.360 --> 0:12:57.120
<v Speaker 7>roughly two thirds of our business is domestic, one third

0:12:57.160 --> 0:13:00.000
<v Speaker 7>is international. We continue to see a lot of opportunit

0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:02.840
<v Speaker 7>unity working with the international customers to take advantage of

0:13:02.840 --> 0:13:06.240
<v Speaker 7>the capabilities we can offer. But from a buying point

0:13:06.280 --> 0:13:08.840
<v Speaker 7>of view, buying perspective, it was pretty consistent around the globe.

0:13:09.000 --> 0:13:11.360
<v Speaker 3>Can we talk about what you guys do, because you

0:13:11.360 --> 0:13:13.360
<v Speaker 3>also have your own AI offerings, which I know you

0:13:13.400 --> 0:13:16.280
<v Speaker 3>guys put out last month, but cybersecurity company, I feel

0:13:16.280 --> 0:13:20.280
<v Speaker 3>like that's a big bucket, right, infrastructure software company big bucket?

0:13:20.400 --> 0:13:22.240
<v Speaker 2>So just walk for those who might.

0:13:22.120 --> 0:13:24.839
<v Speaker 3>Not be familiar familiar with your you know, almost nineteen

0:13:24.880 --> 0:13:28.560
<v Speaker 3>billion dollar market cap company, which they should be, tell

0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:31.480
<v Speaker 3>us about exactly what you do.

0:13:30.720 --> 0:13:31.120
<v Speaker 1>You bet.

0:13:31.280 --> 0:13:35.680
<v Speaker 7>We help organizations drive digital resilience across their cyber environment.

0:13:35.760 --> 0:13:37.520
<v Speaker 7>So how do we ensure that they're well protected and

0:13:37.559 --> 0:13:40.240
<v Speaker 7>they understand what's going on in their cyber environment. This

0:13:40.400 --> 0:13:45.280
<v Speaker 7>is particularly important as we face new sec disclosure requirements

0:13:45.280 --> 0:13:48.560
<v Speaker 7>where you have to notify your shareholders within four days

0:13:48.559 --> 0:13:51.000
<v Speaker 7>of a material event. You know, we're at the core

0:13:51.080 --> 0:13:53.319
<v Speaker 7>of helping organizations figure out what the heck happened and

0:13:53.400 --> 0:13:56.319
<v Speaker 7>how can you meet that four day deadline? And then

0:13:56.360 --> 0:14:01.400
<v Speaker 7>we extend broadly into the observability market, meaning how work

0:14:01.559 --> 0:14:05.360
<v Speaker 7>core to helping organizations keep their digital applications up and

0:14:05.440 --> 0:14:07.760
<v Speaker 7>running so that their customers can get access to all

0:14:07.800 --> 0:14:11.200
<v Speaker 7>of those services, So helping them understand if something happens

0:14:11.240 --> 0:14:13.680
<v Speaker 7>to one of those applications, what's going on and how

0:14:13.720 --> 0:14:15.360
<v Speaker 7>do you get it up and running quickly and try

0:14:15.400 --> 0:14:18.520
<v Speaker 7>to anticipate those events. Where AI plays a role for

0:14:18.640 --> 0:14:26.400
<v Speaker 7>us is helping across security and broader infrastructure anticipate things,

0:14:26.440 --> 0:14:29.800
<v Speaker 7>so trying to get better outcomes faster, so teams can

0:14:29.800 --> 0:14:31.680
<v Speaker 7>be more efficient in what they do every day. So

0:14:31.760 --> 0:14:34.680
<v Speaker 7>and for example in the security operations center, just making

0:14:34.680 --> 0:14:38.280
<v Speaker 7>it easier to operate and get to better outcomes faster

0:14:38.400 --> 0:14:40.000
<v Speaker 7>without all the manual work.

0:14:40.240 --> 0:14:43.880
<v Speaker 3>So with the AI euphoria, how do you think about

0:14:43.920 --> 0:14:47.320
<v Speaker 3>it in terms of is it really something that this

0:14:47.520 --> 0:14:51.160
<v Speaker 3>next gen AI, generative AI really going to take so

0:14:51.240 --> 0:14:54.400
<v Speaker 3>many different industries to a different level. It's the real

0:14:54.720 --> 0:14:56.080
<v Speaker 3>mcgilla if you will.

0:14:56.360 --> 0:14:59.440
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, No, I'm super enthusiastic about it. I feel like

0:15:00.320 --> 0:15:05.440
<v Speaker 7>we can deliver much better outcomes for our customers leveraging

0:15:05.480 --> 0:15:09.760
<v Speaker 7>the power of AI and simple things that we've already introduced.

0:15:09.760 --> 0:15:13.880
<v Speaker 7>So to use plunk, you use you interact with it

0:15:13.920 --> 0:15:18.000
<v Speaker 7>with a proprietary language. Well, with generative AI, we can

0:15:18.040 --> 0:15:21.240
<v Speaker 7>give you a human interface. So just ask what you

0:15:21.320 --> 0:15:23.280
<v Speaker 7>want and we will help you go find it and

0:15:23.320 --> 0:15:25.880
<v Speaker 7>do it. And so then we generate all that proprietary

0:15:25.960 --> 0:15:27.720
<v Speaker 7>language on your behalf and you don't have to have

0:15:27.760 --> 0:15:31.600
<v Speaker 7>that knowledge or understanding. So our ability to take down

0:15:33.640 --> 0:15:36.480
<v Speaker 7>the skills required make it so much easier to interact

0:15:36.480 --> 0:15:39.480
<v Speaker 7>with our product. We're very bullish on that. You know,

0:15:39.520 --> 0:15:42.120
<v Speaker 7>it's still early and I think there's a lot of

0:15:42.200 --> 0:15:45.000
<v Speaker 7>hype in the market generally, but I think at the

0:15:45.080 --> 0:15:47.960
<v Speaker 7>end of the day, we can make a real difference

0:15:48.000 --> 0:15:50.240
<v Speaker 7>in one who can interact with their product and then

0:15:50.320 --> 0:15:52.760
<v Speaker 7>the outcomes that can be delivered as a result of that.

0:15:53.280 --> 0:15:56.000
<v Speaker 7>And this is a journey. It doesn't happen overnight, but

0:15:56.080 --> 0:15:57.960
<v Speaker 7>we can continue to chip away at this and make

0:15:58.040 --> 0:16:00.840
<v Speaker 7>real progress. I think it will be informational in our

0:16:00.880 --> 0:16:03.920
<v Speaker 7>industry because we deal with such rich data sets and

0:16:04.040 --> 0:16:06.760
<v Speaker 7>in that world you can get great outcomes from AI.

0:16:06.920 --> 0:16:10.080
<v Speaker 4>When when you're leveraging the when you're leveraging AI for

0:16:10.160 --> 0:16:13.120
<v Speaker 4>your customers, who are the suppliers that you're using. Are

0:16:13.120 --> 0:16:15.520
<v Speaker 4>you getting chips from Nvidio? Are you getting chips from AMD?

0:16:16.960 --> 0:16:20.160
<v Speaker 7>So we think about it from a cloud perspective, and

0:16:20.200 --> 0:16:22.480
<v Speaker 7>so we're going to the cloud service providers and we're

0:16:22.560 --> 0:16:24.960
<v Speaker 7>leveraging the cloud service providers to be able to deliver

0:16:25.000 --> 0:16:28.760
<v Speaker 7>those AI capabilities. We're not directly buying or setting up

0:16:28.840 --> 0:16:31.400
<v Speaker 7>data centers. We're not directly buying in Vidio chips and

0:16:31.440 --> 0:16:35.440
<v Speaker 7>systems housing in Vidio chips. We're going to the cloud

0:16:35.440 --> 0:16:37.280
<v Speaker 7>service providers to get those capabilities.

0:16:37.280 --> 0:16:38.760
<v Speaker 4>Look in Amazon Web Services or.

0:16:38.840 --> 0:16:43.480
<v Speaker 7>Microsoft Amazon Amazon. We just announced a relationship with Microsoft

0:16:43.520 --> 0:16:46.840
<v Speaker 7>as it relates to bringing our native cloud solutions to

0:16:46.880 --> 0:16:49.680
<v Speaker 7>the Azure platform. And then we have a relationship with

0:16:49.840 --> 0:16:53.800
<v Speaker 7>Google as well for GCP. So we find demand across

0:16:53.840 --> 0:16:57.200
<v Speaker 7>those and we're leveraging their relationships ultimately all the way

0:16:57.200 --> 0:16:58.240
<v Speaker 7>through the chip providers.

0:16:58.320 --> 0:17:01.560
<v Speaker 3>How much do those relationship kind of impact your top

0:17:01.600 --> 0:17:05.040
<v Speaker 3>and bottom lines or give you kind of some window

0:17:05.080 --> 0:17:09.560
<v Speaker 3>into consistency for growth for your company.

0:17:09.840 --> 0:17:14.520
<v Speaker 7>So one, they're very critical. There are critical strategic partners

0:17:14.520 --> 0:17:20.159
<v Speaker 7>for us. There's two dynamics here. One is we allow

0:17:20.200 --> 0:17:23.399
<v Speaker 7>our customers to buy through the marketplaces of each of

0:17:23.440 --> 0:17:27.480
<v Speaker 7>those cloud service providers, meaning you can go and leverage

0:17:27.480 --> 0:17:30.560
<v Speaker 7>the credits you have for AWS or now with our

0:17:30.600 --> 0:17:34.359
<v Speaker 7>relationship with Microsoft, you can leverage your Azure credits, so

0:17:34.440 --> 0:17:38.160
<v Speaker 7>it makes buying easier. And then we work closely with

0:17:38.200 --> 0:17:40.879
<v Speaker 7>them to ensure you get a great technical outcome. So

0:17:41.000 --> 0:17:44.239
<v Speaker 7>you guys asking about chips et cetera. We can make

0:17:44.240 --> 0:17:47.440
<v Speaker 7>sure that we're well tuned for whatever systems they bring

0:17:47.480 --> 0:17:49.920
<v Speaker 7>to bear, and how we can make sure that our

0:17:49.960 --> 0:17:52.240
<v Speaker 7>customers are getting the maximum TCO.

0:17:52.880 --> 0:17:55.439
<v Speaker 4>I want to end Gary, just kind of where we

0:17:55.520 --> 0:17:58.080
<v Speaker 4>begin and getting your view on what the economy looks like.

0:17:58.080 --> 0:17:59.560
<v Speaker 4>There are a lot of questions as we wait to

0:17:59.560 --> 0:18:02.359
<v Speaker 4>hear from j Pal tomorrow about what the economy looks like.

0:18:02.480 --> 0:18:04.040
<v Speaker 4>Just in the last forty five seconds that we have

0:18:04.119 --> 0:18:05.320
<v Speaker 4>with you, what's your read.

0:18:08.119 --> 0:18:10.000
<v Speaker 7>I believe we were going to see the same for

0:18:10.040 --> 0:18:13.679
<v Speaker 7>some period of time. We haven't. We haven't built that

0:18:13.840 --> 0:18:17.600
<v Speaker 7>into we haven't built any improvement into our guidance. And

0:18:17.680 --> 0:18:22.600
<v Speaker 7>I think that I believe we're in a soft landing

0:18:22.640 --> 0:18:25.280
<v Speaker 7>mode that we're going to continue to see some conservatism,

0:18:25.320 --> 0:18:27.160
<v Speaker 7>but we'll work our way out of this over time.

0:18:27.320 --> 0:18:29.879
<v Speaker 3>Well, So enjoyed our conversation with you, Be well and

0:18:29.920 --> 0:18:33.000
<v Speaker 3>look forward to next time. It's Plunk President and CEO

0:18:33.040 --> 0:18:35.720
<v Speaker 3>Gary Steele joining us on Zoom from San Francisco.

0:18:35.720 --> 0:18:40.119
<v Speaker 1>As we said, you're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast.

0:18:40.359 --> 0:18:43.440
<v Speaker 1>Catch us live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter

0:18:43.760 --> 0:18:47.520
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Business app, and YouTube. You

0:18:47.560 --> 0:18:50.800
<v Speaker 1>can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

0:18:50.880 --> 0:18:56.040
<v Speaker 1>New York station Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:18:57.119 --> 0:18:59.400
<v Speaker 4>Well, although masks have come off for many of us,

0:18:59.600 --> 0:19:01.520
<v Speaker 4>and for the most part, many of us are back

0:19:01.560 --> 0:19:04.000
<v Speaker 4>to normal, even if that normal is a bit different,

0:19:04.040 --> 0:19:06.720
<v Speaker 4>COVID is still here and a lot of people right now, Carol,

0:19:06.760 --> 0:19:08.119
<v Speaker 4>are still getting it. I don't know if you saw this.

0:19:08.200 --> 0:19:10.720
<v Speaker 4>Just yesterday, the New York City Department of Health said

0:19:10.720 --> 0:19:12.399
<v Speaker 4>that cases in the city are on the rise and

0:19:12.880 --> 0:19:15.520
<v Speaker 4>some people should consider wearing a mask and crowded indoor settings.

0:19:15.600 --> 0:19:17.679
<v Speaker 3>Listen, We've had folks with masks back in the office

0:19:18.000 --> 0:19:21.959
<v Speaker 3>who were getting over having COVID. We're also learning more

0:19:22.000 --> 0:19:24.399
<v Speaker 3>about the virus in its aftermath. A study published this

0:19:24.400 --> 0:19:26.400
<v Speaker 3>week in the journal Nature found that people who were

0:19:26.440 --> 0:19:29.600
<v Speaker 3>never sick enough to be hospitalized for acute COVID still

0:19:29.600 --> 0:19:33.320
<v Speaker 3>had a higher risk than uninfected people of developing long

0:19:33.320 --> 0:19:38.640
<v Speaker 3>COVID related disorders such as dangerous blood cloths, diabetes, and lung, gastrointestinal,

0:19:38.800 --> 0:19:42.639
<v Speaker 3>and muscule skeletal disease. Two years later, well.

0:19:42.520 --> 0:19:44.880
<v Speaker 4>Very pleased to have with us, doctor Andy Peckosh, President

0:19:45.160 --> 0:19:48.480
<v Speaker 4>Professor excuse me, of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology at the

0:19:48.560 --> 0:19:52.119
<v Speaker 4>Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health. I almost

0:19:52.160 --> 0:19:54.960
<v Speaker 4>gave you a promotion there, doctor Peckosh. But it's good

0:19:54.960 --> 0:19:57.880
<v Speaker 4>to have you with us Health Conserve Well, yes, President.

0:19:58.160 --> 0:20:00.000
<v Speaker 4>In my book, how's that we should know that the Bloomberg

0:20:00.000 --> 0:20:02.240
<v Speaker 4>School Public Hell that is supported by Michael R. Bloomberg,

0:20:02.240 --> 0:20:06.399
<v Speaker 4>founder of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. Doctor Petter is

0:20:06.400 --> 0:20:08.120
<v Speaker 4>good to have you with us right now. I want

0:20:08.119 --> 0:20:10.320
<v Speaker 4>to start with the new variants that we're seeing right

0:20:10.359 --> 0:20:12.359
<v Speaker 4>now and why we're seeing this up to it's summer.

0:20:12.400 --> 0:20:12.920
<v Speaker 4>What's going on?

0:20:14.040 --> 0:20:17.760
<v Speaker 8>Well, you know, COVID nineteen has never really left us.

0:20:18.359 --> 0:20:20.639
<v Speaker 8>We were fortunate over the past few months to have

0:20:20.840 --> 0:20:24.000
<v Speaker 8>very low numbers of cases, but we were still having cases,

0:20:24.040 --> 0:20:27.920
<v Speaker 8>and we were still seeing viruses that were essentially doing

0:20:27.920 --> 0:20:31.320
<v Speaker 8>what viruses do. They mutate, they change so that they

0:20:31.320 --> 0:20:33.919
<v Speaker 8>can keep circulating in the population. We were just seeing

0:20:33.960 --> 0:20:37.520
<v Speaker 8>that at a very low level. We're not sure what

0:20:37.560 --> 0:20:41.200
<v Speaker 8>the factors are that are driving this surge of cases

0:20:41.320 --> 0:20:43.520
<v Speaker 8>right now, but you know, I think it's important to

0:20:43.560 --> 0:20:45.920
<v Speaker 8>note that case numbers are low, as you had mentioned,

0:20:46.440 --> 0:20:49.199
<v Speaker 8>but this is the time to remember, you know, what

0:20:49.280 --> 0:20:50.679
<v Speaker 8>is it that we're going to be doing if we

0:20:50.760 --> 0:20:53.960
<v Speaker 8>do come up COVID nineteen positive, and to remember that

0:20:54.240 --> 0:20:57.600
<v Speaker 8>there are very vulnerable parts of the population who should

0:20:57.640 --> 0:21:00.399
<v Speaker 8>perhaps pay a little bit more attention and take more

0:21:00.520 --> 0:21:02.400
<v Speaker 8>care to avoid being infected.

0:21:02.720 --> 0:21:05.760
<v Speaker 3>Andy, how are you guys thinking at Johns Hopkins about

0:21:05.840 --> 0:21:09.960
<v Speaker 3>where we are in the COVID cycle and virus? Is

0:21:09.960 --> 0:21:13.440
<v Speaker 3>it something becoming more akin to kind of the annual

0:21:13.560 --> 0:21:15.800
<v Speaker 3>flu Are you thinking about that or is it still

0:21:15.840 --> 0:21:17.880
<v Speaker 3>something maybe a little bit more serious or could be

0:21:17.960 --> 0:21:19.360
<v Speaker 3>again something more serious.

0:21:20.200 --> 0:21:25.000
<v Speaker 8>Well, in terms of disease, it's clear that influence itself

0:21:25.040 --> 0:21:28.320
<v Speaker 8>is dangerous. COVID nineteen is even more dangerous than influenza.

0:21:29.000 --> 0:21:32.679
<v Speaker 8>It causes more hospitalizations on a per case basis, causes

0:21:32.720 --> 0:21:35.720
<v Speaker 8>more deaths on a per case basis, So we really

0:21:35.760 --> 0:21:41.760
<v Speaker 8>consider COVID nineteen as seriously, if not more seriously than influenza.

0:21:41.960 --> 0:21:45.840
<v Speaker 4>Is that across different age groups or is that does

0:21:45.840 --> 0:21:47.200
<v Speaker 4>that include kids? Also?

0:21:47.880 --> 0:21:51.320
<v Speaker 8>It is across age groups. The relative risk though is

0:21:51.440 --> 0:21:54.800
<v Speaker 8>very different. Right, So while COVID is more dangerous in

0:21:54.960 --> 0:21:58.960
<v Speaker 8>young kids than influenza. The case numbers and the numbers

0:21:58.960 --> 0:22:01.240
<v Speaker 8>of severe cases are much lower there than if you

0:22:01.400 --> 0:22:03.919
<v Speaker 8>compare it to let's say, individuals over the age of

0:22:03.960 --> 0:22:04.560
<v Speaker 8>sixty five.

0:22:04.760 --> 0:22:06.639
<v Speaker 4>Wait a second, hold on, I want to make sure

0:22:06.640 --> 0:22:10.040
<v Speaker 4>I understand this. Influenza is not as dangerous in kids

0:22:10.080 --> 0:22:10.639
<v Speaker 4>as covid is.

0:22:13.640 --> 0:22:17.840
<v Speaker 8>COVID causes more severe disease in children across the board

0:22:18.080 --> 0:22:18.960
<v Speaker 8>than influenza.

0:22:19.000 --> 0:22:23.080
<v Speaker 4>Would that's really interesting. I mean, influenza's the flu shot.

0:22:23.480 --> 0:22:25.280
<v Speaker 4>When you have young kids, like the flu shot is

0:22:25.280 --> 0:22:27.280
<v Speaker 4>the one you really want them to get. I don't

0:22:27.320 --> 0:22:29.520
<v Speaker 4>feel like it. I don't feel like the COVID vaccine

0:22:29.800 --> 0:22:33.040
<v Speaker 4>is being pushed as hard for young children as flu shots.

0:22:34.240 --> 0:22:36.719
<v Speaker 8>And in some ways you're correct. Now we're waiting for

0:22:36.800 --> 0:22:39.760
<v Speaker 8>the CDC guidance to come out for this year's fall

0:22:39.840 --> 0:22:44.120
<v Speaker 8>COVID vaccinations, but certainly, if you look across the board,

0:22:44.160 --> 0:22:48.639
<v Speaker 8>the American Pediatric Association recommends school children get COVID nineteen

0:22:48.720 --> 0:22:53.359
<v Speaker 8>vaccinations in the same way they recommend getting flu vaccinations.

0:22:53.760 --> 0:22:56.440
<v Speaker 8>So the vaccines that we have, it's important to note

0:22:56.600 --> 0:23:00.639
<v Speaker 8>they work, they're safe and irrespective of age. If you

0:23:00.760 --> 0:23:04.399
<v Speaker 8>get the vaccine, you can reduce the likelihood of severe disease,

0:23:04.520 --> 0:23:07.160
<v Speaker 8>and you can most likely reduce the chance of spreading

0:23:07.160 --> 0:23:08.600
<v Speaker 8>the virus to other individuals.

0:23:08.680 --> 0:23:11.359
<v Speaker 3>So there's a chance to reawait the guidance on the

0:23:11.440 --> 0:23:14.760
<v Speaker 3>vaccines for this fall that not everybody needs to have it,

0:23:14.800 --> 0:23:15.320
<v Speaker 3>Is that fair?

0:23:16.720 --> 0:23:19.879
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, it's certainly clear that if you're in some of

0:23:19.880 --> 0:23:23.120
<v Speaker 8>these high risk groups for COVID nine, for severe COVID

0:23:23.240 --> 0:23:26.040
<v Speaker 8>nineteen over the age of sixty five, if you have

0:23:27.760 --> 0:23:30.840
<v Speaker 8>if you're immuno compromised in any way, if you have

0:23:30.920 --> 0:23:34.240
<v Speaker 8>certain medical conditions that make you more predisposed to severe disease,

0:23:34.720 --> 0:23:38.160
<v Speaker 8>you know, I'm virtually positive that all those groups will

0:23:38.200 --> 0:23:42.159
<v Speaker 8>be recommended to get our COVID nineteen vaccine. You know,

0:23:42.200 --> 0:23:45.800
<v Speaker 8>the benefits of vaccination in other age groups are a

0:23:45.840 --> 0:23:48.359
<v Speaker 8>little less clear, simply because you don't have as many

0:23:48.400 --> 0:23:51.639
<v Speaker 8>severe cases in those groups. But when you look at

0:23:51.640 --> 0:23:55.320
<v Speaker 8>the viruses that have been circulating now, when you look

0:23:55.359 --> 0:23:59.680
<v Speaker 8>at what people were vaccinated with, the virus is circulating

0:23:59.680 --> 0:24:03.280
<v Speaker 8>now very different from the vaccine. So it would really

0:24:03.320 --> 0:24:06.320
<v Speaker 8>make sense for almost everybody to consider getting a COVID

0:24:06.359 --> 0:24:10.280
<v Speaker 8>nineteen vaccine right now, because it'll help them much much

0:24:10.320 --> 0:24:13.600
<v Speaker 8>more in terms of limiting their chance of getting an.

0:24:13.440 --> 0:24:15.600
<v Speaker 4>Infection right now, are in the fall when the new

0:24:15.600 --> 0:24:19.640
<v Speaker 4>one comes out in the fall, Okay, because we don't

0:24:19.680 --> 0:24:20.560
<v Speaker 4>have access to that one yet.

0:24:20.560 --> 0:24:20.919
<v Speaker 1>Correct.

0:24:21.520 --> 0:24:24.480
<v Speaker 8>Correct, that one should be rolling out middle of September,

0:24:24.560 --> 0:24:27.520
<v Speaker 8>end of September or so. And again, before that rolls out,

0:24:27.560 --> 0:24:30.160
<v Speaker 8>we should be getting some clear guidance from the CDC

0:24:30.720 --> 0:24:33.880
<v Speaker 8>about who they strongly recommend to get it and who

0:24:33.920 --> 0:24:34.720
<v Speaker 8>they think should get it.

0:24:34.800 --> 0:24:37.400
<v Speaker 4>Okay. When our producer mentioned this subject on the call

0:24:37.440 --> 0:24:39.480
<v Speaker 4>this morning, I was like, wait, what, This is kind

0:24:39.480 --> 0:24:41.800
<v Speaker 4>of crazy, but he brought to our attention big thanks

0:24:41.840 --> 0:24:44.520
<v Speaker 4>to Paul Brennan and everyone else in the control room,

0:24:44.760 --> 0:24:48.199
<v Speaker 4>that they're actually you could benefit by getting all of

0:24:48.200 --> 0:24:50.760
<v Speaker 4>your COVID shots in the same arm each time you

0:24:50.800 --> 0:24:52.960
<v Speaker 4>go and get another shot. Have you seen this research?

0:24:53.600 --> 0:24:57.280
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, there's one. There's a one in a publication in

0:24:57.320 --> 0:25:00.560
<v Speaker 8>particular that recently came out that suggest that if you

0:25:00.760 --> 0:25:04.800
<v Speaker 8>get the shot in the same arm, that you have

0:25:04.920 --> 0:25:09.080
<v Speaker 8>a slightly higher response, particularly in something we call T

0:25:09.280 --> 0:25:12.160
<v Speaker 8>cell responses, which is a separate arm of the immune

0:25:12.200 --> 0:25:16.000
<v Speaker 8>system from the antibodies that we always talk about after vaccines.

0:25:16.440 --> 0:25:18.280
<v Speaker 4>I don't even remember what armor I always do.

0:25:18.520 --> 0:25:20.800
<v Speaker 3>I do my like left because I'm a right handed

0:25:20.840 --> 0:25:23.000
<v Speaker 3>so I feel like if it gets sore, like that's

0:25:23.000 --> 0:25:23.639
<v Speaker 3>how I do it.

0:25:23.840 --> 0:25:24.400
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, go ahea.

0:25:24.440 --> 0:25:26.760
<v Speaker 8>Yeah. And I think it's clear that you know, the

0:25:27.119 --> 0:25:32.480
<v Speaker 8>effects there were significant, but the antibody responses were the

0:25:32.560 --> 0:25:34.879
<v Speaker 8>same irrespective of which arm you got it into, or

0:25:34.880 --> 0:25:38.439
<v Speaker 8>how many or whether you alternated there. So it's probably

0:25:38.440 --> 0:25:41.000
<v Speaker 8>one of those interesting subtle things, but it's certainly not

0:25:41.080 --> 0:25:43.000
<v Speaker 8>something that we should lease sleepover. If you're going in

0:25:43.040 --> 0:25:45.680
<v Speaker 8>to get a vaccine, it's much much better to get

0:25:45.680 --> 0:25:49.119
<v Speaker 8>the vaccine in either arm than to not get the vaccine.

0:25:49.160 --> 0:25:51.600
<v Speaker 3>Are we getting complacent and not getting ready for the

0:25:51.640 --> 0:25:54.000
<v Speaker 3>next kind of virus that hits us? And just got

0:25:54.000 --> 0:25:55.600
<v Speaker 3>about twenty five seconds.

0:25:55.880 --> 0:25:58.959
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, I think it's really it's really important for us

0:25:58.960 --> 0:26:02.879
<v Speaker 8>to stay aware. We're seeing cases of well parasites like

0:26:03.040 --> 0:26:08.200
<v Speaker 8>malaria UH in here in Maryland. We're seeing UH infections

0:26:08.200 --> 0:26:12.520
<v Speaker 8>with tropical viruses in Florida. We have to be aware

0:26:12.680 --> 0:26:16.440
<v Speaker 8>that new viruses can show up for a number of reasons,

0:26:16.480 --> 0:26:18.120
<v Speaker 8>and we have to keep our guard up for them.

0:26:18.359 --> 0:26:20.280
<v Speaker 3>Right we've been talking to about climate change. A warmer

0:26:20.359 --> 0:26:23.920
<v Speaker 3>environment certainly fertile ground for creating all of this. Doctor

0:26:23.920 --> 0:26:26.320
<v Speaker 3>Andy Pecosh, thank you so much. We lean on you, guys.

0:26:26.320 --> 0:26:31.120
<v Speaker 3>Professor of Molecular Microbiology and Menology at the Johns Hopkins University,

0:26:31.119 --> 0:26:33.960
<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg School of Public of course, supported by Michael R.

0:26:33.960 --> 0:26:37.000
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Founder Bloomberg Op. This is Bloomberg Radio.

0:26:38.119 --> 0:26:41.439
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and

0:26:41.520 --> 0:26:53.520
<v Speaker 1>Tim Stenebek on Bloomberg Radio.

0:26:57.320 --> 0:27:02.119
<v Speaker 4>Words love it well, the domestic cover story of the

0:27:02.119 --> 0:27:04.960
<v Speaker 4>new issue of Bloomberg Business Week really speaks to Carolyn May.

0:27:05.000 --> 0:27:06.639
<v Speaker 4>It's because Carol loves getting shots.

0:27:06.720 --> 0:27:06.800
<v Speaker 7>No.

0:27:06.920 --> 0:27:09.840
<v Speaker 4>It has the words tick tick. It also depicts the

0:27:09.880 --> 0:27:13.199
<v Speaker 4>distinctive bullseye rash around a tick bite that can indicate

0:27:13.240 --> 0:27:16.960
<v Speaker 4>transmission of lime disease. You also might remember earlier this month,

0:27:17.000 --> 0:27:19.240
<v Speaker 4>Carol and I were speaking with a professor of molecular

0:27:19.240 --> 0:27:22.320
<v Speaker 4>microbiology and aminology about lime disease, and Carol you asked

0:27:22.320 --> 0:27:25.200
<v Speaker 4>on air, if we can give our dogs vaccines against

0:27:25.200 --> 0:27:27.800
<v Speaker 4>lime disease, then why can't we get vaccinated?

0:27:27.880 --> 0:27:28.080
<v Speaker 9>Yeah?

0:27:28.119 --> 0:27:30.560
<v Speaker 3>I mean I give my dog medication like it right

0:27:30.680 --> 0:27:31.760
<v Speaker 3>to make sure that they.

0:27:31.760 --> 0:27:32.879
<v Speaker 4>Well, you know what you could do. You could go

0:27:32.880 --> 0:27:34.280
<v Speaker 4>ask the vet for a little bit of that.

0:27:34.280 --> 0:27:36.600
<v Speaker 3>That's crazy, all right, Well, it is a real question.

0:27:36.720 --> 0:27:38.280
<v Speaker 3>And it turns out that there used to be a

0:27:38.320 --> 0:27:40.480
<v Speaker 3>lime vaccine. Back in nineteen ninety eight, the company that's

0:27:40.520 --> 0:27:44.359
<v Speaker 3>now GSK got approval for something called limerex I believe

0:27:44.400 --> 0:27:47.960
<v Speaker 3>it said it was the first lime vaccine for humans,

0:27:47.960 --> 0:27:48.760
<v Speaker 3>but tim the.

0:27:48.720 --> 0:27:51.160
<v Speaker 4>Shot failed, yeah, for a host of reasons. Now, after

0:27:51.280 --> 0:27:54.200
<v Speaker 4>more than two decades, a pandemic and hundreds of thousands,

0:27:54.359 --> 0:27:57.399
<v Speaker 4>if not millions, of lime disease cases, phase three trials

0:27:57.400 --> 0:27:59.800
<v Speaker 4>are underway for a lime vaccine from Pfizer and the

0:28:00.320 --> 0:28:02.800
<v Speaker 4>drug maker of val Neva, and it's expected to be

0:28:02.840 --> 0:28:06.879
<v Speaker 4>available in twenty twenty six. This story by Kristin V.

0:28:07.040 --> 0:28:11.120
<v Speaker 4>Brown and Naha Cotten Kristin Bloomberg News healthcare reporter. She's

0:28:11.119 --> 0:28:13.400
<v Speaker 4>on the phone from Brooklyn, also with us as Bloomberg

0:28:13.400 --> 0:28:15.760
<v Speaker 4>Business Week editor Joel Webber in our Bloomberg Interactive at

0:28:15.760 --> 0:28:18.560
<v Speaker 4>Broker's studio. The story is in the upcoming new issue

0:28:18.560 --> 0:28:21.160
<v Speaker 4>of Bloomberg BusinessWeek magazine. It's on newsstands later this week,

0:28:21.200 --> 0:28:24.080
<v Speaker 4>already online at Bloomberg dot com, slash BusinessWeek and on

0:28:24.119 --> 0:28:29.159
<v Speaker 4>the Bloomberg terminal. So Joel why why don't we have

0:28:29.200 --> 0:28:30.320
<v Speaker 4>a line these vaccines?

0:28:30.920 --> 0:28:35.080
<v Speaker 10>That there was so much I've learned reading this story,

0:28:35.200 --> 0:28:40.400
<v Speaker 10>and I was deeply grateful for Kristin and Naha's work

0:28:40.440 --> 0:28:43.520
<v Speaker 10>on it because it revealed so much about the state

0:28:43.560 --> 0:28:45.959
<v Speaker 10>of the world, like we had a vaccine, we had

0:28:46.000 --> 0:28:49.360
<v Speaker 10>a line vaccine. If you live in the Northeast and

0:28:49.400 --> 0:28:54.320
<v Speaker 10>you do anything outside in warm summer months, you know

0:28:54.360 --> 0:28:58.640
<v Speaker 10>how terrifying it is to go, you know, walk around

0:28:58.680 --> 0:29:02.400
<v Speaker 10>in tall grass and come out with a lot with tics,

0:29:02.440 --> 0:29:06.760
<v Speaker 10>which it really and lime disease is so mysterious and

0:29:06.840 --> 0:29:10.760
<v Speaker 10>yet so devastating to a lot of people. And as

0:29:10.760 --> 0:29:15.040
<v Speaker 10>we've seen in the decades since this vaccine that was

0:29:15.840 --> 0:29:19.600
<v Speaker 10>on the market for a number of years before it disappeared,

0:29:20.520 --> 0:29:25.160
<v Speaker 10>the case, the number of cases has exploded and they're

0:29:25.280 --> 0:29:29.000
<v Speaker 10>just ticks everywhere. And that's part of why interest in

0:29:29.080 --> 0:29:34.080
<v Speaker 10>a vaccine remains and why this partnership, the one that

0:29:34.120 --> 0:29:40.760
<v Speaker 10>Pfizer's leading is really interesting. It never failed, yes, and

0:29:40.800 --> 0:29:44.400
<v Speaker 10>that's an important thing because it actually worked, But it

0:29:44.600 --> 0:29:48.840
<v Speaker 10>met America in a world that was just beginning to

0:29:48.920 --> 0:29:53.360
<v Speaker 10>wrestle with vaccine skepticism, and that's what doomed it back then.

0:29:53.400 --> 0:29:56.560
<v Speaker 10>But it wasn't like it didn't work, and if anything,

0:29:57.040 --> 0:30:02.680
<v Speaker 10>the technology was amazing and and really counterintuitive to what

0:30:02.960 --> 0:30:06.200
<v Speaker 10>I think you would expect of a vaccine. And the

0:30:06.640 --> 0:30:09.960
<v Speaker 10>what we're going to see, probably from Pfizer if it

0:30:10.000 --> 0:30:14.720
<v Speaker 10>gets approved, is basically doubling down on that same approach.

0:30:15.720 --> 0:30:18.240
<v Speaker 10>So Kristin, what was what was an intro? What was

0:30:18.360 --> 0:30:23.880
<v Speaker 10>novel about the approach of the Limericks vaccine from nineteen

0:30:23.960 --> 0:30:26.840
<v Speaker 10>ninety eight, and and where where does that bring Pfizer?

0:30:28.360 --> 0:30:31.520
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, so I am a huge nerd that I'm going

0:30:31.560 --> 0:30:34.120
<v Speaker 11>to nerd out here for a minute. This is a

0:30:34.160 --> 0:30:36.880
<v Speaker 11>really neat vaccine because of the way it works. So

0:30:36.960 --> 0:30:40.160
<v Speaker 11>most vaccines they just you know, take a little bit

0:30:40.160 --> 0:30:43.080
<v Speaker 11>of a pathogen a virus during this case of bacteria,

0:30:43.120 --> 0:30:46.280
<v Speaker 11>and they take it and introduce it to your body

0:30:46.400 --> 0:30:49.520
<v Speaker 11>so that your body starts making antibodies to it, so

0:30:49.560 --> 0:30:52.440
<v Speaker 11>when you encounter it, your body fights it. In this case,

0:30:52.920 --> 0:30:56.480
<v Speaker 11>your body makes antibodies to something that's in the tick.

0:30:57.040 --> 0:31:00.760
<v Speaker 11>So when a tick latches onto you and are drinking

0:31:00.800 --> 0:31:03.760
<v Speaker 11>your blood, the antipathy.

0:31:03.320 --> 0:31:05.600
<v Speaker 10>Because it sounds so much fun, like so much fun.

0:31:06.120 --> 0:31:09.360
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, so fun, so fun, so so uh so when

0:31:09.360 --> 0:31:11.640
<v Speaker 11>the tick lapses onto you. The antibodies are there in

0:31:11.720 --> 0:31:15.600
<v Speaker 11>your blood. Go into the tick while it's drinking your

0:31:15.600 --> 0:31:20.960
<v Speaker 11>blood and kill this bacteria, which looks a lot like

0:31:21.000 --> 0:31:24.680
<v Speaker 11>the silly pasta. Kills the bacteria while it's in the

0:31:24.760 --> 0:31:27.840
<v Speaker 11>tick before it can go into you. So so the bacteria,

0:31:28.120 --> 0:31:30.800
<v Speaker 11>you know, if all goes according to plan, never even

0:31:30.920 --> 0:31:33.800
<v Speaker 11>enters your body, which is why it's so different from

0:31:34.040 --> 0:31:38.040
<v Speaker 11>from other vaccines and why I personally think it's super

0:31:38.080 --> 0:31:38.640
<v Speaker 11>freak and eat.

0:31:38.680 --> 0:31:39.840
<v Speaker 4>Wait, that's incredible.

0:31:40.000 --> 0:31:41.720
<v Speaker 9>It is pretty good, you know, isn't it?

0:31:41.800 --> 0:31:44.200
<v Speaker 3>Kind of though, like how the limes like the stuff

0:31:44.240 --> 0:31:46.040
<v Speaker 3>we give our dogs like it kind of because it

0:31:46.160 --> 0:31:49.200
<v Speaker 3>repels the ticks, like kind of off.

0:31:49.000 --> 0:31:49.520
<v Speaker 10>The dog, is it?

0:31:49.560 --> 0:31:51.200
<v Speaker 4>Girl's gonna come in wearing one of those collars.

0:31:52.200 --> 0:31:54.800
<v Speaker 10>Don't do that well, and don't take the dog vaccine.

0:31:54.880 --> 0:31:56.960
<v Speaker 2>It's always Kristin. It's always blown my mind. I'm like,

0:31:56.960 --> 0:31:57.680
<v Speaker 2>what we've been given.

0:31:57.680 --> 0:32:00.320
<v Speaker 3>I've been getting stuff to my pups for a long time, Like,

0:32:00.320 --> 0:32:01.760
<v Speaker 3>why is it that we haven't gotten something?

0:32:01.840 --> 0:32:04.800
<v Speaker 2>Is it the same kind of dynamic or not even close?

0:32:04.920 --> 0:32:07.360
<v Speaker 11>Well, well, yeah, no it is. It is the same dynamic.

0:32:07.440 --> 0:32:09.840
<v Speaker 11>So first of all, I should say people don't take

0:32:09.920 --> 0:32:12.560
<v Speaker 11>the vaccine from your dog. I think we should just

0:32:12.600 --> 0:32:13.320
<v Speaker 11>put that up there.

0:32:13.680 --> 0:32:16.280
<v Speaker 10>In a little recent history of people going into vets

0:32:16.280 --> 0:32:18.800
<v Speaker 10>to get stuff they probably shouldn't have used. That's not

0:32:18.880 --> 0:32:19.280
<v Speaker 10>encourage that.

0:32:19.520 --> 0:32:22.120
<v Speaker 11>I'm I'm pretty sure people have done this, but it's

0:32:22.160 --> 0:32:25.840
<v Speaker 11>not not advised. But but yeah, I mean what happened

0:32:26.120 --> 0:32:30.680
<v Speaker 11>was after Limericks, the original shot was pulled for market,

0:32:30.920 --> 0:32:36.080
<v Speaker 11>you had competitors that were coming to market that were like, oh, this,

0:32:36.400 --> 0:32:38.640
<v Speaker 11>this isn't like in so hot, and so some of

0:32:38.680 --> 0:32:42.120
<v Speaker 11>them pivoted and went into veterinary medicine, where there was

0:32:42.160 --> 0:32:46.920
<v Speaker 11>a lot less sort of apprehension about the idea of

0:32:46.960 --> 0:32:50.160
<v Speaker 11>a vaccine. So so some of some of the veterinary

0:32:50.240 --> 0:32:55.400
<v Speaker 11>vaccines I believe are very similar technology to to this.

0:32:55.600 --> 0:32:59.520
<v Speaker 10>Humans don't use it, don't use it, do not try sposure.

0:32:59.720 --> 0:33:04.240
<v Speaker 10>But okay, I mean, Kristin, here we are two decades

0:33:04.560 --> 0:33:09.840
<v Speaker 10>after this vaccine disappeared. Why did it disappear if it worked?

0:33:10.960 --> 0:33:11.160
<v Speaker 9>Right?

0:33:11.280 --> 0:33:11.600
<v Speaker 1>Okay.

0:33:11.680 --> 0:33:14.560
<v Speaker 11>So one of the reasons I love the story of

0:33:14.680 --> 0:33:18.600
<v Speaker 11>the lime disease vaccine so much is that it's really

0:33:18.600 --> 0:33:21.400
<v Speaker 11>the story of how we feel about vaccines in general.

0:33:21.560 --> 0:33:25.120
<v Speaker 11>In a nutshell, people are weird about vaccines, and we're

0:33:25.120 --> 0:33:27.040
<v Speaker 11>weird about them for good reason. First of all, there's

0:33:27.040 --> 0:33:30.160
<v Speaker 11>something we give to healthy people, so our tolerance for

0:33:30.240 --> 0:33:33.400
<v Speaker 11>side effects is just less. You know, people don't want

0:33:33.440 --> 0:33:36.880
<v Speaker 11>to endure horrible side effects for something they may or

0:33:36.920 --> 0:33:39.320
<v Speaker 11>may not ever get in the future. And the other

0:33:39.360 --> 0:33:40.680
<v Speaker 11>thing is I think there's just a little bit of

0:33:40.720 --> 0:33:42.600
<v Speaker 11>a nick factor with like what you're going to put

0:33:42.640 --> 0:33:44.760
<v Speaker 11>what it means as a bacteri he's going to go

0:33:44.800 --> 0:33:47.840
<v Speaker 11>inside me. But so so for the Limeyers. In the

0:33:47.880 --> 0:33:51.080
<v Speaker 11>case of Limerix, it came on the market at the

0:33:51.160 --> 0:33:56.680
<v Speaker 11>time when the modern vaccine hesitancy movement was basically erupting.

0:33:56.720 --> 0:34:01.480
<v Speaker 11>You had Andrew Wakefield who suggested that the childhood MMR

0:34:01.600 --> 0:34:05.000
<v Speaker 11>vaccine could cause autism. That was in the UK. Here

0:34:05.040 --> 0:34:07.560
<v Speaker 11>in the United States, you had people concerned that are

0:34:07.600 --> 0:34:11.200
<v Speaker 11>preservative in vaccines was also causing autism. You had a

0:34:11.239 --> 0:34:15.200
<v Speaker 11>real problem with another vaccine for another illness. Not vaccine

0:34:15.200 --> 0:34:16.880
<v Speaker 11>got pulled from market, and so you had all this

0:34:17.000 --> 0:34:20.800
<v Speaker 11>stuff happening that were making people, you know, for the

0:34:20.840 --> 0:34:24.560
<v Speaker 11>first time in a long time, really raise their vaccines.

0:34:24.640 --> 0:34:26.920
<v Speaker 11>You know, prior to that, vaccines were viewed as this

0:34:27.239 --> 0:34:30.319
<v Speaker 11>you know, amazing public health tool, and the narrative was

0:34:30.400 --> 0:34:33.200
<v Speaker 11>just starting to shift as limericks comes to market. And

0:34:33.239 --> 0:34:35.640
<v Speaker 11>the other thing that happened was one of disease wasn't

0:34:35.680 --> 0:34:38.200
<v Speaker 11>a big deal at that point, not really. There were

0:34:38.239 --> 0:34:42.200
<v Speaker 11>sixteen thousand cases a year reported, mostly in the Northeast,

0:34:42.440 --> 0:34:46.200
<v Speaker 11>and you know, the FDA did approve it, but one

0:34:46.239 --> 0:34:50.080
<v Speaker 11>of the Recommendations committee members actually called it a yuppie

0:34:50.200 --> 0:34:53.560
<v Speaker 11>is a yuppie vaccine. He said, you know this isn't

0:34:53.800 --> 0:34:58.160
<v Speaker 11>like like basically the cost of administering this vaccine is

0:34:58.200 --> 0:35:00.879
<v Speaker 11>not worth it for how many cases of lime there

0:35:00.880 --> 0:35:03.000
<v Speaker 11>are ear So you had all this stuff kind of

0:35:03.040 --> 0:35:07.200
<v Speaker 11>going on that set this vaccine up to fail. And

0:35:07.280 --> 0:35:10.359
<v Speaker 11>then when it came to market, people started reporting side

0:35:10.400 --> 0:35:14.840
<v Speaker 11>effects and immediately, because there was so much bubbling concern

0:35:14.920 --> 0:35:19.040
<v Speaker 11>about other vaccines, people latched onto that. And you know,

0:35:19.120 --> 0:35:22.320
<v Speaker 11>it didn't get pulled because it didn't work or because

0:35:22.360 --> 0:35:24.920
<v Speaker 11>it was harmful. It got pulled because those things made

0:35:24.920 --> 0:35:27.239
<v Speaker 11>no one want it, and if nobody's buying it, it

0:35:27.280 --> 0:35:30.680
<v Speaker 11>wasn't really worth it to keep it on the market. So,

0:35:31.120 --> 0:35:33.880
<v Speaker 11>you know, fast forward, we have lots of lime disease.

0:35:33.920 --> 0:35:35.520
<v Speaker 4>Now, well that's what I wanted to talk to you about,

0:35:35.600 --> 0:35:40.480
<v Speaker 4>Kristin fast forward to twenty twenty three Andrew Wakefield's study

0:35:40.680 --> 0:35:45.239
<v Speaker 4>and report. The paper has been discredited. We still are

0:35:45.239 --> 0:35:48.200
<v Speaker 4>in an environment where there's skepticism about vaccines. Just look

0:35:48.239 --> 0:35:50.600
<v Speaker 4>at the uptake of the COVID vaccine and also of

0:35:50.640 --> 0:35:53.640
<v Speaker 4>course of the flu vaccine annually. But what's different about

0:35:53.800 --> 0:35:57.640
<v Speaker 4>lime disease? Ticks? Where people get lime disease and the

0:35:57.680 --> 0:35:59.680
<v Speaker 4>market right now, right.

0:36:00.120 --> 0:36:03.719
<v Speaker 11>Lot of parallels in our world right now to when

0:36:03.760 --> 0:36:07.480
<v Speaker 11>lime marks came on the market. Right, you have vaccine hesitancy,

0:36:07.920 --> 0:36:11.200
<v Speaker 11>probably at higher levels than it was back in nineteen

0:36:11.239 --> 0:36:14.480
<v Speaker 11>eighty eight and the aftermath of a global pandemic. But

0:36:14.640 --> 0:36:17.640
<v Speaker 11>on the other hand, we have so much more lime disease.

0:36:18.440 --> 0:36:22.480
<v Speaker 11>Some estimates suggest as many as almost five hundred thousand

0:36:22.560 --> 0:36:25.640
<v Speaker 11>cases a year in the United States being diagnosed increase.

0:36:25.840 --> 0:36:29.319
<v Speaker 11>There was so much lime disease, and I think that

0:36:29.360 --> 0:36:31.960
<v Speaker 11>there's this real fear of it, you know. I joke

0:36:32.080 --> 0:36:34.719
<v Speaker 11>sometimes that like that take is the new Jaws. Right,

0:36:35.600 --> 0:36:37.839
<v Speaker 11>You're not afraid of going in the ocean the summer time,

0:36:37.880 --> 0:36:39.080
<v Speaker 11>you're afraid of going into the woods.

0:36:39.120 --> 0:36:42.280
<v Speaker 4>I'm way more afraid of ticks than I am of sharks.

0:36:43.239 --> 0:36:46.600
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, me too, me too, absolutely, So I think that,

0:36:46.760 --> 0:36:49.319
<v Speaker 11>you know, when we think about how this vaccine will do,

0:36:49.680 --> 0:36:53.000
<v Speaker 11>it's a real question mark because you have this push pull.

0:36:53.080 --> 0:36:56.040
<v Speaker 11>There's way more fear of blind disease, way more awareness

0:36:56.080 --> 0:36:58.319
<v Speaker 11>of it, and way more of the disease, but there's

0:36:58.320 --> 0:37:02.719
<v Speaker 11>also way more vaccine hesitancy, and given this shot is

0:37:02.760 --> 0:37:06.560
<v Speaker 11>so similar to limericks in many ways, if it can

0:37:06.600 --> 0:37:08.719
<v Speaker 11>be hard to read the tea LEAs and know how

0:37:08.840 --> 0:37:10.960
<v Speaker 11>all be received by the public once it's out there.

0:37:11.040 --> 0:37:12.799
<v Speaker 10>I'm trying to think if there was a way to

0:37:12.840 --> 0:37:17.520
<v Speaker 10>do this cover that looked like the Jaws movie poster,

0:37:17.800 --> 0:37:19.440
<v Speaker 10>you know, but with like a little tiny tick. I

0:37:19.440 --> 0:37:21.279
<v Speaker 10>don't think it's going to scare you in the same

0:37:21.320 --> 0:37:23.600
<v Speaker 10>way since the tick's so small. But you know, we

0:37:23.880 --> 0:37:26.799
<v Speaker 10>did our best, so okay. So Pfizer's got this partnership

0:37:27.400 --> 0:37:33.000
<v Speaker 10>with Valneva, they are not alone. Moderna has also got

0:37:33.000 --> 0:37:36.080
<v Speaker 10>an mRNA based thing that maybe is a little farther

0:37:36.080 --> 0:37:38.680
<v Speaker 10>along since the Pfizer efforts in Phase three trials, Christen,

0:37:38.760 --> 0:37:43.360
<v Speaker 10>But how big of an opportunity does Pharma think this

0:37:43.480 --> 0:37:44.200
<v Speaker 10>vaccine could be?

0:37:45.560 --> 0:37:47.239
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, I mean I think that there's a lot of

0:37:47.360 --> 0:37:49.799
<v Speaker 11>a lot of enthusiasm. I think that we think that

0:37:49.840 --> 0:37:52.600
<v Speaker 11>this could be not we think I think that there

0:37:52.760 --> 0:37:56.840
<v Speaker 11>is suspicion that this could be a really big market,

0:37:57.080 --> 0:38:02.400
<v Speaker 11>especially because lime is not in the Northeast now right

0:38:03.040 --> 0:38:07.040
<v Speaker 11>because of global warming, Because you know, population has just

0:38:07.200 --> 0:38:11.920
<v Speaker 11>grown and we've moved into heavily wooded areas and built

0:38:12.000 --> 0:38:15.719
<v Speaker 11>housing tracks there. You know, we encountered ticks more, and

0:38:15.760 --> 0:38:18.759
<v Speaker 11>we encounter them all up and down the East Coast,

0:38:18.760 --> 0:38:21.319
<v Speaker 11>we encounter them in the Midwest. We encountered them in California,

0:38:21.320 --> 0:38:25.800
<v Speaker 11>where I'm from now, So there's national awareness and concern

0:38:25.880 --> 0:38:29.560
<v Speaker 11>about this now too. But like I said, at the

0:38:29.560 --> 0:38:33.440
<v Speaker 11>same time, I don't think that we should underestimate how

0:38:33.840 --> 0:38:38.319
<v Speaker 11>scared many people are of vaccines, how suspicious they are

0:38:38.360 --> 0:38:40.760
<v Speaker 11>of them in the aftermath a lot of pandemic.

0:38:41.400 --> 0:38:44.800
<v Speaker 3>Sorry go ahead, no, no, don't be sorry. This is incredible, Kristen.

0:38:44.920 --> 0:38:46.759
<v Speaker 3>You know what's also interesting. I was going to kind

0:38:46.760 --> 0:38:48.480
<v Speaker 3>of make a joke because once it hits you know,

0:38:48.840 --> 0:38:51.080
<v Speaker 3>one of the real Housewives of Beverly Hills, then it's

0:38:51.080 --> 0:38:51.800
<v Speaker 3>a real story.

0:38:52.040 --> 0:38:53.600
<v Speaker 2>But there actually has.

0:38:53.480 --> 0:38:55.239
<v Speaker 3>Been a lot of celebrities. I mean that was a

0:38:55.280 --> 0:38:58.440
<v Speaker 3>whole story arc, and I think we are increasingly seeing

0:38:58.480 --> 0:39:01.319
<v Speaker 3>I've known people who work and elsewhere. I think we

0:39:01.360 --> 0:39:03.479
<v Speaker 3>all know somebody. But there's been a lot of high

0:39:03.480 --> 0:39:08.160
<v Speaker 3>profile people Alec Baldwin, Amy Schumer, Ben Stiller, like some

0:39:08.280 --> 0:39:10.520
<v Speaker 3>other famous people who have come out and talked about

0:39:10.520 --> 0:39:11.399
<v Speaker 3>the impact of it.

0:39:12.840 --> 0:39:15.160
<v Speaker 11>Yes, absolutely, I mean I have a very close friend

0:39:15.160 --> 0:39:18.520
<v Speaker 11>who suffers from what is now called post treatment line

0:39:18.600 --> 0:39:22.080
<v Speaker 11>and watching her battle it is one of the reasons

0:39:22.200 --> 0:39:25.120
<v Speaker 11>I got so interested in this in the first place.

0:39:25.160 --> 0:39:28.680
<v Speaker 11>I'm an outdoors woman and I have peeled many a

0:39:28.760 --> 0:39:33.239
<v Speaker 11>tick off my body and every time just crossed my fingers.

0:39:33.680 --> 0:39:38.080
<v Speaker 11>And I think people are are tired of just, you know,

0:39:38.440 --> 0:39:40.840
<v Speaker 11>facing the question of do I want to go for

0:39:40.920 --> 0:39:44.040
<v Speaker 11>a nice hike and risk getting lines easier? Do I

0:39:44.080 --> 0:39:46.239
<v Speaker 11>want to stand play today? I think lots and lots

0:39:46.280 --> 0:39:48.560
<v Speaker 11>of people are tired of a way.

0:39:48.840 --> 0:39:51.719
<v Speaker 10>I'm tired of waiting to But do I really have

0:39:51.719 --> 0:39:53.760
<v Speaker 10>to wait three more years?

0:39:54.280 --> 0:39:57.600
<v Speaker 11>I think Unfortunately, Yes, the projections are this will hit

0:39:57.600 --> 0:39:58.879
<v Speaker 11>the market in twenty twenty six.

0:40:00.280 --> 0:40:03.160
<v Speaker 4>You know what, maybe you could sign up to be

0:40:03.200 --> 0:40:04.279
<v Speaker 4>al in the clinical try.

0:40:04.360 --> 0:40:07.400
<v Speaker 10>I mean, there's hope right there, don't don't. Don't go

0:40:07.440 --> 0:40:09.960
<v Speaker 10>to the stuff at home for my dog. You're welcome

0:40:10.040 --> 0:40:10.200
<v Speaker 10>to you.

0:40:11.520 --> 0:40:14.520
<v Speaker 4>Still it works, It works, going to.

0:40:14.560 --> 0:40:16.319
<v Speaker 10>Go down about as easily as I'm sure it goes

0:40:16.360 --> 0:40:17.040
<v Speaker 10>down for your dog.

0:40:18.920 --> 0:40:21.760
<v Speaker 3>Incredible reporting and so timely, Kristin.

0:40:21.840 --> 0:40:25.080
<v Speaker 2>Thank you so much. Kristin Brown, healthcare reporter at Bloomberg News.

0:40:25.080 --> 0:40:27.439
<v Speaker 3>This is the domestic cover story of the new issue

0:40:27.480 --> 0:40:29.640
<v Speaker 3>of Bloomberg business Week, which is out on newsstands now,

0:40:29.760 --> 0:40:32.680
<v Speaker 3>on the Bloomberg and at Bloomberg dot com, Slash business Week,

0:40:32.719 --> 0:40:35.200
<v Speaker 3>and of course, as always are thanks to the editor

0:40:35.280 --> 0:40:36.600
<v Speaker 3>of BusinessWeek, Jill Weber.

0:40:36.440 --> 0:40:39.319
<v Speaker 4>Joel if you had to pick ticks off? Is that

0:40:39.360 --> 0:40:40.440
<v Speaker 4>a personal question there?

0:40:40.960 --> 0:40:43.640
<v Speaker 10>It's inevitable if you live in the Northeast, you find

0:40:43.719 --> 0:40:44.200
<v Speaker 10>ticks on you.

0:40:45.000 --> 0:40:46.799
<v Speaker 3>I've spent hours picking him off my dog.

0:40:46.920 --> 0:40:50.120
<v Speaker 2>It's not fun, not fun. Medicine doesn't always work. All right, guys,

0:40:50.520 --> 0:40:52.000
<v Speaker 2>this is Bloomberg Radio.

0:40:55.440 --> 0:40:57.440
<v Speaker 1>Brom.

0:40:58.840 --> 0:40:59.520
<v Speaker 8>A Journal.

0:41:00.560 --> 0:41:01.520
<v Speaker 3>How about you let me drive?

0:41:01.800 --> 0:41:03.799
<v Speaker 10>Oh no, no, no, no, who's gone drive?

0:41:04.080 --> 0:41:07.279
<v Speaker 1>Honey? Please, I'll do the riding gravels.

0:41:07.719 --> 0:41:09.080
<v Speaker 7>Let's mate, I want to try it.

0:41:11.360 --> 0:41:12.799
<v Speaker 6>It's the question that.

0:41:16.040 --> 0:41:19.560
<v Speaker 1>This is the drive to the globe punk thing well

0:41:19.600 --> 0:41:22.480
<v Speaker 1>by around yeld Down on Bluebird Radio.

0:41:22.800 --> 0:41:25.440
<v Speaker 3>All Right, just got under eighteen minutes left in today's

0:41:25.480 --> 0:41:28.680
<v Speaker 3>trading session, and we've got an interesting one, Charlie, of course,

0:41:28.760 --> 0:41:31.279
<v Speaker 3>just breaking down the numbers. Equities near their loads of

0:41:31.280 --> 0:41:33.880
<v Speaker 3>the session, despite those blowout numbers from Nvidia.

0:41:34.080 --> 0:41:34.719
<v Speaker 2>It is way off.

0:41:34.760 --> 0:41:38.400
<v Speaker 3>It's high, and you've got the Nasdaq way off. It's high,

0:41:38.440 --> 0:41:40.720
<v Speaker 3>as we heard, down about one point six percent.

0:41:40.840 --> 0:41:44.040
<v Speaker 2>So it's a very risk off trade today.

0:41:43.880 --> 0:41:46.160
<v Speaker 4>The opposite of what we saw from yesterday. Carol, Yeah,

0:41:46.280 --> 0:41:48.520
<v Speaker 4>you know, how did you describe it? Everything is awesome.

0:41:49.320 --> 0:41:51.640
<v Speaker 3>It was broad based buy like you really saw it,

0:41:52.400 --> 0:41:55.759
<v Speaker 3>and you really saw investors moving in. It's interesting though,

0:41:55.800 --> 0:41:57.000
<v Speaker 3>it does feel like a little bit of a wait

0:41:57.040 --> 0:41:59.080
<v Speaker 3>and see mode. We got some strong economic news. We

0:41:59.120 --> 0:42:02.200
<v Speaker 3>talked about that with Mike here in the US. Expectations

0:42:02.200 --> 0:42:04.160
<v Speaker 3>for some strong economic growth. We see that from the

0:42:04.160 --> 0:42:08.080
<v Speaker 3>Atlanta Fed. And so what does it mean ultimately from

0:42:08.160 --> 0:42:11.759
<v Speaker 3>Fed members? Worries about inflation picking up again? So does

0:42:11.840 --> 0:42:14.120
<v Speaker 3>Ja Powell have to be a little bit more hawkish

0:42:14.200 --> 0:42:15.080
<v Speaker 3>than Duvish Tomorrow?

0:42:15.200 --> 0:42:17.000
<v Speaker 4>We 's see what's top of mind for our next guest.

0:42:17.080 --> 0:42:19.880
<v Speaker 4>Nadia Lovell is a senior US equity strategist at UBS

0:42:19.920 --> 0:42:22.239
<v Speaker 4>Global Wealth Management. She joins us on Zoom once again

0:42:22.280 --> 0:42:23.640
<v Speaker 4>from New York City, Natia, how are.

0:42:23.640 --> 0:42:26.839
<v Speaker 9>You, I well, thanks for having me.

0:42:26.920 --> 0:42:29.480
<v Speaker 4>It's good to have you back. What's top of mind

0:42:29.480 --> 0:42:31.040
<v Speaker 4>for you on a day like today when we're seeing

0:42:31.120 --> 0:42:31.760
<v Speaker 4>such a selloff.

0:42:33.560 --> 0:42:35.879
<v Speaker 9>I think we are more focused on, of course, what's going.

0:42:35.800 --> 0:42:38.080
<v Speaker 12>To happen at Jackson Hole tomorrow, and then of course

0:42:38.160 --> 0:42:40.840
<v Speaker 12>next week will be labor market data. I think what

0:42:40.880 --> 0:42:43.200
<v Speaker 12>we're seeing in the market right now is that this

0:42:43.400 --> 0:42:46.160
<v Speaker 12>pullback on risk off center. And remember, liquidity is kind

0:42:46.160 --> 0:42:48.319
<v Speaker 12>of low this time of year, in August, and so

0:42:48.360 --> 0:42:50.239
<v Speaker 12>it's not surprising to see people take a little bit

0:42:50.280 --> 0:42:53.040
<v Speaker 12>of risk off of the table ahead of the I'll

0:42:53.080 --> 0:42:54.839
<v Speaker 12>come and Labor Day Aliday.

0:42:55.080 --> 0:42:56.440
<v Speaker 9>So I think that's what you're seeing.

0:42:56.480 --> 0:42:59.319
<v Speaker 3>To be honest, I do feel like we're all like

0:42:59.480 --> 0:43:01.600
<v Speaker 3>so tired figuring out what will if they do, what

0:43:01.640 --> 0:43:03.799
<v Speaker 3>won't they do? Like it doesn't get us anywhere, right

0:43:03.800 --> 0:43:05.400
<v Speaker 3>because ultimately, if that's going to do, what it's going

0:43:05.440 --> 0:43:08.879
<v Speaker 3>to do when it meets next Nattie at it's a

0:43:08.880 --> 0:43:09.760
<v Speaker 3>September meeting.

0:43:09.920 --> 0:43:12.080
<v Speaker 2>So what do you think is constructive?

0:43:12.120 --> 0:43:14.200
<v Speaker 3>What is the data that you look for whether it's

0:43:14.239 --> 0:43:17.640
<v Speaker 3>economic data, whether it's valuations, whether it's an earnings report,

0:43:17.840 --> 0:43:21.239
<v Speaker 3>whether it's technicals. What is it that says to you

0:43:21.400 --> 0:43:25.640
<v Speaker 3>something interesting and productive is happening to the upside or downside.

0:43:26.040 --> 0:43:28.280
<v Speaker 3>When it comes to the trade.

0:43:28.920 --> 0:43:31.960
<v Speaker 12>We are very much focused on the earnings outlook. I

0:43:32.040 --> 0:43:34.520
<v Speaker 12>think you make a great point in terms of the

0:43:34.600 --> 0:43:37.160
<v Speaker 12>macro having dominated a lot of stuff this year, But

0:43:37.200 --> 0:43:39.200
<v Speaker 12>I think that you're now moving to our stage where

0:43:39.400 --> 0:43:40.560
<v Speaker 12>the earnest outlook is going.

0:43:40.560 --> 0:43:41.719
<v Speaker 9>To matter even more.

0:43:41.840 --> 0:43:44.759
<v Speaker 12>We know that valuation levels are quite elevated this year.

0:43:44.840 --> 0:43:47.400
<v Speaker 12>Much of the market performance has been driven by that.

0:43:47.840 --> 0:43:50.200
<v Speaker 12>I would say, in terms about our review on the ernestago,

0:43:50.320 --> 0:43:52.600
<v Speaker 12>we think it has improved a bit coming out of

0:43:52.600 --> 0:43:55.040
<v Speaker 12>a second quarter. We do think that the earnings recession

0:43:55.040 --> 0:43:57.080
<v Speaker 12>that we've been called in force it's last year is

0:43:57.120 --> 0:43:59.319
<v Speaker 12>now behind us, as the second quarter probably marks the

0:43:59.360 --> 0:44:02.400
<v Speaker 12>trough and earning. So we're looking for recovering the second

0:44:02.400 --> 0:44:05.080
<v Speaker 12>half of the year for a full year of about.

0:44:04.840 --> 0:44:06.080
<v Speaker 9>Roughly flat earnings.

0:44:06.080 --> 0:44:07.920
<v Speaker 12>But we think a lot of this is already priced

0:44:07.960 --> 0:44:10.600
<v Speaker 12>in at this stage, just given how elevated valuations are.

0:44:10.840 --> 0:44:12.320
<v Speaker 4>I want to go back to what you said about

0:44:12.400 --> 0:44:15.160
<v Speaker 4>all eyes on Jackson Hole. What are you going to?

0:44:15.239 --> 0:44:17.759
<v Speaker 4>What do you expect to hear from j Powell that

0:44:17.880 --> 0:44:19.160
<v Speaker 4>could move markets?

0:44:20.680 --> 0:44:23.160
<v Speaker 12>I think we expect to hear a little, certainly a

0:44:23.160 --> 0:44:26.600
<v Speaker 12>little bit of more hawkish tone from J Powell compared

0:44:26.640 --> 0:44:29.200
<v Speaker 12>to when market expectations might be. We do think though,

0:44:29.280 --> 0:44:31.799
<v Speaker 12>that the last rake hike was the July meeting. We're

0:44:31.800 --> 0:44:33.839
<v Speaker 12>looking for the terminal rate to settle in right where

0:44:33.840 --> 0:44:35.839
<v Speaker 12>it is at five and a quarter of five and

0:44:35.840 --> 0:44:38.400
<v Speaker 12>a half percent, but we can't real at the possibility

0:44:38.440 --> 0:44:40.720
<v Speaker 12>of another rake hike. We know that the macro data

0:44:40.960 --> 0:44:44.000
<v Speaker 12>has been coming in stronger than expected, and so that

0:44:44.000 --> 0:44:46.640
<v Speaker 12>could give the bad sum world go room to do

0:44:46.719 --> 0:44:49.359
<v Speaker 12>additional one additional high lator this year. We know that

0:44:49.360 --> 0:44:52.040
<v Speaker 12>that's already sort of their base case in from the

0:44:52.120 --> 0:44:55.719
<v Speaker 12>June SEP. But the Fed does recognize that there's longer

0:44:55.880 --> 0:44:58.720
<v Speaker 12>ary of relaxed to their monetary policy, and this cycle

0:44:58.800 --> 0:45:02.000
<v Speaker 12>is so unique it's very difficult to determine what those

0:45:02.080 --> 0:45:03.799
<v Speaker 12>lags will be and how long it will be left.

0:45:04.040 --> 0:45:06.640
<v Speaker 12>But I think the focus is more around how long

0:45:07.040 --> 0:45:09.280
<v Speaker 12>does the FED stay at these levels?

0:45:09.320 --> 0:45:10.600
<v Speaker 9>How long does rate stay high?

0:45:10.640 --> 0:45:12.799
<v Speaker 12>And we don't think an additional twenty five basis points

0:45:12.920 --> 0:45:14.120
<v Speaker 12>is going to break the camel back.

0:45:14.120 --> 0:45:16.600
<v Speaker 9>It's more how long that load stays on the camels.

0:45:17.080 --> 0:45:17.560
<v Speaker 2>Tim knows.

0:45:17.560 --> 0:45:18.960
<v Speaker 3>I'm like, I'm going to kill you for going back

0:45:19.000 --> 0:45:19.560
<v Speaker 3>to FED talk.

0:45:19.719 --> 0:45:21.960
<v Speaker 4>She like she I have surprised she didn't kill while

0:45:22.120 --> 0:45:23.000
<v Speaker 4>giving answer.

0:45:22.800 --> 0:45:23.200
<v Speaker 6>Kidding me.

0:45:23.680 --> 0:45:25.680
<v Speaker 2>So wait, So what you say.

0:45:26.200 --> 0:45:27.120
<v Speaker 4>We're done with Nvidia?

0:45:27.160 --> 0:45:31.600
<v Speaker 3>Cares there since you went there to Nadia? So I mean,

0:45:31.640 --> 0:45:36.040
<v Speaker 3>do you feel confident enough and your thinking about monetary

0:45:36.080 --> 0:45:39.239
<v Speaker 3>policy in the US and what US central bankers will

0:45:39.239 --> 0:45:43.680
<v Speaker 3>do to trade on it or no?

0:45:43.800 --> 0:45:44.560
<v Speaker 9>At this stage?

0:45:44.800 --> 0:45:47.400
<v Speaker 12>No, I mean we think that, like I said, we

0:45:47.440 --> 0:45:49.920
<v Speaker 12>think that the FED is done, and we do expect

0:45:49.960 --> 0:45:53.000
<v Speaker 12>that rate cuts will happen in twenty twenty four, and

0:45:53.320 --> 0:45:56.040
<v Speaker 12>the markets keeps pushing those out at this point.

0:45:56.080 --> 0:45:58.080
<v Speaker 9>So we think that the sort of you know in lane.

0:45:57.960 --> 0:46:01.000
<v Speaker 12>With market expectations, and it's less more about like what

0:46:01.040 --> 0:46:04.080
<v Speaker 12>the fat does and actually how the economy does in

0:46:04.160 --> 0:46:06.680
<v Speaker 12>response to the fat, what the fat has already done.

0:46:08.440 --> 0:46:10.840
<v Speaker 3>So are you worried about consumers? Because I think about

0:46:10.840 --> 0:46:13.680
<v Speaker 3>student debt. I think about you know, all those balance

0:46:13.719 --> 0:46:16.560
<v Speaker 3>sheets that we're doing so well, and you know, credit card,

0:46:17.320 --> 0:46:18.600
<v Speaker 3>whether it's Macy's.

0:46:18.680 --> 0:46:21.280
<v Speaker 4>What do they say about delinquencies rising faster than expected?

0:46:21.440 --> 0:46:22.440
<v Speaker 9>Right, exactly.

0:46:22.680 --> 0:46:24.960
<v Speaker 3>So that's the thing that you know, we know how

0:46:24.960 --> 0:46:28.520
<v Speaker 3>important the consumer is in terms of our US economy here,

0:46:28.560 --> 0:46:29.719
<v Speaker 3>So how do you think about that?

0:46:31.120 --> 0:46:33.240
<v Speaker 9>You know, we're getting a mixed picture of the consumer.

0:46:33.320 --> 0:46:36.160
<v Speaker 12>We know that July retail sale is really overshot to

0:46:36.200 --> 0:46:38.640
<v Speaker 12>the upside. I would say, even throughout their owning season,

0:46:38.640 --> 0:46:41.680
<v Speaker 12>we've been hearing some concerns around this consumer, even from

0:46:41.719 --> 0:46:45.080
<v Speaker 12>the consumer product companies. Consumers are becoming more measured and

0:46:45.120 --> 0:46:48.120
<v Speaker 12>targeted with their spending and it's becoming difficult to pass

0:46:48.120 --> 0:46:51.040
<v Speaker 12>along those price increases and as you noted, the retail

0:46:51.120 --> 0:46:54.799
<v Speaker 12>sale environment reach our earnings this past week. I would say,

0:46:54.880 --> 0:46:56.799
<v Speaker 12>some of these companies we have to recognize that they

0:46:56.880 --> 0:46:59.240
<v Speaker 12>do have some idiosyncratic issues.

0:46:59.320 --> 0:47:00.239
<v Speaker 9>But you know, there are.

0:47:00.280 --> 0:47:02.520
<v Speaker 12>Clearly podcasts of weakness when we are looking at the

0:47:02.640 --> 0:47:06.200
<v Speaker 12>credit card delinquency data, and also delinquency rates have been

0:47:06.600 --> 0:47:09.600
<v Speaker 12>picking up in auto loans, and of course, as you mentioned, uh,

0:47:09.800 --> 0:47:14.520
<v Speaker 12>you know, resumption of student debt repayment in October is

0:47:14.560 --> 0:47:17.040
<v Speaker 12>a potential headwind. But I would say, given the labor

0:47:17.120 --> 0:47:20.120
<v Speaker 12>market is so strong, we're not overly concerned about the consumer.

0:47:20.239 --> 0:47:22.520
<v Speaker 12>We do expect the consumer spending too slow, but we

0:47:22.560 --> 0:47:23.440
<v Speaker 12>don't expect.

0:47:23.160 --> 0:47:24.320
<v Speaker 9>It to fall off of a cliff.

0:47:24.760 --> 0:47:27.600
<v Speaker 4>It's almost like, you know, the first, the favorite word

0:47:27.840 --> 0:47:31.439
<v Speaker 4>Carol of executives and press releases is AI this quarter

0:47:31.480 --> 0:47:32.080
<v Speaker 4>and last quarter.

0:47:32.280 --> 0:47:32.400
<v Speaker 9>Right.

0:47:32.760 --> 0:47:35.960
<v Speaker 4>Second, the favorite word for retailers is shrinkage. That's the

0:47:36.040 --> 0:47:39.520
<v Speaker 4>industry term. It's true, it's the industry term that refers

0:47:39.520 --> 0:47:41.600
<v Speaker 4>to just throw it all in. Well, it's the industry

0:47:41.719 --> 0:47:43.640
<v Speaker 4>term that refers to, yeah, the kitchen sink to everything,

0:47:43.680 --> 0:47:46.560
<v Speaker 4>but it includes theft. And I'm wondering, Nadia, if if

0:47:46.719 --> 0:47:49.680
<v Speaker 4>if that how you read into that? Is that a

0:47:49.800 --> 0:47:52.440
<v Speaker 4>sign of what's happening in the economy or do you

0:47:52.480 --> 0:47:54.840
<v Speaker 4>think it's a it's a way that these these companies

0:47:54.920 --> 0:47:58.400
<v Speaker 4>can blame poor sales or poor margins.

0:47:59.719 --> 0:48:01.719
<v Speaker 9>No, we do think that shrink is real.

0:48:01.800 --> 0:48:04.160
<v Speaker 12>It's been an issue for quite some time, you know,

0:48:04.320 --> 0:48:07.040
<v Speaker 12>and it's become even more organized. It's not your everyday

0:48:07.080 --> 0:48:09.399
<v Speaker 12>consumer that's walking in and just walking out with things

0:48:09.440 --> 0:48:12.080
<v Speaker 12>onto their shouloads without pain for it. So we do

0:48:12.239 --> 0:48:14.840
<v Speaker 12>think it is an issue, and you know, maybe AI

0:48:15.000 --> 0:48:17.279
<v Speaker 12>can help and technology can help solve some of these

0:48:17.360 --> 0:48:18.520
<v Speaker 12>issues for the retailers.

0:48:18.640 --> 0:48:21.640
<v Speaker 9>But about outside of that, we do think that there

0:48:21.719 --> 0:48:22.440
<v Speaker 9>is clearly.

0:48:22.239 --> 0:48:25.600
<v Speaker 12>Softening indiscretionary spending and some of these retailers are being

0:48:25.640 --> 0:48:26.320
<v Speaker 12>affected by that.

0:48:27.200 --> 0:48:27.480
<v Speaker 9>Also.

0:48:27.680 --> 0:48:30.320
<v Speaker 12>You know, you know, we've seen a pickup in online

0:48:30.360 --> 0:48:34.839
<v Speaker 12>sales in July, dominated by Prime Day, so I think

0:48:34.920 --> 0:48:37.160
<v Speaker 12>that there's been some loss of market share there as well.

0:48:37.200 --> 0:48:38.719
<v Speaker 3>All right, we're gonna leave it on that note, Nadia,

0:48:38.760 --> 0:48:41.000
<v Speaker 3>I take care. I know it's only Thursday, but I

0:48:41.040 --> 0:48:43.280
<v Speaker 3>know the weekends just around the corner. So into hers

0:48:43.600 --> 0:48:46.680
<v Speaker 3>Nattie Levell level. She is senior US Equity Strategies at

0:48:46.760 --> 0:48:48.879
<v Speaker 3>UBS Global Wealth Management amzoom in New York City.

0:48:49.520 --> 0:48:54.360
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0:48:54.560 --> 0:48:58.000
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