WEBVTT - Operation 1027 and the Mandalay PDF 0:00:01.760 --> 0:00:02.920 Calls media. 0:00:03.640 --> 0:00:06.760 Hello everyone, it's me James, and I am joining you 0:00:06.800 --> 0:00:11.200 today for another and long series of the little recordings 0:00:11.240 --> 0:00:14.280 where I ask you to give us your money. Once again, 0:00:14.360 --> 0:00:16.320 I am asking you to support the mutual aid work 0:00:16.360 --> 0:00:19.400 being done at the border. I'm recording this in November, 0:00:19.960 --> 0:00:23.560 and this week we have terrible weather forecasts that will 0:00:24.079 --> 0:00:27.400 make conditions in her Cumba extremely dangerous for people who 0:00:27.400 --> 0:00:30.440 are detained out there by the Department of Homeland Security. 0:00:30.880 --> 0:00:33.640 It will mean that it's no exaggeration to say that 0:00:33.640 --> 0:00:36.240 people's lives will be at risk, and that the important 0:00:36.320 --> 0:00:39.320 mutual aid work that's already been done will only become 0:00:39.360 --> 0:00:42.040 more important as we get rain, we get snow, and 0:00:42.080 --> 0:00:44.560 we get cold temperatures, and people continue to be detained 0:00:44.600 --> 0:00:48.920 without shelter, food, water, or adequate clothing. If you would 0:00:48.960 --> 0:00:51.320 like to support those efforts, you can find the way 0:00:51.360 --> 0:00:56.480 to do so at link tree slash Border Kindness. There's 0:00:56.520 --> 0:00:59.240 a dot before the ee, so it's l I n 0:00:59.440 --> 0:01:03.600 k t E R dot e E slash Border Kindness. 0:01:03.640 --> 0:01:05.720 I'll suppose a link on my Twitter if you'd like 0:01:05.760 --> 0:01:48.000 to find it there. Thank you. In the week since 0:01:48.040 --> 0:01:50.760 the end of October, the conflict landscape in Miamma has 0:01:50.760 --> 0:01:54.640 significantly changed. The Hunter and its alignment issues have taken 0:01:54.680 --> 0:01:58.120 unprecedented losses in the PDF, as well as several ethnic 0:01:58.160 --> 0:02:03.240 revolutionary organizations have swept across the country, seizing bases, weapons, tanks, 0:02:03.280 --> 0:02:06.800 and even towns and cities. As the offensive was ongoing, 0:02:07.160 --> 0:02:10.560 I spoke to Sire montine A, leader in the madelid PDF, 0:02:10.960 --> 0:02:13.600 and Billy Ford of the United States Institute for Peace. 0:02:14.440 --> 0:02:17.239 What follows is my conversation with Billy and some insights 0:02:17.240 --> 0:02:19.560 on a situation on the ground with the madel Ai PDF. 0:02:20.280 --> 0:02:23.560 You'll hear more from Sire Montiney in another episode that 0:02:23.639 --> 0:02:25.680 we're working on, but I wanted you to hear his 0:02:25.760 --> 0:02:29.239 personal on the ground perspective now as well. First, I 0:02:29.360 --> 0:02:32.800 let nine nine, the translator from mandele A PDF, introduce 0:02:32.840 --> 0:02:33.240 our guest. 0:02:33.760 --> 0:02:35.440 Oh yeah, Layes. 0:02:36.200 --> 0:02:42.200 He is the leader of the Commanding and Cohesion team, 0:02:42.360 --> 0:02:44.000 and you can also. 0:02:43.800 --> 0:02:46.839 Say that he the leader of our organization. 0:02:47.480 --> 0:02:49.600 To start with, I asked Billy to explain for you 0:02:49.639 --> 0:02:52.119 the developments in the conflict in the last few weeks. 0:02:52.440 --> 0:02:55.040 I mean, it's really been just the past, what is 0:02:55.080 --> 0:02:59.280 it since the twenty seven so thirteen days kind of 0:02:59.480 --> 0:03:03.800 a level whole change in the conflict trajectory. Whereas I'd say, 0:03:03.880 --> 0:03:06.520 I mean you got coup February first, twenty twenty one, 0:03:06.760 --> 0:03:11.239 major military operate resistance operations began September seventh, twenty twenty one, 0:03:11.639 --> 0:03:16.280 and frankly since then it's been more or less incremental change. 0:03:16.560 --> 0:03:19.480 You can, I wouldn't characterize it as a stalemate as 0:03:19.520 --> 0:03:24.680 many have, but there's there's essentially been, you know, small 0:03:25.040 --> 0:03:28.520 pockets of progress where the resistance is capturing territory, but 0:03:28.680 --> 0:03:34.480 all almost exclusively rural areas of the country. And then 0:03:34.720 --> 0:03:41.600 things changed radically on October twenty seventh, when whereas before 0:03:41.760 --> 0:03:46.120 the twenty seventh you had a range of armed stakeholders 0:03:46.160 --> 0:03:50.320 involved in the conflicts, some under the deposed National Unity government, 0:03:51.200 --> 0:03:53.560 as well as what's called the K three C which 0:03:53.600 --> 0:03:57.120 is four of the biggest ethnic army organizations. But a 0:03:57.120 --> 0:03:59.960 lot a lot of the reason why we hadn't seen 0:04:00.280 --> 0:04:04.240 the level change in the military balance of power was 0:04:04.280 --> 0:04:06.400 because of the absence of some of the biggest and 0:04:06.480 --> 0:04:10.000 most powerful armed organizations that had more or less state 0:04:10.040 --> 0:04:13.760 on the sidelines. I mean they were arming and training 0:04:13.920 --> 0:04:17.920 resistance forces that were engaged in active combat, but they 0:04:18.000 --> 0:04:21.440 hadn't themselves in a meaningful way. But on the twenty 0:04:21.480 --> 0:04:26.760 seventh that totally changed. This alliance called the Brotherhood Alliance 0:04:26.760 --> 0:04:31.400 that involves three of the biggest armed organizations initiated coordinated 0:04:31.440 --> 0:04:35.360 attacks in Northern Shan State on the border with China 0:04:36.200 --> 0:04:40.040 and have since the twenty seventh. We're talking to you 0:04:40.080 --> 0:04:44.280 on the tenth here of November, one hundred and fifty 0:04:44.760 --> 0:04:49.240 posts have been taken. Seven towns are now under full 0:04:49.320 --> 0:04:54.960 resistance control, seven others by my counter under partial resistance control. 0:04:56.040 --> 0:04:59.120 And the operation in Northern Shan State on the border 0:04:59.560 --> 0:05:05.320 has effectively spurred resistance operations in other parts of the country, 0:05:06.240 --> 0:05:10.799 and so now you essentially have operations in all corners 0:05:11.160 --> 0:05:15.680 of the country. I mean, you've seen PDFs taking towns 0:05:15.720 --> 0:05:19.880 in sagaiin along the Indian border. You've seen the can 0:05:19.960 --> 0:05:24.479 you taking important towns on the logistics corridor on the 0:05:24.600 --> 0:05:28.880 Thai border. Karenni groups have moved into Meyse on the 0:05:28.960 --> 0:05:32.719 Thaie border with Kareni State. The Chin National Front has 0:05:33.040 --> 0:05:36.880 initiated attacks in Balatwa and Southern Chin State near the 0:05:36.920 --> 0:05:42.720 Bangladesh India border. Yeah, so it's really just the trajectory 0:05:42.720 --> 0:05:46.400 of conflict has gone from an incremental trajectory where it's 0:05:46.440 --> 0:05:48.479 like this is a slow burn that could last a 0:05:48.480 --> 0:05:52.560 long time to a we need to start thinking about 0:05:52.680 --> 0:05:57.320 potentially day after. I mean, nothing is a given, and 0:05:57.400 --> 0:06:01.040 the Minama military has been resils in the past, but 0:06:01.080 --> 0:06:03.320 it does feel like this is a historic moment in 0:06:03.400 --> 0:06:06.880 a lot of ways, and the military is weakened in 0:06:06.920 --> 0:06:10.040 a way that we've really never seen in the history 0:06:10.080 --> 0:06:10.719 of the country. 0:06:11.560 --> 0:06:14.279 I asked Montiney to explain a little about how he 0:06:14.360 --> 0:06:17.719 got to a point where his force, who hadn't fought 0:06:17.720 --> 0:06:20.720 it all in twenty twenty one, we're able to fight 0:06:20.720 --> 0:06:23.800 alongside the eros and did a serious defeat to the junta. 0:06:24.360 --> 0:06:31.320 So in twenty one March he decided to go for 0:06:31.520 --> 0:06:34.600 the unrevolutions and then he started reading the books about 0:06:34.640 --> 0:06:39.320 the military and tactics and then warfare things. And then 0:06:39.400 --> 0:06:42.920 he said that he is still learning and reading from 0:06:43.000 --> 0:06:49.279 the books about the military tactics till now. And one 0:06:49.279 --> 0:06:54.240 more thing is we are having some problems about the 0:06:54.440 --> 0:06:59.440 other rebirth defense for dif that they don't have the 0:06:59.680 --> 0:07:05.120 well farming and then they don't follow the code of 0:07:05.200 --> 0:07:10.080 context or something like that. So we organize well that 0:07:10.480 --> 0:07:16.520 we won't become a blood dirsty organization, but just to 0:07:16.680 --> 0:07:22.040 fight for the military pool. And one more thing is 0:07:22.280 --> 0:07:26.800 we are following the two CEOC, which is a code 0:07:26.840 --> 0:07:33.440 of conduct and then chain of commands before we bomb 0:07:33.560 --> 0:07:33.880 up us. 0:07:34.000 --> 0:07:37.360 The these military organizations, a. 0:07:37.440 --> 0:07:39.800 Number of the Eros or Acnams you won't have heard before, 0:07:39.880 --> 0:07:42.160 and that's because they haven't been part of the conflict before. 0:07:42.440 --> 0:07:44.720 So I asked Billy to explain who the Eros in 0:07:44.760 --> 0:07:47.640 the north were and how and why are they identityfied now? 0:07:48.240 --> 0:07:53.440 Sure? So, the ark On Army is a kind ethnic 0:07:54.120 --> 0:07:59.320 based armed organization. They're based on the China border, but 0:07:59.720 --> 0:08:01.880 for the who know memr geography or kind state is 0:08:01.880 --> 0:08:04.520 actually on the complete other side of the country. But this, 0:08:04.840 --> 0:08:08.360 like many were like many newer armed organizations, they were 0:08:08.440 --> 0:08:13.920 essentially incubated by some of the longer term armed organizations. 0:08:13.920 --> 0:08:18.320 In this case, the Kachin Independence Army helped for the 0:08:18.320 --> 0:08:22.520 emergence of the Arakan Army, which has really grown in 0:08:22.600 --> 0:08:27.320 the past ten years into one of the strongest armed 0:08:27.320 --> 0:08:31.480 stakeholders in the country. Before the coup under the On 0:08:31.600 --> 0:08:37.480 Sansuchil National League for Democracy government they were in intense 0:08:37.480 --> 0:08:43.040 fighting with the MR military and on Sansuchi strongly supported 0:08:43.040 --> 0:08:46.160 the m R military's operations against the AA, and that 0:08:46.240 --> 0:08:47.880 kind of built some bad blood, as you might be 0:08:48.160 --> 0:08:51.840 might imagine, between the AA and the National League for Democracy, 0:08:52.160 --> 0:08:54.800 and that bad blood has made it difficult to build 0:08:54.880 --> 0:09:00.360 alliance across ethnic lines and with those resistance organizationations that 0:09:00.440 --> 0:09:03.680 involve NLD folks. But the key point here is that 0:09:03.720 --> 0:09:06.199 the AA is operating in two places, were Kind State 0:09:06.240 --> 0:09:09.800 and in Northern Shan State on the and Kachin State 0:09:10.360 --> 0:09:13.640 also actually it's a gay now but and they're an 0:09:13.679 --> 0:09:18.400 extremely powerful armed organization, highly disciplined, highly effective, well armed. 0:09:19.640 --> 0:09:23.800 The second group is the Ta'ang National Liberation Army. This 0:09:23.960 --> 0:09:27.280 is a an ethnic based army in northern Shan State 0:09:27.520 --> 0:09:36.200 that also is a relatively a newer armed organization. They 0:09:36.280 --> 0:09:41.280 it's it's a pretty complex military environment in Northern Shan 0:09:41.360 --> 0:09:44.600 State because the t n l A are often in 0:09:44.920 --> 0:09:49.320 tension with other Shan ethnic groups that are in Shan State, 0:09:49.400 --> 0:09:52.200 including the r c s S or the Shan State 0:09:52.360 --> 0:09:56.080 Army South, which is competing for control in other parts 0:09:56.440 --> 0:09:59.840 of Shan State. We've also seen some tension between the 0:10:00.080 --> 0:10:02.120 t n l A and the s s p P, 0:10:02.640 --> 0:10:07.400 which is another Northern Shan army that's closely aligned with 0:10:07.480 --> 0:10:12.280 the wah and Chinese. So that's a that's a pretty 0:10:12.320 --> 0:10:15.640 complex array of relationships there. But the t NLA is 0:10:15.679 --> 0:10:20.319 also an increasingly powerful armed organization one that administer Administer's 0:10:20.440 --> 0:10:24.440 territory and has also been locked in conflict with the 0:10:24.480 --> 0:10:28.480 MEMORY military for some time. The last group is the 0:10:28.600 --> 0:10:31.600 m n d a A the MEMR National Democratic Alliance 0:10:31.840 --> 0:10:37.320 Army UH. This is a Ko Kong ethnic based armed 0:10:37.400 --> 0:10:43.960 organization that for a long time controlled territory along the 0:10:44.040 --> 0:10:48.840 China border. In two thousand and nine, men Online who 0:10:48.880 --> 0:10:50.840 is now the commander in chief and the head of 0:10:52.480 --> 0:10:58.400 the SAC. He essentially was leading commands in north in 0:10:58.520 --> 0:11:01.640 the northeast and led operations to push the m n 0:11:01.720 --> 0:11:05.240 d a A out of that territory and replace it 0:11:05.600 --> 0:11:10.199 with a border guard force of another ethnic Ko Kong 0:11:10.440 --> 0:11:15.480 ethnic army. And we can get back to that. But 0:11:15.520 --> 0:11:19.080 that ethnic army became or is a criminal enterprise that's 0:11:19.120 --> 0:11:24.199 now operating massive scam and human trafficking operations with the 0:11:24.280 --> 0:11:28.319 support of the MR military. They're commissioned under the MEMR military, 0:11:29.240 --> 0:11:31.800 but I think a key point here is that there's 0:11:32.120 --> 0:11:34.360 it's very personal with the m n d a A 0:11:35.000 --> 0:11:38.920 and this Border Guard Force and and Men Online, and 0:11:39.000 --> 0:11:40.880 so this is really the m n d a A 0:11:41.080 --> 0:11:43.320 is an organization that has been pushing for a very 0:11:43.360 --> 0:11:47.800 long time to retake this territory and particularly this city 0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:52.760 of Lauchai. And so that that that three constitutes the 0:11:52.800 --> 0:11:57.720 Brotherhood Alliance. There's other stakeholders in this region, including the 0:11:57.840 --> 0:12:01.960 United Waw State Army, which is the largest armed organization 0:12:03.400 --> 0:12:08.720 in Myanmar, or non state armed organization as well, which 0:12:08.760 --> 0:12:12.440 is very closely tied with the Chinese. I mean they 0:12:12.480 --> 0:12:18.079 use Chinese currency, they speak Chinese, they fully administer their 0:12:18.440 --> 0:12:23.840 territory and autonomously. And then the other organizations that are 0:12:23.880 --> 0:12:26.079 relevant here is the National Democratic Alliance Army and d 0:12:26.200 --> 0:12:28.600 a A, which is essentially you can think of it 0:12:28.640 --> 0:12:32.079 as a closely tied with the law and the Chinese. 0:12:32.400 --> 0:12:35.400 And then the Kachin Independence Army, which is a Kachin 0:12:35.720 --> 0:12:42.080 ethnic based armed organization very much founded as a social 0:12:42.200 --> 0:12:44.360 services I mean it's it's kind of got a different 0:12:44.400 --> 0:12:46.720 identity from some of these other groups. It's very much 0:12:46.720 --> 0:12:52.920 like a revolutionary organization with political intentions. Uh, there's kind 0:12:52.960 --> 0:12:58.240 of Christian beliefs that are embedded within the organization. So yeah, 0:12:58.240 --> 0:13:00.800 I want to say it's a highly complex actors with 0:13:00.880 --> 0:13:04.880 different intentions and motivations, but in this particular case, they 0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:08.880 came together to at least the Brotherhood Alliance came together 0:13:08.880 --> 0:13:10.880 to launch this this coordinated attack. 0:13:11.640 --> 0:13:15.000 The T'ang National Liberation Army the group who received many 0:13:15.040 --> 0:13:17.360 of the young people of Mandalay who went on to 0:13:17.360 --> 0:13:21.200 form the Mandelaid PDF. Those young people started out as 0:13:21.200 --> 0:13:23.719 a strikeforce within Mandlay but there are only weapons on 0:13:23.760 --> 0:13:26.199 Molotov cocktails, and every action they took was the rest 0:13:26.280 --> 0:13:29.360 of their whole families if they were caught by march. 0:13:30.040 --> 0:13:33.560 A few weeks into the revolution, Montenay and others took 0:13:33.600 --> 0:13:36.480 to the mountains with the Tang National Liberation Army to 0:13:36.559 --> 0:13:40.079 learn to fight. Before the revolution, he said he had 0:13:40.080 --> 0:13:43.200 no experience and he didn't even play fighting video games. 0:13:43.800 --> 0:13:45.640 I asked him how it felt to be joining a 0:13:45.679 --> 0:13:48.120 group he'd been raised to hate and how he got there. 0:13:48.720 --> 0:13:54.439 Before we formed Manleay perif, we started as an MSDA, 0:13:54.720 --> 0:14:03.320 which is a Manlay four, the first training for our organizations, 0:14:05.120 --> 0:14:09.040 and at the time we only have a sam handmade 0:14:09.400 --> 0:14:15.280 weapons like Molotov, but we really don't use like handmade guns. 0:14:15.840 --> 0:14:20.720 But the after the support of TNLLY, we we got 0:14:20.720 --> 0:14:25.920 the automatic rifles with the help of our alliance and UH. 0:14:26.320 --> 0:14:31.320 At first when we act as a MSTF manally special 0:14:31.400 --> 0:14:37.080 Task Force, we restrict the rooms for not attaching to 0:14:37.240 --> 0:14:41.640 the schools or hospitals or the civilians. And then after 0:14:41.720 --> 0:14:46.520 that we start using the handmade weapons like just like Molotov. 0:14:47.160 --> 0:14:50.760 We didn't use any handguns at the time, but after 0:14:50.960 --> 0:14:55.160 that we trained UH and we contact with the atn 0:14:55.280 --> 0:14:59.280 l E. We have we now have the automatic rifles 0:14:59.360 --> 0:15:02.760 and then others UH missiles or something like that. 0:15:03.320 --> 0:15:03.560 Now. 0:15:04.160 --> 0:15:08.760 So when he decided to contact with the t n 0:15:08.880 --> 0:15:16.000 l E the Nasal, what he expected were nothing else 0:15:16.120 --> 0:15:20.920 but some few problems that about the racists because of 0:15:21.080 --> 0:15:25.760 most of the ethnic groups, they most of them they 0:15:25.800 --> 0:15:31.000 hate Bumbis people and they even called the Bambi's army. 0:15:31.720 --> 0:15:35.480 So he was explaining that we will be having a 0:15:35.560 --> 0:15:40.400 racist problems. But when he actually reached to the end 0:15:40.440 --> 0:15:43.920 region UH, he found out that there is no hatred 0:15:44.160 --> 0:15:48.160 to the Bombish people and then there was no problem 0:15:48.160 --> 0:15:50.000 about the racist problems. 0:15:50.560 --> 0:15:53.080 Yeah, he also thought that it's because of the. 0:15:53.040 --> 0:15:55.760 Communit comunication between the Bambi's. 0:15:55.760 --> 0:15:58.000 People and the Aloan. 0:15:58.080 --> 0:16:04.000 Racist Uhlan people. They provide tea, leaves and the other 0:16:06.440 --> 0:16:10.880 things to eat bambished people and then they make some 0:16:11.080 --> 0:16:15.960 tradings and then some they do some business with barbised people, 0:16:16.840 --> 0:16:20.960 so that there was no problem about that. But the 0:16:21.000 --> 0:16:25.360 only other thing was about the weather, because of the 0:16:25.840 --> 0:16:31.040 rough weather in the mountains, it's a very different weather 0:16:31.120 --> 0:16:35.200 from the like Manulee region. It's very cool for the 0:16:35.280 --> 0:16:42.080 people from the Manley region, the Manleys, Yeah, and in 0:16:42.240 --> 0:16:46.320 mountains it's very cold in here. So we still having 0:16:47.320 --> 0:16:51.560 problems about the weather problems, but now we are getting 0:16:51.640 --> 0:16:52.000 used to it. 0:16:52.760 --> 0:16:56.280 And he said that he is also surprised that t. 0:16:56.480 --> 0:17:01.120 N l A, the AD National Division Army is wealth 0:17:01.640 --> 0:17:05.439 all military and then they also following the code of 0:17:05.480 --> 0:17:10.240 conduct and then the following the democracy way and then 0:17:10.680 --> 0:17:13.399 most of the leaders from the t and LA of 0:17:13.560 --> 0:17:17.440 the liberal ideas and then they also one we work 0:17:17.480 --> 0:17:20.679 on to the young leaders. 0:17:19.560 --> 0:17:24.520 From the revolution for us. So see, he was surprised 0:17:24.520 --> 0:17:25.000 about that. 0:17:25.680 --> 0:17:28.120 Billy told me that this same dynamic HAULD occurred all 0:17:28.160 --> 0:17:30.320 over the country. And this is probably a good time 0:17:30.359 --> 0:17:32.760 to remind listeners that we've covered the formation of the 0:17:32.760 --> 0:17:36.120 PDFs and our two previous series about Memmar and if 0:17:36.119 --> 0:17:37.520 you haven't had the time to listen to those, I 0:17:37.560 --> 0:17:39.359 really hope you do because it'll make this one a 0:17:39.400 --> 0:17:41.920 lot more interesting and this one probably won't make much 0:17:41.920 --> 0:17:42.680 sense without it. 0:17:42.880 --> 0:17:45.480 Yeah, and I think this is really a key dynamic, 0:17:45.760 --> 0:17:48.200 and we can come back to the conversation maybe about 0:17:48.760 --> 0:17:54.440 day after the political dimensions of the conflict, but there's 0:17:55.840 --> 0:18:00.639 frankly before the coup, these sorts of coordinations would be 0:18:01.320 --> 0:18:05.960 uh like incomprehensible. I mean you'd see the Arakan Army, 0:18:06.200 --> 0:18:10.720 the Kachin Independence Army, the Ta'ang National Liberation Army, all 0:18:10.760 --> 0:18:19.720 of them have deep connections with mostly Bamar ethnic pds, 0:18:20.000 --> 0:18:23.760 some of whom work in coordination with the National Unity Government, 0:18:23.880 --> 0:18:27.879 some which are slightly more independent. But the this is 0:18:27.920 --> 0:18:34.680 an inter ethnic collaboration that's that's very novel and demonstrates 0:18:36.160 --> 0:18:40.359 a shift and inter ethnic and intercommunal dynamics in the 0:18:40.359 --> 0:18:44.840 country that are is very positive in a lot of ways. 0:18:45.480 --> 0:18:48.600 So Yeah, the t n l A. The has been 0:18:49.119 --> 0:18:53.040 providing weapons and training for PDFs in Mandalay, the k 0:18:53.320 --> 0:18:55.679 O the k I A has been providing weapons, in 0:18:55.720 --> 0:18:59.879 training and tactical and strategic support to PDFs in Sagan 0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:03.840 and the Arakan Army has been maybe more than any 0:19:03.880 --> 0:19:07.840 group providing tactical UH support and weapons and training to 0:19:08.160 --> 0:19:12.600 PDFs and b Goo Airwadi, Maguay and now more recently 0:19:12.640 --> 0:19:15.720 in Sigai in so really the the Burman heartland of 0:19:15.760 --> 0:19:21.000 the country. So yeah, all of these ethnic minority based 0:19:21.320 --> 0:19:29.199 armed organizations are now collaborating, sharing resources and knowledge with UH, 0:19:29.320 --> 0:19:34.720 with with Bamar ethnic PDFs. There's a so that I 0:19:34.720 --> 0:19:37.800 think the main question here is like, what does this 0:19:37.880 --> 0:19:40.199 mean for intercommunal relations? What does this mean for the 0:19:40.240 --> 0:19:44.120 future UH of you know, of the country? Is there? 0:19:44.200 --> 0:19:47.960 Does this indicate there's potential for greater national solidarity in 0:19:48.000 --> 0:19:52.040 the absence of the MEMR military, fracturing communities and so on. 0:19:53.280 --> 0:19:55.240 But yeah, it's it's a it's a radical shift in 0:19:55.280 --> 0:19:56.200 those relationships. 0:19:56.600 --> 0:19:59.200 But he also shared that as we've heard from every 0:19:59.240 --> 0:20:02.600 single PDF fighter we've talked to, their time alongside the 0:20:02.600 --> 0:20:05.119 eros Is comrades in arms has changed the way they 0:20:05.160 --> 0:20:07.080 see ethnicity in the future of their country. 0:20:07.400 --> 0:20:10.000 And I think this is also manifesting a lot of 0:20:10.520 --> 0:20:13.160 the research that my organization, the US Institute of Peace, 0:20:13.200 --> 0:20:16.159 has been doing at the among the general public. I mean, 0:20:16.200 --> 0:20:20.119 we've done three different studies over the past year to 0:20:20.200 --> 0:20:23.240 assess intercremual relations in the post couperiod and to kind 0:20:23.240 --> 0:20:27.840 of see how relations have shifted, because there's a really 0:20:27.880 --> 0:20:34.160 dominant narrative that MEMR is kind of irreconcilably fractured and 0:20:34.400 --> 0:20:38.399 that the communities are loyal to their ethnic identities not 0:20:38.440 --> 0:20:43.480 their national identities and so on, and frankly, all of 0:20:43.480 --> 0:20:48.480 our research has has pointed to a similar trend, which 0:20:48.560 --> 0:20:53.000 is one, inter ethnic relations are considerably better. There's a 0:20:54.720 --> 0:21:00.919 there's greater solidarity. There's actually one of the the experimental 0:21:00.920 --> 0:21:04.680 research studies that we did found that national identity, as 0:21:04.680 --> 0:21:08.920 in being from MEMMR was more was more important to 0:21:08.960 --> 0:21:14.080 respond ince than ethnic identity, which totally cuts against narratives 0:21:14.080 --> 0:21:18.920 about MEMMAR. And Yeah, I mean, I think there's been 0:21:19.160 --> 0:21:23.439 considerable gains and inter ethnic relations, and it's you know, 0:21:23.480 --> 0:21:27.200 it's hard to determine, you know, the causal linkages here, 0:21:27.320 --> 0:21:31.280 whether you know, the improved inter ethnic relations are spurring 0:21:31.280 --> 0:21:35.360 greater military collaboration and collaboration on humanitarian assistants and governance 0:21:35.400 --> 0:21:38.960 and so on. But it does feel like there's a 0:21:39.400 --> 0:21:43.840 major shift and social dynamics in addition to these kind 0:21:43.880 --> 0:21:46.600 of military shifts that are taking place. I mean, I 0:21:46.600 --> 0:21:49.840 think that the research we've done has found there to 0:21:49.920 --> 0:21:58.000 be sort of extremist national perspectives still remain, but that 0:21:58.160 --> 0:22:01.760 they're the likelihood of them escalating to violence is reduced, 0:22:01.800 --> 0:22:08.040 in large part because the public's vulnerability to UH incitement 0:22:08.600 --> 0:22:11.040 or to a highly devisive political speech. Most of what 0:22:11.320 --> 0:22:17.480 came from Melmar military run troll farms is is much 0:22:17.560 --> 0:22:20.160 I mean, there's much more resilience to those that that 0:22:20.200 --> 0:22:23.480 form of political violence. So, you know, I think there's 0:22:23.680 --> 0:22:25.879 still a lot of work obviously to do to build 0:22:26.200 --> 0:22:33.159 intercommunal cohesion and understanding, but that the likelihood you know, 0:22:33.240 --> 0:22:37.200 for example, in a post sac world that you will 0:22:37.240 --> 0:22:42.000 be you know, see mass intercommunal violence, it seems much 0:22:42.680 --> 0:22:45.280 lower than a lot of people are presuming that it 0:22:45.280 --> 0:22:50.160 would be that the that the actual horizontal relationships across 0:22:50.200 --> 0:22:54.560 communities are not are not as bad as many presume. Actually, 0:22:54.560 --> 0:22:57.520 one of the surveys that we did found that Memar's 0:22:57.560 --> 0:23:01.719 intercommunal relations are no worse than countries with much lower 0:23:01.800 --> 0:23:04.760 levels of violence, which is kind of an indication of 0:23:04.840 --> 0:23:10.200 the fact that it's really vertical dynamics like violent political speech, 0:23:10.560 --> 0:23:15.320 highly exclusionary governance structures that are driving intercommunal violence, and 0:23:15.400 --> 0:23:19.000 so that those on that dimension at least that the 0:23:19.000 --> 0:23:23.240 person to person intercommunal relation or relationships. I think there's 0:23:23.800 --> 0:23:28.480 a lot to be a lot of positive narratives there. 0:23:29.119 --> 0:23:32.320 Talking of positive narratives, here's some positive narratives about products 0:23:32.320 --> 0:23:46.800 and or services. Another aspect of the conflict that's played 0:23:46.840 --> 0:23:48.840 out in Operation ten twenty seven, it's the role of 0:23:48.920 --> 0:23:51.719 China and the massive crime empires that the junta has 0:23:51.760 --> 0:23:55.000 facilitated along the country's borders in recent years. I asked 0:23:55.000 --> 0:23:56.440 Billy to explain some of those. 0:23:56.960 --> 0:24:02.960 So this has become the major political dynamic between China 0:24:03.000 --> 0:24:06.360 and the SAC over the past year. Frankly, I mean, 0:24:06.359 --> 0:24:10.720 it's essentially what we've seen is the emergence of these 0:24:10.760 --> 0:24:16.560 massive scam operations that use foreign labor that's trafficked into 0:24:16.600 --> 0:24:22.520 MEMR into areas controlled primarily by MEMMR military commissioned border 0:24:22.560 --> 0:24:25.800 guard forces. So these are commissioned under the MEMR military, 0:24:25.840 --> 0:24:29.000 which is a very key point in most cases, and 0:24:29.880 --> 0:24:34.399 they are running scam operations at a global level that 0:24:34.480 --> 0:24:38.640 are scamming people using a scheme called pig butchering, which 0:24:38.720 --> 0:24:44.720 is long term relationship building. And then you're yeah, theft 0:24:44.760 --> 0:24:48.120 at a large scale. This is like, these are sizable 0:24:48.160 --> 0:24:51.560 losses from individuals. So last year, for example, to give 0:24:51.600 --> 0:24:55.439 you a sense of that scale, China lost twenty billion 0:24:55.520 --> 0:24:59.920 dollars to these scam operations. Twenty billion, Yeah, you know, 0:25:00.119 --> 0:25:04.480 of states lost two billion dollars on scam operations emerging 0:25:04.520 --> 0:25:07.399 from Menmar. I mean, the scale of this is wild. 0:25:07.480 --> 0:25:10.000 I mean there's more than there's more than one hundred 0:25:10.119 --> 0:25:14.800 thousand people being held in scam zones in Meanmar from 0:25:14.880 --> 0:25:18.680 forty six different countries. I mean, it's a it's this 0:25:18.720 --> 0:25:21.280 is a total global operation because I mean this emerged 0:25:21.320 --> 0:25:25.119 actually before COVID, I mean in sia Hanookville, Cambodia and 0:25:25.160 --> 0:25:28.440 other places where there's you know, rule of laws is dubious. 0:25:29.000 --> 0:25:33.280 They have the initiated kind of casino operations which are 0:25:33.320 --> 0:25:38.600 illegal in China and really targeting Chinese public. And during COVID, 0:25:38.680 --> 0:25:41.520 when China a lot of Chinese nationals were forced back 0:25:41.560 --> 0:25:47.280 to mainland China. These criminal enterprises were short on labor, 0:25:47.560 --> 0:25:50.280 and so they shifted their approach. I mean they shifted 0:25:50.320 --> 0:25:54.679 to trafficking people into their zones and then operating at 0:25:54.680 --> 0:25:59.439 a global scale finding labor from around the world, you know, 0:25:59.600 --> 0:26:02.640 using not not low skilled labor. I mean this is 0:26:02.760 --> 0:26:07.960 these are high skilled kind of middle class workers seeking 0:26:08.000 --> 0:26:11.520 employment in the tech industry or some other scheme that 0:26:11.680 --> 0:26:14.240 they you know, eventually they're you know, held at gunpoint 0:26:14.240 --> 0:26:18.840 and forced to scam their co nationals. So that's a 0:26:18.880 --> 0:26:21.960 little bit of background. So this is happening in Ko 0:26:22.080 --> 0:26:26.840 Kong along the Chinese border, also in the Wa territories 0:26:26.920 --> 0:26:30.480 and in the n d a A territories. The largest 0:26:30.480 --> 0:26:34.040 areas are actually on the Thai Burma border with the 0:26:34.160 --> 0:26:40.960 Kren Border Guard Force and affiliated criminal organizations. So essentially, 0:26:41.080 --> 0:26:45.960 over the past year, the Chinese have have noticed not 0:26:46.000 --> 0:26:49.960 only the financial losses but the potential for social instability 0:26:50.480 --> 0:26:55.879 because as youth unemployment has grown in China, you know, 0:26:55.960 --> 0:26:59.720 these young people are seeking new employment opportunities, crossing the 0:26:59.760 --> 0:27:03.560 border and memr for high paying tech jobs and then 0:27:03.600 --> 0:27:06.880 being held at gunpoints. So you have you know, mothers 0:27:06.920 --> 0:27:09.119 on social media saying I haven't seen my son in 0:27:09.160 --> 0:27:11.720 three weeks and you know he's being held in a 0:27:11.760 --> 0:27:15.640 scam operation. So you know this is this is dileitarious 0:27:15.640 --> 0:27:18.000 at two levels. You know, the financial scam losses and 0:27:18.119 --> 0:27:23.120 the trafficking, and it's all being run by border guard 0:27:23.160 --> 0:27:27.040 forces that are commissioned by the Melamar military. And yet 0:27:27.320 --> 0:27:30.800 you see countries around the world, including China, going to 0:27:30.840 --> 0:27:34.800 the Malamar military and saying, please shut this down. And 0:27:34.880 --> 0:27:37.240 of course the Malmur military has no intention to shut 0:27:37.280 --> 0:27:41.520 this down because these these scam operations are financing the 0:27:41.520 --> 0:27:46.200 border guard forces that are their key weapon against the resistance. 0:27:46.680 --> 0:27:49.239 So they need the border guard forces and so they 0:27:49.280 --> 0:27:53.399