1 00:00:01,760 --> 00:00:02,920 Speaker 1: Calls media. 2 00:00:03,640 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 2: Hello everyone, it's me James, and I am joining you 3 00:00:06,800 --> 00:00:11,200 Speaker 2: today for another and long series of the little recordings 4 00:00:11,240 --> 00:00:14,280 Speaker 2: where I ask you to give us your money. Once again, 5 00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:16,320 Speaker 2: I am asking you to support the mutual aid work 6 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:19,400 Speaker 2: being done at the border. I'm recording this in November, 7 00:00:19,960 --> 00:00:23,560 Speaker 2: and this week we have terrible weather forecasts that will 8 00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:27,400 Speaker 2: make conditions in her Cumba extremely dangerous for people who 9 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:30,440 Speaker 2: are detained out there by the Department of Homeland Security. 10 00:00:30,880 --> 00:00:33,640 Speaker 2: It will mean that it's no exaggeration to say that 11 00:00:33,640 --> 00:00:36,240 Speaker 2: people's lives will be at risk, and that the important 12 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:39,320 Speaker 2: mutual aid work that's already been done will only become 13 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,040 Speaker 2: more important as we get rain, we get snow, and 14 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:44,560 Speaker 2: we get cold temperatures, and people continue to be detained 15 00:00:44,600 --> 00:00:48,920 Speaker 2: without shelter, food, water, or adequate clothing. If you would 16 00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:51,320 Speaker 2: like to support those efforts, you can find the way 17 00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:56,480 Speaker 2: to do so at link tree slash Border Kindness. There's 18 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:59,240 Speaker 2: a dot before the ee, so it's l I n 19 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:03,600 Speaker 2: k t E R dot e E slash Border Kindness. 20 00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 2: I'll suppose a link on my Twitter if you'd like 21 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:48,000 Speaker 2: to find it there. Thank you. In the week since 22 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:50,760 Speaker 2: the end of October, the conflict landscape in Miamma has 23 00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:54,640 Speaker 2: significantly changed. The Hunter and its alignment issues have taken 24 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:58,120 Speaker 2: unprecedented losses in the PDF, as well as several ethnic 25 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 2: revolutionary organizations have swept across the country, seizing bases, weapons, tanks, 26 00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:06,800 Speaker 2: and even towns and cities. As the offensive was ongoing, 27 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:10,560 Speaker 2: I spoke to Sire montine A, leader in the madelid PDF, 28 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:13,600 Speaker 2: and Billy Ford of the United States Institute for Peace. 29 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:17,239 Speaker 2: What follows is my conversation with Billy and some insights 30 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 2: on a situation on the ground with the madel Ai PDF. 31 00:02:20,280 --> 00:02:23,560 Speaker 2: You'll hear more from Sire Montiney in another episode that 32 00:02:23,639 --> 00:02:25,680 Speaker 2: we're working on, but I wanted you to hear his 33 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:29,239 Speaker 2: personal on the ground perspective now as well. First, I 34 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:32,800 Speaker 2: let nine nine, the translator from mandele A PDF, introduce 35 00:02:32,840 --> 00:02:33,240 Speaker 2: our guest. 36 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:35,440 Speaker 3: Oh yeah, Layes. 37 00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:42,200 Speaker 1: He is the leader of the Commanding and Cohesion team, 38 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:44,000 Speaker 1: and you can also. 39 00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:46,839 Speaker 3: Say that he the leader of our organization. 40 00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 2: To start with, I asked Billy to explain for you 41 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:52,119 Speaker 2: the developments in the conflict in the last few weeks. 42 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 4: I mean, it's really been just the past, what is 43 00:02:55,080 --> 00:02:59,280 Speaker 4: it since the twenty seven so thirteen days kind of 44 00:02:59,480 --> 00:03:03,800 Speaker 4: a level whole change in the conflict trajectory. Whereas I'd say, 45 00:03:03,880 --> 00:03:06,520 Speaker 4: I mean you got coup February first, twenty twenty one, 46 00:03:06,760 --> 00:03:11,239 Speaker 4: major military operate resistance operations began September seventh, twenty twenty one, 47 00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:16,280 Speaker 4: and frankly since then it's been more or less incremental change. 48 00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:19,480 Speaker 4: You can, I wouldn't characterize it as a stalemate as 49 00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:24,680 Speaker 4: many have, but there's there's essentially been, you know, small 50 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:28,520 Speaker 4: pockets of progress where the resistance is capturing territory, but 51 00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:34,480 Speaker 4: all almost exclusively rural areas of the country. And then 52 00:03:34,720 --> 00:03:41,600 Speaker 4: things changed radically on October twenty seventh, when whereas before 53 00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:46,120 Speaker 4: the twenty seventh you had a range of armed stakeholders 54 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:50,320 Speaker 4: involved in the conflicts, some under the deposed National Unity government, 55 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:53,560 Speaker 4: as well as what's called the K three C which 56 00:03:53,600 --> 00:03:57,120 Speaker 4: is four of the biggest ethnic army organizations. But a 57 00:03:57,120 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 4: lot a lot of the reason why we hadn't seen 58 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:04,240 Speaker 4: the level change in the military balance of power was 59 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:06,400 Speaker 4: because of the absence of some of the biggest and 60 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:10,000 Speaker 4: most powerful armed organizations that had more or less state 61 00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:13,760 Speaker 4: on the sidelines. I mean they were arming and training 62 00:04:13,920 --> 00:04:17,920 Speaker 4: resistance forces that were engaged in active combat, but they 63 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:21,440 Speaker 4: hadn't themselves in a meaningful way. But on the twenty 64 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 4: seventh that totally changed. This alliance called the Brotherhood Alliance 65 00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 4: that involves three of the biggest armed organizations initiated coordinated 66 00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:35,360 Speaker 4: attacks in Northern Shan State on the border with China 67 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:40,040 Speaker 4: and have since the twenty seventh. We're talking to you 68 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:44,280 Speaker 4: on the tenth here of November, one hundred and fifty 69 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 4: posts have been taken. Seven towns are now under full 70 00:04:49,320 --> 00:04:54,960 Speaker 4: resistance control, seven others by my counter under partial resistance control. 71 00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:59,120 Speaker 4: And the operation in Northern Shan State on the border 72 00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:05,320 Speaker 4: has effectively spurred resistance operations in other parts of the country, 73 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:10,799 Speaker 4: and so now you essentially have operations in all corners 74 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:15,680 Speaker 4: of the country. I mean, you've seen PDFs taking towns 75 00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:19,880 Speaker 4: in sagaiin along the Indian border. You've seen the can 76 00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:24,479 Speaker 4: you taking important towns on the logistics corridor on the 77 00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 4: Thai border. Karenni groups have moved into Meyse on the 78 00:05:28,960 --> 00:05:32,719 Speaker 4: Thaie border with Kareni State. The Chin National Front has 79 00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:36,880 Speaker 4: initiated attacks in Balatwa and Southern Chin State near the 80 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:42,720 Speaker 4: Bangladesh India border. Yeah, so it's really just the trajectory 81 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:46,400 Speaker 4: of conflict has gone from an incremental trajectory where it's 82 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:48,479 Speaker 4: like this is a slow burn that could last a 83 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:52,560 Speaker 4: long time to a we need to start thinking about 84 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:57,320 Speaker 4: potentially day after. I mean, nothing is a given, and 85 00:05:57,400 --> 00:06:01,040 Speaker 4: the Minama military has been resils in the past, but 86 00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:03,320 Speaker 4: it does feel like this is a historic moment in 87 00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 4: a lot of ways, and the military is weakened in 88 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:10,040 Speaker 4: a way that we've really never seen in the history 89 00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:10,719 Speaker 4: of the country. 90 00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:14,279 Speaker 2: I asked Montiney to explain a little about how he 91 00:06:14,360 --> 00:06:17,719 Speaker 2: got to a point where his force, who hadn't fought 92 00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:20,720 Speaker 2: it all in twenty twenty one, we're able to fight 93 00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:23,800 Speaker 2: alongside the eros and did a serious defeat to the junta. 94 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:31,320 Speaker 1: So in twenty one March he decided to go for 95 00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:34,600 Speaker 1: the unrevolutions and then he started reading the books about 96 00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:39,320 Speaker 1: the military and tactics and then warfare things. And then 97 00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:42,920 Speaker 1: he said that he is still learning and reading from 98 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:49,279 Speaker 1: the books about the military tactics till now. And one 99 00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:54,240 Speaker 1: more thing is we are having some problems about the 100 00:06:54,440 --> 00:06:59,440 Speaker 1: other rebirth defense for dif that they don't have the 101 00:06:59,680 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 1: well farming and then they don't follow the code of 102 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:10,080 Speaker 1: context or something like that. So we organize well that 103 00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:16,520 Speaker 1: we won't become a blood dirsty organization, but just to 104 00:07:16,680 --> 00:07:22,040 Speaker 1: fight for the military pool. And one more thing is 105 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:26,800 Speaker 1: we are following the two CEOC, which is a code 106 00:07:26,840 --> 00:07:33,440 Speaker 1: of conduct and then chain of commands before we bomb 107 00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:33,880 Speaker 1: up us. 108 00:07:34,000 --> 00:07:37,360 Speaker 3: The these military organizations, a. 109 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:39,800 Speaker 2: Number of the Eros or Acnams you won't have heard before, 110 00:07:39,880 --> 00:07:42,160 Speaker 2: and that's because they haven't been part of the conflict before. 111 00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:44,720 Speaker 2: So I asked Billy to explain who the Eros in 112 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:47,640 Speaker 2: the north were and how and why are they identityfied now? 113 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:53,440 Speaker 4: Sure? So, the ark On Army is a kind ethnic 114 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:59,320 Speaker 4: based armed organization. They're based on the China border, but 115 00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:01,880 Speaker 4: for the who know memr geography or kind state is 116 00:08:01,880 --> 00:08:04,520 Speaker 4: actually on the complete other side of the country. But this, 117 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:08,360 Speaker 4: like many were like many newer armed organizations, they were 118 00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 4: essentially incubated by some of the longer term armed organizations. 119 00:08:13,920 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 4: In this case, the Kachin Independence Army helped for the 120 00:08:18,320 --> 00:08:22,520 Speaker 4: emergence of the Arakan Army, which has really grown in 121 00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:27,320 Speaker 4: the past ten years into one of the strongest armed 122 00:08:27,320 --> 00:08:31,480 Speaker 4: stakeholders in the country. Before the coup under the On 123 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:37,480 Speaker 4: Sansuchil National League for Democracy government they were in intense 124 00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:43,040 Speaker 4: fighting with the MR military and on Sansuchi strongly supported 125 00:08:43,040 --> 00:08:46,160 Speaker 4: the m R military's operations against the AA, and that 126 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:47,880 Speaker 4: kind of built some bad blood, as you might be 127 00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:51,840 Speaker 4: might imagine, between the AA and the National League for Democracy, 128 00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:54,800 Speaker 4: and that bad blood has made it difficult to build 129 00:08:54,880 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 4: alliance across ethnic lines and with those resistance organizationations that 130 00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:03,680 Speaker 4: involve NLD folks. But the key point here is that 131 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:06,199 Speaker 4: the AA is operating in two places, were Kind State 132 00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:09,800 Speaker 4: and in Northern Shan State on the and Kachin State 133 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:13,640 Speaker 4: also actually it's a gay now but and they're an 134 00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:18,400 Speaker 4: extremely powerful armed organization, highly disciplined, highly effective, well armed. 135 00:09:19,640 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 4: The second group is the Ta'ang National Liberation Army. This 136 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:27,280 Speaker 4: is a an ethnic based army in northern Shan State 137 00:09:27,520 --> 00:09:36,200 Speaker 4: that also is a relatively a newer armed organization. They 138 00:09:36,280 --> 00:09:41,280 Speaker 4: it's it's a pretty complex military environment in Northern Shan 139 00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:44,600 Speaker 4: State because the t n l A are often in 140 00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:49,320 Speaker 4: tension with other Shan ethnic groups that are in Shan State, 141 00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:52,200 Speaker 4: including the r c s S or the Shan State 142 00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:56,080 Speaker 4: Army South, which is competing for control in other parts 143 00:09:56,440 --> 00:09:59,840 Speaker 4: of Shan State. We've also seen some tension between the 144 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:02,120 Speaker 4: t n l A and the s s p P, 145 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:07,400 Speaker 4: which is another Northern Shan army that's closely aligned with 146 00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 4: the wah and Chinese. So that's a that's a pretty 147 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:15,640 Speaker 4: complex array of relationships there. But the t NLA is 148 00:10:15,679 --> 00:10:20,319 Speaker 4: also an increasingly powerful armed organization one that administer Administer's 149 00:10:20,440 --> 00:10:24,440 Speaker 4: territory and has also been locked in conflict with the 150 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 4: MEMORY military for some time. The last group is the 151 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 4: m n d a A the MEMR National Democratic Alliance 152 00:10:31,840 --> 00:10:37,320 Speaker 4: Army UH. This is a Ko Kong ethnic based armed 153 00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:43,960 Speaker 4: organization that for a long time controlled territory along the 154 00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:48,840 Speaker 4: China border. In two thousand and nine, men Online who 155 00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:50,840 Speaker 4: is now the commander in chief and the head of 156 00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:58,400 Speaker 4: the SAC. He essentially was leading commands in north in 157 00:10:58,520 --> 00:11:01,640 Speaker 4: the northeast and led operations to push the m n 158 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 4: d a A out of that territory and replace it 159 00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:10,199 Speaker 4: with a border guard force of another ethnic Ko Kong 160 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:15,480 Speaker 4: ethnic army. And we can get back to that. But 161 00:11:15,520 --> 00:11:19,080 Speaker 4: that ethnic army became or is a criminal enterprise that's 162 00:11:19,120 --> 00:11:24,199 Speaker 4: now operating massive scam and human trafficking operations with the 163 00:11:24,280 --> 00:11:28,319 Speaker 4: support of the MR military. They're commissioned under the MEMR military, 164 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:31,800 Speaker 4: but I think a key point here is that there's 165 00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:34,360 Speaker 4: it's very personal with the m n d a A 166 00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:38,920 Speaker 4: and this Border Guard Force and and Men Online, and 167 00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:40,880 Speaker 4: so this is really the m n d a A 168 00:11:41,080 --> 00:11:43,320 Speaker 4: is an organization that has been pushing for a very 169 00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:47,800 Speaker 4: long time to retake this territory and particularly this city 170 00:11:47,800 --> 00:11:52,760 Speaker 4: of Lauchai. And so that that that three constitutes the 171 00:11:52,800 --> 00:11:57,720 Speaker 4: Brotherhood Alliance. There's other stakeholders in this region, including the 172 00:11:57,840 --> 00:12:01,960 Speaker 4: United Waw State Army, which is the largest armed organization 173 00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:08,720 Speaker 4: in Myanmar, or non state armed organization as well, which 174 00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:12,440 Speaker 4: is very closely tied with the Chinese. I mean they 175 00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:18,079 Speaker 4: use Chinese currency, they speak Chinese, they fully administer their 176 00:12:18,440 --> 00:12:23,840 Speaker 4: territory and autonomously. And then the other organizations that are 177 00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:26,079 Speaker 4: relevant here is the National Democratic Alliance Army and d 178 00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:28,600 Speaker 4: a A, which is essentially you can think of it 179 00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:32,079 Speaker 4: as a closely tied with the law and the Chinese. 180 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:35,400 Speaker 4: And then the Kachin Independence Army, which is a Kachin 181 00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:42,080 Speaker 4: ethnic based armed organization very much founded as a social 182 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:44,360 Speaker 4: services I mean it's it's kind of got a different 183 00:12:44,400 --> 00:12:46,720 Speaker 4: identity from some of these other groups. It's very much 184 00:12:46,720 --> 00:12:52,920 Speaker 4: like a revolutionary organization with political intentions. Uh, there's kind 185 00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:58,240 Speaker 4: of Christian beliefs that are embedded within the organization. So yeah, 186 00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:00,800 Speaker 4: I want to say it's a highly complex actors with 187 00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:04,880 Speaker 4: different intentions and motivations, but in this particular case, they 188 00:13:04,880 --> 00:13:08,880 Speaker 4: came together to at least the Brotherhood Alliance came together 189 00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:10,880 Speaker 4: to launch this this coordinated attack. 190 00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:15,000 Speaker 2: The T'ang National Liberation Army the group who received many 191 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:17,360 Speaker 2: of the young people of Mandalay who went on to 192 00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:21,200 Speaker 2: form the Mandelaid PDF. Those young people started out as 193 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:23,719 Speaker 2: a strikeforce within Mandlay but there are only weapons on 194 00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:26,199 Speaker 2: Molotov cocktails, and every action they took was the rest 195 00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:29,360 Speaker 2: of their whole families if they were caught by march. 196 00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:33,560 Speaker 2: A few weeks into the revolution, Montenay and others took 197 00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:36,480 Speaker 2: to the mountains with the Tang National Liberation Army to 198 00:13:36,559 --> 00:13:40,079 Speaker 2: learn to fight. Before the revolution, he said he had 199 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:43,200 Speaker 2: no experience and he didn't even play fighting video games. 200 00:13:43,800 --> 00:13:45,640 Speaker 2: I asked him how it felt to be joining a 201 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:48,120 Speaker 2: group he'd been raised to hate and how he got there. 202 00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:54,439 Speaker 1: Before we formed Manleay perif, we started as an MSDA, 203 00:13:54,720 --> 00:14:03,320 Speaker 1: which is a Manlay four, the first training for our organizations, 204 00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:09,040 Speaker 1: and at the time we only have a sam handmade 205 00:14:09,400 --> 00:14:15,280 Speaker 1: weapons like Molotov, but we really don't use like handmade guns. 206 00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:20,720 Speaker 1: But the after the support of TNLLY, we we got 207 00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:25,920 Speaker 1: the automatic rifles with the help of our alliance and UH. 208 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:31,320 Speaker 1: At first when we act as a MSTF manally special 209 00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:37,080 Speaker 1: Task Force, we restrict the rooms for not attaching to 210 00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:41,640 Speaker 1: the schools or hospitals or the civilians. And then after 211 00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:46,520 Speaker 1: that we start using the handmade weapons like just like Molotov. 212 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:50,760 Speaker 1: We didn't use any handguns at the time, but after 213 00:14:50,960 --> 00:14:55,160 Speaker 1: that we trained UH and we contact with the atn 214 00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:59,280 Speaker 1: l E. We have we now have the automatic rifles 215 00:14:59,360 --> 00:15:02,760 Speaker 1: and then others UH missiles or something like that. 216 00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:03,560 Speaker 3: Now. 217 00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:08,760 Speaker 1: So when he decided to contact with the t n 218 00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:16,000 Speaker 1: l E the Nasal, what he expected were nothing else 219 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:20,920 Speaker 1: but some few problems that about the racists because of 220 00:15:21,080 --> 00:15:25,760 Speaker 1: most of the ethnic groups, they most of them they 221 00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:31,000 Speaker 1: hate Bumbis people and they even called the Bambi's army. 222 00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:35,480 Speaker 1: So he was explaining that we will be having a 223 00:15:35,560 --> 00:15:40,400 Speaker 1: racist problems. But when he actually reached to the end 224 00:15:40,440 --> 00:15:43,920 Speaker 1: region UH, he found out that there is no hatred 225 00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:48,160 Speaker 1: to the Bombish people and then there was no problem 226 00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:50,000 Speaker 1: about the racist problems. 227 00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:53,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, he also thought that it's because of the. 228 00:15:53,040 --> 00:15:55,760 Speaker 1: Communit comunication between the Bambi's. 229 00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:58,000 Speaker 3: People and the Aloan. 230 00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:04,000 Speaker 1: Racist Uhlan people. They provide tea, leaves and the other 231 00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:10,880 Speaker 1: things to eat bambished people and then they make some 232 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 1: tradings and then some they do some business with barbised people, 233 00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:20,960 Speaker 1: so that there was no problem about that. But the 234 00:16:21,000 --> 00:16:25,360 Speaker 1: only other thing was about the weather, because of the 235 00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:31,040 Speaker 1: rough weather in the mountains, it's a very different weather 236 00:16:31,120 --> 00:16:35,200 Speaker 1: from the like Manulee region. It's very cool for the 237 00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:42,080 Speaker 1: people from the Manley region, the Manleys, Yeah, and in 238 00:16:42,240 --> 00:16:46,320 Speaker 1: mountains it's very cold in here. So we still having 239 00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:51,560 Speaker 1: problems about the weather problems, but now we are getting 240 00:16:51,640 --> 00:16:52,000 Speaker 1: used to it. 241 00:16:52,760 --> 00:16:56,280 Speaker 3: And he said that he is also surprised that t. 242 00:16:56,480 --> 00:17:01,120 Speaker 1: N l A, the AD National Division Army is wealth 243 00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:05,439 Speaker 1: all military and then they also following the code of 244 00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:10,240 Speaker 1: conduct and then the following the democracy way and then 245 00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:13,399 Speaker 1: most of the leaders from the t and LA of 246 00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:17,440 Speaker 1: the liberal ideas and then they also one we work 247 00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:20,679 Speaker 1: on to the young leaders. 248 00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:24,520 Speaker 3: From the revolution for us. So see, he was surprised 249 00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:25,000 Speaker 3: about that. 250 00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:28,120 Speaker 2: Billy told me that this same dynamic HAULD occurred all 251 00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:30,320 Speaker 2: over the country. And this is probably a good time 252 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:32,760 Speaker 2: to remind listeners that we've covered the formation of the 253 00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:36,120 Speaker 2: PDFs and our two previous series about Memmar and if 254 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:37,520 Speaker 2: you haven't had the time to listen to those, I 255 00:17:37,560 --> 00:17:39,359 Speaker 2: really hope you do because it'll make this one a 256 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:41,920 Speaker 2: lot more interesting and this one probably won't make much 257 00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:42,680 Speaker 2: sense without it. 258 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:45,480 Speaker 4: Yeah, and I think this is really a key dynamic, 259 00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:48,200 Speaker 4: and we can come back to the conversation maybe about 260 00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:54,440 Speaker 4: day after the political dimensions of the conflict, but there's 261 00:17:55,840 --> 00:18:00,639 Speaker 4: frankly before the coup, these sorts of coordinations would be 262 00:18:01,320 --> 00:18:05,960 Speaker 4: uh like incomprehensible. I mean you'd see the Arakan Army, 263 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:10,720 Speaker 4: the Kachin Independence Army, the Ta'ang National Liberation Army, all 264 00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:19,720 Speaker 4: of them have deep connections with mostly Bamar ethnic pds, 265 00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:23,760 Speaker 4: some of whom work in coordination with the National Unity Government, 266 00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:27,879 Speaker 4: some which are slightly more independent. But the this is 267 00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:34,680 Speaker 4: an inter ethnic collaboration that's that's very novel and demonstrates 268 00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:40,359 Speaker 4: a shift and inter ethnic and intercommunal dynamics in the 269 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:44,840 Speaker 4: country that are is very positive in a lot of ways. 270 00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:48,600 Speaker 4: So Yeah, the t n l A. The has been 271 00:18:49,119 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 4: providing weapons and training for PDFs in Mandalay, the k 272 00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:55,679 Speaker 4: O the k I A has been providing weapons, in 273 00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:59,879 Speaker 4: training and tactical and strategic support to PDFs in Sagan 274 00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:03,840 Speaker 4: and the Arakan Army has been maybe more than any 275 00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:07,840 Speaker 4: group providing tactical UH support and weapons and training to 276 00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:12,600 Speaker 4: PDFs and b Goo Airwadi, Maguay and now more recently 277 00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:15,720 Speaker 4: in Sigai in so really the the Burman heartland of 278 00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 4: the country. So yeah, all of these ethnic minority based 279 00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:29,199 Speaker 4: armed organizations are now collaborating, sharing resources and knowledge with UH, 280 00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:34,720 Speaker 4: with with Bamar ethnic PDFs. There's a so that I 281 00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:37,800 Speaker 4: think the main question here is like, what does this 282 00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:40,199 Speaker 4: mean for intercommunal relations? What does this mean for the 283 00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:44,120 Speaker 4: future UH of you know, of the country? Is there? 284 00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:47,960 Speaker 4: Does this indicate there's potential for greater national solidarity in 285 00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:52,040 Speaker 4: the absence of the MEMR military, fracturing communities and so on. 286 00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:55,240 Speaker 4: But yeah, it's it's a it's a radical shift in 287 00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:56,200 Speaker 4: those relationships. 288 00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:59,200 Speaker 2: But he also shared that as we've heard from every 289 00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:02,600 Speaker 2: single PDF fighter we've talked to, their time alongside the 290 00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:05,119 Speaker 2: eros Is comrades in arms has changed the way they 291 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:07,080 Speaker 2: see ethnicity in the future of their country. 292 00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:10,000 Speaker 4: And I think this is also manifesting a lot of 293 00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:13,160 Speaker 4: the research that my organization, the US Institute of Peace, 294 00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:16,159 Speaker 4: has been doing at the among the general public. I mean, 295 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:20,119 Speaker 4: we've done three different studies over the past year to 296 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:23,240 Speaker 4: assess intercremual relations in the post couperiod and to kind 297 00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:27,840 Speaker 4: of see how relations have shifted, because there's a really 298 00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:34,160 Speaker 4: dominant narrative that MEMR is kind of irreconcilably fractured and 299 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:38,399 Speaker 4: that the communities are loyal to their ethnic identities not 300 00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:43,480 Speaker 4: their national identities and so on, and frankly, all of 301 00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:48,480 Speaker 4: our research has has pointed to a similar trend, which 302 00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:53,000 Speaker 4: is one, inter ethnic relations are considerably better. There's a 303 00:20:54,720 --> 00:21:00,919 Speaker 4: there's greater solidarity. There's actually one of the the experimental 304 00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:04,680 Speaker 4: research studies that we did found that national identity, as 305 00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:08,920 Speaker 4: in being from MEMMR was more was more important to 306 00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:14,080 Speaker 4: respond ince than ethnic identity, which totally cuts against narratives 307 00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:18,920 Speaker 4: about MEMMAR. And Yeah, I mean, I think there's been 308 00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:23,439 Speaker 4: considerable gains and inter ethnic relations, and it's you know, 309 00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:27,200 Speaker 4: it's hard to determine, you know, the causal linkages here, 310 00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:31,280 Speaker 4: whether you know, the improved inter ethnic relations are spurring 311 00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:35,360 Speaker 4: greater military collaboration and collaboration on humanitarian assistants and governance 312 00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:38,960 Speaker 4: and so on. But it does feel like there's a 313 00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:43,840 Speaker 4: major shift and social dynamics in addition to these kind 314 00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:46,600 Speaker 4: of military shifts that are taking place. I mean, I 315 00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:49,840 Speaker 4: think that the research we've done has found there to 316 00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:58,000 Speaker 4: be sort of extremist national perspectives still remain, but that 317 00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:01,760 Speaker 4: they're the likelihood of them escalating to violence is reduced, 318 00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:08,040 Speaker 4: in large part because the public's vulnerability to UH incitement 319 00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:11,040 Speaker 4: or to a highly devisive political speech. Most of what 320 00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:17,480 Speaker 4: came from Melmar military run troll farms is is much 321 00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:20,160 Speaker 4: I mean, there's much more resilience to those that that 322 00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:23,480 Speaker 4: form of political violence. So, you know, I think there's 323 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:25,879 Speaker 4: still a lot of work obviously to do to build 324 00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:33,159 Speaker 4: intercommunal cohesion and understanding, but that the likelihood you know, 325 00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:37,200 Speaker 4: for example, in a post sac world that you will 326 00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:42,000 Speaker 4: be you know, see mass intercommunal violence, it seems much 327 00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:45,280 Speaker 4: lower than a lot of people are presuming that it 328 00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:50,160 Speaker 4: would be that the that the actual horizontal relationships across 329 00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:54,560 Speaker 4: communities are not are not as bad as many presume. Actually, 330 00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:57,520 Speaker 4: one of the surveys that we did found that Memar's 331 00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:01,719 Speaker 4: intercommunal relations are no worse than countries with much lower 332 00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:04,760 Speaker 4: levels of violence, which is kind of an indication of 333 00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:10,200 Speaker 4: the fact that it's really vertical dynamics like violent political speech, 334 00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:15,320 Speaker 4: highly exclusionary governance structures that are driving intercommunal violence, and 335 00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 4: so that those on that dimension at least that the 336 00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:23,240 Speaker 4: person to person intercommunal relation or relationships. I think there's 337 00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:28,480 Speaker 4: a lot to be a lot of positive narratives there. 338 00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:32,320 Speaker 2: Talking of positive narratives, here's some positive narratives about products 339 00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:46,800 Speaker 2: and or services. Another aspect of the conflict that's played 340 00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:48,840 Speaker 2: out in Operation ten twenty seven, it's the role of 341 00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,719 Speaker 2: China and the massive crime empires that the junta has 342 00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:55,000 Speaker 2: facilitated along the country's borders in recent years. I asked 343 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:56,440 Speaker 2: Billy to explain some of those. 344 00:23:56,960 --> 00:24:02,960 Speaker 4: So this has become the major political dynamic between China 345 00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:06,360 Speaker 4: and the SAC over the past year. Frankly, I mean, 346 00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:10,720 Speaker 4: it's essentially what we've seen is the emergence of these 347 00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:16,560 Speaker 4: massive scam operations that use foreign labor that's trafficked into 348 00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:22,520 Speaker 4: MEMR into areas controlled primarily by MEMMR military commissioned border 349 00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:25,800 Speaker 4: guard forces. So these are commissioned under the MEMR military, 350 00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:29,000 Speaker 4: which is a very key point in most cases, and 351 00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:34,399 Speaker 4: they are running scam operations at a global level that 352 00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:38,640 Speaker 4: are scamming people using a scheme called pig butchering, which 353 00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:44,720 Speaker 4: is long term relationship building. And then you're yeah, theft 354 00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:48,120 Speaker 4: at a large scale. This is like, these are sizable 355 00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:51,560 Speaker 4: losses from individuals. So last year, for example, to give 356 00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:55,439 Speaker 4: you a sense of that scale, China lost twenty billion 357 00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:59,920 Speaker 4: dollars to these scam operations. Twenty billion, Yeah, you know, 358 00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:04,480 Speaker 4: of states lost two billion dollars on scam operations emerging 359 00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:07,399 Speaker 4: from Menmar. I mean, the scale of this is wild. 360 00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:10,000 Speaker 4: I mean there's more than there's more than one hundred 361 00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:14,800 Speaker 4: thousand people being held in scam zones in Meanmar from 362 00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:18,680 Speaker 4: forty six different countries. I mean, it's a it's this 363 00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:21,280 Speaker 4: is a total global operation because I mean this emerged 364 00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:25,119 Speaker 4: actually before COVID, I mean in sia Hanookville, Cambodia and 365 00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:28,440 Speaker 4: other places where there's you know, rule of laws is dubious. 366 00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:33,280 Speaker 4: They have the initiated kind of casino operations which are 367 00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:38,600 Speaker 4: illegal in China and really targeting Chinese public. And during COVID, 368 00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:41,520 Speaker 4: when China a lot of Chinese nationals were forced back 369 00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:47,280 Speaker 4: to mainland China. These criminal enterprises were short on labor, 370 00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:50,280 Speaker 4: and so they shifted their approach. I mean they shifted 371 00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:54,679 Speaker 4: to trafficking people into their zones and then operating at 372 00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:59,439 Speaker 4: a global scale finding labor from around the world, you know, 373 00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:02,640 Speaker 4: using not not low skilled labor. I mean this is 374 00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:07,960 Speaker 4: these are high skilled kind of middle class workers seeking 375 00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:11,520 Speaker 4: employment in the tech industry or some other scheme that 376 00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:14,240 Speaker 4: they you know, eventually they're you know, held at gunpoint 377 00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:18,840 Speaker 4: and forced to scam their co nationals. So that's a 378 00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:21,960 Speaker 4: little bit of background. So this is happening in Ko 379 00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:26,840 Speaker 4: Kong along the Chinese border, also in the Wa territories 380 00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:30,480 Speaker 4: and in the n d a A territories. The largest 381 00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:34,040 Speaker 4: areas are actually on the Thai Burma border with the 382 00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:40,960 Speaker 4: Kren Border Guard Force and affiliated criminal organizations. So essentially, 383 00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:45,960 Speaker 4: over the past year, the Chinese have have noticed not 384 00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:49,960 Speaker 4: only the financial losses but the potential for social instability 385 00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:55,879 Speaker 4: because as youth unemployment has grown in China, you know, 386 00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:59,720 Speaker 4: these young people are seeking new employment opportunities, crossing the 387 00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:03,560 Speaker 4: border and memr for high paying tech jobs and then 388 00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:06,880 Speaker 4: being held at gunpoints. So you have you know, mothers 389 00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:09,119 Speaker 4: on social media saying I haven't seen my son in 390 00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:11,720 Speaker 4: three weeks and you know he's being held in a 391 00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:15,640 Speaker 4: scam operation. So you know this is this is dileitarious 392 00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:18,000 Speaker 4: at two levels. You know, the financial scam losses and 393 00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:23,120 Speaker 4: the trafficking, and it's all being run by border guard 394 00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:27,040 Speaker 4: forces that are commissioned by the Melamar military. And yet 395 00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:30,800 Speaker 4: you see countries around the world, including China, going to 396 00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:34,800 Speaker 4: the Malamar military and saying, please shut this down. And 397 00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:37,240 Speaker 4: of course the Malmur military has no intention to shut 398 00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:41,520 Speaker 4: this down because these these scam operations are financing the 399 00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:46,200 Speaker 4: border guard forces that are their key weapon against the resistance. 400 00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:49,239 Speaker 4: So they need the border guard forces and so they 401 00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:53,399 Speaker 4: will never shut down the scam operations. And so what 402 00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:57,200 Speaker 4: what ensued was essentially earlier this year, I mean, the 403 00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:00,160 Speaker 4: Chinese came to the Malmour military and said, we will 404 00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:02,600 Speaker 4: support you at every level. We will prop you up, 405 00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:05,080 Speaker 4: provide you weapons, to provide you assistance if you can 406 00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:08,840 Speaker 4: demonstrate the capacity to govern, the capacity to provide stability 407 00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:13,359 Speaker 4: on our border, the capacity to provide to allow us 408 00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:18,560 Speaker 4: to pursue our economic interests. And the SAC has completely 409 00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:23,879 Speaker 4: failed this test. Scam operations have exploded China's economic interests. 410 00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:29,280 Speaker 4: The Chupu, especially economic zone remains in a impact assessment phase. 411 00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:32,080 Speaker 4: The lepid on copper mind is non functional, the Mitzo 412 00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:35,200 Speaker 4: dam is non functional. They're just not getting out of 413 00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:39,360 Speaker 4: the SAC what they wanted, and so there was a 414 00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:46,760 Speaker 4: meaningful shift recently, it appears, and I think by all 415 00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:51,800 Speaker 4: indicators that we can see the Chinese Greenlit Operation ten 416 00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:55,520 Speaker 4: twenty seven that they at least did not stand in 417 00:28:55,560 --> 00:29:02,040 Speaker 4: their way, and you'll see from the then Daa, I 418 00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:04,600 Speaker 4: mean they really were the leaders of the operation that 419 00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:08,200 Speaker 4: in the statements that they issued about the operation itself 420 00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:12,600 Speaker 4: and when they articulated their objectives, the first objective was 421 00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:15,360 Speaker 4: to shut down scam operations. I mean you can see 422 00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:20,280 Speaker 4: that this is they're speaking to a Chinese public and 423 00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:25,000 Speaker 4: the government indicating that we're a responsible, good faith actor 424 00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:29,680 Speaker 4: that will shut down these enterprises that are trafficking your 425 00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:33,520 Speaker 4: citizens and scamming the public out of billions of dollars. 426 00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:39,240 Speaker 4: So this has become a really dominant dynamic in the 427 00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:45,560 Speaker 4: relationship between the Chinese and the SAC, and it's it 428 00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:50,080 Speaker 4: leads to a really weakened position for the SAC if 429 00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:52,440 Speaker 4: they're not being propped up in the way that they 430 00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:55,040 Speaker 4: have been for so long by by the Chinese. So 431 00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:59,520 Speaker 4: we'll have to see how this kind of unfolds, but 432 00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:02,000 Speaker 4: it's not looking good for the military. 433 00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:05,360 Speaker 2: When we do see how this unfolds, it'll be people 434 00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:07,600 Speaker 2: like the mandl a PDF who we see leading the 435 00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:11,800 Speaker 2: charge for a new and democratic MIANDMA. We don't exactly 436 00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:15,120 Speaker 2: know what that means, but I asked them if the 437 00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:17,440 Speaker 2: weapons see is in operation ten twenty seven, we'll allow 438 00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:19,600 Speaker 2: them to arm more fighters and get there faster. 439 00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:24,720 Speaker 1: We are also now recruiting a new recruits, but we 440 00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:30,840 Speaker 1: will we will have to recruit until the genter is gone. 441 00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:36,000 Speaker 1: And we also need more soldiers to form up the 442 00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:41,800 Speaker 1: better army than the gener after we want, even after 443 00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:44,880 Speaker 1: we want, we are going to need some more human 444 00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:50,800 Speaker 1: resources to form up the better army than the male army, 445 00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:55,920 Speaker 1: you know. And for the arms and ammunitions, we got 446 00:30:56,120 --> 00:31:00,520 Speaker 1: a lot of arm and ammunitions from the male like AMI, 447 00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:07,120 Speaker 1: but we it's they use a different type of the ammunitions. 448 00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:10,960 Speaker 1: And then because we, for example, we use like A 449 00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:16,080 Speaker 1: K types, we have the different so it is not 450 00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:22,360 Speaker 1: very possible to arm the better weapons from the the 451 00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:28,200 Speaker 1: Maylie amy. We only used some of the weapons, like 452 00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:33,120 Speaker 1: for the artillery or something like that, but that's only 453 00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:37,400 Speaker 1: a few we got from them. What we really need 454 00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:42,080 Speaker 1: is about the better artillery or S A M or 455 00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:46,520 Speaker 1: something like that for the air strips. So yeah, it's 456 00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:51,520 Speaker 1: not very usedful for us from the anthem ammunition we 457 00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:55,840 Speaker 1: got from the Male Army. He said that the main 458 00:31:56,000 --> 00:32:00,320 Speaker 1: points in the arm revolution is it's about two cature 459 00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:05,200 Speaker 1: the important points, not to catcha all the CDs or 460 00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:11,120 Speaker 1: something like that, like to catchure the enemy sec quotas 461 00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:16,960 Speaker 1: or the important places. We are going to need more plants, 462 00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:20,600 Speaker 1: and then he say that he's unclear about that. 463 00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:24,040 Speaker 2: I asked Billy what he thought we could expect in 464 00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:27,640 Speaker 2: the new Mianma. I see points out here. Everything every 465 00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:30,720 Speaker 2: circled analysts has said has been proven wrong by the revolution. 466 00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:35,320 Speaker 2: They've exceeded the wildest expectations of experts in London and Washington, DC, 467 00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:38,280 Speaker 2: and where they go next is really up to them. 468 00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:40,560 Speaker 4: Good question, and frankly, I don't have a lot of 469 00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:44,560 Speaker 4: information about that. I mean, you've seen pictures over the 470 00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:48,240 Speaker 4: past twelve days of the as the resistance has taken 471 00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:51,400 Speaker 4: one hundred and fifty posts. They've definitely captured a lot 472 00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:56,960 Speaker 4: of heavy munitions and artillery, but yeah, I'm not sure 473 00:32:57,080 --> 00:33:00,040 Speaker 4: service to air capabilities. I mean, I think the the 474 00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:04,479 Speaker 4: fact that the Menommur military is not able to push 475 00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:08,000 Speaker 4: the resistance out of urban areas. I mean, this is 476 00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:11,040 Speaker 4: the first time really that the resistance moved into urban 477 00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:13,760 Speaker 4: areas and held them, including into guy and I mean 478 00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:19,080 Speaker 4: Colon has been they're holding it and so I mean 479 00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:21,040 Speaker 4: that seems to be an indication to me that the 480 00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:26,560 Speaker 4: ESSAYCS capability is weakening. I mean, yeah, their their access 481 00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:32,760 Speaker 4: to foreign currency and to purchase weapons is highly constrained now. 482 00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:37,400 Speaker 4: I mean their primary providers Russia and China, you know, 483 00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:39,640 Speaker 4: ones fighting their own war and the other is kind 484 00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:41,920 Speaker 4: of is a little bit more skeptical as to whether 485 00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:46,360 Speaker 4: they deserve their support. I mean they just last week 486 00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:50,200 Speaker 4: the US initiated new sanctions on the Meanoma oil and 487 00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:53,720 Speaker 4: Gas enterprise. They provided half a billion dollars in revenue 488 00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:58,520 Speaker 4: for the junta per year. Yeah, that's a major that's 489 00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:01,960 Speaker 4: a major issue for them accessing US dollars, which they 490 00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:05,959 Speaker 4: need to buy weapons. I mean, the Ties can no 491 00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:11,600 Speaker 4: longer pay the Memoir military and USD and the memor 492 00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:15,760 Speaker 4: military doesn't want bought, so they're literally negotiating barter agreements 493 00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:20,799 Speaker 4: where they you know, sell gas for material goods. But 494 00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:24,120 Speaker 4: now you have the Resistance controlling you know, part of 495 00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:27,040 Speaker 4: cocker Rig on the Asia Highway into Thailand. I mean, 496 00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:30,080 Speaker 4: they control the borders or the starting to in a 497 00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:33,080 Speaker 4: way they hadn't before, So even this sort of bartering 498 00:34:33,200 --> 00:34:38,640 Speaker 4: or material trade is less viable. So yeah, I mean, 499 00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:43,760 Speaker 4: I think they're just really asset constrained. And it does 500 00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:45,799 Speaker 4: I mean, just the fact that they haven't been able 501 00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:51,080 Speaker 4: to retake these critical logistic ups. I mean, the border 502 00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:54,400 Speaker 4: crossings that the Resistance has have controlled constitute forty percent 503 00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:59,240 Speaker 4: of the of the of the overland trade between China 504 00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:01,800 Speaker 4: and memor It's like, you know, it's like four billion 505 00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:05,520 Speaker 4: dollars in value that's being you know, that tax loss 506 00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:10,080 Speaker 4: for the SAC it's considerable. It's considerable losses there as well. 507 00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:12,719 Speaker 4: And how long they can really hold out and maintain 508 00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:17,839 Speaker 4: their air assets is really questionable, particularly since they've had 509 00:35:17,880 --> 00:35:22,799 Speaker 4: to massively diversify their air asset purchase, which really makes 510 00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:28,279 Speaker 4: it more complex to service points. And so yeah, I mean, 511 00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:30,440 Speaker 4: I think I'm not sure that the Resistance has much 512 00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:33,200 Speaker 4: more capacity in service to air or air defense, but 513 00:35:34,239 --> 00:35:39,200 Speaker 4: it does seem like the SACS capacity to inflict atrocities 514 00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:40,680 Speaker 4: in this way has also been constrained. 515 00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:42,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, it sort of flies in the face of every 516 00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:46,840 Speaker 2: sort of like analytical idea about the assets that you 517 00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:49,400 Speaker 2: need to have in order to be successful in one 518 00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:51,400 Speaker 2: of these Like they've they've really proved a lot of 519 00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:55,600 Speaker 2: people wrong in a really impressive way. I know, you 520 00:35:55,640 --> 00:35:58,120 Speaker 2: have to go I want to ask one more real 521 00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:04,680 Speaker 2: quick the did these towns did the SAC pull out 522 00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:08,160 Speaker 2: of the towns or did they like fight house to 523 00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:10,480 Speaker 2: house or like how did they did it? 524 00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:15,279 Speaker 4: Very across Well, the I mean the SAC was you know, 525 00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:19,719 Speaker 4: in their barracks themselves. I mean in these towns, it's 526 00:36:19,719 --> 00:36:23,200 Speaker 4: a national uprising. The public is you know, opposed to 527 00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:28,640 Speaker 4: the presence. This is an occupying force, and so yeah, 528 00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:32,640 Speaker 4: it's just moving in and capturing military posts. And as 529 00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:37,160 Speaker 4: one person resistance fighter indicated, essentially you fire your gun 530 00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:39,399 Speaker 4: in the air and they lay down their weapons, which 531 00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:42,200 Speaker 4: is more you know, an indication of of where the 532 00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:47,239 Speaker 4: military stands and the support that these these highly isolated 533 00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:49,720 Speaker 4: I mean, this is a fractured light infantry force that's 534 00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:55,120 Speaker 4: dispersed at posts all over the country, and you know 535 00:36:55,160 --> 00:37:00,000 Speaker 4: they're resupplying from the Northwest Command in monuoas to town 536 00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:03,920 Speaker 4: within thirty minutes drive by helicopter because they can't they 537 00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:10,400 Speaker 4: can't move, so there's just not logistics support to these posts. 538 00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:13,360 Speaker 4: And so yeah, you've got folks in there that just 539 00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:18,400 Speaker 4: the will to fight is pretty small. Morale is shrinking 540 00:37:18,680 --> 00:37:21,879 Speaker 4: from a very low base, and so I think there 541 00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:26,200 Speaker 4: was the The general pattern is just resistance taking military 542 00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:31,120 Speaker 4: barracks and posts rather than having to go house to house. 543 00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:34,680 Speaker 4: I mean there's villages in towns where there's these groups 544 00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:40,239 Speaker 4: called pew Sawtee that are like military aligned militias, but yeah, 545 00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:45,440 Speaker 4: that's not really you know, a nationwide fighting force, and 546 00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:48,080 Speaker 4: it's in most cases it really is just the resistance 547 00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:54,920 Speaker 4: capturing posts and pushing out a military personnel. And I 548 00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:58,000 Speaker 4: mean there was a they're also using drones to a 549 00:37:58,120 --> 00:38:01,680 Speaker 4: high degree of effectiveness. They recently killed a colonel who 550 00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:07,160 Speaker 4: was on he was about to be become a brigadier general, 551 00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:10,040 Speaker 4: the highest ranking person who have been killed in battle 552 00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:13,560 Speaker 4: from the Memora military through a drone strike in northern 553 00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:19,120 Speaker 4: Shun State, I believe for kit Chen and I think that, yeah, 554 00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:24,239 Speaker 4: the resistance drone capabilities have also increased considerably. And this 555 00:38:24,360 --> 00:38:26,600 Speaker 4: is also an area where you see NUG collaborating a 556 00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:33,279 Speaker 4: lot with the arrows. So yeah, it's it's it's just yeah, 557 00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:39,600 Speaker 4: it's a barracks, you know, menmoial military personnel and they 558 00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:42,720 Speaker 4: just in many cases just lay down their arms because 559 00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:46,160 Speaker 4: it's just morale so low, and the probability of them 560 00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:49,440 Speaker 4: to be able to fend off indefinitely is when they 561 00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:52,239 Speaker 4: have the public against them and a resistance movement against them. 562 00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:54,799 Speaker 4: It's just really a challenge ex set of conditions for them. 563 00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:09,120 Speaker 2: We don't know exactly what the future of Myanmar is, 564 00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:11,759 Speaker 2: but it took an interesting turn in the last few 565 00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:15,280 Speaker 2: weeks with the k and DF the Saquareni National Defense 566 00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:19,120 Speaker 2: Force fifth Battalion issuing a statement of solidarity with the 567 00:39:19,160 --> 00:39:22,440 Speaker 2: people of Rejava and the people of Java in the 568 00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:25,080 Speaker 2: form of the YPG and the YPGA, their defense units 569 00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:28,719 Speaker 2: of men and women respectively, recording a response a great 570 00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:32,440 Speaker 2: risk during the ongoing grown campaign expressing their solidarity and 571 00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:36,319 Speaker 2: support for the revolutionary people of Myanmar, something will cover 572 00:39:36,440 --> 00:39:39,120 Speaker 2: in greater detail on another episode, but it's yet another 573 00:39:39,160 --> 00:39:42,400 Speaker 2: illustration of how the revolutionary people of Myanmar have continued 574 00:39:42,440 --> 00:39:47,160 Speaker 2: to defy everyone's expectations about how and where they will 575 00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:49,759 Speaker 2: go next, and how they've managed to dream up a 576 00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:52,880 Speaker 2: vision for a more equal and just future even as 577 00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:56,000 Speaker 2: they face the injustice and inequality of fighting a war 578 00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:58,640 Speaker 2: the world doesn't seem to care about without a single 579 00:39:58,719 --> 00:40:02,480 Speaker 2: dollar of international military little support, and then strongly worded 580 00:40:02,560 --> 00:40:05,799 Speaker 2: letters from the UN At sporadic intervals. As we come 581 00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:08,280 Speaker 2: to the end of the episode, I asked Sam Montine 582 00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:10,960 Speaker 2: if he had anything else he would like to share 583 00:40:11,000 --> 00:40:11,640 Speaker 2: with our listeners. 584 00:40:12,160 --> 00:40:13,640 Speaker 3: Okay, he said that. 585 00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:20,440 Speaker 1: If he is able to talk, he wants them to 586 00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:26,399 Speaker 1: know that we are not the white people. We most 587 00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:30,279 Speaker 1: of them are educated, and we are only plying for 588 00:40:30,960 --> 00:40:36,800 Speaker 1: the democracy. But in some international news there will be 589 00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:43,480 Speaker 1: some news that, like PDF the revolution forces are killing 590 00:40:43,600 --> 00:40:46,960 Speaker 1: each other or something like that, but it's like not 591 00:40:47,800 --> 00:40:52,360 Speaker 1: fully correct. Maybe some a few will be doing that, 592 00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:56,399 Speaker 1: but most of us are not doing that way. 593 00:40:57,200 --> 00:40:59,000 Speaker 3: It's just a propagonna from. 594 00:40:58,880 --> 00:41:00,520 Speaker 1: The like me. 595 00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:05,319 Speaker 3: You know. We also say that we are no more 596 00:41:06,320 --> 00:41:09,000 Speaker 3: expecting for the help from the other countries. 597 00:41:10,040 --> 00:41:13,680 Speaker 1: We will be fighting our own and then with our 598 00:41:14,080 --> 00:41:18,680 Speaker 1: spiritatively in And he also wanted to say that to 599 00:41:19,120 --> 00:41:23,880 Speaker 1: the US government or the King of England or the 600 00:41:24,160 --> 00:41:31,640 Speaker 1: other countries authorities that we are not wild ones. We 601 00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:36,080 Speaker 1: are educated, and then we are just fighting to get 602 00:41:36,160 --> 00:41:37,880 Speaker 1: the democracy back to our country. 603 00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:40,120 Speaker 3: He's using a little. 604 00:41:39,840 --> 00:41:45,120 Speaker 1: Bit from wards, you know, say that if other governments 605 00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:49,719 Speaker 1: are not helping us because they can't get any benefits 606 00:41:50,239 --> 00:41:53,920 Speaker 1: from helping us, even if they don't want to help us, 607 00:41:54,680 --> 00:41:58,720 Speaker 1: just don't look as like we are the wild ones. 608 00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:03,920 Speaker 1: We will be trying to get the level of the 609 00:42:04,000 --> 00:42:08,839 Speaker 1: other countries. We will always be trying for that. If 610 00:42:09,000 --> 00:42:12,960 Speaker 1: you have any chance to speak out in a seminar 611 00:42:13,560 --> 00:42:17,600 Speaker 1: or the workshops or any other things or any meetings, 612 00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:24,160 Speaker 1: he wants you to tell the news about killings each 613 00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:30,800 Speaker 1: other of our revolution forces is just a propagunnas of sac. 614 00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:36,120 Speaker 1: If there is no more Sac, there would be no 615 00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:41,200 Speaker 1: issues like the anymore. Most of some issues are just 616 00:42:41,360 --> 00:42:45,280 Speaker 1: because of Sac and then they spread in some rumors 617 00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:48,759 Speaker 1: about that and then take news. You know, if you 618 00:42:48,880 --> 00:42:51,920 Speaker 1: guys can come and visit us, and then you can 619 00:42:52,080 --> 00:42:56,320 Speaker 1: see how we treat people, and then how we respect 620 00:42:56,560 --> 00:43:00,320 Speaker 1: the civilians, and then how we follow a lot of 621 00:43:00,440 --> 00:43:02,080 Speaker 1: context in person. 622 00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:04,719 Speaker 2: If you want to follow the mate APDF, you can 623 00:43:04,760 --> 00:43:07,520 Speaker 2: search them on Facebook. Where they post regular updates. We'll 624 00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:09,960 Speaker 2: include the link in the show notes for you. If 625 00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:11,719 Speaker 2: you want to hear more from Billy, I'll let him 626 00:43:11,719 --> 00:43:13,000 Speaker 2: tell you how sure. 627 00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:15,640 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, we put out a paper at us 628 00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:20,200 Speaker 4: IP dot org yesterday on the relationship between the scam 629 00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:24,880 Speaker 4: operations and the the the conflict dynamics. I'm putting one 630 00:43:24,920 --> 00:43:30,239 Speaker 4: out probably next week on the day after quote unquote dynamics, 631 00:43:31,080 --> 00:43:35,480 Speaker 4: summarizing some of our research. I'm on Twitter at b 632 00:43:35,719 --> 00:43:38,320 Speaker 4: I L L E E the number four, the letter D, 633 00:43:38,600 --> 00:43:41,120 Speaker 4: so you can try to stay up on some of 634 00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:45,600 Speaker 4: the conflict dynamics there. But yeah, the USIP website where 635 00:43:45,640 --> 00:43:47,480 Speaker 4: we published most of our most of our stuff. 636 00:43:48,320 --> 00:43:51,120 Speaker 2: In closing, I just want to share how much hope 637 00:43:51,120 --> 00:43:53,240 Speaker 2: I found in the conflict in the MR in recent weeks. 638 00:43:53,880 --> 00:43:56,240 Speaker 2: At a time when the world seems so full of cruelty, 639 00:43:56,920 --> 00:44:00,960 Speaker 2: it's inspiring to see people relatively unified, committed to respecting 640 00:44:01,040 --> 00:44:05,120 Speaker 2: life and civilians and succeeding against all the odds. This 641 00:44:05,239 --> 00:44:08,759 Speaker 2: doesn't mean they don't need help. They do desperately, and 642 00:44:09,200 --> 00:44:11,560 Speaker 2: I hope that as people continue to advocate to civilians 643 00:44:11,600 --> 00:44:15,320 Speaker 2: in Gaza, they can include civilians and revolutionaries from Meandmark 644 00:44:15,400 --> 00:44:22,719 Speaker 2: in their demands going forward, It could happen here as 645 00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:24,200 Speaker 2: a production of cool Zone Media. 646 00:44:24,440 --> 00:44:27,080 Speaker 1: For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website 647 00:44:27,160 --> 00:44:29,320 Speaker 1: cool zonemedia dot com or check us out on the 648 00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:32,800 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. 649 00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:35,520 Speaker 1: You can find sources for It could Happen Here, updated 650 00:44:35,600 --> 00:44:39,600 Speaker 1: monthly at cool zonemedia dot com slash sources. Thanks for listening.