WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Priya Misra & Ellen Zentner

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>Single best idea after one of the most exhausting weeks

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<v Speaker 2>in decades and decades. I'm not going to bore you

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<v Speaker 2>with what's happened here. You can do your own look

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<v Speaker 2>back on how you perceive this week in economics, finance, investment,

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<v Speaker 2>truly in international relations. One of our stellar guests on

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<v Speaker 2>this Jobsday Friday just said, simply, it's a revolution of

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<v Speaker 2>finance in Japan and across Europe, and of course particularly

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<v Speaker 2>with the leadership of Germany. This after all the uproar

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<v Speaker 2>of Ukraine. There was a tweet late in the show

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<v Speaker 2>this morning from the President of the United States. By

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<v Speaker 2>the time you listen to the single best idea today,

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know where we are. What I do know

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<v Speaker 2>is we had Pria Misery with us with JP Morgan.

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<v Speaker 2>She was just wonderful synthesizing this all into what price

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<v Speaker 2>and yield will do. Here is Pria misra on this

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<v Speaker 2>Jobs Day.

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<v Speaker 3>So I know cash feels good because you get that

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<v Speaker 3>four percent yield. Here's what cash will not do for

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<v Speaker 3>you is give you any reversification benefit. So that's why

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<v Speaker 3>we've been seeing inflows into fixed income. But you just

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<v Speaker 3>have to look at price action, whether it was deep

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<v Speaker 3>seek Monday or tariff Tuesday. I guess tariff Wednesday, Thursday

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<v Speaker 3>as well, or today if you get a weaker payroll

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<v Speaker 3>report and risk acids struggle because you know, the President

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<v Speaker 3>said little discomfort. I mean, I think some of us

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<v Speaker 3>might be feeling a little more than that. But I

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<v Speaker 3>think they're telling you that their pain point is not here.

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<v Speaker 3>So you need something that will help you stay in

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<v Speaker 3>risk assets, fixed income, high quality, fixed income duration. Actually

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<v Speaker 3>that's what's going to work, because the market's only pricing

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<v Speaker 3>in a few cuts here right even though the FED

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<v Speaker 3>is not likely to start to cut rates anytime soon.

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<v Speaker 3>Markets forward looking, and if the economy is slowing down,

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<v Speaker 3>if the uncertainty shock is enough to increase the risk

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<v Speaker 3>of a recession, the market can price in many mock cuts.

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<v Speaker 2>Primusra of JP Morgan. They're working with Bob Michael, of

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<v Speaker 2>course managing bond portfolios for total return and as she said,

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<v Speaker 2>a good coupon right now among the worries. Thank you

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<v Speaker 2>Claudia Sam for her wonderful perspective around the jobs report.

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<v Speaker 2>We did ask doctor Sam about the beginning ideas of

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<v Speaker 2>a growth slow down. She pushed very hard against in

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<v Speaker 2>any way modeling out recession. After her, it was Ellen

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<v Speaker 2>Zenner of Morgan Stanley with thematic investing there with all

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<v Speaker 2>her economics on the consumer. And to Ellen Zenner we

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<v Speaker 2>talked about well about risk and uncertainty and this idea

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<v Speaker 2>of is there any certitude to be had in twenty

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<v Speaker 2>twenty five.

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<v Speaker 1>It can be very pervasive if it's sustained now in

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<v Speaker 1>the twenties and on through say the seventies. Right, certainty

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<v Speaker 1>we would be reflected in sentiment. But and it told

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<v Speaker 1>you exactly what businesses and households were going to do.

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<v Speaker 1>And I'm talking specifically about University of Michigan, the rise

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<v Speaker 1>of the sentiment surveys in the nineteen fifties onwards. Today,

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<v Speaker 1>uncertainty impacts sentiment, but it doesn't necessarily tell you what

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<v Speaker 1>you're going to do. Right, my husband will tell you

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<v Speaker 1>that I shop when I feel great, I shop when

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<v Speaker 1>I feel like help. Okay, But if it is sustained

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<v Speaker 1>at high levels, it will start to permeate business investment decisions,

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<v Speaker 1>household spending decisions when people can't plan. And I'm looking

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<v Speaker 1>at the Trade policy Uncertainty index which has gone through

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<v Speaker 1>the roof, and it has surpassed the previous record set

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<v Speaker 1>in August of twenty nineteen. And that is what you're

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<v Speaker 1>seeing in these surveys, and businesses are saying, I can't do.

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<v Speaker 2>This, Ellen Zentner, on this job's day. I can't say

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<v Speaker 2>enough about the conversations this week, even with Margaret Brennan

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<v Speaker 2>of Faceinination and CBS and of course here Face the

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<v Speaker 2>Nation on Bloomberg Radio in New Washington, New York and

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<v Speaker 2>Boston here Sunday at two pm. But I just I

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<v Speaker 2>can't imagine where we will be one week from today

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<v Speaker 2>and your commute across the nation. It is Bloomberg surveillance

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<v Speaker 2>and YouTube podcasts at single best idea