Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2: Single best idea after one of the most exhausting weeks
Speaker 2: in decades and decades. I'm not going to bore you
Speaker 2: with what's happened here. You can do your own look
Speaker 2: back on how you perceive this week in economics, finance, investment,
Speaker 2: truly in international relations. One of our stellar guests on
Speaker 2: this Jobsday Friday just said, simply, it's a revolution of
Speaker 2: finance in Japan and across Europe, and of course particularly
Speaker 2: with the leadership of Germany. This after all the uproar
Speaker 2: of Ukraine. There was a tweet late in the show
Speaker 2: this morning from the President of the United States. By
Speaker 2: the time you listen to the single best idea today,
Speaker 2: I don't know where we are. What I do know
Speaker 2: is we had Pria Misery with us with JP Morgan.
Speaker 2: She was just wonderful synthesizing this all into what price
Speaker 2: and yield will do. Here is Pria misra on this
Speaker 2: Jobs Day.
Speaker 3: So I know cash feels good because you get that
Speaker 3: four percent yield. Here's what cash will not do for
Speaker 3: you is give you any reversification benefit. So that's why
Speaker 3: we've been seeing inflows into fixed income. But you just
Speaker 3: have to look at price action, whether it was deep
Speaker 3: seek Monday or tariff Tuesday. I guess tariff Wednesday, Thursday
Speaker 3: as well, or today if you get a weaker payroll
Speaker 3: report and risk acids struggle because you know, the President
Speaker 3: said little discomfort. I mean, I think some of us
Speaker 3: might be feeling a little more than that. But I
Speaker 3: think they're telling you that their pain point is not here.
Speaker 3: So you need something that will help you stay in
Speaker 3: risk assets, fixed income, high quality, fixed income duration. Actually
Speaker 3: that's what's going to work, because the market's only pricing
Speaker 3: in a few cuts here right even though the FED
Speaker 3: is not likely to start to cut rates anytime soon.
Speaker 3: Markets forward looking, and if the economy is slowing down,
Speaker 3: if the uncertainty shock is enough to increase the risk
Speaker 3: of a recession, the market can price in many mock cuts.
Speaker 2: Primusra of JP Morgan. They're working with Bob Michael, of
Speaker 2: course managing bond portfolios for total return and as she said,
Speaker 2: a good coupon right now among the worries. Thank you
Speaker 2: Claudia Sam for her wonderful perspective around the jobs report.
Speaker 2: We did ask doctor Sam about the beginning ideas of
Speaker 2: a growth slow down. She pushed very hard against in
Speaker 2: any way modeling out recession. After her, it was Ellen
Speaker 2: Zenner of Morgan Stanley with thematic investing there with all
Speaker 2: her economics on the consumer. And to Ellen Zenner we
Speaker 2: talked about well about risk and uncertainty and this idea
Speaker 2: of is there any certitude to be had in twenty
Speaker 2: twenty five.
Speaker 1: It can be very pervasive if it's sustained now in
Speaker 1: the twenties and on through say the seventies. Right, certainty
Speaker 1: we would be reflected in sentiment. But and it told
Speaker 1: you exactly what businesses and households were going to do.
Speaker 1: And I'm talking specifically about University of Michigan, the rise
Speaker 1: of the sentiment surveys in the nineteen fifties onwards. Today,
Speaker 1: uncertainty impacts sentiment, but it doesn't necessarily tell you what
Speaker 1: you're going to do. Right, my husband will tell you
Speaker 1: that I shop when I feel great, I shop when
Speaker 1: I feel like help. Okay, But if it is sustained
Speaker 1: at high levels, it will start to permeate business investment decisions,
Speaker 1: household spending decisions when people can't plan. And I'm looking
Speaker 1: at the Trade policy Uncertainty index which has gone through
Speaker 1: the roof, and it has surpassed the previous record set
Speaker 1: in August of twenty nineteen. And that is what you're
Speaker 1: seeing in these surveys, and businesses are saying, I can't do.
Speaker 2: This, Ellen Zentner, on this job's day. I can't say
Speaker 2: enough about the conversations this week, even with Margaret Brennan
Speaker 2: of Faceinination and CBS and of course here Face the
Speaker 2: Nation on Bloomberg Radio in New Washington, New York and
Speaker 2: Boston here Sunday at two pm. But I just I
Speaker 2: can't imagine where we will be one week from today
Speaker 2: and your commute across the nation. It is Bloomberg surveillance
Speaker 2: and YouTube podcasts at single best idea