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Speaker 1: Welcome to zero. I am Akshadarrati. This week, America's reset.

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump is backed and possibly with the biggest mandate

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Speaker 1: he's ever had that will have huge implications for climate

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Speaker 1: and energy not just in the US but around the world.

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Speaker 1: So this week I wanted to talk to someone who

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Speaker 1: has been on the front lines of climate policy making,

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Speaker 1: someone who's a Democrat and was lucky to be re elected.

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Speaker 1: Congressman Rocanna represents California's seventeenth district, which includes Silicon Valley.

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Speaker 1: Over the years, he's been a vocal advocate for climate policy,

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Speaker 1: and he's also a member of the Select Committee on

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Speaker 1: the Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese

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Speaker 1: Communist Party. That means he has a big job to

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Speaker 1: help secure America's future leadership in technology. In my conversation,

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Speaker 1: I asked him about the consequences of Trump's election and what,

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Speaker 1: if anything, can Democrats do to keep climate and clean

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Speaker 1: energy at the top of the agenda. Later I also

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Speaker 1: talked to Jason Bordoff from the Center on Global Energy

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Speaker 1: Policy at Columbia University. We talked about how a Trump

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Speaker 1: administration is likely to shape our climate and energy future,

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Speaker 1: and it's not simply just drill, Baby, drill. Welcome to

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Speaker 1: the show, Representative Kannor. It's a huge day today with

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Speaker 1: the election, and when this episode goes out, the country

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Speaker 1: will still be sorting through the many reasons Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: was elected as president and the many issues that voters

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Speaker 1: were responding to. But just days before the election, you

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Speaker 1: wrote an op ed for Rolling Stone arguing that the

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Speaker 1: polls were underestimating the importance of climate change to the

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Speaker 1: average American. You said, climate change really is a kitchen

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Speaker 1: table issue. But now there is in the old office

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Speaker 1: who many people would call a climate denier coming in January.

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Speaker 1: So how do you understand what just happened in the

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Speaker 1: election in terms of where were to see the significance

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Speaker 1: of climate change.

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Speaker 2: It's important that we take away the right lesson from

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Speaker 2: the election result. Obviously it was devastating for many of

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Speaker 2: us who care about climate and progressive values, but it

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Speaker 2: was in the context of people being unhappy about inflation,

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Speaker 2: unhappy about the cost of living, unhappy about the situation

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Speaker 2: on the border. Incumbent part parties have lost around the world,

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Speaker 2: and in retrospect, having a president with forty percent approval

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Speaker 2: rating made it very, very hard for whoever was running.

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Speaker 2: But that doesn't mean that voters, particularly younger voters, aren't

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Speaker 2: going to care about climate. I think there is an

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Speaker 2: extraordinary opportunity to organize and mobilize around it with Trump

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Speaker 2: coming to power, and to be prepared to run on

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Speaker 2: that agenda in twenty twenty six and in twenty twenty eight.

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Speaker 2: We need to make it clear that the world needs

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Speaker 2: to invest in solar, which is the cheapest form of

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Speaker 2: energy right now three cents to a kilowatt hour compared

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Speaker 2: to natural gas at six cents and oil at seventh sense,

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Speaker 2: that we need a climate resiliency infrastructure, and we've got

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Speaker 2: to keep making the case. The one point I'll make

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Speaker 2: is the Civil Rights Act in America was introduced in

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Speaker 2: nineteen sixty four. I understand what the climate emergency time

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Speaker 2: is of the essence, but progress takes time, and my

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Speaker 2: message to the climate activist is let's keep going.

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Speaker 1: But when you listed the things that people voted on,

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Speaker 1: you said, there's immigration, there's inflation, there is the anti

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Speaker 1: incumbency factor, but it does say that even today climate

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Speaker 1: is not yet a kitchen table issue. How do you

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Speaker 1: make it one?

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Speaker 2: Well, it is an issue for many young Americans, for sure,

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Speaker 2: and it's a kitchen table issue in terms of the

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Speaker 2: people who are dealing with the awful costs of hurricanes

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Speaker 2: and storms. But it's not as alien as people going

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Speaker 2: into a grocery store and seeing that the price of

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Speaker 2: groceries has gone up, people seeing that they can't afford

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Speaker 2: a house until you have your basic needs met. Very

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Speaker 2: hard to think broadly about the issues of what's good

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Speaker 2: for the climate and the planet. So first we've got

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Speaker 2: to make sure that we're talking about the day to

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Speaker 2: day economic lives of people. And then we've got to

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Speaker 2: continue to make the case that climate disasters are hurting

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Speaker 2: the economy of America and having a negative impact on

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Speaker 2: their kids and their lives. But it's very hard to

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Speaker 2: make that central when people are not being able to

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Speaker 2: pay the bills.

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Speaker 1: Now, President Joe Biden's climate legacy is notable. We saw

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Speaker 1: historic climate legislation get passed under his administration. But I

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Speaker 1: do want to ask you what happens to the legacy now,

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Speaker 1: And I think we should take it piece by peace,

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Speaker 1: because there were three big piece of legislation that were passed.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with the Inflation Reduction Act. What do you

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Speaker 1: think stays, and what do you think goes.

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Speaker 2: I believe that many of the tax credits will stay,

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Speaker 2: and the reason is those are crediting jobs in red states.

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Speaker 2: I mean, is Governor Kemp going to advocate not to

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Speaker 2: have his state is getting a lot of those battery

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Speaker 2: factories and those solar plants. I had actually been critical

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Speaker 2: of the administration saying why aren't we getting them in

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Speaker 2: more Union states? Why aren't we getting them more in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania.

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Speaker 2: But one advantage of having them disproportionately in the red

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Speaker 2: states is it's going to be harder to take those away.

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Speaker 2: Is Elon Musk really going to say to Donald Trump guests,

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Speaker 2: let's take away the tax credit for electric vehicles or

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Speaker 2: impose the two hundred thousand vehicle cap again, I don't

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Speaker 2: think so. So I am confident hopeful that a lot

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Speaker 2: of that will stay. I am concerned that he's going

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Speaker 2: to start drilling in anwar. He's going to start grilling

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Speaker 2: everywhere that we're going to have more efforts at subsidies

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Speaker 2: for fossil fuel companies, and that to me is the

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Speaker 2: bigger danger.

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Speaker 1: Do you think he will also chip at the bypart

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Speaker 1: as an Infrastructure Deal or the Chips Act.

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Speaker 2: You know the Chips Act. I helped write the Chips

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Speaker 2: in SIZAC, which Senator Schumer, and it's originated by a

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Speaker 2: guy named Pete Crouch in the Trump administration. It was

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Speaker 2: an idea that the Trump administration under POMPEII and started.

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Speaker 2: So it would be short sighted, very short sighted for

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Speaker 2: him to say America doesn't need to have industrial policy

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Speaker 2: to make sure semiconductors are here and there. Many people

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Speaker 2: in his administration would say we need that given the

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Speaker 2: rise of China, that we need a self reliance. So

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Speaker 2: he may tinker with it, but I would be surprised

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Speaker 2: if he repeals it. And even Johnson, who talked about

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Speaker 2: repealing it, walk that statement back. Same thing with the

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Speaker 2: Infrastructure Bill. I mean, he's talked about infrastructure so many times.

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Speaker 2: We got it done. But my hope is, if anything,

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Speaker 2: he'd expand it. I don't think he's going to repeal that.

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Speaker 2: There may be efforts to repeal parts of the IRA

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Speaker 2: that are dealing with subsidies and satims for solar and wind,

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Speaker 2: but I'm hopeful we'll be able to block that. I

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Speaker 2: do think where he's going to try to really make

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Speaker 2: a difference is on the EPA and taking away a

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Speaker 2: lot of the rules that the EPA put on clean water,

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Speaker 2: on p fast contamination, on other areas regulation.

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Speaker 1: Let's come to oil production, because it is something you

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Speaker 1: have been vocal about. You have criticized big ol companies

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Speaker 1: for holding back climent action. But the fact is the

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Speaker 1: US produces more oil than any other country in history.

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Speaker 1: The US produces fifty percent more oil today than Saudi Arabia,

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Speaker 1: and a lot of that increase, by the way, has

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Speaker 1: come under the Biden administration. But of course Trump has

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Speaker 1: come to the fore saying he wants more oil to come. Drill, baby, drill.

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Speaker 1: None of this looks good for America's energy transition. What

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Speaker 1: do you think it will take to move the US

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Speaker 1: away from fossil fuels.

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Speaker 2: Well, the economics should dictate US diversifying. I mean, it's

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Speaker 2: like I said, three cents a killowt hour on solar,

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Speaker 2: whereas it's six or seven sets of killoot hour on

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Speaker 2: oil and natural gas. And we're foolish to not be

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Speaker 2: investing in the energy supplies of the future. We're foolish

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Speaker 2: not to be investing in energy supplies that are better

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Speaker 2: for our national security than a dependence on a product

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Speaker 2: that also improves the geopolitical situation of Russia, Iran and Venezuela.

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Speaker 2: So I think what we have to do is make

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Speaker 2: the argument that we are the party of the energy

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Speaker 2: of the future guests. We have to have this transition

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Speaker 2: in a way that makes sense. That you need oil

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Speaker 2: and natural gas until there's an abundance of nuclear and

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Speaker 2: solar and wind and geothermal. But the investments we need

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Speaker 2: to be making are in the new things, just like

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Speaker 2: we need iPhones and laptops, not old desktops or typewriters.

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Speaker 2: Why are we investing in the old infrastructure as opposed

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Speaker 2: to the new. One of the areas I have been

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Speaker 2: focused on is getting rid of fossil fuel subsidies. Obviously

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Speaker 2: that's going to be hard in a Trump administration, but

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Speaker 2: we have to remain focused on that so that when

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Speaker 2: we do get a democratic president, that can be part

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Speaker 2: of the agenda. In the first one hundred days.

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Speaker 1: As we record this, Republicans are likely to take control

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Speaker 1: of this and it as well as the presidency, but

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Speaker 1: the houses still upprograbs. No matter what happens, Democrats like

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Speaker 1: you are going to have to work closely with Republicans

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Speaker 1: to get anything done. Where do you see opportunities to

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Speaker 1: work with Republicans on climate?

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Speaker 2: There are not many on climate. There are other areas

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Speaker 2: where I'm more optimistic. I would hope, at the very

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Speaker 2: least to get some recognition of climate change as existing.

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Speaker 2: I would hope that we could help maybe bring manufacturing

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Speaker 2: back to America. I have a Modernization of Steel Act

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Speaker 2: that would actually bring new steel plants to America that

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Speaker 2: are direct reduction iron based on a hydrogen And one

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Speaker 2: way we could focus on climate is we can reindustrialize

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Speaker 2: America in a better, less carbon emittive way. And maybe

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Speaker 2: we could get the some Republicans on board with that,

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Speaker 2: not because they care about the carbon emissions, but because

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Speaker 2: they care about the new manufacturing.

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Speaker 1: And if you can the carbon equation out, what other

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Speaker 1: types of solutions that are green technologies that may reduce

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Speaker 1: emissions but aren't primarily being targeted for that that you

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Speaker 1: could try and convince Republicans to join. You.

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Speaker 2: Look, I think the Republican Party and its current form

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Speaker 2: is very, very hostile to a lot of policies on climate.

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Speaker 2: Maybe you could get some Republicans to care about clean air,

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Speaker 2: clean water, having standards on p fast in terms of

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Speaker 2: particles per million, or making sure that there's not too

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Speaker 2: much prefat in products. Maybe we could have some preservation

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Speaker 2: of open land. Maybe we can talk about the importance

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Speaker 2: of replacing lead pipes so that we could have clean

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Speaker 2: drinking water. But it's always a push with Republicans on

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Speaker 2: the environment.

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Speaker 1: In my recent conversation with billionaire and Silicon Valley veteran

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Speaker 1: Vinod Coslar, who I assume you know, we talked about

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Speaker 1: the possibility that Elon Musk could become Trump's climate champion.

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Speaker 1: Is this something that you have thought about? Is this

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Speaker 1: something that you've talked to Elon about? Is there any

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Speaker 1: room for that to be somebody in the sphere of

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Speaker 1: influence of Trump who would tell him why acting on

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Speaker 1: climate is important.

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Speaker 2: Well, we know thy have good ideas. I know, but

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Speaker 2: for many years, and I know Ilon. I congratulated him

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Speaker 2: last night, and I think it's worth my talking to

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Speaker 2: Ilon about that. I mean, his focus right now with

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Speaker 2: so much about getting bureaucracy out of the way of

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Speaker 2: what he considers builders and entrepreneurs. But I think if

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Speaker 2: he were to focus also on a climate agenda as

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Speaker 2: part of the rebuild maybe he could break through because

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump obviously has a lot of respect for him,

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Speaker 2: and so it's a good idea, and it'll be one

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Speaker 2: of the topics I'll discuss with the a lot when

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Speaker 2: we meet.

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Speaker 1: Now. Looking outside America, President Trump has long made it

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Speaker 1: clear that he wants the US to leave the Paris Agreement.

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Speaker 1: He withdrew once before in twenty seventeen, but because of

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Speaker 1: a delay that was baked in, the exit was only

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Speaker 1: completed in November of twenty twenty, and soon after President

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Speaker 1: Biden saw to it that the US rejoined. This time,

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Speaker 1: that withdrawal will happen faster and could likely have bigger consequences.

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Speaker 1: The exit time is only one year, and some conservatives

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Speaker 1: are pushing Trump to go further and pull the US

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Speaker 1: out of the climate treaty itself, which could be nigh

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Speaker 1: impossible to join given how divided Congress is. So what

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Speaker 1: do you think happens to global climate diplomacy If the

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Speaker 1: world's biggest economy and the second largest emitter walks out

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Speaker 1: for good.

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Speaker 2: We can't wellk out. We need to resist that, just

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Speaker 2: like we resist walking out of NATO. And the argument

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Speaker 2: I will make to my Republican colleagues, people like Senator Rubio,

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Speaker 2: who drafted legislation to make it very hard for Trump

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Speaker 2: to pull out of NATO, is that pulling out of

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Speaker 2: these climate agreements is seating American leadership to China, which

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Speaker 2: is a huge emitter, ceating American leadership to other nations,

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Speaker 2: and that that's not in the interest of America to

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Speaker 2: lead the world. If you want America to lead in ai,

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Speaker 2: if you want America to lead in crypto, if you

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Speaker 2: want America to lead in biotech, then why wouldn't you

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Speaker 2: want America to lead in climate. It's a matter of

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Speaker 2: our leadership around the world. And I'm hopeful that that

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Speaker 2: argument will carry the day, so that even if Trump

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Speaker 2: engages in a lot of rhetoric about withdrawal, that he's

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Speaker 2: unable to do.

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Speaker 1: So, and on China, you might be able to get

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Speaker 1: bipartisan agreement. The Inflation Reduction Act was an important piece

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Speaker 1: of legislation, and you had Senator Manchin explicitly say that

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Speaker 1: he the key decided vote, supported it because he saw

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Speaker 1: that that would help the US become more competitive against China.

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Speaker 1: Now President Trump is perhaps more adversarial in his position

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Speaker 1: on China, with wanting to have bigger tariffs. But how

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Speaker 1: do you think the US can continue to compete with

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Speaker 1: China on green technologies under a Trump administration.

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Speaker 2: Well, a lot of it's going to come from my district,

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Speaker 2: the private sector. When the private sector sees that the

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Speaker 2: cost of producing renewable energy is going down, they see

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Speaker 2: that the cost of battery storage is going down, that

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Speaker 2: there could be enormous innovation in a huge market, nine

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Speaker 2: trillion dollar market in energy. And yes, the government can

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Speaker 2: help make that easier. But if the government is making

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Speaker 2: it a bit harder, that may slow things down, but

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Speaker 2: it's not going to stop the entrepreneurs for innovating. It's

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Speaker 2: not going to stop many members of Congress from continuing

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Speaker 2: to build these relationships around the world. And so I

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Speaker 2: would say that we have to continue to move forward

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Speaker 2: as states, the cities. This is the private sector because

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Speaker 2: the federal government, while critical, is not the only game

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Speaker 2: in town, and it's not the only thing that defines America.

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Speaker 1: One of the things that has made your district and

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Speaker 1: the state of California, but also so many other states

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Speaker 1: in the US so good at innovating, is because they

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Speaker 1: have attracted immigrants. But the issue that Trump campaigned on

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Speaker 1: and the line he has taken on immigration seems to

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Speaker 1: be pretty detrimental. Do you think the US will continue

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Speaker 1: to attract the level of talent that enable this kind

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Speaker 1: of innovation if Trump follows through on deportation or other

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Speaker 1: radical policies that he has talked about in his campaign

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Speaker 1: in the election.

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Speaker 2: How extremely is I remember his last term, it slowed

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Speaker 2: down immigration. Now partly that was because of COVID, but

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Speaker 2: partly because it was the town he took. Now, the

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Speaker 2: United States is a global race for talent. I mean,

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Speaker 2: we want talented people to help innovate and create companies. Here.

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Speaker 2: Trump had said on All In podcasts that he was

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Speaker 2: open to reforming that process of founders and entrepreneurs and

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Speaker 2: scientists and technology leaders. We'll see what he does, but

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Speaker 2: he would really be kneecapping America if he does not

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Speaker 2: allow us to succeed in the global race for talent.

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Speaker 2: If you're a football team or a basketball team and

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Speaker 2: you've got a great center or a great quarterback who

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Speaker 2: happens to be from Japan, you obviously will do everything

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Speaker 2: to sign them. Well, the same thing is true if

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Speaker 2: you want to be a great company.

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Speaker 1: And taking climate change is easier if countries cooperate. But

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Speaker 1: Trump's narrative is one of competition. We talked a little

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Speaker 1: bit about the US competition with China over green technologies,

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Speaker 1: but under an America First agenda, European countries could also

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Speaker 1: be seen as company editors. How do you think European

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Speaker 1: allies are likely to respond to from on trade, on climate,

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Speaker 1: on tariffs, things that are likely to play in this

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Speaker 1: incoming press.

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Speaker 2: I think they're thinking, how do we survive it, how

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Speaker 2: do we get caught time where Democrats come back into

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Speaker 2: power in Europe at least, But I think they're going

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Speaker 2: to try to do things to mitigate the damage. The

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Speaker 2: hope that a lot of this is populist rhetoric, that

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Speaker 2: cooler heads will prevail, that we don't ignite a trade war.

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Speaker 2: Notice trumpthing mentioned many tariffs in his speech last night,

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Speaker 2: that we don't pull out a NATO, that we're still

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Speaker 2: engaged in the world, and the Europeans need to hear

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Speaker 2: from us from a diverse group of leaders, as the

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Speaker 2: countries elsewhere in India and in the Middle East, about

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Speaker 2: our commitment to staying engaged and recognizing that again the

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Speaker 2: country is divided and the president doesn't speak for everyone.

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Speaker 1: Now we are speaking just days before the start of

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Speaker 1: COP twenty nine and Baku Azerbaijan. Trump doesn't control the

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Speaker 1: White House yet. The US delegation is going to go

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Speaker 1: under President Biden's instructions. But there's a risk that whatever

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Speaker 1: happens at KOP will be irrelevant if Trump pulls out

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Speaker 1: of the Paris Agreement. How do you think Trump's selection

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Speaker 1: affects the discussions that will happen at COP twenty nine.

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Speaker 2: I think the reality is that people are going to

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Speaker 2: be looking for American leadership and reassurance. They're going to say,

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Speaker 2: what is the consequences of this? Who is going to

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Speaker 2: be pulling out of what treaties? What is Trump going

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Speaker 2: to do to hurt climate? But there we have to

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Speaker 2: reassure them that there's still a lot of climate activities

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Speaker 2: people who care about the climate there. It would be

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Speaker 2: important in my view, for the Trump administration to send

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Speaker 2: someone there, and maybe as an initial matter, I can

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Speaker 2: talk to Elon or others about the importance of US

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Speaker 2: having representation there from the incoming new administration. But the

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Speaker 2: key for surviving four years of Trump on climate is

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Speaker 2: two progued. One is to make the argument to people

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Speaker 2: in the Trump administration who may be sympathetic from a

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Speaker 2: perspective of just American leadership and American innovation. And secondly,

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Speaker 2: to make the case to the world in America still

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Speaker 2: remains the technological leader in so many climate areas, and

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Speaker 2: so many people like Bill Gates, like John Dorr, like

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Speaker 2: the No North COASTLA like Elon Musk, remain committed to

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Speaker 2: solving the climate problem and they shouldn't write off the

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Speaker 2: entire country because of who our president is, who got

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Speaker 2: elected with fifty one fifty two percent of the vote

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Speaker 2: and forty eight percent descent.

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Speaker 1: Well, last time around, when Trump was elected, Paris Agreement

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Speaker 1: had just been signed, The climate agenda was in ascendency.

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Speaker 1: People were recognizing that, Okay, the US might have pulled out,

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Speaker 1: but rest of the world is committed. Then around twenty twenty,

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Speaker 1: when Joe Biden was elected, there was a backlash against Trump,

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Speaker 1: but also there's clear recognition that climate is front of

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Speaker 1: the agenda. ESG investing, environmental social governance investing was in

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Speaker 1: the ascendancy, and investors and financial authorities were getting involved

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Speaker 1: in climate action. This time around, all of that is

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Speaker 1: going in the opposite direction. It's not just the US.

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Speaker 1: There are other elections around the world where climate hasn't

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Speaker 1: been the top priority or has been a anti climate vote.

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Speaker 1: Same thing with the ESG in the US, there's been

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Speaker 1: political backlash against ESG investing. So the agenda globally has

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Speaker 1: been in a very challenging spot. And so when you

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Speaker 1: think about non federal actors or state actors or local

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Speaker 1: governments or entrepreneurs wanting to take the baton while Trump

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Speaker 1: is not caring about climate, they just have a much

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Speaker 1: harder job, don't they.

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Speaker 2: They do. But there's also a new generation that it's

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Speaker 2: coming into positions of responsibility, a new generation coming in

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Speaker 2: the Wall Street, into Silicon Valley, into nonprofits and businesses,

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Speaker 2: and they care about climate, they care about having purpose

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Speaker 2: in their jobs, they care about their future, their kids' future.

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Speaker 2: And I'm waiting for that next generation to lead. Now.

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Speaker 2: Will Donald Trump set back the climate agenda of the

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Speaker 2: nation in the world for four years? Yes? Is he

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Speaker 2: gonna make it harder? Yes, there's there's no sugarcoating that.

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Speaker 2: But does that mean that the climate movement and the

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Speaker 2: next generations who get it can't still help make progress

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Speaker 2: on this incredibly existential issue. Absolutely not. I think their

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Speaker 2: work must continue and in some ways they will break through,

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Speaker 2: and you also may see a reaction in the polls

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Speaker 2: and with the public against Trump. So right now, Trump's

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Speaker 2: winning on all the immigration issues, but remember when he

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Speaker 2: was in power, Democrats for winning because his policies were

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Speaker 2: so draconian. If he institutes draconian policies that take us

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Speaker 2: backwards with no appreciation of solar and winded batteries, there

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Speaker 2: may become a reassessment in America saying, you know, Trump's

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Speaker 2: gone too far, and it may give Democrats an advantage.

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Speaker 2: These things have a way of being a pendulum, and

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Speaker 2: I don't think that Trump's going into a a neanderous

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Speaker 2: view of climate is going to be sustainable with the

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Speaker 2: American public.

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Speaker 1: Thank you, Representative Connor, thank.

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Speaker 2: You for your leadership and voice.

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Speaker 1: After the break, I speak to Jason Bordof, founding director

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Speaker 1: of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University,

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Speaker 1: about energy and tariffs under Trump. Jason, your job these

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Speaker 1: is to think about energy policy at Columbia University, but

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Speaker 1: before that you were in the Obama administration thinking about energy,

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Speaker 1: climate and national security. So let's get into the meat

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Speaker 1: of it. I've been speaking with Congressman Rocanna, who says

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Speaker 1: that yes, under Trump, they're likely to be some amount

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Speaker 1: of climate action that'll continue, things like tax credit under

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Speaker 1: the Inflation Reduction Act. But unfortunately, he thinks working with

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Speaker 1: Republicans on climate is just going to be very hard.

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Speaker 1: Do you see any common ground?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and look, I do think there are at least

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Speaker 3: some in the Republican Party thinking about climate change, although

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Speaker 3: perhaps not with the same urgency or in the same way.

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Speaker 3: It's also true that the business community is as well.

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Speaker 3: And so take for example, the dramatic increase in electricity

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Speaker 3: demand that we're going to see in the United States

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Speaker 3: because of how energy intensive this historic and transformational new

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Speaker 3: technology of artificial intelligence is, along with potentially electrifying other

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Speaker 3: parts of the economy like vehicles and other things. So

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Speaker 3: in order, this is not a first and foremost about

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Speaker 3: climate change. This is about being competitive in a critically

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Speaker 3: important technology for the twenty perst century AI. The US

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Speaker 3: has a leadership role in that right now, and to

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Speaker 3: maintain that leadership role for US companies like Meta and

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Speaker 3: Microsoft and Google and Amazon, we need to really quickly

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Speaker 3: help them meet their demand for more electricity and do

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Speaker 3: it in a way that hopefully holds the existing set

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Speaker 3: of consumers and businesses in the United States harmless and

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Speaker 3: doesn't spread that cost among everyone because there'll be a

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Speaker 3: backlash otherwise if we do so. If you say remove

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Speaker 3: carbon from the equation, I guess you can just build

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Speaker 3: coal plants or turn them back on old coal plants

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Speaker 3: that are forty years old in this country. I don't

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Speaker 3: think that's going to happen, even hypothetically if a Republican

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Speaker 3: administration wanted to do that. That's not where these companies are.

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Speaker 3: That's not where they see the world going. They know

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Speaker 3: the political pendulum is going to swing in four years

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Speaker 3: or eight years and that's not going to be viable.

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Speaker 3: And they also do value the credibility the position they

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Speaker 3: have as leaders in the energy transition. So will it

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Speaker 3: change how the EPA regulates emissions and is that going

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Speaker 3: to have an impact on how we think about the

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Speaker 3: role of the decline of coal plants or maybe the

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Speaker 3: role of natural gas in this transition. Sure, but these

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Speaker 3: are still renewables are very cheap. You see these companies

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Speaker 3: doing huge deals for nuclear power, and there actually is

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Speaker 3: bipartisan agreement on both sides of the Aisle that nuclear

438
00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:30,359
Speaker 3: is an important technology to move forward on. It's easy,

439
00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:33,080
Speaker 3: It's actually easy to imagine for me that Republicans and

440
00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:35,920
Speaker 3: Democrats might work together to say, what would it look

441
00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:39,040
Speaker 3: like to dramatically shorten the timeframe to get new nuclear

442
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 3: online in this country? Not for some because we need

443
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:45,560
Speaker 3: zero carbon electrons on the grid, and for others because

444
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:48,879
Speaker 3: we need a more electricity to meet the needs of

445
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 3: critical technologies like AI, for which they are national security

446
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:55,359
Speaker 3: and economic reasons. That seems more likely to me than

447
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:59,480
Speaker 3: the idea that we would restart coal in this country

448
00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:02,920
Speaker 3: for or the electricity that AI needs, partly because I'm

449
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:05,399
Speaker 3: not sure the policy environment will go in that direction,

450
00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:07,080
Speaker 3: but also because that's what the that's not what the

451
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:07,880
Speaker 3: firms want to do.

452
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:14,200
Speaker 1: Okay, Now, let's come to the energy equation. The US

453
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 1: producers today fifty percent more oil than Saudi Arabia, and

454
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:23,359
Speaker 1: Trump wants to increase that production with his drill Baby,

455
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:26,920
Speaker 1: drill monthra. So what do you think happens to clean

456
00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:32,480
Speaker 1: energy as a result, Because government has limited bandwidth, even

457
00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:35,720
Speaker 1: as the demand for clean energy may be growing, if

458
00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:39,919
Speaker 1: the focus is on supporting fossil fuels, doesn't clean energy

459
00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:40,840
Speaker 1: just suffer.

460
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 3: I think the risk to the outlook for clean energy

461
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:48,720
Speaker 3: is less from what may be done to purportedly try

462
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:50,840
Speaker 3: to help support domestic oil and gas production, and more

463
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:54,159
Speaker 3: by what happens to policies targeted at supporting clean energy production.

464
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,399
Speaker 3: So if we pull back tax incentives in the IRA,

465
00:27:57,320 --> 00:28:02,560
Speaker 3: if we pull back regulati tory tools and regulation that

466
00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:06,240
Speaker 3: was implemented by the EPA for emissions from power plants

467
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:08,760
Speaker 3: and cars, you know, all of that has the potential

468
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:12,240
Speaker 3: to raise the cost or slow down the pace of deployment.

469
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 3: If we take away tools like the Loan Program Office

470
00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:17,440
Speaker 3: of the Department of Energy, which can lower the cost

471
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:20,840
Speaker 3: of capital to invest in clean energy projects, all of

472
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:23,880
Speaker 3: those would have a more significant impact, I think when

473
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 3: you look at what might be done to unleash, if

474
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:30,840
Speaker 3: that's the right word, oil and gas production in the US,

475
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:33,879
Speaker 3: and as you said, it's been growing for many years

476
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 3: since the show Revolution started, regardless of which party was

477
00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 3: in the White House. You know, there are a couple

478
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,400
Speaker 3: of constraints on that. So one or just market constraints.

479
00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 3: The more you produce, the more prices fall, and there's

480
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:47,840
Speaker 3: a sort of self correcting mechanism that the industry itself applies.

481
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:50,920
Speaker 3: Most of the production growth we've seen in the share

482
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:54,120
Speaker 3: revolution has been on private land, not on public land.

483
00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 3: And the big debates that happen, say in the permitting

484
00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 3: reform bill that is currently being proposed in Washington, you know,

485
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:07,000
Speaker 3: things like that affect the auctions and the leasing for

486
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 3: new areas of the Federal offshore. Well, that may affect

487
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 3: production a decade from now, It doesn't have an effect

488
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:15,959
Speaker 3: production in the near term. So some of the changes

489
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 3: that would be made may have effects further out, less

490
00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:24,160
Speaker 3: so in the near term. But even then, you know,

491
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:27,000
Speaker 3: you can go back and look at a chart with

492
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:30,680
Speaker 3: the acreage put up, the acreage allowed to be bid

493
00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:33,480
Speaker 3: on by the Obama administration, the Trump administration, and the

494
00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 3: Biden administration, and under Trump, you see it goes through

495
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 3: the roof right, much much more of the Federal offshore

496
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:40,280
Speaker 3: was open to the oil and gas industry, and they said,

497
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:42,080
Speaker 3: please bid on this and buy this from us so

498
00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:44,960
Speaker 3: you can produce oil and gas. The amount that was

499
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:49,240
Speaker 3: actually bid by the industry didn't change hugely. It changed

500
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 3: based on market conditions. The amount that is currently being

501
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:56,440
Speaker 3: proposed in the Permitting Reform bill. But there's a lot

502
00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:59,560
Speaker 3: of controversy and disagreement about actually it didn't matter how

503
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:01,840
Speaker 3: much was posed. The amount actually bid on by the

504
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 3: industry has always been less than what the Mansion Barroso

505
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:08,959
Speaker 3: Permitting reform bill would require because market conditions themselves are

506
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:11,560
Speaker 3: a constraint here. And I think I'm not saying it'll

507
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:13,600
Speaker 3: have zero impact, but I think that will probably be

508
00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:16,400
Speaker 3: true here. It is worth remembering that even when George W.

509
00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 3: Bush was in office, you know, he was the one

510
00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:21,520
Speaker 3: who stood up in a State of the Union and said, now,

511
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:23,680
Speaker 3: of course this was before the show Revolution. But even

512
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:25,640
Speaker 3: with the US being the largest producer in the world

513
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:28,280
Speaker 3: fifty percent more than Saudi, as you said, although less

514
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:31,280
Speaker 3: remember Saudi's voluntarily withholding barrels from the market to try

515
00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:32,960
Speaker 3: to get the price up, they could be producing more

516
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:35,600
Speaker 3: and if the market needs that, they will. It's still

517
00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:37,920
Speaker 3: a global market, so regardless of how much we're producing,

518
00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 3: if something happens in the Middle East or anywhere else,

519
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 3: the price of the pump goes up for everyone, regardless

520
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 3: of how much we produce. And the best thing we

521
00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:48,320
Speaker 3: can do to enhance the resilience of our economy to

522
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,200
Speaker 3: inevitable oil price shocks is to use less oil in

523
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 3: the first place. There have Republican administrations have recognized that

524
00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:57,360
Speaker 3: in the past. I don't know if a Trump administration will,

525
00:30:57,400 --> 00:30:58,360
Speaker 3: but it should.

526
00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 1: And it's not just sold production. The US is also

527
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:06,520
Speaker 1: the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas today. What

528
00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:08,280
Speaker 1: do you think happens to the role of gas in

529
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 1: the energy transition as a result of Trump coming to power,

530
00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:15,320
Speaker 1: Do we start talking about gas as a bridge fuel again?

531
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:19,360
Speaker 3: Well, we may start to talk about it that way

532
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:23,840
Speaker 3: that you know, it doesn't mean it's true. But the

533
00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:28,240
Speaker 3: question of what happens to the role of gas globally,

534
00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:31,720
Speaker 3: you know, is viewed differently in emerging and developing economies,

535
00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:34,400
Speaker 3: as you know very well, than it is in developed

536
00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:37,640
Speaker 3: economies like the US and Europe. I suspect a Trump administration,

537
00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 3: based on what it said, would move very quickly to

538
00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:45,720
Speaker 3: remove the temporary ban presumably temporary ban that the Biden

539
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:49,160
Speaker 3: administration had put on the approval of new export permits

540
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 3: to export natural gas from the United States. But again,

541
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:54,280
Speaker 3: kind of the same with oil in terms of the

542
00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 3: market is going to determine a lot of this. There

543
00:31:57,160 --> 00:32:00,200
Speaker 3: is a quite significant question about whether that will have

544
00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:03,600
Speaker 3: any impact at all or much of an impact on

545
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 3: what happens to the global gas market and how much

546
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:10,040
Speaker 3: gas export capacity the US builds. Even with the pause

547
00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:12,440
Speaker 3: that the Biden administration put in place where they said,

548
00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 3: we're not going to give any new permits to export

549
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:16,600
Speaker 3: natural gas until we do some study of the economic

550
00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:21,320
Speaker 3: and environmental implications of that. We were already roughly doubling

551
00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:23,960
Speaker 3: export capacity over the next several years in this country.

552
00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 3: And if you look at the projections in the latest

553
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 3: World Energy Outlook by the IA, they view a world

554
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:30,840
Speaker 3: that by the end of the decade is kind of

555
00:32:30,840 --> 00:32:33,320
Speaker 3: a wash in natural gas. Maybe things tighten up a

556
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:36,520
Speaker 3: decade down the road after that. So the question is

557
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 3: how much more gas does the world really need and

558
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:42,360
Speaker 3: who's going to step up to invest in multi billion

559
00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:45,600
Speaker 3: dollar projects to export more gas? If everybody who wants

560
00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 3: a permit can have a permit, I think you know,

561
00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 3: I'm not saying the answer to that will be zero.

562
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 3: There may be a couple of projects that move forward,

563
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:53,720
Speaker 3: but I don't think it's a huge number, just given

564
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:57,400
Speaker 3: the market reality of what's happening in the world, how

565
00:32:57,480 --> 00:32:59,960
Speaker 3: much gas is coming online, and also the outlook for

566
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:03,800
Speaker 3: gas demand as you see more competition from other fuels,

567
00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 3: including zero carbon fuels.

568
00:33:07,720 --> 00:33:10,680
Speaker 1: Trump has also been pushing tariffs in a big way,

569
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 1: and economists have warned against the kind of broad tariffs

570
00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:18,280
Speaker 1: that he has proposed, but he's dead set on them.

571
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:22,000
Speaker 1: Say you were to advise Trump on tariffs, what kind

572
00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:24,920
Speaker 1: of tariffs would you be okay with? And what would

573
00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:25,920
Speaker 1: you not be okay with?

574
00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think it's notable that a lot

575
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:32,040
Speaker 3: of the analysts and the large banks and such, when

576
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:36,000
Speaker 3: they look at the outlook for oil prices, they had

577
00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:39,959
Speaker 3: projected lower oil prices under a Trump administration, not because

578
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:43,160
Speaker 3: production in the US would be dramatically higher, but because

579
00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:45,480
Speaker 3: of concerns about what the tariff policy would do to

580
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:49,040
Speaker 3: the outlook for US economic growth. And I share a

581
00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:51,800
Speaker 3: concern that very aggressive and across the board use of

582
00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:54,720
Speaker 3: tariffs could be detrimental to the US economy and to

583
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:59,000
Speaker 3: consumers and businesses that they're purportedly aimed to help. I

584
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:03,400
Speaker 3: think it's fair as the Biden administration, as both sides

585
00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:05,760
Speaker 3: of the aisle actually have started to do. As Jake

586
00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:08,680
Speaker 3: Sullivan said at the Brookings Institution a year or two ago,

587
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:12,480
Speaker 3: it is appropriate to rethink some of the assumptions about

588
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:16,640
Speaker 3: global economic integration, whether other countries would play by the rules.

589
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:20,959
Speaker 3: We assumed that they would, China in particular, and maybe

590
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:23,319
Speaker 3: at just course if that's not playing out the way

591
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:26,600
Speaker 3: we thought. And so when you look at tariffs that

592
00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:29,319
Speaker 3: were put in place on imported goods from China like

593
00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:32,320
Speaker 3: electric vehicles and other things, there are actually several rationales

594
00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:35,239
Speaker 3: given for that. One is there's more carbon intensity and

595
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:37,359
Speaker 3: production there, so you can think about a carbon border

596
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:39,560
Speaker 3: adjustment as one tool, and the Europeans are doing that.

597
00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:41,799
Speaker 3: Maybe to work with the Europeans on something like that.

598
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:44,839
Speaker 3: There may be national security considerations we want to think

599
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:48,120
Speaker 3: hard about that. I think they're probably different for advanced

600
00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:51,160
Speaker 3: semiconductors with sensitive military applications than they are for a

601
00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:53,719
Speaker 3: cheap manufactured product like a solar panel. So not all

602
00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:56,520
Speaker 3: clean energy should be thought of the same way, and

603
00:34:56,560 --> 00:34:59,799
Speaker 3: we want leadership. There are economic reasons why we want

604
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:03,800
Speaker 3: industries to be located here. Tariffs, if they're well targeted,

605
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:06,840
Speaker 3: if they're designed carefully, they can play a role in

606
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:11,920
Speaker 3: offsetting some of the unfair practices that where we're not

607
00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 3: on a level playing field with others, particularly in China

608
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:18,080
Speaker 3: and the rules of the WTO. I think both sides

609
00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 3: of the all frankly, have been too quick to dismiss

610
00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:21,880
Speaker 3: and throw out I understand why people are concerned the

611
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:23,880
Speaker 3: WTO is not fit for purpose for how fast the

612
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:26,600
Speaker 3: world is moving anymore. But there is a rules based

613
00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:30,560
Speaker 3: trading system, and it's designed to handle things like unfair

614
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:34,040
Speaker 3: subsidization of certain industries, and we want to not lose

615
00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:35,879
Speaker 3: sight of those tools, even if new tools are probably

616
00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:36,600
Speaker 3: needed as well.

617
00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:39,880
Speaker 1: Thank you Jason, Thanks Ocsha, it's great to talk with you.

618
00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:50,319
Speaker 1: Thank you for listening to Zero. And now for the

619
00:35:50,360 --> 00:36:06,040
Speaker 1: sound of the week, that's the sound of oil drilling.

620
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 1: Expect lots more of it to happen. If you liked

621
00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:11,320
Speaker 1: this episode, please take a moment to rate or review

622
00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:14,440
Speaker 1: the show on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Share this episode

623
00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:17,640
Speaker 1: with a friend or with someone who sold their ESG stocks.

624
00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:20,400
Speaker 1: You can get in touch at zero pod at Bloomberg

625
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 1: dot net. Zero's producer is Mighty le Raw. Bloomberg's head

626
00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:26,239
Speaker 1: of podcast is Sage Bauman and head of Talk is

627
00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:30,440
Speaker 1: Brendan newnan. Our theme music is composed by Wonderly Special

628
00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:34,800
Speaker 1: thanks to Shawan Wagner, Monique Molina Ethan Steinberg, Blake Naples

629
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:38,520
Speaker 1: and Jessica beck I am Akshatrati back soon