WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: January 15th, 2026 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.680 --> 0:00:15.480 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:18.720 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordert. Join us each day 0:00:18.760 --> 0:00:22.280 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.440 --> 0:00:24.880 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.960 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.319 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.960 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:37.120 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. If I came back 0:00:37.159 --> 0:00:38.960 from a year off, never mind a month, and you 0:00:39.000 --> 0:00:41.000 showed me one data point and it was sharpless claims, 0:00:41.040 --> 0:00:42.600 and I looked at that, I'd be like, everything's okay, 0:00:42.640 --> 0:00:45.440 there's nothing wrong here. Labor markets from rock solid. That's 0:00:45.600 --> 0:00:47.479 very very impressive. And to your point, yards up at 0:00:47.479 --> 0:00:49.600 the front end are by three basis points on a 0:00:49.640 --> 0:00:52.080 two year on tens up by two still very very 0:00:52.200 --> 0:00:54.440 range band on a ten year maturity that yield at 0:00:54.440 --> 0:00:57.800 the moment about four fifteen four sixteen. Nila Richardson of 0:00:57.800 --> 0:00:59.840 ADP needs to explain what's going on here. Nil can 0:01:00.160 --> 0:01:02.240 good to see you kid morning, How do you explain 0:01:03.120 --> 0:01:05.400 how we're sitting here word about labor market? If has 0:01:05.480 --> 0:01:07.800 just cut rights by what's seventy five basis points over 0:01:08.160 --> 0:01:10.280 the period of six months or so, and yet we've 0:01:10.280 --> 0:01:11.720 got job as claims at one ninety eight. 0:01:12.080 --> 0:01:14.840 Well I wrote on Tuesday that the labor market is 0:01:14.880 --> 0:01:17.800 tighter than we think, and that's how you explain it. 0:01:18.640 --> 0:01:22.080 What we're seeing is that it's a labor market where 0:01:22.120 --> 0:01:26.280 there's has been said before, little hiring, little layoffs, but 0:01:26.360 --> 0:01:30.119 also pay growth has been robust throughout twenty twenty five. 0:01:30.200 --> 0:01:32.280 And let me tell you what that means. Let me 0:01:32.400 --> 0:01:34.800 unpack that. Because we spend a lot of attention on 0:01:34.840 --> 0:01:37.600 the monthly jobs numbers, we need to spend more attention 0:01:37.800 --> 0:01:40.680 on the wage numbers because they tell the complete story. 0:01:40.840 --> 0:01:43.920 And that story is that workers are largely staying put. 0:01:44.200 --> 0:01:47.240 They have very little desire to rush out and quit 0:01:47.280 --> 0:01:50.400 their jobs, but employers are having to pay them more 0:01:50.720 --> 0:01:53.000 to stay in place. So when you look at the 0:01:53.040 --> 0:01:57.760 wage premium between a job stare and a job changer, 0:01:58.040 --> 0:02:00.840 it is very low. We calculate it. We clock that 0:02:01.280 --> 0:02:04.160 at less than three percent going back over the course 0:02:04.160 --> 0:02:07.080 of the year. But the pay levels. The growth levels 0:02:07.320 --> 0:02:10.720 are high four point four percent for job stairs, six 0:02:10.760 --> 0:02:14.080 point six percent for job changers who are sensitive to 0:02:14.120 --> 0:02:17.880 this labor market. It's taking more pay growth to keep 0:02:17.880 --> 0:02:20.079 a worker, and that's adding to costs. 0:02:20.160 --> 0:02:20.320 Now. 0:02:20.360 --> 0:02:23.200 Typically that's what you say in an expanded economy. Typically 0:02:23.400 --> 0:02:25.680 it's what you say in a very tight labor market. 0:02:26.639 --> 0:02:28.640 I still don't understand why the Fed's counting in that 0:02:28.720 --> 0:02:30.880 kind of environment. What's gone wrong here? What's happened? 0:02:30.960 --> 0:02:35.640 The theme of twenty twenty six is perception versus reality explained. 0:02:35.880 --> 0:02:39.040 When I look across the board at all the economic indicators, 0:02:39.200 --> 0:02:42.600 they are so strong. I mean, wage growth is strong. 0:02:43.040 --> 0:02:46.919 You look at GDP growth is strong, Retail sales is strong. 0:02:47.120 --> 0:02:49.799 The only thing that seems leak to me other than 0:02:49.919 --> 0:02:54.640 these pretty modest job games is consumer sentiment. Why is 0:02:54.840 --> 0:02:58.400 sentiment so sour when everything it looks so great? Even 0:02:58.440 --> 0:03:02.080 our infrastructure graters, the civil Engineers recently put out a 0:03:02.120 --> 0:03:06.240 report that America's infrastructure is getting a solid c engineers 0:03:06.280 --> 0:03:09.079 are the hardest graders in the world. Everyone knows that 0:03:09.400 --> 0:03:13.280 my son is finding it out this year, but they're 0:03:13.320 --> 0:03:17.280 still grading at higher grade levels than they have historically. 0:03:17.360 --> 0:03:20.880 So America looks strong, but sentiment looks bad, and there's 0:03:20.919 --> 0:03:24.000 a reason for that. Perception is different than reality. 0:03:24.080 --> 0:03:26.840 Well, how much is this also that we're talking about 0:03:26.880 --> 0:03:30.440 averages and not necessarily the different tiers of earners. And 0:03:30.520 --> 0:03:32.680 it could be that, say, the top tiers of earners 0:03:32.880 --> 0:03:35.920 are doing really well or seeing their productivity increase, and 0:03:35.960 --> 0:03:38.119 are seeing their pay weight and their wages or take 0:03:38.120 --> 0:03:41.480 home pay increase substantially, and the people at the lower end, 0:03:41.640 --> 0:03:44.560 who are employed in low wage work are not seeing 0:03:44.560 --> 0:03:46.800 those increases and are seeing the inflation that are coming 0:03:46.800 --> 0:03:48.400 on the heels what's happening at the top tier. 0:03:48.480 --> 0:03:52.000 Lisa, you just hit the point right, underscoring that perception 0:03:52.160 --> 0:03:55.200 versus reality. Another way to say that is micro versus macro. 0:03:55.440 --> 0:03:58.000 And when you look at the granularity of job changes, 0:03:58.040 --> 0:04:00.160 what you're seeing is it is not equal work. Where 0:04:00.160 --> 0:04:02.520 we're seeing the highest page growth is not where we're 0:04:02.520 --> 0:04:06.280 seeing the most job growth, and that is key. You're 0:04:06.280 --> 0:04:09.640 seeing high k growth and in trades like construction tied 0:04:09.680 --> 0:04:12.200 to data centers, for example, but you're not seeing a 0:04:12.200 --> 0:04:15.240 lot of job growth there. And there are demographic and 0:04:15.320 --> 0:04:19.000 structural reasons to that. And even if you unpack this 0:04:19.680 --> 0:04:23.119 wage distribution over time, what you're seeing is that low 0:04:23.200 --> 0:04:27.039 income workers are not keeping pace with inflation, and that 0:04:27.160 --> 0:04:30.120 is very different than three years ago when they were 0:04:30.240 --> 0:04:33.599 out pacing in terms of income gains. So, yes, there 0:04:33.680 --> 0:04:36.560 is a lot of action going on underneath the service 0:04:36.680 --> 0:04:40.240 of the macro indicators that point to a widening and 0:04:40.320 --> 0:04:42.839 widening of the top learners in the bottom. 0:04:42.600 --> 0:04:45.400 And just adding to the sentiment that is very reality based, 0:04:45.640 --> 0:04:47.359 which is that people who are making a lot of 0:04:47.360 --> 0:04:49.680 money are also seeing the use case for their jobs 0:04:49.720 --> 0:04:51.840 go down. I'm looking at some of the earnings that 0:04:51.880 --> 0:04:53.960 we saw Bank of America coming out saying that they're 0:04:53.960 --> 0:04:56.280 going to let their head count shrink as they deploy 0:04:56.400 --> 0:04:59.520 more artificial intelligence, City Group saying that they are going 0:04:59.560 --> 0:05:03.080 to over the time use automation and expect automation and 0:05:03.160 --> 0:05:06.359 AI to potentially reduce some of that headcount and also 0:05:06.480 --> 0:05:09.760 just increase efficiency. I mean, how much is that also 0:05:09.880 --> 0:05:11.920 hanging over sentiment in a way that these numbers don't 0:05:11.960 --> 0:05:12.839 pick up, right. 0:05:12.920 --> 0:05:15.680 So that's the structural change that no one saw coming 0:05:16.120 --> 0:05:18.080 maybe four years ago. I shouldn't say no one, but 0:05:18.240 --> 0:05:21.120 very few workers saw coming. And it's now part of 0:05:21.160 --> 0:05:24.719 the conversation. It's part of the hiring strategy in a 0:05:24.760 --> 0:05:28.479 way that hasn't been before, and it's hitting professional, white 0:05:28.480 --> 0:05:31.000 collar jobs which you thought would be immune to this 0:05:31.080 --> 0:05:34.360 kind of stuff, this immune to this kind of automation consideration. 0:05:34.760 --> 0:05:37.880 But AI has changed all that. And so I do 0:05:37.960 --> 0:05:40.400 think that that harkens back to the sentiment and to 0:05:40.440 --> 0:05:43.720 the company long term strategy. But this is a transition 0:05:44.160 --> 0:05:46.880 that's not the end of the story. I think that 0:05:46.960 --> 0:05:50.440 this will be a short lived transition because the productivity 0:05:50.480 --> 0:05:53.359 around AI is so vast that it is yet to 0:05:53.400 --> 0:05:53.960 hit the worker. 0:05:54.320 --> 0:05:57.840 How does the FED think of this moment so challenging. 0:05:58.920 --> 0:06:02.200 I think what they they're very focused on is the 0:06:02.320 --> 0:06:06.599 data point that drives a decision. This is a data 0:06:06.680 --> 0:06:10.760 driven FED. But the problem is the data doesn't stack 0:06:10.880 --> 0:06:13.560 up to the decision in the way that it has 0:06:13.640 --> 0:06:14.680 been in the past. 0:06:15.040 --> 0:06:15.920 The data is. 0:06:15.839 --> 0:06:19.919 Pointing to a pretty strong economy, the data is pointing 0:06:20.040 --> 0:06:23.200 to a pretty low unemployment rate, and the data is 0:06:23.240 --> 0:06:27.480 pointing to a structural, not cyclical change in monthly job gains. 0:06:27.880 --> 0:06:30.400 And so it does put them on the back foot 0:06:30.560 --> 0:06:33.200 when you're trying to interpret data and use that data 0:06:33.200 --> 0:06:34.560 to make a decision. 0:06:35.000 --> 0:06:38.520 Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this 0:06:48.040 --> 0:06:51.119 A Center Washington. President Trump reaching across the alp asking 0:06:51.160 --> 0:06:55.000 Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren to support his efforts to credit 0:06:55.040 --> 0:06:58.120 card interest rates are ten percent after facing opposition from 0:06:58.160 --> 0:07:01.360 his own party. The Republican can Wressman French Hill, Chairman 0:07:01.400 --> 0:07:03.680 of the House Financial Service Committee, join us now from 0:07:03.720 --> 0:07:06.919 Capital Hill to respond to that and a whole lot more. Congressman, 0:07:06.920 --> 0:07:10.280 it's good to see history is littered with examples, full 0:07:10.320 --> 0:07:13.640 of examples that when you introduce price controls, you end 0:07:13.720 --> 0:07:17.040 up with restricted supply. Congressman, is this proposal going to 0:07:17.120 --> 0:07:17.960 end up any differently? 0:07:20.200 --> 0:07:21.280 Have you new year? Jonathan? 0:07:21.360 --> 0:07:24.119 Great to be with you, Congratulations on becoming a dad. 0:07:24.240 --> 0:07:28.760 So happy for you and your family. Look, this proposal 0:07:29.000 --> 0:07:31.840 is a price control, and I think I've heard from 0:07:32.240 --> 0:07:36.040 Republicans and House that they have concerns about it. What 0:07:36.080 --> 0:07:38.320 we are in agreement with President Trump on is that 0:07:38.360 --> 0:07:42.880 we want to reverse the curse of the Biden years 0:07:43.080 --> 0:07:49.560 and taxation, regulatory and government policies. So we want to 0:07:49.600 --> 0:07:53.480 work to pass my twenty first Century Housing Act, which 0:07:53.480 --> 0:07:56.360 would lower home construction costs. We want to pass the 0:07:56.400 --> 0:08:01.360 Main Street Capital Access Act, which would compliance cost and 0:08:01.440 --> 0:08:06.800 refocus the bank regulators on safety and soundness, tailoring regulations 0:08:06.840 --> 0:08:10.120 to bank complexity. And when you think about the regional 0:08:10.160 --> 0:08:13.600 banks you just talked about and the community banks, particularly 0:08:13.600 --> 0:08:17.280 those banks under ten billion dollars, they make sixty percent 0:08:17.320 --> 0:08:19.920 of the one to four family home loans in this country. 0:08:20.200 --> 0:08:22.520 So we believe that with the tax benefits from the 0:08:22.560 --> 0:08:27.960 one Big Beautiful Bill, lowering compliance costs, focusing and tailoring regulations, 0:08:28.840 --> 0:08:33.160 and focusing on dropping the regulatory burdens, and trying to 0:08:33.200 --> 0:08:36.160 build homes in this country, these are bullish signs for 0:08:36.320 --> 0:08:38.360 the GDP for the nation. 0:08:38.440 --> 0:08:39.520 We don't want to do anything. 0:08:39.320 --> 0:08:42.520 That throws off that gross domestic product. And one of 0:08:42.520 --> 0:08:45.640 the things I heard from colleagues is two thirds of 0:08:45.679 --> 0:08:48.560 GDP and the US is consumption. And so if credit 0:08:49.000 --> 0:08:53.040 availability is denied or reduced, that could impact growth for 0:08:53.080 --> 0:08:53.960 twenty twenty six. 0:08:54.000 --> 0:08:56.000 The congressman, do you think they proposal as it stands 0:08:56.000 --> 0:08:58.360 could have a chilling effect on credit? 0:09:00.040 --> 0:09:01.120 Well, I think this is what. 0:09:01.080 --> 0:09:04.280 People that I've heard from in the House Republican Conference 0:09:04.360 --> 0:09:06.680 have said to me, is they think, gosh, this could 0:09:06.679 --> 0:09:11.520 mean that those Americans with lower credit scores had their 0:09:11.559 --> 0:09:17.400 credit curtailed in some way, even by temporary and proposal 0:09:17.600 --> 0:09:21.040 like this. And you know we've campaigned against the government 0:09:21.080 --> 0:09:24.320 price controls in the twenty twenty four election in Kamala 0:09:24.360 --> 0:09:29.240 Harris's efforts to put in nationwide rent control, for example, Congressman. 0:09:29.280 --> 0:09:31.640 Which is why it's so curious the President is getting 0:09:31.640 --> 0:09:33.960 on the phone with the likes of Senator Elizabeth Warren 0:09:34.000 --> 0:09:37.680 and continuously has this tex exchange we've learned through axios 0:09:38.000 --> 0:09:41.800 with Zorammmdani. Do you think he is moving two far 0:09:41.920 --> 0:09:44.480 to the left and almost out of where your party is. 0:09:46.000 --> 0:09:49.240 Well, I just think that Republicans want to work with 0:09:49.320 --> 0:09:52.320 President Trump to accomplish his goal reverse the curse of 0:09:52.360 --> 0:09:58.280 the Biden policies and regulation, taxation, open up the economy. 0:09:58.440 --> 0:10:01.480 Besides our tax policy, the Big Beautiful Bill, I really 0:10:01.520 --> 0:10:05.920 believe that our mainStreet Capital Access Act will make capital 0:10:06.000 --> 0:10:10.400 more available for small businesses all across the nation, produce 0:10:10.480 --> 0:10:14.280 economic growth, particularly in the home building area. Mike Flood's 0:10:14.320 --> 0:10:17.800 twenty first century housing build that we put together lower's 0:10:17.840 --> 0:10:22.360 regulatory costs on building new homes, opens up things like 0:10:22.440 --> 0:10:26.880 the Home Program and the CDBG program to private sector 0:10:27.200 --> 0:10:30.880 partnerships to build more housing. We want more housing available, 0:10:30.920 --> 0:10:33.680 we want better at better prices, and that's the tact 0:10:33.720 --> 0:10:35.760 that we're taking. I think these are the priorities of 0:10:35.800 --> 0:10:36.319 the President. 0:10:36.880 --> 0:10:39.600 Congressman, as the chair of the Financial Services Committee, have 0:10:39.720 --> 0:10:43.280 you spoken to Chair J. Powell since the subpoena was 0:10:43.320 --> 0:10:44.720 delivered to him from the DOJ? 0:10:46.559 --> 0:10:48.800 I have Chairman Powell called and told me that this 0:10:48.880 --> 0:10:50.880 process was taking. 0:10:50.600 --> 0:10:53.520 Place, and does he have plans to come to the 0:10:53.600 --> 0:10:54.600 Hill to testify. 0:10:55.960 --> 0:10:59.440 Well, we've invited the Chairman to testify for his semi 0:10:59.480 --> 0:11:02.319 annual Humphrey Hawkins testimony and we're working out. 0:11:02.120 --> 0:11:02.920 The date now. 0:11:03.440 --> 0:11:05.880 We'll do that typically in coordination both with the FED 0:11:05.920 --> 0:11:07.880 and with the Senate Banking Committee, so that we can 0:11:07.920 --> 0:11:12.359 get the FED chairman up for his semi annual testimony 0:11:12.360 --> 0:11:12.800 on the Hill. 0:11:13.080 --> 0:11:15.520 Congressman, do you agree with the efforts put forward by 0:11:15.520 --> 0:11:20.319 Senator Tillis talking about potentially stiming any of the candidates 0:11:20.640 --> 0:11:23.120 that President Trump is putting forward or will put forward 0:11:23.240 --> 0:11:27.080 for the Federal Reserve until the subpoena is removed or 0:11:27.200 --> 0:11:28.400 this issue is resolved. 0:11:29.880 --> 0:11:32.920 Well, you know, my attitude about this is really simple, 0:11:33.000 --> 0:11:37.000 which is FED independence doesn't mean the Fed's immune from 0:11:37.000 --> 0:11:40.520 criticism or governors at the FED or immune from criticism. 0:11:40.920 --> 0:11:43.960 And if people have questions and concerns about the construction 0:11:44.120 --> 0:11:47.200 project down there about how expensive it is to build 0:11:47.240 --> 0:11:50.000 something in Washington, d C. How expensive it is to 0:11:50.000 --> 0:11:53.680 build something after a forty year high in inflation from 0:11:53.720 --> 0:11:56.720 the FED and fiscal policy mistakes made at the end 0:11:56.760 --> 0:12:00.440 of the pandemic, those are legitimate questions. I try to 0:12:00.520 --> 0:12:06.800 criminalize it and threaten people with a grand jury over disputes. 0:12:06.280 --> 0:12:07.439 About that construction. 0:12:07.840 --> 0:12:11.840 I don't agree with that, and I think the Congress 0:12:11.880 --> 0:12:14.920 can do oversight about the construction project. And I think, 0:12:14.960 --> 0:12:16.760 as I said in my statement, I think this is 0:12:16.760 --> 0:12:20.880 a distraction from our partnership with President Trump in lowering 0:12:21.440 --> 0:12:25.520 cost of living for our citizens through access to increasing 0:12:25.559 --> 0:12:28.400 access to capital, lowering the cost of building a home 0:12:28.440 --> 0:12:32.640 in this country, getting the economy growing along with all 0:12:32.720 --> 0:12:35.880 the improvements, the tremendous improvements we've had for working families 0:12:35.920 --> 0:12:39.240 that we passed in the One Big Beautiful Bill last year. 0:12:39.600 --> 0:12:43.120 Do you think that it's actually illegitimate this particular subpoena. 0:12:44.640 --> 0:12:46.960 Well, I don't know that it's illegitimate. Because I'm not 0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:49.960 at the Justice Department and I'm not the US Attorney 0:12:50.040 --> 0:12:52.559 for the District of Columbia, I'd say it is, in 0:12:52.640 --> 0:12:58.320 my personal opinion, an over reaction to concerns about the 0:12:58.360 --> 0:12:59.560 construction at the FED. 0:13:00.080 --> 0:13:01.520 Don't agree with that approach. 0:13:01.840 --> 0:13:04.200 You've been friends with him for decades. Do you think 0:13:04.200 --> 0:13:06.640 he added to this distraction by coming out with a 0:13:06.720 --> 0:13:09.360 rare video as the markets were opening up an Asia 0:13:09.360 --> 0:13:11.280 instead of just replying to the subpoena. 0:13:13.400 --> 0:13:16.480 Yeah, I think we'll always second guess whenever we make 0:13:16.520 --> 0:13:20.120 a public statement as a public figure. I won't second 0:13:20.240 --> 0:13:23.520 guess the decision that he took about that. 0:13:24.640 --> 0:13:26.920 I'll just let it play out the way it is. 0:13:26.960 --> 0:13:30.800 But I do believe that trying to criminalize that kind 0:13:30.840 --> 0:13:32.439 of behavior, I just don't agree with that. 0:13:32.720 --> 0:13:35.960 How delayed do you think this could make going through 0:13:35.960 --> 0:13:37.520 the process of the next FED chair? 0:13:39.640 --> 0:13:41.280 Well, I think it could throw it off track. 0:13:41.360 --> 0:13:45.360 I think it's a distraction to Treasury Secretary Bessence very 0:13:45.400 --> 0:13:50.040 able partnership with the President to identify a new FED chair, 0:13:50.200 --> 0:13:53.360 something they've worked on for months, and the President has 0:13:53.400 --> 0:13:56.320 had interviews consistently over the last few weeks, and he's 0:13:56.360 --> 0:14:00.800 close to taking a decision and that this decision. Whoever 0:14:00.840 --> 0:14:04.480 made the recommendation to do this, I think was a 0:14:04.520 --> 0:14:07.040 mistake because I think, as I've said, it distracts from 0:14:07.280 --> 0:14:10.960 economic agenda benefiting working families with lower cost and more 0:14:11.520 --> 0:14:15.480 accessibility to capital and housing. And it's a distraction to 0:14:15.720 --> 0:14:20.760 Treasury Secretary Vesset and President Trump's excellent work to identify 0:14:20.760 --> 0:14:23.120 a new leader for the Federal Reserve, something that we 0:14:23.160 --> 0:14:26.520 want and we want clarity on on Capitol Hills. So 0:14:26.880 --> 0:14:29.040 that's why I think whoever made a recommendation like this 0:14:29.240 --> 0:14:29.840 was not wise. 0:14:29.960 --> 0:14:32.400 It hasn't been a distraction from markets, though they pretty 0:14:32.440 --> 0:14:35.160 much shrugged it off. Do you think the markets don't 0:14:35.280 --> 0:14:37.440 view this as real threat to independence? 0:14:39.720 --> 0:14:40.480 That's possible. 0:14:40.920 --> 0:14:43.320 I don't know that it's a threat to independence. I 0:14:43.360 --> 0:14:46.080 think it's a distraction to the work we're trying to 0:14:46.160 --> 0:14:50.280 do here to move the economy forward. To complement the 0:14:50.320 --> 0:14:53.720 big tax changes we made to benefit working families last year, 0:14:53.760 --> 0:14:56.400 we want to do the same thing this year, to 0:14:56.560 --> 0:14:59.320 open up regulatory policy, make it easy, not only just 0:14:59.360 --> 0:15:02.240 to permit the growth of the energy industry in the 0:15:02.280 --> 0:15:05.000 country and the critical minerals. These are goals of the President, 0:15:05.040 --> 0:15:07.840 but we also want to reduce that regulatory burden on 0:15:08.000 --> 0:15:11.600 how's it construction and capital access for the American economy. 0:15:11.920 --> 0:15:15.160 And if we don't have a nominated and confirmed for 0:15:15.280 --> 0:15:17.840 a Reserve chair, that's a distraction to getting that done 0:15:17.840 --> 0:15:19.600 in the right way, and I think it throws the 0:15:19.640 --> 0:15:21.600 President's mission off track. 0:15:21.680 --> 0:15:24.480 That's why I called it a distraction. I'm sticking with it. 0:15:25.520 --> 0:15:38.720 Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this, John, 0:15:38.720 --> 0:15:41.600 I guess not to discuss as Terry Hayes of Pancheepolicy. Terry, 0:15:41.760 --> 0:15:44.240 it goes with us saying that Iran's non Venezuela. The 0:15:44.280 --> 0:15:46.400 population is three times the size. I think the population 0:15:46.480 --> 0:15:48.760 of Tehran is equal to New York City. It has 0:15:48.920 --> 0:15:52.360 very very complicated power structures. How difficult is it going 0:15:52.440 --> 0:15:54.880 to be if the President chooses to intervene. 0:15:56.360 --> 0:15:58.720 It's going to be very difficult, John, and good morning. 0:15:59.480 --> 0:16:02.200 But what you have to look at here is a 0:16:02.280 --> 0:16:06.040 very different geopolitical situation and Iran than in Venezuela. What 0:16:06.080 --> 0:16:08.960 I mean by that is kind of what I think 0:16:09.000 --> 0:16:12.240 of as the concert of nations in the Middle East, 0:16:12.760 --> 0:16:17.200 most of which want not only want a more peaceful region, 0:16:17.720 --> 0:16:21.800 but they want and want Ran marginalized, but they want 0:16:21.840 --> 0:16:25.960 that done without dramatically escalating tensions in the region. 0:16:26.640 --> 0:16:28.000 That's a difficult locked pick. 0:16:28.520 --> 0:16:31.800 But the President needs to bring those folks along, just 0:16:31.840 --> 0:16:35.360 as he has in the Israeli Gaza matter over the 0:16:35.400 --> 0:16:39.240 past few years. And you know, just contrasts that with 0:16:39.280 --> 0:16:41.480 the Venezuelan situation, which is very different. 0:16:41.760 --> 0:16:43.560 Terry, will he have the support of Congress if he 0:16:43.640 --> 0:16:44.760 were to intervene in Iran? 0:16:46.480 --> 0:16:47.640 That's a very good question. 0:16:47.760 --> 0:16:51.040 It's a bit and it's a better question, uh, after 0:16:51.240 --> 0:16:55.960 the after the Venezuelan vote earlier this week. All White 0:16:56.000 --> 0:16:59.000 Houses do things well or badly at any given time. 0:16:59.320 --> 0:17:01.200 One of the things that this White House is doing 0:17:01.240 --> 0:17:05.159 badly right now is bringing Congress along with it on 0:17:05.240 --> 0:17:08.479 a lot of different fronts. And you know, the warning 0:17:08.520 --> 0:17:12.600 shot on Venezuela really is I think a confirmation of 0:17:12.640 --> 0:17:15.280 my view there. You know, they need to do a 0:17:15.320 --> 0:17:21.439 lot more spade work with Iran and geopolitically overall before 0:17:21.480 --> 0:17:24.200 they make a move here to try to either have 0:17:24.280 --> 0:17:27.240 the active support of Congress or of neutralized opposition. 0:17:27.600 --> 0:17:29.640 This is just the second week into twenty twenty six. 0:17:29.680 --> 0:17:32.720 We've already seen the President take action in Venezuela. How 0:17:32.720 --> 0:17:35.879 does he convey these moves to the American public in 0:17:35.880 --> 0:17:38.320 a midterm election year. How does he go out and 0:17:38.359 --> 0:17:40.560 say this is part of quote America. 0:17:40.640 --> 0:17:44.480 First, well, he should and you know, and then the 0:17:44.520 --> 0:17:49.040 easiest messaging there is something along the lines of, you know, 0:17:49.119 --> 0:17:52.959 the you know, we're keeping national securities, economic security, we're 0:17:53.000 --> 0:17:56.080 trying to keep America safe abroad in order to make 0:17:56.119 --> 0:18:00.480 America safer at home, that sort of thing. And but 0:18:00.640 --> 0:18:04.040 beyond that, you know, he needs he needs to get 0:18:04.240 --> 0:18:07.720 much more contextual with the American public and start really 0:18:07.760 --> 0:18:11.040 explaining the stakes of a lot of things a lot more. 0:18:11.280 --> 0:18:14.920 He's got a lot of division in his coalition right now. 0:18:15.600 --> 0:18:18.480 I wouldn't say a lot of them are actively opposing him, 0:18:18.520 --> 0:18:21.080 but there's a lot of people who have colder feet 0:18:21.080 --> 0:18:23.080 than they did a few months ago. He's going to 0:18:23.119 --> 0:18:26.640 need to warm that up. The same, of course, exists 0:18:26.680 --> 0:18:29.440 with domestic policy, but he's really going to need to 0:18:30.320 --> 0:18:34.480 start having people understand what the stakes are of his 0:18:34.720 --> 0:18:37.359 part of his base gets that, part of it doesn't terry. 0:18:37.480 --> 0:18:40.000 What the stakes are includes who the friends are and 0:18:40.040 --> 0:18:43.240 who the enemies are. Do you think that it's clear 0:18:43.760 --> 0:18:47.680 which international allies have the loudest voice when it comes 0:18:47.720 --> 0:18:49.680 to talking with the President right now. 0:18:51.000 --> 0:18:51.800 Do I think it's clear? 0:18:51.880 --> 0:18:51.920 No. 0:18:52.119 --> 0:18:54.320 I think there's there's an awful lot of folks who 0:18:54.359 --> 0:18:58.439 are who are jockeying for attention, and you know, just 0:18:58.480 --> 0:19:00.679 some extent, that's the way the president likes it. I mean, 0:19:00.720 --> 0:19:05.840 if you've got people swirling around you, kind of spoken 0:19:05.920 --> 0:19:10.920 wheel style, it increases your freedom of maneuver, and that 0:19:11.240 --> 0:19:13.760 fundamentally is what Trump wants. He doesn't want just the 0:19:13.800 --> 0:19:17.240 ability to act. The ability to act implies the freedom 0:19:17.280 --> 0:19:20.600 to maneuver. So a lot of his strategic ambiguity, as 0:19:20.640 --> 0:19:25.399 Tyler put it, is designed to achieve exactly that. So, 0:19:25.640 --> 0:19:28.480 you know, the more he's got competition for his ear, 0:19:29.080 --> 0:19:32.560 and the more he's got competition for potential geopolitical goals. 0:19:32.880 --> 0:19:34.040 I think that bit frankly, the. 0:19:33.960 --> 0:19:36.639 Better he likes it, that makes it more difficult to 0:19:36.640 --> 0:19:42.280 translate into into clarity for the American public. But that's 0:19:42.320 --> 0:19:44.439 a chance he's willing to take right now, judging by 0:19:44.720 --> 0:19:45.520 how he operates. 0:19:45.760 --> 0:19:47.640 Terry, something we've been talking about over the past couple 0:19:47.680 --> 0:19:49.560 of weeks, and i'd love your thoughts on that. How 0:19:49.560 --> 0:19:52.560 do you understand sort of the flurry of different orders 0:19:52.600 --> 0:19:56.320 coming out of the White House, the different folk focuses, 0:19:56.480 --> 0:20:00.240 whether it's geopolitical or whether it's domestic. That to be 0:20:00.240 --> 0:20:04.000 whip sawing markets and whipsawing Capital Hill. 0:20:04.119 --> 0:20:06.200 Well, I think he I think what. 0:20:06.080 --> 0:20:10.440 Markets see is a lot of different a lot of 0:20:10.480 --> 0:20:13.000 different smoke being thrown up for a lot of different reasons. 0:20:13.040 --> 0:20:16.879 I mean, there's the strategic ambiguity on Iran we've already 0:20:16.920 --> 0:20:20.240 talked about, for example, same thing applies on a lot 0:20:20.280 --> 0:20:21.840 of domestic things. 0:20:22.520 --> 0:20:22.680 You know. 0:20:22.720 --> 0:20:26.520 The credit card matter is a perfect example of this. 0:20:26.600 --> 0:20:29.480 I feel like I've been talking about swipe fees literally forever. 0:20:29.560 --> 0:20:31.200 I think the first time it came up was twenty 0:20:31.280 --> 0:20:36.280 years ago. But a lot of that's being put up, frankly, 0:20:36.520 --> 0:20:39.879 as part of the affordability pitch to appeal to his 0:20:40.440 --> 0:20:43.600 independent base, the one that helped him get elected in 0:20:43.640 --> 0:20:46.440 twenty twenty four. I'm not pooh poohing this by saying 0:20:46.480 --> 0:20:49.840 it's just about politics. Trump Trump has a history of 0:20:49.880 --> 0:20:53.840 following through, but people need to understand that. You know, 0:20:54.160 --> 0:20:57.200 he's going to do everything he can do to goose 0:20:57.240 --> 0:21:02.879 his own coalition to keep Republicans in the majority in 0:21:02.920 --> 0:21:05.879 the House in the Senate next year. Part of that 0:21:06.080 --> 0:21:09.720 is making sure that he's flooding the zone and we're 0:21:09.920 --> 0:21:12.920 kind of even stealing ideas from the other side and 0:21:13.000 --> 0:21:18.080 kind of relegating that to niche stuff, whereas everything else 0:21:18.119 --> 0:21:20.520 sought to be about him and ought to be about 0:21:20.600 --> 0:21:22.760 goosing his vote. I hope that helps. 0:21:23.320 --> 0:21:26.880 This is the Bloomberg SURVANAHS podcast, bringing you the best 0:21:26.920 --> 0:21:30.000 in markets, economics, an gio politics. You can watch the 0:21:30.000 --> 0:21:32.960 show live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from six am 0:21:33.160 --> 0:21:36.320 to nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, 0:21:36.600 --> 0:21:39.439 Spotify or anywhere else you listen, and as always, on 0:21:39.480 --> 0:21:41.960 the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.