WEBVTT - Surveillance: Johnson & Trump Dissimilar, Diamond Says 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.800 Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jay Ley. 0:00:13.960 --> 0:00:16.960 We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, 0:00:17.040 --> 0:00:23.480 investment and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:30.560 Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg Simon 0:00:30.640 --> 0:00:34.000 Kennedy are cricket expert. Here in our studios, Queen Victoria 0:00:34.080 --> 0:00:36.559 Street in charge of all economic government. I don't know 0:00:36.560 --> 0:00:40.200 what Simon does Brexit and anyways, Mr Kennedy said Trent 0:00:40.400 --> 0:00:43.160 Bridge in nodding, I don't know. I can't keep track. 0:00:43.640 --> 0:00:47.000 It's like the prime ministers. Who knows? Notdingham Shire? Is 0:00:47.000 --> 0:00:50.720 that what you call it? Nothingham? Okay, Nottingham That was 0:00:50.760 --> 0:00:53.920 like his childhood home. So for him it's as big 0:00:53.960 --> 0:00:56.680 as it's as big as Lords. But John, I didn't 0:00:56.680 --> 0:01:01.200 know this. Lord sees twenty eight thousand. Well it's cricket. 0:01:01.240 --> 0:01:04.399 It's very cool there and it sells out. And that's 0:01:04.400 --> 0:01:08.280 the voice of David Merritt. Go to cricket, I do, 0:01:08.319 --> 0:01:10.279 go to cricket. I've got my tickets for the summer. 0:01:10.280 --> 0:01:12.280 We've got the World Cup has just started here. Can 0:01:12.280 --> 0:01:14.440 you explaine him, David that it's a good day out 0:01:14.480 --> 0:01:17.600 of drinking. It's an excellent day out. There's a bit 0:01:17.600 --> 0:01:22.040 of sport in the background. There's Pakistan in England and 0:01:22.160 --> 0:01:25.560 people are like totally focused on this. Oh yeah, it's 0:01:25.560 --> 0:01:28.000 a big thing. It's a big thing. I'll take you 0:01:28.000 --> 0:01:29.520 to the game. How long you here for? There's some 0:01:30.840 --> 0:01:32.679 I have to go see the charts, don't I know 0:01:32.800 --> 0:01:39.720 that season's ended. Spurs done for the sleeping until everybody 0:01:39.840 --> 0:01:43.880 on a coast to coast in America's thank god, Premier 0:01:43.959 --> 0:01:45.880 League is done. I think there's a South American Cup 0:01:45.880 --> 0:01:48.160 that we can discuss, though, to fill in the boordom 0:01:48.320 --> 0:01:50.240 over the next coup, we have two esteemed guests here 0:01:50.240 --> 0:01:52.320 with a date calendar to a press company. We do 0:01:52.400 --> 0:01:55.440 Jenny Lennard joining a swell Bloomberg trade reporter David help 0:01:55.560 --> 0:01:58.040 us set us up in about what an hour from now, 0:01:58.240 --> 0:02:01.280 a joint news conference. I have no idea what it's about. 0:02:01.280 --> 0:02:03.160 What is it about? Well, it's going to be about everything. 0:02:03.320 --> 0:02:05.560 I suspect, you know, this is this the last time 0:02:05.600 --> 0:02:07.640 that's happened. Last time the president came, it went on 0:02:07.720 --> 0:02:09.800 for I think much longer than an hour. He takes 0:02:09.880 --> 0:02:12.919 questions from everybody. He has rather long answers, and there's 0:02:12.960 --> 0:02:16.440 a lot to cover here. We have Brexit obviously lurking 0:02:16.440 --> 0:02:18.839 in the background. We have the question, a big question 0:02:18.919 --> 0:02:21.320 about the US trade deal what that might look like. 0:02:21.440 --> 0:02:23.959 Lots of controversial comments from the American side. The last 0:02:23.960 --> 0:02:26.360 couple of days, Mrs May is gonna be asked about that. 0:02:26.600 --> 0:02:30.000 We've got questions about Iran, questions about Europe, and of 0:02:30.040 --> 0:02:33.760 course the big one who is Mrs May's successor going 0:02:33.800 --> 0:02:37.360 to be Um? He is not shy about wading into 0:02:37.400 --> 0:02:40.200 that debate, and you can bet your going to be 0:02:40.360 --> 0:02:44.280 really awkward. I agree, Jenny, this as important as you 0:02:44.320 --> 0:02:47.840 work out of Washington, and of course the expertise is trade. 0:02:48.320 --> 0:02:50.959 How would you suggest a president or response you after 0:02:51.000 --> 0:02:54.400 the pump and circumstance of forty eight hours when somebody 0:02:54.400 --> 0:02:57.680 goes something about Mueller or bar or name the other 0:02:57.760 --> 0:03:02.680 scandal of your Washington, How does responned well? Trade for 0:03:02.880 --> 0:03:06.360 President Trump is always sort of a pivot away from 0:03:06.480 --> 0:03:10.880 domestic politics. Are ugly? Yeah, somebody brings up Mexico and 0:03:11.080 --> 0:03:13.600 immigration in the border wall. Is he going to be 0:03:13.639 --> 0:03:17.200 offended that these questions are being asked in England? I 0:03:17.440 --> 0:03:21.080 don't know that he will be defensive about it. I 0:03:21.080 --> 0:03:24.960 think he's actually about the Mexico border wall and his 0:03:25.360 --> 0:03:28.320 latest announcement of tariffs coming on Mexico. I think he's 0:03:28.360 --> 0:03:30.919 happy to talk about that. I think he's pretty confident 0:03:30.960 --> 0:03:34.400 that that will, you know, solve the problem that you know, 0:03:34.480 --> 0:03:36.760 no one in Congress is going to throw a wrench 0:03:36.840 --> 0:03:40.200 in that. And and I'm sure who would be happy 0:03:40.240 --> 0:03:42.360 to ask answer all kinds of questions. It's difficult to 0:03:42.360 --> 0:03:45.320 find a topic that both individuals can speak to that 0:03:45.440 --> 0:03:47.480 just seems to be a bunch of separate, different things 0:03:47.520 --> 0:03:49.000 going on that you want to one ask Prime Minister 0:03:49.040 --> 0:03:50.760 make and that you would like to ask the President 0:03:50.760 --> 0:03:53.360 of the United States. One thing of a couple of 0:03:53.360 --> 0:03:56.080 things that I think both can speak to is Shuawei David, 0:03:56.520 --> 0:03:58.120 and I just wonder to what degree that has been 0:03:58.160 --> 0:04:00.240 discussed in the last twenty four hounds. Yeah, well this 0:04:00.280 --> 0:04:02.080 is this is definitely on the agenda when the two 0:04:02.280 --> 0:04:04.920 met in Danning Street earlier today. And again, of course 0:04:04.960 --> 0:04:07.520 it's something else that they both disagree on. Mr Trump's 0:04:07.560 --> 0:04:10.200 trying to ladle on the pressure for Britain to change 0:04:10.200 --> 0:04:13.960 its mind and to join with them in restricting Hawawei 0:04:14.040 --> 0:04:16.679 completely from building the five G networks. So far Britain 0:04:16.960 --> 0:04:19.400 has said it's it needs Huawei, it needs this to 0:04:19.440 --> 0:04:22.440 do it in a in a cost effective measure. Um 0:04:22.520 --> 0:04:24.520 that is she going to crumble? Is she going to say? Well, 0:04:24.520 --> 0:04:26.840 in fact, the Americans have helped just change her. Then 0:04:26.880 --> 0:04:30.080 twisting there and dug what what what are the ramifications 0:04:30.120 --> 0:04:33.360 if she crumbles or doesn't crumble? Well, the big arm 0:04:33.360 --> 0:04:37.400 twisting is around the sharing of intelligence Britain and America. 0:04:37.880 --> 0:04:41.359 Britain particularly prides itself on being having this special access 0:04:41.640 --> 0:04:44.760 to American intelligence and that has been one has been 0:04:44.800 --> 0:04:47.800 put at threat in the last few weeks. They've said, well, look, 0:04:47.839 --> 0:04:49.800 if you're going to insist on having your networks done 0:04:49.800 --> 0:04:51.480 by Huawei, we're not gonna be able to send you 0:04:51.680 --> 0:04:54.720 all of our intelligence. Johnian Leonard the Bucking Impels yesterday, 0:04:54.760 --> 0:04:57.400 along with Secretary Molution taking a video of it off 0:04:57.400 --> 0:05:00.440 as iPhone, were the worthies of the Trump at wustration 0:05:00.520 --> 0:05:02.960 lined up. And there was Steven Miller who was on 0:05:03.000 --> 0:05:05.560 the trip and he's part of the border wall in 0:05:05.680 --> 0:05:09.520 immigration debate. How does he fit in to the trip 0:05:09.680 --> 0:05:12.320 and how does he fit in to the linkage to 0:05:12.400 --> 0:05:16.880 trade with Mexico. Good question that the trip, it's you 0:05:17.000 --> 0:05:20.920 got it gets a good question. The trumpet wise advisors 0:05:20.960 --> 0:05:22.960 that came on the trip kind of do not fit 0:05:23.000 --> 0:05:25.200 in its minutent. And his wife here but you know 0:05:25.360 --> 0:05:27.240 they're talking about trade in the U. S. Trade rep 0:05:27.279 --> 0:05:31.960 isn't coming, so you know, is not here. He's not here, 0:05:32.240 --> 0:05:34.160 He's not part of the trip, which I think the 0:05:34.160 --> 0:05:37.360 constellation of people is a little bit interesting. Stephen Miller 0:05:37.520 --> 0:05:41.320 is of course, one of the architects of Trump's immigration policy. 0:05:41.839 --> 0:05:45.560 UH to Wawwei. I think one interesting thing is that 0:05:45.640 --> 0:05:48.720 Trump himself isn't really consistent when he talks about Wawei, 0:05:48.800 --> 0:05:51.080 right well, I mean we heard him. We heard him 0:05:51.120 --> 0:05:54.680 say before he left for Japan a couple of weeks ago, 0:05:54.800 --> 0:05:58.000 you know, Wawe is a really big intelligence risk. Our 0:05:58.120 --> 0:06:00.599 national security folks are really were read about it. And 0:06:00.600 --> 0:06:03.239 in the next sentence he says, well, maybe we wrap 0:06:03.279 --> 0:06:05.960 this into a trade deal, which makes his advisors, his 0:06:06.080 --> 0:06:09.719 national security advisors, really uncomfortable because they don't want to 0:06:10.000 --> 0:06:11.719 want this to be, you know, kind of part of 0:06:11.720 --> 0:06:14.520 a trade discussion that could be traded away because they 0:06:14.560 --> 0:06:19.159 want actually to focus on uh you know, convincing allies 0:06:19.200 --> 0:06:22.000 like the UK to go through with banning Hua Awei 0:06:22.000 --> 0:06:24.600 from from this. So we'll see if Trump gets asked 0:06:24.600 --> 0:06:27.120 about it, if he has a consistent message here, uh, 0:06:27.160 --> 0:06:30.600 and then and then we'll see what Primeister may have. Jenny, 0:06:30.600 --> 0:06:33.880 certainly at home, no problem convincing both Democrats and Republicans 0:06:33.880 --> 0:06:36.440 of the push around China and Huaweifi that matter. When 0:06:36.480 --> 0:06:39.920 it comes to Mexico a very different story. Interesting development overnight, 0:06:40.000 --> 0:06:43.400 some great reporting from the team in Washington, Jenny that 0:06:43.480 --> 0:06:46.480 maybe Senate Republicans are looking to push back against this effort. 0:06:46.800 --> 0:06:49.520 How can they formalize that? What can they do so 0:06:49.600 --> 0:06:53.560 they could pass a resolution of disapproval, which you have 0:06:53.680 --> 0:06:56.719 to overcome a mutual proof majority, which we've seen in 0:06:56.760 --> 0:06:58.880 the past when they have tried to do that. That's 0:06:58.880 --> 0:07:02.160 actually more difficult then you think. And I would note 0:07:02.600 --> 0:07:05.720 to anyone who you know is looking at this with 0:07:05.839 --> 0:07:09.240 maybe some optimism that Congress could stop Trump on his 0:07:09.320 --> 0:07:12.360 trade agenda, don't hold your breath. We've seen this before 0:07:13.000 --> 0:07:17.240 on national security tariffs, steal aluminum with autos. We've seen 0:07:17.360 --> 0:07:19.880 kind of a momentum even from his own party saying 0:07:20.000 --> 0:07:22.880 this might be a step too far. I don't know 0:07:22.920 --> 0:07:25.280 if they can actually swing this one. And now one 0:07:25.360 --> 0:07:29.080 final question, fair when I counting the minutes of no Brexit, 0:07:29.560 --> 0:07:33.840 no leave, are you bringing question David? I have to Okay, 0:07:33.960 --> 0:07:37.600 there's the headline the President maybe we'll meet with Mr Gove. 0:07:38.280 --> 0:07:42.080 What level of Brexit is Mr Gov And does the 0:07:42.160 --> 0:07:45.400 President greet him as a brexit here like the others. Well, 0:07:45.400 --> 0:07:48.920 he suddenly was one of the architects of the Brexit campaign. 0:07:48.960 --> 0:07:51.840 But if you look at the spectrum now, or that 0:07:51.880 --> 0:07:57.120 the Brexit rainbow, if you like, the Tory hits somewhere 0:07:57.120 --> 0:07:59.160 in the middle. Actually, you know he's not actually going 0:07:59.160 --> 0:08:02.840 out and advocates we storm out with no deal come 0:08:02.880 --> 0:08:05.280 what may, which is what Mr Johnson and Mr rob 0:08:05.600 --> 0:08:08.360 are saying. He was the one who stuck by Mrs 0:08:08.400 --> 0:08:11.800 Maid through second thin. He voted for her deal. Remember 0:08:11.840 --> 0:08:16.520 he didn't leave the cabinet saying this is a subject 0:08:16.560 --> 0:08:19.480 in Britain to European laws forever. So here's a loyalist 0:08:19.760 --> 0:08:22.240 to the Prime minister. He is more of a Centrists. 0:08:22.400 --> 0:08:24.920 He says we should find a middle way. And it's 0:08:25.040 --> 0:08:27.200 very interesting that Mr Trump has chosen to use his 0:08:27.240 --> 0:08:30.080 spare time this afteron to meet with him rather than 0:08:30.440 --> 0:08:33.440 with Mr Johnson, as was suggesting very kind to Mr 0:08:33.640 --> 0:08:40.439 of describing him as a loyalist. Well, okay, strategically known 0:08:40.480 --> 0:08:45.400 as Macbeth. But he has I think it's undeniable, you know, 0:08:45.920 --> 0:08:49.439 he was. He was the heaviest way to actually stick 0:08:49.480 --> 0:08:52.280 with Mrs Mayor throughout this. Now you can you can 0:08:52.360 --> 0:08:54.400 question his motives for that? Is it because he was 0:08:54.480 --> 0:08:57.080 lining himself up for where he is now for the job. 0:08:57.160 --> 0:09:01.680 Possibly David the windsor lamb snap? Is that like lambs 0:09:01.679 --> 0:09:03.839 that they kill off the hills of the winter. I 0:09:03.840 --> 0:09:06.040 don't think they go out and shoot them themselves like 0:09:06.120 --> 0:09:09.240 they do the deer. Perhaps in the pheasant I think 0:09:09.280 --> 0:09:11.000 they're probably sent to the Abbotts Fare, but I guess 0:09:11.040 --> 0:09:12.800 they must be. They're a sheep and I walk my 0:09:12.840 --> 0:09:14.840 dog and wins a great park sometimes that the weekend, 0:09:14.880 --> 0:09:18.360 and there are definitely you know, dotted sheep. You should 0:09:18.400 --> 0:09:21.160 get over to. Winter is beautiful. I can't compete with this, 0:09:21.280 --> 0:09:23.600 me and Vette mill for making it out of the 0:09:23.960 --> 0:09:28.200 circle park and we're lucky to the baseball. You do 0:09:28.280 --> 0:09:30.480 what with your dog? Well it's not far, you know, 0:09:30.600 --> 0:09:32.760 my my son goes to schooler there, so I I 0:09:33.240 --> 0:09:36.400 walk my dog And how do you say it's like 0:09:36.520 --> 0:09:42.920 nasty Bush. I don't think. I don't think says nasty. 0:09:43.480 --> 0:09:45.400 You get all sorts of around wins. And I'm telling you, 0:09:45.679 --> 0:09:48.200 David Merrick, we're saying thank you to David, were saying 0:09:48.240 --> 0:09:51.600 thank you to Jenny, and we're going from London for 0:09:51.640 --> 0:09:56.640 our audience worldwide this Unfortunately today it's still Bloomberg surveillance. 0:10:11.760 --> 0:10:14.439 Let's bringing mind Ryan Shower you bus Americans see I oh, 0:10:14.520 --> 0:10:16.439 he joins us on this program. Great to catch up with. 0:10:16.480 --> 0:10:18.319 You might walk us through the essence of the research 0:10:18.360 --> 0:10:20.800 that you guys have put out. Well, good more and Jonathan, 0:10:20.800 --> 0:10:22.560 thank you. Well. First of all we try to do 0:10:22.600 --> 0:10:24.839 is we tried to lay the framework out for what's 0:10:24.880 --> 0:10:28.319 likely to be a pretty certainly entertaining but also informative 0:10:28.640 --> 0:10:30.520 series of debates that are going to happen between the 0:10:30.559 --> 0:10:33.319 Democratic candidates, but also begin to set our sitelines a 0:10:33.360 --> 0:10:35.920 little further afield. Obviously, the election is going to have 0:10:35.960 --> 0:10:38.920 huge implications not only in terms of who is a 0:10:38.960 --> 0:10:41.320 resident of the White House, but also the composition of Congress. 0:10:41.920 --> 0:10:43.600 Before we get there, though, we need to talk about 0:10:43.600 --> 0:10:45.360 what the major issues are going to be focused on. 0:10:45.600 --> 0:10:46.960 So one of the things we did in that report 0:10:47.000 --> 0:10:50.120 was we highlighted a number of focus issues they we're 0:10:50.120 --> 0:10:52.840 gonna be writing follow up reports on over the course 0:10:52.920 --> 0:10:55.600 of between now and the election. These includes in issues 0:10:55.760 --> 0:10:59.560 ranging from a regulatory environment, to tax issues, to health care, 0:10:59.600 --> 0:11:02.920 to and for structure immigration policies. These are things that 0:11:02.960 --> 0:11:05.160 are critical not only to voters, but certainly two investors 0:11:05.200 --> 0:11:08.960 as well. Looking at the situation, going into something a 0:11:08.960 --> 0:11:12.440 lot of people got very very wrong was framing the 0:11:12.520 --> 0:11:15.480 president of the United States now President Donald Trump as 0:11:15.520 --> 0:11:18.360 the risk off candidate, the high vul risk golf candidate 0:11:18.400 --> 0:11:20.720 Mike And what we found out subsequently is he was 0:11:20.720 --> 0:11:23.439 anything but for much of the first year. How are 0:11:23.440 --> 0:11:26.560 we framing the two parties from a market perspective just 0:11:26.600 --> 0:11:29.200 in terms that he invest the bias? Right now, what 0:11:29.440 --> 0:11:32.800 is it around these two parties? Well, I do think 0:11:32.800 --> 0:11:35.360 when you when you think about the potential candidates, and 0:11:35.360 --> 0:11:38.640 obviously it's it's very very early start handicapping who could 0:11:38.840 --> 0:11:42.079 emerge from the Democratic field as the as the ultimate nominee. 0:11:42.320 --> 0:11:44.640 But as we think about this um, this field where 0:11:44.640 --> 0:11:47.040 we're gonna be focused on now is where the policy 0:11:47.320 --> 0:11:49.800 pass start to lead. Obviously, one of the things we 0:11:49.840 --> 0:11:53.760 saw from the election of Donald Trump was a focus 0:11:53.800 --> 0:11:56.320 on several things. One was on regulatory reform and others 0:11:56.360 --> 0:11:59.400 on tax relief, which were very market friendly the concerns. 0:11:59.440 --> 0:12:02.240 Of course, whoever emerged from the Democratic field could take 0:12:02.240 --> 0:12:04.439 a very very different posture on both of those. That 0:12:04.520 --> 0:12:07.320 could be talking about increasing taxes in the way of 0:12:07.559 --> 0:12:10.880 closing the duct the budget deficit, but also of reimposing 0:12:10.920 --> 0:12:13.200 some of the regulations that have been put in place 0:12:13.240 --> 0:12:16.280 during the Obama administration. Mike, what's fascinating to me, And 0:12:16.400 --> 0:12:18.600 this is the last couple of days, I've seen articles 0:12:18.600 --> 0:12:23.120 that clearly show there's no policy traction yet among the 0:12:23.160 --> 0:12:25.960 many Democratic candidates, people learned focused on it, which I 0:12:26.360 --> 0:12:29.360 you know, I guess I understand. I guess we learned 0:12:29.400 --> 0:12:32.920 healthcare mattered in the mid terms. Do we get to 0:12:33.040 --> 0:12:37.720 the first or the fourth or debate in healthcare just 0:12:38.480 --> 0:12:41.840 becomes the topic as we saw in the mid terms, 0:12:42.720 --> 0:12:44.400 It certainly could be time. I think it's gonna be. 0:12:44.600 --> 0:12:46.640 First of all, as as you as you mentioned, it's 0:12:46.640 --> 0:12:50.680 it's really early to story handicapping exactly how the policy 0:12:50.720 --> 0:12:53.200 path will map out and also who will emerge as 0:12:53.240 --> 0:12:56.560 the primary candidates. However, when you look across the field, 0:12:56.800 --> 0:12:59.720 what you do see as some commonality, healthcare is one 0:12:59.760 --> 0:13:02.680 of the that emerges from almost all of the potential 0:13:02.720 --> 0:13:05.400 candidates from the Democratic side. So there's no question that 0:13:05.520 --> 0:13:10.720 over the course of debates and going into the party convention, 0:13:11.120 --> 0:13:13.120 healthcare is going to emerge. Is one of the critical 0:13:13.120 --> 0:13:16.480 issues for the Democrats. Listening to some investors out there, 0:13:16.480 --> 0:13:19.079 I always think that some investors receive more attention that 0:13:19.160 --> 0:13:22.280 maybe they deserve. Stan Drumla is not one of those investors. 0:13:22.320 --> 0:13:25.040 He spoke yesterday evening and said the following when the 0:13:25.080 --> 0:13:27.480 Trump tweet went out. He's referring to the Trump tweet 0:13:27.720 --> 0:13:30.200 on China. A number of weeks ago, I went from 0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:34.480 invested to net flat and bought a bunch of treasuries. 0:13:34.520 --> 0:13:36.640 Not because I'm trying to make money. I just don't 0:13:36.679 --> 0:13:39.880 want to play in this environment. Talk to me about 0:13:39.920 --> 0:13:43.120 this environment right now and whether you can play in 0:13:43.120 --> 0:13:47.040 this environment. Well, we want to be really careful about it. 0:13:47.160 --> 0:13:50.240 Is not to play two tactically against trade. You know, 0:13:50.400 --> 0:13:52.760 our our view as we want to maintain a relatively 0:13:52.760 --> 0:13:55.640 balanced portfolio or ultimate view is that we do think 0:13:55.720 --> 0:13:58.240 a pathway will be found for a framework and an 0:13:58.240 --> 0:14:00.920 agreement between the US and China. But remember John, this 0:14:01.000 --> 0:14:02.959 is the the issues that the U. S And China 0:14:03.000 --> 0:14:05.720 are contending with have been decades in the making. The 0:14:05.760 --> 0:14:07.640 notion that we're gonna solve this in in six or 0:14:07.679 --> 0:14:09.800 twelve or eighteen months, or that we're gonna come to 0:14:09.840 --> 0:14:12.480 this comprehensive agreement that the two parties signed have a 0:14:12.559 --> 0:14:15.320 big signing ceremony, I think it's all native. Instead, I 0:14:15.320 --> 0:14:17.840 think you'll see is they will be First of all, 0:14:18.040 --> 0:14:20.160 we do expect to see some more back and forth 0:14:20.160 --> 0:14:22.360 between the U. S and China, but ultimately it's it's 0:14:22.400 --> 0:14:24.640 in both parties interests to come to some sort of 0:14:24.680 --> 0:14:28.480 framework that allows for the following the eventual easing of tariffs, 0:14:28.480 --> 0:14:31.000 but it has to come with verification. But you mentioned 0:14:31.040 --> 0:14:33.840 the key item, and we've heard this in London in 0:14:33.920 --> 0:14:39.800 different conversations in both parties interests is a rational statement. 0:14:40.480 --> 0:14:45.840 Have we seen rationality in these trade debates? You can 0:14:45.960 --> 0:14:48.360 argue there has been rationality because so forth it's has 0:14:48.400 --> 0:14:50.760 been about how you posture and how you try and 0:14:50.760 --> 0:14:53.880 gain tech for advantages. Nothing there's nothing irrational about that. 0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:55.920 What it is irrational is if you take it to 0:14:56.360 --> 0:14:59.000 its endgame, where you see both parties back in the 0:14:59.080 --> 0:15:02.800 corns into a corner. But I'm looking at West Texas Intermediate, 0:15:03.120 --> 0:15:06.440 which John I haven't really brought up in weeks, and 0:15:06.840 --> 0:15:11.800 I've got an exceptionally elegant shirt from sixty three straight 0:15:11.800 --> 0:15:14.480 down to one. And you know, you look at as 0:15:14.480 --> 0:15:17.680 a proxy for global demand, oil demand and also the 0:15:17.680 --> 0:15:21.360 economic demand. It's out there and it's speaking volumes. I 0:15:21.360 --> 0:15:23.360 think reading the data right now, it's really difficult. We 0:15:23.360 --> 0:15:26.520 had some I S M and P M I yesterday 0:15:26.640 --> 0:15:29.760 weakness Tom and slightly disappointing as well. Relative to the 0:15:29.920 --> 0:15:34.000 solid economy that was painted by the data, yeah, a 0:15:34.080 --> 0:15:36.520 number of months ago. It's not there in the same way. 0:15:36.840 --> 0:15:39.040 And I think if there's any anxiety right now, Mike, 0:15:39.040 --> 0:15:41.800 it's always about the DOWTA. Where does the change come from? 0:15:41.840 --> 0:15:45.000 In China, we know it's weaker relative to where we 0:15:45.000 --> 0:15:47.360 were before. In Europe, we know it's weaker relatives to 0:15:47.360 --> 0:15:50.320 where we before we were before. The unknown seems to 0:15:50.320 --> 0:15:52.520 be the United States, Mike. What is happening with the 0:15:52.760 --> 0:15:54.880 this U S economy? Is it just a return to 0:15:54.920 --> 0:15:58.640 trend growth or do we overshoot? What's the answer, Mike, Yeah, 0:15:58.640 --> 0:16:00.920 I don't think we overshoot at I think with you're saying, look, 0:16:00.960 --> 0:16:04.640 we've had these these periodic growth slowdowns throughout this entire expansion. 0:16:04.640 --> 0:16:06.720 I think we're seeing one right now. I'd also argue 0:16:06.760 --> 0:16:08.240 that if you if you actually look through the data, 0:16:08.240 --> 0:16:10.480 we are starting to see some signs now of some 0:16:10.560 --> 0:16:12.840 underlying strength. So we don't think the economy is set 0:16:12.840 --> 0:16:15.440 to roll over, nor do we think their session risks 0:16:15.440 --> 0:16:18.200 are particularly acute. We are walking through a period of 0:16:18.600 --> 0:16:21.960 weaker data at least certainly versus consensus expectations, but we 0:16:22.000 --> 0:16:24.720 still expect to see growth somewhere towards trend over the 0:16:24.720 --> 0:16:28.280 course of this year. In two thousand two, Micael Ryan, 0:16:28.320 --> 0:16:31.240 thank you so much with ubs political statement, and of 0:16:31.280 --> 0:16:33.040 course we will have much more from Mr Ryan and 0:16:33.040 --> 0:16:51.320 his team in the coming eighteen months. Guy Johnson is 0:16:51.400 --> 0:16:54.360 with us who has memorized the resume of every prime 0:16:54.400 --> 0:16:57.360 minister of candidate. At the end there Guy Johnson, who 0:16:57.440 --> 0:17:01.840 is Jeremy that he was speaking down to Mr Jeremy Hunt, 0:17:02.000 --> 0:17:06.919 the Foreign Secretary um and asking him whether or not 0:17:07.080 --> 0:17:09.399 one of his competitors would do a good job. And 0:17:09.440 --> 0:17:11.359 I suspect that, Jeremy, what are the shades of the 0:17:11.480 --> 0:17:13.680 What are the shades of the Conservative Party right now? 0:17:13.760 --> 0:17:17.320 For Americans? Are American listeners in Morning America? I would 0:17:17.359 --> 0:17:20.199 suggest it's a bit confusing. There's Boris with a hair 0:17:20.359 --> 0:17:24.200 like Trump, and there's everybody else. What are the shades? Yeah, 0:17:24.600 --> 0:17:26.399 interuting to see the two standing next door to each other, 0:17:26.440 --> 0:17:30.119 wouldn't it We may you never know that might that 0:17:30.240 --> 0:17:33.520 might happen? And as the President suggested, um that the 0:17:33.560 --> 0:17:36.400 two our friends. Um. Look, basically, you've got a Conservative 0:17:36.400 --> 0:17:39.320 Party split into two basic factions, one of which is 0:17:39.320 --> 0:17:42.560 the hard Brexiteers, of which Boris Johnson is the most 0:17:42.640 --> 0:17:45.240 obvious candidate, but there are others, and then you've got 0:17:45.240 --> 0:17:48.000 the more centrist candidates who are pushing back and are 0:17:48.000 --> 0:17:53.320 concerned about the possibility of a hard Brexit. Um. The 0:17:53.359 --> 0:17:57.000 Conservative Party has sort of been split in this way 0:17:57.520 --> 0:18:00.679 for really quite some time. At the moment, Tom, the 0:18:00.720 --> 0:18:03.240 best thing is that a hard Brexit here is likely 0:18:03.280 --> 0:18:06.359 to win out if that is Boris Johnson, will he 0:18:06.400 --> 0:18:10.399 actually deliver upon that hard brexit? Boris has changed his 0:18:10.480 --> 0:18:12.960 spots one or two times. Yes, I see that within 0:18:13.000 --> 0:18:18.240 the British media, the vibrant newspapers of this London. You 0:18:18.320 --> 0:18:21.199 see that every day. But then you get to October 0:18:21.400 --> 0:18:24.840 thirty one, every date has been extended. Do you and 0:18:24.880 --> 0:18:28.240 the British media just assume it's another can to be 0:18:28.359 --> 0:18:31.680 kicking down the road? We went see, we can probably 0:18:31.680 --> 0:18:34.000 ask the question to the French. The French seemed very 0:18:34.080 --> 0:18:37.760 keen that that date is more firm than maybe others 0:18:37.840 --> 0:18:40.520 are suggesting at this stage that a deal needs to 0:18:40.560 --> 0:18:43.080 be done. At this point, I think it's very hard 0:18:43.119 --> 0:18:44.919 to get your arms around understanding whether or not that 0:18:44.960 --> 0:18:47.800 would be the case. Um, I think the EU would 0:18:47.800 --> 0:18:50.600 be nervous about forcing a hard Brexit. Are you with 0:18:50.720 --> 0:18:53.800 Ronnie Queen here? In twenty minutes? I am with Fonny 0:18:53.880 --> 0:18:56.000 quin will be in New York, though I'll be I'll 0:18:56.000 --> 0:18:58.520 be with her here. She'll be with me in spirit 0:18:58.600 --> 0:19:00.800 here as well. Wonderful chemistry as well there between the 0:19:00.840 --> 0:19:03.639 Irish and the Britishers of Anny Quinn and Guy Johnson 0:19:04.080 --> 0:19:20.679 moved the dialogue Ford on Bloomberg Television, Tom, we are 0:19:20.880 --> 0:19:23.680 very fortunate to welcome to the Bloomberg and Actor Broker 0:19:23.800 --> 0:19:28.200 Studio Bob Diamond, partner and founding partner and CEO of 0:19:28.240 --> 0:19:31.840 Atlas Merchant Capital, of course, former CEO of Barkley's. Bob, 0:19:31.880 --> 0:19:35.280 thanks so much for joining us in studio. UM, I 0:19:35.320 --> 0:19:38.080 know you're here for the Bloomberg invest Conference. I just wonder, 0:19:38.240 --> 0:19:40.119 you know, just given what we heard from President Trump 0:19:40.200 --> 0:19:43.400 and Teresa May, one of the topics obviously is Brexit. 0:19:44.119 --> 0:19:46.840 Given your experience in the UK with Barkley's and so on, 0:19:46.920 --> 0:19:49.560 how do you think this is going to play out 0:19:49.920 --> 0:19:53.360 in your opinion? You know, it's the question of the day, 0:19:53.400 --> 0:19:56.359 and I think we're not going to know until leadership 0:19:56.440 --> 0:19:58.960 is is settled, which we've been talking about in the 0:19:59.040 --> 0:20:03.440 Conservative Party. It's going to take leadership to deliver this. Um. 0:20:03.480 --> 0:20:06.480 You know my starting position as it was a bad decision, 0:20:06.800 --> 0:20:08.680 but I think it is what it is, and now 0:20:08.720 --> 0:20:12.520 it's about implementation and execution and moving forward and certainty. 0:20:13.480 --> 0:20:15.720 And I think the business community, in particular in the 0:20:15.760 --> 0:20:19.480 financial services industry needs certainty. So I think the next 0:20:19.560 --> 0:20:21.680 leader has to be someone that we can be confident 0:20:21.800 --> 0:20:26.199 can deliver and execute. Is it your sense, given you 0:20:26.240 --> 0:20:29.919 know your understanding of a British corporate Um, you know, 0:20:30.000 --> 0:20:31.800 politics and what's going on. Is it your sense that 0:20:32.280 --> 0:20:35.879 corporations in the UK have done what they can to 0:20:35.920 --> 0:20:40.000 prepare for what might be a less than clean Brexit. Yeah, 0:20:40.000 --> 0:20:41.600 I would say a couple of things, Paul. It's a 0:20:41.680 --> 0:20:44.320 it's a good point. And through Panmore Gordon, which is 0:20:44.359 --> 0:20:48.520 the middle market broker dealer that we're we're an owner 0:20:48.600 --> 0:20:52.120 of in the UK, we talked to small businesses every 0:20:52.200 --> 0:20:56.680 day and they have moved on so they fully expect Brexit. 0:20:57.160 --> 0:20:59.600 I think they're to your point as prepared as they 0:20:59.600 --> 0:21:02.199 can be right now. And I think if you asked 0:21:02.400 --> 0:21:05.479 the chief executives, they'd say, to a person, we just 0:21:05.560 --> 0:21:07.880 want certainty and we want to move forward. I think 0:21:08.280 --> 0:21:10.720 the kinds of things they were hearing today about the 0:21:10.760 --> 0:21:15.920 potential for trade agreements with the US and UK will 0:21:15.920 --> 0:21:18.680 be will be taken very very positively. But it's certainty 0:21:18.800 --> 0:21:21.720 more than anything else that they need now. Bob Diamond, 0:21:21.720 --> 0:21:24.040 Tom keenan London and we say good morning here from 0:21:24.040 --> 0:21:27.080 the reign of London Light Rain, I should say beautiful. 0:21:27.920 --> 0:21:31.280 As the President moves on with his day. You have 0:21:31.560 --> 0:21:35.679 an uncommonly direct relationship with Boris Johnson, going back to 0:21:35.720 --> 0:21:38.919