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Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of his information. Wouldn't

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Speaker 1: you agree?

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Speaker 2: Did a great?

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Speaker 1: I got five dollars? This is a rale? How bud

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Speaker 1: they trackle hit one man.

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Speaker 3: You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable.

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Speaker 3: Humans need fantasy to be human.

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Speaker 4: My goodness, not mispeak you guys, prose best, relentless, refusing

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Speaker 4: to give up.

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Speaker 1: All right, hit that horn? Very bless there.

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Speaker 3: What's up everybody?

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Fantasy at Flex podcast. I'm your host,

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Speaker 2: Chris Raybond of the Action Network, and this is our

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Speaker 2: quarterback and tight end off season stockwatch episode for the

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty three NFL Fantasy season. Here to break it

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Speaker 2: down with me at one of the top rankers in

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Speaker 2: the game, the odds maker Sean Kerner.

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Speaker 3: Sean, what's going on? Welcome back from overseas up.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, happy to be back.

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Speaker 5: I had a blast, but now I really need a

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Speaker 5: vacation because I'm exhausted from it. But yeah, happy to

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Speaker 5: start diving into projections and talks some football.

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Speaker 1: All right?

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Speaker 2: So, uh and you went to so you went to

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Speaker 2: Spain and for you, yes, I got to tell the

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Speaker 2: listeners where you're.

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Speaker 5: At fantastic like Spain and Portugal. If you haven't been there,

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Speaker 5: go check it out. Had an amazing time.

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Speaker 2: All right, Yeah, so we're gonna we're gonna get into

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Speaker 2: quarterbacks and tight ends this week.

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Speaker 3: You know, real early ADP. You know the FFPC, there's uh,

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Speaker 3: there's Best Ball.

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Speaker 2: So we do have some aps to kind of work

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Speaker 2: off of, and we're just gonna go through our top

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Speaker 2: undervalued quarterbacks and tight ends and our top overvalued quarterbacks

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Speaker 2: and tight ends at this early juncture of the off

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Speaker 2: season for anybody that's starting to draft now or just

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Speaker 2: starting to prepare for the upcoming season. So let's kick

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Speaker 2: it off at the quarterback position. Who you like as

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Speaker 2: undervalued out out here in late May.

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Speaker 5: So I'm going with Anthony Richardson, believe it or not,

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Speaker 5: at QB sixteen. I guess off the top, I should say,

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Speaker 5: you know, deciding which ADP we're using is kind of

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Speaker 5: tricky right now. It's all over the place. So I'm

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Speaker 5: looking at recent Best Ball drafts. I think that's the

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Speaker 5: best indicator sort of where these guys are going. And

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Speaker 5: right now he's going around QB fifteen QB sixteen since

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Speaker 5: the draft, and I think that that sounds fair because

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Speaker 5: you know, his stuck is way up after the draft,

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Speaker 5: you know, the the Colts took him forth overall, I

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Speaker 5: just thought that was an amazing landing spot for him.

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Speaker 5: You know, he gets a planner Shane Steichen, who helped

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Speaker 5: develop Jalen Hurts. But more importantly, you know, when it

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Speaker 5: comes to projections, he should start sooner than later. You know,

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Speaker 5: heading into the draft, the two teams favor or take him,

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Speaker 5: or the Titans and Seahawks. If you were on either team,

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Speaker 5: it'd be really difficult to project him for more than

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Speaker 5: you know, two to three games, just because both those

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Speaker 5: teams already have established star so he would likely need

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Speaker 5: an injury to play anything more than that. That's not

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Speaker 5: the case with the Colts, though, you know he's going

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Speaker 5: to have to leap Frague Gardner Minshew who was brought in,

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Speaker 5: probably doesn't have too long of a leash if he

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Speaker 5: does start this season. So I'm projecting Richardson culture to

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Speaker 5: fourteen games. So that's that's just a massive massive jump

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Speaker 5: when it comes to his rookie season. So you know,

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Speaker 5: I think if he plays more than fifteen games, he

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Speaker 5: obviously has top ten upside potentially top five just given

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Speaker 5: his rushing upside, and while he could be kind of

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Speaker 5: shaky as a passer to start his career, that could

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Speaker 5: just force.

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Speaker 1: An the lean on his legs even more.

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Speaker 5: We love that in fantasy, you know, we love our

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Speaker 5: rushing stats. So I think just QB sixteen is too

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Speaker 5: low for him. He obviously has a wide range of outcomes,

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Speaker 5: but you know, I just love his upside, and this

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Speaker 5: is sort of the range where I do target quarterbacks.

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Speaker 5: We have a massive ceiling. So I think right now

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Speaker 5: QB sixteen is too low.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I totally agree.

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Speaker 2: I think you know, this year, especially you look at

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Speaker 2: the quarterbacks, there's not those kind of slam dunk guys

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Speaker 2: that we've even had last year. I mean, I remember

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Speaker 2: last year we were getting Jared Goff as like a

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Speaker 2: QB twenty seven or something like that, you know, Mariota

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Speaker 2: even with a guy who outperformed as ADP Daniel Jones.

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Speaker 2: We all were on justin fields Jayalen Hurt. Like this year,

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Speaker 2: it's a lot uglier. I think once you get outside

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Speaker 2: that top you know, thirteen, fourteen, fifteen. So yeah, you know,

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Speaker 2: Richardson is kind of that guy that you know, if

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Speaker 2: there's gonna be a guy that's going to He's gonna

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Speaker 2: need some like some variants there obviously, but that rushing

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Speaker 2: potential and that rushing upside that's what always does it.

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Speaker 2: And even with the rookies, there's not a lot of

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Speaker 2: those guys like Stroud and Young aren't like, you know,

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Speaker 2: straight up scrambling quarterbacks the way Richardson is.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I love it. For me, it is Gino Smith.

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Speaker 2: He's going around QB fifteen, and I think he's actually

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Speaker 2: going to be pretty consistent this year.

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Speaker 3: He waslast year.

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Speaker 2: He was the QB five overall last year seven in

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Speaker 2: points per game, and he only finished outside the top

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Speaker 2: twenty one time all season. So he's not just giving you,

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Speaker 2: you know, steady week to week or high end week

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Speaker 2: to week production. But he's extremely consistent. And I think

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Speaker 2: it could be even better because you're talking about adding

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Speaker 2: the top wide receiver in the draft in Jackson Smith, Nujigbua,

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Speaker 2: and you already have Locket, you already have Metcalf and Gino.

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Speaker 2: What kind of goes underrated with him, which is why

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Speaker 2: I like him, especially this year where quarterback is kind

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Speaker 2: of ugly, is he was eighth in rushing yards per

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Speaker 2: game for quarterbacks, and he averaged twenty one and a

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Speaker 2: half per game, so that's really valuable. You know, he's

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Speaker 2: not a true scramming quarterback, but he was using his

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Speaker 2: legs a lot last year. And when you look at

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Speaker 2: his schedule, his schedules also pretty favorable. He doesn't face

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Speaker 2: the defense that finished in the top ten in past

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Speaker 2: defense DVA until Week twelve against the forty nine Ers.

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Speaker 2: That is a pretty tough stretch he has it from

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Speaker 2: week twelve to fifteen. He faces the Niners twice in

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Speaker 2: their Cowboys Eagles, but beyond that, the schedule looks pretty favorable.

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Speaker 2: And you know, he got better or his supporting cast

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Speaker 2: got better from last year.

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Speaker 3: So I like him.

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Speaker 2: I think QB fifteen is too high for a guy

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Speaker 2: that only finished outside the top thirteen five times. Almost

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Speaker 2: He was essentially a pretty good lock for QB one

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Speaker 2: most weeks that he suited up.

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Speaker 3: So like me, some gino here, Yeah, he I.

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Speaker 5: Mean, he was one of the biggest surprises of twenty

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Speaker 5: twenty two, and I had him as a big winner

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Speaker 5: from the draft. You know, they, like I said, Seahawks

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Speaker 5: could have drafted Anthony and Richardson that could have complicated

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Speaker 5: things and instead, you know, they drafted Jackson Smith and

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Speaker 5: the ZIGBA, so he has one of the best wide wide.

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Speaker 1: Receiver trios in the league potentially. So yeah, I love that, right.

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Speaker 3: Give me another one.

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Speaker 5: So I'm going with our boy Jared Goff. You know,

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Speaker 5: he's going QB fifteen, which is fair. You know, he

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Speaker 5: finishes the QB ten line season. But you know, there

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Speaker 5: was a chance the offensive corner of Ben Johnson was

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Speaker 5: gonna get plucked by another team to go be a

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Speaker 5: head coach somewhere else. But the fact that he's staying

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Speaker 5: is just fantastic news for golf, and I think that

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Speaker 5: helps him give him a high floor.

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Speaker 1: But golf, you know, he has some sneaky upside as well.

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Speaker 1: This season.

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Speaker 5: He could improve on last year's numbers. You know, he

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Speaker 5: threw twenty nine touchdowns last year, despite the fact the

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Speaker 5: Lions offense scored fifty two offensive touchdowns. You know, he

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Speaker 5: lost some potential touchdowns to Jamal Williams and just you know,

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Speaker 5: the Lions scoring a ton of touchdowns on the ground.

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Speaker 5: So with just some simple positive regression, he could throw

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Speaker 5: for thirty to thirty five touchdowns this year, just with

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Speaker 5: the fact that Jamal Williams is gone and you know

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Speaker 5: this offense should still be very potent.

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Speaker 1: And love the Lions draft for him.

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Speaker 5: You know, they drafted Jamier Gibbs, who was an excellent

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Speaker 5: pass catching back. Sam Laporta, who I'm gonna talk about later.

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Speaker 5: I'm very high on, you know, as the potential TJ.

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Speaker 5: Hawkinson replacement. And while it's not ideal Jamis and Williams

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Speaker 5: will Jamis and Williams will miss the first six games,

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Speaker 5: it's not like golf had him last year anyway. So once,

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Speaker 5: once Jamison Williams comes in the mix again, that's gonna

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Speaker 5: unlock golf ceiling potentially. So give me fifteen seems pretty fair.

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Speaker 5: But I just love that range given his you know,

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Speaker 5: pretty high four ceiling combo.

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Speaker 3: Oh, I love Jared Goff, like you stole both of

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Speaker 3: the guys that I like. Those are my top two.

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Speaker 2: But you got into the outline before with Richardson Agoff.

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Speaker 2: So but I love gov and I think his stock

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Speaker 2: went up after the draft and after the schedule release

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Speaker 2: as well, because you know the thing with Jared Goff

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Speaker 2: is like the knock on him always has been cold

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Speaker 2: weather games outdoors late in a year, you know, those

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Speaker 2: are the games he struggled. And last year indoors two

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Speaker 2: hundred and seventy one passing yards and two point two

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Speaker 2: passing touchdowns per game, but outdoors just two hundred and

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Speaker 2: forty four yards and.

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Speaker 3: Under a touchdown per game.

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Speaker 2: Well, this year, four of his last five games on

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Speaker 2: the road are indoors, and he's only got one at

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Speaker 2: this point. It looks like one true code weather game,

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Speaker 2: and that is going to be at the Bears in

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Speaker 2: Week fourteen. He plays the Packers at Lambeau early in

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Speaker 2: the year in September. I think it's week four, so

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Speaker 2: that shouldn't be a massively.

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Speaker 3: Cold weather game.

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Speaker 2: It's got a game at Baltimore earlier in the year

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Speaker 2: that shouldn't be super colde either. So I think the

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Speaker 2: schedule sets up really well for him, and I think

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Speaker 2: the even the first three weeks, because you know, once

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Speaker 2: you get outside those top eight to nine guys, you're

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Speaker 2: probably you're looking for guys like you could stream, and

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Speaker 2: so if you're gonna draft the guy like that, the

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Speaker 2: most valuable guys are gonna be the guys who have

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Speaker 2: the most value early on, and he starts Kansas City, Seattle, Atlanta,

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Speaker 2: those are three three excellent potential shootout type of matchups

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Speaker 2: for golf. So I think, yeah, I really like that,

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Speaker 2: really like golf as well. And yeah, as I mentioned,

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Speaker 2: you know, you so my two guys, So I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: go a little bit more off the map. These guys

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Speaker 2: are more kind of speculative, but they do have some

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Speaker 2: upside and they are kind of there right now that

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Speaker 2: the QB one in the depth chart.

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Speaker 3: Now will that stay for the whole.

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Speaker 2: Year, who knows, but you kind of have If they

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Speaker 2: play well, they're going to stay QB one. So that's

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Speaker 2: where you kind of get the upside from. And they're

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Speaker 2: gonna kill their ADPs. And that's desmart Ritter at QB thirty.

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Speaker 2: You know, he's one of the few quarterbacks going down

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Speaker 2: there that does have some decent rushing upside. He scrambles

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Speaker 2: about eight to ten percent of the time, averaged sixteen

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Speaker 2: rushing yards per game in four starts, but it could

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Speaker 2: have been even a little more than that. Some a

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Speaker 2: few of his scrambles went for like a few yards

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Speaker 2: and you would expect but you know, just throwing a

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Speaker 2: pitch London Bijon Patterson. They added John new Smith, one

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Speaker 2: of the best offensive lines.

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Speaker 3: So I think Ritter is sneaky.

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Speaker 2: You know, if he starts off well, I think he's

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Speaker 2: gonna he could, you know, make even more starts than

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Speaker 2: Mariota I think May thirteen last year. So it's kind

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Speaker 2: of it's still a risk because you know they do

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Speaker 2: have Heinicky behind him. If he falters, I do think

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Speaker 2: you will see Heinike. But if you're you're like a

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Speaker 2: QB thirty, you're kind of playing for upside. And I

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Speaker 2: think Ritter he's gonna beat out a lot of these

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Speaker 2: other pocket passers and you know, finish closer, you know

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Speaker 2: he'll be in the mid range.

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Speaker 3: I think QB two range if he if he can

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Speaker 3: keep the job all year.

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Speaker 2: And a similar guy is Sam Howe. He's going one

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Speaker 2: spot after Ritter at QB thirty one. But you know,

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Speaker 2: he scrambled twelve percent of the time in his own start,

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Speaker 2: fourteen percent of the time in the preseason. And you

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Speaker 2: got a new offensive coordinator there, Eric b Enemy, who's

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Speaker 2: been in Kansas City. He's never called plays, but he's

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Speaker 2: they've been pass heavy in Kansas City. And Howell does

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Speaker 2: you know he's a guy who can throw it down

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Speaker 2: the field. He has uh, he's another guy that has

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Speaker 2: some rushing ability. So you know, it's not you know,

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Speaker 2: it's a very it's like a super poor man's homeless

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Speaker 2: version of Mahomes. But you know, I don't know. I

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Speaker 2: don't know if if the enemy is gonna just come

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Speaker 2: there and be as run heavy as they were at

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Speaker 2: times last year with with Heinike and with Carson Wentz.

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Speaker 2: So I think both of these guys, just because they

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Speaker 2: have you know, above average rushing ability for a quarterback,

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Speaker 2: if they if they hold onto those jobs, I do

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Speaker 2: think that they will significantly outperform their adp probably better

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Speaker 2: picks for redraft than best Ball, because we don't it's

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Speaker 2: not a guarantee that they keep the jobs.

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Speaker 3: But like if you're in a very you know, like

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Speaker 3: a uh.

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Speaker 2: Like if you want to take a shot in like

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Speaker 2: an f PPC, like no one like your team construction

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Speaker 2: is going to be super unique if you have one

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Speaker 2: of those guys and they do kill and like I said,

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Speaker 2: it's correlated, right, if they have good seasons, they're gonna

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Speaker 2: keep the job. So I think those two guys that

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Speaker 2: are too I'm kind of watching for. But it's it's

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Speaker 2: slim Pickens compared to most years where we usually have

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Speaker 2: like a bona fide guy that were like, he's just

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Speaker 2: gonna run for a lot of yards, it doesn't matter

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Speaker 2: how shitt he is h you know, throwing the ball.

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Speaker 2: We don't really have those guys this year. So I

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Speaker 2: think Ritter and How are the closest things at this point.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I agree.

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Speaker 5: I think those two guys in that range, you're just

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Speaker 5: going for upside in that range, Like, what are you

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Speaker 5: going to do? Take Nac Jones or Ryan Tannehill. We

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Speaker 5: know those guys are you know, low m QB twos

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Speaker 5: right now? I will be interested to see, you know,

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Speaker 5: once we start doing projections like rock Purty Trey Lancer

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Speaker 5: is in this range, they might be interesting. But again

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Speaker 5: we don't really know who's starting there. But like you said,

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Speaker 5: both of these quarterbacks, you know, they could get benched

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Speaker 5: by week three or something. So there is some downside,

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Speaker 5: but there is some you know, talent there and some

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Speaker 5: certainly upside. So this range is where you kind of

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Speaker 5: want to just bank on upside or buy in it

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Speaker 5: on it.

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Speaker 2: And the issue with the Niners situation is Donald is

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Speaker 2: a factor in this whole thing. So it's like it

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Speaker 2: it would be if there was just if it was

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Speaker 2: just okay, you know, Lance is going to start till

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Speaker 2: Purdy comes back, and maybe Lance will open the season

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Speaker 2: and so he'd have a chance to keep the job.

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Speaker 3: That would be one thing.

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Speaker 2: But I keep hearing positive Darnald reports, and he did

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Speaker 2: have a good what is it, four or five game

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Speaker 2: stretch for the Panthers last year, So I mean, who

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Speaker 2: knows so that that, you know, having three guys instead

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Speaker 2: of two kind of complicates that a little bit there,

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Speaker 2: and we really don't know who is the QB one.

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Speaker 3: So right, that's that's that's that's the issue there.

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Speaker 2: But you know, Lance is a they're saying he's a

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Speaker 2: trade candidate, so that's also something to watch out for

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Speaker 2: as well.

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Speaker 3: All right, what about four over valued quarterbacks?

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Speaker 5: So I'm going with Aaron Rodgers. You know right now

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Speaker 5: his ADP is QB nine. It's kind of fluctuating a bit,

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Speaker 5: but QB nine is a bit too rich for me.

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Speaker 5: You know. Obviously there's a ton of hype surrounding him,

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Speaker 5: you know, going to the Jets, and that's made his price,

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Speaker 5: you know, jump a bit too high in my opinion.

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Speaker 5: Just getting to throw, you know, to Garrett Wilson gives

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Speaker 5: him an upgrade weapons compared to last year. But you know,

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Speaker 5: he also brought over Alan Lazard and Randall Cobb with him,

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Speaker 5: so that means he's gonna have a lot of the

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Speaker 5: same weapons as he did last year. So when it

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Speaker 5: comes to Rogers, you know, it does take him time

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Speaker 5: to build chemistry with pass catchers, so it makes sense

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Speaker 5: he'd want.

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Speaker 1: To bring over some of those weapons.

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Speaker 5: But you know, it's one of those situations where you know,

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Speaker 5: could take him a few games to really gel with

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Speaker 5: this offense.

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Speaker 1: I've mentioned that before.

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Speaker 5: You know, with Pyton Manning and Tom Brady on their

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Speaker 5: new team, they were solid their first season and then

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Speaker 5: they just erupted a near or two. I think we

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Speaker 5: could see, you know, a similar path for Rogers. I

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Speaker 5: think the one thing going in his favor certainly is

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Speaker 5: he's going to be familiar with the offense under Nathaniel Hackett.

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Speaker 5: You know, their offensive Coroner who was his coordinator when

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Speaker 5: he won those recent MVPs in Green Bay. So I

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Speaker 5: think the transition with that could help. But I'm just

355
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Speaker 5: not sure. You know, Rodgers has top five upside anymore,

356
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Speaker 5: so I don't know why you take him in the

357
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Speaker 5: top ten. Plus, you know the Jets they have really

358
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Speaker 5: good defense. They were ranked fifth in dvery last year,

359
00:17:15,080 --> 00:17:17,680
Speaker 5: should be elite again this year. So I just don't

360
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Speaker 5: know if he's gonna have to throw a ton for

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Speaker 5: the Jets to win. So well, you know, Rogers gives

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Speaker 5: the Jets.

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Speaker 1: A huge upgrade at QB.

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Speaker 5: I don't think this is a really huge upgrade for

365
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Speaker 5: him in fantasy. So the fact that you get Jared

366
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Speaker 5: Goff a bit later, I'm projecting these guys almost identical

367
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Speaker 5: is the reason why I'm just going to pass on

368
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Speaker 5: Rogers and kind of wait for a guy like Jared Goff.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I completely agree because with Aaron Rodgers, first of all,

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Speaker 2: you talk about top five upside. Aaron Rodgers last season

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Speaker 2: no top five finishes in any.

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Speaker 1: Week, oh, any week, any week.

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Speaker 2: His highest His highest finish was seventh, and that was

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Speaker 2: his only finish that was higher than twelve. He was

375
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Speaker 2: twelfth or below in all but one game, no top

376
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Speaker 2: five finishes. So I mean in that like, yes, this

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00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:10,000
Speaker 2: jet you know, Garrett Wilson talented player, but you mentioned it,

378
00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:11,720
Speaker 2: the defense is gonna be real good. And not only that,

379
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Speaker 2: when you look at this AFC East, the defense is

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Speaker 2: that he's gonna have to face twice each the Bills.

381
00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:20,320
Speaker 2: The Dolphins are pretty vaded now with Jaywen Ramsey and

382
00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:24,920
Speaker 2: Hubb and and then you have the Patriots and they're

383
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Speaker 2: always a great defense. So the matchups aren't gonna be

384
00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:32,160
Speaker 2: great in a lot of these spots. And uh yeah,

385
00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:34,199
Speaker 2: he just hasn't shown the same same type of upside.

386
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Speaker 2: So yeah, he's I think, I don't think he's a

387
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Speaker 2: QB one guy that you want to like.

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Speaker 3: He's not the old Iron Rodgers. And Hackett has never been.

389
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Speaker 2: A great play caller because he remember he wasn't calling

390
00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:48,679
Speaker 2: plays in Green Bay, it was it was Lafour, So

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00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:52,040
Speaker 2: who knows. You know, we've seen this go bad with

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Speaker 2: Hackett before.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so true, But again this is probably really good

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Speaker 5: news for Garrett Wilson.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he has top five side this season, but just.

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Speaker 5: When it comes to Rodgers, I don't see this really

397
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Speaker 5: boosting Rodgers's value this year.

398
00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:08,879
Speaker 2: Absolutely, Yeah, I think you want to invest in in

399
00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:11,520
Speaker 2: Wilson in this offense, not try to.

400
00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:17,440
Speaker 3: Get cute with Rogers. Yeah. For me, a guy that's overvalued.

401
00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:21,800
Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins is going QB eleven, and he's a guy

402
00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:26,760
Speaker 2: you know, naturally like in guys like Goff, guys like Richardson,

403
00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:28,440
Speaker 2: Geno Smith, kirk.

404
00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:30,280
Speaker 3: Cousins is a guy that bumps down a little bit

405
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Speaker 3: for me.

406
00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:33,000
Speaker 2: You know, he was the guy that did not have

407
00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:36,360
Speaker 2: a top five finish until Week fourteen, and he only

408
00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:40,400
Speaker 2: had three all year, and he was kind of inconsistent.

409
00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:44,640
Speaker 2: And that was even with an offense that was near

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00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:49,400
Speaker 2: the top of the league in past attempts. And then

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Speaker 2: you look at, okay, well, where do you have those

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00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:54,920
Speaker 2: top five finishes? They all came against defenses that were

413
00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:58,720
Speaker 2: eighteenth or worth in DVOA last year. This year he

414
00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:01,080
Speaker 2: starts the year with three defense is that were in

415
00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:04,400
Speaker 2: the you know, in the top fifteen, with Tampa Bay,

416
00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:06,320
Speaker 2: Philly and the Chargers. So like, he's not going to

417
00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:09,800
Speaker 2: start the year with the incredible matchups. Thewen's gone. Dewen

418
00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,520
Speaker 2: had thirty one percent of his touchdowns over the last

419
00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:14,960
Speaker 2: three years, and I think he's gotten lucky in a

420
00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:17,600
Speaker 2: way in a sense that like last year that they

421
00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:18,000
Speaker 2: were one.

422
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Speaker 3: Of the healthiest teams on offense.

423
00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:23,800
Speaker 2: Justin Jefferson has never missed a game, and yet Cousins

424
00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:26,359
Speaker 2: is kind of like wingering here and then in this

425
00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:29,800
Speaker 2: like QB twelve ish to you know range with not

426
00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:33,800
Speaker 2: that many top five finishes, and I think there's a

427
00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:36,080
Speaker 2: lot more downside than upside, Like even if his median

428
00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:39,280
Speaker 2: is around you know, QB twelve ish, I think there's

429
00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:41,680
Speaker 2: a lot more downside. He's been declining in his efficiency

430
00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:44,440
Speaker 2: metrics every year for the last few years.

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Speaker 3: He's turning thirty five this year.

432
00:20:46,080 --> 00:20:48,679
Speaker 2: So I just think last season, if he was going

433
00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:52,479
Speaker 2: to put up big numbers with the way Justin Jefferson played,

434
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,880
Speaker 2: they had a couple of crazy like overtime games where

435
00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:59,000
Speaker 2: he got added additional stats, Like if he wasn't gonna

436
00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:01,120
Speaker 2: you know, put up better number than that last year,

437
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Speaker 2: I only see I see downside for him more than upside.

438
00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:06,639
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'd rather have a guy like like a

439
00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:09,160
Speaker 2: like a golf like a geno, and even a guy

440
00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:11,000
Speaker 2: like Richardson because you can wait a little bit, even

441
00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:13,040
Speaker 2: if maybe his median isn't higher. You know, you can

442
00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:14,959
Speaker 2: wait a little bit and get you know, kind of

443
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:18,879
Speaker 2: some upside there as opposed to drafting cousins, you know,

444
00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:20,160
Speaker 2: right outside that top ten.

445
00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:24,840
Speaker 5: At QB eleven, Yeah, he's he's tricky because you know,

446
00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:27,960
Speaker 5: he has just wealth of riches. He has you know,

447
00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:30,080
Speaker 5: the best receiver in the game in Justin Jefferson, he

448
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:30,560
Speaker 5: has TJ.

449
00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:31,120
Speaker 1: Hawkinson.

450
00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:34,000
Speaker 5: Now I think Addison could be better than Adam Feelin

451
00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:37,840
Speaker 5: this season, so he has a great supporting cast. But

452
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:40,119
Speaker 5: like you said, QB eleven is a bit rich. He

453
00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:43,680
Speaker 5: doesn't offer much upside, so he's not great in best ball.

454
00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:45,160
Speaker 1: Certainly wouldn't want him, as.

455
00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:46,960
Speaker 5: You know, my QB in a QB one league, but

456
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:50,119
Speaker 5: I think two QB leagues like super flex with super

457
00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:52,760
Speaker 5: flex leagues, that's where he makes the most sense.

458
00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:54,640
Speaker 1: So I think with him it depends on the draft.

459
00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:57,840
Speaker 5: But I agree, I think you know, QB eleven is

460
00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:00,439
Speaker 5: a bit too rich just giving his limited up side.

461
00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:01,960
Speaker 3: All right, who else you got?

462
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:05,920
Speaker 5: I got oh, another veteran QB who's on your team

463
00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 5: this year, Derek Carr. So he's QB nineteen, which I

464
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:12,359
Speaker 5: think is a bit too rich for him. Because again

465
00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:14,960
Speaker 5: he's one of those guys that doesn't present much upside.

466
00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:17,640
Speaker 5: Plus I would say he gets a downgrade and pass

467
00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:21,439
Speaker 5: catching talent around him this year in my opinion, but

468
00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 5: he offers zero rushing upside. And I think, you know,

469
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:28,760
Speaker 5: with Jamal Williams on the team and Haysom Hill packages

470
00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 5: around the goal line, I think that's going to hurt

471
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:33,960
Speaker 5: us touch on upside. So it also caps his ceiling

472
00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:37,160
Speaker 5: as well. So he just feels like a low floor

473
00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:39,920
Speaker 5: ceiling type of guy that I just don't want him

474
00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:42,600
Speaker 5: inside the top twenty. So I think at QB nineteen,

475
00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 5: I want nothing to do with Derek Carr.

476
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:49,040
Speaker 2: Another guy who had no top five finishes last year.

477
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:52,040
Speaker 1: That makes sense, yeah, and is surprising.

478
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:57,200
Speaker 2: And no, he had three Rogers had Rogers, Car and Car, Yeah,

479
00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 2: both of the guys that you're mentioning. You know, Car,

480
00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:03,280
Speaker 2: he had a couple of just outside like a six. No,

481
00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:04,880
Speaker 2: he only had he had a six and a nine

482
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:07,840
Speaker 2: and that was that was really the only uh, the

483
00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:10,920
Speaker 2: only ones in one other tent. So yeah, it wasn't

484
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:13,760
Speaker 2: you know, the upside wasn't great. And I think something

485
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:17,239
Speaker 2: that's not being talked about enough is that you know,

486
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:19,760
Speaker 2: it's looked at as like this upgrade for New Orleans,

487
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:23,880
Speaker 2: you know, and for him going there, But like you said,

488
00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:26,000
Speaker 2: I don't know if it's necessarily a big.

489
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:26,680
Speaker 3: Upgrade for him.

490
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:30,760
Speaker 2: But also he's struggled in his first year in a

491
00:23:30,840 --> 00:23:34,080
Speaker 2: new offense pretty much throughout his career. He's had four

492
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:38,680
Speaker 2: previous NFL seasons where it's year one of a new offense,

493
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:42,720
Speaker 2: and those are his four worst seasons in passer rating,

494
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:46,960
Speaker 2: completion rate, yards per attempt, and passing yards per game,

495
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:51,439
Speaker 2: so volume and efficiency, he's been at his work. His

496
00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 2: worst seasons in all four of his all of all

497
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:56,720
Speaker 2: of his years in the league have come in those

498
00:23:56,760 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 2: four years. So you know, yes, the Saints do have

499
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:04,120
Speaker 2: you know, Michael Thomas and Olave, but you know, there

500
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:06,560
Speaker 2: could be a transition period and the defense is a

501
00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:09,000
Speaker 2: lot better than this Raider defense that was one of

502
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:11,720
Speaker 2: the worst in the league. So you might have the

503
00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:14,200
Speaker 2: same issue you have with Rogers, which is that he's

504
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 2: not gonna have to throw as much, and then if

505
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 2: he's not as efficient when he's throwing it, you could

506
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 2: turn into like Andy Dalton had a pretty efficient year

507
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 2: and he didn't put up many Fantasy points because Taysom

508
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:27,480
Speaker 2: Hill would come in take all the you know, because.

509
00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:29,919
Speaker 3: And literally Taysom Hill will come in at quarterback.

510
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:33,400
Speaker 2: So that could hurt Car just like it it hurt

511
00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:38,480
Speaker 2: Dalton at times. For me, I got Tyler Murray QB

512
00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:41,480
Speaker 2: nineteen and like, you know how I feel about these

513
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 2: guys When it comes to these guys that were people

514
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:46,840
Speaker 2: are kind of banking on them coming back mid season

515
00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:49,600
Speaker 2: and like, oh, I'm just gonna stash them. I just

516
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:53,240
Speaker 2: don't buy it with with like, it doesn't work out

517
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 2: as much as I think the ADPs would suggest.

518
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:58,679
Speaker 3: If you go just back and look over where everyone

519
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:01,560
Speaker 3: kind of ends up. Especially with Kyler.

520
00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:05,000
Speaker 2: You have most reports saying he's gonna miss half the season.

521
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 2: It could be more because you you know, this is

522
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:13,359
Speaker 2: a team that they're they're preparing for next season. You know,

523
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 2: this Cardinal team, they stocked up draft assets for next year,

524
00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 2: so they have they could have the number one and

525
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:21,679
Speaker 2: number two pick in the draft because they got the

526
00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:22,760
Speaker 2: Texans pick next year.

527
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:24,479
Speaker 3: I think it's eleven total picks.

528
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:28,680
Speaker 2: So if they're if they start the year and he's

529
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:30,520
Speaker 2: out for you know, and they start like one in

530
00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:32,920
Speaker 2: six or one in seven, I don't think they'll be

531
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:35,080
Speaker 2: in any rush to bring him back and you know,

532
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:39,320
Speaker 2: mess up their draft odds. And on top of that,

533
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:43,240
Speaker 2: the Cardinals by is not until Week fourteen, so that

534
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:46,880
Speaker 2: means while he's injured, you're not getting to skip his by,

535
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 2: Like if you're stashing him for mid season, he's coming back,

536
00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:53,639
Speaker 2: and then just as you're fighting for your fantasy playoff spot,

537
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:58,240
Speaker 2: he goes on a bye. So I really don't see

538
00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:01,840
Speaker 2: the point in drafting him as a top twenty quarterback.

539
00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:04,720
Speaker 2: And you know, these like we don't know how he's

540
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:07,360
Speaker 2: going to be coming off of ACL. He's also had

541
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 2: he missed three games with an ankle in twenty twenty one,

542
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 2: and then he had two games missed with a thigh

543
00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:14,399
Speaker 2: last year before the ACL, So you're starting to have

544
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 2: a history of lower leg injuries that could impact his

545
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:21,080
Speaker 2: scrambling ability, which is obviously major. And you know, like

546
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:23,399
Speaker 2: I just you know, this team is planning for the future.

547
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:26,520
Speaker 2: Their win totals four and a half, So like, if

548
00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:29,960
Speaker 2: you're expecting Kyro even for you know, any substantial amount

549
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:32,119
Speaker 2: of time, I think it would be a little higher

550
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:34,680
Speaker 2: than four and a half. So like that four and

551
00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:37,240
Speaker 2: a half kind of tells us that they might be

552
00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:40,160
Speaker 2: expecting Kiro to miss most, if not all, the year,

553
00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:43,439
Speaker 2: or Arizona just kind of shut him down, so all

554
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:45,480
Speaker 2: those things kind of I just don't see how you

555
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:48,240
Speaker 2: draft him, you know, with a top as a top

556
00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 2: twenty quarterback.

557
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:53,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, just projecting the Cardinals as a disaster right now.

558
00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:55,439
Speaker 5: We don't like, we don't know what's up with DeAndre

559
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 5: Hopkins either, but I agree, it's probably just going to

560
00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:00,359
Speaker 5: be a throwaway season. And it'll be interesting if they

561
00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:02,680
Speaker 5: have the first pick, you know, next year, do they

562
00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:04,920
Speaker 5: take Caleb Williams, do they trade away, what do they do?

563
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 5: So it'll be interesting to see. But yeah, if he's

564
00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:10,600
Speaker 5: expected miss half half the season, that's this is.

565
00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 1: Way too high.

566
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:14,480
Speaker 5: And I'm a fan of you know, stashing injury guys

567
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:17,680
Speaker 5: if they're missing a few games, but you know, half

568
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 5: the season's a bit much, especially at quarterback.

569
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:22,679
Speaker 1: So yeah, this is way too high. But this is

570
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:23,400
Speaker 1: one of those things.

571
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 5: We have to monitor because you know, he could end

572
00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:28,360
Speaker 5: up missing three games or something like this, so he'll

573
00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:31,160
Speaker 5: probably have a voll little projection heading this season. But yeah,

574
00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:35,080
Speaker 5: funny one or in miss twenty range is way too high.

575
00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 2: All right, let's go to tight end, who do you

576
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:39,879
Speaker 2: like as undervalued right now?

577
00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:43,400
Speaker 5: So I'm going with Sam Laporta. You know, he's going

578
00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:46,440
Speaker 5: around tight end twenty four. But you know, he was

579
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:48,560
Speaker 5: one of the big winners of the draft. He was

580
00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:51,720
Speaker 5: one of the best receiving tight end prospects entering the draft,

581
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:54,200
Speaker 5: and he reminded me of a blend of two other

582
00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:57,679
Speaker 5: Iowa tight ends and George Kittle and Noah Fant and

583
00:27:57,720 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 5: the Lions took him, you know, in the second round

584
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:01,879
Speaker 5: is a second tight end off the board. He's not

585
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:04,159
Speaker 5: a great blocker, so they clearly drafted him for his

586
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 5: receiving skills. You know, they need the TJ. Hawkinson replacement

587
00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:09,919
Speaker 5: and he fits that bill. So I think he should

588
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:13,239
Speaker 5: play right away. And after aman Ross Saint Brown, you know,

589
00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:16,000
Speaker 5: it's it's pretty wide open who will be Goff's number

590
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:18,520
Speaker 5: two target. And Golf has the history of targeting tight

591
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:21,479
Speaker 5: ends with you know, t J. Hawkinson, Tyler Higby when

592
00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 5: he was on the Rams. So I just think there's

593
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 5: a ton of upside with Laporta. And you know, there's

594
00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:29,520
Speaker 5: a ton of touch on upside as I was mentioning earlier.

595
00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 5: You know, I think GoF could easily for a thirty

596
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:35,120
Speaker 5: to thirty five touchdowns this year. So you know, Laporta

597
00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:37,919
Speaker 5: in this you know, tight end twenty four range is

598
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 5: way too low. Now, rookie tight ends can be a

599
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:42,560
Speaker 5: bit of a crap shoot. You know, they tend to

600
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 5: struggle a bit more than other positions entering the league.

601
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:49,520
Speaker 5: But I think Laporta is pretty polished as a pass catcher,

602
00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 5: and you know he could be you know, a high

603
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:55,080
Speaker 5: end tight end to right off the bat. So I

604
00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 5: love getting him in this range right now.

605
00:28:57,440 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's one of those few guys that you know

606
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:01,400
Speaker 2: is at these guys at tight end that they just

607
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:05,240
Speaker 2: don't have much upside. But Laporta, he ran a four

608
00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:08,360
Speaker 2: point five nine forty that's in the ninety first percentile

609
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 2: a month tight ends. That's very fast, and as you mentioned,

610
00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:15,520
Speaker 2: he could take over that that Hockinson roll. You know,

611
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 2: the coach actually said he's gonna play early and often,

612
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 2: So that kind of tells you that, you know, they're

613
00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:24,960
Speaker 2: looking for that Hockinson replacement because they'd had a few

614
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:27,360
Speaker 2: young guys on the roster last year.

615
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:29,240
Speaker 3: But I guess you know, they weren't doing that. That

616
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:30,520
Speaker 3: wasn't They weren't doing it for him.

617
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think Laporta, I mean upside is probably

618
00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 2: like a Hockinson rookie year type season.

619
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:39,760
Speaker 3: So yeah, I like it a lot.

620
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:40,800
Speaker 5: Uh.

621
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:45,440
Speaker 2: I gotta go with my guy Chigokonko for Tennessee. He's

622
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:47,960
Speaker 2: going as the tight end fourteen, but I think he

623
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:49,840
Speaker 2: should be going as a T one. He's going kind

624
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:51,880
Speaker 2: of on the in that high end tight end two range.

625
00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 2: His there's not a it's kind of like quarterback. There's

626
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:57,240
Speaker 2: just not a lot of tight ends that you could

627
00:29:57,280 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 2: really be confident in and that have upside outside you know,

628
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 2: the top few guys. And when you look at Oconquo

629
00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 2: twenty six percent target per route run rate, that is

630
00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:10,480
Speaker 2: immaculate for a tight end like that is that is

631
00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:13,959
Speaker 2: Chelsea Kelsey Andrews like pushing like that's that kind of

632
00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:16,560
Speaker 2: that that that's that kind of level. And he led

633
00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 2: all tight ends with two point six yards per route

634
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:23,240
Speaker 2: run last year, but he only played on thirty two percent.

635
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:26,200
Speaker 2: He only ran around on thirty two percent of the snaps.

636
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:32,280
Speaker 2: Now Austin Hooper's gone, they only have Kevin Raider Trevon

637
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:36,240
Speaker 2: Wesco as the veterans on that roster. Those are blocking guys,

638
00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:39,280
Speaker 2: and then they drafted Josh Wiwie. Uh and I think

639
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 2: they have one other got like a kind of colleg

640
00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:45,440
Speaker 2: free agent guy, but their tight ends on their entire

641
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:51,280
Speaker 2: roster outside of Oconco have ten combined career catches. So

642
00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:55,080
Speaker 2: he there, he has the upside to go like does average.

643
00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 2: The normal starting tight end usually is around sixty five

644
00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 2: to seventy percent of the routes per dropback on a

645
00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:05,200
Speaker 2: game to game basis, and he has he has that

646
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:07,400
Speaker 2: upside for that for his thirty two percent to double

647
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:10,440
Speaker 2: or even more. And with his efficiency. You know, I'm

648
00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 2: not I'm saying it's gonna obviously regress. You're not going

649
00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 2: to project it last year, but he's one of the like,

650
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 2: he's really one of the only guys that all right,

651
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:21,320
Speaker 2: he has the upside to play you know, almost every

652
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:25,840
Speaker 2: down he had, and he has these highly efficient tendencies

653
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:27,520
Speaker 2: because he's a super explosive guy.

654
00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:30,680
Speaker 3: Uh. And so I really like this.

655
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:33,320
Speaker 2: I really like him outside of once you get I

656
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 2: mean even I'll talk about somebody I think, like, I

657
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:39,400
Speaker 2: think the tight end six is overvalued this year, So like,

658
00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:43,320
Speaker 2: outside the top five, really tough to find a guy,

659
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:45,360
Speaker 2: and I think this is he's like that one guy

660
00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:48,680
Speaker 2: that has that similar athleticism to you know, guys like

661
00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:51,400
Speaker 2: Nadjoku and and guys who are going a little bit

662
00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:53,840
Speaker 2: higher that that are in a more solidified position. So

663
00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:56,400
Speaker 2: I really love Oconco and he could you know, the

664
00:31:56,480 --> 00:32:00,160
Speaker 2: way Tennessee's going, Uh, it looks like Burkes and he

665
00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 2: could be their number two target and if he's getting

666
00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:04,720
Speaker 2: anywhere close to that twenty six percent target per route,

667
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:07,280
Speaker 2: he could be their number one receiver on a lot,

668
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:08,040
Speaker 2: like a lot of weeks.

669
00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:10,760
Speaker 3: So yeah, I love him, Yeah.

670
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 1: For sure.

671
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 5: I mean he just has massive upside and if you're

672
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:17,280
Speaker 5: playing best ball, he's in a great spot. You know,

673
00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:19,400
Speaker 5: if you're going for upside, and even read draft leagues,

674
00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 5: that's a great spot to go with upside because if

675
00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 5: it doesn't pan out, you could drop him after a

676
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 5: couple weeks. It's no big deal. But yeah, last year,

677
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:28,000
Speaker 5: if like Austin Hooper were to miss a game and

678
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:30,560
Speaker 5: I could project the concord for like run seventy percent

679
00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 5: routes run, he was like breaking my model. He would

680
00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 5: have been like a quorderline top five tight end.

681
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:38,080
Speaker 1: So you might as well, you know, buy in on that.

682
00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 5: And they didn't really add any weapons in the draft

683
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:44,080
Speaker 5: or free agency, nothing, and they lost Robert Woods, so

684
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:47,160
Speaker 5: you know, he could have some significant playing time and

685
00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:49,200
Speaker 5: he has just a ton of upside. So yeah, I

686
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 5: love him at titan fourteenth range.

687
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:52,720
Speaker 3: All right, who else you got?

688
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:56,160
Speaker 5: I'm going with my boy, Greg Dolcic at tight end

689
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:58,640
Speaker 5: seventeen is roughly where he's going right now.

690
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:00,000
Speaker 1: That's just way too.

691
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:03,720
Speaker 5: For Dulcic, who already flashed top ten upside as rookie

692
00:33:03,800 --> 00:33:06,520
Speaker 5: last season, and that was, you know, a season where

693
00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:08,640
Speaker 5: he was already behind the curve, you know, as he

694
00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:11,680
Speaker 5: missed most of the camp, the entire preseason due to

695
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 5: his injury. He didn't make his debut until Week six. Now,

696
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 5: the one thing is, you know, having the new coaching

697
00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:21,720
Speaker 5: staff under Sean Payton could hurt dulcuch because there's a

698
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:24,320
Speaker 5: chance Albert Oh, you know, could get back in the mix.

699
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:28,600
Speaker 2: Oh I forgot he existed, right yeah, literally, literally, we

700
00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:31,160
Speaker 2: just we just blanked him out of our spreadsheet last year.

701
00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:33,440
Speaker 5: But you know, Sean Payton might be like, hey, I

702
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:35,400
Speaker 5: like this guy. Let's give him thirty percent routes run

703
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:38,640
Speaker 5: a game or something. They also brought in Adam Shroutman.

704
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:41,280
Speaker 5: You know, you know, I wouldn't write him quite off yet,

705
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:43,440
Speaker 5: but at the end of the day, I think overall

706
00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:46,480
Speaker 5: the new coaching staff should help Dulsuch because you know,

707
00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 5: I don't need to tell you, but Russell Wilson struggled

708
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:52,800
Speaker 5: last year, and he struggled to find Dulcuch wide open

709
00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 5: at times it was infuriating. So you know, if the

710
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 5: coaching staff is able to fix the broken Russell Wilson

711
00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:01,280
Speaker 5: we saw last year, that could only helped Dulceuch. So

712
00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 5: I think, you know, I love Dulsuch heading in his

713
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:06,800
Speaker 5: rookie season. He gave me, you know, TJ. Hawkins and

714
00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:10,200
Speaker 5: vibes at UCLA, so he could be even better in

715
00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:11,480
Speaker 5: he or two. So the fact that we can get

716
00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:14,319
Speaker 5: him a tight end seventeen is criminal. So I love

717
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:15,319
Speaker 5: getting him there right now.

718
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:18,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you kind of hit on it like they did.

719
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 2: I did kind of note that that Troutman acquisition, I think,

720
00:34:21,640 --> 00:34:25,279
Speaker 2: because that was the one kind of frustrating thing with

721
00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 2: the Saints last year was that even when Juwan Johnson

722
00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:30,680
Speaker 2: was playing well, Troutman was mixing into like thirty forty

723
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:33,480
Speaker 2: percent of the snaps and so was Taysom Hill, so

724
00:34:33,480 --> 00:34:34,840
Speaker 2: there was like a three man rotation.

725
00:34:34,960 --> 00:34:36,919
Speaker 3: So that is something I think to watch.

726
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:41,719
Speaker 2: But it's kind of this tight end, like just all

727
00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:45,399
Speaker 2: the tight ends outside the top five guys or really

728
00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 2: outside the top ten if you want to get you know,

729
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:49,719
Speaker 2: if you want to include some of the low end guys,

730
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:51,719
Speaker 2: but it's just ugly. So you got to go with

731
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:54,360
Speaker 2: talent and upside. And I do think del Such is

732
00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:57,120
Speaker 2: one of the more talented receiving tight ends that you

733
00:34:57,160 --> 00:34:59,200
Speaker 2: can get at this point to draft any We have

734
00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:01,759
Speaker 2: seen him play a large percentage of snap so it's

735
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:04,920
Speaker 2: not something else out of the question here, But yeah,

736
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:05,880
Speaker 2: we just have to monitor.

737
00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:06,600
Speaker 3: You know, is.

738
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 2: Troutman gonna kind of be like the main blocker be

739
00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:11,480
Speaker 2: on an early downs more? How is that going to

740
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 2: kind of shake out? But yeah, as far from a

741
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:17,160
Speaker 2: talent perspective, yeah, he's one of the few guys that

742
00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:20,160
Speaker 2: I think is worth taking a shot on for me.

743
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:23,680
Speaker 2: The other guy I'm going with is IRV Smith Junior.

744
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:26,560
Speaker 2: He's the tight end twenty two right now. And you know,

745
00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:29,480
Speaker 2: again like this this as you get down here in

746
00:35:29,520 --> 00:35:32,799
Speaker 2: these tight end ranks, it gets ugly. So you know,

747
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 2: I don't even think Smith necessarily has top five upside

748
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 2: or anything like that, but I do think he will

749
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:42,680
Speaker 2: beat this ADP as long as he's healthy. Jack Taylor said,

750
00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 2: they expect Smith to play that hayden Hurst role that

751
00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:48,440
Speaker 2: you know, they let Hurst go, he went to Carolina.

752
00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:50,560
Speaker 2: Now they got a hole as far as their their

753
00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:53,359
Speaker 2: receiving tight end. So he's a tight end twenty two.

754
00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:57,239
Speaker 2: The starting Bengal tight end last year finished above tight

755
00:35:57,320 --> 00:36:00,840
Speaker 2: end twenty two in eleven of sixteen, or sixty nine percent,

756
00:36:01,120 --> 00:36:03,399
Speaker 2: and they had you know, top twenty in ten ten

757
00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:06,080
Speaker 2: of the sixteen or sixty three percent. So you should

758
00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:09,760
Speaker 2: beat this ADP with earth Smith as long as he's healthy.

759
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:13,279
Speaker 2: And the Bengal tight end's got somewhat unlucky last year

760
00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:17,120
Speaker 2: they only had three touchdowns. As you know, the starting

761
00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:20,440
Speaker 2: Titan only had three touchdowns combined over those sixteen weeks,

762
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:23,680
Speaker 2: and hayden Hurst only had two. But they would routinely

763
00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:26,680
Speaker 2: catch you know, four, four or five balls in the games.

764
00:36:26,719 --> 00:36:29,200
Speaker 2: And Smith does have that kind of talent. And even

765
00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:30,960
Speaker 2: though it seems like he's been in kind of a

766
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:33,200
Speaker 2: guy who's been disappointing us for a while.

767
00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:36,000
Speaker 3: Now, he's still only twenty five. I believe it is.

768
00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:38,760
Speaker 2: So he's got some he's young, he's got some talent,

769
00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:40,680
Speaker 2: and they're going to give him a shot to play

770
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:42,279
Speaker 2: this this starting role.

771
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:45,040
Speaker 3: So I do think he beats his ADP.

772
00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:48,600
Speaker 2: In his projection on any given week that he's healthy,

773
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:50,719
Speaker 2: is gonna is going to beat that ADP. It's just

774
00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 2: Kenny finally stay healthy because he's been. He missed four

775
00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:59,480
Speaker 2: games in twenty twenty and then the entire twenty twenty

776
00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:02,920
Speaker 2: one season, and then missed half the year last year.

777
00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:04,480
Speaker 3: So it is somewhat of a question mark.

778
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:07,120
Speaker 2: I get that, probably maybe a little safer in redraft,

779
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:10,600
Speaker 2: but you know, he's he's a good candidate to as

780
00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:11,240
Speaker 2: long as he's.

781
00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:12,960
Speaker 3: On a field, he should beat this ADP easily.

782
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:14,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly.

783
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:16,720
Speaker 5: If he stays healthy, he should be a top twenty

784
00:37:17,680 --> 00:37:19,919
Speaker 5: tight end. But that's that's why I love Hayden Hurst

785
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:22,440
Speaker 5: heading into last season. This time last year, he was

786
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:24,280
Speaker 5: like tight end thirty three or something.

787
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:24,879
Speaker 1: It was a joke.

788
00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:28,560
Speaker 5: But the one hidden upside with you know, Irv Smith

789
00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 5: as the Bengals tight end now is if Jamar Chase

790
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:35,040
Speaker 5: or T Higgins or Tyler Boyd ever miss time, he

791
00:37:35,120 --> 00:37:38,800
Speaker 5: moves up to you know, the third target in the offense.

792
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:40,759
Speaker 5: So that that's kind of where hayden Hurst had his

793
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:42,319
Speaker 5: spike weeks last year, so you kind of know when

794
00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 5: you're gonna get those spiked weeks.

795
00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:44,359
Speaker 1: So he's a.

796
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:47,560
Speaker 5: Great you know, flyer in best Ball and he's sneaking

797
00:37:47,560 --> 00:37:49,879
Speaker 5: in redraft leagues. If you want to just punt tight end,

798
00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:51,840
Speaker 5: take him to begin the season while he's healthy, and

799
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:52,400
Speaker 5: if he gets.

800
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:54,919
Speaker 1: Hurt, you could drop him. But yeah, I love where

801
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:55,640
Speaker 1: he's going right now.

802
00:37:56,480 --> 00:37:58,320
Speaker 3: All right, what about overvalue tight ends.

803
00:37:59,000 --> 00:38:01,520
Speaker 5: I'm gonna go with an E one here. It's Dawson

804
00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:05,280
Speaker 5: Knox at tight end fifteen. Again, the explanation is pretty simple.

805
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:07,960
Speaker 5: The Bills drafted Dalton kon Kid in the first round,

806
00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:11,880
Speaker 5: so that was obviously just a massive blow to knocks value.

807
00:38:12,239 --> 00:38:15,080
Speaker 5: You know, tight end fifteen is way too high for him. Now,

808
00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:17,720
Speaker 5: Knocks may play enough and could still be a factor

809
00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:18,480
Speaker 5: in the red zone.

810
00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:21,160
Speaker 1: So I think Tim Kaid, you know, at the tight end.

811
00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:23,560
Speaker 5: Eleven tight end twelve range might be a little bit

812
00:38:23,600 --> 00:38:26,400
Speaker 5: too high for him as well, which which sucks because

813
00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:29,480
Speaker 5: this is a situation where you want to invest in

814
00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:32,560
Speaker 5: the Bills passing attack as much as possible, but it's

815
00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:36,480
Speaker 5: so diceier now projecting these tight ends that as of now,

816
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 5: I'd rather take other tight ends in this range. I

817
00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:41,319
Speaker 5: think both these guys are probably too expensive. But this

818
00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:43,520
Speaker 5: is one of those things where during the offseason, you know,

819
00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 5: heading into the season, this is going to be pretty

820
00:38:46,600 --> 00:38:49,160
Speaker 5: vuluatable projecting these guys. But as of now, I think

821
00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:51,080
Speaker 5: I'm staying away from Knocks at tight end fifteen.

822
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:54,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, he just you know, he's never really

823
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:58,160
Speaker 2: been able to kind of be a true like needle mover.

824
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:00,719
Speaker 2: Like I think he puts up good numbers because he's

825
00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:01,240
Speaker 2: in this.

826
00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:02,600
Speaker 3: Josh Allen offense.

827
00:39:03,040 --> 00:39:05,840
Speaker 2: Uh, but I do agree he might not his plans

828
00:39:05,840 --> 00:39:08,520
Speaker 2: I might not change a ton because I did hear

829
00:39:08,560 --> 00:39:11,360
Speaker 2: that they are kind of looking at Kinkaid like a

830
00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:15,359
Speaker 2: slot receiver, so that could be interesting and that that

831
00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:17,920
Speaker 2: could be more bad news for a guy like Khaliosha

832
00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:22,640
Speaker 2: Kir potentially, so we got to monitor that. But either way,

833
00:39:22,680 --> 00:39:24,880
Speaker 2: I mean, it wasn't like Dawson Knox was doing was

834
00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:26,799
Speaker 2: doing much even last year. He had like that one

835
00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:29,680
Speaker 2: good year and then you know it kind of kind

836
00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:30,920
Speaker 2: of went came back down to earth a.

837
00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:33,359
Speaker 3: Little bit last year was very inconsistent.

838
00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:37,560
Speaker 2: Uh yeah, for me, I'm going Darren Waller, That's what

839
00:39:37,640 --> 00:39:40,160
Speaker 2: I was talking about, tight end six. I do not

840
00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:43,520
Speaker 2: want to invest in Darren Waller at tight end six.

841
00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:45,600
Speaker 2: I do not want to invest it at a tight

842
00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 2: end at that point in the draft. I just think

843
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:53,399
Speaker 2: that you know, we've seen historically after these top few guys, Uh,

844
00:39:53,480 --> 00:39:55,200
Speaker 2: you know a lot of these tight ends in that

845
00:39:55,360 --> 00:40:00,200
Speaker 2: you know, five, six, seven range, they tend to over underperform.

846
00:40:00,320 --> 00:40:02,920
Speaker 2: And Waller just to me is I mean, it's got

847
00:40:03,360 --> 00:40:04,760
Speaker 2: the warning signs are everywhere.

848
00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:06,800
Speaker 3: The last three years, his.

849
00:40:06,880 --> 00:40:08,799
Speaker 2: Yards per route have gone from two point three to

850
00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:11,560
Speaker 2: one point seven to one point six. His targets per

851
00:40:11,600 --> 00:40:14,920
Speaker 2: route twenty seven percent to twenty four percent to seventeen

852
00:40:15,000 --> 00:40:18,560
Speaker 2: percent last year, which is a big warning sign. He's

853
00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:20,880
Speaker 2: thirty one years old. He's missed at least six games

854
00:40:21,120 --> 00:40:23,520
Speaker 2: each of the past two years, and those are that

855
00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:27,960
Speaker 2: was after two years of huge workloads. So I don't

856
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:30,040
Speaker 2: you know, I don't know if his body is just

857
00:40:30,400 --> 00:40:33,279
Speaker 2: it can hold up. And you know, his red zone

858
00:40:33,280 --> 00:40:35,319
Speaker 2: efficiency has been going down each of the last three

859
00:40:35,400 --> 00:40:39,640
Speaker 2: years twenty seven percent touchdown rate to fifteen percent to

860
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:40,360
Speaker 2: nine percent.

861
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:41,759
Speaker 3: Last year, and that's just.

862
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:44,120
Speaker 2: Not He is never a big touchdown guy, averaged only

863
00:40:44,160 --> 00:40:47,560
Speaker 2: point three per game over the last four years combined.

864
00:40:47,719 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 2: And he's coming to an offense that had seventeen passing

865
00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:54,000
Speaker 2: touchdowns in seventeen games last year. So you know, obviously

866
00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:56,600
Speaker 2: he's gonna help Daniel Jones, but I don't see him

867
00:40:56,600 --> 00:41:00,279
Speaker 2: coming in and just being this super target high that

868
00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:02,880
Speaker 2: he was in Vegas. I think the Giants have kind

869
00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:05,640
Speaker 2: of shown in his stable offense that you know, they're

870
00:41:05,680 --> 00:41:07,480
Speaker 2: they're kind of willing to spread it around. I mean,

871
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:09,680
Speaker 2: if you just look at what they're doing at wide receiver,

872
00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:13,799
Speaker 2: they have like five six guys that could legitimately, you know,

873
00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:15,160
Speaker 2: start for them at this point.

874
00:41:15,200 --> 00:41:16,640
Speaker 3: And I think Waller, I don't.

875
00:41:16,680 --> 00:41:18,799
Speaker 2: I think he's going to be more of a kind

876
00:41:18,840 --> 00:41:22,600
Speaker 2: of a receiving specialist and he's not going to be

877
00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:25,239
Speaker 2: in as like a true every down tight end that's

878
00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:27,319
Speaker 2: going to block on early downs and things like that.

879
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:28,720
Speaker 3: I think they're still going to use.

880
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:33,279
Speaker 2: Bellinger, So yeah, I think Waller. I know it's you know,

881
00:41:33,320 --> 00:41:35,799
Speaker 2: they're tight end falls off quick, but I just think

882
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:38,440
Speaker 2: it's too high to be investing in the position if

883
00:41:38,480 --> 00:41:42,080
Speaker 2: you're not getting like a guaranteed, you know, locked in

884
00:41:42,640 --> 00:41:44,560
Speaker 2: stud tight end, and I don't think Waller is that

885
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:47,080
Speaker 2: at at you know, the other side of thirty anymore.

886
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:48,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly.

887
00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:50,479
Speaker 5: And you know, when it comes to projecting this team,

888
00:41:50,520 --> 00:41:53,839
Speaker 5: Waller well probably be the top target. I think he'll

889
00:41:53,880 --> 00:41:56,279
Speaker 5: be Daniel Drone's top target. But there's just not that

890
00:41:56,360 --> 00:41:58,680
Speaker 5: many passing yards or rushing yards to go around. Like

891
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:02,600
Speaker 5: you alluded to, there's like forty seven slot receivers on

892
00:42:02,600 --> 00:42:04,319
Speaker 5: this team right now. It'll be interesting to see how

893
00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:07,120
Speaker 5: that shakes out, but he'll have some competition for targets.

894
00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:09,400
Speaker 5: But the thing with Waller, as you mentioned, you know,

895
00:42:09,440 --> 00:42:11,239
Speaker 5: he just can't stay healthy right now. And I think

896
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:13,280
Speaker 5: a lot of people forget he was a late bloomer.

897
00:42:13,719 --> 00:42:15,800
Speaker 5: He didn't really come on until his like age twenty

898
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:18,239
Speaker 5: seven season. So yeah, like he said, he's gonna be

899
00:42:18,239 --> 00:42:20,600
Speaker 5: thirty one when the season starts, I think his body

900
00:42:20,680 --> 00:42:23,880
Speaker 5: is breaking down and hasn't been able to you know,

901
00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:25,920
Speaker 5: return from what seemed like simple injuries.

902
00:42:25,920 --> 00:42:27,399
Speaker 1: So I've made a note on that.

903
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:30,319
Speaker 5: But yeah, like I don't really see the peel here.

904
00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:34,120
Speaker 5: He has a low floor, given his injury history, lowish upside,

905
00:42:34,200 --> 00:42:36,279
Speaker 5: so yeah, tight end six is a bit rich for me.

906
00:42:36,680 --> 00:42:38,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, and he's going like that's not just tight end six,

907
00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:41,640
Speaker 2: that's like tight end six in like pick fifty to

908
00:42:41,960 --> 00:42:44,719
Speaker 2: sixty something, you know, like that's that's a top five

909
00:42:44,719 --> 00:42:47,040
Speaker 2: to six round pick. That's I just don't want to

910
00:42:47,080 --> 00:42:50,440
Speaker 2: tight end that period. But who else he got for

911
00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:51,720
Speaker 2: overvalued guys.

912
00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:56,360
Speaker 5: I think Cole Comet at tight end thirteen is a

913
00:42:56,400 --> 00:42:56,879
Speaker 5: bit rich.

914
00:42:57,360 --> 00:42:58,160
Speaker 1: You know, last year we.

915
00:42:58,120 --> 00:43:01,080
Speaker 5: Finally saw him, he started to score touch downs with

916
00:43:01,160 --> 00:43:05,040
Speaker 5: Jimmy Graham gone. He scored seven touchdowns. But I think

917
00:43:05,040 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 5: he's gonna regress. I'm projecting him close were a five

918
00:43:07,600 --> 00:43:10,080
Speaker 5: this year just the Bears. You know, you can't project

919
00:43:10,160 --> 00:43:13,719
Speaker 5: him to throw too many passing yards, too many touchdowns

920
00:43:13,880 --> 00:43:14,720
Speaker 5: with Justin Field.

921
00:43:14,800 --> 00:43:15,399
Speaker 1: So I think with.

922
00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:19,080
Speaker 5: The added competition for targets this year, with DJ Moore

923
00:43:19,960 --> 00:43:22,760
Speaker 5: in the mix, now a full season of Chase Clackpool,

924
00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:25,319
Speaker 5: I think, you know, Claypool will be more integrated in.

925
00:43:25,280 --> 00:43:26,319
Speaker 1: The offense in year two.

926
00:43:26,960 --> 00:43:28,920
Speaker 5: That doesn't vote all for Comet, who you kind of

927
00:43:29,040 --> 00:43:32,120
Speaker 5: need him to get that massive volume because, like I said,

928
00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:35,040
Speaker 5: this offense doesn't really produce that. So I think tight

929
00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:37,840
Speaker 5: end thirteen is a bit rich just given his limited

930
00:43:37,880 --> 00:43:41,200
Speaker 5: ceiling and you know, lower floor with with so many

931
00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:43,600
Speaker 5: other you know guys in this mix, and DJ Moore

932
00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:46,239
Speaker 5: I think will clearly be the number one target in

933
00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:48,520
Speaker 5: this offense. So that that's why I'm bumping Comet down

934
00:43:48,520 --> 00:43:51,000
Speaker 5: and tight end thirteen. That is just a terrible you

935
00:43:51,000 --> 00:43:52,520
Speaker 5: know range to take a guy like Comet.

936
00:43:53,200 --> 00:43:56,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, and a lot of his games came later in

937
00:43:56,280 --> 00:43:59,640
Speaker 2: the year. Darnold Mooney was out too. Moony Mooney should

938
00:43:59,640 --> 00:44:02,480
Speaker 2: be back Quaypool, maybe more integrated into the offense so

939
00:44:02,520 --> 00:44:05,759
Speaker 2: he could be the you know, number four target. And

940
00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:08,480
Speaker 2: last year he only averaged four targets a game and

941
00:44:08,560 --> 00:44:11,600
Speaker 2: two point nine catches. His catches, his catches and yards

942
00:44:11,640 --> 00:44:13,600
Speaker 2: went down from twenty twenty one.

943
00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:17,160
Speaker 3: So yeah, it there the warning signs there.

944
00:44:17,160 --> 00:44:18,920
Speaker 2: But like I said, this is this is why all

945
00:44:18,960 --> 00:44:22,000
Speaker 2: the tight ends are just ugly this year, because I mean, like,

946
00:44:22,120 --> 00:44:23,799
Speaker 2: you know, there's only so many guys that we could

947
00:44:23,840 --> 00:44:25,920
Speaker 2: be low on and then it's like you gotta take somebody,

948
00:44:25,960 --> 00:44:28,960
Speaker 2: right But uh, yeah, I agree. I think cometas is

949
00:44:28,960 --> 00:44:31,720
Speaker 2: a little overvide Like I'll take o'conko who goes after

950
00:44:31,800 --> 00:44:33,359
Speaker 2: him usually over him.

951
00:44:33,680 --> 00:44:34,960
Speaker 3: I just think the upside is higher.

952
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:39,520
Speaker 2: And the other guy for me that's overvalued is Mike

953
00:44:39,560 --> 00:44:43,000
Speaker 2: Gaesicki's going to tight end nineteen this He's not going

954
00:44:43,080 --> 00:44:44,280
Speaker 2: to finish tighten nineteen.

955
00:44:44,600 --> 00:44:47,200
Speaker 3: It's like going to the Patriots. It's just not going

956
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:47,640
Speaker 3: to happen.

957
00:44:47,800 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 2: You know, he was in on fifty five percent of

958
00:44:50,719 --> 00:44:53,399
Speaker 2: the routes for Miami last year. He finishes a tight

959
00:44:53,480 --> 00:44:56,359
Speaker 2: end thirty four in Fantasy points per game. Now he's

960
00:44:56,360 --> 00:44:59,400
Speaker 2: going to New England and he's probably taken over that

961
00:44:59,480 --> 00:45:02,719
Speaker 2: John news Smith role. You know, I know they're not

962
00:45:02,760 --> 00:45:04,560
Speaker 2: exactly the same player, but John who was a guy

963
00:45:04,560 --> 00:45:06,439
Speaker 2: that he didn't block as much there. He was more

964
00:45:06,840 --> 00:45:09,239
Speaker 2: in there for receiving and that's that's that was only

965
00:45:09,320 --> 00:45:12,840
Speaker 2: about you know, thirty to thirty five percent of the

966
00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:15,440
Speaker 2: routes per game. And that kind of makes sense if

967
00:45:15,440 --> 00:45:19,120
Speaker 2: you look at the salary he took this year has

968
00:45:19,160 --> 00:45:22,000
Speaker 2: about three and a half million guaranteed. He was coming

969
00:45:22,040 --> 00:45:23,160
Speaker 2: off a year he I think it was he was

970
00:45:23,160 --> 00:45:25,319
Speaker 2: playing on the tag if I'm not mistaken, he was

971
00:45:25,320 --> 00:45:27,560
Speaker 2: making ten point nine mil, so he settled for a

972
00:45:27,600 --> 00:45:29,920
Speaker 2: three point five guaranteed. I think he gets up to

973
00:45:30,239 --> 00:45:34,120
Speaker 2: another mill or so with incentives. But you know, that's

974
00:45:34,160 --> 00:45:36,279
Speaker 2: that's how they see him his value this year.

975
00:45:36,320 --> 00:45:37,880
Speaker 3: It's it's it's he. I don't think he's.

976
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:40,520
Speaker 2: Going to be the starter over a hundred Henry because

977
00:45:40,520 --> 00:45:42,280
Speaker 2: he can't block. That's why he fell out of favor

978
00:45:42,760 --> 00:45:46,279
Speaker 2: in Miami. So you know he's in this Patriot team.

979
00:45:46,719 --> 00:45:48,879
Speaker 2: They're already a nightmare to predict on a week two

980
00:45:48,880 --> 00:45:52,480
Speaker 2: week basis, you know, with all their receivers whopping in

981
00:45:52,520 --> 00:45:54,520
Speaker 2: and out, and I know, I mean Matt Patricia's gone.

982
00:45:54,520 --> 00:45:57,000
Speaker 2: So that that's that's that's the only good thing about

983
00:45:57,480 --> 00:46:00,320
Speaker 2: I think for their offense in terms of maybe maybe

984
00:46:00,400 --> 00:46:02,400
Speaker 2: they get some go back to what was working a

985
00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:05,319
Speaker 2: little more in twenty twenty one. But yeah, I think

986
00:46:05,320 --> 00:46:10,239
Speaker 2: he's going to be a kind of specialist, a receiving specialist,

987
00:46:10,520 --> 00:46:12,560
Speaker 2: and he's not going to be in nearly even as

988
00:46:12,600 --> 00:46:15,080
Speaker 2: much as he was last year for the Dolphins. So yeah,

989
00:46:15,160 --> 00:46:17,160
Speaker 2: Gasicki Titan nineteen way too at.

990
00:46:17,360 --> 00:46:19,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was not a fan of this Atlantic spot.

991
00:46:19,480 --> 00:46:21,319
Speaker 5: And you know, Gasiki is still one of the better

992
00:46:21,400 --> 00:46:23,840
Speaker 5: pass catching tight ends in the league. So I was hoping,

993
00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:27,160
Speaker 5: you know, the Cowboys or the Lions, you know, before

994
00:46:27,160 --> 00:46:28,480
Speaker 5: the draft, So Bengals.

995
00:46:28,520 --> 00:46:32,040
Speaker 3: Bengals, you could have played that that Hayden hurst row perfectly.

996
00:46:32,239 --> 00:46:33,440
Speaker 1: Oh that perfect.

997
00:46:33,440 --> 00:46:35,719
Speaker 5: So yeah, it's a it's a bummer because you know

998
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:39,959
Speaker 5: on the Patriots, you know the area of Hunter Henry there,

999
00:46:40,000 --> 00:46:42,319
Speaker 5: so's it's a tough situation. So yeah, I agree right

1000
00:46:42,360 --> 00:46:45,719
Speaker 5: now he's my tight end twenty two and even that

1001
00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:48,240
Speaker 5: seems a bit high, but that that's just the all situation.

1002
00:46:48,600 --> 00:46:50,759
Speaker 5: Just I don't really see the upset in taking him here.

1003
00:46:51,320 --> 00:46:54,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, because I think Henry still is like

1004
00:46:54,520 --> 00:46:56,000
Speaker 2: he's going to be the starter. He was the guy

1005
00:46:56,040 --> 00:46:58,560
Speaker 2: he can block and catch, you know, Kasiki only does

1006
00:46:58,560 --> 00:46:58,920
Speaker 2: one of those.

1007
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:01,479
Speaker 5: He'll be the one catching the tuchdowns too, I bet.

1008
00:47:01,520 --> 00:47:03,759
Speaker 5: So Gaseki will be sort of between the twenties and

1009
00:47:03,760 --> 00:47:05,920
Speaker 5: Henry will be you know, the red zone weapons, so

1010
00:47:05,960 --> 00:47:08,480
Speaker 5: that it's just a terrible landing spot for Gaseki.

1011
00:47:09,080 --> 00:47:11,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, and Henry goes after Gasiki in most weeks.

1012
00:47:11,960 --> 00:47:14,080
Speaker 2: So that's actually yeah, not that I think Henry's gonna

1013
00:47:14,080 --> 00:47:16,400
Speaker 2: have this amazing season, but I think Henry's role is

1014
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:20,359
Speaker 2: going to change less than right, all right, That is

1015
00:47:20,400 --> 00:47:24,440
Speaker 2: going to wrap it up for our fantasy flex quarterback

1016
00:47:24,480 --> 00:47:26,360
Speaker 2: and tight end Stockwatch episode.

1017
00:47:26,480 --> 00:47:27,760
Speaker 3: We will have our.

1018
00:47:29,239 --> 00:47:32,960
Speaker 2: Running back episode next week and wide receivers after that,

1019
00:47:33,160 --> 00:47:35,640
Speaker 2: so be sure to keep checking back to the channel.

1020
00:47:35,680 --> 00:47:38,080
Speaker 2: You can find Sean on Twitter at the Underscore Odds

1021
00:47:38,080 --> 00:47:40,680
Speaker 2: Maker and me at Chris Raybond, and you can find

1022
00:47:40,760 --> 00:47:43,440
Speaker 2: us at those same handles on a free award winning

1023
00:47:43,520 --> 00:47:48,280
Speaker 2: Action Network app or Actionnetwork dot com as well.

1024
00:47:48,920 --> 00:47:53,080
Speaker 3: So next time, let's get this money.

1025
00:47:57,000 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble respond possibly if you

1026
00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:03,680
Speaker 2: or someone you care about has a gambling problem.

1027
00:48:03,960 --> 00:48:06,960
Speaker 3: Help is available twenty four seven at one eight hundred

1028
00:48:07,000 --> 00:48:07,440
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