1 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to What Goes Up, a weekly markets podcast. 2 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:20,160 Speaker 1: My name is Mike Reagan. I'm a senior editor at 3 00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:23,079 Speaker 1: Bloomberg and humble Down a higher across asset reporter with 4 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg at This week on the show, well, Wall Street 5 00:00:27,040 --> 00:00:30,200 Speaker 1: has become obsessed with trying to figure out whether the 6 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:33,800 Speaker 1: US economy will fall into a recession or whether it's 7 00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:38,120 Speaker 1: already in one. Certain economic data points have weakened, Inflation 8 00:00:38,240 --> 00:00:42,559 Speaker 1: remains sky high, so is a recession inevitable? And how 9 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:46,400 Speaker 1: much have the markets already discounted a potential recession. We'll 10 00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:49,800 Speaker 1: get into it with a senior markets analyst in London, 11 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:52,800 Speaker 1: but first, Viltani, you need to catch me up. I've 12 00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:55,400 Speaker 1: been off all week until Thursday. What did I miss? 13 00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:59,400 Speaker 1: As they say, well, all of the new Bloomberg interns started, 14 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:01,920 Speaker 1: and uh I added a bunch of them on LinkedIn 15 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:05,560 Speaker 1: or they added me and I accepted. You did you 16 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:09,399 Speaker 1: disrubbing in there? We already have the interns all in 17 00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:12,479 Speaker 1: your professional network. Yeah, they're not even professionals yet, they're 18 00:01:12,520 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 1: just interns and they're and you allow them in your 19 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:17,759 Speaker 1: professional network. I did. Yeah, I'm getting along with them 20 00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:21,480 Speaker 1: really really well. So we're LinkedIn friends. Welcome to all 21 00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg interns and uh, I'm happy to have you 22 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:30,480 Speaker 1: in my network. Wow, that's amazing for listeners who haven't 23 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:32,680 Speaker 1: been paying attention to a kind of refuses to allow 24 00:01:32,720 --> 00:01:35,840 Speaker 1: me into her professional network on LinkedIn. Yet all the 25 00:01:35,840 --> 00:01:39,640 Speaker 1: interns are admitted right away. Yeah, they just started I 26 00:01:39,680 --> 00:01:42,319 Speaker 1: think like three or four days ago. So if I 27 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:45,920 Speaker 1: were to go back and restart as an intern, would 28 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:48,560 Speaker 1: you would you let me in? I think so? Yeah, 29 00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:51,760 Speaker 1: it depends. It depends like would we be working together? 30 00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:55,240 Speaker 1: What kind of work would you be producing? But yeah, 31 00:01:55,520 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 1: I think so. Now it's it's too late for you 32 00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:02,880 Speaker 1: to that's I'm too old to be an intern. That 33 00:02:03,080 --> 00:02:04,800 Speaker 1: that's the bottom line. I guess do you know who 34 00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:08,120 Speaker 1: else is in my on my LinkedIn network? I bet 35 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:11,080 Speaker 1: our this week's guest. Yeah, this week with this week's 36 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 1: guest is also part of my LinkedIn network. I want 37 00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:17,520 Speaker 1: to welcome Fiona Sencoda. She's the senior financial markets analyst 38 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:22,200 Speaker 1: at City Index. Welcome Fiona, Hey, how're they going? Welcome 39 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:25,360 Speaker 1: to the show, Fyota, and welcome to vil Donna's professional network. 40 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 1: It's a very exclusive club, clearly. Uh oh yes, only 41 00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:35,960 Speaker 1: some people being excluded. But I wanted to start UM 42 00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:39,919 Speaker 1: by asking you a little bit about Cindy City Index itself. 43 00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:41,480 Speaker 1: I mean, we definitely want to get your take on 44 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:44,240 Speaker 1: the on the market outlook and everything. But for US 45 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:48,000 Speaker 1: listeners who aren't uh familiar with City Index, UM, I'm 46 00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:50,840 Speaker 1: kind of fascinating because you you offer some types of 47 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:53,520 Speaker 1: trading that UM, I think many of our U S 48 00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:56,959 Speaker 1: listeners are not familiar with, such as spread betting and 49 00:02:57,320 --> 00:03:01,120 Speaker 1: CFD trading. Could you just explain to people who aren't 50 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:03,320 Speaker 1: familiar with that type of trading what it is and 51 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:07,120 Speaker 1: how City Index is involved. Yeah, of course, So I 52 00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:12,000 Speaker 1: mean DFD trading and spread trading. They are trading derivatives, 53 00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:15,960 Speaker 1: and the idea is that they're traded on margins. So basically, 54 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:19,120 Speaker 1: what that means is that when you're taking out a position, 55 00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 1: you don't actually own the position. You're actually making or 56 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:29,880 Speaker 1: taking an opinion on where you think the price movement 57 00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:32,480 Speaker 1: is going. So you're not owning it like you would 58 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:34,840 Speaker 1: a stopper a share. If you're going to actually buy 59 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:38,240 Speaker 1: stocks and shares, you're actually making or losing money on 60 00:03:38,280 --> 00:03:41,880 Speaker 1: the price movement. And so what that means is that 61 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:45,120 Speaker 1: you can actually short the market just as easily as 62 00:03:45,160 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 1: you can go along the market, which is brilliant in 63 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:51,480 Speaker 1: times of high volatility when you need to get some 64 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:55,760 Speaker 1: heading strategies going. And also for example, in bear market 65 00:03:56,680 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 1: whatever being an industry can become really I mean, there 66 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 1: are a couple of things to watch out for it. 67 00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:07,920 Speaker 1: I said, it's traded on margins. So what that means 68 00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:11,080 Speaker 1: there is you're actually just putting forward a deposit. You 69 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:13,720 Speaker 1: don't need to put forward the whole value of the 70 00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 1: trade that you're taking out. Now, that could be very 71 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:19,520 Speaker 1: advantageous in the sense that you only need to put 72 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:22,920 Speaker 1: forward like a percentage of the value of your trade, 73 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:26,320 Speaker 1: but you make losses or gains as if it was 74 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:31,000 Speaker 1: the full position tide. Brilliant when it goes in your favor, 75 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 1: not so good when it goes against you. You've got 76 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:37,280 Speaker 1: to be really hot on your risk management. You've got 77 00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:40,240 Speaker 1: to keep these ideas, you know, stop losses and and 78 00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 1: and sort of really have a good strategy when you're 79 00:04:42,320 --> 00:04:44,920 Speaker 1: trading the market. You can't just sort of leave it 80 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:47,919 Speaker 1: with the hope that things might turn around, because that 81 00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:51,839 Speaker 1: could get a little bit hairy, right right. I bet 82 00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 1: some of our more active US traders are very jealous 83 00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 1: that that of this type of trading that they can't 84 00:04:58,000 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 1: do in the US, But who knows, maybe someday they'll 85 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:04,880 Speaker 1: all our Um. But are you are the clients a 86 00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:07,680 Speaker 1: sort of a mix of retail and hedge funds and 87 00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:11,000 Speaker 1: whatnot or or what who exactly is uh you know 88 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:14,360 Speaker 1: the client piece? Yea completely, We have an absolute mix, 89 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 1: so you know we can go from We do have newbies, 90 00:05:17,760 --> 00:05:20,560 Speaker 1: complete newbies who have never traded before and they're just 91 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:23,120 Speaker 1: sort of looking to get involved because obviously you can't 92 00:05:23,120 --> 00:05:26,120 Speaker 1: take very small position sizes as well, which is good 93 00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:28,159 Speaker 1: if you're just you know, testing it out and wants 94 00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:30,719 Speaker 1: to see how it all works. Um. And then we 95 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 1: go all the way out. We scouted all the way through, 96 00:05:32,760 --> 00:05:35,240 Speaker 1: so we've got some big clients in there as well. UM. 97 00:05:35,720 --> 00:05:38,240 Speaker 1: So I mean, you know, different news is people using 98 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:41,400 Speaker 1: for different and different institutions have different uses for what 99 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:44,280 Speaker 1: we offer. Um. But yeah, we we we cover the 100 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:47,400 Speaker 1: complete range professional clients as well as as we tell 101 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:50,320 Speaker 1: it just so our listeners are aware and is aware. 102 00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:53,440 Speaker 1: And I actually hung out in London when when I 103 00:05:53,480 --> 00:05:55,080 Speaker 1: was there a couple of weeks ago, and we arranged 104 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:58,279 Speaker 1: the podcast appearance, but I wanted to ask you to 105 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:01,080 Speaker 1: gauge the mood over there and what it's what it's 106 00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:04,280 Speaker 1: actually like. We have the war in Ukraine, we have 107 00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:08,760 Speaker 1: high inflation in the UK and across the Eurozone. Plus 108 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:12,520 Speaker 1: we had Germany this week warning of this contagion from 109 00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:15,159 Speaker 1: Russian gas cuts. So I wanted to ask you to 110 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:17,040 Speaker 1: sort of tell us what it's like, what the mood 111 00:06:17,080 --> 00:06:20,279 Speaker 1: has been like. Yes, I mean it was great catching 112 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:22,440 Speaker 1: up with you. That was so lovely and putting a 113 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:24,719 Speaker 1: pace through a name and a chap so that was 114 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:28,799 Speaker 1: really good fun. But yeah, you know, we're really noticing 115 00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 1: these price rises and I'm sure this is something that 116 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:37,440 Speaker 1: that's really being noticed across the across the social social 117 00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:40,120 Speaker 1: sectors in the UK at the moment. Are those price 118 00:06:40,279 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 1: rises that we've been coming through. Um, you know, inflation 119 00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 1: is really quite high here. It's coming at nine percent, 120 00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:49,760 Speaker 1: it's expected to spring to double digits, were expecting eleven 121 00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:53,599 Speaker 1: in the coming months. Um, And so it's really being 122 00:06:53,640 --> 00:06:56,200 Speaker 1: felt because it's broad based as well food. We have 123 00:06:56,240 --> 00:06:58,960 Speaker 1: a lot of important energies that energy bills are just 124 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:02,400 Speaker 1: going through the real um that's really proving to be 125 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:05,760 Speaker 1: quite a struggle, um for a lot of people, and 126 00:07:05,760 --> 00:07:08,680 Speaker 1: it's putting in this we've got this cost of living crisis, 127 00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:12,520 Speaker 1: UM and we're seeing that there's a lot of strikes 128 00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:15,560 Speaker 1: now where where we've got unions wanting their payers to 129 00:07:15,640 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 1: have more money. We're just in the middle of this 130 00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:21,160 Speaker 1: huge train strike in in the UK at the moment, 131 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:23,360 Speaker 1: and so yeah, you know, most of us are working 132 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:26,600 Speaker 1: from home this week just because it's gonna be impossible 133 00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 1: to get into the office. But this is just one union. 134 00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:31,520 Speaker 1: You know, We've got other unions and workers that are 135 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:35,240 Speaker 1: planning on more strikes because they want higher wages to 136 00:07:35,360 --> 00:07:38,040 Speaker 1: be able to afford and to be able to copen 137 00:07:38,040 --> 00:07:41,920 Speaker 1: this cost of living crisis. But obviously that's just spiraling 138 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:48,720 Speaker 1: into this this inflation spiral and helping everything go up more. So, 139 00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:51,920 Speaker 1: you know, it's a very very difficult place we are 140 00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:54,679 Speaker 1: at the moment. We're expecting it a really tough summer 141 00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 1: as far as walkouts, the concerned, as far as rising 142 00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:01,760 Speaker 1: prices they concerned, and for inflation just keep on going home. 143 00:08:03,520 --> 00:08:05,200 Speaker 1: You know, fid I wanted to ask you about that 144 00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:09,160 Speaker 1: because you know, obviously in the US, um UH President 145 00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 1: Biden has gotten a lot of political heat over the 146 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:15,840 Speaker 1: inflation issue in the US. It doesn't seem correct me 147 00:08:15,880 --> 00:08:17,840 Speaker 1: if I'm wrong. It doesn't seem that maybe Boris john 148 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 1: Johnson is getting as much criticism and blame for inflation. 149 00:08:21,920 --> 00:08:24,120 Speaker 1: Maybe I'm wrong about that. I feel like people are 150 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:28,360 Speaker 1: still fixated on the parties he had during COVID. I 151 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:33,080 Speaker 1: was gonna say, but they're not done with that scandal yet. 152 00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 1: They'll maybe they'll get get to inflation, but it's is 153 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:40,200 Speaker 1: inflation sort of you know, a political risk across the spectrum. 154 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:42,280 Speaker 1: Do you think in Europe to to the leaders and 155 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:47,080 Speaker 1: the leadership parties um because of you know, people expecting 156 00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:48,880 Speaker 1: the government to be able to do something about it. 157 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:52,800 Speaker 1: How are politics sort of factoring into your your thoughts 158 00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:56,920 Speaker 1: on the markets and what inflation is doing to uh 159 00:08:57,280 --> 00:09:00,120 Speaker 1: things like the labor issue you've discussed. You know that 160 00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:04,480 Speaker 1: there isn't as much yet, I say, of a blame 161 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:07,760 Speaker 1: game going on as part as Boris Johnson's concerned. As 162 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 1: he said, you know, we're just all getting over the 163 00:09:09,559 --> 00:09:12,480 Speaker 1: fact that he was over the partying during lockdown. So 164 00:09:12,600 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 1: we're just just trying to get a head around that. 165 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:16,079 Speaker 1: We've had the Queen's do believe there's been quite a 166 00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:18,679 Speaker 1: lot of other things to folks do, but I think 167 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:22,000 Speaker 1: that's starting to change. We've had some by elections where 168 00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 1: he has not been doing so well. We've seen in 169 00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:29,840 Speaker 1: France as well, Macron's having problems getting a majority in parliament. 170 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:32,200 Speaker 1: So you know, I think there is this sort of 171 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:35,680 Speaker 1: it's deeping in there, that there is this sort of 172 00:09:35,760 --> 00:09:40,000 Speaker 1: blame towards the politicians coming in. We just seem at 173 00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:41,920 Speaker 1: the moment, I feel there have been a lot more 174 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 1: blame thrown towards Andrew Bailey, who has been sort of 175 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:50,479 Speaker 1: out defending himself quite vigorously recently, you know, over inflation 176 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:54,000 Speaker 1: and why it suddenly got so out of control and 177 00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:57,440 Speaker 1: why the Bank of England hadn't done anything before. And 178 00:09:57,480 --> 00:10:01,000 Speaker 1: then we've also got Richie snack O Finance, uh, Chance 179 00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:03,720 Speaker 1: of the Exchequer, who has also been sort of drawn 180 00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:06,840 Speaker 1: into this as to what what he's doing where, how 181 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:09,000 Speaker 1: they're going to help out, how they're going to help 182 00:10:09,000 --> 00:10:12,079 Speaker 1: this for a family, um, so that there is sort 183 00:10:12,120 --> 00:10:14,240 Speaker 1: of a bit of a blame game going on. It's 184 00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:17,680 Speaker 1: not really I think heated up properly yet, but I 185 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:20,440 Speaker 1: think it will over the summer, as we have more 186 00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:22,760 Speaker 1: strikes and more people struggle to get to work because 187 00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:24,600 Speaker 1: more people can't afford what they want to be able 188 00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:26,640 Speaker 1: to board. That's when we're really going to start to 189 00:10:26,679 --> 00:10:29,840 Speaker 1: see sort of the politicians come under a lot of heat. 190 00:10:31,840 --> 00:10:34,720 Speaker 1: And I know, Fiona, you also focus on the U 191 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:38,000 Speaker 1: S economy and US markets. We heard from Powell this 192 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 1: week where he sort of came really close to admitting 193 00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:43,400 Speaker 1: that the FED might not be able to engineer the 194 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:46,480 Speaker 1: soft dish lenning that everybody's been hoping for it, and 195 00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:47,960 Speaker 1: wanted to ask you what you make of that and 196 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:50,920 Speaker 1: what you're outlook is in in terms of a recession 197 00:10:50,960 --> 00:10:54,160 Speaker 1: in the US. Yes, so, I mean it was almost 198 00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:58,760 Speaker 1: the first sort of like official acknowledgement that there could 199 00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:00,880 Speaker 1: be a recession in the U earth bright and I 200 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:06,040 Speaker 1: think that was also the market actually behaved quite interestingly 201 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:08,440 Speaker 1: in response to that, because we saw the equities actually 202 00:11:08,440 --> 00:11:12,440 Speaker 1: pick up off the session lowse They didn't close higher, 203 00:11:12,440 --> 00:11:14,400 Speaker 1: but they did try to. But we've seen them pushed 204 00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 1: higher today. But this question on is there going to 205 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:20,800 Speaker 1: be a recession in the US is one that sort 206 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:24,079 Speaker 1: of really dominating the market this week. When you knows 207 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 1: as investors to sort of tussle with that idea of 208 00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:32,280 Speaker 1: more huge great heights from the Fed basis points potentially 209 00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:36,520 Speaker 1: in July and another fifty basis points in September. So yeah, 210 00:11:36,600 --> 00:11:39,040 Speaker 1: that that focus of is there going to be a 211 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:41,520 Speaker 1: recession in the US, and I think the answer is 212 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:46,280 Speaker 1: still unclear. I think the chances of a recession happening 213 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:48,880 Speaker 1: in the US are much more likely now than they 214 00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:53,040 Speaker 1: have been for for a very long time. It's not 215 00:11:53,120 --> 00:11:56,040 Speaker 1: as clear cut in the US. That is in Europe. 216 00:11:56,240 --> 00:11:59,200 Speaker 1: I think in Europe it's almost going to be impossible 217 00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:02,800 Speaker 1: for US to have your recession over this side. Um, 218 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:06,360 Speaker 1: But I think in the US there is still I think, 219 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:11,240 Speaker 1: and a soft landing is optimistic, we'll put it that way. 220 00:12:11,280 --> 00:12:15,520 Speaker 1: So that puts my expectations of a recession probably morving 221 00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:19,280 Speaker 1: moving over sort of over fifty chance at the moment. 222 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:22,160 Speaker 1: But there are a couple of things that the US 223 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:25,480 Speaker 1: economy really does have in its favor, and I think 224 00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:28,320 Speaker 1: that's the leeway in the jobs market. You know, you've 225 00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:31,679 Speaker 1: got such a strong jobs market right now, which is 226 00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:33,840 Speaker 1: obviously does have its down for and the sense that 227 00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:37,360 Speaker 1: it's sort of keeping wages elevated but that does mean 228 00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:40,200 Speaker 1: that there's a lot of leeway, um, you know, gives 229 00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:43,120 Speaker 1: the FED real wiggle room to be able to get 230 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:46,200 Speaker 1: those big hypes in early and I think that's what 231 00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:48,360 Speaker 1: they're going to be looking at doing. So, you know, 232 00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:50,560 Speaker 1: it could be that the jobs market is actually the 233 00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:55,000 Speaker 1: saving grace for the US economy, even though right now 234 00:12:55,120 --> 00:12:58,360 Speaker 1: that might not necessarily see the point seemed to be 235 00:12:58,400 --> 00:13:03,160 Speaker 1: the case, given that it's keeping wages so high. Well, 236 00:13:03,320 --> 00:13:06,040 Speaker 1: how much do you think has already priced into the market. 237 00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:08,320 Speaker 1: I mean, we're looking at a US stock market that's 238 00:13:08,360 --> 00:13:12,480 Speaker 1: down more on the year. Is the worst already priced in? 239 00:13:12,559 --> 00:13:14,440 Speaker 1: Do you think? Or is there a lot more room 240 00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:18,200 Speaker 1: to fall should the outlook deteriorate and we actually get 241 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:23,000 Speaker 1: a contraction in growth. You know, I think the focus, 242 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:25,439 Speaker 1: as I said, was going to be on on the 243 00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:28,120 Speaker 1: job side of things. I think for now. We had 244 00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:30,680 Speaker 1: that big sell off last week when there was that 245 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:33,040 Speaker 1: sort of realization that the FED is going to raise 246 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:36,400 Speaker 1: raise height rates like them to buy basic point and 247 00:13:36,480 --> 00:13:39,240 Speaker 1: they did, um and that sort of you know, when 248 00:13:39,280 --> 00:13:42,040 Speaker 1: we saw some some some big sort of moves down 249 00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:44,400 Speaker 1: and we saw the F ANDP bear market move into 250 00:13:44,400 --> 00:13:48,599 Speaker 1: that bear market I do think there is more downside 251 00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:52,760 Speaker 1: to come, and I think that will be coming when 252 00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:56,440 Speaker 1: we start to see the cooling off in the jobs market. 253 00:13:56,640 --> 00:14:00,080 Speaker 1: That's going to start to get people nervous, that's going 254 00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:03,920 Speaker 1: to get invested a little bit more nervous. Um For now, 255 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:08,160 Speaker 1: we've seen that inflation is high. We know that, we 256 00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:11,439 Speaker 1: know that we've seen that one point five contraction already. 257 00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:14,960 Speaker 1: So I think as far as those maccorrect mimic figures 258 00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:18,560 Speaker 1: are concerned, it's priced in where we are. It's when 259 00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:22,120 Speaker 1: we start to see that that easing in the jobs market. 260 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:25,800 Speaker 1: And today I mean jobless claims, they hag that they've 261 00:14:25,920 --> 00:14:28,440 Speaker 1: just initial claims of just they're still creeping up for 262 00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:31,800 Speaker 1: that five month high. We're not seeing big moves there, 263 00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:35,960 Speaker 1: but there might just be some sense that there could 264 00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:39,280 Speaker 1: be a little bit of sort of easing coming in. 265 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:41,240 Speaker 1: So I think that for me is going to be 266 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:44,680 Speaker 1: like one of the key data points to be really 267 00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:49,600 Speaker 1: watching closely. Are you watching any other indicators besides that? 268 00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:51,360 Speaker 1: I know I talked to a lot of people who 269 00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:54,800 Speaker 1: are looking at technical indicators and so on, and I 270 00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:58,080 Speaker 1: also wanted to ask you to look ahead considering that 271 00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:00,640 Speaker 1: we're talking about you know how much further we could go. 272 00:15:00,920 --> 00:15:03,280 Speaker 1: But what does the second half of the year look 273 00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:06,920 Speaker 1: like now that we now the tune is almost over, okay, 274 00:15:06,920 --> 00:15:09,200 Speaker 1: so you know, as far as the chance they can stand, 275 00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:12,320 Speaker 1: I think the one place that we tend to be 276 00:15:12,400 --> 00:15:15,440 Speaker 1: looking for is movement on the vict right. I think 277 00:15:15,520 --> 00:15:19,400 Speaker 1: historically the Victor has seen a little bit more movement 278 00:15:19,640 --> 00:15:23,400 Speaker 1: when we're sort of getting towards that last part of 279 00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:26,880 Speaker 1: of the bear market and sort of concerns of processions. 280 00:15:26,880 --> 00:15:30,120 Speaker 1: So we haven't really seen that in the Victor yet. 281 00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:32,760 Speaker 1: It's elevated, but it's not up at those levels at 282 00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:35,400 Speaker 1: forty five level, which I think is pretty key to 283 00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:39,200 Speaker 1: be watching out for. And as far as looking out 284 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:42,360 Speaker 1: towards the second half of the year, I mean, I 285 00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:46,920 Speaker 1: think we will start to see inflation cooling. I mean 286 00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:50,240 Speaker 1: if we look ahead and even just next week, not 287 00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:51,760 Speaker 1: as far as we're going, I want to look ahead, 288 00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:55,360 Speaker 1: well said further, We'll start with next week. You know, 289 00:15:55,400 --> 00:16:01,320 Speaker 1: you've got the PC inflation gage and that's fallen now. 290 00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:03,800 Speaker 1: So it was up at six point six and then 291 00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:07,840 Speaker 1: and then came down to three. If that falls again, 292 00:16:08,320 --> 00:16:11,480 Speaker 1: I think that we could start to say that is 293 00:16:11,560 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 1: looking like a friend. And if that's the case, then 294 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:19,440 Speaker 1: that could potentially continue and that is going to be 295 00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:22,480 Speaker 1: a really good place for the market to be watching, Bob. 296 00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:25,720 Speaker 1: So as far as as what to sort of watch 297 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:27,520 Speaker 1: out in the second half of the year, I think 298 00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:33,680 Speaker 1: falling inflation is something that we could potentially be seeing. Also, though, 299 00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:36,040 Speaker 1: I think we're also going to be seeing sort of 300 00:16:36,120 --> 00:16:38,520 Speaker 1: a calling as I said in the in the jobs market. 301 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:40,280 Speaker 1: I think we could expect to see sort of you know, 302 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:43,200 Speaker 1: those non farm payrolls come right down. We could see 303 00:16:43,240 --> 00:16:47,040 Speaker 1: sort of jobless claims start to inch. Hire um. As 304 00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:49,280 Speaker 1: far as that's been said, they're going to be sort 305 00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:51,720 Speaker 1: of the two key areas that I'm going to be 306 00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:54,400 Speaker 1: watching would be inflation and job for the second half 307 00:16:54,440 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 1: of the year. But I think until we've got that 308 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:01,200 Speaker 1: sense of peeking for ation, which has been you know 309 00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:03,640 Speaker 1: this this real sort of bugged for the market. Have 310 00:17:03,760 --> 00:17:06,960 Speaker 1: we passed it? When's it going to come? Until we 311 00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:09,359 Speaker 1: get to there, and I think the markets are going 312 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:18,520 Speaker 1: to struggle for me higher, you know, Funeral. I think 313 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:21,000 Speaker 1: one of the most difficult things for sort of your 314 00:17:21,080 --> 00:17:26,840 Speaker 1: conservative buy and hold investor this year was the the 315 00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:30,399 Speaker 1: correlation between stocks and bonds being so close, you know, 316 00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:34,720 Speaker 1: both falling in tandem. Um. You know, now as we're 317 00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:38,679 Speaker 1: you know, people crossing their fingers and hoping possibly there 318 00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:41,240 Speaker 1: might be a bottom in for for both and and 319 00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:43,199 Speaker 1: they'll both for them up a little bit, you know, 320 00:17:43,280 --> 00:17:46,600 Speaker 1: yields will come down and treasury prices will rise and 321 00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:50,359 Speaker 1: stocks rise. I'm curious how you're thinking about that. How 322 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:53,280 Speaker 1: long can we uh sort of expect the two to 323 00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:57,480 Speaker 1: be correlated? Uh, you know positively we're you know, what 324 00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:00,720 Speaker 1: would it take do you think to sort of get 325 00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:03,680 Speaker 1: them the dcouple again and sort of start moving in 326 00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:06,840 Speaker 1: uppposite directions again. Yeah. I mean it's been a challenge, 327 00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:10,920 Speaker 1: hasn't it. This year has been like really tough. Cash 328 00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:13,640 Speaker 1: is king, That's what it's been. You know. It's been 329 00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:16,120 Speaker 1: that idea of where are you going to look for 330 00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:19,920 Speaker 1: in order to to to be able to to make 331 00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:25,679 Speaker 1: something something from your investment. I think the idea that 332 00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:29,439 Speaker 1: there has or there is now so much in cash 333 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:33,520 Speaker 1: is something that would be favorable for the markets and 334 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:37,399 Speaker 1: seeing that point of change around UM. And I also 335 00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:40,520 Speaker 1: think I generally would expect to see I think a 336 00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:43,959 Speaker 1: movement in bonds before we see the movement in stock. 337 00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:47,159 Speaker 1: So that again is something that I've been looking out for. 338 00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:50,199 Speaker 1: But I don't think with the Yeah, I don't know 339 00:18:50,320 --> 00:18:53,920 Speaker 1: what that event is going to be. Sometimes you see 340 00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:56,639 Speaker 1: that capitulation only where everyone just throws in the towel. 341 00:18:56,680 --> 00:18:59,159 Speaker 1: Then enough enough, you know, take me out before you 342 00:18:59,280 --> 00:19:02,320 Speaker 1: see that botty something out. Whether we'll see that this 343 00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:05,480 Speaker 1: time now, I don't know that's historically the case, um, 344 00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:09,400 Speaker 1: and so but I do think that there is going 345 00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:12,440 Speaker 1: to be a rough ride still to come. I don't 346 00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:15,680 Speaker 1: think it's, as I said, being completely priced and yet 347 00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:19,600 Speaker 1: so I do think volatility is going to remain. And 348 00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:22,080 Speaker 1: also that sort of does mean that having that sort 349 00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:26,400 Speaker 1: of that hedging strategy UM could be really useful for 350 00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:29,080 Speaker 1: these challenging days in the markets, because if you think, well, 351 00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:31,760 Speaker 1: you know, we do a comparison to two years ago, 352 00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:34,639 Speaker 1: by anything, and you're going to make money the market 353 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:38,360 Speaker 1: just went up, you know, we're in that sort of position, 354 00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:42,680 Speaker 1: whereas it's a much more challenging environment at the moment. Yeah, 355 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:45,879 Speaker 1: that that whole notion of capitulation is kind of fascinating. 356 00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:49,080 Speaker 1: I mean, we've seen we've had these you know, down 357 00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:53,320 Speaker 1: to three plus percent days and no one is convinced 358 00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 1: we've seen capitulation. And I guess when you see so many, 359 00:19:56,720 --> 00:19:59,280 Speaker 1: so much vilatility, you really need to see something that's 360 00:19:59,280 --> 00:20:02,480 Speaker 1: even above and beyond what we've seen to really feel 361 00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:04,639 Speaker 1: like capitulation is in. Is that is that kind of 362 00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:07,760 Speaker 1: what everyone's waiting for anything? I think so, I think 363 00:20:07,800 --> 00:20:09,760 Speaker 1: that I think that's why. But as you said, you know, 364 00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:12,680 Speaker 1: we have seen the sort of these big swings, and 365 00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:14,880 Speaker 1: to a degree, we've always got a little bit used 366 00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:18,680 Speaker 1: to it, haven't we. So its yeah, so it's something 367 00:20:18,760 --> 00:20:21,239 Speaker 1: even bigger needs to be happening. And is that going 368 00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:23,840 Speaker 1: to be the moment? I mean, and as we know, 369 00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:27,680 Speaker 1: what historically happens doesn't necessarily mean that it's going to 370 00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:30,560 Speaker 1: happen this time. But you know, if we're trying to 371 00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:34,000 Speaker 1: draw comparisons, and that is what would be expecting, but 372 00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:35,960 Speaker 1: it expects to see that rise in the vix, the 373 00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:40,520 Speaker 1: drop off and then a floor in place. Um when 374 00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:43,520 Speaker 1: that will happen at the moment is quite a difficult 375 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:47,879 Speaker 1: question to answer. But I think we're getting closer, definitely, 376 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:50,359 Speaker 1: and I think by the by the time that we're moving, 377 00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:52,280 Speaker 1: you know, well into the second quarter of the year, 378 00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:56,480 Speaker 1: then we should have been past that. Does that also 379 00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:59,440 Speaker 1: mean it's too early to say that we've seen a 380 00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:04,200 Speaker 1: pea cans? Yeah, I think it's difficult. That's a really 381 00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:06,679 Speaker 1: good question because I think bonds do me before stock, 382 00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 1: so in the sense that we will see that first, 383 00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:12,800 Speaker 1: and we have seen that, You'll have come off in 384 00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:16,280 Speaker 1: the last couple of days pretty in a pretty impressive 385 00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:22,040 Speaker 1: manner um. But yeah, I just for me, there's still 386 00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:24,400 Speaker 1: there's still more to come out. And I think the 387 00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:26,760 Speaker 1: other thing that we need to be aware of it 388 00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:31,639 Speaker 1: is the situation in Russia and Ukraine is I know 389 00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:34,640 Speaker 1: you are in the US are not as closely tired 390 00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:37,840 Speaker 1: as we are in written by any sense of the picture. 391 00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:40,679 Speaker 1: But I think that that is a big anomaly. And 392 00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:43,800 Speaker 1: also the COVID cases in in China. Again, you know, 393 00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:46,399 Speaker 1: we feel that we might have passed that, but we 394 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:49,880 Speaker 1: just don't know when these sort of anonymally are going 395 00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:52,320 Speaker 1: to pop up. So I think that's something that is 396 00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:56,560 Speaker 1: worth just being aware of as well. But yeah, I 397 00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:59,360 Speaker 1: just my feeling is there's a little bit longer to go. 398 00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:02,080 Speaker 1: So we've seen this, but yes, that's what we're watching 399 00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:04,520 Speaker 1: out for, is that that that falling in the yield 400 00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:08,880 Speaker 1: and the peak path thing. Yeah, so so how would 401 00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:11,640 Speaker 1: you sort of position in the stock market these days? 402 00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:15,080 Speaker 1: You know that everyone's wondering if this value our performance 403 00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:17,639 Speaker 1: will last or if you know, tech is sort of 404 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:20,200 Speaker 1: inevitable that will get a big bounce back in tech. 405 00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:22,760 Speaker 1: How are you thinking about sort of you know, to 406 00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,439 Speaker 1: play play the internals of the market. Yeah, you know, 407 00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:28,760 Speaker 1: it's not easy right now. It's definitely not easy, and 408 00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:32,160 Speaker 1: you do have to be much more careful on where 409 00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:34,439 Speaker 1: you're picking, on where you're sticking your money than you 410 00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:37,320 Speaker 1: have had to be for a very long time. And 411 00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:41,680 Speaker 1: I do think that there are some areas of tech 412 00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:47,040 Speaker 1: which really do still stand to outperform as we progress 413 00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:50,720 Speaker 1: through the year. I think sort of cloud areas of tech, 414 00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:54,359 Speaker 1: AI processing, those areas of tech are going to be 415 00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:58,640 Speaker 1: the ones that will be ready to pick up when 416 00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:01,200 Speaker 1: we come the other side. I think it's going to 417 00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:04,320 Speaker 1: be also about sort of positioning yourself to be ready 418 00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:07,600 Speaker 1: for that turnaround. We know that like trying to catch 419 00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:11,159 Speaker 1: it is it is pretty impossible, really, but joy to 420 00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:14,840 Speaker 1: position yourself so that you're ready for when it does come. Um, 421 00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:17,399 Speaker 1: So that would be the particular is And also I 422 00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:22,480 Speaker 1: think other other stocks are going to be consumer staples, UM, 423 00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:26,399 Speaker 1: you know that sort of fairly typical stocks that that 424 00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:29,760 Speaker 1: are sort of you know, what would consider UM where 425 00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:34,840 Speaker 1: consumers still have to go regardless of what's going on. UM. 426 00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:36,919 Speaker 1: That would be sort of the two areas that I 427 00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:39,199 Speaker 1: would be looking And I think when we get to 428 00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:41,639 Speaker 1: the other side of it, that's when you need to 429 00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:45,440 Speaker 1: be in the financials ready to rise those those higher 430 00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:49,000 Speaker 1: rates UM and sort of really benefit from that. But 431 00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:52,399 Speaker 1: just that that threat of recession is just going to 432 00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:56,560 Speaker 1: be weighing on financials for now. Can I also ask 433 00:23:56,640 --> 00:24:00,640 Speaker 1: you about turnings because I feel like just about everybody, 434 00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:04,080 Speaker 1: everybody I talked to says that earnings will still have 435 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:07,800 Speaker 1: to come down, that analysts estimates are way too high 436 00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:12,480 Speaker 1: for what people are expecting will come for the economy 437 00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:14,600 Speaker 1: in the latter half of the year or even into 438 00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:18,200 Speaker 1: I'm wondering what you think or whether or not maybe 439 00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:22,280 Speaker 1: we can see companies continuing to pass on costs and 440 00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:29,520 Speaker 1: and still potentially maybe UM posting solid earnings results. Yeah, 441 00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:31,399 Speaker 1: it's a good question. I think we sort of you know, 442 00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:33,240 Speaker 1: earning well, first of all, how is it almost earning 443 00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:37,040 Speaker 1: season again? Where did that go? Bro. But but you know, 444 00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:40,920 Speaker 1: I think we get this quite often heading into learning season, 445 00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:44,880 Speaker 1: where these questions about is it over are we over 446 00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:48,000 Speaker 1: expecting from the company, And I think that there is 447 00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:51,600 Speaker 1: a good chance that we will get in disappointment um 448 00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:54,400 Speaker 1: coming into these earning seasons. You know it, it's been 449 00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:57,399 Speaker 1: a tough environment for them and it will be I 450 00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:00,520 Speaker 1: think more importantly, the next four thir is going to 451 00:25:00,560 --> 00:25:02,879 Speaker 1: be extremely tough. That's where I think we're going to 452 00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:06,679 Speaker 1: see a lot of the guidance perhaps coming in a 453 00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:09,480 Speaker 1: little bit lower than what we might have been expecting. 454 00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:13,160 Speaker 1: That's I think going to be UM something to watch 455 00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:15,960 Speaker 1: out for. As far as sort of you know, going 456 00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:19,480 Speaker 1: beyond that, I think there will be some some better 457 00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:21,760 Speaker 1: news as we head towards the end of the year, 458 00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:23,399 Speaker 1: but that's a thing quite a long way out. I 459 00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:27,240 Speaker 1: still think we've got to get through the board guidance 460 00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:29,440 Speaker 1: from from the ending season coming up, which is going 461 00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:32,720 Speaker 1: to be I think on the disappointing side. As far 462 00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:35,640 Speaker 1: as you know, price hikes are concern. We know that 463 00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:38,560 Speaker 1: there have been price hikes, they have been passed on. 464 00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:42,000 Speaker 1: We also know that that they're not always successfully being 465 00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:45,200 Speaker 1: passed on, So I think that's something. And the other 466 00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:47,520 Speaker 1: thing to bear in mind is we've had that sort 467 00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:50,719 Speaker 1: of you know, the cash egg from from from the 468 00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:56,880 Speaker 1: pandemic which has been helping UM households as they sort 469 00:25:56,920 --> 00:26:01,159 Speaker 1: of have moved into this entire inflation the environment, and 470 00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:04,040 Speaker 1: that's going to have been disappearing now, so that's going 471 00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:06,840 Speaker 1: to be something that's going to becoming, I think more 472 00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:13,640 Speaker 1: obvious um as we're going too this, Senny Doana, such 473 00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:16,200 Speaker 1: a treat to hear all your insights and thoughts. We 474 00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:19,040 Speaker 1: we really appreciate it, and thanks for meeting with Valdonna 475 00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:22,359 Speaker 1: in London. That allows that allows her to expense her 476 00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:27,760 Speaker 1: whole trip from the entire thing to all the princesses 477 00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:52,919 Speaker 1: and castles. We can't let you go without participating in 478 00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:55,640 Speaker 1: our tradition on the show. Which is the craziest thing 479 00:26:56,280 --> 00:27:00,520 Speaker 1: we've seen in markets this week, So hopefully hopefully you've 480 00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:02,959 Speaker 1: got something for us. Uh, let's start with you though, 481 00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:05,200 Speaker 1: what's the craziest thing you saw this week? I actually 482 00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:07,160 Speaker 1: found a couple of things that I couldn't decide which 483 00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:09,080 Speaker 1: one I wanted to go with, but I'm going with 484 00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:13,119 Speaker 1: this headline and I saw on Bloomberg it's South Africa's 485 00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:16,359 Speaker 1: national airline is being sued by an investment firm and 486 00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:22,400 Speaker 1: the investment firm wants the sale to um. South Africa's 487 00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:26,600 Speaker 1: airline had sold itself or sold more than half of itself, 488 00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:29,040 Speaker 1: and so this investment firm wants the sale to be 489 00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:35,119 Speaker 1: rerun because they say the acquisition was unlawful and constitutionally invalid. 490 00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:38,719 Speaker 1: And I was going to ask you, Mike, to guess 491 00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:44,080 Speaker 1: how much this airline had gone for. Oh boy, was 492 00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:46,800 Speaker 1: it in in South African rand or is it in Uh? 493 00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:53,240 Speaker 1: Accept Yeah, I'll accept answers in news though. UM, I'm 494 00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:57,119 Speaker 1: guessing I'm gonna guess on the low end because I 495 00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:01,680 Speaker 1: don't think they'd be fighting over it otherwise, UM, hundred million, 496 00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:08,920 Speaker 1: three dollars, three dollars, I thought it was a type 497 00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:11,920 Speaker 1: of I would have been at least five. I didn't know. 498 00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:13,919 Speaker 1: I had I known, right, we could have on we 499 00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:16,399 Speaker 1: could have owned an airline. And is it it's just 500 00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:19,120 Speaker 1: they're so in debt. I guess that, Uh, it's more 501 00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:23,080 Speaker 1: of an enterprise value type of thing. I mean, who 502 00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:25,560 Speaker 1: wouldn't think that you you can't get more than three 503 00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:30,119 Speaker 1: dollars for an airline so low? Like any of us 504 00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:34,960 Speaker 1: could have bought it. I'm gonna get I'm gonna bid 505 00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:40,640 Speaker 1: on the next one. I'm gonna go. And that's pretty good. Jeez. 506 00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:44,200 Speaker 1: I thought I was low ball and at a hundred million, Well, 507 00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:47,040 Speaker 1: I don't know if I'd want to fly Fional on 508 00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:51,200 Speaker 1: an airline sold for three dollars. So do you know 509 00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:53,560 Speaker 1: what I was having a very similar thought. I was 510 00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:55,880 Speaker 1: trying to have picked her and imagine what the flight 511 00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:57,680 Speaker 1: you name flight might be. I know you like cast 512 00:28:57,680 --> 00:29:04,560 Speaker 1: the airlines can be a little bit uncomfortable, but I'm 513 00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:07,240 Speaker 1: not sure I'm taking that plate. How about you, Fional? 514 00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:10,160 Speaker 1: What's the what's the craziest thing you've seen recently? Hey, 515 00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:12,040 Speaker 1: do you know, I don't know if mind's crazy, but 516 00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:15,560 Speaker 1: it's something that I really enjoy watching, and it's you know, 517 00:29:15,840 --> 00:29:19,720 Speaker 1: sometimes there are those those those relationships between markets that 518 00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:22,400 Speaker 1: are quite interesting. And then just to name me a 519 00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:25,880 Speaker 1: little bit, and it's the Dr Copper I think you know, 520 00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:30,160 Speaker 1: just overnight we saw on the charts Dr Copper Bell Copper. 521 00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:33,560 Speaker 1: Should I say, um? You know, traditionally it just reflects 522 00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:36,680 Speaker 1: the health of the global economy. So when you know 523 00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:40,080 Speaker 1: the economy is in an expansion, we sent the copper 524 00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:43,240 Speaker 1: rises and and the alternative when it didn't sort of, 525 00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:46,360 Speaker 1: you know, in a period of contraction or heading talks 526 00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:50,920 Speaker 1: contracting with Tennessee that copper schools and copper has been fooling. 527 00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:55,200 Speaker 1: It's fallen. It's fallen to a fifty month low overnight 528 00:29:55,280 --> 00:30:01,000 Speaker 1: last night. It's down twenty five percent from its recent high. 529 00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:03,520 Speaker 1: And you know, it's taken out from cute that whole. 530 00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:05,720 Speaker 1: So I think again when we talk about about idea 531 00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:09,280 Speaker 1: a procession and helpable to economic it's a really good 532 00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:13,440 Speaker 1: one to be watching right now. Dr Copper, think the 533 00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:16,640 Speaker 1: good doctor. He is not not a good uh prognosis. 534 00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:20,000 Speaker 1: I guess the economy at the moment. And that's and 535 00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:22,400 Speaker 1: we are taping on Thursday, so that that price action, 536 00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:25,640 Speaker 1: uh Joan is talking about, happened Wednesday night in the Thursday, 537 00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:27,800 Speaker 1: So who knows, by the time this comes out, maybe 538 00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:30,080 Speaker 1: it'll bounce all the way back. We'll see. With with 539 00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:33,000 Speaker 1: with these markets, that's pretty good. You know what, I'm 540 00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:36,440 Speaker 1: gonna go back and start looking at copper again. It's uh, 541 00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:41,800 Speaker 1: it is such a closely watched barometer. Um. Everything is 542 00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:44,280 Speaker 1: so screwy these days, though it's hard to know if 543 00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:46,920 Speaker 1: if the old indicators are as reliable as the as 544 00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:50,479 Speaker 1: they want were. But but that is certainly a one 545 00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:53,840 Speaker 1: to watch. All right, I'm going back to my favorite 546 00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:58,200 Speaker 1: asset class, the the alternative asset class. Uh do you 547 00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:01,480 Speaker 1: guys YouTube might not be old enough to remember the 548 00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:11,720 Speaker 1: movie Back to the Future. Maybe not. You don't remember 549 00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:16,320 Speaker 1: this version of it when it came out in five 550 00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:19,920 Speaker 1: I think the movie came out, but in six it 551 00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:24,160 Speaker 1: came out on VHS tape. You had a VCR back 552 00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:26,600 Speaker 1: in the day, in the eighties. Yeah, I didn't have 553 00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:28,720 Speaker 1: one at this point, but you were a player. You 554 00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:32,120 Speaker 1: had that technology in your house in the mid eighties. 555 00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:36,520 Speaker 1: So the guy who's Biff, he's like the bad guy 556 00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:39,880 Speaker 1: in the movie, you know, the Bully. He's kept a sealed, 557 00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:44,160 Speaker 1: near mint condition of the original Back to the Future 558 00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:47,479 Speaker 1: vh S tape. He's had it in his possession all 559 00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:50,760 Speaker 1: this time, and I guess ifs I guess he's having 560 00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:53,800 Speaker 1: some hard time, so he's decided to sell it to 561 00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:57,800 Speaker 1: an auction house. Um, this is courtesy of CNN dot Com. 562 00:31:57,800 --> 00:32:02,160 Speaker 1: I'm getting the story. Heritage Auctions in Dallas put this 563 00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:06,840 Speaker 1: up for sale. Um. It ended up being the highest 564 00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:12,960 Speaker 1: ever auction price for a VHS tape. Um, so you 565 00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:15,440 Speaker 1: know what time it is, build Donna, I need you 566 00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:19,000 Speaker 1: to guess. Hopefully you do better than my guests on 567 00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:22,160 Speaker 1: the airline bid you were really bad at that was 568 00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:33,640 Speaker 1: pretty bad near condition VHS tape Back to the Future 569 00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:38,240 Speaker 1: was the highest ever selling price for a VHS tape 570 00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:41,680 Speaker 1: at a collectures action. And what they're saying is that 571 00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:45,240 Speaker 1: a lot of these old actors have rose and rose 572 00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:47,800 Speaker 1: on their bookshelves of old VHS tapes that might come 573 00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:50,000 Speaker 1: to market for some reason. They're a hot, hot thing 574 00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:55,680 Speaker 1: again in the collector's market. Which, um, I think he 575 00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:59,200 Speaker 1: offered to like write a note on it or something. Okay, 576 00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:01,320 Speaker 1: I'll go. I don't know if the buyer actually took 577 00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:03,240 Speaker 1: him up on that or not. They want to study that. 578 00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:08,560 Speaker 1: We don't need that, ye would, but it would be cool. Okay, Well, 579 00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:14,680 Speaker 1: I'll go with twelve thousand dollars. Twelve thousand dollars, doota. 580 00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:17,640 Speaker 1: How about you? What's what's your guests for the winning 581 00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:21,040 Speaker 1: auction price for for this VHS tape. I think I 582 00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:23,240 Speaker 1: would go a little bit higher. I think there is 583 00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:26,760 Speaker 1: some really keen back to the Future that level out there, 584 00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:32,200 Speaker 1: so I'm going to go stay twenty five thousand, dooda, 585 00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:38,800 Speaker 1: you win, but you're both stolettle off seventy five VHS. 586 00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:42,800 Speaker 1: Nobody even has VHS players. Who's going to watch that VHS? Yeah, 587 00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:44,680 Speaker 1: I'm not sure you ever want to play it, though 588 00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:47,160 Speaker 1: it's you might. You might drop it down and buy 589 00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:49,400 Speaker 1: about fifty tho if you if you actually play the thing, 590 00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:50,959 Speaker 1: I think you want to keep it in that field. 591 00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:55,040 Speaker 1: For whatever reason, people like to collect this stuff like this. 592 00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:59,520 Speaker 1: I'm always fascinated seventy five thousand. And you know, if 593 00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:06,040 Speaker 1: you god VHS tape second s, what do you have 594 00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:08,320 Speaker 1: on this shelf? You never know, You never know anymore. 595 00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:10,640 Speaker 1: But all I know is if you go to this 596 00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:12,880 Speaker 1: person's house, you know you're gonna hear all about it. 597 00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:14,960 Speaker 1: You know. I'm sure it's going to be displayed prominently. 598 00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:18,040 Speaker 1: I have an old Dennis the Menace If anybody wants it? 599 00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:26,520 Speaker 1: Oh really? Yeah? Bid all right? You you Mike, you 600 00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:28,919 Speaker 1: might get a bid for that. We'll see, we'll see 601 00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:31,920 Speaker 1: if you. I think the only way to bid on 602 00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:33,840 Speaker 1: that is you have to leave us a review of 603 00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:39,320 Speaker 1: the podcast on Apple podcast with with your bidding and 604 00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:41,000 Speaker 1: maybe your routing number. I don't know if you want 605 00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:45,239 Speaker 1: to Yeah, no, don't do that. We'll accept bids for that. 606 00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:48,680 Speaker 1: Dennis the Menace tape on on our Apple podcast Reviews, 607 00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:51,839 Speaker 1: which we need to get the three hundred before we 608 00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:54,759 Speaker 1: reveal bil Donna's high school nicknames. So we're we still 609 00:34:54,800 --> 00:34:57,719 Speaker 1: got a few more to go, so get him in there. 610 00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:00,200 Speaker 1: This is Mike's stick to get people to review. I 611 00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:05,080 Speaker 1: I can't resist a good gimmick. It's that's that's my 612 00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:07,879 Speaker 1: Achilles heel. But I think that is all the time. 613 00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:11,600 Speaker 1: So great to hear your thoughts. Um. Really appreciate you 614 00:35:11,680 --> 00:35:14,960 Speaker 1: joining us from London and hopefully we can talk again soon. 615 00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:27,200 Speaker 1: Thanks brilliant, Thank you so much. Really enjoying myself. Thank you, Fianna. 616 00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:30,360 Speaker 1: What Goes Up will be back next week and so 617 00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:32,759 Speaker 1: then you can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal website 618 00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:36,200 Speaker 1: and app or wherever you get your podcast. We love 619 00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:37,960 Speaker 1: it if you took the time to rate and review 620 00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:41,080 Speaker 1: the show on Apple Podcasts, so more listeners can find us. 621 00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:43,879 Speaker 1: And you can find us on Twitter, follow me at 622 00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:48,440 Speaker 1: Rea Anonymous, Bildanna Hirach is at Coldanna Hirach. You can 623 00:35:48,480 --> 00:35:53,120 Speaker 1: also follow Bloomberg podcasts. At Podcasts, What Goes Up is 624 00:35:53,160 --> 00:35:56,120 Speaker 1: produced by Stacy Wang. The head of Bloomberg Podcast is 625 00:35:56,120 --> 00:36:03,000 Speaker 1: francesco Leavie. Thanks for listening, See you next time. Aspect 626 00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:04,000 Speaker 1: not Wanting