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Okay, 11 00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:36,879 Speaker 1: let's get things started. 12 00:00:39,000 --> 00:00:47,160 Speaker 2: All right, here we go fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty 13 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:49,600 Speaker 2: thirty five, forty twenty five, fifty. 14 00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:50,960 Speaker 1: Get a check clock. 15 00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:59,640 Speaker 3: Start. Oh my godness, please stop all that. 16 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:15,959 Speaker 2: It's a light. It's not the size on the dog 17 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:16,480 Speaker 2: in the fight. 18 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:19,200 Speaker 4: It's the size of the fight in the dog. 19 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:25,039 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast, presented by 20 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:26,880 Speaker 2: wind Bet. I'm your host, Mike Calibery is of the 21 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:29,600 Speaker 2: Action Network, joined by my colleague Mike Ianello, and this 22 00:01:29,720 --> 00:01:33,039 Speaker 2: is our week four group of five deep dive and 23 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 2: we have some heroes to get into, some good breaks 24 00:01:35,600 --> 00:01:38,560 Speaker 2: and bad breaks and obviously some picks. But I'm gonna 25 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:41,679 Speaker 2: warn you luckily this is only audio medium, because we're 26 00:01:41,720 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 2: probably reeking after dumpster diving on this slate, particularly in 27 00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 2: G five land. I'm pulling out some dale old stale 28 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:52,080 Speaker 2: bear claws from this, from this trash man because who 29 00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:54,920 Speaker 2: this is rough. But this is why you go to us, 30 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:57,000 Speaker 2: This is why you're looking at the bottom of the board. 31 00:01:57,040 --> 00:01:59,360 Speaker 2: Where's the value? Where are their picks to be to 32 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:01,160 Speaker 2: be made and you know, hopefully make you some money 33 00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 2: over the weekends. We're here to do just that for you. 34 00:02:03,600 --> 00:02:05,720 Speaker 2: But before we get into it, we'd love to touch 35 00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:16,440 Speaker 2: on our group of five heroes of the week, and 36 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:18,680 Speaker 2: this one's pretty easy for me. I called that Frozen 37 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:21,200 Speaker 2: of State upset of UCLA. It looked like they were 38 00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:24,920 Speaker 2: gonna whilt down the stretch. Jake Hayner was limping around. 39 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 2: It was like a Disney made for TV movie. And 40 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:31,120 Speaker 2: that final drive if he did everything put the whole 41 00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:33,919 Speaker 2: team on his back. He was like swinging his hips, 42 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:36,400 Speaker 2: throwing passes like he looks like a golfer trying to 43 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:38,519 Speaker 2: dig a ball out of the bunker like he did 44 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 2: just he did not look right and after he throws 45 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 2: that touchdown past to Cropper, which ended up being the 46 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 2: deciding score, falls down to his knees, raises his hands 47 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:48,800 Speaker 2: to the sky like Elias from Platoon. I mean, what 48 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:51,799 Speaker 2: a scene, What a moment for a hero like Jake Hayner. 49 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:53,919 Speaker 2: You become like a proud little papa of who you're 50 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 2: backing on a week to week basis. We've talked a 51 00:02:55,760 --> 00:02:58,520 Speaker 2: lot about this presdent of State team really a touchdown 52 00:02:58,520 --> 00:03:00,880 Speaker 2: away from being a G five darling. They'd probably be 53 00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:02,840 Speaker 2: in the top ten if they had knocked off Oregon 54 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:06,120 Speaker 2: as well. What were your thoughts on that? Just absurd, 55 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 2: exciting middle of the night PAC twelve after dark madness 56 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:12,240 Speaker 2: that was first now State UCLA. 57 00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:17,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, unbelievable game, unbelievable call by you. Full disclosure. I'm 58 00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:19,800 Speaker 3: playing a little hurt today. Throats still a little sore. 59 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:22,360 Speaker 3: I was at Penn State this weekend for the white 60 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:25,160 Speaker 3: out game against Auburn, so I was basically screaming for 61 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:27,520 Speaker 3: you know, four straight hours with one hundred and ten 62 00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:30,080 Speaker 3: thousand people, So I squeak at all. 63 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 2: That's why, Yeah, you're nominated as our G five Hero 64 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:35,000 Speaker 2: of the Week. Just the fact that you're gutting this 65 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:37,160 Speaker 2: out and laying down some tracks for us. 66 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:38,200 Speaker 3: Sorry, who do you have? 67 00:03:38,280 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 2: As you're here of the week in Week three? 68 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 3: At first, I was gonna go with Billy Napier. I 69 00:03:42,960 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 3: was gonna go with Billy Napier, for he was the 70 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:49,320 Speaker 3: hero for over betters, running up tempo, throwing the ball, 71 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:52,520 Speaker 3: calling timeouts up forty one to fourteen, going for another 72 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:55,080 Speaker 3: fourth down, scoring late to hit the over. 73 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:57,600 Speaker 4: Scared money don't make money, you. 74 00:03:57,560 --> 00:04:00,360 Speaker 3: Know, if you bet the over, Billy Napier is your hero. 75 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:03,920 Speaker 3: But respect for Colin Wilson, I'm not gonna give out 76 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:05,840 Speaker 3: billion aper that would be mean to him. I'm going 77 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:08,840 Speaker 3: with Calvin Austin, the third, the little human Electric Factory 78 00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:11,320 Speaker 3: for Memphis. If you guys didn't watch this game or 79 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:14,040 Speaker 3: haven't watched him this year, he's much watched TV. Just 80 00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:17,000 Speaker 3: at the stage, Mississippi State was punding down four with 81 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:20,200 Speaker 3: six minutes left. Two Mississippi State players touched it down 82 00:04:20,200 --> 00:04:21,960 Speaker 3: inside the ten, but nobody picked it up. They just 83 00:04:22,040 --> 00:04:24,000 Speaker 3: kind of touched it and left it there. A little 84 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:27,200 Speaker 3: Calvin Austin, he's like five to eight, swooped in, scooped 85 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:29,520 Speaker 3: the ball up, took it ninety four yards to the 86 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:33,320 Speaker 3: house touchdown. Now, yes, I know Mississippi State fans are going, oh, 87 00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:36,440 Speaker 3: he didn't count, shouldn't have count? Yeah, yes, see officiating 88 00:04:36,480 --> 00:04:38,240 Speaker 3: crew who had a few bad calls this weekend. I 89 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:40,479 Speaker 3: might add as a Penn State fan, they admitted they 90 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:42,719 Speaker 3: were wrong, but guess what counts in the score sheet 91 00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:45,159 Speaker 3: and it gave Memphis a thirty one to twenty nine 92 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:48,120 Speaker 3: upset win. Austin had nine catches one hundred and five 93 00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:50,920 Speaker 3: yards and a touchdown and two touchdowns, so now three 94 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:52,760 Speaker 3: doll in that game. He leads the country with six 95 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:56,800 Speaker 3: receiving touchdowns three hundred and ninety one yards. He is awesome. 96 00:04:57,120 --> 00:04:58,880 Speaker 3: Calvin Austin is my hero of the week. 97 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 2: I think you can hit the nail on the head. 98 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:03,480 Speaker 2: He is absolutely electric to watch in the way that 99 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:05,719 Speaker 2: Memphis uses him. He's in every phase of the game. 100 00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:09,000 Speaker 2: Special teams, they get him on you know, speed running plays, 101 00:05:09,160 --> 00:05:11,279 Speaker 2: they hit him with bubble screens. He's down the field. 102 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:14,120 Speaker 2: All right, let's jump right into Week four. These are 103 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:16,680 Speaker 2: our g five deep dive best bets. 104 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:20,320 Speaker 3: Now, I want every bit of information that you've got 105 00:05:20,320 --> 00:05:22,719 Speaker 3: in this Every lead is that clear? 106 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:26,520 Speaker 2: One pick each in this spot because the board was 107 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 2: not enticing to say the least. But what is enticing 108 00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:31,200 Speaker 2: is the fact that we're nine and one on our 109 00:05:31,200 --> 00:05:33,520 Speaker 2: best bets. So we got to keep up this toward pace. Now, 110 00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:36,279 Speaker 2: I'm going to start with the FAU Als, a team 111 00:05:36,279 --> 00:05:38,480 Speaker 2: that really I think the public's forgotten about ever since 112 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:42,320 Speaker 2: Lane Kiffin left. And this play is predicated really as 113 00:05:42,440 --> 00:05:46,120 Speaker 2: much on the Air Force pass defense being horrific as 114 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:48,359 Speaker 2: it is about FAU being able to take advantage of that. 115 00:05:48,600 --> 00:05:51,960 Speaker 2: You know, air Force only returned one starter, and when 116 00:05:51,960 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 2: you look at returning production across college football, this is 117 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:57,119 Speaker 2: a boom year for it. You know, records across the board. 118 00:05:57,320 --> 00:05:59,920 Speaker 2: Most teams are returning seventy percent of their overall production 119 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:03,240 Speaker 2: when you factor in the transfer portal. The service academies 120 00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 2: were not beneficiaries obviously of the transfer portal, and I 121 00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:08,479 Speaker 2: think that's already been clear with the way that the 122 00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:10,840 Speaker 2: Falcons are playing. In their last game against Utah State, 123 00:06:11,000 --> 00:06:12,800 Speaker 2: I will add a Utah State team that was playing 124 00:06:12,839 --> 00:06:15,200 Speaker 2: musical chairs at quarterback. They gave up four hundred and 125 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 2: forty eight yards through the air, nine yards per attempt, 126 00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:21,239 Speaker 2: and five touchdowns in that spot. So when I look 127 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:24,760 Speaker 2: at the Fauls. Can they take advantage at Nikosy Perry 128 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:27,279 Speaker 2: ends up winning a quarterback battle in the fall. He's 129 00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:31,719 Speaker 2: looks really strong. Lejonte Wester, a freshman wide receiver, has 130 00:06:31,760 --> 00:06:33,680 Speaker 2: just been killing it the last two weeks, over one 131 00:06:33,720 --> 00:06:36,520 Speaker 2: hundred yards in each game, multiple touchdowns. I think this 132 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 2: is an FAU team that probably should be favored in 133 00:06:39,600 --> 00:06:42,360 Speaker 2: this game. They're catching five. I like them, you know, 134 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:44,120 Speaker 2: with the points. I'm also probably going to play them 135 00:06:44,120 --> 00:06:46,680 Speaker 2: on the money line. The Owls for me, are a 136 00:06:46,720 --> 00:06:48,240 Speaker 2: team that can go in and take advantage of a 137 00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:51,120 Speaker 2: really poorous air Force secondary. So I'm going to go 138 00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:52,960 Speaker 2: ahead and go against an air Force team that I 139 00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:56,120 Speaker 2: think is statistically being booyied a bit by the fact 140 00:06:56,160 --> 00:06:58,800 Speaker 2: that they played Navy, which as a longtime Navy fan, 141 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:01,800 Speaker 2: their offense is totally broke, and they're firing coaches, They're 142 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:04,160 Speaker 2: making mid season moves. I won't even throw in a 143 00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:06,280 Speaker 2: sinking ship analogy, but we all know what's going on 144 00:07:06,320 --> 00:07:08,360 Speaker 2: with Navy. Air Force was able to take advantage of 145 00:07:08,400 --> 00:07:10,560 Speaker 2: that holds them the three points. I think that puts 146 00:07:10,600 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 2: a little lipstick on their statistical resume, because really, air Force, 147 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:16,080 Speaker 2: I think is in for a world are hurt in 148 00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:18,400 Speaker 2: this game against the Owls. What's your best bet here 149 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:19,920 Speaker 2: to pair up in Week four? 150 00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 3: Quick little side note two, just because you mentioned Utah stay. 151 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:24,480 Speaker 3: It's so weird to me that Blake Anderson's like the 152 00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:26,560 Speaker 3: only head coach in the country that seems to make 153 00:07:26,600 --> 00:07:28,680 Speaker 3: two quarterbacks of work. And they always sayf you have 154 00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 3: two quarterbacks, you have none. He did it at Arkansas 155 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:33,120 Speaker 3: State and then both quarterbacks there were great. He's doing 156 00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 3: it here. Both have played well. He does it every year. 157 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:36,040 Speaker 3: I don't know how he does it. 158 00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:37,960 Speaker 2: I wonder if he told Logan Bonner that when he 159 00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:40,200 Speaker 2: transferred with him from Arkansas State. He's like, you're my 160 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 2: guy for the first and third quarters and alternating drives 161 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 2: after that. Like, I don't understand how he convinced him, 162 00:07:44,720 --> 00:07:47,400 Speaker 2: because Logan Bonnery worked last year tremendous stats. Yeah, it 163 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:50,120 Speaker 2: worked last year in Jonesborough, So I agree it's he 164 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:51,880 Speaker 2: really is one of the only coaches I've ever seen 165 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:53,320 Speaker 2: pulled off effectively. 166 00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:54,720 Speaker 3: For my best bet. Like you said, I don't like 167 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:56,480 Speaker 3: the card this week. It was hard to find plays 168 00:07:56,480 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 3: that really jumped out of me, so went in doubt. 169 00:07:58,520 --> 00:08:00,240 Speaker 3: Let's go with Old Faithful. I'm going back to my 170 00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 3: beloved Buffalo Bulls minus thirteen and a half at Old Dominion. 171 00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:05,320 Speaker 3: I looked this up. I had to look it up 172 00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 3: three times because I don't I still don't even know 173 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:08,960 Speaker 3: if it's correct. But the page I was looking at 174 00:08:09,040 --> 00:08:12,840 Speaker 3: as Buffalo ranked first in the country in offensive success rate. 175 00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:14,920 Speaker 3: Credit to the Bulls that that's kind of what they do. 176 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:18,400 Speaker 3: They're not explosive, they're not flashy, They're just efficient. They're 177 00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:20,480 Speaker 3: twenty six in the nation with rushing yards. They expected 178 00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:22,480 Speaker 3: it to be very Kevin Marx heavy, but you know 179 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:25,280 Speaker 3: they rotate three backs now with McDuffie and Cook Jr. 180 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:27,600 Speaker 3: All of them are averaging over four yards per Kerry. 181 00:08:27,840 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 3: They had a sixty one point seven percent success rate 182 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:33,080 Speaker 3: on rushing plays against Coastal Carolina, who is a much 183 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 3: better defense than Old Dominions. Kyle Van Tries has been 184 00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:39,680 Speaker 3: there for six years. He's the quintessential like efficient quarterback. 185 00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 3: He completed sixty percent of his passes seven point three 186 00:08:42,559 --> 00:08:44,959 Speaker 3: yards per attempt in his career. And on the other 187 00:08:45,000 --> 00:08:46,760 Speaker 3: side Old Dominion, you know, I kind of hate this 188 00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:49,160 Speaker 3: pick because I'm at Penn State guy, so I love 189 00:08:49,240 --> 00:08:51,040 Speaker 3: Ricky Ronnie, and I think he's going to be very 190 00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:53,400 Speaker 3: good there. But that team is still young. They opted 191 00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:55,599 Speaker 3: out obviously last year. Prior to that, they're one of 192 00:08:55,640 --> 00:08:58,280 Speaker 3: the worst offenses in the country, and that kind of 193 00:08:58,320 --> 00:08:59,880 Speaker 3: still seems like the case. You know, they flexed on 194 00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:01,640 Speaker 3: ampedon a little bit in Week two, so that a 195 00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:04,200 Speaker 3: lot some of their numbers are a little exaggerated, but 196 00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 3: they had just two hundred and one toill yards offense 197 00:09:06,679 --> 00:09:09,320 Speaker 3: against Liberty last week. Their offensive line is horrible. They 198 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:11,800 Speaker 3: allowed two sacks and six tackles for lost per game 199 00:09:12,040 --> 00:09:15,040 Speaker 3: this season, and Buffalo has a really good defensive front. 200 00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:16,880 Speaker 3: You know, Taylor Riggins is going to be able to 201 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:19,839 Speaker 3: get in that backfield. DJ Mack has kind of won 202 00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:22,080 Speaker 3: the starting quarterback job, and he has not looked good. 203 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:24,720 Speaker 3: He's completely just fifty percent of his passes, three touchdowns, 204 00:09:24,760 --> 00:09:27,160 Speaker 3: three picks. I think Buffalo's defense is good enough to 205 00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:29,160 Speaker 3: shut him down. I'll lay the thirteen and a half 206 00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:30,600 Speaker 3: with Buffalo overall dominion. 207 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:33,040 Speaker 2: I like that play a lot, to be honest, I 208 00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:35,480 Speaker 2: do like the fact that it's Taylor Riggins. Reminds me 209 00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:38,120 Speaker 2: of Tim Riggins and the actor Taylor Kitsch. I believe 210 00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:40,679 Speaker 2: played him on Friday Night Lights. So you know what's 211 00:09:40,720 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 2: not to love about clear eyes Full hearts can't lose 212 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 2: in that spots. Buffalo just particularly, you can get onto 213 00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:49,240 Speaker 2: the number, that key number of two touchdowns. I'm with you. 214 00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:52,240 Speaker 2: I watched that the entire Coastal Carolina game they were 215 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:56,480 Speaker 2: in it. There wasn't any smoking mirrors that Lance Leopold legacy. 216 00:09:56,720 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 2: If they win games, they've earned it. If they lose them, 217 00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:00,760 Speaker 2: you know, usually they're just out last and the talent 218 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:03,560 Speaker 2: perspective in old Dominion doesn't have the horses in that spot. 219 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:05,880 Speaker 2: All right, We're going to transition quickly to our underdog 220 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:08,120 Speaker 2: parlay pick of the week, so one. 221 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 4: Each turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for 222 00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:17,960 Speaker 4: the money line parlay. 223 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:22,040 Speaker 2: I'm going to go ahead with the road Runners hashtag 224 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:25,959 Speaker 2: meet utsa plus one thirty five. Honestly, I think the 225 00:10:25,960 --> 00:10:27,720 Speaker 2: reason why they're an underdog in this spot is that 226 00:10:27,840 --> 00:10:31,080 Speaker 2: Memphis has been so good as a home favorite dating 227 00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:34,520 Speaker 2: back five years. They are twenty eight and two straight 228 00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:37,520 Speaker 2: up in Memphis when they are a home favorite, and 229 00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:40,199 Speaker 2: in this spot, I think they're just a little bit overvalued. 230 00:10:40,480 --> 00:10:43,240 Speaker 2: They steal a win from Mississippi State. When you look 231 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:46,360 Speaker 2: at that special team touchdown that you referenced earlier, they 232 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 2: get absolutely shredded by Will Rogers. That just doesn't translate 233 00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:52,720 Speaker 2: to the scoreboard, but they give up over four hundred 234 00:10:52,800 --> 00:10:55,720 Speaker 2: yards through the air. This Memphis defense, I think, is 235 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:59,800 Speaker 2: going to really struggle against a very well balanced UTSA 236 00:10:59,840 --> 00:11:01,920 Speaker 2: all offense. And as we mentioned earlier in the season 237 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:05,200 Speaker 2: when we picked them to beat Illinois outright in Champagne, 238 00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:08,160 Speaker 2: what I needed to see from Frank Harris was those 239 00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:11,120 Speaker 2: baby steps that Matura should go from a C passing 240 00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:13,679 Speaker 2: game to a B minus. Pro Football Focus ranks them 241 00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:16,439 Speaker 2: as the twenty sixth best passing attack in the country. 242 00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:19,119 Speaker 2: I'm not sure if they're quite in that top thirty conversation, 243 00:11:19,400 --> 00:11:21,400 Speaker 2: but they're now at a point where you cannot just 244 00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:24,319 Speaker 2: stack the box to stop. Sincere McCormick, who by the way, 245 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:26,679 Speaker 2: in games when they needed him, has gone over one 246 00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:28,920 Speaker 2: hundred yards per game when they've given him the touches, 247 00:11:29,080 --> 00:11:32,080 Speaker 2: he's been that same dynamic back as we experience, you know, 248 00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:34,839 Speaker 2: last year, in all of their games. I think he's 249 00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:37,440 Speaker 2: due for a breakout game. I don't think Memphis is 250 00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:38,880 Speaker 2: really going to be able to stop them. This is 251 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:41,160 Speaker 2: a game where I think the wrong team is actually favored. 252 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:43,520 Speaker 2: Here Utsa in my mind as a top five G 253 00:11:43,679 --> 00:11:47,040 Speaker 2: five team, and Memphis is still too young and putting 254 00:11:47,080 --> 00:11:50,600 Speaker 2: the pressure of expectations on Seth Hennigan after coming up 255 00:11:50,640 --> 00:11:53,080 Speaker 2: with a win over an SEC team. I see letdown 256 00:11:53,160 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 2: ridden all over this. I like the Roadrunners. What are 257 00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:57,120 Speaker 2: your thoughts on that one? And what are you pairing 258 00:11:57,200 --> 00:11:59,400 Speaker 2: up for our money line underdog part light here in 259 00:11:59,440 --> 00:11:59,800 Speaker 2: week four? 260 00:12:00,320 --> 00:12:00,480 Speaker 1: Yeah? 261 00:12:00,520 --> 00:12:02,600 Speaker 3: I agree completely. I actually wrote this game up for 262 00:12:02,640 --> 00:12:05,040 Speaker 3: the Action Network website, so you know, everyone listening make 263 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 3: sure to go check out you know, that article and 264 00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:09,760 Speaker 3: the rest of our incredibly talented group of writers over 265 00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:11,959 Speaker 3: there that pretty much cover every game. At this point, 266 00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:14,240 Speaker 3: when I was digging in this game, the handicap for 267 00:12:14,280 --> 00:12:16,360 Speaker 3: me came down to, obviously, you look at Memphis offense 268 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:18,200 Speaker 3: and they're super explosive, and you know, they put up 269 00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:20,520 Speaker 3: a ton of points. They ranked just sixty sixth in 270 00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:23,200 Speaker 3: success rate. They have not moved the ball consistently. What 271 00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:25,800 Speaker 3: they do is their tenth inexplosiveness and they rely on 272 00:12:25,840 --> 00:12:28,120 Speaker 3: like we talked about, Calvin Austin, you know, breaking free 273 00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:31,920 Speaker 3: for eighty yard plays. UTSA is twenty seven at defending 274 00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:34,679 Speaker 3: big plays. They've allowed just two plays of thirty plus 275 00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:37,440 Speaker 3: yards all season, the fourth best in the country. So 276 00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:39,400 Speaker 3: I think UTSA is going to limit those those big 277 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:41,560 Speaker 3: plays keep in front of them. Make Memphis in that 278 00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:43,719 Speaker 3: freshman quarterback dnk and Donkin, I don't think they'll be 279 00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:45,600 Speaker 3: able to I agree with you. I think mcormack's gonna 280 00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:46,200 Speaker 3: break out and run. 281 00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:48,400 Speaker 2: It down their throat and I'll jump through with one 282 00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:51,560 Speaker 2: more set. Really, if you want to nippick UTSA. The 283 00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:54,480 Speaker 2: one issue they've had is in past protection. They've been 284 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:56,400 Speaker 2: a little bit leaky there and Frank Harris has bailed 285 00:12:56,400 --> 00:12:58,960 Speaker 2: them out with this mobility. But Memphis is not equipped 286 00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:00,760 Speaker 2: to be living in their back They're one hundred and 287 00:13:00,760 --> 00:13:03,560 Speaker 2: twelfth in tackles for loss per game, in the hundreds 288 00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:06,680 Speaker 2: in sacks. So they're just not a team that, through 289 00:13:06,720 --> 00:13:09,480 Speaker 2: their scheme or through their personnel, is generating any pressure. 290 00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:12,480 Speaker 2: When I look forward to the rest of UTSA schedule, 291 00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:14,480 Speaker 2: if they are going to play a team that cranks 292 00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:16,400 Speaker 2: up the havoc and it lives in their backfield, that 293 00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:17,760 Speaker 2: could be an issue for them, but not in the 294 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:18,720 Speaker 2: spot against Memphis. 295 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:21,640 Speaker 3: So for my play, it's only fitting that it's Ryder 296 00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:25,200 Speaker 3: Cup week and I'm doubling down on Conference USA, Baby 297 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:36,320 Speaker 3: Conference USA. I'm going with UAB plus one sixty over Tulane. 298 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:38,320 Speaker 3: UAB is also one of the best teams in the 299 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:40,520 Speaker 3: G five. You know, they've won the Conference Essay two 300 00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:42,680 Speaker 3: of the last three years, and they get it done 301 00:13:42,679 --> 00:13:45,199 Speaker 3: with defense. You know, they were seventh total defense last year, 302 00:13:45,280 --> 00:13:47,640 Speaker 3: seventh against the pass, which is their strength, and going 303 00:13:47,720 --> 00:13:49,920 Speaker 3: up against the Tulane team, where you know that's kind 304 00:13:49,920 --> 00:13:52,000 Speaker 3: of their strength to that UAB defense, they would turn 305 00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:54,520 Speaker 3: for their top five defensive backs. This year, they're eleventh 306 00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:57,240 Speaker 3: in success right against the pass, and even that's kind 307 00:13:57,280 --> 00:13:59,400 Speaker 3: of scuge because they were torched by Georgia obviously, but 308 00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:02,840 Speaker 3: Toulings not Georgia. This cabd events was dominant against Jacksonville 309 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:05,480 Speaker 3: State and North Texas totally shut him down. You know, 310 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:07,080 Speaker 3: they've had a little bit of a QB issue, But 311 00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:10,319 Speaker 3: Tyler Johnson was bench last week and Dylan Hopkins came in. 312 00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:13,240 Speaker 3: He went six for seven for two hundred and two 313 00:14:13,320 --> 00:14:16,160 Speaker 3: yards and three touchdowns. So how do you like that 314 00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:18,120 Speaker 3: for efficiency? At the end of the day. I think 315 00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:20,400 Speaker 3: UAB is one of the best coach team in the country, 316 00:14:20,440 --> 00:14:21,920 Speaker 3: and I was looking at some of these trends, which 317 00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:24,160 Speaker 3: you know, I don't always love trends, but for underdog spy, 318 00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:27,400 Speaker 3: I kind of do. Bill Clark at UAB is eight 319 00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:30,600 Speaker 3: and four straight up as an underdog of seven points 320 00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:33,320 Speaker 3: or less, and he's five and two on the road. 321 00:14:33,560 --> 00:14:36,480 Speaker 3: Bill Clark in this spot, you know, short road dog, 322 00:14:36,720 --> 00:14:39,680 Speaker 3: he does really well. So give me the Blazers plus 323 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:42,160 Speaker 3: one sixty at two lane and let's hit this Conference 324 00:14:42,240 --> 00:14:43,640 Speaker 3: USA moneyline parlay. 325 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:46,960 Speaker 2: I really do like that one. I'm actually typing in 326 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:49,640 Speaker 2: the payout odds right now. You're gonna want to make 327 00:14:49,680 --> 00:14:52,480 Speaker 2: sure to check out win Beat for the latest odds 328 00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:55,440 Speaker 2: before you know you place this one. But in my minds, 329 00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:57,320 Speaker 2: there was a number that I needed to clear, which 330 00:14:57,360 --> 00:15:00,280 Speaker 2: was five to one. It's paying plus five fifteen. There's 331 00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:02,520 Speaker 2: a lot of value in playing two really good G 332 00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:05,040 Speaker 2: five teams in a week where and we'll get to 333 00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:07,040 Speaker 2: this in our round robin. We're look at some teams 334 00:15:07,040 --> 00:15:09,120 Speaker 2: that you got to really squint or put the rose 335 00:15:09,160 --> 00:15:12,400 Speaker 2: colored glasses on to get excited about, but certainly not 336 00:15:12,520 --> 00:15:20,360 Speaker 2: UAB and UTSA and that is a quickerminder to our listeners. 337 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:23,000 Speaker 2: The Big Bets on Campus podcast is presented by win 338 00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:25,400 Speaker 2: Bet Sportsbook and they've got a great sign them offer 339 00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:28,040 Speaker 2: for you guys this season. New win Bet patrons who 340 00:15:28,080 --> 00:15:30,440 Speaker 2: open an account and deposit twenty dollars a more can 341 00:15:30,480 --> 00:15:33,240 Speaker 2: make their first bet risk free up to one thousand dollars. 342 00:15:33,520 --> 00:15:35,800 Speaker 2: That's right. 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All right. 350 00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:58,240 Speaker 2: With that as a transition, this is the G five 351 00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:00,640 Speaker 2: High five round robin parlay. 352 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:05,360 Speaker 4: The G five high five should be high five high five. 353 00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:08,560 Speaker 2: And this week I'm going to do two with a three, 354 00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:11,080 Speaker 2: and I'll get it started with a team that I'm 355 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:12,960 Speaker 2: going to put my hand up and say that I 356 00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:16,000 Speaker 2: was ready for this to be the worst college football 357 00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:18,600 Speaker 2: team of the season. And Yukon obviously said hold my 358 00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:21,040 Speaker 2: beer on that one. But New Mexico State now three 359 00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:24,040 Speaker 2: and one against the spread. They played very well defensively 360 00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:26,480 Speaker 2: in my opinion against San Diego State, a game that 361 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:29,280 Speaker 2: they only lost twenty eight to ten in a year 362 00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:31,960 Speaker 2: in which there's not that much of a difference. And 363 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:34,720 Speaker 2: in some cases you have the FCS teams that in 364 00:16:34,760 --> 00:16:37,880 Speaker 2: the holistic rankings, whether they're Sagarin or you know, whatever 365 00:16:37,920 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 2: metric you're looking at, there's a lot of FCS teams 366 00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:42,320 Speaker 2: that are higher when I'm looking at just how bad 367 00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:45,720 Speaker 2: compared to other FBS teams, this New Mexico State defense is. 368 00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:49,640 Speaker 2: I had much much lower expectations. I think they've done 369 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:51,880 Speaker 2: just enough to keep themselves in games from the point 370 00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:55,400 Speaker 2: spread perspective. And when you look at the quarterback switch 371 00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:58,080 Speaker 2: going to Dino Maldonado, he's a guy who I think 372 00:16:58,160 --> 00:16:59,640 Speaker 2: is gonna be able to move the football in this 373 00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:02,520 Speaker 2: game against a Hawaii defense that has been up and down. 374 00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:05,080 Speaker 2: But really, when they come to the mainland, they have 375 00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:08,159 Speaker 2: struggled two and seven in their last nine trips to 376 00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:10,960 Speaker 2: the mainland against the spread, and vis A v The 377 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:15,320 Speaker 2: closing number a negative ten point spread, so on average 378 00:17:15,320 --> 00:17:18,200 Speaker 2: they're failing to cover by ten points. This is Hawaii team. 379 00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:20,960 Speaker 2: Also that when I look at Chevin Cordero, the books 380 00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:23,720 Speaker 2: written on him, he's complaining fifty three percent of his passes. 381 00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:26,960 Speaker 2: They're not a run first team. They're not a run 382 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:29,399 Speaker 2: and shoot team anymore. It's not the same offense as 383 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:32,520 Speaker 2: the June Jones era and kind of those those disciples 384 00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:34,720 Speaker 2: that followed after him. I just really don't like this 385 00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:38,199 Speaker 2: Hawaii offense. Coming directly after a letdown spot losing in 386 00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:40,159 Speaker 2: a close game to San Jose State, which could have 387 00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:42,280 Speaker 2: set them up nicely for the Mountain West Conference. I 388 00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:44,280 Speaker 2: see them sleepwalking through this game. So I'm gonna take 389 00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:47,920 Speaker 2: seventeen and the Aggies, a team that arguably should have 390 00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:49,800 Speaker 2: come into the season as one hundred and thirtieth in 391 00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:51,359 Speaker 2: the country. I think they're going to finish like one 392 00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:53,080 Speaker 2: to fifteenth. I think they have a little bit of 393 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:55,479 Speaker 2: fight in them. And I'm impressed with what's going on 394 00:17:55,560 --> 00:17:57,879 Speaker 2: last Crusis And my crazy is that just like a 395 00:17:57,880 --> 00:17:59,520 Speaker 2: bridge too far for you. Even in a. 396 00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:02,359 Speaker 3: Week like this, it's all crazy, but I like it. 397 00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:04,040 Speaker 3: I like a little crazy, you know, we coo like this. 398 00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:06,240 Speaker 3: This is this is what the round robins forts it's 399 00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:07,199 Speaker 3: forgetting a little crazy. 400 00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:09,840 Speaker 2: Give me two picks here, we'll go back to back 401 00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:11,960 Speaker 2: before I give my last one for the round robin. 402 00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:13,960 Speaker 3: All right, my first pick. I know you're not gonna 403 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:15,680 Speaker 3: like this because they know they burnt you last week. 404 00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:18,920 Speaker 3: I'm going back to Toledo. I'm taking Toledo on the money. 405 00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:21,680 Speaker 2: I've actually never heard of them. Toledo has a football team, 406 00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:24,080 Speaker 2: news to me, a race from history for me, but 407 00:18:24,119 --> 00:18:25,160 Speaker 2: please continue. 408 00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:28,240 Speaker 3: Hey, they wont me my flag, which my maction flag 409 00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:30,600 Speaker 3: still has not come yet, unfortunately, But I'm going to 410 00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:33,399 Speaker 3: Toledo money line as a short favorite. At ball State. 411 00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:35,520 Speaker 3: Ball State just hasn't looked good to me. You know, 412 00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:38,160 Speaker 3: they lost running back Caleb Huntley, which I think has 413 00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:40,720 Speaker 3: really really affected them. Drew Plitt has not looked good 414 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:43,680 Speaker 3: at all. Their only win this year was against FCS 415 00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:46,440 Speaker 3: Western Illinois, who, by the way out gained ball State 416 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:48,680 Speaker 3: had a just one hundred and eighty eight yards passing. 417 00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:51,520 Speaker 3: Penn State obviously smoked them. Pit through a plit through 418 00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:55,280 Speaker 3: two picks. It was benched last week against Wyoming and 419 00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:57,120 Speaker 3: then John Patty came in. It was just as bad. 420 00:18:57,119 --> 00:18:59,399 Speaker 3: They both threw a pick six in that game. And 421 00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:01,359 Speaker 3: then you look at Toledo and you know Carter. They 422 00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:03,680 Speaker 3: had a QB battle coming into the year. Carter Bradley 423 00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:07,560 Speaker 3: has emerged as that starter. Their other twenty starters all 424 00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:10,280 Speaker 3: came back, including Bryan Kobak, who's a study running back 425 00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:13,600 Speaker 3: who's been awesome this year. Toledo beat up on Norfolk State, 426 00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:16,560 Speaker 3: they hung with Notre Dame really close, almost pulled off 427 00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:18,720 Speaker 3: that upset. And then yeah, they laid a dud against 428 00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:21,879 Speaker 3: Colorado State, I'll admit that, but their defense was awesome. 429 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:24,000 Speaker 3: I mean, they didn't allow an offensive touchdown and then 430 00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:25,920 Speaker 3: you know Colorado State won because they had a punt 431 00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:28,359 Speaker 3: return five field goals. So I think, you know, the 432 00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:30,320 Speaker 3: offense gets settled up. I think they have a big 433 00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:33,159 Speaker 3: bounce back game against ball State. I just think Toledo 434 00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:34,840 Speaker 3: is a better team, So I'll take the money line 435 00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:36,399 Speaker 3: as a short short fair. I think their minds two 436 00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:38,320 Speaker 3: hundred on the money line for the round robin. Just 437 00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:39,800 Speaker 3: give me Toledo on the money line. I think they 438 00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:41,880 Speaker 3: take care of business and bounce back against ball State. 439 00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:45,439 Speaker 2: I agree with your assessment on ball State. They've kind 440 00:19:45,440 --> 00:19:47,919 Speaker 2: of stuffed walked through this season. It's it's surprising to 441 00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:50,960 Speaker 2: me that Drew has struggled so much. But they just 442 00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:53,760 Speaker 2: should be better. And I understand the confidence, you know, 443 00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:56,360 Speaker 2: being drained from their body in that Penn State game, 444 00:19:56,400 --> 00:19:59,200 Speaker 2: but Wyoming should not be doing that to you in 445 00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:02,480 Speaker 2: a situation where you're pulling quarterbacks, particularly a team that 446 00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:04,560 Speaker 2: won the MAAC last year. So there is something wrong 447 00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:06,240 Speaker 2: with ball State. So I understand why you're in a 448 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:08,320 Speaker 2: spot to fade them. How about your next one. 449 00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:11,000 Speaker 3: My next pick, You're fading a Service Academy. So again, 450 00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:13,359 Speaker 3: it's a Ryder Cup week. I'll go them back another one. 451 00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:16,160 Speaker 3: I'm taking Army on the money line against Miami Ohio. 452 00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:19,000 Speaker 3: Army's gonna run it down their throat your markets. 453 00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:19,720 Speaker 2: Understand that. 454 00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:27,080 Speaker 3: Oh shit, I can't hear you. Miami is one hundred 455 00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:29,960 Speaker 3: and sixteenth in rushing success on defense, there are one 456 00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:32,840 Speaker 3: hundred and eighth in line yards. Cincinnati ran all over them, 457 00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:35,840 Speaker 3: Minnesota ran all over them. Army's averaging three hundred and 458 00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:38,160 Speaker 3: thirty one rushing yards per game. They're averaging five yards 459 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:41,280 Speaker 3: per carry this year. But here's the kicker. Armies first 460 00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:44,480 Speaker 3: in the country in passing success rate. They're throwing the 461 00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:47,080 Speaker 3: ball a little bit here. Army's throwing four touchdowns and 462 00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:50,720 Speaker 3: they've only allowed three passing touchdowns. So Armies passing all 463 00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:52,800 Speaker 3: better than their oponents. According to that one stat that 464 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:55,400 Speaker 3: I just pulled out, they're averaging twenty one point seven 465 00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:57,240 Speaker 3: yards per attempt. That's what they're doing, you know, they 466 00:20:57,400 --> 00:20:58,959 Speaker 3: run down your throat, They run down your throat, they 467 00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:01,880 Speaker 3: run down your throat. Pop pass forty yard touchdown. They're 468 00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:04,359 Speaker 3: averaging forty four points per game. Army is running the 469 00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:06,600 Speaker 3: ball up and this Miami defense is not gonna be 470 00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:08,600 Speaker 3: able to stop them at all. Give me the Army 471 00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:10,360 Speaker 3: money line against Miami, Ohio. 472 00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:13,480 Speaker 2: Here's an interesting question because Jeff Mounkin's name gets dropped 473 00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:18,879 Speaker 2: every single you know, coaching carousel offseason article, and is 474 00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:20,480 Speaker 2: he going to go to Vanderbilt? Is he going to 475 00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:23,320 Speaker 2: go to Kansas? If you just took the current roster 476 00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:25,840 Speaker 2: of Army and put them in either of those two schools, 477 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,159 Speaker 2: they win more games this year, which is crazy to 478 00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:30,320 Speaker 2: me with all the requirements, you know, just to get 479 00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:34,080 Speaker 2: into these service academies and all the limitations and just 480 00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:37,480 Speaker 2: thinking about, like the arguments against having a triple option 481 00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:41,800 Speaker 2: at these historic dormmats. I don't understand, because honestly, he's 482 00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:43,400 Speaker 2: going to play his way into the top twenty five 483 00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:46,800 Speaker 2: this season. They have some cool you know marquee games. 484 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:48,879 Speaker 2: I believe they play Liberty later in the season and 485 00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:51,080 Speaker 2: that could be a top twenty matchup. Like this is 486 00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:53,399 Speaker 2: one of the better stories in college football, and I 487 00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:55,199 Speaker 2: think it still gets that little pad on the head 488 00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:57,040 Speaker 2: all that's cute because you're running the triple option. You 489 00:21:57,080 --> 00:21:59,000 Speaker 2: know what's not cute giving up three hundred and fifty 490 00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:01,040 Speaker 2: rushing yards per game. And I agree with you in 491 00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:03,159 Speaker 2: this spot. I don't think there's any chance that the 492 00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:06,720 Speaker 2: RedHawks can slow them down. I honestly think that Army 493 00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:09,840 Speaker 2: is going to, you know, play their way into double 494 00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:12,199 Speaker 2: digit wins, you know, a ten plus wins season, and 495 00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:13,800 Speaker 2: this is one of the better prices you're going to 496 00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:15,440 Speaker 2: get them out because there's just going to be momentum 497 00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:18,199 Speaker 2: that's building as they rack up these wins. All right, 498 00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:20,479 Speaker 2: For my last one, I'm going to go with UTEP 499 00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:24,040 Speaker 2: and this one's pretty simple. College Fantasy Update dot Com'm 500 00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:26,199 Speaker 2: gonna give them a quick plug. It's something that I 501 00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:29,840 Speaker 2: follow for college fantasy football injury updates and They do 502 00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:33,200 Speaker 2: a great job of cataloging every single beat writer. Who's 503 00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:35,000 Speaker 2: you know, the QB taking snaps? Is this guy in 504 00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:36,840 Speaker 2: a walking boot, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. This 505 00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:40,640 Speaker 2: one is simple. Dion Hankins is back for UTEP. He's 506 00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:42,960 Speaker 2: the best player on the team. They survived without him, 507 00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:46,280 Speaker 2: and what actually happens in his absence is you had 508 00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:50,399 Speaker 2: Hardison and Cowing really develop an explosive passing game. And 509 00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:52,600 Speaker 2: because of that, I think when he comes back, it's 510 00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:55,960 Speaker 2: going to be this great compliment. I am excited about 511 00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:58,520 Speaker 2: them in this game. I'm actually excited about the the 512 00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:00,879 Speaker 2: UTEP offense for the first time in a long time. 513 00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:05,120 Speaker 2: And honestly, I think, on top of everything else, what's 514 00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:08,919 Speaker 2: really interesting is that historically they've been a doormat and 515 00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:12,320 Speaker 2: to steal a booger McFarland line, when anyone's playing against 516 00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:14,640 Speaker 2: UTEP in the last ten years, it's a burger king situation. 517 00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:16,480 Speaker 2: They can have it their way. They can run the ball, 518 00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:18,800 Speaker 2: they can spread it out, they can do anything they want. 519 00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:20,600 Speaker 2: They're going to get four hundred and five hundred yards 520 00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:23,960 Speaker 2: total offense and win going away. But this year, even 521 00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:26,720 Speaker 2: in their blowout loss to Boise State, they really bode 522 00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:29,119 Speaker 2: their necks on the defensive line, holding the Broncos to 523 00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:31,600 Speaker 2: three point three yards per carry. That's what they've been 524 00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:34,119 Speaker 2: able to do as the run defense this year. I 525 00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:35,400 Speaker 2: think they're going to be able to do it again 526 00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:38,520 Speaker 2: against the New Mexico team that's struggling to run the football, 527 00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:42,040 Speaker 2: which is a little bit interesting given the personnel that 528 00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:45,280 Speaker 2: they've had in the recent success with a run focused offense. 529 00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:48,400 Speaker 2: So a strength versus a weakness there. I think they 530 00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:50,680 Speaker 2: take away the running game and then it's Terry Wilson's 531 00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:53,479 Speaker 2: game to win. I feel more confident in the UTEP offense, 532 00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:54,879 Speaker 2: so I'm going to go and take them plus one 533 00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:56,680 Speaker 2: to fifteen and toss this into the round robin. 534 00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:59,400 Speaker 3: All right. For my last play, surprise, surprise, I'm going 535 00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:01,320 Speaker 3: to another Mac game. I actually just realized as I'm 536 00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:03,560 Speaker 3: saying this, I'm taking all Mac games. Clearly. I have 537 00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 3: a strong brand. I'm gonna take Maryland minus fourteen against 538 00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:09,240 Speaker 3: Kent State this one. You know, it does make a 539 00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:11,000 Speaker 3: little nervous. I know we're talking a friend. You don't 540 00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:13,359 Speaker 3: love it, but I'm sticking with it. You know, Dustin 541 00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:15,560 Speaker 3: Crumb is the guy. I was super high on coming 542 00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:16,960 Speaker 3: into the year. You know, I was talking him up 543 00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 3: as a potential, you know, that first round G five 544 00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:22,320 Speaker 3: quarterback that could sneak in there. He just hasn't looked right. 545 00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:24,120 Speaker 3: You know. He's averaging one hundred and fifty one yards 546 00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:27,760 Speaker 3: per game, two touchdowns, two interceptions. Yes, they played Texas 547 00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:29,760 Speaker 3: A and M and Iowa, which is gonna be tough, 548 00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:31,720 Speaker 3: but a quarterback his caliber should still be able to 549 00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:34,199 Speaker 3: move the ball a little bit. And even against vm I, 550 00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:37,480 Speaker 3: he threw just seventeen passes. You know, Kent State is 551 00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:40,240 Speaker 3: one hundred and first in passing success on offense and 552 00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:43,000 Speaker 3: they're facing a Maryland defense that's been really good against 553 00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:45,359 Speaker 3: the pass. They're twenty second in the country against the pass, 554 00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:49,359 Speaker 3: and Talia Tagovailola has looked awesome. He has one hundred 555 00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:53,359 Speaker 3: and sixteen dropbacks this year, zero turnover worthy plays. According 556 00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:56,440 Speaker 3: to Pro Football Focus, it's the second highest passing grade 557 00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:59,359 Speaker 3: in the country right now. He's eighty four one hundred 558 00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:01,840 Speaker 3: and six on this season. That's seventy five point five 559 00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:05,800 Speaker 3: percent of as passes he's completing. Maryland's ninth in passing success. 560 00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:09,399 Speaker 3: They're thirty third in rushing success. They low key have 561 00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:12,440 Speaker 3: like a ton of weapons too, you know, Dante DIMIs, 562 00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:15,040 Speaker 3: Rakeem Jarrett on the outside, they have running back Tevon 563 00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:18,280 Speaker 3: Fleet Davis is averaging six point eight yards per carry. 564 00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:21,360 Speaker 3: And then yeah, defensively, they've been kind of surprising as well. 565 00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:23,000 Speaker 3: You kind of knew their offense is gonna be good, 566 00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:25,640 Speaker 3: but they're eighteenth in Havoc. They've been great against the pass, 567 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:27,800 Speaker 3: great against the run. You know, we've seen kind of 568 00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:30,840 Speaker 3: a lot of big ten teams whooping up on the 569 00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:33,159 Speaker 3: MAC this year. You know, so I'm gonna do it. 570 00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:35,960 Speaker 3: I'm gonna take it again. I'm gonna take Maryland minus 571 00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:38,200 Speaker 3: fourteen against Kent State for my final pick. 572 00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:41,919 Speaker 2: Having picked against Kent State twice on this podcast and 573 00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:44,439 Speaker 2: hit both times, I was gonna give them the benefit 574 00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:46,480 Speaker 2: of doubt. And you know, before this number dropped, I 575 00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:48,920 Speaker 2: was like, this is a nice bounce back spot, having 576 00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:51,480 Speaker 2: played against two top five defenses in A and M 577 00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:54,320 Speaker 2: and Iowa, thinking that the team total would be like 578 00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:57,320 Speaker 2: eighteen eighteen and a half somewhere in there. It's twenty seven. 579 00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:01,000 Speaker 2: That's giving an offense from last year way too much credit. 580 00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:05,240 Speaker 2: They've clearly not replaced the explosiveness of McCoy on the perimeter. 581 00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:07,920 Speaker 2: They also have some injuries at wide receiver coming into 582 00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:10,560 Speaker 2: this game, and I agree the VA My game was 583 00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:12,720 Speaker 2: the red flag game for me. You can write off 584 00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:15,560 Speaker 2: the other performances, but that's a game where they should 585 00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:17,960 Speaker 2: have absolutely dominated. They gave up one hundred and fifty 586 00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:20,119 Speaker 2: yards to the key debts in that spot on the 587 00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:23,679 Speaker 2: ground as well. I think Maryland boat racism. You've convinced me. 588 00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:26,159 Speaker 2: I'm in on it. I'll probably play over in that 589 00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:28,560 Speaker 2: spot as well. But that's a nice way to cap 590 00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:29,480 Speaker 2: off our round robin. 591 00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:31,200 Speaker 3: I do like that over a lot too. I think 592 00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:32,879 Speaker 3: I think Marylyn put up fifty on them. So you 593 00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:34,719 Speaker 3: get Ken say, you know, seventeen year heit, you hit 594 00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:35,280 Speaker 3: it all right. 595 00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:37,240 Speaker 2: So we're gonna do a quick wrap up of all 596 00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:40,040 Speaker 2: of our picks here. So for our best bets, I 597 00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:42,080 Speaker 2: like FAU plus. 598 00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:44,760 Speaker 4: Five the Florida Atlanta owls. 599 00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:47,639 Speaker 2: Ianello is on Buffalo minus thirteen and a. 600 00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:50,280 Speaker 4: Half the Buffalo Bulls. 601 00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:53,520 Speaker 2: For our underdog parlay here in week four. I like 602 00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:57,720 Speaker 2: UTSA the Roadrunners plus one thirty five on the money line. 603 00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:00,160 Speaker 4: The UTSA road Runners. 604 00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:05,840 Speaker 2: And he's tacking on UAB plus one sixty going with 605 00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:08,760 Speaker 2: the Blazers and they're excellent G five defense. 606 00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:10,560 Speaker 4: The UAB Blazers. 607 00:27:11,080 --> 00:27:13,480 Speaker 2: And then for the G five, I five are round 608 00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:16,960 Speaker 2: robin play here and go through quickly. We have the Toledo. 609 00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:19,439 Speaker 4: Rockets, the Toledo Rockets. 610 00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:20,920 Speaker 2: Army on the money line. 611 00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:22,880 Speaker 4: The Army Black Knights. 612 00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:25,040 Speaker 2: Maryland minus fourteen. 613 00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:27,720 Speaker 4: The Maryland Terrapins. 614 00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:31,160 Speaker 3: Football, that's what Maryland does. 615 00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:35,520 Speaker 2: New Mexico State plus seventeen. 616 00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:37,800 Speaker 4: The New Mexico State Aggies. 617 00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:41,120 Speaker 2: And you tap on the money line minus one fifteen. 618 00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:44,000 Speaker 4: The U TAP Miners picks up. 619 00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:47,600 Speaker 2: So that's it for the group of five deep dive 620 00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:51,359 Speaker 2: here at the Big Bets on Campus podcast presented by 621 00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:53,639 Speaker 2: Win Bets. We are so glad that you checked us 622 00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:57,320 Speaker 2: out again here in week four, hopefully keeping the positive 623 00:27:57,320 --> 00:28:00,119 Speaker 2: cash flow going for you and as reminder you and 624 00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:03,560 Speaker 2: listening to Colin and Stucky their week four preview of 625 00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:06,560 Speaker 2: the entirety of college football. Bring in the Power five 626 00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:09,320 Speaker 2: and the G five drops Thursday nights into Friday mornings, 627 00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:11,639 Speaker 2: so be sure to check that out as well. For 628 00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:14,440 Speaker 2: Mike Ianello, I'm Mike Calabaries of the Action Network. Thanks 629 00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:15,200 Speaker 2: you so much for listen