1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:07,240 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:16,320 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays 3 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:19,840 Speaker 2: at seven am Eastern on applecar Player, Android Auto with 4 00:00:19,880 --> 00:00:23,320 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get 5 00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:26,239 Speaker 2: your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:30,320 Speaker 3: Abby Joseph Cohen does not remember eighteen fifty six. She's 7 00:00:30,360 --> 00:00:34,280 Speaker 3: too young for this, but she does know what unified 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:38,640 Speaker 3: government is. It's really an interesting thing, a great paragraph. 9 00:00:38,720 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 3: I'm stealing this from News Nation. I has some nice 10 00:00:41,080 --> 00:00:44,959 Speaker 3: history here if I can find it. But unified government 11 00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:50,559 Speaker 3: is more common than we think. There's been twenty three 12 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:54,920 Speaker 3: times Democrats have had unified government, twenty five times Republicans 13 00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 3: have had unified government. Abbi Joseph Cohen, a Columbia University 14 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:03,440 Speaker 3: will get to the markets. Abby, is gridlock good or 15 00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:07,640 Speaker 3: can we get something done with unified government that supports 16 00:01:07,640 --> 00:01:10,280 Speaker 3: American finance and capitalism. 17 00:01:11,640 --> 00:01:14,720 Speaker 4: Wow, that's a big question, Tom, and thank you for 18 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 4: inviting me to be here this morning. It depends what 19 00:01:19,200 --> 00:01:24,320 Speaker 4: unified government decides to do. So clearly, if you have 20 00:01:24,360 --> 00:01:28,440 Speaker 4: a policy agenda that is favorable, unified government is good news. 21 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:31,039 Speaker 4: If not, there are a number of things to watch 22 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:31,479 Speaker 4: out for. 23 00:01:32,959 --> 00:01:36,160 Speaker 5: Abby, What do you expect here? We've had obviously a big, 24 00:01:36,280 --> 00:01:39,800 Speaker 5: big change on the political stage here in the United States. 25 00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:44,000 Speaker 5: What's your expectation of a second Trump presidency and what 26 00:01:44,040 --> 00:01:46,240 Speaker 5: does that mean for markets? We've certainly had a big 27 00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:49,600 Speaker 5: rally yesterday in financial assets. What do you expect going forward? 28 00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:53,920 Speaker 4: Well, let me put the marker out there, which is 29 00:01:54,520 --> 00:01:58,360 Speaker 4: don't know, because we don't yet know, for example, who 30 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 4: the key members of the administry will be. We don't 31 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:05,000 Speaker 4: know who the Secretary of Treasury will be, for example, 32 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:07,400 Speaker 4: nor do we have an idea of who some of 33 00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:10,160 Speaker 4: the other members of the cabinet will be. The other 34 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 4: thing that we're not sure about, of course, is what 35 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:18,040 Speaker 4: happens going forward with regard to regulatory policy. Now there 36 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:22,919 Speaker 4: is a presumption that less regulation is good for the economy. 37 00:02:23,320 --> 00:02:28,160 Speaker 4: That's not always the case. Obviously regulation is not always perfect, 38 00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:30,880 Speaker 4: but there are a number of areas in which looser 39 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:37,480 Speaker 4: regulation is in fact quite destabilizing and inflationary. So, for example, 40 00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:42,920 Speaker 4: looser anti trust policy is typically associated with higher inflation, 41 00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:46,080 Speaker 4: and that's something that we need to keep an eye on. 42 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:48,120 Speaker 4: The Other thing that we need to keep an eye 43 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 4: on because members of the Trump organization have been chatting 44 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:56,120 Speaker 4: about this, and when I say Trump Organization, I'm referring 45 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:59,920 Speaker 4: to the campaign, not the company. They've been talking about 46 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:06,000 Speaker 4: providing a very easy regulatory environment for crypto and that's 47 00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:09,560 Speaker 4: something that could in fact be problematic with regard to 48 00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:14,720 Speaker 4: whether it creates a source of potential instability for the 49 00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 4: financial markets. 50 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:19,640 Speaker 3: Listen to that. I mean, I don't know. Let's do it. 51 00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:22,280 Speaker 3: Let's do a crypto data check here right now. I 52 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:25,800 Speaker 3: quoted the Doze yesterday for the first time ever seventy 53 00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 3: four thousand, seven hundred down eleven hundred. We had seventy 54 00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:31,080 Speaker 3: five thousand print on bitcoin. 55 00:03:30,800 --> 00:03:31,680 Speaker 5: We did for bitcoin. 56 00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:36,920 Speaker 4: Sot's let's let's make the point, however, Tom, and that 57 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:41,160 Speaker 4: is there has been some discussion among Trump advisors that 58 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 4: digital currency could be used on bank balance sheets for 59 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 4: regulatory purposes. And basically, over over time, over history, we 60 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:54,480 Speaker 4: see that the best assets to put on bank balance 61 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:57,440 Speaker 4: sheets are the ones that are not quite so volatile. 62 00:03:57,920 --> 00:04:01,680 Speaker 3: Exactly so politicous. She's just got it down, cult. She's 63 00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 3: laughing at me because she knows exactly where I am 64 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:04,800 Speaker 3: on this poot. 65 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:05,920 Speaker 5: She knows what she's doing. 66 00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:06,480 Speaker 1: Abby. 67 00:04:06,520 --> 00:04:09,280 Speaker 5: I guess the last time we chatted, you were concerned 68 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:11,640 Speaker 5: about concentration in the market, as are a lot of 69 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:13,800 Speaker 5: people when you think about the Magnificent seven or some 70 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 5: of the AI trade here. Has anything changed there? How 71 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:19,480 Speaker 5: do you think about that? Just the health of this 72 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:20,479 Speaker 5: equity market here? 73 00:04:21,680 --> 00:04:25,520 Speaker 4: Yeah, wonderful question, and we if we had a crystal 74 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:28,480 Speaker 4: ball and we knew what earnings were going to be 75 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:31,000 Speaker 4: like in twenty twenty five, we might be able to 76 00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:34,080 Speaker 4: answer it better. Yesterday's close on the S and P 77 00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:38,240 Speaker 4: five hundred in excess of fifty nine hundred is something 78 00:04:38,360 --> 00:04:41,600 Speaker 4: that really is touching the top end of the range 79 00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:45,360 Speaker 4: that many people had expected as it relates to valuation 80 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:48,400 Speaker 4: for the S and P five hundred. So to think 81 00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:50,880 Speaker 4: that the market in general can go higher from here, 82 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 4: you really need to have an enthusiastic view about economic 83 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:57,839 Speaker 4: growth next year. But we also now need to worry 84 00:04:57,920 --> 00:05:02,159 Speaker 4: about the interest rate aspect valuation. While there's been so 85 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:06,600 Speaker 4: much focus about how much the stock market responded yesterday, 86 00:05:06,600 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 4: there was also a big response in the bond market, 87 00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 4: and with higher interest rates that creates more of an 88 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:15,719 Speaker 4: obstacle to equity valuation as well. 89 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:19,240 Speaker 5: Are the earnings that we're seeing abby this quarter last quarter, 90 00:05:19,279 --> 00:05:22,680 Speaker 5: and more importantly, kind of the forecast. Are the earnings 91 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 5: there to support this market or do we really have 92 00:05:24,680 --> 00:05:26,000 Speaker 5: some valuation concerns here? 93 00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:32,919 Speaker 4: Based upon consensus earnings expectations, things look like we are okay, 94 00:05:33,560 --> 00:05:36,880 Speaker 4: but clearly this very little margin for error. So should 95 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:40,560 Speaker 4: there be some unpleasant surprises perhaps in one of the 96 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:44,599 Speaker 4: high profile names on the company side, or perhaps some 97 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:50,679 Speaker 4: unpleasant inflation news or interest rates notably higher from current levels, 98 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:55,800 Speaker 4: That in fact could be problematic, But let's make Let's 99 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:58,400 Speaker 4: go back to the original question, and that is mag 100 00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:01,800 Speaker 4: seven versus the rest of the market. There are much 101 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:06,360 Speaker 4: better valuation opportunities amongst small and MidCap names, and some 102 00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:10,200 Speaker 4: people might also argue that there's some opportunities outside the 103 00:06:10,320 --> 00:06:13,160 Speaker 4: United States. The problem, of course, is that the US 104 00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:16,840 Speaker 4: economy is looking far more robust than many of the 105 00:06:16,960 --> 00:06:18,120 Speaker 4: nations are at this point. 106 00:06:18,279 --> 00:06:21,280 Speaker 3: Eby and I think about, you know, if this had occurred, 107 00:06:21,320 --> 00:06:23,720 Speaker 3: all this maelstrom that we're in right now, it occurred 108 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:26,320 Speaker 3: thirty years ago, you'd be on with Lou Rukaiser Friday 109 00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:29,120 Speaker 3: night and Lou would turn to you and say, okay, 110 00:06:29,400 --> 00:06:32,640 Speaker 3: what is the exuberance ed Yard Denny, who we all 111 00:06:32,720 --> 00:06:37,880 Speaker 3: respect immensely, models out the roaring twenties. He models out 112 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:39,920 Speaker 3: a bull market. I'm not asking you to give me 113 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:43,720 Speaker 3: an S and P call, but are the roaring twenties 114 00:06:43,960 --> 00:06:48,039 Speaker 3: that we get with a Republican House, Senate and presidency. 115 00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:52,520 Speaker 3: Can they lead to an exuberance that causes harm? Or 116 00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:55,480 Speaker 3: can we be managed in our enthusiasm. 117 00:06:57,360 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 4: The exuberance that you were referring to earlier, Tom, when 118 00:07:02,320 --> 00:07:07,120 Speaker 4: Alan Greenspan spoke about it was irrational exuberance. And the 119 00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 4: irrational exuberance that green Span often referred to was not 120 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:13,680 Speaker 4: just in the equity market but also in the fixed 121 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:17,040 Speaker 4: income market. So we need to be looking there very carefully. 122 00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:20,800 Speaker 4: And one of my concerns, and I think needs to 123 00:07:20,840 --> 00:07:25,400 Speaker 4: be carefully monitored by investors, is what will some of 124 00:07:25,440 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 4: these new policies mean with regard to inflation. You know, 125 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:32,680 Speaker 4: the starting point is quite good if you exclude housing, 126 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:35,080 Speaker 4: which I know is a big exclusion because it does 127 00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:39,080 Speaker 4: harm many people. But if you exclude housing prices, right now, 128 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:43,000 Speaker 4: core inflation is already under two percent, so it's a 129 00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:47,680 Speaker 4: great starting point. There are, however, some possibilities that inflation 130 00:07:48,440 --> 00:07:52,920 Speaker 4: could be rising from these levels. So, for example, if 131 00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:57,040 Speaker 4: you have fiscal policy that stimulates demand but not supply, 132 00:07:57,720 --> 00:08:01,600 Speaker 4: all of the things being equal, that's inflation. Getting rid 133 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:06,000 Speaker 4: of the Affordable Care Act is inflationary on a long 134 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:10,320 Speaker 4: term basis. Not paying attention to climate change is inflationary. 135 00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:15,280 Speaker 4: Think about the wildfire right now in California. How much 136 00:08:15,360 --> 00:08:18,920 Speaker 4: that costs to bring under control, to rebuild, and then 137 00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:23,360 Speaker 4: of course insurance costs go up for everyone afterwards. Just 138 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 4: think about insurance costs right now in the state of 139 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 4: Florida because of the bad storms over the last few years. 140 00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:33,680 Speaker 3: Is the fiscal deficit our debt and deficit. Is it 141 00:08:33,840 --> 00:08:36,760 Speaker 3: a constraint for President elect Trump? 142 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:42,000 Speaker 4: It is a constraint only if from a political standpoint 143 00:08:42,320 --> 00:08:45,480 Speaker 4: it is a constraint right now. With the dollar as 144 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:48,360 Speaker 4: robust as it is, I think that they will be 145 00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:52,720 Speaker 4: demand for treasury securities from around the world. And I 146 00:08:52,760 --> 00:08:56,080 Speaker 4: also think that at current rates and maybe higher rates 147 00:08:56,080 --> 00:08:59,520 Speaker 4: that we'll be seeing, there will be demand for those 148 00:08:59,520 --> 00:09:02,840 Speaker 4: security and we can finance it. The question, of course, 149 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:06,559 Speaker 4: is the long term one. If we have a situation 150 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:11,240 Speaker 4: where we in fact see lower growth in population and 151 00:09:11,320 --> 00:09:15,840 Speaker 4: labor force, that does not bode well for example, for 152 00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:19,439 Speaker 4: the funding for social security and other needs of the government. 153 00:09:19,960 --> 00:09:22,040 Speaker 3: And there's something going on in America. For those of 154 00:09:22,040 --> 00:09:25,440 Speaker 3: you that listen every day, it's just plain and simple. 155 00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:28,920 Speaker 3: I disaggregate. There are the haves the have nots. I 156 00:09:28,920 --> 00:09:31,920 Speaker 3: think we saw that within the tension, the disparity, the 157 00:09:31,920 --> 00:09:35,000 Speaker 3: polarization of this election. And I want to wrap it 158 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:38,720 Speaker 3: around the Nobel Prize of Osimo Blu Robinson and Simon Johnson. 159 00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:41,000 Speaker 3: We hope to speak to Simon Johnson here in the 160 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:46,200 Speaker 3: coming days the Laureate on productivity his book Power and Progress, 161 00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:50,920 Speaker 3: Abby Joseph Cohen with US now Columbia University. Abby, there's 162 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:53,480 Speaker 3: a labor input, there's a capital input, and there's a 163 00:09:53,559 --> 00:09:58,719 Speaker 3: strange thing total total factor productivity. Bill Easterley at a 164 00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:02,600 Speaker 3: school south of Columbi makes clear it's a huge part 165 00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:07,840 Speaker 3: of economic growth. Is our productivity gain going to an 166 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:11,360 Speaker 3: ever narrower part of the American public. 167 00:10:12,920 --> 00:10:17,120 Speaker 4: I think you've answered your question and the answer is yes, 168 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:20,199 Speaker 4: of course it has been. And one of the things 169 00:10:20,280 --> 00:10:24,080 Speaker 4: that any new administration needs to address is to make 170 00:10:24,120 --> 00:10:27,560 Speaker 4: sure that all of our people feel that they're participating 171 00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:31,960 Speaker 4: in the American growth and the American dream. And one 172 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:34,480 Speaker 4: of the things that we need to focus on, of course, 173 00:10:34,679 --> 00:10:38,720 Speaker 4: is long term investment, by which I mean are we 174 00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:43,080 Speaker 4: investing in productivity, are we investing in education in our people? 175 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:48,720 Speaker 4: And are we investing in the scientific merit and the 176 00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:53,120 Speaker 4: scientific progress that gave us so much economic growth over 177 00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:57,439 Speaker 4: the past few decades. And the answer to those questions 178 00:10:57,520 --> 00:11:00,520 Speaker 4: will really have a dramatic impact on all of us. 179 00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:04,480 Speaker 4: One of the things I'm concerned about, quite frankly, is 180 00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:10,520 Speaker 4: something called Schedule F, which has been talked about during 181 00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:13,160 Speaker 4: the last few years. It was something that was in 182 00:11:13,200 --> 00:11:17,840 Speaker 4: fact enacted by the prior Trump administration, but was gotten 183 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:21,319 Speaker 4: rid of immediately when mister Biden came into office. Now 184 00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:24,640 Speaker 4: what is it. It's basically not looking at the top 185 00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:28,440 Speaker 4: level of political appointees in the US government, but the 186 00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:32,359 Speaker 4: next forty thousand. So there are ten thousand political appointees. 187 00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:35,600 Speaker 4: Below them are the forty thousand experts in a variety 188 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:39,359 Speaker 4: of categories, and under Schedule F, many of these positions 189 00:11:39,400 --> 00:11:43,920 Speaker 4: would be converted to political appointments rather than appointments based 190 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:46,640 Speaker 4: upon what do you know? And I worry that this 191 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:49,800 Speaker 4: will affect, for example, a number of our science agencies 192 00:11:50,160 --> 00:11:53,000 Speaker 4: and will also affect a number of the agencies that 193 00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:59,439 Speaker 4: are directly involved in boosting productivity throughout the economy. 194 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:02,400 Speaker 5: Again, we've been so focused on the political agenda over 195 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:04,640 Speaker 5: the last several days that we almost forget we've got 196 00:12:04,679 --> 00:12:08,040 Speaker 5: a FED meeting today and that historically has had an 197 00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:09,719 Speaker 5: impact on these markets. 198 00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:13,319 Speaker 3: Are future FED Chairman Abby Joseph Colin. I think she's 199 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:14,839 Speaker 3: shortlisted by President Trump. 200 00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:17,560 Speaker 5: Very good, Abby. What do you what do you what 201 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:19,120 Speaker 5: do you expect to hear from this FED today? 202 00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:24,240 Speaker 4: You guys might recall that I started my career at 203 00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 4: the FED. I was a very junior economist, and I 204 00:12:27,640 --> 00:12:33,480 Speaker 4: don't think I'm being invited back. The FED always works 205 00:12:33,559 --> 00:12:36,800 Speaker 4: best when it is a political when it looks at 206 00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:39,080 Speaker 4: the facts that it has in front of it and 207 00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:42,040 Speaker 4: makes a decision about what needs to get done. Obviously, 208 00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:47,000 Speaker 4: they do a forecast based upon their prospects for the economy, 209 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:50,640 Speaker 4: and at a time like this, whenever a new administration 210 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:53,720 Speaker 4: comes in, you're never quite sure what the new policies 211 00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:56,520 Speaker 4: are really going to be. There's a big difference between 212 00:12:56,760 --> 00:13:00,280 Speaker 4: the campaign and governing. So I believe that the FED 213 00:13:00,400 --> 00:13:03,839 Speaker 4: will make an apolitical decision. They'll look at the data 214 00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:07,559 Speaker 4: in front of them, which basically says the US economy 215 00:13:07,640 --> 00:13:11,840 Speaker 4: is doing well. Inflation has come down except for housing 216 00:13:11,880 --> 00:13:14,720 Speaker 4: as I mentioned before, and of course the price of eggs, 217 00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:18,480 Speaker 4: which the Fed can control because of Avian flu. And 218 00:13:18,520 --> 00:13:21,080 Speaker 4: I think the markets have it right in terms of 219 00:13:21,360 --> 00:13:25,160 Speaker 4: expecting a twenty five basis point reduction in the FED 220 00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 4: Funds rate. But let's be clear. What is happening in 221 00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:32,120 Speaker 4: recent weeks, of course, is that intermediate and long yields 222 00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 4: are going up. So what we're ending up with is 223 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:38,559 Speaker 4: a steeper yield curve, a more normal looking yell curve. 224 00:13:39,000 --> 00:13:41,560 Speaker 4: And who borrows at the FED funds rate? You know, 225 00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:46,760 Speaker 4: it's not individuals, it's not corporations, it's banks, So the 226 00:13:46,800 --> 00:13:50,440 Speaker 4: banks will be borrowing at a somewhat lower FED Funds rate. 227 00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:54,040 Speaker 4: The thing to watch, particularly if you're an equity investor, 228 00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:58,120 Speaker 4: is what's happening at the intermediate and long yield level. 229 00:13:58,920 --> 00:14:01,040 Speaker 4: And yesterday those yield all moved higher. 230 00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:06,440 Speaker 5: So abby we're eighty percent through earnings for the S 231 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:08,959 Speaker 5: and P five hundred here, what have you seen? 232 00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:09,800 Speaker 1: What have you heard? 233 00:14:09,880 --> 00:14:13,559 Speaker 5: What? In terms of guidance and outlook here from this 234 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:15,440 Speaker 5: earning cycle for corporate America. 235 00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:21,200 Speaker 4: The cycle has gone well. The economy underneath it has 236 00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:25,280 Speaker 4: been growing well, not as quickly as it was in 237 00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:28,640 Speaker 4: the immediate post pandemic period, but it's a good, solid, 238 00:14:28,760 --> 00:14:33,400 Speaker 4: sustainable rate of increase. What I often look at, as 239 00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:36,400 Speaker 4: do so many others, particularly this time of year, is 240 00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:39,240 Speaker 4: the forward guidance. And what we have seen is that 241 00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:42,560 Speaker 4: the forward guidance, why and large, is good. There are 242 00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:46,800 Speaker 4: some exceptions. There are some companies with idiosyncratic problems that 243 00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:50,760 Speaker 4: have decided not to issue forward guidance, but in general, 244 00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:55,080 Speaker 4: what companies are saying is consistent with the consensus economic forecast, 245 00:14:55,400 --> 00:14:57,920 Speaker 4: which is that there is no recession on the near 246 00:14:58,000 --> 00:15:01,440 Speaker 4: term horizon. For the United States. Growth is pretty good, 247 00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:04,800 Speaker 4: and it's good enough to generate not just profits but 248 00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:10,400 Speaker 4: also jobs. Last month's data were disrupted by strikes and 249 00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:13,960 Speaker 4: storms and so on, but it looks like we're creating 250 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:18,680 Speaker 4: enough new jobs for everyone who wants to look and 251 00:15:18,760 --> 00:15:22,480 Speaker 4: get one. There's obviously friction. People need to take some 252 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:25,280 Speaker 4: time to find the right job for them, but this 253 00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 4: is an economy that's doing quite well. 254 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:29,920 Speaker 3: Abby Joseph Coin, thank you so much. Thrilled to have 255 00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:33,280 Speaker 3: you on here. Two days after the nation votes Abby 256 00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:40,520 Speaker 3: Joseph Cohen of Columbia University. 257 00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:46,680 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live 258 00:15:46,800 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 2: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter. Listen on 259 00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:52,680 Speaker 2: Apple car Play and and Brote Auto with a Bloomberg 260 00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:55,200 Speaker 2: Business app, or watch us live on YouTube. 261 00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:57,760 Speaker 3: I'm not going to mince words. We protect the copyright 262 00:15:57,840 --> 00:16:01,400 Speaker 3: of all of our guests. Go to Morgan's family to 263 00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:06,120 Speaker 3: get a jewel of a lengthy post election report by 264 00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:11,200 Speaker 3: Monica where ahead of US policy at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. 265 00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:14,360 Speaker 3: Let me just get to exhibit one because it's sixteen 266 00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:17,840 Speaker 3: hundred Pennsylvania Avenue. They're going to get to Exhibit one. 267 00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:22,320 Speaker 3: Net interest outlays could account for nearly two thirds of 268 00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:26,280 Speaker 3: the federal deficit. Forget about all the happy happy what's 269 00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:28,880 Speaker 3: the budget constraint on the president elect? 270 00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:32,400 Speaker 6: Yeah, that's a great question. Your first Thanks for having 271 00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 6: you guys. It's great to be back. 272 00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:37,760 Speaker 4: But when your last time, yeah, it. 273 00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:41,320 Speaker 3: Was Zetler like, it was a huge continue fantastic. 274 00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:44,920 Speaker 6: Now, when we're thinking about the debt and deficit, what's 275 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:48,520 Speaker 6: important here is if you have a unified government, if 276 00:16:48,520 --> 00:16:51,800 Speaker 6: we get to a place where Congress is unified, debt 277 00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:54,480 Speaker 6: becomes less of a factor. Yes, we have this ballooning 278 00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:57,680 Speaker 6: interest rate piece, it's going to have to become part 279 00:16:57,680 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 6: of the discussion. But when you have you by government, 280 00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:02,800 Speaker 6: that's when time to get your wishless items through and 281 00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 6: so it becomes less about fiscal responsibility. So the best 282 00:17:05,840 --> 00:17:08,320 Speaker 6: thing for the Detton deficit is actually to have that 283 00:17:08,440 --> 00:17:13,240 Speaker 6: gridlock Congress because then fiscal responsibility because the calling card. 284 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:17,960 Speaker 3: So what's going to happen here without a gridlock Congress? 285 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:20,280 Speaker 6: Yeah. So, I mean, if you're looking at just the 286 00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:24,119 Speaker 6: baseline for the Tax Custom Jobs Act and you're extending that, 287 00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:27,760 Speaker 6: it adds about five trillion to the federal deficit ten 288 00:17:27,840 --> 00:17:30,920 Speaker 6: year period, ten year period. What it doesn't account for 289 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:33,879 Speaker 6: these estimates is any kind of government reduction or efficiency 290 00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:36,920 Speaker 6: measures that Trump has talked about Musk measures, musk measures, 291 00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:38,399 Speaker 6: if you want to call it that. I like that, 292 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:42,439 Speaker 6: I might use it copyright, but tail gets it. You know. 293 00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:44,399 Speaker 6: The other factor is that there's no other sort of 294 00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:47,760 Speaker 6: revenue raisers or clawbacks. So, for example, if they rolled 295 00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:50,400 Speaker 6: back some of the clean energy tax credits, money that 296 00:17:50,440 --> 00:17:52,280 Speaker 6: they can bring back into the government, well. 297 00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:55,520 Speaker 3: A clawback at home is where you order the offspring, 298 00:17:55,560 --> 00:17:58,520 Speaker 3: they have to eat the left over seamless exactly. 299 00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:02,040 Speaker 5: That's a clawback monica. They say financial services, and we 300 00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:05,800 Speaker 5: saw the big stocks. JP Morgan, we're sending Goldman sacs yesterday. 301 00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:09,840 Speaker 5: Just sore Yep talk to us about financial services and 302 00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:13,640 Speaker 5: how a Trump and a Republican administration Republican Congress will 303 00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:15,199 Speaker 5: look at the financial services industry. 304 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:15,440 Speaker 3: Yeah. 305 00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:17,359 Speaker 6: I mean a lot of the rip from yesterday is 306 00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:21,000 Speaker 6: because of the deregulation promise, and that's what you're likely 307 00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:23,960 Speaker 6: to see, especially with financials. You're likely to see an 308 00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:27,360 Speaker 6: SEC that is shaped differently and let has different leadership, 309 00:18:27,560 --> 00:18:31,320 Speaker 6: as well as potential push on the basil three endgame 310 00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:34,640 Speaker 6: provisions to be looser and more flexible on the cap requirements. 311 00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:37,479 Speaker 6: So that's going to be, you know, a really big factor. 312 00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:41,920 Speaker 6: You know, other areas that are deregulatory rate or AI tech, crypto, 313 00:18:42,320 --> 00:18:45,240 Speaker 6: so we're likely to continue to see tailings in those areas. 314 00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:45,879 Speaker 1: How about it. 315 00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:48,480 Speaker 5: I think if I'm an M and a banker or 316 00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:51,760 Speaker 5: an M and a attorney, I feel pretty good now, 317 00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:54,399 Speaker 5: because I mean the regulatory environment that from the Federal 318 00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:56,880 Speaker 5: Trade Commission to the Department of Justice it's been tough 319 00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:59,959 Speaker 5: to get deals done and improved. Is that also a benefit? 320 00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:02,640 Speaker 6: That is going to be a huge beneficiary. Lena Kon 321 00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:05,920 Speaker 6: does not have a job in January, right, I mean, 322 00:19:05,960 --> 00:19:08,360 Speaker 6: she probably will be employed, but not in the government. 323 00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:10,919 Speaker 6: And so at this point, you know, that's going to 324 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:13,040 Speaker 6: be an area that we look to. You could see 325 00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:15,159 Speaker 6: m and A activity pick up as a response to that. 326 00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:18,680 Speaker 5: Are you paying attention to like a cabinet, a Trump cabinet, 327 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:20,560 Speaker 5: because I'm not sure where the Trump cabinet is going 328 00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:22,679 Speaker 5: to come from or when we're going to hear about that, 329 00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:26,400 Speaker 5: but my assumption is that's going to be important as 330 00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 5: to where policy goes. 331 00:19:27,600 --> 00:19:30,480 Speaker 6: Yeah, and we're definitely paying attention to that. We're paying 332 00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:33,439 Speaker 6: particular attention to, you know, who's you know, adding up 333 00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:36,600 Speaker 6: the treasury. One of the things that is critical that 334 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:40,280 Speaker 6: we saw even at the RNC convention was that this 335 00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:42,760 Speaker 6: is really Trump's party, So a lot of the rank 336 00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:45,960 Speaker 6: and file are officially sort of sideline. At this point, 337 00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:48,920 Speaker 6: the party has changed, the mood has changed, and so 338 00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:52,160 Speaker 6: it'll be a lot of folks that have ideological similarities 339 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:52,560 Speaker 6: with Trump. 340 00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:57,720 Speaker 3: Part of the grid arm is on your Rezumi, director 341 00:19:57,760 --> 00:20:01,080 Speaker 3: of capital budget and economic deve development point the City 342 00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:03,600 Speaker 3: of New York, it means it gets great Yankee stickers. Yeah, 343 00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:06,960 Speaker 3: not that that means anything, Monica. Just to cut to 344 00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:12,040 Speaker 3: the chase with the immigration shock of this election, how 345 00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:19,000 Speaker 3: do we deport exit remove a migrant immigrant from say 346 00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:21,960 Speaker 3: New York City or Chicago, doesn't really matter. How do 347 00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:25,400 Speaker 3: you actually budgetarily affect that. 348 00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:29,520 Speaker 6: It's going to be greater funding towards the Department of 349 00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:31,560 Speaker 6: Homeland Security. That's gonna be the first place that they 350 00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:34,080 Speaker 6: that they increase spending. We think that that's going to 351 00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:38,320 Speaker 6: be underneath a national defense uh and security budget line. Now, 352 00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:41,040 Speaker 6: if we're thinking about the actual practicality of it state 353 00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:41,960 Speaker 6: by state. 354 00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:43,359 Speaker 3: Right state by state, it's. 355 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:45,720 Speaker 6: Going to be an issue. You're going to have New 356 00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:49,200 Speaker 6: York you know, fight to keep people you know safe 357 00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:52,440 Speaker 6: for you know, a sanctuary, especially in sanctuary city structures. 358 00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:53,760 Speaker 6: That's going to be a problem. 359 00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:56,120 Speaker 3: That's going to be an Albany issue in the case 360 00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:58,440 Speaker 3: of New York, not a New York City issue. 361 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:01,080 Speaker 6: New York City could get involved, but Albany is going 362 00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:04,200 Speaker 6: to probably be leading the charge. Now, the thing that's 363 00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:07,800 Speaker 6: important here is that the states that are friendly to 364 00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:10,960 Speaker 6: these policies, you know, will open the doors and allow 365 00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 6: for a smooth process. Doesn't mean that the DHS and 366 00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:16,880 Speaker 6: the federal government doesn't have jurisdiction in parts of New York. 367 00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:19,200 Speaker 6: I'm not the expert on that, but I can tell 368 00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:21,760 Speaker 6: you that the legal battles in the Blue states that 369 00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:26,200 Speaker 6: especially take their sanctuary city responsibilities you know seriously, that 370 00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:28,719 Speaker 6: could become, you know, a real problem for the administration. 371 00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:31,320 Speaker 3: Thank you so much to you in the Morgan Stanley 372 00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:33,600 Speaker 3: for your perspective on this. We'd love to have you 373 00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:37,680 Speaker 3: in as this debate continues into two thousand and twenty five. 374 00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:41,800 Speaker 3: Monica Buerra is head of US Policy for Morgan Stanley. 375 00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:46,240 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 376 00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:49,520 Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 377 00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:52,439 Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 378 00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:55,639 Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 379 00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:58,760 Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 380 00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:02,520 Speaker 3: Jackie Bowie Sarah partnered on YouTube. You can see that 381 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:07,200 Speaker 3: Jackie Bowie is esconced in this November with the Red Poppy. 382 00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:10,960 Speaker 3: Tell our American audience you have a jeweled red poppy. 383 00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:14,320 Speaker 3: It is lovely tell us of the British and World 384 00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:16,760 Speaker 3: War One and November eleventh and the red poppy. 385 00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:19,720 Speaker 1: Yeah well, I mean it's such a big day for 386 00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:23,119 Speaker 1: us in the UK where and whilst the poppy is 387 00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:27,159 Speaker 1: to represent also the poppy fields after the war ended, 388 00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:31,560 Speaker 1: the celebration and recognition on the eleventh of November is 389 00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:34,320 Speaker 1: really through all the wars and people who've given their 390 00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:38,400 Speaker 1: lives for their country. So yeah, we take it very seriously. 391 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:41,680 Speaker 1: You can buy lots of different types of poppies now 392 00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:44,879 Speaker 1: and obviously all of that the nation goes to the 393 00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:47,120 Speaker 1: Royal British Legion for the veterans. 394 00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:50,199 Speaker 3: Very good. Let us talk about the loneliness of the 395 00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:54,200 Speaker 3: United Kingdom. We have a left government, a labor government, 396 00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:58,120 Speaker 3: Tories or Trance. John Burns Murdoch has a fabulous chart 397 00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:03,000 Speaker 3: today showing the crater the Tories versus Italy versus Trump 398 00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:06,080 Speaker 3: in the election here in the United States. How lone 399 00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:09,520 Speaker 3: is the United Kingdom right now? Within G seven. 400 00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:14,600 Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, it certainly feels like some of the political 401 00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:16,200 Speaker 1: statements that were made in the run up to the 402 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:19,919 Speaker 1: election and afterwards are really divergent from what's happening in 403 00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:23,399 Speaker 1: the rest of Europe. We talked briefly obviously this morning, 404 00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:27,920 Speaker 1: just on the stance on immigration in different countries, taking 405 00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:31,200 Speaker 1: a slightly stronger view on asylum seekers countries that were 406 00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:35,520 Speaker 1: very pro immigration before. So the Labor government have come 407 00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:39,679 Speaker 1: in and kind of paused the previous government's route to 408 00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:45,840 Speaker 1: taking illegal immigration illegal migrants to Rwanda. That was the 409 00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:48,679 Speaker 1: plan to take them for the processing and then decide 410 00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:50,400 Speaker 1: whether they had the right to remain in the UK. 411 00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:54,720 Speaker 1: So that plan is now being completely taken away and 412 00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:57,639 Speaker 1: we're just kind of waiting to see. So yeah, it 413 00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 1: does feel that we're the UK is sort of out 414 00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:02,160 Speaker 1: in a line, which is interesting, right because we're an island, 415 00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:06,080 Speaker 1: so if anything, we should potentially have a stronger position. 416 00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:10,119 Speaker 5: So the Bank of a cut rates again today. It 417 00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:11,960 Speaker 5: was a sense of kind of what the Bank of 418 00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:14,199 Speaker 5: England is thinking in terms of interest rates and the 419 00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:15,320 Speaker 5: economy in the UK. 420 00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:19,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, So, I mean twenty five basis points was as expected. 421 00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:23,680 Speaker 1: If we had taught just a week ago before the budget, 422 00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:26,240 Speaker 1: we would have said twenty five basis points for November 423 00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:29,800 Speaker 1: and a further twenty five likely in December, and that's 424 00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:33,440 Speaker 1: been the big shift. So the UK budget was absolutely 425 00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:36,919 Speaker 1: about tax raising, about spending in public services with no 426 00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:40,479 Speaker 1: conditions of improvement and productivity, and that has led the 427 00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:44,560 Speaker 1: market to start to reduce their expectation that we'll get 428 00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:47,480 Speaker 1: a further twenty five in December. I think the other 429 00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:50,119 Speaker 1: thing to bear in mind is everyone's focused in this 430 00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:53,080 Speaker 1: headline inflation target, which you know, at the two percent 431 00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:55,760 Speaker 1: we've obviously the Bank of England is just out so 432 00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:58,159 Speaker 1: we've not kind of digested the full statement yet, but 433 00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:01,160 Speaker 1: it looks like the inflation forecast for next year we'll 434 00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:03,880 Speaker 1: be around two point six two point seven percent, So 435 00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:07,800 Speaker 1: you're starting to see that you're not getting inflation at 436 00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:08,800 Speaker 1: that two percent target. 437 00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:12,199 Speaker 3: Why is the American Catherine man as a member of 438 00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:15,880 Speaker 3: the Bank of England dissenting and saying don't cut rates? 439 00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:20,119 Speaker 3: Is it a phenominal GDP crow she is? 440 00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:23,400 Speaker 1: I mean she's always been kind of on that side 441 00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:25,320 Speaker 1: of the fence if you look at her voting history, 442 00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:28,600 Speaker 1: so she's been consistent for one. But yeah, you're right, 443 00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:30,360 Speaker 1: I mean an eight to one vote with her being 444 00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:34,760 Speaker 1: the only center in this time round. She continues to 445 00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:39,160 Speaker 1: focus on that inflation number and particularly the underlying services 446 00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:42,480 Speaker 1: inflation and wage inflation in the UK, saying that this 447 00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:46,080 Speaker 1: inflation issue is not under control, so rates should be 448 00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:47,440 Speaker 1: kept higher. 449 00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:48,400 Speaker 3: All right. 450 00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:50,520 Speaker 5: If Tom and I were to come over to the UK, 451 00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:52,800 Speaker 5: which we're working on that as we speak through her 452 00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:55,720 Speaker 5: and go to the Highlands or the Midlands, and what 453 00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:57,360 Speaker 5: are the person on the street, what are they saying 454 00:25:57,400 --> 00:25:59,960 Speaker 5: about the economy in the UK these days? 455 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:02,679 Speaker 1: I would say it's very similar to the US in 456 00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:06,600 Speaker 1: that everyone is talking about and we say this cost 457 00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:09,560 Speaker 1: of living as a catch holl and the major things 458 00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:11,199 Speaker 1: for the UK, which I think is the same in 459 00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:15,240 Speaker 1: the US as food prices. The second yeah, And the 460 00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:17,720 Speaker 1: second thing for the UK, which I don't feel you 461 00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:23,040 Speaker 1: get the same situation here is fuel prices. So we 462 00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:26,760 Speaker 1: have huge taxes on our fuel fuel underlying fuel prices 463 00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:30,240 Speaker 1: just higher in the UK. So if you're driving, you know, 464 00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:33,720 Speaker 1: a combustion engine, non electric car, and the cost of 465 00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:36,880 Speaker 1: filling up your car and heating your house has gone 466 00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:40,040 Speaker 1: up massively. I mean, I think my utility bills are 467 00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:41,440 Speaker 1: probably up about forty five percent. 468 00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:45,560 Speaker 3: How can labor ram through tax increases? 469 00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:47,639 Speaker 1: Good question. 470 00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:52,720 Speaker 3: The debate is very different from here. There's a huge 471 00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:55,840 Speaker 3: understanding that mister Trump Day one Day two, Day three 472 00:26:56,160 --> 00:27:00,680 Speaker 3: will extend or codify if you will, the Trump tax cuts. 473 00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:05,600 Speaker 3: Is it just genuine Clement et Lee austerity from the 474 00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:10,000 Speaker 3: middle of the twentieth century. Is it just England demands 475 00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:11,159 Speaker 3: to be austere. 476 00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:14,639 Speaker 1: Well you would say it's the opposite, right, because the 477 00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:18,800 Speaker 1: government are spending like billyo despite the deficit being where 478 00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:21,399 Speaker 1: it is, again similar to other countries, the UK is 479 00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:24,840 Speaker 1: not alone in that. But to put through all these 480 00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:28,480 Speaker 1: tax increases which are to support the public sector. So 481 00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:30,960 Speaker 1: let's look at where that spending is going. You know, 482 00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:35,400 Speaker 1: when you're increasing taxes, particularly on employers and national insurance taxation, 483 00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:39,320 Speaker 1: there's nothing in it which has growth oriented, which is 484 00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:42,679 Speaker 1: why it was taken so negatively. I don't think anyone 485 00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:45,960 Speaker 1: has any issues with government spending if you then end up, 486 00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:50,000 Speaker 1: you know, really boosting growth. But after the budget was announced, 487 00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:53,440 Speaker 1: the people saw the extent of the total spend over 488 00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:55,600 Speaker 1: the next four years, right, but no change to the 489 00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:56,600 Speaker 1: growth forecast, and. 490 00:27:56,680 --> 00:27:59,960 Speaker 3: Like literally almost all of the Tottenham Spurs soccer team 491 00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:03,439 Speaker 3: threatening to leave the country, which actually would probably be 492 00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:04,680 Speaker 3: constructive for time. 493 00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:08,720 Speaker 5: For exactly just about I don't know how many years 494 00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:12,720 Speaker 5: on we are from seventy eight years on from Brexit, 495 00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:14,760 Speaker 5: what's the feeling today, I mean, what's the case. 496 00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:21,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, people have stopped complaining about it. I think the 497 00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:24,199 Speaker 1: one thing I would say though, is it's been really 498 00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:27,679 Speaker 1: difficult to separate out the impact of Brexit on the 499 00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:31,440 Speaker 1: economy because we hit COVID right and you're starting to say, well, 500 00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:34,960 Speaker 1: it's the UK situation because of Brexit or because of COVID. 501 00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:38,479 Speaker 1: If you dig really deep into it and looking at 502 00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:41,120 Speaker 1: some of the trade numbers, etc. It looks like the 503 00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:45,440 Speaker 1: UK is actually done. Okay, okay, So, but it's. 504 00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:47,480 Speaker 5: A lot of the dumb question of the day. When 505 00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:50,760 Speaker 5: you fly to Berlin or Geneva, do you have to 506 00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:53,200 Speaker 5: go through customs now and passport control? 507 00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:55,720 Speaker 1: Yes, so you always had to go through passport control, 508 00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:58,080 Speaker 1: but you were classed as an EU traveler. 509 00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:01,640 Speaker 5: So now you're not. You're not, and it's that much 510 00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:02,560 Speaker 5: more difficult now. 511 00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:05,719 Speaker 1: It depends where you go. So interestingly, if you go 512 00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:08,000 Speaker 1: to so I had a few trips in the summer 513 00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:12,120 Speaker 1: fortunately to Palma and New YORKA, so it's been you 514 00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:14,720 Speaker 1: just go through the electronic gates as normal. The only 515 00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:17,160 Speaker 1: difference is you have to get a STEMP if you 516 00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:20,840 Speaker 1: go to Patis or any French airport, you are in the. 517 00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:26,760 Speaker 3: That's the news you use. Yeah, I was sort of 518 00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:29,760 Speaker 3: shocked how easy it was when I went over to 519 00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:33,760 Speaker 3: Rome last Wen Gates. But the luggage took hours. The 520 00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:37,680 Speaker 3: luggage was an absolute outrage. It was like people were 521 00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:39,040 Speaker 3: really upset and. 522 00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:40,280 Speaker 5: You've got many pieces of luggage. 523 00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:43,080 Speaker 3: We have like Emily Rowland's coming in from John Hancock 524 00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:46,640 Speaker 3: today and she's been dead on about American exceptionalism by 525 00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:50,560 Speaker 3: large cap America. Can we buy large cap Footsie? 526 00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:56,840 Speaker 1: You can, but the definition of large cap in your 527 00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:59,800 Speaker 1: global world, I mean large cap Footsie is not going 528 00:29:59,840 --> 00:30:03,560 Speaker 1: to be very large cap for you Britain. And the 529 00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:05,760 Speaker 1: other thing, I think we talked about this when I 530 00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:07,600 Speaker 1: was in before about I don't remember. 531 00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:11,719 Speaker 3: I don't remember when I talked to last I remember 532 00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:15,600 Speaker 3: you dinner. 533 00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:19,120 Speaker 1: By the interesting thing for UK stocks is, and you've 534 00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:21,320 Speaker 1: seen this from your market where there's a lot of 535 00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:25,160 Speaker 1: the larger companies deciding to dealist from the UK and 536 00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:28,280 Speaker 1: choose to list in the US because they have a 537 00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:31,840 Speaker 1: broader investor base and they you know, arguably their stock 538 00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:35,480 Speaker 1: gets better valued. So a combination of that and the 539 00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:38,040 Speaker 1: fact that private equity have been doing a lot of 540 00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:42,200 Speaker 1: take privates in the UK, so d listing companies. The 541 00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:44,680 Speaker 1: choice of things to invest in the UK is getting 542 00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:45,480 Speaker 1: smaller and smaller. 543 00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:47,800 Speaker 3: Jackie, thank you, what a brief Jackie Boy, thank you 544 00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:53,160 Speaker 3: so much for chatam at Europe. 545 00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:59,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 546 00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:02,440 Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple car Play and 547 00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:05,400 Speaker 2: Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also 548 00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:09,080 Speaker 2: watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on 549 00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:10,200 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg terminal. 550 00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:14,120 Speaker 3: With that question, our conversation of the day on the 551 00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:18,360 Speaker 3: future of the left, the future of the Democratic Party. Thrilled, 552 00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:21,880 Speaker 3: just really thrilled. Christina Greer could join us from Fordham. 553 00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:25,960 Speaker 3: She's truly expert on the pulse of a nation that 554 00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:28,600 Speaker 3: I guess was defeated we would say two days ago. 555 00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:31,240 Speaker 3: We'll talk to Professor Greer about that. A lot of 556 00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:35,000 Speaker 3: investment ideas as well. Again with futures at fourteen, let's 557 00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:38,320 Speaker 3: get right to it. We're on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. 558 00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:43,640 Speaker 3: Our polls out there. Please take the poll out at YouTube. 559 00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:46,960 Speaker 3: Bloomberg Podcast on your commute this morning, Apple car Play, 560 00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:50,920 Speaker 3: Android Auto and good morning in Washington ninety ninety one 561 00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:54,680 Speaker 3: FM up to Boston ninety two to nine in Boston 562 00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:59,200 Speaker 3: from the Interactive Brokers Studios, the Bloomberg Business Flash Lisa Matteo. 563 00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:02,800 Speaker 7: After the dowstart, so it's biggest gain in two years yesterday. 564 00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:06,080 Speaker 7: Right now, down Future is little changed, up about ten points. 565 00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:08,640 Speaker 7: NAZAC Future is up four tens and percent ninety nine points. 566 00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:10,880 Speaker 7: We have SMP futures up two tens and percent or 567 00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:13,360 Speaker 7: fifteen points. We have the two year yield at four 568 00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:16,280 Speaker 7: point two two percent, that's down four basis points. They 569 00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:18,560 Speaker 7: yield on the ten year four point three nine percent, 570 00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:21,800 Speaker 7: that's down three basis points. To currency is a difference 571 00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:24,440 Speaker 7: here too, the dollar retreating. It had its best day 572 00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:28,480 Speaker 7: since twenty twenty two yesterday. Japanese yen stronger, Euro, British 573 00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:30,800 Speaker 7: pound stronger. We have bitcoin, what a difference a day 574 00:32:30,840 --> 00:32:33,840 Speaker 7: makes there too, down one and a half percent after 575 00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:36,320 Speaker 7: it rallied almost ten percent yesterday. It's now at about 576 00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:39,880 Speaker 7: seventy four thousand. Checking in with two stocks that really 577 00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:42,920 Speaker 7: stored after Donald Trump was elected president. Shares of dj 578 00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:46,360 Speaker 7: T they're now down fourteen percent, and shares of Tesla 579 00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:49,120 Speaker 7: down about three tens of percent. Moving over to shares 580 00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:53,120 Speaker 7: of Qualcomm. That's the world's biggest seller smartphone processors. Well, 581 00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:55,320 Speaker 7: they're up five percent, shares of five percent and had 582 00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:58,600 Speaker 7: a bullech sales forecast. Smartphone demand picked up, but then 583 00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:01,000 Speaker 7: you have ARM holdings down three percent. It had a 584 00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:02,880 Speaker 7: little bit more of a tentative outlook. That is your 585 00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:04,960 Speaker 7: Bloomberg business flash, Tom and Paul. 586 00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:08,240 Speaker 3: Thanks so much. Lisa greatly appreciate it. You know, we've 587 00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:10,840 Speaker 3: been talking Eric and as we pieced together the show 588 00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:13,720 Speaker 3: of who we want on to pick up the pieces 589 00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:18,200 Speaker 3: after concession speech yesterday by Vice President Harris, and the 590 00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:21,520 Speaker 3: first name that came up holds Court at Fordham University. 591 00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:25,520 Speaker 3: She holds an absolute franchise. There's no other way to 592 00:33:25,560 --> 00:33:30,120 Speaker 3: put it on blacks within the political process in America, 593 00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:33,520 Speaker 3: there's one item which I just say, I love the type. 594 00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:35,560 Speaker 3: I mean, she sits all day and tries to figure 595 00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:39,880 Speaker 3: out these titles. A nation divided still, how a vote 596 00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:43,640 Speaker 3: for Trump says more about the voter than the candidate himself. 597 00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:49,000 Speaker 3: That in twenty seventeen, Christina Greer joins us this morning. Christina, 598 00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:54,520 Speaker 3: there was an eloquence in Vice President Harris's exit yesterday, 599 00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:59,960 Speaker 3: how do the Democrats pick up the pieces? 600 00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:03,000 Speaker 8: And good morning gentlemen. I do think that the Democrats 601 00:34:03,040 --> 00:34:04,720 Speaker 8: need to come to the table and try and figure 602 00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:07,479 Speaker 8: out what happened. Now, keep in mind, it's barely been 603 00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:10,160 Speaker 8: thirty six hours, so this all feels a little bit 604 00:34:10,160 --> 00:34:14,560 Speaker 8: like Monday morning quarterbacking Go Eagles. So as the Democrats 605 00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:17,560 Speaker 8: try and figure out a fifty state strategy, as they 606 00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:20,799 Speaker 8: try and rebuild state houses across the country, as they 607 00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:26,319 Speaker 8: try and tap into whatever policy issues beyond just economic issues. Now, 608 00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:30,080 Speaker 8: keep in mind, you know, many Americans felt they go 609 00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:32,200 Speaker 8: to the polls because of pockebook issues, but they felt 610 00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:36,000 Speaker 8: inflation was too high. That you know, when they had 611 00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:38,400 Speaker 8: their bills at the end of the month, things weren't 612 00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:41,480 Speaker 8: going in their direction. It's a complicated story for Democrats 613 00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:44,400 Speaker 8: to tell to say, well, under Trump and some of 614 00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:47,960 Speaker 8: his policies, and usually in Republican policies with tax picks 615 00:34:48,080 --> 00:34:50,759 Speaker 8: to the wealthy, Democrats have to come and rebuild the 616 00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:54,120 Speaker 8: social safety net that Republicans tend to take away, and 617 00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:57,080 Speaker 8: also rebuild the economic foundation of the nation. That's a 618 00:34:57,160 --> 00:35:00,680 Speaker 8: much longer argument because voters don't really care about how 619 00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:03,400 Speaker 8: they feel in that present moment, and clearly that message 620 00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:06,600 Speaker 8: wasn't articulated to the voters the way the democratics needs 621 00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:07,400 Speaker 8: needed it to be. 622 00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:10,480 Speaker 3: To pick up the pieces and looking at the punditry 623 00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:13,680 Speaker 3: across the East Coast and the elite you're part of 624 00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:16,280 Speaker 3: the game, you know, the educated elite and all that. 625 00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:20,759 Speaker 3: As you correctly stay, they have to speak to fifty states. 626 00:35:21,600 --> 00:35:25,319 Speaker 3: Doesn't that simply mean the left has to move to 627 00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:25,880 Speaker 3: the middle. 628 00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:30,120 Speaker 8: Well, this is where it gets frustrating. I mean, in 629 00:35:30,200 --> 00:35:33,520 Speaker 8: the past, you know, Jesse Jackson is the architect of 630 00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:35,719 Speaker 8: the fifty state strategy if you remember his nineteen eighty 631 00:35:35,719 --> 00:35:39,600 Speaker 8: four but his incredibly successful nineteen eighty eight campaign. But 632 00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:42,080 Speaker 8: you know, I always show my students the distribution curve 633 00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:44,360 Speaker 8: right that hump in the middle. In the past, we 634 00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:48,239 Speaker 8: have had presidents who all clustered around the middle. We 635 00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:52,239 Speaker 8: had George H. W. Bush, we had Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Obama. 636 00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:56,000 Speaker 8: That is in our modern presidency, that's where presidents hung out. 637 00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:59,000 Speaker 8: Obama was not a radical about. 638 00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:02,359 Speaker 3: This is really important. David Brooks's let's say a couple 639 00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:04,480 Speaker 3: of weeks ago, was brilliant on this. As you are 640 00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:09,759 Speaker 3: right now, Professor, what happened? How did the Democrats decide 641 00:36:10,080 --> 00:36:14,600 Speaker 3: to polarize versus state of the middle as President Obama 642 00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:17,359 Speaker 3: and President Clinton did well. 643 00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:21,600 Speaker 8: The historical context is important because Donald Trump pulled the 644 00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:24,520 Speaker 8: party far, far, far to the right. Now we've seen 645 00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:28,279 Speaker 8: people campaign on the margins but then govern and win 646 00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:30,920 Speaker 8: a general election in the middle. He was successful by 647 00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:33,880 Speaker 8: never coming to the middle. Never he pulled his party 648 00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:36,160 Speaker 8: to the far right, because in many ways it's a 649 00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:39,560 Speaker 8: campaign of populism and the candidate himself. So Democrats tried 650 00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:41,960 Speaker 8: to chase that as they moved farther and farther to 651 00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:45,000 Speaker 8: the right and left out a core element of their 652 00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:47,960 Speaker 8: base on the left. And so as they try and 653 00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:50,919 Speaker 8: figure out what that means, some of the concern among 654 00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:53,560 Speaker 8: Democrats is, since the Democrats have moved more to the 655 00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:55,640 Speaker 8: center and more to the right, will they stay there 656 00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:58,680 Speaker 8: or will they go back to the left and really 657 00:36:58,719 --> 00:37:01,720 Speaker 8: hammer in which I think they did an excellent job, 658 00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:06,359 Speaker 8: but hammer in some key issues, union membership, making sure 659 00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:10,440 Speaker 8: public education is accessible, making sure climate change is acknowledged 660 00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:12,960 Speaker 8: so people don't have to worry about constantly moving because 661 00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:15,840 Speaker 8: of climate and becoming climate refugees. Within their own country. 662 00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:19,080 Speaker 8: There are larger, much more complicated issues that the Democrats 663 00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:21,719 Speaker 8: were trying to explain to the American public. But Donald 664 00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:26,960 Speaker 8: Trump sells something very different, and we cannot ignore the 665 00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:30,040 Speaker 8: fact that he sells a type of brand of American 666 00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:33,759 Speaker 8: whiteness that is very attractive to a large percentage of 667 00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:36,799 Speaker 8: this country and many people who aren't even white. There's 668 00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:40,000 Speaker 8: an element that James Baldwin explains so much better than 669 00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:43,160 Speaker 8: I there's an element of white supremacy in this nation 670 00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:45,560 Speaker 8: that we have to be real about the fact that 671 00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:49,160 Speaker 8: it still exists that he sells that is incredibly attractive 672 00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:51,520 Speaker 8: to voters and has been for quite some time. 673 00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:53,680 Speaker 5: And Christina, you point on one of the issues. I 674 00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:55,239 Speaker 5: thought it was really interesting as I start reading some 675 00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:58,560 Speaker 5: of the analysis of the voting that President Trump did 676 00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:02,880 Speaker 5: surprisingly well with American and Latino and particularly on the 677 00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:05,560 Speaker 5: male side. What do you make of that? 678 00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:08,840 Speaker 8: Well, I think some of it is just baked in misogyny. 679 00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:09,360 Speaker 3: Period. 680 00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:12,239 Speaker 8: There's some people men and women, who will never be 681 00:38:12,239 --> 00:38:13,560 Speaker 8: able to vote for a woman at the top of 682 00:38:13,560 --> 00:38:15,400 Speaker 8: the ticket. We're one of the few democracies of our 683 00:38:15,840 --> 00:38:18,040 Speaker 8: stature who's never had a female elected leader. And I 684 00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:21,440 Speaker 8: think that stands out on the global stage his inroads 685 00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:25,040 Speaker 8: with African American men, albeit in certain states he went 686 00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:26,719 Speaker 8: up a few percentage points. And I think that that 687 00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:29,920 Speaker 8: is a conversation in a black politics sphere because Black 688 00:38:29,960 --> 00:38:33,800 Speaker 8: people are so ideologically different, but by and large or 689 00:38:33,880 --> 00:38:38,520 Speaker 8: trapped in we call a party capture in one particular party. However, 690 00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:42,320 Speaker 8: black women and Black men are still by and large 691 00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:45,800 Speaker 8: incredibly more supportive of Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party 692 00:38:46,640 --> 00:38:50,360 Speaker 8: at large. Latino men and a growing population of Asian 693 00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:53,680 Speaker 8: American men as well are more attracted to the populism 694 00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:57,279 Speaker 8: and the economic promises of Donald Trump. Now they remain 695 00:38:57,360 --> 00:39:00,480 Speaker 8: to be seen because they were not materialized during his 696 00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:04,120 Speaker 8: first tenure, but there's a certain level of you know, 697 00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:09,439 Speaker 8: if Belle Hooks explains sort of supremacy to us of patriarchy, 698 00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:12,400 Speaker 8: that is incredibly attractive to a lot of new voters. 699 00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:16,080 Speaker 3: Chris Christina Geer. Wendy Schiller was on earlier from Brown 700 00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:20,719 Speaker 3: I think associated with a more democratic tinge of academic politics, 701 00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:24,400 Speaker 3: and she mentioned how Ducacas went down in flames, and 702 00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:27,400 Speaker 3: you turn right around and you find a central Southerner 703 00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:30,799 Speaker 3: in William Jefferson Clinton, and off you go with the 704 00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:35,640 Speaker 3: Democratic Party recovery. Do we have within a fractured Democratic 705 00:39:35,719 --> 00:39:38,920 Speaker 3: Party the ability to move to the center, whether it's 706 00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:41,920 Speaker 3: to the south or the Midwest or the blue wall 707 00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:43,440 Speaker 3: that Trump took took. 708 00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:48,279 Speaker 8: I think we're gonna have to excavate what states. You know, 709 00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:52,360 Speaker 8: Georgia is increasingly purple. But it's not just the voters, 710 00:39:52,360 --> 00:39:54,400 Speaker 8: it's the infrastructure. In many of those states, we have 711 00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:56,719 Speaker 8: you know, secretaries of state that make it harder and 712 00:39:56,760 --> 00:39:58,160 Speaker 8: harder for people to participate. 713 00:39:58,360 --> 00:39:58,759 Speaker 6: We have to. 714 00:39:58,680 --> 00:40:02,320 Speaker 8: Excavate what happened in a place North Carolina where Democrats 715 00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:06,400 Speaker 8: did incredibly well democratic you know, governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, 716 00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:11,600 Speaker 8: but somehow the presidency was lost and so and even 717 00:40:11,600 --> 00:40:14,160 Speaker 8: in Virginia being a little tighter. So it really, honestly 718 00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:16,360 Speaker 8: for me, depends on who will be in charge of 719 00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:19,680 Speaker 8: the DNC and the d tripleC to really organize some 720 00:40:19,840 --> 00:40:22,000 Speaker 8: of the data that we're seeing, and we're still seeing. 721 00:40:22,040 --> 00:40:23,840 Speaker 3: We got time. This is a really important Thank you 722 00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:26,719 Speaker 3: so much, professor for bringing this up. Who would you 723 00:40:26,920 --> 00:40:29,759 Speaker 3: like to see to take that tough job to pick 724 00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:32,160 Speaker 3: up the pieces of a shattered left? 725 00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:37,799 Speaker 8: Honestly, someone like a Pete Bodhagicge, who clearly has a 726 00:40:37,800 --> 00:40:41,680 Speaker 8: way of serving as a faithful surrogate but understanding a 727 00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:45,200 Speaker 8: zeitgeist of the American public that I didn't think I'd 728 00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:48,120 Speaker 8: ever say that, but he's quite impressive in a three 729 00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:49,240 Speaker 8: hundred and sixty view. 730 00:40:49,160 --> 00:40:51,840 Speaker 3: Professor, don't be a stranger. Thank you so much, Christina Greer, 731 00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:53,319 Speaker 3: Florida University. 732 00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:58,200 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 733 00:40:58,360 --> 00:41:01,680 Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your pie casts. Listen live 734 00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:05,560 Speaker 2: each weekday, seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, 735 00:41:05,600 --> 00:41:09,200 Speaker 2: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 736 00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:12,520 Speaker 2: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 737 00:41:12,800 --> 00:41:14,600 Speaker 2: and always on the Bloomberg terminal.