WEBVTT - US Considers Permits for Global Nvidia, AMD AI Chip Sales 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:13.319 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Bloomberg Tech is a 0:00:13.400 --> 0:00:17.160 live from Coast to coast with Carolline Hide in New 0:00:17.239 --> 0:00:19.720 York and v Lovelow in Sentrancsco. 0:00:22.960 --> 0:00:24.360 This is Bloomberg Tech coming up. 0:00:24.400 --> 0:00:29.160 Bloomberg reports the US Commerce Department has drafted regulations restricting 0:00:29.320 --> 0:00:33.040 AI chip shipments anywhere in the world without American approval. 0:00:33.240 --> 0:00:36.280 Plus Oracle plans to cut thousands of jobs as it 0:00:36.320 --> 0:00:39.160 handles a cash crunch from a massive AI data center 0:00:39.200 --> 0:00:40.040 expansion effort. 0:00:40.640 --> 0:00:43.879 And the Pentagon has officially notified lawmakers that it has 0:00:44.000 --> 0:00:47.559 determined Anthropic and its products pose a risk to the 0:00:47.640 --> 0:00:48.480 US supply chain. 0:00:49.040 --> 0:00:51.760 Some extraordinary news on the private sector and indeed on 0:00:51.800 --> 0:00:53.920 the public markets right now. And we're seeing ourselves, what 0:00:53.960 --> 0:00:56.040 by about three quarters percent on the NASAK one hundred, 0:00:56.160 --> 0:00:57.080 coming off of our lows. 0:00:57.080 --> 0:00:58.360 But we're down on the week, the S and P 0:00:58.400 --> 0:00:59.240 five hundred having. 0:00:59.120 --> 0:01:02.320 Its worst week. It's October of last year, and in March. 0:01:02.400 --> 0:01:04.520 Part it's because there was lots happening to oil prices, 0:01:04.680 --> 0:01:06.760 and we're in a sixth day of conflict with the 0:01:06.760 --> 0:01:09.000 Middle East with Iran, and we're seeing ail up six 0:01:09.000 --> 0:01:11.640 percent at one point. We're now, of course, eclipsing ninety 0:01:11.680 --> 0:01:14.880 one dollars on the BNT on the global contract. All 0:01:14.880 --> 0:01:17.360 of this adding to inflation pressure when we're seeing weakness 0:01:17.360 --> 0:01:20.039 in the labor market, non farm payrolls are surprise loss 0:01:20.040 --> 0:01:23.280 in jobs, no additions. We're also seeing, therefore, money coming 0:01:23.280 --> 0:01:26.240 out of some of those risk assets. Bitcoin off by 0:01:26.240 --> 0:01:28.119 three point six percent today, ED, what are. 0:01:28.080 --> 0:01:28.920 You looking at? 0:01:29.040 --> 0:01:30.559 Yeah, chip stocks are under pressure. 0:01:30.560 --> 0:01:34.039 The Philadelphia Semiconductor indexes down in this session, down on 0:01:34.080 --> 0:01:36.319 the week, and headed to two straight weeks of declines 0:01:36.600 --> 0:01:39.840 for the first time since November. Bloomberg News is reporting 0:01:40.200 --> 0:01:43.360 that the Commerce Department has drafted new rules that would 0:01:43.400 --> 0:01:47.960 restrict US shipments of AI chips worldwide, giving Washington broad 0:01:48.000 --> 0:01:52.120 authority over whether other countries can build facilities to train 0:01:52.200 --> 0:01:53.760 and run our official intelligence models. 0:01:53.840 --> 0:01:55.680 That's all according to sources. 0:01:55.680 --> 0:01:59.040 Bloomberg Tech and Industrial Policy Report of Maggie Eastland joins 0:01:59.120 --> 0:02:02.840 us with the let's get into the content of those 0:02:02.920 --> 0:02:04.720 draft rules and what Bloomberg's reported. 0:02:04.760 --> 0:02:05.400 What do we need to know? 0:02:07.320 --> 0:02:10.560 Of course, so as we've reported, there is a license 0:02:10.639 --> 0:02:15.160 requirement for AI chips sent almost anywhere in the world. Now, 0:02:15.160 --> 0:02:18.120 whether or not these licenses will be handed out. Depends 0:02:18.120 --> 0:02:21.960 a lot on how many chips, as compared to a 0:02:22.120 --> 0:02:24.800 Blackwell and video black Well, how many of those chips 0:02:25.560 --> 0:02:28.839 each does each end user want to purchase, And now 0:02:28.880 --> 0:02:31.320 on the higher end, for end users wanting to purchase 0:02:31.400 --> 0:02:34.160 up to two hundred thousand, that may actually require and 0:02:34.200 --> 0:02:37.840 the US may ask nations to invest in AI within 0:02:38.080 --> 0:02:41.679 US borders. So this opens up an opportunity for chip 0:02:41.800 --> 0:02:45.960 licenses to become a factor in global trade talks. 0:02:46.080 --> 0:02:48.880 Something that I'm sure many a country of Bristol at, Maggie. 0:02:48.880 --> 0:02:52.960 What's interesting is that the Commas Department has responded and 0:02:53.000 --> 0:02:55.560 they say the draft rule isn't meant to function as 0:02:55.600 --> 0:02:58.000 an Nvidia export band. Can you just give us the 0:02:58.120 --> 0:02:59.959 nuance of how the government has responded. 0:03:00.160 --> 0:03:03.480 You're reporting right. 0:03:03.600 --> 0:03:07.400 So this response shows and tries to emphasize that this 0:03:07.520 --> 0:03:10.840 is not the same as the Biden administration and. 0:03:10.840 --> 0:03:12.000 Their diffusion rule. 0:03:12.320 --> 0:03:15.160 It's one thing is it is not based on countries. However, 0:03:15.560 --> 0:03:18.160 there is a big role here that the government is 0:03:18.200 --> 0:03:21.240 playing as a gatekeeper, and whether or not this is 0:03:21.320 --> 0:03:24.800 more restrictive is ultimately going to depend on how the 0:03:24.919 --> 0:03:28.200 US decides to dole out these licenses, and it does 0:03:28.240 --> 0:03:30.280 have the leeway to be more or less. 0:03:30.160 --> 0:03:30.960 Strict with that. 0:03:32.320 --> 0:03:32.720 Maggie. 0:03:32.880 --> 0:03:36.880 An important point here is it doesn't necessarily change US 0:03:37.000 --> 0:03:39.880 policy with regards to China right now. You outline that, 0:03:40.280 --> 0:03:43.200 But there seems to be like this tiered response if 0:03:43.240 --> 0:03:45.440 it's a small batch of chips for a small data 0:03:45.480 --> 0:03:48.760 center project lighter review. But at the other end of 0:03:48.800 --> 0:03:52.160 the extreme in our reporting, it seems to indicate that 0:03:52.200 --> 0:03:57.040 you have a nation state country to country negotiation. If 0:03:57.040 --> 0:04:00.800 the US is going to allow the export of cutting 0:04:00.920 --> 0:04:03.240 edge AI accelerators. 0:04:04.600 --> 0:04:08.000 Exactly as you say, for any shipments over two hundred 0:04:08.120 --> 0:04:11.760 thousand Blackwell equivalents, there will have to be a nation 0:04:11.880 --> 0:04:15.320 to nation negotiation, and it is sort of a tiered response. 0:04:15.880 --> 0:04:18.400 If it's under a thousand chips, that's going to be 0:04:18.440 --> 0:04:20.760 a lot easier to get approval. But again, as you 0:04:20.839 --> 0:04:22.799 work up the chain and want more and more ships, 0:04:22.880 --> 0:04:25.320 the US is going to be asking for more in return. 0:04:26.200 --> 0:04:30.000 Maggie Eastlan on what the US we understand is currently considering. 0:04:30.520 --> 0:04:33.839 We so appreciate it. Now, let's stick with Global Tech News. 0:04:33.960 --> 0:04:36.680 Ted Mordenson is with US. He's bed managing director. He 0:04:36.800 --> 0:04:40.240 oversees technology research. Boy, is there are a lot to 0:04:40.279 --> 0:04:44.080 be trying to digest as someone who analyzes tech. Right now, 0:04:44.120 --> 0:04:46.520 just focus in on what potentially the US could be 0:04:46.560 --> 0:04:49.799 thinking about here and overseeing of basically how in video 0:04:49.800 --> 0:04:51.960 and AMD export to the rest of the world. 0:04:52.200 --> 0:04:56.680 Your reaction, I think it's a broader focus. It also, 0:04:57.080 --> 0:04:58.360 let's face facts. 0:04:58.560 --> 0:05:02.560 I mean, the Trump administration is providing a broad blanket 0:05:02.680 --> 0:05:05.839 not only on energy policy, Look what we've done in Venezuela, 0:05:05.880 --> 0:05:07.520 look what we're doing in our own right. 0:05:07.400 --> 0:05:09.640 Now, but also on rare earth. 0:05:09.760 --> 0:05:14.320 This all feeds together in one big ecosystem, and I 0:05:14.360 --> 0:05:17.400 think they just want control of what's happening on our 0:05:17.440 --> 0:05:22.520 next generation silicon at that three and two nanimeter node. 0:05:23.360 --> 0:05:25.920 This is one of the reasons why we've built eight 0:05:26.000 --> 0:05:31.000 fabs at TSM and Arizona. We have to control that technology, 0:05:31.080 --> 0:05:34.280 specifically at that two nanimeter node, because that's where all 0:05:34.279 --> 0:05:38.200 the AI chip development is going. So I think they're 0:05:38.240 --> 0:05:40.680 just trying to get their arms around the whole situation 0:05:41.440 --> 0:05:45.719 that the US is in more of a power solution 0:05:46.080 --> 0:05:49.480 verse being ripped off globally a. 0:05:49.320 --> 0:05:50.440 Power solution first. 0:05:50.480 --> 0:05:53.680 I mean, at the moment, we're seeing a negative reaction 0:05:53.760 --> 0:05:56.279 to the stocks in the back of that story. In fact, 0:05:56.440 --> 0:05:58.920 very few stocks are in the green today and maybe 0:05:58.920 --> 0:06:02.599 Marvel and broad Com out perform because of numbers we 0:06:02.680 --> 0:06:04.320 see defense tech outperformed. 0:06:04.360 --> 0:06:04.520 TED. 0:06:04.600 --> 0:06:08.040 What do you do in this current geopolitical moment of tension? 0:06:09.320 --> 0:06:14.160 So I'm on with some very big clients, you know, constantly, 0:06:14.240 --> 0:06:17.039 whether it be during the day or even at night 0:06:17.400 --> 0:06:20.520 lately during earnings, and I think what people are doing 0:06:20.600 --> 0:06:24.599 is we're kind of post last Saturday, and there's not 0:06:24.680 --> 0:06:26.960 a lot of cycle experience. I mean, I'm old, so 0:06:27.040 --> 0:06:29.719 I've seen pretty much all this. It doesn't really surprise 0:06:29.800 --> 0:06:32.760 me that much. But we're now in this I would 0:06:32.760 --> 0:06:37.120 call it a capital preservation phase, where when you don't 0:06:37.240 --> 0:06:42.400 have a you know, a clear picture of what could happen, 0:06:42.440 --> 0:06:45.440 whether it be on the commodity side the raid environment, 0:06:46.160 --> 0:06:49.120 you tend to go to a capital preservation mode. And 0:06:49.160 --> 0:06:52.520 what I mean by that is there's a lot of 0:06:52.640 --> 0:06:56.279 d risking going on in tech portfolios, and there's been 0:06:56.320 --> 0:07:02.280 some very violent moves between software and also semiconductors, and 0:07:02.320 --> 0:07:05.919 I think there's also some pms that are quite frankly 0:07:05.960 --> 0:07:09.040 just moving to other sectors that are a little bit 0:07:09.080 --> 0:07:09.800 more defensive. 0:07:10.880 --> 0:07:13.680 So you know, Caroline outlined right at the top of 0:07:13.720 --> 0:07:15.920 the show, the sort of the trajectory of the Nasdaq 0:07:15.920 --> 0:07:18.160 one hundred, right, I think, on track for its worst 0:07:18.200 --> 0:07:21.480 week since October. Then I said, chips are following a 0:07:21.520 --> 0:07:25.559 similar pattern, back to back weekly declines for the first 0:07:25.560 --> 0:07:29.280 time since November. It seems a strange question, But what 0:07:29.400 --> 0:07:31.640 is the main catalyst in this market right now? What 0:07:31.800 --> 0:07:34.440 is it that your clients are saying is driving their 0:07:34.440 --> 0:07:36.120 psychology when you're on the phone with them. 0:07:37.000 --> 0:07:40.440 They need clarity. You know, everybody's looking at the tenure. 0:07:40.520 --> 0:07:42.680 I mean it revers down to the four to twelve 0:07:42.760 --> 0:07:45.000 range earlier in the day, now it's back last time 0:07:45.040 --> 0:07:48.800 I checked out of the four seventeen range. They're worried 0:07:48.840 --> 0:07:53.320 about a potential spike in rakes. There's inflation everywhere in tech. 0:07:53.400 --> 0:07:56.120 Every single conference call I'm on and I listened to 0:07:56.200 --> 0:08:00.480 over seventy during earning season, everybody is passing on price. 0:08:01.280 --> 0:08:05.920 So I think the institutional investor is looking at locking 0:08:05.960 --> 0:08:11.920 in gains on some really leadership stocks, building some more 0:08:12.040 --> 0:08:15.240 cash levels just to be more nimble. Buying from the 0:08:15.280 --> 0:08:19.160 fearful selling to the needy is a discussion I have 0:08:19.360 --> 0:08:22.760 almost every single conversation. And then the other things that 0:08:22.960 --> 0:08:26.920 portfolio managers are doing is they're upgrading their portfolio. And 0:08:27.000 --> 0:08:29.760 this is a great opportunity when the markets are down 0:08:30.440 --> 0:08:34.680 to really look at these A companies with unbelievable management teams, 0:08:35.160 --> 0:08:40.000 product cycles that move into AGENTIIC and free cash LOWI 0:08:40.000 --> 0:08:43.000 is king and if you do a screen on those names, 0:08:43.040 --> 0:08:46.160 there's a bunch of tech companies that are way off 0:08:46.240 --> 0:08:49.000 their highs and that's where that's where we're doing most 0:08:49.040 --> 0:08:49.480 of the work. 0:08:50.440 --> 0:08:52.160 It's actually the S and P five hundred I think 0:08:52.200 --> 0:08:54.720 that's having the rough week relatives in AWE. That one 0:08:54.800 --> 0:08:58.080 hundred one name that is having a very good week 0:08:58.360 --> 0:08:59.120 is Palenteer. 0:08:59.720 --> 0:09:01.680 You up almost thirteen. 0:09:01.240 --> 0:09:04.720 Percent, and that's like logical, right, Like Caroline was making 0:09:04.720 --> 0:09:07.880 the point, I think it was Monday, maybe Tuesday that 0:09:08.080 --> 0:09:10.839 with everything that's happening with the war in Iran and 0:09:10.920 --> 0:09:15.319 indeed the back and forth between the Department of Defense, 0:09:15.360 --> 0:09:19.520 the Pentagon and AI Providers, that you'd expect that name 0:09:19.559 --> 0:09:21.720 to be higher, you know, you'd expect it to be 0:09:21.760 --> 0:09:22.920 in the spotlight right now. 0:09:24.559 --> 0:09:27.400 It truly is one of these next generation companies that 0:09:27.440 --> 0:09:30.920 has been put in pretty much every single agency. They 0:09:30.960 --> 0:09:34.120 started with the army, but they've gone to the Space Force, 0:09:35.000 --> 0:09:37.959 the Navy, pretty much every single industry. And if you 0:09:38.440 --> 0:09:43.720 just connect the dots on our success in Iran is 0:09:43.800 --> 0:09:48.880 based upon Pallanteer being embedded in the IDEF, the Israeli 0:09:48.960 --> 0:09:51.600 Defense Force as well as. 0:09:53.400 --> 0:09:54.240 Pretty much I. 0:09:54.240 --> 0:09:57.360 Would assume all of our agencies in relationship to our 0:09:58.160 --> 0:09:59.040 Department of War. 0:09:59.760 --> 0:10:01.479 This gives the warfighter. 0:10:01.559 --> 0:10:03.880 And you know, I flew for you know a lot 0:10:03.920 --> 0:10:08.040 of years and I feel so antiquated on what my 0:10:08.240 --> 0:10:11.920 new naval aviators have at their disposal. They can see 0:10:11.960 --> 0:10:17.240 around corners, they can see the battlefield in real time, 0:10:17.520 --> 0:10:20.440 and that's that's really because of a lot of the 0:10:20.480 --> 0:10:25.160 Paneteer software and their ability to really take on an 0:10:25.160 --> 0:10:27.440 immense amount of data and make sense of it. 0:10:28.679 --> 0:10:31.480 I love hearing about that history and that understanding you 0:10:31.520 --> 0:10:34.480 have ted. Can you therefore opine a little bit on 0:10:34.679 --> 0:10:38.000 how difficult it might be for them to unentwine themselves. 0:10:38.320 --> 0:10:42.800 That's even a word with anthropic, because Panta has had 0:10:42.800 --> 0:10:45.640 a partnership with them. If we are seeing them forced out, 0:10:46.040 --> 0:10:47.400 is that going to be an issue for the business. 0:10:48.040 --> 0:10:50.360 I think it's I think it's a really political I 0:10:50.400 --> 0:10:54.720 think at some point of the Defense Department, and you know, 0:10:54.760 --> 0:10:58.480 the government will need and tropic and they'll still find 0:10:58.520 --> 0:11:01.080 a way of somewhere in the middle. Same thing with 0:11:01.160 --> 0:11:04.280 open eye, open AI. If you go back in the 0:11:04.320 --> 0:11:08.199 way back machine. I mean, this has happened at Amazon, 0:11:08.280 --> 0:11:10.880 it's happened at Google, it's happened at Microsoft. 0:11:11.360 --> 0:11:12.600 We'll get there somehow. 0:11:13.160 --> 0:11:17.400 What I think your viewers need to understand is the 0:11:17.520 --> 0:11:22.520 US government, specifically the Defense Department, needs the best technology, 0:11:23.040 --> 0:11:25.000 and I think what we're using is kind of a 0:11:25.040 --> 0:11:27.720 strong arm tactic to get them back at the table 0:11:28.160 --> 0:11:30.040 and to get to some middle. 0:11:29.800 --> 0:11:36.560 Grown Ted Wordenson of Bed with a very close view 0:11:36.600 --> 0:11:40.960 of what's happening between technology and the world, the state 0:11:40.960 --> 0:11:41.520 of the world. 0:11:41.400 --> 0:11:42.480 Right now, I really appreciate it. 0:11:42.640 --> 0:11:45.800 Now coming up in the program, Oracle plans to act 0:11:45.960 --> 0:11:48.320 thousands of roles as soon as this month. We're going 0:11:48.360 --> 0:11:51.160 to discuss what is behind that move and the Bloomberg reporting. 0:11:51.520 --> 0:11:52.640 This is Bloomberg Tech. 0:12:02.440 --> 0:12:05.200 Oracle is planning to cut thousands of jobs as it 0:12:05.200 --> 0:12:07.920 looks to manage a cash crunch driven by AI spending. 0:12:08.000 --> 0:12:10.959 According to sources, Let's get the details of Bloomberg's Brady Ford, 0:12:11.160 --> 0:12:14.360 who broke the story. Lots of detail in the report, 0:12:15.160 --> 0:12:17.480 the size, the scope, the when, what do we need 0:12:17.480 --> 0:12:17.720 to know? 0:12:19.200 --> 0:12:21.360 It costs a lot of money to build data centers. 0:12:21.600 --> 0:12:24.640 Right, Oracle is betting its company on the fact that 0:12:24.720 --> 0:12:28.480 it will be an AI infrastructure provider, and over the 0:12:28.520 --> 0:12:32.040 next couple of years that means negative cash flow. It's 0:12:32.040 --> 0:12:35.360 feeling a crunch, and so it's responding, right, it's planning 0:12:35.400 --> 0:12:38.520 what appears to be one of the largest layoffs on 0:12:38.640 --> 0:12:41.920 record for the company. Thousands of workers impacted as soon 0:12:41.960 --> 0:12:45.800 as this month. And yeah, I mean it is certainly 0:12:45.840 --> 0:12:49.040 a rough market out there for jobs in the tech industry, 0:12:49.080 --> 0:12:51.160 and this is just one more data point. 0:12:50.960 --> 0:12:52.440 For that, Brady. 0:12:53.280 --> 0:12:56.000 It needs money for AI and the infrastructure of it. 0:12:55.880 --> 0:12:58.960 It needs less people because of AI. And you say 0:12:58.960 --> 0:13:00.480 that the job cuts are going to be coming to 0:13:00.520 --> 0:13:04.440 those where I assume the latest greatest AI agent is 0:13:04.440 --> 0:13:06.320 going to be able to perform for them. 0:13:07.320 --> 0:13:07.800 Exactly. 0:13:07.840 --> 0:13:08.040 Yeah. 0:13:08.040 --> 0:13:10.760 I think every management team right now, everybody who has. 0:13:10.640 --> 0:13:13.720 A P and L is being asked, Hey, when you're 0:13:13.720 --> 0:13:16.880 doing your headcom planning, let's think about what roles we 0:13:17.000 --> 0:13:20.240 need less of. We all know these AI and tools 0:13:20.280 --> 0:13:23.440 aren't quite there in terms of replacing people, but in 0:13:23.520 --> 0:13:27.240 terms of time saving, in terms of hey, maybe if 0:13:27.240 --> 0:13:29.240 you had a team of ten people, can we do 0:13:29.280 --> 0:13:30.319 it with eight people. 0:13:30.920 --> 0:13:32.559 From what we are hearing. 0:13:32.280 --> 0:13:35.520 From sources, that is certainly a factor in this layoff. 0:13:35.640 --> 0:13:38.400 Though at the end of the day, it's cost cutting. 0:13:38.880 --> 0:13:41.079 I think that's the big story rather than it. 0:13:41.080 --> 0:13:43.480 Being a you know, AI is so amazing that we 0:13:43.520 --> 0:13:44.400 can replace people. 0:13:44.920 --> 0:13:47.800 Yeah, then you want some whether it's AI washing or not, continues. 0:13:48.400 --> 0:13:50.840 It's proty forward. Thank you so much for joining us 0:13:50.840 --> 0:13:53.800 on that story. Look, another tech leader has been acknowledging 0:13:53.800 --> 0:13:56.680 the impact of AI on jobs Page a Duty CEO 0:13:56.760 --> 0:13:59.960 Jennifer tahadah I spoke with her at Bloomberg's New Voices 0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:02.679 event earlier this week, where she said AI's impact from 0:14:02.720 --> 0:14:06.640 productivity is changing the way her company fills vacant positions. 0:14:07.600 --> 0:14:08.280 Yeah, we've tried. 0:14:08.280 --> 0:14:11.520 I moved the word backfill from our vocabulary because that 0:14:12.360 --> 0:14:15.880 sort of infers that you need something exactly like what 0:14:15.920 --> 0:14:18.320 you have before, and the market is moving so fast 0:14:18.400 --> 0:14:20.840 that by the time one person exit the role, you 0:14:20.840 --> 0:14:23.680 actually need to think completely differently about what the opportunity 0:14:23.760 --> 0:14:26.320 is to add capacity to your team in a new way. 0:14:26.960 --> 0:14:30.000 So are you seeing few of people working at Patrigg 0:14:30.120 --> 0:14:32.960 and how does that perhaps. 0:14:32.920 --> 0:14:34.960 Change the conversation you're having with employees. 0:14:35.520 --> 0:14:38.960 Well, I think employees understand that we're looking for each 0:14:39.040 --> 0:14:44.600 of them to demonstrate not only productivity and efficiency, but 0:14:45.560 --> 0:14:48.520 higher velocity in the innovation. And I stand up at 0:14:48.520 --> 0:14:51.120 town hall almost every month and say, I'm not asking 0:14:51.160 --> 0:14:53.440 you to work more, I'm not asking you to work harder. 0:14:53.440 --> 0:14:57.360 I'm asking to work differently. I'm asking you to embrace 0:14:57.400 --> 0:15:00.680 and leverage AI and service of competitive advantage, but mostly 0:15:00.720 --> 0:15:04.240 in service of our customers. Right, And I think that's 0:15:04.280 --> 0:15:06.280 exciting for most employees. 0:15:07.560 --> 0:15:11.360 That was page Judy CEO Jennifer Tahada. Now, US employers 0:15:11.440 --> 0:15:15.480 did unexpectedly slash ninety two thousand jobs last month, raising 0:15:15.480 --> 0:15:19.120 the unemployment rate to four point four percent. Those cuts 0:15:19.120 --> 0:15:23.280 are being blamed on strikes at major healthcare providers and servers. 0:15:23.520 --> 0:15:25.240 Whether not AI. 0:15:25.600 --> 0:15:29.640 How much longer could it be until AI does impact 0:15:29.720 --> 0:15:32.600 to the labor market market? Gimball, executive director of the 0:15:32.640 --> 0:15:35.920 Yale Budget Lab, has been doing research on AI labor 0:15:35.960 --> 0:15:40.640 market impact and joins us WE every week month and 0:15:40.720 --> 0:15:45.640 quarter wait for the definitive data set that says AI 0:15:45.800 --> 0:15:46.880 is doing something here. 0:15:48.240 --> 0:15:50.960 Have you seen it yet? Will we see it soon? 0:15:52.520 --> 0:15:55.200 I really haven't seen it yet. I think everyone is 0:15:55.320 --> 0:15:58.120 so focused on what the technology can do, because the 0:15:58.160 --> 0:16:03.520 technology is so amazing that they're jumping straight to and 0:16:03.560 --> 0:16:08.000 therefore we're going to really quickly see these labor market impacts. 0:16:08.920 --> 0:16:10.840 I think it's really important to keep in mind there 0:16:10.840 --> 0:16:14.200 are a lot of things that affect deployment of technology. 0:16:14.560 --> 0:16:22.320 It policies, economic pressures, demographic changes, liability concerns, and so 0:16:22.640 --> 0:16:26.560 the question isn't just what can the technology do, but 0:16:26.800 --> 0:16:30.400 how quickly is society going to and companies going to 0:16:30.440 --> 0:16:31.880 rearrange itself around it. 0:16:32.880 --> 0:16:36.560 The news is that, you know, the unexpected cut to 0:16:36.640 --> 0:16:39.840 jobs in February. That's the news. That's what's driving markets today. 0:16:40.160 --> 0:16:43.160 Within the data set, did you see anything? Did you 0:16:43.240 --> 0:16:46.520 go deep and say, Okay, what can I put from 0:16:46.560 --> 0:16:47.920 this into my own model? 0:16:49.120 --> 0:16:49.280 Yeah? 0:16:49.320 --> 0:16:51.680 And when you look at this data, I mean, strikes 0:16:51.680 --> 0:16:53.400 did play a role, so we should see those jobs 0:16:53.440 --> 0:16:54.000 coming back. 0:16:54.640 --> 0:16:55.320 But even if you. 0:16:55.320 --> 0:16:58.080 Take the strikes out, about fifty percent of the job 0:16:58.120 --> 0:17:01.640 loss was in goods producing sectors approached to private service 0:17:01.720 --> 0:17:06.760 providing sectors. So things like manufacturing, manufacturing, construction, mining, and logging, 0:17:08.119 --> 0:17:10.600 those are not sectors that we expect to be affected 0:17:10.600 --> 0:17:12.960 by AI in the same way. And for context, right, 0:17:13.000 --> 0:17:15.400 they were about fifty percent of the cuts, but they're 0:17:15.440 --> 0:17:19.400 only sixteen percent of employment, and so that doesn't suggest 0:17:19.520 --> 0:17:22.080 that this is AI. It suggests that, you know, you 0:17:22.119 --> 0:17:26.280 maybe have impacts of tariffs plus just some general cyclical weakening. 0:17:27.040 --> 0:17:30.880 Martha, Yeah, we saw in information about eleven thousand jobs gone. 0:17:30.880 --> 0:17:32.800 Out of those ninety two thousand. 0:17:33.160 --> 0:17:35.360 Can you tell us what data points we should look 0:17:35.400 --> 0:17:38.600 at then, if it is going to be about productivity gains, 0:17:38.760 --> 0:17:41.760 if it is going to be more about different areas 0:17:41.760 --> 0:17:44.600 that is starting to see the impact of an AI 0:17:44.680 --> 0:17:45.680 agent for example. 0:17:47.040 --> 0:17:48.800 Yeah, one of the things that I've been looking at 0:17:48.920 --> 0:17:52.000 is how quickly the just composition of jobs in our 0:17:52.080 --> 0:17:55.200 economy is changing. Because we gain and lose jobs all 0:17:55.240 --> 0:17:58.920 the time, that's a pretty standard part of an economy. 0:17:58.960 --> 0:18:01.560 And so just because we lose jobs in one month 0:18:02.440 --> 0:18:04.480 doesn't mean that we should immediately assume that it's AI 0:18:04.520 --> 0:18:08.479 related job loss. But if we're losing jobs predominantly in 0:18:08.520 --> 0:18:11.439 one sector or a couple of sectors that are unusual 0:18:11.520 --> 0:18:15.439 that look like AI. That's a signal that maybe this 0:18:15.480 --> 0:18:17.320 is starting to happen. And that's why you know, at 0:18:17.320 --> 0:18:21.360 Budget Lab we've been tracking this measure of occupational distribution 0:18:21.440 --> 0:18:26.280 every month and it still isn't really flashing anything. I 0:18:26.280 --> 0:18:29.199 think it's really important to separate out the vibes on 0:18:29.280 --> 0:18:32.040 AI in the labor market from what's happening in the data. 0:18:32.119 --> 0:18:34.480 And you know, I think you're just seeing broad agreement 0:18:35.200 --> 0:18:36.920 that it's not in the data yet. You just saw 0:18:36.920 --> 0:18:40.520 a report from Anthropic come out yesterday saying, yeah, we're 0:18:40.560 --> 0:18:42.680 really not seeing macroeconomic impacts here yet. 0:18:43.400 --> 0:18:46.359 Vibe is one thing, but Jack Dawcy saying he's cutting 0:18:46.359 --> 0:18:50.160 half of his staff is a data point. And yes, 0:18:50.280 --> 0:18:52.640 we can say whether there's some AI washing within it, 0:18:52.680 --> 0:18:56.600 but still there are executives saying we are not backfilling, 0:18:56.760 --> 0:18:57.680 we are using AI. 0:18:58.119 --> 0:18:59.560 We are cutting half of our. 0:18:59.480 --> 0:19:01.720 Staff because we think AI is at a cusp where 0:19:01.720 --> 0:19:02.639 we can do more with it. 0:19:02.760 --> 0:19:04.919 Martha, when does that start to leach in? 0:19:06.640 --> 0:19:09.960 Do you think tracking CEO statements is not the ideal 0:19:10.040 --> 0:19:12.440 way to look at this for a couple of reasons. 0:19:13.040 --> 0:19:13.280 Right. 0:19:13.400 --> 0:19:16.080 One is there's huge selection and who even makes a 0:19:16.119 --> 0:19:19.600 statement about layoffs. Your hardware store down the street is 0:19:19.640 --> 0:19:21.920 not issuing a statement every time they lay someone off. 0:19:22.760 --> 0:19:26.199 There's selection effects in whose statements get covered, right. The 0:19:26.400 --> 0:19:29.040 statement from Jack Dorsey was you know, very eye catching, 0:19:29.080 --> 0:19:32.399 and so I got picked up. And also, frankly, you know, 0:19:32.480 --> 0:19:36.360 CEOs have incentives to talk about things in a certain way. 0:19:36.480 --> 0:19:39.960 Shareholders want to hear that they're making AI investments and 0:19:40.040 --> 0:19:43.640 driving productivity, and they may not even have a perfect 0:19:43.680 --> 0:19:46.680 sense of what hiring would look like in the absence 0:19:46.720 --> 0:19:49.120 of AI. And so I do think it's a moment 0:19:49.160 --> 0:19:51.160 where you know, yes, we should listen to people about 0:19:51.160 --> 0:19:54.040 what's going on. We should listen to CEOs. But it's 0:19:54.080 --> 0:19:56.040 really important to go back to the data and make 0:19:56.080 --> 0:19:58.800 sure we're taking a really data driven approach here rather 0:19:58.880 --> 0:20:02.240 than you know, following the latest. 0:20:03.359 --> 0:20:04.240 Company announcement. 0:20:04.440 --> 0:20:06.760 And that is why your data approach is so important. 0:20:06.840 --> 0:20:08.680 Some of the research you do is just great, go 0:20:08.720 --> 0:20:10.800 and read it. Labor market a exposure, what do we know? 0:20:10.880 --> 0:20:13.919 For example, Martha Gimmell, executive director and co founder at 0:20:13.960 --> 0:20:16.480 the Yale Budget Lab, we appreciate you now coming up 0:20:16.920 --> 0:20:20.640 soft Bank in search of forty million dollars to fuel. 0:20:20.359 --> 0:20:23.520 Its AI ambitions. More on that next, this is bloombag Tech. 0:20:33.080 --> 0:20:34.840 It's time now for talking tech and first up. 0:20:34.920 --> 0:20:37.480 Robin Hood raised six hundred and fifty eight million dollars for 0:20:37.520 --> 0:20:40.960 its closed end fund designed to give US retail investors 0:20:40.960 --> 0:20:42.280 access to private companies. 0:20:42.520 --> 0:20:45.399 Robinhood, CEO of Latana, joined Open Interest. Just take a listen. 0:20:46.359 --> 0:20:48.800 Robin Adventure is a closed end fund listed on the 0:20:48.880 --> 0:20:54.399 Nicey that invests in private companies. The idea is we 0:20:54.480 --> 0:20:58.840 raise the capital in an IPO and then we invest 0:20:58.840 --> 0:21:03.240 that capital in private companies. And so far we've got 0:21:03.240 --> 0:21:08.320 a portfolio frontier names in their industries. You mentioned Data 0:21:08.359 --> 0:21:12.879 Bricks or a Mercore, Revolute Ramp. Those are just some 0:21:13.000 --> 0:21:15.760 of the companies that are are part of this portfolio. 0:21:16.880 --> 0:21:20.240