1 00:00:04,920 --> 00:00:07,640 Speaker 1: In this episode of News World. With no relief from 2 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:11,200 Speaker 1: high home prices and rents, more and more state legislators 3 00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 1: are interested in pursuing housing reform. As a result, state 4 00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:17,520 Speaker 1: legislatures set new records for the number and strength of 5 00:00:17,600 --> 00:00:22,040 Speaker 1: new olls intended to unlock home building. In his new 6 00:00:22,160 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 1: policy brief for the Mercadas Center, Framing Futures, pro housing 7 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:32,160 Speaker 1: legislation goes vertical in twenty twenty five, Salim Firth describes 8 00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:36,480 Speaker 1: how states past record breaking housing reforms in twenty twenty five, 9 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:41,599 Speaker 1: easing parking rules and zoning across the United States. I'm 10 00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:44,879 Speaker 1: really pleased to welcome my guest, Celine Firth. He is 11 00:00:44,920 --> 00:00:48,879 Speaker 1: a senior Research Fellow and director of the Urbanity Project 12 00:00:49,159 --> 00:00:53,400 Speaker 1: at the Mercadas Center at George Mason University. His research 13 00:00:53,440 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 1: focuses on housing production and land use regulation. He frequently 14 00:00:57,760 --> 00:01:02,720 Speaker 1: advises local governments and tests of before state and federal legislatures. 15 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:19,520 Speaker 1: He earned his PhD in economics from the University of Rochester, Silliam. 16 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 1: Welcome and thank you for joining me on News World. 17 00:01:22,760 --> 00:01:24,200 Speaker 2: Thank you so much, Speaker Kings. 18 00:01:24,640 --> 00:01:27,720 Speaker 1: Can you describe briefly what is the Urbanity Project? 19 00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:32,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, we are a small group of researchers within this 20 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:36,360 Speaker 2: research center at George Mason University. He's a public university 21 00:01:36,360 --> 00:01:39,880 Speaker 2: in Virginia, but we are kind of independently funded. Where 22 00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:44,240 Speaker 2: we are liberty minded oriented towards markets. Somebody once described 23 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:46,240 Speaker 2: us as where the people in Washington who say that 24 00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 2: markets are the problem and markets are the solution. Another 25 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:52,160 Speaker 2: way we describe ourselves is bridging the gap between academic 26 00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:53,840 Speaker 2: ideas and real world problems. 27 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 1: A New Wall Street Journal Paul found that only twenty 28 00:01:57,600 --> 00:02:00,520 Speaker 1: five percent of Americans believe they have a good chance 29 00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:03,720 Speaker 1: of improving their standard of living. That's a record low 30 00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:07,160 Speaker 1: since that survey began in nineteen eighty seven. What do 31 00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:10,080 Speaker 1: you think is behind this sharp decline in optimism? 32 00:02:10,720 --> 00:02:14,440 Speaker 2: That's amazing, that's really sad. Home prices are just the 33 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:18,160 Speaker 2: biggest thing in almost anyone's budget, and especially young people. 34 00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:20,840 Speaker 2: When I talk to folks younger than me, like my 35 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:24,679 Speaker 2: little brother's age, they hardly believe that they are ever 36 00:02:24,760 --> 00:02:27,320 Speaker 2: going to be able to buy a home in the 37 00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:29,200 Speaker 2: areas where they grew up or in the areas where 38 00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:31,920 Speaker 2: they work now. I was watching a panel with a 39 00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 2: young legislator in New Hampshire, Joe Alexander, and he said 40 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 2: that his cohort, he's about thirty now, and his college friends, 41 00:02:39,760 --> 00:02:42,480 Speaker 2: he is still the only one who owns a home. 42 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:44,919 Speaker 2: And these are, you know, smart young people. They went 43 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 2: to college, They did things the right way, right the 44 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 2: way that society told them. If you stay in school, 45 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:54,480 Speaker 2: get a degree, work hard, you're going to get the 46 00:02:54,520 --> 00:02:57,040 Speaker 2: American dream. And most of them are renting. 47 00:02:57,600 --> 00:03:00,800 Speaker 1: One of the surveys indicates that nearly seventy percent of 48 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:04,160 Speaker 1: Americans now say the American dream that if you work hard, 49 00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:07,320 Speaker 1: you'll get ahead no longer holds true, or maybe never did. 50 00:03:07,960 --> 00:03:11,360 Speaker 1: What does this say about the current economic situation and 51 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:13,360 Speaker 1: the kind of experiences they're having in life. 52 00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:16,639 Speaker 2: I do think it used to. I mean when I 53 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:21,800 Speaker 2: read older books or policy papers written by generations before me, 54 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:26,680 Speaker 2: even before you, it was taken for granted that you 55 00:03:26,720 --> 00:03:31,040 Speaker 2: could leave your farm, or leave your country an ocean away, 56 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:36,040 Speaker 2: come to an American city, work hard, and either you 57 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:39,360 Speaker 2: or perhaps your children would have the American dream of 58 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 2: owning a piece of land, the house on top of it, 59 00:03:42,720 --> 00:03:45,839 Speaker 2: and essentially controlling your own future. Because I think that's 60 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:49,320 Speaker 2: what it is. It's not being anyone's servant and not 61 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 2: being anyone's boss. We're not feudal lords and we're not 62 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:56,120 Speaker 2: feudal peasants. We are people in control of our own lives, 63 00:03:56,600 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 2: making our way day by day. And I think that's 64 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:01,600 Speaker 2: the core of the can dream. And fundamental to that 65 00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:05,600 Speaker 2: is being able to live somewhere where you have control 66 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 2: of your own property and that means ownership. 67 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:12,000 Speaker 1: But of that belief has declined that dramatically. That has 68 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:14,240 Speaker 1: huge implications for the future of the country. 69 00:04:14,800 --> 00:04:17,279 Speaker 2: That's right, and it means young people are going to 70 00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:22,040 Speaker 2: be supportive of radical solutions left and right. People are 71 00:04:22,040 --> 00:04:24,800 Speaker 2: willing to say, well, just burn it all down. It's 72 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:27,280 Speaker 2: not working for me. And I think that's really sad 73 00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:31,480 Speaker 2: because if you look at most of the high level numbers, 74 00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:34,040 Speaker 2: if you look at well has our unemployment, Well, we're 75 00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:38,960 Speaker 2: doing really well. We've had low unemployment through major economic shocks, 76 00:04:38,960 --> 00:04:41,800 Speaker 2: through COVID, we've managed to sort of ride that out 77 00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:44,640 Speaker 2: in our economic policy makers deserve a great seal of 78 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:48,560 Speaker 2: credit for that. We have high rates of education, lower 79 00:04:48,640 --> 00:04:51,640 Speaker 2: rates of teen pregnancy, lower rates of crime in our 80 00:04:51,640 --> 00:04:53,679 Speaker 2: big cities. Like a lot of things are going really 81 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:58,840 Speaker 2: really well. And the one big big thing that is 82 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:02,159 Speaker 2: blocking people from feeling like they are fully in control 83 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 2: of their lives is that they can't afford to buy 84 00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:07,279 Speaker 2: a house. I really think that's kind of a lynch 85 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:11,480 Speaker 2: pin in a society that's otherwise enjoying record levels of abundance. 86 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:14,359 Speaker 2: If I press a few buttons on a little computer 87 00:05:14,440 --> 00:05:17,240 Speaker 2: in my pocket, someone will send me a new pair 88 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 2: of shoes or a burrito to my house. That's phenomenal. 89 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:24,960 Speaker 2: And yet if I don't have the house, all of 90 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:26,200 Speaker 2: that feels a little bit empty. 91 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:29,320 Speaker 1: The Wall Street Journal poll found that fewer than one 92 00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:32,600 Speaker 1: fourth of the respondents said they were very confident they 93 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:35,200 Speaker 1: could buy a home if they wanted to. Fifty six 94 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:38,679 Speaker 1: percent over half said they had little or no confidence 95 00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:42,000 Speaker 1: they could buy a home. How central is this both 96 00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:44,680 Speaker 1: to the housing crisis and to the sense of the 97 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:45,760 Speaker 1: economy now working. 98 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:50,200 Speaker 2: I think it's absolutely central. Other things are working fine, right. 99 00:05:50,200 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 2: People have jobs, they're getting paid better than their parents were, 100 00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 2: better than their grandparents. But especially if they're in a 101 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:02,279 Speaker 2: high productivity coastal city with the great biotech jobs or 102 00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:05,800 Speaker 2: the great jobs in Silicon Valley, they're looking at, you know, 103 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:08,040 Speaker 2: all their wages may have doubled in a generation. Home 104 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:11,360 Speaker 2: prices have quadrupled, and you know, you can do a 105 00:06:11,360 --> 00:06:13,280 Speaker 2: couple things. So one thing that a lot of people 106 00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:15,480 Speaker 2: are doing is moving to the Sun Belt, right They're 107 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:20,400 Speaker 2: moving to San Antonio or Atlanta or Jacksonville, where the 108 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:24,000 Speaker 2: job opportunities aren't quite as good, but the home prices 109 00:06:24,040 --> 00:06:27,760 Speaker 2: are much more reasonable. Or they're staying put in a 110 00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:30,480 Speaker 2: place like Buffalo, New York, or a Flint, Michigan, where 111 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:34,600 Speaker 2: the job opportunities are distinctly poor, but there's a lot 112 00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:36,640 Speaker 2: of kind of older housing and if you don't mind, 113 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:38,440 Speaker 2: you know, dealing with some repairs, you can have a 114 00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 2: big place. Or they're doubling up, tripling up, renting in 115 00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:45,720 Speaker 2: the big cities and keeping that job and having, you know, again, 116 00:06:45,920 --> 00:06:47,560 Speaker 2: lots of good things in their lives, but not being 117 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:50,240 Speaker 2: able to make that next step and say, hey, now 118 00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 2: I own my own condominium, my own townhouse, my own 119 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:57,000 Speaker 2: single family home, quarter acre, and I'm going to get 120 00:06:57,000 --> 00:06:59,560 Speaker 2: married and I'm going to have children. So those steps 121 00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:03,599 Speaker 2: I think are really blocked for people who want to 122 00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:06,080 Speaker 2: have upward mobility and live in the most expensive cities. 123 00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:10,000 Speaker 1: I'm very curshed when we see the declining birth rates 124 00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:12,680 Speaker 1: for Americans to what extent do you think that is 125 00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:15,920 Speaker 1: a function of the inability to buy a home and 126 00:07:16,280 --> 00:07:19,239 Speaker 1: have a sense that you could actually have a secure future. 127 00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:21,760 Speaker 2: It has to matter. I don't think we have a 128 00:07:21,800 --> 00:07:23,640 Speaker 2: good number that we can put on it yet. I 129 00:07:23,680 --> 00:07:27,240 Speaker 2: know some really smart researchers who are working on this question. 130 00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:30,239 Speaker 2: But we know, for example, that the price of cars 131 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:32,680 Speaker 2: is a barrier to having a third child because it's 132 00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 2: expensive to get a car that fits three kids. Houses 133 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:37,800 Speaker 2: a lot more than a car, and kids tick up 134 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:39,120 Speaker 2: a lot of space in a house. I got five 135 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:41,560 Speaker 2: kids myself, so I know a thing or two about this. 136 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:45,680 Speaker 2: And if you can't get a place with a couple 137 00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:48,280 Speaker 2: of bedrooms, nobody's going to have kids living in a 138 00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:51,320 Speaker 2: one bedroom apartment. We need three bedroom, four bedroom places 139 00:07:51,680 --> 00:07:54,200 Speaker 2: of all kinds. And that's why I'm excited about townhouses. 140 00:07:54,240 --> 00:07:57,440 Speaker 2: I think those are the house type that's the cheapest, 141 00:07:57,440 --> 00:08:00,720 Speaker 2: that's the entry level for that tenty six year old 142 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:02,720 Speaker 2: who's like I found the person I want to spend 143 00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:05,760 Speaker 2: my life with. I want to have children, but I 144 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:07,920 Speaker 2: need a bedroom for the kids to live it. I 145 00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:10,400 Speaker 2: just it can't not matter. It has to matter. 146 00:08:11,200 --> 00:08:15,680 Speaker 1: In your analysis, how central do you think this idea 147 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:19,400 Speaker 1: of being able to own property to the whole fabric 148 00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:21,679 Speaker 1: of what has been historically America. 149 00:08:22,080 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's very important because, like I said, my conception 150 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:27,160 Speaker 2: of what it means to have the American dream of 151 00:08:27,320 --> 00:08:30,880 Speaker 2: being middle class, it's not being a lord, not being 152 00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:33,720 Speaker 2: a peasant. It's having control of yourself. And to do 153 00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 2: that you need to have some control of the property 154 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:39,080 Speaker 2: that you live on. Renting is great. I have nothing 155 00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:43,040 Speaker 2: against renters. There's an important time of your life for moving, 156 00:08:43,280 --> 00:08:45,160 Speaker 2: trying out a new place, trying out a new job. 157 00:08:45,280 --> 00:08:48,000 Speaker 2: I never want to sound like I'm putting a slur 158 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:49,960 Speaker 2: on that, because the other aspect of the American dream 159 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 2: is mobility, right, It's that ability to pick up move 160 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:55,440 Speaker 2: across the country. People used to do that when they 161 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:59,599 Speaker 2: couldn't even send a letter home reliably. And now bizarrely, 162 00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:03,080 Speaker 2: we're moving, as best we can tell, less than Americans 163 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:06,079 Speaker 2: have ever moved. And it's easier than it's ever been. 164 00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:08,760 Speaker 2: Load your possessions of the car, drive across the country. 165 00:09:08,760 --> 00:09:11,720 Speaker 2: It's safe and easy compared to what our forebears went through. 166 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 2: And yet we don't do it. And a big part 167 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:16,880 Speaker 2: of that is that the places with opportunity are too expensive. 168 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:19,280 Speaker 1: There is a large part of that just sheer price 169 00:09:19,920 --> 00:09:21,679 Speaker 1: that people just can't afford to do it. 170 00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:24,719 Speaker 2: There's a young lady I've known since she was a 171 00:09:24,760 --> 00:09:28,120 Speaker 2: twelve year old. She's babysat my kids. She's now spreading 172 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:30,080 Speaker 2: her wings, moving out of her own her parents' home, 173 00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:33,000 Speaker 2: and she wants to be an actress. And you can 174 00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:36,600 Speaker 2: think of all the generations of talented young women who've 175 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:38,800 Speaker 2: moved out to Los Angeles and tried to make it 176 00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:41,800 Speaker 2: in Hollywood and the odds aren't great, but gosh, that's 177 00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:44,640 Speaker 2: such an American story, and that's what she wanted to do. 178 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:47,360 Speaker 2: And she looked at it, she gave it a serious look, 179 00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:49,880 Speaker 2: and she said, you know, I can't even get an 180 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:54,320 Speaker 2: apartment anywhere near Hollywood, and it's not worth pursuing my 181 00:09:54,440 --> 00:09:57,080 Speaker 2: dream there. I'm going to go to a secondary city. 182 00:09:57,080 --> 00:10:00,560 Speaker 2: Atlanta has kind of a second or third tier film industry, 183 00:10:01,160 --> 00:10:03,880 Speaker 2: and I'm going to try to break in through during 184 00:10:03,880 --> 00:10:07,440 Speaker 2: commercials or smaller TV shows in Atlanta. And I just 185 00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:11,360 Speaker 2: it's so sad that someone with a big dream, an 186 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:13,440 Speaker 2: unlikely dream, she wants to make it to the big leagues, 187 00:10:14,000 --> 00:10:18,040 Speaker 2: and instead she's gonna settle for hoping to make it 188 00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:22,319 Speaker 2: in the minors because she can't afford a single room 189 00:10:22,400 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 2: to rent in a great American city. 190 00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 1: You've pointed out from your work that part of the 191 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:48,960 Speaker 1: response has been a tremendous increase in state legislative efforts 192 00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:53,000 Speaker 1: to increase housing supply. I mean the numbers that you've reported, 193 00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:56,400 Speaker 1: where you go from like ten housing supply goes past 194 00:10:56,440 --> 00:10:59,040 Speaker 1: them the last six months of twenty two to one 195 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:03,120 Speaker 1: hundred and four housing supply bills passed in the last 196 00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:05,960 Speaker 1: six months. What's happening at the state. 197 00:11:05,840 --> 00:11:09,240 Speaker 2: Level, and that's the good news is that we aren't 198 00:11:09,240 --> 00:11:11,839 Speaker 2: the only people who understand this, and I think state 199 00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:17,439 Speaker 2: legislators in the last two maybe three election cycles, they've 200 00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:20,800 Speaker 2: had a new plank in their platforms, our Democrats and Republicans. 201 00:11:21,080 --> 00:11:24,000 Speaker 2: They are telling their voters, I'm going to do something 202 00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:26,360 Speaker 2: about the cost of living, about the cost of housing, 203 00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:29,839 Speaker 2: about home ownership. They didn't used to say that, right, 204 00:11:29,840 --> 00:11:32,200 Speaker 2: This was just not part of the job of being 205 00:11:32,240 --> 00:11:35,839 Speaker 2: a state rep and now it is because that's the 206 00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:39,000 Speaker 2: biggest problem in their constituents' lives. And so once they've 207 00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:42,040 Speaker 2: told their voters, I'm going to do something. Then they 208 00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:43,600 Speaker 2: come to people like me and they say, hey, Salim, 209 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:47,680 Speaker 2: what do I do? How do I untie this? Knot 210 00:11:47,760 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 2: bring home ownership back into the realm of possibilities, open 211 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:55,080 Speaker 2: up the rentals that someone like my former babysitter could take. 212 00:11:55,960 --> 00:11:58,880 Speaker 2: We've given them good advice to lots of other folks. Researchers, 213 00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:01,280 Speaker 2: advocates are out there giving them good advice. And I 214 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:04,600 Speaker 2: think it's actually really important to note there are bad ideas, right. 215 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:08,080 Speaker 2: There are ideas like, well, let's just ban Wall Street 216 00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:10,600 Speaker 2: investments in housing. Well, those are small potatoes. You wouldn't 217 00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:12,800 Speaker 2: do much of anything anyway. Or let's use rent control, 218 00:12:12,840 --> 00:12:14,640 Speaker 2: let's just stop the rent. So zar On Mondomi wants 219 00:12:14,679 --> 00:12:16,880 Speaker 2: to do this in New York City. Well that's counterproductive. 220 00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:18,960 Speaker 1: Explain why it's counterproductive. 221 00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 2: Rent control at best stops your rent from going up. Well, 222 00:12:22,520 --> 00:12:26,720 Speaker 2: it's really high to begin with, so at best you 223 00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:30,000 Speaker 2: get a declining product. Right, Your apartment kind of gets 224 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:32,160 Speaker 2: worse and worse over time. So there's still apartments in 225 00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:34,680 Speaker 2: New York City. They're really rent controlled ones. They don't 226 00:12:34,679 --> 00:12:38,320 Speaker 2: even have hot water because then they got rent control 227 00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:40,600 Speaker 2: in the forties, they didn't have hot water and it's 228 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:43,800 Speaker 2: never been worth the landlord's money to put in hot 229 00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:46,240 Speaker 2: water and get back a few bucks a month. And 230 00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:48,600 Speaker 2: so you want to extend this system to every apartment 231 00:12:48,640 --> 00:12:51,640 Speaker 2: in New York City. Again, at best, you're freezing the rents. 232 00:12:51,679 --> 00:12:53,920 Speaker 2: That's not good enough. If you go to a place 233 00:12:53,920 --> 00:12:56,560 Speaker 2: where they're actually building a lot of housing and they 234 00:12:56,559 --> 00:12:58,560 Speaker 2: say we're gonna let it rep We're going to let 235 00:12:58,600 --> 00:13:02,760 Speaker 2: developers come in here, make money, build towers, build townhouses, 236 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:07,120 Speaker 2: build subdivisions, then guess what The rent goes down. That's 237 00:13:07,120 --> 00:13:09,720 Speaker 2: the story in Denver, that's the story in Austin. The 238 00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:13,200 Speaker 2: rent is actually falling. Even in Montgomery County, Maryland, where 239 00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:15,840 Speaker 2: I live. It's been a place that has embraced growth 240 00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:20,240 Speaker 2: and the result is on average, rents fall over time, 241 00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:22,560 Speaker 2: they don't rise. And so we can do better than 242 00:13:22,559 --> 00:13:26,400 Speaker 2: rent control. The market actually can beat rent control. So 243 00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:29,160 Speaker 2: instead you do rent control, you get a falling quality 244 00:13:29,520 --> 00:13:33,120 Speaker 2: and stagnating prices instead of rising quality and falling prices, 245 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:34,840 Speaker 2: which is what you can get from a market. 246 00:13:35,000 --> 00:13:36,880 Speaker 1: Why is it so hard to explain that in a 247 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:37,680 Speaker 1: place like New. 248 00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:40,720 Speaker 2: York Because they've poisoned the well for so long, They've 249 00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:43,839 Speaker 2: made it so hard to build for so long, they've 250 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:48,719 Speaker 2: completely forgotten what a functional market looks like. So when 251 00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:51,800 Speaker 2: they're thinking about, oh, well, if I don't have the 252 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:54,959 Speaker 2: government on my side beating up on my landlord, then 253 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:58,199 Speaker 2: my landlord is going to like put me over a barrel. 254 00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:01,559 Speaker 2: And that's true because they haven't let anyone compete with 255 00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:04,120 Speaker 2: their landlord. But if they said, hey, your landlord could 256 00:14:04,120 --> 00:14:05,600 Speaker 2: try to get you over a barrel. But hey, there's 257 00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:09,280 Speaker 2: a new building opening up a block away, and the 258 00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:11,679 Speaker 2: condos there are twenty five percent cheaper than your apartment, 259 00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:13,960 Speaker 2: so you can go buy a condo. Because we let 260 00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:15,679 Speaker 2: people build a ton of new ones and they're trying 261 00:14:15,679 --> 00:14:18,080 Speaker 2: to get them off their hands. And that's what happens 262 00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:21,000 Speaker 2: when you let a market work, is you will have 263 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:25,280 Speaker 2: producers competing on price, and you'll get lower rents and 264 00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 2: lower prices and rising quality instead of the opposite. 265 00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:31,080 Speaker 1: But as I understand it, in New York, there is 266 00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:36,000 Speaker 1: currently no possibility of passing that kind of positive reform. 267 00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:38,760 Speaker 2: Mayor Eric Adams he had a number of issues and 268 00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:42,600 Speaker 2: is the reason he's losing his seed, but he looked 269 00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:45,000 Speaker 2: like he was going to make some serious steps towards 270 00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:47,240 Speaker 2: allowing more housing. He had a City of Yes agenda, 271 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:50,840 Speaker 2: which was mostly positive. It wasn't about rent control. And 272 00:14:50,880 --> 00:14:54,640 Speaker 2: there's a balant initiative actually that should go before the voters, 273 00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:59,760 Speaker 2: which would remove the prerogative of city councilors to unilattery 274 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:03,880 Speaker 2: kill any project in their district. And guess what, the 275 00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:07,160 Speaker 2: city council is trying to keep the voters from having 276 00:15:07,240 --> 00:15:10,000 Speaker 2: the chance of voting on this ballot measure. So that's 277 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:12,320 Speaker 2: a big fight. We'll see how it plays out. But 278 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:14,000 Speaker 2: there's at least a chance that the voters of New 279 00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 2: York City will be able to take this into their 280 00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:18,960 Speaker 2: own hands and it at least makes some steps towards 281 00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:20,040 Speaker 2: allowing more construction. 282 00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:26,520 Speaker 1: How much is the not in my backyard attitude slow 283 00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:29,240 Speaker 1: down everything that raised costs? I was very struck. In 284 00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:33,160 Speaker 1: nineteen ninety six, we did a Republican National Convention in 285 00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:36,600 Speaker 1: San Diego, and I've been working with Jimmy Carter on 286 00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:39,960 Speaker 1: Habitat for Humanity, so we decided we would build a 287 00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:44,680 Speaker 1: Habitat for Humanity in San Diego. And the cost of 288 00:15:44,800 --> 00:15:49,400 Speaker 1: the permits was greater than the total cost of building 289 00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:52,160 Speaker 1: the same house in Georgia. That it was a great 290 00:15:52,280 --> 00:15:54,960 Speaker 1: education for me because here we are, we're trying to 291 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:57,640 Speaker 1: help a poor family earn the right to have a 292 00:15:57,680 --> 00:16:01,440 Speaker 1: decent house by helping them build a house. And it's 293 00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:05,800 Speaker 1: quite clear that San Diego County had no interest in 294 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:07,800 Speaker 1: affordable housing for poor people. 295 00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 2: That's right. One of my friends helps run Habitat for 296 00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:14,920 Speaker 2: Humunity in Austin, Texas, and at a certain point he 297 00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:17,360 Speaker 2: just gave up on buying land. It had become so 298 00:16:17,480 --> 00:16:20,680 Speaker 2: expensive and they don't have fees like that in Texas. 299 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:24,640 Speaker 2: But the land crisis because land that you were allowed 300 00:16:24,640 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 2: to build on had become so scarce and so much demand, 301 00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:30,840 Speaker 2: he could not make it make sense for his organization 302 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:33,240 Speaker 2: for a couple of years, and so instead he worked 303 00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:35,640 Speaker 2: with me and others to bring good ideas to the 304 00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:37,600 Speaker 2: Texas state legislature. So one of the things they did 305 00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:41,480 Speaker 2: is they capped fees. Another thing is they said, in 306 00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:44,880 Speaker 2: the big Texas cities, you have to allow small lot sizes. 307 00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:48,280 Speaker 2: You can't say every home needs a quarter acre. You've 308 00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:49,760 Speaker 2: got to be able to go down to three thousand 309 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:52,280 Speaker 2: square feet, which is like a large townhouse lot or 310 00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:56,040 Speaker 2: a small lot for a small habitat type home. That's 311 00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:59,560 Speaker 2: going to make sense for habitat Austin and the other 312 00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:03,440 Speaker 2: big Techxas cities. If they can find a site that's undeveloped, 313 00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:06,560 Speaker 2: they can say, okay, we can put on a half 314 00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:09,280 Speaker 2: acre site. Now we can put six or seven homes 315 00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:12,359 Speaker 2: instead of one or two, and then all of a sudden, 316 00:17:12,359 --> 00:17:14,440 Speaker 2: the math makes sense for them and those kind of 317 00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:17,240 Speaker 2: starter homes, even if you're not a charity. So Lenard 318 00:17:17,240 --> 00:17:20,520 Speaker 2: one of the biggest homebuilders, they're building tiny homes in 319 00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:24,520 Speaker 2: Texas because Texas has passed laws state and local to 320 00:17:24,560 --> 00:17:27,879 Speaker 2: say we want to have entry level home ownership. We 321 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:31,119 Speaker 2: understand this is not most people's dream to own a 322 00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:34,040 Speaker 2: little house on a postage stamp the size of an apartment. Sure, 323 00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:37,440 Speaker 2: but maybe that's where your dream starts. You start building equity, 324 00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:39,679 Speaker 2: you get control, and eventually you can build an addition 325 00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:40,600 Speaker 2: on that tiny house. 326 00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:43,399 Speaker 1: From that standpoint, what is that dear to the fear 327 00:17:43,440 --> 00:17:46,680 Speaker 1: of people in existing houses that their home value will 328 00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:47,120 Speaker 1: go down. 329 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:51,240 Speaker 2: We've made people to promises in this country and they're incompatible. 330 00:17:51,359 --> 00:17:53,119 Speaker 2: One is that their home price will always go up, 331 00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:54,520 Speaker 2: and the other is that their children will be able 332 00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:56,840 Speaker 2: to afford to buy a house. And there's some middle 333 00:17:56,840 --> 00:18:01,359 Speaker 2: ground where you have a stable asset and you're able 334 00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:03,399 Speaker 2: to sell your home for a little bit more than 335 00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:06,160 Speaker 2: you bought it to account for inflation. But your children, 336 00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:10,080 Speaker 2: with their incomes can still buy homes, and that bargain's 337 00:18:10,119 --> 00:18:12,760 Speaker 2: broken down. It's obviously broken in one direction. And so 338 00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:15,840 Speaker 2: I think people like you and I who own our homes, 339 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:19,440 Speaker 2: we have to accept that it's not going to be 340 00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:21,960 Speaker 2: a hedge fund. It might be stable. It's a stable 341 00:18:21,960 --> 00:18:24,080 Speaker 2: store of value, it's a place to live, it will 342 00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:26,679 Speaker 2: continue to be a good place. The reality is building 343 00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:28,600 Speaker 2: a few more homes in your neighborhood does not tank 344 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:33,320 Speaker 2: your home price. And accepting that something maybe not literally 345 00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:36,720 Speaker 2: in your backyard, but across the street or three blocks away, 346 00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:39,520 Speaker 2: in what you've kind of thought of as open space 347 00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:42,240 Speaker 2: but was actually just somebody's land, and that person wants 348 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:45,040 Speaker 2: to subdivide their land and put a townhouse development, and 349 00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:47,520 Speaker 2: saying if we don't build this kind of thing, my 350 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:50,199 Speaker 2: children will never be able to afford a home in 351 00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:53,160 Speaker 2: this community, and accepting that and saying supply and demand 352 00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:56,960 Speaker 2: are going to keep prices moderate, and that's okay. Moderate 353 00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:58,720 Speaker 2: growth is okay. I don't need my house to be 354 00:18:58,720 --> 00:18:59,240 Speaker 2: a hedge Fund. 355 00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:02,840 Speaker 1: So few tracked these reforms, and it looks like on 356 00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:06,880 Speaker 1: the surface, the Texas may be the most reform oriented 357 00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:07,879 Speaker 1: state legislature. 358 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:13,000 Speaker 2: It was their first time, their first real like steping 359 00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:15,440 Speaker 2: into the rodeo and making some big things happen, and 360 00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:18,240 Speaker 2: it passed I think seven eight nine bills this year, 361 00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:21,560 Speaker 2: really impressive ones. But there's other states that have been 362 00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:24,200 Speaker 2: working on this for a long time. California, to its credit, 363 00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:27,359 Speaker 2: they were in the deepest hole and they've been trying 364 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:28,960 Speaker 2: to climb their way out of it for the longest. 365 00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:31,080 Speaker 2: There's still in a hole you don't want to be 366 00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:35,240 Speaker 2: where California is, But I give them credit for trying 367 00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:38,639 Speaker 2: to work in the right direction. Montana and Washington State, though, 368 00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:39,680 Speaker 2: are actually my champions. 369 00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:42,119 Speaker 1: What made the difference? Why did those two coalesce and 370 00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:44,600 Speaker 1: suddenly become very reform oriented. 371 00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:47,720 Speaker 2: So in Montana, right, it's a red state, but they 372 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:51,360 Speaker 2: have included the Democrats and reform efforts. And a big 373 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:54,560 Speaker 2: part of that was especially after COVID And actually I 374 00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:58,640 Speaker 2: just was chatting with Senator Danny Zolnikoff from Montana. He said, Gosh, 375 00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:01,919 Speaker 2: I hate the show Yellowstone. It was the hit show 376 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:05,119 Speaker 2: when everyone was stuck at home during COVID and hated 377 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:08,520 Speaker 2: their condos in California, and so they all moved to Montana. 378 00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:10,800 Speaker 2: And it doesn't take a lot of Californians to be 379 00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:13,119 Speaker 2: a big number of people in Montana. And they came 380 00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:15,000 Speaker 2: with all this home equity that they had from selling 381 00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:17,240 Speaker 2: what they owned in California and brought it and they 382 00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:21,360 Speaker 2: could just outbid almost any local Montana And so they'll 383 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:24,320 Speaker 2: complain about it. You can complain, but this is a 384 00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:27,040 Speaker 2: US constitution. You can't stop people from moving to your state. 385 00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:29,119 Speaker 2: What you can do is say, we're going to make 386 00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:31,600 Speaker 2: it really easy to build houses, so we can have 387 00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:34,439 Speaker 2: brand new homes for the people who loved Yellowstone on 388 00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:36,720 Speaker 2: TV and want to move out here, and they could 389 00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:39,159 Speaker 2: buy those eight hundred thousand dollars brand new homes, and 390 00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:42,520 Speaker 2: let's keep the existing Montana homes at three hundred four hundred, 391 00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:46,399 Speaker 2: where at least in Montana has a fighting chance. And 392 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:48,440 Speaker 2: then eventually, if we do enough and maybe people forget 393 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:50,880 Speaker 2: about Yellowstone, then those prices start to come back down 394 00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:51,520 Speaker 2: to where they were. 395 00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:54,120 Speaker 1: But Montana is a huge state. You have a lot 396 00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:57,120 Speaker 1: of space in Montana for people to still show up. 397 00:20:57,760 --> 00:20:58,120 Speaker 1: You do. 398 00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:00,040 Speaker 2: But I think this is interesting. People don't want to 399 00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:02,600 Speaker 2: live in the middle of nowhere. They don't even want 400 00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:05,360 Speaker 2: to live in a lot of the kind of boring 401 00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:08,400 Speaker 2: prairie towns. Right, so you get billings or great falls, 402 00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:12,040 Speaker 2: those aren't having the boom that Missoula and Bow's Men, 403 00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:13,840 Speaker 2: which are near the mountains are having. Some people want 404 00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:18,000 Speaker 2: to live where there's beautiful views of the mountains and 405 00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:20,240 Speaker 2: some nice local amenities. They want to have a grocery 406 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 2: store in a hospital reasonably, and they want to be 407 00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:25,399 Speaker 2: able to walk some places and not just do the 408 00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 2: half hour drive and if they bought a ranch in 409 00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:31,320 Speaker 2: the country. And that's true not just in Montana, but nationally. 410 00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:34,760 Speaker 2: People want to have walkability and that means building houses 411 00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:36,919 Speaker 2: near where other people are. Right. If it was just 412 00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:38,440 Speaker 2: a matter of like, well, can we build a few 413 00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:42,320 Speaker 2: more homes on some ranches twenty miles from town, that 414 00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:45,240 Speaker 2: wouldn't have been an issue. But the demand was for 415 00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:48,960 Speaker 2: more homes in town. And that's where you have to 416 00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:54,040 Speaker 2: kind of balance these interests and say, hey, for Montana's 417 00:21:54,040 --> 00:21:55,800 Speaker 2: to own their homes. If you want your kids to 418 00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:57,680 Speaker 2: be able to live in town, and you want to 419 00:21:57,680 --> 00:21:59,760 Speaker 2: see your grandkids. You have to build some homes for 420 00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 2: ca Californians too, and that's a tough trade off. I 421 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:06,280 Speaker 2: really applaud Montanas for coming together across party lines and 422 00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:09,359 Speaker 2: saying we can only build our way out of this. 423 00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:11,119 Speaker 2: We cannot complain our way out of it. 424 00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:30,359 Speaker 1: Some people have been suggesting that the federal government owned 425 00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:33,000 Speaker 1: so much land, for example in Nevada, that you could 426 00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:36,439 Speaker 1: literally build entire new cities. I mean, is that plausible, 427 00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:37,480 Speaker 1: I mean. 428 00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:40,119 Speaker 2: You could building new cities is a fraud endeavor. It 429 00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:42,639 Speaker 2: works once in a while, but usually it fails. So 430 00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:45,320 Speaker 2: you were probably in office as part of passing the 431 00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:49,040 Speaker 2: Southern Nevada Public Land Management Act. So that's a great 432 00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:52,280 Speaker 2: model at bipartisan roots, with your involvement in Harry Reid's 433 00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:55,320 Speaker 2: and it should just be expanded nationally. There's no other 434 00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:58,680 Speaker 2: big city that's as much federally constrained as Las Vegas. 435 00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:01,200 Speaker 2: Like Las Vegas. If you go to the last subdivision 436 00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:03,879 Speaker 2: to throw a rock, it lands in federal land all 437 00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:04,680 Speaker 2: the way around the city. 438 00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:08,960 Speaker 1: I think the FED zone like ninety something percent of Nevada. 439 00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:14,080 Speaker 2: That's astonishing, right, Nevada needed the most, but other cities 440 00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:15,720 Speaker 2: need this too. And there's federal land around some of 441 00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:19,320 Speaker 2: the smaller cities in Utah, Idaho, Montana. It's not as much, 442 00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:21,920 Speaker 2: it's not as severe, it's not perfect, but it works 443 00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:25,639 Speaker 2: south of Nevada, Snipoma, that's what they call it. It works. 444 00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:28,800 Speaker 2: And just taking that model national and saying, hey, anywhere 445 00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:31,080 Speaker 2: that the FED zone land, you should be able to 446 00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:33,760 Speaker 2: sell that land to a private developer who has a 447 00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:36,800 Speaker 2: plan to bring water and sewer, turn it into urban 448 00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:39,119 Speaker 2: or suburban space, and then the Feds are able to 449 00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:44,040 Speaker 2: take that revenue and improve conservation land. That's really special, right, 450 00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:46,760 Speaker 2: the places that are beautiful, the national parks where we 451 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:50,720 Speaker 2: need upkeep and amenities. It creates a revenue stream and 452 00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:53,840 Speaker 2: is able to improve public land in Nevada. And so 453 00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:57,360 Speaker 2: it's really a win win for conservation and home prices. 454 00:23:57,480 --> 00:23:59,400 Speaker 2: But I think it could be overstated. There's all this land, 455 00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:02,080 Speaker 2: but as I said, in Montana, most people don't want 456 00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:05,159 Speaker 2: to live a twenty mile drive from the grocery store, 457 00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:07,720 Speaker 2: and so that the amount of demand that you can 458 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:09,440 Speaker 2: siphon off on federal land is moderate. 459 00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:12,479 Speaker 1: Yeah, and everything that's going on, do you expect the 460 00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:16,440 Speaker 1: pace of reform to accelerate or to slow in twenty six. 461 00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:20,399 Speaker 2: It's a great question. So election years are usually a 462 00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:22,880 Speaker 2: little bit down, it might be about the same level 463 00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:24,920 Speaker 2: because I think there's a general upward trend. We've seen 464 00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:29,040 Speaker 2: every year for the last four or five years, rising interest, 465 00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:32,040 Speaker 2: rising numbers of states that are saying this is our 466 00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:35,200 Speaker 2: problem too, and our home praises don't seem to be falling. 467 00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:37,240 Speaker 2: The thing that would really take the wind out of it, 468 00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:38,800 Speaker 2: as if home praises collapse, if we had a big 469 00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:42,760 Speaker 2: recession and everybody shifted their focus from cost of living 470 00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:46,240 Speaker 2: to unemployment, for instance. But aside from the election, of 471 00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:48,000 Speaker 2: the election issue, we'll take some people away. People don't 472 00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:50,119 Speaker 2: want to take big risks. They're spending more of their 473 00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:52,520 Speaker 2: time out on the campaign trail. I think we'll be 474 00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:55,640 Speaker 2: at least moderately up in twenty six, and I think 475 00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:58,280 Speaker 2: we'll see states in the middle of the country. Right. 476 00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:01,080 Speaker 2: We talk to people in Michigan and I these are 477 00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:04,439 Speaker 2: not booming coastal economies, but they still feel the pinch, 478 00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:07,320 Speaker 2: and so they are leaning and saying we need some 479 00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:10,200 Speaker 2: of these same solutions. And we didn't think we needed 480 00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:11,919 Speaker 2: to economize, but we need to make sure that you 481 00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:14,679 Speaker 2: can build a backyard cottage in Des Moines, or that 482 00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:18,440 Speaker 2: you can have a hud code manufactured home installed anywhere 483 00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:21,600 Speaker 2: in Michigan, because sometimes the price of construction is just 484 00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:22,040 Speaker 2: too great. 485 00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:27,080 Speaker 1: The struggle between the classic stick built housing and the 486 00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:31,200 Speaker 1: capacity of factory built housing has been a real tension point, 487 00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:34,480 Speaker 1: and as it always seemed to me that the potential 488 00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:39,800 Speaker 1: for dramatically better factory built homes that frankly were indistinguishable 489 00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:43,440 Speaker 1: from the classic is there, and there's something we probably 490 00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:44,439 Speaker 1: should use a lot more of. 491 00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,080 Speaker 2: Yes, there are a few reforms moving right now so 492 00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:51,280 Speaker 2: to make hud code factory built homes a little bit 493 00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:53,719 Speaker 2: more like stick built ones. Part of it is that 494 00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:57,199 Speaker 2: moving the work indoors doesn't save you that much, right. 495 00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:00,359 Speaker 2: It helps a little bit in cold climates, but then 496 00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:02,280 Speaker 2: you have the cost of shipping, so there hasn't been 497 00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:05,520 Speaker 2: huge savings without a lot of automation. So there are 498 00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:09,000 Speaker 2: some entrepreneurs who're trying to make factory built much more 499 00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:13,480 Speaker 2: productive by using advanced manufacturing techniques, the kinds of things 500 00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:15,800 Speaker 2: that the administration is kind of trying to bring back 501 00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:18,920 Speaker 2: to the US. Technically, we'll see how that works. You've 502 00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:21,400 Speaker 2: still got to deliver this product, which is very large 503 00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:24,399 Speaker 2: and cumbersome to a home site. The stick built will 504 00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:27,760 Speaker 2: always have the advantage that you can move the lumber 505 00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:29,480 Speaker 2: as lumber instead of moving in as a house. 506 00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:33,160 Speaker 1: If the wave of reforms a you monitor and you encourage, 507 00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:36,399 Speaker 1: if they continue save for the next ten or fifteen years, 508 00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,199 Speaker 1: what do you think housing in America will look like 509 00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:40,200 Speaker 1: fifteen years from now? 510 00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:44,639 Speaker 2: I love that question, so I think if you're in 511 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:49,200 Speaker 2: Texas or Arizona, you won't notice at all, because essentially 512 00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:51,360 Speaker 2: what they're doing there is trying to protect what they've 513 00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:54,199 Speaker 2: had for decades, and they're trying to fight back against 514 00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:57,960 Speaker 2: recent increases in regulation. When I talk to people in Arizona, 515 00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:00,760 Speaker 2: they're just trying to get back to twenty nineteen. If 516 00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:05,600 Speaker 2: you're in Massachusetts or Maryland, certainly in California, it could 517 00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:08,720 Speaker 2: be a totally radical shift. You could be seeing completely 518 00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:13,960 Speaker 2: new types of housing innovations. You could be seeing kinds 519 00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:17,000 Speaker 2: of neighborhoods literally have not been built since the fifties. 520 00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:20,360 Speaker 2: You can be seeing a lot more tall apartment buildings 521 00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:23,560 Speaker 2: because there's so much demand for space that if you 522 00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:25,919 Speaker 2: take your renters and spread them out, they're just going 523 00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:27,320 Speaker 2: to take up a lot of space, and you say, well, 524 00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:32,000 Speaker 2: when we've got mass transit systems and major cities with 525 00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:34,399 Speaker 2: hundreds of thousands of jobs and in narrow space, we 526 00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:37,640 Speaker 2: need to build thirty story buildings by those transit stations. 527 00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:41,399 Speaker 2: So you might see completely different looks in some of 528 00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:44,560 Speaker 2: those places because they need so much change. They have 529 00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:47,399 Speaker 2: been sitting it out for fifty years, and it's going 530 00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:48,720 Speaker 2: to be a lot of catch up for them. 531 00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:51,840 Speaker 1: Do you think that from a young person's standpoint, they'll 532 00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:55,040 Speaker 1: have a better opportunity the generation that grows up, say 533 00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:57,560 Speaker 1: fifteen years from now, we'll have a better opportunity to 534 00:27:57,560 --> 00:27:58,080 Speaker 1: buy house. 535 00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:01,280 Speaker 2: One hundred percent very sad if it was not the case. 536 00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:05,760 Speaker 2: You know, if I meet somebody just in general conversation, 537 00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:09,639 Speaker 2: if they are younger than me, they almost always agree 538 00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:13,080 Speaker 2: with me on policy. That's like, doesn't matter whether they're 539 00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:15,560 Speaker 2: lefty or righty, whether they're from the middle of the 540 00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:18,439 Speaker 2: country the coasts. They just instinctively say, oh, we need 541 00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:20,320 Speaker 2: to build more housing. None of my friends can afford 542 00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:22,920 Speaker 2: a home. And if I meet somebody who's my parents' age, 543 00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:25,840 Speaker 2: unless they have kids who are in this process, they 544 00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:27,480 Speaker 2: might have tuned out. They might be like well, things 545 00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:29,600 Speaker 2: are fine. My property taxes are a little too high. 546 00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:32,000 Speaker 2: That's my only complaint, and they can be a little 547 00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:34,480 Speaker 2: checked out and they can sometimes miss it. I'm really 548 00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:37,800 Speaker 2: encouraged when I do meet someone in that generation. Action 549 00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:40,160 Speaker 2: met someone at the playground last night. I was a 550 00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:44,120 Speaker 2: grandfather of some playmates in my children, and he gets it. 551 00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:46,040 Speaker 2: It was in Oakland, California, and he gets it. He said, 552 00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:49,040 Speaker 2: we need your stuff in Oakland because nobody can afford 553 00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:49,360 Speaker 2: a house. 554 00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:51,640 Speaker 1: So I want to thank you for joining me. This 555 00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:56,320 Speaker 1: is a really important question about the whole future of 556 00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:59,720 Speaker 1: the country, because if we lose a generation, they no 557 00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:03,800 Speaker 1: longer who believes the American dreams possible. Then it's ironically, 558 00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:06,040 Speaker 1: on our two hundred and fiftieth anniversary as a country, 559 00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:09,800 Speaker 1: we're really putting the whole country at risk. Your policy brief, 560 00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:14,280 Speaker 1: Framing Futures pro Housing Legislation goes Vertical in twenty twenty five, 561 00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:18,239 Speaker 1: is available now for citizens across the country who are 562 00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:20,440 Speaker 1: interested in helping solve this problem. You can go to 563 00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:23,800 Speaker 1: Mercadis dot org and I think you'll find that this 564 00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:27,360 Speaker 1: brief really gives you some ideas for your state and 565 00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:30,640 Speaker 1: your legislature and Selim. I want to thank you for joining. 566 00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:33,240 Speaker 2: Me now, mister speaker, It's been a privilege. I really 567 00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:35,840 Speaker 2: look forward to continuous conversation with a lot of other 568 00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:36,360 Speaker 2: people too. 569 00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:42,000 Speaker 1: Thank you to my guest, Selim Firth. You can get 570 00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:45,720 Speaker 1: a link to his policy brief framing futures pro housing 571 00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:48,920 Speaker 1: legislation goes vertical in twenty twenty five on our show 572 00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:52,920 Speaker 1: page at newtsworld dot com. Newtworld is produced by Getting Wish. 573 00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:57,160 Speaker 1: We sixty an iHeartMedia are executive producers Guardnzie Sloan. Our 574 00:29:57,280 --> 00:30:00,280 Speaker 1: researcher is Rachel Peterson. The art work for this show 575 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,680 Speaker 1: was created by Steve Penley. Special thanks to the team 576 00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:06,719 Speaker 1: at Gingrish for sixty. If you've been enjoying Newtsworld, I 577 00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:09,360 Speaker 1: hope you'll go to Apple Podcasts and both rate us 578 00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:12,360 Speaker 1: with five stars and give us a review so others 579 00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:15,600 Speaker 1: can learn what it's all about. Right now, listeners of 580 00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:19,600 Speaker 1: Newtsworld can sign up for my three freeweekly columns at 581 00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:23,960 Speaker 1: gingrishwo sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm Newt Gingrich. This 582 00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:24,880 Speaker 1: is Nutsworld.