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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for

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Speaker 2: the future of the show.

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Speaker 1: This is the only place where you can find honest

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Speaker 1: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does

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Speaker 1: not exist anywhere else.

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Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please

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Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and

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Speaker 2: you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad free,

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Speaker 2: and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

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Speaker 1: We need your help to build the future of independent

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Speaker 1: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

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Speaker 1: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday. We have an

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Speaker 1: amazing show for everybody today, extra amazing because Crystal is back.

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Speaker 2: Thanks, thank yousing me back here in the chair. We

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Speaker 2: have a lot of stuff on the show, but actually

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Speaker 2: before we even get to the show bar and all

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Speaker 2: the stuff that's going on there, we have some pretty

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Speaker 2: significant show announcements.

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Speaker 3: About things that we are up to.

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Speaker 2: So first of all, you guys know we've been doing

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Speaker 2: this like ad hoc Friday.

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Speaker 3: We've been calling it a mini show. Whoever can show up.

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Speaker 2: We were able to get all four of us together

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Speaker 2: last Friday, which were super cool. Saga was able to join.

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Speaker 2: It's been Me and Ryan, Me and Ryan and Emily

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Speaker 2: whoever can sort of join. So we have decided, thanks

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Speaker 2: to you guys as support out there making this happen,

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Speaker 2: that we are going to officially make a Friday show

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Speaker 2: a thing. That's right, So going forward, expanding out to

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Speaker 2: the full five weekdays for Breaking Points to Slash Counterpoints,

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Speaker 2: and we're also going to do an extra bonus second

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Speaker 2: half that is going to be gated and exclusive for

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Speaker 2: premium subscribers. So big deal for us in our expansion here.

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Speaker 2: And I guess it's kind of the opposite of a

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Speaker 2: recession in that's right, you know, taking a bit of

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Speaker 2: a risk at this point.

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Speaker 1: As much as we have said about being conservative, we

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Speaker 1: just see the appetite and we know how much it

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Speaker 1: means to our premium subscribers and to all of our

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Speaker 1: audience to officially be five days week. So if you

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Speaker 1: guys can help us out Breakingpoints dot Com, we are

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Speaker 1: genuinely taking a financial risk in this, you know, obviously

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Speaker 1: making Ryan and Emily a bigger part of the entire

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Speaker 1: not even bigger part of the show. They are, you know,

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Speaker 1: all four of us together are now really coming together

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Speaker 1: as a team as an Avengers to make sure that

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Speaker 1: there's five days a week of coverage. You guys saw

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Speaker 1: the bro Show yesterday, the mix in the match and

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Speaker 1: all of that is enabled because of you to be

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Speaker 1: able to provide that we are going to be going

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Speaker 1: live on a lot more occasions, and so we do

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Speaker 1: have the AMA live there in our show bar. That

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Speaker 1: is something that we do after today's show that we

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Speaker 1: will wrap. I will have, by the way, a surprise announcement,

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Speaker 1: just a personal announcement that will drop exclusively in our

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Speaker 1: AMA and for our premium subscribers early. But more importantly,

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Speaker 1: this is just about being able to find five days

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Speaker 1: a week, more opportunities for lives. We're building more opportunities

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Speaker 1: to get the breaking points, community actually engaged, utilizing our platform,

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Speaker 1: be able to deliver the show in any possible way

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Speaker 1: that we can, and so broadly, this is just about

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Speaker 1: taking a risk at this time when we know that

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Speaker 1: as financial precarity for all of you and also frankly

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Speaker 1: for us, but we do still feel that it's really

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Speaker 1: really important to try and to take this risk right now,

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Speaker 1: and so that's just something if you could help us

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Speaker 1: out Breakingpoints dot com as I mentioned. But just finally,

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Speaker 1: and this is very important because as I just acknowledge

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Speaker 1: that there's a lot of uncertainty right now for our

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Speaker 1: free audience. For the people who watch the show free

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Speaker 1: or who listen right now on Spotify, you are just

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Speaker 1: as valuable to us. The way that you can help

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Speaker 1: us if you cannot afford it is to like the show,

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Speaker 1: to subscribe, to hit the subscribe button on YouTube, subscribe

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Speaker 1: or follow on Spotify and or Apple. And more importantly,

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Speaker 1: if you're a podcast listener, take an episode that you

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Speaker 1: really like and share it with a friend and or

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Speaker 1: a family. That is the single best and most important

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Speaker 1: way as a free person that you could be able

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Speaker 1: to help us out as a show. It's word of mouth. No,

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Speaker 1: not one dollar of advertising has ever been spent on

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Speaker 1: this show, which is remarkable, honestly, and you look back

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Speaker 1: at our future coming up on four years here. To

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Speaker 1: be able to grow to almost one point four million subscribers,

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Speaker 1: it's incredible, to hundreds of thousands of downloads and things

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Speaker 1: that we see on the podcast platform. It is because

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Speaker 1: of all the people who do also engage for a

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Speaker 1: free basis, And if that's all you can do for us,

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Speaker 1: it's totally fine. Please just make sure that you can

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Speaker 1: help us out by sharing the show.

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Speaker 2: Yep, So thank you guys so much for your support.

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Speaker 2: Onward and upward. Excited about what is to come for

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Speaker 2: the year for breaking points, and I really enjoy that Friday.

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Speaker 3: Shows like the Friday Show.

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Speaker 1: I like it too, It's fun.

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Speaker 2: It would be with the pace of news, the Monday

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Speaker 2: show would be just unmanageable.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it would just pretty late, and it would be edited.

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Speaker 1: And yeah, I mean originally.

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Speaker 3: It's a Monday.

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Speaker 2: All the stuff that happened on Friday, it's like old

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Speaker 2: news because thirty five other major things.

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Speaker 1: Have happened, So it is inconceivable. And mean when we launched,

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Speaker 1: you know, just penciling budget and all of that, we

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Speaker 1: were looking at three days and we're like, oh, maybe

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Speaker 1: we can make this work. And so to be in

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Speaker 1: a position where we have you know, not just us,

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Speaker 1: it's not even just about the four people you guys

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Speaker 1: see in front of the camera. There's a whole team

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Speaker 1: of people in the room back over there making sure

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Speaker 1: this stuff gets cranked out on you know, it's edited.

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Speaker 1: We have entire novel processes that we've actually developed. You know,

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Speaker 1: I've spoken with many creators and they are blown away

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Speaker 1: by our timeline and the team that we have assembled

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Speaker 1: that is able to export a show, deliver it across

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Speaker 1: multiple different platforms, and do all of these things. I

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Speaker 1: mean they're working on a weekly editing basis. Our guys

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Speaker 1: can turn it around in sometimes twenty two minutes. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: very often they're editing things on the fly. It's incredible.

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Speaker 1: And again it's literally all because of the people who

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Speaker 1: sign up. So thank you they really is a thank

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Speaker 1: you to enable us to be able.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, when the show goes down late, it's not their fault.

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Speaker 3: It is our fault.

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Speaker 1: No, it is right much usually the problem, I promise you. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: for the thousands of dollars where we have spent on

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Speaker 1: equipment and all these other things, state of the art

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Speaker 1: stuff that is running back there, and anything late is

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Speaker 1: because of our because of us. It is absolutely not

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Speaker 1: because of them.

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Speaker 2: All right, So let me run quickly through the show

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Speaker 2: bar here. We had Bkelly at the White House yesterday,

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Speaker 2: Trump announcing that he wants to send US citizens now

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Speaker 2: to Bekelly's torture Dungeons. So we'll talk about that. Trump

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Speaker 2: approval rating is down. We've got the latest numbers. He

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Speaker 2: has announced he maybe backing off some of the auto terrifts.

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Speaker 2: At the same time, we're getting new retaligation from China.

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Speaker 2: They've halted all Boeing orders. Dave Smith is going to

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Speaker 2: join us. Don't know if you guys checked out any

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Speaker 2: of his debate with Douglas Murray on Joe Rogan's podcast.

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Speaker 2: Going to get his reaction to that and some other

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Speaker 2: things as well, especially some of the crackdown on any

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Speaker 2: dissent visa. The israel I am taking a look at

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Speaker 2: Trump's tariff war as class war.

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Speaker 3: Sager, what should I say about your model?

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Speaker 1: I just say it's a surprise. It's a surprise for

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Speaker 1: everybody who's there just book recommendations. That's on joke, caamjo.

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Speaker 1: There's something there that I'll you can find out if

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Speaker 1: you become a premium subscriber.

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Speaker 2: You will find out eventually whether you're a premium subscriber

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Speaker 2: or not. But previous subscribers in that AMA Live will

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Speaker 2: give you the sneak peek. Okay, let's go ahead and

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Speaker 2: get to the Oval Office. Yesterday, President of al Salvador

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Speaker 2: Naiba Kelly was in town. Obviously, this was very significant

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Speaker 2: for a number of reasons. This administration has sent somewhere

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Speaker 2: around at this point, about two hundred and fifty migrants

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Speaker 2: into that prison. We now know that approximately ninety percent

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Speaker 2: of them, in spite of being told that they were

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Speaker 2: gang members, and the worst of the worst, ninety percent

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Speaker 2: have no criminal record. We have learned some of the

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Speaker 2: details of those individuals, and one of those individuals, in particular,

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Speaker 2: Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the administration admitted that they sent him

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Speaker 2: there in air. The Supreme Court then came in and said,

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Speaker 2: you got to try to get this guy back. You

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Speaker 2: have to facilitate his release. They are just completely stonewalling.

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Speaker 2: They're pretending like the Supreme Court actually sided with them

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Speaker 2: and said they don't have to do anything. So a

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Speaker 2: lot of questions about what the response from Bkelly would be,

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Speaker 2: how Trump would interact with him, et cetera. But before

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Speaker 2: any of that occurred, the two of them, Trump and

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Speaker 2: Bkelly were actually caught on a hot mic with Trump,

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Speaker 2: and you have to listen carefully, but Trump telling Bukelly

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Speaker 2: that next he wants to send to his prisons the

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Speaker 2: quote unquote homegrowns and that bikelly may.

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Speaker 3: Need to build five more of those.

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Speaker 2: Facilities to house the US citizens that Trump now wants

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Speaker 2: to send to that notorious Seacott facility. Let's take a

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Speaker 2: listen to how that went down.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, they stood growing next the home runs.

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Speaker 4: You get a book about five more places.

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Speaker 3: Yeah that's great, all right, it's not big enough. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: come on, And it wasn't only in this hot mic moment.

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Speaker 3: Apparently the El Salvador press was there, but the whole

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Speaker 3: pool wasn't it.

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Speaker 2: I don't know where that stream came from, but they

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Speaker 2: were streaming that live and obviously we are.

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Speaker 1: It was the El Salvadoran government. It wasn't even in

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Speaker 1: Salvador in media. Now, why exactly? Elso, if we're in

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Speaker 1: government is allowed to live stream straight from the Oval Office,

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Speaker 1: that's beyond me. That's probably the tertiary amount of concerns

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Speaker 1: as well as mister outfit that was happening. You're you're

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Speaker 1: absolutely right. There were a number of comments made there

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Speaker 1: by President Trump in the Oval Office very defiant on

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Speaker 1: the Upbrego Garcia case, as well as proposing on multiple

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Speaker 1: occasions sending US citizens to this prison let's take a listen.

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Speaker 2: And sup you said that if the Supreme Court said

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Speaker 2: someone needed to be returned, that you would abide by that.

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Speaker 2: You said that on Air Force one just a few

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Speaker 2: days ago, and they said that it must be facilitating.

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Speaker 2: And you just say, isn't it wonderful that we're keeping

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Speaker 2: criminals out of our country?

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Speaker 1: Why can't you just say that? Why do you go

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Speaker 1: over and over and that's why nobody watches you anymore?

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Speaker 1: You know you have no credibility.

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Speaker 4: Please go ahead, promise you if he was your neighbor,

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Speaker 4: you wouldn't move right away, So you don't plan the

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Speaker 4: Supreme Court.

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Speaker 3: In the Supreme Court, siave, was it nine to nothing?

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Speaker 4: Yes, there's a ninety zero in our favor. In our

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Speaker 4: favor against the district court ruling saying that no district

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Speaker 4: court has the power to compel the foreign policy function

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Speaker 4: of the United States. As Pam said, the ruling solely

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Speaker 4: stated that if this individual at El salvad Or sole

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Speaker 4: discretion was set back to our country, that we could

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Speaker 4: deport him a second time.

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Speaker 5: How can I model the terrorists into the United States.

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Speaker 3: I don't have the power to return him to the

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Speaker 3: United States.

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Speaker 5: So you can release the inside. Yeah, but I'm not

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Speaker 5: releasing I mean, we're not very fond of releasing terrorists

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Speaker 5: into our country.

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Speaker 3: We just turned the murder capital of the world to

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Speaker 3: the safest country of the Western Hemisphere.

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Speaker 1: And you want us to go back into the releasing

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Speaker 1: criminals so we can go back to being the murdered

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Speaker 1: capital of the world.

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Speaker 3: Now that's that's not going to be.

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Speaker 4: Well, they'd love to have a criminal you know.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I mean, there's a fascination.

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Speaker 4: They would love it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they're great facilities, very strong facilities, and.

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Speaker 6: They don't play games.

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Speaker 1: I'd like to go step further.

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Speaker 4: I mean, I say, I said it to Pam.

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Speaker 2: I don't know what the laws are. We always have

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Speaker 2: to obey the laws, but we also have homegrown criminals

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Speaker 2: that push people into subways.

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Speaker 3: I'd like to include them in the group of people

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Speaker 3: to get them out of the country.

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Speaker 1: So you can see they're not only doubling down. But

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Speaker 1: the most significant comment made from bu Kelly was saying, quote,

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Speaker 1: I don't what did he say. I don't have the

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Speaker 1: power to bring back a Breago Garcia. This is where

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Speaker 1: it is obviously preposterous. Bu Kelly is getting paid six

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Speaker 1: million dollars from the United States government. Furthermore, he has literal,

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Speaker 1: unilatal authority over who goes in and out of Seacotts,

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Speaker 1: so he actually could release him if he could. And

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Speaker 1: this is one where the government and Stephen Miller is

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Speaker 1: saying there, oh, it was. I mean, he is correct

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Speaker 1: in that it's nine to oh by saying it is

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Speaker 1: nine oh in not ordering it in the same way

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Speaker 1: the district judge said, you have to go get him back,

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Speaker 1: but it was very clear about the facilitation of return

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Speaker 1: and what was it turned it over to the district court,

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Speaker 1: where there continues to be adjudication over specifically the lengths

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Speaker 1: and the process through which the United States must return

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Speaker 1: our Brego Garcia. It is clear cut, it is beyond obvious.

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Speaker 1: You know, the state, the state admitted in its court

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Speaker 1: filing a Brago Garcia should not have been sent to

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Speaker 1: El Salvador, period, end of story. We can talk all

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Speaker 1: day long about the hold on the deportation order, et cetera,

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Speaker 1: but it is clear as day he had to hold

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Speaker 1: for deportation. He was sent there by their own admission.

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Speaker 1: It was a quote unquote mistake. The Stephen Miller has

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Speaker 1: now claimed that it was an actual mistake to admit

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Speaker 1: that it was a mistake, and that is not true.

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Speaker 1: That fired solicitor general who said that in court filing.

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Speaker 1: Apparently I was actually reading from a legal expert that

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Speaker 1: he has a decent enough case for defamation actually against

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Speaker 1: the government because they're claiming that he basically lied in

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Speaker 1: a court filing.

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Speaker 2: Johnathan Turley, who is a Republican Trump sympathetic Fox News

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Speaker 2: kind of a guy, who was like, he's got a

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Speaker 2: case for defamation. Yeah, the dude that they fired because

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Speaker 2: he admitted in court that this was a mistake, which

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Speaker 2: also wasn't just admitted in court. It also, Asager said,

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Speaker 2: was part of this court filing. He's been there for

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Speaker 2: fifteen years. He served in the same or similar role

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Speaker 2: under the first Trump administration.

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Speaker 3: You know, he has been a.

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Speaker 2: Reliable advocate for whatever the government's position has been. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: Stephen Miller called him a saboteur and a democrat if

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Speaker 2: he was in there intentionally trying to blow up this case.

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Speaker 2: I just want to read for everybody because what Stephen

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Speaker 2: Miller is portraying here and were publicans are trying to

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Speaker 2: portray the Supreme Court decision as is just total and

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Speaker 2: complete garbage. Let me read to you the specific language

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Speaker 2: of this order that came down from the Supreme Court.

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Speaker 2: They say the rest of the District Court's order remains

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Speaker 2: in effect, but requires clarification. That's what they're holding their

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Speaker 2: whole thing on, is this line that requires clarification. The

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Speaker 2: order properly requires the government to facilitate Abario Garcia is

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Speaker 2: released from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that

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Speaker 2: his case is handled as it would have been had

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Speaker 2: he not been improperly sent to El Salvador. The intended

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Speaker 2: scope of the term effectuate in the District's court order

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Speaker 2: is however, unclear and may exceed the District Court's authority.

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Speaker 2: The District Court should clarify its directive with due regard

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Speaker 2: for the deference owed to the Executive branch in the

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Speaker 2: conduct of foreign affairs. So they didn't even say don't

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Speaker 2: effectuate or that was wrong, and they're saying we want

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Speaker 2: some clarification from the District Court here, But they said

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Speaker 2: incredibly clearly that they need the government needs to facilitate

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Speaker 2: the release, and they also tell the government that it

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Speaker 2: needs to be prepared to share what it can concerning

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Speaker 2: the steps it has taken and the prospect of further steps.

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Speaker 2: The government has completely stonewalled here. They're lying about what

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Speaker 2: the order actually said, and just think about it, like

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Speaker 2: taking the legalies out of it from.

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Speaker 3: A human perspective. If you fuck up, you try to

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Speaker 3: fix it.

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Speaker 2: This is a fuck up of massive life altered proportions.

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Speaker 2: We have no idea at this point what the condition

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Speaker 2: of this man is. He's been sent into this prison

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Speaker 2: known for human rights abuses, for withholding food.

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Speaker 3: We know that an extraordinary number.

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Speaker 2: Of detainees there have actually died while they're in custody.

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Speaker 2: This is a horrible place to be that he has

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Speaker 2: been wrongly sent to, and not just him, by the

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Speaker 2: way of the two hundred and thirty original immigrants who

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Speaker 2: were sent there, as I mentioned, ninety percent no criminal record,

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Speaker 2: five had felony arrest records.

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Speaker 3: Five and we're told these were the worst of the worst.

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Speaker 2: So on top of all of that, what we've been

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Speaker 2: warning about is, hey, if you can throw these people

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Speaker 2: into this dungeon for life with no due process. This

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Speaker 2: isn't just about what they can do to immigrants. This

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Speaker 2: is about what they can do to anyone.

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Speaker 3: This is about.

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Speaker 2: All of our rights. What could have kept them? Since

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Speaker 2: their position is once they're a Alsalvador, it's over, it's gone.

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Speaker 2: We can't do anything. In Bekelly's position is I can't

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Speaker 2: do anything either. What is to keep them from sending

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Speaker 2: anyone that they want? And as long as they get

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Speaker 2: the plane in the air before the court can come

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Speaker 2: in and say you can't do that, then they can

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Speaker 2: do whatever they want to people. And so when you

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Speaker 2: have Trump here, not only on the hot mic, and

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Speaker 2: he had previously said, hey, maybe I'll send American citizens

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Speaker 2: there on the hot mic, telling Bakelly, next up is

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Speaker 2: the homegrowns. You need to build more facilities, and then

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Speaker 2: confirmed in the questioning and he said he made this

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Speaker 2: comment that I wanted to get your reaction to, in

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Speaker 2: particular Soger. He said specifically in response to a reporter

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Speaker 2: asking if he would deport US citizens.

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Speaker 3: Quote what you think they're a special category?

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Speaker 1: Yes? Right, yeah, I mean thought right? What thoughts? I mean?

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Speaker 1: It's just outrageous. And I think what people need to

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Speaker 1: understand is that the step by step that the government

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Speaker 1: has taken is one that has revealed itself over the

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Speaker 1: last several months. I keep resuscitating an old Vietnam term

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Speaker 1: credibility gap, and the credibility gap is, like you said,

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Speaker 1: they said that it was the worst of the worst.

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Speaker 1: Now we know categorically now that that is just simply

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Speaker 1: not true considering the overall criminal record. They also said

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Speaker 1: that they were using a tattoo or whatever to identify,

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Speaker 1: which actually sounds you know, it rings true to a

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Speaker 1: lot of people. That's very often the gangs use tattoos

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Speaker 1: to do affiliation. Go look at any prison system in

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Speaker 1: the United States. It's one of the number one ways

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Speaker 1: that you do gang classification. Right. So but again, now

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Speaker 1: we have continued to see there's huge holes in the story,

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Speaker 1: and there's been a number of these people of a

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Speaker 1: gay barber for example, being one of them, where it

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Speaker 1: is just like blatantly obvious that at the very least,

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Speaker 1: like what they're saying is completely untrue, if not outright false.

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Speaker 1: Then you take it a step further. For deportation, initially

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Speaker 1: it was about illegal aliens present in the United States

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Speaker 1: or people who had applied for asylum. So, okay, you

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Speaker 1: know this is one where you can't necessarily or it

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Speaker 1: was still in my opinion, still a jump from there.

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Speaker 1: To people who are here legally and or who are

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Speaker 1: here US citizens. But the jump now, and I have

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Speaker 1: spoken with multiple legal experts, is that this one in

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Speaker 1: particular is the one that most definitively applies to United

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Speaker 1: States citizens because the custody, the custody, the custody at

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Speaker 1: question is specifically about this else that the government position

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Speaker 1: is taking is that once they are in El Salvador

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Speaker 1: in custody, there is nothing that you can do for

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Speaker 1: them that actually does not have any legal limitation. Alien

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Speaker 1: Enemies Act, believe it or not, actually does whenever it

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Speaker 1: comes to a US citizen. There are multiple other you know,

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Speaker 1: you've even seen, for example, many of these Palestinian proactivist

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Speaker 1: students who are getting or trying to get deported, they're

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Speaker 1: still going through a due process like you know, deportation order.

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Speaker 1: Alien Enemies Act was definitely over here. But the specific

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Speaker 1: question here at hand legally is one that has no

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Speaker 1: limiting principle whatsoever. And actually, I would point to Ed Whalen,

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Speaker 1: this is very important for people to see a three

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Speaker 1: police Let me just Ed Ed, and I need to

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Speaker 1: contextualize that Ed is one of the most conservative lawyers

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Speaker 1: and legal minds here in Washington. Ed is a guy

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Speaker 1: who went to bat harder than anyone I know for

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Speaker 1: Brett Kavanaugh. That's I'm trying to contextualize who this person is.

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Speaker 1: I really ideological ground. Unless you're unless you're in the

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Speaker 1: mold in the DC world, you don't quite understand how

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Speaker 1: important it is for Ed to speak out on something

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Speaker 1: like this. So okay, with all that on the on

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Speaker 1: the table, quote outrageous, misterpresentation of the Supreme Court ruling.

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Speaker 1: The unanimous Court rule that a district Court order properly

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Speaker 1: requires the government to facilitate Upbrego Garcia's release from custody

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Speaker 1: in Nail Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled,

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Speaker 1: and it would have been had he not been improperly

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Speaker 1: sent to l Salvador. Yes. The Court also stated that

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Speaker 1: the intended scope of the term effectuate in the district

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Speaker 1: Court's order is, however, unclear and may exceed the district

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Speaker 1: court authority, and it told the district courts to clarify

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Speaker 1: its directive with due regard for the deference owed to

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Speaker 1: Executive branch and the conduct of foreign affairs. But due

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Speaker 1: regard does not mean the district Court couldn't give any

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Speaker 1: teeth to effectuate. In any event, the district court dropped

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Speaker 1: effectuate from its revised order, so this is all irrelevant.

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Speaker 1: The duty to facilitate continues. And that's what the government

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Speaker 1: is saying, is that their only duty to facilitate is

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Speaker 1: that if Bucell were to release Abrego Garcia from the

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Speaker 1: what was it from prison, that they would fly him

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Speaker 1: back to the United States, proceed with a due deportation

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Speaker 1: through a due process proceeding, and then he would be

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Speaker 1: sent back to l Salvador. But at the very least

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Speaker 1: like that is still one which fits within the bounds

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Speaker 1: of the law. And that is not what we see

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Speaker 1: right now from the Trump administration. And they have stretched it,

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Speaker 1: you know, ten times farther than any before. And in fact,

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Speaker 1: it does appear that they're trying to pick fights with

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Speaker 1: the courts over their immigration nationality authority specifically, but in

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Speaker 1: this particular case, as I want to come back to,

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Speaker 1: the truth is is that everything they have said on

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Speaker 1: this process and you know, look, this requires me a

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Speaker 1: help with from people like me. I never, in my

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Speaker 1: wildest dreams imagined that you would just simply snatch people

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Speaker 1: up who had nothing to do with I mean, for example,

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Speaker 1: we have eight to ten million gang members, right, sorry,

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Speaker 1: eight to ten million illegal immigrants. Is it really implausible

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Speaker 1: there are two hundred, you know, gang members President of

437
00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:30,400
Speaker 1: the United States, I honestly don't think so. I am

438
00:20:30,560 --> 00:20:34,480
Speaker 1: relatively familiar with gang proceedings and others in the criminal

439
00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:37,600
Speaker 1: justice system, their gang enhancements and others at state by

440
00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:40,919
Speaker 1: state level. This is something that cops do every day.

441
00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:44,600
Speaker 1: Would it really have entered that wildest dream to think

442
00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:47,400
Speaker 1: that you would take somebody and look at their administrative

443
00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:50,960
Speaker 1: paperwork and then mistakenly deport that individual and then claim,

444
00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:55,080
Speaker 1: you know, without any without really without even walking back

445
00:20:55,240 --> 00:20:57,800
Speaker 1: any claims around this, to say that this is somebody

446
00:20:57,920 --> 00:21:00,119
Speaker 1: to be deported to tell someone it's also similarly, it's

447
00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:03,080
Speaker 1: very different than to go through a deportation proceeding for

448
00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:06,199
Speaker 1: being sent back to El Salvador than it is to

449
00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:10,760
Speaker 1: facilitate the actual entry into this prison as a behest

450
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:13,960
Speaker 1: of the United States government. That direction also matters. So

451
00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:17,720
Speaker 1: if Abrago Garcia went through the normal deportation process and

452
00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:19,879
Speaker 1: was sent to Al Salvador and they decided to put

453
00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:22,600
Speaker 1: him in prison, okay, that's a different thing. It fundamentally

454
00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:25,040
Speaker 1: is because that's not something that was facilitated, paid for,

455
00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:27,560
Speaker 1: and done at the behest of the United States government

456
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:30,879
Speaker 1: in this particular case, that is absolutely not what has happened.

457
00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:32,760
Speaker 1: And I think it is very clear that the government

458
00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:35,199
Speaker 1: is trying to stretch it now to this point and

459
00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:38,879
Speaker 1: at this it is a breaking point name of the show.

460
00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:41,560
Speaker 1: This is one where you must stand up against what

461
00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:44,879
Speaker 1: the current government is doing, specifically because it does apply

462
00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:47,919
Speaker 1: to United States citizens. There is not a single limiting

463
00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:51,040
Speaker 1: principle that can be held here. And it's not about

464
00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:55,399
Speaker 1: Alien Enemies Act, It's not even really about illegal versus legal.

465
00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:58,920
Speaker 1: There is nothing under the current logic that would stop

466
00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:02,440
Speaker 1: them from doing this to any United States citizen who

467
00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:05,000
Speaker 1: would mistakenly be deported. And if we are then to

468
00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:09,080
Speaker 1: assume and now look at the obvious credibility gap within

469
00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:13,000
Speaker 1: the White House, at their shoddy procedures at not even shoddy,

470
00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 1: I mean just outright fake. Basically at this point the

471
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:19,400
Speaker 1: MS thirteen East Coast gang leader and thing that we saw,

472
00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:22,639
Speaker 1: no reasonable individual, in my opinion, could have confidence in

473
00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:26,000
Speaker 1: the current Department Homeland Security to be able to fundamentally

474
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:28,359
Speaker 1: distinguish and make sure that there is enough of a

475
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 1: coult process that is being put in place there to

476
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:34,600
Speaker 1: ensure that no United States sitting would ever be mistakenly

477
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:38,280
Speaker 1: deported under this current regime, especially in the way that

478
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:40,719
Speaker 1: it has all been implemented at this time. So we

479
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:43,720
Speaker 1: can look step by step at all the processes easily

480
00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 1: in hindsight and say this was not true, this was

481
00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:47,920
Speaker 1: not true, this was not true, this is being handled differently,

482
00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:50,199
Speaker 1: this is now here. And the limiting principle, which is

483
00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:52,760
Speaker 1: like an often thing you should look like, especially with

484
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:55,520
Speaker 1: legal and others. As I said, I've spoken with many,

485
00:22:55,520 --> 00:22:57,920
Speaker 1: many legal minds, and the only thing stopping them is

486
00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:00,160
Speaker 1: their own behest of not being able to do something.

487
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 1: And that's just simply not good enough in my opinion,

488
00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:05,840
Speaker 1: you know, I mean, what they're really asking for is trust,

489
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:08,400
Speaker 1: and I just don't think that any reasonable person who

490
00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:10,920
Speaker 1: is now looking at this can have any trust whatsoever

491
00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:12,879
Speaker 1: in the procedure that they put place or any of

492
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:15,160
Speaker 1: the statements that they have forward on MS thirteen trend

493
00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:18,200
Speaker 1: de Agua, especially with the arrests of that so called

494
00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 1: East Coast gang leader and then many of the arrests

495
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:23,200
Speaker 1: that have been made now so far. So anyway, that's

496
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:25,959
Speaker 1: my long winded way of just saying I think this

497
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:28,200
Speaker 1: is incredibly dangerous, and I do think that I've seen

498
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:31,400
Speaker 1: fire and numerous or other organizations stand up. I've seen

499
00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:34,640
Speaker 1: ed Whalen and others as well, and so that's also

500
00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 1: I think that allows for calibration. And I understand a

501
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:39,360
Speaker 1: lot of MAGA is in a place where they don't

502
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:41,520
Speaker 1: want to take you know, they find it annoying that

503
00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:43,399
Speaker 1: they call them a Maryland. It's like, okay, fine, we

504
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:46,760
Speaker 1: can talk later about illegal and illegal status, because it's

505
00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:49,040
Speaker 1: actually not about that right now now, And that's the

506
00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:50,960
Speaker 1: kind of the point I want to get across. This

507
00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:54,280
Speaker 1: is not about illegal immigration. This specific case is not

508
00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 1: about illegal immigration, period. It really is about courts, and

509
00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:01,440
Speaker 1: it is also about principles which would course apply to anybody.

510
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 1: And under that current regime, then no, without any limiting

511
00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:07,200
Speaker 1: power on the government, that there is nothing stopping from

512
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:10,120
Speaker 1: a US citizen. It's clear now that Donald Trump, if

513
00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:11,840
Speaker 1: he says it, you know, we have to take him

514
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:14,359
Speaker 1: seriously at this point as well. It is now clear

515
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:16,639
Speaker 1: also that many of the guardrails which you know, frankly

516
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:19,200
Speaker 1: I thought would be there, I've obviously fallen apart or

517
00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:21,159
Speaker 1: not even fallen apart. It's just that there are willing

518
00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:25,240
Speaker 1: participants and they view everything as some sort of like

519
00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:28,120
Speaker 1: left right media game, almost like you and I debating

520
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 1: here on this show. And it's like with the tariffs,

521
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 1: it's like with signal Gate, it's like with all of

522
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:34,680
Speaker 1: these other things. It's like, No, this is about real

523
00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:36,560
Speaker 1: people's life, like you, people are in the government. This

524
00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:39,119
Speaker 1: is not a CNN panel where we're trying to joust

525
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,119
Speaker 1: here about who's right and who's wrong.

526
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:47,760
Speaker 2: These people, they want them to stay in this torture

527
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:49,040
Speaker 2: dungeon for life.

528
00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:51,480
Speaker 3: People who did nothing wrong.

529
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:54,040
Speaker 2: Nothing, I mean, many of these individuals, the ones that

530
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:56,600
Speaker 2: the media has been able to track down, they went

531
00:24:56,640 --> 00:25:00,359
Speaker 2: through the process, like they showed, they got their ap point.

532
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:02,639
Speaker 2: They're going through the asylum process. Now we can have

533
00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 2: a lot of conversations about that asylum process. They did

534
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:08,879
Speaker 2: nothing wrong. They were following the process as it was

535
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 2: set out. Ninety percent no criminal record, sentenced to a

536
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:18,960
Speaker 2: life of torture and misery. And the administration knows that,

537
00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:22,679
Speaker 2: they know that, they're not fools, they know what they've done.

538
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:23,720
Speaker 3: It's evil.

539
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:27,639
Speaker 2: I mean, there's just no other word to sending people

540
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 2: who are innocent, who have committed no crime, done nothing wrong,

541
00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 2: to rot in a prison cell known for torture and

542
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:39,480
Speaker 2: human rights abuse for life. That's what we're talking about here.

543
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:41,840
Speaker 2: And you mentioned, you know, a breaking point yesterday. I

544
00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:45,600
Speaker 2: had the same reaction of you know, obviously I was

545
00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:48,200
Speaker 2: concerned about this administration coming in. I've been deeply concerned

546
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 2: about the actions that have been taken. I you know,

547
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:54,399
Speaker 2: when this initially occurred, I was really deeply concerned about

548
00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:57,880
Speaker 2: where not only that action, but where would ultimately lead.

549
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 2: But now you have them in open defiance of the

550
00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:03,719
Speaker 2: Supreme Court, I mean, just lying about what the Supreme

551
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:08,879
Speaker 2: Court even said. You have them committing to keep so

552
00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:11,240
Speaker 2: when they admitted they messed up by sending down to

553
00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:14,960
Speaker 2: this prison, they are dead set on keeping that man

554
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 2: in that prison for his entire life, however long that lasts.

555
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:24,920
Speaker 2: And now on camera multiple times, Trump is out there.

556
00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:26,960
Speaker 3: Next up is American citizens.

557
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 2: That is a dramatic escalation of authoritarianism. And I'm glad

558
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:35,120
Speaker 2: to see you know yourself, I'm glad to see others.

559
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:37,040
Speaker 2: I'm glad to see Ied Whalen. But I have to say,

560
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 2: not one Republican politician, not.

561
00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:42,360
Speaker 1: One yeah, they can't.

562
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:44,639
Speaker 3: Not a Ran Paul, not a Thomas Massy.

563
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 1: Yes they can, well, yes they can't.

564
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 2: Can but we've seen, i mean on certain issues they

565
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:53,880
Speaker 2: have broken with this president occasionally and to just completely

566
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 2: like these are people who hold them so oh, here's

567
00:26:56,080 --> 00:27:00,680
Speaker 2: the constitution, and who've held themselves down as these constitutional conservatives.

568
00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:04,879
Speaker 2: The president of the United States plans to completely deny

569
00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:08,240
Speaker 2: due process to US citizens and throw them in a

570
00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:12,359
Speaker 2: foreign prison. And not one person wants to speak out

571
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:14,679
Speaker 2: about that. That to me is astonishing. And let me

572
00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:17,760
Speaker 2: go ahead and put up on the screen. Let's go

573
00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:20,640
Speaker 2: to these last pieces, this most recent case that we're

574
00:27:20,880 --> 00:27:23,520
Speaker 2: learning about, because the more we're learning about these individuals,

575
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:27,000
Speaker 2: the more you can see like they just anyone they

576
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:27,560
Speaker 2: could grab.

577
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 3: Who is Venezuelan they grabbed? Put up.

578
00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:33,440
Speaker 2: I believe it's a six guys, This nineteen year old

579
00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:38,560
Speaker 2: migrant from Venezuela who had come with his dad. This

580
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 2: is a photo of him with his father. Put the

581
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 2: next piece up on the screen. This was by this

582
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:47,879
Speaker 2: news outlet, it's called Documented. So they were living in

583
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 2: New York. This is the kind of quintessential story. They

584
00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:54,400
Speaker 2: got their they came across the border. They got put

585
00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:57,720
Speaker 2: on a bus to the infamous Roosevelt Hotel in New York.

586
00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 2: They're working at actually unpacking Timu packages by the airport.

587
00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:05,040
Speaker 1: There's a lot going on.

588
00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:08,120
Speaker 2: And so his son is coming back to the apartment

589
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:10,880
Speaker 2: after running some errands and just steps from his home,

590
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:13,480
Speaker 2: ICE agents stop him. They grab him and two other

591
00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 2: boys right at the entrance of our building. This is

592
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:18,639
Speaker 2: his father, one said. One of the ICE agents said, no,

593
00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:21,760
Speaker 2: he's not the one, like they were looking for someone else.

594
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:25,560
Speaker 2: But the other said, take him anyway. This one no

595
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 2: criminal record, did not even have a tattoo, you know,

596
00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:32,920
Speaker 2: not that that's any sort of justification, but they knew this,

597
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 2: this isn't the right guy, and they snatched him up anyways,

598
00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:38,479
Speaker 2: And now he is his father's beside himself, and he

599
00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:42,280
Speaker 2: is in this prison potentially for life or until you know,

600
00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 2: another administration decides they're going to do something.

601
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:47,400
Speaker 3: In the game that Trump and Bkelly are playing here, Trump.

602
00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:49,479
Speaker 2: Is saying, oh, I couldn't possibly, but I don't have

603
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:51,720
Speaker 2: the power over what's going on in El Salvador, and

604
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:53,320
Speaker 2: but Kelly say, oh, I don't have the power to

605
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 2: get him out of prison. Like both of you do,

606
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:58,840
Speaker 2: you both do you don't think that Trump has power?

607
00:28:59,080 --> 00:28:59,960
Speaker 3: It's El Salvador.

608
00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:04,040
Speaker 2: But Kelly has decided to like completely align himself with Trump.

609
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:06,160
Speaker 2: Yesterday he tweeted out after he left, oh my god,

610
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:10,240
Speaker 2: I miss you already called President she or something like that.

611
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:12,000
Speaker 3: We are paying them.

612
00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 2: We have a contract, six million dollar contract with them

613
00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 2: to keep these people in this prison. If Trump said

614
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:21,000
Speaker 2: yesterday to the Kelly, hey, we need we messed up.

615
00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 3: We need to get that guy back, it would be done.

616
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:23,560
Speaker 3: It would be over.

617
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:27,200
Speaker 2: But Kelly is running on salved Or under state of exception.

618
00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 2: He can do whatever he wants.

619
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:30,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, true is literally martial law.

620
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 2: And by the way, there were some of the people

621
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:37,080
Speaker 2: that we had tried to deport to this prison, several

622
00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 2: women that were included that though they were like, no,

623
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:41,000
Speaker 2: we're not taking women that they sent back, so they

624
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 2: clearly have the power to send some people back.

625
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:45,480
Speaker 1: They also apparently rejected people who were also from other

626
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:47,680
Speaker 1: Central American countries to that's.

627
00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:49,400
Speaker 3: Great, because they were worried about.

628
00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:51,320
Speaker 1: The Central American politics.

629
00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, so you're more worried about that than the United

630
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:56,160
Speaker 2: States of America. I mean, it's just they And to

631
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:58,840
Speaker 2: your point about the guardrails. You know the Supreme Court

632
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:01,160
Speaker 2: did mess up here, because you have to know at

633
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 2: this point, I think John Robbers trying to play this

634
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:04,800
Speaker 2: game and be too cute of let me give them

635
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:06,600
Speaker 2: a little bit, let me give them some wins, let

636
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:09,160
Speaker 2: me give them something that they get. No, if you

637
00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 2: don't tell them no, you cannot do. You must get

638
00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:15,440
Speaker 2: him back. If you give them even the little tiniest

639
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:18,600
Speaker 2: bit of anything, they will do exactly what they did here.

640
00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:19,920
Speaker 3: Lie about what.

641
00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:24,080
Speaker 2: You said, refuse to do anything whatsoever. And this has

642
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:27,280
Speaker 2: now been kicked back to the district court. They're supposed

643
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:30,520
Speaker 2: to be providing updates every day. They've just basically refused

644
00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:32,560
Speaker 2: to do that, certainly in the way that the court

645
00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:35,280
Speaker 2: has ordered them to do. And they are certainly inching

646
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:39,840
Speaker 2: up to that district court judge holding them in contempt.

647
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 2: I fully expect that to go back to the Supreme Court.

648
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:45,360
Speaker 2: So there are still things working their way through the

649
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:47,600
Speaker 2: judicial process. But at this point you have to say

650
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:51,959
Speaker 2: that they are openly defined certainly the spirit of the

651
00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:55,880
Speaker 2: court order. They are have laid down a marker that

652
00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 2: if they can get the plane in the air, then

653
00:30:57,640 --> 00:30:59,640
Speaker 2: they can do nothing. Then you know, as long as

654
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:02,800
Speaker 2: they are quick enough, then they can deny people's rights.

655
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:06,480
Speaker 2: They can act completely extra constitutionally, do whatever they want,

656
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 2: and even when they get caught and admit a complete

657
00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:13,640
Speaker 2: screw up, they still don't care. They think that these

658
00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 2: people should be there for life. It is absolutely outrageous.

659
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 1: That's why I think that the way that it was

660
00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:20,880
Speaker 1: set out is very important to see and see exactly

661
00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 1: like you said, at the current thing, there is no

662
00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:27,240
Speaker 1: simple limiting principle on the government's action, and that is

663
00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:31,320
Speaker 1: genuinely extraordinary. Like we can have conceptual debates about planes

664
00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:34,440
Speaker 1: and judges and being able to turn things around about

665
00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:37,239
Speaker 1: gang members. Listen, I happily debate anybody all day long

666
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:38,720
Speaker 1: as whether any of these people even should have been

667
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 1: in the United States or we're abusing the process. But

668
00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:46,360
Speaker 1: it's one of those where that is actually not what

669
00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:49,160
Speaker 1: is on the table right now. Right Like if we

670
00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:53,240
Speaker 1: let's think about this just conceptually, if the government had

671
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:58,440
Speaker 1: arrested Obrego Garcia and gone through the standard deportation process,

672
00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:01,520
Speaker 1: of which there was a very good so he's getting deported, period,

673
00:32:02,240 --> 00:32:05,000
Speaker 1: He's gone, this nineteen year old, and then no one

674
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:07,440
Speaker 1: would even know his name and if then the n Salvadorians,

675
00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:09,360
Speaker 1: if they want to throw him in prison, that's their business.

676
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:11,920
Speaker 1: This nineteen year old, by their own admission, this guy

677
00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:14,760
Speaker 1: came here because he didn't have enough money in Venezuela.

678
00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 1: He's not even pretending that he was fleeing gang violence

679
00:32:17,520 --> 00:32:19,800
Speaker 1: or whatever. Same thing. You don't even have a claim

680
00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 1: of asylum. You're going home under a standard deportation process, Chris.

681
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:26,440
Speaker 1: So I'll go to bat on that any day of

682
00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:30,680
Speaker 1: the week. That's not the same thing as saying temporary

683
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:35,040
Speaker 1: deportation order or temporary deportation hold, then coming around and

684
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 1: being like, oh, we're going to send him there, and

685
00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:37,840
Speaker 1: then we actually we're not going to get back because

686
00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 1: there's nothing we can do about it. And this is

687
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:42,360
Speaker 1: what I want the MAGA folks to really understand, because

688
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:44,760
Speaker 1: they are conflating the two. They're saying, oh, I break over,

689
00:32:44,840 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 1: and I'm like, listen, I'm with you, all right. You know,

690
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:48,640
Speaker 1: why is the guy who's been here illegally since twenty

691
00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:51,760
Speaker 1: eleven doesn't claim asylum till twenty nineteen. Should he really

692
00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:52,600
Speaker 1: be in the United States?

693
00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:52,880
Speaker 2: No?

694
00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:55,320
Speaker 1: Obviously, for me, I think a lot of people agree

695
00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 1: with that sentiment. They voted for that. Now, this, this

696
00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:01,080
Speaker 1: is not even within the realm of when you're asking

697
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:04,080
Speaker 1: about Maga and all those other folks. They are so

698
00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:07,720
Speaker 1: triggered and listen, I emotionally, I understand this. Whenever people,

699
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:09,840
Speaker 1: you know, I see the media, Maryland Father and all

700
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 1: talking about all this, I get it. I totally understand,

701
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:16,240
Speaker 1: because you're basically conveying citizenship effectively on somebody who is

702
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 1: not a citizen. You know, even in a lot of

703
00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:20,680
Speaker 1: these other cases, they're going to look exactly like what

704
00:33:20,760 --> 00:33:21,960
Speaker 1: I just did and be like, oh my god. You know,

705
00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:24,320
Speaker 1: they're claiming this guy is like mother Teresa or whatever,

706
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:26,680
Speaker 1: and it's like, okay, well he didn't even follow basic

707
00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 1: preceps of law. It's not about that right now, because

708
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:32,360
Speaker 1: we can't. And in fact, if the government had simply

709
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:36,360
Speaker 1: followed the basic laid out process and had gone through

710
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:39,920
Speaker 1: an ice hoold and a deportation order, of which they

711
00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:42,840
Speaker 1: are well within their ability as they continue to do

712
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:47,200
Speaker 1: right now, they could say nothing about nobody except the

713
00:33:47,240 --> 00:33:51,120
Speaker 1: ACLU and some open borders lawyers will be talking about this.

714
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:53,880
Speaker 1: You would be on the most winning ground I'm talking

715
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:58,560
Speaker 1: politically now. However, by doing this, you are actually poisoning

716
00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:01,760
Speaker 1: the well, just like they did with for any sort

717
00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:05,280
Speaker 1: of faith and credibility, even from many people who support

718
00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:08,640
Speaker 1: your supposed policy, to be able to believe a word

719
00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:11,480
Speaker 1: that you say. And that is where I find myself

720
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:13,719
Speaker 1: looking at this, is that there was and this. You know,

721
00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:16,959
Speaker 1: you've talked about this with Glenn in particular. He's like, look,

722
00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 1: nothing stops you from doing the deportation to your own

723
00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:23,320
Speaker 1: home cut literally nothing, So do that, you know again

724
00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:26,719
Speaker 1: with the barber guy, like really, like you know, we're

725
00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:28,560
Speaker 1: really going to take the society and claim seriously like

726
00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:30,560
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, I don't And you know, fine, we can

727
00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:33,319
Speaker 1: argue again about that all day long. Fine, send him

728
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:37,080
Speaker 1: back to Venezuela. But you know, sending somebody to a prison,

729
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:40,360
Speaker 1: or even in this particular case, admitting that you shouldn't

730
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:43,400
Speaker 1: have done so and under no pretense of a process,

731
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 1: and then also no pretense of pretending to bring somebody back,

732
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:49,440
Speaker 1: It's simply not the same debate. And by putting yourself

733
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 1: on this debate, in my opinion, I'm curious what you think.

734
00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:56,120
Speaker 1: I actually do think this is a big demarcation point

735
00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 1: for the government where a lot of people, yes, Magapolitan,

736
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:02,160
Speaker 1: and all of them may not be talking. There are

737
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 1: a lot of normal conservative MAGA folks and others who

738
00:35:04,560 --> 00:35:07,120
Speaker 1: agree with deportation, who are like, yeah, I'm out on

739
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:09,600
Speaker 1: this one, and I think that they have done that

740
00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:12,040
Speaker 1: with the tariffs, They've done that with the credibility, a

741
00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 1: lot of that with Doe. We'll talk about does too,

742
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:17,359
Speaker 1: won't we about? You know, some of their redefinitions. At

743
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:19,040
Speaker 1: a certain point, you got to get the hood pulled

744
00:35:19,080 --> 00:35:21,080
Speaker 1: over from your eyes. You know, you can support a

745
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:23,280
Speaker 1: lot of these things in principle and you can also

746
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:25,279
Speaker 1: criticize I think a lot of the ways that not

747
00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:30,279
Speaker 1: even about practicality, but seeing genuinely on the facts of

748
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:32,400
Speaker 1: the matter, they're not the same thing as to what

749
00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:34,319
Speaker 1: the government is trying to argue. Because you know, every

750
00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:36,480
Speaker 1: time Steven Miller opens his mouth, he's talking to how

751
00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:38,840
Speaker 1: I am about, oh, somebody who came here legally. It's like, no,

752
00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:41,719
Speaker 1: that's not what we're talking about here. Though you could

753
00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:44,960
Speaker 1: have easily deported him again, nobody would have said anything

754
00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:47,959
Speaker 1: unless except for the ACLU and a bunch of other

755
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:50,880
Speaker 1: like Catholic charities organizations, and nobody really cares what they

756
00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:53,399
Speaker 1: have to say, but that's not what we're talking about here.

757
00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:56,920
Speaker 1: You made this into a national case for basically no reason. Well,

758
00:35:56,960 --> 00:35:58,680
Speaker 1: actually no, I think we do know the reasons, because

759
00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:01,439
Speaker 1: they want the maximum and this is good. They want

760
00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:04,840
Speaker 1: last thing. I'm sorry droning on, but the point about

761
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:08,120
Speaker 1: mass deportation is it's actually not happening. It's just the

762
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:11,400
Speaker 1: truth is is that the numbers are not that high,

763
00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:14,120
Speaker 1: and it is obvious that the government is either too

764
00:36:14,160 --> 00:36:17,520
Speaker 1: incompetent or unable to actually even do what they said

765
00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:19,600
Speaker 1: they were going to do, which is start with criminals

766
00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 1: and or whatever, and they're diverting immense amount of resources

767
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:25,440
Speaker 1: at the exact same time to these palstain and I mean,

768
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:27,799
Speaker 1: you know, you look at these videos of oz Turk.

769
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:31,640
Speaker 1: You know there's like five people there. What what are

770
00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:35,400
Speaker 1: we doing? What are we doing, you know, for to

771
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:38,640
Speaker 1: dedicate all of these resources to this you know, police

772
00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:41,240
Speaker 1: state on behalf of a foreign government. And then same

773
00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:45,239
Speaker 1: in the uh sheer ineptitude and either ineptitude or callousness,

774
00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 1: I don't know which it is for things like this

775
00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:50,080
Speaker 1: where oh just grab them anyway, So there's no rhyme,

776
00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:53,680
Speaker 1: there's no reason, And yeah, they've lost they have lost

777
00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:56,799
Speaker 1: all credibility in the eyes. I think of any you know,

778
00:36:56,960 --> 00:37:00,200
Speaker 1: reasonable person who could look at this now at this point,

779
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:02,440
Speaker 1: and you know that's uh that they are going to

780
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:07,840
Speaker 1: validate the immigrant activists more than anybody else on the planet.

781
00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:10,520
Speaker 1: And so four or five years from now, if you

782
00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:14,000
Speaker 1: lose the White House and they mass legalize everybody, that's

783
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:16,759
Speaker 1: on you at this point, I really, I really believe that.

784
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:20,279
Speaker 2: Well because they I mean, you're right that they validated

785
00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:23,800
Speaker 2: like the worst, the worst fears. I mean literally beyond honestly,

786
00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:25,920
Speaker 2: and you guys know, like you could accuse me of

787
00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:28,839
Speaker 2: Trump arrangement syndrome, but I was very concerned about this administration.

788
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:32,239
Speaker 2: This is far beyond, far beyond what I what I

789
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:35,879
Speaker 2: could have even come up with. And last thing I'll

790
00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:37,839
Speaker 2: say is just, you know, to tie in the piece

791
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:40,279
Speaker 2: that you were talking about of the crackdown on these

792
00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:44,480
Speaker 2: student protesters and activists and some people who aren't even activists,

793
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:49,239
Speaker 2: all of this is, you know, they're they're workshopping it

794
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 2: with immigrants. It will not stay with immigrants. We already

795
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:54,120
Speaker 2: obviously already see.

796
00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:54,520
Speaker 3: Him out there.

797
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:58,840
Speaker 2: The homegrowns are next, okay, And you cannot you should

798
00:37:58,880 --> 00:37:59,719
Speaker 2: not expect them to get.

799
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:01,040
Speaker 3: First of all, no American.

800
00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 2: Citizens should just be shipped, even if you are a criminal,

801
00:38:03,080 --> 00:38:06,080
Speaker 2: should be shipped to this foreign dungeon, in my opinion.

802
00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:10,920
Speaker 2: But even if you're okay with that, why should you

803
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:13,880
Speaker 2: believe this administration when they say, oh, we're going to

804
00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:15,799
Speaker 2: send the worst of the worst, and they're sending some

805
00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:18,200
Speaker 2: nineteen year old kid who's done nothing wrong. They're sending

806
00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:20,399
Speaker 2: the gay makeup artists who's done nothing wrong. They're sending

807
00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:23,680
Speaker 2: ninety percent of the people they sent no criminal record,

808
00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:28,680
Speaker 2: ninety percent, only five had felony convictions. Okay, so what

809
00:38:28,719 --> 00:38:32,239
Speaker 2: they're testing with the immigrants first is intended for the

810
00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:35,160
Speaker 2: whole population. And yes, we already have indications of that

811
00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:37,480
Speaker 2: with Israel's well, we already have proof of that with

812
00:38:38,440 --> 00:38:42,520
Speaker 2: US citizens who they pressured universities to kick.

813
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:42,960
Speaker 3: Out of school.

814
00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:43,799
Speaker 1: There.

815
00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:50,279
Speaker 2: They are investigating these pro pales signed protests as terrorism.

816
00:38:50,800 --> 00:38:53,560
Speaker 2: What's starting in the immigrant community, because that's like the

817
00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:56,000
Speaker 2: lowest hanging fruit, and they can argue, we're elected to

818
00:38:56,000 --> 00:38:59,320
Speaker 2: do this, blah blah blah. The plan is to spread

819
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:03,719
Speaker 2: that to everyone. So that's why everyone should be concerned

820
00:39:03,760 --> 00:39:06,120
Speaker 2: about what is going on here, even if you don't

821
00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:08,319
Speaker 2: care about these particular individuals, you don't care about this

822
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:09,040
Speaker 2: particular cause.

823
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:10,120
Speaker 3: First all, I would say you should.

824
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:14,239
Speaker 2: But even if you don't, this does not stay with

825
00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:18,120
Speaker 2: these individuals. There is nothing that means that keeps this

826
00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:21,520
Speaker 2: infringement on rights among a certain select group of people

827
00:39:21,600 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 2: within the country.

828
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:24,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's why it's important. As I said, that

829
00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:26,719
Speaker 1: is not hyperbole. That is quite literally true in the

830
00:39:26,719 --> 00:39:28,839
Speaker 1: case of the Abrygo Guercy. And that's part of why

831
00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:34,000
Speaker 1: it's so deeply concerning. Okay, shall we move on to

832
00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:36,759
Speaker 1: Trump and disapproval rating. I think these two things tie in.

833
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:38,640
Speaker 1: I really do. I think there's been a you know,

834
00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:40,880
Speaker 1: we talked a lot about that vibe shift from November.

835
00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 1: When when do you think the vibe shift peak February?

836
00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:45,240
Speaker 1: What do you want to say? I would say February first.

837
00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:48,880
Speaker 1: That was before true Doge Idiocy started.

838
00:39:48,640 --> 00:39:50,359
Speaker 3: To say, Okay, I'll give you that, right.

839
00:39:50,520 --> 00:39:52,760
Speaker 1: So it was like it was ten days, nine days

840
00:39:52,760 --> 00:39:56,359
Speaker 1: into the first Trump administration. We had the ceasefire in Gaza, right,

841
00:39:56,400 --> 00:39:59,800
Speaker 1: so we could peace post. We had Elon was Elon

842
00:39:59,880 --> 00:40:03,520
Speaker 1: was around, There were the executive orders, there was the

843
00:40:03,600 --> 00:40:05,880
Speaker 1: general vibe like okay, and then you know, buy around

844
00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:09,000
Speaker 1: mid feb that's when I think things really started to shift.

845
00:40:09,480 --> 00:40:12,040
Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and then talk about Trump's approval rating.

846
00:40:12,120 --> 00:40:14,680
Speaker 1: So Trump, as we talked about often in the early days,

847
00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:16,879
Speaker 1: the first month or so, he was doing pretty well,

848
00:40:16,880 --> 00:40:19,799
Speaker 1: even with the highest ever for him. You know, he

849
00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:23,080
Speaker 1: was standing strong on the economy, seemed to be doing

850
00:40:23,080 --> 00:40:26,440
Speaker 1: incredibly well on immigration. Things have now taken a pretty

851
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:29,160
Speaker 1: significant turn for him, and in the same trend line

852
00:40:29,160 --> 00:40:32,000
Speaker 1: that we saw for Joe Biden after the withdrawal from Afghanistan,

853
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:34,759
Speaker 1: except this one is just a mere eighty some days

854
00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:36,879
Speaker 1: into his first term. Let's take a listen to Harry

855
00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:38,120
Speaker 1: Anthony breaks a lot of it down.

856
00:40:38,440 --> 00:40:41,080
Speaker 7: I would argue this is the worst set of polling

857
00:40:41,200 --> 00:40:44,160
Speaker 7: data that Donald Trump has had in his entire second

858
00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:46,680
Speaker 7: term as president, in part because the CBS News You Go,

859
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:50,640
Speaker 7: Paul that came out yesterday has been one of his best.

860
00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:53,240
Speaker 7: Let's first take a look at how folks are feeling

861
00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:55,960
Speaker 7: about the state of the economy. Think that the economy

862
00:40:56,040 --> 00:40:58,360
Speaker 7: is getting worse. What you don't have to be a

863
00:40:58,400 --> 00:41:00,920
Speaker 7: mathematical genius to see the tre line on your screen,

864
00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:04,440
Speaker 7: and it is getting worse. More folks are feeling the

865
00:41:04,480 --> 00:41:06,840
Speaker 7: economy is going southward. Back in November, it was just

866
00:41:06,840 --> 00:41:08,880
Speaker 7: forty two percent of Americans who said the economy is

867
00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:11,640
Speaker 7: getting worse. You jump forward to February, forty nine percent.

868
00:41:11,760 --> 00:41:14,560
Speaker 7: You jump forward to March fifty one percent. Now look

869
00:41:14,600 --> 00:41:17,960
Speaker 7: at this number, fifty three percent. The clear majority of

870
00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:21,680
Speaker 7: Americans think that the economy is getting worse. Donald Trump

871
00:41:21,760 --> 00:41:24,279
Speaker 7: wants to say, don't blame me if you're upset with

872
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:26,800
Speaker 7: the state of the economy, blame the other guy.

873
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:28,000
Speaker 1: I don't think.

874
00:41:27,840 --> 00:41:30,640
Speaker 7: Americans are buying what he's selling at this particular point,

875
00:41:30,680 --> 00:41:33,200
Speaker 7: at least anymore more responsible for the economic state. They

876
00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:35,720
Speaker 7: asked about inflation back in March. Look at this, thirty

877
00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:39,680
Speaker 7: eight percent, said Joe Biden. Thirty four percent, said Donald Trump.

878
00:41:39,760 --> 00:41:41,520
Speaker 7: But look at where we are this month when they

879
00:41:41,520 --> 00:41:43,839
Speaker 7: asked about the general state of the economy. Look at

880
00:41:43,840 --> 00:41:47,120
Speaker 7: how much higher the Trump number is fifty four percent.

881
00:41:47,160 --> 00:41:50,400
Speaker 1: That Joe Biden percentage drops through the floor at twenty

882
00:41:50,440 --> 00:41:51,040
Speaker 1: one percent.

883
00:41:51,280 --> 00:41:54,520
Speaker 7: So this idea that Donald Trump will try to sell

884
00:41:54,520 --> 00:41:57,240
Speaker 7: to the American public is trying to sell the American public,

885
00:41:57,560 --> 00:41:59,000
Speaker 7: is that it's the other guy.

886
00:41:59,200 --> 00:41:59,840
Speaker 4: It's not me.

887
00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 1: It's that other guy, that old guy, Joe Biden.

888
00:42:03,520 --> 00:42:07,560
Speaker 7: No longer is this being The American public is no

889
00:42:07,600 --> 00:42:10,480
Speaker 7: longer buying this set of arguments like they were back

890
00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:10,960
Speaker 7: in March.

891
00:42:11,200 --> 00:42:14,760
Speaker 1: So you could see that the turn from blaming Biden

892
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:18,759
Speaker 1: not exactly positive news there for Donald Trump. The more

893
00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:22,400
Speaker 1: ownership that he has over the economy, the more negative

894
00:42:22,400 --> 00:42:24,919
Speaker 1: that it will be, especially as we see the conflagration

895
00:42:25,040 --> 00:42:29,360
Speaker 1: of tariffs, of consumer sentiment and price increases began to cascade.

896
00:42:29,480 --> 00:42:31,759
Speaker 1: If they do stick to the current policy, don't forget that.

897
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:33,720
Speaker 1: Let's go and put this up there on the screen.

898
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:37,120
Speaker 1: We saw a similar decline in the overall tracking index

899
00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:40,560
Speaker 1: of the approval rating. So what Nate silver flags here

900
00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:43,359
Speaker 1: is that the precipitous decline that we saw right now,

901
00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:46,000
Speaker 1: a Trump approval is currently at minus five. But that's

902
00:42:46,080 --> 00:42:48,440
Speaker 1: quote only. If we used poll since Liberation Day, he

903
00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:51,400
Speaker 1: would be at minus eight point five instead. That is

904
00:42:51,440 --> 00:42:54,520
Speaker 1: a pretty significant hit over the span of barely more

905
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:56,879
Speaker 1: than a week. He was at minus two point five

906
00:42:57,080 --> 00:43:00,960
Speaker 1: on April first, just before Liberation Day. I would also

907
00:43:01,120 --> 00:43:05,600
Speaker 1: note in particular that the focus right now, if you're

908
00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:08,280
Speaker 1: just thinking about the people who are all paying attention

909
00:43:08,480 --> 00:43:12,239
Speaker 1: right to people who are generally looking at the news, etc. Immigration,

910
00:43:12,560 --> 00:43:15,319
Speaker 1: despite the entire segment we just did, was still very

911
00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:17,880
Speaker 1: strong ground I think for Donald Trump. But go ahead

912
00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:20,200
Speaker 1: and put B four up on the screen. This is

913
00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:25,120
Speaker 1: very important that tariffs have actually moved ahead of immigration

914
00:43:25,280 --> 00:43:28,600
Speaker 1: as a top concern for American voters. From the latest

915
00:43:28,960 --> 00:43:32,560
Speaker 1: poll from Echelon Insights, the very concern number at some

916
00:43:32,640 --> 00:43:37,120
Speaker 1: seventy percent there, and actually even more concern in the

917
00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:40,560
Speaker 1: very concern for the tariffs over immigration, with immigration actually

918
00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:43,840
Speaker 1: falling below a fiftieth percentile, with the majority of the

919
00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:47,960
Speaker 1: population really focusing in on tariffs, it's just weak ground

920
00:43:47,960 --> 00:43:50,920
Speaker 1: for Donald Trump because he doesn't even have the conceptual

921
00:43:51,040 --> 00:43:54,400
Speaker 1: fallback that he originally would have had rhetorically on the issue.

922
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 1: Now it's just all about the process, the whipsaw, the seesaw,

923
00:43:58,160 --> 00:44:01,040
Speaker 1: the chaos that people can tune in to every day.

924
00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:04,000
Speaker 1: And that is a very similar feeling, I think to

925
00:44:04,080 --> 00:44:07,000
Speaker 1: the Biden administration, where they felt as if at the

926
00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:10,040
Speaker 1: end of the day for inflation, there was no steady

927
00:44:10,040 --> 00:44:12,279
Speaker 1: hand on the wheel, there was no plan. That's really

928
00:44:12,280 --> 00:44:14,520
Speaker 1: when Biden sank, right, Yeah, it was twenty twenty two.

929
00:44:14,520 --> 00:44:16,320
Speaker 1: In my opinion, and we could see that's when the

930
00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:19,200
Speaker 1: runaway inflation and all that started to happen. And all

931
00:44:19,280 --> 00:44:22,279
Speaker 1: of this is just terrible data for Donald Trump and

932
00:44:22,320 --> 00:44:24,800
Speaker 1: for his White House because they want to try and

933
00:44:24,840 --> 00:44:26,840
Speaker 1: say face, they want to try and actually do something

934
00:44:26,840 --> 00:44:30,120
Speaker 1: after they basically nuked this entire you know, the entire

935
00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:32,839
Speaker 1: economic outlook of the country. But they don't know where

936
00:44:32,840 --> 00:44:34,480
Speaker 1: to fall. They just don't know what they're doing, right.

937
00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:37,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, and Trump loves the teriffs because he I mean,

938
00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:40,040
Speaker 2: he shouldn't be able to do them unilaterally, but.

939
00:44:40,000 --> 00:44:40,520
Speaker 3: He just is.

940
00:44:40,600 --> 00:44:43,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, change, and so it does give him the power

941
00:44:43,920 --> 00:44:45,520
Speaker 2: of a monarch. I mean, there is a reason why

942
00:44:45,560 --> 00:44:48,680
Speaker 2: tariffs were supposed to be the purview of Congress, so

943
00:44:48,719 --> 00:44:52,320
Speaker 2: that you wouldn't have the dynamic of this like CEO,

944
00:44:52,480 --> 00:44:55,920
Speaker 2: king dictator figure going and doling out, Oh you get

945
00:44:55,960 --> 00:44:59,000
Speaker 2: an exemption, you get an exemption, like and all these

946
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:02,200
Speaker 2: companies and all the countries coming to call this man

947
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:05,359
Speaker 2: has development properties all around the world. You don't think

948
00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:07,279
Speaker 2: that these countries are going to be coming to him

949
00:45:07,320 --> 00:45:10,080
Speaker 2: greasing the skids, giving him tax and so whatever it.

950
00:45:10,080 --> 00:45:11,520
Speaker 3: Is going to help his business.

951
00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:15,360
Speaker 2: Making sure that you know, Tesla's on a solid ground

952
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:17,319
Speaker 2: whatever it is that Trump wants on, and so he

953
00:45:17,600 --> 00:45:18,480
Speaker 2: loves that power.

954
00:45:18,760 --> 00:45:20,000
Speaker 3: But tariffs have actually.

955
00:45:19,760 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 2: Always been one of the shakier parts of his plan

956
00:45:22,800 --> 00:45:25,720
Speaker 2: of the things that he ran on. It was always

957
00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:27,920
Speaker 2: during his campaign when we were looking at the numbers,

958
00:45:27,920 --> 00:45:29,760
Speaker 2: it was always sort of like fifty to fifty. People

959
00:45:29,760 --> 00:45:32,200
Speaker 2: were not in love with the idea of tariffs. And

960
00:45:32,280 --> 00:45:35,280
Speaker 2: it makes sense because at this point you had inflation

961
00:45:35,480 --> 00:45:38,759
Speaker 2: as the number one economic concern and people felt like

962
00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:41,640
Speaker 2: terrors are probably going to make things even more expensive.

963
00:45:41,640 --> 00:45:42,600
Speaker 3: And they're right about that.

964
00:45:42,960 --> 00:45:45,880
Speaker 2: You know, in some of that CBS News you go polling,

965
00:45:46,280 --> 00:45:48,960
Speaker 2: they ask people who do you think is going to

966
00:45:48,960 --> 00:45:52,360
Speaker 2: benefit from Trump's trade and tariff policies? Number one answer

967
00:45:52,440 --> 00:45:55,680
Speaker 2: seventy four percent, the wealthy. Number two answers seventy one percent.

968
00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:59,719
Speaker 2: Large corporations, The next one down fifty percent. So big

969
00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:03,719
Speaker 2: is US auto industry, which we'll talk more about in

970
00:46:03,760 --> 00:46:04,360
Speaker 2: the next.

971
00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:06,239
Speaker 3: Block, and then it's all the way down.

972
00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:10,360
Speaker 2: The lowest ones are working class, middle class and small businesses.

973
00:46:10,719 --> 00:46:13,120
Speaker 2: So people don't feel like this is a plan that

974
00:46:13,200 --> 00:46:15,080
Speaker 2: is going to help them, even though it is being

975
00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:17,760
Speaker 2: sold in that way. And at a time when inflation

976
00:46:17,840 --> 00:46:21,600
Speaker 2: continues to be a massive concern for Americans and for

977
00:46:21,719 --> 00:46:25,359
Speaker 2: American consumers. Obviously, they're going to be deeply concerned about

978
00:46:25,360 --> 00:46:26,359
Speaker 2: what is going on here.

979
00:46:26,400 --> 00:46:27,719
Speaker 3: And in some ways, even.

980
00:46:27,560 --> 00:46:30,719
Speaker 2: Like obviously he's pulled back some, although I think I

981
00:46:30,800 --> 00:46:34,319
Speaker 2: honestly think it's been a little bit oversold how much

982
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:36,760
Speaker 2: he's pulled back. In my whole monologue is about tariffs,

983
00:46:36,760 --> 00:46:39,680
Speaker 2: and I dig into a small business owner who imports

984
00:46:39,680 --> 00:46:41,960
Speaker 2: her product from China. She actually wanted to import it

985
00:46:41,960 --> 00:46:44,160
Speaker 2: from the United Issue, or wanted to produce it in

986
00:46:44,160 --> 00:46:47,840
Speaker 2: the United States. It just was literally impossible, and the

987
00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:50,560
Speaker 2: one hundred and forty five percent China terrors they will

988
00:46:50,600 --> 00:46:53,640
Speaker 2: destroy her business, Like there is no way, no way

989
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:57,360
Speaker 2: that she can survive, and she is one of many.

990
00:46:57,880 --> 00:47:01,320
Speaker 2: So But even if Trump rolls back on even more

991
00:47:01,360 --> 00:47:03,880
Speaker 2: of the tariffs and makes all these deals and declares

992
00:47:03,960 --> 00:47:06,920
Speaker 2: victory art of the deal, whatever, I do think in

993
00:47:06,960 --> 00:47:08,719
Speaker 2: a lot of ways, the damage has already been done.

994
00:47:08,760 --> 00:47:11,040
Speaker 2: And I do think it is somewhat analogous too. Even

995
00:47:11,080 --> 00:47:15,000
Speaker 2: though I still support Biden having gotten out of Afghanistan,

996
00:47:15,239 --> 00:47:17,520
Speaker 2: there's just no denying that there was a massive hit

997
00:47:17,520 --> 00:47:19,920
Speaker 2: to his approvot he never recovered from. And I do

998
00:47:19,960 --> 00:47:22,200
Speaker 2: think it's analogous like the honeymoon is over for Trump,

999
00:47:22,400 --> 00:47:27,600
Speaker 2: the vibe shift has vibe shifted again, and the economic

1000
00:47:28,200 --> 00:47:30,800
Speaker 2: damage that is being done right now in this moment,

1001
00:47:31,200 --> 00:47:34,400
Speaker 2: with this level of uncertainty and people feeling like business

1002
00:47:34,440 --> 00:47:36,520
Speaker 2: is feeling like I can't do. I just got to

1003
00:47:36,600 --> 00:47:39,279
Speaker 2: like hold on to cash and freeze in place and

1004
00:47:39,360 --> 00:47:43,120
Speaker 2: hope I can survive this totally unnecessary tumult that is

1005
00:47:43,160 --> 00:47:46,200
Speaker 2: not going to be undone no matter what Trump announces today, tomorrow,

1006
00:47:46,280 --> 00:47:47,160
Speaker 2: the next day, et cetera.

1007
00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:50,960
Speaker 1: What serious person, CEO, even if the administration came out

1008
00:47:51,000 --> 00:47:52,680
Speaker 1: tomorrow and was like, this is our plan for the

1009
00:47:52,680 --> 00:47:56,680
Speaker 1: next four years, what serious person would actually invest based

1010
00:47:56,760 --> 00:47:59,160
Speaker 1: upon that confidence? Serious I said that, Yes, I don't know.

1011
00:47:59,160 --> 00:48:00,759
Speaker 1: If you caught this, I was, I would short the

1012
00:48:00,760 --> 00:48:01,560
Speaker 1: stock of anybody.

1013
00:48:01,600 --> 00:48:05,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, you were like, I would a fire, I would vote.

1014
00:48:05,080 --> 00:48:07,359
Speaker 1: To fire that CEO. I'd be like, no, we're not

1015
00:48:07,400 --> 00:48:10,319
Speaker 1: doing this. You clearly have no judgment, dude. You need

1016
00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:14,240
Speaker 1: to keep hoard the cash and do nothing, absolutely nothing.

1017
00:48:14,840 --> 00:48:18,160
Speaker 1: Don't take too big of a risk. And that's because

1018
00:48:18,440 --> 00:48:22,320
Speaker 1: there's no confidence, you know. And what drives me nuts

1019
00:48:22,360 --> 00:48:26,000
Speaker 1: about this too, is that it's clear that people are

1020
00:48:26,000 --> 00:48:29,200
Speaker 1: not even still paying attention to the tax legislation, which

1021
00:48:29,239 --> 00:48:31,920
Speaker 1: still has to come out later on this year, and

1022
00:48:32,360 --> 00:48:36,000
Speaker 1: there is no really positive sign for Donald Trump in

1023
00:48:36,080 --> 00:48:38,880
Speaker 1: the next I would say nine months. We have the

1024
00:48:38,920 --> 00:48:41,360
Speaker 1: tariffs that is going to dominate the news elon and

1025
00:48:41,360 --> 00:48:44,080
Speaker 1: all that does is basically, I mean, it's still around,

1026
00:48:44,120 --> 00:48:46,319
Speaker 1: but it's not really like the number one concern. So

1027
00:48:46,320 --> 00:48:48,319
Speaker 1: you've got this immigration stuff, a front page story on

1028
00:48:48,400 --> 00:48:51,719
Speaker 1: literally every across the paper at every country. Probably the

1029
00:48:51,800 --> 00:48:53,640
Speaker 1: number one thing that most people hear about if they

1030
00:48:53,640 --> 00:48:56,120
Speaker 1: are politically engaged, Tariffs is going to be number one,

1031
00:48:56,160 --> 00:48:59,319
Speaker 1: and or number two that they're generally who are who

1032
00:48:59,320 --> 00:49:03,160
Speaker 1: they're generally in gaging with. Well, what else is on

1033
00:49:03,200 --> 00:49:06,520
Speaker 1: the horizon? The only next major thing that we can

1034
00:49:06,560 --> 00:49:10,480
Speaker 1: predict on the horizon is the tax legislation. We know

1035
00:49:10,520 --> 00:49:12,960
Speaker 1: from baseline the tax legtion is gonna be crazy unpopular.

1036
00:49:13,080 --> 00:49:15,520
Speaker 1: There's no there's not even an argument about it's just period,

1037
00:49:15,680 --> 00:49:18,120
Speaker 1: and most Republicans will admit that with a straight face.

1038
00:49:18,320 --> 00:49:21,560
Speaker 1: There's really nothing you can do. And also Trump said

1039
00:49:21,600 --> 00:49:24,120
Speaker 1: I want to cut a trillion dollars, So it's kind

1040
00:49:24,120 --> 00:49:26,880
Speaker 1: of like with Biden where we can look ahead to

1041
00:49:27,080 --> 00:49:29,000
Speaker 1: whatever is going to come next. We know no major

1042
00:49:29,000 --> 00:49:30,920
Speaker 1: piece of legislation in the pass the Senate or the

1043
00:49:30,920 --> 00:49:33,560
Speaker 1: House of Representatives before this tax bill. We know that

1044
00:49:33,600 --> 00:49:35,839
Speaker 1: it has to happen in the next several months. So

1045
00:49:35,880 --> 00:49:38,960
Speaker 1: the next flagship piece of legislation after this whole economy

1046
00:49:39,160 --> 00:49:41,799
Speaker 1: and tariff situation is going to be a major tax

1047
00:49:41,840 --> 00:49:45,279
Speaker 1: cut for corporations and a trillion dollar According to them,

1048
00:49:45,320 --> 00:49:47,040
Speaker 1: it's not my words. They said, I want to cut

1049
00:49:47,040 --> 00:49:49,400
Speaker 1: one trillion dollars and I want to increase the Pentagon

1050
00:49:49,440 --> 00:49:51,880
Speaker 1: budget by one hundred and fifty billion dollars, which just

1051
00:49:51,880 --> 00:49:53,440
Speaker 1: so happens to be the exact amount of money that

1052
00:49:53,520 --> 00:49:56,000
Speaker 1: Elon now claves that dough has to be saved. So

1053
00:49:56,600 --> 00:49:58,520
Speaker 1: what are we doing here? You know, what's the net

1054
00:49:58,520 --> 00:50:00,960
Speaker 1: out effect of this? You would be forgiven to be

1055
00:50:01,000 --> 00:50:03,279
Speaker 1: pretty pessimistic about that whole situation, wouldn't you.

1056
00:50:03,320 --> 00:50:08,719
Speaker 2: Any lune flying about those savings.

1057
00:50:06,719 --> 00:50:11,200
Speaker 1: Even at bakes value completely. But I'm saying from an

1058
00:50:11,239 --> 00:50:15,640
Speaker 1: approval rating standpoint, the TCJA, the tax cuts and job

1059
00:50:15,719 --> 00:50:18,360
Speaker 1: zack was the lowest single day of Donaldsham's presidency in

1060
00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:21,160
Speaker 1: the first term. The lowest day. Again, everybody always forgets

1061
00:50:21,200 --> 00:50:23,839
Speaker 1: that people do pay attention sometimes. I think that will

1062
00:50:23,840 --> 00:50:26,319
Speaker 1: happen again this time around, and it will be a

1063
00:50:26,360 --> 00:50:30,080
Speaker 1: Biden like compounding effect of either bailing out the rich,

1064
00:50:30,400 --> 00:50:33,840
Speaker 1: feeling chaotic, not really having a steady hand at the wheel.

1065
00:50:34,000 --> 00:50:36,759
Speaker 1: So you can see on approval on approval grounds, on

1066
00:50:36,840 --> 00:50:39,080
Speaker 1: the economy, and more. The more you lose that, I mean,

1067
00:50:39,120 --> 00:50:40,759
Speaker 1: you and I have said this. Nobody knows what will

1068
00:50:40,760 --> 00:50:42,960
Speaker 1: happen at the midterms, okay, And of course nobody knows

1069
00:50:43,000 --> 00:50:45,440
Speaker 1: what happen in global affairs. Trump could literally I don't know,

1070
00:50:45,480 --> 00:50:47,279
Speaker 1: there could be a crazy pieced in Ukraine. There could

1071
00:50:47,320 --> 00:50:49,200
Speaker 1: be this new ceasfire and goudz. There's so many different

1072
00:50:49,239 --> 00:50:51,000
Speaker 1: things that could affect it. But in terms of what

1073
00:50:51,040 --> 00:50:53,880
Speaker 1: we can predict, that's what we see on the horizon

1074
00:50:54,239 --> 00:50:56,560
Speaker 1: as something that is very obvious for his approval rating,

1075
00:50:56,719 --> 00:50:58,040
Speaker 1: that is not going to go over well.

1076
00:50:58,160 --> 00:50:59,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, And the last thing I want to note here

1077
00:51:00,160 --> 00:51:02,560
Speaker 2: b three up on the screen Trump's approval rating with

1078
00:51:02,600 --> 00:51:06,480
Speaker 2: young people. People were very excited about Trump performing better

1079
00:51:06,560 --> 00:51:10,840
Speaker 2: among young people. It's one pole, small sample, who knows, okay,

1080
00:51:10,880 --> 00:51:13,879
Speaker 2: But look at the way among eighteen to twenty nine

1081
00:51:13,920 --> 00:51:17,480
Speaker 2: year olds. His approval rating has fallen off a frickin

1082
00:51:18,000 --> 00:51:20,640
Speaker 2: cliff around the time he got elected. You can see

1083
00:51:20,680 --> 00:51:24,000
Speaker 2: him in solidly positive territory. You know, there's been a

1084
00:51:24,040 --> 00:51:26,560
Speaker 2: decline among other age groups except those forty five to

1085
00:51:26,600 --> 00:51:28,919
Speaker 2: sixty four year olds. Actually they're kind of those gen xers.

1086
00:51:28,920 --> 00:51:31,040
Speaker 2: They're kind of hanging in there, aren't they. But among

1087
00:51:31,080 --> 00:51:33,919
Speaker 2: eighteen to twenty nine year olds it has plummeted. Now

1088
00:51:34,040 --> 00:51:37,480
Speaker 2: at its lowest levels, looks like minus thirty some, oh,

1089
00:51:37,480 --> 00:51:41,520
Speaker 2: minus twenty nine here among eighteen to twenty nine year olds. So,

1090
00:51:42,120 --> 00:51:45,200
Speaker 2: you know, all of these hopeful takes about how you

1091
00:51:45,200 --> 00:51:47,400
Speaker 2: know the young people are going to be they're going

1092
00:51:47,440 --> 00:51:49,839
Speaker 2: to be shifting right and they're super conservative and they

1093
00:51:49,840 --> 00:51:52,759
Speaker 2: love Donald Trump, that all seems to be evaporating very

1094
00:51:52,840 --> 00:51:53,719
Speaker 2: quickly in real time.

1095
00:51:53,960 --> 00:51:57,359
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, like I said, you never know these

1096
00:51:57,360 --> 00:52:01,520
Speaker 1: polls and all that ahead to the election. But I

1097
00:52:01,600 --> 00:52:04,239
Speaker 1: do think instead of looking at the poll, let me

1098
00:52:04,239 --> 00:52:07,799
Speaker 1: think about the fundamentals. What are young folks tuned into.

1099
00:52:07,920 --> 00:52:10,880
Speaker 1: What was the whole vibe shift about on TikTok and others.

1100
00:52:11,080 --> 00:52:14,360
Speaker 1: It was about irreverence, specifically for young men. It was

1101
00:52:14,400 --> 00:52:17,040
Speaker 1: more of a cultural attitude right now is not a

1102
00:52:17,040 --> 00:52:19,600
Speaker 1: cultural moment. Right now is one of the rare times

1103
00:52:19,800 --> 00:52:22,319
Speaker 1: in American history where it's actually a policy moment. It's

1104
00:52:22,320 --> 00:52:25,480
Speaker 1: about tariffs, it's about immigration. Those are real things, and

1105
00:52:25,520 --> 00:52:28,759
Speaker 1: it's not really about pronouns and bios or you know,

1106
00:52:28,840 --> 00:52:30,920
Speaker 1: any of that other stuff right now. I think Richard

1107
00:52:30,920 --> 00:52:33,000
Speaker 1: Hanania said he's like, it feels indecent to be talking

1108
00:52:33,040 --> 00:52:34,600
Speaker 1: about wokeness right now, and I was like, you know,

1109
00:52:34,680 --> 00:52:38,759
Speaker 1: that's actually very belief. That is an absolutely correct observation.

1110
00:52:38,840 --> 00:52:40,919
Speaker 3: Well, sorry, god, no, no, that's fine.

1111
00:52:40,920 --> 00:52:42,520
Speaker 1: I was just gonna say, it's not they're not in

1112
00:52:42,560 --> 00:52:46,480
Speaker 1: power anymore. They're gone. We have a different arm. Yeah. Also,

1113
00:52:46,760 --> 00:52:50,319
Speaker 1: whoever runs for president next, I have relative confidence they're

1114
00:52:50,320 --> 00:52:52,120
Speaker 1: not going to be having their pronouns in bio. Right,

1115
00:52:52,200 --> 00:52:55,359
Speaker 1: So we won, all right, congratulations. Yeah. I don't think

1116
00:52:55,360 --> 00:52:57,080
Speaker 1: trans athletes are gonna end up in the d one

1117
00:52:57,280 --> 00:52:59,280
Speaker 1: at this point anymore. They probably have learned their lesson.

1118
00:52:59,400 --> 00:53:01,320
Speaker 1: If they haven't, and they're idiots, but that's their you

1119
00:53:01,400 --> 00:53:04,759
Speaker 1: know whatever. My point is, just like those fights are over,

1120
00:53:05,040 --> 00:53:07,600
Speaker 1: so in a certain sense that culture has been won.

1121
00:53:07,719 --> 00:53:14,000
Speaker 1: Now we're talking about money, future immigration, like actual stuff

1122
00:53:14,360 --> 00:53:16,920
Speaker 1: and on that. First of all, TikTok and all of

1123
00:53:16,920 --> 00:53:18,920
Speaker 1: that is not very well equipped in my opinion, to

1124
00:53:19,000 --> 00:53:20,680
Speaker 1: handle a lot of those issues. And so you know,

1125
00:53:20,840 --> 00:53:23,600
Speaker 1: even TikTok is elevating some of the most anti TERRFF voices,

1126
00:53:23,640 --> 00:53:26,160
Speaker 1: which is very bad for Trump ironically because he's trying

1127
00:53:26,200 --> 00:53:29,400
Speaker 1: to save it. But the vibe right now is not

1128
00:53:29,560 --> 00:53:34,680
Speaker 1: one where Republicans are best poised to win because outside

1129
00:53:34,800 --> 00:53:39,520
Speaker 1: of genuine like maga sycophants, can you find a serious

1130
00:53:39,560 --> 00:53:42,560
Speaker 1: person who is defending the tariffs? No, we got. The

1131
00:53:42,560 --> 00:53:47,560
Speaker 1: closest we got was Oron and Orange. Yeah, yeah, exactly.

1132
00:53:47,640 --> 00:53:50,160
Speaker 2: He just he doesn't want to, you know, completely throw

1133
00:53:50,239 --> 00:53:51,479
Speaker 2: terrorists under the bus, right.

1134
00:53:51,400 --> 00:53:53,799
Speaker 3: But that's all he got very clear. This is not

1135
00:53:53,920 --> 00:53:55,239
Speaker 3: the way orn Cass would have done.

1136
00:53:55,280 --> 00:53:57,759
Speaker 1: No, yeah exactly. So you have no serious when you

1137
00:53:57,800 --> 00:54:00,840
Speaker 1: have we have nothing like that. Somebody can really articulate

1138
00:54:00,880 --> 00:54:03,680
Speaker 1: your case all that well, And then this whole trends

1139
00:54:03,760 --> 00:54:07,000
Speaker 1: and pronoun stuff, it's just so like it almost feels

1140
00:54:07,000 --> 00:54:10,040
Speaker 1: like a bygone era. You're fighting on very different grounds.

1141
00:54:10,120 --> 00:54:10,319
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1142
00:54:10,320 --> 00:54:12,960
Speaker 2: Well, and if you think about I mean, millennials are

1143
00:54:12,960 --> 00:54:17,319
Speaker 2: the most left wing generation like maybe in history, and

1144
00:54:17,360 --> 00:54:20,400
Speaker 2: you think about what were their formative experiences. It was

1145
00:54:20,440 --> 00:54:24,200
Speaker 2: the Iraq War, and it was the Great Recession. You know,

1146
00:54:24,239 --> 00:54:27,320
Speaker 2: it was people coming out of college to an economic

1147
00:54:27,440 --> 00:54:31,120
Speaker 2: catastrophe and the way that set that set the entire

1148
00:54:31,200 --> 00:54:36,080
Speaker 2: generation back significantly in terms of being able to achieve

1149
00:54:36,160 --> 00:54:38,640
Speaker 2: the milestones that their parents had been able to achieve,

1150
00:54:38,760 --> 00:54:41,560
Speaker 2: you know, family and being able to get married and

1151
00:54:41,600 --> 00:54:43,640
Speaker 2: being able to buy a house. Those sorts of things

1152
00:54:43,880 --> 00:54:47,440
Speaker 2: were all pushed into the future because of the economic

1153
00:54:47,480 --> 00:54:50,120
Speaker 2: calamity that met millennials when they were you know, just

1154
00:54:50,480 --> 00:54:53,400
Speaker 2: coming into the workforce and graduating from college, et cetera.

1155
00:54:53,560 --> 00:54:56,480
Speaker 2: And so if you have a similar dynamic with gen Z,

1156
00:54:56,640 --> 00:54:58,200
Speaker 2: I don't think they're going to be in love with

1157
00:54:58,239 --> 00:55:01,160
Speaker 2: the party that is in power while all of that

1158
00:55:01,280 --> 00:55:01,800
Speaker 2: is happening.

1159
00:55:04,480 --> 00:55:06,120
Speaker 3: Let's go and shift to terroristor.

1160
00:55:06,120 --> 00:55:10,520
Speaker 2: We have some new new news this morning about China's retaliation.

1161
00:55:10,960 --> 00:55:13,319
Speaker 2: They have halted all gone and put this up on

1162
00:55:13,320 --> 00:55:18,120
Speaker 2: the screen. They have halted all shipments of Boeing products.

1163
00:55:18,200 --> 00:55:22,480
Speaker 2: They're ordering Boeing jet delivery to be halted as the

1164
00:55:22,520 --> 00:55:25,160
Speaker 2: trade war expands. Boeing I saw it was down on

1165
00:55:25,239 --> 00:55:28,280
Speaker 2: this news and before we jumped to the auto piece saga,

1166
00:55:28,320 --> 00:55:30,160
Speaker 2: why don't you just go ahead and break down what

1167
00:55:30,200 --> 00:55:31,480
Speaker 2: you see as significant about this.

1168
00:55:31,640 --> 00:55:35,480
Speaker 1: Well advanced aerospace manufacturing and air that was one of

1169
00:55:35,560 --> 00:55:38,360
Speaker 1: the gold standards where the United States still had somewhat

1170
00:55:38,440 --> 00:55:41,000
Speaker 1: of a leg up. The Chinese over the last decade

1171
00:55:41,160 --> 00:55:45,680
Speaker 1: have pumped billions and billions of dollars into being able

1172
00:55:45,719 --> 00:55:48,240
Speaker 1: to develop their own competitor to Airbus and to Boeing.

1173
00:55:48,440 --> 00:55:51,680
Speaker 1: They don't want their airline or aerospace industry to be

1174
00:55:51,800 --> 00:55:55,480
Speaker 1: reliant on US supply chains and design specifically, So the

1175
00:55:55,520 --> 00:55:59,239
Speaker 1: reduction in Boeing is two things. First of all, as

1176
00:55:59,239 --> 00:56:02,200
Speaker 1: of twenty twenty five, I quote, China accounts for twenty

1177
00:56:02,239 --> 00:56:06,040
Speaker 1: to twenty five percent of Boeing's global aircraft deliveries, So

1178
00:56:06,200 --> 00:56:09,000
Speaker 1: the flagship United States aerospace company just took a twenty

1179
00:56:09,000 --> 00:56:12,080
Speaker 1: five percent haircut on its overall delivery of corporate jets.

1180
00:56:12,080 --> 00:56:14,880
Speaker 1: So that's number one. Number two is that the Airbus

1181
00:56:15,000 --> 00:56:18,200
Speaker 1: stock is soaring right now, which further means that Airbus

1182
00:56:18,200 --> 00:56:22,480
Speaker 1: the major European competitor and frankly much better safety record.

1183
00:56:22,480 --> 00:56:24,279
Speaker 1: Can we all admit that in the last decade or

1184
00:56:24,320 --> 00:56:27,560
Speaker 1: so is one that's going to be the major beneficiary. Meanwhile,

1185
00:56:27,600 --> 00:56:30,399
Speaker 1: the Chinese are also going to be pumping significant, even

1186
00:56:30,520 --> 00:56:34,919
Speaker 1: more amounts of the technology development into their industry at home.

1187
00:56:35,000 --> 00:56:37,920
Speaker 1: So this is an alignment against the United States. This

1188
00:56:38,000 --> 00:56:40,479
Speaker 1: is part of why I'm so upset about the quote

1189
00:56:40,480 --> 00:56:43,960
Speaker 1: implementation of all of these tariffs. In an ideal tariff regime,

1190
00:56:44,200 --> 00:56:49,240
Speaker 1: we want Boeing to thrive. Boeing should be the flagship

1191
00:56:49,480 --> 00:56:52,200
Speaker 1: of America's industry in the way that it was in

1192
00:56:52,239 --> 00:56:54,680
Speaker 1: the nineteen forties and all the way through the nineteen seventies,

1193
00:56:54,680 --> 00:56:58,920
Speaker 1: before deregulation and combination and stock buybacks and all of

1194
00:56:58,920 --> 00:57:01,000
Speaker 1: that other it was a goal standard. It was like

1195
00:57:01,080 --> 00:57:04,080
Speaker 1: something that everyone could aspire to from a jobs perspective

1196
00:57:04,120 --> 00:57:06,520
Speaker 1: and producing and this is the best thing, the most

1197
00:57:06,560 --> 00:57:09,600
Speaker 1: important in the best products. Already we've moved away from that,

1198
00:57:10,280 --> 00:57:13,040
Speaker 1: but despite legacy, of course, they're still able to develop

1199
00:57:13,080 --> 00:57:15,479
Speaker 1: and to pump out quite a few to be cut

1200
00:57:15,520 --> 00:57:18,000
Speaker 1: off in the interim. There is no plan by the

1201
00:57:18,000 --> 00:57:20,920
Speaker 1: government today to save Boeing. And look, I get it.

1202
00:57:20,960 --> 00:57:23,040
Speaker 1: You know, people are animist towards Boeing. We've talked about

1203
00:57:23,040 --> 00:57:25,320
Speaker 1: the whistleblowers, et cetera. We can still reform. It's still

1204
00:57:25,400 --> 00:57:28,240
Speaker 1: very important. We need an aerospace company. Can we all

1205
00:57:28,280 --> 00:57:30,680
Speaker 1: admit that we need to fly people. You know, we

1206
00:57:30,720 --> 00:57:33,160
Speaker 1: can't be reliant on the Europeans and on the Brazilians

1207
00:57:33,360 --> 00:57:35,280
Speaker 1: to be shipping US jets that are flying us all

1208
00:57:35,280 --> 00:57:37,919
Speaker 1: over our country. Not possible in terms of any sort

1209
00:57:37,920 --> 00:57:41,000
Speaker 1: of defense industrial base. So this is the exact scenario

1210
00:57:41,200 --> 00:57:44,960
Speaker 1: where Boeing flagship American advanced manufacturing, the exact type of

1211
00:57:45,000 --> 00:57:47,760
Speaker 1: industry is taking a haircut as a result of the tariff,

1212
00:57:47,880 --> 00:57:50,760
Speaker 1: with no plan to actually help Boeing do anything in

1213
00:57:50,760 --> 00:57:51,160
Speaker 1: the future.

1214
00:57:51,200 --> 00:57:51,680
Speaker 3: And it's awesome.

1215
00:57:51,720 --> 00:57:52,880
Speaker 1: That's the problem that we have.

1216
00:57:53,080 --> 00:57:55,640
Speaker 2: And China gets kind of kills you birds with one

1217
00:57:55,640 --> 00:57:58,080
Speaker 2: stone here because not only do they hobble a critical

1218
00:57:58,160 --> 00:58:01,600
Speaker 2: industry for us, but they also bolster the Europeans at

1219
00:58:01,600 --> 00:58:04,040
Speaker 2: a time when you know, again, if you were going

1220
00:58:04,080 --> 00:58:06,160
Speaker 2: to do this intelligently and you were going to try

1221
00:58:06,160 --> 00:58:08,560
Speaker 2: to go directly at China, you would want to have

1222
00:58:08,600 --> 00:58:11,200
Speaker 2: the world on your side. You would rather than being

1223
00:58:11,240 --> 00:58:13,680
Speaker 2: out there insulting people and throwing tarras all around at

1224
00:58:13,680 --> 00:58:16,520
Speaker 2: everybody across the board, et cetera. And so this is

1225
00:58:16,560 --> 00:58:20,400
Speaker 2: an opportunity also for China to give the Europeans something

1226
00:58:20,400 --> 00:58:23,720
Speaker 2: that is beneficial for them as well. At the same time,

1227
00:58:23,760 --> 00:58:27,200
Speaker 2: the tariff roller coaster is far from over. President Trump now,

1228
00:58:27,480 --> 00:58:31,200
Speaker 2: in addition to the exemptions of various high tech things

1229
00:58:31,200 --> 00:58:34,840
Speaker 2: that benefit like Apple and Nvidia, now he's also considering

1230
00:58:34,960 --> 00:58:38,280
Speaker 2: some possible exemptions with regard to the auto terrists.

1231
00:58:38,320 --> 00:58:39,560
Speaker 3: Let's go ahead and listen to that.

1232
00:58:40,000 --> 00:58:42,600
Speaker 5: So President Trump says that car makers might need a

1233
00:58:42,600 --> 00:58:45,000
Speaker 5: little bit more time. When he was asked about any

1234
00:58:45,120 --> 00:58:48,400
Speaker 5: potential exemptions coming in the future, he added that he's

1235
00:58:48,440 --> 00:58:50,760
Speaker 5: looking at something to help the car companies where they're

1236
00:58:50,800 --> 00:58:54,000
Speaker 5: switching parts that were made in Canada and Mexico to

1237
00:58:54,120 --> 00:58:56,200
Speaker 5: the US. Of course, a big push of President Trump's

1238
00:58:56,280 --> 00:58:59,480
Speaker 5: terrrist plan is to reshore production. But that's been particularly

1239
00:58:59,560 --> 00:59:02,520
Speaker 5: difficult four car makers were, particularly when we're looking at

1240
00:59:02,600 --> 00:59:06,560
Speaker 5: the USMCA Complyiant Goods North America trade between Canada and Mexico,

1241
00:59:06,800 --> 00:59:11,080
Speaker 5: considering that car parts passed between the border so many times.

1242
00:59:11,120 --> 00:59:14,720
Speaker 5: So one, we have the current Canada and Mexico tariffs

1243
00:59:14,760 --> 00:59:17,760
Speaker 5: that are in place, but also those auto specific sector

1244
00:59:17,840 --> 00:59:20,840
Speaker 5: tariffs that went into place last month under Section two

1245
00:59:20,880 --> 00:59:23,120
Speaker 5: thirty two, where we saw a twenty five percent auto

1246
00:59:23,160 --> 00:59:25,560
Speaker 5: tariff across the board. So it does appear that President

1247
00:59:25,560 --> 00:59:28,760
Speaker 5: Trump is opening up a little leeway here potentially for

1248
00:59:28,960 --> 00:59:31,360
Speaker 5: negotiations to get underway. We know that the Big three

1249
00:59:31,360 --> 00:59:34,400
Speaker 5: auto makers in particular, have been lobbying this White House

1250
00:59:34,440 --> 00:59:36,760
Speaker 5: for months. You'll a call during President Trump State of

1251
00:59:36,800 --> 00:59:39,720
Speaker 5: the Union address in February. He had said that they

1252
00:59:39,720 --> 00:59:41,520
Speaker 5: were in his office and they called him. That's when

1253
00:59:41,520 --> 00:59:44,760
Speaker 5: he announced that initial reprieve, but then ended up putting

1254
00:59:44,760 --> 00:59:45,480
Speaker 5: those tariffs on.

1255
00:59:46,160 --> 00:59:48,480
Speaker 2: And so again this shows you the way this works.

1256
00:59:48,640 --> 00:59:50,680
Speaker 2: The Big three automakers, they're able to get him on

1257
00:59:50,680 --> 00:59:52,360
Speaker 2: the phone. They're able to say, hey, this is going

1258
00:59:52,440 --> 00:59:54,840
Speaker 2: to be a freaking disaster for us because these parts

1259
00:59:54,840 --> 00:59:58,200
Speaker 2: across the border multiple times. The cost of a vehicle

1260
00:59:58,280 --> 01:00:01,120
Speaker 2: is going to skyrocket like tens of thousands of dollars

1261
01:00:01,120 --> 01:00:04,000
Speaker 2: if these actually go into place. And so he hears

1262
01:00:04,040 --> 01:00:08,720
Speaker 2: them out and is potentially walking back temporarily some of

1263
01:00:08,760 --> 01:00:11,120
Speaker 2: the Oh but they're not exemption Soccer, don't worry some

1264
01:00:11,160 --> 01:00:12,360
Speaker 2: of the auto tariffs.

1265
01:00:12,520 --> 01:00:16,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is again you know what what's happening. The

1266
01:00:16,440 --> 01:00:19,080
Speaker 1: tariffs are on, they're off, they're twenty percent, they're twenty

1267
01:00:19,120 --> 01:00:21,720
Speaker 1: five percent. Now they're exempted, and maybe they're not exempted.

1268
01:00:21,760 --> 01:00:25,040
Speaker 1: There's the USMCA. They're spent in all time. Nobody has

1269
01:00:25,360 --> 01:00:28,880
Speaker 1: any idea and what most people are doing, and I'm

1270
01:00:28,880 --> 01:00:31,880
Speaker 1: telling you this is obvious. They're just stopping all shipping

1271
01:00:32,160 --> 01:00:35,000
Speaker 1: anything coming to America. They're like, hold it over there

1272
01:00:35,120 --> 01:00:37,280
Speaker 1: and we'll figure it out. Go ahead and put C

1273
01:00:37,480 --> 01:00:39,280
Speaker 1: three please up on the screen so you guys can

1274
01:00:39,320 --> 01:00:41,480
Speaker 1: see this. This is the week over week drop in

1275
01:00:41,560 --> 01:00:45,640
Speaker 1: ocean bookings fifty percent. Overall US imports down sixty four percent,

1276
01:00:45,840 --> 01:00:48,720
Speaker 1: Overall US exports down thirty percent, US imports from China

1277
01:00:48,720 --> 01:00:51,400
Speaker 1: down sixty four percent, US exports from to China down

1278
01:00:51,520 --> 01:00:53,840
Speaker 1: thirty six percent. That's just in a week. Okay, it

1279
01:00:53,920 --> 01:00:57,400
Speaker 1: could fall to one hundred inventory. Does anybody remember this

1280
01:00:57,440 --> 01:01:00,000
Speaker 1: little term called just in time delivery that we all

1281
01:01:00,080 --> 01:01:03,160
Speaker 1: learned about during COVID? Did anything change? Does anyone want

1282
01:01:03,160 --> 01:01:05,640
Speaker 1: to tell me did anything change in the last five years? No,

1283
01:01:05,800 --> 01:01:08,600
Speaker 1: it didn't. It actually got worse. And so what does

1284
01:01:08,640 --> 01:01:11,920
Speaker 1: that mean? It means that we don't have like, we

1285
01:01:11,960 --> 01:01:14,920
Speaker 1: don't have stockpiles. We talked yesterday a lot about rare

1286
01:01:14,960 --> 01:01:17,880
Speaker 1: earth minerals, still a very important conversation. What did we

1287
01:01:17,960 --> 01:01:21,040
Speaker 1: learn from the rare earth mineral discussion is that American companies,

1288
01:01:21,080 --> 01:01:23,680
Speaker 1: basically because they run on a cash on a stock basis,

1289
01:01:23,880 --> 01:01:26,280
Speaker 1: refuse to stock up. We don't have a supply chain,

1290
01:01:26,440 --> 01:01:29,800
Speaker 1: we have no refining ability, we have no ability basically

1291
01:01:29,800 --> 01:01:31,760
Speaker 1: to make up for this in the overnight way that

1292
01:01:31,840 --> 01:01:34,160
Speaker 1: China has cut us off from it. It will obviously

1293
01:01:34,240 --> 01:01:37,280
Speaker 1: have cascading effects throughout our supply chain. A lot of

1294
01:01:37,280 --> 01:01:40,560
Speaker 1: this stuff matters, especially for cars, for batteries. It's a

1295
01:01:40,600 --> 01:01:43,480
Speaker 1: full court press the Chinese. Again, I have to respect

1296
01:01:43,480 --> 01:01:45,800
Speaker 1: them and their competence. They know exactly where to hit

1297
01:01:45,840 --> 01:01:48,439
Speaker 1: us hard. The number one industry we care the most

1298
01:01:48,440 --> 01:01:52,240
Speaker 1: about is aerospace advanced manufacturing. That's like gold standard for

1299
01:01:52,280 --> 01:01:54,560
Speaker 1: the defense industrial base. So what do you do? Screw

1300
01:01:54,600 --> 01:01:58,280
Speaker 1: you Boeing? Before that, semiconductors, make sure you cut off

1301
01:01:58,320 --> 01:02:00,280
Speaker 1: all the minerals that you need. There. Hope the South

1302
01:02:00,320 --> 01:02:02,160
Speaker 1: Koreans and the Japanese can bail us out. From who

1303
01:02:02,240 --> 01:02:04,560
Speaker 1: people I've spoken to, they have stock poles of their own,

1304
01:02:04,600 --> 01:02:06,520
Speaker 1: but they don't necessarily want to sell it to us. Now,

1305
01:02:06,520 --> 01:02:09,160
Speaker 1: what do you do? Semiconductors and then cars? That was

1306
01:02:09,200 --> 01:02:11,880
Speaker 1: the final one for magnets and other things that are necessary.

1307
01:02:12,000 --> 01:02:13,960
Speaker 1: That is a direct attack by the way, at Tesla

1308
01:02:14,000 --> 01:02:16,600
Speaker 1: stock because they need those to be able to build

1309
01:02:16,760 --> 01:02:18,800
Speaker 1: all of the cars that they do here in America.

1310
01:02:18,840 --> 01:02:21,520
Speaker 1: All three of the things are targeting the growth industries,

1311
01:02:21,680 --> 01:02:24,120
Speaker 1: the manufacturing industries, and the exact type of things that

1312
01:02:24,160 --> 01:02:26,200
Speaker 1: we can point to and say, this is how tariffs

1313
01:02:26,240 --> 01:02:28,280
Speaker 1: could be working and could be saving, and that's what

1314
01:02:28,320 --> 01:02:30,680
Speaker 1: they're attacking, and we have no policy right now to

1315
01:02:30,720 --> 01:02:32,280
Speaker 1: actually help any of it on the back end.

1316
01:02:32,280 --> 01:02:35,160
Speaker 3: That's exactly right. So Interestingly, Sean Faint, who's.

1317
01:02:34,960 --> 01:02:37,800
Speaker 2: The head of the United Auto Workers, he has been

1318
01:02:37,840 --> 01:02:43,000
Speaker 2: defending the tariffs. You know, he'll say, I'm not just

1319
01:02:43,080 --> 01:02:45,360
Speaker 2: with regard I think he tries to make it like

1320
01:02:45,440 --> 01:02:49,040
Speaker 2: just with regards to the auto industry. He recently went

1321
01:02:49,120 --> 01:02:52,760
Speaker 2: on MSNBC. It was one of these panel shows where

1322
01:02:52,760 --> 01:02:56,000
Speaker 2: you've got like AlSi Menandez Simone Sanders and Michael Steele

1323
01:02:56,160 --> 01:02:58,720
Speaker 2: I think, and they're all trying to spar with him

1324
01:02:58,880 --> 01:03:01,360
Speaker 2: over his position with regard to these tariffs. Let's go

1325
01:03:01,360 --> 01:03:03,600
Speaker 2: ahead and take a listen, guys, this is C two

1326
01:03:03,760 --> 01:03:05,280
Speaker 2: to a little bit of how that went down.

1327
01:03:05,680 --> 01:03:08,040
Speaker 6: You know, let's talk about the realities of what you know.

1328
01:03:08,040 --> 01:03:09,560
Speaker 6: And this is the thing, you know, I've been reading

1329
01:03:09,600 --> 01:03:11,840
Speaker 6: a lot of this lately. Going back in nineteen ninety two,

1330
01:03:11,880 --> 01:03:12,520
Speaker 6: I voted.

1331
01:03:12,280 --> 01:03:12,880
Speaker 1: For Ross Pero.

1332
01:03:13,600 --> 01:03:15,840
Speaker 6: You know why I voted for Ross PuO for one

1333
01:03:15,880 --> 01:03:18,680
Speaker 6: reason because he was the only candidate that talked about

1334
01:03:18,680 --> 01:03:21,880
Speaker 6: how devastating NAFTA would be to American jobs and to

1335
01:03:22,000 --> 01:03:25,800
Speaker 6: our manufacturing base. And he talked about that giant sucking sound.

1336
01:03:26,120 --> 01:03:27,880
Speaker 6: You know, I've read this book here in the last week.

1337
01:03:27,920 --> 01:03:31,520
Speaker 6: You know, save your job, save our country. Why NAFTA

1338
01:03:31,600 --> 01:03:32,360
Speaker 6: must be stopped.

1339
01:03:32,360 --> 01:03:32,600
Speaker 4: Now.

1340
01:03:32,960 --> 01:03:36,240
Speaker 6: You know what's interesting since then, Ross pro has become

1341
01:03:36,240 --> 01:03:40,200
Speaker 6: a prophet. Since NAFTA was inception in nineteen ninety three,

1342
01:03:40,440 --> 01:03:44,800
Speaker 6: we've lost ninety thousand manufacturing facilities in this country, millions

1343
01:03:44,840 --> 01:03:47,080
Speaker 6: of jobs. And these weren't, you know, low end jobs.

1344
01:03:47,320 --> 01:03:50,880
Speaker 6: These were jobs that paid decent wages, had good benefits.

1345
01:03:50,560 --> 01:03:53,160
Speaker 3: Retirement secualized. I agree with.

1346
01:03:53,040 --> 01:03:55,040
Speaker 1: You, communities, but here's my thing.

1347
01:03:55,160 --> 01:03:57,880
Speaker 3: But here's NAFTA was after was thirty years.

1348
01:03:57,720 --> 01:04:00,360
Speaker 8: Ago the situation that we are dealing with now, and

1349
01:04:00,400 --> 01:04:01,920
Speaker 8: I agree with you. I'm on the side of the

1350
01:04:01,960 --> 01:04:08,360
Speaker 8: folks that said they this did the American workers wrong. Absolutely,

1351
01:04:08,400 --> 01:04:11,280
Speaker 8: But right now we are dealing with the situation where

1352
01:04:11,760 --> 01:04:14,880
Speaker 8: it's not these are blanket tariffs. We are dealing with

1353
01:04:14,960 --> 01:04:17,400
Speaker 8: situation where manufacturing is not going to come back in

1354
01:04:17,440 --> 01:04:22,040
Speaker 8: two weeks. So what how I'm just I'm really struggling

1355
01:04:22,040 --> 01:04:26,280
Speaker 8: to figure out to understand how UAW has aligned itself

1356
01:04:26,280 --> 01:04:27,080
Speaker 8: with Trump on this.

1357
01:04:27,560 --> 01:04:30,800
Speaker 6: So, first off, NAFTA is still causing us to lose

1358
01:04:30,880 --> 01:04:33,720
Speaker 6: jobs in this country. Our broken trade system is still

1359
01:04:33,760 --> 01:04:36,200
Speaker 6: causing us to lose jobs in this country, and no

1360
01:04:36,240 --> 01:04:40,120
Speaker 6: one from either party has been willing to even address

1361
01:04:40,160 --> 01:04:42,240
Speaker 6: the issue for thirty plus years.

1362
01:04:42,240 --> 01:04:43,040
Speaker 1: That's the first thing.

1363
01:04:44,040 --> 01:04:46,760
Speaker 6: And we support tariffs as a tool, a tool in

1364
01:04:46,800 --> 01:04:49,480
Speaker 6: the toolbox, not the end all be all. We got

1365
01:04:49,480 --> 01:04:52,160
Speaker 6: to fix the broken trade system, but tariffs are a

1366
01:04:52,200 --> 01:04:54,800
Speaker 6: motivator to make these companies do the right thing. When

1367
01:04:54,800 --> 01:04:58,120
Speaker 6: we're talking auto, I can't speak for you know, penguins

1368
01:04:58,120 --> 01:05:01,200
Speaker 6: and all this other crazy stuff going on, but I'll

1369
01:05:01,240 --> 01:05:04,440
Speaker 6: speak to what I know, and you know, when we

1370
01:05:04,480 --> 01:05:07,480
Speaker 6: talk about parts, there's an exclusion for parts sector right now.

1371
01:05:07,560 --> 01:05:10,840
Speaker 6: The reason there's this exclusion is because we've been talking

1372
01:05:10,840 --> 01:05:14,000
Speaker 6: with the administration about how to make these tariffs work,

1373
01:05:14,240 --> 01:05:15,720
Speaker 6: and they've been working with us on that.

1374
01:05:16,200 --> 01:05:18,760
Speaker 2: It's frustrating to me watching this exchange. I would love

1375
01:05:18,840 --> 01:05:20,640
Speaker 2: if Sean Fayn would come on the show. I'd love

1376
01:05:20,640 --> 01:05:23,280
Speaker 2: to have a conversation with that. I'm sympathetic. There's nothing

1377
01:05:23,320 --> 01:05:26,120
Speaker 2: that he says, though, that is incorrect about NATA and

1378
01:05:26,120 --> 01:05:28,880
Speaker 2: about its impacts specifically on the auto industry, about the

1379
01:05:28,880 --> 01:05:31,840
Speaker 2: fact that these terrible trade deals continue to harm American workers.

1380
01:05:31,880 --> 01:05:34,200
Speaker 2: All of that is completely accurate. The question is, then,

1381
01:05:34,240 --> 01:05:35,760
Speaker 2: what are you going to do about it? And if

1382
01:05:35,800 --> 01:05:39,200
Speaker 2: you're just doing this chaotic terrorist are on, they're off,

1383
01:05:39,240 --> 01:05:40,919
Speaker 2: They're across the board, They're not across the board.

1384
01:05:40,920 --> 01:05:42,160
Speaker 3: One hundred and forty five percent for.

1385
01:05:42,240 --> 01:05:46,439
Speaker 2: China, yes auto, no auto, et cetera. It's only going

1386
01:05:46,480 --> 01:05:50,360
Speaker 2: to make the situation for American workers worse across the board,

1387
01:05:50,480 --> 01:05:52,400
Speaker 2: and the auto industry is one where you know, if

1388
01:05:52,440 --> 01:05:54,320
Speaker 2: Trump was just targeting, like, Okay, we're going to restore

1389
01:05:54,360 --> 01:05:55,960
Speaker 2: the auto industry, here's how we're going to do it,

1390
01:05:56,000 --> 01:05:58,600
Speaker 2: and it was intelligent and coupled with industrial policy as

1391
01:05:58,600 --> 01:06:01,600
Speaker 2: we've talked about it. I supported Trump's tariffs on the

1392
01:06:01,640 --> 01:06:03,960
Speaker 2: first term. I supported Biden's tariffs in his term. I

1393
01:06:03,960 --> 01:06:06,600
Speaker 2: would support something like that that is not what we're

1394
01:06:06,600 --> 01:06:10,040
Speaker 2: talking about. So I don't think you can afford in

1395
01:06:10,120 --> 01:06:14,400
Speaker 2: this time to ignore the rest of what is going

1396
01:06:14,440 --> 01:06:16,720
Speaker 2: on with these tariffs, because they are going to hurt

1397
01:06:16,960 --> 01:06:19,560
Speaker 2: that they are going to be a regressive tax on

1398
01:06:19,640 --> 01:06:22,880
Speaker 2: working class people. They're going to hurt workers much more

1399
01:06:22,920 --> 01:06:25,120
Speaker 2: than they help workers. And the other thing is, you know,

1400
01:06:25,120 --> 01:06:27,640
Speaker 2: if you listen to Trump talk and I get into

1401
01:06:27,680 --> 01:06:29,880
Speaker 2: some of this day in my monologue, like he doesn't

1402
01:06:29,920 --> 01:06:34,520
Speaker 2: want to restore the nineteen fifties height of postwar manufacturing.

1403
01:06:34,520 --> 01:06:37,120
Speaker 2: And at that time you had about fifty percent unionization

1404
01:06:37,320 --> 01:06:39,760
Speaker 2: in terms of factory workers, so you had a lot

1405
01:06:39,760 --> 01:06:42,280
Speaker 2: of labor power, you had an expanding social safety net,

1406
01:06:42,520 --> 01:06:45,760
Speaker 2: you had a post war global economy where the US

1407
01:06:45,880 --> 01:06:47,680
Speaker 2: was kind of the only game in town because so

1408
01:06:47,680 --> 01:06:49,840
Speaker 2: many other countries had been completely devastated.

1409
01:06:50,080 --> 01:06:52,040
Speaker 3: But that's not what he's looking to restore.

1410
01:06:52,080 --> 01:06:53,480
Speaker 2: And you can tell that by the fact that he's

1411
01:06:53,560 --> 01:06:55,640
Speaker 2: a union buster, and by that doge is gutting the

1412
01:06:55,640 --> 01:06:59,160
Speaker 2: government so that it can't regulate big business. He wants

1413
01:06:59,200 --> 01:07:00,600
Speaker 2: to go back, and he talks about this to the

1414
01:07:00,640 --> 01:07:02,360
Speaker 2: guilded age. He wants to go back to the time

1415
01:07:02,400 --> 01:07:05,680
Speaker 2: before there were labor regulations, before there were child labor regulations.

1416
01:07:05,920 --> 01:07:08,400
Speaker 2: When you know there it was before the progressive era,

1417
01:07:08,480 --> 01:07:11,720
Speaker 2: when you really have a large union movement and labor power,

1418
01:07:12,000 --> 01:07:13,920
Speaker 2: and before there was an income tax.

1419
01:07:14,240 --> 01:07:15,800
Speaker 3: That's what he wants to go back to.

1420
01:07:16,360 --> 01:07:19,240
Speaker 2: And you know, these sort of like you know, sweatshop jobs,

1421
01:07:19,240 --> 01:07:22,040
Speaker 2: because there's nothing inherent about factory jobs that make them

1422
01:07:22,040 --> 01:07:25,440
Speaker 2: good jobs. It was the particular moment in time, and

1423
01:07:25,480 --> 01:07:28,440
Speaker 2: also the fact that we had this very large union movement.

1424
01:07:28,640 --> 01:07:29,640
Speaker 3: You have to have all of.

1425
01:07:29,560 --> 01:07:31,680
Speaker 2: Those pieces if you're actually going to restore something good

1426
01:07:31,720 --> 01:07:34,720
Speaker 2: for American workers. Trump has no interest in any of that.

1427
01:07:35,040 --> 01:07:37,840
Speaker 2: He wants to go in the complete opposite direction. So

1428
01:07:38,040 --> 01:07:40,480
Speaker 2: while listen, I get where Sean Fin's coming from, Like

1429
01:07:40,640 --> 01:07:42,720
Speaker 2: I you know, I've seen him be very critical of

1430
01:07:42,720 --> 01:07:47,800
Speaker 2: Trump in other areas. I understand his mindset, but this

1431
01:07:48,280 --> 01:07:51,520
Speaker 2: from Trump is going to completely go in the opposite

1432
01:07:51,520 --> 01:07:53,320
Speaker 2: direction of what you would want from American workers. And

1433
01:07:53,320 --> 01:07:55,800
Speaker 2: we already know because we've seen Stalantis already do layoffs

1434
01:07:55,800 --> 01:07:56,760
Speaker 2: as a consequence of this.

1435
01:07:57,200 --> 01:07:59,919
Speaker 1: The difficulty for him is he has to support tariffs conceptually,

1436
01:08:00,160 --> 01:08:02,640
Speaker 1: and look, I get it, like you said, in the

1437
01:08:02,640 --> 01:08:05,400
Speaker 1: position that he's in a MSNBC people who are totally

1438
01:08:05,400 --> 01:08:07,640
Speaker 1: against tariffs, and he's like, no, that's not what I'm saying.

1439
01:08:07,680 --> 01:08:10,040
Speaker 1: What I'm calling for is X, Y and Z tariff

1440
01:08:10,080 --> 01:08:13,240
Speaker 1: combined with this policy. The difficulty that you run into

1441
01:08:13,320 --> 01:08:15,560
Speaker 1: is that with the chaos of the Trump administration now

1442
01:08:15,800 --> 01:08:18,000
Speaker 1: at this point, you never know whether a tariff is

1443
01:08:18,000 --> 01:08:19,960
Speaker 1: on or not. You literally And the funny thing is

1444
01:08:20,000 --> 01:08:22,439
Speaker 1: even the automakers don't know. They have to call their

1445
01:08:22,479 --> 01:08:24,760
Speaker 1: lawyers and be like, what's the guidance from the White

1446
01:08:24,760 --> 01:08:26,519
Speaker 1: House today? And then the next day Trump comes out like,

1447
01:08:26,600 --> 01:08:29,760
Speaker 1: actually there's no exceptions, and you're like, oh, okay, I mean,

1448
01:08:30,000 --> 01:08:31,360
Speaker 1: how can we do business?

1449
01:08:31,520 --> 01:08:31,800
Speaker 3: How is it?

1450
01:08:31,960 --> 01:08:32,800
Speaker 1: Or employee people?

1451
01:08:32,880 --> 01:08:35,000
Speaker 2: How is the domestic auto market going to be if

1452
01:08:35,040 --> 01:08:37,240
Speaker 2: we're in a recession? Right, so how's that going to

1453
01:08:37,280 --> 01:08:39,240
Speaker 2: be for you know, workers and layoffs?

1454
01:08:39,320 --> 01:08:41,040
Speaker 3: And you know what.

1455
01:08:41,000 --> 01:08:43,240
Speaker 2: Level of investment in the US do you think that

1456
01:08:43,280 --> 01:08:46,120
Speaker 2: you typically get during a recession, which is what he

1457
01:08:46,240 --> 01:08:50,000
Speaker 2: is actively courting and what we may already be tipping

1458
01:08:50,040 --> 01:08:51,880
Speaker 2: into based on some of the estimates.

1459
01:08:51,960 --> 01:08:55,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean O nine killed GM and still they

1460
01:08:55,280 --> 01:08:58,400
Speaker 1: destroyed the Oh it really never came back. Ford. Ford,

1461
01:08:58,600 --> 01:09:00,240
Speaker 1: you got to hand it to him. They they were

1462
01:09:00,240 --> 01:09:02,639
Speaker 1: able to climb out, and they never took any government money.

1463
01:09:02,680 --> 01:09:04,360
Speaker 1: I remember reading a really good book about how they

1464
01:09:04,400 --> 01:09:06,840
Speaker 1: were able to handle it. But they're the exception and

1465
01:09:06,880 --> 01:09:09,559
Speaker 1: they're not the role. The US auto industry really never

1466
01:09:09,600 --> 01:09:11,320
Speaker 1: recovered from that. And then there was that whole cash

1467
01:09:11,360 --> 01:09:14,559
Speaker 1: for clunkers thing. They had destroyed these car market. It

1468
01:09:14,600 --> 01:09:15,200
Speaker 1: was a disaster.

1469
01:09:15,320 --> 01:09:16,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, all bad.

1470
01:09:16,160 --> 01:09:18,040
Speaker 2: The bail out was very unpopular at the time, but

1471
01:09:18,080 --> 01:09:20,880
Speaker 2: then it ended up being like, was one of those

1472
01:09:20,920 --> 01:09:23,080
Speaker 2: things that the Obama administration kind of took a risk

1473
01:09:23,160 --> 01:09:26,400
Speaker 2: on because when it was being right, when it was

1474
01:09:26,439 --> 01:09:29,439
Speaker 2: being proposed, it was actually really profoundly unpopular, but they

1475
01:09:29,439 --> 01:09:31,240
Speaker 2: did it anyway to save those jobs. And it ended

1476
01:09:31,320 --> 01:09:33,040
Speaker 2: up being obviously the right call.

1477
01:09:33,200 --> 01:09:35,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know, I still think there should have been.

1478
01:09:36,120 --> 01:09:38,240
Speaker 1: I don't know, just if you look at the net

1479
01:09:38,240 --> 01:09:42,559
Speaker 1: effect GM and Stilantis, like Ford has minutes of actual cheap,

1480
01:09:42,600 --> 01:09:45,439
Speaker 1: decent success, GM is Stilantis. Yes, they paid the money

1481
01:09:45,439 --> 01:09:47,679
Speaker 1: back and all that, but like in terms of saving

1482
01:09:47,720 --> 01:09:49,479
Speaker 1: the jobs in the industrial base and all, that didn't

1483
01:09:49,520 --> 01:09:51,679
Speaker 1: really happen. I mean, they did close a lot of plants,

1484
01:09:51,920 --> 01:09:53,439
Speaker 1: they closed them in the interim. But you know, in

1485
01:09:53,479 --> 01:09:55,920
Speaker 1: a five year overall period, a lot of those jobs

1486
01:09:56,000 --> 01:09:58,120
Speaker 1: did get eventually outsourced. A lot of them went to

1487
01:09:58,160 --> 01:10:01,800
Speaker 1: Mexico and or to China. Glow mobilization just ate away

1488
01:10:02,120 --> 01:10:03,720
Speaker 1: at it and at the and the worst part is

1489
01:10:03,760 --> 01:10:06,360
Speaker 1: they don't create the good products like they just their

1490
01:10:06,400 --> 01:10:10,160
Speaker 1: products are bad even today. And you can see, if

1491
01:10:10,160 --> 01:10:13,200
Speaker 1: you know, with respect to all these other car manufacturers

1492
01:10:13,520 --> 01:10:15,120
Speaker 1: around the world, like they laugh at them.

1493
01:10:15,160 --> 01:10:17,879
Speaker 3: So it's not about been such a calamity for Michigan.

1494
01:10:17,920 --> 01:10:19,880
Speaker 1: I'm not disagreed. I think it was right to save

1495
01:10:19,920 --> 01:10:22,720
Speaker 1: the job, but there should have been a much more

1496
01:10:22,720 --> 01:10:25,760
Speaker 1: conservative effort to make sure that they're globally competitive, and

1497
01:10:25,840 --> 01:10:28,120
Speaker 1: it just didn't happen. And now we are where we

1498
01:10:28,200 --> 01:10:31,280
Speaker 1: are today, some fifteen years later, where you have by

1499
01:10:31,360 --> 01:10:33,800
Speaker 1: d Shaomi, you all these other people GM, and still

1500
01:10:33,840 --> 01:10:35,880
Speaker 1: they can't they can't make an electric car that's decent.

1501
01:10:36,040 --> 01:10:37,800
Speaker 1: To save their life. They've make it for like ninety

1502
01:10:37,800 --> 01:10:39,880
Speaker 1: thousand dollars a piece of shit. You know, nobody would

1503
01:10:39,880 --> 01:10:42,479
Speaker 1: ben to buy it. And so yeah, we're in a

1504
01:10:42,479 --> 01:10:44,680
Speaker 1: tough spot here in our in our car industry. It's

1505
01:10:44,680 --> 01:10:45,040
Speaker 1: not good