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Speaker 1: Welcome to zero. I am Akshatrati. This week, back to

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Speaker 1: the future. Trump is back in the White House. What

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Speaker 1: will the next four years hold when it comes to

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Speaker 1: energy and climate policy. There are many ways to answer

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Speaker 1: that question. One is to look at recent history for

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Speaker 1: some clues. Trump began his first term by pulling the

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Speaker 1: US out of the Paris Agreement. He's done that again,

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Speaker 1: and as he did in his first term, he's once

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Speaker 1: again taken aim at environmental regulations, but this time he

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Speaker 1: is going further, declaring a national Energy Emergency and promising

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Speaker 1: that the US will double down on domestic fossil fuel production.

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Speaker 2: Certainly feel deja vu. We have heard this, but the

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Speaker 2: circum stances they're very different.

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Speaker 1: This week, as we've been thinking about the Biden to

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Speaker 1: Trump transition, we thought about traveling further back in time

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Speaker 1: to replay what took place at the White House more

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Speaker 1: than forty years ago, when Jimmy Carter's term ended and

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Speaker 1: the new administration, led by Ronald Reagan promised to remake America.

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Speaker 2: They were absolutely committed to the idea that the US

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Speaker 2: needed to increase its production of oil, gas, and coal,

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Speaker 2: and that that was indispensable for national security and for

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Speaker 2: the economy, and any set of policies that got in

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Speaker 2: the way of doing that seemed like they were designed

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Speaker 2: to weaken America.

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Speaker 1: That's Jonathan Lash. He was an environmental lawyer in the

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Speaker 1: eighties and wrote a book about Reagan's environmental policies called

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Speaker 1: Season of Spoils. He spoke with Zero's producer might Lely

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Speaker 1: Raw about how Reagan right away set about reversing the

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Speaker 1: Carter administration's positions, particularly on energy and the environment.

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Speaker 2: He wanted smaller government, less regulation. He wanted to encourage industry.

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Speaker 2: He thought the environmental problems have been greatly exaggerated. The

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Speaker 2: people he brought in were ideological about their opposition to

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Speaker 2: government intervention, and they began to weed out scientists in

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Speaker 2: advisory committees who they thought were too environmentally inclined and

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Speaker 2: bring in industry scientists instead. They wanted to get the

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Speaker 2: answers that satisfied their political objectives.

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Speaker 1: It all sounds a bit familiar, right, but whether it's

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Speaker 1: Reagan then or Trump now, Lash says that there are

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Speaker 1: limits to a president's power.

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Speaker 2: When we hold an election, we change the people who

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Speaker 2: are charged with carrying out the laws, but the laws

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Speaker 2: don't change, and there was this sense then which I

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Speaker 2: see now as well, that somehow, having won the election,

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Speaker 2: the decks are cleared. Everything is subject to change to

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Speaker 2: reflect the new policies. If they are able to pass

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Speaker 2: legislation that changes the law, that's the way it works.

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Speaker 2: If the public supports that the law can be changed.

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Speaker 2: That isn't what happened in his first termament office, and

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Speaker 2: it isn't what happened when Reagan was elected president.

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Speaker 1: And so with a new Trump era upon us, I

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Speaker 1: wanted to hear more about what lessons presidential history might

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Speaker 1: hold for the next four years. Someone who has studied

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Speaker 1: these parallels in depth is Paul Saban. He's a professor

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Speaker 1: of history at Yale an author of several books about oil, environmentalism,

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Speaker 1: and the Reagan Ears. We talked about whether Bidenomics will

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Speaker 1: have staying power, what we can learn from the US's

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Speaker 1: long running commitment to fossil fuels, and how Trump might

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Speaker 1: be able to go further than Reagan did. Paul, Welcome

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Speaker 1: to the show.

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Speaker 3: Thank you so much for having me.

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Speaker 1: Now, in conversations I've had with policy experts and thinkers

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Speaker 1: in the last few months, it seems like there are

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Speaker 1: two strands of thinking that have emerged. There's one camp

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Speaker 1: of people who say, when it comes to the direction

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Speaker 1: of travel on things like decarbonization, it doesn't matter all

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Speaker 1: that much who is in the White House. If the

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Speaker 1: economy is moving in that direction, the momentum will continue.

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Speaker 1: And then there's another camp of people who say it

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Speaker 1: matters a lot who's in the White House because the

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Speaker 1: executive branch can put in a lot of rules in

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Speaker 1: place and set the tone for what happens. When you

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Speaker 1: look at the transition that took place this week from

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Speaker 1: a Biden and minister to a Trumpet administration, how momentous

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Speaker 1: is it from the perspective of energy and climate policy.

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Speaker 3: Well, again, thanks so much for having me on and

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Speaker 3: give me a chance to give some historical perspective on

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Speaker 3: these energy and climate transitions. I think that you have

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Speaker 3: to see it, as you know, truly momentous. And I'm

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Speaker 3: one of those who sees the energy and climate space

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Speaker 3: as being a political and economic one and not just

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Speaker 3: one that has economic forces sort of unrolling without being

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Speaker 3: guided by institutional structures. And I think that you know,

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Speaker 3: we're likely to see a dramatic reversal of many federal

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Speaker 3: policies that have been put in place in the last

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Speaker 3: four years that have been trying to accelerate an energy transition.

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Speaker 3: So certainly there are underlying trends, you know, and the

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Speaker 3: dropping cost of solar power, wind power, things like that.

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Speaker 3: New technologies and batteries have been really remarkable advances. But

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Speaker 3: those are taking place in the context as well of

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Speaker 3: a political and legal structure that I think has a

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Speaker 3: lot of impact on their development.

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Speaker 1: So is it true then that Bidenomics, which is this

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Speaker 1: idea that you're going to try and put in place

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Speaker 1: things like the Inflation Reduction Act, the bipartisan infrastructure build

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Speaker 1: that will bring meaningful jobs back into the country. Do

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Speaker 1: you think Bidenomics just becomes a footnote because of what

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Speaker 1: Trump's likely to do.

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Speaker 3: You know, that's just going to be a fascinating issue

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Speaker 3: to follow as we go forward. I mean, one of

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Speaker 3: the really distinctive aspects of the Inflation Reduction Act has

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Speaker 3: been the location of where these investments have gone, and

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Speaker 3: many of them have really gone into Republican districts in

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Speaker 3: the South, and I think it's still unknown, you know,

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Speaker 3: what's going to happen with that in terms of the

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Speaker 3: narrow majorities in the House of Representatives in particular as

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Speaker 3: to whether you know, Republican representatives from those districts are

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Speaker 3: going to prioritize defending these new factories, these new jobs

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Speaker 3: in their districts, or whether there will be sort of

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Speaker 3: strong armed into prioritizing shifting money into you know, tax cuts,

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Speaker 3: and that's going to be most likely, you know, one

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Speaker 3: of the major debates of the coming year. And so

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Speaker 3: it's really an experiment in political economy to see whether,

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Speaker 3: you know, the power of local jobs and industries can

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Speaker 3: outweigh this national climate that's pushing for sort of a

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Speaker 3: national policy newly focused on tax cuts.

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Speaker 1: So let's take a historical lens to see if we

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Speaker 1: can learn anything about what's coming under this Trump administration. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: recently there's been a lot written about President Jimmy Carter's

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Speaker 1: life and legacy. He recently passed away, but also he

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Speaker 1: sort of foreshadows a little bit of what Biden Trump

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Speaker 1: looks like.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 1: One thing that gets repeated is Jimmy Carter installed solar

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Speaker 1: panels on the rooftop and then Reagan removed them. There's

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Speaker 1: also the fact that Carter to some extent got booted

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Speaker 1: out because of inflation issues, just like Biden, also in

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Speaker 1: anticipation of what his successes might do. Carter issued more

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Speaker 1: than one seventy what are called Midnight regulations just before

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Speaker 1: Reagan took office, and Biden has done I don't know

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Speaker 1: if it's one seventy but quite a bit. Are there

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Speaker 1: lessons from the transition from Carter to Reagan that can

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Speaker 1: give us some insight into what we're going to see

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Speaker 1: now from a Biden to a Trump.

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Speaker 3: Great question, and I think it's really fascinating to look

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Speaker 3: back at the car to Reagan transition, and it's think

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Speaker 3: it's important to put in an even larger, broader context

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Speaker 3: of sort of a back and forth that's been going

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Speaker 3: on in American politics really for more than a century

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Speaker 3: between a more developmentalist oriented governance of the Department of

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Speaker 3: the Interior and other agencies that might have strong ties

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Speaker 3: to Western political leaders and Western states, and a more

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Speaker 3: Eastern centered managerial approach. And this goes back all the way,

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Speaker 3: you know, to Teddy Roosevelt in the progressive era, people

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Speaker 3: like Albert Fall and the teapot Dome scandal in in

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Speaker 3: the United States. So I guess the point that I'm

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Speaker 3: emphasizing there is that part of what we're going to

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Speaker 3: see is a continuation of this back and forth in

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Speaker 3: approach to public lands and public resources and regulation. And

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Speaker 3: that happened in the early Reagan years with the appointment

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Speaker 3: of someone like James Watt, who is kind of coming

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Speaker 3: out of the West wanting to return greater access to

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Speaker 3: resources to companies into states, as opposed to Carter's more

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Speaker 3: restriction oriented approach. And so we'll certainly see that with

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Speaker 3: the Trump appointees to Interior and other agencies in their

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Speaker 3: efforts to open up public lands and to oil and

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Speaker 3: gas drilling especially. There are other things that are maybe

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Speaker 3: more distinctive to the Carter Reagan shift that we'll see,

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Speaker 3: which is, you know, the appointment to agencies like EPA,

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Speaker 3: where you have people coming in who really have some

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Speaker 3: a questionable commitment to the mission of the agency. You know.

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Speaker 3: An Gorsich was the person appointed in the early Reagan years.

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Speaker 3: She had come out of the Colorado State legislature and

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Speaker 3: being a lobbyist in Colorado and had been a pretty

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Speaker 3: vocal opponent of clean air regulations and then was put

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Speaker 3: in charge of the EPA and one of her responsibilities

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Speaker 3: was to try to cut back on the EPA budget

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Speaker 3: and pull back on the new super fun law. So

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Speaker 3: I think we're going to see definitely going to see

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Speaker 3: those kinds of things happening in the new administration. You

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Speaker 3: can tell just by the people who are being appointed

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Speaker 3: that they are have really, you know, ambivalent relationship to

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Speaker 3: the mission of the bureaucracies that they're going to be running,

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Speaker 3: and so it's a question about how much they're going

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Speaker 3: to try to really sort of undermine from within and

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Speaker 3: how much they're going to try to pursue some of

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Speaker 3: the objectives of those agencies.

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Speaker 1: So in your book Public Citizens, you write about how

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Speaker 1: citizen advocacy movements of the nineteen sixties and nineteen seventies,

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Speaker 1: well they remade America but then also perhaps had unintended

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Speaker 1: consequences and paving the way for our Reagan era conservative

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Speaker 1: movement that was aimed at slashing regulations. There is also

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Speaker 1: a parallel there to now, because Elon Musk is supposed

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Speaker 1: to run this Department of Government Efficiency that is aimed

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Speaker 1: at doing exactly that, shrinking the size of government. Are

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Speaker 1: you experiencing deja vu that is very strong? And what

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Speaker 1: consequences might this have for the kind of success these

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Speaker 1: agencies are these new efficiency movements can have.

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Speaker 3: I mean, that's a great question, and certainly, yeah, there

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Speaker 3: is a lot of deja vu looking at the early

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Speaker 3: Reagan years, and so just to put the broader context

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Speaker 3: on the public citizens and kind of the idea of

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Speaker 3: the CITs and activists, the argument there was that the

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Speaker 3: attack on the new Deal administrative state in the nineteen

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Speaker 3: seventies comes not just from the right, but also from

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Speaker 3: the left and people like consumer activist Ralph Nader and

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Speaker 3: others who come to see government agencies as being a

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Speaker 3: big part of the environmental problem and they start, you know,

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Speaker 3: suing them and attacking them and criticizing their close alliance

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Speaker 3: with companies and seeing that, you know, again that they're

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Speaker 3: part of the problem. But one of the key distinctions

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Speaker 3: between the liberal attack on the agencies and the conservative

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Speaker 3: attack on the agencies, and this gets back to what

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Speaker 3: I was just saying, is that the liberals, you still

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Speaker 3: believed in the federal government, They still believed in regulation.

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Speaker 3: They just wanted it to serve what they saw as

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Speaker 3: the public interest. But the difference was that when the

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Speaker 3: Reagan you know, regulators came in, they had a much

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Speaker 3: more as I said, much more ambivalent relationship to the

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Speaker 3: agencies and to whether they really supported their missions. In

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Speaker 3: many cases, they were coming in in the early nineteen

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Speaker 3: eighties with what they saw as a mandate or a

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Speaker 3: mission of rolling back the social and environmental regulation of

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Speaker 3: the nineteen seventies, and that includes clean air regulation, water regulation.

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Speaker 3: Occupational safety and health was also a big area that

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Speaker 3: they were quite hostile to. And so, you know, what

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Speaker 3: what was happening under Carter was, in my view, an

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Speaker 3: effort to try to balance some of the reforms of

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Speaker 3: the federal bureaucracy with the continued implementation of regulation to

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Speaker 3: protect the air and the water. Carter was trying to

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Speaker 3: juggle these two things and see how you could build

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Speaker 3: trust in government by making government be more efficient and

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Speaker 3: more effective. But he still believed very strongly in environmental regulation. Now,

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Speaker 3: the difference with Reagan, and I also think the parallel

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Speaker 3: with Trump, is that you have these folks like Musk

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Speaker 3: who are coming in, you know, really hostile to the

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Speaker 3: bureaucracy as a whole, questioning legitimacy and its mission. And

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Speaker 3: that's kind of what happened with Reagan as they came in,

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Speaker 3: you know, with the idea that they were going to

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Speaker 3: slash regulations, they were gonna dismantle different programs. What interestingly,

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Speaker 3: had worked in the federal government before he came into

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Speaker 3: the Interior Department, and he was a bit of a

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Speaker 3: bureaucratic warrior and really wanted to kind of reform the

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Speaker 3: agency from within, and saw h self as having, you know,

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Speaker 3: six months a year to do all of the dramatic

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Speaker 3: changes that he could during this short period of time.

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Speaker 3: So it was a very aggressive effort to try to

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Speaker 3: transform their bureaucracy. And what happened as a result is

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Speaker 3: that there was a massive backlash to the Reagan efforts.

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Speaker 3: There was very little consensus building or coalition building around

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Speaker 3: regulatory reform, and there were hearings in Congress, and there

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Speaker 3: was litigation and the irony of the Reagan efforts at deregulation.

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Speaker 3: So they actually accomplished very little. And part of the

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Speaker 3: reason why they accomplished so little is because they didn't

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Speaker 3: do what Carter was trying to do, which is trying

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Speaker 3: to balance the legitimacy of government with deregulation. So, I mean,

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Speaker 3: I think we can all agree on the idea that

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Speaker 3: government should be more efficient. It should be more effective.

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Speaker 3: But we also maybe you know, can still agree we

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Speaker 3: want clean air, we want clean water. What Reagan did

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Speaker 3: was sort of separate those two things, and that made

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Speaker 3: it actually quite difficult for the Reagan administration to accomplish

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Speaker 3: its goals.

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Speaker 1: Now, taking a look at foreign policy, Bergram, who is

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Speaker 1: Trump's pick for Interior Department, as the ability to open

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Speaker 1: up federal lance to oil and gas drillings and has

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Speaker 1: said that he would like to use American energy as

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Speaker 1: a tool for quote unquote world peace. Have you heard

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Speaker 1: that before? And how exactly can fossil fuels be used

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Speaker 1: for world peace?

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Speaker 3: Well, I mean, I think this is a very interesting

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Speaker 3: area to you know, to explore and thinking about. You know,

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Speaker 3: energy independence, you know, was a big theme of the

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Speaker 3: nineteen seventies, and and Carter was strongly behind that. And

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Speaker 3: you know, Carter's remembered as a big environmentalist for his

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Speaker 3: renewable energy initiatives, but he also was quite in favor

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Speaker 3: of domestic drilling and coal development and synthetic fuels. And

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Speaker 3: so this is part of the sort of complicated legacy

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Speaker 3: of the nineteen seventies and also part of why we

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Speaker 3: didn't get off fossil fuels earlier, which is that there

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Speaker 3: was a kind of competing objectives of national security, low

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Speaker 3: prices for consumers as well as reducer consumption. So I

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Speaker 3: think I think there's a there are some legitimate strategic

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Speaker 3: conversations that could be had about the role of reducing

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Speaker 3: oil prices and energy abundance in sort of the grand

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Speaker 3: strategies around the globe and what that's meant for the

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Speaker 3: Arab States or for the Russian Russian expansionism. Low energy

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Speaker 3: prices I think have been really challenging for Russia, So

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Speaker 3: I do think we'll see a continued effort at that.

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Speaker 3: I think what's so complicated about our current moment. People

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Speaker 3: want to think about us as being in an energy transition,

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Speaker 3: but we have this complex situation where we're both producing

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Speaker 3: more fossil fuels than ever before in history and also

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Speaker 3: you know, accelerating the energy transition with renewables. Whether that

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Speaker 3: is actually a path to where we want to go

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Speaker 3: as a society, I think is a real open question.

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Speaker 1: Well, China as a threat did not exist in the

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Speaker 1: Reagan Ears at least, if anything, those desire to want

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Speaker 1: to engage with China. But if you look at the

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Speaker 1: current moment With recent foreign policy priority for the US

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Speaker 1: under Biden has been to try and not lose their

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Speaker 1: foothold in the market for electric vehicles or for green technologies,

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Speaker 1: where China is excelling. And the way Trump talks about

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Speaker 1: China now it sounds like he is interested in competing,

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Speaker 1: he wants America to win. But then he also calls

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Speaker 1: the energy transition investments as the green new scam. And

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Speaker 1: so does this mean under Trump the US loses the

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Speaker 1: opportunity to catch up with China, if it ever was

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Speaker 1: going to catch up with China and green technologies.

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Speaker 3: First, I guess I would just highlight the complexity of

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Speaker 3: the US China relationship and what it means for the

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Speaker 3: energy transition as having some similarities to what I was

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Speaker 3: describing in the nineteen seventies, which is just that the

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Speaker 3: US has been in this position of both trying to

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Speaker 3: reduce emissions by accelerating the adoption of solar energy and

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Speaker 3: wind technologies and batteries and all these things, but at

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Speaker 3: the same time trying to do a kind of energy

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Speaker 3: and dependence through domestic manufacturing, which has meant that we've

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Speaker 3: been putting tariffs on solar imports from China and trying

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Speaker 3: to protect renewable energy industries, which is in turn sort

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Speaker 3: of slowing the energy transition. So it's again the sort

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Speaker 3: of complicated two step or multi dimensional aspect of this

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Speaker 3: energy transition in terms of what happens going forward. So

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Speaker 3: I think what's fascinating about the Trump situation is that

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Speaker 3: is this tension between his rivalry with China and his

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Speaker 3: hostility towards renewable energy businesses. But I think the bigger

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Speaker 3: challenge here is that the economic opportunities that are happening

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Speaker 3: in renewable energy are increasingly happening around the world and

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Speaker 3: not necessarily centered in the United States or or necessarily

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Speaker 3: even in China, and so we're kind of competing for

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Speaker 3: exports to other places around the world. And I think

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Speaker 3: it will be challenging for the United States to catch

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Speaker 3: up as a manufacturer of these different technologies. The United

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Speaker 3: States has not been dominating manufacturing in recent decades. So

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Speaker 3: the idea that even with tariffs and other kinds of

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Speaker 3: protections and subsidies, that we're going to become a leader

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Speaker 3: in these technologies, it's a little dice as to whether

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Speaker 3: the United States can actually pull that off, because there

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Speaker 3: are so many pressures that have already exerted themselves, and

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Speaker 3: so many synergies around manufacturing in China where they're able

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Speaker 3: to connect the batteries, the cars, the panels, all sorts

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Speaker 3: of synergies around manufacturing. It's going to be difficult. And

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Speaker 3: I think that's not so much around Trump's hostility even

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Speaker 3: but really about the long much longer term trend around

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Speaker 3: industrial manufacturing in the United States that make it quite challenging.

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Speaker 1: But you made this point that historically there has been

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Speaker 1: you know, on the one side, affordability of energy, which

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Speaker 1: has ended up in pursuing more fossil fuel policies versus

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Speaker 1: trying to reduce emissions, which has led to some amount

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Speaker 1: of renewable deployment as things we can compare. But really,

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Speaker 1: if you look at the history of US energy consumption,

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Speaker 1: US has kind of made its choice for decades because

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Speaker 1: every president in the last many decades and let's just

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Speaker 1: look at this century, from Bush to Obama to Trump

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Speaker 1: to Biden, has increased the extraction of fossil fuels. And again,

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Speaker 1: of course Trump wants to continue the trend. This is

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Speaker 1: something that you've looked at. You're an expert in this area.

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Speaker 1: Am I reading it wrong that the US really just

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Speaker 1: wants and is very happy with its abundant fossil fuels

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Speaker 1: and you know, the renewable energy transition, Well, that's something

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Speaker 1: we have to do because we have to show the

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Speaker 1: world that this is I think the US is.

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Speaker 3: Very is very committed to cheap energy, and the politics

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Speaker 3: of energy prices are very harsh in the US. You know,

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Speaker 3: high gas prices lead to discontent, and that's not just

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Speaker 3: in the United States. It's really around the world that

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Speaker 3: you see examples of that. I mean, I think it

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Speaker 3: is important to put fast increased fossil fuel production in

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Speaker 3: the context of significantly rising renable energy development, because renewable

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Speaker 3: energy is shaving off growth in fossil fuels, and you

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Speaker 3: do see the shuddering of some coal fire power plants,

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Speaker 3: and that a lot of the growth in power production

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Speaker 3: has been with solar and wind production, and international energy

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Speaker 3: agencies predictions have repeatedly underestimated the rapid growth of renewables

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Speaker 3: and also the cost declines in renewables. So I think

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Speaker 3: the bet that some people are making, and this is

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Speaker 3: really a bet about what's going to happen, is that

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Speaker 3: these cost declines are eventually going to push fossil fuels

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Speaker 3: out of use in a variety of scenarios, and that

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Speaker 3: what we should be doing in the short term is

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Speaker 3: having energy abundance for prosperity and growth and technological development,

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Speaker 3: but that we are inexorably headed towards a renewable future

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Speaker 3: because solar energy is going to basically just outcompete the

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Speaker 3: fossil fuels eventually. Now I'm a little less optimistic about

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Speaker 3: that and think that it's much more likely that without

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Speaker 3: policy intervention, that we will continue to have a robust

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Speaker 3: fall fuel sector paired with a growth of renewables, and

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Speaker 3: the growth of renewables will have a significant impact on

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Speaker 3: our climate future, and you know, we'll shave off the

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Speaker 3: growth of fossil fuels perhaps, but I do tend to

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Speaker 3: believe that without policy intervention we won't be able to

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Speaker 3: get to net zero or anything remotely close to it.

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Speaker 1: After the break, more of my conversation with Yale historian

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Speaker 1: Paul Stateman. And if you've been enjoying this episode, please

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Speaker 1: take a moment to rate and review the show on

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Speaker 1: Spotify or Apple. It helps other listeners find the show. Well,

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Speaker 1: I'll maybe ask you now to suspend some of your

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Speaker 1: beliefs and wear a Marga hat and think about what

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Speaker 1: Trump's going to do in the next four years where

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Speaker 1: we know with certainty that there will be more extreme

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Speaker 1: weather impacts driven by worsening climate change. Now, if you

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Speaker 1: were asked with your Marca hat on to give advice

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Speaker 1: to the Trump administration on how to deal with the

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Speaker 1: next four years, whether they want to call it climate

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Speaker 1: change or not, or whether they want to call it

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Speaker 1: energy transition or not, what advice would you give them?

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Speaker 3: Well, I guess there are the advices then the predictions.

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Speaker 3: You know. I think it's important to note that, you know, Texas,

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Speaker 3: for example, is the leader in you know, renewables, solar

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Speaker 3: and wind, and Elon Musk is very involved in the

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Speaker 3: renewable energy economy in a variety of ways. And so

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Speaker 3: there are ways in which you could see that MAGA

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Speaker 3: and the Trump Bees coming around on renewable energy as

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Speaker 3: an American industry that they want to support, and that

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Speaker 3: it is actually you know, coming out of Texas, and

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Speaker 3: there are all these ways in which it's a good thing,

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Speaker 3: and they could get behind aspects of it, and maybe

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Speaker 3: you know, Musk being a MAGA supporter now will lead

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Speaker 3: to a widespread conservative embrace of tesla and electric vehicles

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Speaker 3: and things like that. It's a little hard to predict.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it is clear though that the international perspective

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Speaker 3: that Trump will want to be hostile, you know, rhetorically

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Speaker 3: hostile to clear energy and environmental policies and international collaborations.

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Speaker 3: I think what's going to be fascinating. It will be

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Speaker 3: fascinating to the extent to which there are other natural

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Speaker 3: you know, other disasters like the fires or the hurricanes,

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Speaker 3: and what that they might provoke. I think my concern

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Speaker 3: about that, though, is that the disasters don't necessarily lead

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Speaker 3: to climate policy. What they tend to lead to instead

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Speaker 3: are disaster aid strategies in which there's sort of a coping, adapting, subsidizing, compensating.

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Speaker 3: Fires don't necessarily lead to climate policy, certainly not under

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Speaker 3: a Trump administration. So it's unclear exactly how those things

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Speaker 3: are going to be brought together. And the extent to

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Speaker 3: which continued signals of climate change lead to political pressure

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Speaker 3: on the Republican party to take action, we have not

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Speaker 3: yet really seen that converting into pressure on Republican politicians

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Speaker 3: in a substantial way. And until that happens, it's going

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Speaker 3: to be hard to see major policy change.

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Speaker 1: Are there more Carter to Regin transition parallels that you

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Speaker 1: can draw with Biden to Trump, Well, I.

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Speaker 3: Think there are or one one similarity and one difference

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Speaker 3: that I think is really important to mention. One is

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Speaker 3: about the role of the liberal public interest organizations. And

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Speaker 3: we saw this during the first Trump administration with the

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Speaker 3: idea of the resistance. But it's it is very clarifying

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Speaker 3: for these public interest organizations, the litigating groups in natural

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Speaker 3: Resource Defense counsel or other other groups, you know, wanting

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Speaker 3: to sue the government and try to block things. It's

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Speaker 3: very that's what they were set up to do. They

439
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 3: were founded during the Nixon administration and their initial legal

440
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:58,160
Speaker 3: docket was all about suing agencies. So that's what they

441
00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:01,080
Speaker 3: are prepared to do. And when Reagan came into office,

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00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:03,680
Speaker 3: they soared in membership. I think the Sierra Club grew

443
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:06,280
Speaker 3: by some thirty percent a year during the early nineteen eighties,

444
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:10,439
Speaker 3: Donations flooded in. They sued and vilified you know, James

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00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 3: Watt and others. And we saw that again with the

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00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:16,280
Speaker 3: first Trump years, where there was just a wave of

447
00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:20,280
Speaker 3: lawsuits to try to block immigration issues, environmental issues, and

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00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:22,640
Speaker 3: things like that. So we can see that. I think

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00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:25,239
Speaker 3: it's in some ways easier for these groups to know

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Speaker 3: what they're supposed to do than under the Biden administration

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Speaker 3: when they are in this awkward position of being both

452
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:34,639
Speaker 3: allies and opponents rivals trying to pressure the government. So

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Speaker 3: I think we will see real clarity about mission and

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Speaker 3: again and it unifies them.

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Speaker 4: Now.

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Speaker 3: There are also some very significant differences from the early

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00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:47,040
Speaker 3: Reagan years, the first being that there is a Republican Congress,

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Speaker 3: and the Democratic Congress under Reagan led the way in

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Speaker 3: holding hearings and challenging and exposing and resisting Reagan's efforts.

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Speaker 3: And so we have a narrow majority of the Republicans now,

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Speaker 3: but it is it is a majority, and it makes

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00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:03,879
Speaker 3: it difficult for any of those kinds of hearings to

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00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 3: take place, and it will be much more difficult for

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00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:10,240
Speaker 3: the Democrats to push back. The Supreme Court. Also, while

465
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:14,000
Speaker 3: it was not a tremendously liberal court under Reagan, it

466
00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:16,640
Speaker 3: was a lot more liberal than the current court, and

467
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:19,320
Speaker 3: so that again is not going to be able to

468
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:22,880
Speaker 3: play the same role in the litigation that might unfold.

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much for your insights, Paul.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, thanks so much for having me. These are great questions,

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00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:31,439
Speaker 3: and it's we'll have to see how this sol unfolds.

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Speaker 1: History can teach us many things, but it rarely can

473
00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:45,840
Speaker 1: predict what happens next. In twenty twenty four, the Democrats

474
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:49,600
Speaker 1: made the election all about how democracy will fail if

475
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:54,119
Speaker 1: Trump is elected. But the people choose him anyway, and

476
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:58,200
Speaker 1: that's the power vested in people in a democracy. Their

477
00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:02,280
Speaker 1: choices are supreme, but also they can choose to make

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00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:05,680
Speaker 1: different choices in the future. So I wanted to leave

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Speaker 1: you with one more thought from Jonathan lash, the environmental

480
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 1: lawyer from the eighties who mightily spoke with.

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Speaker 2: I grew up in New York City in Greenwich Village,

482
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:18,959
Speaker 2: and my parents had a house with a little tiny

483
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 2: We were right in the city, but had a little

484
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 2: tiny backyard down in greench Village, and they had some

485
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:27,359
Speaker 2: lawn furniture out there, and if they wanted to go

486
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:30,240
Speaker 2: out and sit on a summer evening and have a

487
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:34,280
Speaker 2: drink at the scrub the oily soot off all the

488
00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:38,240
Speaker 2: furniture before they did it just accumulated. If you went

489
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:41,000
Speaker 2: to the top of the empire, state building. You could

490
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:44,080
Speaker 2: see the Chrysler building, but you never saw New Jersey

491
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 2: and all of that has changed now the air is

492
00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:52,480
Speaker 2: just much much cleaner. You don't you have to go

493
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 2: to New Delhi if you want to get that kind

494
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:59,680
Speaker 2: of exposure. And that's a tremendous success of the environmental

495
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 2: laws at the same time as we had extraordinary economic growth.

496
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:06,160
Speaker 2: It didn't destroy economic growth in the country, but it's

497
00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 2: also reduced the urgency of people's sense about these issues.

498
00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 2: You rarely see people becoming engaged in protests around direct,

499
00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:25,280
Speaker 2: immediate exposures, other than in some places where there are

500
00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:30,719
Speaker 2: large scale refineries that are creating human health risks. Climate

501
00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:35,200
Speaker 2: change is a much bigger, slower, more distributed impact, and

502
00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:38,400
Speaker 2: I think although all the polls show that there's a

503
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:41,800
Speaker 2: very high level of concern about climate change, it isn't

504
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:45,280
Speaker 2: as immediate as the problems that people were facing in

505
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 2: the nineteen eighties.

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Speaker 1: Or is it. On that note, thank you for listening

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Speaker 1: to zero and now for the Sound of the Week.

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00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:54,920
Speaker 1: A protest from the eighties.

509
00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:59,160
Speaker 4: Two men are members of Greenpeace and environmental group. I

510
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 4: climbed these in.

511
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:03,600
Speaker 3: Freezing weather to protest acid rain caused by pollution.

512
00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 1: Jim Styles is one of the men who climbed the

513
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:07,719
Speaker 1: six hundred and forty foot stack.

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00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 3: He still thinks the protest did some good.

515
00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:12,560
Speaker 4: I just get the feeling that before we did this,

516
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:14,000
Speaker 4: there were an awful lot of people who had just

517
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:16,720
Speaker 4: never even heard of acid rain or heard of it

518
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:18,600
Speaker 4: in passing and didn't think much of it. And now

519
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:20,760
Speaker 4: people realize that there are people who care about this,

520
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:23,600
Speaker 4: people who are very concerned with the destruction that is

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00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 4: taking place right now.

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Speaker 1: If you like this episode, please take a moment to

523
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:30,120
Speaker 1: rate or review the show on Apple podcasts on Spotify.

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00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 1: Share this episode with a friend or with someone who

525
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:36,520
Speaker 1: still dresses like it's the eighties. You can get in

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00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 1: touch at zero pod at Bloomberg dot Net. Zero's producer

527
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:42,720
Speaker 1: is Mighty Lee Rau. Bloomberg's head of podcast is Stage

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00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:46,200
Speaker 1: Palmer and head of Talk is Brendan Newnan. Our theme

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00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 1: music is composed by Wonderly Special thanks to Sharan Chan,

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00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:55,000
Speaker 1: Jender Louis, and Jessica beck I am Akshatrati back So

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Speaker 1: means