Speaker 1: NFL Game View is a production of the NFL in
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Speaker 2: Right along with a game debut presented by Mercedes Vince
Speaker 2: Patrick Claibon. Here with Greg Rosenthal and Cynthia Freeland, It's
Speaker 2: week eleven. I got a strong two sitting next to us.
Speaker 2: As we guys had some chaos at the top. There
Speaker 2: were dual crowns. Now we get to see who wears
Speaker 2: the crown this week.
Speaker 3: Oh, nobody really cares who does well between us. They
Speaker 3: care about the analysis and the you know what's.
Speaker 4: Just going Wow, are we going to fake humble? We
Speaker 4: might as well find out going fake humble?
Speaker 5: Now we're here.
Speaker 2: Well, you guys were tired at the top of the
Speaker 2: standings last week. Greg goes eleven and three to move
Speaker 2: back up top, and now he's got the crown at
Speaker 2: one hundred and three and forty nine. Cynthia one oh
Speaker 2: one and fifty one, and then I'm struggling, clawing my
Speaker 2: way to one hundred nine.
Speaker 5: Right there were right there.
Speaker 2: Only one place where we could start this week, and
Speaker 2: that's with the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 2: My homes versus Ali and one of the best rivalries
Speaker 2: in the NFL, two stars always seem to be on
Speaker 2: a collision course to meet in the playoffs, where Mahomes
Speaker 2: is three and zero and the rivalry continues Sunday, Mahomes
Speaker 2: and the undefeated Chiefs heading the Orchard Park Well Josh
Speaker 2: Allen and the Bills hand case lost number one on
Speaker 2: the season, Cynthia.
Speaker 4: I actually think that they will looking at this matchup.
Speaker 4: I have twenty six to twenty two, a four point
Speaker 4: win for the home team. There are some question marks
Speaker 4: in the Andrew Port, like Spencer Brown, that could make
Speaker 4: some differences. However, I still think that Josh Allen against
Speaker 4: the Blitz, which we knows Bags is going to throw
Speaker 4: his way, is just too big of a selling point
Speaker 4: in this game. Eleven touchdowns, zero interceptions, seven hundred and
Speaker 4: five yards number four and epa number four in passerad
Speaker 4: would you like me to go on please? That's actually
Speaker 4: like all of it, But basically it's really really good
Speaker 4: against the Blitz. This offense is Taylor made. This is
Speaker 4: the game that they set their clocks to up there
Speaker 4: in Orchard Park. When is the Kansas City matchups this week?
Speaker 6: And that's a really big deal for them.
Speaker 3: I gotta say, we've done this show together a long time,
Speaker 3: and yeah, this year, I feel like I get a
Speaker 3: feel of the model. I'm surprised the model has the
Speaker 3: Bills not only winning this game, but covering. And I'm
Speaker 3: with the model on this one. I have the Bills
Speaker 3: winning twenty four to twenty and it's because partly of
Speaker 3: the Bills defense, which is solid year after year, and
Speaker 3: this year they're getting outstanding potential All Pro play from
Speaker 3: Greg Rousseau. He is top five in the NFL in
Speaker 3: terms of quick pressures that's two and a half seconds
Speaker 3: or less. Patrick Mahomes maybe not moving quite as well
Speaker 3: the last couple of weeks because of his ankle. I
Speaker 3: do think this is a week where they can at
Speaker 3: least contain him in the pocket. The left tackle has
Speaker 3: been struggling for the Chiefs. Russeau's likely lining up at
Speaker 3: right tackle. I think he can win that matchup, and
Speaker 3: they showed that all those games, and it gives you this.
Speaker 5: Impression that the Chiefs own this rivalry.
Speaker 3: Well, not in the regular season, and that's what we're
Speaker 3: picking today. The regular season. The Bills have won the
Speaker 3: last few in the regular season. I like the Bills
Speaker 3: at home.
Speaker 2: I've lost a lot of games on this show picking
Speaker 2: again both of these teams, and I feel like things
Speaker 2: could go either way. But you mentioned this regular season matchup.
Speaker 2: This Buffalo Bills team is kind of hurt. Josh Allen
Speaker 2: had his first two interceptions against zone coverage last week
Speaker 2: without his top wide out to Khalil Shakir, only had
Speaker 2: eight targets beyond ten yards from a lot of scrimmage.
Speaker 2: That's this season long particular statistics. Dalton kinkd and a
Speaker 2: Marii Cooper, if they're doing cartwheels and warm ups, I'll
Speaker 2: text our producer, Higschom and I'll say, like, hey, I believe.
Speaker 2: But this Chiefs defense is so good as they have
Speaker 2: consistently been. And the reason that this Bills team has
Speaker 2: been so good is we've seen safety Josh. We've seen
Speaker 2: Josh not make the mistakes. But I think he has
Speaker 2: to be yolo Josh Allen to win this game. And
Speaker 2: I don't know if Yolo Josh Allen can beat this
Speaker 2: Chiefs team. So I'll take a stray bop and go.
Speaker 4: I mean, you're taking a stray on on an undefeated
Speaker 4: team that's we are.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Strategically it's hard living out here, folks.
Speaker 4: Strategically that that's an interesting move by us.
Speaker 6: Anyways, whatever, Yeah.
Speaker 2: We'll see, let's see how things here. We'll do some
Speaker 2: math on the game, Cynthia, will Patrick Mahomes have over
Speaker 2: or under two hundred and forty and a half passing
Speaker 2: yards on Sunday.
Speaker 4: I have him slated for two hundred and twenty nine,
Speaker 4: which is considerably less. Then remember my model tends to
Speaker 4: be pretty conservative. Yes, two twenty nine is quite a
Speaker 4: bit fewer than two hundred and forty when I'm looking
Speaker 4: at what you're talking about, Greg Russo.
Speaker 6: But there's also other pieces.
Speaker 4: This is the reason that they brought von Miller onto
Speaker 4: this team was to stop the Kansas City Chiefs, and
Speaker 4: specifically the Patrick Mahomes magic, especially on third down where.
Speaker 6: He is absolutely crazy.
Speaker 4: So not a huge passing game a little bit more
Speaker 4: maybe on the ground.
Speaker 3: You're making me feel better because you're right. When one
Speaker 3: person is by themselves picking the Chiefs on this show,
Speaker 3: I think they're undefeated.
Speaker 5: All if that person has never.
Speaker 2: Wor well, yeah, we'll have bug barb Bryan to get
Speaker 2: those stats in the break here. Staying in the AFCs,
Speaker 2: we'll be back on this game later on. The Steelers
Speaker 2: one of the biggest surprises of the season last week.
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson showed some veteran savvy to get Pittsburgh a
Speaker 2: big win. Stuff After Johnny Newton jumped off side, the
Speaker 2: entire Steelers roster turned into George Pickens and just started
Speaker 2: doing stuff. It was very weird. The Steelers play host
Speaker 2: of the Ravens on Sunday, Russ against Lamar first place
Speaker 2: in the division on the line. Who walks away with
Speaker 2: a dumb Cynthia the.
Speaker 4: Baltimore Ravens, but just by two points twenty five to
Speaker 4: twenty three. Expect to sweat this one out to the
Speaker 4: very end yet again. But Lamar Jackson, who is clearly
Speaker 4: an MVP form in fact, maybe he's having his best
Speaker 4: season ever as a passer. Look at those intermediate throws.
Speaker 4: So if you just dial in, there's so many different
Speaker 4: stats that I could say that Lamar Jackson is awesome in.
Speaker 4: But let's just look at intermediate throws because that's an
Speaker 4: area where you can get got on this Pittsburgh Steelers defense.
Speaker 4: So if I'm looking at where does Zay Flowers run intermediate,
Speaker 4: where they're gonna have a little revenge with Deontay Johns
Speaker 4: that maybe the intermediate Those are situations where you have
Speaker 4: a good advantage, and when Lamar Jackson is playing at
Speaker 4: the level what Lamar Jackson's playing at, you just want
Speaker 4: to look just ten to nineteen air yards. Just tell
Speaker 4: your friends you're gonna be like, hey, watch those intermediate
Speaker 4: throats Lamar Jackson, he's gonna get him.
Speaker 3: Got I love that and I love you bringing up
Speaker 3: Deontay Johnson. It's a true nobody believed in him game.
Speaker 3: I mean they didn't believe in him. They traded him away.
Speaker 3: You know who else people weren't believing in a few
Speaker 3: weeks ago Mark Andrews, I have the Ravens winning both
Speaker 3: Cynthia and I have the Steelers threading the needle though,
Speaker 3: so it's just a two point margin and they cover.
Speaker 3: But I think the Ravens get to win in part because, yes,
Speaker 3: Mark Andrews the last five weeks of the season, since
Speaker 3: that moment where he put the two goose eggs up
Speaker 3: in a row and everyone says it's over, the Mark
Speaker 3: andover is over. Drop him in your fantasy leagues. Here's
Speaker 3: what he's done. Tied for the NFL lead among tight
Speaker 3: ends in touchdowns, he is seventh in yards over that stretch.
Speaker 3: He is third in catch rate over expected, so he's
Speaker 3: bringing down some difficult throws in tough spots. They were
Speaker 3: showing the Lamar Jackson highlights for Cynthia's tape, and half
Speaker 3: of it was Mark Andrews because these two guys have
Speaker 3: a chemistry unmatched except for you know, maybe Kelsey and
Speaker 3: Mahomes in Kansas, but.
Speaker 5: We're not worrying about them right now.
Speaker 3: I think it's the area of the field, as Cynthia
Speaker 3: talked about, that the Ravens can take advantage. Good offense
Speaker 3: beats good defense in the end. But it's going to
Speaker 3: be a great game.
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's make it unanimous, not just in the picks,
Speaker 2: but in terms of the needle threading. Right here on
Speaker 2: game debut, I've got a Ravens win by one point
Speaker 2: on a late Tucker field goal with having the luxury.
Speaker 2: What a nice thing it is to have the NFL's
Speaker 2: leading rusher going up against the team where they have
Speaker 2: a player who can't bound himself, TJ. Watt, who has
Speaker 2: terrorized the Ravens in this matchup four years. But it's
Speaker 2: really the first time maybe we get twenty or thirty
Speaker 2: times of pound in the rock. With Derreck Henry on
Speaker 2: the inside, there's slow down that gifted edge rusher who
Speaker 2: when you see Lamar get out on the edge with
Speaker 2: the Trey Hendrix's of the world. He can make moves,
Speaker 2: make guys miss. He can't get away from TJ Watt
Speaker 2: and it really changes things for the Baltimore Ravens when
Speaker 2: they load up the box to stop Baltimore. They're number
Speaker 2: one in the run. The Steelers are top five in
Speaker 2: that particular stat but Baltimore number one. You have to,
Speaker 2: yeah to get the king early, otherwise they're going to
Speaker 2: be chasing them for a long wi. Also, they can
Speaker 2: keep their own defense off the field, which might help
Speaker 2: the Baltimore Ravens. So we're all in mem Away Stealers fans.
Speaker 2: We got another big divisional matchup going down between the
Speaker 2: Seahawks and the forty nine Ers. These two teams met
Speaker 2: back in week six. San Fran went up to Seattle
Speaker 2: on Thursday night, took care of business, brought Perty throwing
Speaker 2: for two fifty five and three touchdowns. George Kittle on
Speaker 2: the receiving end of two of those. Niners won thirty
Speaker 2: six to twenty four. Fast forward, and now they got
Speaker 2: a rematch in Santa Clara, Seattle, coming in losing five
Speaker 2: of their last six. Greg, what can Gino salvage this
Speaker 2: and get a win?
Speaker 3: He can, and that's why I think it's going to
Speaker 3: be a close game. But I think the forty nine
Speaker 3: ers are going to win. So I think the Seahawks
Speaker 3: cover that big spread and they come out and they
Speaker 3: play well. But Christian McCaffrey is the difference to me
Speaker 3: twenty seven to twenty four forty nine Ers, because this
Speaker 3: offense just looks like the forty nine ers offense again
Speaker 3: with Christian McCaffrey, I watched them last week. Did I
Speaker 3: see the same explosion as a runner. Maybe not yet
Speaker 3: he's warming up to that. But did I see some
Speaker 3: of the schematic advantages that he brings.
Speaker 5: Absolutely.
Speaker 3: He's a great pass blocker, by the way, which I
Speaker 3: think is a big advantage for them. He's a big
Speaker 3: upgrade from Jordan Mason there. But you see him on
Speaker 3: the wheel route. You see the attention that he brings
Speaker 3: as a receiver and how that opens up the rest
Speaker 3: of the offense for Juwan Jennings. George Kittle I like
Speaker 3: the way they use Jennings as a clear X receiver.
Speaker 3: They're a different team with Christian McCaffrey, and they're going
Speaker 3: to be too much for my Seahawks.
Speaker 5: Are they my Seahawks? I don't know. You will have
Speaker 5: them mission.
Speaker 4: Sure, but I'm actually exactly on the same side of
Speaker 4: this as you. I have a six point win for
Speaker 4: San Francisco, so I'm threading the needle as well minus
Speaker 4: twenty seven to twenty one.
Speaker 6: I just want to get a little love to George Kittle.
Speaker 4: Why because in this changed offense, in all of these
Speaker 4: injuries they've had, in all the difference like Okay, now
Speaker 4: brock Party's throwing deep, which brock Perty's had a great season.
Speaker 6: The man's going to get paid in.
Speaker 4: Large part because George Kittle has been on the receiving
Speaker 4: end of a lot more air yards this season, a
Speaker 4: lot deeper targets. He's been to be used in the
Speaker 4: pass catching game at just a rate we haven't really
Speaker 4: seen from him, in large part because he's had to.
Speaker 6: But with Christian McCaffrey back.
Speaker 4: And against this defense that's getting a little bit healthier,
Speaker 4: this will be an important matchup, not just because last
Speaker 4: time he was good against them, but also because he's
Speaker 4: been consistently good against every team this season.
Speaker 2: Yeah, with a quarterback that's been consistently good, I will
Speaker 2: be consistent with the points that you have and take
Speaker 2: a six point San Francisco win a go. I'm trying
Speaker 2: to think of a way that the Seahawks can win
Speaker 2: this game, and it's well, maybe Kenny Walker gets going
Speaker 2: and it helps protect Gino because historically in this matchup,
Speaker 2: the forty nine Ers have really gotten off to after Eugene.
Speaker 2: But in the last three games, which are all losses
Speaker 2: again for Seattle, they're averaging sixty four rush yards a game.
Speaker 2: And in the first game, Gino was pressured on thirty
Speaker 2: seven percent of his dropbacks. He was seven of nineteen
Speaker 2: on those plays. It's just tough to envision the route there.
Speaker 2: I think you get DK Metcalf that's back, but I
Speaker 2: don't know unless Dk is going to be up front.
Speaker 5: Three years, three years since they beat the forty nine ers.
Speaker 5: Give it.
Speaker 2: Do it for Greg, If not for the.
Speaker 6: Vision, We're gonna get the teamword.
Speaker 2: Here, Seahawks. Do it for Greg Rose at though, who
Speaker 2: needs this. We're just getting started here. On game day,
Speaker 2: you still to come. Joe Burrow's squad needs a win.
Speaker 2: They got a big win Sunday night with the surging Chargers.
Speaker 2: By the way, find someone who looks at you the
Speaker 2: way Jim Harball looks at Justin Herbert. Justin Herbert. We're
Speaker 2: talking Bengals bolts. Right after the break, It's time for
Speaker 2: the drive the Excellence presented by Mercedes Benz Herbert aka
Speaker 2: the Beast. Jamar Ball says, the Chargers playing host of
Speaker 2: the Bengals Sunday Night. Joe Burrow's team coming off a
Speaker 2: devastating Thursday night loss to the Ravens.
Speaker 4: What do you think takes place in I think the
Speaker 4: upset takes place against herbister.
Speaker 6: Whatever it's coming. With twenty four to.
Speaker 4: Twenty three, Cincinnati Bengals win this one. Why because that
Speaker 4: guy Joe Burrow also has that guy Jamar Chase and
Speaker 4: even T Higgins, but especially against zone coverage, which is
Speaker 4: something we see a lot of from the Chargers. What
Speaker 4: does Jamar Chase do?
Speaker 6: Oh, you know, just.
Speaker 4: All of the yards, all of the yards after the catch,
Speaker 4: all of the catches, all of the things that you
Speaker 4: want a wide receiver to do. He has all of
Speaker 4: the yards at them right like, this is a very
Speaker 4: bad matchup for this defense. If you look to see
Speaker 4: the quality of the quarterbacks that the Chargers have faced
Speaker 4: so far this season, I know Patrick Mahomes is on
Speaker 4: that list. However, I think right now, the way Joe
Speaker 4: Burrow is playing with Jamar Chase on the field, that
Speaker 4: to me forecast the upset.
Speaker 2: I'm right there with you, Cynthia, I agree. I've got
Speaker 2: a Bengals win as well, twenty six to twenty four
Speaker 2: because looking at that Chargers defense. To Cynthia's points, let's
Speaker 2: look at the way that they've gone through this season.
Speaker 2: Here's a game against the Cleveland Browns. That's one of
Speaker 2: five teams that the Chargers have played. I know that
Speaker 2: nobody's scored twenty points. More than twenty points against this team,
Speaker 2: but look at the schedule. There's one against against the
Speaker 2: Raiders with Gardner Minshew early season. Bo Knicks. That Patrick
Speaker 2: Mahomes win came before the New Hopkins trade, and it
Speaker 2: also came while they just lost Rashid Rice. Together, these teams,
Speaker 2: the Panthers, Titans, Browns of Broncos average seventeen point six
Speaker 2: points a game. That may be why they haven't had
Speaker 2: anybody score twenty. It's not to take a shot at them.
Speaker 4: It's just to say this Bengals offense is very good
Speaker 4: space while both of us were getting right.
Speaker 3: Now, so there being like it's offensive, what's going on
Speaker 3: right now? You want to talk about it? I like,
Speaker 3: but I'm gonna talk about easy matchup in this game.
Speaker 3: You know who the Chargers get to face the Bengals defense.
Speaker 3: They've been trash all year.
Speaker 5: You're gonna give me.
Speaker 3: A just Greg in Los Angeles with the Herbeast across
Speaker 3: the street.
Speaker 5: I'm loving it. I mean, what an easy matchup.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Joe Burrow is great and he has to go
Speaker 3: up against a great defense that cancels each other out. Meanwhile,
Speaker 3: you got her Beast running through one of the weakest
Speaker 3: secondaries in the league. This rush defense is weak. Justin
Speaker 3: Herbert right now is doing things on the football field.
Speaker 3: I'm like Jim Herbaugh, harba. I mean, I'm losing my
Speaker 3: mind here.
Speaker 6: Waw they're combining.
Speaker 5: He's just so physically impressive.
Speaker 3: The combination of the running ability and then the deep passes.
Speaker 3: And the weakest group in this game is the Cincinnati Bengals.
Speaker 3: It's the reason why Joe Burrow is having one of
Speaker 3: the best seasons out of any quarterback in the league
Speaker 3: and putting up thirty plus a game, and it keeps
Speaker 3: losing those games.
Speaker 5: And I think the Chargers are built to win a shootout.
Speaker 5: That's what they're gonna do.
Speaker 2: All right, Jess Greg going with the Chargers will stay.
Speaker 6: Jaman hendrickson call, He's coming for you.
Speaker 5: Okay, Ray Shawn Slater, we got taxed.
Speaker 2: Maybe they'll actually be able to sat Greg handle it.
Speaker 2: Staying in the AFC. The Broncos almost shot the defending
Speaker 2: champs last week. Almost Alan Broncos trying to rebound after
Speaker 2: that gut punch last week they play host to Kirko
Speaker 2: Chains and the Falcons. Do the Falcons bounce back from
Speaker 2: also a pretty nasty losson.
Speaker 4: Yeah, No, I gave my score before all the injury
Speaker 4: reports our final, so right now I have twenty two
Speaker 4: to twenty one in favor of Denver. It gets even
Speaker 4: more dramatic in Denver's favor because Zach Allen's back. He's good,
Speaker 4: He's on the like. That is a huge deal up
Speaker 4: the center right there. But I really want to talk
Speaker 4: about bo Nicks. Why because his O line has really
Speaker 4: been helping him out a ton. If you look at
Speaker 4: the Battle of the Trenches, the Broncos actually win both
Speaker 4: sides of this, but bo Nicks has done the thing
Speaker 4: that everyone kind of rolled their eyes when Sean Payton's like,
Speaker 4: we're gonna have him uses athleticism strategically and then start
Speaker 4: making easier passes and then roll out to deeper passes.
Speaker 4: He had a ton of yards to Courtland Sutton against
Speaker 4: the vaunted Kansas City Chiefs defense last week. So the
Speaker 4: guy is making these next level passes already, and we,
Speaker 4: like I said, like you know, Sean said it, we
Speaker 4: were all kind of like, okay, whatever. We've seen Bonnicks
Speaker 4: play a billion college games, but he's actually doing it.
Speaker 6: So it's it's pretty darn.
Speaker 3: Impressive, right and he's getting supported by guys up front
Speaker 3: pass protecting, but also in the running game. I think
Speaker 3: Odric Estimate not just a good fantasy pickup, but in reality,
Speaker 3: I think he's going to be an upgrade from DeVante Williams.
Speaker 3: I have the Broncos winning this game twenty three to
Speaker 3: sevent just a little more juice. I think in the
Speaker 3: backfield right now, he can bring you some big playability
Speaker 3: and toughness in between the tackles. This Falcons front line,
Speaker 3: to me, they're just not tough. And these are two
Speaker 3: teams that are close. If this game was in Lama,
Speaker 3: maybe I would feel differently. But I'm also applying the
Speaker 3: rarely used just like Greg test here, that the Falcons
Speaker 3: don't feel like a seven and four team. They feel
Speaker 3: a lot more like a six and five team. Both
Speaker 3: of these teams feel like six and five teams. So
Speaker 3: they're gonna find their level with the Broncos win.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that will be exactly even as we are
Speaker 2: exactly even in all taking the Denver Broncos in this matchup,
Speaker 2: because it's something where Cynthia talked about the bonus of
Speaker 2: the Denver offensive line. They're going up against objectively the
Speaker 2: worst pass rush in the National Football League. Bo Nicks
Speaker 2: will have time to throw off, time to pick his
Speaker 2: spots in the secondary, and I'll also have time to scramble,
Speaker 2: something he does at the fifth highest rate in the league.
Speaker 2: He's also top ten in time to throw, taking over
Speaker 2: a whole three seconds to get rid of the ball.
Speaker 2: The Falcons with the lowest pressure rate in the entire league. So,
Speaker 2: just as a fun thought, experiment. I want to see
Speaker 2: how long bo can be back there chilling against this
Speaker 2: Atlanta Falcons defense. We meme away single.
Speaker 6: You're gonna be like, oh okay, just check my watch. Patrick.
Speaker 2: We've already seen what his fellow rookie Drake na cound
Speaker 2: do scrambling around for eleven seconds. Maybe he comes back
Speaker 2: and goes even longer. That was the one and only
Speaker 2: time the Jets have hoisted the Lombardi Trophy, way back
Speaker 2: in Super Bowl three, five months before Neil and Buzz
Speaker 2: stepped on the Moon for the first time. We got
Speaker 2: a Jets Colts rematch Sunday as Aaron Rodgers squares off
Speaker 2: against Anthony Richardson's Cynthia. Is there a team you can
Speaker 2: guarantee like Joe did, wins this game.
Speaker 4: I mean, I have the Jets twitting. I'm not gonna
Speaker 4: go with that guaranteed. In fact, Greg and I were
Speaker 4: talking about this. This is where me and the model
Speaker 4: are at odds.
Speaker 6: Here.
Speaker 4: Model says three points for the Jets twenty two to nineteen.
Speaker 4: Cynthia's heart says Colts.
Speaker 6: Whatever.
Speaker 4: So you're gonna look at the number and say, Okay,
Speaker 4: I'm threading the needle here and that's why. But you
Speaker 4: know what else is threading the new Aaron Rodgers from
Speaker 4: the pocket. He's stayed in the pocket the most in
Speaker 4: his career per next Gen Stats, like eighty eight percent
Speaker 4: of the time he's been passing from the pocket since
Speaker 4: next Gen stats were born in twenty sixteen.
Speaker 6: That's his highest rate.
Speaker 4: When I'm looking at where a vulnerable point of this
Speaker 4: defense is for the Colts, Guess what when quarterbacks stay
Speaker 4: in the pocket, they're allowing a bunch of yards, a
Speaker 4: bunch of yards after the catch. I know DeVante Adams
Speaker 4: didn't practice, so you're gonna want to keep your eye
Speaker 4: on that for fantasy purposes. That just means more love
Speaker 4: to the other guys, if not three point win for
Speaker 4: the Jets.
Speaker 2: Yeah, my head and heart are at odds here because
Speaker 2: my head's also telling me that the Jets are going
Speaker 2: to win this game. It's not a pick that I
Speaker 2: necessarily want to make. My heart says Gurgle. Gurgle is
Speaker 2: since blood coursing through my veins. But I'm just looking
Speaker 2: at the defensive structure of the Indianapolis Colts and Gus
Speaker 2: Bradley's squad, as is traditional, plays a lot of zone
Speaker 2: and unless they shock the world and shock me and
Speaker 2: break that tendency. What has Aaron Rodgers done against man defense?
Speaker 2: Per Next Gen Stats? His total EPA, his expected points
Speaker 2: add it is negative fifty one against man covers this season.
Speaker 2: Maybe Gus plays man, but if he plays zone that
Speaker 2: there's going to be opportunity for Aaron Rodgers and DeVante
Speaker 2: Adams and Garrett Wilson figure things out to get some points.
Speaker 3: I mean, I am going to be trash talking to
Speaker 3: you all Sunday when the Colt.
Speaker 2: I'll deserve it.
Speaker 3: I mean you even spent that colds Field negging Aaron Rodgers.
Speaker 5: The Colts are going to win this game. This is
Speaker 5: not even an upset.
Speaker 3: The only upset is that Patrick picked the Jets. I mean,
Speaker 3: they've been on fraud Watch all year and we've nailed it.
Speaker 5: You're allowed to still change your pick. Good effort here.
Speaker 3: I'll try to convince you watch bad Jets run defense
Speaker 3: highlights all.
Speaker 4: Years, suggesting Anthony Richardson is as good as Kyler Murray
Speaker 4: at running the football.
Speaker 5: Absolutely.
Speaker 3: I think if you build a running game around Anthony
Speaker 3: Richardson and Jonathan Taylor that can be as dynamic.
Speaker 2: Levis.
Speaker 3: Yeah, then the Cardinals a few weeks here. So yeah,
Speaker 3: they're bad in pass defense too, sneakily like, but it's
Speaker 3: really the run defense that to me, it's Sauce Gardner
Speaker 3: in this really lightweight secondary who can never get anyone down.
Speaker 3: Jonathan Taylor's playing well. I feel great about this game.
Speaker 3: You're crazy you can still switch though.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's clear. I don't want them to
Speaker 2: do it. Just you got to pick what you think
Speaker 2: is gonna happen. Let's get to some quick picks when
Speaker 2: we make picks in rapid succession. The Jags and Lions
Speaker 2: of Motown, Detroit coming off a wild Sunday night come
Speaker 2: back against Houston. Do they get Jared golf back doing well?
Speaker 5: Yes, I think they win forty one to seven in
Speaker 5: this game.
Speaker 3: I'm making it, you know, this big of a score
Speaker 3: in part because the Lions they felt like they lost
Speaker 3: last week, so they want to prove a point. They're
Speaker 3: a great team that feels like they're coming off a
Speaker 3: loss even though they won. It's too bad for the
Speaker 3: Jaguars and Mac Jones. Let's watch a little Brian Brandt
Speaker 3: tape Defensive Player of the Year candidate. What he is
Speaker 3: doing is just so difficult playing premiere level cornerback play,
Speaker 3: essentially because he's great in man coverage but always reading
Speaker 3: the quarterback's eyes and making plays on the ball. Mac
Speaker 3: Jones versus Brian Brandt is not a fair fight. This
Speaker 3: secondary that they have rebuilt in one offseason is absolutely fantastic.
Speaker 5: They hold the Jags down.
Speaker 2: All right. Let's go to the Vikings Titans in Nashville.
Speaker 2: Sam Donald squad squeaking out a win against the Jags
Speaker 2: last week. What do they do here, Cynthy?
Speaker 4: I think they win pretty handily as well. I have
Speaker 4: twenty three to eighteen in this matchup. I want to
Speaker 4: talk about Andrew Van Ginkle. Has anyone ever matched their
Speaker 4: teams facade as much as Van Ginkle? No, he is
Speaker 4: a Viking, but also he's a Swiss Army knife because
Speaker 4: he's the only there's only two players need National Football League.
Speaker 6: Wo've lined up in pass.
Speaker 4: Pro, they've lined up in coverage, and they've lined up
Speaker 4: against the run on one hundred snaps each.
Speaker 6: So he truly is. And by the way, he's got
Speaker 6: to pick six. He's got sacks.
Speaker 4: Like this guy's doing everything and he's doing it as
Speaker 4: a Viking and a Viking.
Speaker 2: It just fits so well, yeah, so many guys don't.
Speaker 2: We have tried to shoehorn like Mario Williams in the
Speaker 2: pass coverage. It's like, but Andrew Van Ginkle, it just
Speaker 2: it just makes sense.
Speaker 6: But he also just looks like a Viking.
Speaker 5: Yeah right Upfleet doesn't act like a Viking, you know.
Speaker 2: No, Pillager Brown's in the Saints. Darren Rizzy brought some
Speaker 2: life back to New Orleans. I'm taking Jamis and the
Speaker 2: reunion game here got the Browns winning twenty to nineteen.
Speaker 2: Of course, the super Dome, Who's always going to appreciate
Speaker 2: Jamis's efforts before the game. During the game, they're gonna
Speaker 2: have to deal with Miles Garrett. The deep passing that
Speaker 2: Derek Carr relies on will be unavailable. When ninety five,
Speaker 2: who was playing great before the break, had a week off,
Speaker 2: rookie to Leise Luaga having a solid season but has
Speaker 2: given up some quick pressures. Well now he has to
Speaker 2: play against the king of quick pressures in Miles Garrett.
Speaker 2: Time for this guy or that guy here on game
Speaker 2: debut the Chiefs and the Bills in the Game of
Speaker 2: the Year Player props for the star players in the game.
Speaker 2: Starting with Greg Rosenthal, who's more likely to throw over
Speaker 2: one and a half touchdowns, Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen.
Speaker 5: I'm gonna go with the guy who's been throwing more
Speaker 5: touchdowns all year.
Speaker 3: That's Josh Allen. He's putting up those digits. I think
Speaker 3: it could be an MVP season for Josh Allen. A
Speaker 3: very difficult match. I see how it's his past TDS. Obviously,
Speaker 3: if you get overall touchdowns, if you could include rushing,
Speaker 3: it feel like a home run. Ultimately, I think Josh
Speaker 3: Allen is going to play his best in this game.
Speaker 5: He'll have enough weapons.
Speaker 3: Between Khalio Sakir, it does look like Amari Cooper is
Speaker 3: gonna play getting James Cook involved as a receiver.
Speaker 5: Give me Josh Allen in a great.
Speaker 2: Season, all right, So that's one for the Bills. Let's
Speaker 2: see if Cynthia who's going over sixty and a half
Speaker 2: rushing yards, Kareem Hunt or James Cook.
Speaker 4: Well, I would pick both of them if I could,
Speaker 4: But the one that I think is more likely to
Speaker 4: or more likely to have more rushing yards is actually
Speaker 4: James Cook. When I'm looking at the opportunity for Kareem Hunt,
Speaker 4: some of those are pass catches. I know it's the
Speaker 4: same thing for James Cook, but this entire offense, this
Speaker 4: is based on the run, especially if there is any
Speaker 4: sort of injury to Spencer Brown at all. Run the
Speaker 4: football to keep everyone in manageable downs and distances. So
Speaker 4: you're really not letting the pass rush that's coming from
Speaker 4: all of these different sides get in your way. So
Speaker 4: Joe Brady will design James Cook runs and I believe
Speaker 4: it will go over. I think I have like seventy
Speaker 4: eight or something. That's a very high number. Again, I'm conservative,
Speaker 4: all right.
Speaker 2: Head to head, we've got two bills picks. I will
Speaker 2: take in receptions a couple of Chase Travis kelce or
Speaker 2: Nu Hopkins five or more receptions, and I do believe
Speaker 2: they'll both hit that number. But I'm going with Travis
Speaker 2: Kelcey here because let's go back and look. Since they
Speaker 2: go and get DeAndre Hopkins, what is Travis Kelcey done
Speaker 2: target wise in the past three weeks? What about twelve
Speaker 2: against Las Vegas? What about sixteen against Tampa Bay? What
Speaker 2: about twelve against Denver? All those targets are going to
Speaker 2: lead to Travis getting five.
Speaker 5: Or more season. We're conservative.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it feels super conservatives. Let's do one more. Amari
Speaker 2: Cooper should be back, we think for Buffalo anytime touchdown score,
Speaker 2: Amari Cooper or Khalil Shakiir.
Speaker 3: I like Khalil Shakir in general, the more consistent target
Speaker 3: grabber all season long. Also, when a guy's coming off
Speaker 3: an injury, he hasn't been with the team that long.
Speaker 3: It just feels like Shakier is a guy who has
Speaker 3: built up chemistry over time a little more likely than Cooper,
Speaker 3: who's a great player. And I hope in a way
Speaker 3: that I'm wrong, not for the viewers if they're taking
Speaker 3: this advice, but just that I want to see a healthy,
Speaker 3: productive Amari Cooper.
Speaker 6: Sneaky Dawson Knox touchdown is what I like.
Speaker 2: Yes, the Chiefs have seen some issues stopping tight ends
Speaker 2: on the season. Again, Mahome Allen's one of the better
Speaker 2: rivalries in the NFL. But before their grandparents were a
Speaker 2: twinkle in someone's eye, there was another rivalry brewing just
Speaker 2: off of Lakeney Tom to Seize the Season presented by
Speaker 2: Caesars Sportsbook, always jarring to see somebody hitting a fridge
Speaker 2: and effigy in that video there the Packers and the
Speaker 2: Bears first touchdown score odds. Leading the way is Josh Jacobs.
Speaker 2: One Bear sneaks on there, DeAndre Swift. We'll see if
Speaker 2: the offense gets better then Jayden Reid, Romeo Dobbs and
Speaker 2: Tucker Craft. As we get into this matchup, more Packers
Speaker 2: coming off of a bye. Meanwhile, the Bears firing their
Speaker 2: off as a coordinator earlier in the week. What happened
Speaker 2: Cynthia Green.
Speaker 4: Bay wins this game twenty five to seventeen. That's what
Speaker 4: I have, But I do want to talk about what
Speaker 4: might look different now that we have Thomas Brown, who
Speaker 4: comes from the McVeigh Shanahan tree. Because we've seen poor
Speaker 4: Caleb Williams be under pressure.
Speaker 6: There's I asked for sacks.
Speaker 4: We had thirty eight to choose from, and nine of
Speaker 4: them were unblocked pressures.
Speaker 6: Both of those are the.
Speaker 4: Highest marks in the National Football League. So what are
Speaker 4: you going to do to protect this man? Number One,
Speaker 4: You're gonna have heavier formations like twelve. This team's actually
Speaker 4: better running out of twelve than they are passing out
Speaker 4: of twelve, which is, by the way, two tight ends,
Speaker 4: one running back on the field. I think they're going
Speaker 4: to start adding a few passes here, because if you
Speaker 4: look at a vulnerable point in the Packers defense, it's
Speaker 4: defending passes out of twelve. So give Caleb Williams some
Speaker 4: easier passes to complete. Please don't make him get sacked.
Speaker 4: Like just upright, Kayleb Williams.
Speaker 6: This is the one we like.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we want to see him at least standing at
Speaker 2: some point. And it was a struggle against the Patriots.
Speaker 2: I think it's going to be a struggle here. I've
Speaker 2: got a twenty six to sixteen win, so we'll just
Speaker 2: change a point from both teams from Cynthia's score. But
Speaker 2: I think that they get a healthy Packers team and
Speaker 2: the ability to run the ball. The Bears defense giving
Speaker 2: up sixty six points in the last three losses to
Speaker 2: Kawan Brisker goes to ir. They've had to carry this
Speaker 2: team and now come of this Packers attack where they
Speaker 2: can do it in a lot of different ways. Josh
Speaker 2: Jacobs top five in the NFL running to the strong
Speaker 2: side of formation, and then he's also got eighty five
Speaker 2: yards over expected running from the shotgun. Just so many
Speaker 2: different ways that they can attack, and I don't know
Speaker 2: what this Bear's attack is going to look like, but
Speaker 2: I'll have faith in it.
Speaker 3: GRD, I don't neither look your scores. You have the
Speaker 3: Packers covering, and yet I think you're being way too generous.
Speaker 5: It's over for this Bears team. It's thirty one to ten.
Speaker 3: I suggested showing some Andrew Billings highlights for this package
Speaker 3: that's the Bears nose tackle. Our producer said, can you
Speaker 3: give us something a little more sexy?
Speaker 5: And I said, what's.
Speaker 6: A little next than that?
Speaker 5: Back here?
Speaker 3: Yeah, some run stopping Andrew Billings of the Bears. Now
Speaker 3: I'm pining this out because he's no longer playing for
Speaker 3: the Bears. Unfortunately, he is on injured reserve. And since
Speaker 3: he's gone onto injured reserve, their run defense has collapsed.
Speaker 3: So everyone talks about how much Caleb Williams is struggling.
Speaker 5: That's obvious. This team has lost forty eight to twelve
Speaker 5: by the last two weeks. But they are not a
Speaker 5: good run defense.
Speaker 3: This whole idea that, oh, well, Matt eber Fleus, at
Speaker 3: least his defense is at lockdown. They're thirtieth in the
Speaker 3: NFL in efficiency against the run. The Packers are going
Speaker 3: to run all over them on Sunday. I do not
Speaker 3: think it's closed. Stop telling me this is the best
Speaker 3: rivalry in the league. It hasn't been a rivalry for
Speaker 3: like two decades. Right, get them Greg excited? Come on
Speaker 3: Bear Sorry time now for.
Speaker 2: What we're calling just for kicks, for better or worse.
Speaker 2: Kickers playing a huge role in Week ten. So this
Speaker 2: segment is dedicated to Yes, get the kickball, some love,
Speaker 2: talking to some kicker props. We start with the Broncos
Speaker 2: kicker Will Lutz went zero for two on field goals
Speaker 2: last week, including having the game winner blocked. Will he
Speaker 2: make more or less than one and a half field
Speaker 2: goals on Sunday?
Speaker 5: Easiest decision I made all week. We're going more than
Speaker 5: one and.
Speaker 3: A half field goals Will Lutt's revenge game after the
Speaker 3: Chiefs blocked him. You know what Sean Payton did first
Speaker 3: thing he did when he got to Denver, he said,
Speaker 3: I need to build a culture. Who is the one
Speaker 3: man who I can build it with. It's Will Ruts.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna send a draft pick to New Orleans. It's
Speaker 3: not a conditional draft pick. It's a straight up pick
Speaker 3: for Will Lutz. He's gonna come to Denver and he's
Speaker 3: gonna be hitting moonshots through that thin air more than
Speaker 3: one and a half.
Speaker 2: All right, So let's go to Jake Bates Cynthia, because
Speaker 2: he was money last week for the Lions. He almost
Speaker 2: still counts in the NFL. Will least score more or
Speaker 2: less than eight and a half points a huge number
Speaker 2: against the Jags?
Speaker 6: I don't care. The answer is more and yes.
Speaker 4: At first I did to say more because more is fun,
Speaker 4: and then I actually did a little math because that
Speaker 4: is how big of a loser I am in my
Speaker 4: spare creaer, just to make sure here, and he actually
Speaker 4: goes at least nine points in fifty five points in
Speaker 4: a whopping fifty five percent of simulations. So maybe it
Speaker 4: has something to do with the fact that they aren't
Speaker 4: playing as like a game where they're favored that highly
Speaker 4: because they're coming off a loss, right, So perhaps it's that,
Speaker 4: But that's model surprised me.
Speaker 2: Even Let's go all right, so we got a couple
Speaker 2: mores and young Way Coup went one for four on
Speaker 2: field goals last week. The question asked to me is
Speaker 2: will he score more or less than six and a
Speaker 2: half points Sunday against the Broncos. I say it's actually
Speaker 2: less and it's not anything to do with Young Waycup.
Speaker 2: I think he'll kick great in the atmosphere. It's just
Speaker 2: gonna have to be from deep because I think the
Speaker 2: Denver Broncos will move the ball. Field position will not
Speaker 2: be good, and so Young Way Coup. Maybe he gets
Speaker 2: a sixty five yarder, maybe there's the fifty eight yarder
Speaker 2: in there, but the Broncos are going to have the ball.
Speaker 2: There's not gonna be a lot of opportunity. And I
Speaker 2: think he does. He gets a chance to bounce back,
Speaker 2: but six and a half points it's just too much.
Speaker 2: So I'm ruining the fun.
Speaker 6: It's a less Okay, it's.
Speaker 5: A fun bummer of a year.
Speaker 6: Let's do this music. How can you have fun with
Speaker 6: this music?
Speaker 2: Fun taking us through? So that was just for kicks
Speaker 2: here on Game Deview and folks. Salute to Service is
Speaker 2: the year round effort by the NFL and his charitable
Speaker 2: partners to honor, empower, and connect with our nation service members, veterans,
Speaker 2: and their families. At this time each year, the NFL
Speaker 2: reinforces its support gratitude to those who have served and
Speaker 2: those who continue to serve. Visit nfl dot com slash
Speaker 2: Salute to learn about the NFL's impact with its salute
Speaker 2: to service partners. Let's get some more games in, get
Speaker 2: some more quick picks. Rams and Patriots and New England.
Speaker 2: Fresh off the beatdown they put on the Bears, do
Speaker 2: they do it again here? Gret.
Speaker 5: I believe the Rams get this victory.
Speaker 3: I believe they cover the spread too, twenty three to
Speaker 3: seventeen in this game because of the defense. It's just
Speaker 3: such a mismatch. Drake may is doing the best that
Speaker 3: he can back there. But I thought even last week
Speaker 3: against Chicago, a little up and down out of the
Speaker 3: rookie quarterback. And now you have to go against one
Speaker 3: of the best defensive lines in the league. It's time
Speaker 3: like we can just call them that, like the numbers
Speaker 3: say it, the eye test says it, the talent says it.
Speaker 3: Jared Verse and the rest of this game with Kobe Turner,
Speaker 3: that is such a big mismatch. I think the Rams win,
Speaker 3: and they win big enough because of their defense.
Speaker 4: Rite it down in penn as well. A Kyron Williams
Speaker 4: return to the end zone. It hasn't happened in two games.
Speaker 4: It hasn't happened on the ground in three games, but
Speaker 4: I like him to score a touchdown this weekend.
Speaker 2: He is. Let's go to the Raiders and Dolphins. They
Speaker 2: seem to beat the Rams as they try to win
Speaker 2: two in a row for the first time all season.
Speaker 2: Do they get it done here?
Speaker 4: Yep, they do twenty six to seventeen in this matchup.
Speaker 4: I know that there's a lot of different things on
Speaker 4: this offense for the Raiders, but one thing that's consistent
Speaker 4: for the Dolphins number ten. If you're looking at the
Speaker 4: opportunity when there's quick passes to number ten in space,
Speaker 4: the Raiders defense, they don't have any answer to this. Really,
Speaker 4: they don't have any good answers. Both him and a
Speaker 4: Chan are going to have huge games. I think that
Speaker 4: is a difference maker, and also the catch and run
Speaker 4: this is I know I feel mean to the Raiders
Speaker 4: because I think it's going to be exciting with the
Speaker 4: new offensive coordinator, some great new things going on. But
Speaker 4: I still think Dolphins get it done.
Speaker 5: I disagree. I think the Raiders cover.
Speaker 6: I think I think you're say the Raiders are going
Speaker 6: to win too.
Speaker 5: Much for this Dolphins team.
Speaker 3: Bad offensive line right now, and the Raiders pass rush
Speaker 3: is pretty good.
Speaker 2: They core, well, we'll see they get some. Tom mollf
Speaker 2: let's go to the Battle for Texas going down Monday
Speaker 2: night in Dallas. Texan's coming off a devastating loss on
Speaker 2: that Jig batesfield goal. I think that they bounced back
Speaker 2: here and win at twenty three to ten. And congratulations
Speaker 2: to c. J. Stroud because he gets back the leading
Speaker 2: receiver for the Houston Texans. Yes, still, despite not playing
Speaker 2: since October sixth, Nico Collins still leads the Texans in
Speaker 2: receiving yards. To play against Cooper Rush or Trey Lance.
Speaker 2: You know Nico won't have to play against the Sun
Speaker 2: because the game's at night. So a big win and
Speaker 2: a big bounce back win for the Houston Texans. We're
Speaker 2: not done here yet. On Game Deview up next, we're
Speaker 2: giving you some of our favorite player props for Week eleven.
Speaker 2: Greg's didn't hit last week, so he.
Speaker 3: Owes you all his seller the week before, which we
Speaker 3: will get you the week before that numbers going out.
Speaker 2: One at a time. We come back here on Game
Speaker 2: Deviet Sunday at nine am Eastern Rich Eisen, Kurt Warner,
Speaker 2: Cidia Friedland, and the whole game. Get you set for
Speaker 2: NFL Game Day morning. Lil Lane joins the show live
Speaker 2: to talk about his beloved Green Bay Packers, plus the guys,
Speaker 2: tell us why Josh Allen and the Bills can spoil
Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs perfect season, all that and
Speaker 2: more Sunday at nine a m. Eastern.
Speaker 6: I am not shorter than right.
Speaker 5: You are not shorter than a little way in either. No,
Speaker 5: another member of the cast now that you're holler them.
Speaker 2: Weezf baby, and he ain't asthmatic sound for write this
Speaker 2: down here on Game Debut as we get to some
Speaker 2: of our favorite predictions for the week, and we're gonna
Speaker 2: have to have notes because our Greg's platon playing catch up.
Speaker 3: Okay, yeah, I feel a personal responsibility Game Debut viewers
Speaker 3: because I've been killing.
Speaker 5: It with the picks this year.
Speaker 3: We've been on fire, and yet my write this downs
Speaker 3: have been struggling. So I'm giving you a winner and
Speaker 3: I'm gonna combine them this week.
Speaker 5: Two picks smash him up.
Speaker 3: Packers covering the five and a half points against the Bears,
Speaker 3: one of my favorite lines of the whole season. This
Speaker 3: Bears team, It's over over like they have given up
Speaker 3: on this coach staff. They're not talented, they're not cohesive.
Speaker 3: It's not happening. Packers cover. But you put that in
Speaker 3: one bucket and you combine it with Josh Jacobs seventy
Speaker 3: one and a half rushing yards more. I told you
Speaker 3: earlier how bad this rush defense is without Andrew Billings.
Speaker 3: The sexy Andrew Billings got. Josh Jacob's rushing attack for
Speaker 3: the Packers is going to be sexy as hell.
Speaker 5: He might hit this in the first half.
Speaker 3: So Packers cover, Packers and Josh Jacobs over seventy one
Speaker 3: and a half.
Speaker 4: It's just the opportunity to package picks.
Speaker 6: Come on, He's literally package anyways. So let's go with mine.
Speaker 4: I have Alvin Kamara to have more than thirty nine
Speaker 4: and a half receiving yards. You talked about those Miles
Speaker 4: Garrett pressures. They're coming fast, baby. Derek Carr is going
Speaker 4: to need to get rid of the football. Are there
Speaker 4: the regular normal amount of receivers for him?
Speaker 5: Huh?
Speaker 4: He was finding guys that we didn't even think would
Speaker 4: be a part of the game play.
Speaker 6: On last week.
Speaker 4: So if you don't think Alvin Kamara is going to
Speaker 4: have at least forty yards.
Speaker 6: Yikes, you can package that with love eggs.
Speaker 2: Love package all all of our picks together. But we'll
Speaker 2: see if secretly I've been sneaking Greg's phone number into
Speaker 2: all of my picks. For just kidding it. Cooper Rush
Speaker 2: will throw for under one hundred and eighty three and
Speaker 2: passing yards against the Texans, and it's making these safe picks,
Speaker 2: Greg that have gotten me to seven and three on
Speaker 2: the season. On write this down, because yes, I don't
Speaker 2: think he's going to have forty five passing yards that
Speaker 2: he did his first start of the season against the Eagles.
Speaker 2: I think he might get even double that. But there's
Speaker 2: also the potential that Cooper Rush might not play the.
Speaker 5: Entire gam make it to the end of the game.
Speaker 5: So that's great.
Speaker 2: So yeah, come join me on a journey into safety.
Speaker 2: Thanks for watching. Game Debut presented by Mercedes Bins for
Speaker 2: Cynthia Freeland and Greg Rosental. I'm Patrick Claibhn. We'll see
Speaker 2: you next week.
Speaker 1: NFL Game Deview is a production of the NFL in
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