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Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a days, Bloomberg dot com,

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Speaker 1: the Radio plus mobile app and on your radio. This

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Speaker 1: is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm camerin Moscow. These

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Speaker 1: updates brought to you by the accountants and advisers at

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Speaker 1: Oisner Amper. Cyber security is on the mind of every

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Speaker 1: business leader. Managing cyber risk should be to get started

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Speaker 1: at the cyber Risk Assessment Learn more. Eisner Apper dot

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Speaker 1: com slash cyber risk us DOCK Index futures now that'll

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Speaker 1: change to lower as oil falter as well, investors turn

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Speaker 1: their focus to economic data SNP even A futures down

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Speaker 1: two and a half points now, Emiti futures down ten,

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Speaker 1: nasdac EMUNI futures down one. The decks in Germany also

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Speaker 1: has turned lower, down two tenths per set ten. Your

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Speaker 1: treasury little change, you know the one point seven five

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Speaker 1: per set Now, I'm ex scret oil now down to

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Speaker 1: tenths per cent er seven cents to forty seven sixties

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Speaker 1: six of barrel comex gol. That'll change at twelve seventy

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Speaker 1: four fifty and ounce the euro at other thirteen twenty two.

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Speaker 1: The en one oh nine point four five and watching

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Speaker 1: home Depot after first quarter profit beat, analysts estimates shares

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Speaker 1: up nine tenths per set. As a Bloomberg business flash,

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Speaker 1: Tom and Mike Karen thanks so much. Some people talk,

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Speaker 1: other people actually get on airplanes and do im Visa

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Speaker 1: has done that with the International Monetary fun particularly working

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Speaker 1: on Egypt, Russia and Ukraine in the i m F

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Speaker 1: mission to provide stability there. He is now with Black

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Speaker 1: Rock working with their America's Fixed Income Group um are

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Speaker 1: very quickly, and this may be tangential the state of

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Speaker 1: Egypt right now. Are they're getting back to some normality

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Speaker 1: of capitalism. Is there's still so much tumult that we

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Speaker 1: can't make a judgment. Unfortunately. I think it's a lot

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Speaker 1: that I think there's a way too much to them.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they're facing significant shocks at this point, whether

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Speaker 1: it's smaller order prices um and and and it's shifting

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Speaker 1: regime in terms of monetary policy and fiscal policy. It's

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Speaker 1: too early to be too optimistic at this point. There's

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Speaker 1: some normalcitis un stability, but I think it's too early

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Speaker 1: at this point to be convinced staying in the region.

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Speaker 1: What about Turkey, I mean, you've got a country there

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Speaker 1: that has gone through political upheaval. At the same time,

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Speaker 1: it's trying to remain relatively stable and not cut off

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Speaker 1: the West. No, yes, I mean Turkey is one of

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Speaker 1: those really complicated issues. I mean, on the one hand,

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Speaker 1: the economy itself, I keep on saying, is in a

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Speaker 1: decently balanced position. Does an economy unlike many other emation

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Speaker 1: markets that knows how to grow growth is continues to

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Speaker 1: be quite resilient. They've been extremely lucky with loyal old prices,

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Speaker 1: so current account has improved significantly, and to their credit,

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Speaker 1: they've actually maintained good fiscal position. So I mean, you

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Speaker 1: put this together, it's it's it's a good story economically.

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Speaker 1: The problem is politics, right, The problem is how do

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Speaker 1: you deal with this transition from parliamentary to presidenture that

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Speaker 1: all of the new president the independence of the central bank.

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Speaker 1: So we sort of to be part of honest with

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Speaker 1: stopping backwards here and just monitoring it closely. It's tough

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Speaker 1: to take a view strong view on that. At this point,

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Speaker 1: I thought, you know, it was exactly a cute and

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Speaker 1: the one surprise that I had. I mean, there's a

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Speaker 1: new enthusiasm for Brazil. Obviously, Argentina, but Indonesia, I would

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Speaker 1: suggest the most investors is a mystery cut to the chase.

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Speaker 1: Where's the opportunity across the sprawl that is Indonesia. Now

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Speaker 1: that's one actually precisely because I think a lot of

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Speaker 1: people are are not on top of it. Um, this

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Speaker 1: is an economy that's going in significant rerating here, right,

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Speaker 1: this is a new president who came two years ago,

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Speaker 1: significant amount of reform. There is serious problem on the

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Speaker 1: macro side. They've dealt with it with the current account disappearing.

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Speaker 1: At this point the economy is now picking up again.

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Speaker 1: UM and and rates and and the value is it's

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Speaker 1: significant in terms of our surprices, I mean sort of.

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Speaker 1: You look at real rate at interstrate at not for

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Speaker 1: seven seven a half percent for a country that is growing,

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Speaker 1: no external imbalanced, low inflation, credible central bankuets cutting into strates,

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Speaker 1: I think a good story there. Well, you're telling individual

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Speaker 1: stories about these countries, and it makes me think that, um,

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Speaker 1: perhaps we too often shorthand things as emerging markets and uh,

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Speaker 1: we look at the impact of the u S central

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Speaker 1: emerging markets as opposed to the individual stories in each country.

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Speaker 1: Are they differentiated enough? Yeah? No, that's uh. I tend

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Speaker 1: to start always from the bottom of country by country,

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Speaker 1: and then that's how you make money or lose money

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Speaker 1: emerging markets. It doesn't mean that the global story is

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Speaker 1: not important. It's just that we now seem to be

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Speaker 1: in a nice window. Right. You have all prices that

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Speaker 1: are said in time matters a lot to us. The

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Speaker 1: fact seems to be off the hawkish path. That's very

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Speaker 1: positive for emerging markets, partly because of dollar. It's slightly

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Speaker 1: a weaker weaker and China uppears to have short circuit

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Speaker 1: it it's spanic, so we seem to have a global wind.

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Speaker 1: Do we have to start by playing some of them more?

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Speaker 1: I do think ectic stories some of them more, which,

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Speaker 1: at the end of the day, as I was saying,

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Speaker 1: is really what matters when you want to invest. I

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Speaker 1: want to go off script here. It's a short time

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Speaker 1: we have with you, and we want to get you

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Speaker 1: back on soon. The Wall Street Journal today advances forward

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Speaker 1: the story on Greece and the idea of an institution

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Speaker 1: the I M F saying, look, here's the rules. Two

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Speaker 1: thousand forty one coup and no interest in principle pay

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Speaker 1: for a gazillion years, even decades. Are those institutions do

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Speaker 1: they have the power? I mean, you worked at the

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Speaker 1: I m F. Is it a new more powerful I

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Speaker 1: M F. Or is Europe gonna blink and say no, uh?

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Speaker 1: Is it? It's Unfortunately it's one of those inter creditor

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Speaker 1: foot fight to use a technical term, with with Greece

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Speaker 1: falling between the butt as the results of it. It's

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Speaker 1: a big conflict between i'mp and Germany right now, and

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Speaker 1: I'm after my mind reasonably saying there's a DestinE sendability problem.

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Speaker 1: Firstcal adjustment it is not the answer you need to

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Speaker 1: deal with the debt. The Europeans are saying no, no no, no,

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Speaker 1: there's need for further fiscal adjustment, further for contitling from here.

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Speaker 1: I didn't. Eventually a compromise works, but also is the

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Speaker 1: case in international institutions. I think you'll end up with

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Speaker 1: the combination of both some fiscal tightening and hopefully some

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Speaker 1: of that relief and and and the best thing of

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Speaker 1: the best way of looking at Greece is it's it's

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Speaker 1: an equity, not a debt. They're not. This is not

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Speaker 1: a country that's going to be able to pay. It's

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Speaker 1: that The question is can you roll it over for Ethnosem,

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Speaker 1: and I think the answer is yes, it is the

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Speaker 1: contagion from Greece over for now. I think that the

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Speaker 1: answer is yes for now. I mean, obviously these are

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Speaker 1: these things. You can never be completely certain. But for

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Speaker 1: now it looks like we're significantly of the of the

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Speaker 1: ledge on Greece and we're just waiting for that intercreditor

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Speaker 1: intercreditor agreement and compromise. Let's thank you so much. I

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Speaker 1: remember besides with black Lack working with emerging Marcus, that

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Speaker 1: was that was fun like that. That was just we

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Speaker 1: were sort of all over the place, but very very

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Speaker 1: informative and that caution, that great caution. And Egypt as well,

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Speaker 1: where he did some important work with the IM of

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Speaker 1: years ago. Yeah, bringing this up today, I think we

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Speaker 1: need to book some of our Greek are Athens based

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Speaker 1: uh contributors. That's uh. The Leguard article in the Wall

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Speaker 1: Street Journal this morning advancing the story of the I

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Speaker 1: m F according to people familiar um asking for some

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Speaker 1: pretty tough terms. You wonder how it will play in

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Speaker 1: Germany towards important meetings meetings in Europe. Futures of negative

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Speaker 1: to down futures negative nine again one O nine around

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Speaker 1: the world, Bloomberg surveillance. Bloomberg surveillance brought you by S,

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