1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:02,800 Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. 2 00:00:03,040 --> 00:00:07,120 Speaker 2: Do us proud read a lot? They're up for running 3 00:00:07,120 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 2: a game so smooth, so sweet. 4 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:16,760 Speaker 1: Splendid sisting just glorious. 5 00:00:16,760 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 3: Ex procution, guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, 6 00:00:20,920 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 3: four thousand percent of the time. 7 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:26,600 Speaker 2: How shot with that shop of mind? But buddy, and 8 00:00:26,680 --> 00:00:27,200 Speaker 2: that's why you. 9 00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:29,400 Speaker 1: See nor beautiful tiers. 10 00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:32,240 Speaker 2: Look at his movements the most dangerous amount of the planet. 11 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:33,240 Speaker 2: Nobody picks them. 12 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:43,520 Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying again. The wall it's left too, 13 00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 1: the wide eyed drilled fibus, How old earth big that happens? 14 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:53,240 Speaker 3: Hello everybody, and welcome back to Wonderful, the soccer betting 15 00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 3: podcast from the Action netwhere my name is Michael Leebaff 16 00:00:55,960 --> 00:00:59,080 Speaker 3: and joining me today is my friend and Action colleague 17 00:00:59,160 --> 00:00:59,960 Speaker 3: BJ Cunninghan. 18 00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:00,840 Speaker 2: Bj. 19 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 3: It's March madness, but there's also a light slate of 20 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:10,120 Speaker 3: Premier League matches and some interesting European showdowns this weekend, 21 00:01:10,319 --> 00:01:13,200 Speaker 3: including El Classico, but we'll get to that one. We'll 22 00:01:13,240 --> 00:01:17,320 Speaker 3: start in the Premier League first with Wolverhampton and Leads. 23 00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 3: Wolves in this one are plus one twenty, Leads plus 24 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:23,120 Speaker 3: two thirty. The draw is plus two fifty. This is 25 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:26,560 Speaker 3: a Friday night Lights kickoff four pm Eastern Time. I 26 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:28,440 Speaker 3: think the question that Betters need to figure out with 27 00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:32,360 Speaker 3: Leads is just how much of the Jesse Marsh revolution 28 00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:35,200 Speaker 3: is real or were they just kind of propped up 29 00:01:35,240 --> 00:01:38,959 Speaker 3: by a good scheduling spot taking on Norwich City. Even so, 30 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:42,360 Speaker 3: in his three matches, five goals allowed, two goals for, 31 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 3: five point three five expectacles for and three point h 32 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 3: three against. They only created point one to nine expected 33 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 3: goals against Villa. And I mean this match you're talking 34 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:54,080 Speaker 3: about Wolverhampton. I think they're better than Villa so and 35 00:01:54,520 --> 00:01:56,480 Speaker 3: they're great defensive side. So are we going to see 36 00:01:56,520 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 3: Leads struggle to create offense against this team? Does that 37 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:01,800 Speaker 3: put value on Wolves? 38 00:02:01,840 --> 00:02:01,920 Speaker 2: Well? 39 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:04,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, And what's interesting about this one is for Leeds, 40 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 1: this really isn't that good of a matchup if they 41 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:10,000 Speaker 1: continue to play this high pressing type style because Wolves 42 00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:13,760 Speaker 1: has the biggest counter attacking profile in the entire Premier League, 43 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 1: so they could just counter attack Leads to death, which 44 00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:18,240 Speaker 1: was they kind of did in the last meeting. If 45 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:21,360 Speaker 1: you remember, it was Wolves scored in like the tenth 46 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:23,040 Speaker 1: minute and that was at the peak of where we 47 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:25,160 Speaker 1: thought Wolves was kind of you know, underrated, and we 48 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 1: were getting a good price on Leads, and for whatever reason, 49 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:30,400 Speaker 1: Wolves just packed it in for the remaining eighty minutes 50 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:32,720 Speaker 1: and they had some chances on the counter, but Leads 51 00:02:32,800 --> 00:02:33,840 Speaker 1: ultimately got a penalty in the. 52 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:35,600 Speaker 2: Ninety fourth minute to draw with Wolves. 53 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:38,600 Speaker 1: So it'll be interesting to see if Wolves does something 54 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:39,720 Speaker 1: similar to that, my guess. 55 00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:41,280 Speaker 2: I mean, that's what they've done all season. 56 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:44,000 Speaker 1: But as we've been talking about quite a bit, they 57 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:47,160 Speaker 1: are pretty big over over performers plus six actual goal 58 00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:51,399 Speaker 1: differential minus twelve point six expected goal differential. Their offense 59 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 1: is the one that's now completely overperforming. They have scored 60 00:02:56,240 --> 00:02:58,320 Speaker 1: five goals in their last two matches off of one 61 00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:01,400 Speaker 1: point eight expected goals and I've only created over one 62 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:05,119 Speaker 1: expected goal in their last eight matches. But again you're 63 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:07,560 Speaker 1: facing Leeds, who I understand in a couple of matches 64 00:03:07,600 --> 00:03:10,320 Speaker 1: under Jesse Marsh has looked better, but giving up over 65 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:12,920 Speaker 1: one point one expected goals to Norwich and allowing them 66 00:03:12,919 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 1: to create two big scoring chances is a little concerning 67 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:18,240 Speaker 1: giving how bad their offense is. So I think Wolves 68 00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:21,240 Speaker 1: is definitely a little bit undervalued here in the market, 69 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:23,919 Speaker 1: even though that they have been overperforming all season. 70 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 2: The big thing is Wolves. 71 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:29,680 Speaker 1: You know, obviously defensively, like we've said, they're pretty overrated, 72 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:32,680 Speaker 1: but they are outstanding at preventing big scoring chances, only 73 00:03:32,680 --> 00:03:35,480 Speaker 1: twenty three conceded on the season, which is fourth best 74 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 1: in the Premier League. Additionally, their defense is actually put 75 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 1: up back to back pretty good performances from underlying standpoint 76 00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 1: only zero point nine allowed to Watford in point five 77 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 1: allowed to Everton. So at plus one twenty it's actually 78 00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 1: I think a decent price on Wolves. I haven't projected 79 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:52,720 Speaker 1: at minus one oh one, So I like Wolves plus 80 00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:54,920 Speaker 1: one twenty at home to grab all three points against Leeds. 81 00:03:55,160 --> 00:03:55,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you. 82 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:57,920 Speaker 3: I think plus one twenty is a good price at home. 83 00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:03,000 Speaker 3: Leads didn't score that ninety third minute winner against York City. 84 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:06,000 Speaker 3: This number would be in a pretty different deigration. 85 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:06,560 Speaker 2: Time if they didn't get that. 86 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:10,000 Speaker 3: Yeah that's true too, But I mean that's the other thing, 87 00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 3: Like both of these teams at this time of year, 88 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:13,760 Speaker 3: you got to talk about the stakes, and both of 89 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:16,479 Speaker 3: these teams are playing for something. Wolves is looking to 90 00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:20,440 Speaker 3: play the way into Europa League or European competition. Leads 91 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:23,800 Speaker 3: obviously in a relegation fight, so that's a wash. And yeah, 92 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 3: I think Wolves is a good price here plus one twenty. 93 00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:29,280 Speaker 3: All right, we'll move to Saturday for a game between 94 00:04:29,320 --> 00:04:34,440 Speaker 3: Astonville and your Arsenal gunners man. The Arsenal they put 95 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:37,080 Speaker 3: forth a great effort through the first sixty five minutes 96 00:04:37,080 --> 00:04:41,120 Speaker 3: against Liverpool, came undone by a soft goal and from 97 00:04:41,160 --> 00:04:42,839 Speaker 3: that point on weren't a little bit of trouble and 98 00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:46,159 Speaker 3: lost to nil. Villa, on the other hand, their offense 99 00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:48,960 Speaker 3: is starting to trend up. It really started to sputter 100 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:51,680 Speaker 3: after like ten or so games under Gerard, but six 101 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:53,919 Speaker 3: point four to seven expected goals for in their last 102 00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:57,360 Speaker 3: four matches and this could be a letdown spot for Arsenal, 103 00:04:57,400 --> 00:04:59,400 Speaker 3: I think coming off of that loss. Not to mention 104 00:04:59,839 --> 00:05:02,880 Speaker 3: the rest spot, so I think the market is right here. 105 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:05,919 Speaker 3: If Villa does get higher than where they're at right now, 106 00:05:05,960 --> 00:05:08,440 Speaker 3: they're plus two ten if they go to like towards 107 00:05:08,440 --> 00:05:10,359 Speaker 3: two thirty. If I can find them in that area, 108 00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:13,960 Speaker 3: I'll look to play aston Villa at home. Anything for 109 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:15,320 Speaker 3: you Arsenal and Villa. 110 00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 2: No, but I agree with you. I think the line 111 00:05:17,480 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 2: is pretty much dead on. 112 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:20,919 Speaker 1: What I will say is that this is a pretty 113 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:22,680 Speaker 1: good matchup for Arsenal if they can put the game 114 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:25,279 Speaker 1: against Liverpool binding because they did play really well, like 115 00:05:25,320 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 1: you said, up until the sixty fifth minute, and they 116 00:05:27,080 --> 00:05:30,280 Speaker 1: basically made two mistakes for the entire match, and a 117 00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 1: team like Liverpool, who's one of the best teams in Europe, 118 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:34,760 Speaker 1: will punish you if you do that. Now, aston Villa, 119 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:38,000 Speaker 1: like we've spoken about, it's not that great offensively under 120 00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:40,360 Speaker 1: Jerrard a little only around one point one expected goals 121 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:43,719 Speaker 1: per match. They have been over performing a tad over 122 00:05:43,760 --> 00:05:45,280 Speaker 1: the past few you know, they put four in the 123 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:47,920 Speaker 1: back of the net against Southampton and three against Leeds. 124 00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:51,520 Speaker 1: They only created four point four expected goals in those 125 00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:54,960 Speaker 1: two matches, so some offensive regression is definitely coming for 126 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:57,120 Speaker 1: aston Villa. But again, this is a really really good 127 00:05:57,920 --> 00:06:02,760 Speaker 1: structured defense under Jerrard. It's from price standpoint, you know, 128 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:04,800 Speaker 1: I think I'm pretty I have Arsenal at plus one 129 00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:08,280 Speaker 1: thirty two so in the over under at two point 130 00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:11,560 Speaker 1: five seven, so I'm pretty much dead on here with 131 00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:14,599 Speaker 1: the market, so I will ultimately passing. But man, I 132 00:06:14,720 --> 00:06:17,000 Speaker 1: just hold my gunners can can get three points from 133 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:19,640 Speaker 1: this one, because it would be huge to start to 134 00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:22,920 Speaker 1: get closer and closer to skeering securing that fourth spot. 135 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, basically every part of the season is still up 136 00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:29,800 Speaker 3: for grabs, from the title race to European competition and. 137 00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:32,160 Speaker 1: Ask it doesn't only have much to play for as 138 00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:34,680 Speaker 1: we get I mean, they're you know, if they completely 139 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:36,800 Speaker 1: fall off, then yeah, they might be in some type 140 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:40,040 Speaker 1: of relegation fight. But I mean it's they're sitting with 141 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:42,720 Speaker 1: thirty six points. Usually they say when you get to forty, 142 00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:44,599 Speaker 1: you're pretty much set and you're fine. 143 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:47,480 Speaker 3: This year, it's this year, it's gonna be like thirty three. 144 00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:49,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, they're gonna be big table. 145 00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:53,799 Speaker 3: That's the the I think that there's a very select 146 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:56,360 Speaker 3: few teams that really have nothing to play for right now. 147 00:06:56,880 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 3: Villa is certainly one of them, and another one is 148 00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:02,839 Speaker 3: Leicester City, who are plus one fifteen hosting Brentford plus 149 00:07:02,839 --> 00:07:05,600 Speaker 3: two to fifty five. The draw here is plus two forty. 150 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 3: Brentford have climbed towards safety. They now have thirty points 151 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:13,200 Speaker 3: from twenty nine games and are eight points above Watford 152 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:15,920 Speaker 3: and nine points above Burnley, but Burnley has two games 153 00:07:15,920 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 3: in hand. Everdon has three games in hand and are 154 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:22,880 Speaker 3: also eight points back of Brentford as well. But I 155 00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:25,280 Speaker 3: do think and I know, the quality of competition hasn't 156 00:07:25,320 --> 00:07:28,640 Speaker 3: been great with Brentford. In these last two performances, they 157 00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:30,440 Speaker 3: beat Norwich City and they were full value and they 158 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:33,480 Speaker 3: were winning against Burnley. However, those were high stakes matches, 159 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:37,040 Speaker 3: so they showed up in two huge matches in their 160 00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:39,080 Speaker 3: first season in the Premier League. So I'm kind of 161 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:41,960 Speaker 3: drawing a line through the quality of competition and instead 162 00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:44,720 Speaker 3: saying this team played well under pressure and I think 163 00:07:44,720 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 3: that they can get the job done here at a 164 00:07:46,840 --> 00:07:49,440 Speaker 3: good number against Lester who, like I said, they don't 165 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:51,360 Speaker 3: have anything to play for and their defense is still 166 00:07:51,360 --> 00:07:54,440 Speaker 3: a mess ten point one expected goals allowed over their 167 00:07:54,480 --> 00:07:56,680 Speaker 3: last six they have been one of the worst defensive 168 00:07:56,680 --> 00:07:59,800 Speaker 3: outfits the season in the Premier League. There's seventeenth and 169 00:07:59,840 --> 00:08:02,560 Speaker 3: nine penalty expected goals allowed, fourteenth and big chances allowed, 170 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:06,520 Speaker 3: eighteenth in box entries allowed. So Brentford should score here 171 00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:09,040 Speaker 3: and if they can continue to play a little bit 172 00:08:09,080 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 3: better defensively, I like them here as a for a 173 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:13,880 Speaker 3: potential upset at plus two fifty five. 174 00:08:13,960 --> 00:08:15,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, I absolutely agree with you. There's a lot of 175 00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:17,560 Speaker 1: advantages I think for Brentford. You had the nail on 176 00:08:17,600 --> 00:08:20,720 Speaker 1: the head as we finally saw two good performances from 177 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:23,360 Speaker 1: them and getting some of that positive aggression back that 178 00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:24,680 Speaker 1: we've been talking about during their. 179 00:08:24,520 --> 00:08:25,680 Speaker 2: Losing streak Lester. 180 00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:28,760 Speaker 1: What's been surprising is obviously their defense continues to be terrible, 181 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:31,120 Speaker 1: like you said, but only five point five expected goals 182 00:08:31,120 --> 00:08:33,600 Speaker 1: created in their last six so that is very bad 183 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:36,200 Speaker 1: when your defense is still trending as one of the 184 00:08:36,240 --> 00:08:39,280 Speaker 1: worst in the Premier League. The biggest thing in this matchup, 185 00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:43,360 Speaker 1: Brdford is the most efficient team in the Premier League 186 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:45,800 Speaker 1: off of set pieces in corners, and we've talked about 187 00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:47,960 Speaker 1: many times Lester has allowed the most goals off of 188 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:51,760 Speaker 1: corners this season fourteen I believe to be exact. 189 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:54,480 Speaker 2: So you know, at a price of plus one fifteen. 190 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 1: With Lester not really have much to play for, they 191 00:08:56,280 --> 00:08:59,560 Speaker 1: have a europe Conference League match against Ren on Thursday, 192 00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 1: so they'll have a lot of short rest coming into 193 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:04,480 Speaker 1: this one as well, so uh when and also with 194 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 1: him still having to play without Johnny Evans and Daniel 195 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 1: Armadi out a position it creates it still is just 196 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:12,480 Speaker 1: it's just created a lot of problems for the Lester 197 00:09:12,600 --> 00:09:15,080 Speaker 1: even though they've played him and Suncle have played together 198 00:09:15,160 --> 00:09:15,600 Speaker 1: quite a bit. 199 00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:16,920 Speaker 2: It just doesn't work. 200 00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:19,640 Speaker 1: They need Johnny Evans back and to have those two 201 00:09:19,640 --> 00:09:23,120 Speaker 1: playing together to actually have this defense be somewhat respectable. 202 00:09:23,440 --> 00:09:27,360 Speaker 1: So I am with you. I love Brentford. Plus half 203 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:29,640 Speaker 1: a goal and minus one twenty five. I think we're 204 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 1: going to start to see the Bees trend in that 205 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:35,840 Speaker 1: positive direction after this big, long losing streak. 206 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 3: Buzz baby, go Bees. But I mean it's not good 207 00:09:39,559 --> 00:09:43,000 Speaker 3: for everything. But anyways, fine, it's fine. 208 00:09:43,000 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 2: We talked about it, we got through. It's fine. 209 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:48,400 Speaker 3: I got recording this before the Newcastle match. 210 00:09:48,440 --> 00:09:50,800 Speaker 1: So they got an f A Cup against Crystal Palace 211 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:51,800 Speaker 1: this weekend. 212 00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:52,760 Speaker 2: They can move on in that. 213 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:58,079 Speaker 3: Oh my god, all right, Tottenham Hotspur. Anthony Dubundo he's 214 00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:00,440 Speaker 3: sent with us today. He is going to Vegas for 215 00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:01,160 Speaker 3: march Manness. 216 00:10:01,640 --> 00:10:04,480 Speaker 1: You know what's funny, Michael, is that Anthony Demundo, a 217 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:06,960 Speaker 1: young kid who has no responsibilities in life except for 218 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 1: just doing this podcast twice a week, can't even come on. 219 00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:10,560 Speaker 2: Twice a week. 220 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:13,400 Speaker 1: He's just gallivanting all around the country while we try 221 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:15,600 Speaker 1: to sit down here and hold the fort down. 222 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:18,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, this is this is something that will 223 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 3: come up in his annual review for sure, and the 224 00:10:21,800 --> 00:10:23,880 Speaker 3: good news is he won't be here to talk about 225 00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 3: Tottenham Hotspur, who are minus won thirty five hosting west 226 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:29,640 Speaker 3: Ham plus three seventy. The draw here is three to one, 227 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:33,040 Speaker 3: and I like west Ham. I think that they are improving. 228 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:36,559 Speaker 3: They're getting closer to the form that we saw towards 229 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 3: the beginning of the season when they were a top 230 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:42,119 Speaker 3: four side in the Premier League. And Tenham like, for 231 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:45,960 Speaker 3: all their impressive performances that they've pulled out, whether it 232 00:10:45,960 --> 00:10:49,520 Speaker 3: be against VN City or whoever evert in like, they 233 00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:52,400 Speaker 3: are still incredibly inconsistent. Four wins, four losses, I believe 234 00:10:52,400 --> 00:10:54,240 Speaker 3: in their last eight in the Premier League. So this 235 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:57,800 Speaker 3: is a team that if their mistake prone, they are 236 00:10:58,400 --> 00:11:01,920 Speaker 3: just honestly and con so I don't ever mind taking 237 00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:04,600 Speaker 3: a shot against his team with an especially with another 238 00:11:04,640 --> 00:11:05,760 Speaker 3: good team at a big number. 239 00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:07,679 Speaker 2: So think plus three seventy at west. 240 00:11:07,480 --> 00:11:09,480 Speaker 3: Ham is no, no, no, you can thumb your nose at 241 00:11:09,559 --> 00:11:11,520 Speaker 3: So I'll look to back the Hammer's here. 242 00:11:11,640 --> 00:11:14,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, I do like west Ham in this one. 243 00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:17,560 Speaker 1: The thing about Tottenham is, yes, they've you know, they 244 00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:19,480 Speaker 1: put five in the back and then that on Everton. 245 00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:22,240 Speaker 1: They want you know, two today against Brighton. But they've 246 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:26,360 Speaker 1: been over performing pretty drastically last six matches fourteen goals 247 00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:29,120 Speaker 1: off of nine point four expected, so that's definitely going 248 00:11:29,160 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 1: to trend towards the me and west Ham has been 249 00:11:32,559 --> 00:11:35,080 Speaker 1: improving defensively. You know, they allowed two and a half 250 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:38,600 Speaker 1: expected goals to Liverpool, but outside of that in February 251 00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:41,320 Speaker 1: they haven't allowed over one point three expecting goals to anybody, 252 00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:47,360 Speaker 1: including against Sevilla against Lester. It's been a pretty right 253 00:11:47,440 --> 00:11:49,959 Speaker 1: the ship type of month for west Ham, who's starting 254 00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:50,640 Speaker 1: to play a lot better. 255 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:51,559 Speaker 2: The biggest thing though for. 256 00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:54,120 Speaker 1: The Hammers is Jared Bone is still out, which is 257 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:54,520 Speaker 1: not good. 258 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 2: Obviously they have they now. 259 00:11:56,320 --> 00:11:59,719 Speaker 1: After signing some other guys like Vlassic and you know 260 00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:02,840 Speaker 1: obviously have yar malinco as well. They're starting to trend 261 00:12:02,880 --> 00:12:06,520 Speaker 1: in the right direction offensively, some better performances. The win 262 00:12:06,520 --> 00:12:08,760 Speaker 1: against d Astonville was obviously a step in the right direction. 263 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:11,559 Speaker 1: The game against Liverpool was honestly the step in the 264 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:13,319 Speaker 1: right direction. They had a big chance in that one 265 00:12:13,400 --> 00:12:14,840 Speaker 1: to put one in the back of the net and 266 00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:15,720 Speaker 1: just couldn't convert it. 267 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:17,200 Speaker 2: So I agree with you. 268 00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:19,520 Speaker 1: I think the price is a little inflated on Tottenham, 269 00:12:19,520 --> 00:12:21,680 Speaker 1: and I think you'll probably end up getting a better 270 00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:23,640 Speaker 1: price on west Ham as the days go on here, 271 00:12:23,640 --> 00:12:27,160 Speaker 1: because obviously we just saw we just saw Tottenham beat 272 00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:31,600 Speaker 1: Brighton on Wednesday. West Ham has a Europa League match 273 00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:34,240 Speaker 1: against Savilla on Thursday. It is at home in London, 274 00:12:34,280 --> 00:12:36,679 Speaker 1: so you don't have to worry about travel. They are 275 00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:38,320 Speaker 1: down one to zero on aggregate, so if they end 276 00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:42,400 Speaker 1: up losing that tie, we could definitely see a better 277 00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:44,080 Speaker 1: number here on west Ham. So I'm with you, I 278 00:12:44,120 --> 00:12:46,160 Speaker 1: like the Hammers. Both teams to score at minus one 279 00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:48,360 Speaker 1: fifty is also kind of interesting. I think that's a 280 00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:53,680 Speaker 1: tadlow considering how shaky Tottenham's defense done even today against Brighton. 281 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:56,000 Speaker 1: I mean Brighton created one big scoring chance and around 282 00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:58,720 Speaker 1: one point four expected goals and there were swinging and 283 00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:02,599 Speaker 1: crosses left and rights, so it's I think that's a 284 00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:04,160 Speaker 1: pretty low price. So I'm gonna go west Ham yah 285 00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:05,840 Speaker 1: plus half a goal plus one twenty five and then 286 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:08,319 Speaker 1: both teams to score minus one fifty I think is 287 00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:09,000 Speaker 1: a little too low. 288 00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:12,040 Speaker 3: Wonderful, So the Hammers the best. Some of our old 289 00:13:12,080 --> 00:13:15,400 Speaker 3: favorites Wolves too, to get the job done in the 290 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:19,199 Speaker 3: Premier League. Now we'll move on to out Classico Real Madrid. 291 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:22,600 Speaker 3: They are at home plus one ten hosting Barcelona plus 292 00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:25,360 Speaker 3: two to fifty. The draw here is plus two sixty five. 293 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:29,080 Speaker 3: Barcelona and Real Madrid have both been in terrific form 294 00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:31,920 Speaker 3: of late. Domestically, Barsa is seven to and zero win 295 00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:35,000 Speaker 3: draw loss, plus thirteen point two expected goal differential and 296 00:13:35,000 --> 00:13:39,400 Speaker 3: a plus sixteen goal differential. Meanwhile, Real Madrid is six 297 00:13:39,520 --> 00:13:42,000 Speaker 3: two and one in their last nine and La Liga 298 00:13:42,240 --> 00:13:44,720 Speaker 3: they have a plus thirteen point eight expected gole differential 299 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:49,280 Speaker 3: and a plus thirteen goal differential. The thing here is, 300 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:52,160 Speaker 3: I think there's a couple of motivational things to talk about. 301 00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:55,680 Speaker 3: It's been been a lost season for Barcelona, despite the 302 00:13:55,679 --> 00:13:59,080 Speaker 3: fact that they are surging up the table. They found 303 00:13:59,080 --> 00:14:02,880 Speaker 3: their form under job. They've gotten healthy, but they're not 304 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:08,120 Speaker 3: going to be able to catch Real Madrid barring a miracle. However, 305 00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:10,719 Speaker 3: they are still fighting for Champions League spots and this 306 00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:13,040 Speaker 3: is kind of their super Bowl, I would say, whereas 307 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:17,080 Speaker 3: Real Madrid, they have Champions League to still consider and 308 00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:19,840 Speaker 3: are basically in cruse control to win lew LEGA. So 309 00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:22,120 Speaker 3: I do think there's a little bit of value in 310 00:14:22,160 --> 00:14:25,720 Speaker 3: Barcelona if I had to bet it. However, I think 311 00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:29,160 Speaker 3: the number is probably just a shade too low, but 312 00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:30,800 Speaker 3: I'm looking that way. 313 00:14:31,040 --> 00:14:34,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with you. The motivation thing is kind 314 00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:34,840 Speaker 2: of interesting. 315 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:38,200 Speaker 1: Because Real Madrid really doesn't need this match. They could 316 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:41,080 Speaker 1: honestly just put it on cruise control and just you know, 317 00:14:41,120 --> 00:14:44,480 Speaker 1: move on. But again, it's all Classico, so I think 318 00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:47,760 Speaker 1: they'll be up for this one. Barcelona obviously in red 319 00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:48,240 Speaker 1: hot form. 320 00:14:48,280 --> 00:14:49,080 Speaker 2: I mean they've. 321 00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 1: Just they thrashed al so Soon on the weekend they 322 00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:55,120 Speaker 1: beat LJA two to one and created three point six 323 00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:59,600 Speaker 1: to expected goals. They thrashed Athletic Bilbao for nothing, thrashed 324 00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:00,680 Speaker 1: valents you have four to one. 325 00:15:00,960 --> 00:15:02,120 Speaker 2: I mean, they're an amazing form. 326 00:15:02,760 --> 00:15:05,320 Speaker 1: Well, I think there's some potential values that the over 327 00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:07,320 Speaker 1: three goals at plus one five, I have a little 328 00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:10,920 Speaker 1: over three goals projected. The big thing with Real Madrid, 329 00:15:10,960 --> 00:15:12,640 Speaker 1: and we've kind of talked about it all season long, 330 00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:16,640 Speaker 1: is their transition defense is still really quite bad, even 331 00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:19,200 Speaker 1: with Casamiro in there. And now, like you said, with 332 00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:22,320 Speaker 1: Barcelona healthy, having Pedrie and a lot of their attacking 333 00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:25,920 Speaker 1: a lot of attacking options now available up front, it's 334 00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:29,360 Speaker 1: pretty deadly and Barcelona could thrash them apart like PSG 335 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:31,880 Speaker 1: did for a majority of the two legs in the 336 00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:34,440 Speaker 1: Champions League. So I think there's a decent I think 337 00:15:34,800 --> 00:15:36,320 Speaker 1: over three goals at plus one oh five is a 338 00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 1: decent price. Three point four expected goals were created the 339 00:15:39,760 --> 00:15:42,040 Speaker 1: last time these two teams met. That was under Coman 340 00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:45,640 Speaker 1: and then Barcelona definitely did not have the attacking players 341 00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:47,640 Speaker 1: that they have now and they didn't have Petri in 342 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:50,720 Speaker 1: that match. So pretty good price here on think on 343 00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:53,560 Speaker 1: the over. Other than that, I think I will be 344 00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:55,440 Speaker 1: staying away from anything else on on Classico. 345 00:15:56,200 --> 00:15:59,240 Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to Germany and give out 346 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:01,880 Speaker 3: our favorite bets in the Bundesliga. I'm going to go 347 00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:05,600 Speaker 3: prese hunting here with Frankfurt. They're six to one on 348 00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:09,160 Speaker 3: the money line taking on RB Leipzig, whore seven to 349 00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:11,280 Speaker 3: one and one win draw loss with a plus twenty 350 00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:14,440 Speaker 3: nine gold differential. They've been they've been the best team 351 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:18,880 Speaker 3: in the Bundesliga over that span. However, they are overperforming 352 00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:23,520 Speaker 3: like crazy. They're expected gold differential is about twenty goals 353 00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:27,240 Speaker 3: below where their actual goal differential is, and look Frankfurt 354 00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:31,120 Speaker 3: is a mid table pedestrian side, but at some point 355 00:16:31,160 --> 00:16:33,640 Speaker 3: it's going to come crashing down to earth for Leipe's sake, 356 00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:36,360 Speaker 3: and I'll pay the plus six hundred to find out 357 00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:39,680 Speaker 3: if it'll be this weekend against against Frankfort. 358 00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:42,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with you. I mean the over performs 359 00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:45,840 Speaker 1: there is crazy. But I'm going to go while you're 360 00:16:45,880 --> 00:16:51,000 Speaker 1: watching March Madness on Friday afternoon. Bochum against Glodboch. 361 00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:51,640 Speaker 2: Glodboch. 362 00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:55,280 Speaker 1: They finally had a decent defensive performance on Saturday, but 363 00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 1: it was against Hurt Doublin, who's one of the worst 364 00:16:57,120 --> 00:17:01,240 Speaker 1: offenses in the Bundesliga. Bocum started out this season as 365 00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:04,040 Speaker 1: one of the worst offenses in Germany because they were 366 00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:06,679 Speaker 1: a newly promoted team, but they've actually been on fired 367 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:10,960 Speaker 1: the last two months. Since January fifteenth, they are averaging 368 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:13,760 Speaker 1: one point five to six expected goals for match. Before 369 00:17:13,840 --> 00:17:17,000 Speaker 1: January fifteenth only one point zero one expected goals for match. 370 00:17:17,040 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 1: Now they get to face a Glodbock defense that we've 371 00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:22,520 Speaker 1: talked about a lot has completely fallen off a cliff 372 00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:25,440 Speaker 1: and is really showing no signs of improvement. And when 373 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:29,240 Speaker 1: they have to face a decent offense. Since November twenty seventh, 374 00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:31,879 Speaker 1: they are allowing over two expected goals for match in 375 00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:35,359 Speaker 1: thirty big scoring chances in fourteen matches. The only two 376 00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:38,480 Speaker 1: teams that they have kept under one expected goal during 377 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:41,480 Speaker 1: that run is Armenia BA Field and Hurt the Berlin 378 00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:43,920 Speaker 1: last weekend, who are two of the worst three offenses 379 00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:47,119 Speaker 1: in Germany. On the flip side, though, Glodbox offense is 380 00:17:47,160 --> 00:17:49,640 Speaker 1: still performing at a very high level one point six 381 00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:52,600 Speaker 1: y five expected goals per match and they're second in 382 00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:57,520 Speaker 1: Germany in shots per ninety Bochum defensively is pretty horrendous 383 00:17:57,520 --> 00:18:00,240 Speaker 1: when they have to face a talented attacking team. Its 384 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:03,800 Speaker 1: top six offenses. By expecting goals, which Glodbach is included in, 385 00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:07,200 Speaker 1: they allowed sixteen point five expected goals and twenty three 386 00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:10,480 Speaker 1: big scoring chances in eight matches. So I have close 387 00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:13,320 Speaker 1: to three point two goals projected for this one and 388 00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:15,720 Speaker 1: over three goals sitting up plus one twenty five, so 389 00:18:15,760 --> 00:18:17,480 Speaker 1: I really like the price on that. 390 00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:21,240 Speaker 3: I should correct myself plus nineteen goal differential for life 391 00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:24,600 Speaker 3: stating that span and plus eight expected gole differential, so 392 00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:27,560 Speaker 3: they're still overperforming by eleven goals. It's going to come 393 00:18:27,560 --> 00:18:29,800 Speaker 3: down to earth for them at some point in La Liga. 394 00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:32,240 Speaker 3: I talked about it, I'm going to likely be on 395 00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:36,919 Speaker 3: Barcelona in alt Classico. I think you're talking about a 396 00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:39,840 Speaker 3: team that has really found its stride and they're playing 397 00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:42,920 Speaker 3: in their biggest game of the season, whereas for Real 398 00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:46,200 Speaker 3: Madrid there's really not The stakes are really not that high. 399 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:48,000 Speaker 3: This is a team that now he needs to balance 400 00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:51,160 Speaker 3: two competitions there in the quarterfinals for the Champions League. 401 00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:53,840 Speaker 3: So give me Barcelona who are seven to two and 402 00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:56,760 Speaker 3: oh windrow loss in their last nine with plus thirteen 403 00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:59,400 Speaker 3: point two expected gole differential. This team under his Jobbi 404 00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:02,400 Speaker 3: is really already to come together in Galvin Eisen look 405 00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:05,040 Speaker 3: out for them next year. Shouldn't have to be said, 406 00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:07,960 Speaker 3: but Barcelona's are going to be right back in the 407 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:11,400 Speaker 3: thick of it in La Liga in twenty two, twenty 408 00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:12,120 Speaker 3: twenty three. 409 00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:13,760 Speaker 2: What about you for La Liga? 410 00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:16,920 Speaker 1: I like one of our favorite teams, Athletico Madrid plus 411 00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:18,240 Speaker 1: one five on the road. 412 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:19,600 Speaker 2: It's Ryo Viacano. 413 00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:22,159 Speaker 1: You could potentially say this is a hangover spot for 414 00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:25,560 Speaker 1: Athletico coming off that big one zero win against United 415 00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:28,480 Speaker 1: at Old Trafford on Tuesday, but they are still in 416 00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:30,960 Speaker 1: a heated top four race in La Ligos. I think 417 00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:33,959 Speaker 1: this match will have their full attention. Viacano has been 418 00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:37,480 Speaker 1: a nice story since promotion, but they've been in horrific 419 00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:39,440 Speaker 1: form since the start of the new year in twenty 420 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:42,600 Speaker 1: twenty two. Viacano has picked up three points in their 421 00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:46,879 Speaker 1: last eleven matches and they have a minus twelve actual 422 00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:49,560 Speaker 1: goal differential. The last time these two teams face each 423 00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:52,480 Speaker 1: other Viaca it was one of the more dominant pformances 424 00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:56,280 Speaker 1: of entire La Lega season. Viacano only had three shots 425 00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:59,639 Speaker 1: ander point one six expectacles, Athletico one two, nothing, and 426 00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:04,000 Speaker 1: just absolutely just completely dominated them. And Athletico, as we've 427 00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:06,800 Speaker 1: talked about many times, very still very very good defensively, 428 00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:09,160 Speaker 1: still trending in that right direction, but they've actually been 429 00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:13,159 Speaker 1: improving quite a bit offensively eleven point eight expected goals 430 00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:16,399 Speaker 1: and twenty big scoring chances in their last five matches. 431 00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:19,600 Speaker 1: And Yakano is very average defense, sitting in tenth in 432 00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:22,560 Speaker 1: Laaliga in terms of expected goals, but they have allowed 433 00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:25,159 Speaker 1: ten big scoring chances in their last five matches. So 434 00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:28,800 Speaker 1: I have Athletico projected close to minus one twenty five, 435 00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:31,000 Speaker 1: so at a price of plus one oh five, I 436 00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:33,520 Speaker 1: love Diego Simioni's men to grab all three points on 437 00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:33,880 Speaker 1: the road. 438 00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:36,040 Speaker 3: All right, well we'll flip it right back over to 439 00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:37,639 Speaker 3: you for Syria and league. 440 00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:40,840 Speaker 1: Ah yeah, this line really pissed me off. Honestly, it 441 00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:43,080 Speaker 1: was like two thirty. It was like one, probably twelve 442 00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:45,440 Speaker 1: thirty in the morning. I was going through everything and 443 00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:47,960 Speaker 1: I saw this both teams to score no line, and 444 00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:51,280 Speaker 1: it just really made me angry. So, as we've talked 445 00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:54,760 Speaker 1: about a lot of times, Syria is just ridiculously stupid. 446 00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:58,280 Speaker 1: How overperforming everybody really is. This season, there has been 447 00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:01,399 Speaker 1: seven hundred and ninety four goals off of seven hundred 448 00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:04,600 Speaker 1: and fifty five expected goals, so essentially there's been almost 449 00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:06,399 Speaker 1: forty more goals than there should have been in. 450 00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:07,280 Speaker 2: The entire league. 451 00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:10,879 Speaker 1: And one of those biggest culprits is Verona, who has 452 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:13,720 Speaker 1: scored fifty four goals off of around forty expected goals, 453 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:15,920 Speaker 1: which is just truly insane for a mid table club. 454 00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:18,440 Speaker 1: Even their last five matches, they've scored eleven goals have 455 00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:21,200 Speaker 1: of five point seven expected goals, So it's safe to 456 00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:23,000 Speaker 1: say that negative aggresion is going to hit them at 457 00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:27,520 Speaker 1: some point. They're playing in Poli, who has slightly overperformed 458 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:29,560 Speaker 1: but is one of the more inept offenses in Syria, 459 00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:32,800 Speaker 1: op averaging only one point two expected goals for match. 460 00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:35,159 Speaker 1: The problem with them is they don't create. They do 461 00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:38,240 Speaker 1: create a lot of chances. They're you know, eighth in 462 00:21:38,600 --> 00:21:41,280 Speaker 1: shots per ninety, but they're sixteenth and big scoring chances, 463 00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:42,320 Speaker 1: so their shots aren't. 464 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:43,480 Speaker 2: Of the highest quality. 465 00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:47,040 Speaker 1: On the flip side, Ronins defense is actually quite underrated 466 00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:49,720 Speaker 1: forty six goals allowed off of thirty five expected. They're 467 00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:52,639 Speaker 1: also a very good pressing team and they've created the 468 00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:55,800 Speaker 1: most high turnal versus in Syria a per opta. However, 469 00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:58,840 Speaker 1: they have the six to fewest shots off of high turnovers. 470 00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,080 Speaker 1: They can't really do anything with them, but to just 471 00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:05,840 Speaker 1: show you how crazy the over performance is, especially in Italy. 472 00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:09,000 Speaker 2: But specifically these two teams I went through. 473 00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:12,720 Speaker 1: I would define both teams are scoring as what they 474 00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:15,280 Speaker 1: should do is if both teams are creating at least 475 00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:18,120 Speaker 1: one expected goal. So I went through all of their 476 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:21,040 Speaker 1: matches in Polle has had nineteen matches where both teams 477 00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:24,840 Speaker 1: have scored, Verona's had twenty three, Empoli has had fourteen 478 00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:27,680 Speaker 1: matches where both teams have created at least one expected goal. 479 00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:31,320 Speaker 1: Verona's had twelve, So that means Verona's basically had double 480 00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:33,560 Speaker 1: the amount of both teams to score that they should have. 481 00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:37,000 Speaker 1: So at a price of both teams to score at 482 00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:39,760 Speaker 1: minus one eighty five, you're implying that sixty five percent 483 00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:42,200 Speaker 1: of the time that both these teams are scoring, regression 484 00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:43,800 Speaker 1: is going to come at some point, and so I'm 485 00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:45,359 Speaker 1: going to try to get it here. Both teams to 486 00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:48,600 Speaker 1: score No is at plus one fifty five, which is 487 00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:53,479 Speaker 1: just crazy to me, But I understand that the over 488 00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:56,280 Speaker 1: performance is real, and maybe it's just the reality that 489 00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:58,320 Speaker 1: we're living in right now, but I'm going to bet 490 00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:00,359 Speaker 1: that it's not. So both teams have score No. Plus 491 00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:03,520 Speaker 1: one fifty five and the Polly and Verona right, We'll go. 492 00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:06,840 Speaker 2: Right back to you for a bogie side for you. 493 00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:10,359 Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, I want to read you a quote here, Michael, 494 00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:14,960 Speaker 1: before I give this pick. The measure of intelligence is 495 00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:18,480 Speaker 1: the ability to change. Albert Einstein said that if you're 496 00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:20,720 Speaker 1: a longtime listener of this podcast, or even listening to 497 00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:23,160 Speaker 1: us when we were back on YouTube, you'll know that 498 00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:25,520 Speaker 1: there is a team in France that I've had a 499 00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:27,880 Speaker 1: grudge against it's DoD de Reims. But you know what, 500 00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:30,719 Speaker 1: if I can change, we all can change. Because I'm 501 00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:32,720 Speaker 1: not betting on them plus half a goal at plus 502 00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:36,000 Speaker 1: one oh five against Leone this weekend, so they're still 503 00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:38,440 Speaker 1: over performing a little bit plus one actual goal of 504 00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:41,679 Speaker 1: frenchial at a minus six point six expected gold differential. 505 00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:45,720 Speaker 1: With that being said, this is Leon's fourth match in 506 00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:49,080 Speaker 1: eleven days, and most importantly, it will be away from home, 507 00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:51,920 Speaker 1: where they've really struggled this season minus five point six 508 00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:55,600 Speaker 1: expected goal differential and one point eight nine expected goals 509 00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:58,920 Speaker 1: allowed per match on the road. Reems is one of 510 00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:01,800 Speaker 1: the worst offenses and League One, but they're very solid 511 00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:04,480 Speaker 1: defensively eighth and non penalty expected goals allowed. They allow 512 00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:07,320 Speaker 1: a ton of shots, but they're not of the highest quality. 513 00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:11,760 Speaker 1: They're only conceding arounder point nine expected goals per match 514 00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:14,879 Speaker 1: at home, and they're only exceeding under one big scoring 515 00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:18,600 Speaker 1: chance per ninety minutes. In fact, they've only conceded four 516 00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:22,080 Speaker 1: big scoring chances in their last eleven matches and PSG 517 00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:24,720 Speaker 1: and Monico and Marseille we're in that stretch. So I 518 00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:27,040 Speaker 1: think the lay online is a tad inflated here. I 519 00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:30,000 Speaker 1: have then projected at plus one thirty three. Both Info 520 00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:32,240 Speaker 1: Goal and five thirty eight have lay on at forty 521 00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:34,919 Speaker 1: eight percent, So getting rings plus half a goal at 522 00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:37,359 Speaker 1: plus one oh five I think has some decent value. 523 00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:40,160 Speaker 3: Lovely, all right, let's move on to our favorite underdogs 524 00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:44,040 Speaker 3: for the weekend. I'm going to Frankfurt. They're six to 525 00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:48,080 Speaker 3: one against RB Leipzig and the Bundesliga. Leipzig are red hot. 526 00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:50,639 Speaker 3: They're seven to one and one with a plus nineteen 527 00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:54,240 Speaker 3: goal differential've been the best team in terms of current 528 00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:58,880 Speaker 3: form in the Bundesliga since January first. However, their expected 529 00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:02,080 Speaker 3: goal differential suggests they should come back down to earth 530 00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:04,560 Speaker 3: before the season ends. It sits at plus eight point 531 00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:07,600 Speaker 3: one three. I'll remind you their actual goal differentials plus 532 00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:12,760 Speaker 3: nineteen Frankfurt. Their metrics are basically mid table across the board. However, 533 00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:14,800 Speaker 3: you give me six to one to bet against a 534 00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:18,240 Speaker 3: team that is overperforming by eleven goals according to their 535 00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:20,840 Speaker 3: XG and I'll take it. So six to one on 536 00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:24,360 Speaker 3: Frankfurt to pull the upset against Leipzig in Germany. 537 00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:27,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna go Bologna plus three point forty at 538 00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:31,399 Speaker 1: home against Adelanta Adelantsa is playing on Thursday against Leverkusen. 539 00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:34,680 Speaker 1: This is a pretty decent matchup for Bologna. They haven't 540 00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:37,000 Speaker 1: been vackreat this season. They're not a great offense, they're 541 00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:39,840 Speaker 1: averaging under one non penalty expected goal per match, but 542 00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:42,520 Speaker 1: they're pretty solid defense. Only one point one expected goal 543 00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:45,760 Speaker 1: is allowed per match and Adelanta has been overperforming quite 544 00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:48,720 Speaker 1: a bit as of late, around thirteen goals in their 545 00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:51,119 Speaker 1: last seven matches, but they've only created around. 546 00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:52,879 Speaker 2: Seven expected goals. 547 00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:55,399 Speaker 1: So I think it's a decent spot for a pretty 548 00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:58,359 Speaker 1: talented Bologna team that just hasn't really put the pieces 549 00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:01,720 Speaker 1: together so far this season. So price of plus three 550 00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:04,840 Speaker 1: forty at home against a team that's coming off short rest, 551 00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:07,200 Speaker 1: I like the price on blow yet plus three forty. 552 00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:09,760 Speaker 3: All right, we'll wrap up the show with our favorite 553 00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:11,720 Speaker 3: bets in the Premier League for this week. Like I said, 554 00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:14,919 Speaker 3: it's a pretty short slate, so slim pickens, but I 555 00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:17,919 Speaker 3: still love Brentford their plus two to fifty five against 556 00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:20,960 Speaker 3: Leicester City this weekend. Leicester has been one of the 557 00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:23,920 Speaker 3: worst defensive sides all year in the Premier League and 558 00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:27,280 Speaker 3: that hasn't changed. The rank seventeenth in non penalty expectacles 559 00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:30,440 Speaker 3: allowed they're fourteenth and big scoring chances allowed in eighteenth 560 00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:33,280 Speaker 3: in box entries allowed. Lester also has nothing to play 561 00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:37,359 Speaker 3: for and the matchup really does benefit Brentford in terms 562 00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:41,680 Speaker 3: of a sputtering offense for Leicester, an improving defense for Brentford, 563 00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:46,000 Speaker 3: And as we touched on earlier, Leicester City is terrible 564 00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:49,320 Speaker 3: at defending set pieces and that's one way that Brentford 565 00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:53,360 Speaker 3: loves to score, especially off cornerkicks. And finally, we're talking 566 00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:55,560 Speaker 3: about a bed schedule spot for Leicester, who are on 567 00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:59,240 Speaker 3: short rest after European game over the midweek. So gimme 568 00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:01,720 Speaker 3: Brentford their plus two fifty five on the road in 569 00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:03,960 Speaker 3: a huge match for them and one that means absolutely 570 00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,280 Speaker 3: nothing to Leicester's city. What about you? 571 00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:10,000 Speaker 1: I love Wolves plus one twenty on Friday afternoon against Leeds. 572 00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:13,360 Speaker 1: Leeds obviously has improved defensive land or Jesse Marsh three 573 00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:15,920 Speaker 1: point one expected goals allowed in their last three matches, 574 00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:19,480 Speaker 1: but they're playing one of the heaviest counter attacking profiles 575 00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:21,720 Speaker 1: in the entire Premier League in Wolves, which is a 576 00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:24,119 Speaker 1: terrible matchup for Leeds, who loves to get out and 577 00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:26,080 Speaker 1: press and go forward that's going to create a lot 578 00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:28,840 Speaker 1: of space in the middle for Wolves attackers going forward. 579 00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:31,520 Speaker 1: I understand that Wolves has overperformed this season but in 580 00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:35,000 Speaker 1: terms of their expected goals both offensively and defensively. But 581 00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:37,400 Speaker 1: on the defensive end of the pitch, what they do 582 00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:39,879 Speaker 1: do a great job of is preventing big scoring chances. 583 00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:41,920 Speaker 1: They've only allowed twenty three on the season, which is 584 00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:44,159 Speaker 1: the fourth best mark in the Premier League. And if 585 00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,040 Speaker 1: you're looking at the market, I think the price is 586 00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:48,119 Speaker 1: just a little too low for a really good Wolves 587 00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:51,280 Speaker 1: team that's still sitting in the top eight. So I 588 00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:53,480 Speaker 1: have Wolves projected at minus one oh one. So I 589 00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:57,040 Speaker 1: think you're getting a decent price on Wolverhampton Wonderers at 590 00:27:57,240 --> 00:27:58,560 Speaker 1: plus one twenty and that. 591 00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:01,359 Speaker 3: Should do it for another episode of Wonder Goal for 592 00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:03,240 Speaker 3: BJ Cunningham on Michael Lebuff. 593 00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:04,480 Speaker 2: We won't see you on Monday, but. 594 00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:06,520 Speaker 3: We'll see you sometime during the week to talk about 595 00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:10,720 Speaker 3: some World Cup qualifiers that have some really really high stakes. 596 00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:16,800 Speaker 3: So until then, best of luck with your soccer bets.