1 00:00:03,920 --> 00:00:08,760 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day two forty 2 00:00:08,840 --> 00:00:14,000 Speaker 1: seven since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's main story. 3 00:00:14,680 --> 00:00:16,560 Speaker 1: It looks like we are on the edge of having 4 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:22,800 Speaker 1: a truly effective coronavirus vaccine or a few. We spoke 5 00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:26,600 Speaker 1: with Dr Anthony Fauci about what that actually means for 6 00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:32,000 Speaker 1: putting the pandemic behind us. But first, here's what happened 7 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:48,120 Speaker 1: in virus news today. Moderna said its COVID nineteen vaccine 8 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:52,559 Speaker 1: was point five percent effective according to early results from 9 00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:56,960 Speaker 1: a large, late stage clinical trial. It's another sign that 10 00:00:57,040 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 1: a fast paced hunt by scientists and pharmaceutical companies is 11 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:04,680 Speaker 1: paying off. The highly positive readout comes just a week 12 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:08,360 Speaker 1: after a similar shot developed by Fiser and bioan Tech 13 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:12,840 Speaker 1: was found to be more than effective in an interim analysis. 14 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:17,480 Speaker 1: Both shots rely on a technology called messenger RNA that 15 00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:23,040 Speaker 1: has never before been used to build an approved vaccine. Soon, 16 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:26,200 Speaker 1: millions of people around the world could be spared from 17 00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:31,280 Speaker 1: illness by the breakthroughs. While the vaccine news is encouraging, 18 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 1: the World Health Organization remains guarded about the potential for 19 00:01:35,720 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 1: new tools to start arriving in the coming months. The 20 00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:43,000 Speaker 1: w h O is extremely concerned by the surgeon cases 21 00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:47,440 Speaker 1: seen in Europe and the America's Director General, Tadris Adnam 22 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:52,240 Speaker 1: Gabriezu said at a media briefing, w h O officials 23 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 1: reiterated the importance of vaccinating frontline workers around the world. Finally, 24 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:03,160 Speaker 1: as the pandemic rages throughout the world, governments everywhere are 25 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:07,040 Speaker 1: exploring new restrictions on how much contact people can have. 26 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:11,720 Speaker 1: In the US, New Jersey will further restrict to gatherings. 27 00:02:11,720 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 1: In Michigan, Governor Gretchen Whitmer is imposing a three week 28 00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 1: partial lockdown. In Europe, German Chancellor Angela Merkel wants more 29 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:28,120 Speaker 1: curbs on public and private gatherings. Sweden is introducing unprecedented restrictions, 30 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:31,720 Speaker 1: and Francis Health Minister said the country is regaining control 31 00:02:31,760 --> 00:02:39,360 Speaker 1: of the epidemic thanks to the latest national lockdown. And 32 00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:43,799 Speaker 1: now for today's main story. It's taken less than a 33 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:46,840 Speaker 1: year for scientists to develop what appears to be an 34 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:51,960 Speaker 1: effective vaccine against the coronavirus. Drugmaker Fiser and its German 35 00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:56,120 Speaker 1: partner biow In Tech delivered dazzling preliminary results in a 36 00:02:56,240 --> 00:03:01,240 Speaker 1: large patient trial this month, and just today Maderna announced 37 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:06,320 Speaker 1: that its vaccine also looks extremely effective. But creating a 38 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:10,080 Speaker 1: vaccine is only part of the challenge. Bloomberg Senior editor 39 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:14,400 Speaker 1: Jason Gale spoke with top Us infectious disease doctor Anthony 40 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:20,680 Speaker 1: Faucci about another impediment to a successful vaccination strategy, people 41 00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:24,400 Speaker 1: not wanting to take it. Their interview took place this 42 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:30,079 Speaker 1: weekend before Maderna's blockbuster early results were released. Even so, 43 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:34,280 Speaker 1: Faucci was aware the Maderna report would come soon and 44 00:03:34,320 --> 00:03:38,839 Speaker 1: said he expected that multiple encouraging vaccine results would soon 45 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:43,840 Speaker 1: be reported. Here's Jason's conversation with Dr Faucci. He started 46 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:53,839 Speaker 1: off by asking whether vaccines alone can rescue us. If 47 00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:57,040 Speaker 1: you have a highly effective vaccine and only the people 48 00:03:57,080 --> 00:04:00,200 Speaker 1: take it, you're not going to have the impact that 49 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:04,240 Speaker 1: you need to essentially bring a pandemic down to a 50 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:07,440 Speaker 1: such a low level that it's no longer threatening society, 51 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:12,000 Speaker 1: and that's the goal of a vaccine. Acceptance of a 52 00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:16,760 Speaker 1: vaccine isn't a low ball, because only of US adult 53 00:04:16,800 --> 00:04:19,719 Speaker 1: seven in September they would definitely or probably take a 54 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 1: COVID vaccine if one were available. That's according to a 55 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:27,080 Speaker 1: national survey by the Pew Research Center. The Washington Mace 56 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:30,160 Speaker 1: Group conducted a survey four months earlier in May and 57 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:35,159 Speaker 1: found seventy respondents would probably accept a COVID vaccine. Both 58 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:38,440 Speaker 1: the vaccines developed by Fiser and bio and Tech and 59 00:04:38,520 --> 00:04:41,279 Speaker 1: the one from Maderna are given in a two shot regiment. 60 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:44,919 Speaker 1: I asked Dr Faucci what the duration of protection is 61 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:48,240 Speaker 1: likely to be. You know, we don't know the answer 62 00:04:48,279 --> 00:04:51,680 Speaker 1: to that. The coronavirus is as a class of viruses 63 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:58,320 Speaker 1: generally don't induce an immune response that has decades of durability. 64 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:03,120 Speaker 1: And we know that from the experience naturally with the 65 00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:07,559 Speaker 1: four common coronaviruses that cause the common cold, namely, people 66 00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:10,839 Speaker 1: repetitively get infected year after year with the same virus. 67 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:16,040 Speaker 1: I would hope that the durability of a vaccine with 68 00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:20,200 Speaker 1: a prime in a boost is such that we get 69 00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:24,440 Speaker 1: at least a year or two of of durability. If 70 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 1: we get you know, one to two years of durability, 71 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:29,800 Speaker 1: to me, that's fine, because we just go back and 72 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:34,120 Speaker 1: and boost people and and get their immunity up. Right now, 73 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:36,560 Speaker 1: I like to take, as they say, one step at 74 00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:40,320 Speaker 1: a time. The first step is get an effective vaccine, 75 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:44,200 Speaker 1: then we could work around the durability on the next round. 76 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 1: More than twenty COVID vaccines have entered the final phase 77 00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:51,880 Speaker 1: of patient studies that new pharmaceutical products a usually required 78 00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:56,080 Speaker 1: to undergo for regulatory approval. Even though the late stage 79 00:05:56,160 --> 00:05:59,240 Speaker 1: trials may take only a few months, people getting a 80 00:05:59,240 --> 00:06:01,880 Speaker 1: new vaccine will be followed for up to two years 81 00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:07,000 Speaker 1: as part of safety monitoring and surveillance. Dr Fauci says, well, 82 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:10,240 Speaker 1: I think people should not get under the false impression 83 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:14,960 Speaker 1: that safety is going to be abandoned after two months. 84 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:17,159 Speaker 1: These individuals are going to be followed for up to 85 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:20,479 Speaker 1: two years, so they'll be looking for safety as you 86 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 1: go out into the duration of the time following immunization. 87 00:06:26,000 --> 00:06:29,960 Speaker 1: I mean, obviously, obviously always want to be very careful 88 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:32,840 Speaker 1: when it comes to safety when you're dealing with vaccines 89 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:34,960 Speaker 1: that you're gonna be giving two hundreds of millions, if 90 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:38,200 Speaker 1: not billions of people, and that is something that is 91 00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:42,040 Speaker 1: on everybody's front burner. Safety is paramount. The World Health 92 00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:46,479 Speaker 1: Organization counts at least five different vaccine types or approaches 93 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:49,880 Speaker 1: that are being taken to create uganizations to protect against 94 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:53,039 Speaker 1: COVID nineteen. I asked to Vaucci if the safety and 95 00:06:53,040 --> 00:06:56,600 Speaker 1: efficacy of these experimental vaccines will be similar across the 96 00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 1: various platforms, or whether some will be better than others. 97 00:07:01,960 --> 00:07:05,200 Speaker 1: I I cannot imagine you're gonna have exactly the same 98 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:09,080 Speaker 1: efficacy when you're dealing with six separate vaccines. If that happens, 99 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:12,480 Speaker 1: we should go to Las Vegas and and bet I 100 00:07:12,520 --> 00:07:15,200 Speaker 1: don't think that's gonna happen. But what I think we 101 00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:18,960 Speaker 1: might see is that certain vaccines might be better for 102 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:22,840 Speaker 1: different demographic groups. So you might find that one vaccine 103 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:26,040 Speaker 1: is better for children, another one's better for the elderly, 104 00:07:26,440 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 1: another one might be better, you know, for people with 105 00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:38,160 Speaker 1: the underlying conditions. You don't really know. I alstot to 106 00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:40,520 Speaker 1: face you where the programs to develop drugs for COVID 107 00:07:40,800 --> 00:07:44,560 Speaker 1: would lose momentum once vaccines are available. Well, people think 108 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:49,040 Speaker 1: new treatments just won't be required. I don't think that 109 00:07:49,040 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 1: that's the case unless you wipe out something and eradicated, 110 00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:58,560 Speaker 1: which you're very unlikely to eradicate a virus that has 111 00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:05,800 Speaker 1: such a high degree of replication competency and a transmissibility efficiency. 112 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:08,120 Speaker 1: So I think that there will be a place for 113 00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:13,440 Speaker 1: uh state of the art therapeutics indefinitely. To be honest 114 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:17,360 Speaker 1: with you, vaccines will come, they will be effective, but 115 00:08:17,440 --> 00:08:20,080 Speaker 1: I think we should not think about abandoning the field 116 00:08:20,080 --> 00:08:24,240 Speaker 1: of therapeutics. Dr Facci says that ideally we should have 117 00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:28,040 Speaker 1: medicines like monoclonal antibodies that can be administered early in 118 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:31,040 Speaker 1: an infection to prevent people from getting sick enough that 119 00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:34,880 Speaker 1: they need hospitalization. I would really like to see us 120 00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:43,000 Speaker 1: have a multi day pack of of potent anti coronavirus 121 00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:47,640 Speaker 1: agents that when someone starts to develop symptoms, you don't 122 00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:49,120 Speaker 1: want to wait to see if they wind up in 123 00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:52,280 Speaker 1: the hospital, you just treat them right away. That's what 124 00:08:52,400 --> 00:08:55,440 Speaker 1: I see as the future of this. Chances that we 125 00:08:55,600 --> 00:08:59,160 Speaker 1: might need anti viral treatments for more novel coronavirus is 126 00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:03,440 Speaker 1: I stuff fauchy. Whether it's likely others will emerge in 127 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:07,320 Speaker 1: the next ten years, I would not be surprised. You know, 128 00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:10,600 Speaker 1: we went for a very long period of time dealing 129 00:09:10,640 --> 00:09:14,840 Speaker 1: with the four common call coronavirus IS, knowing full well 130 00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:19,840 Speaker 1: that bats were a major reservoir of coronavirus IS with 131 00:09:19,920 --> 00:09:23,840 Speaker 1: sequences that was similar to the sequences that were affecting 132 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:30,160 Speaker 1: humans with just you know, some minor molecular differences. Um, 133 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:34,320 Speaker 1: if we continue to have the human animal interface that 134 00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:40,560 Speaker 1: we've seen now so consistently with coronavirus, I would not 135 00:09:40,640 --> 00:09:46,760 Speaker 1: be surprised if we saw another coronavirus jump species into humans. 136 00:09:46,800 --> 00:09:49,080 Speaker 1: Whether or not it would turn into a pandemic, I 137 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:52,720 Speaker 1: don't know. I hope not, but I wouldn't be surprised 138 00:09:52,800 --> 00:09:55,760 Speaker 1: if we see others jump species and go from a 139 00:09:55,800 --> 00:10:00,000 Speaker 1: bat maybe to an intermediate host to the human vaccine. 140 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:02,679 Speaker 1: The new treatments for COVID nineteen are being developed at 141 00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:06,440 Speaker 1: unprecedented speed. The fact that we'll be able to immunize 142 00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:09,480 Speaker 1: people against a novel pathogen within a year of its 143 00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:13,760 Speaker 1: emergence is an amazing accomplishment. But if we could identify 144 00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:18,280 Speaker 1: pandemic threats and snuff them out before these viruses start spreading, 145 00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:29,240 Speaker 1: that would be an even greater fate. That was Jason Gail, 146 00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:31,960 Speaker 1: and that's it for our show today. For coverage of 147 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:34,760 Speaker 1: the outbreak from one and twenty bureaus around the world, 148 00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:39,440 Speaker 1: visit Bloomberg dot com slash coronavirus, and if you like 149 00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:42,240 Speaker 1: the show, please leave us a review. And a rating 150 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:45,520 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to 151 00:10:45,520 --> 00:10:50,000 Speaker 1: help more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily 152 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:55,079 Speaker 1: edition is produced by Topher Foreheads, Jordan's Gas Pure, Magnus Hendrickson, 153 00:10:55,280 --> 00:10:59,200 Speaker 1: and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by 154 00:10:59,280 --> 00:11:04,280 Speaker 1: Jason Gail. Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our editors are 155 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:08,920 Speaker 1: Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head 156 00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 1: of podcasts. Thanks for listening.