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Speaker 1: Well guy, speaking of hangovers, the warm white wine has

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Speaker 1: been flowing here in Liverpool. It's day two of Labor

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Speaker 1: Party conference. It's business day. Labour says it's the biggest

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Speaker 1: business day they've ever had. Let's get the view of

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Speaker 1: what business thinks of labor now that they're in power

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Speaker 1: and pleased to say that. We're joined now by Bruce

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Speaker 1: Carnegie Brown, who is chairman of Lloyd's of London. Good

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Speaker 1: to have you with me, Bruce. We've had lots of

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Speaker 1: wealth creators telling us that they're planning to leave the

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Speaker 1: UK because of potential tax hikes in the October thirty budget.

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Speaker 1: Do you think the city's going cold on? Chancellor Rachel Reeves.

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Speaker 2: I think the government has a very fine balancing act

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Speaker 2: to execute over the next few weeks, which is to

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Speaker 2: balance this issue of economic growth, which is at the

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Speaker 2: center of their economic policy, with the need to restore

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Speaker 2: the balance sheet which has been badly damaged by the

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Speaker 2: interventions around the pandemic and around the energy price crisis,

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Speaker 2: and so getting that messaging right will be really important

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Speaker 2: over the next few days.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, of course it's the messaging, but it's also the timing.

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Speaker 1: If they focus on repairing the finances for two long

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Speaker 1: those wealth creators an investment might not be there when

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Speaker 1: they need it.

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Speaker 2: Right, So you're exactly right, and it's getting that balance

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Speaker 2: right giving people hope that we've got a plan for

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Speaker 2: growth in this country. But we're also serious about mending

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Speaker 2: the fiscal balance sheet. And if we don't ment the

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Speaker 2: balance sheet, there won't be any growth either because people

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Speaker 2: will be nervous about the impacts of that.

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Speaker 1: So if, for example, the government does equalize the rate

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Speaker 1: of capital gains tax with income tax, what scale of

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Speaker 1: exodus of investments do you expect from the UK.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's quite hard to predict that, I think, but

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Speaker 2: I think it was really equalized, that would have quite

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Speaker 2: a severely negative impact on international investment coming into the UK.

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Speaker 1: Would it be easier than tax heights if they just

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Speaker 1: change the fiscal rules to encourage more borrowing to invest

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Speaker 1: in public.

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Speaker 2: Infrastructure, Well, I think again, you've got to be careful

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Speaker 2: to do that because if the market isn't convinced that

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Speaker 2: you're being appropriately balanced and disciplined with the balance sheet,

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Speaker 2: then you're going to get into trouble.

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Speaker 1: Well, today we're expecting mature We've to lay out a

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Speaker 1: positive vision for the UK. Do you think she's been

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Speaker 1: too gloomy about the economy over the summer.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's unsurprising that there would be some kind of

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Speaker 2: a reset when the new government comes in, and I

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Speaker 2: think we've all forgotten just how big the physical interventions

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Speaker 2: were around the pandemic and around the energy price crisis,

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Speaker 2: So it's unsurprising that we've got a big balance sheet

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Speaker 2: whole that needs fixing. But getting that message right, Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Finances, but the economic data haven't been as bad as

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Speaker 1: the Chancellor.

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Speaker 2: Has been saying. No, it's actually been quite good. I

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Speaker 2: think that sort of muddled through that we tend to

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Speaker 2: manage so well in this country has worked reasonably positively.

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Speaker 2: So I think the ingredients are there for us to

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Speaker 2: grow out of faster pace. But I think we could

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Speaker 2: equally choke that growth off if we are overly focused

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Speaker 2: on restoring the balance sheet.

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Speaker 1: So what do you want to hear from the Chancellor

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Speaker 1: in her speech today? Well, I'd like.

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Speaker 2: Her to be setting out consistent, predictable plans. So the

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Speaker 2: great joy of this new government is the opportunity to

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Speaker 2: have stability and predictability. We haven't had that for a

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Speaker 2: long period of time, and so to lay out plans

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Speaker 2: that are clear and consistent against which people can invest

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Speaker 2: with confidence, I think we'll make.

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Speaker 1: All the difference. So it is all this Westminster tittle

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Speaker 1: tattle about in fighting at number ten and free these

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Speaker 1: actually at odds with that stability you say investors want, Well, I.

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Speaker 2: Think as long as they get the fundamentals right, some

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Speaker 2: of the tittle tattle, as you call it will disappear.

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Speaker 2: So I'm much more interested in what the content is

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Speaker 2: really for the economy and for investing in the economy.

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Speaker 1: I mean, of course it's not just tittle tattle. It

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Speaker 1: cuts through to the voting. We were speaking to IPSOS earlier.

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Speaker 1: I also know that you're on a panel later you're

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Speaker 1: talking about Labour's foreign policy agenda. How prepared is the

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Speaker 1: UK under labor to manage global risks?

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Speaker 2: Well, it's always a learning experience, I think when you

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Speaker 2: come into government to understand the complexity of the international

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Speaker 2: geopolitical world. And it's very easy in opposition to make

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Speaker 2: relatively straightforward statements about what's good and what's bad. But

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Speaker 2: the world doesn't fit into one or other of those categories, Lloyd.

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Speaker 2: It's what we do, of course, is underwrite a lot

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Speaker 2: of geopolitical risk around the world, and it's our job

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Speaker 2: to take those geopolitical risks off the balance sheet of

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Speaker 2: our commercial customers and put them onto our own. And

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Speaker 2: I'm mean a great example of that is the Black

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Speaker 2: Sea Grain Corridor coming out of Ukraine and taking grain

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Speaker 2: to emerging countries, principally in Africa, and we underwrite the

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Speaker 2: ships and their cargoes, and those ships and cargoes wouldn't

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Speaker 2: move without private sector capacity to underwrite the risks. And

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Speaker 2: so in the last twenty months, thirty million tons of

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Speaker 2: grain have passed out of Ukraine through the Black Sea

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Speaker 2: and over a thousand ships have been used to transport

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Speaker 2: that grain.

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Speaker 1: I mean, as you say, you've got this really close

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Speaker 1: view of risk. Is labor being realistic on that risk?

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Speaker 1: Is there approach more realistic than the Conservatives?

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Speaker 2: Well, I think the new government has been very clear

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Speaker 2: that it wants to have a partnership with the private

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Speaker 2: sector and I welcome That's one of the reasons to

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Speaker 2: be here today. And the private sector will be helpful

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Speaker 2: in providing exse expertise and advice to government on what

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Speaker 2: risks can be transferred, what can be mitigated what risks

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Speaker 2: the government's has to retain. And these will all be

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Speaker 2: complex issues and there will be difficult choices to make,

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Speaker 2: but that's that's what being in government's all about.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Bruce Connie Brown, Chairman and Lloyd's of London, Good

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Speaker 1: to have you with me.