1 00:00:04,840 --> 00:00:06,480 Speaker 1: On this episode of its world. 2 00:00:06,840 --> 00:00:11,080 Speaker 2: In his new book Choke Points American power in the 3 00:00:11,080 --> 00:00:15,360 Speaker 2: Age of Economic Warfare, Edward Fishman takes us deep into 4 00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:18,480 Speaker 2: the back rooms of power to reveal the untold history 5 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:21,200 Speaker 2: of the last two decades of US foreign policy, in 6 00:00:21,239 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 2: which America renounced the gospel of globalization and waged a 7 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:30,560 Speaker 2: new kind of economic war. As Vladimir Putin, Jijiping and 8 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:34,839 Speaker 2: Iatola Kameni wrecked havoc on the world stage, mavericks within 9 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:37,040 Speaker 2: the US government built a fierce of new arsenal of 10 00:00:37,080 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 2: economic weapons, exploiting America's dominance in global finance and technology. 11 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:44,800 Speaker 1: Successive US presidents have relied on. 12 00:00:44,800 --> 00:00:49,120 Speaker 2: These unconventional weapons to address the most pressing national security threats. 13 00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:52,159 Speaker 2: For good and for ill, economic warfare has become the 14 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:56,760 Speaker 2: primary way the United States confronts international crises and counter's rivals. 15 00:00:57,160 --> 00:01:01,920 Speaker 2: Sometimes it has achieved spectacular success, other times bidder failure. 16 00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:04,280 Speaker 1: The result we live with today is. 17 00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:06,840 Speaker 2: A new world order and economic arms race am on 18 00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:10,760 Speaker 2: great powers and a fracturing global economy. I can't imagine 19 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:14,039 Speaker 2: a more appropriate time to have this discussion. So here 20 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 2: to discuss this new book, and I'm really pleased to 21 00:01:16,200 --> 00:01:19,520 Speaker 2: Welcome my guest, Edward Fishman. He is a leading authority 22 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:22,760 Speaker 2: on economic state craft and sanctions. He teaches a Columbia 23 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:26,920 Speaker 2: University School of International and Public Affairs. Previously served at 24 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:29,279 Speaker 2: the US State Department as a member of the Secretary 25 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 2: of State's Policy Planning Staff, at the Pentagon as an 26 00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:35,040 Speaker 2: advisor to the Chairman that joined Chiefs of Staff, and 27 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:38,319 Speaker 2: at the US Treasury Department as a special assistant to 28 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 2: Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. Edward, Welcome and thank 29 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:56,040 Speaker 2: you for joining me on News World. 30 00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 3: Mister speaker, thank you so much for having me on today. 31 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:02,600 Speaker 2: I'm very curious about your own background. How did you 32 00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:05,720 Speaker 2: end up getting into this kind of economic project. 33 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:09,079 Speaker 3: Yeah, so it really dates back to my time as 34 00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:11,440 Speaker 3: a college student at Yale in the years after nine 35 00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:15,000 Speaker 3: to eleven. I was studying history and learning about how 36 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:18,400 Speaker 3: we were living in a unipolar moment. America was the 37 00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 3: world's sole superpower. But then when I was just following 38 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 3: the news and seeing America struggle to get what we 39 00:02:24,639 --> 00:02:28,080 Speaker 3: wanted in places like Iraq and Afghanistan in those two wars, 40 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:29,799 Speaker 3: it just didn't add up to me, and it made 41 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:33,040 Speaker 3: me think that perhaps we weren't using our power as 42 00:02:33,040 --> 00:02:37,160 Speaker 3: effectively as we could to advance American interests abroad. And 43 00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:40,679 Speaker 3: it was right at that time that Iran's nuclear weapons program, 44 00:02:40,840 --> 00:02:43,640 Speaker 3: right in the sort of mid two thousands, became the 45 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:47,120 Speaker 3: top national security priority for the United States, because folks 46 00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 3: may remember that when Mahmud Akmanitterjad was elected president in 47 00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:54,400 Speaker 3: two thousand and five of Iran, he would routinely threaten 48 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:56,960 Speaker 3: to wipe Israel off the face of the earth, and 49 00:02:57,000 --> 00:02:59,960 Speaker 3: he restarted nuclear enrichment programs, and there was a real 50 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:04,359 Speaker 3: threat that Iran could transfer nuclear material to a terrorist 51 00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:07,280 Speaker 3: proxy like Camas or Hesbala or even al Qaeda, and 52 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:09,799 Speaker 3: that we could have a nuclear nine to eleven basically 53 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:12,160 Speaker 3: a terrorist attack on US oil that was an order 54 00:03:12,200 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 3: of magnitude worse than the nine to eleven attacks. But 55 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:17,920 Speaker 3: of course at the time there was no appetite politically 56 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:19,919 Speaker 3: to fight another war in the Middle East. We already 57 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:22,480 Speaker 3: fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. And so it was right 58 00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:25,520 Speaker 3: around that time that a guy at the Treasury Department 59 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:30,040 Speaker 3: named Stuart Levy started pioneering new forms of financial sanctions 60 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:32,960 Speaker 3: to try to actually put pressure on Iran and then 61 00:03:33,040 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 3: maybe negotiate away their nuclear program. As I was watching 62 00:03:35,960 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 3: this as a student, I was just fascinated and I 63 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 3: actually wrote to Stuart asking if he could bring me 64 00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:44,040 Speaker 3: on as an intern, and it turned out that he 65 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:45,960 Speaker 3: was actually in the process of leaving. This was in 66 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:49,080 Speaker 3: twenty eleven, but his successor was kind enough to offer 67 00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:51,480 Speaker 3: me a job as a special assistant, and so within 68 00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:54,760 Speaker 3: a few days of graduating college, I moved down to Washington, 69 00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 3: DC and joined the Treasury Department as the Special Assistant 70 00:03:57,360 --> 00:03:59,720 Speaker 3: to the Undersecretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial 71 00:03:59,720 --> 00:04:02,320 Speaker 3: intel Leigence, and then had the good fortune of getting 72 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:04,240 Speaker 3: to work on things like the Iran sanctions that led 73 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:06,720 Speaker 3: to the first Nuclear Deal, and then the Russia sanctions 74 00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:09,920 Speaker 3: in twenty fourteen after Putin invaded Ukraine for the first time. 75 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 2: From your perspective, has sanctions worked that they achieve the 76 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:14,880 Speaker 2: goals we wanted? 77 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:18,600 Speaker 3: People often ask me, you know, do sanctions work right? 78 00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:20,919 Speaker 3: The thing that I find a little curious is and 79 00:04:21,200 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 3: I also had the good fortune of doing a stint 80 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:25,600 Speaker 3: at the Pentagon working for the Chairman of the Joint 81 00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:28,440 Speaker 3: Chiefs of Staff, General Marty Dempsey. And one thing I 82 00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:33,120 Speaker 3: never heard at the Pentagon asked was does a bomb work. Well, yeah, 83 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:35,640 Speaker 3: bombs work quite well to blow things up, but they 84 00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 3: don't always get you what you want politically. And I 85 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:42,359 Speaker 3: think sanctions are very similar, particularly American sanctions, Because the 86 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:45,640 Speaker 3: US controls the key choke points in the global economy, 87 00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:49,440 Speaker 3: like the US dollar, advanced semiconductor technology, the United States 88 00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:52,640 Speaker 3: has the ability to impose really devastating economic harm on 89 00:04:52,720 --> 00:04:55,320 Speaker 3: foreign countries. Even just with the stroke of the pen. 90 00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:58,719 Speaker 3: President Trump any other president can really exact quite a 91 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:01,479 Speaker 3: bit of pressure on foreign government. The question is can 92 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:04,040 Speaker 3: we translate that pressure into the political outcomes we seek. 93 00:05:04,360 --> 00:05:07,480 Speaker 3: I think with respect to Iran, we were quite successful 94 00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:10,240 Speaker 3: in changing the calculus of the Iranian regime and the 95 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:12,240 Speaker 3: idea that they should actually come to the table and 96 00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:15,480 Speaker 3: negotiate on the nuclear program. I think with Russia we've struggled, 97 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:18,120 Speaker 3: frankly to change Putin's calculus. And I think the concern 98 00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:20,279 Speaker 3: there isn't so much that we haven't been able to 99 00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:24,880 Speaker 3: harm Russia's economy. It's that Putin has routinely doubted Western 100 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:28,720 Speaker 3: resolve and doubted our willingness to actually wage economic warfare 101 00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:32,000 Speaker 3: against Russia, with the determination it would take over years. 102 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:35,360 Speaker 2: In a sense, it's also a function of how tough 103 00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 2: your adversary is in the level of pain they want 104 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:38,680 Speaker 2: to put up with. 105 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:40,920 Speaker 3: Yes, I think that's exactly right. 106 00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:45,799 Speaker 2: As you know, the president has emergency authority to raise 107 00:05:45,839 --> 00:05:49,240 Speaker 2: in lower tariffs that has been delegated to him by Congress. 108 00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:52,440 Speaker 2: And we're talking the week that he had what he 109 00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:54,960 Speaker 2: called Liberation Day, which I'm not sure is what any 110 00:05:54,960 --> 00:05:57,040 Speaker 2: other country of the planet we'll call it. Well, what 111 00:05:57,160 --> 00:06:00,839 Speaker 2: is your take on his whole approach to trying to 112 00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:03,280 Speaker 2: develop individualized reciprocal tariffs. 113 00:06:04,200 --> 00:06:07,000 Speaker 3: You started off by talking about the emergency authority that 114 00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:09,640 Speaker 3: the president has. This is a nineteen seventy seven law 115 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:14,119 Speaker 3: called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, and that law 116 00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:17,640 Speaker 3: has been used to give the president authority to impose 117 00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:21,599 Speaker 3: financial sanctions on Iran and Russia and North Korea and 118 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:24,880 Speaker 3: other rogue regimes. What it hasn't been used for up 119 00:06:24,960 --> 00:06:27,440 Speaker 3: until now, actually for the first time during the second 120 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:31,280 Speaker 3: Trump administration, is tariffs. So the first time that that 121 00:06:31,400 --> 00:06:34,159 Speaker 3: law has ever been used for tariffs was when Trump 122 00:06:34,440 --> 00:06:37,640 Speaker 3: on February first imposed the twenty five percent tariff on 123 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:41,280 Speaker 3: Canada and Mexico on the fentanyl and migration crisis, and 124 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:44,719 Speaker 3: the initial ten percent tariff on China. The new tariffs 125 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:47,760 Speaker 3: that Trump put in place on this so called Liberation 126 00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:51,040 Speaker 3: Day were also justified by this law, the nineteen seventy 127 00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 3: seven International Emergency Economic Powers Act. However, I think there's 128 00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:57,440 Speaker 3: some doubt within the legal community about whether this ultimately 129 00:06:57,480 --> 00:07:00,560 Speaker 3: will hold up in court, because that law really is 130 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:03,760 Speaker 3: supposed to be used for a national security crises. What 131 00:07:03,800 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 3: Trump has said is that the trade deficit overall gives 132 00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:11,160 Speaker 3: him blanket authority to impose this massive tariff. The issue is, 133 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:14,880 Speaker 3: despite what Trump says, a tariff is a tax right. 134 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:19,000 Speaker 3: So American importers are going to be paying these tariffs, 135 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 3: and so there's a real question. I think that lawyers 136 00:07:22,320 --> 00:07:24,760 Speaker 3: and courts will need to work out whether the President 137 00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:28,080 Speaker 3: does have the authority to just unilaterally impose taxes this way, 138 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:31,239 Speaker 3: because if these tariffs do remain in place, mister speaker, 139 00:07:31,440 --> 00:07:34,080 Speaker 3: the economic analysis that I've seen suggests that it could 140 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:37,520 Speaker 3: be the largest single active tax increases in American history, 141 00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:39,920 Speaker 3: and one sort of fell swoop. And so if the 142 00:07:39,960 --> 00:07:41,920 Speaker 3: president has that authority, I think it's a bit of 143 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:45,280 Speaker 3: an abandonment, frankly, of the Congress's authority to raise taxes 144 00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:47,400 Speaker 3: in association with the President, it. 145 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:52,760 Speaker 2: Would require the Congress surpass some limitation with a veto 146 00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:53,920 Speaker 2: overriding majority. 147 00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:57,120 Speaker 3: Well, I think there's a question. I mean, it's possible 148 00:07:57,120 --> 00:08:00,960 Speaker 3: that the tariffs themselves are ultimately enjoined in because there's 149 00:08:00,960 --> 00:08:04,480 Speaker 3: a question whether the present authorities under the International Emergency 150 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:08,120 Speaker 3: Economic Powers Act allow him to impose a unilateral universal 151 00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:10,280 Speaker 3: tariff the way that he has right because in addition 152 00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:12,800 Speaker 3: to the reciprocal tariff, he's also imposed a ten percent 153 00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:16,240 Speaker 3: universal tariff on every other country in the world. Let's 154 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:19,080 Speaker 3: say that it does hold up, because you also asked me, 155 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 3: do I think it's a good idea. I think that 156 00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:26,000 Speaker 3: the United States has benefited largely from the structure of 157 00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:29,560 Speaker 3: the international economy as it's existed since World War Two. 158 00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:32,640 Speaker 3: There have been sacrifices the United States made. Of course, 159 00:08:32,880 --> 00:08:34,760 Speaker 3: it's not been in all good things. And I think, 160 00:08:34,840 --> 00:08:38,200 Speaker 3: certainly with respect to China, we've for too long allowed 161 00:08:38,280 --> 00:08:42,040 Speaker 3: China to do things like steal intellectual property from American companies, 162 00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 3: bar US companies from accessing the Chinese market without really 163 00:08:46,040 --> 00:08:48,720 Speaker 3: retaliating at all. And I credit President Trump during his 164 00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:52,240 Speaker 3: first term for really starting to fight back against Chinese 165 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:55,480 Speaker 3: economic aggression, and this is something that President Biden built upon. 166 00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:58,200 Speaker 3: I think what is a bit more questionable is the 167 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:01,720 Speaker 3: idea that we should be imposing massive tariffs on everybody else, 168 00:09:01,760 --> 00:09:05,360 Speaker 3: including our allies and other emerging economies that want to 169 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:07,840 Speaker 3: be closely associated with the United States, like the country 170 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:10,200 Speaker 3: like Vietnam, for instance, which I think, in a sort 171 00:09:10,200 --> 00:09:13,160 Speaker 3: of perverse fashion under these Trump tariffs, has a higher 172 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:14,200 Speaker 3: teriff rate than China. 173 00:09:14,440 --> 00:09:17,240 Speaker 2: You did an article for Politico where you suggested that 174 00:09:17,280 --> 00:09:20,520 Speaker 2: Trump could learn a lot from Nixon's Treasury Secretary William 175 00:09:20,600 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 2: Simon and how he used both economic and military incentives 176 00:09:24,880 --> 00:09:28,040 Speaker 2: to preserve US power. Talk a little bit about Simon. 177 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:30,160 Speaker 2: What was it that he understood and that he did 178 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:30,679 Speaker 2: so well. 179 00:09:31,360 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think Bill Simon is a good person for 180 00:09:33,880 --> 00:09:35,880 Speaker 3: us to look back to now, because in some ways 181 00:09:35,920 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 3: he has a lot in common with President Trump and 182 00:09:38,440 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 3: others in the current Trump administration. He was a career 183 00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:44,439 Speaker 3: bond trader on Wall Street, was not someone who is 184 00:09:44,520 --> 00:09:48,000 Speaker 3: really typically involved in politics. He initially joined the Nixon 185 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:51,520 Speaker 3: administration as the energies are and actually was in that 186 00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:54,760 Speaker 3: position when the Arab oil embargo happens in nineteen seventy three, 187 00:09:55,200 --> 00:09:57,440 Speaker 3: and he has this funny quote where he actually admits 188 00:09:57,480 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 3: that he's the guy who caused the lines at the 189 00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:02,000 Speaker 3: gap stations in America. So I think if he had 190 00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:03,520 Speaker 3: said that at the time, there may have been people 191 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:05,760 Speaker 3: with pitchforks outside of his house. But I think this 192 00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:09,040 Speaker 3: was something he said in retrospect. In nineteen seventy four, 193 00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:11,439 Speaker 3: we were not in a great place as a country. 194 00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:15,520 Speaker 3: Nixon had justin seventy one unilaterally delinked the dollar from 195 00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 3: gold because countries had lost faith in the value of 196 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:20,720 Speaker 3: the dollar. It was initially pegged at thirty five dollars 197 00:10:20,760 --> 00:10:22,760 Speaker 3: an ounce, and this was something we could not defend 198 00:10:22,800 --> 00:10:26,480 Speaker 3: any longer. We started running massive deficits because of the 199 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:30,040 Speaker 3: Vietnam War, we lost our position as the world's leading 200 00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:31,920 Speaker 3: oil producer, and then of course we're hit with a 201 00:10:31,920 --> 00:10:34,800 Speaker 3: big embargo from the Saudis after the yomki Por War 202 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:37,320 Speaker 3: in nineteen seventy three, and we were entering a period 203 00:10:37,320 --> 00:10:39,920 Speaker 3: of very low economic growth and high inflation, right this 204 00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:44,160 Speaker 3: idea that has not been called stagflation. And what the 205 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:47,120 Speaker 3: biggest problem that Simon saw at the time was that 206 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:50,000 Speaker 3: the US just couldn't continue running the deficits that it 207 00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:52,320 Speaker 3: was running, and so he had to come up with 208 00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:54,440 Speaker 3: a formula for this. And as Nixon is kind of 209 00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:58,559 Speaker 3: struggling amid the Watergate scandal, he appoints Simon as Treasury 210 00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:02,000 Speaker 3: Secretary in May of nineteen seventy four, and Simon comes 211 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:03,880 Speaker 3: up with, I think what winds up being this quite 212 00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:07,560 Speaker 3: ingenious idea, which is that he wants to convince the 213 00:11:07,600 --> 00:11:11,000 Speaker 3: Saudi government, which is getting paid all of these dollars 214 00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:13,840 Speaker 3: for its oil, to take the dollars that it's generating 215 00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:17,200 Speaker 3: and reinvest them in US government debt, to reinvest them 216 00:11:17,240 --> 00:11:20,160 Speaker 3: in treasuries. And the idea he comes up with isn't 217 00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:22,760 Speaker 3: to try to bully the Saudis into doing it, but 218 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:24,800 Speaker 3: really to try to cut a deal, this sort of 219 00:11:24,920 --> 00:11:28,680 Speaker 3: transactionalism that some people talk about in association with President Trump. 220 00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:31,800 Speaker 3: So in July of nineteen seventy four, he hops on 221 00:11:31,840 --> 00:11:35,520 Speaker 3: a plane flies to Jetta. Interestingly enough, on that plane 222 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:38,120 Speaker 3: winds up indulging in copious amounts of whiskey, so it 223 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:40,480 Speaker 3: gets nice and drunk before this meeting, which is I 224 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 3: guess funny too, because at the time Saudi Arabia had 225 00:11:42,760 --> 00:11:45,520 Speaker 3: banned alcohol. And he goes into the meeting with the 226 00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:48,720 Speaker 3: Saudi government, and he offers them the ability to buy 227 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:51,960 Speaker 3: US treasuries outside of the normal auctions, and also to 228 00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:55,400 Speaker 3: get access to US military equipment in exchange for agreeing 229 00:11:55,400 --> 00:11:58,480 Speaker 3: to price oil in dollars and to recycle the dollars 230 00:11:58,480 --> 00:12:01,640 Speaker 3: that Saudi Arabia was generating into US government debt, basically 231 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:05,160 Speaker 3: to plug the US deficit with the dollars that America 232 00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:08,000 Speaker 3: was paying it. And this is what then became known 233 00:12:08,040 --> 00:12:11,920 Speaker 3: as the petro dollar and has basically undergirded the entire 234 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:14,840 Speaker 3: dollar based financial system and frankly the way that America 235 00:12:14,920 --> 00:12:18,520 Speaker 3: finances its government ever since, because to this day it 236 00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:21,640 Speaker 3: is foreigners who are essentially allowing US to run these 237 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:24,560 Speaker 3: budget deficits year after year. And so I think the 238 00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:27,400 Speaker 3: lesson for Trump is if you think about how Simon 239 00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:30,080 Speaker 3: got the Saudis to agree to this deal. It wasn't 240 00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:34,160 Speaker 3: by threatening military action against Saudi Arabia or sanctions against 241 00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:36,559 Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia. It was coming with carrots. It was showing 242 00:12:36,600 --> 00:12:39,440 Speaker 3: the Saudis what was in their interests in terms of 243 00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:42,320 Speaker 3: linking their financial system and their economy to the United States. 244 00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:44,800 Speaker 3: And so what I'm hoping happens is in the coming 245 00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:48,680 Speaker 3: weeks and months after this initial tariff barrage, that Trump 246 00:12:48,920 --> 00:12:51,959 Speaker 3: can actually move to the carrot and start actually finding 247 00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:54,959 Speaker 3: ways to incentivize other countries to cut deals with the 248 00:12:55,080 --> 00:12:57,480 Speaker 3: United States and move their economies closer to US, as 249 00:12:57,480 --> 00:12:59,880 Speaker 3: opposed to pushing them into the laps of the Chinese 250 00:12:59,880 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 3: c Comunist Party, which I fear is what will happen 251 00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:03,560 Speaker 3: if these tariffs remain in place indefinitely. 252 00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:21,719 Speaker 2: One of the points that you make is that this 253 00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:26,280 Speaker 2: sustains the dollar. What would have happened if the Saudis 254 00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 2: had decided that they were going to denominate in Swiss 255 00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:32,920 Speaker 2: francs or neuros or Chinese You wan me, how would 256 00:13:32,920 --> 00:13:35,000 Speaker 2: that have changed the world in the American situation. 257 00:13:35,760 --> 00:13:37,200 Speaker 3: There's a few ways to answer it. I think on 258 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:40,640 Speaker 3: a macro level, the petro dollar really became the lynchpin 259 00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:44,599 Speaker 3: of an overall dollarized global financial system. Back in the 260 00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:47,760 Speaker 3: nineteen seventies, you basically had a very tiny foreign exchange 261 00:13:47,760 --> 00:13:51,559 Speaker 3: market effectively didn't exist. Today, you've got something like seven 262 00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:55,240 Speaker 3: trillion dollars in turnover every single day in foreign exchange, 263 00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:57,920 Speaker 3: and ninety percent of those trades involved the dollar. And 264 00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 3: so what that does is it gives the American government 265 00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:03,640 Speaker 3: this enormous leverage that we can threaten to cut other 266 00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:06,480 Speaker 3: countries off from the dollar. We can basically come and 267 00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:10,079 Speaker 3: if we need to resolve global financial crises by offering 268 00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:12,840 Speaker 3: swap lines. This is what's made the US Federal Reserve 269 00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:15,760 Speaker 3: kind of the center of the global financial system. And 270 00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:18,480 Speaker 3: then from just a domestic perspective, and there's a lot 271 00:14:18,480 --> 00:14:21,040 Speaker 3: of benefits. This is why many have called the dollars 272 00:14:21,120 --> 00:14:25,640 Speaker 3: role an exorbitant privilege. First of all, other countries, other governments, 273 00:14:25,920 --> 00:14:29,360 Speaker 3: other companies always have demand for dollars, really regardless of 274 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:31,480 Speaker 3: the fiscal situation in the United States, and this is 275 00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:34,720 Speaker 3: what has enabled the United States to run budget deficits. 276 00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:36,640 Speaker 3: The other piece, and this actually is a bit of 277 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:39,480 Speaker 3: a double edged sword, although I think the benefits outweigh 278 00:14:39,520 --> 00:14:42,040 Speaker 3: the costs. And this is another thing we can explore 279 00:14:42,080 --> 00:14:44,000 Speaker 3: because it's part of the rationale for some people in 280 00:14:44,040 --> 00:14:46,520 Speaker 3: the Trump administration to be seeking this so called Mara 281 00:14:46,600 --> 00:14:49,960 Speaker 3: Lago accord, which is that it makes the dollar more 282 00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:52,520 Speaker 3: valuable than it would be otherwise because normally the value 283 00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:54,920 Speaker 3: of your currency is just based on your terms of trade. 284 00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:58,080 Speaker 3: But because there's such a huge demand for American assets, 285 00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:01,040 Speaker 3: the dollar is stronger than would be based on just 286 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:03,840 Speaker 3: our trading position. And so what that does on the 287 00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:06,360 Speaker 3: plus side is it means that every American has more 288 00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:09,840 Speaker 3: purchasing power than they would otherwise. Their salaries allow them 289 00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:12,320 Speaker 3: to buy more goods than they would if the dollar 290 00:15:12,400 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 3: were valued more cheaply. The downside of it, and the 291 00:15:15,960 --> 00:15:18,080 Speaker 3: thing that some people in the Trump administration don't like, 292 00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:21,480 Speaker 3: is it weakens the export competitiveness of certain sectors in 293 00:15:21,520 --> 00:15:23,840 Speaker 3: the United States. It makes their goods more expensive than 294 00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:26,120 Speaker 3: they would be on foreign markets. And so folks who 295 00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:29,520 Speaker 3: believe that we need to revive manufacturing in the United 296 00:15:29,520 --> 00:15:31,440 Speaker 3: States have often thought that we need to weaken the 297 00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:33,760 Speaker 3: value of the dollar. What I would say, though, is 298 00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:37,280 Speaker 3: weakening the value of the dollar would help a segment 299 00:15:37,320 --> 00:15:40,720 Speaker 3: of society, manufacturers who are trying to export on global markets, 300 00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:42,520 Speaker 3: but it would harm everyone because we're all paid in 301 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:45,120 Speaker 3: dollars and so our paychecks would not go as far. 302 00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:47,600 Speaker 3: And so I think, ultimately, as you know better than anyone, 303 00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:50,760 Speaker 3: politics involves trade offs. There's no policy where everyone's a winner, 304 00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:53,560 Speaker 3: and so you've got to pick ultimately, what's your priority 305 00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:55,360 Speaker 3: and how many people you can help versus hurt with 306 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:56,400 Speaker 3: a specific policy. 307 00:15:56,840 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 2: As you look at the way the systems evolving right now, 308 00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:04,040 Speaker 2: how real is the danger that China could create an 309 00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:05,680 Speaker 2: alternative reserve currency. 310 00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:09,280 Speaker 3: I think it's very real. What China has been doing 311 00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:13,920 Speaker 3: is they've been building effectively parallel infrastructure to the dollar 312 00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:18,280 Speaker 3: based system. After twenty fourteen, after we imposed sanctions on 313 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:21,800 Speaker 3: Rusho for the annexation of Crimea, China started developing an 314 00:16:21,840 --> 00:16:24,840 Speaker 3: alternative to the SWIFT system, which is this financial messaging 315 00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:28,280 Speaker 3: system based in Brussels called CIPS, or the cross Border 316 00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:31,520 Speaker 3: Interbank Payment System. It started small, but it's been growing very, 317 00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:34,240 Speaker 3: very rapidly, and so I think the trajectory of growth 318 00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:36,240 Speaker 3: is such that if it keeps on growing at this pace, 319 00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:38,840 Speaker 3: eventually it will be not quite as large as Swift, 320 00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:42,360 Speaker 3: but a significant competitor. They've also done things like launch 321 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:45,520 Speaker 3: a central bank digital currency, the digital RMB, which they 322 00:16:45,560 --> 00:16:47,920 Speaker 3: launched in twenty twenty. And of course the United States 323 00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:49,480 Speaker 3: does not have an answer to this. You know, there's 324 00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:53,040 Speaker 3: no digital dollar or anything that we've responded to. The 325 00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:57,360 Speaker 3: biggest impediment to the RMB actually challenging the dollar is 326 00:16:57,400 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 3: of course, China's own political systemitarian, unmoored to the rule 327 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:05,919 Speaker 3: of law, arbitrary and with capital controls. Right, if you 328 00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:08,320 Speaker 3: have an investment in China, it's not clear that you'll 329 00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:10,280 Speaker 3: be able to get your money out. I think the 330 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:13,160 Speaker 3: key for China would be are they willing to be 331 00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:15,720 Speaker 3: more predictable as a player. Are they willing to loosen 332 00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:18,160 Speaker 3: capital controls? I think if they were to be willing 333 00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 3: to go in that direction, they would pose a threat 334 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:22,240 Speaker 3: to the dollar. The thing I'd say, though, before I 335 00:17:22,320 --> 00:17:24,600 Speaker 3: pass it back to you, is that the R and 336 00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:27,280 Speaker 3: B isn't the only potential rival to the dollar. Right, 337 00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:29,640 Speaker 3: you also have the Euro, which in some ways has 338 00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:32,159 Speaker 3: many of the same benefits that the dollar has, and 339 00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:36,160 Speaker 3: that most people trust European courts. The Euro is a 340 00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:39,520 Speaker 3: freely convertible currency. There aren't capital controls on it. You 341 00:17:39,520 --> 00:17:42,800 Speaker 3: already have something like twenty percent of global foreign exchange 342 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:45,800 Speaker 3: that's nominated in euros compared to sixty percent in dollars. 343 00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:48,240 Speaker 3: The biggest impediment for Europe, of course, has been that 344 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:50,359 Speaker 3: they don't issue joint debt, right they don't have a 345 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:54,200 Speaker 3: fiscal union. But right now with Europe really seriously pondering 346 00:17:54,280 --> 00:17:57,240 Speaker 3: a big rearmament program, and with a new chancellor in Germany, 347 00:17:57,440 --> 00:17:59,520 Speaker 3: it's possible that the Europeans could come around to join 348 00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:01,920 Speaker 3: debt ish tues. And I think that in some ways 349 00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:03,679 Speaker 3: could wind up posing a threat to the dollar in 350 00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:05,920 Speaker 3: the near term, more so than the Chinese R and B. 351 00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:11,720 Speaker 2: The process that you're describing is compounded, I think by 352 00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:16,120 Speaker 2: the whole situation that Trump is doing with the tariffs. 353 00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:20,080 Speaker 2: In a sense, we're sort of rattling the whole system. 354 00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:22,480 Speaker 3: I think that's right, and I think on the most 355 00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:25,560 Speaker 3: basic level, what the tariffs have done so far is 356 00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:29,119 Speaker 3: they've been really bad for American asset prices. Right the 357 00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:32,639 Speaker 3: stock market is down something like twenty five percent from 358 00:18:32,760 --> 00:18:35,600 Speaker 3: its peak in February, and so what that has done 359 00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:39,840 Speaker 3: is it's led asset managers to reallocate their investments from 360 00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:42,680 Speaker 3: the United States to other countries, to Europe actually number one. 361 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:45,680 Speaker 3: And there's actually something that's very interesting that I believe 362 00:18:45,760 --> 00:18:47,880 Speaker 3: could be a Canarian the coal mine about the real 363 00:18:47,920 --> 00:18:50,240 Speaker 3: threat that we see to the dollar today, which is 364 00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:54,400 Speaker 3: that economic theory suggests that if you impose tariffs, your 365 00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:58,800 Speaker 3: currency actually should strengthen because Americans would have smaller demand 366 00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:01,600 Speaker 3: for foreign currency. But what we've seen is with all 367 00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:04,119 Speaker 3: these tariffs, the dollars actually weakened quite a bit. And 368 00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:07,480 Speaker 3: I think that's because of this loss of confidence in 369 00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:10,600 Speaker 3: the American market because of the tariffs. And then secondarily, 370 00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:13,520 Speaker 3: I think there's a fear around the world about Trump's 371 00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:17,120 Speaker 3: use of economic warfare. I think, no matter what Trump did, 372 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:20,280 Speaker 3: because of honestly presidents dating back to George W. Bush 373 00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:23,680 Speaker 3: Obama Trump's first term, we're never going to get China 374 00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:27,920 Speaker 3: and Russia or Iran to feel comfortable relying on American 375 00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:29,240 Speaker 3: controlled economic systems. 376 00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:29,439 Speaker 2: Right. 377 00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:31,720 Speaker 3: We've declared them as our adversaries, and we've been waging 378 00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:34,960 Speaker 3: economic warfare against them now for years. But what is 379 00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:38,600 Speaker 3: new so far is really this economic warfare against everybody else, right, 380 00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:43,760 Speaker 3: against the Canada's, Mexicos, Europe's now even Vietnam, Japan, South Korea. 381 00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:46,400 Speaker 3: I think that's the thing that really risks a broader 382 00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:49,160 Speaker 3: referendum on the dollar. And that's why I'm hoping that 383 00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:52,560 Speaker 3: Trump ultimately views these tariffs more as negotiating leverage that 384 00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:55,240 Speaker 3: he can eventually peel back, as opposed to something that's 385 00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:58,240 Speaker 3: going to be a permanent feature of our world. 386 00:19:57,760 --> 00:19:59,840 Speaker 2: In your mind, this is sort of a stage set 387 00:19:59,880 --> 00:20:02,960 Speaker 2: up rather than a permanent experience. 388 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:05,919 Speaker 3: I'm expressing my hope. We've heard a lot of goals 389 00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:08,399 Speaker 3: attached to the tariffs, right. We've heard the tariffs as 390 00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:11,119 Speaker 3: a potential revenue raiser, right, maybe as a way to 391 00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:13,800 Speaker 3: justify a new tax cut or extension of the original 392 00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:16,159 Speaker 3: tax cuts. We've heard as tariffs as a way to 393 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:20,560 Speaker 3: protect American domestic manufacturing. And we've also heard of tariffs 394 00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:23,000 Speaker 3: as a way to get deals with foreign countries on 395 00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:27,720 Speaker 3: various issues, ranging from migration to lowering their own tariffs. 396 00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:30,359 Speaker 3: The thing is, these goals, many of them are at 397 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:33,000 Speaker 3: cross purposes with one another. If you want tariffs to 398 00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:36,000 Speaker 3: incentivize American companies to invest in the United States and 399 00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:38,919 Speaker 3: onshore manufacturing, you've got to tell those companies that these 400 00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:40,679 Speaker 3: tariffs are going to be in place for decades, right, 401 00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:42,840 Speaker 3: or otherwise they're not going to shell out the investment 402 00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:47,359 Speaker 3: domestically to actually move manufacturing back to the United States. 403 00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:50,439 Speaker 3: But then that then undermines our negotiating leverage, because if 404 00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:53,040 Speaker 3: we've already committed to these tariffs being in place for decades, 405 00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:55,800 Speaker 3: how are we then going to incentivize foreign countries to 406 00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:58,399 Speaker 3: do what we want. So I'm expressing a hope you 407 00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:01,040 Speaker 3: would know, frankly better than me, might be in Trump's mind. 408 00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:03,440 Speaker 3: But so far we've seen that these are various goals 409 00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:05,960 Speaker 3: he has. There are different factions in the administration duking 410 00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:07,920 Speaker 3: it out, and I just hope that the deal maker 411 00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:10,439 Speaker 3: Trump triumphs over the protectionist Trump. 412 00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:14,239 Speaker 2: In a world where people really want stability, we are 413 00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:17,080 Speaker 2: now guaranteeing them in a couple of years of pretty 414 00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:22,719 Speaker 2: amazing instability. I think I don't quite understand. On the 415 00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 2: banking side, we're able to have an extraordinary level of 416 00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:31,520 Speaker 2: control over how people have transactions internationally. 417 00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:33,359 Speaker 3: Yes, that's exactly right. 418 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:35,600 Speaker 1: And what's the practical effect of that? 419 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:39,560 Speaker 3: You know, my book is called choke Points because what 420 00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:42,199 Speaker 3: happened really in the nineteen nineties in the wake of 421 00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:45,760 Speaker 3: this hyper globalization. When you bring countries like China and 422 00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:49,160 Speaker 3: Russia and the countries in the former Soviet bloc into 423 00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:52,439 Speaker 3: global financial systems, into this dollar based financial system that 424 00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:55,720 Speaker 3: originates with Bill Simon's trip to Saudi Arabia in the 425 00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:59,080 Speaker 3: early seventies, what you get is a system where even 426 00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:02,080 Speaker 3: when two countries trade with each other. Let's say China 427 00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:05,640 Speaker 3: trading with Saudi Arabia, more often than not, that trade 428 00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:08,679 Speaker 3: is settled in US dollars, right, So when countries are 429 00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:11,040 Speaker 3: buying oil, no matter what their currency is, they're paying 430 00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:13,080 Speaker 3: the Saudis in the dollar. They're not paying in their 431 00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:16,160 Speaker 3: home currency. And if you think about it, just practically speaking, 432 00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:18,760 Speaker 3: think about all the currencies in the world, it wouldn't 433 00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:21,840 Speaker 3: make sense for a Saudi bank to hold every single 434 00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:24,720 Speaker 3: type of currency, right, So what banks do is they 435 00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:27,359 Speaker 3: tend to hold big stores of their own currency. So 436 00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:30,119 Speaker 3: in the Saudi case, the Saudi real and then the dollar, 437 00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:32,800 Speaker 3: and when they want to do business internationally, they'll take 438 00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:36,120 Speaker 3: the dollar and exchange that for the currency that they need. 439 00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:38,280 Speaker 3: It's basically the way I say it in my book, 440 00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:41,200 Speaker 3: is trying to do business internationally without access to the dollar, 441 00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:44,200 Speaker 3: it's kind of like traveling without access to a passport. 442 00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:47,320 Speaker 3: That's really the systemic significance of the dollar. And so 443 00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:50,880 Speaker 3: this key choke point. What it does is it allows 444 00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,720 Speaker 3: the president to say to a foreign bank, you know, 445 00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:56,280 Speaker 3: you don't have access to the dollar anymore, in which 446 00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:59,400 Speaker 3: case they're basically shut off from this global financial system. 447 00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:03,119 Speaker 3: So it is a tremendous lever that the president has 448 00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:07,240 Speaker 3: at his disposal. It's one that's worked tremendously well against 449 00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:10,560 Speaker 3: countries like Iran and Russia, and frankly, I think it's 450 00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:14,160 Speaker 3: a more effective geopolitical tool than, for instance, tariffs, which 451 00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:18,240 Speaker 3: wind up having broad based effects on Americans ourselves, right, 452 00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:20,920 Speaker 3: because all Americans wind up paying higher prices for goods 453 00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:39,800 Speaker 3: when you're using tariffs instead of financial sanctions, When you 454 00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:40,320 Speaker 3: have this. 455 00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:46,120 Speaker 2: Kind of approach, to what extent can you actually coerce 456 00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:49,679 Speaker 2: countries just by economic pressure. I've been watching Trump recently 457 00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:52,240 Speaker 2: as he gets more frustrated with Putin, and he's trying 458 00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:56,520 Speaker 2: to talk about dramatically deepening and expanding the sanctions, which 459 00:23:56,560 --> 00:23:59,800 Speaker 2: I soon means in some way using the international banking 460 00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:01,760 Speaker 2: How would that work? 461 00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:06,800 Speaker 3: People have asked, Well, Russia's economy is sort of muddling through, 462 00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:10,240 Speaker 3: they haven't fully collapsed. Doesn't this show that the sanctions 463 00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:12,840 Speaker 3: aren't as strong as we thought they were. The truth is, 464 00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:17,240 Speaker 3: the Russians are not sanctioned evasion magicians. They haven't come 465 00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:20,040 Speaker 3: out with this secret code that allows them to bypass 466 00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:23,760 Speaker 3: this dollar system. We've talked about. What happened was Frankly, 467 00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:26,640 Speaker 3: the United States fought this economic war since twenty twenty 468 00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:29,560 Speaker 3: two with one hand tied behind our back. Joe Biden 469 00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:34,000 Speaker 3: was unwilling ultimately to go after Russia's oil sales for 470 00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:38,119 Speaker 3: fear of worsening inflation domestically and potentially spiking prices at 471 00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:41,400 Speaker 3: the pump for Americans. And I understand why he had 472 00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:43,800 Speaker 3: this mentality. In twenty twenty two, you had oil prices 473 00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:46,159 Speaker 3: above one hundred dollars a barrel and inflation at a 474 00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:48,240 Speaker 3: four decade high, the highest it had been since a 475 00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:51,440 Speaker 3: Mount William Simon's time in the nineteen seventies. The thing is, though, 476 00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:53,960 Speaker 3: the situation is very different now. You know, inflation is 477 00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:57,160 Speaker 3: under control, oil prices are the lowest they've been in years. 478 00:24:57,160 --> 00:24:59,520 Speaker 3: There's something almost closer to sixty dollars a barrel all 479 00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:01,560 Speaker 3: the time that we're talking, and so there's quite a 480 00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,200 Speaker 3: bit of flexibility. I think Trump does have to crack 481 00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:07,239 Speaker 3: down on Russian oil sales. What would that look like? 482 00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:11,879 Speaker 3: It would mean threatening foreign buyers of Russian oil, be 483 00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:15,720 Speaker 3: they oil traders in places like Dubai or refineries and 484 00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,879 Speaker 3: places like China, with being cut off from the dollar 485 00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:22,359 Speaker 3: base system if they continue buying Russian oil. You'd have 486 00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:24,880 Speaker 3: to structure this cleverly. You couldn't ask them to go 487 00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:28,560 Speaker 3: to zero overnight, because Russia is a giant seller of oil. 488 00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:30,920 Speaker 3: They're selling like five million barrels of crude oil a day. 489 00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:33,639 Speaker 3: But what you could do is you could say that 490 00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:36,680 Speaker 3: you can only continue buying Russian oil if every three 491 00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:39,560 Speaker 3: to six months you're significantly reducing the amount of purchases 492 00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:42,160 Speaker 3: that you have. So you basically build a glide path 493 00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:45,280 Speaker 3: that over a six to twelve month period or an 494 00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:49,439 Speaker 3: eighteen month period, Russian oil sales have significantly dropped. And 495 00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:51,760 Speaker 3: I think the other benefit of creating that kind of 496 00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:54,879 Speaker 3: glide path is it also sends a market signal to 497 00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:58,000 Speaker 3: shale producers in places like my home state of Pennsylvania, 498 00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:01,160 Speaker 3: or Texas or Louisiana. They need to drill more oil 499 00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:04,359 Speaker 3: and basically have more product on global markets to compensate 500 00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:06,560 Speaker 3: for the loss of Russian exports. So I think there 501 00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:10,399 Speaker 3: is this formula where Trump could impose significant pressure on 502 00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:13,639 Speaker 3: Russia while also advancing his goal that he stated of 503 00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:15,119 Speaker 3: American energy dominance. 504 00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:20,800 Speaker 2: That would be the kind of sophisticated economic strategy which 505 00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:24,160 Speaker 2: might well coerce putin because if they don't have oil sales, 506 00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:26,840 Speaker 2: they don't have anything. Their whole economy will grind to 507 00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:30,359 Speaker 2: a halt. But that does require a very tough minded 508 00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:34,399 Speaker 2: with India, with China, with others, convincing them that they 509 00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:35,160 Speaker 2: have to do this. 510 00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:36,720 Speaker 3: It's not easy. 511 00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:37,000 Speaker 1: Look. 512 00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:39,280 Speaker 3: One of my early jobs in government, my first job 513 00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:41,440 Speaker 3: at the State Department after I moved over from Treasury, 514 00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:45,000 Speaker 3: is I was on the Iran sanctions team responsible for Asia. 515 00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:47,840 Speaker 3: So I had to go to places like Singapore and 516 00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:51,679 Speaker 3: Malaysia and talk to shipping companies and oil companies and 517 00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:54,240 Speaker 3: basically warn them that if they kept doing business with 518 00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:56,160 Speaker 3: Iran that we would cut them off from the US 519 00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:59,440 Speaker 3: financial system. And I know you've engaged with diplomacy. These 520 00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:02,439 Speaker 3: conversations are not the nicest conversations, right, and they're not 521 00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:05,919 Speaker 3: pleasant to have, and oftentimes countries don't like hearing it, 522 00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,720 Speaker 3: and so you better have a good reason. And I 523 00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:11,480 Speaker 3: think what helped us back in that period in twenty 524 00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:14,399 Speaker 3: twelve twenty thirteen, there are a couple things. First of all, 525 00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:17,040 Speaker 3: we had the backing of the US Congress. So US 526 00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:20,639 Speaker 3: Congress had imposed these sanctions with veto proof majorities, and 527 00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:23,359 Speaker 3: so I could credibly say as an American diplomat that 528 00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:26,000 Speaker 3: I'm here just implementing American law. I don't have a 529 00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:27,960 Speaker 3: choice whether or not to be here. So I think 530 00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:31,240 Speaker 3: there is a real, I think urgency for Congress to 531 00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:33,159 Speaker 3: get in the game, not just Trump. I think the 532 00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:36,080 Speaker 3: second thing we had at our disposal is we had 533 00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:39,400 Speaker 3: a viable strategy. We would say, look, we don't want 534 00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:41,960 Speaker 3: these sanctions to be in place indefinitely. We want a 535 00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:44,280 Speaker 3: nuclear deal. We're trying to do this so that we 536 00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:47,399 Speaker 3: can get a peaceful resolution to Iron's nuclear program that 537 00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:50,919 Speaker 3: doesn't involve going to war, and that was oftentimes persuasive. 538 00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:53,840 Speaker 3: So I think that in some ways the stars are 539 00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:56,440 Speaker 3: aligned right now for a similar strategy with Trump, where 540 00:27:56,920 --> 00:28:00,160 Speaker 3: Trump can credibly say that he wants to negotiate peace, 541 00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:03,359 Speaker 3: that he's willing to sort of sit down with Zelenski 542 00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:05,800 Speaker 3: and with Putin. But I think that he's going to 543 00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:08,760 Speaker 3: need significant leverage over Putin to get Putin to be serious, 544 00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:11,320 Speaker 3: because it's clear he's got leverage over Zelenski. He's used 545 00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:14,320 Speaker 3: that leverage in spades over the last couple months. But 546 00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:16,680 Speaker 3: what we don't have right now is enough leverage over 547 00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:19,360 Speaker 3: Putin to get him to take this diplomacy seriously. 548 00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:23,520 Speaker 2: Given Putin's background as a KGB agent and the degree 549 00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:26,360 Speaker 2: to which he has passionately committed to a great Russia strategy, 550 00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:29,320 Speaker 2: do you think there's any level of economic pain that 551 00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:30,320 Speaker 2: was stop him? 552 00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:34,160 Speaker 3: I mean, economic pain alone is always a tough sell, right, 553 00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:35,879 Speaker 3: But I think what you got to look at is 554 00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:39,280 Speaker 3: the overall situation that Putin is in right now, where 555 00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:42,800 Speaker 3: the war that he's fighting is not one that has 556 00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:46,680 Speaker 3: broad support in the Russian society. Yes, people will say 557 00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:48,640 Speaker 3: that they support the war, but do they want to 558 00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:50,680 Speaker 3: be drafted and put on the front lines in Ukraine? 559 00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:50,880 Speaker 1: No? 560 00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:53,120 Speaker 3: Do they want their kids to be drafted and put 561 00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:55,880 Speaker 3: on the front lines in Ukraine? No? Right, Russia's face 562 00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:58,520 Speaker 3: had hundreds of thousands of casualties. I mean, this has 563 00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:02,560 Speaker 3: been a catastrophe for Russia, and so there's pressure I 564 00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:05,480 Speaker 3: think from society in and of itself to potentially wind 565 00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:08,440 Speaker 3: down the war. What can economic pressure do? I think 566 00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:10,960 Speaker 3: what it will do is it will add another dimension 567 00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:13,880 Speaker 3: to that because so far Russia's economy has kind of 568 00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:17,440 Speaker 3: muddled through because of this enhanced military spending and kind 569 00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:20,400 Speaker 3: of moving into a military led economy that Putin has 570 00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:22,360 Speaker 3: done over the last few years. But if all of 571 00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:26,080 Speaker 3: a sudden you get into hyperinflation territory and a substantial 572 00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:28,640 Speaker 3: recession in Russia, I do think there would be some 573 00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:31,760 Speaker 3: pressure from society that Putin would have to respond to. 574 00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:35,000 Speaker 3: And I think this is another important point about sanctions, 575 00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:38,600 Speaker 3: and it's an unfortunate reality, is that governments that have 576 00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:42,200 Speaker 3: no accountability whatsoever can be quite hard to get them 577 00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:44,600 Speaker 3: to change their policies. And that's why I think sanctions 578 00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:47,360 Speaker 3: have not worked well against you know, North Korea for instance, 579 00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:51,040 Speaker 3: or Cuba. But the Russian people, while yes they're living 580 00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:53,880 Speaker 3: in an authoritarian state right now, you know, they did 581 00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:56,960 Speaker 3: get used to relatively high standards of living and Putin 582 00:29:57,040 --> 00:30:00,200 Speaker 3: was able to really ossify his control over Russia in 583 00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:03,440 Speaker 3: the early two thousands because standards of living were going up, 584 00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:05,440 Speaker 3: the Russian economy was doing better than it was in 585 00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:08,680 Speaker 3: the nineteen nineties. I think if that progress is rapidly undone, 586 00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:10,880 Speaker 3: I do think he'll feel some pressure both from below 587 00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:13,960 Speaker 3: and frankly from people in his inner circle to change course. 588 00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:18,480 Speaker 2: It's a fascinating situation because the truth is that all 589 00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:22,280 Speaker 2: of these leaders, whether it's Jijinping or it's putin. In 590 00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:25,400 Speaker 2: both of those cases, popular support matters, and I have 591 00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:29,920 Speaker 2: a hunch that Hamani the Ayatola also is very worried 592 00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:33,120 Speaker 2: about the larger Iranian. 593 00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:35,240 Speaker 1: Population and whether or not in fact they're. 594 00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:37,560 Speaker 2: About No, I don't think when you get to say 595 00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:39,720 Speaker 2: to a North Korea that it has the same effect, 596 00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:42,520 Speaker 2: or for that matter, of Cuba, because of their very 597 00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:46,440 Speaker 2: effective police states and they're very willing to be radically coercive. 598 00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:48,800 Speaker 2: But originally it was one of those people who thought 599 00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:52,600 Speaker 2: that Young Chopeg's Southern tour talking about the need for 600 00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:56,560 Speaker 2: market economies was actually a first step towards opening up 601 00:30:56,640 --> 00:31:00,520 Speaker 2: Chinese society. That was embarrassed to realize that. Actually Dun 602 00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:03,880 Speaker 2: Chopeg was one of the fourteen founding members of the 603 00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:07,160 Speaker 2: Chinese Communist Party in Powis during World War One, went 604 00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:10,200 Speaker 2: to Lenin University in Moscow for a year and is 605 00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:15,240 Speaker 2: a hardcore, totally dedicated Leninist, And what he was actually 606 00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:18,160 Speaker 2: saying was we need to have a market economy so 607 00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:20,200 Speaker 2: we're doing well enough that they. 608 00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:21,000 Speaker 1: Won't throw us out. 609 00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:25,320 Speaker 2: It was actually a step towards consolidating the dictatorship, not reforming. 610 00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:27,560 Speaker 2: It's one of the reasons I had to really rethink 611 00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:30,200 Speaker 2: a lot of what we were doing. I don't sense 612 00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:34,400 Speaker 2: that you have the kind of party structure in Russia 613 00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:37,120 Speaker 2: that you have in China. That's a very very different environment. 614 00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:40,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, the Russian system is more personalist. It's sort of 615 00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:44,160 Speaker 3: more rooted in the Russian intelligence services and Putin's own 616 00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:46,760 Speaker 3: roots in the KGB, you know, the government itself, and 617 00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:49,080 Speaker 3: the most powerful people are really what I would call 618 00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:51,560 Speaker 3: Putin loyalists or Putin cronies. There are people that he 619 00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:54,520 Speaker 3: is personally inserted in those roles. There are people who 620 00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:57,280 Speaker 3: would not be within one thousand miles of power if 621 00:31:57,280 --> 00:32:00,360 Speaker 3: it weren't for being Putin's childhood Judo part or or 622 00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:03,400 Speaker 3: something like that. I don't think that we should get 623 00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:05,320 Speaker 3: giddy right and think that, oh, sanctions are going to 624 00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:08,120 Speaker 3: cause regime change in Russia. I don't think that's plausible. 625 00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:11,680 Speaker 3: I think what economic pressure can do is it can 626 00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:14,680 Speaker 3: put pressure on Putin and give him a reason to 627 00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:17,160 Speaker 3: actually cut a deal, because, look, you know, in some 628 00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:19,840 Speaker 3: ways Putin's already has in some ways what he wanted 629 00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:22,360 Speaker 3: in twenty fourteen, which is he's got a land bridge 630 00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:25,960 Speaker 3: to crimea right they took Mariupol. They've connected the Crimean 631 00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:29,720 Speaker 3: peninsula by land to Russia. He does not control all 632 00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:31,800 Speaker 3: of the oblast that he has claimed to annex, but 633 00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:34,000 Speaker 3: you know, would he be willing to back out of 634 00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:36,920 Speaker 3: those and claim victory. I think he probably could claim 635 00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:38,640 Speaker 3: victory to the Russian people. I don't think if he 636 00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:41,360 Speaker 3: were to stop now give up some of the territory 637 00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:43,760 Speaker 3: he's conquered, but then also get to keep things like 638 00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:45,880 Speaker 3: Crimea and parts of the Dunboss, I don't think the 639 00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:48,280 Speaker 3: Russian people would revolt. I think it's more likely that 640 00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:51,160 Speaker 3: the Russian people revolt if you draft another one hundred 641 00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:54,320 Speaker 3: thousand Russians and send him to fight and die in Ukraine. Meanwhile, 642 00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:57,600 Speaker 3: while their standard of living is collapsing under oil sanctions 643 00:32:57,640 --> 00:33:00,719 Speaker 3: that I hope the Trump administration will consider implementing. 644 00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:03,600 Speaker 2: I think that the Trump team is very serious about 645 00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:07,600 Speaker 2: getting Putin's attention. They've been patient, they've been pleasant, because 646 00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:10,920 Speaker 2: that's a negotiating style, But down deep, they're very very 647 00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:12,320 Speaker 2: serious about getting his attention. 648 00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:15,840 Speaker 3: Music to my ears and look, I've heard comments from 649 00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:19,240 Speaker 3: top Trump officials like Scott Besson, for instance, that do 650 00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:21,840 Speaker 3: make me sanguine about the possibility of doing things like 651 00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:25,480 Speaker 3: oil sanctions. If you look at Mike Waltz's writing before 652 00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:29,200 Speaker 3: he became the National Security Advisor, or Marco Rubio's comments 653 00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:31,440 Speaker 3: when he was in the Senate, they suggest that those 654 00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:33,560 Speaker 3: people would be in favor of these types of sanctions. 655 00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:35,560 Speaker 3: I think the real question is is Trump on board. 656 00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:38,040 Speaker 3: The thing it's interesting is you may have seen this. 657 00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:40,960 Speaker 3: There's a new Senate bill. It's got I think fifty 658 00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:44,760 Speaker 3: co sponsors already. I think half Republicans, half Democrats that 659 00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:48,920 Speaker 3: would put very aggressive secondary oil sanctions on Russia. And 660 00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:50,640 Speaker 3: so what I'm going to be looking for in the 661 00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:53,800 Speaker 3: coming days and weeks is what's the White House's perspective 662 00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:55,680 Speaker 3: on this bill. Is this something that they are going 663 00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:57,880 Speaker 3: to fight tooth and nail, in which case I doubt 664 00:33:57,920 --> 00:33:59,680 Speaker 3: it goes anywhere because the Speaker Johnson is not going 665 00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:01,560 Speaker 3: to let it see the light of day. Or is 666 00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:03,680 Speaker 3: it something that they see as hey, this is our 667 00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:05,320 Speaker 3: chance to have a real bad cop, you know, to 668 00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:08,440 Speaker 3: allow Congress to step up and post some serious sanctions 669 00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:12,440 Speaker 3: and then give our diplomats some real leverage with Putin 670 00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:13,560 Speaker 3: at the negotiating table. 671 00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:15,920 Speaker 1: Edward, I want to thank you for joining me. 672 00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:19,279 Speaker 2: Your new book, Choke Points American Power in the Age 673 00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:22,840 Speaker 2: of Economic Warfare is available now on Amazon and in 674 00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:26,560 Speaker 2: bookstores everywhere. It is a very relevant book to exactly 675 00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:28,799 Speaker 2: what we're doing right now, and I recommend that every 676 00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:31,000 Speaker 2: citizen get a copy and read it. And I really 677 00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:32,680 Speaker 2: appreciate you helping educate us. 678 00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:34,400 Speaker 3: Thanks so much for having me on the show. I 679 00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:35,520 Speaker 3: really enjoyed our conversation. 680 00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:41,680 Speaker 2: Thank you to my guest, Edward Fishman. You can get 681 00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:45,000 Speaker 2: a link to buy his new book, Choke Points American 682 00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:47,959 Speaker 2: Power in the Age of Economic Warfare on our show 683 00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:51,080 Speaker 2: page at newtsworld dot com. News World is produced by 684 00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:55,360 Speaker 2: gengishree sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is Guarnci Sloan. 685 00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:58,560 Speaker 2: Our researcher is Rachel Peterson. Art work for the show 686 00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:01,759 Speaker 2: was created by Steve Special Thanks to. 687 00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:03,040 Speaker 1: The team at Gingwish three sixty. 688 00:35:03,560 --> 00:35:05,680 Speaker 2: If you've been enjoying newts World, I hope you'll go 689 00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:08,720 Speaker 2: to Apple Podcast and both rate us with five stars 690 00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:11,319 Speaker 2: and give us a review so others can learn what 691 00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:14,319 Speaker 2: it's all about. Right now, listeners of newts World can 692 00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:17,799 Speaker 2: sign up for my three free weekly columns at Gingwishtree 693 00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:19,920 Speaker 2: sixty dot com slash newsletter. 694 00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:22,200 Speaker 1: I'm newt Gingriish. This is Newtsworld.