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Speaker 1: Two, three brights in the middle of the failing.

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Speaker 2: He loves football got.

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Speaker 1: Down in the one yard line.

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Speaker 3: How about that?

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Speaker 1: That is the ultimate kabash.

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Speaker 4: Man.

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Speaker 1: We are underway. Hello everyone, Welcome back to the Action

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Speaker 1: Network NFL podcast. It is the week eleven Friday Show.

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Speaker 1: I'm Matthew Friedman, the editor in chief of Fantasy Labs

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Speaker 1: in joining me to break down all of the games

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Speaker 1: coming up this week. And is Chris Raymond, a senior

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Speaker 1: editor and analyst at the Action Network at a co

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Speaker 1: host of I'll Take That Bet on ESPN Plus. You

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Speaker 1: can follow him in the Action Network app at Chris Raymond. Chris.

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Speaker 1: Let's unfortunately kick off by looking back at last week.

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Speaker 1: You were one in five. I was one and five.

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Speaker 1: We were total. I mean, I don't even know what

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Speaker 1: to say. On the season, You're twenty seven thirty and two.

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Speaker 1: I am far behind that at twenty four to thirty

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Speaker 1: one and four. I just have to say, like, big picture,

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Speaker 1: I feel like we're giving an inaccurate representation because we're

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Speaker 1: picking these on the games that are getting the most

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Speaker 1: action in the app, and it's not necessarily like the

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Speaker 1: bets that we are making, you know what I mean?

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Speaker 4: Like yeah, but I mean we're still fucking out because

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Speaker 4: we're like because like in reality, what we should just

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Speaker 4: be doing with all of these bets is less analysis

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Speaker 4: and more just like fade the public, because that's really

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Speaker 4: what we're supposed to be doing with these like highly

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Speaker 4: bet games, but like a lot of times we end

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Speaker 4: up taking favorites or overs, which burns us on our

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Speaker 4: records in the bets.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's not good. My takeaway from weight ten

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Speaker 1: is pretty much the takeaway I've had every week. I

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Speaker 1: need to stick to props and stay away from games

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Speaker 1: or change change my strategy with games and spreads and

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Speaker 1: overs and unders because it's not working. But uh yeah,

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Speaker 1: I'm still doing okay on the props, and that, of

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Speaker 1: course is because of the Fantasy Laps Props tool, which

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Speaker 1: is powered by our industry leading projections created by Sean

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Speaker 1: Corner aka the Odds Maker. This season, the NFL props

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Speaker 1: with a bet quality of ten are one, seventy nine,

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Speaker 1: eighty nine, and six, good for a hit rate of

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Speaker 1: sixty five percent. To access the tool, subscribe to Fantasy Labs,

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Speaker 1: where you can get a five day trial for just

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Speaker 1: fifteen ninety five. Chris Earlier this week, you did the

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Speaker 1: Monday show with Ian Hartitz, I did the Wednesday show

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Speaker 1: with Peter Jennings and odds Maker. Ian was actually the

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Speaker 1: guest for that show. Great show. Ian, of course is

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Speaker 1: a very knowledgeable dude. Everyone wants you to check out

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Speaker 1: that show. And then we've got the Friday Show. If

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Speaker 1: you are enjoying the Action Network NFL podcast, please rate

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Speaker 1: and review the show. Subscribe, unsubscribe, resubscribe. Let's jump into

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Speaker 1: it our first and five segment. We're going to break

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Speaker 1: down the five games that right now are getting the

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Speaker 1: most action in the Action Network app, the games that

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Speaker 1: have the five highest ticket accounts. What a game to

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Speaker 1: start with? The five and four Titans at the four

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Speaker 1: and five Colts favored by one. Actually, now I'm looking

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Speaker 1: at this in the app and also on the live

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Speaker 1: odds page at Action Network, that game has moved to

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Speaker 1: a pick them forty nine point over under. The spread

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Speaker 1: is down from three, the total is up from forty eight.

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Speaker 1: The Titans are coming off a big win against the Patriots.

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Speaker 1: Mariota is starting to look fully healthy. The Colts have

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Speaker 1: won three straight games that are doing a really good

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Speaker 1: job of keeping Andrew luck upright, what are your thoughts

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Speaker 1: on this game?

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Speaker 4: You've got to take the coats of this, but I

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Speaker 4: feel like I think that this line is an overreaction

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Speaker 4: to the Titans covering the spread and pulling off the

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Speaker 4: upsets against two first of all, teams that the public

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Speaker 4: actually loves to bet on in the Dallas Cowboys and

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Speaker 4: the New England Patriots. And so now you know this

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Speaker 4: game is kind of moving down to a pickup. I

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Speaker 4: do understand it. I think the coat the coach defense

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Speaker 4: is still pretty bad. Andrew Luck is kind of living

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Speaker 4: very dangerously. He has three or more touchdown passes in

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Speaker 4: six straight games. He has multiple touchdown passes in all

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Speaker 4: but one of his games this year. And then at

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Speaker 4: the same time, he's got a six point seven yard

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Speaker 4: per attempt figure, which ranks thirtieth in the league. And

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Speaker 4: that's right down there with Donald Rosen Flash and now

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Speaker 4: and are the only ones below them.

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Speaker 2: So it's kind of like a slippery smoke with him.

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Speaker 4: But if this game is a pick them, especially with

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Speaker 4: Indianapolis at home, just give me the better the better

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Speaker 4: quarterback in that spot is nothing really else I would

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Speaker 4: kind of put above that at this point than taking

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Speaker 4: the better quarterback in a game where I think both

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Speaker 4: of these defenses aren't great. I know Tennessee has played

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Speaker 4: better at times, but I trust Angel Luck at home.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. So to give you some insight into my horrible

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Speaker 1: non winning process, when some lines come out on Sunday night,

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Speaker 1: the first thing I do is if I have like

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Speaker 1: a gut reaction, like a leen right away, I will

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Speaker 1: put just a little bit on the side that I

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Speaker 1: have a lean on that way, like I feel like

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Speaker 1: I have something on it, right, And my lean immediately

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Speaker 1: was Tennessee plus three, right, like that was my leane.

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Speaker 1: And then as the week has progressed, I've talked myself

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Speaker 1: into Indianapolis and now that it is a pick em

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Speaker 1: like part of me is like I need to take

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Speaker 1: Indy at a pick and like, hope I can maybe

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Speaker 1: sort of like middle this or something, although I don't

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Speaker 1: I don't think that's like a great middle but like,

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Speaker 1: if you listen to the Wednesday edition of the Favorites podcast,

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Speaker 1: Bob Scucci has like clearly said the sharps are on

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Speaker 1: Tennessee in this game, and like I mentally like I

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Speaker 1: feel that, but like my heart is like no, the

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Speaker 1: more I dig into this, the better team is clearly

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Speaker 1: the Colts. Like I might be wrong, but like I'm

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Speaker 1: I'm not really all that impressed by Tennessee's defense. I

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Speaker 1: know that they have done a good job against the Patriots,

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Speaker 1: but other than that, I don't think they have any

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Speaker 1: really good wins on their record, And I think, like

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Speaker 1: the Patriots, that's more of a like they match up

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Speaker 1: well specifically with the Patriots, and like there was so

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Speaker 1: there were so many like revenge angles in that game

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Speaker 1: with the Patriots, like guys who have been in that organization,

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Speaker 1: that it just seemed like that's maybe more of an

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Speaker 1: isolated thing. I don't know if I want to put

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Speaker 1: too much stock into what happened last week, and if

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Speaker 1: you are discounting that week, it's like, what did they

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Speaker 1: have on their record that would make you feel they

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Speaker 1: could actually beat the Colts in Indianapolis when the Colts

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Speaker 1: seem to be getting better each week, you know what

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Speaker 1: I mean?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think, like to be honest with you, I

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Speaker 4: don't see a big difference between these teams. I just

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Speaker 4: think that you know, we're not the only ones that

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Speaker 4: you know, obviously, listen to to Scooch and listen to

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Speaker 4: the pods and just kind of monitor this stuff. So

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Speaker 4: I think that this sharp action, you know that people

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Speaker 4: knowing that the sharps are on Tennessee has kind of

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Speaker 4: just driven the line.

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Speaker 2: A little bit too far. Like I think that these

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Speaker 2: teams are pretty evenly matched.

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Speaker 4: I think Tennessee I wouldn't be surprised if Tennessee went

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Speaker 4: into Indianapolis and won this game.

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Speaker 2: I think they're playing a lot smarter too.

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Speaker 4: They have Dean Lewis on the field for about eighty

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Speaker 4: percent of their snaps.

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Speaker 2: Now, I think that's smart.

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Speaker 4: Corey Davis getting a thirty one percent target here, I

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Speaker 4: think that's smart when you don't really have many other

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Speaker 4: players with the Duyne Walker you know out and.

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Speaker 2: So I think Tennessee is a solid team. I think

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Speaker 2: they've overachieved a bit on defense.

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Speaker 4: But it's just like as a pick them with Indianapolis

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Speaker 4: at home with the better quarterback, I'm going to go

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Speaker 4: in that direction. But like I wouldn't, to be honest

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Speaker 4: with you'd be surprised if Tennessee won this game. Like

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Speaker 4: I'm I'm done underestimating Tennessee. I think a lot of

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Speaker 4: that came from when they lost to Buffalo earlier.

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Speaker 2: In the year. But we've seen that Buffalo.

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Speaker 4: I mean, they're bad, but they're not like all time bad,

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Speaker 4: Like they could beat NFL teams any given Sunday.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it wouldn't surprise me. And like so

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Speaker 1: I took a small position on this on Sunday night.

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Speaker 1: I don't think I'm going to put any more on

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Speaker 1: this in either direction because I don't feel that strongly

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Speaker 1: about this game. But if I had to pick something now,

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Speaker 1: I think I'd probably go with India to pick. Let's

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Speaker 1: go to the next game. The four and five Cowboys

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Speaker 1: at the four and five Falcons. Falcons favored by three

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Speaker 1: a forty eight point five over under. The spread is

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Speaker 1: down from four and a half. The total is up

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Speaker 1: from where is it? I believe forty nine, No, forty

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Speaker 1: seven and a half. The total is up from forty

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Speaker 1: seven and a half. I'm putting in the wrong numbers

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Speaker 1: in my spreadsheet here. Both teams need to win to

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Speaker 1: stay in the wild card race. The Cowboys are coming

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Speaker 1: off a big win on Monday Night Football in Philadelphia.

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Speaker 1: The Falcons are coming off a disappointing road loss to

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Speaker 1: the Browns Atlanta.

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Speaker 4: For something they got me last week because I thought

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Speaker 4: they would go over their total with Cleveland, and amazingly

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Speaker 4: it was Cleveland that ended up going over their total

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Speaker 4: and Atlanta didn't do their part to get the game

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Speaker 4: over the total. But they had that one good game

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Speaker 4: against Washington on the road. But besides that, they've scored

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Speaker 4: seventeen or fewer points in their other three road games.

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Speaker 4: But the Falcons have scored thirty one or more and

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Speaker 4: four of the five home games. So it's a situation

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Speaker 4: where I don't know how valid that is in a

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Speaker 4: small sample, but you do tend to see that sometimes

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Speaker 4: with these dome teams.

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Speaker 2: We see this from Atlanta before. Matt Ryan's numbers have

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Speaker 2: been better at home.

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Speaker 4: So that, combined with the fact that Dion Jones are

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Speaker 4: not this defense really scares me just in terms of

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Speaker 4: how bad it can be. I mean, they gave up

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Speaker 4: twenty three for one hundred ninety one yards and a

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Speaker 4: touchdown to Cleveland backs last week. Another eight catches for

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Speaker 4: seventy yards and two touchdowns to Cleveland's running backs in

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Speaker 4: the passing game they Baker Mayfield was seventeen of twenty

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Speaker 4: and had three touchdowns. I mean, I think that both

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Speaker 4: of these teams, especially Dallas with getting a little bit

200
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Speaker 4: better in the passing game out that they're playing Michael

201
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Speaker 4: Gallup eighty percent of the snaps. Now that they have

202
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Speaker 4: Amari Cooper Zeke look's better out there as well.

203
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Speaker 2: I'm going with the over in this one.

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Speaker 4: I think it's a pretty kind of team over under

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Speaker 4: after the Falcons went under last week. But back at home,

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Speaker 4: I like, like I feel a little more confident in

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Speaker 4: the over than I do in which team at this

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Speaker 4: point is going to win this game.

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Speaker 2: So this close spread, I'm not really trying to touch it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, if I were picking on the over under, I

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Speaker 1: would go over here. I definitely understated it. I think

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Speaker 1: forty eight and a half is low considering just how

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Speaker 1: good the Falcons are on offense and how poor they

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Speaker 1: are on defense. But you know, I'm like a self

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Speaker 1: respecting Cowboys hating fan, so like I have to pick

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Speaker 1: against them in this spot, and like, part of this

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Speaker 1: is a probably a reaction, more specifically an overreaction to

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Speaker 1: my inability last week to see that Cowboys Eagles Monday

219
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Speaker 1: night game. For what it was like, I picked the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: I thought the Eagles would crush the Cowboys. I didn't

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Speaker 1: really think of how much of a get up game

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Speaker 1: that was for the Cowboys, right, And like so my

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Speaker 1: bold call on the Wednesday show was that the Falcons

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Speaker 1: are going to crush the Cowboys in this game, because

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Speaker 1: I think this is a letdown spot from what was

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Speaker 1: like a huge spot for the Cowboys last week. Like

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Speaker 1: the division is on the line. They're facing division rivals.

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Speaker 1: If they hate any team in their division, most I

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Speaker 1: think it's probably the Eagles at this point. They're facing

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Speaker 1: the world champs, right, who sent a kicker out on

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Speaker 1: the stage at the draft in Dallas to mock them

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Speaker 1: about me seen out on a tight end named Dallas

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Speaker 1: the day that they're long time franchised tight end retired.

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Speaker 1: It's like there's like so much bad blood between these

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Speaker 1: teams and it was just such a massive spot. But

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Speaker 1: like now I'm thinking, like they they have to come

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Speaker 1: down from that. Like Garrett cannot pull like a Ron

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Speaker 1: Rivera and become like a like a gambling type of

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Speaker 1: play caller. Like that's just not who he is. He

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Speaker 1: can maybe do that one game, right, And so, like

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Speaker 1: they had the fake punt they mind up to go

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Speaker 1: forward on fourth down, but like that's what it would

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Speaker 1: take for them, I think to win this game, and

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Speaker 1: that's not the type of team that they are, so

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Speaker 1: like I'm expecting like a total regression back to their

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Speaker 1: normal incompetent play calling. So like I'm I'm hammering the

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Speaker 1: Falcons minus three. I think this is a double digit

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Speaker 1: win for them, and I might be wrong, and you know,

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Speaker 1: if I'm wrong, then whatever, my my team wins, and

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Speaker 1: i still hate them and hate myself, but I'm definitely

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Speaker 1: Atlanta in this game.

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Speaker 4: This is this is where fan hood takes you, because

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Speaker 4: like I'm sitting here looking at this game, like i

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Speaker 4: think the Falcons will win it by about three points.

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Speaker 2: It's just hilarious. How like when you're a fan of

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Speaker 2: a team, man, it's just.

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Speaker 4: Like it's kind of like a win win, Like you

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Speaker 4: have to bet against them because then if you if

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Speaker 4: they lose, you win your bet, but if they win,

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Speaker 4: you lose your bet, but your team won.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean at this point, I would rather win

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Speaker 1: my bet. And see, I'm just counting on them losing anyway.

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Speaker 1: But I think the return of Dion Jones and you mentioned,

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Speaker 1: you know, even with his return, this is still a

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Speaker 1: defense that needs a lot of help. But I think

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Speaker 1: his return will help a lot in the running game,

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Speaker 1: and like that's that's all the Cowboys have at this point. Like,

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Speaker 1: I'm still not putting a lot of faith in their

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Speaker 1: passing game. So I think the return of Dion Jones

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Speaker 1: that should help them a little bit, both in run

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Speaker 1: defense and in pass defense against running backs. And like,

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Speaker 1: I think his return is going to make a substantial difference.

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Speaker 1: I think it will keep the Cowboys from extending drives.

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Speaker 1: The four or five Eagles at the eight to one

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Speaker 1: Saints Saints favored by eight and a half a fifty

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Speaker 1: six point over under. The spread is down from nine,

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Speaker 1: the total is up from fifty four and a half.

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Speaker 1: The Eagles are yet to win two games in a

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Speaker 1: row this year, and the Saints have won eight games

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Speaker 1: in a row since barely losing their home opener, and

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Speaker 1: not barely losing, but since losing their home opener. What

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Speaker 1: are your thoughts on this game?

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Speaker 4: I think if this is one where if I'm taking

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Speaker 4: the spread here, I am going against the public and

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Speaker 4: I'm taking the Eagles.

286
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Speaker 2: I think that their game against the cowvinch.

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Speaker 4: I mean, I don't think they were particularly bad or

288
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Speaker 4: like you know, had a big letdown I think that

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Speaker 4: Carson Wentz interception where he just didn't see believe it

290
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Speaker 4: was vander ash the linebacker early on in a game

291
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Speaker 4: just kind of was a play that ultimately ended up

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Speaker 4: kind of costing them a little bit more just because

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Speaker 4: it kind of turned the field around or whatnot. But

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Speaker 4: I think I'm going with the over in this game

295
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Speaker 4: because I trust New Orleans to score points back at

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Speaker 4: home in the Dome. Y. You know, Philly they're deep,

297
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Speaker 4: like we see we saw Dallas kind of coming there

298
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Speaker 4: into Philly and put up a decent amount of points

299
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Speaker 4: on them. You know, their defense isn't like this prohibitive

300
00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:04,640
Speaker 4: defense that's going to really slow down a team like

301
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Speaker 4: the Saints at home in the Dome. And then on

302
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Speaker 4: the other side, I still think the Eagles are a

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Speaker 4: good team and they have a good offense. I mean,

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Speaker 4: we saw Zach Ertz go bonkers. Carson Wentz. He has

305
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Speaker 4: had a lot of dropped interceptions, so that's the thing.

306
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Speaker 4: His touchdown interception ratio looks a little better than it

307
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Speaker 4: actually should be.

308
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Speaker 2: But at the same time, he's still playing well.

309
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Speaker 4: He's got an additional weapon now on Golden Tate with

310
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Speaker 4: a whole week to prepare. I think that's really going

311
00:14:25,640 --> 00:14:27,080
Speaker 4: to I think they're gonna use them a lot more

312
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Speaker 4: this week. Obviously, Nelson aglor and they're a deep team

313
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Speaker 4: with a deep offense, and I think, you know, the

314
00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:35,280
Speaker 4: Saints defense isn't really that good. You know, they just

315
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Speaker 4: happen to run into a Bengals team that didn't have

316
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Speaker 4: Aj Green, which of course changes the whole dynamic of

317
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Speaker 4: that offense. So I trust that points toly scored more

318
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Speaker 4: than I trust that New Orleans will win big, or

319
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Speaker 4: win by like nine or ten instead of eight or

320
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Speaker 4: seven or six.

321
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Speaker 2: So I am going with the over fifty six in

322
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Speaker 2: this game.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, if you look in the bet Labs tools, obviously

324
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Speaker 1: through Sports Insights part of the Action Network, if you

325
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Speaker 1: look at those tools and you look specifically at Drew Brees'

326
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Speaker 1: games in the super Dome for the entirety of his

327
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Speaker 1: time in New Orleans, so since two thousand and six,

328
00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:20,160
Speaker 1: you will see that Saints' overs have been the most

329
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Speaker 1: profitable overs for the last like twelve plus years. It's

330
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Speaker 1: basically just because, well, you have multiple things going on here,

331
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Speaker 1: but primarily, like Drew Brees at home in the Dome,

332
00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:35,920
Speaker 1: they score points and their defense historically has been bad

333
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Speaker 1: enough to allow opponents to score enough points to juice

334
00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:44,960
Speaker 1: the overs significantly, So like blindly just taking the over

335
00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:48,800
Speaker 1: here is always like it's hard to say it's always sharp,

336
00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:52,320
Speaker 1: but it's definitely not dumb because like for the last

337
00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:56,000
Speaker 1: twelve years, it's paid off. So I definitely see the

338
00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:58,600
Speaker 1: over here. And then for all of the other reasons

339
00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:03,200
Speaker 1: that you mentioned of the two defenses right specifically the

340
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Speaker 1: fact that the Eagles secondary is so injured right now,

341
00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:10,160
Speaker 1: I can definitely see how New Orleans scores a lot

342
00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:13,680
Speaker 1: of points. I'm taking New Orleans because I like how

343
00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:17,040
Speaker 1: they match up against this defense. I'm going against the

344
00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:20,480
Speaker 1: Sharps in this and I wouldn't actually bet it at

345
00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:22,600
Speaker 1: eight and a half. I think the line will drop

346
00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:25,040
Speaker 1: a little bit more, but you know, for the purposes

347
00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:27,200
Speaker 1: of this, I'm taking it at eight and a half.

348
00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:29,600
Speaker 1: It doesn't seem as if I'm quite as high on

349
00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:31,920
Speaker 1: the Eagles offense as you are, Like, I think they

350
00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:35,600
Speaker 1: will score a respectable number of points, but not enough

351
00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:37,320
Speaker 1: to challenge the Saints.

352
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Speaker 4: Really, I mean, I think like so the Eagles offense.

353
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Speaker 4: The reason I have a lot of confidence in them

354
00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:44,280
Speaker 4: is Number one Carson Wentz was playing at an MVP

355
00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:47,160
Speaker 4: level last year, and he's, like I said, he had

356
00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:51,000
Speaker 4: this really bad interception against Dallas, But besides that, you know, he's.

357
00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:52,520
Speaker 2: Still playing at a really high level.

358
00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:53,880
Speaker 4: I mean, if you look at his numbers, you know,

359
00:16:53,920 --> 00:16:55,480
Speaker 4: he put up three to sixty against Dallas.

360
00:16:55,760 --> 00:16:57,440
Speaker 2: A lot of that was on the final.

361
00:16:57,240 --> 00:16:59,720
Speaker 4: Play, but you still got around three hundred even without that.

362
00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:01,840
Speaker 4: I think he's playing at a high level. I think

363
00:17:01,880 --> 00:17:04,480
Speaker 4: Golden Tate just adding him adds a whole another element

364
00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:07,000
Speaker 4: where Golden Tate's returning punts for this team.

365
00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:09,400
Speaker 2: He's another weapon to line up in the spot.

366
00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:12,679
Speaker 4: We saw Nelson Agalar get deep last week, which was

367
00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:14,520
Speaker 4: like a staple of their offense last year that they

368
00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:17,120
Speaker 4: were kind of lacking this year. We constantly make fun

369
00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:19,840
Speaker 4: at Agalar for his like nine target thirty one yard games.

370
00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:22,879
Speaker 4: So I think that that, like having Tate is another

371
00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:25,000
Speaker 4: option inside, kind of frees him up because they were

372
00:17:25,080 --> 00:17:27,200
Speaker 4: using they felt like they had to use Jordan Matthews

373
00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:29,800
Speaker 4: more on the outside for whatever reason. I'm guessing it

374
00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:31,760
Speaker 4: had something to do with It's just how they felt

375
00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:35,320
Speaker 4: their three guys worked best together without Mike Wallace or whatnot.

376
00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:38,239
Speaker 4: But I think the Saints defense is just one that

377
00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:40,399
Speaker 4: you know, it's not imposing at all, and so like,

378
00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:42,159
Speaker 4: I wouldn't be surprised if the Eagles won this game,

379
00:17:42,200 --> 00:17:45,320
Speaker 4: for example, Like this is the classic, Yeah, this is

380
00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:48,680
Speaker 4: the classic game where the public's all over the Saints.

381
00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:51,040
Speaker 4: They're like on their way to the super Bowl. They're

382
00:17:51,080 --> 00:17:53,480
Speaker 4: going to be essentially better than either their chiefs or rams.

383
00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:56,760
Speaker 4: After one of them loses on Sunday and the Eagles

384
00:17:56,800 --> 00:17:59,880
Speaker 4: lost the National TV to Dallas and it's like everyone's

385
00:17:59,880 --> 00:18:01,720
Speaker 4: down on Eagle's Winter reality, I think this is still

386
00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:04,399
Speaker 4: a pretty good tea. Like, my opinion on the Eagles

387
00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:07,400
Speaker 4: hasn't changed since last week, and that was even after

388
00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:09,160
Speaker 4: rewatching the Cowboys games.

389
00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:10,639
Speaker 2: So I like the Eagles.

390
00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:13,480
Speaker 4: I would bet them, and I'm very well made because

391
00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:15,520
Speaker 4: the line seems to keep going in the other direction.

392
00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:18,800
Speaker 1: Yeah interesting, I mean, you could be right. The one

393
00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:22,440
Speaker 1: thing is that I don't trust the Eagles offensive line

394
00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:23,800
Speaker 1: as much as you do. I don't think it's as

395
00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:26,199
Speaker 1: good as it was last year. So I think that

396
00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:29,440
Speaker 1: is that's something that's significant the next game. This is

397
00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:30,800
Speaker 1: a good game. Well, I mean, I don't know if

398
00:18:30,800 --> 00:18:32,040
Speaker 1: it's going to be a good game, but it's an

399
00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:35,160
Speaker 1: intriguing game. The six and two Steelers at the three

400
00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:38,280
Speaker 1: and six Jags. Steelers favorite on the road by five

401
00:18:38,320 --> 00:18:40,560
Speaker 1: and a half points a forty seven point over under.

402
00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:42,680
Speaker 1: The spread is down from six, the total is down

403
00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:45,520
Speaker 1: from forty seven and a half. The Steelers have won

404
00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:49,920
Speaker 1: five straight after starting one two and one. The Jags

405
00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:52,439
Speaker 1: have lost five straight, and of course, this is a

406
00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:56,040
Speaker 1: rematch of last year's classic Divisional round game that the

407
00:18:56,160 --> 00:18:59,480
Speaker 1: Jags won forty five to forty two. What are your thoughts?

408
00:19:00,320 --> 00:19:02,280
Speaker 4: So I'll start off by talking about the spread because

409
00:19:02,280 --> 00:19:03,840
Speaker 4: I'm going to actually make a pick on the over under,

410
00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:05,879
Speaker 4: but I think the spread is worth talking about. So

411
00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:09,240
Speaker 4: this is another kind of classic spot where I think

412
00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:12,000
Speaker 4: the public has overreacted a little bit. First of all,

413
00:19:12,080 --> 00:19:15,320
Speaker 4: the Steelers, we know they smash at home, so they

414
00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:17,399
Speaker 4: kind of went on national TV against the Panthers and

415
00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:20,240
Speaker 4: what everyone thought would be a good game a close game.

416
00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:23,720
Speaker 4: The spread was within a touchdown and the Steelers dominated.

417
00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:26,720
Speaker 4: They put up over fifty points. But home favorites on

418
00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:29,040
Speaker 4: Thursday Night Football are covering at about a sixty two

419
00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:31,080
Speaker 4: percent rate going all the way back to two thousand

420
00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:34,080
Speaker 4: and three, which I found out using bet Lab software.

421
00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:36,240
Speaker 4: So it's tough to go on the road and play

422
00:19:36,240 --> 00:19:38,080
Speaker 4: a good team on a short week, and so the

423
00:19:38,080 --> 00:19:41,399
Speaker 4: Steeers took advantage of that. Now they're going on the

424
00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:44,000
Speaker 4: road and they're favored by this like five what is

425
00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:46,360
Speaker 4: it five and five and a half right now? Yeah,

426
00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:48,399
Speaker 4: I think that number is just I just think that

427
00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:50,439
Speaker 4: number is a little bit too high. I know the

428
00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:52,480
Speaker 4: Jags have lost a lot of games, but you know,

429
00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:54,600
Speaker 4: with four Nette back, that defense is still playing, the

430
00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:57,080
Speaker 4: pass defense is still playing well aj Buye is back.

431
00:19:57,240 --> 00:20:00,119
Speaker 4: These are like the prime spots for the Steelers to

432
00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:03,280
Speaker 4: kind of underperform. So I don't I don't trust some

433
00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:06,400
Speaker 4: really I would say I would say to win much

434
00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:08,880
Speaker 4: less cover. But at the same time, like I don't

435
00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:11,760
Speaker 4: like how the Jaguars match up to them on offense,

436
00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:13,919
Speaker 4: because over the last five weeks so the Steelers have

437
00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:15,679
Speaker 4: won five straight, the Jags have lost five straight. So

438
00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:18,760
Speaker 4: over those five games, like, the Steelers are number one

439
00:20:18,760 --> 00:20:20,440
Speaker 4: on defense and yards per player loud.

440
00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:23,040
Speaker 2: They're number one in net yards per pass allowed.

441
00:20:23,359 --> 00:20:27,120
Speaker 4: They're top six in yards per carry aloud about three

442
00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:30,720
Speaker 4: point eight. So like the Jags have been inefficient even

443
00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:34,080
Speaker 4: with Fournette back, him and Carlos Hyde combined to averaging

444
00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:36,320
Speaker 4: under three yards per carry. They're at two point six

445
00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:38,480
Speaker 4: combined with the Jags so like their run game, even

446
00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:41,200
Speaker 4: though it's like this power run game and it's better

447
00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:44,480
Speaker 4: than when it's just TJ. Yelden, it's still not very efficient.

448
00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:47,480
Speaker 4: They're going against a team that doesn't allow much efficiency,

449
00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:49,480
Speaker 4: and then on the other side, you have an offense

450
00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:52,280
Speaker 4: that's going against the one of the top pass defenses

451
00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:54,680
Speaker 4: in the league statistically. So I'm taking the under in

452
00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:57,600
Speaker 4: this game for those reasons. Over over kind of touching

453
00:20:57,640 --> 00:20:59,160
Speaker 4: the spread because I just I don't know, I don't

454
00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:01,800
Speaker 4: really feel going either way with that spread.

455
00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:06,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, you're right, You're yeah. I mean, if

456
00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:09,119
Speaker 1: I were vetting the over or the under on this,

457
00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:11,600
Speaker 1: I would clearly take the under. And I talked about

458
00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:15,800
Speaker 1: this in the Quarterback breakdown. Yes, but yeah, even with

459
00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:20,520
Speaker 1: all pros Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell and maybe like

460
00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:24,320
Speaker 1: even because of them on the road, the Steelers are

461
00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:28,639
Speaker 1: the worst team in over under record. That's ten and

462
00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:32,359
Speaker 1: twenty six since twenty fourteen, and I think in part

463
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:35,359
Speaker 1: it's just because they are so dynamic at home, you know,

464
00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:39,600
Speaker 1: bookmakers or the public or whatever. They just overvalue the

465
00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:43,280
Speaker 1: ability of that team to put up points on the road.

466
00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:46,240
Speaker 1: So yeah, I think the under is the better side

467
00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:50,800
Speaker 1: in this, especially because they are facing a very good defense. Stupidly,

468
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:53,640
Speaker 1: I'm taking Pitt minus five and a half. I'm laying

469
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:56,199
Speaker 1: the points here, and you are totally right and that

470
00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:59,240
Speaker 1: on the Action Network, I'm just being a donkey on

471
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:02,560
Speaker 1: the Action Net where we have an article that specifically

472
00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:06,760
Speaker 1: looks at our power rankings through the week eleven context,

473
00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:10,400
Speaker 1: and the title of the article is the Steelers are

474
00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:14,439
Speaker 1: the most overvalued team this week. Right, So, like, I

475
00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:17,320
Speaker 1: am clearly on the wrong side of this. I don't care.

476
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 1: I'm not siding with Blake Portals in this. I should

477
00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:23,480
Speaker 1: be smart and take the under. But I think this

478
00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:26,720
Speaker 1: is a game where, you know, like road splits be damned,

479
00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:31,200
Speaker 1: the Steelers like just absolutely smash the Jags and this

480
00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:33,160
Speaker 1: is the end of the Blake Portles era.

481
00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:36,720
Speaker 4: I mean, I could tell you know, it's hilarious and

482
00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:39,560
Speaker 4: this this is exactly why I don't want to bet

483
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 4: the spread in this game, is because I could see

484
00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:44,840
Speaker 4: exactly what you're talking about. But I could also see

485
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:46,520
Speaker 4: the Jaguars winning this game thirty seven.

486
00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:50,399
Speaker 1: Oh it could. Yeah, there's one of those like Blake

487
00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:54,360
Speaker 1: boards four hundred yards touchdowns, like.

488
00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:57,200
Speaker 4: The defense like every and this is not just a

489
00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 4: Steers like I should like. It just seems to happen

490
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 4: with the Steeers more and then not NFL teams in general,

491
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:04,320
Speaker 4: Like there's usually just a game or two at least

492
00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:06,720
Speaker 4: a year where you go on the road and your

493
00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:08,080
Speaker 4: defense just does not show.

494
00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:10,120
Speaker 2: And we've seen this happen to the Steers before.

495
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:11,880
Speaker 4: I think it was last year against the Bears where

496
00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:14,120
Speaker 4: the Bears just ran for like two hundred yards on them,

497
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:16,760
Speaker 4: just banged them all over the places. Like sometimes a

498
00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:19,800
Speaker 4: physical team, a team like the Jags with Fournette and Hyde.

499
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:22,160
Speaker 2: I mean, they're not efficient, but I think if they can.

500
00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:24,040
Speaker 4: Get real physical with the Steeers on the road and

501
00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:26,240
Speaker 4: at these early starts, I could see anything happening.

502
00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:28,600
Speaker 2: So but I feel you it's a slippery salt with

503
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:31,679
Speaker 2: Blake Bordos Keeland Coles has been banished, he's been vanquished

504
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 2: to the bench.

505
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:35,320
Speaker 4: DJ Chark is starting over him now, so you know,

506
00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:37,040
Speaker 4: a lot of a lot of things going on with

507
00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:38,280
Speaker 4: that offense all right.

508
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 1: Final game here the six and three Texans at these

509
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:44,200
Speaker 1: six and three Redskins. Texans favored by three a forty

510
00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:46,199
Speaker 1: two and a half point over under. The total is

511
00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:49,000
Speaker 1: down for forty three. The Texans have won six straight

512
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:51,040
Speaker 1: in are coming off of by The Redskins have won

513
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:53,680
Speaker 1: four or five, but they've scored more than twenty four

514
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:56,920
Speaker 1: points just once this season. Chris, what are you doing

515
00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 1: with this game? Oh?

516
00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:02,120
Speaker 2: I've been yston man. I like so the Redskins.

517
00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:05,280
Speaker 4: They beat the Buccaneers sixteen to three last week, and

518
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:07,520
Speaker 4: I think a lot of people were probably surprised. Number

519
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:09,720
Speaker 4: one that the game the total was so low. Number

520
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:12,000
Speaker 4: two that the Redskins won by so many points. We

521
00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:14,600
Speaker 4: watched that game and just have never seen a luckier

522
00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 4: team to win by that many points in a game.

523
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:19,399
Speaker 4: So they come out in this game, they win at

524
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:22,400
Speaker 4: sixteen to three. They give up over four hundred yards

525
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:25,360
Speaker 4: passing to Ryan Fitzpatrick again. He runs for thirty five

526
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:29,240
Speaker 4: more Peyton Barber like looks like Marshawn Lynch. He runs

527
00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:32,240
Speaker 4: for a very efficient thirteen for sixty one. Alex Smith

528
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 4: goes twenty seven attempts for one hundred and seventy eight

529
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:38,240
Speaker 4: yards against the weeds worst pass defense under seven yards

530
00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:42,160
Speaker 4: in attempt and Tampa Bay happens to turn the ball

531
00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:47,159
Speaker 4: over four times and miss two field goals and somehow Washington.

532
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:48,760
Speaker 2: Gets this victory. I mean, I think this, like they

533
00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:49,639
Speaker 2: have no O line.

534
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:52,360
Speaker 4: I just I can't bet on Washington. Like Houston still

535
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:55,080
Speaker 4: has DeShawn Watson. They don't have Will Fuller, but they

536
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:58,199
Speaker 4: have Damarius Thomas. Jordan Thomas, their rookie tight end is

537
00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:02,280
Speaker 4: developing into a good red zone weapon for Watson. He

538
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:04,560
Speaker 4: has three touchdowns, so that's kind of helping replace some

539
00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:07,959
Speaker 4: of that kind of outlining touchdown production from Will Fuller.

540
00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:11,920
Speaker 4: And I just think that the Texans are a better team.

541
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:13,760
Speaker 4: And also there are some trends kind of back in

542
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:16,720
Speaker 4: this one. So road favorites after a by fifty eight,

543
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:19,879
Speaker 4: twenty six and two since two thousand and three. That

544
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:22,399
Speaker 4: is that's a sixty nine percent cover rate against the

545
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:25,720
Speaker 4: spread for going back the fifteen years. So that's that's

546
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:27,639
Speaker 4: a pretty that's I like that one. So I'm going

547
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 4: I'm going to use I'm like, I have no trust

548
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:31,159
Speaker 4: in the Redskins.

549
00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:34,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I'm taking the Redskins and no faith in

550
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 1: the of course, you know how there are and maybe

551
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:40,879
Speaker 1: this is how you feel like about the Titans, maybe

552
00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:43,040
Speaker 1: or how some people feel about the Titans, but like

553
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:46,119
Speaker 1: they are just these teams each year and maybe like

554
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:48,600
Speaker 1: the Titans last year, are this this type of team

555
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:52,680
Speaker 1: that have like no business winning games but keep on

556
00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:58,200
Speaker 1: winning games through like some combination of like good enough defense,

557
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:02,439
Speaker 1: ball control, offen quarterback who doesn't turn the ball over,

558
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:05,679
Speaker 1: and like that's what they are. Smith is not a

559
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 1: good quarterback. I think he's one of the worst quarterbacks

560
00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 1: in the league, but he doesn't turn the ball over.

561
00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:14,119
Speaker 1: Their offensive line is significantly injured, which definitely gives me

562
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 1: cause for concern. But you know they're going to run

563
00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 1: the ball. And I know this sounds weird, but I

564
00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:24,800
Speaker 1: don't have much faith in I'm gonna say something that

565
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:27,360
Speaker 1: sounds totally stupid, but I don't have like a ton

566
00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:30,679
Speaker 1: of faith in the Texans offense without will Fuller, Like

567
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:35,720
Speaker 1: I don't think to Marrius Thomas is like an efficient receiver,

568
00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 1: Like I think the more they target him, the worse

569
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:41,280
Speaker 1: that is for their team. Okay, you know what I mean.

570
00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:45,240
Speaker 4: I mean that's fair, but let's remember that Deshaun Watson

571
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:48,399
Speaker 4: threw three balls to Thomas in the first quarter last week,

572
00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:50,840
Speaker 4: and I don't think he looked at him ever like since, Like,

573
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:53,200
Speaker 4: I think he realized this pretty quickly because I don't

574
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:55,720
Speaker 4: think the Harry's caught another ball after the first quarter.

575
00:26:55,800 --> 00:27:00,239
Speaker 4: But like, I just think the Redskins, they are a

576
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:03,919
Speaker 4: team that's built, like you said, to win by playing

577
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:07,640
Speaker 4: ball control and running the football. That is all well

578
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:11,159
Speaker 4: and good, except you are facing the team that is

579
00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 4: ranked number one in run defense DVOA in the Houston Texans.

580
00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:19,639
Speaker 4: You're facing a team that has a dynamic quarterback and

581
00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:22,639
Speaker 4: a top two or three receiver in this league that

582
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:25,160
Speaker 4: can put up points in a hurry, like at one point.

583
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:27,280
Speaker 4: I think they had a graphic in last week's game

584
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:30,200
Speaker 4: two weeks ago when the Broncos played the Texans that

585
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:33,359
Speaker 4: said Deshaun Watson has thrown a touchdown pass on like

586
00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:36,320
Speaker 4: seven of his last eighteen attempts. Like, if the Texans

587
00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 4: get any type of wead in this game, I have

588
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:43,280
Speaker 4: zero confidence that Washington can mount a comeback, especially after

589
00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:45,600
Speaker 4: seeing them score sixteen.

590
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:46,960
Speaker 2: Point fourteen points.

591
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:51,760
Speaker 4: At home against the Falcons and then sixteen points against

592
00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 4: the Tampa bay Bucks. Like seeing that is more damning

593
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:58,320
Speaker 4: than the fact that they actually went one and one

594
00:27:58,600 --> 00:27:59,959
Speaker 4: against those two teams.

595
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:02,200
Speaker 2: Just like I don't know, like I can't do.

596
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:04,520
Speaker 4: It, Like I feel confident that used to win this game,

597
00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:06,639
Speaker 4: Like I would take the money line, you know, like

598
00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 4: maybe they don't win by three.

599
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:09,040
Speaker 2: Maybe it's one of those things.

600
00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:11,000
Speaker 4: But like if Washington wins this game, I'm gonna be

601
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:13,199
Speaker 4: surprised and I'm gonna be down another bet to you.

602
00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:17,000
Speaker 4: But yeah, I feel good about Houston in this spot.

603
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 4: I just I just feel like they can't catch up.

604
00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:22,760
Speaker 1: So two things. One, you're forgetting that run defense doesn't matter.

605
00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:24,760
Speaker 2: It doesn't. It doesn't.

606
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 4: But when you said it yourself, when you have a

607
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:28,760
Speaker 4: team like Washington, it matters.

608
00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:29,359
Speaker 2: It matters a little more.

609
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 4: And by the way, Washington is number twenty eight and

610
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:33,800
Speaker 4: run defense themselves. So this game is one of those

611
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 4: kind of like lower scoring games. It's still favorites Houston.

612
00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, second wall, And this is to your point, Washington

613
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:43,360
Speaker 1: has not had a lead change in any of their

614
00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 1: games this year, so random. But yeah, like for the

615
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 1: first ten weeks of the season, if they've gotten behind,

616
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:53,120
Speaker 1: they've stayed behind to that point. If they've gotten ahead,

617
00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:55,080
Speaker 1: they've stayed ahead. I don't know if I put any

618
00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 1: like predictiveness onto that fact or not, Like, in fact,

619
00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 1: I don't. I think that's just sort of like a

620
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 1: random type of thing. I think if they get behind,

621
00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 1: the Texans easily could come back. But I'm taking the

622
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 1: plus three point the team that's at home playing a

623
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:14,240
Speaker 1: team that I think is not actually all that good.

624
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:16,560
Speaker 1: Like I don't, I don't think Houston is all that good.

625
00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 4: This is a surprising take to me, just because I

626
00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:21,640
Speaker 4: feel like number one Houston as far as I know,

627
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:24,520
Speaker 4: I think we all were on Houston's win total right

628
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:27,200
Speaker 4: like to before the year, like they were at like yeah,

629
00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:29,760
Speaker 4: so like I thought Houston, I thought, we did expect

630
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:31,320
Speaker 4: Houston to be pretty good and they just kind of

631
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:34,480
Speaker 4: had some hiccups early on. But in reality, they lost

632
00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:36,680
Speaker 4: a lot of one score games. I do get like

633
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 4: they've played in a lot of one score games. So

634
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:40,840
Speaker 4: maybe they aren't this good, but maybe they maybe they

635
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:43,680
Speaker 4: aren't anywhere near as bad as we initially thought either,

636
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:47,000
Speaker 4: Like maybe they're closer to being dominant than we really think.

637
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 2: I mean, like Deshaun Watson, he's the real view.

638
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:53,320
Speaker 4: You have a defense with Clowney what like maybe this

639
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:56,240
Speaker 4: team should be nine to zero like that, because that's

640
00:29:56,280 --> 00:29:58,840
Speaker 4: really what we when you look at this team's schedule.

641
00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:01,280
Speaker 4: Like I'm just saying, like Houston is not a team

642
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:04,080
Speaker 4: that like I don't I don't have anything. I don't

643
00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:06,560
Speaker 4: really have anything bad to say I would say about Houston.

644
00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:08,360
Speaker 4: I mean I feel really good about the Texans, like

645
00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:10,760
Speaker 4: not only in this game, but in general moving forward.

646
00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 4: Like I feel like if there's a team to kind

647
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:15,800
Speaker 4: of come out of nowhere and like surprise people, upset

648
00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 4: some people, and maybe end up in the AFC Championship

649
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:20,560
Speaker 4: like the Jaguars did last year, my money would be

650
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 4: on the Texans.

651
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:25,600
Speaker 1: Okay, that's this is actually really interesting. So it seems

652
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:28,840
Speaker 1: as if you feel fairly confident they will win the division.

653
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 1: I mean yeah, yeah, yeah, So like you are viewing

654
00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:35,200
Speaker 1: them as a playoff team as a division winning team,

655
00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 1: and I'm viewing them as a team that will not

656
00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:40,480
Speaker 1: win the division. That's kind of like the difference I

657
00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 1: think between Howard viewing. So like I'm thinking, this is

658
00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:44,960
Speaker 1: not a team that's going to win the division.

659
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 4: So what Just like what I guess my question is, is

660
00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:52,400
Speaker 4: like what change for you since the preseason besides the

661
00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 4: Fuller injury or is it really adjust the impact of

662
00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 4: the Fuller injury.

663
00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:58,160
Speaker 1: Part of it is the Fuller injury, and part of

664
00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:02,680
Speaker 1: it is how good Luck has looked within his offense

665
00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:06,800
Speaker 1: and how that offense with the Colts continues to improve

666
00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:07,400
Speaker 1: each week.

667
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:09,960
Speaker 4: Wouldn't you argue that, you know, being like the kind

668
00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 4: of like stat heads heavy guys that we are, like

669
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 4: we know that the coach offense and I love when

670
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:17,520
Speaker 4: Andrew loves doing this here, but like, wouldn't you argue

671
00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:19,480
Speaker 4: that we know the coach offense is more likely to

672
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:21,880
Speaker 4: regress because they're the ones with the low yard per attempt,

673
00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:23,479
Speaker 4: Like they're the ones in the bottom of the league

674
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:25,640
Speaker 4: in yard per attempt kind of living off these like

675
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:27,040
Speaker 4: improbable touch I mean.

676
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:30,080
Speaker 2: Eric Ebron has had three touchdowns in.

677
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:33,120
Speaker 4: The first half last week and the Colts scored twenty

678
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:35,480
Speaker 4: nine points in the game. Like like like you know,

679
00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 4: like this this team is like they're on a slippery slope.

680
00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 2: Like for example, we just talked like I just thought.

681
00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:43,720
Speaker 4: We wouldn't be surprised if Tennessee won this game, Like

682
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:45,640
Speaker 4: I think the value is on the Coats had to

683
00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:48,880
Speaker 4: pick them, but Tennessee could easily win this game in Indianapols. Like,

684
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:51,360
Speaker 4: I don't know, this is surprising to me. I just

685
00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:54,240
Speaker 4: feel like the you could argue, I guess, like, okay.

686
00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:55,280
Speaker 2: Team with the better quarterback.

687
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:57,400
Speaker 4: But I mean, like Deshaun Watson is so good that

688
00:31:57,480 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 4: like it's not like he's like a queer, Oh my god,

689
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:01,760
Speaker 4: in a whole other league than Andrew Lucks. Like Andrew

690
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:03,760
Speaker 4: Luck is the better quarterback, he is the track record,

691
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:07,240
Speaker 4: but Watson is the more efficient quarterback and their their

692
00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:09,880
Speaker 4: defense is much better, so that that he just gives

693
00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 4: them an edge.

694
00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:13,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's fair. I mean for part, I mean, we

695
00:32:13,040 --> 00:32:15,400
Speaker 1: are so far filled from talking about just this game.

696
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:17,720
Speaker 1: But the reason why I give the Colts the edge,

697
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:20,840
Speaker 1: I think their defense is improving, like relative to what

698
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 1: it was last year. Their offense, Like I much prefer

699
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 1: Frank Reich as the coach and bay caller to the guy.

700
00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 2: That is fair.

701
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:35,760
Speaker 1: That's what I'm fair close to losing his giant in

702
00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:36,680
Speaker 1: the middle of the season.

703
00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:38,640
Speaker 2: You're talking about Bill, You're talking about Bill Brian.

704
00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:41,240
Speaker 4: But I mean Bill also had this team like nine

705
00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:43,200
Speaker 4: and seven in every year, but the but the year

706
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:45,280
Speaker 4: where like and you just had like the armageddon of

707
00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 4: injury of you know, like seasons like I don't like

708
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:50,400
Speaker 4: I mean, I don't love Bill O'Brien, but I can't

709
00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:52,120
Speaker 4: like knock the guy like I think, didn't you go

710
00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:53,800
Speaker 4: nine and seven with Rock Oswiler?

711
00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:56,160
Speaker 1: Well yeah, but I can't.

712
00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:01,760
Speaker 2: I mean, there's Van Joseph here, he did not Bill O'Brien.

713
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 1: Well yeah, okay, all right, we have the two minute

714
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 1: drill next, right after we check with John Ewing for

715
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 1: some trend based sports betting insights.

716
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 5: Good data is always in fashion. Here's John Ewing with

717
00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:17,360
Speaker 5: trend of the week.

718
00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:21,880
Speaker 3: Oakland is bad and betters know it. The Raiders are

719
00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:24,520
Speaker 3: two and seven against the spread in twenty eighteen, which

720
00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:27,160
Speaker 3: helps explain why nearly seventy percent of spread tickets are

721
00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 3: on the Cardinals, who are five to three and one

722
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:31,760
Speaker 3: against the spread. But something the public doesn't know. Bad

723
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 3: against the spread teams have been profitable against good against

724
00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:37,360
Speaker 3: the spread teams Since two thousand and three, teams that

725
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:39,400
Speaker 3: have covered the spread and thirty percent or less of

726
00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:41,720
Speaker 3: their games, like the Raiders, have gone two hundred and

727
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:44,240
Speaker 3: forty four and one hundred and eighty seven. That's a

728
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 3: fifty seven percent win rate against the spread when playing

729
00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 3: an opponent that has won sixty percent or more of

730
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:52,400
Speaker 3: their games against the spread, like the Cardinals. Not only

731
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 3: does history suggest Oakland is undervalue, but the Action Network

732
00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 3: NFL simulations has Arizona winning Sunday's matchup on average by

733
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:02,080
Speaker 3: two point one points. With the current line at Cardinals

734
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 3: minus five, there is at least a field goal of

735
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:05,520
Speaker 3: value on the Raiders.

736
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:07,360
Speaker 1: All right, That was John Ewing. Be sure to check

737
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 1: out his sports betting articles each week at the Action Network.

738
00:34:10,640 --> 00:34:13,239
Speaker 1: Chris the two minute drill, which is definitely not a

739
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:16,439
Speaker 1: two minute drill. We're going to run through all the

740
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:19,799
Speaker 1: remaining non primetime games and two minutes or as close

741
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:22,279
Speaker 1: as we can get to it. Let's go the six

742
00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 1: and three Panthers at the three and six Lions. Panthers

743
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,320
Speaker 1: favored by four and a half a forty nine point

744
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:29,520
Speaker 1: five over under. The Panthers are coming off a Thursday

745
00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:32,400
Speaker 1: nine football loss. The Lions have lost three straight. Sixty

746
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:34,400
Speaker 1: five percent of the tickets, but ninety six percent of

747
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:35,560
Speaker 1: the money is on the under.

748
00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:40,239
Speaker 4: Ninety six percent of the money might be only under because.

749
00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:43,120
Speaker 2: In weeks one through eight, Matthew Stafford held the ball.

750
00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:44,880
Speaker 4: More than two and a half seconds in the pocket

751
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 4: on forty six percent of his dropbacks. That was the

752
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:49,479
Speaker 4: that's twenty seventh in the week. That means he's getting

753
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 4: the ball out really quickly. He only took thirteen sacks

754
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:55,840
Speaker 4: in those first seven games. Since the Lions traded his

755
00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:59,120
Speaker 4: number one receiver, Golden Tate, who he targeted twenty seven

756
00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:02,239
Speaker 4: percent of the time. Staffords held the ball for two

757
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:05,560
Speaker 4: point five seconds or more on sixty three percent of

758
00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:07,680
Speaker 4: his drop back, So that's from forty six to sixty

759
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:09,280
Speaker 4: three percent over these last two games.

760
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:11,799
Speaker 2: That is the second highest rate of holding the ball

761
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:13,320
Speaker 2: for that long in the league.

762
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:18,680
Speaker 4: And he's taken sixteen sacks in those last two games

763
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:21,440
Speaker 4: a well, so more sacks in the last two games

764
00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:24,759
Speaker 4: without Golden Tate they had in the first eight with

765
00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:25,839
Speaker 4: Golden Tate.

766
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 2: This line is kind of kind of ugly.

767
00:35:28,160 --> 00:35:31,279
Speaker 4: It's Carolina four and a half, but that under and

768
00:35:31,480 --> 00:35:34,319
Speaker 4: the Carolina defense, special teams and fantasy and dfs are

769
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:35,360
Speaker 4: definitely in play.

770
00:35:35,719 --> 00:35:38,240
Speaker 1: The three and six Broncos at the seven and two Chargers.

771
00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:40,440
Speaker 1: Chargers favored by seven a forty six and a half

772
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:43,160
Speaker 1: point over under. This is the first of two divisional

773
00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:45,880
Speaker 1: games against each other this year. The Broncos have lost

774
00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:48,520
Speaker 1: six of their last seven. The Chargers have won six

775
00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:49,480
Speaker 1: games in a row.

776
00:35:49,680 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 2: So I'm not even gonna do advanced Joseph stat today.

777
00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:52,719
Speaker 2: I think we all know.

778
00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 4: That he's not profitable tibet on, But we gotta look

779
00:35:57,040 --> 00:35:58,880
Speaker 4: at the Chargers snaps coming out of the by. So

780
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:01,600
Speaker 4: in seven games before the versus, they've had two games

781
00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:05,279
Speaker 4: after Tyro Williams went from seventy six percent pre buy

782
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:08,560
Speaker 4: to eighty six percent post by. Mike Williams went from

783
00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:11,759
Speaker 4: sixty five percent before the bye to only thirty eight

784
00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:15,560
Speaker 4: percent snap rate after the bye. Melvin Gordon seventy percent

785
00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:19,040
Speaker 4: snap rate before the bye, eighty four percent after the bye,

786
00:36:19,120 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 4: Austin Eckler thirty four percent, not including the one game

787
00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:26,000
Speaker 4: Melvin Gordon myths where it obviously went up. He's down

788
00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:28,319
Speaker 4: from thirty four to twenty seven percent after the buy,

789
00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:31,759
Speaker 4: and then Virgil Green the tight end. He's went from

790
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:34,800
Speaker 4: sixty nine percent before the bye to eighty four percent

791
00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:38,080
Speaker 4: after the bye, and while Antonio Gates went from thirty

792
00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:40,880
Speaker 4: three percent before the buy down to twenty percent after

793
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 4: the buy.

794
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:44,160
Speaker 2: So kind of a few little subtle.

795
00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:46,600
Speaker 4: Shifts in terms of who the Chargers are playing on

796
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:49,200
Speaker 4: the field, that they're putting their guys that they want

797
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 4: out there for a higher rated snaps and the interesting

798
00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:54,200
Speaker 4: to note that the Chargers are actually tied with the

799
00:36:54,280 --> 00:36:56,960
Speaker 4: Chiefs and Rams for the most yards per play in

800
00:36:56,960 --> 00:36:58,839
Speaker 4: the league on offense six point nine.

801
00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:01,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, that is interesting. Those are the only two teams

802
00:37:01,080 --> 00:37:02,200
Speaker 1: they've lost games too.

803
00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:04,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that's another sleeping giant.

804
00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 1: Yeah. The one and eight Raiders at the two and

805
00:37:06,719 --> 00:37:09,480
Speaker 1: seven Cardinals Cardinals favored by five and a half, a

806
00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:12,600
Speaker 1: forty point five over under man maybe the two worst

807
00:37:12,600 --> 00:37:14,000
Speaker 1: teams in the league facing each.

808
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:17,719
Speaker 4: Other, absolutely and u in the Cardinals Raiders betting guide

809
00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:19,959
Speaker 4: on the action. Now, there's a really cool some really

810
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:22,440
Speaker 4: cool trends about the over under in this game.

811
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:24,400
Speaker 2: But I'll let you guys check that out for yourself.

812
00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:28,239
Speaker 4: My nugget for y'all is Ricky Sales Jones is the

813
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:31,120
Speaker 4: number six tight end in the league in air yards,

814
00:37:31,200 --> 00:37:32,880
Speaker 4: Oakland dead last in.

815
00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:35,440
Speaker 2: DVOA against tight ends.

816
00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:39,799
Speaker 4: Rsj is only twenty nine hundred on DraftKings, fifty two

817
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:42,640
Speaker 4: hundred on fan Duel And I don't know how much

818
00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 4: of these mysterious player pop dollars that Friedman is putting

819
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:48,479
Speaker 4: on the over on his yardage prop.

820
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:50,120
Speaker 2: But I'm guessing you're going to be on it.

821
00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:53,160
Speaker 1: Oh most certainly. Okay, the three and six Buccaneers that

822
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:55,440
Speaker 1: the two and seven Giants Giants favored by one and

823
00:37:55,440 --> 00:37:58,400
Speaker 1: a half fifty two point over under. I believe that

824
00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:00,719
Speaker 1: game opened as a pick them. Both teams have great

825
00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:04,600
Speaker 1: pass catching skill possession players, but volatile quarterback situations. The

826
00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:06,880
Speaker 1: Bucks have lost six to their last seven. The Giants

827
00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:08,600
Speaker 1: have lost five of their last six.

828
00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:10,640
Speaker 4: First of all, this is a game I feel like

829
00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:12,280
Speaker 4: you gotta bet on the Bucks in this spot.

830
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:13,840
Speaker 2: The Bucks have thrown.

831
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:17,359
Speaker 4: For four hundred or more yards in five of their

832
00:38:17,440 --> 00:38:17,960
Speaker 4: nine game.

833
00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:20,640
Speaker 2: Sometimes it's been just Fryan Fitzpatrick.

834
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:23,319
Speaker 4: A couple of times him and Winston have combined for

835
00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:25,239
Speaker 4: four hundred and one of the games, they've combined for

836
00:38:25,239 --> 00:38:27,400
Speaker 4: four hundred plus. In a sixth game, they threw for

837
00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 4: three ninety five. In a seventh game, they threw for

838
00:38:30,239 --> 00:38:33,759
Speaker 4: three to sixty five. Their lowest yardage output passing was

839
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:37,200
Speaker 4: two forty three, and in that game Fitzpatrick had four

840
00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:38,880
Speaker 4: passing touchdowns.

841
00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:41,440
Speaker 2: So like you got to just hot right back.

842
00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:45,399
Speaker 1: On this Bucks offense, one question not to you know,

843
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:48,239
Speaker 1: slow this process down, but I'm going to they have

844
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:51,560
Speaker 1: changed their play callers. How do you take that into

845
00:38:51,680 --> 00:38:53,640
Speaker 1: account when looking at the Bucks this week?

846
00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:56,720
Speaker 4: I think that it's going to be more of the same.

847
00:38:57,239 --> 00:38:59,880
Speaker 4: I could see them perhaps giving the run game of

848
00:38:59,840 --> 00:39:02,440
Speaker 4: a few more tries, just because Peyton Barbara did look

849
00:39:02,480 --> 00:39:05,040
Speaker 4: really good against Washington. But at the end of the day,

850
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:07,000
Speaker 4: it's just a talented offense and that's just kind of

851
00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:08,840
Speaker 4: the way their offense works. It's like it's a pretty

852
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:12,080
Speaker 4: vertical offense and then they have an efficient underneath guy

853
00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:15,120
Speaker 4: in Adam Humphrey. So I mean, a disgiant defense does

854
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:17,880
Speaker 4: not scaring me. So yeah, I would expect them to rebound. Like,

855
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:20,239
Speaker 4: let's remember they put up all these yards and last

856
00:39:20,280 --> 00:39:22,279
Speaker 4: week they just kind of have the most ridiculous look

857
00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:23,000
Speaker 4: go against them.

858
00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:25,560
Speaker 1: So all right, last one here the five and four

859
00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:28,359
Speaker 1: Bengals the four and five Ravens. No lines have been

860
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 1: posted yet for this game. Aj Green it seems as

861
00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 1: if he will certainly be out. Quarterback Joe Flacco is

862
00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:36,760
Speaker 1: uncertain with a hip injury. It's also unclear if Lamar

863
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:39,680
Speaker 1: Jackson will start a quarterback or if Robert Griffin third

864
00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:43,240
Speaker 1: will start a quarterback. So a lot is unknown here, right.

865
00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:44,280
Speaker 2: So this is interesting.

866
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:47,279
Speaker 4: We only have a small sample six games with Joe

867
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:50,799
Speaker 4: Flacco not being under center for Baltimore, but Baltimore has

868
00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:53,279
Speaker 4: been a bit undervalued in that spot four and two

869
00:39:53,560 --> 00:39:56,520
Speaker 4: against the spread in the six games that Flacco has missed.

870
00:39:56,880 --> 00:39:59,480
Speaker 4: And somebody that could be undervalued as a result in

871
00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:04,160
Speaker 4: DFF fantasy Alex Collins. In the first six games of

872
00:40:04,200 --> 00:40:06,880
Speaker 4: the year, he accounted for fifty six percent of their

873
00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:10,279
Speaker 4: running back carries, but over the last three games he's

874
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:13,600
Speaker 4: accounted for seventy eight percent of the Ravens running back carries.

875
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:15,040
Speaker 2: So they've been committing to.

876
00:40:15,080 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 4: Him a little more, using a buck out a little

877
00:40:17,200 --> 00:40:21,160
Speaker 4: bit less, and I would expect that to continue, especially

878
00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:22,960
Speaker 4: when if they're down to their second or third string

879
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:23,960
Speaker 4: starring quarterback.

880
00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:26,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, and to your point about Alex Collins, he has

881
00:40:26,520 --> 00:40:29,600
Speaker 1: actually popped at the top of one of our models

882
00:40:29,600 --> 00:40:34,320
Speaker 1: at fantasy Labs, so definitely someone to consider. Okay, let's

883
00:40:34,480 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 1: get into our third and long segment online up building

884
00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:39,839
Speaker 1: this slave strategy. Right after Josh Applebaum tells us which

885
00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:41,960
Speaker 1: game the wise guys are betting this week.

886
00:40:43,440 --> 00:40:47,400
Speaker 5: The Money Talks and Action, Apple Bomb is all ears.

887
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:51,400
Speaker 5: This is the Sharp Report.

888
00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:55,640
Speaker 6: NFL Week eleven. We are traveling to New Orleans for

889
00:40:55,760 --> 00:40:59,440
Speaker 6: a showdown between the defending champion but struggling Philadelphia Eagles

890
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:03,800
Speaker 6: the high flying New Orleans Saints. Seen a matchup between

891
00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:06,200
Speaker 6: two teams who are trending in opposite directions. The Eagles

892
00:41:06,200 --> 00:41:08,920
Speaker 6: are four and five. They're coming off a disappointing loss

893
00:41:09,040 --> 00:41:12,320
Speaker 6: twenty seven to twenty at home against Dallas. Meanwhile, the Saints,

894
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:15,000
Speaker 6: after losing the opening game to Tampa Bay, They've ripped

895
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:17,680
Speaker 6: off eight in a row. They look unstoppable. They've crushed

896
00:41:17,680 --> 00:41:20,520
Speaker 6: their opponents. They've won fifty one to fourteen last week

897
00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:23,279
Speaker 6: against the Bengals, and you've seen a huge pros versus

898
00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:25,640
Speaker 6: Joe's matchup in this one. The New Orleans Saints opened

899
00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:28,360
Speaker 6: as a nine point favorite at Bookmaker, one of the

900
00:41:28,400 --> 00:41:32,279
Speaker 6: sharpest offshore sports books, and the public is pounding New

901
00:41:32,400 --> 00:41:34,920
Speaker 6: Orleans at home in the Dome, thinking it's going to

902
00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:37,280
Speaker 6: be an easy double digit win for New Orleans. However,

903
00:41:37,360 --> 00:41:39,880
Speaker 6: Sharp's been getting down on Philly in this one, buying

904
00:41:39,880 --> 00:41:42,600
Speaker 6: low on Philly in a bounce back situation. Philly is

905
00:41:42,600 --> 00:41:45,000
Speaker 6: only getting thirty eight percent of spread bets, but they're

906
00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:47,879
Speaker 6: getting sixty four percent of spread dollars. This is really

907
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:50,160
Speaker 6: telling you that the big sharper wagers here are on

908
00:41:50,239 --> 00:41:53,480
Speaker 6: Philly to keep it within a touchdown. Meanwhile, the average

909
00:41:53,560 --> 00:41:56,480
Speaker 6: Joe five dollars bets are pounding New Orleans as they

910
00:41:56,520 --> 00:41:58,680
Speaker 6: just keep running through the league. You've also seen pretty

911
00:41:58,680 --> 00:42:00,879
Speaker 6: good bet signal on this game. Game opened at nine

912
00:42:00,960 --> 00:42:04,200
Speaker 6: and immediately Sharps at Sia hammered Philly at plus nine.

913
00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:07,040
Speaker 6: Since that time, it's caused the line to fall to

914
00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:09,359
Speaker 6: eight and a half at book Maker. Interesting thing here

915
00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:11,320
Speaker 6: is that the eight and a half on Philly is

916
00:42:11,400 --> 00:42:13,640
Speaker 6: juiced up to minus one fifteen, which leads you to

917
00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:16,520
Speaker 6: believe that it may even fall further to eight. Philadelphia

918
00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:20,160
Speaker 6: Eagles also match bet Labs Pro system fade NFL win

919
00:42:20,239 --> 00:42:23,520
Speaker 6: Streaks system. Basically, you're buying low going against the team

920
00:42:23,520 --> 00:42:26,520
Speaker 6: who's done well and covered and continues to win. As

921
00:42:26,560 --> 00:42:29,719
Speaker 6: contrarion betters always want to sell on good news, buy

922
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 6: on bad news, take advantage of inflated lines, and the

923
00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:34,600
Speaker 6: Eagles would be in a BILO situation here that bet

924
00:42:34,640 --> 00:42:38,640
Speaker 6: Lab system fade Streaks NFL spread is fifty seven percent.

925
00:42:38,719 --> 00:42:41,600
Speaker 6: Ats across the market, You've seen different numbers on this game.

926
00:42:41,800 --> 00:42:44,040
Speaker 6: Some books are down to seven and a half, some

927
00:42:44,160 --> 00:42:45,759
Speaker 6: are at eight and a half, some are at eight,

928
00:42:46,080 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 6: some are at nine, So.

929
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:48,879
Speaker 1: It really depends. The market.

930
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:50,960
Speaker 6: Consensus is all over the place on this one. So

931
00:42:51,520 --> 00:42:53,760
Speaker 6: Sharps will be shopping for the best line as always,

932
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:57,000
Speaker 6: hoping to get Philly at nine or more. And even

933
00:42:57,040 --> 00:42:59,960
Speaker 6: though the public is expecting the high flying Saints Andrew

934
00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:02,279
Speaker 6: Brees to continue to roll, Sharps are buying low on

935
00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:04,600
Speaker 6: the defending champs to bounce back and keep it within

936
00:43:04,640 --> 00:43:05,080
Speaker 6: one score.

937
00:43:05,400 --> 00:43:07,319
Speaker 1: All right, That was Josh Applebaum. Be sure to check

938
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:10,520
Speaker 1: out his article The Sharp Report each week on the

939
00:43:10,600 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 1: Action Network. Chris, let's talk some strategy. Let's look at

940
00:43:14,719 --> 00:43:18,239
Speaker 1: the highest owned players in the Fantasy Last Models, and

941
00:43:18,360 --> 00:43:23,000
Speaker 1: let's start with Drew Brees at home versus the Philadelphia Eagles.

942
00:43:23,440 --> 00:43:26,640
Speaker 1: What are you doing with him in DFS?

943
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:29,160
Speaker 4: I think he's feeling I like the safest cash play.

944
00:43:29,320 --> 00:43:31,160
Speaker 4: The one concern with him is that this team runs

945
00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:33,120
Speaker 4: the ball, so they're a lot more committed to the

946
00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:35,279
Speaker 4: rundow than they have been in the past. They also

947
00:43:35,280 --> 00:43:37,800
Speaker 4: have Taysom Hill who comes in and tends to siphon

948
00:43:37,880 --> 00:43:40,520
Speaker 4: snaps from Breeze. Although you know Breeze lines up at

949
00:43:40,520 --> 00:43:42,200
Speaker 4: wide receiver in these spots and maybe he'll catch a

950
00:43:42,239 --> 00:43:44,760
Speaker 4: touchdown or something, but you know that that is a concern.

951
00:43:44,800 --> 00:43:47,080
Speaker 4: But at the same time, like I said, I feel

952
00:43:47,080 --> 00:43:49,799
Speaker 4: good about the Eagles offense on the other side, So

953
00:43:49,920 --> 00:43:51,840
Speaker 4: I just think you have such a potential for a

954
00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:54,360
Speaker 4: high scoring game in this one, and we drew with

955
00:43:54,480 --> 00:43:57,279
Speaker 4: Breeze at home that I still feel good about him.

956
00:43:57,320 --> 00:44:00,279
Speaker 4: I mentioned that Panthers Lions game, I think can't Newton

957
00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:02,239
Speaker 4: is probably if you're not going Breeze, you probably go

958
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:05,600
Speaker 4: Cam Newton. So I really have no problem with that.

959
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:07,560
Speaker 4: I think that the only my only thing with that

960
00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:09,800
Speaker 4: is that probably will be a lower scoring game just

961
00:44:09,800 --> 00:44:13,360
Speaker 4: because Detroit has been having some trouble protecting Stafford or

962
00:44:13,440 --> 00:44:16,160
Speaker 4: getting open or a combination of both. Really, I would

963
00:44:16,320 --> 00:44:19,480
Speaker 4: say actually more getting open than protecting Stafford, and you

964
00:44:19,560 --> 00:44:23,040
Speaker 4: have Marvin Jones on the injury report, which is not

965
00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:27,080
Speaker 4: ideal to solve that problem. So I think I still

966
00:44:27,120 --> 00:44:30,000
Speaker 4: like Breeze as as a top top cash play.

967
00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:32,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, you mentioned Newton there, he is someone who has

968
00:44:32,960 --> 00:44:35,680
Speaker 1: popped in some of our models. Any thoughts on any

969
00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:39,160
Speaker 1: of these other quarterbacks, potentially Carson Wentz on the other

970
00:44:39,320 --> 00:44:41,760
Speaker 1: side of that matchup going against Drew Brees.

971
00:44:42,400 --> 00:44:44,520
Speaker 4: I actually wonder what you think of it, because I've

972
00:44:44,520 --> 00:44:47,600
Speaker 4: just heard so many different opinions on Wentz this week.

973
00:44:47,640 --> 00:44:50,440
Speaker 4: I think you, I and Sean Corner and our fancy

974
00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:52,960
Speaker 4: rankings over at Action Network are pretty much in line

975
00:44:53,160 --> 00:44:56,000
Speaker 4: with Wentz is like kind of just like outside the

976
00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:57,879
Speaker 4: top five but inside the top ten kind of guy.

977
00:44:58,520 --> 00:45:00,760
Speaker 4: But I've seen him ranked as highs like sex third.

978
00:45:00,920 --> 00:45:03,719
Speaker 4: So how do you feel about Wentz going on the

979
00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:06,440
Speaker 4: road to Philly? And in my personal like you know,

980
00:45:06,480 --> 00:45:08,680
Speaker 4: projection model, he's just not popping as like a top

981
00:45:08,760 --> 00:45:11,239
Speaker 4: three guy even though he's going on the road to

982
00:45:11,239 --> 00:45:11,760
Speaker 4: the Whorlands.

983
00:45:11,800 --> 00:45:13,439
Speaker 2: So what are you doing with him?

984
00:45:14,360 --> 00:45:16,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, it is that situation where you know they're playing

985
00:45:16,840 --> 00:45:20,120
Speaker 1: at the you know, hashtag trademark of course, Phil the

986
00:45:20,120 --> 00:45:23,960
Speaker 1: Fantasy Football like it's conceivably a good spot. I'm a

987
00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:28,440
Speaker 1: little more pessimistic on that offense. I wouldn't want him

988
00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:30,439
Speaker 1: in cash, but I do think he's a really good

989
00:45:30,520 --> 00:45:33,319
Speaker 1: leverage play in GPPs because I think there will be

990
00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:36,520
Speaker 1: a lot of people who are looking for breeze in

991
00:45:36,600 --> 00:45:39,560
Speaker 1: this game, So I'm not quite as high on wins

992
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:42,319
Speaker 1: as I would be. I don't know, like another quarterback

993
00:45:42,680 --> 00:45:46,000
Speaker 1: playing on the road in the Superdome, but I still

994
00:45:46,000 --> 00:45:48,680
Speaker 1: think it's a good spot. There is a lot of

995
00:45:48,719 --> 00:45:52,239
Speaker 1: potential with that offense. I just don't feel as like

996
00:45:52,440 --> 00:45:56,160
Speaker 1: certain about it, like enough to roster it in cash. Yeah.

997
00:45:56,160 --> 00:45:58,200
Speaker 4: I think that's kind of about like like when you can,

998
00:45:58,320 --> 00:46:01,400
Speaker 4: like you don't really want to roster road under especially

999
00:46:01,440 --> 00:46:03,320
Speaker 4: big road underdogs, Like I don't think the spread should

1000
00:46:03,320 --> 00:46:05,040
Speaker 4: be that big, but you know, bottom line is it

1001
00:46:05,120 --> 00:46:05,680
Speaker 4: is what it is.

1002
00:46:05,920 --> 00:46:06,440
Speaker 2: Wisdom of the.

1003
00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:09,080
Speaker 4: Crowds is still you know, it still tends to be,

1004
00:46:09,560 --> 00:46:11,680
Speaker 4: you know, somewhat accurate. And if you don't have to

1005
00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:13,080
Speaker 4: go there and cash, I don't think you do. I

1006
00:46:13,120 --> 00:46:16,440
Speaker 4: think one interesting play if you want to kind of

1007
00:46:17,080 --> 00:46:20,560
Speaker 4: capture like a whole offense, which we try to do,

1008
00:46:20,640 --> 00:46:24,400
Speaker 4: and like a more viable road underdog maybe would be

1009
00:46:24,440 --> 00:46:26,399
Speaker 4: the Cowboys because Dak is so cheap and you can

1010
00:46:26,480 --> 00:46:29,440
Speaker 4: kind of stack Dak and Zeke against the Falcons defense

1011
00:46:29,440 --> 00:46:31,560
Speaker 4: that has been so bad. But then you know, there's

1012
00:46:31,600 --> 00:46:34,440
Speaker 4: also been situations where I know Dak has a pretty

1013
00:46:35,120 --> 00:46:37,640
Speaker 4: pretty bad record versus the over in his career, so

1014
00:46:38,080 --> 00:46:40,040
Speaker 4: there's kind of question marks about that too, which always

1015
00:46:40,040 --> 00:46:41,279
Speaker 4: brings it really just brings me.

1016
00:46:41,239 --> 00:46:43,880
Speaker 2: Back to to Breeze and and Cam Newton.

1017
00:46:44,120 --> 00:46:46,880
Speaker 1: Okay, and you mentioned our rankings here. Yeah, we both

1018
00:46:46,920 --> 00:46:49,839
Speaker 1: along with Corner have have Carson ranks kind of in

1019
00:46:49,880 --> 00:46:52,799
Speaker 1: that mid tier right below like the top five, and

1020
00:46:53,040 --> 00:46:55,839
Speaker 1: people obviously can find our rankings at actionnetwork dot com

1021
00:46:55,840 --> 00:46:59,239
Speaker 1: Slash Fantasy. Let's talk about the running backs. Someone who

1022
00:46:59,320 --> 00:47:02,520
Speaker 1: is standing out in our models David Johnson at home

1023
00:47:02,760 --> 00:47:06,000
Speaker 1: versus the Raiders. It's not often that we have the

1024
00:47:06,000 --> 00:47:09,160
Speaker 1: Cardinals team as a favorite, much less a home favorite,

1025
00:47:09,280 --> 00:47:12,680
Speaker 1: but a great spot for David Johnson, especially now that

1026
00:47:12,719 --> 00:47:16,280
Speaker 1: there is a new offensive coordinator in town in Byron

1027
00:47:16,360 --> 00:47:18,720
Speaker 1: left Ridge. What are you doing with David Johnson?

1028
00:47:19,280 --> 00:47:21,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think he's a he's a cash play, like

1029
00:47:21,719 --> 00:47:24,239
Speaker 4: for you you know this, this open defense has been

1030
00:47:25,719 --> 00:47:27,239
Speaker 4: I mean pretty much the worst in the league.

1031
00:47:27,239 --> 00:47:29,080
Speaker 2: They keep losing players. I mean, just some of the

1032
00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:29,959
Speaker 2: stories to come.

1033
00:47:29,880 --> 00:47:32,360
Speaker 4: Out of that locker room recently, Like I think I

1034
00:47:32,400 --> 00:47:36,160
Speaker 4: saw a quote somewhere that was just like Dominic Rogers

1035
00:47:36,200 --> 00:47:39,640
Speaker 4: Cromarty rather retire than play here, like Bruce Irvin was

1036
00:47:39,680 --> 00:47:41,600
Speaker 4: like jumped for joy when he got released. Like it's

1037
00:47:41,640 --> 00:47:44,480
Speaker 4: just that in that Oakland locker room, you know, on

1038
00:47:44,480 --> 00:47:46,680
Speaker 4: that defense, because they're they're losing all their best, they're

1039
00:47:46,680 --> 00:47:48,480
Speaker 4: losing all their veterans that there wasn't they weren't a

1040
00:47:48,560 --> 00:47:51,080
Speaker 4: very talented defense to begin with. So I think this

1041
00:47:51,120 --> 00:47:53,719
Speaker 4: is the play at home at running back, Like this

1042
00:47:53,760 --> 00:47:56,399
Speaker 4: is your top top play at running back this week?

1043
00:47:56,880 --> 00:48:00,200
Speaker 1: All right, Ezekiel Ella. You mentioned him earlier in a

1044
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:03,279
Speaker 1: smash spot against the Falcons, although of course I'm gonna

1045
00:48:03,280 --> 00:48:05,799
Speaker 1: be pessimistic on him because he's a cowboy, But what

1046
00:48:05,840 --> 00:48:06,680
Speaker 1: are your thoughts on him?

1047
00:48:07,080 --> 00:48:08,239
Speaker 4: I mean, I think it kind of goes back to

1048
00:48:08,280 --> 00:48:10,080
Speaker 4: what I said about Dak and him, Like if you're

1049
00:48:10,160 --> 00:48:13,600
Speaker 4: the more confident you are in the in this game

1050
00:48:13,640 --> 00:48:16,360
Speaker 4: and in Dallas kind of putting up some points in Blanta,

1051
00:48:16,400 --> 00:48:18,600
Speaker 4: I think the more viable it is to kind of

1052
00:48:18,680 --> 00:48:22,160
Speaker 4: stack him and Dak. But just because you know he's

1053
00:48:22,160 --> 00:48:25,759
Speaker 4: a road underdog, you know, we have seen him be

1054
00:48:25,840 --> 00:48:28,560
Speaker 4: a little human at times this year. Again, it's just

1055
00:48:28,560 --> 00:48:30,120
Speaker 4: one of those like I feel good about the Cowboys

1056
00:48:30,120 --> 00:48:31,520
Speaker 4: scoring a lot of points, but this is these are

1057
00:48:31,560 --> 00:48:33,759
Speaker 4: cash games. You're always trying to make what's the most

1058
00:48:33,880 --> 00:48:36,440
Speaker 4: likely thing to happen and what's the safest route I

1059
00:48:36,440 --> 00:48:39,600
Speaker 4: can kind of choose, And I don't think that's quite it.

1060
00:48:40,040 --> 00:48:41,480
Speaker 4: I think you kind of want to go with David

1061
00:48:41,560 --> 00:48:46,040
Speaker 4: Johnson and maybe like a cheaper guy at the flex,

1062
00:48:46,080 --> 00:48:48,319
Speaker 4: like a Geon Lewis, and then and then you still

1063
00:48:48,320 --> 00:48:51,480
Speaker 4: have room to fit in another stud like I think Saquon.

1064
00:48:51,560 --> 00:48:52,640
Speaker 2: I think I felt a little better.

1065
00:48:52,560 --> 00:48:57,520
Speaker 4: About because his his PPR floor is just higher and

1066
00:48:57,920 --> 00:49:01,560
Speaker 4: he's going against the probably just bad defense that maybe

1067
00:49:01,560 --> 00:49:06,239
Speaker 4: we kind of forgot is bad because of the great Alex.

1068
00:49:05,920 --> 00:49:09,759
Speaker 1: Smith Sakuon you mentioned him there. To me, he is

1069
00:49:09,920 --> 00:49:14,000
Speaker 1: the jam him and guy this week, he's he's popping

1070
00:49:14,080 --> 00:49:17,080
Speaker 1: in our models, and understandably so. He just gets so

1071
00:49:17,160 --> 00:49:20,319
Speaker 1: much usage, especially in the passing game, and he gets

1072
00:49:20,400 --> 00:49:23,480
Speaker 1: enough usage as a runner where I think kind of

1073
00:49:23,520 --> 00:49:27,320
Speaker 1: regardless of however the game script shakes out this week,

1074
00:49:27,520 --> 00:49:31,240
Speaker 1: he's pretty much a lock for a good deal of production,

1075
00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:35,320
Speaker 1: especially on DraftKings. I believe that he has the highest

1076
00:49:35,400 --> 00:49:38,880
Speaker 1: median and highest ceiling projections in our models, and obviously

1077
00:49:38,960 --> 00:49:41,040
Speaker 1: he's priced up so it's I mean, it's not easy,

1078
00:49:41,080 --> 00:49:44,720
Speaker 1: but I think he's someone that you prioritize. Melvin Gordon

1079
00:49:45,000 --> 00:49:49,120
Speaker 1: is another person who is interesting at home favored, the

1080
00:49:49,160 --> 00:49:53,640
Speaker 1: matchup isn't great against the Broncos defense, but again, he's

1081
00:49:53,680 --> 00:49:56,760
Speaker 1: a three down type of player. And as you noted,

1082
00:49:57,239 --> 00:50:00,960
Speaker 1: since the bye week, Austin Eckler hasn't been getting nearly

1083
00:50:01,280 --> 00:50:05,240
Speaker 1: as many snaps, also not as many touches. So what

1084
00:50:05,320 --> 00:50:07,680
Speaker 1: was kind of once more of a committee is now

1085
00:50:07,800 --> 00:50:11,200
Speaker 1: sort of like basically a monopoly for Gordon. What are

1086
00:50:11,239 --> 00:50:12,080
Speaker 1: your thoughts on him?

1087
00:50:12,480 --> 00:50:14,480
Speaker 4: First of all, I'm just like I just want to

1088
00:50:14,520 --> 00:50:17,759
Speaker 4: remind and like this doesn't discoover myself, but you know,

1089
00:50:17,960 --> 00:50:20,319
Speaker 4: just us as like an industry, US in general, Like

1090
00:50:20,440 --> 00:50:23,880
Speaker 4: I just want to remind everyone that before like the season,

1091
00:50:24,280 --> 00:50:26,800
Speaker 4: you know, these last couple of seasons, the chatter about

1092
00:50:26,840 --> 00:50:31,080
Speaker 4: Melvin Gordon had always been is this guy that good?

1093
00:50:31,400 --> 00:50:34,080
Speaker 2: Is he efficient enough? Is he that good? What's going

1094
00:50:34,120 --> 00:50:36,200
Speaker 2: on with the low yards per carry?

1095
00:50:36,280 --> 00:50:39,959
Speaker 4: And like he has completely like just destroyed that whole

1096
00:50:40,000 --> 00:50:42,240
Speaker 4: notion this year, you know, with his play.

1097
00:50:42,360 --> 00:50:44,040
Speaker 2: So like that's always something to keep in mind.

1098
00:50:44,080 --> 00:50:47,120
Speaker 4: Like yards per carry, I believe it stabilizes at about

1099
00:50:47,160 --> 00:50:49,960
Speaker 4: two thousand carries before you even get to like a

1100
00:50:50,000 --> 00:50:53,120
Speaker 4: correlation and R squared to fifty a point five, which means, like,

1101
00:50:53,160 --> 00:50:56,560
Speaker 4: you know, it explains fifty percent of the of the variants. So,

1102
00:50:57,040 --> 00:50:59,759
Speaker 4: for example, Gordon's at five point four yards per carrys here.

1103
00:50:59,800 --> 00:51:03,360
Speaker 4: So I think that he's, like, he's probably the best

1104
00:51:03,440 --> 00:51:05,760
Speaker 4: tournament play out of all of the ones we just mentioned,

1105
00:51:05,760 --> 00:51:07,880
Speaker 4: because I think he'll end up with the lowest ownership

1106
00:51:07,960 --> 00:51:12,200
Speaker 4: and his upside is just as high as any as

1107
00:51:12,239 --> 00:51:13,480
Speaker 4: any of those other guys.

1108
00:51:13,880 --> 00:51:19,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, Deane Lewis at the Colts relatively low salary compared

1109
00:51:19,400 --> 00:51:22,280
Speaker 1: to the usage that he has seen over the past

1110
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:24,759
Speaker 1: two or three weeks. How are you approaching him?

1111
00:51:24,960 --> 00:51:25,600
Speaker 2: I love Lewis.

1112
00:51:25,600 --> 00:51:27,719
Speaker 4: I mean he got you know, he didn't smash last week,

1113
00:51:27,760 --> 00:51:30,080
Speaker 4: and I think I talked about it on the Monday

1114
00:51:30,080 --> 00:51:32,319
Speaker 4: Show with Ian a couple of weeks ago. But there's

1115
00:51:32,360 --> 00:51:33,920
Speaker 4: going there's always going to be time or maybe it

1116
00:51:33,960 --> 00:51:35,080
Speaker 4: was last week. I think it was to do with

1117
00:51:35,120 --> 00:51:37,520
Speaker 4: Kareem Hunt, but there's always going to be times where

1118
00:51:37,840 --> 00:51:40,280
Speaker 4: a running back gets a lot of work and they

1119
00:51:40,320 --> 00:51:41,920
Speaker 4: just they don't score a touchdown or they you know,

1120
00:51:41,960 --> 00:51:45,000
Speaker 4: they don't for whatever reason, they don't smash, and that

1121
00:51:45,120 --> 00:51:48,320
Speaker 4: ended up happening with Lewis last week. He had twenty carries.

1122
00:51:48,360 --> 00:51:51,279
Speaker 4: Though mentioned over the last week's combined he's playing, you know,

1123
00:51:51,320 --> 00:51:53,880
Speaker 4: eighty percent of the snaps. So I think he's in

1124
00:51:53,920 --> 00:51:56,000
Speaker 4: a really good spot. Again, I think that's a lot.

1125
00:51:56,040 --> 00:51:58,040
Speaker 4: That's a great amount of volume to get at that price,

1126
00:51:58,440 --> 00:52:01,600
Speaker 4: and you're kind of getting a discount because he didn't smash.

1127
00:52:01,840 --> 00:52:03,680
Speaker 4: It's kind of like the square play almost to go

1128
00:52:03,719 --> 00:52:05,959
Speaker 4: away from him in this spot just because he didn't

1129
00:52:05,960 --> 00:52:08,320
Speaker 4: smash it, you know, last week, because you know, the

1130
00:52:08,880 --> 00:52:12,160
Speaker 4: workload has been there, and this defense for the Coats,

1131
00:52:12,200 --> 00:52:14,839
Speaker 4: I know, you're you're a little more uh, you're you're

1132
00:52:14,840 --> 00:52:18,279
Speaker 4: bullsh on on this Colt defense. But there's still a

1133
00:52:18,320 --> 00:52:20,480
Speaker 4: defense that I think is not you can definitely move

1134
00:52:20,520 --> 00:52:22,640
Speaker 4: the ball on the Coast defense. And I think that

1135
00:52:23,000 --> 00:52:26,880
Speaker 4: especially with it looks like Taeywan Taylor is going to

1136
00:52:26,880 --> 00:52:27,560
Speaker 4: miss this game.

1137
00:52:27,640 --> 00:52:30,480
Speaker 2: He was essentially the second most.

1138
00:52:30,280 --> 00:52:34,080
Speaker 4: Targeted receiver for the Titans, and that kind of waves Lewis,

1139
00:52:34,080 --> 00:52:36,600
Speaker 4: who's the second most targeted player in line to get

1140
00:52:36,600 --> 00:52:39,160
Speaker 4: the second most targets on this team. And so I

1141
00:52:39,160 --> 00:52:40,840
Speaker 4: think that that this is just a good all around

1142
00:52:40,880 --> 00:52:43,480
Speaker 4: spot for him, and uh, you know, he did get.

1143
00:52:43,320 --> 00:52:44,080
Speaker 2: Some work inside.

1144
00:52:44,080 --> 00:52:45,880
Speaker 4: It was like, I know, Henry got the two touchdowns,

1145
00:52:45,880 --> 00:52:47,960
Speaker 4: but you know Lewis, you know, he looked good out there.

1146
00:52:48,000 --> 00:52:50,279
Speaker 2: He was getting in, he was getting work. We just

1147
00:52:50,360 --> 00:52:51,480
Speaker 2: you know, things didn't go.

1148
00:52:51,400 --> 00:52:54,239
Speaker 4: As way with the with the touchdowns, but I think

1149
00:52:54,280 --> 00:52:55,920
Speaker 4: you got to go back to him in this spot.

1150
00:52:56,080 --> 00:52:59,200
Speaker 1: All right, Let's talk about some wide receivers. Three guys

1151
00:52:59,239 --> 00:53:01,959
Speaker 1: near the top of the salary scale. We are also

1152
00:53:02,040 --> 00:53:05,480
Speaker 1: projecting them to have pretty high ownership. Odell Beckham Junior

1153
00:53:05,800 --> 00:53:09,680
Speaker 1: against the Bucks, Michael Thomas against the injured Eagles secondary

1154
00:53:09,680 --> 00:53:13,200
Speaker 1: in Julio Jones against the Cowboys. How are you distinguishing

1155
00:53:13,280 --> 00:53:14,520
Speaker 1: between those three guys.

1156
00:53:14,960 --> 00:53:17,000
Speaker 4: I just don't know who's in a better smash spot,

1157
00:53:17,080 --> 00:53:18,200
Speaker 4: Jones or Beckham.

1158
00:53:18,200 --> 00:53:20,080
Speaker 2: I mean, I think those are the queer top two.

1159
00:53:20,880 --> 00:53:23,600
Speaker 4: You know, Julio has he's starting to score touchdowns, He's

1160
00:53:24,040 --> 00:53:26,319
Speaker 4: his yards per route run is amazing. You know, he's

1161
00:53:26,440 --> 00:53:28,719
Speaker 4: putting up numbers every week too. So he's in a

1162
00:53:28,760 --> 00:53:32,160
Speaker 4: great spot too. But Dallas a little bit better versus

1163
00:53:32,880 --> 00:53:35,839
Speaker 4: receivers Byron Jones has been playing well out there. They

1164
00:53:35,840 --> 00:53:38,120
Speaker 4: have been able to kind of limit the big, big

1165
00:53:38,160 --> 00:53:42,160
Speaker 4: smash spots for a lot of the better receivers they faced.

1166
00:53:42,280 --> 00:53:45,239
Speaker 4: So I feel better about Jones, excuse me, I feel

1167
00:53:45,239 --> 00:53:47,480
Speaker 4: better about Thomas and I feel better about Beckham than

1168
00:53:47,520 --> 00:53:49,600
Speaker 4: I do about Jones and cash Games. I don't think

1169
00:53:49,600 --> 00:53:51,960
Speaker 4: I'm going to pay up for either of them, just

1170
00:53:52,000 --> 00:53:54,799
Speaker 4: because I think the way you're you kind of build,

1171
00:53:54,840 --> 00:53:56,960
Speaker 4: well maybe on FanDuel, but on DraftKings, I think the

1172
00:53:57,560 --> 00:54:00,640
Speaker 4: better build is still kind of going like the two

1173
00:54:00,719 --> 00:54:03,439
Speaker 4: like David Johnson and another Stud running back rather than

1174
00:54:03,640 --> 00:54:04,480
Speaker 4: paying up at receiver.

1175
00:54:04,560 --> 00:54:06,120
Speaker 2: But I think you could. You could probably make it

1176
00:54:06,160 --> 00:54:06,799
Speaker 2: work either way.

1177
00:54:06,840 --> 00:54:09,240
Speaker 4: But it's just that the Stud running backs have a higher,

1178
00:54:09,400 --> 00:54:11,600
Speaker 4: higher floor for your for your salary, and you can

1179
00:54:11,680 --> 00:54:14,440
Speaker 4: usually find some other guys a little more in that

1180
00:54:14,480 --> 00:54:17,000
Speaker 4: mid tier that are gonna get good volume at a receiver.

1181
00:54:17,360 --> 00:54:20,040
Speaker 1: All right, Any thoughts on any other wide receivers.

1182
00:54:20,440 --> 00:54:23,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, So this is it seems like like a real

1183
00:54:23,239 --> 00:54:28,160
Speaker 4: point chasy combination. But I feel good about feel pretty

1184
00:54:28,160 --> 00:54:32,000
Speaker 4: good about Corey Davis, Amari Cooper, and Kenny Galladay this week,

1185
00:54:32,160 --> 00:54:35,400
Speaker 4: just where they're priced at relative to the volume that

1186
00:54:35,440 --> 00:54:37,239
Speaker 4: I think they have, and like the upside that I

1187
00:54:37,280 --> 00:54:39,480
Speaker 4: think they have. You know, Galladay is in a spot

1188
00:54:39,480 --> 00:54:42,600
Speaker 4: where you know mentioned you know, Stafford struggling, but Gallady's

1189
00:54:42,640 --> 00:54:44,520
Speaker 4: really going to be the only guy, especially if Marvin

1190
00:54:44,600 --> 00:54:46,400
Speaker 4: Jones is banged up. I actually think it would be

1191
00:54:46,400 --> 00:54:49,520
Speaker 4: better if Jones played, because there would be more concentrated

1192
00:54:49,560 --> 00:54:52,040
Speaker 4: coverage on Galladay if Jones set out. But either way,

1193
00:54:52,080 --> 00:54:55,440
Speaker 4: I mean, this is a bad Detroit defense that's probably

1194
00:54:55,440 --> 00:54:58,480
Speaker 4: going to be playing catch up. So I think Galladay

1195
00:54:58,520 --> 00:55:00,560
Speaker 4: is in a good spot to get volu I think

1196
00:55:00,680 --> 00:55:03,080
Speaker 4: Corey Davis, you know, in another good spot against this

1197
00:55:03,120 --> 00:55:05,640
Speaker 4: coach defense that you know hasn't really been able to

1198
00:55:06,239 --> 00:55:09,760
Speaker 4: play well against the past, and you know he's getting

1199
00:55:09,760 --> 00:55:12,000
Speaker 4: again thirty one percent of their targets.

1200
00:55:12,040 --> 00:55:14,040
Speaker 2: There's really nobody else for Marioa to throw to.

1201
00:55:14,080 --> 00:55:16,719
Speaker 4: And then you have Cooper, who's Dak Prescott is making

1202
00:55:16,719 --> 00:55:19,080
Speaker 4: a concerted effort to get him the ball. You're playing

1203
00:55:19,080 --> 00:55:22,920
Speaker 4: against a pretty bad defense, and as a bonus, you

1204
00:55:22,920 --> 00:55:25,560
Speaker 4: have a little bit of leverage on the Zke ownership

1205
00:55:25,560 --> 00:55:27,000
Speaker 4: with Cooper at a much cheaper price.

1206
00:55:27,080 --> 00:55:29,080
Speaker 2: So it kind of feels a little bit point chasy.

1207
00:55:29,120 --> 00:55:31,040
Speaker 4: But I think all those guys are that you can

1208
00:55:31,160 --> 00:55:33,960
Speaker 4: justify playing all of those guys in cash games.

1209
00:55:34,200 --> 00:55:36,360
Speaker 1: All right, let's close it out with tight End zach

1210
00:55:36,520 --> 00:55:40,719
Speaker 1: Ertz in the Superdome. Jordan Reed versus the Texans. Those

1211
00:55:40,719 --> 00:55:43,120
Speaker 1: are the two guys right now where you're projecting for

1212
00:55:43,160 --> 00:55:46,040
Speaker 1: the highest ownership. What are your thoughts on them? Yeah?

1213
00:55:46,040 --> 00:55:47,600
Speaker 2: I love Arts as a tournament play.

1214
00:55:47,800 --> 00:55:50,239
Speaker 4: Don't usually like to pay up at tight End in

1215
00:55:50,239 --> 00:55:52,600
Speaker 4: cash games. It's just usually not the plus ev move.

1216
00:55:52,960 --> 00:55:55,240
Speaker 4: But I think you know, he's obviously the top tournament

1217
00:55:55,239 --> 00:55:58,560
Speaker 4: but he just has upside that especially with Travis Kelcey

1218
00:55:58,640 --> 00:56:01,160
Speaker 4: not on the main state upside that know, whether tight

1219
00:56:01,280 --> 00:56:03,279
Speaker 4: End has and when you think about him as like

1220
00:56:03,320 --> 00:56:06,520
Speaker 4: a pass catcher in that price range, he's actually like

1221
00:56:06,600 --> 00:56:09,080
Speaker 4: not that overpriced at all. So I'm definitely a guy

1222
00:56:09,120 --> 00:56:11,520
Speaker 4: that I think you want to target in tournaments. Jordan

1223
00:56:11,560 --> 00:56:14,000
Speaker 4: Reid against the Texans, that's just kind of a volume

1224
00:56:14,000 --> 00:56:16,080
Speaker 4: bet at this point, Like Reid isn't the same guy.

1225
00:56:16,200 --> 00:56:18,000
Speaker 4: I don't think that was like take it over the

1226
00:56:18,080 --> 00:56:20,160
Speaker 4: league a couple of years ago, before all those injuries

1227
00:56:20,200 --> 00:56:22,319
Speaker 4: in twenty fifteen, he's more of just a tight end

1228
00:56:22,320 --> 00:56:24,279
Speaker 4: you play when he has a good matchup and can

1229
00:56:24,320 --> 00:56:26,440
Speaker 4: project for decent volume, and this is another one of

1230
00:56:26,440 --> 00:56:28,000
Speaker 4: those spots the Texans.

1231
00:56:28,040 --> 00:56:29,160
Speaker 2: Remember this is what this is.

1232
00:56:29,200 --> 00:56:31,600
Speaker 4: This is their weakness, So like this is this is

1233
00:56:31,640 --> 00:56:35,239
Speaker 4: how you kind of attack the Texans. They are one

1234
00:56:35,239 --> 00:56:38,360
Speaker 4: of the worst teams in DVOA against the tight end

1235
00:56:38,440 --> 00:56:39,959
Speaker 4: that they are the team that gave up the big,

1236
00:56:40,680 --> 00:56:42,600
Speaker 4: the big Jeff Hiring game. They're thirty first in gv

1237
00:56:42,680 --> 00:56:44,680
Speaker 4: AWAY against tight ends. So I think you just kind

1238
00:56:44,680 --> 00:56:47,040
Speaker 4: of go back and kind of play that in this

1239
00:56:47,040 --> 00:56:50,080
Speaker 4: spot with read especially on draftings, he's thirty eight hundred,

1240
00:56:50,080 --> 00:56:53,200
Speaker 4: you know, really affordable, and you do you do so

1241
00:56:53,280 --> 00:56:55,000
Speaker 4: expecting to get those five catches or so.

1242
00:56:55,040 --> 00:56:56,919
Speaker 2: It looks like jameson Crowd is going to be out again.

1243
00:56:57,320 --> 00:56:59,239
Speaker 4: I think Chris Thompson as well, So that's one of

1244
00:56:59,280 --> 00:57:00,799
Speaker 4: the guys out Smith going to be looking at.

1245
00:57:01,600 --> 00:57:03,839
Speaker 1: Okay, we're going to close out the show with our

1246
00:57:03,960 --> 00:57:06,960
Speaker 1: fourth and Goal segment previewing Sunday Night Football. But first

1247
00:57:07,000 --> 00:57:08,800
Speaker 1: let's kick it to Ian Hartitz, who runs through the

1248
00:57:08,840 --> 00:57:11,759
Speaker 1: key week eleven coverage situations.

1249
00:57:13,280 --> 00:57:18,080
Speaker 5: The press, the jam, and the five yard bump. Ian

1250
00:57:18,280 --> 00:57:24,240
Speaker 5: Harten springs you dance of the divas.

1251
00:57:24,800 --> 00:57:29,200
Speaker 7: Week eleven's wide receiver cornerback matchups feature eight potential shadows situations.

1252
00:57:29,280 --> 00:57:32,240
Speaker 7: The first is Antonio Brown versus Jalen Ramsey. Jaguars didn't

1253
00:57:32,240 --> 00:57:34,240
Speaker 7: shadow Ab and Odi of the matchup last season, but

1254
00:57:34,360 --> 00:57:37,160
Speaker 7: AJ Boyer is questionable with a calf injury, so it

1255
00:57:37,200 --> 00:57:39,880
Speaker 7: makes sense that the Jaguars don't let Ab run wild

1256
00:57:39,960 --> 00:57:43,320
Speaker 7: on their backup cornerbacks. Next matchup is DeAndre Hopkins versus

1257
00:57:43,360 --> 00:57:46,840
Speaker 7: Josh Norman. Redskins have had a Norman shadow obj Julio

1258
00:57:46,920 --> 00:57:48,840
Speaker 7: Jones and Mike Evans in the last three weeks with

1259
00:57:48,920 --> 00:57:52,960
Speaker 7: limited success. Hopkins can win this matchup. Next shadow date

1260
00:57:53,040 --> 00:57:55,600
Speaker 7: is t Y Hilton versus Dorri Jackson. The Titans have

1261
00:57:55,720 --> 00:57:58,160
Speaker 7: used a Dori in shadow coverage five times over the

1262
00:57:58,240 --> 00:58:00,920
Speaker 7: last two seasons. He did shut down Hilton last year,

1263
00:58:00,960 --> 00:58:03,760
Speaker 7: which a Kobe Brissett under center, but again some matchup

1264
00:58:03,800 --> 00:58:06,800
Speaker 7: Hilton can win. Marvin Jones and Kenny Galladay will see

1265
00:58:06,840 --> 00:58:10,320
Speaker 7: James Bradberry and Dante Jackson from the Panthers. Jones's question

1266
00:58:10,320 --> 00:58:12,400
Speaker 7: mob with the knee injury. It's tough to say who's

1267
00:58:12,400 --> 00:58:15,560
Speaker 7: gonna guard who because Bradbury usually takes the bigger guy

1268
00:58:15,640 --> 00:58:18,600
Speaker 7: and Jackson the faster guy, and Galladay is bigger and

1269
00:58:18,680 --> 00:58:21,480
Speaker 7: faster than Marvin Jones. Devin Funches should see plenty of

1270
00:58:21,560 --> 00:58:24,560
Speaker 7: Darius slay We saw Alan Robinson go off last week

1271
00:58:24,560 --> 00:58:27,080
Speaker 7: with Darius Slay out, but he's been practicing this week

1272
00:58:27,080 --> 00:58:30,040
Speaker 7: and more, expecting him to play very tough matchup for Funches,

1273
00:58:30,040 --> 00:58:32,800
Speaker 7: and he has weekly volume concerns with Olsen back Corland

1274
00:58:32,800 --> 00:58:36,240
Speaker 7: Sutton should see Casey Hayward. Chargers had Hayward Childsmarus Thomas

1275
00:58:36,240 --> 00:58:38,720
Speaker 7: in recent years, and Emanuel Sanders spends most of his

1276
00:58:38,800 --> 00:58:41,560
Speaker 7: time in the slot. Alan Robinson should see Xavier Rhodes.

1277
00:58:41,880 --> 00:58:44,640
Speaker 7: The Vikings stuck corner is basically locked down everybody this year,

1278
00:58:44,920 --> 00:58:47,520
Speaker 7: and a rob also has weekly volume concerns considering all

1279
00:58:47,520 --> 00:58:49,480
Speaker 7: the weapons the Bears have. My favorite matchup by the

1280
00:58:49,520 --> 00:58:52,160
Speaker 7: week is Julio Jones versus the Cowboys Byron Jones. The

1281
00:58:52,200 --> 00:58:55,440
Speaker 7: Cowboys number one cornerback is very talented, but he doesn't travel,

1282
00:58:55,640 --> 00:58:57,720
Speaker 7: so we're expecting Julio to run plenty of his routes

1283
00:58:57,720 --> 00:59:01,640
Speaker 7: against Chadobia Woozier and Anthony bro each rank outside of pfs'

1284
00:59:01,720 --> 00:59:04,360
Speaker 7: top seventy cornerbacks. Who has been playing great this season,

1285
00:59:04,400 --> 00:59:06,760
Speaker 7: but we haven't seen a token massive blow up spot.

1286
00:59:06,960 --> 00:59:09,840
Speaker 7: Eleven of his sixteen career games with thirty plus DraftKings

1287
00:59:09,840 --> 00:59:11,480
Speaker 7: points have come at home.

1288
00:59:11,800 --> 00:59:13,800
Speaker 1: All right? That was Ian. Be sure to check out

1289
00:59:13,840 --> 00:59:16,920
Speaker 1: his wide Receiver cornerback matchup calumn each week at the

1290
00:59:16,960 --> 00:59:21,280
Speaker 1: Action Network Chris Sunday Night Football. The five and three

1291
00:59:21,360 --> 00:59:23,880
Speaker 1: Vikings at the six and three Bears. Bears favored by

1292
00:59:23,880 --> 00:59:26,280
Speaker 1: two and a half a forty four point five over under.

1293
00:59:26,320 --> 00:59:28,240
Speaker 1: The total is down from forty five and a half.

1294
00:59:28,480 --> 00:59:30,800
Speaker 1: The Vikings are coming off the buy. The Bears have

1295
00:59:30,920 --> 00:59:33,960
Speaker 1: won three straight games, the first of two games that

1296
00:59:33,960 --> 00:59:36,240
Speaker 1: these teams will play against each other this year. How

1297
00:59:36,240 --> 00:59:37,600
Speaker 1: are you looking at this game?

1298
00:59:38,480 --> 00:59:40,880
Speaker 4: I think that there's a little bit of value here

1299
00:59:40,880 --> 00:59:43,480
Speaker 4: on the Minnesota side of this, because I'm not sure

1300
00:59:43,520 --> 00:59:46,960
Speaker 4: the Bears are, you know, even on a neutral field,

1301
00:59:47,160 --> 00:59:47,880
Speaker 4: the better team.

1302
00:59:48,240 --> 00:59:49,960
Speaker 2: So you know, they're at home.

1303
00:59:50,000 --> 00:59:52,000
Speaker 4: They're getting the two and a half, they'll probably get

1304
00:59:52,040 --> 00:59:54,920
Speaker 4: to the three. But I like the Vikings here.

1305
00:59:54,960 --> 00:59:56,280
Speaker 2: They needed They really did need that.

1306
00:59:56,240 --> 00:59:58,640
Speaker 4: Buy to kind of regroup, get people healthy on their

1307
00:59:58,680 --> 01:00:01,720
Speaker 4: defense was really banged up. Dalvin Cook was banged up.

1308
01:00:02,040 --> 01:00:03,600
Speaker 4: But now they're kind of coming out of the buy.

1309
01:00:04,080 --> 01:00:07,240
Speaker 4: Cook giving them that explosive element. You know, he's up

1310
01:00:07,240 --> 01:00:09,080
Speaker 4: over four yards of carry now after a rough start,

1311
01:00:09,160 --> 01:00:11,600
Speaker 4: Murray's at four and a half yards to carry. And

1312
01:00:11,600 --> 01:00:15,240
Speaker 4: then the Minnesota defense, they're number one on third down

1313
01:00:15,400 --> 01:00:19,680
Speaker 4: and they're number two in red zone defense percentage touchdown

1314
01:00:19,680 --> 01:00:22,480
Speaker 4: a lot, so they're actually they like, even though they've

1315
01:00:22,600 --> 01:00:25,080
Speaker 4: kind of had these rough spots and it's been ugly

1316
01:00:25,160 --> 01:00:28,480
Speaker 4: at times, like their defense has still kind of done

1317
01:00:28,520 --> 01:00:31,240
Speaker 4: with what we expected it to do. And yes, they

1318
01:00:31,280 --> 01:00:32,920
Speaker 4: did play teams like the Bills and the Jets, but

1319
01:00:32,920 --> 01:00:36,040
Speaker 4: they also played the Packers, the Rams, the Saints, so

1320
01:00:36,840 --> 01:00:39,480
Speaker 4: the schedule has been fairly balanced. I would say for

1321
01:00:39,560 --> 01:00:41,520
Speaker 4: the most part, as the underdog, like, I think this

1322
01:00:41,600 --> 01:00:44,400
Speaker 4: is a pretty a toss up, even if even though

1323
01:00:44,480 --> 01:00:47,200
Speaker 4: Chicago's at home. So I like Minnesota here as the

1324
01:00:48,320 --> 01:00:49,440
Speaker 4: two and a half point underdog.

1325
01:00:49,920 --> 01:00:52,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with everything you said. Two and a half.

1326
01:00:52,280 --> 01:00:55,080
Speaker 1: I would wait, like officially, I would wait to bet

1327
01:00:55,120 --> 01:00:58,320
Speaker 1: this till three and I think it probably will move there.

1328
01:00:58,400 --> 01:01:00,400
Speaker 1: But you know, for the purposes of this, yeah, I

1329
01:01:00,400 --> 01:01:02,840
Speaker 1: will take them at two and a half. Coming off

1330
01:01:02,840 --> 01:01:06,640
Speaker 1: the buy. They should be healthy. Dalvin Cook especially should

1331
01:01:06,680 --> 01:01:10,120
Speaker 1: be healthier. He's had some lingering issues all season. You know,

1332
01:01:10,200 --> 01:01:12,520
Speaker 1: getting Digs back I think will be very big for

1333
01:01:12,560 --> 01:01:16,520
Speaker 1: this offense. And they've had some defensive injuries that I

1334
01:01:16,520 --> 01:01:18,720
Speaker 1: think will have time to have healed over the bye.

1335
01:01:18,840 --> 01:01:21,480
Speaker 1: So it's hard to say either one of these teams

1336
01:01:21,520 --> 01:01:24,240
Speaker 1: is clearly superior to the other. So I will take

1337
01:01:24,280 --> 01:01:27,520
Speaker 1: the team coming off the by getting points. Chris, You're

1338
01:01:27,560 --> 01:01:29,280
Speaker 1: going to break down the Monday Night game and what

1339
01:01:29,400 --> 01:01:31,800
Speaker 1: a game that is going to be. Is it is

1340
01:01:31,800 --> 01:01:34,400
Speaker 1: so disappointing that we don't have some of these great

1341
01:01:34,480 --> 01:01:36,800
Speaker 1: games on the main slate, but that's just how it is.

1342
01:01:37,360 --> 01:01:40,240
Speaker 1: The Monday Night game going to be fantastic. Moved to

1343
01:01:40,360 --> 01:01:44,280
Speaker 1: Los Angeles, but the Chiefs playing in Los Angeles against

1344
01:01:44,320 --> 01:01:46,840
Speaker 1: the Rams. You're going to preview that with I on

1345
01:01:46,920 --> 01:01:50,840
Speaker 1: the Monday Show. Any final words, Let's get this money

1346
01:01:50,920 --> 01:01:52,160
Speaker 1: all right? That is going to do it For the

1347
01:01:52,200 --> 01:01:55,840
Speaker 1: Friday episode of the Action Network NFL podcast. Be sure, rate, review,

1348
01:01:55,920 --> 01:01:59,160
Speaker 1: and subscribe for all of our upcoming episodes. For Chris Raybond,

1349
01:01:59,160 --> 01:02:01,520
Speaker 1: I'm Matthew Friedman, Mad at the Oracle. See you get

1350
01:02:01,640 --> 01:02:02,280
Speaker 1: next episode.