1 00:00:04,880 --> 00:00:07,640 Speaker 1: On this episode of News World. I did believe, and 2 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:10,400 Speaker 1: I publicly stated a number of times that I thought 3 00:00:10,440 --> 00:00:12,119 Speaker 1: there would be a red way or even a red 4 00:00:12,119 --> 00:00:16,200 Speaker 1: tsunami in the November mid term elections. I was wrong, 5 00:00:16,840 --> 00:00:19,720 Speaker 1: and I spent the last several weeks researching and analyzing 6 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:22,919 Speaker 1: the mid terms to understand how the outcome of the 7 00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:26,640 Speaker 1: election was so different from what I had expected. And 8 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:28,840 Speaker 1: I wanted to talk about the midterms in more detail 9 00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:32,400 Speaker 1: with someone I've known for forty years and have talked 10 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:36,040 Speaker 1: about politics for all those forty years. My partner in 11 00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:41,000 Speaker 1: the nineteen ninety four Contract with America campaign, my very 12 00:00:41,080 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 1: very close personal friend, Joe Gaylord. Joe has served as 13 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 1: president of Chesapeake Associates, a political consulting firm. He's worked 14 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:51,880 Speaker 1: with me personally as a senior political advisor. In nineteen 15 00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:54,280 Speaker 1: ninety four, he was named Campaign Manager of the Year 16 00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 1: by the American Association of Political Consultants, an award he 17 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 1: has shared with me for our successful campaign regaining the 18 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:04,280 Speaker 1: US House of our Presentatives for the first time in 19 00:01:04,360 --> 00:01:07,760 Speaker 1: forty years. He also served as the executive director of 20 00:01:07,800 --> 00:01:11,280 Speaker 1: the National Republican Congressional Committee from nineteen eighty two to 21 00:01:11,480 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 1: nineteen eighty nine, and during his six years at the 22 00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:18,080 Speaker 1: Republican National Committee, he developed the rnc's Campaign Management College, 23 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:21,360 Speaker 1: a guide book for candidates. He also wrote a terrific 24 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:24,959 Speaker 1: book called Flying Upside Down, which was really advice for 25 00:01:25,080 --> 00:01:28,199 Speaker 1: candidates who are running for the first time, and later 26 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:30,240 Speaker 1: he wrote a book called Flying on the Right Side Up, 27 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 1: which was for incumbents seeking reelection. So he's been remarkably productive. 28 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:38,880 Speaker 1: He helped bring an entire generation of pollsters and consultants 29 00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:42,720 Speaker 1: and professionals. In addition, D and I are working on 30 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:45,720 Speaker 1: a book for next year on the March to the Majority, 31 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 1: outlining what we did over that long period to finally 32 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:51,360 Speaker 1: get a majority for the first time in forty years 33 00:01:51,640 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 1: in nineteen ninety four. Joe, welcome and thank you for 34 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:04,480 Speaker 1: joining me on Newtsworld. I'm delighted to do it. Dude. 35 00:02:04,920 --> 00:02:07,080 Speaker 1: This will be interesting because I still don't know what happened. 36 00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:11,640 Speaker 1: This conversation will be genuinely exploring what happened. You know. 37 00:02:11,680 --> 00:02:16,560 Speaker 1: The twenty twenty two midterm turnout almost matched two eighteens 38 00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:21,240 Speaker 1: historic high and was significantly higher than twenty fourteen according 39 00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:24,120 Speaker 1: to five to thirty eight US Elections project This was 40 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:27,640 Speaker 1: a huge vote, and the youth turnout was the second 41 00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:31,000 Speaker 1: highest in the last three decades. And according to Tish 42 00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:34,560 Speaker 1: College's Center for Information Research, twenty seven percent of young 43 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:37,800 Speaker 1: people aged eighteen to twenty nine cast of vote, and 44 00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:41,880 Speaker 1: that vote among young people preferred Democrats by a twenty 45 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:46,639 Speaker 1: eight point margin. So I'm curious, how do you assess 46 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:51,880 Speaker 1: the campaign. I think there are several factors that were 47 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:55,800 Speaker 1: involved in the results that neither one of us actually 48 00:02:56,000 --> 00:03:01,960 Speaker 1: expected that we probably, on reflection, could have spent more 49 00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:06,200 Speaker 1: time trying to figure out. Part of it was a 50 00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 1: messaging problem on the part of Republican candidates. I think 51 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:14,400 Speaker 1: part of it was a delivery problem on getting the 52 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:19,120 Speaker 1: message across, and part of it was an organizational problem 53 00:03:19,200 --> 00:03:24,519 Speaker 1: with not being able to actually get and encourage the 54 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:27,240 Speaker 1: number of Republicans to the polls that we would want 55 00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:29,920 Speaker 1: to get there. One of the things I noticed those 56 00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:34,119 Speaker 1: kind of a surprise people eighteen to twenty nine were 57 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:38,240 Speaker 1: the only age group in which a strong majority supported Democrats, 58 00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:41,280 Speaker 1: which is I think an election day or the day 59 00:03:41,320 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 1: after election, nobody realized that in fact, people were making 60 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:48,839 Speaker 1: all sorts of assumptions about the impact of abortion, etc. 61 00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:52,280 Speaker 1: But in fact, that wasn't what happened. Now. I've been 62 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:56,080 Speaker 1: told that in a number of places colleges and universities 63 00:03:56,080 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 1: were actually giving students extra credit on their final great 64 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:02,600 Speaker 1: if they would go vote. And so you've got apparently 65 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:06,320 Speaker 1: a huge turnout in places like an Arbor, Michigan, for example, 66 00:04:06,800 --> 00:04:09,920 Speaker 1: in the Pennsylvania Center race where John Fetterman won by 67 00:04:10,000 --> 00:04:13,280 Speaker 1: three percent margin, young people eighteen to twenty nine preferred 68 00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:17,880 Speaker 1: him seventy to twenty eight, which is pretty remarkable. Voters 69 00:04:17,920 --> 00:04:21,240 Speaker 1: over forty five preferred doctor Oz, So a lot of 70 00:04:21,279 --> 00:04:24,120 Speaker 1: analysis that might have been that Oz was from out 71 00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:26,920 Speaker 1: of state or whatever. Young people were probably the least 72 00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 1: likely to worry about that, but the most likely to 73 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:32,120 Speaker 1: vote Democrat. Do you have any sense of what's happening 74 00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 1: in that sense, in terms of an age split rather 75 00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:39,040 Speaker 1: than an ethnic or geographic split. Yeah, I think it is. 76 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:43,919 Speaker 1: We have during the past several elections suffered at the 77 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:49,280 Speaker 1: number of gen z's and millennials voting for Republican candidates, 78 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:53,799 Speaker 1: and that would be substantiated in almost all post election research. 79 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:58,800 Speaker 1: At analysis. The point is whether or not we are 80 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:04,320 Speaker 1: actually reaching those voters in a way mechanically with our 81 00:05:04,360 --> 00:05:07,360 Speaker 1: campaign messages. And the second thing is whether we are 82 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:10,680 Speaker 1: talking about something that they think is important to them. 83 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:15,560 Speaker 1: And my sense is right now that that is really 84 00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:19,279 Speaker 1: the bigger problem that we faced with the eighteen to 85 00:05:19,360 --> 00:05:23,360 Speaker 1: twenty nine year old voters. Republican candidates are not necessarily 86 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:27,960 Speaker 1: addressing issues that they think are most important to them. Yeah, 87 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:30,000 Speaker 1: I was struck. We met with our own folks at 88 00:05:30,080 --> 00:05:32,880 Speaker 1: Kingwide Street sixty and the people who are gen z said, basically, 89 00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:35,880 Speaker 1: you know, Republicans don't pay any attention to us. I 90 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:38,800 Speaker 1: had thought that Biden was being goofy when he met 91 00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:42,799 Speaker 1: with the communicators on TikTok, but in fact, for people 92 00:05:42,800 --> 00:05:45,720 Speaker 1: who are in that age group, TikTok is vastly more 93 00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:48,480 Speaker 1: important to say than Fox News and was a sign 94 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:50,840 Speaker 1: that he at least cared about one of the worlds 95 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:53,039 Speaker 1: that they were in. I have to say, one of 96 00:05:53,040 --> 00:05:57,039 Speaker 1: the things that was shocked to me, after all the 97 00:05:57,080 --> 00:06:00,760 Speaker 1: initial pontificating and analyzing, what have you, it did turn out, 98 00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:03,279 Speaker 1: according to the Cook Political report, that we led the 99 00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:06,680 Speaker 1: Democrats by about three point five million votes for the House. 100 00:06:07,480 --> 00:06:11,160 Speaker 1: I mean, didn't you find that surprising given the outcome? Yes? 101 00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:16,400 Speaker 1: I did. Although we remember back in the eighties, Republicans 102 00:06:16,440 --> 00:06:21,760 Speaker 1: significantly outpolled Democrats in numbers of actual voters, and it 103 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:25,559 Speaker 1: has a lot to do with redistricting actually, and where 104 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:29,960 Speaker 1: resources were placed in the campaigns. In those districts that 105 00:06:30,040 --> 00:06:34,800 Speaker 1: are overwhelmingly read, I think we got overwhelming support. Those 106 00:06:34,880 --> 00:06:39,400 Speaker 1: that were more marginal, we got less support. In total, 107 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:42,919 Speaker 1: we should feel pretty good actually about getting three and 108 00:06:42,920 --> 00:06:46,159 Speaker 1: a half million more votes than Democrats did this cycle. 109 00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:49,080 Speaker 1: The question is whether they were distributed in the right 110 00:06:49,160 --> 00:06:53,120 Speaker 1: places by the emphasis that we placed on campaigns in 111 00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:55,240 Speaker 1: the right areas well, and of course part of that 112 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 1: was affected by raditioning. I mean, if I had told 113 00:06:57,240 --> 00:07:00,719 Speaker 1: you last January that the margin of the Republican majority 114 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:04,640 Speaker 1: might be New York in California, you'd have thought I 115 00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:07,960 Speaker 1: was crazy. And yet we did pick up seats in 116 00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:10,720 Speaker 1: New York, we did pick up seats in California while 117 00:07:10,760 --> 00:07:15,480 Speaker 1: we were losing incumbents. That's exactly right, I would add 118 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:21,880 Speaker 1: Florida redistricting wise, Governor DeSantis vetoed the Republican Legislature's plan 119 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:26,440 Speaker 1: for the congressional districts and then went about the design 120 00:07:26,520 --> 00:07:30,200 Speaker 1: at his own for congressional districts, and that added four 121 00:07:30,200 --> 00:07:34,560 Speaker 1: Republican seats, and when you're looking at a majority of 122 00:07:34,560 --> 00:07:38,480 Speaker 1: like four seats in the US House, Florida and New York, 123 00:07:38,960 --> 00:07:43,360 Speaker 1: California were all very important for making sure that that happened. 124 00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:46,720 Speaker 1: And I think in that sense that descenis des there's 125 00:07:46,760 --> 00:07:48,880 Speaker 1: a lot of credit in the size of his margin 126 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 1: was astonishing. You had been telling me all along, since 127 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:54,320 Speaker 1: you live in Florida now that he was going to 128 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:57,000 Speaker 1: do well. And of course we both known Charlie christ 129 00:07:57,080 --> 00:08:00,760 Speaker 1: since he was originally a Republican before he came an independent, 130 00:08:00,760 --> 00:08:03,400 Speaker 1: that a Democrat. Chris was a week candidate. But so 131 00:08:04,000 --> 00:08:07,680 Speaker 1: the scale of the Desanta's victory was really historic. I 132 00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:11,040 Speaker 1: think it was truly amazing. I mean, I believe he 133 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:15,440 Speaker 1: won in Florida by nineteen percent or more, maybe closer 134 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:19,160 Speaker 1: to twenty percent, and Marco Rubio won the US Senate 135 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:22,680 Speaker 1: race by fifteen or sixteen percentage points as well. When 136 00:08:22,720 --> 00:08:25,400 Speaker 1: you have that at the top of the ticket, you 137 00:08:25,560 --> 00:08:30,360 Speaker 1: certainly have a real head of steam for Republican candidates 138 00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:33,360 Speaker 1: further down the ballot, and you saw that everywhere. But 139 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:36,560 Speaker 1: there were only three counties in Florida that went for 140 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:40,640 Speaker 1: a Democratic candidate, where Charlie Chris, that'd be Broward, which 141 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:43,760 Speaker 1: is the Fort Lauderdale area, and that would be a 142 00:08:43,880 --> 00:08:48,679 Speaker 1: Latua which is the Gainesville area. University of Florida and Tallahassee, 143 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:52,079 Speaker 1: which is the seat of state government, and Florida State 144 00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:55,760 Speaker 1: University and the rest of the state all voted Republican. 145 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:58,640 Speaker 1: And that held pretty true for the US Senate race 146 00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:01,360 Speaker 1: as well. And of course part of the difference was 147 00:09:01,400 --> 00:09:04,640 Speaker 1: that you had with christ a weak candidate who had 148 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:07,360 Speaker 1: switched back and forth and who, frankly in the ads 149 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:09,679 Speaker 1: I saw it just looked old and kind of like 150 00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:12,520 Speaker 1: out of it. But Rubio was up against a first 151 00:09:12,559 --> 00:09:16,080 Speaker 1: class opponent who at least on paper, looked like she 152 00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:19,600 Speaker 1: might beat him. Well, that's right, and she outspent him 153 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:23,120 Speaker 1: by about twenty million dollars in the campaign. In the 154 00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:27,320 Speaker 1: Tampa Bay area where I am, you just endless numbers 155 00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:33,920 Speaker 1: of Deming's commercials that were almost all about abortion or 156 00:09:34,320 --> 00:09:38,760 Speaker 1: Marco's attendance record in committee hearings in the Senate. So 157 00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:42,200 Speaker 1: it was a decisively you know, on the Democrats part, 158 00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:47,600 Speaker 1: it was a decisively negative campaign, and they were doing negative, negative, 159 00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:51,760 Speaker 1: negative advertising, and you had a lot more positive stuff 160 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:55,840 Speaker 1: on the Republican side, both on the Dissatis record and 161 00:09:55,960 --> 00:09:59,199 Speaker 1: the things and the accomplishments that Marco Rubio had gotten 162 00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 1: through the United Stay Senate Rubio, who had been Speaker 163 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:05,360 Speaker 1: of the House and had been an effective senator in 164 00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:07,920 Speaker 1: a presidential candidate, it was a little hard to spend 165 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:10,800 Speaker 1: your energy trying to convince people he didn't show up. 166 00:10:11,240 --> 00:10:14,080 Speaker 1: That's true, you know. I just say it to 'believable 167 00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 1: that people probably think that those mustn't have been very 168 00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:19,280 Speaker 1: important meetings. By the way, it's interesting I've been talking 169 00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:22,040 Speaker 1: with our good friend Randy Evans. More than four hundred 170 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:26,280 Speaker 1: thousand ballots have already been cast in Georgia, and Governor 171 00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:30,439 Speaker 1: camp has clearly weighed in. Randy sent me a picture 172 00:10:30,520 --> 00:10:34,040 Speaker 1: of his precinct that was voting in Smyrna, which is 173 00:10:34,080 --> 00:10:37,440 Speaker 1: an area that's fifty forty five African American, and the 174 00:10:37,640 --> 00:10:42,760 Speaker 1: people voting today were overwhelmingly white. And if that's accurate 175 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:46,520 Speaker 1: and reflected across the state, I think that the African 176 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:50,000 Speaker 1: American turnout is something like eight to ten points below 177 00:10:50,679 --> 00:10:52,720 Speaker 1: what it should be at this point. But we'll see 178 00:10:52,760 --> 00:10:55,199 Speaker 1: what happens. But I also think Walker is being helped 179 00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:58,199 Speaker 1: a great deal by the University of Georgia being the 180 00:10:58,280 --> 00:11:00,680 Speaker 1: number one team in the country. I think that's going 181 00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:04,680 Speaker 1: to be a very interesting election on Tuesday night. No question, 182 00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:08,199 Speaker 1: Georgia is a football state that Hysmotrophy winners that the 183 00:11:08,280 --> 00:11:11,640 Speaker 1: all time greatest do well, you know the last time 184 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:16,240 Speaker 1: they were undefeated Herschel Walker played at University. They were 185 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:20,079 Speaker 1: undefeated this year in the regular season, the first time 186 00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:23,480 Speaker 1: since Herschel. So that plus Vince Dully before he passed 187 00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:27,520 Speaker 1: away and cut a very emotional, very powerful commercial. Vince 188 00:11:27,559 --> 00:11:30,440 Speaker 1: Duey was the great and deeply loved head coach at 189 00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:33,520 Speaker 1: the University of Georgia for whom Herschel played, and I 190 00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:36,440 Speaker 1: think that's also had a positive effect. Well, we'll see 191 00:11:36,440 --> 00:11:39,440 Speaker 1: what happens on election day. He's being outspent by Warnick 192 00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:42,400 Speaker 1: by about three to one by Democratics under warned, but 193 00:11:42,520 --> 00:11:45,839 Speaker 1: as you know, sometimes the ads don't quite matter because 194 00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:48,520 Speaker 1: people just shrug him off. That is true, I mean 195 00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:52,040 Speaker 1: the year will remember back in the nineteen ninety four campaign, 196 00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 1: Republican candidates were outspent overwhelmingly by Democratic candidates for the 197 00:11:57,360 --> 00:11:59,640 Speaker 1: USUS and for the Senate, and we ended up with 198 00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:04,080 Speaker 1: huge victories across the board compared to where we were 199 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:08,560 Speaker 1: after the ninety two elections. That day on September seventeenth, 200 00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:11,040 Speaker 1: nineteen ninety four, when you and I were about to 201 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:14,439 Speaker 1: leave on a trip to go west to do fundraising 202 00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:17,440 Speaker 1: for candidates, and we had Dan Meyer, who as our 203 00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:20,400 Speaker 1: chief of staff and is now Kevin McCarthy's chief of staff, 204 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:23,800 Speaker 1: and Steve Hans are our old friend, and Carrie not 205 00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:27,000 Speaker 1: who was Dick Army's chief of staff. And I said, well, 206 00:12:27,040 --> 00:12:29,520 Speaker 1: are we going to plan for minority leader or are 207 00:12:29,559 --> 00:12:31,800 Speaker 1: we going to plan for a speaker? And you said, well, 208 00:12:31,840 --> 00:12:33,960 Speaker 1: you'd better plan for speaker because you're going to be 209 00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:37,240 Speaker 1: and Meyer promptly said, wait a second, you have to 210 00:12:37,280 --> 00:12:40,080 Speaker 1: explain that before we go any further. So for the 211 00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:42,840 Speaker 1: first hour of the flight, you literally went from Maine 212 00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 1: to Hawaii, and in every single district, by memory, you 213 00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 1: picked fifty three Republican pickups, missing only Rostenkowski in downtown Chicago, 214 00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:57,000 Speaker 1: which none of us thought was plausible. So we ended 215 00:12:57,040 --> 00:12:59,880 Speaker 1: up at fifty four. And I think that's part of 216 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:04,080 Speaker 1: what struck me, that we didn't have that same feeling 217 00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:07,320 Speaker 1: for the battlefield this year. And I don't know why 218 00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:12,080 Speaker 1: I'm not sure either. I think that the issue cluster 219 00:13:13,400 --> 00:13:17,079 Speaker 1: for driving voters turned out to be different than we expected, 220 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:22,640 Speaker 1: or at least the intensity of issues. Republicans in house 221 00:13:22,679 --> 00:13:29,600 Speaker 1: campaigns narrowly led Democrats on the most important issue, which 222 00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:35,280 Speaker 1: was inflation and jobs in the economy, but we lost 223 00:13:35,440 --> 00:13:40,800 Speaker 1: big time on the issues of abortion and Republicans being 224 00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:44,959 Speaker 1: a threat to democracy, and I think part of what 225 00:13:45,240 --> 00:13:50,839 Speaker 1: caused that was that we didn't have any effective answers 226 00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:55,080 Speaker 1: that our candidates were making in both television commercials and 227 00:13:55,160 --> 00:14:00,319 Speaker 1: in public appearances and on digital media for those questions. 228 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:05,600 Speaker 1: And those two questions, both abortion and the democracy question, 229 00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:10,040 Speaker 1: drove younger voters, as well as climate change, which we 230 00:14:10,080 --> 00:14:12,840 Speaker 1: didn't talk about very much either. So I think we 231 00:14:12,880 --> 00:14:16,240 Speaker 1: were not on solid ground on the issues. And an 232 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:19,080 Speaker 1: interesting piece that I picked up in the public opinion 233 00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:23,400 Speaker 1: strategies post election research was for those people who didn't 234 00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:28,680 Speaker 1: think either party had an effective plan for limiting inflation 235 00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:31,960 Speaker 1: and getting it back under control, we lost that vote 236 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:35,880 Speaker 1: by fifty percent, and usually that would go to the 237 00:14:35,880 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 1: opposition party as opposed to the party in power. But 238 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:41,800 Speaker 1: it is one of those things that it has reflected. 239 00:14:42,160 --> 00:14:45,200 Speaker 1: If you can't tell voters what you are for and 240 00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:48,400 Speaker 1: what you are going to do. They probably have a 241 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:51,160 Speaker 1: feeling that you don't know what you're doing, so it's 242 00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:52,760 Speaker 1: sort of like, yeah, it's bad, but you're not going 243 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:56,320 Speaker 1: to make it any better. That's exactly right, which I 244 00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:58,760 Speaker 1: think we kind of lost the feel of in this election. 245 00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:18,600 Speaker 1: Part of what was going on was the Democrats spent 246 00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:22,760 Speaker 1: something like forty four million dollars boosting candidates backed by 247 00:15:22,800 --> 00:15:27,880 Speaker 1: Trump in the primaries, unconsciously trying to get the more 248 00:15:27,920 --> 00:15:31,280 Speaker 1: extreme candidates through so that they would lose the general. 249 00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 1: I don't remember either party ever being that heavily engaged 250 00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:38,520 Speaker 1: in the other parties primaries. Do you not at all? 251 00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:42,520 Speaker 1: We sometimes helped for the weaker candidate to be nominated 252 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:46,680 Speaker 1: on the Democratic side by their forces of hard left 253 00:15:47,040 --> 00:15:52,160 Speaker 1: socialist policies, But in fact we never played around in 254 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:58,400 Speaker 1: Democratic campaigns spending money to elect one candidate over the other, 255 00:15:58,520 --> 00:16:01,520 Speaker 1: or to try to elect the weakest Democratic candidate. That 256 00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:04,520 Speaker 1: was done in Pennsylvania, that was done in Michigan, that 257 00:16:04,640 --> 00:16:07,440 Speaker 1: was done in Arizona, that was done in Illinois. I 258 00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:11,240 Speaker 1: think that the most egregious Frankly, as Governor Pritsker and 259 00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:16,280 Speaker 1: the Democratic Governor's association spent thirty million dollars to defeat 260 00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:20,760 Speaker 1: the moderate Republican candidate, who is the African American mayor 261 00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:24,840 Speaker 1: of Aurora, illinois second largest city, who was the Republican 262 00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:29,600 Speaker 1: establishment's candidate's choice for a state senator from southern Illinois, 263 00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:33,160 Speaker 1: who was virtually unknown by anybody except back by Trump. 264 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:37,360 Speaker 1: As you know, I've followed Illinois politics for years because 265 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 1: I grew up there, and some things are even surprising 266 00:16:40,760 --> 00:16:43,160 Speaker 1: to me that happened in Illinois. It is kind of 267 00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:47,280 Speaker 1: fascinating that you're watching Chicago collapses a city, You're watching 268 00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:50,840 Speaker 1: businesses leave, you're watching crime out of control, but it 269 00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:54,720 Speaker 1: doesn't quite seem to break through. The machine is able 270 00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:59,640 Speaker 1: to withstand reality and to impose its own reality. At 271 00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:01,600 Speaker 1: the same thing happened in New York City, where you 272 00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:04,240 Speaker 1: have all these problems with crime, and yet the governor 273 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:07,760 Speaker 1: got sixty nine percent of the voute. It's remarkable and 274 00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:10,080 Speaker 1: maybe a sign of tribal politics. I mean, I'm not 275 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:12,720 Speaker 1: quite sure how you explain it. One of the things 276 00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:16,640 Speaker 1: which is beyond my comprehension is the scale of money. 277 00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:19,080 Speaker 1: You know, the first time I ran, I think my 278 00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:23,879 Speaker 1: nineteen seventy four campaign was eighty five thousand dollars, and 279 00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:27,840 Speaker 1: my second race in seventy six I think was one 280 00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:31,919 Speaker 1: hundred and sixty five thousand dollars. This year, apparently, the 281 00:17:32,080 --> 00:17:34,920 Speaker 1: estimate is the system will have spent on state and 282 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:40,600 Speaker 1: federal elections sixteen point seven billion dollars. Don't you find 283 00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:43,680 Speaker 1: that just staggering? Yes? I do. Let me just say 284 00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:47,480 Speaker 1: that I think that the political system right now, as 285 00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:51,280 Speaker 1: we know it is a wash in money and if 286 00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:56,719 Speaker 1: you don't have the ability for paid communication, which is 287 00:17:56,880 --> 00:18:01,200 Speaker 1: very very important for Republican candidates because they are so 288 00:18:01,320 --> 00:18:05,440 Speaker 1: often beaten down by the news media that we usually 289 00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:10,919 Speaker 1: shine later in the campaign when our advertising dollars outspend 290 00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:16,199 Speaker 1: Democrat advertising dollars. This time, we were horribly outspent in 291 00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:20,919 Speaker 1: race after race after race, particularly the statewide races for 292 00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:25,720 Speaker 1: US Senate, and the outside money that came in to 293 00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:29,880 Speaker 1: campaigns was on our side, not nearly as great as 294 00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:32,280 Speaker 1: it needed to be, or should have been, if we 295 00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:36,000 Speaker 1: were going to compete effectively in those races. Now, many 296 00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:39,439 Speaker 1: of them were very close, but even in the close races, 297 00:18:39,560 --> 00:18:43,240 Speaker 1: what you did see was the Democratic candidate and their 298 00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:47,960 Speaker 1: coalition groups that were spending money in the campaigns to 299 00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:53,399 Speaker 1: be overwhelmingly where we were overwhelmingly outspent by the Democrats 300 00:18:53,400 --> 00:18:57,199 Speaker 1: in their coalitions. I talked to Adam Lapsalt during the 301 00:18:57,280 --> 00:19:00,919 Speaker 1: long count after election day, and he said that he 302 00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:04,960 Speaker 1: had kept up with the incumbent Democratic senator until about 303 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:08,840 Speaker 1: two weeks out, and that people sort of seemed to 304 00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:12,200 Speaker 1: think he'd won, and so his money dried up and 305 00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:14,800 Speaker 1: she outspent him the last two weeks by about three 306 00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:17,800 Speaker 1: to one, and frankly, the amount he lost by was 307 00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:22,280 Speaker 1: almost certainly to be found in that final assault. On 308 00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:25,000 Speaker 1: the other hand, one of the things that Republicans have 309 00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:27,159 Speaker 1: got to really look at is a number of places 310 00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:30,440 Speaker 1: where people in Pennsylvania is a good example where people 311 00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:33,600 Speaker 1: came out of a primary. Pennsylvania had a very tough primary. 312 00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:38,600 Speaker 1: The Republican who came in second spent forty million dollars 313 00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:42,080 Speaker 1: attacking doctor Oz. When Oz came out of the primary, 314 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:45,200 Speaker 1: he had no money and for about six weeks he 315 00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:49,880 Speaker 1: was dark and had no advertising while Fetterman was defining him. 316 00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 1: And I think that happened in a number of states. 317 00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:56,920 Speaker 1: And I also think the Republican model of saving up 318 00:19:56,920 --> 00:19:59,800 Speaker 1: and coming in in October doesn't make sense if people 319 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:03,119 Speaker 1: started voting in mid September. I mean, in Pennsylvania, by 320 00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:06,120 Speaker 1: the time they had a debate, over six hundred thousand 321 00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:09,320 Speaker 1: people had voted. Let's just talk about this early voting 322 00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:14,880 Speaker 1: phenomenon for a moment and versus election day voting. I 323 00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:20,320 Speaker 1: believe that in the twenty twenty two election, sixty percent 324 00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:24,159 Speaker 1: or more of the people had voted prior to election day. 325 00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:28,399 Speaker 1: And if you have that number of early voting and 326 00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:33,400 Speaker 1: mail in voting, you've got to conduct a campaign that 327 00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:37,040 Speaker 1: works for and works at voters who are voting early 328 00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:39,560 Speaker 1: and voting by mail. I mean, we used to say 329 00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:42,400 Speaker 1: you would remember that it is really important to peak 330 00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:46,720 Speaker 1: on election day. Now it's important in your campaign to 331 00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:52,200 Speaker 1: have reached a plateau by the time early voting begins 332 00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:55,679 Speaker 1: and continues at a pulsing rate all the way up 333 00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:59,560 Speaker 1: until election day. The reality of voting is we did 334 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:03,480 Speaker 1: pretty well in people that made up their mind in 335 00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:06,760 Speaker 1: August and September, and we did a little worse than 336 00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:09,239 Speaker 1: people that were making up their mind in October, and 337 00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:11,480 Speaker 1: we did a lot worse and people that were making 338 00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:14,199 Speaker 1: up their mind in the last seven days. You have 339 00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 1: to be able to do both the mechanics of early 340 00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:22,600 Speaker 1: voting and the campaigning to early voters to make up 341 00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:26,040 Speaker 1: that deficit that occurs in the early voting in the 342 00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:29,560 Speaker 1: mail in voting cycle because we don't have enough voters 343 00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:32,800 Speaker 1: who are voting on election day to make that difference. 344 00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:35,879 Speaker 1: We have to kind of reverse the feeling that you 345 00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:38,960 Speaker 1: shouldn't vote by mail or that you shouldn't vote early, 346 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:42,440 Speaker 1: but rather we need to maximize that as opposed to 347 00:21:42,520 --> 00:22:02,439 Speaker 1: minimize it. You have always talked about as long as 348 00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:06,080 Speaker 1: I've known you, you've had five factors that you think 349 00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:10,439 Speaker 1: are sort of the components to any race. Could you 350 00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:14,240 Speaker 1: talk about those five? Sure, there's five key elements in 351 00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:17,920 Speaker 1: any campaign. The first and most important element is always 352 00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:23,440 Speaker 1: the candidate, because people are judging one person against another, 353 00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:28,320 Speaker 1: and candidate qualities are important as they reach those decisions, 354 00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:32,520 Speaker 1: and so much relies on the candidate. The candidate picking 355 00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:36,120 Speaker 1: the team around him, the candidate he or she raising 356 00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:41,040 Speaker 1: money for the campaign. The candidate's ability to attract voters 357 00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:45,359 Speaker 1: to them personally is critically important. I've always said, and 358 00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:49,280 Speaker 1: maybe I overstate this a bit for the current strength 359 00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:52,320 Speaker 1: of parties, but I've always said that candidates are about 360 00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:55,240 Speaker 1: seventy five percent of the equation in a winning campaign. 361 00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:58,840 Speaker 1: The second thing is organization, and I think that we 362 00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:04,600 Speaker 1: really felt that organizationally this time around. Organization is the 363 00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:08,240 Speaker 1: central nervous system of a campaign. It thinks, it acts, 364 00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:13,040 Speaker 1: it decides, and the deliverers voters. My feeling is that 365 00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:17,199 Speaker 1: in places where we didn't do as well, particularly in 366 00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:22,000 Speaker 1: losing incumbent members of the House, were because we fell 367 00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:26,480 Speaker 1: down organizationally. We fell down in the voter identification and 368 00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:31,560 Speaker 1: voter turnout operation. In states where we did well with that, 369 00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:35,399 Speaker 1: for example, here in Florida, Governor de Santis talked about 370 00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:40,600 Speaker 1: his campaign knocking on two million doors. Well, you didn't 371 00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:43,080 Speaker 1: hear about that going on in many other places. I 372 00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:45,800 Speaker 1: would say my other favorite state, which is Iowa, where 373 00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:49,840 Speaker 1: there was a huge victory not only for the governor, 374 00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:53,240 Speaker 1: but also a big victory for Chuck Grassley, and a 375 00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:56,960 Speaker 1: big victory in sweeping all four congressional races, and we 376 00:23:57,119 --> 00:24:01,920 Speaker 1: turned out to forty year democratic inc in the attorney 377 00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:05,080 Speaker 1: general's race and in the state Treasurer's race, and we 378 00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:07,840 Speaker 1: got to a two thirds majority in the state Senate, 379 00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:12,680 Speaker 1: which means that all of Governor Reynold's appointments only need 380 00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:17,040 Speaker 1: Republican approval to be set for boards and commissions in 381 00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:20,680 Speaker 1: the state and for department heads, but big victories were 382 00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:24,920 Speaker 1: rolled up not only by good candidates, but strong organization 383 00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:28,399 Speaker 1: that turned out voters. The third key element is always 384 00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:31,240 Speaker 1: fundraising in the finance side of it, and why you 385 00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:34,879 Speaker 1: don't need to have the most money in any campaign. 386 00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:37,720 Speaker 1: You certainly do have to have an adequate amount of 387 00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:40,880 Speaker 1: money to get your message out, and being outspent by 388 00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:44,320 Speaker 1: two to one in campaigns, particularly for Senate and for 389 00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:49,880 Speaker 1: governor across the country were a huge detriment to Republican opportunities. 390 00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:52,280 Speaker 1: And the fourth thing is that you have to have 391 00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:56,120 Speaker 1: a believable message of contrast with the candidates that you're 392 00:24:56,200 --> 00:25:00,720 Speaker 1: running against, and their message of contrast on abortion and 393 00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:06,919 Speaker 1: democracy trumped our message for the most part on the economy, inflation, 394 00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:12,720 Speaker 1: and jobs. The believability of our candidates on those issues 395 00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:16,520 Speaker 1: I think caused us to have this narrowest of election 396 00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:20,560 Speaker 1: majorities in the US House when you looked at the 397 00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:24,960 Speaker 1: general political climate and thought historically we would do much 398 00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:28,399 Speaker 1: much better than that. And finally, the fifth element is 399 00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:31,639 Speaker 1: how you get to your base of support, and the 400 00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:36,000 Speaker 1: base is pretty important, and we turned out Republican base voters. 401 00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:39,760 Speaker 1: I think we lost independent voters or didn't win them 402 00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:44,960 Speaker 1: nearly as strongly as we had in previous campaigns. For example, 403 00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:49,000 Speaker 1: in twenty ten, we won independence by a twenty point margin. 404 00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:53,200 Speaker 1: In twenty twenty two, we won independence by a two 405 00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:55,639 Speaker 1: point margin. Can we go back and talk just for 406 00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:58,359 Speaker 1: a secondbout governor realms Because I know how well you 407 00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:01,560 Speaker 1: know Iwa, having been the iCal director there and having 408 00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:04,800 Speaker 1: been deeply involved with the University of Iowa. It seemed 409 00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:08,200 Speaker 1: to me that she really grew in office and became 410 00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:11,840 Speaker 1: a dramatically more effective and more powerful leader than you 411 00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:14,520 Speaker 1: would have guessed when she first became governor. That is 412 00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:18,280 Speaker 1: very true. Remember, she was elected by the narrowest margin 413 00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:22,680 Speaker 1: in the history of Iowa governors races in twenty eighteen. 414 00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:26,840 Speaker 1: She was elected by about twenty four thousand votes over 415 00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:32,560 Speaker 1: Fred Hubbell, the Democratic candidate. She not only came out 416 00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:37,239 Speaker 1: with strong programs for the state and reforms for the 417 00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:40,720 Speaker 1: state during her first term, but she was a leader 418 00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:45,119 Speaker 1: in the fight for school choice in Iowa. This is 419 00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:48,080 Speaker 1: a very interesting thing and shows a little bit about 420 00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:52,320 Speaker 1: choosing your fights and how important they were. There were 421 00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:59,160 Speaker 1: five Republican state senators who opposed her school choice program. 422 00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:05,960 Speaker 1: She found candidates to oppose those five incumbent Republican candidates 423 00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:09,800 Speaker 1: on the school choice issue, and she beat all five 424 00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:13,840 Speaker 1: of them. She now has two thirds control of the 425 00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,840 Speaker 1: state Senate, and there's going to be a very strong 426 00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:21,480 Speaker 1: school choice bill passed in the Iowa Legislature, probably in 427 00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,600 Speaker 1: the very first part of the session, because we increased 428 00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:28,119 Speaker 1: numbers in the House of Representatives there as well. But 429 00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:33,200 Speaker 1: that kind of demonstration of political muscle within your own 430 00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:38,360 Speaker 1: party and political strength based on an issue rather than 431 00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:41,240 Speaker 1: based on personality is one of the things that led 432 00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:45,960 Speaker 1: her to be such a strong candidate for reelection and 433 00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:48,760 Speaker 1: why she racked up the margin of votes that she 434 00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:52,720 Speaker 1: actually did. One of the things that struck me that 435 00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:55,919 Speaker 1: I was so positive about the size of our victory 436 00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:58,919 Speaker 1: that even having one control of the House and having 437 00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:02,360 Speaker 1: one governorship's by huge margins, it didn't quite feel as 438 00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:04,960 Speaker 1: good as what I had thought it would. So for 439 00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:06,920 Speaker 1: the first week I was a little bit down, as 440 00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:08,760 Speaker 1: you know, because you and I talked about it. But 441 00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:11,560 Speaker 1: it seems to me when you actually look at the 442 00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:15,399 Speaker 1: results and you look at us having gained something like 443 00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:17,560 Speaker 1: three and a half million extra votes for the House, 444 00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:20,760 Speaker 1: and you look at the size of victories like Iowa 445 00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:23,640 Speaker 1: and Florida, and then you look at what happened where 446 00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:28,320 Speaker 1: Compared to twenty eighteen, the Hispanic vote for the Republicans 447 00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:32,359 Speaker 1: jumped ten points, the Asian vote jumped seventeen points, African 448 00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:35,040 Speaker 1: American vote jumped about four points, And in fact, I 449 00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:38,640 Speaker 1: saw one number that suggested that African American males nineteen 450 00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:42,760 Speaker 1: percent had voted for Republicans. I mean there are underlying 451 00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:46,360 Speaker 1: patterns there that mean that twenty twenty four could in 452 00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:48,960 Speaker 1: fact be a pretty good year. Well, I totally agree 453 00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:52,120 Speaker 1: with that. At any time you can almost double the 454 00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:56,800 Speaker 1: number of black voters that we receive and increase Hispanic 455 00:28:56,840 --> 00:29:01,400 Speaker 1: and Asian voters. That means that you are building a 456 00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:06,920 Speaker 1: more diversified Republican party. And I think the opportunity with 457 00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:12,120 Speaker 1: us not controlling both houses of Congress allows a better 458 00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:16,400 Speaker 1: opportunity to win the presidential election. You will remember we 459 00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:20,240 Speaker 1: didn't win the presidential election in nineteen ninety six after 460 00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:23,360 Speaker 1: having substantial majorities in both the House and the Senate, 461 00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:27,280 Speaker 1: and the same was true in twenty twelve when Barack 462 00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:31,040 Speaker 1: Obama was reelected. Even though we picked up sixty seven 463 00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:34,560 Speaker 1: seats in the House and increased our numbers in the Senate, 464 00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:39,800 Speaker 1: I think that the future opportunity for Republicans and Republican 465 00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:44,280 Speaker 1: candidates is very good. For the twenty twenty four election cycles. 466 00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:46,880 Speaker 1: In the Senate, the numbers are clearly on our side. 467 00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:50,080 Speaker 1: There are twenty three Democratic senators up and I believe 468 00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:54,120 Speaker 1: like eleven Republican senators of Senate seats up for reelection, 469 00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:57,640 Speaker 1: so that votes well. I think the opportunity to increase 470 00:29:57,720 --> 00:30:01,000 Speaker 1: seats in the House votes well. Biden is not going 471 00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:04,000 Speaker 1: to get any more popular. I mean, he's also said, 472 00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:06,320 Speaker 1: you know that he made no mistakes and there was 473 00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:09,560 Speaker 1: nothing wrong in the country, while fifty five percent of 474 00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:12,400 Speaker 1: the people thought he was doing a terrible job and 475 00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:15,840 Speaker 1: only forty one percent approved of him. I think they 476 00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:20,640 Speaker 1: are in a statist pattern of being as far left 477 00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:23,400 Speaker 1: as they possibly can and the country simply isn't there. 478 00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:27,400 Speaker 1: And with the presidential campaign that has geared around the 479 00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:29,920 Speaker 1: things that we've looked at new in building the new 480 00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:35,280 Speaker 1: American majority and the opportunity to reach out to conservative 481 00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:40,800 Speaker 1: Democrats and Republicans generally, as well as increasing our numbers 482 00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:45,400 Speaker 1: with Blacks, Hispanics and Asians. Provides a great opportunity for 483 00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:48,680 Speaker 1: the party for twenty twenty four. How it plays out 484 00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:51,800 Speaker 1: is yet to be seen, but I'm optimistic about the future. 485 00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:54,560 Speaker 1: Then it struck me the work we've done on the 486 00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:57,880 Speaker 1: American New Majority project, which people can go to at 487 00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:03,040 Speaker 1: America's New Majority dot com. The fact is we have 488 00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:06,200 Speaker 1: a cultural majority that's huge, but it has not been 489 00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:09,600 Speaker 1: translated into a political majority. It's one of the fascinating 490 00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:11,640 Speaker 1: things about where we are right now as a country, 491 00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:16,480 Speaker 1: the tension between what people believe and what the political 492 00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:19,680 Speaker 1: system currently reflects, the power of money and the news 493 00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:22,760 Speaker 1: media and outside groups, etc. I think it's going to 494 00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:25,680 Speaker 1: make the next few years very very fascinating, and I 495 00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:28,920 Speaker 1: think that they're going to be huge opportunities for people 496 00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:32,040 Speaker 1: who are willing, as De Santis was, and frankly, look 497 00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:35,720 Speaker 1: around the country of Republican governors. They were remarkably successful 498 00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:40,280 Speaker 1: at pulling together the potential cultural majority and turning them 499 00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:43,000 Speaker 1: into a political majority, and many of them won by 500 00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:46,240 Speaker 1: very big margins, which I think vodes very very well 501 00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:48,680 Speaker 1: for us. And as you said, I think the Democrats 502 00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:52,000 Speaker 1: will continue to keep going to the left because they're 503 00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:54,880 Speaker 1: true believers, and they got no signals out of this 504 00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:58,080 Speaker 1: election that they had to change, whereas both Clinton and 505 00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:01,080 Speaker 1: ninety four and Obama in two thousand and ten got 506 00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:04,000 Speaker 1: messages and both of them said that they had been shellacked. 507 00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:05,800 Speaker 1: I mean, both of them were very honest the day 508 00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:07,960 Speaker 1: after the election that they had a lot to learn 509 00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:11,000 Speaker 1: and they felt a little chagrined. And clearly Biden in 510 00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:13,600 Speaker 1: his one hour long victory speech didn't think he had 511 00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:15,560 Speaker 1: to learn a darn thing and didn't plan to learn 512 00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:18,680 Speaker 1: a darn thing. So it'll be fascinating. Well, I hope 513 00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:22,120 Speaker 1: that we will be able to continue our partnership, and 514 00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:24,200 Speaker 1: I hope maybe on occasion you can come back and 515 00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:27,959 Speaker 1: share more with us as the political season evolves in 516 00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:32,120 Speaker 1: ways that we currently can't imagine. Thanks for the opportunity, dude, 517 00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:37,560 Speaker 1: and I'd love to do it. Thank you to my guests, 518 00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:40,200 Speaker 1: Joe gay Lord. You can read more about the midterm 519 00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:44,120 Speaker 1: election outcome and analysis on our show page at newtsworld 520 00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:48,440 Speaker 1: dot com. Nischeworld is produced by Gagwistreet sixty and iHeartMedia. 521 00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:52,560 Speaker 1: Our executive producer is Garnsey Slow. Our producer is Rebecca 522 00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:56,320 Speaker 1: Howe and our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for 523 00:32:56,360 --> 00:33:00,040 Speaker 1: the show was created by Steve Penley. Special thanks of 524 00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:03,280 Speaker 1: the team at Gingwich three sixty. If you've been enjoying Newtsworld, 525 00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:06,320 Speaker 1: I hope you'll go to Apple Podcast and both rate 526 00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:09,320 Speaker 1: us with five stars and give us a review so 527 00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:12,880 Speaker 1: others can learn what it's all about. Right now, listeners 528 00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:15,600 Speaker 1: of news World can sign up from my three free 529 00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:19,440 Speaker 1: weekly columns at Gingwich three sixty dot com slash newsletter. 530 00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:21,920 Speaker 1: I'm Newt Gingrich and this is news World.