1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:03,920 Speaker 1: Hi, everybody, Chuck here, Good morning or good afternoon. Wherever 2 00:00:03,920 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: this finds you on your Saturday. I hope you're enjoying yourself, 3 00:00:07,600 --> 00:00:10,080 Speaker 1: and I have a nice selection for you. From July 4 00:00:10,160 --> 00:00:14,000 Speaker 1: two th eleven for this Saturday select was Malthis right 5 00:00:14,080 --> 00:00:18,079 Speaker 1: about carrying capacity? What is what is that all about? 6 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:21,920 Speaker 1: You say, what am I talking about? Who is this? Malthis? Well, 7 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:24,079 Speaker 1: all the answers are right here. It's a really interesting one. 8 00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 1: And uh and here's what I say. If you don't 9 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 1: know what any of those words mean aside firm was 10 00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:34,000 Speaker 1: right and about, then listen right now because you're about 11 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 1: to learn something cool. July nine eleven was Malthis right 12 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:45,600 Speaker 1: about carrying capacity. Welcome to Stuff you Should Know from 13 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:54,400 Speaker 1: House Stuff Works dot com. Hey, and welcome to the podcast. 14 00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:56,960 Speaker 1: I'm Josh Clark with me as always as Charles W. 15 00:00:57,120 --> 00:01:01,880 Speaker 1: Chuck Bryant sitting across from me. Um, and that makes 16 00:01:01,920 --> 00:01:05,440 Speaker 1: the stuff you should know the podcast. There you go. 17 00:01:06,000 --> 00:01:09,679 Speaker 1: The only incarnation thus far is is there somebody fast 18 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 1: forwarding through this part right now? Huh? Yes? So Chuck? Right? 19 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:18,360 Speaker 1: It is Chuck? Yes. Still have you noticed how often 20 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:23,000 Speaker 1: I say right, yeah, it's mind numbing. Plus someone will 21 00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 1: right in and say, do you know usually write all 22 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:28,880 Speaker 1: the time? Um, it sounds like I'm eating hard candy 23 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:31,160 Speaker 1: all the time. I know that's not the case. You've 24 00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:34,240 Speaker 1: never eaten anything in here. I can attest to that. Uh. Yeah, 25 00:01:34,280 --> 00:01:40,440 Speaker 1: I'm overly celebratory. Okay, yes, chuck. Uh. As you know, 26 00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 1: I was a student of anthropology, still consider myself sure 27 00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:48,559 Speaker 1: such um And I first came upon this term called 28 00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 1: carrying capacity when I was I took this life changing 29 00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:57,040 Speaker 1: anthropology class all right, uh, and I don't remember the 30 00:01:57,080 --> 00:01:59,360 Speaker 1: teacher's name anymore, but he was awesome. He introduced me 31 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:03,000 Speaker 1: to probably my favorite article or essay of all time. Uh, 32 00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:05,360 Speaker 1: the worst mistake in the history of the human race, 33 00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:10,080 Speaker 1: right by Jared Diamond. Awesome stuff. Um any dustin Diamond 34 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:13,840 Speaker 1: by Mike Diamond, Okay, by Jared Diamond, the guy who 35 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:17,280 Speaker 1: wrote Collapse and Guns, Germs and Steel and stuff. Um, 36 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:20,400 Speaker 1: that's required reading in my opinion. I just think you 37 00:02:20,440 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 1: should that that essay not necessarily as books. Um. But 38 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:27,520 Speaker 1: this I was also introduced to carrying capacity. And this 39 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:30,079 Speaker 1: there's this really cool video he showed us to get 40 00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:31,960 Speaker 1: the point across. And it's just a map of the 41 00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:36,000 Speaker 1: world right, and it's um it's there's red dots. It 42 00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:39,320 Speaker 1: shows population growth and each red dot equals I think 43 00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:42,200 Speaker 1: a million people. And so it starts out in Africa, 44 00:02:42,520 --> 00:02:46,800 Speaker 1: in uh Ethiopia, I believe, the cradle of humanity, and 45 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:49,760 Speaker 1: it starts there and all, you know, very slowly, there's 46 00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:52,360 Speaker 1: like a it's time elapse obviously, so the years go 47 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:56,959 Speaker 1: by like that, and um uh, like the red dots 48 00:02:57,000 --> 00:02:59,959 Speaker 1: start appearing very slowly, start moving out of Africa, spread 49 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 1: in the Asia, to Europe, all that, and then um 50 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:06,799 Speaker 1: it starts to to pop up around North America and 51 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:09,600 Speaker 1: South America, and then all of a sudden you get 52 00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:13,919 Speaker 1: to the I think like the sixteenth century, maybe a 53 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:16,400 Speaker 1: little later the Industrial Revolution, and all of a sudden, 54 00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:19,640 Speaker 1: this map just goes red and it's really jarring. It 55 00:03:19,760 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 1: really gets to point across it like how quickly population 56 00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:28,760 Speaker 1: has grown in the world and the impacts of it. 57 00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 1: You know, That's why he coupled this with caring capacity, 58 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:34,079 Speaker 1: because it's like, well, yeah, population and growth, who cares. 59 00:03:34,320 --> 00:03:37,200 Speaker 1: Then you say, oh, well, there's a limit to the 60 00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:42,080 Speaker 1: amount of resources we have. Um. And that limit is 61 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 1: called the carrying capacity of Earth, meaning how much Earth 62 00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:50,640 Speaker 1: can sustain human life, and there's supposedly a point to it, right, Yeah, 63 00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:54,119 Speaker 1: I got some stats. There's my intro. Take it from here. 64 00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 1: Here's a couple of stats, Josh, the United Nations population 65 00:03:57,400 --> 00:04:04,640 Speaker 1: Division estimates, because five babies are born every second, and 66 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:09,480 Speaker 1: then you go like crying all that poop, the world 67 00:04:09,640 --> 00:04:11,760 Speaker 1: is going to have seven billion people by years in 68 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:15,360 Speaker 1: they think seven billion. Yeah, we're at six point nine 69 00:04:15,400 --> 00:04:17,880 Speaker 1: two and change right now. Yeah, so I mean we're close. 70 00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:21,320 Speaker 1: And um to to illustrate your point there about the 71 00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:26,080 Speaker 1: red dots spreading like a disease, that is humans, um, 72 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:29,440 Speaker 1: fewer than a billion people in eighteen hundred, Yeah, it 73 00:04:29,520 --> 00:04:32,240 Speaker 1: was like eight hundred million, eight hundred dude. That mean 74 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:34,440 Speaker 1: it seems like ancient history, but it ain't that long ago. 75 00:04:35,360 --> 00:04:38,640 Speaker 1: Three billion people in nineteen sixty and only six billion 76 00:04:38,640 --> 00:04:43,000 Speaker 1: people as recently as nine Between nineteen fifty, chuck in, 77 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:48,080 Speaker 1: the global population doubled from two point five billion to 78 00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:52,760 Speaker 1: five billion. That is crasas and behind this, that's what 79 00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:57,279 Speaker 1: they call exponential growth. It's not just adding like a 80 00:04:57,320 --> 00:05:01,000 Speaker 1: million people a year, slow and study you're adding a 81 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:04,839 Speaker 1: fixed number. It's you're adding you know, populations, doubling in 82 00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 1: forty years. That's exponential growth. And that is the basis 83 00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 1: of what a guy named Thomas Robert Malthus uh in 84 00:05:13,360 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 1: an eighteenth century English clergyman, predicted in his essay UM, 85 00:05:19,240 --> 00:05:22,960 Speaker 1: an essay on the principle of population, basically saying human 86 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:26,680 Speaker 1: growth is exponential. We have a big problem because the 87 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 1: growth of food is not. It's linear. It's right, and 88 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:34,240 Speaker 1: we're in trouble eventually. And he was fairly controversial at 89 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:37,159 Speaker 1: the time. He was debated by a lot of people, 90 00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:40,600 Speaker 1: one of which was this dude named William Godwin, and 91 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:43,280 Speaker 1: he had a theory called the perfectibility of society, which 92 00:05:43,279 --> 00:05:46,279 Speaker 1: is basically, no did we we're humans and we no 93 00:05:46,320 --> 00:05:48,920 Speaker 1: matter how much we grow, we will be able to 94 00:05:49,240 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 1: counter that with advances in technology to allow us to grow. 95 00:05:53,400 --> 00:05:57,400 Speaker 1: So they debated like crazy. Godwin subsequently was one of 96 00:05:57,400 --> 00:06:04,919 Speaker 1: the first proponents of anarchism, and Malthus talked about eugenics 97 00:06:04,960 --> 00:06:07,520 Speaker 1: way back then before it was eugenics. He said, I 98 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 1: could see something like this being possible, but he said 99 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:12,599 Speaker 1: it is probably not something we should do. And he 100 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:17,280 Speaker 1: also incidentally was the one of the first people to 101 00:06:17,640 --> 00:06:21,960 Speaker 1: uh to support or popularize the theory, the economic theory 102 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:25,400 Speaker 1: of rent. Really yeah, well he was just all over 103 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:27,359 Speaker 1: the place, wouldn't he. Well, but all kind of ties 104 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:30,120 Speaker 1: into population because eugenics tied into it because he was 105 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:35,479 Speaker 1: talking about controlling population and rent he theorized was only 106 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:40,320 Speaker 1: possible with a surplus of resources, um, which allows you 107 00:06:40,360 --> 00:06:42,800 Speaker 1: to own a second place and rent it, I guess, 108 00:06:43,080 --> 00:06:45,279 Speaker 1: or rent a tool or you know whatever people rented 109 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:49,080 Speaker 1: back then. So what Mouths is talking about is generally 110 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:54,920 Speaker 1: classified as economics, yeah right, but it's also it stretches 111 00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:58,080 Speaker 1: into all sorts of dirty, nasty little areas like greed 112 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:04,480 Speaker 1: um at college, population control, So eugenics, um, family planning, 113 00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 1: abortion and fanticide, all sorts of stuff um. That has 114 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:13,800 Speaker 1: a lot of implications, far reaching implications, right, And so 115 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:15,840 Speaker 1: I didn't realize that there was somebody who was a 116 00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:19,280 Speaker 1: contemporary of him that argued, like, no, humans will use 117 00:07:19,320 --> 00:07:23,960 Speaker 1: technology to outstrip, to outpace this math Mathusian curse is 118 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:25,680 Speaker 1: what it's called. Right, Yeah, there was more than God 119 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:27,520 Speaker 1: when there was a few people too. I didn't realize 120 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:29,560 Speaker 1: that it was at the time, but I know that 121 00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:32,320 Speaker 1: over the centuries people have been like Mouths. That was 122 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:34,960 Speaker 1: a great idea. But you really missed the mark, and 123 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:37,880 Speaker 1: we're going to use you as an example of how 124 00:07:37,960 --> 00:07:42,120 Speaker 1: badly somebody can can get it wrong, right, Because it 125 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:45,280 Speaker 1: wasn't just technology. There's another aspect of it called the 126 00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 1: demographic transition, which is basically as um, as we get 127 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:53,560 Speaker 1: better with this technology. Uh, one of the things we 128 00:07:53,680 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 1: come up with this birth control um and while we're 129 00:07:57,960 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 1: while our mortality rates are are lowering, so to our 130 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:06,320 Speaker 1: fertility rates. Right, and we eventually come to this thing 131 00:08:06,440 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 1: called the replacement rate, which is two point one children 132 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:15,440 Speaker 1: per household leads to zero population growth, right, and I 133 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:19,840 Speaker 1: think they set in Western Europe the number was one 134 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:23,920 Speaker 1: point four in the late nineties. Like, some people are 135 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:27,360 Speaker 1: afraid that that Mauthis was correct at this point, and 136 00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:30,240 Speaker 1: other people say that like in Europe and Asia they 137 00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:31,960 Speaker 1: worry about the opposite because you know, they have the 138 00:08:31,960 --> 00:08:34,400 Speaker 1: problem over there that they're not enough young people to 139 00:08:34,440 --> 00:08:37,080 Speaker 1: take care of the retirees one day. Exactly, it's negative 140 00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:41,920 Speaker 1: population growth. So who's right they do estimate? Um, who's 141 00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:43,640 Speaker 1: who they is? I don't know, but it just said 142 00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:48,040 Speaker 1: researchers estimate that population is not gonna level off until 143 00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:51,160 Speaker 1: mid century, at about nine billion. Well that's at best 144 00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:53,760 Speaker 1: if that's if we do level off, we could continue 145 00:08:53,800 --> 00:08:56,160 Speaker 1: to keep going the rate we're at now, the replacement 146 00:08:56,240 --> 00:08:58,520 Speaker 1: rate at least to zero population growth, which is two 147 00:08:58,559 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 1: point one. Right now, we're at a two point six 148 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:05,199 Speaker 1: worldwide and with Africa, UM skewing us the other way. 149 00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 1: SUBSI in Africa has about a five point one fertility rate, 150 00:09:09,559 --> 00:09:12,480 Speaker 1: which means for every household there's five point one children born. 151 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:15,320 Speaker 1: Does that point one child? He always feels so bad 152 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:19,560 Speaker 1: for him. It's a knee down, you know, on one leg. Um. 153 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:22,760 Speaker 1: But the uh, if we can get to zero population 154 00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 1: growth and we're not going to really have to deal 155 00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:28,840 Speaker 1: with the Malthusian curse possibly ever, but we're not, then 156 00:09:28,880 --> 00:09:32,280 Speaker 1: that's that's But that's one thing that's um that Mouths 157 00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:35,520 Speaker 1: didn't account for is things like as society has become 158 00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:39,960 Speaker 1: more educated, fertility rates tend to drop dramatically. So that's 159 00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:42,200 Speaker 1: that's another way to put it off too. So he 160 00:09:42,240 --> 00:09:44,079 Speaker 1: was scoffed at, Like you said, there's a lot of 161 00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:46,520 Speaker 1: people out there who think he was he missed the mark. 162 00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:49,959 Speaker 1: But UM people have been doing a little bit of 163 00:09:50,040 --> 00:09:54,440 Speaker 1: math lately and have figured out that UM it's entirely 164 00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:58,080 Speaker 1: possible that he's right, that somewhere down the line he's right. Yeah, 165 00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:00,880 Speaker 1: And at the basis we should say, of mouths, this 166 00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:04,839 Speaker 1: whole thing is a lack of food and water really, 167 00:10:05,640 --> 00:10:07,960 Speaker 1: and we need air, food, water, shelter and all that stuff. 168 00:10:08,240 --> 00:10:12,480 Speaker 1: But what he was mainly centered on was eventually the 169 00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:15,680 Speaker 1: food growth will not match up with the population growth. 170 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:19,400 Speaker 1: And a billion people go hungry every day already. So 171 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:25,120 Speaker 1: so I might argue that that's already the case. So 172 00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:33,640 Speaker 1: let's talk about caring capacity. Chuck, Yeah, this is cool. Um. 173 00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:37,559 Speaker 1: If we had not transitioned, which we have, which kind 174 00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:43,120 Speaker 1: of proves the um positive positivists camp um that we 175 00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:47,400 Speaker 1: can be technological. If we hadn't transitioned from hunter gatherer 176 00:10:47,440 --> 00:10:51,320 Speaker 1: to agriculture UM, the caring capacity of Earth would have 177 00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:53,480 Speaker 1: been reached out about a hundred million people a long 178 00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:56,760 Speaker 1: time ago. Yes, because there's just so many animals running 179 00:10:56,760 --> 00:10:58,840 Speaker 1: around that we can kill. There's only so many berries 180 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:01,440 Speaker 1: that are going to occur in actually on the on 181 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:06,960 Speaker 1: the vine, right. But we did transition to agriculture UM 182 00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:10,439 Speaker 1: before we hit the hundred million mark, possibly maybe not 183 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:15,920 Speaker 1: um farming, and we we began to use technology which 184 00:11:15,960 --> 00:11:20,640 Speaker 1: is growing crops to feed ourselves. And then we reached 185 00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:24,640 Speaker 1: another point, right um, where we hit what was called 186 00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:30,199 Speaker 1: the green revolution, remember that, Yeah, normal barolog um where 187 00:11:30,240 --> 00:11:32,079 Speaker 1: there was a lot of people who are saying about 188 00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:35,000 Speaker 1: a billion people are going to die because we are 189 00:11:35,040 --> 00:11:38,040 Speaker 1: no longer We're not going to be able to provide 190 00:11:38,040 --> 00:11:41,439 Speaker 1: food for all the people here. Um, we've we've come 191 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:44,080 Speaker 1: up with great vaccines and all this other technology that's 192 00:11:44,400 --> 00:11:48,120 Speaker 1: lowering the mortality rate, but that just means people are 193 00:11:48,160 --> 00:11:50,559 Speaker 1: living longer and they need food longer over the over 194 00:11:50,600 --> 00:11:53,760 Speaker 1: their lifespan. Right, so what are we gonna do? Norman 195 00:11:53,800 --> 00:11:55,960 Speaker 1: Borlog comes along and says, you know what we're gonna 196 00:11:56,000 --> 00:12:01,200 Speaker 1: doing exactly, tapioca pudding for everybody, for the elderly, and 197 00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:03,920 Speaker 1: a care bear in every garage. Now they'll go ahead 198 00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:05,400 Speaker 1: with it with what he said because he was a genius. 199 00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:08,079 Speaker 1: He said, we're gonna maximize the yield that we get 200 00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:10,679 Speaker 1: out of arable land. We're not just gonna plant some 201 00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:13,200 Speaker 1: seeds and be like, hope you grow. We're going to 202 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:17,080 Speaker 1: apply tons of pesticide, tons of fertilizer, and we're going 203 00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:21,120 Speaker 1: to squeeze corn the size of your torso out of 204 00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:26,000 Speaker 1: every every plant. Right, Yeah, he wasn't some like awful 205 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:28,640 Speaker 1: mad That sound makes him sound like some awful mad scientists, 206 00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:31,600 Speaker 1: though in the eyes of a lot of environmental let's 207 00:12:31,640 --> 00:12:34,360 Speaker 1: he he well, I mean think about all the runoff, 208 00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:37,760 Speaker 1: all the soil depletion. Also, didn't he also win a 209 00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:41,520 Speaker 1: Nobel Prize? Sure? Yeah, he's credited with saving that billion 210 00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:44,080 Speaker 1: people that were predicted to starve because he came in 211 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:46,640 Speaker 1: just in time because the Earth would have reached this 212 00:12:46,720 --> 00:12:51,080 Speaker 1: carring capacity for agriculture. So we've had at least two 213 00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:53,960 Speaker 1: different events where we were able to leap forward through 214 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:57,760 Speaker 1: technology and avoid the Malthusian curse. Right, yes, So there 215 00:12:57,800 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 1: are people out there who say, well, you know, we're 216 00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:02,640 Speaker 1: we're we're going to avoid it again, but what will 217 00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:05,000 Speaker 1: that be? Sure and come up with another one? So 218 00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, Chuck, we would have hit the carring capacity 219 00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:11,360 Speaker 1: a hundred million where we hunter gatherers, right man, what 220 00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:14,560 Speaker 1: are the predictions now? Well, they say, and this is 221 00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:17,160 Speaker 1: where what I think is really interesting and completely sad, 222 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:20,920 Speaker 1: is that we have a potential carring capacity of two 223 00:13:20,920 --> 00:13:24,560 Speaker 1: billion to forty billion. Were clearly past the two So 224 00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:27,000 Speaker 1: one might ask how can it be that big of 225 00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:31,320 Speaker 1: a range. And the answer is lifestyle. And here's a 226 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 1: very sad statu. If the entire earth live like middle 227 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:38,560 Speaker 1: class Americans, not the super rich, who you know, probably 228 00:13:38,559 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 1: consume more energy and the like than your average human 229 00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:46,200 Speaker 1: just regular middle class American folks consume about three point 230 00:13:46,280 --> 00:13:51,080 Speaker 1: three times the subsistence level of food and two hundred 231 00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:54,600 Speaker 1: and fifty times the subsistence level of water clean water. 232 00:13:55,280 --> 00:13:57,400 Speaker 1: And that means the Earth, if we ever everyone was 233 00:13:57,440 --> 00:14:00,280 Speaker 1: like us, the Earth could only support about two billion people. 234 00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 1: So what's going on is of the Earth is consuming 235 00:14:05,400 --> 00:14:08,199 Speaker 1: I don't have the percentage, but the other seventy of 236 00:14:08,200 --> 00:14:11,400 Speaker 1: the earth is left with what's left, which is really 237 00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:16,560 Speaker 1: really it's just a it's a uh disparity in the 238 00:14:16,600 --> 00:14:19,760 Speaker 1: allocation of resources and what's consumed. So that's why it 239 00:14:19,800 --> 00:14:21,960 Speaker 1: can be a range of two billion to forty billion 240 00:14:22,040 --> 00:14:24,880 Speaker 1: because of the different lifestyles. If if everyone lives like 241 00:14:24,920 --> 00:14:27,600 Speaker 1: there would be plenty for everyone and no one would 242 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:31,720 Speaker 1: be starving. No, if everybody lived like we would all 243 00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:37,040 Speaker 1: we would be like sorry, well the um Yeah, that's 244 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:39,280 Speaker 1: that's where the forty billion number comes in. I've seen 245 00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:41,080 Speaker 1: thirty and i've seen forty on the high end for 246 00:14:41,120 --> 00:14:43,840 Speaker 1: the carrying capacity, and that's where every square inch of 247 00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:47,400 Speaker 1: arable land is being cultivated to its maximum yield. And 248 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:49,720 Speaker 1: all people live in high rises that are as high 249 00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:52,680 Speaker 1: as we can build them right now, right um. And 250 00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:58,800 Speaker 1: we're mining UM asteroids for h for UM minerals and 251 00:14:59,040 --> 00:15:02,040 Speaker 1: all that we're we're no longer going, we're no longer 252 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:06,440 Speaker 1: going to the Earth. We're going into outer space. Possibly. 253 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 1: I don't think that that shouldn't have started about fifty 254 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:13,360 Speaker 1: years ago, right um. But the that forty billion prediction 255 00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:18,119 Speaker 1: is um based on the absolute minimum requirements, and everybody, 256 00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:21,800 Speaker 1: forty billion people living on the planet UM, all using 257 00:15:21,840 --> 00:15:25,320 Speaker 1: the minimum amount, which is four liters of water a 258 00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:30,200 Speaker 1: year and about three ms of food a year, mostly grains. 259 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:34,320 Speaker 1: And you can basically kiss meat goodbye because we need 260 00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:37,480 Speaker 1: that land to grow our grains rather than grow grains 261 00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:39,920 Speaker 1: to feed cows, which is another way that the West 262 00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:44,280 Speaker 1: consumes resources more than more than its fair share, through 263 00:15:44,280 --> 00:15:47,480 Speaker 1: a meat rich diet, which is you're not only eating 264 00:15:47,520 --> 00:15:50,720 Speaker 1: the meat, you're eating the grains that the meat eight. Right, 265 00:15:51,160 --> 00:15:58,080 Speaker 1: So Chuck, let me ask you something. If you had 266 00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:00,800 Speaker 1: if you went home and turned on your tap and 267 00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:03,240 Speaker 1: there was hot water and it was flowing, and it 268 00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:06,600 Speaker 1: was as much as you liked, right, Would you care 269 00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:10,200 Speaker 1: how you were getting that? What do you mean how 270 00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:14,400 Speaker 1: it was being delivered through my faucet? Yes? Uh, this 271 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:17,760 Speaker 1: is trick question. No it's not. Let me rephrase. If 272 00:16:17,800 --> 00:16:20,000 Speaker 1: you went home and I answering it wrong and turned 273 00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:21,960 Speaker 1: on your hot water and there was as much hot 274 00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:24,960 Speaker 1: water as you wanted and it was you knew it 275 00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:27,920 Speaker 1: was coming from a sustainable source, would you care if 276 00:16:27,960 --> 00:16:31,240 Speaker 1: it was sustainable? I guess not, But I'm kind of 277 00:16:31,280 --> 00:16:35,880 Speaker 1: like a water saver, So your water saver. What if 278 00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:38,760 Speaker 1: you knew you didn't really have to save water because 279 00:16:38,760 --> 00:16:41,720 Speaker 1: it was so sustainable, you wouldn't care. No one cares, 280 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:44,720 Speaker 1: as long as we have the luxuries that were afforded. 281 00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:47,400 Speaker 1: You point it doesn't. You don't care if it came 282 00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 1: from burning bananappeals, No one cares. The problem is that 283 00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:55,560 Speaker 1: the problem with the course that we're on apparently right now, 284 00:16:56,200 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 1: is that we are UM using technology g not to 285 00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:05,920 Speaker 1: get more from less, but to get more from more 286 00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:10,240 Speaker 1: more cheaply. Right. Yeah, it's um. It's a uniquely human 287 00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:11,879 Speaker 1: thing they call it in the article, which is pretty 288 00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:16,520 Speaker 1: much true. But technological advancement is in many ways leading 289 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:21,280 Speaker 1: to our habitat destruction. Ideally, at this point everyone would 290 00:17:21,320 --> 00:17:25,399 Speaker 1: be on solar and the massive companies would be solar 291 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:27,679 Speaker 1: powered and all that kind of thing. And that's another 292 00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:30,840 Speaker 1: great point is you know, you don't care where your 293 00:17:30,840 --> 00:17:33,120 Speaker 1: electricity comes from. Do you care if it comes from 294 00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:36,480 Speaker 1: a solar panel or wind? No, of course you don't. 295 00:17:36,800 --> 00:17:40,720 Speaker 1: You just want your electricity. So if we had invested, 296 00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:45,440 Speaker 1: or if we could invest our technological advances into um 297 00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:50,160 Speaker 1: getting what we have now from less from solar radiation 298 00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:54,920 Speaker 1: or wind power, then we would be that that's true 299 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:58,679 Speaker 1: cutting edge technology, rather than you know, figuring out ways 300 00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:02,120 Speaker 1: to deplete things faster, more cheaply, which is the way 301 00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:04,600 Speaker 1: we're going. Yeah, like thinking of let's say, a more 302 00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:10,359 Speaker 1: efficient oil driller or a more efficient way of getting 303 00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:13,600 Speaker 1: coal from a mountain, i e. Mountaintop removal. So they're 304 00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:16,320 Speaker 1: using technology, but they're using in ways that are also 305 00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:20,800 Speaker 1: destroying the habitat. And sustainability is all about finding the 306 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:24,080 Speaker 1: right balance in your habitat. So here's here's the conclusion 307 00:18:24,119 --> 00:18:26,880 Speaker 1: I came through from reading this, right, the the argument 308 00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:31,240 Speaker 1: from the positivists camp. I don't even think I'm using 309 00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:34,480 Speaker 1: that word correctly. But um, the people who are the 310 00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:39,760 Speaker 1: Optimists camp, sure duh right are Um they're saying no 311 00:18:39,920 --> 00:18:44,680 Speaker 1: mouths was incorrect because he failed to account for human 312 00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:49,240 Speaker 1: ingenuity and as population grows, so to do the number 313 00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:55,400 Speaker 1: of geniuses, and that's where innovation comes from. Right. Um. 314 00:18:55,520 --> 00:19:00,639 Speaker 1: The I think the the Optimists are missing a point 315 00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:04,399 Speaker 1: in their model, and that is greed. You can't really 316 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:13,280 Speaker 1: sway greed to to benefit human ecology, can you know? 317 00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:16,359 Speaker 1: And you can't convince an entire population of people to 318 00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:18,920 Speaker 1: change their lifestyles, which is what it would take. That's 319 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:22,560 Speaker 1: what I'm saying you you can't because they don't care. 320 00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:25,879 Speaker 1: But if you could deliver them that same amount of 321 00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:29,800 Speaker 1: hot water, that same electricity and it was coming from 322 00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:32,440 Speaker 1: a sustainable source, no one's going to fight that, right 323 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:35,280 Speaker 1: right right. It's having to get them to fight that 324 00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:38,040 Speaker 1: fight to get the people who are controlling it to 325 00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:42,040 Speaker 1: change over. They're not going to do that. So there's 326 00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:44,600 Speaker 1: that fatal flaw in that model that the gloom and 327 00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:48,520 Speaker 1: Doom camp has over the um Optimist camp, and that 328 00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:51,959 Speaker 1: there they don't account for for greed, have you ever 329 00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:54,160 Speaker 1: seen who killed the electric car? No, I never did. 330 00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:57,240 Speaker 1: I encourage people to see that. That's pretty scary. The 331 00:19:57,280 --> 00:19:59,280 Speaker 1: e V one was, I mean, I don't know if 332 00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:01,800 Speaker 1: you remember, but the e V one was. It was 333 00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:04,239 Speaker 1: ready to go. There were TV commercials you can look 334 00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:07,159 Speaker 1: up EV one commercial on YouTube and they were running 335 00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:11,200 Speaker 1: them on television. Electric electric cars are here, They're not coming, 336 00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:15,640 Speaker 1: they are here, and boom, it was gone. Yeah, I'll 337 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:18,080 Speaker 1: check it out and I'll give you a few guesses 338 00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:20,720 Speaker 1: as to why it left so quickly. And not only 339 00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:23,400 Speaker 1: were they gone, dude, they literally gathered them all up 340 00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:27,720 Speaker 1: and crushed them really like so many et Atari game 341 00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:34,920 Speaker 1: cartridges exactly. Yeah, sad, but go go rented. It's cool. Yeah, 342 00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:40,840 Speaker 1: that's why skame a little bit that you should know why. 343 00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:59,480 Speaker 1: But J Clark and um powerful lobbies out there. What 344 00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:01,879 Speaker 1: else you got? I got nothing, man, This is this 345 00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:03,240 Speaker 1: is a good one to chew on for people. I 346 00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:05,520 Speaker 1: think I think so too. We just encourage people like 347 00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:08,440 Speaker 1: we always do, just to you know, we're not saying, 348 00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:10,840 Speaker 1: you know, quit your job and go like build solar 349 00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:12,359 Speaker 1: panels for a living and live on a on a 350 00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 1: wind farm. You can do that. That'd be awesome, but 351 00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:17,800 Speaker 1: little little things, little positive steps. They've saved a little water, 352 00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:21,000 Speaker 1: save a little power. I disagree, man, what I don't 353 00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 1: think the onus is on the people. I think the 354 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:31,719 Speaker 1: onus is on the the people who are misdirecting technological advancement. 355 00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:34,560 Speaker 1: I'd say it's on both. I disagree. You don't think 356 00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:37,720 Speaker 1: the onus is on the people to conserve. I think 357 00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:40,840 Speaker 1: I think it. I think it is. I think we've 358 00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:42,600 Speaker 1: put it on the people, but I don't think it's 359 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:47,240 Speaker 1: going to make enough of an impact. All right, I 360 00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:49,280 Speaker 1: think it's on the policy makers. That's who I think 361 00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:53,440 Speaker 1: it's on. I was, I think I think it's on both. Um. Okay, 362 00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:55,520 Speaker 1: well that's a debate to be played out on the 363 00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:57,600 Speaker 1: Facebook page if you ask me. Right, yeah, man, we 364 00:21:57,600 --> 00:22:00,200 Speaker 1: should set up before um. So, if you want to 365 00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:03,840 Speaker 1: learn more, type in has the Earth reached its carrying capacity? 366 00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:07,080 Speaker 1: Or Thomas Malthus M A L. T. H U S 367 00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:09,320 Speaker 1: in the search bar how stuff works dot Com. It 368 00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:12,000 Speaker 1: will bring up some pretty cool stuff. Well, then that 369 00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 1: means it's time for listener mail. All right, Josh, you're 370 00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:18,920 Speaker 1: gonna call this, uh how to make a my teenage son? 371 00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:24,240 Speaker 1: Listen to your show from Portland, Oregon, Hi, guys and Jerry. 372 00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:26,919 Speaker 1: When you have a teenager, you will quickly learn that 373 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:28,600 Speaker 1: you can't just tell them what to do and expect 374 00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:32,080 Speaker 1: them to do it. I remember those days. It's so 375 00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:35,160 Speaker 1: frustrating because as a parent, you know that your kid 376 00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:36,919 Speaker 1: will love something and get lots out of it, but 377 00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:38,800 Speaker 1: you can't come right out and say it, or they 378 00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:41,640 Speaker 1: will never ever try the thing you told them to try. 379 00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:44,919 Speaker 1: For example, your podcast. I knew for a fact, like 380 00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:46,720 Speaker 1: I know that it will reign in Portland, that my 381 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,080 Speaker 1: thirteen year old son Ethan would really love stuff. You 382 00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:51,720 Speaker 1: should know because I love the podcast. I've turned other 383 00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:53,720 Speaker 1: people onto it and they love it. But I knew 384 00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:55,800 Speaker 1: I had to be sneaky in order for my son 385 00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:59,280 Speaker 1: to give it a try. Ethan is a fencer and 386 00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:01,480 Speaker 1: at the time was also working on a research project 387 00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:05,119 Speaker 1: about Renaissance jousting and tournaments. So one Saturday, I was 388 00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:08,840 Speaker 1: working in the kitchen. I played how Nights Work Uh 389 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:11,200 Speaker 1: to catch his interest. Every time he came in the kitchen, 390 00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:15,960 Speaker 1: I'd hit play. When he leave, I'd hit pause. I 391 00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:17,680 Speaker 1: would figure he would just think, Man, these guys take 392 00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:20,239 Speaker 1: a long time to finish the Center. He would hang 393 00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:22,240 Speaker 1: around the kitchen longer and longer each time, and I 394 00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:24,239 Speaker 1: could tell I almost had him on the line like 395 00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:27,880 Speaker 1: I was noodling. Although you would say that had him 396 00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:31,120 Speaker 1: on the arm. Yeah, there's no line. When it was over, 397 00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:33,040 Speaker 1: he said he already knew everything you talked about in 398 00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:35,720 Speaker 1: the podcast, but I could tell he was intrigued. Then 399 00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:37,479 Speaker 1: I hit him with the Scooby Doo Show and that 400 00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:40,240 Speaker 1: was it. You had another fan. Now he has downloaded 401 00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:42,959 Speaker 1: the app for his iPod and listens each night as 402 00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:46,760 Speaker 1: he's going to sleep. And that is Yeah, that's from 403 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:50,800 Speaker 1: Afton in a very sneaky mom thank you in Portland, Oregon. 404 00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:53,960 Speaker 1: Thanks at That also kind of ties into the Colts 405 00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:57,800 Speaker 1: and brainwashing episodes two, didn't Yeah, and she said um. 406 00:23:57,880 --> 00:23:59,600 Speaker 1: When she replied, I asked her if I could read this, 407 00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:01,680 Speaker 1: She said, you are, And she said, I guess he'll 408 00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:04,720 Speaker 1: know my little trick now. But he'll get such a 409 00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:07,359 Speaker 1: kick out of being mentioned Ethan the Fencer. Yes, he 410 00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:10,440 Speaker 1: will forget that. Yeah, and at least he can rest 411 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:13,159 Speaker 1: assured that she's not like putting anything in his soup 412 00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:15,480 Speaker 1: to get him to do what she wants. She she 413 00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:19,280 Speaker 1: uses more subtle tactics than that. Right, I wish you 414 00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:21,199 Speaker 1: could put something in soup to make people listen to this. 415 00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:24,560 Speaker 1: I'd be putting it in soup. Yeah, that's a good idea. 416 00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:27,000 Speaker 1: I'll put it in all soups. I'll tell you what, 417 00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:29,120 Speaker 1: if you have any suggestions of what we can put 418 00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:31,160 Speaker 1: in people's soup to get them to listen to stuff 419 00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:33,160 Speaker 1: you should know and to get them to go give 420 00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:36,680 Speaker 1: us a review on iTunes. Huh, yeah, that that helps 421 00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:40,080 Speaker 1: us out. When you do that, Uh, you should send 422 00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,760 Speaker 1: us an email and you should send it to a 423 00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:48,240 Speaker 1: specific email dress. That is Stuff Podcast at how stuff 424 00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:54,320 Speaker 1: works dot com.