WEBVTT - Here's Why Iran Is Losing Its Influence 

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. I'm Stephen Carol and

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<v Speaker 1>this is Here is Why, where we take one news

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<v Speaker 1>story and explain it in just a few minutes with

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<v Speaker 1>our experts here at Bloomberg. The toppling of Bashar al

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<v Speaker 1>Assad's regime in Syria is yet another seismic shift in

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<v Speaker 1>a region that's seen repeated major upheaval in the past year.

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<v Speaker 2>The collapse of the Acid regime, the Tyranny and Damascus

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<v Speaker 2>offers great opportunity, but also is fraught with significant danger.

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<v Speaker 1>We have to see this as an opportunity for the

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<v Speaker 1>future of Syria.

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<v Speaker 2>That's a future without the tourism and violence that we've

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<v Speaker 2>seen far too much of in this brutal regime.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a moment of historic opportunity along suffering people of

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<v Speaker 1>Syria to build a better future for the proud country.

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<v Speaker 1>It's also a moment of risk and uncertainty. Asads regime

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<v Speaker 1>was a key ally for Iran in the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 1>Hamas and Hezbala, other groups supported by Tehran are also

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<v Speaker 1>weakened after more than a year of conflict with Israel.

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<v Speaker 1>So here's why Iran is losing its influence. Goner a Motavali,

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<v Speaker 1>who leads our coverage of Iran here at Bloomberg, joins

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<v Speaker 1>me now for more just to put this in context

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<v Speaker 1>for us, how important was the Assad regime to Iran.

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<v Speaker 2>If you think of Iran's network of proxies or what

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<v Speaker 2>it calls itself the axis of resistance, and what we

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<v Speaker 2>tend to refer to using our language as the network

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<v Speaker 2>of proxies and allies, you can look at Syria and

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<v Speaker 2>Hamas and Hezbola as some kind of triangle in the

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<v Speaker 2>Levant in the eastern Mediterranean, and then you can also

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<v Speaker 2>add the Huthis or an Sarola in Yemen. That group

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<v Speaker 2>is very important because it provides Iran with some influence

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<v Speaker 2>on the Arabian peninsula. So it gives it a way

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<v Speaker 2>of exerting pressure not just on Saudi when it needs

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<v Speaker 2>to where when it feels it needs to, but obviously

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<v Speaker 2>on an incredibly key shipping route that goes to the

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<v Speaker 2>Red Sea directly towards the Sewerz Canal, but more broadly

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<v Speaker 2>on the Persian Gulf. If you think of those three

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<v Speaker 2>pillars Hesba, La, Siria, Hamas, it really had the Levant

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<v Speaker 2>area covered, especially when you think about the way that

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<v Speaker 2>Iran's enmity and opposition to the state of Israel since

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<v Speaker 2>the foundation of the Islamic Republic has been so defining

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<v Speaker 2>of its foreign policy and even of its identity. So

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<v Speaker 2>to that extent, that cluster of allies in the Levant

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<v Speaker 2>were very important in terms of challenging not just Israel,

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<v Speaker 2>but obviously US influence as well.

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<v Speaker 1>So what does around do now then, if it's I

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<v Speaker 1>suppose its centers of influence have been weakened these three ones, Now,

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<v Speaker 1>how can it respond to this?

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<v Speaker 2>It's very interesting because when you look at it, on

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<v Speaker 2>the face of it, we've had the effective defenestration of

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<v Speaker 2>all these groups. You know, their leaders have been killed,

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<v Speaker 2>with the exception of as said, he's just run away.

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<v Speaker 2>So it feels and it looks like their regional policy,

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<v Speaker 2>which was such a cornerstone of their foreign policy, And

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<v Speaker 2>as I said, the overall political identity of the Islamic

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<v Speaker 2>Republic is in tatas. It's kind of in disarray. It's

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<v Speaker 2>on its knees, you know, it's struggling, mostly because of

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<v Speaker 2>the extent to which Israel has attacked and bombarded Hamas

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<v Speaker 2>and Hezbola positions in Gaza and in Lebanon. But the

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<v Speaker 2>rhetoric and the statements coming out of Tehran are a

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<v Speaker 2>combination of obvious face saving, with the Foreign Minister saying

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<v Speaker 2>that we knew this was going to happen. We had

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<v Speaker 2>intelligence on HTS, the group leading the rebels, We knew

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<v Speaker 2>that they were making answers from Idlib. We didn't know

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<v Speaker 2>that the army would retreat so easily, so I think

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<v Speaker 2>they were blindsided and shocked by the speed at which

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<v Speaker 2>the army just kind of backed off and assad just left.

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<v Speaker 2>At the same time, we had some quite important comments

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<v Speaker 2>from Harmony where he said that what's happened in Syria

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<v Speaker 2>is obviously a plot designed by the US and Israel,

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<v Speaker 2>and he implied suggested quite strongly that Turkey was very

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<v Speaker 2>heavily involved as well. And he basically made a vow

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<v Speaker 2>that the axis of resistance will live on, and it

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<v Speaker 2>will actually be stronger, and we will expand further. It's

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<v Speaker 2>difficult for us to say that that plank of Iran's

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<v Speaker 2>foreign policy is dead. I think it's too soon to

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<v Speaker 2>call that, but I think there is definitely a sense

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<v Speaker 2>that Iran will for now maybe retreat, assess the situation,

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<v Speaker 2>wait to see where the Chips might fall. A crucial

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<v Speaker 2>question mark for the Iranian regime is obviously Trump's returned

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<v Speaker 2>to the White House. What that means He's going to

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<v Speaker 2>side with Netanyahu. But the extent to which he is

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<v Speaker 2>going to agree to everything that Netanyah who wants to do,

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<v Speaker 2>and that's going to be really really crucial.

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<v Speaker 1>Does Iran actually have options in the region to expand

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<v Speaker 1>its influence? Are their proxies, are their allies that it

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<v Speaker 1>can lean up.

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<v Speaker 2>One other part of its network of allies I should

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<v Speaker 2>have mentioned quite significant and very important is in Iraq.

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<v Speaker 2>Iran's wielded huge influence on Iraqi politics and the Iraqi

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<v Speaker 2>military since the US invasion of Iraq in two thousand

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<v Speaker 2>and three, after they toppled the Bathist regime run by

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<v Speaker 2>Sadam Hussein. That left this massive sort of power vacuum

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<v Speaker 2>for Iran to kind of like go in there and

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<v Speaker 2>exert lots of influence. So potentially it can double down

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<v Speaker 2>on those efforts if it has enough buy in from

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<v Speaker 2>the Iraqi government. There are some suggests, some unofficial and

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<v Speaker 2>I think on verified reports, suggesting that Iraq didn't want

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<v Speaker 2>to get involved in what was going on in Syria.

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<v Speaker 2>I didn't want to go into Syria, and so it'll

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<v Speaker 2>be interesting to know whether that was a request that

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<v Speaker 2>Iran made of the Iraqis and whether they push back

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<v Speaker 2>on that. So even that relationship, there's a bit of

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<v Speaker 2>a question mark there. But you know, it still has

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<v Speaker 2>the whu Thi's in Yemen. But it's also struggling with

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<v Speaker 2>very weak economy, extremely weak economy, and it's a very

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<v Speaker 2>unpopular system right now. The Islamic Republic, it can't rely

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<v Speaker 2>and lean on public legitimacy or popularity in order to

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<v Speaker 2>be able to convince the public that it's a good

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<v Speaker 2>idea for it to double down on this and spend

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<v Speaker 2>more money on what has turned out to be a

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<v Speaker 2>very costly foreign enterprise.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, Gola Rodavali, who leads our coverage of around a Bloomberg,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you very much for joining us for more explanations

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<v Speaker 1>like this one from our team of twenty nine hundred

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<v Speaker 1>journalists and analysts around the world. Search for Quick Take

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<v Speaker 1>on the Bloomberg website or Bloomberg Business app. I'm Stephen Carol.

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<v Speaker 1>This is here's why. I'll be back next week with more.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening.