Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. I'm Stephen Carol and
Speaker 1: this is Here is Why, where we take one news
Speaker 1: story and explain it in just a few minutes with
Speaker 1: our experts here at Bloomberg. The toppling of Bashar al
Speaker 1: Assad's regime in Syria is yet another seismic shift in
Speaker 1: a region that's seen repeated major upheaval in the past year.
Speaker 2: The collapse of the Acid regime, the Tyranny and Damascus
Speaker 2: offers great opportunity, but also is fraught with significant danger.
Speaker 1: We have to see this as an opportunity for the
Speaker 1: future of Syria.
Speaker 2: That's a future without the tourism and violence that we've
Speaker 2: seen far too much of in this brutal regime.
Speaker 1: It's a moment of historic opportunity along suffering people of
Speaker 1: Syria to build a better future for the proud country.
Speaker 1: It's also a moment of risk and uncertainty. Asads regime
Speaker 1: was a key ally for Iran in the Middle East.
Speaker 1: Hamas and Hezbala, other groups supported by Tehran are also
Speaker 1: weakened after more than a year of conflict with Israel.
Speaker 1: So here's why Iran is losing its influence. Goner a Motavali,
Speaker 1: who leads our coverage of Iran here at Bloomberg, joins
Speaker 1: me now for more just to put this in context
Speaker 1: for us, how important was the Assad regime to Iran.
Speaker 2: If you think of Iran's network of proxies or what
Speaker 2: it calls itself the axis of resistance, and what we
Speaker 2: tend to refer to using our language as the network
Speaker 2: of proxies and allies, you can look at Syria and
Speaker 2: Hamas and Hezbola as some kind of triangle in the
Speaker 2: Levant in the eastern Mediterranean, and then you can also
Speaker 2: add the Huthis or an Sarola in Yemen. That group
Speaker 2: is very important because it provides Iran with some influence
Speaker 2: on the Arabian peninsula. So it gives it a way
Speaker 2: of exerting pressure not just on Saudi when it needs
Speaker 2: to where when it feels it needs to, but obviously
Speaker 2: on an incredibly key shipping route that goes to the
Speaker 2: Red Sea directly towards the Sewerz Canal, but more broadly
Speaker 2: on the Persian Gulf. If you think of those three
Speaker 2: pillars Hesba, La, Siria, Hamas, it really had the Levant
Speaker 2: area covered, especially when you think about the way that
Speaker 2: Iran's enmity and opposition to the state of Israel since
Speaker 2: the foundation of the Islamic Republic has been so defining
Speaker 2: of its foreign policy and even of its identity. So
Speaker 2: to that extent, that cluster of allies in the Levant
Speaker 2: were very important in terms of challenging not just Israel,
Speaker 2: but obviously US influence as well.
Speaker 1: So what does around do now then, if it's I
Speaker 1: suppose its centers of influence have been weakened these three ones, Now,
Speaker 1: how can it respond to this?
Speaker 2: It's very interesting because when you look at it, on
Speaker 2: the face of it, we've had the effective defenestration of
Speaker 2: all these groups. You know, their leaders have been killed,
Speaker 2: with the exception of as said, he's just run away.
Speaker 2: So it feels and it looks like their regional policy,
Speaker 2: which was such a cornerstone of their foreign policy, And
Speaker 2: as I said, the overall political identity of the Islamic
Speaker 2: Republic is in tatas. It's kind of in disarray. It's
Speaker 2: on its knees, you know, it's struggling, mostly because of
Speaker 2: the extent to which Israel has attacked and bombarded Hamas
Speaker 2: and Hezbola positions in Gaza and in Lebanon. But the
Speaker 2: rhetoric and the statements coming out of Tehran are a
Speaker 2: combination of obvious face saving, with the Foreign Minister saying
Speaker 2: that we knew this was going to happen. We had
Speaker 2: intelligence on HTS, the group leading the rebels, We knew
Speaker 2: that they were making answers from Idlib. We didn't know
Speaker 2: that the army would retreat so easily, so I think
Speaker 2: they were blindsided and shocked by the speed at which
Speaker 2: the army just kind of backed off and assad just left.
Speaker 2: At the same time, we had some quite important comments
Speaker 2: from Harmony where he said that what's happened in Syria
Speaker 2: is obviously a plot designed by the US and Israel,
Speaker 2: and he implied suggested quite strongly that Turkey was very
Speaker 2: heavily involved as well. And he basically made a vow
Speaker 2: that the axis of resistance will live on, and it
Speaker 2: will actually be stronger, and we will expand further. It's
Speaker 2: difficult for us to say that that plank of Iran's
Speaker 2: foreign policy is dead. I think it's too soon to
Speaker 2: call that, but I think there is definitely a sense
Speaker 2: that Iran will for now maybe retreat, assess the situation,
Speaker 2: wait to see where the Chips might fall. A crucial
Speaker 2: question mark for the Iranian regime is obviously Trump's returned
Speaker 2: to the White House. What that means He's going to
Speaker 2: side with Netanyahu. But the extent to which he is
Speaker 2: going to agree to everything that Netanyah who wants to do,
Speaker 2: and that's going to be really really crucial.
Speaker 1: Does Iran actually have options in the region to expand
Speaker 1: its influence? Are their proxies, are their allies that it
Speaker 1: can lean up.
Speaker 2: One other part of its network of allies I should
Speaker 2: have mentioned quite significant and very important is in Iraq.
Speaker 2: Iran's wielded huge influence on Iraqi politics and the Iraqi
Speaker 2: military since the US invasion of Iraq in two thousand
Speaker 2: and three, after they toppled the Bathist regime run by
Speaker 2: Sadam Hussein. That left this massive sort of power vacuum
Speaker 2: for Iran to kind of like go in there and
Speaker 2: exert lots of influence. So potentially it can double down
Speaker 2: on those efforts if it has enough buy in from
Speaker 2: the Iraqi government. There are some suggests, some unofficial and
Speaker 2: I think on verified reports, suggesting that Iraq didn't want
Speaker 2: to get involved in what was going on in Syria.
Speaker 2: I didn't want to go into Syria, and so it'll
Speaker 2: be interesting to know whether that was a request that
Speaker 2: Iran made of the Iraqis and whether they push back
Speaker 2: on that. So even that relationship, there's a bit of
Speaker 2: a question mark there. But you know, it still has
Speaker 2: the whu Thi's in Yemen. But it's also struggling with
Speaker 2: very weak economy, extremely weak economy, and it's a very
Speaker 2: unpopular system right now. The Islamic Republic, it can't rely
Speaker 2: and lean on public legitimacy or popularity in order to
Speaker 2: be able to convince the public that it's a good
Speaker 2: idea for it to double down on this and spend
Speaker 2: more money on what has turned out to be a
Speaker 2: very costly foreign enterprise.
Speaker 1: Okay, Gola Rodavali, who leads our coverage of around a Bloomberg,
Speaker 1: thank you very much for joining us for more explanations
Speaker 1: like this one from our team of twenty nine hundred
Speaker 1: journalists and analysts around the world. Search for Quick Take
Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg website or Bloomberg Business app. I'm Stephen Carol.
Speaker 1: This is here's why. I'll be back next week with more.
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening.