1 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:09,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. I'm Stephen Carol and 2 00:00:09,640 --> 00:00:11,840 Speaker 1: this is Here is Why, where we take one news 3 00:00:11,840 --> 00:00:14,200 Speaker 1: story and explain it in just a few minutes with 4 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:21,280 Speaker 1: our experts here at Bloomberg. The toppling of Bashar al 5 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:25,239 Speaker 1: Assad's regime in Syria is yet another seismic shift in 6 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:29,400 Speaker 1: a region that's seen repeated major upheaval in the past year. 7 00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:32,919 Speaker 2: The collapse of the Acid regime, the Tyranny and Damascus 8 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:37,160 Speaker 2: offers great opportunity, but also is fraught with significant danger. 9 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:39,720 Speaker 1: We have to see this as an opportunity for the 10 00:00:39,760 --> 00:00:40,919 Speaker 1: future of Syria. 11 00:00:41,040 --> 00:00:43,319 Speaker 2: That's a future without the tourism and violence that we've 12 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:46,000 Speaker 2: seen far too much of in this brutal regime. 13 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:49,400 Speaker 1: It's a moment of historic opportunity along suffering people of 14 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:52,640 Speaker 1: Syria to build a better future for the proud country. 15 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:55,880 Speaker 1: It's also a moment of risk and uncertainty. Asads regime 16 00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:58,560 Speaker 1: was a key ally for Iran in the Middle East. 17 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 1: Hamas and Hezbala, other groups supported by Tehran are also 18 00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:05,760 Speaker 1: weakened after more than a year of conflict with Israel. 19 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:12,920 Speaker 1: So here's why Iran is losing its influence. Goner a Motavali, 20 00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:15,399 Speaker 1: who leads our coverage of Iran here at Bloomberg, joins 21 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:18,760 Speaker 1: me now for more just to put this in context 22 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:22,080 Speaker 1: for us, how important was the Assad regime to Iran. 23 00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:27,520 Speaker 2: If you think of Iran's network of proxies or what 24 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:30,959 Speaker 2: it calls itself the axis of resistance, and what we 25 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:34,920 Speaker 2: tend to refer to using our language as the network 26 00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 2: of proxies and allies, you can look at Syria and 27 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:43,440 Speaker 2: Hamas and Hezbola as some kind of triangle in the 28 00:01:43,520 --> 00:01:47,920 Speaker 2: Levant in the eastern Mediterranean, and then you can also 29 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:52,120 Speaker 2: add the Huthis or an Sarola in Yemen. That group 30 00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:57,040 Speaker 2: is very important because it provides Iran with some influence 31 00:01:57,120 --> 00:01:59,800 Speaker 2: on the Arabian peninsula. So it gives it a way 32 00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:04,480 Speaker 2: of exerting pressure not just on Saudi when it needs 33 00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:07,000 Speaker 2: to where when it feels it needs to, but obviously 34 00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:11,080 Speaker 2: on an incredibly key shipping route that goes to the 35 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 2: Red Sea directly towards the Sewerz Canal, but more broadly 36 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 2: on the Persian Gulf. If you think of those three 37 00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:23,119 Speaker 2: pillars Hesba, La, Siria, Hamas, it really had the Levant 38 00:02:23,320 --> 00:02:28,119 Speaker 2: area covered, especially when you think about the way that 39 00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:33,639 Speaker 2: Iran's enmity and opposition to the state of Israel since 40 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:38,279 Speaker 2: the foundation of the Islamic Republic has been so defining 41 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 2: of its foreign policy and even of its identity. So 42 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:45,240 Speaker 2: to that extent, that cluster of allies in the Levant 43 00:02:45,240 --> 00:02:48,320 Speaker 2: were very important in terms of challenging not just Israel, 44 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:50,880 Speaker 2: but obviously US influence as well. 45 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:54,239 Speaker 1: So what does around do now then, if it's I 46 00:02:54,240 --> 00:02:58,400 Speaker 1: suppose its centers of influence have been weakened these three ones, Now, 47 00:02:58,600 --> 00:02:59,840 Speaker 1: how can it respond to this? 48 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:03,680 Speaker 2: It's very interesting because when you look at it, on 49 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:07,440 Speaker 2: the face of it, we've had the effective defenestration of 50 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:10,720 Speaker 2: all these groups. You know, their leaders have been killed, 51 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 2: with the exception of as said, he's just run away. 52 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:18,080 Speaker 2: So it feels and it looks like their regional policy, 53 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:21,520 Speaker 2: which was such a cornerstone of their foreign policy, And 54 00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:25,120 Speaker 2: as I said, the overall political identity of the Islamic 55 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:28,839 Speaker 2: Republic is in tatas. It's kind of in disarray. It's 56 00:03:28,880 --> 00:03:33,280 Speaker 2: on its knees, you know, it's struggling, mostly because of 57 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:39,360 Speaker 2: the extent to which Israel has attacked and bombarded Hamas 58 00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 2: and Hezbola positions in Gaza and in Lebanon. But the 59 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 2: rhetoric and the statements coming out of Tehran are a 60 00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:51,880 Speaker 2: combination of obvious face saving, with the Foreign Minister saying 61 00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:53,800 Speaker 2: that we knew this was going to happen. We had 62 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 2: intelligence on HTS, the group leading the rebels, We knew 63 00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 2: that they were making answers from Idlib. We didn't know 64 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:05,839 Speaker 2: that the army would retreat so easily, so I think 65 00:04:05,840 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 2: they were blindsided and shocked by the speed at which 66 00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:13,600 Speaker 2: the army just kind of backed off and assad just left. 67 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 2: At the same time, we had some quite important comments 68 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:21,040 Speaker 2: from Harmony where he said that what's happened in Syria 69 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:24,880 Speaker 2: is obviously a plot designed by the US and Israel, 70 00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:30,440 Speaker 2: and he implied suggested quite strongly that Turkey was very 71 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:33,480 Speaker 2: heavily involved as well. And he basically made a vow 72 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:36,839 Speaker 2: that the axis of resistance will live on, and it 73 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:40,800 Speaker 2: will actually be stronger, and we will expand further. It's 74 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:43,679 Speaker 2: difficult for us to say that that plank of Iran's 75 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:46,839 Speaker 2: foreign policy is dead. I think it's too soon to 76 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:49,760 Speaker 2: call that, but I think there is definitely a sense 77 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:55,120 Speaker 2: that Iran will for now maybe retreat, assess the situation, 78 00:04:55,720 --> 00:04:59,479 Speaker 2: wait to see where the Chips might fall. A crucial 79 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:04,760 Speaker 2: question mark for the Iranian regime is obviously Trump's returned 80 00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:07,440 Speaker 2: to the White House. What that means He's going to 81 00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:09,839 Speaker 2: side with Netanyahu. But the extent to which he is 82 00:05:09,920 --> 00:05:13,800 Speaker 2: going to agree to everything that Netanyah who wants to do, 83 00:05:14,320 --> 00:05:16,479 Speaker 2: and that's going to be really really crucial. 84 00:05:16,640 --> 00:05:20,520 Speaker 1: Does Iran actually have options in the region to expand 85 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:23,279 Speaker 1: its influence? Are their proxies, are their allies that it 86 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:23,920 Speaker 1: can lean up. 87 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:27,640 Speaker 2: One other part of its network of allies I should 88 00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:31,080 Speaker 2: have mentioned quite significant and very important is in Iraq. 89 00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 2: Iran's wielded huge influence on Iraqi politics and the Iraqi 90 00:05:35,560 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 2: military since the US invasion of Iraq in two thousand 91 00:05:39,080 --> 00:05:41,680 Speaker 2: and three, after they toppled the Bathist regime run by 92 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 2: Sadam Hussein. That left this massive sort of power vacuum 93 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:46,800 Speaker 2: for Iran to kind of like go in there and 94 00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:52,040 Speaker 2: exert lots of influence. So potentially it can double down 95 00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:56,520 Speaker 2: on those efforts if it has enough buy in from 96 00:05:56,960 --> 00:06:01,640 Speaker 2: the Iraqi government. There are some suggests, some unofficial and 97 00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:05,440 Speaker 2: I think on verified reports, suggesting that Iraq didn't want 98 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:07,880 Speaker 2: to get involved in what was going on in Syria. 99 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:10,400 Speaker 2: I didn't want to go into Syria, and so it'll 100 00:06:10,440 --> 00:06:13,320 Speaker 2: be interesting to know whether that was a request that 101 00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:16,680 Speaker 2: Iran made of the Iraqis and whether they push back 102 00:06:16,680 --> 00:06:19,279 Speaker 2: on that. So even that relationship, there's a bit of 103 00:06:19,320 --> 00:06:22,960 Speaker 2: a question mark there. But you know, it still has 104 00:06:23,120 --> 00:06:26,680 Speaker 2: the whu Thi's in Yemen. But it's also struggling with 105 00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:31,400 Speaker 2: very weak economy, extremely weak economy, and it's a very 106 00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:35,200 Speaker 2: unpopular system right now. The Islamic Republic, it can't rely 107 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:40,479 Speaker 2: and lean on public legitimacy or popularity in order to 108 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:42,640 Speaker 2: be able to convince the public that it's a good 109 00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:45,080 Speaker 2: idea for it to double down on this and spend 110 00:06:45,160 --> 00:06:48,920 Speaker 2: more money on what has turned out to be a 111 00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:51,080 Speaker 2: very costly foreign enterprise. 112 00:06:51,520 --> 00:06:54,240 Speaker 1: Okay, Gola Rodavali, who leads our coverage of around a Bloomberg, 113 00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:57,720 Speaker 1: thank you very much for joining us for more explanations 114 00:06:57,760 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 1: like this one from our team of twenty nine hundred 115 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:02,800 Speaker 1: journalists and analysts around the world. Search for Quick Take 116 00:07:02,839 --> 00:07:08,279 Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg website or Bloomberg Business app. I'm Stephen Carol. 117 00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 1: This is here's why. I'll be back next week with more. 118 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening.