1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:03,720 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast. 2 00:00:05,480 --> 00:00:06,320 Speaker 2: That's when you have. 3 00:00:06,440 --> 00:00:10,400 Speaker 3: Fun when you're kicking somebody's ass and they're sucking from when. 4 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:11,880 Speaker 2: I was good. 5 00:00:12,440 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 3: Ready, go. 6 00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:24,240 Speaker 2: In bolder on the base off pop Yeah. 7 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:24,960 Speaker 1: Way outside. 8 00:00:25,040 --> 00:00:27,240 Speaker 3: Possible time. 9 00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:32,879 Speaker 2: The event. There it is. 10 00:00:33,360 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 3: We welcome to the Action Network podcast. I'm like Calvary's. 11 00:00:38,080 --> 00:00:40,680 Speaker 3: Our podcast sday is brought to you by FanDuel and 12 00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:43,559 Speaker 3: I am joined by the Action Networks Director of Research, 13 00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:46,600 Speaker 3: Evan Abrams to talk everything Final four. We kicked you 14 00:00:46,640 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 3: off in the pre tournament phase, trying to warn everybody 15 00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:52,080 Speaker 3: sounding the alarm that this was going to be a 16 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:55,080 Speaker 3: crazy march madness. Here we are two weeks later in 17 00:00:55,120 --> 00:00:57,840 Speaker 3: the Final four, and it basically has paid off. No 18 00:00:58,200 --> 00:01:01,319 Speaker 3: top seeds, no one seed, two seed, three seed to 19 00:01:01,360 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 3: the final four. We have two true mid majors playing 20 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:06,240 Speaker 3: ahead to head, which means that we'll have a true 21 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:09,080 Speaker 3: mid major in the national championship game. When you look 22 00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:11,640 Speaker 3: back all the way to nineteen ninety when UNLV cut 23 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:14,200 Speaker 3: down the nets as the national champion. Since then, we 24 00:01:14,240 --> 00:01:16,640 Speaker 3: had Utah in nineteen ninety eight, Butler in back to 25 00:01:16,680 --> 00:01:18,760 Speaker 3: back years in twenty ten, twenty eleven, and if you 26 00:01:18,760 --> 00:01:21,800 Speaker 3: want to count Gonzaga a few years back as a 27 00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:25,440 Speaker 3: true mid major having an opportunity to win the national championship. 28 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:28,759 Speaker 3: That is it. So this is incredibly rare. But we're 29 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:31,280 Speaker 3: bringing in Evan to be able to talk exactly how 30 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 3: intricate and unique this year is and to talk about 31 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:36,920 Speaker 3: the opportunity for any of these four teams to cut 32 00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:40,559 Speaker 3: down the nets. Some cistical nuggets, plenty of analysis. 33 00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:42,800 Speaker 1: Evan, how are you doing great? 34 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 2: That was an incredible intro. I don't know how much 35 00:01:44,880 --> 00:01:46,520 Speaker 2: I can follow that up except for the fact that 36 00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 2: I can't believe we're here with these four teams. It 37 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:52,080 Speaker 2: is literally mind boggling. When you first looked at the bracket, 38 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:54,520 Speaker 2: we were trying to pick winners, and someone's like, Ken, 39 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:58,400 Speaker 2: Purdue do this, and you know whatever, picking Arizona to 40 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:00,120 Speaker 2: win it all. You know, all sorts of things you 41 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:02,280 Speaker 2: hear all across the bracket, and now we're sitting here 42 00:02:02,440 --> 00:02:05,040 Speaker 2: with just a collection of madness. I think the first 43 00:02:05,040 --> 00:02:06,960 Speaker 2: thing we kind of have to talk about is these 44 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:11,320 Speaker 2: teams final four odds entering the tournament, because it gives 45 00:02:11,360 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 2: us like a historical perspective since we have that pretty 46 00:02:14,080 --> 00:02:16,920 Speaker 2: far going back. So let's just start with FAU they 47 00:02:16,919 --> 00:02:19,200 Speaker 2: were between two hundred and two hundred and fifty to 48 00:02:19,200 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 2: one entering the tournament, and I think they're your unicorn 49 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:25,440 Speaker 2: because if they actually pull this off and win it all, 50 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:29,240 Speaker 2: they'll eclipse to Yukon, who was one hundred to one 51 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 2: to win it all. I believe twenty fourteen I have 52 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:36,680 Speaker 2: that right, and so that will be your longest champion ever, 53 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:39,280 Speaker 2: which is insane to say. In the seating era, back 54 00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:42,480 Speaker 2: to like seventy seven seventy eight. From the other teams, 55 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:46,000 Speaker 2: you've got San Diego State at eighty to one, Miami 56 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 2: at fifty to one, and Yukon at sixteen to one. 57 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:51,920 Speaker 2: And the one nugget I'll add to this, which I 58 00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 2: kind of find incredible, Miami fifty to one, San Diego 59 00:02:55,480 --> 00:02:58,320 Speaker 2: State eighty and Florida Atlantic two hundred. So the first 60 00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:01,400 Speaker 2: final four ever with three teams fifty to one or higher. 61 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 2: So that alone kind of tells you this is just madness. 62 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:09,240 Speaker 3: What's some big picture with San Diego State? You know, 63 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:11,720 Speaker 3: when it comes to bringing a national championship out West, 64 00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:14,079 Speaker 3: it's kind of turned into the Oregon Trail. Everyone seems 65 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:17,080 Speaker 3: to die out West, something goes wrong. But here are 66 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 3: the Aztecs being with the ability to be the first 67 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:23,120 Speaker 3: true team out West since nineteen ninety seven when Arizona 68 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 3: won the national championship. To go ahead and cut down 69 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:27,320 Speaker 3: the nets. This is an interesting team for a lot 70 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 3: of different reasons. But are there any statistical nuggets that 71 00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:33,120 Speaker 3: jumped out to you as you were looking through SDSU's profile. 72 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:36,040 Speaker 2: Yeah. Man, the nineteen ninety seven note has just been 73 00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:38,520 Speaker 2: killer every single year you've been able to use it. 74 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:41,280 Speaker 2: You know, you've had Gonzaga, You've had a few teams, 75 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:44,040 Speaker 2: but like you said, Oregon Trail dysentery teams have kind 76 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:46,880 Speaker 2: of fell fallen off. But I think the one of 77 00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:49,800 Speaker 2: the interesting things is with the nine seed FAU, five 78 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:52,160 Speaker 2: seed San Diego State, and you got the five on 79 00:03:52,160 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 2: the other side as well. No champion's ever been a 80 00:03:54,720 --> 00:03:56,960 Speaker 2: five seeds, So you have the opportunity to kind of 81 00:03:57,000 --> 00:04:00,440 Speaker 2: see that in this spot and from like a trend 82 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:02,800 Speaker 2: point of view, like how has San Diego State performed 83 00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:05,120 Speaker 2: this season? I think this is kind of interesting. So 84 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:09,240 Speaker 2: bet Labs has second half spreads and San Diego State 85 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:13,360 Speaker 2: was eleven seventeen and two in second halves in lined 86 00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:16,359 Speaker 2: games that there was a second half spread. But since 87 00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:19,400 Speaker 2: March first seven and oh straight up and five one 88 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:22,160 Speaker 2: and two against the second half spread, and they're just 89 00:04:22,279 --> 00:04:24,680 Speaker 2: rolling people. And I think they're doing it in really 90 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:28,200 Speaker 2: really grinded out fashions, and they're doing it in slow 91 00:04:28,240 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 2: paced games, and they're doing it with low scores. And 92 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:32,920 Speaker 2: that kind of leads to the last nugget. They've gone 93 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:37,359 Speaker 2: under now in twelve consecutive games, which is insane to say. 94 00:04:37,400 --> 00:04:41,080 Speaker 2: Since February first, fourteen and one to the under, going 95 00:04:41,160 --> 00:04:44,000 Speaker 2: under by twelve point seven points per game. And that's 96 00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:46,919 Speaker 2: just the way they've played. And we're gonna see if 97 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:49,120 Speaker 2: they can do it again against the Florida Atlantic team. 98 00:04:49,520 --> 00:04:51,679 Speaker 3: So you bring up the fact that they're an elite defense, 99 00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:53,599 Speaker 3: they want to slow the game down, grind it out. 100 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:54,640 Speaker 1: FAU comes in. 101 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 3: They're actually seven and one straight up against top sixty defenses, 102 00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:02,200 Speaker 3: including two wins against Tennessee and Kansas State on their 103 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:04,520 Speaker 3: way here. So what are your thoughts on the Owls 104 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 3: punching their ticket really coming out of nowhere? I know 105 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:09,520 Speaker 3: that they won thirty plus games during the regular season, 106 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:12,120 Speaker 3: but it seems, at least from the selection committee to 107 00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:13,440 Speaker 3: be able to pat on the head you did it 108 00:05:13,480 --> 00:05:16,640 Speaker 3: in Conference USA. That's adorable. No one thinks they're a 109 00:05:16,839 --> 00:05:18,040 Speaker 3: regular darling. 110 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:18,120 Speaker 1: At this point. 111 00:05:18,200 --> 00:05:20,400 Speaker 3: They have been killers. They've been able to grind it 112 00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:22,520 Speaker 3: out against physical teams. They've been able to score in 113 00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:26,120 Speaker 3: high scoring games. So it seems as though they're flexible 114 00:05:26,240 --> 00:05:28,240 Speaker 3: in terms of game flow. So what are your thoughts 115 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:30,680 Speaker 3: on fau's chance to not only win one, but win 116 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:31,679 Speaker 3: two here in Houston. 117 00:05:32,279 --> 00:05:33,560 Speaker 2: I think you need to just take a step back 118 00:05:33,560 --> 00:05:35,800 Speaker 2: and look at one of the notes that you just said. Honestly, 119 00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 2: it's Conference USA, right, seventeen and one straight up in 120 00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:42,080 Speaker 2: postseason play, fourteen and four against the spread. I think 121 00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 2: we just underrated the conference a tiny bit. Like I 122 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:47,760 Speaker 2: loved UAB, I wanted Jelly to get into the time 123 00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:50,120 Speaker 2: so much, and so did so many people, and that 124 00:05:50,200 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 2: team is great. So I just think in general, giving 125 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:55,720 Speaker 2: them a nine seed probably wasn't the right move. Now, 126 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:57,240 Speaker 2: you can say that about a ton of you know, 127 00:05:57,279 --> 00:06:00,040 Speaker 2: teams and seeding and all that stuff, but obviously this 128 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:02,400 Speaker 2: this sticks out like a sore thumb. The one thing 129 00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:04,359 Speaker 2: that everyone's kind of talking about, which I kind of 130 00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:07,680 Speaker 2: find interesting. Fourth team since eighty five to reach the 131 00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:11,360 Speaker 2: Elite eight after literally no NCAA tournament wins prior to 132 00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:14,119 Speaker 2: the season, just new Blood. And then you look and say, 133 00:06:14,360 --> 00:06:16,920 Speaker 2: what about the final four fifteen in the seeding era 134 00:06:17,360 --> 00:06:19,560 Speaker 2: reach the final four and get their first turning win 135 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:21,920 Speaker 2: in the same year. Let's go two thousand and six, 136 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:26,200 Speaker 2: George Mason, nineteen eighty three Georgia, eighty one Virginia and 137 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:29,839 Speaker 2: seventy nine Indiana State and Indiana State only team to 138 00:06:29,880 --> 00:06:31,960 Speaker 2: actually get to the title game. So got to see 139 00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:33,160 Speaker 2: if they can get over the humber. 140 00:06:33,600 --> 00:06:35,440 Speaker 3: Also, when it comes to FAU, they come in with 141 00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:36,640 Speaker 3: a ton of momentum, but. 142 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:39,360 Speaker 1: So to San Diego State in terms of their win streak. 143 00:06:39,440 --> 00:06:42,000 Speaker 3: So does that kind of, you know, render a satellite 144 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:44,640 Speaker 3: that moot or is it interesting to look at teams 145 00:06:44,640 --> 00:06:47,039 Speaker 3: that have reeled off ten plus wins heading into the 146 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:47,560 Speaker 3: final four. 147 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:49,440 Speaker 2: I kind of look at it as it kind of 148 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:51,760 Speaker 2: moots it. It's kind of the same thing back and forth. 149 00:06:51,839 --> 00:06:54,719 Speaker 2: I will say, this is fun. If they are to 150 00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:56,760 Speaker 2: lose in San Diego State is to win. I think 151 00:06:56,760 --> 00:06:59,800 Speaker 2: that leads Merrimack with the longest winning streak in the country. 152 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:03,640 Speaker 2: So poor Merrimack, who couldn't get in with Fairley Dickinson 153 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 2: in that whole or deal. The one thing I will 154 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:08,200 Speaker 2: say that's interesting is they've been better against the spread 155 00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 2: Florid Atlantic twenty four to eleven and one against the 156 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:13,160 Speaker 2: spread this season. You have a tight game, it's just 157 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:15,560 Speaker 2: about winning, but they have been a cover machine. 158 00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:17,720 Speaker 3: Now we look on the other side for the other 159 00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:21,640 Speaker 3: national semifinal, Miami against Yukon Miami. For me, it begins 160 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:23,720 Speaker 3: and ends with Jim layer Naga. I mean, this guy 161 00:07:23,760 --> 00:07:26,720 Speaker 3: has been an absolute atm as an underdog, which just 162 00:07:26,840 --> 00:07:30,240 Speaker 3: proves that when he's in a position to have to 163 00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:33,640 Speaker 3: help his team elevate their play with in game adjustments, 164 00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:34,200 Speaker 3: he's done it. 165 00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:35,560 Speaker 1: You saw it on full display. 166 00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:37,840 Speaker 3: And that comeback against Texas, a Texas team that was 167 00:07:37,920 --> 00:07:40,800 Speaker 3: undefeated on the season, when leading at half, he goes ahead, 168 00:07:41,000 --> 00:07:43,880 Speaker 3: upsets the apple cart there and punches the ticket for 169 00:07:43,920 --> 00:07:46,120 Speaker 3: the Kynes. I mean, don't tell anybody now, but maybe 170 00:07:46,200 --> 00:07:48,240 Speaker 3: Miami's a basketball school. What are your thoughts on the 171 00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:51,240 Speaker 3: Hurricanes here against Yukon and as I mentioned before, chance 172 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:52,240 Speaker 3: of winning two in Houston. 173 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 2: I kind of find it funny that before the tournament 174 00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:58,800 Speaker 2: everyone makes fun of the ACC No team's good, this, this, 175 00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:01,040 Speaker 2: and that and correct me. Believe it's six of the 176 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:03,400 Speaker 2: last eight years ACC team has been in the final. 177 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:05,960 Speaker 2: So they get there, they find a way. This time. 178 00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:09,760 Speaker 2: It's not Carolina or Duke, it's Miami. So interesting. Nonetheless, 179 00:08:09,800 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 2: the one thing I will say, and you noted on it, underdogs. 180 00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:15,640 Speaker 2: Just the number seems fake. Twenty and five against spread 181 00:08:15,680 --> 00:08:17,920 Speaker 2: as an underdog over the last two seasons for Miami 182 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:21,760 Speaker 2: thirty three and twelve over the past three years. You know, 183 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:24,920 Speaker 2: there's like three hundred four hundred coaches in our data 184 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:27,520 Speaker 2: base over the last three seasons, Larenega is the best 185 00:08:27,640 --> 00:08:29,640 Speaker 2: against the spread, So we're gonna say if he can 186 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:31,559 Speaker 2: keep a rolling here. That five and a half number 187 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:33,959 Speaker 2: also kind of large for this type of game. You 188 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:36,320 Speaker 2: don't tend to see that in too many areas. I 189 00:08:36,360 --> 00:08:39,079 Speaker 2: believe the biggest upsets start at like the six and 190 00:08:39,160 --> 00:08:41,200 Speaker 2: seven mark. But so five and a half is a 191 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:41,839 Speaker 2: decent number. 192 00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:45,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's interesting that the Laernega data as it relates 193 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:47,439 Speaker 3: to him being an underdog. Just through my own research 194 00:08:47,480 --> 00:08:50,120 Speaker 3: looking back to him taking over the program in twenty eleven, 195 00:08:50,280 --> 00:08:53,960 Speaker 3: he's the sixth most profitable underdog coach against the spread 196 00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:56,680 Speaker 3: of high major teams because you have some programs in 197 00:08:56,720 --> 00:08:58,120 Speaker 3: there that just don't have that many games. 198 00:08:58,360 --> 00:08:59,760 Speaker 1: You have a lot of programs from. 199 00:08:59,840 --> 00:09:04,439 Speaker 3: Very low major conferences where potentially there's some market influence 200 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 3: where numbers are just way off. You're gonna get well 201 00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:09,000 Speaker 3: calibrated numbers at you know, at the high major level, 202 00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:11,680 Speaker 3: particularly in the AZC. So just you know, even goes 203 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:14,080 Speaker 3: deeper into how good of a coach learr Niga is. 204 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:17,160 Speaker 2: Honestly, Mike, this is the crazy one. If Miami cuts 205 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:19,600 Speaker 2: down the nets in Houston, Laarra Naga will not only 206 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:22,240 Speaker 2: become the oldest coach to win a national championship at 207 00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:25,520 Speaker 2: seventy three years, four months, and twenty one days, it 208 00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:27,400 Speaker 2: will also become the oldest coach to win a title 209 00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:31,200 Speaker 2: across all the four major sports, including college basketball and 210 00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:34,440 Speaker 2: college football. Couldn't believe it when I saw it, or 211 00:09:34,520 --> 00:09:37,040 Speaker 2: heard it or did it, but it is the damn truth. 212 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:38,760 Speaker 1: Eat your heart at Dusty Baker. 213 00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:42,240 Speaker 3: Now he's up against a coach who may be finding 214 00:09:42,280 --> 00:09:45,000 Speaker 3: himself in deep water. Here Hurley looks as though he's 215 00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:48,960 Speaker 3: very comfortable at this point, borderline overly confident. You look 216 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:51,720 Speaker 3: at kind of the media and press availability that he's 217 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:54,920 Speaker 3: done so far. They were struggling a bit in Big 218 00:09:54,960 --> 00:09:57,440 Speaker 3: East play, and they figured some things out schematically, and 219 00:09:57,480 --> 00:09:59,480 Speaker 3: no one's been able to figure them out ever since. 220 00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:02,560 Speaker 3: Is it this Yukon wagon just too strong at this point? 221 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:05,480 Speaker 3: Where is there any historical data to point two to say, yes, 222 00:10:05,679 --> 00:10:08,520 Speaker 3: you've won via blowout four games in a row in the tournament, 223 00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:10,200 Speaker 3: but maybe it's time to get off that wagon. 224 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:12,679 Speaker 2: Sure, So we'll start with your first point, because I 225 00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:14,319 Speaker 2: feel like that's the most notable. It's kind of what 226 00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:16,720 Speaker 2: everyone's talking about, the fact that they're just beating people 227 00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:18,920 Speaker 2: by so many points per game. So the Huskies are 228 00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:21,440 Speaker 2: the tenth team to win their first four NCAA Tournament 229 00:10:21,440 --> 00:10:24,720 Speaker 2: games by fifteen points or more. Only five of the 230 00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:27,080 Speaker 2: previous nine teams to win all went on to win 231 00:10:27,120 --> 00:10:29,760 Speaker 2: it all, So if you look at it from that perspective, 232 00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:31,800 Speaker 2: I think you probably would have assumed a little bit 233 00:10:31,840 --> 00:10:34,480 Speaker 2: of a higher percentage number there. And the last team 234 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:37,040 Speaker 2: in the spot, of course, Gonzaga in twenty twenty one, 235 00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:42,080 Speaker 2: rolled the field, got there and lost, while Connecticut, ironically enough, 236 00:10:42,120 --> 00:10:44,120 Speaker 2: back in two thousand and four, was the last to 237 00:10:44,200 --> 00:10:47,240 Speaker 2: actually win it all. So to me, I think they 238 00:10:47,280 --> 00:10:49,280 Speaker 2: have a pretty good shot, especially with everyone else in 239 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:52,400 Speaker 2: the field, which you also tend to see. Miami's won 240 00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:55,960 Speaker 2: what two consecutive games straight up as an underdog, I 241 00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:59,280 Speaker 2: believe if I have that right, usually those teams don't 242 00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:02,680 Speaker 2: keep that type of run coming, especially with the dog, 243 00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 2: the dog, the dog, you know. And I think if 244 00:11:05,120 --> 00:11:06,720 Speaker 2: they make the title game, it's probably going to be 245 00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 2: close to a fifty to fifty shot against San Diego 246 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:12,280 Speaker 2: State and FAU, they'll probably be close, you know, it'll 247 00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:14,720 Speaker 2: probably be close to that number. And the last thing 248 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:19,079 Speaker 2: I'll note early markets, we're recording this on Wednesday. People 249 00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:23,840 Speaker 2: listen about Thursday is listen. Yukon's at sixty two percent 250 00:11:23,840 --> 00:11:26,600 Speaker 2: of tickets right now, so they are the biggest public 251 00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:29,520 Speaker 2: side among the four teams. Everyone's back in the wagon 252 00:11:29,559 --> 00:11:32,480 Speaker 2: on the Huskies, and honestly, if it gets to sixty 253 00:11:32,559 --> 00:11:35,520 Speaker 2: three percent or more, only three teams have done that 254 00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:38,400 Speaker 2: in the Final four or title game since two thousand 255 00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 2: and five. That's from our bet Labs database. So people 256 00:11:41,480 --> 00:11:42,840 Speaker 2: are loving the Huskies. 257 00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:44,880 Speaker 1: As it relates to people loving anybody. 258 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:48,640 Speaker 3: Certainly, there's a threshold where for an NFL game, for example, 259 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:51,960 Speaker 3: when it gets over seventy five eighty eighty five percent. 260 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:53,599 Speaker 3: All of a sudden, it's like you don't have to 261 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:56,199 Speaker 3: be a genius to think in a contrarian mindset and 262 00:11:56,240 --> 00:11:58,640 Speaker 3: go the opposite direction. How has the public performed against 263 00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:00,840 Speaker 3: the closing number in the final four in recent years? 264 00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:05,040 Speaker 2: It's been atrocious. It's been really really bad, and more 265 00:12:05,160 --> 00:12:08,480 Speaker 2: so recently than like full scope. So let's just go 266 00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:11,200 Speaker 2: with the data here. Sin's two thousand and five, twenty three, 267 00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:14,160 Speaker 2: twenty seven and one against the spread for the public. 268 00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:16,960 Speaker 2: Now you ask yourself, what's the public that's fifty one 269 00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:21,440 Speaker 2: percent of tickets on the spread or more obviously, and 270 00:12:21,559 --> 00:12:23,120 Speaker 2: when you look at it from that point of view, 271 00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:26,199 Speaker 2: Owen three against the sprint last year in the final 272 00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:29,120 Speaker 2: four in title game and five and thirteen against the 273 00:12:29,160 --> 00:12:32,200 Speaker 2: spread over the last six years. So public hasn't fared 274 00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:34,839 Speaker 2: well on this spot. And if Yukon makes the title game, 275 00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:37,000 Speaker 2: I can almost assure you they're going to be getting 276 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:37,600 Speaker 2: the Ticke account. 277 00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:41,080 Speaker 3: So in terms of trend betting as well, I know 278 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:43,640 Speaker 3: a lot is made of the large arena and how 279 00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:45,840 Speaker 3: that can play to the under or three point shooting. 280 00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:47,120 Speaker 1: Have you found anything to. 281 00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:49,280 Speaker 3: Correlate with that I know to a certain degree it's 282 00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:52,240 Speaker 3: been debunked in recent years that three point shooting just 283 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:53,960 Speaker 3: falls off a cliff in the Final four in some 284 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:55,120 Speaker 3: of these larger venues. 285 00:12:55,240 --> 00:12:57,280 Speaker 1: But did you find anything interesting along your way? 286 00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:00,920 Speaker 2: So I first looked at you Houston, right, because you 287 00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:03,200 Speaker 2: want to look at the specific stadium and the stadium 288 00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:05,600 Speaker 2: they're playing in. Currently. This will be the fourth Final 289 00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:07,840 Speaker 2: four set in the city of Houston. The winners are UCLA, 290 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:11,120 Speaker 2: Yukon and Villanova. You know, kind of noise in that sense. 291 00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:13,360 Speaker 2: But I think what is interesting is this will be 292 00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:16,000 Speaker 2: this Final four will be the fourteenth college basketball game 293 00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:19,400 Speaker 2: played it Reliant Slash Energy Stadium since two thousand and five. 294 00:13:19,520 --> 00:13:22,520 Speaker 2: Under is eight and five in those thirteen games, going 295 00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:25,880 Speaker 2: under by five point eight points per game. However, the 296 00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:29,160 Speaker 2: twenty sixteen Final four, so all three games go over 297 00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:31,559 Speaker 2: the total. And the one thing I did look at 298 00:13:31,600 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 2: which I find a little intriguing, second half unders are 299 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:37,840 Speaker 2: six and two in those games. So I think we 300 00:13:37,880 --> 00:13:41,200 Speaker 2: would more think the opposite. As I was talking to 301 00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:44,360 Speaker 2: our colleague Darren Ravel earlier about like over unders, and 302 00:13:44,400 --> 00:13:46,240 Speaker 2: he liked the under in the first half and this 303 00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:48,599 Speaker 2: and that it's interesting that first half unders in the 304 00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 2: Final four are nine and twelve and one to the 305 00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:54,760 Speaker 2: under since twenty eleven, So it's really an over trend 306 00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:56,559 Speaker 2: in that sense, and I just don't really think I 307 00:13:56,559 --> 00:13:58,520 Speaker 2: would have thought that with the big stadiums and the 308 00:13:58,520 --> 00:13:59,360 Speaker 2: bad shooting early. 309 00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:03,040 Speaker 3: I think it's pretty easy to talk yourself into either 310 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:05,280 Speaker 3: San Diego State or FAU. You can make a lot 311 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:08,440 Speaker 3: of statistical arguments. I personally lean with the Aztex because 312 00:14:08,480 --> 00:14:10,880 Speaker 3: I think Brian Dutcher is the better coach, and he's 313 00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:13,520 Speaker 3: done so well with four plus days to prepare. He's 314 00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:16,040 Speaker 3: done very well as an underdog and at neutral sites. 315 00:14:16,280 --> 00:14:18,839 Speaker 3: But the other matchup I just can't quite figure out. 316 00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:21,040 Speaker 3: I think the number of first starters is very well 317 00:14:21,080 --> 00:14:23,480 Speaker 3: calibrated between the Hurricanes and Huskies. So I just keep 318 00:14:23,520 --> 00:14:27,040 Speaker 3: going back to this coaching disparity in terms of experience, 319 00:14:27,280 --> 00:14:29,360 Speaker 3: not just the fact that Larry Andega is coaching and 320 00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:31,800 Speaker 3: coaching so well deep into his seventies, but also this 321 00:14:31,880 --> 00:14:34,320 Speaker 3: is his second trip to the Final four, whereas it's 322 00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:38,120 Speaker 3: Hurley's first. Am I overstating that is that too much 323 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:38,760 Speaker 3: of a big deal. 324 00:14:39,600 --> 00:14:41,520 Speaker 2: I mean, I look at it from one thing. I've 325 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:43,680 Speaker 2: heard a bunch of TV this week. People have been 326 00:14:43,720 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 2: asking Larynego a lot about the two thousand and six 327 00:14:46,000 --> 00:14:48,200 Speaker 2: Final four trip, you know, if there's anything he can 328 00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:51,200 Speaker 2: glean there, anything he can learn. And the interesting thing 329 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:54,840 Speaker 2: that he did say is shooting as bad early. And 330 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:57,440 Speaker 2: that's why I was so interested about that first half trend. 331 00:14:57,560 --> 00:14:59,840 Speaker 2: He said, the George Mason team got out there and 332 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,120 Speaker 2: and the stadium just kind of took them over. Like 333 00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:04,360 Speaker 2: that first half. He said, we could have played ten 334 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:07,320 Speaker 2: times better than we did. So looking at the actual 335 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:10,920 Speaker 2: data in NCAA tournament history, the coach with more Final 336 00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:14,240 Speaker 2: four experience wins about sixty three percent of the games, 337 00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:18,200 Speaker 2: absolutely no shock. In the Final four and National Championship, 338 00:15:18,360 --> 00:15:22,120 Speaker 2: it actually lowers to about sixty two percent. Now since 339 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:26,120 Speaker 2: the start of seeding, the experience final four coach is 340 00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:29,800 Speaker 2: sixty one percent straight up and only like fifty three 341 00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:32,440 Speaker 2: to fifty four percent against the spread in those games. 342 00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:34,920 Speaker 2: So to me, it's a bit of a wash. It 343 00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:37,160 Speaker 2: has tons more to do with the team. I think 344 00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:38,960 Speaker 2: it has more to do with actually the first half 345 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:42,000 Speaker 2: and like the early adjustment in the game and then 346 00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:44,200 Speaker 2: once you get into the rhythm, I think the teams 347 00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:44,640 Speaker 2: take over. 348 00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:48,120 Speaker 3: It's interesting looking through your data and everything that you 349 00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:52,520 Speaker 3: prepared for this conversation that I was able to from 350 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:55,720 Speaker 3: a selfish perspective, just get to take through the rest 351 00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:59,000 Speaker 3: and prep angle. All four of these coaches have done 352 00:15:59,000 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 3: well with that. That additional prep in terms of set 353 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:05,680 Speaker 3: plays or forcing certain players to have to shoot when 354 00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:09,240 Speaker 3: you're on the defensive end. Is that an overstated element 355 00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 3: or is it really night and day compared to earlier 356 00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:13,320 Speaker 3: in the tournament where you have that quick thirty six 357 00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 3: hour turnaround. In some cases where you're relying on your 358 00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:19,400 Speaker 3: assistant coaches maybe to prep ahead for two opponents as 359 00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:22,640 Speaker 3: opposed to one, where now it's really shrunk down, you 360 00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:25,600 Speaker 3: have all this extra time to get into the weeds 361 00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:29,520 Speaker 3: and maybe show off some elements either offensively or defensively 362 00:16:29,680 --> 00:16:32,200 Speaker 3: set plays that you haven't throughout the season. Do you 363 00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:34,320 Speaker 3: think this is a big enough thing to really kind 364 00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:36,880 Speaker 3: of lean on. I know in this case is basically 365 00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:38,800 Speaker 3: a wash because they're also good at it. But is 366 00:16:38,800 --> 00:16:40,800 Speaker 3: this something you think about pretty regularly when it comes 367 00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:41,520 Speaker 3: to tournament's time. 368 00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:44,040 Speaker 2: I actually think about the opposite, So I think the 369 00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:49,880 Speaker 2: longer prep is less relatable towards gambling than the shorter prep. 370 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:54,000 Speaker 2: I think the one two day rest statistics. When I 371 00:16:54,040 --> 00:16:57,720 Speaker 2: look at ats, especially margins and like quick turnarounds, and 372 00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:00,440 Speaker 2: having to look at teams the longer preps, I think 373 00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:02,280 Speaker 2: it evens out and I think it's It was very 374 00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:04,439 Speaker 2: ironic when I went to look at the four coaches 375 00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:06,560 Speaker 2: I was looking for, you know, one team was going 376 00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:08,600 Speaker 2: to be bad or one coach wasn't gonna be able 377 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:10,840 Speaker 2: to perform as well. Now, the one thing I will say, 378 00:17:10,920 --> 00:17:13,840 Speaker 2: larynag has had a large sample size, right, that's like 379 00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:16,840 Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty games. But the other coach is, 380 00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:20,440 Speaker 2: like you said, sixty percent fifty percent, you know, making 381 00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:21,960 Speaker 2: tons of money for their betters. 382 00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:24,760 Speaker 3: So two questions to get you out of here on first, 383 00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:27,280 Speaker 3: how did your final four end up shaking out? And 384 00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:30,040 Speaker 3: then second, who do you like in these national semifinals? 385 00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:31,720 Speaker 3: And to cut down the nets on Monday night. 386 00:17:32,080 --> 00:17:34,879 Speaker 2: So this is the best story I really have. I 387 00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:36,919 Speaker 2: was in a pool with like twenty or thirty people. 388 00:17:37,200 --> 00:17:39,560 Speaker 2: I picked Arizona to win it all. I was out 389 00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:42,120 Speaker 2: on the first day and I just won my pool 390 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:46,720 Speaker 2: because everyone else lost, and I ended up having some Texas, 391 00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:50,000 Speaker 2: some Creighton, some Yukon's I got some points and ended 392 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:52,320 Speaker 2: up winning it, and nobody in the pool picked the winner. 393 00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:55,479 Speaker 2: So I think that's actually going to be kind of common. 394 00:17:55,720 --> 00:17:57,200 Speaker 2: I think you're going to see a lot of pools 395 00:17:57,200 --> 00:17:59,399 Speaker 2: out there where someone who might have been added out 396 00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:02,280 Speaker 2: of it really early, someone who you know, picking colors, 397 00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:06,360 Speaker 2: picking mascots usually ends up happening, but this year absolute chaos. 398 00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:08,399 Speaker 2: I had my cat pick a pool, like you know, 399 00:18:08,680 --> 00:18:12,720 Speaker 2: things happened, so and then who I actually like? Listen. 400 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:15,719 Speaker 2: I think San Diego State is really really good at 401 00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:17,800 Speaker 2: what they do, and I think if they control the 402 00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 2: pace in the game and keep it low, I think 403 00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:22,840 Speaker 2: they're going to advance. What I would do, I take 404 00:18:22,880 --> 00:18:24,800 Speaker 2: the dogs. I would take the two to two and 405 00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:27,399 Speaker 2: a half with San Diego State. I would start with 406 00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:30,639 Speaker 2: Florida at Florida Atlantic, and then I'm waiting for six. 407 00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:33,400 Speaker 2: I think five and a half is a little bit, 408 00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:36,080 Speaker 2: a little bit scary when it comes to one possession 409 00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 2: two possession games. If it got to six, I'd take 410 00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:40,960 Speaker 2: Miami and I think Yukon's gonna win, but I think 411 00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:41,600 Speaker 2: it's gonna be tight. 412 00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:45,800 Speaker 3: And then in a hypothetical matchup between the Aztecs and Huskies. 413 00:18:46,040 --> 00:18:49,400 Speaker 3: Is Yukon just gonna overwhelm them again? And honestly, how 414 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:51,320 Speaker 3: many times are we going to do this with Yukon 415 00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 3: where they just get hot at the right time and 416 00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:54,919 Speaker 3: turn into a wagon. 417 00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:57,480 Speaker 1: This would be what the third time in fifteen years? 418 00:18:57,840 --> 00:19:00,199 Speaker 2: Yeah, I gotta go with Yukon. Like the The thing 419 00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:03,040 Speaker 2: that scares me in the title game would be exactly 420 00:19:03,080 --> 00:19:06,240 Speaker 2: what scares every team facing San Diego State, which is 421 00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:09,000 Speaker 2: you absolutely never get to play the game you want 422 00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:12,160 Speaker 2: to play right every time you face Sandy, And that's 423 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:14,840 Speaker 2: kind of the reason they've gone under in twelve straight games. 424 00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:18,040 Speaker 2: They control the game, they control the pace, and I 425 00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:20,800 Speaker 2: think Hurley's good enough to try to overcome that. But God, 426 00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:23,200 Speaker 2: that scares me. And that's why I kind of think 427 00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:25,880 Speaker 2: that if San Diego State does get to that title game, 428 00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:27,800 Speaker 2: they probably have a better chance in Florida Atlantic. 429 00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:30,840 Speaker 3: So in terms of my final four, I did have 430 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:33,679 Speaker 3: Yukon in it, so you know, kudos to me on 431 00:19:33,720 --> 00:19:35,960 Speaker 3: that one, but I'm really carrying the banner. I have 432 00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:38,680 Speaker 3: one hundred to one ticket on San Diego State, and 433 00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:40,640 Speaker 3: I had my two year old up in the middle 434 00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:42,520 Speaker 3: of the night about six weeks ago and it took 435 00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:45,080 Speaker 3: forever again to sleep. He was teething, and I walked 436 00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:46,680 Speaker 3: out of the bedroom. I thought to myself, I deserve 437 00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:48,080 Speaker 3: a treat. I'm going to play a couple of hands 438 00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:50,639 Speaker 3: at blackjack. I won five bucks. I put it on 439 00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:53,040 Speaker 3: FAU three hundred to one to win the national title. 440 00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:55,720 Speaker 3: So here I am, thanks to my son Henry. With 441 00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:58,280 Speaker 3: at least one team in the national Championship for the 442 00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:01,080 Speaker 3: mid major ranks, I think Sandy Goo State gets it done. 443 00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:04,760 Speaker 3: This has been an inexplicable run because if you asked 444 00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:08,040 Speaker 3: me before the first weekend, the second weekend, I was 445 00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:10,640 Speaker 3: bullish on San Diego State, with the caveat always being 446 00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:13,760 Speaker 3: Matt Bradley has to play really well. Matt Bradley has 447 00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:16,680 Speaker 3: not played well. He's been an incredible shooting funk six 448 00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:19,600 Speaker 3: for twenty seven in his last three games. Trammell ends 449 00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:22,879 Speaker 3: up showing up huge and not a huge surprise to 450 00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:25,200 Speaker 3: me having watched him play at Seattle where he carried 451 00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:27,159 Speaker 3: so much of the offensive load. But that's not what 452 00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:28,680 Speaker 3: he's been asked to do for the assex. All of 453 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:31,399 Speaker 3: a sudden, he's handling that element of it, but everything 454 00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:34,719 Speaker 3: else has been piecemeal on the offensive end for STSU. 455 00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:37,280 Speaker 3: I think Bradley finally wakes up, gives him fifteen to 456 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:39,880 Speaker 3: twenty points in this game, gets the national title game. 457 00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:40,720 Speaker 1: I think the. 458 00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:42,879 Speaker 3: Number as I mentioned is just about right between the 459 00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:45,600 Speaker 3: Hurricanes and Huskies. I think it will end up actually 460 00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:48,080 Speaker 3: being a five to eight point win. Let's call it 461 00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:50,960 Speaker 3: that for Yukon. And then in the title game, I 462 00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:53,960 Speaker 3: think there's just too many advantages for Yukon, too many 463 00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:56,200 Speaker 3: outs on the board, because if they don't shoot well, 464 00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:59,040 Speaker 3: they're the best offensive rebounding team arguably in the whole country, 465 00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:03,160 Speaker 3: and they can just overwhelm people defensively because of their 466 00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:06,400 Speaker 3: bigs and really their guard play, which was a liability 467 00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:08,840 Speaker 3: in January, has now become a strength. So there's just 468 00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:11,520 Speaker 3: no hole to poke in this resume. Sall go ahead 469 00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,399 Speaker 3: with Yukon over SDSU. What are your thoughts on that? 470 00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:18,600 Speaker 3: Anything that you take exception to given your advanced statistical 471 00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:20,040 Speaker 3: knowledge and prowess. 472 00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:22,640 Speaker 2: So it's funny. I was gonna use this stat kind 473 00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:24,399 Speaker 2: of as a bow at the bottom, and it's funny 474 00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:27,000 Speaker 2: based off what exactly you just said. So Connecticut enters 475 00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:29,000 Speaker 2: the final four. Is the betting favorite. We all know 476 00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:31,880 Speaker 2: that they're actually odds on at the moment, and San 477 00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:34,440 Speaker 2: Diego State is number two, So that kind of tells 478 00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:36,920 Speaker 2: you that one of those two teams are more likely 479 00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:39,480 Speaker 2: to win it all just based on history. In seventeen 480 00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:42,120 Speaker 2: of the past eighteen final fours, one of the two 481 00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:44,040 Speaker 2: favorites entering the weekend went on to win it all. 482 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:48,080 Speaker 2: The only exception twenty fourteen Yukon again with the outliers. 483 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:51,800 Speaker 2: So odds tell you that Yukon or San Diego State 484 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:54,760 Speaker 2: will find a way. Basically, if there's one upset, the 485 00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:56,720 Speaker 2: other team won't get upset, and that team will end 486 00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:59,200 Speaker 2: up winning, beating the team that just performed the upset 487 00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:02,280 Speaker 2: on the other sides. So I like what you're talking about. 488 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:04,879 Speaker 2: I think one of those teams do end up getting 489 00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:07,880 Speaker 2: it done, just based off the flaws of Florida Atlantic 490 00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:11,760 Speaker 2: and Miami. So I think of Florida Atlantic Yukon title 491 00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:15,480 Speaker 2: or San Diego State Yukon title probably is the most 492 00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:16,160 Speaker 2: likely scenario. 493 00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:18,960 Speaker 3: Well, that was a pretty bow to put on the 494 00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:21,600 Speaker 3: ends of this Action Network podcast brought to you by 495 00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:24,480 Speaker 3: Fan Duel for Evan Abrams. I'm Mike Calabreys, and thanks 496 00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:27,880 Speaker 3: so much for listening and enjoy the last remnants of 497 00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:31,040 Speaker 3: the madness is We're headed for a cold, dark college 498 00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:34,400 Speaker 3: sport offseason, no college football, no college basketball. So thank 499 00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:36,800 Speaker 3: you so much Evan for your work helping unpack all 500 00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:39,960 Speaker 3: of it, and for our listeners for trying to find 501 00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:42,280 Speaker 3: some winners here. Hopefully we offer it up at least 502 00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:52,360 Speaker 3: two more, maybe three. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 503 00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:55,720 Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 504 00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,520 Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 505 00:22:58,600 --> 00:22:59,440 Speaker 2: hundred Gambler