1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:13,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene

2
00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,560
Speaker 1: Jay Lee. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

3
00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520
Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

4
00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:28,000
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg ye

5
00:00:31,960 --> 00:00:35,520
Speaker 1: Out Wire. Bt i G, Chief Equity and Derivative Strategist.

6
00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:37,600
Speaker 1: I'm not going to bury the lead here, Julian. Try

7
00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:39,120
Speaker 1: not to do that on a daily basis, but I'm

8
00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:42,120
Speaker 1: definitely not going to do it today to rate cuts

9
00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:45,960
Speaker 1: guys up to a bt i G. Yeah. No, Well, look,

10
00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:51,159
Speaker 1: first of all, we're historians, and the FED cuts rates

11
00:00:51,479 --> 00:00:56,040
Speaker 1: after hiking cycles. Generally they start within five to six

12
00:00:56,080 --> 00:00:59,840
Speaker 1: months after the last hike UM and so so the

13
00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:02,600
Speaker 1: one time they didn't was two thousand and seven. But

14
00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:07,040
Speaker 1: it's more than that. The FED is very cognizant of

15
00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:10,360
Speaker 1: the message of the yield curve. We're not believers in

16
00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:13,800
Speaker 1: in in the yield curve in version. We we strictly

17
00:01:13,800 --> 00:01:16,600
Speaker 1: adhere to twos tends, but the rest of the market

18
00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:20,520
Speaker 1: does look at it. Uh So, the psychology of recession

19
00:01:21,000 --> 00:01:24,000
Speaker 1: has started to form. We saw that in the plunging yield.

20
00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:28,319
Speaker 1: But more importantly, the FED wants inflation. The Fed is

21
00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:32,720
Speaker 1: is very focused on stoking I want inflation to come on.

22
00:01:32,880 --> 00:01:37,160
Speaker 1: There's technological change starting with Uber John's I said on

23
00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:39,640
Speaker 1: TV today, John, did you really try to get thirty

24
00:01:39,640 --> 00:01:44,880
Speaker 1: thousand shares of Uber popped on Uber? Can I just

25
00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:48,440
Speaker 1: editorialize your folks, it's like worldwide. After doing this show

26
00:01:48,520 --> 00:01:51,840
Speaker 1: for forty years, John, you've been a saint about this.

27
00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:56,360
Speaker 1: The I p O giddiness, it's just ridiculous. While the

28
00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:59,160
Speaker 1: reporting from Bloomberg suggesting that we could get a filing

29
00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:01,640
Speaker 1: for that ip as soon as tomorrow like a RAM,

30
00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:06,000
Speaker 1: and maybe a listing as soon as May for Ruber.

31
00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:08,360
Speaker 1: So the IPOs are snacking up. You know what some

32
00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:11,160
Speaker 1: people will be saying, Julian, this is it the C suite,

33
00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:13,040
Speaker 1: as some of these private companies see, this is the

34
00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:16,520
Speaker 1: final opportunity. The window is closing, Let's go public. What

35
00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:19,720
Speaker 1: do you say back to that, Well, there's no question

36
00:02:19,800 --> 00:02:22,720
Speaker 1: that you know, when you think about the activity the

37
00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:26,240
Speaker 1: last several weeks, there's been some major, major deals, major

38
00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:29,600
Speaker 1: ones coming and you could say that our point of

39
00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:32,440
Speaker 1: view is that what you've really seen is a lot

40
00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:37,079
Speaker 1: of that risk has occurred through the private investment markets

41
00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:40,840
Speaker 1: over the last call a dozen years or so UM

42
00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:45,079
Speaker 1: and in actuality when you think about evaluations, we're not

43
00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:47,239
Speaker 1: to that froth point yet. So let's dig into the

44
00:02:47,320 --> 00:02:49,880
Speaker 1: rate cut call and why you still think stocks can

45
00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:52,320
Speaker 1: go higher. That's hard to reckon sile for so many people.

46
00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:55,840
Speaker 1: If you have the environment that's fertile for a rate

47
00:02:55,880 --> 00:02:58,880
Speaker 1: cut that is tipping, not the environment that risk assets

48
00:02:58,880 --> 00:03:01,960
Speaker 1: perform well in Why do you, at the same time

49
00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:06,320
Speaker 1: as predicting forecasting two rate cuts this year simultaneously forecast

50
00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:10,920
Speaker 1: a higher equity market because it doesn't necessarily have to

51
00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:14,120
Speaker 1: be that sort of seeing recession in the whites of

52
00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:16,919
Speaker 1: the market's eyes if you look at it UH in

53
00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:22,919
Speaker 1: a time where we think there are similarities. The Fed

54
00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:27,040
Speaker 1: cut five months after the last hike in in early

55
00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:33,040
Speaker 1: just because inflation UH and growth dipped briefly. We are

56
00:03:33,080 --> 00:03:35,760
Speaker 1: in the midst of the soft patch. We're not necessarily

57
00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:38,600
Speaker 1: in the midst of a recession of any sort. But

58
00:03:38,720 --> 00:03:42,440
Speaker 1: the Fed wants to also give the rest of central

59
00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:47,240
Speaker 1: banks UH flexibility and that means rate cutting. Julian, The

60
00:03:47,320 --> 00:03:49,520
Speaker 1: charm of your research notes is the first two pages

61
00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:51,240
Speaker 1: are in English, and then the rest of it is

62
00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:55,160
Speaker 1: all this derivative mumbo jumbo which basically centers around what's

63
00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:57,640
Speaker 1: the bet of the market, what's the bet of the

64
00:03:57,680 --> 00:04:00,840
Speaker 1: market right now? Like what actually are hedge funds doing,

65
00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:03,560
Speaker 1: what's the long only buy side doing? What are we

66
00:04:03,640 --> 00:04:07,720
Speaker 1: doing actually doing and not talking about? Well, the bet

67
00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:10,480
Speaker 1: in the market is that equities are going higher, But

68
00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:15,480
Speaker 1: interestingly enough, that has been a very grudging bet over

69
00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:19,040
Speaker 1: the last several months, and and in fact, without without Gamma,

70
00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:22,599
Speaker 1: there's no pop to it, exactly exactly, And and our

71
00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:25,440
Speaker 1: our concern in the very near term is that this

72
00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:29,000
Speaker 1: vaal selling has gotten a bit too carried away, well,

73
00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:32,440
Speaker 1: like February of year ago carried away well. So there

74
00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:35,920
Speaker 1: are actually two examples. There was late two thousand and

75
00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:39,920
Speaker 1: seventeen when val sellers were so extreme that they actually

76
00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:43,640
Speaker 1: ran to the outside. But also like the same as

77
00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:47,440
Speaker 1: last year where you had on the downside move is

78
00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:51,159
Speaker 1: comment John Gamma, g A M m am in the Greeks.

79
00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:53,680
Speaker 1: We're doing the Greeks today. It's Greek onesday. Looking for

80
00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:56,840
Speaker 1: a short term pop involva. Over the long term risk

81
00:04:56,839 --> 00:04:59,200
Speaker 1: assets performed well. Just walk me through the thinking care

82
00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:03,040
Speaker 1: of but what time. That's exactly right, so so and

83
00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:07,800
Speaker 1: again this short term pop involved, particularly if you get

84
00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:13,080
Speaker 1: good news, um, you know, market satisfaction with the breggsit extension,

85
00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:19,200
Speaker 1: the potential for some sort of Chinese deal to materialize, um,

86
00:05:19,520 --> 00:05:23,719
Speaker 1: you know, that is where volatility could actually pop on

87
00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:25,440
Speaker 1: the other Okay, we need to talk about that. That's

88
00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:29,320
Speaker 1: a catalyst good news as a catalyst for higher volatility.

89
00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:32,200
Speaker 1: Walk me through it. So if you go back, the

90
00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:34,840
Speaker 1: way to think about this is sort of the end

91
00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:38,840
Speaker 1: of ten, beginning of eighteen, and Tom alluded to it

92
00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:43,240
Speaker 1: with February. Essentially you got into a performance chase and

93
00:05:43,240 --> 00:05:46,160
Speaker 1: there are a lot of people that are behind their benchmarks,

94
00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:51,000
Speaker 1: came into the year under invested, remains somewhat underinvested, and

95
00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:55,599
Speaker 1: that kind of psychology that chase, particularly if the Fed

96
00:05:55,760 --> 00:05:59,840
Speaker 1: continues to indicate that it's got the markets back, uh,

97
00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:02,920
Speaker 1: causes volatility to expand down the opposite. Do you know, Julian,

98
00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:05,280
Speaker 1: it's it's amazing on your channels. That's what John and

99
00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:09,320
Speaker 1: I do every day. We do a performance. Cheez Can

100
00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:11,160
Speaker 1: we talk about a performance just briefly that's going to

101
00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:13,679
Speaker 1: take place on Capitol Hill a little bit later, speaking

102
00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:17,720
Speaker 1: of volatility the House versus Wall Street. That's what it

103
00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:20,720
Speaker 1: feels like, That's what it's teed up for. With Jamie Diamond,

104
00:06:20,800 --> 00:06:24,880
Speaker 1: David Solomon, Brian moynihan, Michael Corbett, James Coleman all going

105
00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:28,520
Speaker 1: up against the House Financial Services Committee? What does that

106
00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:30,880
Speaker 1: bring a little bit later other than theater, what are

107
00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:36,560
Speaker 1: you looking for from that? Julian well being overweight financials?

108
00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:40,000
Speaker 1: It always concerns us when you've got executives testifying on

109
00:06:40,120 --> 00:06:42,240
Speaker 1: Capitol Hill, and it's one of the reasons that were

110
00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:45,719
Speaker 1: neutral rated on technology because we continue to see technic

111
00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:50,160
Speaker 1: technology executives in front of Capitol Hill. Essentially, what they're

112
00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:54,839
Speaker 1: gonna do is try and convince legislators that the system

113
00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:57,680
Speaker 1: is far better off and that they are really, you know,

114
00:06:57,839 --> 00:07:01,359
Speaker 1: socially conscious. In this new age, there's important phrases that

115
00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:04,360
Speaker 1: you see, say the late nineties into two thousand one,

116
00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:08,039
Speaker 1: two thousand six over to two thousand seven. Julian yesterday,

117
00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:11,320
Speaker 1: I'm Blueberg surveillance. We heard one of those phrases of

118
00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:15,520
Speaker 1: the era, the debt hamster wheel? Are we on the

119
00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:18,240
Speaker 1: debt hamster wheel now? Where we're gonna be like two

120
00:07:18,280 --> 00:07:22,560
Speaker 1: thousand six worrying about every ten basis points. UH with

121
00:07:22,680 --> 00:07:25,840
Speaker 1: a yield below two fifty in the ten year, we

122
00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:28,520
Speaker 1: are going to worry about it every ten basis points,

123
00:07:28,640 --> 00:07:31,240
Speaker 1: which goes back to our fall for rate cuts because

124
00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:34,320
Speaker 1: we actually think that if you cut rates, you can

125
00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:39,640
Speaker 1: potentially stimulate inflation expectations increasing the yield at the long

126
00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:42,280
Speaker 1: This is just you know, the guy goes to work

127
00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:47,600
Speaker 1: for Rich Greenfield and he becomes radical, radical, got to

128
00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:50,080
Speaker 1: keep up with Rich. I feel like once she leaves

129
00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:52,960
Speaker 1: the Swiss Bank she becomes unleashed a little bit true.

130
00:07:54,320 --> 00:07:58,400
Speaker 1: There's a lot going on, Thank you getting a manueout BT.

131
00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:15,680
Speaker 1: I g chief E put into rivatives rategy shop glens

132
00:08:15,760 --> 00:08:17,640
Speaker 1: with us with credit Sweete, and I guess shop where

133
00:08:17,640 --> 00:08:19,600
Speaker 1: I want to go is Mr drag. He's going to

134
00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:22,320
Speaker 1: do everything not to move the Euro. And yet you've

135
00:08:22,320 --> 00:08:25,160
Speaker 1: got to decide if there's alpha or pop or gain

136
00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:29,200
Speaker 1: either way in the Euro. Is the Euro movable over

137
00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:34,560
Speaker 1: the next six months? Well, the market has sold implied

138
00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:37,560
Speaker 1: volatility in the Euro in massive size for the market

139
00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:40,840
Speaker 1: certainly thinks that there aren't many reasons for a large

140
00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:44,480
Speaker 1: euro move. I think in terms of today, the biggest

141
00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:48,120
Speaker 1: surprise would be if, as part of the Q and

142
00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:51,959
Speaker 1: a um ECB Chief Drug decides to address head on

143
00:08:52,040 --> 00:08:55,000
Speaker 1: this issue or the stories in the markets around the

144
00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:58,160
Speaker 1: possibility of tiered rates in the future. I think if

145
00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:02,000
Speaker 1: there's a substantial discuss and around that topic, then I

146
00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:03,640
Speaker 1: think the Euro could move, and it would probably be

147
00:09:03,640 --> 00:09:05,719
Speaker 1: to the downside. Let's talk about the move to the

148
00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:07,800
Speaker 1: dance on and how difficult that would be. Euro dollar

149
00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:10,320
Speaker 1: has really struggled to break one two a half and

150
00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:12,720
Speaker 1: we've thrown a lot at it. What is it going

151
00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:15,079
Speaker 1: to take to get the euro to break that level?

152
00:09:16,280 --> 00:09:20,520
Speaker 1: I think it's going to have to be something like

153
00:09:20,520 --> 00:09:22,840
Speaker 1: like what I just described, some something along the lines

154
00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:28,200
Speaker 1: of a conversation that raises the possibility of new innovations

155
00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:32,360
Speaker 1: in monetary policy designed to address more specifically what we

156
00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:37,959
Speaker 1: can see, which is very low inflation, very falling inflation expectations,

157
00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:41,360
Speaker 1: and a high likelihood of the e CV missing its

158
00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:44,880
Speaker 1: targets for inflation in the future. Until now, Drug has

159
00:09:45,040 --> 00:09:48,760
Speaker 1: maintained that ultimately the economy will cover and the inflation

160
00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:52,320
Speaker 1: expectations and inflation itself will move up against So anything

161
00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:55,160
Speaker 1: that suggests that there's a greater risk that that won't happen.

162
00:09:55,640 --> 00:09:57,840
Speaker 1: We would need to see that before the europe can

163
00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:00,840
Speaker 1: conclusively break down through those levels. In John Field, this

164
00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:05,079
Speaker 1: is critical because Shabs and the trenches and this this massive,

165
00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:09,320
Speaker 1: as you call it, binary call. John does coming up

166
00:10:09,360 --> 00:10:11,640
Speaker 1: on what central banks do? What is the e c

167
00:10:11,760 --> 00:10:14,559
Speaker 1: BAS next move. I mean, President drag tease the prospect

168
00:10:14,640 --> 00:10:16,480
Speaker 1: that we could have a tier deposit rate of the

169
00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:19,040
Speaker 1: e c B or they would do something to offset

170
00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:22,200
Speaker 1: the pain of negative interest rates for financial and the

171
00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:24,840
Speaker 1: financial sector. Shahab, It doesn't seem to me that that's

172
00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:28,439
Speaker 1: on the horizon in terms of happening anytime soon. No,

173
00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:31,199
Speaker 1: that's right, and I think that's the reason why, as

174
00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:34,080
Speaker 1: we discussed volatility in the urine imply, volatility is so

175
00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:37,480
Speaker 1: low and one markets are basically betting on the current

176
00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:41,400
Speaker 1: ranges holding um. It would be a surprise if Frankly,

177
00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:44,720
Speaker 1: if today he decides to make a big issue of

178
00:10:44,760 --> 00:10:47,400
Speaker 1: these of these themes. But the thing is, it's still

179
00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:51,840
Speaker 1: difficult to completely give a zero probility to this because

180
00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:55,240
Speaker 1: ultimately it's still the case that the economy is shaky

181
00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:58,640
Speaker 1: and certainly inflation data a very week so that you

182
00:10:58,679 --> 00:11:01,680
Speaker 1: can't really hide from that, and that's why we stair

183
00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:04,839
Speaker 1: alive to this risk dumb question of the day which

184
00:11:04,840 --> 00:11:06,679
Speaker 1: we just take for granted, but I think for a

185
00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:10,719
Speaker 1: lot of our audience, it's not a dumb question. Can

186
00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:16,000
Speaker 1: the ECB cut rates? It's still technically possible. Um, there

187
00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:19,000
Speaker 1: are central banks, for example the Swiss National Bank that

188
00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:22,880
Speaker 1: have even lower rates than the u CBS current rates.

189
00:11:23,240 --> 00:11:26,520
Speaker 1: There's a debate about how useful that would be, particularly

190
00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:31,800
Speaker 1: for bank profitability and therefore credit creation which comes from

191
00:11:31,800 --> 00:11:35,160
Speaker 1: banks ultimately in your area. So but it's but it's

192
00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:38,000
Speaker 1: technically possible. And again that the issue is what does

193
00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:41,840
Speaker 1: the CD do if we go into another major slow

194
00:11:41,880 --> 00:11:45,760
Speaker 1: down with another big fall in inflation expectations when it's

195
00:11:45,840 --> 00:11:48,079
Speaker 1: tool set is as limited as it is, As long

196
00:11:48,120 --> 00:11:50,960
Speaker 1: as the market doesn't perceive there to be a wide

197
00:11:51,080 --> 00:11:54,760
Speaker 1: range of other options, it will still keep open, keeping

198
00:11:54,840 --> 00:11:57,760
Speaker 1: up in mind around the possibility of more negative rates,

199
00:11:57,800 --> 00:12:00,880
Speaker 1: which again, you know, I think hells us that maybe

200
00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:04,120
Speaker 1: the problem lies elsewhere in all of you that if

201
00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:06,040
Speaker 1: they don't go into be a solution, it probably will

202
00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:09,600
Speaker 1: need a fiscal component. UM probably need the countries that

203
00:12:09,760 --> 00:12:12,520
Speaker 1: have room for fiscal expansion, like Germany, to the player

204
00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:15,040
Speaker 1: role in that. But that doesn't seem to be on

205
00:12:15,080 --> 00:12:17,400
Speaker 1: the menu. And Joan, wasn't it ten days ago that

206
00:12:17,559 --> 00:12:20,840
Speaker 1: Cherry Yellen in Asia said exactly what you heard Mr

207
00:12:20,920 --> 00:12:23,160
Speaker 1: Jones say. I think so many people have made this

208
00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:25,400
Speaker 1: point and for whatever reason, Europe just doesn't want to

209
00:12:25,440 --> 00:12:27,760
Speaker 1: explore the policy options Jha. But I just don't know

210
00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:30,760
Speaker 1: when that changes. When does the penny finally drop that

211
00:12:30,840 --> 00:12:35,600
Speaker 1: you need a counter cyclical fiscal policy in Europe. I

212
00:12:35,640 --> 00:12:39,120
Speaker 1: think the difficulty there is it's not so much in

213
00:12:39,160 --> 00:12:42,400
Speaker 1: the fact that it's not been discussed efficiently clearly it has.

214
00:12:42,559 --> 00:12:47,320
Speaker 1: It's just that philosophically, obviously the German has been disinclined

215
00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:49,680
Speaker 1: to go that way, but also maybe they want to

216
00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:54,520
Speaker 1: see more signs of reforms that they approve of in

217
00:12:54,559 --> 00:12:58,160
Speaker 1: the other countries, big countries like France for example. Um

218
00:12:58,320 --> 00:13:01,120
Speaker 1: so there's a quick pro crow thoughts playing out here.

219
00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:04,480
Speaker 1: The question is whether the European economy can sustain itself

220
00:13:04,640 --> 00:13:07,440
Speaker 1: long enough for this to really work itself out. Again.

221
00:13:07,520 --> 00:13:09,720
Speaker 1: This this plays into the view of some who believe

222
00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:12,960
Speaker 1: you need crises to force the issue, and in the

223
00:13:13,000 --> 00:13:17,040
Speaker 1: absence of those nothing much happens, which is why so

224
00:13:17,160 --> 00:13:21,200
Speaker 1: many investors tend to have a structural bearers your review. Well,

225
00:13:21,280 --> 00:13:23,439
Speaker 1: let's talk about that structural bearers your review and talk

226
00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:26,560
Speaker 1: about the cycle as well. At the moment, your view

227
00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:30,400
Speaker 1: is a different degree of bad. It's weak. Will agree

228
00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:32,559
Speaker 1: that it's weak in Europe, but to what degrees you have,

229
00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:37,120
Speaker 1: because manufacturing is very much weak in a recession pretty much,

230
00:13:37,160 --> 00:13:42,000
Speaker 1: services is okay, the hard data is still coming out. Okay,

231
00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:45,160
Speaker 1: the soft data looks terrible. How do you think DR

232
00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:48,240
Speaker 1: actually analyzes the Eurozone economy today with all of those

233
00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:51,920
Speaker 1: different things going on. It's not that clear. It's really

234
00:13:51,920 --> 00:13:56,120
Speaker 1: not clear because there are other problems too. For example,

235
00:13:56,640 --> 00:14:00,720
Speaker 1: we don't know whether the US and President Trump will

236
00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:06,200
Speaker 1: push on and force the issue around auto tariffs, which obviously,

237
00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:08,920
Speaker 1: if the US were to impose auto tarmas in Europe

238
00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:11,960
Speaker 1: would be a new economic shock. Uh and something that

239
00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:14,120
Speaker 1: isn't currently has been talked about, but I wouldn't say

240
00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:16,880
Speaker 1: it's necessarily in the price at this point in time

241
00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:20,000
Speaker 1: for the euro or maybe even drug his assessments of

242
00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:23,040
Speaker 1: the future. So I think it's very difficult because of

243
00:14:23,080 --> 00:14:28,000
Speaker 1: the changing nature of global trade relationships um and especially

244
00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:32,240
Speaker 1: for the Your area being a net exporting region largely

245
00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:34,800
Speaker 1: used to Germany. This is a key factor I think

246
00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:37,480
Speaker 1: in terms the current data, as you suggest, you do

247
00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:41,720
Speaker 1: have the split between the services sector and reasonable employment

248
00:14:42,120 --> 00:14:46,040
Speaker 1: outlooked by European standards on the one hand, and yet

249
00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:49,040
Speaker 1: obviously this terrible manufacturing story and the other. But I

250
00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:51,440
Speaker 1: think ultimately you know what I'm looking at there to

251
00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:54,560
Speaker 1: to solve that dylemma is inflation expectations. And if you

252
00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:57,200
Speaker 1: look at some of the e CVS own favored measures,

253
00:14:57,200 --> 00:15:01,800
Speaker 1: example the five year five year inflation swell for it, uh,

254
00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:04,200
Speaker 1: they'd been falling. These are in session. Expectations are going

255
00:15:04,280 --> 00:15:07,880
Speaker 1: lower and I haven't bounced too much yet either, even

256
00:15:07,880 --> 00:15:12,240
Speaker 1: with positive news like China's upside p M I surprises

257
00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:14,600
Speaker 1: so much. So I think that as long as that's

258
00:15:14,640 --> 00:15:17,800
Speaker 1: the case, we should lean on the side of VCV

259
00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:20,520
Speaker 1: having to be remaining under pressure to come up with

260
00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:23,400
Speaker 1: new ideas. Sham Johns with us with credit sweet, thank

261
00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:39,480
Speaker 1: you so much. Right now. Julia Cornado on a weaker Euro,

262
00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:42,080
Speaker 1: I mean the Euro Julia is just to be direct,

263
00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:45,280
Speaker 1: really floats off of every word that Mr Droggy says.

264
00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:48,680
Speaker 1: What is the significance right now of this weaker euro.

265
00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:53,680
Speaker 1: I mean, nobody really expected the market wasn't really looking

266
00:15:53,720 --> 00:15:57,760
Speaker 1: for dragging to deliver a lot today, and he didn't.

267
00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:01,600
Speaker 1: And he's sort of dancing between the raindrops in his comments,

268
00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:04,520
Speaker 1: sort of indicating that they're studying what they can do

269
00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:07,520
Speaker 1: and that they're willing to do more, but also trying

270
00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:11,400
Speaker 1: to stick to that optimistic baseline. But uh so there's

271
00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:14,840
Speaker 1: a little bit maybe of disappointment that he didn't deliver anything,

272
00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:18,560
Speaker 1: or maybe that he sounds still a little too um

273
00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:22,920
Speaker 1: sanguine and about the outlook and less willing to do

274
00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:26,320
Speaker 1: what needs to be done. But you know, it's it's

275
00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:28,800
Speaker 1: really not a big reaction. I think we're still going

276
00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:31,040
Speaker 1: to be in wait and the mode after this meeting.

277
00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:34,440
Speaker 1: Uh the one what the data do and what the

278
00:16:34,440 --> 00:16:36,800
Speaker 1: ECB comes up with. One question went to what we

279
00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:41,800
Speaker 1: spoke about earlier on Bloomberg's surveillance, this idea of looking

280
00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:46,880
Speaker 1: out five years and then five years forward from there.

281
00:16:46,920 --> 00:16:49,760
Speaker 1: So when when the pros talk about a five year

282
00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:52,560
Speaker 1: five year forward, Am I right, Julia, that that's a

283
00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:57,040
Speaker 1: ten year guestimate of inflation. Yes, that's basically what the

284
00:16:57,080 --> 00:17:00,800
Speaker 1: market is thinking is trend inflation and they're we've seen

285
00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:06,200
Speaker 1: a real deterioration in market expectations for European inflation, and

286
00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:09,159
Speaker 1: I guess that's where probably some of the disappointment comes,

287
00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:13,240
Speaker 1: because Draggy is downplaying that deterioration, saying it's it's just

288
00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:16,240
Speaker 1: risk premium, which is what central bankers say when they

289
00:17:16,280 --> 00:17:18,760
Speaker 1: want to sort of dismiss it and put it okay.

290
00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:21,919
Speaker 1: Does the market have a good track record of getting

291
00:17:22,040 --> 00:17:28,720
Speaker 1: tenure out anything right, let alone inflation. We can't even

292
00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:31,800
Speaker 1: in forecast inflation in the next six months, let alone

293
00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:34,120
Speaker 1: the next five or ten years. So I don't think

294
00:17:34,119 --> 00:17:37,320
Speaker 1: anybody's got a good Julie. We'd go an hour long

295
00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:39,840
Speaker 1: with you, but we've got festivities in Washington. We're gonna

296
00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:41,480
Speaker 1: run to Paul Sweene and I are going to begin

297
00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:44,840
Speaker 1: to frame out a bank conference. We thank Dr Coronado

298
00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:47,640
Speaker 1: for a really good perspective at this morning, across all

299
00:17:47,720 --> 00:18:06,640
Speaker 1: of Bloomberg surveillance on television and radio. We are beyond honored,

300
00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:09,439
Speaker 1: Paul Sweeney and myself to have a gentleman who is

301
00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:11,679
Speaker 1: the only gentleman I would like to talk to on

302
00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:15,000
Speaker 1: this bridge from two thousand eight o nine to where

303
00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:19,159
Speaker 1: we are now, with bankers defending City Group at ugliest

304
00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:24,560
Speaker 1: negative eight billion operating income than positive fourteen billion bailout

305
00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:28,840
Speaker 1: operating income up now, Mike Mayo to twenty three billion

306
00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:32,760
Speaker 1: of operating income. Do these bankers come before Maxine Waters

307
00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:36,840
Speaker 1: minting money look at night and day versus before the

308
00:18:36,880 --> 00:18:39,280
Speaker 1: financial crisis or during the financial crisis, and what you've

309
00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:42,680
Speaker 1: seen so far. So far, we've had four CEOs testify,

310
00:18:42,840 --> 00:18:45,840
Speaker 1: and there's a contrast between three of those and one other.

311
00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:50,080
Speaker 1: And so Bank America they said they recognized the damage

312
00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:53,560
Speaker 1: caused by the company. Morgan Stanley, the CEO, said, if

313
00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:56,080
Speaker 1: not for the support attack payers for a Right Night

314
00:18:56,160 --> 00:18:58,959
Speaker 1: survived and City Group CEO said it was a searing

315
00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:03,480
Speaker 1: x And moynihan went right after ken Lewis secondarily here

316
00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:05,879
Speaker 1: talking about country Wise that it's not my faults, my

317
00:19:05,960 --> 00:19:07,720
Speaker 1: predecessor that fought this from that was one of the

318
00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:11,120
Speaker 1: worst acquisitions. There's a strivancy to tone that the three

319
00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:13,639
Speaker 1: of us, we've all the combined three of us folks

320
00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:16,240
Speaker 1: in the studio have been in forty two thousand three

321
00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:20,160
Speaker 1: D twelve conference calls. This isn't a normal conference call,

322
00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:22,879
Speaker 1: is it. This is pretty unique? But in terms of

323
00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:25,320
Speaker 1: being night and day. There's one statistic that really sums

324
00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:28,280
Speaker 1: up the strength of the banking industry the fixed income market.

325
00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:31,040
Speaker 1: There's a trillion dollars of bank bonds out there and

326
00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:33,080
Speaker 1: the spread of those bank bonds in the last decade

327
00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:35,639
Speaker 1: of decline from seven hundred basis points down to a

328
00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:38,280
Speaker 1: hundred basis points. So if somebody says the banking industry

329
00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:40,520
Speaker 1: is at big risk today, what we would say back

330
00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:42,800
Speaker 1: to them is we have one trillion dollars of bank

331
00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:45,720
Speaker 1: bonds that disagree. That's right. So, Mike, what would be

332
00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:48,399
Speaker 1: a success for these bankers coming in front of the

333
00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:50,840
Speaker 1: Democratic House. They haven't had to do it since the

334
00:19:50,840 --> 00:19:54,159
Speaker 1: financial crisis. This could get ugly. It's starting out pretty

335
00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:56,480
Speaker 1: calm here. What would you define a successful day for

336
00:19:56,520 --> 00:19:59,639
Speaker 1: these banks CEOs? A successful day for the seven banks

337
00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:03,000
Speaker 1: eato us that are testifying is that there's no headlines,

338
00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:05,639
Speaker 1: there's not many articles. By the time we get to

339
00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:07,960
Speaker 1: the weekend, there certainly will be a lot of press

340
00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:11,600
Speaker 1: on this today and tomorrow. But make no mistakes. So

341
00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:16,320
Speaker 1: it's one misspoken word or one dad answer that could

342
00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:19,080
Speaker 1: be really damaging the reputation. Where do you think they

343
00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:22,240
Speaker 1: might be most exposed. Is it diversity and hiring, is

344
00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:24,600
Speaker 1: it lending? Is it compensation? Where do you think they're

345
00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:27,800
Speaker 1: most exposed? Well, I think compensation is an issue not

346
00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:30,680
Speaker 1: when banks perform well, but when they don't perform well,

347
00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:33,840
Speaker 1: because that gives a perception of a system that's not fair.

348
00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:36,639
Speaker 1: And so we published a report about the Estate Street

349
00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:40,160
Speaker 1: CEO over the last nine years made a hundred fifteen

350
00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:44,600
Speaker 1: million dollars even when their primary target got worse, not better.

351
00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:50,600
Speaker 1: Its predecessor. It's predecessor, So you know this, But this

352
00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:53,080
Speaker 1: is the realm. This should be the realm of shareholders.

353
00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:57,000
Speaker 1: So you know nature abhors a vacuum wash and DC

354
00:20:57,160 --> 00:21:01,080
Speaker 1: loves one. So if shareholders don't step in and control compensation,

355
00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:04,160
Speaker 1: then it's an invitation for Congress to say something about it. Okay,

356
00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:05,800
Speaker 1: we got in a couple of gun number of minutes

357
00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:07,600
Speaker 1: before this. We're gonna go back to David Solomon of

358
00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:09,680
Speaker 1: goldn Sex here when he steps in. But Michael Mayo,

359
00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:12,639
Speaker 1: this is critical and this goes back to you for

360
00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:15,240
Speaker 1: you know you you were Jackson, it was a bank

361
00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:18,600
Speaker 1: of the United States. When you begin securities analysis, right,

362
00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:22,320
Speaker 1: I mean, it's always a tension of Washington in the

363
00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:25,400
Speaker 1: mean capitalist New York City banks that this goes back

364
00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:28,639
Speaker 1: to Jape Moore, goes back to Jefferson. I would suggest

365
00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:32,159
Speaker 1: as well, that's never going to change. So what is

366
00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:37,040
Speaker 1: Mr Corbett through Mr Solomon alphabetically, what's their best outcome

367
00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:40,760
Speaker 1: today knowing it's never gonna change. Well, you know, I

368
00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:44,720
Speaker 1: think Jamie Diamonds, uh, you know, ceol in the Any

369
00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:47,520
Speaker 1: report just came out last week, sums it up. He goes,

370
00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:50,560
Speaker 1: Sometimes the job of a banker is to not be

371
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:53,639
Speaker 1: liked because you need to say no sometimes. And you

372
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:58,520
Speaker 1: know what when Congress people say, you know, make more loans, well,

373
00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:02,679
Speaker 1: lending is an output, an outcome, not a decision. You

374
00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:04,080
Speaker 1: can make as many loans as you want, and that

375
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:06,840
Speaker 1: got us into the subprime crisis for sure. So I

376
00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:10,560
Speaker 1: think it's just a matter of it's a natural sometimes

377
00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:12,920
Speaker 1: a healthy tension. You don't want banks learning too much

378
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:15,359
Speaker 1: because then you do, indeed have a financial crisis. I

379
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:18,280
Speaker 1: was surprised Paula didn't mention the number of construction workers

380
00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:20,680
Speaker 1: that are going to tear down and rebuild the Palace.

381
00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:24,600
Speaker 1: I mean I looked it up. The Ocean Bay apartments

382
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:26,840
Speaker 1: or whatever in Rockaway Beach and there it is on

383
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:30,119
Speaker 1: Google is is is. One of the bankers mentioned that

384
00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 1: as well, Paul, So, Michael, do you think that, I

385
00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 1: mean again, post financial crisis, a big layer of regulatory

386
00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:39,320
Speaker 1: oversight came up to the global banking industry, the US

387
00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:41,520
Speaker 1: banking industry. Do you feel like we're at a point

388
00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:44,160
Speaker 1: now where they can start pushing back and saying, listen,

389
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:46,040
Speaker 1: we the system is much safer now, we can pull

390
00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:48,359
Speaker 1: back some of those regulations off of the cities and

391
00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:50,960
Speaker 1: the JP Morgan's or do you think the CEOs don't

392
00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 1: even want to go there? Well, I don't. I think

393
00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:55,040
Speaker 1: you're the way you phrased it, pushing back. I don't

394
00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:59,119
Speaker 1: like that phrase. I think preserve the safety and soundness

395
00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:01,040
Speaker 1: of the banking into stree. It's stronger than it's been

396
00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:05,040
Speaker 1: in decades. Having said that, you know, improve the efficiency

397
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:08,679
Speaker 1: of regulation, improve the transparency of regulations, improve the effectiveness

398
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:11,560
Speaker 1: of regulations. Regulators did a great job. Regulators should take

399
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:13,600
Speaker 1: a victory laugh. But now it's time for a look

400
00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:16,480
Speaker 1: back and say, hey, can we have this effectiveness of

401
00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:19,480
Speaker 1: regulation better? How did the new mergers fold into this

402
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 1: BB and T and whatever? I mean? They were beginning

403
00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 1: to see what you've predicted for years, and you know

404
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:28,359
Speaker 1: those of your ILK insecurities analysis, they're all gonna fold up.

405
00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:31,600
Speaker 1: They're gonna roll up. Not Canada like, but the big

406
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:33,560
Speaker 1: banks are gonna get bigger in America just because they

407
00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:36,159
Speaker 1: get the technology technological edge. Don't think well here in

408
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:39,520
Speaker 1: the tenure anniversary of the financial crisis, and the immediate

409
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:42,119
Speaker 1: catalyst for banks getting better, it was banks, you know,

410
00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:45,480
Speaker 1: pretty much almost failing, and then banks got much bigger

411
00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:47,960
Speaker 1: before they were really equipped for that size. In the

412
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:51,600
Speaker 1: last couple of years, you're seeing now that Goliath is winning.

413
00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:55,000
Speaker 1: The largest banks have become more efficient and generating more

414
00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:58,159
Speaker 1: deposits because of the scale of technology. So if you

415
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:00,359
Speaker 1: if you can't beat them, join them. And you had

416
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:02,639
Speaker 1: the B B and T and and SunTrust merger. The

417
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:05,400
Speaker 1: first reason the game was gave was to get better

418
00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:08,640
Speaker 1: economies from technology. Soldier with us today, Michael Mayo, where

419
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 1: us with Wells Fargo. They are not in attendance today.

420
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:13,719
Speaker 1: Of course, we wouldn't want Mr Mayo to comment on

421
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 1: Wells Fargo executive policies and such. We're listening to bankers

422
00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:22,399
Speaker 1: of eight banks, including State Street and Bank of New

423
00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:25,920
Speaker 1: York Melon as well. We await Mr Solomon of Golden Sex, Paul,

424
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:28,959
Speaker 1: when you try to squeeze in one more question, extinguished

425
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:32,120
Speaker 1: Mayo exactly, and Michael's seen this come and go many

426
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:34,919
Speaker 1: cycles to the banking sector. Is there risk now that

427
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:37,920
Speaker 1: we have a more progressive part of the Democratic Party

428
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:41,199
Speaker 1: in the House, Now, does that increase the risk for

429
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:44,920
Speaker 1: more regulation on the banks? Not less? Well, the importance

430
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:47,440
Speaker 1: of the hearing today by the seven CEO s is,

431
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:52,639
Speaker 1: you know, sound bites can turn into policy, ideas can

432
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 1: turn into presidential agendas, can turn into legislation, which turns

433
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:58,640
Speaker 1: into regulation. So this might be a preview of what's

434
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:02,280
Speaker 1: to come during next year residential election. And beyond dumb question,

435
00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:07,080
Speaker 1: is President Trump pro big bank? You know that was

436
00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:11,480
Speaker 1: a very tribal question you just asked. You know, I'm serious,

437
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 1: Like it's almost tribal now either four big banks, you're

438
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 1: against big banks? And can we just be pragmatic whatever

439
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:21,479
Speaker 1: best for the economic system is what we should support. Okay,

440
00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:23,760
Speaker 1: Mike bo with us with Wells Fargo. We're honor to

441
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:27,560
Speaker 1: have them with us. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg

442
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

443
00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:38,120
Speaker 1: or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at

444
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:42,440
Speaker 1: Tom Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide.

445
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:43,960
Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio